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Speaker 1: The Volume.

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Speaker 2: All right, welcome to Hoops Tonight here at the Volume,

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Speaker 2: Happy Monday, everybody. Coverage of the Conference Finals here at

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Speaker 2: Hoops Tonight is brought to you by Chase Freedom Unlimited.

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Speaker 2: How do you cast back? All right, today, we're going

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Speaker 2: to be doing our series preview for the Western Conference

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Speaker 2: Finals between the Lakers and the Nuggets. Also, keep an

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Speaker 2: eye on the feeds either later tonight or early tomorrow morning.

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Speaker 2: I'll be recording it here shortly. I'm just not sure

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Speaker 2: when they're going to release it, but we'll have an

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Speaker 2: Eastern Conference Finals preview as well, breaking down the heat

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Speaker 2: and the Celtics. You guys know the drip before we

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Speaker 2: get started. Subscribe to the Volumes YouTube channel so you

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Speaker 2: don't miss any more of our videos. Follow me on

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Speaker 2: Twitter at Underscore Jason lt so you guys don't miss

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Speaker 2: any show announcements. And for whatever reason, you guys miss

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Speaker 2: one of these shows and you can't get back over

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Speaker 2: to YouTube to finish, don't forget. You can find them

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Speaker 2: wherever you get your podcasts. Under Hoops Tonight, all right,

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Speaker 2: let's talk some basketball. So, just like we usually do,

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Speaker 2: we're gonna do our series notes where I just talk

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Speaker 2: about a couple of the background pieces of information. Then

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Speaker 2: we're gonna do our Chase three points segment where we

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Speaker 2: go over the three biggest matchups that I'm looking at

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Speaker 2: in this particular series. At the end of that, I'll

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Speaker 2: go over a couple of quick hitters. I'll pick who

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Speaker 2: I think is gonna win and make the case for

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Speaker 2: the other team. So the Nuggets right now are minus

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Speaker 2: one sixty five favorite. That's not insubstantial, so Vegas clearly

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Speaker 2: used them as the slightly better team. The season series

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Speaker 2: was two to two. The home team won every single game,

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Speaker 2: and all four games were January ninth or earlier, so

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Speaker 2: none of the trade deadline pieces involved the games that

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Speaker 2: the Lakers beat the Nuggets. One in particular, Anthony Davis

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Speaker 2: was out. They went small, they were running up and

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Speaker 2: down the flour crazy in transition. The other one they

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Speaker 2: won with Anthony Davis, was also a great transition effort,

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Speaker 2: because they had lost a game early in this seaar

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Speaker 2: with bad transition defense. Hard to sift through that too

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Speaker 2: much because that sort of thing plays a much bigger

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Speaker 2: role in the regular season than it does in the postseason.

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Speaker 2: But I'm gonna try to zoom in on some specific

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Speaker 2: matchups to try to get a better feel for where

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Speaker 2: I see this series going. The Nuggets do have home

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Speaker 2: court advantage, which is significant. The Denver home court advantage

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Speaker 2: is statistically more impactful than any other home court advantage

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Speaker 2: in the NBA. That's been proven over many, many years.

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Speaker 2: And they're playing every other day now, which is I

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Speaker 2: think an advantage to Denver in particular, just with the

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Speaker 2: wear and tear on Lebron James and Anthony Davis, especially

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Speaker 2: since their size won't be an issue. I thought the

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Speaker 2: Lakers actually wore down the Warriors despite their age, but

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Speaker 2: I think a big part of that was down the roster.

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Speaker 2: The Warriors were giving up physical advantages, and you have

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Speaker 2: to make up for a lack of size by playing harder,

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Speaker 2: and it's just really difficult to do that every other night,

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Speaker 2: all right. So these are our chase three points. Number One,

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Speaker 2: can Nikola Yoki force the Lakers to consistently send multiple

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Speaker 2: defenders towards him in the Anthony Davis matchup? So, the

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Speaker 2: two most common play types logged by Nikola Jokic so

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Speaker 2: far in this postseason are as you could probably guess,

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Speaker 2: pick and roll rollman possessions and post ups. Post ups

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Speaker 2: are actually number one, and pick and roll roll man

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Speaker 2: possessions are number two. Anthony Davis is the best defensive

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Speaker 2: player in the world, and we all saw just the

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Speaker 2: latest example of that against the Golden State Warriors in

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Speaker 2: the last round. As after Steph Curry ripped through the

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Speaker 2: entire league last year in the postseason and then ripped

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Speaker 2: through the Sacramento Kings in Round one, he had his

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Speaker 2: least efficient playoff series since the twenty nineteen second round

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Speaker 2: series against the Houston Rockets. So for all the Nuggets

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Speaker 2: fans out there talking about how great Jokic is and

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Speaker 2: how great the Nuggets offenses, I agree with you guys

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Speaker 2: about those things. But guess what if there's one guy

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Speaker 2: that you could say is probably a better offensive engine

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Speaker 2: than Nikola Jokic. If there's one guy, it's Steph Curry.

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Speaker 2: And if you think Jokic is number one, the guy

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Speaker 2: you're saying number two is Steph Curry. And there certainly

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Speaker 2: isn't much of a gap there. Everything that you're thinking

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Speaker 2: about Jokic and the way he can warp a defense

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Speaker 2: and the problems he can cause for teams, the same

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Speaker 2: could be said for Steph Curry, and the Lakers held

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Speaker 2: him to his least efficient series since twenty nineteen and

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Speaker 2: held the Warriors significantly below their regular season offensive rating

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Speaker 2: had six halves I believe, or they held them under

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Speaker 2: fifty points and a half. It was a dominant defensive effort,

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Speaker 2: So we are we have to at least consider the

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Speaker 2: possibility that Anthony Davis could have a similar impact on

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Speaker 2: this Denver Nuggets team. Now, this Denver Nuggets team does

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Speaker 2: have I believe more aggregate offensive talent than the Warriors.

