Speaker 1: The Volume.
Speaker 2: All right, welcome to Hoops Tonight here at the Volume,
Speaker 2: Happy Monday, everybody. Coverage of the Conference Finals here at
Speaker 2: Hoops Tonight is brought to you by Chase Freedom Unlimited.
Speaker 2: How do you cast back? All right, today, we're going
Speaker 2: to be doing our series preview for the Western Conference
Speaker 2: Finals between the Lakers and the Nuggets. Also, keep an
Speaker 2: eye on the feeds either later tonight or early tomorrow morning.
Speaker 2: I'll be recording it here shortly. I'm just not sure
Speaker 2: when they're going to release it, but we'll have an
Speaker 2: Eastern Conference Finals preview as well, breaking down the heat
Speaker 2: and the Celtics. You guys know the drip before we
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Speaker 2: wherever you get your podcasts. Under Hoops Tonight, all right,
Speaker 2: let's talk some basketball. So, just like we usually do,
Speaker 2: we're gonna do our series notes where I just talk
Speaker 2: about a couple of the background pieces of information. Then
Speaker 2: we're gonna do our Chase three points segment where we
Speaker 2: go over the three biggest matchups that I'm looking at
Speaker 2: in this particular series. At the end of that, I'll
Speaker 2: go over a couple of quick hitters. I'll pick who
Speaker 2: I think is gonna win and make the case for
Speaker 2: the other team. So the Nuggets right now are minus
Speaker 2: one sixty five favorite. That's not insubstantial, so Vegas clearly
Speaker 2: used them as the slightly better team. The season series
Speaker 2: was two to two. The home team won every single game,
Speaker 2: and all four games were January ninth or earlier, so
Speaker 2: none of the trade deadline pieces involved the games that
Speaker 2: the Lakers beat the Nuggets. One in particular, Anthony Davis
Speaker 2: was out. They went small, they were running up and
Speaker 2: down the flour crazy in transition. The other one they
Speaker 2: won with Anthony Davis, was also a great transition effort,
Speaker 2: because they had lost a game early in this seaar
Speaker 2: with bad transition defense. Hard to sift through that too
Speaker 2: much because that sort of thing plays a much bigger
Speaker 2: role in the regular season than it does in the postseason.
Speaker 2: But I'm gonna try to zoom in on some specific
Speaker 2: matchups to try to get a better feel for where
Speaker 2: I see this series going. The Nuggets do have home
Speaker 2: court advantage, which is significant. The Denver home court advantage
Speaker 2: is statistically more impactful than any other home court advantage
Speaker 2: in the NBA. That's been proven over many, many years.
Speaker 2: And they're playing every other day now, which is I
Speaker 2: think an advantage to Denver in particular, just with the
Speaker 2: wear and tear on Lebron James and Anthony Davis, especially
Speaker 2: since their size won't be an issue. I thought the
Speaker 2: Lakers actually wore down the Warriors despite their age, but
Speaker 2: I think a big part of that was down the roster.
Speaker 2: The Warriors were giving up physical advantages, and you have
Speaker 2: to make up for a lack of size by playing harder,
Speaker 2: and it's just really difficult to do that every other night,
Speaker 2: all right. So these are our chase three points. Number One,
Speaker 2: can Nikola Yoki force the Lakers to consistently send multiple
Speaker 2: defenders towards him in the Anthony Davis matchup? So, the
Speaker 2: two most common play types logged by Nikola Jokic so
Speaker 2: far in this postseason are as you could probably guess,
Speaker 2: pick and roll rollman possessions and post ups. Post ups
Speaker 2: are actually number one, and pick and roll roll man
Speaker 2: possessions are number two. Anthony Davis is the best defensive
Speaker 2: player in the world, and we all saw just the
Speaker 2: latest example of that against the Golden State Warriors in
Speaker 2: the last round. As after Steph Curry ripped through the
Speaker 2: entire league last year in the postseason and then ripped
Speaker 2: through the Sacramento Kings in Round one, he had his
Speaker 2: least efficient playoff series since the twenty nineteen second round
Speaker 2: series against the Houston Rockets. So for all the Nuggets
Speaker 2: fans out there talking about how great Jokic is and
Speaker 2: how great the Nuggets offenses, I agree with you guys
Speaker 2: about those things. But guess what if there's one guy
Speaker 2: that you could say is probably a better offensive engine
Speaker 2: than Nikola Jokic. If there's one guy, it's Steph Curry.
