1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:10,119 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:13,880 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 3 00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:17,119 Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple Coarckley and Android 4 00:00:17,160 --> 00:00:20,560 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever 5 00:00:20,600 --> 00:00:24,520 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,280 --> 00:00:28,800 Speaker 2: When they asked mister t B. A Baracus what his 7 00:00:28,920 --> 00:00:34,919 Speaker 2: prediction was for the fight, he said, pain. But this 8 00:00:35,040 --> 00:00:37,680 Speaker 2: may not be rocky three today in the Oval Office, 9 00:00:37,720 --> 00:00:40,400 Speaker 2: not after what we heard from President Trump this morning. 10 00:00:40,440 --> 00:00:42,760 Speaker 2: He showed up on Fox News Radio talking to Brian 11 00:00:42,840 --> 00:00:48,080 Speaker 2: Kilmead predicting a civil meeting with zoron Mom Donnie the 12 00:00:48,120 --> 00:00:51,279 Speaker 2: man he calls a communist, the next mayor of New York, 13 00:00:51,280 --> 00:00:53,239 Speaker 2: who's going to be in the Oval a little more 14 00:00:53,280 --> 00:00:55,920 Speaker 2: than two hours from now. It's scheduled for three pm 15 00:00:56,040 --> 00:00:58,240 Speaker 2: Eastern time. And this will have a lot to do 16 00:00:58,320 --> 00:01:01,480 Speaker 2: with what we discuss on late edition of Balance of Power. 17 00:01:01,480 --> 00:01:03,680 Speaker 2: Everybody's gen and for a fight, though, right this is 18 00:01:03,680 --> 00:01:05,560 Speaker 2: going to be pay per view, is what they said, 19 00:01:06,000 --> 00:01:06,959 Speaker 2: Must see TV. 20 00:01:07,160 --> 00:01:08,080 Speaker 3: Pop the corn. 21 00:01:09,280 --> 00:01:12,320 Speaker 2: You know, when we start talking like that, creating these expectations, 22 00:01:12,440 --> 00:01:13,480 Speaker 2: it usually doesn't happen. 23 00:01:13,560 --> 00:01:13,720 Speaker 3: Right. 24 00:01:14,880 --> 00:01:16,399 Speaker 2: Is this going to be some kind of love fest, 25 00:01:17,160 --> 00:01:21,319 Speaker 2: the president saying again on Fox quote, I was hitting 26 00:01:21,360 --> 00:01:25,520 Speaker 2: a little hard too, in all fairness, what well he 27 00:01:25,640 --> 00:01:28,840 Speaker 2: sure was. They've both been swinging, as we witnessed over 28 00:01:28,840 --> 00:01:30,679 Speaker 2: the course of Mom Donnie's campaign. 29 00:01:30,720 --> 00:01:34,959 Speaker 3: Listen, if anyone can show a nation betrayed by Donald 30 00:01:35,040 --> 00:01:38,080 Speaker 3: Trump how to defeat him, it is the city that 31 00:01:38,200 --> 00:01:41,720 Speaker 3: gave rise to him. He's a communist. I don't think. 32 00:01:41,600 --> 00:01:43,360 Speaker 2: Our country is ready for a communist. 33 00:01:43,480 --> 00:01:46,160 Speaker 3: I have four words for you. 34 00:01:47,400 --> 00:01:49,120 Speaker 4: Turn the volume up. 35 00:01:49,280 --> 00:01:51,160 Speaker 5: He pick up right there to the building to get 36 00:01:51,200 --> 00:01:51,680 Speaker 5: his money. 37 00:01:52,440 --> 00:01:54,600 Speaker 6: Man, don't worry, He's not going to run away with anything. 38 00:01:54,640 --> 00:01:56,600 Speaker 3: I will not be intimidated by this president. I will 39 00:01:56,600 --> 00:02:01,520 Speaker 3: not be intimidated by anyone. And then they became friends. 40 00:02:02,360 --> 00:02:02,840 Speaker 3: I don't know. 41 00:02:02,880 --> 00:02:07,760 Speaker 2: That might not happen. CC thinks this could be Carney esque. 42 00:02:08,120 --> 00:02:11,520 Speaker 2: Donald Trump does have a history, ask J. Powell of 43 00:02:11,560 --> 00:02:14,680 Speaker 2: saying really nasty things about you when you're not around 44 00:02:15,040 --> 00:02:18,560 Speaker 2: leading up to a meeting in which he's very kind. Actually, 45 00:02:19,080 --> 00:02:23,320 Speaker 2: everybody seems to kind of get along. Let's see what 46 00:02:23,360 --> 00:02:25,960 Speaker 2: the panel thinks. They've had a minute to settle on this. 47 00:02:26,080 --> 00:02:28,880 Speaker 2: Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano are back on a Friday, 48 00:02:28,880 --> 00:02:33,000 Speaker 2: which means it's a good one. Bloomberg Politics contributors. Genie 49 00:02:33,000 --> 00:02:36,200 Speaker 2: Shanzo Democracy visiting fellow at Harvard Kennedy Schools ASH Center, 50 00:02:36,320 --> 00:02:40,080 Speaker 2: Rick is partner at Stone Court Capital or Republican strategist. 51 00:02:40,680 --> 00:02:41,400 Speaker 3: What do you think. 52 00:02:41,240 --> 00:02:43,760 Speaker 2: After hearing all of that, Genie and what the President 53 00:02:43,840 --> 00:02:46,880 Speaker 2: said today? I mean, it's going to be a civil meeting? 54 00:02:47,200 --> 00:02:49,000 Speaker 2: Are these guys looking to get along? 55 00:02:51,200 --> 00:02:53,800 Speaker 4: I'm still back on your reference to mister t Joe. 56 00:02:53,840 --> 00:02:58,919 Speaker 4: That just threw me back several years. You know, it 57 00:02:59,000 --> 00:03:02,520 Speaker 4: is decades, That's true. It is a clash of the 58 00:03:02,560 --> 00:03:06,560 Speaker 4: men from Queens who are themselves separated by decades. I 59 00:03:06,600 --> 00:03:10,560 Speaker 4: mean they are not only, you know, so different ideologically, 60 00:03:11,040 --> 00:03:14,200 Speaker 4: but they are so different generationally. And I think each 61 00:03:14,360 --> 00:03:17,160 Speaker 4: has a grudging respect for the other. And you've heard 62 00:03:17,600 --> 00:03:20,359 Speaker 4: some of that in the comments, as nasty as they 63 00:03:20,400 --> 00:03:23,280 Speaker 4: have been. And of course I think it is an 64 00:03:23,320 --> 00:03:29,040 Speaker 4: opportunity for Donald Trump to focus where he ran on 65 00:03:29,200 --> 00:03:32,360 Speaker 4: and has lost his way, which is affordability, and for 66 00:03:32,520 --> 00:03:36,640 Speaker 4: Zorn Mandani to go into the lions then, so to speak, 67 00:03:37,000 --> 00:03:40,320 Speaker 4: and to come out unscathed. So they both got their 68 00:03:40,360 --> 00:03:43,160 Speaker 4: work cut out for them. I can't imagine they don't 69 00:03:43,160 --> 00:03:46,760 Speaker 4: have a press pool, or maybe I'm just hoping, but 70 00:03:46,840 --> 00:03:48,880 Speaker 4: I do think it's an opportunity. I was so glad 71 00:03:48,920 --> 00:03:51,200 Speaker 4: you mentioned Jerome Powell because I think for all the 72 00:03:51,240 --> 00:03:53,120 Speaker 4: people who have gone in and out of the White House, 73 00:03:53,520 --> 00:03:56,800 Speaker 4: I think Jerome Powell did it in a way that 74 00:03:56,920 --> 00:04:00,720 Speaker 4: people should try to emulate. He has handled this masterfully, 75 00:04:01,040 --> 00:04:03,000 Speaker 4: and so I think he's the one that I would 76 00:04:03,040 --> 00:04:05,160 Speaker 4: look to as sort of an example of how to 77 00:04:05,240 --> 00:04:07,960 Speaker 4: stay your ground and not to get wrapped up in 78 00:04:08,000 --> 00:04:09,600 Speaker 4: the performative nature of it all. 79 00:04:10,720 --> 00:04:11,800 Speaker 3: What do you think about that? 80 00:04:12,160 --> 00:04:12,280 Speaker 7: Rick? 81 00:04:12,400 --> 00:04:16,880 Speaker 2: Donald Trump does have a pattern of talking tough. It's 82 00:04:16,960 --> 00:04:18,960 Speaker 2: kind of like road rage, but then all of a 83 00:04:19,000 --> 00:04:20,799 Speaker 2: sudden you get out of the car, you're you're pretty 84 00:04:20,839 --> 00:04:24,200 Speaker 2: nice to that person who is tailgating you. 85 00:04:24,800 --> 00:04:25,240 Speaker 3: I don't know. 86 00:04:25,360 --> 00:04:29,800 Speaker 6: Sometimes that happens, and sometimes trash talk continues right into 87 00:04:29,800 --> 00:04:34,320 Speaker 6: the overlop. Yeah, I air toward the mister t line 88 00:04:34,760 --> 00:04:35,760 Speaker 6: A pity to fool. 89 00:04:37,520 --> 00:04:39,760 Speaker 3: I think that he's walking. 