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Speaker 2: That goes without saying, so I would absolutely say that

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Speaker 2: this is a better offense overall than the Warriors. So

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Speaker 2: it will definitely be a challenge. But this will also

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Speaker 2: be the weakest defense that the Lakers have faced so

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Speaker 2: far in this postseason, after facing the defensive player of

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Speaker 2: the Year and the third ranked third ranked defense during

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Speaker 2: the regular season in the Memphis Grizzlies, and a Warriors

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Speaker 2: defense that wasn't as good as they were last year

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Speaker 2: statistically but had the same core players that they had

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Speaker 2: when they were the number two ranked defense and won

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Speaker 2: the championship last year with Raymond Green and Andrew Wiggins

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Speaker 2: and Gary Payton the second and despite all of that,

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Speaker 2: they still finished ahead of the Denver Nuggets in regular

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Speaker 2: season defensive ratings, so there's no doubt that strictly from

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Speaker 2: the standpoint of defensive personnel, the Lakers are facing an

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Speaker 2: easier matchup than they face in a long time, which

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Speaker 2: makes it difficult to predict. But we're gonna do the

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Speaker 2: best that we can. So as we zoom in on

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Speaker 2: the post up possessions and the pick and roll possessions,

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Speaker 2: to me, it comes down to can the Lakers consistently

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Speaker 2: play those actions two on two or one on one?

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Speaker 2: So in the post, can Anthony Davis guard Jokics without

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Speaker 2: too much help? It's one thing to you know, kind

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Speaker 2: of gap down and kind of stunked at the basketball.

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Speaker 2: It's another thing to hard double. Right, If Anthony Davis

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Speaker 2: can get away with never having to hard double on

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Speaker 2: the Jokis post ups, that means they can guard it

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Speaker 2: one on one. In pick and roll. You can have

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Speaker 2: your shell drill and guys can be ready to help

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Speaker 2: when they need to. But if you can guard the

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Speaker 2: Denver Nuggets two on two in pick and roll, that

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Speaker 2: goes a long way towards your ability to stop them.

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Speaker 2: Why because as you go down the roster. Contavious Carwell Pope,

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Speaker 2: Michael Porter Junior, Aaron Gordon, Christian Brown, Bruce Brown, those guys,

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Speaker 2: Jeff Green, those are all guys that's pretty much that

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Speaker 2: plus Jamal Murray is basically the rotation that they shrunk

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Speaker 2: down to there over the course of the Sun series.

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Speaker 2: All of those guys are guys that are capable of

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Speaker 2: making plays against closeout situations. Right, so when the defense

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Speaker 2: is already warped, you know, Michael Porter Junior's best spot

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Speaker 2: up player in the league this year. Contavius Callwell, Pope,

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Speaker 2: I've said before, is one of my favorite role player

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Speaker 2: two guards in the entire NBA. Loved rooting for that

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Speaker 2: dude when he was a Laker. Christian Brown and his

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Speaker 2: athleticism in transition, and he can make plays cutting out

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Speaker 2: of the weekside corner occasionally knocked down in corner three.

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Speaker 2: Bruce Brown can run, pick and roll, run dribble handoffs,

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Speaker 2: he can get out and transition. Jeff Green obviously has

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Speaker 2: been a solid role player in the NBA playoffs for

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Speaker 2: a half decade now. All those guys are great, but

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Speaker 2: in a set defense situation, they're not guys that are

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Speaker 2: gonna consistently beat you attack like set defenders with help

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Speaker 2: behind like they need advantage situations. So everything comes down

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Speaker 2: to Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray and their ability to

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Speaker 2: bring in multiple defenders. Jamal Murray is an excellent player,

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Speaker 2: and he's gonna do some mismatch hunting against Lakers guards.

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Speaker 2: He was doing that a lot against Landry Shamant in

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Speaker 2: the last round. You're gonna see him try to pick

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Speaker 2: on Austin Reeve, and try to pick on d Angelo Russell,

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Speaker 2: and try to pick on Dennis Schroeder. They'll clear the

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Speaker 2: side and just let him post up on the block

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Speaker 2: by himself. He's gonna do some of that, and he's

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Speaker 2: going to knock down some pull up jump shots in

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Speaker 2: the dribble, handoff and pick and roll situations. With Nikola

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Speaker 2: jokicch there's no doubt that there's gonna be a good

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Speaker 2: percentage of that in this series. The difference is, though,

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Speaker 2: is that that's not the type of player that's going

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Speaker 2: to monumentally dominate and change the geometry of the series

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Speaker 2: in terms of the tactics the way that is Steph

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Speaker 2: Curry does. He's just not that level of player, and

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Speaker 2: I would imagine that Darvin Ham and his scouting reports

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Speaker 2: are like, hey, obviously the Sun's guards aren't as good

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Speaker 2: as us. Defensively, he lit them up. If we can

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Speaker 2: hold him to a point per game average in the

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Speaker 2: series on twenty shots per game, twenty two shots per game,

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Speaker 2: where his efficiency isn't quite where it needs to be,

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Speaker 2: I think that the Lakers would be happy with that,

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Speaker 2: especially if they can guard those actions two on two

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Speaker 2: and not have to overhelp on the weak side. I

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Speaker 2: think their biggest concern is giving up the wide open

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Speaker 2: shit the guys like Michael Porter Junior and things along

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Speaker 2: those lines. So again, down the roster, there is talent

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Speaker 2: there and it's a really good fit, but fundamentally it

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Speaker 2: depends on Nikolay jokicch and his ability to warp the defense.