Speaker 2: And if you think Jokic is number one, the guy
Speaker 2: you're saying number two is Steph Curry. And there certainly
Speaker 2: isn't much of a gap there. Everything that you're thinking
Speaker 2: about Jokic and the way he can warp a defense
Speaker 2: and the problems he can cause for teams, the same
Speaker 2: could be said for Steph Curry, and the Lakers held
Speaker 2: him to his least efficient series since twenty nineteen and
Speaker 2: held the Warriors significantly below their regular season offensive rating
Speaker 2: had six halves I believe, or they held them under
Speaker 2: fifty points and a half. It was a dominant defensive effort,
Speaker 2: So we are we have to at least consider the
Speaker 2: possibility that Anthony Davis could have a similar impact on
Speaker 2: this Denver Nuggets team. Now, this Denver Nuggets team does
Speaker 2: have I believe more aggregate offensive talent than the Warriors.
Speaker 2: That goes without saying, so I would absolutely say that
Speaker 2: this is a better offense overall than the Warriors. So
Speaker 2: it will definitely be a challenge. But this will also
Speaker 2: be the weakest defense that the Lakers have faced so
Speaker 2: far in this postseason, after facing the defensive player of
Speaker 2: the Year and the third ranked third ranked defense during
Speaker 2: the regular season in the Memphis Grizzlies, and a Warriors
Speaker 2: defense that wasn't as good as they were last year
Speaker 2: statistically but had the same core players that they had
Speaker 2: when they were the number two ranked defense and won
Speaker 2: the championship last year with Raymond Green and Andrew Wiggins
Speaker 2: and Gary Payton the second and despite all of that,
Speaker 2: they still finished ahead of the Denver Nuggets in regular
Speaker 2: season defensive ratings, so there's no doubt that strictly from
Speaker 2: the standpoint of defensive personnel, the Lakers are facing an
Speaker 2: easier matchup than they face in a long time, which
Speaker 2: makes it difficult to predict. But we're gonna do the
Speaker 2: best that we can. So as we zoom in on
Speaker 2: the post up possessions and the pick and roll possessions,
Speaker 2: to me, it comes down to can the Lakers consistently
Speaker 2: play those actions two on two or one on one?
Speaker 2: So in the post, can Anthony Davis guard Jokics without
Speaker 2: too much help? It's one thing to you know, kind
Speaker 2: of gap down and kind of stunked at the basketball.
Speaker 2: It's another thing to hard double. Right, If Anthony Davis
Speaker 2: can get away with never having to hard double on
Speaker 2: the Jokis post ups, that means they can guard it
Speaker 2: one on one. In pick and roll. You can have
Speaker 2: your shell drill and guys can be ready to help
Speaker 2: when they need to. But if you can guard the
Speaker 2: Denver Nuggets two on two in pick and roll, that
Speaker 2: goes a long way towards your ability to stop them.
Speaker 2: Why because as you go down the roster. Contavious Carwell Pope,
Speaker 2: Michael Porter Junior, Aaron Gordon, Christian Brown, Bruce Brown, those guys,
Speaker 2: Jeff Green, those are all guys that's pretty much that
Speaker 2: plus Jamal Murray is basically the rotation that they shrunk
Speaker 2: down to there over the course of the Sun series.
Speaker 2: All of those guys are guys that are capable of
Speaker 2: making plays against closeout situations. Right, so when the defense
Speaker 2: is already warped, you know, Michael Porter Junior's best spot
Speaker 2: up player in the league this year. Contavius Callwell, Pope,
Speaker 2: I've said before, is one of my favorite role player
Speaker 2: two guards in the entire NBA. Loved rooting for that
Speaker 2: dude when he was a Laker. Christian Brown and his
Speaker 2: athleticism in transition, and he can make plays cutting out
Speaker 2: of the weekside corner occasionally knocked down in corner three.
Speaker 2: Bruce Brown can run, pick and roll, run dribble handoffs,
Speaker 2: he can get out and transition. Jeff Green obviously has
Speaker 2: been a solid role player in the NBA playoffs for
Speaker 2: a half decade now. All those guys are great, but
Speaker 2: in a set defense situation, they're not guys that are
Speaker 2: gonna consistently beat you attack like set defenders with help
Speaker 2: behind like they need advantage situations. So everything comes down
Speaker 2: to Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray and their ability to
Speaker 2: bring in multiple defenders. Jamal Murray is an excellent player,
Speaker 2: and he's gonna do some mismatch hunting against Lakers guards.