90 00:04:39,520 --> 00:04:43,000 Speaker 6: Into something that you know, maybe he thinks, oh, this 91 00:04:43,040 --> 00:04:46,600 Speaker 6: is what I should be doing, is a mayor elect? 92 00:04:46,640 --> 00:04:49,360 Speaker 6: I should be you know, checking the boxes with all 93 00:04:49,400 --> 00:04:52,400 Speaker 6: these powerful people who hold sway over the city. How 94 00:04:52,440 --> 00:04:55,480 Speaker 6: do I work with them? This is the first Republican 95 00:04:55,520 --> 00:05:00,680 Speaker 6: that he's really having that conversation with, and any maga Republican. 96 00:05:00,839 --> 00:05:04,840 Speaker 5: So we may not know what happens inside that room. 97 00:05:04,880 --> 00:05:08,159 Speaker 6: I mean, certainly the President is turning down the temperature 98 00:05:08,200 --> 00:05:12,359 Speaker 6: on this meeting quite a bit, not currently showing that 99 00:05:12,440 --> 00:05:16,239 Speaker 6: it's going to be a press pool. Certainly the press 100 00:05:16,279 --> 00:05:20,480 Speaker 6: pool is going to be pretty pretty sweet to mister Trump. 101 00:05:20,560 --> 00:05:24,440 Speaker 6: I mean it's Fox and MK Media and Newsmax, and 102 00:05:24,560 --> 00:05:27,400 Speaker 6: I mean, like when you're press pool is basically all 103 00:05:27,440 --> 00:05:32,039 Speaker 6: your greatest supporters. It's kind of hard for Mondami to 104 00:05:32,160 --> 00:05:34,640 Speaker 6: think he's going to get a fair shake if they 105 00:05:34,680 --> 00:05:38,680 Speaker 6: do come in. But my real question is, regardless of 106 00:05:38,680 --> 00:05:42,080 Speaker 6: what happens in the meeting, is the mayor going to 107 00:05:42,080 --> 00:05:45,599 Speaker 6: go out, you know and and do a you know, 108 00:05:45,760 --> 00:05:49,039 Speaker 6: press veil on the front lawn of the White House 109 00:05:49,120 --> 00:05:51,280 Speaker 6: like so many of these guys do after they meet 110 00:05:51,320 --> 00:05:53,839 Speaker 6: with the President, Because I think that could be more 111 00:05:53,880 --> 00:05:56,200 Speaker 6: telling than if we're not going to see inside the 112 00:05:56,200 --> 00:05:56,840 Speaker 6: Oval office. 113 00:05:56,839 --> 00:05:57,400 Speaker 5: So we'll see. 114 00:05:58,040 --> 00:06:00,960 Speaker 6: I think I think it could be full of surprises. 115 00:06:02,000 --> 00:06:04,440 Speaker 2: This that was okay, great insider take. You're right that 116 00:06:04,560 --> 00:06:06,440 Speaker 2: the Mamdani might come out to the sticks, as they 117 00:06:06,440 --> 00:06:08,960 Speaker 2: call it, the stake out in the driveway, just like 118 00:06:09,000 --> 00:06:10,760 Speaker 2: you'd see Chuck Schumer come out there. That was a 119 00:06:10,839 --> 00:06:13,599 Speaker 2: terrible meeting, and they kind of frame things the way 120 00:06:13,640 --> 00:06:16,840 Speaker 2: they can in front of the media. By the way, 121 00:06:16,880 --> 00:06:19,679 Speaker 2: he just posted on Twitter this morning a shot from 122 00:06:19,960 --> 00:06:20,520 Speaker 2: the airplane. 123 00:06:20,560 --> 00:06:22,640 Speaker 3: We don't have that, do we to show everybody? 124 00:06:22,640 --> 00:06:26,160 Speaker 2: Look at this, There's no writing, just an airplane emoji smiling. 125 00:06:26,279 --> 00:06:30,240 Speaker 2: Is that first class? What do we think, James? I 126 00:06:30,279 --> 00:06:33,040 Speaker 2: can't tell that either that or sitting. You think that's 127 00:06:33,120 --> 00:06:36,760 Speaker 2: coach that seat? I don't know if that's coach. Just 128 00:06:36,839 --> 00:06:40,120 Speaker 2: curious you guys weigh in as you wish. Genie, the 129 00:06:41,040 --> 00:06:43,360 Speaker 2: question here about press being allowed, Rick brings up a 130 00:06:43,400 --> 00:06:43,800 Speaker 2: great point. 131 00:06:43,839 --> 00:06:44,920 Speaker 3: Look at the intown pool. 132 00:06:45,160 --> 00:06:47,040 Speaker 2: I love the fact that this is something we can 133 00:06:47,080 --> 00:06:54,080 Speaker 2: talk about Fox Newsmax, Washington Times, MK Media, America's urban 134 00:06:54,200 --> 00:06:57,120 Speaker 2: radio network. And then you've got the photos apaf P, 135 00:06:57,240 --> 00:07:00,040 Speaker 2: New York Times, Reuters, Getty, Washington Times for print. I 136 00:07:00,120 --> 00:07:03,080 Speaker 2: think I said that does he need to bring them 137 00:07:03,120 --> 00:07:06,000 Speaker 2: into the room, Genie? How is this not open press already? 138 00:07:07,480 --> 00:07:07,720 Speaker 5: Yeah? 139 00:07:07,920 --> 00:07:11,200 Speaker 4: I can't imagine it's gonna be the best TV of the. 140 00:07:11,200 --> 00:07:12,320 Speaker 3: Day, if not the week. 141 00:07:12,440 --> 00:07:15,800 Speaker 4: So I can't imagine either one of them exactly avoid it. 142 00:07:15,960 --> 00:07:18,680 Speaker 4: But you know, they say so far, I believe that 143 00:07:18,760 --> 00:07:22,320 Speaker 4: it's closed. And absolutely it is a friendly press corps. 144 00:07:22,320 --> 00:07:24,880 Speaker 4: If they're not friendly, he berates them, yells at them, 145 00:07:24,960 --> 00:07:28,760 Speaker 4: shames them, threatens their licenses. But I don't think anybody 146 00:07:28,840 --> 00:07:33,520 Speaker 4: should estimate Zoran Mundani's skills here. You know, he came 147 00:07:33,720 --> 00:07:37,680 Speaker 4: blasting out of nowhere in New York City, literally with 148 00:07:37,800 --> 00:07:42,360 Speaker 4: almost one percent name recognition, because he went into those 149 00:07:42,480 --> 00:07:46,360 Speaker 4: burroughs that increased their support for Donald Trump after the 150 00:07:46,400 --> 00:07:50,200 Speaker 4: twenty twenty election, and he asked those people creating viral 151 00:07:50,280 --> 00:07:53,480 Speaker 4: videos along the way, why did you turn to the president? 152 00:07:53,800 --> 00:07:57,440 Speaker 4: Every time he heard it was about the economy, about affordability, 153 00:07:57,640 --> 00:08:01,120 Speaker 4: and he's so disciplined he has stayed on that message 154 00:08:01,360 --> 00:08:05,080 Speaker 4: also throughout the campaign. After the primary, he went and 155 00:08:05,120 --> 00:08:07,640 Speaker 4: he spoke to business leaders. He went and he spoke 156 00:08:07,680 --> 00:08:11,440 Speaker 4: to Jewish leaders, people who opposed him, people who don't 157 00:08:11,480 --> 00:08:15,200 Speaker 4: support his policies. Every single one of them came out 158 00:08:15,240 --> 00:08:16,480 Speaker 4: saying the same thing. 