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Speaker 2: So if Anthony Davis, as a pick and roll an

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Speaker 2: inverted pick and roll defender, can protect the rim and

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Speaker 2: not concede too much pull up jump shooting and in

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Speaker 2: isolation or post up situations, if he can contain Yokic

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Speaker 2: on an island, that goes a long way to giving

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Speaker 2: the Lakers an advantage down the roster, especially as we

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Speaker 2: go down the roster for the Lakers roster, and you're

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Speaker 2: getting Lebron James and Austin Reeves right like you're you're

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Speaker 2: actually getting higher level players from the Lakers down the

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Speaker 2: roster again, and this will be a theme as we

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Speaker 2: get to our predictions. But if Denver wants to win,

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Speaker 2: Nikola Jokic needs to soundly outplay Anthony Davis, which is

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Speaker 2: certainly on the table. But Steph freaking Curry the defending

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Speaker 2: finals MVP just got outplayed by Anthony Davis based on

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Speaker 2: what he could do on the defensive end of the floor.

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Speaker 2: So don't sleep on Anthony Davis's ability to win that matchup.

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Speaker 2: He is capable. Let's start at the post for starters.

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Speaker 2: So Nikol Jokicic does have the ability to dislodge Anthony Davis.

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Speaker 2: He's got a high center of gravity. When I went

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Speaker 2: back and watched all the post up possessions, and there

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Speaker 2: are a ton of them, But when I went back

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Speaker 2: and watched all the post up possessions with Yokic on

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Speaker 2: ad this year, he did do a decent job of

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Speaker 2: bumping into his getting to his spots and bumping him

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Speaker 2: off of his base and making those little hook shots

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Speaker 2: and floaters and things in the lane. But Anthony Davis

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Speaker 2: did on a handful of possessions bother him with his length.

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Speaker 2: Foul trouble in particular is going to be a big

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Speaker 2: factor in this series. Dwight Howard in twenty twenty spent

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Speaker 2: a good portion of the series guarding Nikola Jokich. They

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Speaker 2: got to split fouls. Dwight could be super aggressive. He

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Speaker 2: could pick up three four fouls a game, and it

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Speaker 2: was all just kind of part of the game plan

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Speaker 2: to try to frustrate Jokic. That's not a factor anymore.

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Speaker 2: There's not a soul on the Lakers roster that has

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Speaker 2: a hope in hell of guarding Nikola Jokic except for

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Speaker 2: Anthony Davis. So it's important, But that same factor plays

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Speaker 2: the other way. The Lakers are one of the very

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Speaker 2: best teams in the league at drawing fouls. Now, I

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Speaker 2: will say Denver is much better at defending without fouling

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Speaker 2: than Golden State was, so I don't expect to see

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Speaker 2: the same type of free throw disparity that we did

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Speaker 2: in the Golden State series. But the Lakers are good

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Speaker 2: at drawing fouls, so foul trouble for Nikola jokis foul

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Speaker 2: trouble for Anthony Davis. Those are gonna be big factors

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Speaker 2: in this series. That said it, with ad post up

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Speaker 2: defense against Jokic, I think that favors Denver early in

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Speaker 2: the series, but it'll favor La later in the series.

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Speaker 2: I think that Ad is too smart and too physically

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Speaker 2: gifted not to eventually figure out a way to slow

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Speaker 2: down Jokic in the post. But don't be surprised if

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Speaker 2: early in the series, when Ady doesn't quite have a

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Speaker 2: feel for him yet, if Jokic has a lot of

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Speaker 2: success in the post. Looking at pick and roll, it's

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Speaker 2: a similar concept to what they were doing to the Warriors, right,

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Speaker 2: Like you're gonna try to chase over the top of

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Speaker 2: the screens with Ad and some kind of drop coverage.

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Speaker 2: He probably won't be as high up as they were

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Speaker 2: against the Warriors because they were more They were more

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Speaker 2: willing to give up roleman possessions to the Warriors than

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Speaker 2: they will be to Jokis. Because Jokic is, in my opinion,

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Speaker 2: the best roleman in the league and shoots seventy percent

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Speaker 2: and all those stupid push shots and floaters on the

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Speaker 2: short roll, right, So my guess is it's going to

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Speaker 2: be a deeper drop, which means it's going to be

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Speaker 2: a higher responsibility on the guards for the Lakers to

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Speaker 2: chase over the top of those screens, which they did

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Speaker 2: a decent job of in the last round, and most importantly,

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Speaker 2: trying to contain Klay Thompson and Steph Curry coming over

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Speaker 2: the top of those screens. Is a different type of

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Speaker 2: challenge than Jamal Murray and KCP. Jamal Murray's great pull

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Speaker 2: up jump shooter, but just not in the same stratosphere

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Speaker 2: as Steph Curry and CACP is a different type of

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Speaker 2: player than Klay Thompson, So it's it's definitely going to

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Speaker 2: be a different type of coverage, but it's going to

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Speaker 2: be the same concept Anthony Davis trying to dissuade those

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Speaker 2: pull up jump shots as best as he can while

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Speaker 2: staying back to protect the rim, namely because of Jokic

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Speaker 2: on the roll and the guards chasing over the top

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Speaker 2: of the screen. The other thing you saw in twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty is at one point late in the series, in

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Speaker 2: Game four, they ended up putting Lebron on Jamal Murray

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Speaker 2: and Anthony Davis on Nikola Jokic so they could switch

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Speaker 2: the Murray Jokic pick and roll, and Denver ended up

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Speaker 2: countering that by just trying to isole Lebron with Jamal Murray.

