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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am

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Speaker 1: Eastern on Apple, Coarclay, and Android Auto with the Bloomberg

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Speaker 2: Looking at Deer, they reported numbers guidance a little bit

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Speaker 2: weaker than expected, but it's still up about eleven twelve

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Speaker 2: percent year to dates. Checking Chris Chiolino Bloomberg Intelligence, he

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Speaker 2: covers all the big machinery companies. Chris, what's the takeaway

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Speaker 2: from from Deer today? They called out the US farmers

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Speaker 2: facing some economic challenges here that guess that's impacting their businesses?

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Speaker 2: Would you learn?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, listen, I mean this really wasn't a particularly great quarter.

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Speaker 3: Three key results were mixed at best. It was really

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Speaker 3: a low quality earnings beat, primarily driven by a lower

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Speaker 3: tax rate. And as you alluded to, they did cut

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Speaker 3: their twenty to twenty five guidance. But to be honest,

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Speaker 3: I don't think that really changes the investment thesis here.

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Speaker 3: You know, we still expect earnings to bottom this year.

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Speaker 3: We're still looking at a very you know, gradual recovery.

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Speaker 3: As twenty twenty six unfolds, the reduction in the outlook

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Speaker 3: was really driven by weakness in their construction business, and

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Speaker 3: it appears to us that it was really more of

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Speaker 3: a function of some of the higher tariffs and costs

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Speaker 3: coming through. We knew that construction forestry was really going

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Speaker 3: to bear the brunt of the tariff impact, but this

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Speaker 3: court just came in, you know, a little bit more

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Speaker 3: of a headwind than we anticipated. It doesn't appear to

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Speaker 3: be that there's been much of a change in terms

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Speaker 3: of you know, farm fundamentals and their appetite to go

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Speaker 3: out and buy equipment.

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Speaker 4: Hey, Chrich, can you get more into the struggle that

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Speaker 4: that farmers are facing. That's that's impacting dear.

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Speaker 3: Sure, you know, we've been in this kind of prolonged

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Speaker 3: downturn in the ag economy. Crop prices continued to deteriorate,

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Speaker 3: farm fundamentals remain weak, interest rates remain high. We have

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Speaker 3: the you know, the overhanger, the uncertainty around the trade

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Speaker 3: environment and export market access. Really there's really no signs

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Speaker 3: or i would you know, say, green shoots yet that

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Speaker 3: we're at this inflection point. I think the positive takeaway

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Speaker 3: is that you know, inventories are coming down, Deer's not

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Speaker 3: going to have to massively underproduce retail demand next year.

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Speaker 3: So even if we're looking at a flatish type of

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Speaker 3: environment in terms of underlying retail demand, we're still looking

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Speaker 3: at probably higher production and some pricing coming through, which

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Speaker 3: should still generate some operating leverage in the business.

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Speaker 2: So, Chris, when demand is down from for their core

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Speaker 2: farm equipment, what does Deer typically do? Do they let

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Speaker 2: inventories build, do they get promotional to move inventory out

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Speaker 2: the door? How did they usually manage that?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so this is it's a delicate balancing act, right,

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Speaker 3: I mean, it's almost impossible to time the cycle. And

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Speaker 3: what they've been doing, you know, for the better part

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Speaker 3: of this year, and even at the end of last

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Speaker 3: year they had been underproducing retail demand to bring down

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Speaker 3: those elevated inventories. They've done really a commendable job on

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Speaker 3: new equipment. Issue right now is still on the used

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Speaker 3: equipment inventory side, particularly on tractors, which are still quite elevated.

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Speaker 3: And you're right, they are allocating more merchandising programs and

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Speaker 3: pool funds to help address that issue and move the equipment.

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Speaker 3: And I think you see that partly reflected in their

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Speaker 3: production precision agg business this quarter, and pricing actually flip negative,

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Speaker 3: which was a surprise to us. It does appear that

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Speaker 3: this is you know, relatively transitory. We should expect pricing

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Speaker 3: to bounce back next quarter. But yeah, it's been a

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Speaker 3: you know, they've done a real good job of managing inventories.