159 00:08:17,240 --> 00:08:18,360 Speaker 5: We liked him. 160 00:08:18,400 --> 00:08:21,320 Speaker 4: He's very charming, which sounds a bit like Donald Trump, 161 00:08:21,400 --> 00:08:25,680 Speaker 4: So I don't think we should underestimate his abilities to 162 00:08:25,760 --> 00:08:28,720 Speaker 4: go into this room and to be prepared for what 163 00:08:28,840 --> 00:08:31,760 Speaker 4: he finds. And of course Donald Trump is in a 164 00:08:31,840 --> 00:08:34,560 Speaker 4: much different position now than he has been, whether it 165 00:08:34,600 --> 00:08:37,719 Speaker 4: was Gretchen Whitmer or the President of South Africa. He 166 00:08:37,840 --> 00:08:40,560 Speaker 4: is weaker and saying the issue that's number one on 167 00:08:40,600 --> 00:08:44,240 Speaker 4: americans mind's cost of living is a hoax and that 168 00:08:44,400 --> 00:08:47,360 Speaker 4: is not mum Donnie's message. So Donald Trump has a 169 00:08:47,360 --> 00:08:49,640 Speaker 4: lot at stake here as well. 170 00:08:49,840 --> 00:08:53,120 Speaker 2: I'm fascinated by the prep that's been reported here. On 171 00:08:53,200 --> 00:08:57,559 Speaker 2: behalf of the mayor elect Rick mamdannie joined a video 172 00:08:57,640 --> 00:09:02,840 Speaker 2: call with Robert Wolfe, former Chief Executive UBS America's, of course, 173 00:09:02,880 --> 00:09:05,760 Speaker 2: a close ally of President Barack Obama, and also planned 174 00:09:05,800 --> 00:09:11,000 Speaker 2: to speak with Governor Kathy Hochel, Senator Chuck Schumer, Hackeen, Jeffries, 175 00:09:11,080 --> 00:09:15,200 Speaker 2: the Reverend Al Sharpton, and others. Mam donnie advisor Patrick 176 00:09:15,240 --> 00:09:18,000 Speaker 2: Gaspard said the level of groundwork was critical for a 177 00:09:18,040 --> 00:09:22,360 Speaker 2: meeting he characterized as absolutely essential for the future of 178 00:09:22,400 --> 00:09:26,000 Speaker 2: the city. What do you make of the groundwork going 179 00:09:26,000 --> 00:09:26,800 Speaker 2: into this meeting? 180 00:09:28,240 --> 00:09:31,000 Speaker 6: Yeah, look, I mean it's something that you would likely 181 00:09:31,080 --> 00:09:35,720 Speaker 6: want to see from a highly inexperienced, you know, newly 182 00:09:35,760 --> 00:09:39,640 Speaker 6: elected official in a major post, like you know, mayor 183 00:09:39,679 --> 00:09:41,960 Speaker 6: of New York City thirty four years old. 184 00:09:42,040 --> 00:09:43,640 Speaker 5: He doesn't really have a track record. 185 00:09:44,080 --> 00:09:49,640 Speaker 6: He hasn't had long experience with public officials who are 186 00:09:49,880 --> 00:09:55,280 Speaker 6: governors and senators and congress people, and so it's impressive 187 00:09:55,840 --> 00:09:59,199 Speaker 6: I think any way you market, he's not just you. 188 00:09:59,160 --> 00:10:01,600 Speaker 5: Know, focused on and his agenda. 189 00:10:01,720 --> 00:10:04,520 Speaker 6: He's he's reached out to find other people who've had 190 00:10:04,559 --> 00:10:10,679 Speaker 6: experience dealing with this administration and probably pretty confident that 191 00:10:12,000 --> 00:10:13,800 Speaker 6: he's he's going to get a meeting that they're not 192 00:10:13,880 --> 00:10:16,480 Speaker 6: going to get right. I mean, like Kathy Hockel is 193 00:10:16,520 --> 00:10:18,760 Speaker 6: not going to be in the Oval office anytime soon, right, 194 00:10:18,880 --> 00:10:21,280 Speaker 6: yet he is going to be talking about the state 195 00:10:21,320 --> 00:10:23,160 Speaker 6: of play and the biggest city in her state. So 196 00:10:24,240 --> 00:10:27,280 Speaker 6: it's a it's a it's a really unique position for 197 00:10:27,400 --> 00:10:30,559 Speaker 6: such a young individual who is now going to become 198 00:10:30,960 --> 00:10:34,160 Speaker 6: one of the most powerful people in the United States. 199 00:10:34,240 --> 00:10:38,960 Speaker 6: And so it's a good indication that he isn't just 200 00:10:39,280 --> 00:10:41,840 Speaker 6: you know, shooting from the hip, that that he's going 201 00:10:41,880 --> 00:10:43,760 Speaker 6: to be well prepared by the time he gets in there. 202 00:10:44,760 --> 00:10:47,160 Speaker 2: Genie, you're the New Yorker on the line here. What 203 00:10:47,280 --> 00:10:50,079 Speaker 2: is Zorn Mam Donnie going to learn from the Reverend 204 00:10:50,080 --> 00:10:52,240 Speaker 2: Al Sharpton about Donald Trump? 205 00:10:53,800 --> 00:10:54,560 Speaker 3: Oh a lot. 206 00:10:54,720 --> 00:10:56,880 Speaker 4: You know, Al Sharpton and Donald Trump, as we know, 207 00:10:57,040 --> 00:11:00,760 Speaker 4: famously go back decades. Al and has spent a lot 208 00:11:00,840 --> 00:11:03,520 Speaker 4: of time with Trump. So you know, it is an 209 00:11:03,559 --> 00:11:06,440 Speaker 4: impressive array of people he's spoken to. But this is 210 00:11:06,480 --> 00:11:09,840 Speaker 4: the Zorn Mandani we've come to know. He is always 211 00:11:10,320 --> 00:11:12,840 Speaker 4: at least tries to be the most well prepared in 212 00:11:12,920 --> 00:11:15,400 Speaker 4: the room, and I know that that is what he 213 00:11:15,559 --> 00:11:18,360 Speaker 4: is aiming to do. He's going to try to be strong. 214 00:11:18,440 --> 00:11:20,640 Speaker 4: He's going to try to focus on New York and 215 00:11:20,720 --> 00:11:21,640 Speaker 4: the issue of. 216 00:11:21,679 --> 00:11:23,000 Speaker 5: Cost, cost cost. 217 00:11:23,320 --> 00:11:27,319 Speaker 4: He is incredibly disciplined in that way. And I also 218 00:11:27,400 --> 00:11:30,240 Speaker 4: thinks it's really important to just note that in the 219 00:11:30,320 --> 00:11:33,040 Speaker 4: last few days he had a big win in terms 220 00:11:33,040 --> 00:11:36,559 Speaker 4: of keeping the police commissioner Tish. She is going to 221 00:11:36,640 --> 00:11:40,280 Speaker 4: serve under his administration, and that takes away the argument 222 00:11:40,360 --> 00:11:43,640 Speaker 4: of those who are saying the city made kareem towards 223 00:11:43,640 --> 00:11:46,840 Speaker 4: you know, an unsafe anti police all of this stuff. 224 00:11:47,120 --> 00:11:50,719 Speaker 4: Jessica Tish they metal many times, and she said they 225 00:11:50,760 --> 00:11:53,320 Speaker 4: share a vision and she's going to remain so he's 226 00:11:53,440 --> 00:11:55,880 Speaker 4: even early on had some wins. 227 00:11:55,480 --> 00:11:59,120 Speaker 3: Like that, Rick got less than a minute. 228 00:11:59,360 --> 00:12:01,200 Speaker 2: If you're mom, do do you show up with an 229 00:12:01,320 --> 00:12:03,760 Speaker 2: entourage or do you show up alone? 230 00:12:04,600 --> 00:12:07,040 Speaker 6: My understanding from what I read this morning is he's 231 00:12:07,080 --> 00:12:09,640 Speaker 6: got you know, five or six folks coming with him. 232 00:12:10,240 --> 00:12:12,200 Speaker 6: None of the whids are over the age of thirty two, 233 00:12:13,280 --> 00:12:18,400 Speaker 6: So that's a young, sort of excited crowd of advisors 234 00:12:18,440 --> 00:12:22,920 Speaker 6: and staffers who will accompany him, and that seems appropriate. 235 00:12:24,280 --> 00:12:26,439 Speaker 2: The optics are going to be fascinating. Is Lena Kahan 236 00:12:26,600 --> 00:12:28,120 Speaker 2: going to be sitting in the oval? I can't wait 237 00:12:28,120 --> 00:12:30,160 Speaker 2: to see this. Of course, if they allow the reporters 238 00:12:30,200 --> 00:12:32,440 Speaker 2: in stay with us on Balance of Power, we'll have 239 00:12:32,559 --> 00:12:33,959 Speaker 2: much more coming up after this. 240 00:12:39,360 --> 00:12:42,840 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 241 00:12:42,880 --> 00:12:45,880 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on 242 00:12:46,040 --> 00:12:49,280 Speaker 1: Apple Coarclay, and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 243 00:12:49,440 --> 00:12:52,720 Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 244 00:12:52,800 --> 00:12:54,360 Speaker 1: us live on YouTube. 