Speaker 2: He was doing that a lot against Landry Shamant in
Speaker 2: the last round. You're gonna see him try to pick
Speaker 2: on Austin Reeve, and try to pick on d Angelo Russell,
Speaker 2: and try to pick on Dennis Schroeder. They'll clear the
Speaker 2: side and just let him post up on the block
Speaker 2: by himself. He's gonna do some of that, and he's
Speaker 2: going to knock down some pull up jump shots in
Speaker 2: the dribble, handoff and pick and roll situations. With Nikola
Speaker 2: jokicch there's no doubt that there's gonna be a good
Speaker 2: percentage of that in this series. The difference is, though,
Speaker 2: is that that's not the type of player that's going
Speaker 2: to monumentally dominate and change the geometry of the series
Speaker 2: in terms of the tactics the way that is Steph
Speaker 2: Curry does. He's just not that level of player, and
Speaker 2: I would imagine that Darvin Ham and his scouting reports
Speaker 2: are like, hey, obviously the Sun's guards aren't as good
Speaker 2: as us. Defensively, he lit them up. If we can
Speaker 2: hold him to a point per game average in the
Speaker 2: series on twenty shots per game, twenty two shots per game,
Speaker 2: where his efficiency isn't quite where it needs to be,
Speaker 2: I think that the Lakers would be happy with that,
Speaker 2: especially if they can guard those actions two on two
Speaker 2: and not have to overhelp on the weak side. I
Speaker 2: think their biggest concern is giving up the wide open
Speaker 2: shit the guys like Michael Porter Junior and things along
Speaker 2: those lines. So again, down the roster, there is talent
Speaker 2: there and it's a really good fit, but fundamentally it
Speaker 2: depends on Nikolay jokicch and his ability to warp the defense.
Speaker 2: So if Anthony Davis, as a pick and roll an
Speaker 2: inverted pick and roll defender, can protect the rim and
Speaker 2: not concede too much pull up jump shooting and in
Speaker 2: isolation or post up situations, if he can contain Yokic
Speaker 2: on an island, that goes a long way to giving
Speaker 2: the Lakers an advantage down the roster, especially as we
Speaker 2: go down the roster for the Lakers roster, and you're
Speaker 2: getting Lebron James and Austin Reeves right like you're you're
Speaker 2: actually getting higher level players from the Lakers down the
Speaker 2: roster again, and this will be a theme as we
Speaker 2: get to our predictions. But if Denver wants to win,
Speaker 2: Nikola Jokic needs to soundly outplay Anthony Davis, which is
Speaker 2: certainly on the table. But Steph freaking Curry the defending
Speaker 2: finals MVP just got outplayed by Anthony Davis based on
Speaker 2: what he could do on the defensive end of the floor.
Speaker 2: So don't sleep on Anthony Davis's ability to win that matchup.
Speaker 2: He is capable. Let's start at the post for starters.
Speaker 2: So Nikol Jokicic does have the ability to dislodge Anthony Davis.
Speaker 2: He's got a high center of gravity. When I went
Speaker 2: back and watched all the post up possessions, and there
Speaker 2: are a ton of them, But when I went back
Speaker 2: and watched all the post up possessions with Yokic on
Speaker 2: ad this year, he did do a decent job of
Speaker 2: bumping into his getting to his spots and bumping him
Speaker 2: off of his base and making those little hook shots
Speaker 2: and floaters and things in the lane. But Anthony Davis
Speaker 2: did on a handful of possessions bother him with his length.
Speaker 2: Foul trouble in particular is going to be a big
Speaker 2: factor in this series. Dwight Howard in twenty twenty spent
Speaker 2: a good portion of the series guarding Nikola Jokich. They
Speaker 2: got to split fouls. Dwight could be super aggressive. He
Speaker 2: could pick up three four fouls a game, and it
Speaker 2: was all just kind of part of the game plan
Speaker 2: to try to frustrate Jokic. That's not a factor anymore.