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Speaker 3: It's just you know, when you're slogging along through the

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Speaker 3: bottom of the cycle here, it does become quite challenging.

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Speaker 4: So then I got to follo up, are you still

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Speaker 4: cautious about the pace of their recovery?

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Speaker 3: Yes, you know, I would say signs of recovery are

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Speaker 3: still you know, pretty elusive to us. And if you

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Speaker 3: just look over the last couple of months, you know,

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Speaker 3: you continue to see further downward pressure on crop prices,

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Speaker 3: which at the end of the day is one of

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Speaker 3: the bigger drivers of deer's business and farmer cash receipts.

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Speaker 3: We had a pretty ugly Wady report this week. You know,

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Speaker 3: it looks like we're going to get another year of

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Speaker 3: record corn production, so those stockpiles continue to build, which

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Speaker 3: is really going to keep you know, somewhat of a

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Speaker 3: stealing on crop prices here in the near term. So

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Speaker 3: we think this recovery is going to look much more

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Speaker 3: modest or subdued than what we typically see during a

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Speaker 3: normal cycle. Right now, we're still anticipating you know, a

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Speaker 3: modest you know, flat to up five percent next year

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Speaker 3: in terms of underlying retail demand for lar Jag, particularly

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Speaker 3: in North America.

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Speaker 2: Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live

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Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarclay, and Android Auto

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Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you

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Speaker 1: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 4: Let's go to earnings. We want to talk about Cisco Systems.

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Speaker 4: So you had sales from its AI projects, right they're

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Speaker 4: beginning to pick up. But the problem was that it's

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Speaker 4: forecast for the current fiscal year. Well it was a

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Speaker 4: little bit on the concern side, and that didn't Investors

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Speaker 4: didn't like that very much. Let's find out why. So

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Speaker 4: let's go to wou Jinhoi's Bloomberg Intelligence. Senior technology analysts

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Speaker 4: joining us from Princeton. Wujin, thanks for joining us. I

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Speaker 4: got to ask you right after the bad What did

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Speaker 4: investors did? They just think that they should be benefiting

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Speaker 4: more from AI spending? What was the issue?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I think a couple of things. AI wasn't one

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Speaker 5: of them. But also there's a big product refresh cycle

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Speaker 5: that investors were hoping would drive better growth. But at

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Speaker 5: the end of the day, the guidance was a reminder

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Speaker 5: that they are still tied to IT spending. And you know,

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Speaker 5: I viewed it as more as prudent conservatism because they

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Speaker 5: don't know what's happening on the second half.

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Speaker 2: Of the year.

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Speaker 5: Given where we are, you know, we have little visibility

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Speaker 5: in terms of rates as well as tire Still.

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Speaker 2: So the company recognized about one billion dollars in AI

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Speaker 2: revenue on fiscal twenty twenty five, and I guess AI

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Speaker 2: infrastructure orders for large from large cloud of providers whoever

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Speaker 2: eight hundred million in the quarter. So where do you

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Speaker 2: think these numbers can go?

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Speaker 5: Yeah? Look, Paul, they forecasted a billion dollars in orders

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Speaker 5: for fiscal twenty five. They double that if fiscal twenty

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Speaker 5: six recognize the billion of it this year, I wouldn't

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Speaker 5: be surprised if AI revenues grow at least another fifty

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Speaker 5: percent from here, and they're penetrating multiple pockets right not

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Speaker 5: only into the cloud. But if you think about a

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Speaker 5: longer term, when enterprise adoption really starts kicking in, there

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Speaker 5: is going to be a growth driver.

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Speaker 1: So we have to.

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Speaker 5: See where it'll be in twenty six and twenty seven

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Speaker 5: when enterprise grows. But the partnership with then video should

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Speaker 5: be beneficial to the longer term.

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Speaker 4: What AI sector? Is it just to competitive? I mean,

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Speaker 4: who are some of their peers, how are they doing

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Speaker 4: against them?

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Speaker 5: Well, if we think about it, well, they have multiple

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Speaker 5: they're in AI in multiple vectors right, So from a

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Speaker 5: networking space, Arista is one of the bigger competitors, as

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Speaker 5: well as a smaller company called Celestica from They also

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Speaker 5: they're also very very big on optical components and they're

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Speaker 5: coming up against companies like Marvel as well as Siena.