245 00:12:55,559 --> 00:12:58,520 Speaker 2: The backdrop for some pretty serious business coming out of 246 00:12:58,520 --> 00:13:00,520 Speaker 2: the White House today. We've been talking for now about 247 00:13:00,520 --> 00:13:02,679 Speaker 2: this twenty eight point piece plan for Ukraine, one that 248 00:13:02,760 --> 00:13:05,320 Speaker 2: Ukraine apparently was not consulted on, and we've had some 249 00:13:05,360 --> 00:13:09,000 Speaker 2: pretty good discussions about it this week, knowing that most 250 00:13:09,280 --> 00:13:13,000 Speaker 2: of this plan is a non starter for Ukraine giving 251 00:13:13,080 --> 00:13:15,560 Speaker 2: up the land that's been occupied, and then some by 252 00:13:15,640 --> 00:13:19,080 Speaker 2: Russia limiting its ability to defend itself promising to never 253 00:13:19,880 --> 00:13:22,920 Speaker 2: join NATO. But a lot has happened just in the 254 00:13:23,000 --> 00:13:26,559 Speaker 2: last twenty four hours on this with an ultimatum effectively 255 00:13:26,559 --> 00:13:28,480 Speaker 2: coming from the President he says, take it or leave 256 00:13:28,480 --> 00:13:31,680 Speaker 2: it by Thanksgiving less than a week away, and a 257 00:13:31,679 --> 00:13:35,800 Speaker 2: pretty remarkable flurry of phone calls for President Zelenski this 258 00:13:35,920 --> 00:13:36,560 Speaker 2: morning as well. 259 00:13:36,600 --> 00:13:38,600 Speaker 7: Well, that's right, and who knows where this will go, 260 00:13:38,720 --> 00:13:40,760 Speaker 7: Joe on the days ahead. But I want to pick 261 00:13:40,840 --> 00:13:43,920 Speaker 7: up on what you mentioned as ultimatin because if you 262 00:13:44,000 --> 00:13:46,559 Speaker 7: listen to what President Trump said this morning, he had 263 00:13:46,600 --> 00:13:49,040 Speaker 7: a very vintage Trump line. He says, I've had a 264 00:13:49,040 --> 00:13:51,880 Speaker 7: lot of deadlines, but if things are working well, you 265 00:13:51,960 --> 00:13:55,320 Speaker 7: tend to extend the deadline. So certainly keeping the door 266 00:13:55,400 --> 00:13:58,600 Speaker 7: open for some sort of conversation, some sort of agreement, 267 00:13:58,920 --> 00:14:01,560 Speaker 7: some sort of flexibility on what is being reported as 268 00:14:01,600 --> 00:14:03,640 Speaker 7: a very lopsided plan in Russia's favor. 269 00:14:03,679 --> 00:14:05,280 Speaker 3: That was his interview on Fox News Radio. 270 00:14:05,320 --> 00:14:05,600 Speaker 7: That's right. 271 00:14:05,640 --> 00:14:08,000 Speaker 2: We made a lot of news there this morning on 272 00:14:08,160 --> 00:14:10,839 Speaker 2: a number of topics with regard to this one. Though 273 00:14:10,880 --> 00:14:13,760 Speaker 2: we know that Zelenski has spoken today with JD Vance, 274 00:14:14,280 --> 00:14:16,680 Speaker 2: there was a call earlier. He is supposed to speak 275 00:14:16,960 --> 00:14:19,520 Speaker 2: in the days ahead with President Trump. Spoke with Mark 276 00:14:19,600 --> 00:14:22,480 Speaker 2: Ruda at NATO, and we understand he just spoke with 277 00:14:22,560 --> 00:14:26,080 Speaker 2: the Prime Minister of Germany. President Trump, I should say, 278 00:14:26,120 --> 00:14:28,640 Speaker 2: spoke with the Prime Minister of Germany, and it'd be 279 00:14:28,720 --> 00:14:31,720 Speaker 2: very curious to see his disposition coming. 280 00:14:31,640 --> 00:14:32,560 Speaker 3: Out of that meeting. 281 00:14:33,200 --> 00:14:36,240 Speaker 2: German US security advisors continued discussions. 282 00:14:36,280 --> 00:14:37,080 Speaker 3: The headline on the. 283 00:14:37,080 --> 00:14:40,520 Speaker 2: Terminal merged to brief European leaders on a call now 284 00:14:40,560 --> 00:14:42,520 Speaker 2: about what was said with Donald Trump. 285 00:14:42,640 --> 00:14:44,480 Speaker 7: Yeah, and we just don't know the reacts of the call. 286 00:14:44,520 --> 00:14:47,960 Speaker 7: It's also important to note that President Zelensky released an 287 00:14:47,960 --> 00:14:51,560 Speaker 7: address where he's talking about either losing his dignity or 288 00:14:52,000 --> 00:14:54,720 Speaker 7: losing the support of a key partner in the war, 289 00:14:54,800 --> 00:14:57,480 Speaker 7: namely the US. But he recorded that or released it 290 00:14:57,520 --> 00:15:00,960 Speaker 7: at least before he had the phone call with Vice 291 00:15:00,960 --> 00:15:03,480 Speaker 7: President van So there's a lot we have to learn 292 00:15:03,480 --> 00:15:07,320 Speaker 7: about how those conversations went today, which are as you say, ongoing. 293 00:15:07,000 --> 00:15:10,080 Speaker 2: The ultimatum does seem to be real, whether it's going 294 00:15:10,160 --> 00:15:14,280 Speaker 2: to be next Tuesday or some other point. As you suggest, Michelle, 295 00:15:14,280 --> 00:15:18,120 Speaker 2: the President has made it pretty clear to the point 296 00:15:18,160 --> 00:15:20,360 Speaker 2: where Zelenski is calling this one of the most difficult 297 00:15:20,440 --> 00:15:21,560 Speaker 2: moments in our history. 298 00:15:21,840 --> 00:15:24,880 Speaker 3: The threat is to cut off weapons support. 299 00:15:24,680 --> 00:15:27,720 Speaker 2: And there's not much left of that, but also intelligence support, 300 00:15:27,720 --> 00:15:30,920 Speaker 2: which has really helped to keep Ukraine afloat in this fight, 301 00:15:30,960 --> 00:15:34,760 Speaker 2: beyond the hardware that would all presumably go away by 302 00:15:34,840 --> 00:15:36,760 Speaker 2: Thursday if this deal doesn't happen. 303 00:15:36,920 --> 00:15:40,120 Speaker 7: Yeah, it's unclear how that leverage is going to play out, 304 00:15:40,200 --> 00:15:42,960 Speaker 7: but of course we've seen that being pushed on both 305 00:15:42,960 --> 00:15:45,720 Speaker 7: sides by President Trump, you know, trying to leverage Putin 306 00:15:45,800 --> 00:15:48,160 Speaker 7: into getting it to a deal. Now he's putting more 307 00:15:48,160 --> 00:15:51,320 Speaker 7: pressure on Zelenski. He's been quite a roller coaster this. 308 00:15:51,400 --> 00:15:52,840 Speaker 3: Year, is that for sure? 309 00:15:52,880 --> 00:15:56,040 Speaker 2: I'm glad to say that we have Megan O'Sullivan with 310 00:15:56,160 --> 00:15:58,800 Speaker 2: us here to talk about a former Deputy National Security 311 00:15:58,800 --> 00:16:01,440 Speaker 2: Advisor and the George W. Bush administration, our director of 312 00:16:01,480 --> 00:16:03,320 Speaker 2: the Harvard Belfare Center. 313 00:16:03,440 --> 00:16:05,000 Speaker 3: Megan, it's great to see you. 314 00:16:05,520 --> 00:16:08,480 Speaker 2: I'm curious your thoughts on the ultimatum and whether next 315 00:16:08,480 --> 00:16:09,360 Speaker 2: Thursday is real. 316 00:16:11,240 --> 00:16:13,960 Speaker 8: I find it very hard to believe that a proposal 317 00:16:14,080 --> 00:16:17,840 Speaker 8: this far reaching could be hammered out in a way 318 00:16:18,000 --> 00:16:21,040 Speaker 8: that would be agreeable not just to the Russians and 319 00:16:21,080 --> 00:16:25,440 Speaker 8: the Ukrainians, but to the Europeans in some fashion as well. 320 00:16:25,800 --> 00:16:29,000 Speaker 8: I personally and diplomacy am a big believer in putting 321 00:16:29,880 --> 00:16:33,400 Speaker 8: hardcore ideas on the table as a starting point. But 322 00:16:33,520 --> 00:16:37,760 Speaker 8: expecting that it could be resolved and that these issues 323 00:16:37,800 --> 00:16:41,160 Speaker 8: could be negotiated by Thursday seems inconceivable to me. 324 00:16:42,600 --> 00:16:44,640 Speaker 7: Well, Megan, let's talk about the pressure on the other side, 325 00:16:44,760 --> 00:16:48,160 Speaker 7: because we have the two Russian oil giants that are 326 00:16:48,160 --> 00:16:49,960 Speaker 7: supposed to be sanctioned as of today. 327 00:16:50,120 --> 00:16:50,360 Speaker 8: Now. 328 00:16:50,560 --> 00:16:53,560 Speaker 7: President Trump said this morning that it would happen very soon. 329 00:16:53,640 --> 00:16:56,800 Speaker 7: We're not clear on what that means. The first question 330 00:16:56,920 --> 00:16:59,160 Speaker 7: is are those sanctions going to go into effect? 331 00:16:59,160 --> 00:16:59,520 Speaker 8: Do you think? 