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Speaker 2: And some of you guys might remember Lebron blocking Jamal

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Speaker 2: Murray a couple times, enforcing a couple misses at the

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Speaker 2: rim in that game four wins. So Lebron again, He's

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Speaker 2: gonna be older now and not as mobile, but he's

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Speaker 2: had a really good defensive postseason, especially when he's been engaged,

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Speaker 2: So that might be another wrinkle the Lakers could go

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Speaker 2: to is just put Lebron on Jamal Murray, switch the

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Speaker 2: Jokich Murray pick and roll. Now, who's gonna win that matchup?

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Speaker 2: That's gonna be the dynamic of the series, in my opinion.

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Speaker 2: If the Nuggets are playing two on three in pick

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Speaker 2: and roll and one on two in post up situations,

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Speaker 2: too many high quality shots from too good of a

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Speaker 2: passer in Jokic on the back end, they're gonna get picked. Apart,

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Speaker 2: if Jokic and Murray can be contained two on two

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Speaker 2: by the Lakers in one on one in the post

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Speaker 2: in the Yokjad matchup, I think they're gonna be able

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Speaker 2: to slow down the Nuggets offense enough for them to

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Speaker 2: succeed on the other end. That to me is the

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Speaker 2: dynamic of the series and whoever wins that specific matchup

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Speaker 2: as by far the best chance to win the series.

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Speaker 2: Number two, can Lebron James pick apart the Nuggets in

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Speaker 2: pick and roll? So I talked about this a little

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Speaker 2: bit with Colin Coward yesterday, but the big difference in

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Speaker 2: this series for the Lakers compared to the previous two

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Speaker 2: rounds of the defensive matchups. Right, I actually think Aaron

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Speaker 2: Gordon is a better matchup for Lebron than either of

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Speaker 2: the last two guys that Lebron faced consistently. So he

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Speaker 2: was seen a lot of Dylan Brooks and Xavier Tillman

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Speaker 2: in the first round, and Xavier Tillman was big enough,

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Speaker 2: but he wasn't fast enough, and Lebron ended up beating

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Speaker 2: him off the dribble when he needed to, namely at

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Speaker 2: the end of Game four, Right, and then Dylan Brooks,

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Speaker 2: he could just post him up or bully him whenever

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Speaker 2: he absolutely needed to in that series. But Dylan Brooks

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Speaker 2: was a very good switchable wing defender, and Jaren Jackson

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Speaker 2: on Anthony Davis, they could just switch that action, So

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Speaker 2: the Lebron Anthony Davis pick and roll was kind of

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Speaker 2: useless in that round, and as a result, they had

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Speaker 2: to attack switches, which really bates Lebron and Anthony Davis

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Speaker 2: into their worst tendencies, which is to settle for jump

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Speaker 2: shots and to not apply enough rim pressure. Right, same

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Speaker 2: dynamic against the Warriors with Raymond Green on Anthony Davis

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Speaker 2: and Andrew Wiggins on Lebron James. They're switching the Lebron

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Speaker 2: ad pick and roll most of the time and as

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Speaker 2: a result, you lose that advantage. Now it's the same thing. Stagnation.

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Speaker 2: Got to try to generate offense against their switches, or hell,

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Speaker 2: just give the ball to the guards and see if

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Speaker 2: they can do it. Since the Warriors were running drop

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Speaker 2: coverage against the Laker guards. But that dynamic is going

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Speaker 2: to be completely different in this series. Even though Aaron

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Speaker 2: Gordon is a much better matchup for Lebron James just

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Speaker 2: because he's bigger and stronger than Wiggins and Dylan Brooks are,

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Speaker 2: so he can hold up a little bit better in

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Speaker 2: the post. That's all good, and I think that bodes

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Speaker 2: well for Denver in the series. In isolation situations, and in

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Speaker 2: post up situations, but in pick and roll in particular,

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Speaker 2: I think that the Nuggets are going to be in

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Speaker 2: some trouble on a couple of different fronts. So and

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Speaker 2: this is why I'm considering this the Lebron James series

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Speaker 2: on the offensive end of the floor. So on film,

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Speaker 2: what I noticed in the footage at the beginning of

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Speaker 2: the year. Now it's important to note that they were

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Speaker 2: this was before the deadline. So it's a lot of

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Speaker 2: Patrick Beverlely on the weak side. It's a lot of

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Speaker 2: Troy Brown Junior on the week side. It's a lot

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Speaker 2: of Kendrick Nunn back when he couldn't make a damn shot,

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Speaker 2: and so the Nuggets were really loading up. But it

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Speaker 2: was very similar to the Phoenix Sun's coverage. It was

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Speaker 2: kind of yokicchen a high drop up near the level

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Speaker 2: of the screen, Aaron Gordon chasing over the top, and

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Speaker 2: almost all three other defenders have a foot in the

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Speaker 2: paint except for maybe in the strong side corner right,

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Speaker 2: and so those skip passes are open. It's very similar

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Speaker 2: to what they did to Phoenix. And I thought I

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Speaker 2: was talking with Matt Moore this morning. Actually i'd go

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Speaker 2: to his twitter feed. I'm sure he'll have the link

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Speaker 2: because we got pretty deep into this series. He's a

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Speaker 2: big guy covers the Nuggets, big Nuggets optimist, and yeah,

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Speaker 2: I was asking him. I was like, do you think

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Speaker 2: that Phoenix left some meat on the bone as it

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Speaker 2: pertains to the Nuggets pick and roll coverage with how

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Speaker 2: hard they were loading up?