Speaker 2: There's not a soul on the Lakers roster that has
Speaker 2: a hope in hell of guarding Nikola Jokic except for
Speaker 2: Anthony Davis. So it's important, But that same factor plays
Speaker 2: the other way. The Lakers are one of the very
Speaker 2: best teams in the league at drawing fouls. Now, I
Speaker 2: will say Denver is much better at defending without fouling
Speaker 2: than Golden State was, so I don't expect to see
Speaker 2: the same type of free throw disparity that we did
Speaker 2: in the Golden State series. But the Lakers are good
Speaker 2: at drawing fouls, so foul trouble for Nikola jokis foul
Speaker 2: trouble for Anthony Davis. Those are gonna be big factors
Speaker 2: in this series. That said it, with ad post up
Speaker 2: defense against Jokic, I think that favors Denver early in
Speaker 2: the series, but it'll favor La later in the series.
Speaker 2: I think that Ad is too smart and too physically
Speaker 2: gifted not to eventually figure out a way to slow
Speaker 2: down Jokic in the post. But don't be surprised if
Speaker 2: early in the series, when Ady doesn't quite have a
Speaker 2: feel for him yet, if Jokic has a lot of
Speaker 2: success in the post. Looking at pick and roll, it's
Speaker 2: a similar concept to what they were doing to the Warriors, right,
Speaker 2: Like you're gonna try to chase over the top of
Speaker 2: the screens with Ad and some kind of drop coverage.
Speaker 2: He probably won't be as high up as they were
Speaker 2: against the Warriors because they were more They were more
Speaker 2: willing to give up roleman possessions to the Warriors than
Speaker 2: they will be to Jokis. Because Jokic is, in my opinion,
Speaker 2: the best roleman in the league and shoots seventy percent
Speaker 2: and all those stupid push shots and floaters on the
Speaker 2: short roll, right, So my guess is it's going to
Speaker 2: be a deeper drop, which means it's going to be
Speaker 2: a higher responsibility on the guards for the Lakers to
Speaker 2: chase over the top of those screens, which they did
Speaker 2: a decent job of in the last round, and most importantly,
Speaker 2: trying to contain Klay Thompson and Steph Curry coming over
Speaker 2: the top of those screens. Is a different type of
Speaker 2: challenge than Jamal Murray and KCP. Jamal Murray's great pull
Speaker 2: up jump shooter, but just not in the same stratosphere
Speaker 2: as Steph Curry and CACP is a different type of
Speaker 2: player than Klay Thompson, So it's it's definitely going to
Speaker 2: be a different type of coverage, but it's going to
Speaker 2: be the same concept Anthony Davis trying to dissuade those
Speaker 2: pull up jump shots as best as he can while
Speaker 2: staying back to protect the rim, namely because of Jokic
Speaker 2: on the roll and the guards chasing over the top
Speaker 2: of the screen. The other thing you saw in twenty
Speaker 2: twenty is at one point late in the series, in
Speaker 2: Game four, they ended up putting Lebron on Jamal Murray
Speaker 2: and Anthony Davis on Nikola Jokic so they could switch
Speaker 2: the Murray Jokic pick and roll, and Denver ended up
Speaker 2: countering that by just trying to isole Lebron with Jamal Murray.
Speaker 2: And some of you guys might remember Lebron blocking Jamal
Speaker 2: Murray a couple times, enforcing a couple misses at the
Speaker 2: rim in that game four wins. So Lebron again, He's
Speaker 2: gonna be older now and not as mobile, but he's
Speaker 2: had a really good defensive postseason, especially when he's been engaged,
Speaker 2: So that might be another wrinkle the Lakers could go
Speaker 2: to is just put Lebron on Jamal Murray, switch the
Speaker 2: Jokich Murray pick and roll. Now, who's gonna win that matchup?
Speaker 2: That's gonna be the dynamic of the series, in my opinion.
Speaker 2: If the Nuggets are playing two on three in pick
Speaker 2: and roll and one on two in post up situations,
Speaker 2: too many high quality shots from too good of a
Speaker 2: passer in Jokic on the back end, they're gonna get picked. Apart,
Speaker 2: if Jokic and Murray can be contained two on two
Speaker 2: by the Lakers in one on one in the post
Speaker 2: in the Yokjad matchup, I think they're gonna be able
Speaker 2: to slow down the Nuggets offense enough for them to
Speaker 2: succeed on the other end. That to me is the
Speaker 2: dynamic of the series and whoever wins that specific matchup
Speaker 2: as by far the best chance to win the series.