332 00:16:59,600 --> 00:17:03,920 Speaker 7: And secondly, perhaps more importantly, do those sanctions work? We've 333 00:17:03,960 --> 00:17:07,320 Speaker 7: seen this time and again administrations that you worked for 334 00:17:07,520 --> 00:17:09,800 Speaker 7: and all up into the current one. 335 00:17:10,119 --> 00:17:11,080 Speaker 3: Is this going to work? 336 00:17:12,480 --> 00:17:16,240 Speaker 8: So several questions there. One, are those sanctions going to 337 00:17:16,280 --> 00:17:18,399 Speaker 8: go into place? I would say we don't know at 338 00:17:18,400 --> 00:17:22,320 Speaker 8: this point. The whole proposal is a little bit of 339 00:17:22,320 --> 00:17:25,040 Speaker 8: a surprise, because it really did seem that President Trump 340 00:17:25,119 --> 00:17:28,360 Speaker 8: was moving in the direction where he understood that Putin 341 00:17:28,560 --> 00:17:31,399 Speaker 8: was playing him to some extent, and so there was 342 00:17:31,400 --> 00:17:34,919 Speaker 8: that momentum to put more economic pressure on Russia. My 343 00:17:35,040 --> 00:17:37,640 Speaker 8: guess is that there'll be some kind of suspension while 344 00:17:37,680 --> 00:17:40,200 Speaker 8: this is being worked out, and while as long as 345 00:17:40,200 --> 00:17:44,040 Speaker 8: there are genuine negotiations going on around these ideas in 346 00:17:44,080 --> 00:17:48,400 Speaker 8: the twenty eighth point plan. Now, do these sanctions work 347 00:17:48,400 --> 00:17:51,320 Speaker 8: if they are put into place, that's a big question 348 00:17:51,520 --> 00:17:54,920 Speaker 8: in the sense of do they work. Will they will 349 00:17:54,960 --> 00:18:01,320 Speaker 8: they lead Russia to be more accommodate is hard to know, 350 00:18:01,480 --> 00:18:04,960 Speaker 8: but they will have an effect on Russia's economy. So 351 00:18:05,240 --> 00:18:08,840 Speaker 8: these sanctions, we've had sanctions in a place on Russia 352 00:18:09,080 --> 00:18:11,440 Speaker 8: now for three and a half years, as as a 353 00:18:11,520 --> 00:18:14,840 Speaker 8: European and many other countries. They have had an effect, 354 00:18:15,160 --> 00:18:18,480 Speaker 8: but they haven't been implemented very strongly, and so this 355 00:18:18,560 --> 00:18:21,520 Speaker 8: is a move in the direction for more economic pressure. 356 00:18:21,680 --> 00:18:24,880 Speaker 8: There's frankly a lot more that could be done with sanctions, 357 00:18:24,880 --> 00:18:28,800 Speaker 8: and they could be implemented even more aggressively that would 358 00:18:28,880 --> 00:18:32,240 Speaker 8: create more economic pressure on Putin and the extent to 359 00:18:32,280 --> 00:18:34,960 Speaker 8: which that will change his calculations on something that he 360 00:18:35,080 --> 00:18:39,440 Speaker 8: sees as existential to his rule and to his legacy 361 00:18:39,720 --> 00:18:40,600 Speaker 8: is another question. 362 00:18:41,840 --> 00:18:45,520 Speaker 2: We learned the President spoke with German Chancellor Murr's a 363 00:18:45,520 --> 00:18:49,880 Speaker 2: short time ago. Megan, I'm curious what Murrz thinks of this, 364 00:18:50,040 --> 00:18:53,080 Speaker 2: what Macron thinks of this, what Starmer makes of this deal. 365 00:18:54,600 --> 00:18:57,280 Speaker 8: I think what we're seeing is the European leaders in 366 00:18:57,320 --> 00:19:01,320 Speaker 8: private are probably very alarmed. In public, I think they're 367 00:19:01,400 --> 00:19:05,480 Speaker 8: taking the appropriate approach to say, let's see if we 368 00:19:05,600 --> 00:19:08,960 Speaker 8: can come to an agreement that creates a just and 369 00:19:09,040 --> 00:19:12,520 Speaker 8: lasting piece. And that's what the UK Prime Minister KR 370 00:19:12,600 --> 00:19:15,200 Speaker 8: Starmer said on his way to the G twenty meetings 371 00:19:15,600 --> 00:19:19,720 Speaker 8: that we're all interested in the same objective. Now, this 372 00:19:19,880 --> 00:19:23,760 Speaker 8: agreement or this proposal as we've seen it and the 373 00:19:23,800 --> 00:19:27,800 Speaker 8: provisions discussed, has major implications for Europe. This is not 374 00:19:27,920 --> 00:19:32,000 Speaker 8: just about Ukraine. This essentially would say that NATO can 375 00:19:32,040 --> 00:19:35,200 Speaker 8: no longer expand keep in mind that Sweden and Finland 376 00:19:35,440 --> 00:19:38,600 Speaker 8: just joined NATO last year. This is something that the 377 00:19:38,640 --> 00:19:41,399 Speaker 8: Europeans will want to have a say in. It also 378 00:19:41,760 --> 00:19:46,840 Speaker 8: limits and downsizes what is currently Europe's largest and most 379 00:19:46,920 --> 00:19:52,080 Speaker 8: battle tested and probably most technologically innovative military on the 380 00:19:52,240 --> 00:19:55,880 Speaker 8: entire continent. So that is something that the Europeans will 381 00:19:55,880 --> 00:19:59,159 Speaker 8: have a major interest in. It also, as I understand it, 382 00:19:59,640 --> 00:20:03,280 Speaker 8: commit the Europeans to funding a significant part of the 383 00:20:03,359 --> 00:20:06,960 Speaker 8: Ukrainian reconstruction. That should be part of the incentive for 384 00:20:07,119 --> 00:20:10,240 Speaker 8: Ukrainians to agree to this. So the Europeans may have 385 00:20:10,320 --> 00:20:15,080 Speaker 8: been treated as if they're superfluous to this agreement, but 386 00:20:15,160 --> 00:20:19,439 Speaker 8: they're not. They're actually their interests are very core. The 387 00:20:19,520 --> 00:20:22,800 Speaker 8: idea that one could promise to putin and to Russia 388 00:20:23,119 --> 00:20:26,800 Speaker 8: that Russia will be integrated into the global economy if 389 00:20:26,920 --> 00:20:30,480 Speaker 8: Europe is offside, I think, is not a realistic one. 390 00:20:30,760 --> 00:20:34,040 Speaker 8: You just have to think of how Iran was promised 391 00:20:34,040 --> 00:20:36,840 Speaker 8: that it would be integrated into the global economy after 392 00:20:37,320 --> 00:20:40,439 Speaker 8: the nuclear deal under prison Obama, and that didn't happen 393 00:20:40,520 --> 00:20:42,840 Speaker 8: for a whole lot of reasons, even though the US 394 00:20:42,880 --> 00:20:44,600 Speaker 8: administration really wanted to see it. 395 00:20:45,720 --> 00:20:47,639 Speaker 2: Megan, I just want to step in with some breaking 396 00:20:47,680 --> 00:20:50,320 Speaker 2: news here that just crossed the terminal. A red headline 397 00:20:50,400 --> 00:20:53,399 Speaker 2: on Nvidia, of all companies, of course, a big newsmaker 398 00:20:53,440 --> 00:20:56,560 Speaker 2: this week for the better with regard to its earnings report. 399 00:20:56,600 --> 00:20:58,880 Speaker 2: It was dogged in the sell off yesterday. It's back 400 00:20:58,960 --> 00:21:01,679 Speaker 2: up today and rise on a headline, and Vidia shares 401 00:21:01,680 --> 00:21:06,439 Speaker 2: climbing to session high as US officials have early discussions 402 00:21:06,480 --> 00:21:09,240 Speaker 2: about whether to allow the company to sell it's H 403 00:21:09,359 --> 00:21:14,560 Speaker 2: two hundred artificial intelligence chips to China the H twenties here. 404 00:21:15,040 --> 00:21:16,720 Speaker 3: Pretty interesting moment to see. 405 00:21:16,560 --> 00:21:19,600 Speaker 2: In Vidia shares now really taking off on this news, 406 00:21:19,680 --> 00:21:23,119 Speaker 2: up almost two percent more than three dollars. Broadcom is 407 00:21:23,240 --> 00:21:25,960 Speaker 2: just barely positive right now, and AMD is up about 408 00:21:26,000 --> 00:21:28,960 Speaker 2: a half percent. A redhead on in Nvidia. It's something 409 00:21:29,000 --> 00:21:31,359 Speaker 2: that we're going to be talking about here with regard 410 00:21:31,400 --> 00:21:35,080 Speaker 2: to export controls and national security, whether we're talking about 411 00:21:35,200 --> 00:21:38,480 Speaker 2: China or Saudi Arabia, Michelle, the stories seem to start 412 00:21:38,520 --> 00:21:39,960 Speaker 2: bumping into each other here well for. 413 00:21:39,880 --> 00:21:41,720 Speaker 7: Sure, and it all goes back to this argument of 414 00:21:41,760 --> 00:21:44,680 Speaker 7: tech transfers and can you always be sure that race 415 00:21:44,760 --> 00:21:48,359 Speaker 7: pledges can remain in place and provide the national security 416 00:21:48,359 --> 00:21:49,320 Speaker 7: protections that we need. 417 00:21:49,960 --> 00:21:53,040 Speaker 2: Megan O'Sullivan, of course, coming from her role as a 418 00:21:53,119 --> 00:21:57,720 Speaker 2: former deputy National Security advisor, probably has some thoughts about this. Megan, 419 00:21:57,720 --> 00:21:59,080 Speaker 2: I don't mean to sneak up with you on that. 420 00:21:59,160 --> 00:22:01,720 Speaker 2: But there are concerns here in Washington that we're mortgaging 421 00:22:01,760 --> 00:22:05,480 Speaker 2: our national security when it comes to providing AI chips 422 00:22:05,680 --> 00:22:08,440 Speaker 2: like these F thirty five's to Saudi Arabia. 