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Speaker 1: And he said yes.

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Speaker 2: He was like, Devin Booker and Kevin Durant too frequently

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Speaker 2: missed the skip pass to the weakside corner. Guess what,

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Speaker 2: that's the best thing that Lebron does in pick and

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Speaker 2: roll is make those skip passes on the dime because

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Speaker 2: he's one of the better jump passers in the league.

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Speaker 2: Throws everything on a rope, on time, on target in

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Speaker 2: the shooting pocket, and those are gonna be That's gonna

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Speaker 2: be a lot of Austin Reeves on the weak side.

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Speaker 2: He's shooting forty four percent on catch and shoot threes

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Speaker 2: in this postseason run. Dangelo Russell on the weak side,

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Speaker 2: He's shooting thirty nine percent on catch and shoot threes

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Speaker 2: in this postseason run. Ruy Hatcha Mura on the weak

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Speaker 2: side fifty three percent on catch and shoot threes in

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Speaker 2: this postseason run, Lonnie Walker on the weak side thirty

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Speaker 2: eight percent on catch and shoot threes in this postseason run.

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Speaker 2: So there's gonna be much more dependable weak side shooters

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Speaker 2: than what they had during the regular season, and that

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Speaker 2: coverage is gonna leave some openings for Lebron. What I

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Speaker 2: like about it the most for Lebron's sake is it

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Speaker 2: implicates his brain more than it does his body. So

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Speaker 2: when they're switching pick and roll, Lebron has a bully

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Speaker 2: smaller defenders right, Whereas if in a drop coverage he's

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Speaker 2: getting downhill by the by virtue of the coverage, all

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Speaker 2: he has to do is set Aaron Gordon up for

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Speaker 2: the screen than Aaron Gordon's behind him. So now he's

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00:16:53,120 --> 00:16:56,280
Speaker 2: going downhill naturally as part of the coverage, which puts

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Speaker 2: the onus on his brain to make the necessary reads

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Speaker 2: as opposed to switching coverage bonuses on his body. And

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Speaker 2: so a lot of times Lebron would get really passive

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Speaker 2: for long stretches offensively over the last two series, in

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Speaker 2: large part because he's just trying to conserve his energy.

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Speaker 2: He can actually conserve his energy as a playmaker and

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Speaker 2: high pick and roll against the Nuggets. I think that's

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Speaker 2: a significant advantage. Another thing I think you'll see a

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Speaker 2: lot of is what Lebron did towards the end of

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Speaker 2: the Warriors series, which is picking on the smaller Nuggets

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Speaker 2: players in pick and roll. So instead of the Lebron

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Speaker 2: Anthony Davis pick and roll, what if it's trying to

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Speaker 2: target Jamal Murray, Contavious Cabble, Pope and Michael Porter, Junior,

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Speaker 2: Bruce Brown and Christian Brown and switches just like he

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Speaker 2: did down the stretch to Klay Thompson, Jordan Poole, Steph Curry,

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Speaker 2: Andrew Wiggins, even in straight ISOs or straight post ups.

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Speaker 2: But Lebron would sit at the top of the key,

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Speaker 2: call the defender that he wants into the action. Say

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Speaker 2: it's Steph Curry and Lonnie Walker's on him right. So

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Speaker 2: Lonnie Walker's gonna set like a ghost screen basically and

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Speaker 2: funnel off to the left side on the wing, and

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Speaker 2: Steph is going to try to hedge and recover or

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Speaker 2: he might end up having to switch onto le and Lebron.

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Speaker 2: What he would do is just hard kind of take

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Speaker 2: a banana driving route along the right side of the

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00:18:05,080 --> 00:18:09,440
Speaker 2: floor around the hedge and either he would get downhill

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Speaker 2: because the hedger would allow Lebron to kind of turn

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Speaker 2: the corner or he would get the switch that he wanted.

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00:18:14,480 --> 00:18:16,520
Speaker 2: And if he got the switch that he wanted, once

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Speaker 2: he kind of took that banana route, he would turn

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00:18:18,960 --> 00:18:20,840
Speaker 2: and then he would start posting up right and then

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00:18:20,880 --> 00:18:23,080
Speaker 2: he would start trying to bully that smaller defender to

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00:18:23,119 --> 00:18:26,040
Speaker 2: whatever spot he needed to do. And like again, that

402
00:18:26,080 --> 00:18:28,399
Speaker 2: one's really energy consuming for Lebron. So it's more of

403
00:18:28,440 --> 00:18:31,280
Speaker 2: a late series thing or a late game thing. But

404
00:18:32,080 --> 00:18:35,920
Speaker 2: Lebron attacked Moses Moody. Lebron attacked Dante DiVincenzo, he attacked

405
00:18:36,000 --> 00:18:39,280
Speaker 2: Steph Curry, Clay Thompson, Jordan pul Like. He was relentless

406
00:18:39,320 --> 00:18:42,359
Speaker 2: attacking the Warriors smaller defenders towards the end of that series.