Speaker 2: Number two, can Lebron James pick apart the Nuggets in
Speaker 2: pick and roll? So I talked about this a little
Speaker 2: bit with Colin Coward yesterday, but the big difference in
Speaker 2: this series for the Lakers compared to the previous two
Speaker 2: rounds of the defensive matchups. Right, I actually think Aaron
Speaker 2: Gordon is a better matchup for Lebron than either of
Speaker 2: the last two guys that Lebron faced consistently. So he
Speaker 2: was seen a lot of Dylan Brooks and Xavier Tillman
Speaker 2: in the first round, and Xavier Tillman was big enough,
Speaker 2: but he wasn't fast enough, and Lebron ended up beating
Speaker 2: him off the dribble when he needed to, namely at
Speaker 2: the end of Game four, Right, and then Dylan Brooks,
Speaker 2: he could just post him up or bully him whenever
Speaker 2: he absolutely needed to in that series. But Dylan Brooks
Speaker 2: was a very good switchable wing defender, and Jaren Jackson
Speaker 2: on Anthony Davis, they could just switch that action, So
Speaker 2: the Lebron Anthony Davis pick and roll was kind of
Speaker 2: useless in that round, and as a result, they had
Speaker 2: to attack switches, which really bates Lebron and Anthony Davis
Speaker 2: into their worst tendencies, which is to settle for jump
Speaker 2: shots and to not apply enough rim pressure. Right, same
Speaker 2: dynamic against the Warriors with Raymond Green on Anthony Davis
Speaker 2: and Andrew Wiggins on Lebron James. They're switching the Lebron
Speaker 2: ad pick and roll most of the time and as
Speaker 2: a result, you lose that advantage. Now it's the same thing. Stagnation.
Speaker 2: Got to try to generate offense against their switches, or hell,
Speaker 2: just give the ball to the guards and see if
Speaker 2: they can do it. Since the Warriors were running drop
Speaker 2: coverage against the Laker guards. But that dynamic is going
Speaker 2: to be completely different in this series. Even though Aaron
Speaker 2: Gordon is a much better matchup for Lebron James just
Speaker 2: because he's bigger and stronger than Wiggins and Dylan Brooks are,
Speaker 2: so he can hold up a little bit better in
Speaker 2: the post. That's all good, and I think that bodes
Speaker 2: well for Denver in the series. In isolation situations, and in
Speaker 2: post up situations, but in pick and roll in particular,
Speaker 2: I think that the Nuggets are going to be in
Speaker 2: some trouble on a couple of different fronts. So and
Speaker 2: this is why I'm considering this the Lebron James series
Speaker 2: on the offensive end of the floor. So on film,
Speaker 2: what I noticed in the footage at the beginning of
Speaker 2: the year. Now it's important to note that they were
Speaker 2: this was before the deadline. So it's a lot of
Speaker 2: Patrick Beverlely on the weak side. It's a lot of
Speaker 2: Troy Brown Junior on the week side. It's a lot
Speaker 2: of Kendrick Nunn back when he couldn't make a damn shot,
Speaker 2: and so the Nuggets were really loading up. But it
Speaker 2: was very similar to the Phoenix Sun's coverage. It was
Speaker 2: kind of yokicchen a high drop up near the level
Speaker 2: of the screen, Aaron Gordon chasing over the top, and
Speaker 2: almost all three other defenders have a foot in the
Speaker 2: paint except for maybe in the strong side corner right,
Speaker 2: and so those skip passes are open. It's very similar
Speaker 2: to what they did to Phoenix. And I thought I
Speaker 2: was talking with Matt Moore this morning. Actually i'd go
Speaker 2: to his twitter feed. I'm sure he'll have the link
Speaker 2: because we got pretty deep into this series. He's a
Speaker 2: big guy covers the Nuggets, big Nuggets optimist, and yeah,
Speaker 2: I was asking him. I was like, do you think
Speaker 2: that Phoenix left some meat on the bone as it
Speaker 2: pertains to the Nuggets pick and roll coverage with how
Speaker 2: hard they were loading up?
Speaker 1: And he said yes.
Speaker 2: He was like, Devin Booker and Kevin Durant too frequently
Speaker 2: missed the skip pass to the weakside corner. Guess what,
Speaker 2: that's the best thing that Lebron does in pick and
Speaker 2: roll is make those skip passes on the dime because
Speaker 2: he's one of the better jump passers in the league.
Speaker 2: Throws everything on a rope, on time, on target in
Speaker 2: the shooting pocket, and those are gonna be That's gonna
Speaker 2: be a lot of Austin Reeves on the weak side.