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Speaker 5: And they also provide AI servers and think about Dell

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Speaker 5: and HPE. So look, is it competitive, yes, but they're

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Speaker 5: one of the few American vendors that can actually supply

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Speaker 5: components all the way to the system hardware.

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Speaker 2: Oh what what are companies like Cisco and and Dell

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Speaker 2: and some other big American companies throughout the tech stack chain.

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Speaker 2: What are they saying just about the environment in terms

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Speaker 2: of demand from their customers? Are they sensing waning demand

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Speaker 2: or wavering demand? Just to see how some of these

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Speaker 2: I don't know, TIFFs other economic policies may work out.

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Speaker 5: Sure, Paul, you know Cisco is one of the first

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Speaker 5: hardware belt wathers that that came out. I will tell

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Speaker 5: you from from the numbers that I've seen on the

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Speaker 5: companies that have reported, uh, you know, the I spending

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Speaker 5: of vironment has actually been more resilient than I had thought.

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Speaker 5: I went into the quarter with my mediar outlook as

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Speaker 5: being a little bit cautious and negative, and quite frankly,

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Speaker 5: the results have come in better than I had anticipated.

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Speaker 5: The outlooks have come in better than I anticipated. But

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Speaker 5: the fact of the matter is I don't know what's

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Speaker 5: going to happen past December, and I think the Cisco's

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Speaker 5: guidance reflect that we'll have a better sense in a

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Speaker 5: couple of weeks from now. When companies like Dell and

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Speaker 5: then HPE after Labor Day when they report.

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Speaker 4: Did they talk about their guidance at all about the impacts?

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Speaker 4: We mentioned tariff quickly, but did the impact of tariffs.

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Speaker 4: If so, like, did they intend to how do they

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Speaker 4: intend to lessen that impact from tariffs?

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Speaker 5: You know, you know, Cisco has been probably one of

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Speaker 5: the better companies in terms of managing expectations of tariffs

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Speaker 5: as well as maneuvering the supply chain with the tariff.

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Speaker 5: So in terms of managing expectations, they embedded tariff impact

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Speaker 5: in their guidance. And because tariffs came in a little

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Speaker 5: bit lower than we had anticipated, that actually helped the

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Speaker 5: EPs just a little bit going forward. You know, all

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Speaker 5: of the guidance includes the tariff impact. Now, the one

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Speaker 5: thing I will add, we're still waiting for the semiconductive

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Speaker 5: rulings as it relates to Section two three to two.

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Speaker 5: We'll see where it stands. If we do have a

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Speaker 5: negative ruling there, that could not only affect Cisco's guidance

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Speaker 5: and margins, but also the rest of the electronics space.

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Speaker 2: So I'm looking at the stock would Cisco that is,

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Speaker 2: and it's up about eighteen percent year to date, so

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Speaker 2: certainly being in the market, and I look at the

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Speaker 2: A and R function, I see sixteen buys, ten holds,

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Speaker 2: and one sell. So kind of a little bit of

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Speaker 2: a split up there on the street. In terms of expectations,

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Speaker 2: what do you think the bold cases for Cisco from

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Speaker 2: these levels?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, the bowl case is fairly easy, Paul. Faster than

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Speaker 5: five percent to six percent growth driven by the product

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Speaker 5: reforst cycle security as a driver for Cisco, that's going

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Speaker 5: to raise multiples. And if it's going to raise multiples,

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Speaker 5: it's gonna you have a higher stock from where it

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Speaker 5: is today.

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Speaker 4: So Chuck Robin, Cisco CEO, is gonna be speaking with

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Speaker 4: BTV anchors Ed Ludlow Karen Hide just after eleven o'clock.

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Speaker 4: So if you were in that room, what would you ask?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, what I would ask is when does a security

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Speaker 5: story really start to take hold where it does affect

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Speaker 5: the growth positively?

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Speaker 2: Right?