407
00:18:42,600 --> 00:18:44,399
Speaker 2: Don't be surprised if you see a lot of that

408
00:18:45,400 --> 00:18:49,439
Speaker 2: against the Denver Nuggets to try to take advantage of

409
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Speaker 2: his size there over the course of the series. Number three,

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Speaker 2: who will win the Battle of the bench. So both

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Speaker 2: teams law a backup center. And this in particular is

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Speaker 2: very interesting to me because over the course of this postseason,

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Speaker 2: Lebron's plus minus numbers have not been very good. And

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Speaker 2: a big part of that or is on off numbers,

415
00:19:11,440 --> 00:19:13,080
Speaker 2: I should say, and a big part of that is

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Speaker 2: because the Lakers don't have a backup center. And one

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Speaker 2: of the things that Taylor Jenkins did with the Memphis

418
00:19:17,080 --> 00:19:20,680
Speaker 2: Grizzlies is he staggered. He flipped Jared Jackson's rotation. Jared

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00:19:20,720 --> 00:19:23,240
Speaker 2: Jackson during the regular season was on Anthony Davis's rotation.

420
00:19:23,320 --> 00:19:25,919
Speaker 2: He switched it up because Darvin ham wasn't switching his

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00:19:26,040 --> 00:19:28,320
Speaker 2: rotation to make sure Jared Jackson was on the floor

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Speaker 2: for all of the Laker bench group minutes.

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Speaker 1: And they were really struggled with that.

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00:19:32,880 --> 00:19:35,280
Speaker 2: That Laker bench group really struggled with Jaron Jackson at center,

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Speaker 2: keeping him off the glass and keeping him away from

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Speaker 2: the rim. And like four of the six games that

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Speaker 2: there were a couple of games where the Lakers held

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Speaker 2: up okay, but for the most part, they struggled.

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00:19:42,080 --> 00:19:42,600
Speaker 1: In that group.

430
00:19:42,880 --> 00:19:46,199
Speaker 2: Same thing for the Warriors. Kevon Looney's out there and

431
00:19:46,359 --> 00:19:48,679
Speaker 2: just destroying Ruy Hatcha Murran the glass. They couldn't get

432
00:19:48,680 --> 00:19:52,679
Speaker 2: a damn defensive rebound to save their lives. Excuse me.

433
00:19:53,560 --> 00:19:55,600
Speaker 2: So that bench group has been an issue for the

434
00:19:55,680 --> 00:19:56,680
Speaker 2: Lakers throughout the postseason.

435
00:19:56,680 --> 00:19:56,840
Speaker 1: Well.

436
00:19:56,840 --> 00:19:59,280
Speaker 2: Denver also has a similar issue with their bench group.

437
00:19:59,280 --> 00:20:01,160
Speaker 2: They don't have a backup center. They don't have enough

438
00:20:01,160 --> 00:20:03,520
Speaker 2: shot creation or defense in that lineup. That is a

439
00:20:03,520 --> 00:20:06,520
Speaker 2: big advantage to Lebron in my opinion, and mean in

440
00:20:06,640 --> 00:20:11,000
Speaker 2: large part just because Lebron James could not impact winning

441
00:20:11,119 --> 00:20:13,720
Speaker 2: enough with the size disadvantage in those groups. He's gonna

442
00:20:13,720 --> 00:20:15,240
Speaker 2: be by far the best player on the floor in

443
00:20:15,280 --> 00:20:18,280
Speaker 2: these bench groups without having to worry about the physical mismatches.

444
00:20:19,240 --> 00:20:21,480
Speaker 2: Ruy Hatchamura is gonna be able to hang just fine

445
00:20:21,800 --> 00:20:23,680
Speaker 2: in that group as a kind of a small ball

446
00:20:23,760 --> 00:20:26,520
Speaker 2: five defensive rebounder type compared to the way he did

447
00:20:26,520 --> 00:20:29,280
Speaker 2: against Kevon Looney and Jaron Jackson. So I actually really

448
00:20:29,400 --> 00:20:31,520
Speaker 2: like the bench matchup for the Lakers in this series

449
00:20:31,560 --> 00:20:33,719
Speaker 2: after it was a problem in the previous two rounds.

450
00:20:34,480 --> 00:20:38,200
Speaker 2: A couple of quick hitters guard play Ken Bruce Brown,

451
00:20:38,320 --> 00:20:41,959
Speaker 2: Contavio's Coldwell Pope and Jamal Murray outplay Dennis Schroeder, Austin

452
00:20:42,000 --> 00:20:45,160
Speaker 2: Reeves and D'Angelo Russell. Who's going to provide better shot

453
00:20:45,200 --> 00:20:46,040
Speaker 2: making in defense?

454
00:20:46,119 --> 00:20:46,760
Speaker 1: Right now?

455
00:20:47,080 --> 00:20:48,880
Speaker 2: I give this a slight advantage to Denver because Jamal

456
00:20:48,960 --> 00:20:50,359
Speaker 2: Murray's the best player in that group, but it's a

457
00:20:50,359 --> 00:20:52,480
Speaker 2: little bit more tricky than that because Lebron James is

458
00:20:52,560 --> 00:20:54,720
Speaker 2: kind of more of a comp to Murray as that

459
00:20:54,800 --> 00:20:58,600
Speaker 2: secondary star. But it's strictly looking at guard play. Big

460
00:20:58,640 --> 00:21:00,800
Speaker 2: sign for the Lakers would be if Schroeder, Reeves and

461
00:21:00,880 --> 00:21:04,920
Speaker 2: Dangel Russell can play to a stalemate with Murray, KCP

462
00:21:05,119 --> 00:21:08,440
Speaker 2: and Brown can can the Lakers play their forwards?