Speaker 2: He's shooting forty four percent on catch and shoot threes
Speaker 2: in this postseason run. Dangelo Russell on the weak side,
Speaker 2: He's shooting thirty nine percent on catch and shoot threes
Speaker 2: in this postseason run. Ruy Hatcha Mura on the weak
Speaker 2: side fifty three percent on catch and shoot threes in
Speaker 2: this postseason run, Lonnie Walker on the weak side thirty
Speaker 2: eight percent on catch and shoot threes in this postseason run.
Speaker 2: So there's gonna be much more dependable weak side shooters
Speaker 2: than what they had during the regular season, and that
Speaker 2: coverage is gonna leave some openings for Lebron. What I
Speaker 2: like about it the most for Lebron's sake is it
Speaker 2: implicates his brain more than it does his body. So
Speaker 2: when they're switching pick and roll, Lebron has a bully
Speaker 2: smaller defenders right, Whereas if in a drop coverage he's
Speaker 2: getting downhill by the by virtue of the coverage, all
Speaker 2: he has to do is set Aaron Gordon up for
Speaker 2: the screen than Aaron Gordon's behind him. So now he's
Speaker 2: going downhill naturally as part of the coverage, which puts
Speaker 2: the onus on his brain to make the necessary reads
Speaker 2: as opposed to switching coverage bonuses on his body. And
Speaker 2: so a lot of times Lebron would get really passive
Speaker 2: for long stretches offensively over the last two series, in
Speaker 2: large part because he's just trying to conserve his energy.
Speaker 2: He can actually conserve his energy as a playmaker and
Speaker 2: high pick and roll against the Nuggets. I think that's
Speaker 2: a significant advantage. Another thing I think you'll see a
Speaker 2: lot of is what Lebron did towards the end of
Speaker 2: the Warriors series, which is picking on the smaller Nuggets
Speaker 2: players in pick and roll. So instead of the Lebron
Speaker 2: Anthony Davis pick and roll, what if it's trying to
Speaker 2: target Jamal Murray, Contavious Cabble, Pope and Michael Porter, Junior,
Speaker 2: Bruce Brown and Christian Brown and switches just like he
Speaker 2: did down the stretch to Klay Thompson, Jordan Poole, Steph Curry,
Speaker 2: Andrew Wiggins, even in straight ISOs or straight post ups.
Speaker 2: But Lebron would sit at the top of the key,
Speaker 2: call the defender that he wants into the action. Say
Speaker 2: it's Steph Curry and Lonnie Walker's on him right. So
Speaker 2: Lonnie Walker's gonna set like a ghost screen basically and
Speaker 2: funnel off to the left side on the wing, and
Speaker 2: Steph is going to try to hedge and recover or
Speaker 2: he might end up having to switch onto le and Lebron.
Speaker 2: What he would do is just hard kind of take
Speaker 2: a banana driving route along the right side of the
Speaker 2: floor around the hedge and either he would get downhill
Speaker 2: because the hedger would allow Lebron to kind of turn
Speaker 2: the corner or he would get the switch that he wanted.
Speaker 2: And if he got the switch that he wanted, once
Speaker 2: he kind of took that banana route, he would turn
Speaker 2: and then he would start posting up right and then
Speaker 2: he would start trying to bully that smaller defender to
Speaker 2: whatever spot he needed to do. And like again, that
Speaker 2: one's really energy consuming for Lebron. So it's more of
Speaker 2: a late series thing or a late game thing. But
Speaker 2: Lebron attacked Moses Moody. Lebron attacked Dante DiVincenzo, he attacked
Speaker 2: Steph Curry, Clay Thompson, Jordan pul Like. He was relentless
Speaker 2: attacking the Warriors smaller defenders towards the end of that series.
Speaker 2: Don't be surprised if you see a lot of that
Speaker 2: against the Denver Nuggets to try to take advantage of
Speaker 2: his size there over the course of the series. Number three,
Speaker 2: who will win the Battle of the bench. So both
Speaker 2: teams law a backup center. And this in particular is
Speaker 2: very interesting to me because over the course of this postseason,
Speaker 2: Lebron's plus minus numbers have not been very good. And
Speaker 2: a big part of that or is on off numbers,
Speaker 2: I should say, and a big part of that is
Speaker 2: because the Lakers don't have a backup center. And one
Speaker 2: of the things that Taylor Jenkins did with the Memphis
Speaker 2: Grizzlies is he staggered. He flipped Jared Jackson's rotation. Jared
Speaker 2: Jackson during the regular season was on Anthony Davis's rotation.