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Speaker 5: Security offers a faster hardware growth as well as software growth,

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Speaker 5: as well as a high margin recurring revenues. So it's

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Speaker 5: a security it's turning into security.

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Speaker 2: At the end of the day, Stay with us. More

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Speaker 2: from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live

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Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto

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Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you

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Speaker 1: get your podcasts or watch US live on YouTube.

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Speaker 4: All right, we shift from the markets to tech, and

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Speaker 4: some have suggested that President Trump's novel export arrangement with

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Speaker 4: Nvidia AMD paying the US government fifteen percent of revenue

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Speaker 4: from some chip sales in China, Well, it could violate

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Speaker 4: federal law. And if it did, what would happen? That

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Speaker 4: is the question of the latest article on the terminal.

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Speaker 4: You have to check it out. Matthew Shuttlin is Bloomberg

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Speaker 4: Intelligence media litigation analyst. Matthew first question right off the

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Speaker 4: bat is does.

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Speaker 6: It Yeah, it does it violate the law? It's an

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Speaker 6: interesting question that I don't think people had.

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Speaker 2: Thought about for a while.

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Speaker 6: But there is this clause in the twenty eighteen Export

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Speaker 6: Control Reform Act that says that no fees can be

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Speaker 6: charged for the processing of these export control licenses. There's

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Speaker 6: also a clause in the US Constitution going way back

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Speaker 6: that says that taxes cannot be levy against articles exported

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Speaker 6: from US states. You put those two things together and

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Speaker 6: you start to see, you know, some serious questions that

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Speaker 6: could be raised about whether imposing a fifteen percent effective

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Speaker 6: tax on exports is actually legal or not. Now, no

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Speaker 6: lawsuits have been filed yet, and there would be some

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Speaker 6: hurdles to filing them, But I think there is a

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Speaker 6: very plausible legal case that could be made.

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Speaker 2: If a lawsuit were to be filed, Who would do it?

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Speaker 2: What entity would do that?

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Speaker 6: Yeah, so that's a great question. I mean, if you're

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Speaker 6: in Nvidia or AMD, I don't think you want to

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Speaker 6: run right into court after you negotiated a deal with

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Speaker 6: President Trump and challenge it there. And so I think

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Speaker 6: you would see a potential lawsuit come from from a

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Speaker 6: trade association that's concerned about the potential for this setting

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Speaker 6: a precedent that goes forward after these particular deals. You

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Speaker 6: could also envision shareholders of the companies who are upset

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Speaker 6: about the company agreeing to something that might be inconsistent

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Speaker 6: with federal law potentially filing lawsuits as well.

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Speaker 4: And I like, we keep saying if this sword happ

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Speaker 4: and yes, what would be the timeline for something like this?

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Speaker 6: Yeah, so it's hard to say exactly. We don't we

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Speaker 6: haven't seen the final agreements here between Nvidia and AMD,

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Speaker 6: and just a couple of days ago, the White House

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Speaker 6: said that they were the Commerce Department was still exploring

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Speaker 6: the legality of how to do this, probably because they're

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Speaker 6: looking at this precise statute we're talking about here. So

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Speaker 6: timing's very much in flux for all of this, and

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Speaker 6: it's going to be a question of whether we see

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Speaker 6: this sort of approach going forward. But lawsuits could be

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Speaker 6: filed any time. They would be filed in in federal

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Speaker 6: district district courts. Probably you would seek injunctions trying to

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Speaker 6: stop the imposition of these taxes, and it could be

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Speaker 6: litigated up through the court system from there.

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Speaker 2: But I mean to be clear, were agreed to by

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Speaker 2: the companies and the government. I guess the companies met.

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Speaker 2: The companies are just saying, hey, this is just the

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Speaker 2: cost to do business in this country with this administration.

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Speaker 2: Is that kind of think they were.

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Speaker 6: I think that's exactly it, and I think there would

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Speaker 6: be hurdles to these companies suing for that reason. I

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Speaker 6: suspect these agreements are going to include waivers of their

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Speaker 6: particular right to sue. And it's better to access these

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Speaker 6: markets than, you know, to not access the markets at all,

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Speaker 6: even if it comes at a fifteen percent price tag.