463
00:21:08,440 --> 00:21:09,080
Speaker 1: This is a big one.

464
00:21:09,160 --> 00:21:12,119
Speaker 2: So Hotcher Murr and Jared Vanderbilt both kind of exited

465
00:21:12,160 --> 00:21:12,960
Speaker 2: the rotation, not.

466
00:21:13,000 --> 00:21:15,240
Speaker 1: Entirely, but their roles got shrunk.

467
00:21:15,240 --> 00:21:17,880
Speaker 2: And the Warriors series why too much helping off Jared

468
00:21:17,960 --> 00:21:21,119
Speaker 2: Vanderbilt was screwing up their offense and on the offense,

469
00:21:21,240 --> 00:21:22,880
Speaker 2: on the defensive end of the floor, Ruy hatch Mura

470
00:21:22,920 --> 00:21:27,159
Speaker 2: was struggling with screen navigation and Denver in particular, and

471
00:21:27,240 --> 00:21:28,560
Speaker 2: this is a I talk about this a lot on

472
00:21:28,600 --> 00:21:30,480
Speaker 2: the show, but Lock and Trailing is a lot about

473
00:21:30,480 --> 00:21:33,520
Speaker 2: low center of gravity and avoiding screens right, and Ruey's

474
00:21:33,560 --> 00:21:35,119
Speaker 2: just got a high center of gravity. He's easy to

475
00:21:35,119 --> 00:21:38,600
Speaker 2: set screens on, so it can be an issue for him.

476
00:21:38,640 --> 00:21:40,600
Speaker 2: This series is gonna have some similar stuff Michael Porter

477
00:21:40,680 --> 00:21:42,919
Speaker 2: Junior runs a lot of off screen action. Contavious called

478
00:21:42,920 --> 00:21:45,040
Speaker 2: what Pope runs a lot of off screen action. If

479
00:21:45,119 --> 00:21:47,680
Speaker 2: Ruey ends up in one of those matchups, he could

480
00:21:47,680 --> 00:21:50,840
Speaker 2: be in a situation where where he could struggle. I

481
00:21:50,840 --> 00:21:53,320
Speaker 2: think Ruiy's gonna have to play when Lebron's off the floor,

482
00:21:53,359 --> 00:21:56,080
Speaker 2: so he can guard Aaron Gordon as much as possible

483
00:21:56,119 --> 00:21:58,280
Speaker 2: or Jeff Green someone like that, so he can kind

484
00:21:58,320 --> 00:22:00,119
Speaker 2: of be more to help situation and be a on

485
00:22:00,119 --> 00:22:03,240
Speaker 2: the rim as a defender, rim protector and defensive rebounder.

486
00:22:03,920 --> 00:22:06,919
Speaker 2: But the Lakers need their their forwards to be an

487
00:22:06,920 --> 00:22:09,520
Speaker 2: effective defensive rebounding team. He saw that a lot against

488
00:22:09,520 --> 00:22:12,399
Speaker 2: the Warriors where they ended up going small and then

489
00:22:12,440 --> 00:22:14,400
Speaker 2: they gave up twelve offensive rebounds in the first half

490
00:22:14,440 --> 00:22:16,080
Speaker 2: because you've got three guards on the floor and Lebron

491
00:22:16,160 --> 00:22:18,520
Speaker 2: James and Anthony Davis have to do so much physically

492
00:22:18,960 --> 00:22:22,399
Speaker 2: to overcome that. So can the Lakers forwards play big minutes.

493
00:22:22,400 --> 00:22:24,880
Speaker 2: That's going to be another one, last, but not least transition.

494
00:22:25,640 --> 00:22:27,359
Speaker 2: I mentioned this at the start of the show, but

495
00:22:27,720 --> 00:22:29,800
Speaker 2: Jokic knows how to punish a d when he's lazy.

496
00:22:29,920 --> 00:22:31,480
Speaker 2: He sees when he's on the floor and he sees

497
00:22:31,520 --> 00:22:33,639
Speaker 2: when he's bitching at the refs, and he sprints and

498
00:22:33,680 --> 00:22:35,520
Speaker 2: tries to get a cross match in a quick post seal.

499
00:22:36,320 --> 00:22:38,720
Speaker 2: He also can beat the Lakers in transition with outlet passes,

500
00:22:38,800 --> 00:22:42,080
Speaker 2: So Biggs running the floor, particularly Ad that's going to

501
00:22:42,119 --> 00:22:43,919
Speaker 2: be a big one in this series as well. My

502
00:22:44,040 --> 00:22:46,120
Speaker 2: three points were brought to you by Chase Freedom Unlimited.