Speaker 2: He switched it up because Darvin ham wasn't switching his
Speaker 2: rotation to make sure Jared Jackson was on the floor
Speaker 2: for all of the Laker bench group minutes.
Speaker 1: And they were really struggled with that.
Speaker 2: That Laker bench group really struggled with Jaron Jackson at center,
Speaker 2: keeping him off the glass and keeping him away from
Speaker 2: the rim. And like four of the six games that
Speaker 2: there were a couple of games where the Lakers held
Speaker 2: up okay, but for the most part, they struggled.
Speaker 1: In that group.
Speaker 2: Same thing for the Warriors. Kevon Looney's out there and
Speaker 2: just destroying Ruy Hatcha Murran the glass. They couldn't get
Speaker 2: a damn defensive rebound to save their lives. Excuse me.
Speaker 2: So that bench group has been an issue for the
Speaker 2: Lakers throughout the postseason.
Speaker 1: Well.
Speaker 2: Denver also has a similar issue with their bench group.
Speaker 2: They don't have a backup center. They don't have enough
Speaker 2: shot creation or defense in that lineup. That is a
Speaker 2: big advantage to Lebron in my opinion, and mean in
Speaker 2: large part just because Lebron James could not impact winning
Speaker 2: enough with the size disadvantage in those groups. He's gonna
Speaker 2: be by far the best player on the floor in
Speaker 2: these bench groups without having to worry about the physical mismatches.
Speaker 2: Ruy Hatchamura is gonna be able to hang just fine
Speaker 2: in that group as a kind of a small ball
Speaker 2: five defensive rebounder type compared to the way he did
Speaker 2: against Kevon Looney and Jaron Jackson. So I actually really
Speaker 2: like the bench matchup for the Lakers in this series
Speaker 2: after it was a problem in the previous two rounds.
Speaker 2: A couple of quick hitters guard play Ken Bruce Brown,
Speaker 2: Contavio's Coldwell Pope and Jamal Murray outplay Dennis Schroeder, Austin
Speaker 2: Reeves and D'Angelo Russell. Who's going to provide better shot
Speaker 2: making in defense?
Speaker 1: Right now?
Speaker 2: I give this a slight advantage to Denver because Jamal
Speaker 2: Murray's the best player in that group, but it's a
Speaker 2: little bit more tricky than that because Lebron James is
Speaker 2: kind of more of a comp to Murray as that
Speaker 2: secondary star. But it's strictly looking at guard play. Big
Speaker 2: sign for the Lakers would be if Schroeder, Reeves and
Speaker 2: Dangel Russell can play to a stalemate with Murray, KCP
Speaker 2: and Brown can can the Lakers play their forwards?
Speaker 1: This is a big one.
Speaker 2: So Hotcher Murr and Jared Vanderbilt both kind of exited
Speaker 2: the rotation, not.
Speaker 1: Entirely, but their roles got shrunk.
Speaker 2: And the Warriors series why too much helping off Jared
Speaker 2: Vanderbilt was screwing up their offense and on the offense,
Speaker 2: on the defensive end of the floor, Ruy hatch Mura
Speaker 2: was struggling with screen navigation and Denver in particular, and
Speaker 2: this is a I talk about this a lot on
Speaker 2: the show, but Lock and Trailing is a lot about
Speaker 2: low center of gravity and avoiding screens right, and Ruey's
Speaker 2: just got a high center of gravity. He's easy to
Speaker 2: set screens on, so it can be an issue for him.
Speaker 2: This series is gonna have some similar stuff Michael Porter
Speaker 2: Junior runs a lot of off screen action. Contavious called
Speaker 2: what Pope runs a lot of off screen action. If
Speaker 2: Ruey ends up in one of those matchups, he could
Speaker 2: be in a situation where where he could struggle. I
Speaker 2: think Ruiy's gonna have to play when Lebron's off the floor,
Speaker 2: so he can guard Aaron Gordon as much as possible
Speaker 2: or Jeff Green someone like that, so he can kind
Speaker 2: of be more to help situation and be a on
Speaker 2: the rim as a defender, rim protector and defensive rebounder.