423 00:22:08,520 --> 00:22:09,399 Speaker 3: Where do you fall on it? 424 00:22:10,600 --> 00:22:13,359 Speaker 8: Yeah, I think this is a very large concern on 425 00:22:13,440 --> 00:22:15,720 Speaker 8: the part of Washington. I think some of it goes 426 00:22:15,960 --> 00:22:18,600 Speaker 8: not I think I'm aware like some of this goes 427 00:22:18,640 --> 00:22:22,159 Speaker 8: to how far ahead you think China is. Is it 428 00:22:22,320 --> 00:22:26,000 Speaker 8: actually very close to reaching or matching the US capability 429 00:22:26,040 --> 00:22:27,720 Speaker 8: when it comes to these chips and it comes to 430 00:22:27,760 --> 00:22:30,280 Speaker 8: the development of AI. And if you think it is 431 00:22:30,400 --> 00:22:33,920 Speaker 8: right on America's heels, then maybe you think allowing them 432 00:22:33,960 --> 00:22:37,760 Speaker 8: to import very high end chips is not going to 433 00:22:37,840 --> 00:22:39,280 Speaker 8: change the landscape very much. 434 00:22:39,800 --> 00:22:41,440 Speaker 5: But I am much. 435 00:22:41,280 --> 00:22:45,159 Speaker 8: More sympathetic to the argument that America still has a 436 00:22:45,160 --> 00:22:49,480 Speaker 8: substantial lead and keeping high end chips from China for 437 00:22:49,600 --> 00:22:52,639 Speaker 8: as long as we can is probably in our national 438 00:22:52,680 --> 00:22:56,120 Speaker 8: security interests. Now, that doesn't mean that we can keep 439 00:22:56,240 --> 00:23:00,000 Speaker 8: China from developing AI and that it won't make progress 440 00:23:00,160 --> 00:23:03,639 Speaker 8: over time, but export controls have been a very important 441 00:23:03,680 --> 00:23:07,520 Speaker 8: part of our ability to maintain a technological edge, which 442 00:23:07,600 --> 00:23:09,879 Speaker 8: I believe the US still maintains. 443 00:23:11,200 --> 00:23:11,400 Speaker 9: Well. 444 00:23:11,400 --> 00:23:14,359 Speaker 7: Megan is there's also this kind of prosperity argument on 445 00:23:14,400 --> 00:23:17,359 Speaker 7: the part of particularly those from Silicon Valley, that say, 446 00:23:17,600 --> 00:23:20,119 Speaker 7: including Jensen Huang, that say that you can provide this 447 00:23:20,200 --> 00:23:24,000 Speaker 7: technology with the protections and actually the benefits outweigh any 448 00:23:24,040 --> 00:23:26,520 Speaker 7: of those risks which they see as diminished. How do 449 00:23:26,560 --> 00:23:27,439 Speaker 7: you respond to that. 450 00:23:29,160 --> 00:23:32,719 Speaker 8: Well, I think how I would respond to that is 451 00:23:34,520 --> 00:23:37,080 Speaker 8: I would like to see some more data on that. 452 00:23:37,119 --> 00:23:40,640 Speaker 8: I think Jensen Wang, you know, clearly has an interest 453 00:23:40,680 --> 00:23:45,600 Speaker 8: in expanding sales into China for reasons that are clear. 454 00:23:46,119 --> 00:23:49,439 Speaker 8: And whether or not this is a prosperity argument in 455 00:23:49,440 --> 00:23:53,000 Speaker 8: the sense a global prosperity argument, I think really overlooks 456 00:23:53,080 --> 00:23:57,399 Speaker 8: the key dynamic in the global international system, which is 457 00:23:57,480 --> 00:24:01,120 Speaker 8: the competitive dynamic between the United States and and that 458 00:24:01,200 --> 00:24:03,800 Speaker 8: dynamic is not going to be glossed over. It's not 459 00:24:04,000 --> 00:24:07,919 Speaker 8: going to be diminished simply because we lift export controls 460 00:24:08,280 --> 00:24:13,480 Speaker 8: on our most sensitive technologies. That dynamic is going to maintain, 461 00:24:13,760 --> 00:24:16,760 Speaker 8: be maintained, and be one of the fiercest competitions in 462 00:24:16,800 --> 00:24:20,199 Speaker 8: the global arena for the coming years. And technology is 463 00:24:20,240 --> 00:24:24,280 Speaker 8: the key component of that competition between the US and China, 464 00:24:24,640 --> 00:24:27,879 Speaker 8: and I think, you know, selling high end chips is 465 00:24:27,920 --> 00:24:30,960 Speaker 8: not going to make that dynamic disappear. It just might 466 00:24:31,160 --> 00:24:34,639 Speaker 8: yield one of America's competitive edges. 467 00:24:36,359 --> 00:24:38,320 Speaker 7: Well, Megan, as I understand, I don't want to turn 468 00:24:38,400 --> 00:24:41,960 Speaker 7: away from this conversation, which is an important one, but 469 00:24:42,600 --> 00:24:45,720 Speaker 7: when we look at South Africa today, this week, we're 470 00:24:45,760 --> 00:24:48,000 Speaker 7: headed into a weekend where the US will not be 471 00:24:48,119 --> 00:24:50,679 Speaker 7: present at the G twenty. You've done a lot of 472 00:24:50,680 --> 00:24:52,320 Speaker 7: work at the Belfer Center at what you call the 473 00:24:52,359 --> 00:24:53,120 Speaker 7: Middle Powers. 474 00:24:53,400 --> 00:24:54,960 Speaker 3: I want to know what is your reaction to that. 475 00:24:55,280 --> 00:24:58,679 Speaker 7: How do you frame this snub in the context of 476 00:24:58,720 --> 00:25:01,840 Speaker 7: what it means for the world powers and for the US. 477 00:25:02,720 --> 00:25:05,200 Speaker 8: So thanks for mentioning the work that we do here 478 00:25:05,240 --> 00:25:07,879 Speaker 8: at Belfer on Middle Powers. It's a new project that 479 00:25:08,000 --> 00:25:12,960 Speaker 8: really acknowledges they're a large number of powerful countries. For 480 00:25:13,160 --> 00:25:16,280 Speaker 8: those of you my age and older, you know, certainly 481 00:25:16,320 --> 00:25:18,600 Speaker 8: we used to think about non aligned powers and they 482 00:25:18,640 --> 00:25:22,800 Speaker 8: weren't really consequential. But middle powers today are those countries 483 00:25:22,840 --> 00:25:25,960 Speaker 8: that have prospered over the last thirty years, the Brazil, 484 00:25:26,119 --> 00:25:31,399 Speaker 8: Saudi Arabia, South Africa's, Indonesia's others that actually have a 485 00:25:31,440 --> 00:25:34,399 Speaker 8: real influence on the global economy, have an influence on 486 00:25:34,440 --> 00:25:38,800 Speaker 8: global issues like climate and trade and technology, and they 487 00:25:38,840 --> 00:25:41,560 Speaker 8: are core to the G twenty. And so for the 488 00:25:41,680 --> 00:25:44,560 Speaker 8: US to snub the G twenty, I think is not 489 00:25:45,160 --> 00:25:49,199 Speaker 8: very forward looking because right now the US and China 490 00:25:49,400 --> 00:25:53,520 Speaker 8: are involved not only in that competitive dynamic with one another, 491 00:25:53,880 --> 00:25:58,600 Speaker 8: they're involved in competing for the alliance. The friendship and 492 00:25:58,640 --> 00:26:01,720 Speaker 8: the sympathy of these middle powers matter more and more. 493 00:26:03,359 --> 00:26:07,120 Speaker 2: Megan, thank you so much, the former Deputy National Security Advisor, 494 00:26:07,560 --> 00:26:09,320 Speaker 2: director of the Harvard Belfort Center. 