503
00:22:46,440 --> 00:22:49,720
Speaker 2: Earn five percent on travel purchased or Chase three percent

504
00:22:50,280 --> 00:22:53,439
Speaker 2: on dining including takeout, three percent on drug stores, and

505
00:22:53,520 --> 00:22:56,040
Speaker 2: one point five percent on everything else. How do you

506
00:22:56,119 --> 00:22:59,879
Speaker 2: cash back? So my prediction, I'm picking the Lakers and

507
00:23:00,040 --> 00:23:04,959
Speaker 2: six games. I think Anthony Davis will significantly hamper Denver's defense,

508
00:23:05,080 --> 00:23:07,159
Speaker 2: just like he did every other offense he's faced in

509
00:23:07,200 --> 00:23:09,920
Speaker 2: this postseason. Golden State was a top ten offense in

510
00:23:09,920 --> 00:23:11,560
Speaker 2: the regular season. They had a one to fifteen point

511
00:23:11,560 --> 00:23:13,520
Speaker 2: one offensive raiding in the regular season. The Lakers held

512
00:23:13,560 --> 00:23:16,360
Speaker 2: him to one ten point two. The Grizzlies were eleventh

513
00:23:16,359 --> 00:23:18,560
Speaker 2: in offense. They had a one fourteen point seven offensive

514
00:23:18,600 --> 00:23:20,280
Speaker 2: raiding in the regular season. The Lakers held them to

515
00:23:20,320 --> 00:23:24,280
Speaker 2: one oh two point eight, so utterly stifled their offense. Again,

516
00:23:24,280 --> 00:23:26,000
Speaker 2: this is the better offense than either of the two

517
00:23:26,080 --> 00:23:28,439
Speaker 2: they faced. But just like I said with Steph Curry,

518
00:23:28,440 --> 00:23:31,040
Speaker 2: you'd be foolish to think that Anthony Davis can't have

519
00:23:31,119 --> 00:23:33,679
Speaker 2: a similar impact on Jokic, at least to some extent.

520
00:23:34,080 --> 00:23:35,639
Speaker 2: I also think this will be by far the easiest

521
00:23:35,640 --> 00:23:37,320
Speaker 2: defensive match up the Lakers have faced so far in

522
00:23:37,359 --> 00:23:40,760
Speaker 2: the postseason. Memphis was the number three regular season defense.

523
00:23:40,880 --> 00:23:44,719
Speaker 2: We talked about all defense defender on Lebron and Dylan Brooks,

524
00:23:44,720 --> 00:23:46,639
Speaker 2: and then the defensive Player of the Year guarding Anthony

525
00:23:46,720 --> 00:23:49,119
Speaker 2: Davis Golden State. You've got the best defensive player this

526
00:23:49,160 --> 00:23:51,840
Speaker 2: era and Draymond Green guarding Anthony Davis. And you've got

527
00:23:52,359 --> 00:23:54,800
Speaker 2: Andrew Wiggins, who I said after last year's postseason might

528
00:23:54,800 --> 00:23:58,200
Speaker 2: be the best perimeter defender in basketball, guarding Lebron James.

529
00:23:58,359 --> 00:24:00,760
Speaker 2: And they just have better personnel, right, Both of those

530
00:24:00,760 --> 00:24:03,680
Speaker 2: teams just have better defensive personnel than what Denver brings

531
00:24:03,720 --> 00:24:05,399
Speaker 2: to the table. That puts a lot of onus on

532
00:24:05,480 --> 00:24:08,720
Speaker 2: Lebron James to be the offensive maestro that he's capable

533
00:24:08,720 --> 00:24:10,840
Speaker 2: of being, and I think he's got to dominate that

534
00:24:11,000 --> 00:24:13,840
Speaker 2: end of the floor. To me, it's Lebron's series. Offensively,

535
00:24:13,960 --> 00:24:18,480
Speaker 2: it's Anthony Davis's series Defensively. If Nikola Jokic can defend

536
00:24:18,520 --> 00:24:21,679
Speaker 2: well enough to slow down Lebron on offense, and if

537
00:24:21,720 --> 00:24:24,119
Speaker 2: he can punish Anthony Davis enough on the other end

538
00:24:24,160 --> 00:24:26,040
Speaker 2: of the floor, I think the Nuggets can win. But

539
00:24:26,119 --> 00:24:28,280
Speaker 2: I believe the Lakers will win those matchups at least

540
00:24:28,280 --> 00:24:32,080
Speaker 2: to some extent. So I am picking the Lakers in six.

541
00:24:32,200 --> 00:24:34,919
Speaker 2: Denver's path to victory, it's pretty simple. Jokic has to

542
00:24:34,960 --> 00:24:38,800
Speaker 2: dominate a d If he does enforce his consistent help

543
00:24:39,760 --> 00:24:41,600
Speaker 2: or gets Anthony Davis in foul trouble, I think this

544
00:24:41,640 --> 00:24:43,080
Speaker 2: could be over quick. As a matter of fact, if

545
00:24:43,080 --> 00:24:45,160
Speaker 2: Denver wins this series, I think it'd be in five games.

546
00:24:45,160 --> 00:24:47,600
Speaker 2: I think they would win games one and two, be

547
00:24:47,680 --> 00:24:51,000
Speaker 2: two to zero, steal one in LA to make it

548
00:24:51,000 --> 00:24:53,880
Speaker 2: three to one, and then close out the series in five.

549
00:24:53,960 --> 00:24:55,960
Speaker 2: So picking the Lakers in six wouldn't be the least

550
00:24:56,000 --> 00:24:58,800
Speaker 2: bit surprised if Denver one have a ton of respect

551
00:24:58,800 --> 00:25:01,119
Speaker 2: for those guys. I'm riding with the Lakers right now.

552
00:25:01,160 --> 00:25:02,720
Speaker 2: I think they're a much better defensive team, and I

553
00:25:02,760 --> 00:25:06,639
Speaker 2: think they're capable of picking apart this Nuggets team enough

554
00:25:07,000 --> 00:25:09,760
Speaker 2: to advance. All Right, guys, that's all I have for today.

555
00:25:09,800 --> 00:25:12,400
Speaker 1: We'll be back. We will be back shortly with our

556
00:25:12,440 --> 00:25:39,200
Speaker 1: Eastern Conference finals. The volume