Speaker 2: But the Lakers need their their forwards to be an
Speaker 2: effective defensive rebounding team. He saw that a lot against
Speaker 2: the Warriors where they ended up going small and then
Speaker 2: they gave up twelve offensive rebounds in the first half
Speaker 2: because you've got three guards on the floor and Lebron
Speaker 2: James and Anthony Davis have to do so much physically
Speaker 2: to overcome that. So can the Lakers forwards play big minutes.
Speaker 2: That's going to be another one, last, but not least transition.
Speaker 2: I mentioned this at the start of the show, but
Speaker 2: Jokic knows how to punish a d when he's lazy.
Speaker 2: He sees when he's on the floor and he sees
Speaker 2: when he's bitching at the refs, and he sprints and
Speaker 2: tries to get a cross match in a quick post seal.
Speaker 2: He also can beat the Lakers in transition with outlet passes,
Speaker 2: So Biggs running the floor, particularly Ad that's going to
Speaker 2: be a big one in this series as well. My
Speaker 2: three points were brought to you by Chase Freedom Unlimited.
Speaker 2: Earn five percent on travel purchased or Chase three percent
Speaker 2: on dining including takeout, three percent on drug stores, and
Speaker 2: one point five percent on everything else. How do you
Speaker 2: cash back? So my prediction, I'm picking the Lakers and
Speaker 2: six games. I think Anthony Davis will significantly hamper Denver's defense,
Speaker 2: just like he did every other offense he's faced in
Speaker 2: this postseason. Golden State was a top ten offense in
Speaker 2: the regular season. They had a one to fifteen point
Speaker 2: one offensive raiding in the regular season. The Lakers held
Speaker 2: him to one ten point two. The Grizzlies were eleventh
Speaker 2: in offense. They had a one fourteen point seven offensive
Speaker 2: raiding in the regular season. The Lakers held them to
Speaker 2: one oh two point eight, so utterly stifled their offense. Again,
Speaker 2: this is the better offense than either of the two
Speaker 2: they faced. But just like I said with Steph Curry,
Speaker 2: you'd be foolish to think that Anthony Davis can't have
Speaker 2: a similar impact on Jokic, at least to some extent.
Speaker 2: I also think this will be by far the easiest
Speaker 2: defensive match up the Lakers have faced so far in
Speaker 2: the postseason. Memphis was the number three regular season defense.
Speaker 2: We talked about all defense defender on Lebron and Dylan Brooks,
Speaker 2: and then the defensive Player of the Year guarding Anthony
Speaker 2: Davis Golden State. You've got the best defensive player this
Speaker 2: era and Draymond Green guarding Anthony Davis. And you've got
Speaker 2: Andrew Wiggins, who I said after last year's postseason might
Speaker 2: be the best perimeter defender in basketball, guarding Lebron James.
Speaker 2: And they just have better personnel, right, Both of those
Speaker 2: teams just have better defensive personnel than what Denver brings
Speaker 2: to the table. That puts a lot of onus on
Speaker 2: Lebron James to be the offensive maestro that he's capable
Speaker 2: of being, and I think he's got to dominate that
Speaker 2: end of the floor. To me, it's Lebron's series. Offensively,
Speaker 2: it's Anthony Davis's series Defensively. If Nikola Jokic can defend
Speaker 2: well enough to slow down Lebron on offense, and if
Speaker 2: he can punish Anthony Davis enough on the other end
Speaker 2: of the floor, I think the Nuggets can win. But
Speaker 2: I believe the Lakers will win those matchups at least
Speaker 2: to some extent. So I am picking the Lakers in six.
Speaker 2: Denver's path to victory, it's pretty simple. Jokic has to
Speaker 2: dominate a d If he does enforce his consistent help
Speaker 2: or gets Anthony Davis in foul trouble, I think this
Speaker 2: could be over quick. As a matter of fact, if
Speaker 2: Denver wins this series, I think it'd be in five games.
Speaker 2: I think they would win games one and two, be
Speaker 2: two to zero, steal one in LA to make it
Speaker 2: three to one, and then close out the series in five.
Speaker 2: So picking the Lakers in six wouldn't be the least
Speaker 2: bit surprised if Denver one have a ton of respect
Speaker 2: for those guys. I'm riding with the Lakers right now.
Speaker 2: I think they're a much better defensive team, and I
Speaker 2: think they're capable of picking apart this Nuggets team enough
Speaker 2: to advance. All Right, guys, that's all I have for today.
Speaker 1: We'll be back. We will be back shortly with our
Speaker 1: Eastern Conference finals. The volume