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Speaker 2: Now, this whole.

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Speaker 4: Deal, it started to fuel some concern that the government

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Speaker 4: could charge companies for a range of business activities with

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Speaker 4: other countries. I mean, is that a viable concern? And

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Speaker 4: then what questions could that bring up in the meantime?

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Speaker 6: Yeah, that is really I think the big question here

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Speaker 6: is is this a one off or is this how

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Speaker 6: how this administration is going to operate for all exports

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Speaker 6: going forward? And if it's it's the latter, I think

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Speaker 6: that raises much much bigger concerns. Usually you would look

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Speaker 6: to Congress to set the standards here, and there is,

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Speaker 6: as I said, a statute that says no fees for

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Speaker 6: the processing of these export licenses. And so in a

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Speaker 6: typical world you would see Congress, you know, explore maybe

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Speaker 6: setting the legality of something like this. But right now

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Speaker 6: we have a law from seven years ago that may

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Speaker 6: or may not be be challenged.

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Speaker 2: Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live

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Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto

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Speaker 2: Right here's the story my eyes went to immediately this

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Speaker 2: morning when I came in US and Canadian banks are

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Speaker 2: summoning staffers back to their offices at a faster rate

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Speaker 2: than European rivals. That was very interesting, and we've got

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Speaker 2: lots of good data in their charts and stuff like that,

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Speaker 2: But to me, it just went right to the difference

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Speaker 2: between the US and Europe is it relates to banking

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Speaker 2: and investment banking, where it just seems like the US

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Speaker 2: banks have just dominated. And I know there's a lot

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Speaker 2: of reasons why structurally, but this one just feels like

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Speaker 2: a part of it. So we want to get right

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Speaker 2: into it now. Tom Metcalf, finance editor for Blow News.

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Speaker 2: He's in our London office. Tom, what do you guys

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Speaker 2: find are are American bankers really coming back more to

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Speaker 2: the office more frequently than the Europeans.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, it's a very very clear trend actually. So what

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Speaker 7: we did went back looked at the biggest fifteen US

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Speaker 7: and Canadian banks and then also the biggest fifteen European

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Speaker 7: and the split basically simpers flies down to is about

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Speaker 7: three days a week in Europe compared to four days

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Speaker 7: a week in the US. And of course in the

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Speaker 7: US has a lot of very notable examples who are

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Speaker 7: back fully to five days, right, the JP Morgan's, the Goldmans.

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Speaker 7: So I think it's been a really interesting split, and

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Speaker 7: like you say, it's it's kind of part and part

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Speaker 7: sort of this divergence really between particularly the US banks

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Speaker 7: and europe in that, you know, one of the theories

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Speaker 7: going out there's lots of reasons why this is happening,

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Speaker 7: but certainly one analyst was saying, you know, one element

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Speaker 7: is the fact US banks are just that much more

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Speaker 7: profitable and thus they sort of have almost like a

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Speaker 7: little bit more leverage over their employees to effectively go no,

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Speaker 7: it's going to be our way or the highway, is

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Speaker 7: what Mike Mayo told us. But as you say, it's

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Speaker 7: one of those stories where you know, I think anecdotally

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Speaker 7: that was the kind of clearly the sense, but it

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Speaker 7: was quite startling to see it kind of you know,

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Speaker 7: when you really dive into the day to go, oh, yes,

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Speaker 7: it's really basically almost two different strategies, with broadly speaking,

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Speaker 7: the Europeans kind of viewing it as a almost like

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Speaker 7: employee retention tool and US banks going we don't care.

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Speaker 7: We think the most efficient way to work is in

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Speaker 7: the office. You're coming back in, Well, you're.

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Speaker 4: Kind of leading to it. I wanted to ask Tom,

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Speaker 4: is this a cultural thing? Is this also playing a factor?