495 00:26:09,440 --> 00:26:11,600 Speaker 3: Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much 496 00:26:11,640 --> 00:26:12,840 Speaker 3: more coming up after this. 497 00:26:17,119 --> 00:26:20,600 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 498 00:26:20,680 --> 00:26:24,160 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, 499 00:26:24,200 --> 00:26:27,240 Speaker 1: Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You 500 00:26:27,240 --> 00:26:30,720 Speaker 1: can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship 501 00:26:30,800 --> 00:26:34,960 Speaker 1: New York station. Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 502 00:26:36,119 --> 00:26:39,639 Speaker 2: And we're basically the reverse of what we had this 503 00:26:39,720 --> 00:26:42,320 Speaker 2: time yesterday. This has been a remarkable recovery. If this 504 00:26:42,359 --> 00:26:44,760 Speaker 2: thing holds until four o'clock, there's going to be some 505 00:26:44,800 --> 00:26:48,160 Speaker 2: fun reading to do a little bit later on SP 506 00:26:48,200 --> 00:26:50,480 Speaker 2: five hundred up over one percent. Same for the Nasdaq. 507 00:26:50,600 --> 00:26:52,680 Speaker 2: The dows up over one and a half percent, seven 508 00:26:52,760 --> 00:26:54,800 Speaker 2: hundred points. These are going to make for great headlines 509 00:26:54,880 --> 00:26:58,640 Speaker 2: later and they'll say, you know, retailers, they couldn't avoid 510 00:26:58,680 --> 00:27:02,440 Speaker 2: the opportunity to buy the dip. Bitcoin is still lower, 511 00:27:02,480 --> 00:27:06,200 Speaker 2: it's down about two thousand dollars back above eighty five thousand. 512 00:27:06,920 --> 00:27:09,320 Speaker 3: You got a VIXA twenty four. That's not exactly low. 513 00:27:09,680 --> 00:27:11,800 Speaker 2: So we're trying to figure out what in the world 514 00:27:11,880 --> 00:27:14,440 Speaker 2: is going on and what happened in the last twenty 515 00:27:14,440 --> 00:27:16,520 Speaker 2: four hours that has brought us all the way back 516 00:27:16,560 --> 00:27:18,800 Speaker 2: to where we were feeling pretty good about things yesterday 517 00:27:18,800 --> 00:27:21,399 Speaker 2: morning after the Nvidia report. Now some people will tell 518 00:27:21,440 --> 00:27:25,440 Speaker 2: you it's comments from the Fed. The Duvish FED will 519 00:27:25,640 --> 00:27:28,159 Speaker 2: be cutting rates next month, So don't worry because a 520 00:27:28,240 --> 00:27:30,159 Speaker 2: quarter percentage point is going to make that much of 521 00:27:30,160 --> 00:27:30,840 Speaker 2: a difference for you. 522 00:27:30,960 --> 00:27:31,360 Speaker 3: Right now. 523 00:27:31,920 --> 00:27:35,000 Speaker 2: Stephen Myron talked about it even against the backdrop of 524 00:27:35,480 --> 00:27:38,879 Speaker 2: no data. Did you hear the canceling another CPI. We 525 00:27:38,920 --> 00:27:42,280 Speaker 2: didn't get October jobs, and so you have a Duvish FED. 526 00:27:42,480 --> 00:27:45,080 Speaker 2: According to Myra, and here's what he said on Bloomberg Surveillance. 527 00:27:45,680 --> 00:27:48,000 Speaker 10: The lack of data doesn't mean that we don't have 528 00:27:48,000 --> 00:27:49,760 Speaker 10: a forecast. We did have a forecast, and all it 529 00:27:49,800 --> 00:27:52,280 Speaker 10: gives us as opportunities to falsify a forecast. And there 530 00:27:52,280 --> 00:27:55,119 Speaker 10: hasn't been anything in the data in the news, in 531 00:27:55,240 --> 00:27:58,399 Speaker 10: media stories, in private sector data, alternative data that's available 532 00:27:58,440 --> 00:27:59,960 Speaker 10: to us that would make us think that the four 533 00:28:00,080 --> 00:28:02,600 Speaker 10: cast has somehow nullified and there's been a big shock 534 00:28:02,640 --> 00:28:05,000 Speaker 10: to it. So, if anything, all the information that we've 535 00:28:05,000 --> 00:28:10,120 Speaker 10: gotten the interim since SEPTEMBERFMC has inclined to the Duvish. 536 00:28:09,840 --> 00:28:14,840 Speaker 2: Side, inclined to the Dubtish side. Time to buy right 537 00:28:15,200 --> 00:28:20,480 Speaker 2: a quarter percentage point that'll change everyone's lives. The thing is, 538 00:28:20,480 --> 00:28:22,800 Speaker 2: when you read market coverage from yesterday, depending on where 539 00:28:22,840 --> 00:28:24,960 Speaker 2: you look, you might hear about it was concerns that 540 00:28:25,000 --> 00:28:27,639 Speaker 2: the FED wouldn't cut right. That's why everyone decided to 541 00:28:27,640 --> 00:28:30,520 Speaker 2: sell their retirement plan yesterday over a quarter percentage point. 542 00:28:30,840 --> 00:28:33,480 Speaker 2: They'll tell you that there are worries about the AI spend, 543 00:28:33,600 --> 00:28:36,919 Speaker 2: that it's a bubble circular investing. Everyone all woke up 544 00:28:37,000 --> 00:28:39,880 Speaker 2: same morning after a glowing and video report and decided 545 00:28:39,880 --> 00:28:43,640 Speaker 2: to sell. There might be something else involved here, which 546 00:28:43,680 --> 00:28:46,400 Speaker 2: is why we wanted to talk to Edward Harrison, the 547 00:28:46,440 --> 00:28:49,880 Speaker 2: force behind the Everything Risk newsletter. This is the guy 548 00:28:49,960 --> 00:28:53,400 Speaker 2: you call at a moment like this because you should 549 00:28:53,440 --> 00:28:59,240 Speaker 2: be watching bitcoin crypto as maybe not the canary and 550 00:28:59,280 --> 00:29:01,560 Speaker 2: the coal mine. About the locust in the market. I 551 00:29:01,600 --> 00:29:04,680 Speaker 2: heard somebody use that term yesterday and it sounded good 552 00:29:04,680 --> 00:29:08,120 Speaker 2: to me. Let's see what Edward thinks, Bloomberg's senior strategist, 553 00:29:08,160 --> 00:29:10,680 Speaker 2: author of the Everything Risk newsletter. 554 00:29:10,720 --> 00:29:11,680 Speaker 3: It's great to have you back. 555 00:29:12,600 --> 00:29:16,120 Speaker 2: Let's get to some truth here because what we saw 556 00:29:16,360 --> 00:29:19,800 Speaker 2: in the crypto market may have played a huge role 557 00:29:19,800 --> 00:29:21,479 Speaker 2: in what we saw in every other market. 558 00:29:21,880 --> 00:29:24,200 Speaker 3: How does this come together for you? 559 00:29:23,400 --> 00:29:26,800 Speaker 9: You know, I think your intro Joe was right on 560 00:29:27,080 --> 00:29:31,200 Speaker 9: in that it comes together. In Vidia, you know, knocked 561 00:29:31,200 --> 00:29:34,160 Speaker 9: it out of the park. The market reaction was positive 562 00:29:34,200 --> 00:29:37,840 Speaker 9: to that, and then suddenly, you know, around eleven o'clock, 563 00:29:38,440 --> 00:29:41,440 Speaker 9: things started to fall apart, even after we got the 564 00:29:41,520 --> 00:29:45,120 Speaker 9: data on the jobs at eight thirty, you know, non 565 00:29:45,200 --> 00:29:49,120 Speaker 9: fund payrolls off. I think what happened is is that 566 00:29:49,280 --> 00:29:52,800 Speaker 9: there was you know, a bitcoin infected the rest of 567 00:29:52,840 --> 00:29:53,400 Speaker 9: the market. 568 00:29:53,600 --> 00:29:54,880 Speaker 5: Bitcoin was selling off. 569 00:29:54,920 --> 00:29:59,160 Speaker 9: It was doing a very bad thing for bitcoiners, and 570 00:29:59,480 --> 00:30:02,640 Speaker 9: they had to at collateral somewhere else they sold through stocks, 571 00:30:02,680 --> 00:30:07,120 Speaker 9: et cetera, and that precipitated a move. 572 00:30:07,200 --> 00:30:09,760 Speaker 2: And if you need to raise cash, what better place 573 00:30:09,800 --> 00:30:12,320 Speaker 2: to look than in Vidia that's been on fire for 574 00:30:12,360 --> 00:30:15,200 Speaker 2: the last several years exactly, not to mention the ecosystem 575 00:30:15,240 --> 00:30:15,600 Speaker 2: around it. 576 00:30:16,080 --> 00:30:19,400 Speaker 9: So, you know, people make up narratives, you know, when 577 00:30:19,440 --> 00:30:22,760 Speaker 9: the stings happen, they say, you know, all of these 578 00:30:22,840 --> 00:30:25,719 Speaker 9: different things that are happening, let's pin it on this 579 00:30:25,800 --> 00:30:26,240 Speaker 9: one thing. 