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Speaker 7: Yeah, and there's obviously no one size fits all, right,

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Speaker 7: but like broadly speaking, a little bit more of that,

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Speaker 7: you know, go attitude, et cetera, say Goldman, Whereas the

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Speaker 7: European banks, you know, structurally there's more retail banks in

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Speaker 7: that space, or certainly investment banks. The capital markets is

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Speaker 7: a bit smaller part of their business. So certainly a

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Speaker 7: bunch of different things flowing through here. And you know what,

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Speaker 7: the other interesting thing was the academic research we took

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Speaker 7: a look at the same time, is not out there

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Speaker 7: going if you bring everyone back to the office, you

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Speaker 7: necessarily get better stock market performance or even better financial performance.

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Speaker 7: So it's very much I think cultural is probably what's

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Speaker 7: drive in this. You know, the tone from the top.

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Speaker 7: You know, someone like a Jamie Diamond, probably the most

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Speaker 7: outspoken executive on this, very very keen to have everyone

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Speaker 7: back in the office. And then on the flip side,

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Speaker 7: Bill Winters here, who runs Standard Chartered, he's literally taken

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Speaker 7: the opposite tone, so he's just effectively going, look, we

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Speaker 7: believe our employees can make the right decision for their

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Speaker 7: particular teams, and we will. And you know, standard charters

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Speaker 7: are a fascinating example of everyone we spoke to. They

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Speaker 7: basically said they don't even have a specific mandate at all.

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Speaker 7: They just truly are sort of decentralizing this and just

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Speaker 7: telling people that there's no policy, just make sure you

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Speaker 7: do what to write for you.

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Speaker 2: Wow, that's interesting, and I wonder I'm hearing stories that

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Speaker 2: you know, back to work schedules and requirements maybe used

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Speaker 2: as a recruiting tool to attract and retain talent. Ie

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Speaker 2: City group. I know Jane Fraser, the CEO is there

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Speaker 2: is she thinks it's a recruiting tool for City because

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Speaker 2: they're only at three day mandate. Are other banks thinking

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Speaker 2: that way.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, exactly. It goes to like it's not like kind

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Speaker 7: of a universal monolith here, Like you go through the

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Speaker 7: US banks and there's a bunch of an art in

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Speaker 7: and City is probably maybe the most interesting example because

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Speaker 7: as you say, it's got that, you know, it's going

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Speaker 7: through a big restruction and as part of that, it's

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Speaker 7: offering a bit of flexibility to its employees. Some people think,

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Speaker 7: because you know, that helps retain talent, who might otherwise,

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Speaker 7: you know, look further afield, but they can go, well, look,

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Speaker 7: if I'm at city, I get way more flexibility. It

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Speaker 7: fits my lifestyle, or it gives me that ability to

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Speaker 7: work from most places. So it's really fascinating and I

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Speaker 7: think you kind of almost have to go case by case,

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Speaker 7: but broadly speaking, still, if you're looking at a US bank,

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Speaker 7: you can expect a little bit more strictness around artio.

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Speaker 4: Hey, Tom, before you go, is there anything that surprised

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Speaker 4: you when you were doing this research where you were like,

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Speaker 4: I didn't know that.

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Speaker 2: I didn't think that was possible.

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Speaker 7: I think the biggest thing was like, how has it

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Speaker 7: been five years since?

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Speaker 1: You know?

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Speaker 7: I was just like, I didn't realize there's been half

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Speaker 7: a decade already. And I think, I mean, look, I

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Speaker 7: think that's the sense of you know, this is still

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Speaker 7: very much a work in progress. And I remember writing

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Speaker 7: about it, you know, during the pandemic and beyond, it

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Speaker 7: was very much felt to be this kind of big

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Speaker 7: philosophical debate about you know, the future of work, and

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Speaker 7: you know, I don't think anyone's actually reached a satisfactory argument.

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Speaker 7: I think basic answer, Sorry, I think basically banks have

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Speaker 7: settled into kind of where you think they would. Of course,

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Speaker 7: a JP more than Goldman are basically knowing that was

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Speaker 7: all nonsense. Let's come back and you know, I guess

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Speaker 7: in some ways, it's just that the firms are living

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Speaker 7: up to their stereotypes, right like you know, it's kind

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Speaker 7: of a classic. We're in August in Europe. Guess what,

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Speaker 7: everyone's working from home and stuff like that.

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