580 00:30:26,400 --> 00:30:29,000 Speaker 5: Right. We can't say for sure one way or the other. 581 00:30:29,080 --> 00:30:30,080 Speaker 5: But what we do know. 582 00:30:30,160 --> 00:30:33,480 Speaker 9: Now is that the move that we had after in 583 00:30:33,600 --> 00:30:37,360 Speaker 9: Vidia and after the Job's report is now back to 584 00:30:37,400 --> 00:30:40,880 Speaker 9: where it was before after that twenty four hours. Yeah, 585 00:30:40,920 --> 00:30:44,600 Speaker 9: and Bitcoin is up off its lows. I mean it 586 00:30:44,680 --> 00:30:48,200 Speaker 9: got as low as below eighty one thousand. 587 00:30:47,840 --> 00:30:50,080 Speaker 2: Yeah, eighty We crack eighty one thousands, and people said, 588 00:30:50,080 --> 00:30:51,719 Speaker 2: oh man, we're going down in the mid seventies. We'll 589 00:30:51,760 --> 00:30:53,360 Speaker 2: be back in the mid sixties before you know it. 590 00:30:53,800 --> 00:30:56,040 Speaker 2: And the fact is that could still happen, right, And 591 00:30:56,120 --> 00:31:00,400 Speaker 2: how concerned should we be about a season that's supposed 592 00:31:00,440 --> 00:31:04,280 Speaker 2: to bring cheer to Wall Street being dampened by this 593 00:31:04,320 --> 00:31:05,120 Speaker 2: crypto market? 594 00:31:05,600 --> 00:31:05,800 Speaker 5: Yeah? 595 00:31:05,840 --> 00:31:08,680 Speaker 9: I think that the concern is definitely still there that 596 00:31:09,360 --> 00:31:15,440 Speaker 9: we had these crypto treasury companies that are actually borrowing 597 00:31:15,520 --> 00:31:18,959 Speaker 9: money in order to get into bitcoin. Micro Taylor's strategy 598 00:31:19,520 --> 00:31:20,640 Speaker 9: in particular. 599 00:31:20,360 --> 00:31:23,200 Speaker 2: Got bit minor. Now with the that's Tom Lee. He's 600 00:31:23,200 --> 00:31:26,840 Speaker 2: doing the same thing with Ether. So are these the 601 00:31:26,880 --> 00:31:29,960 Speaker 2: most at risk companies tied to crypto? 602 00:31:30,160 --> 00:31:30,360 Speaker 5: Yeah? 603 00:31:30,440 --> 00:31:33,280 Speaker 9: I mean because you're looking at a volatile act and 604 00:31:33,320 --> 00:31:37,880 Speaker 9: then you're looking at leverage in that asset. And we 605 00:31:37,960 --> 00:31:41,560 Speaker 9: know that when those two mix, if the asset drops, 606 00:31:41,560 --> 00:31:44,520 Speaker 9: then there are margin calls as we and it's not 607 00:31:44,600 --> 00:31:47,080 Speaker 9: just like mom and pop margin calls. We're talking about 608 00:31:47,240 --> 00:31:52,280 Speaker 9: you know, large institutional buyers and sellers, and they'll have 609 00:31:52,320 --> 00:31:55,160 Speaker 9: to sell into the market. And where that hits the 610 00:31:55,600 --> 00:31:59,240 Speaker 9: regular market, you know, the Nasdaq in particular, is where 611 00:31:59,400 --> 00:32:03,360 Speaker 9: they have other assets because they're not all only in bitcoin. 612 00:32:03,480 --> 00:32:07,160 Speaker 9: Now bitcoin as of twenty twenty four with the Bitcoin 613 00:32:07,240 --> 00:32:11,880 Speaker 9: ETFs right and you know stable coin from the Genius Act. 614 00:32:12,560 --> 00:32:18,000 Speaker 9: You know there's a nexus between stocks and bitcoin. 615 00:32:18,080 --> 00:32:22,240 Speaker 2: This is really something as opposed to that decentralized hedge. 616 00:32:22,800 --> 00:32:25,120 Speaker 2: Now it trades with the NASDAC apparently it trades like 617 00:32:25,120 --> 00:32:28,000 Speaker 2: in video. Which is interesting is that because of the 618 00:32:28,040 --> 00:32:32,600 Speaker 2: institutionalized nature of bitcoin. Now, what's the ETF effect? Because 619 00:32:32,640 --> 00:32:34,880 Speaker 2: I keep hearing you know, retail bros are run on 620 00:32:34,920 --> 00:32:37,200 Speaker 2: the market. Are what are the ets and the hedge 621 00:32:37,200 --> 00:32:37,720 Speaker 2: funds doing? 622 00:32:38,040 --> 00:32:38,240 Speaker 5: Yeah? 623 00:32:38,360 --> 00:32:42,320 Speaker 9: Well, you know, the thirty day correlation between Bitcoin and 624 00:32:42,400 --> 00:32:45,200 Speaker 9: the NASDAC is at the highest since twenty twenty two. 625 00:32:45,240 --> 00:32:45,680 Speaker 5: Look at that. 626 00:32:46,000 --> 00:32:49,800 Speaker 9: And if you look at the correlation pre twenty twenty 627 00:32:49,800 --> 00:32:53,280 Speaker 9: that's when we had the stimulus check rally, it was 628 00:32:53,360 --> 00:32:56,040 Speaker 9: like back and forth between positive and negative. Now it's 629 00:32:56,160 --> 00:33:01,760 Speaker 9: mostly positive between the Nasdaq and and Bitcoin, and so 630 00:33:02,800 --> 00:33:06,640 Speaker 9: you know, because of that, you can think that people 631 00:33:06,840 --> 00:33:09,840 Speaker 9: who are going into bitcoin are also going into other 632 00:33:09,960 --> 00:33:13,640 Speaker 9: risk assets in the same way. So that correlation means 633 00:33:13,720 --> 00:33:17,760 Speaker 9: that there's also going to be negativity when bitcoin sells off. 634 00:33:17,800 --> 00:33:20,720 Speaker 2: When you talk about retail investors as well, though, and 635 00:33:20,960 --> 00:33:23,840 Speaker 2: the so called wealth effect. Think about the people who 636 00:33:23,920 --> 00:33:26,280 Speaker 2: bought into bitcoin, who went through they got in their 637 00:33:26,280 --> 00:33:30,720 Speaker 2: fidelity account. They were going to be really responsible about it. Institutionalized. 638 00:33:30,760 --> 00:33:32,880 Speaker 2: They told me, this thing is on fire. The best 639 00:33:33,520 --> 00:33:36,080 Speaker 2: you buy in at one hundred and twenty thousand dollars 640 00:33:36,360 --> 00:33:38,840 Speaker 2: or whatever the heck. The peak was here, and all 641 00:33:38,880 --> 00:33:41,720 Speaker 2: you know is losses. That's a lot of people, even 642 00:33:42,000 --> 00:33:45,320 Speaker 2: who bought just after the election, all they know about 643 00:33:45,360 --> 00:33:48,120 Speaker 2: crypto is losses. That's the kind of experience for a 644 00:33:48,160 --> 00:33:50,400 Speaker 2: young investor that kick them out of the market for life. 645 00:33:50,880 --> 00:33:53,360 Speaker 9: The thing is is that if you think back to 646 00:33:54,080 --> 00:33:57,000 Speaker 9: a term that was used during the stimulus check valley, yeah, 647 00:33:57,120 --> 00:34:00,840 Speaker 9: diamond hands, Yes, right, yes, I think that people are 648 00:34:00,840 --> 00:34:02,000 Speaker 9: going to be saying you have to have. 649 00:34:01,960 --> 00:34:04,520 Speaker 5: Diamond hands, so it's time to holdle again. Exactly. 650 00:34:04,720 --> 00:34:05,120 Speaker 3: Wow. 651 00:34:05,320 --> 00:34:08,239 Speaker 9: So you know, just like with the meme stocks, yeah, 652 00:34:08,360 --> 00:34:10,120 Speaker 9: you need to like see it through. 653 00:34:10,440 --> 00:34:11,799 Speaker 5: I think people are going to say the same thing 654 00:34:11,800 --> 00:34:12,520 Speaker 5: about bitcoin. 655 00:34:12,640 --> 00:34:14,160 Speaker 3: That's why you've been a bit under it now. 656 00:34:14,360 --> 00:34:17,239 Speaker 9: Thomas Lee is talking about two hundred thousand by the 657 00:34:17,320 --> 00:34:18,680 Speaker 9: end of January exactly. 658 00:34:18,800 --> 00:34:21,880 Speaker 2: So Ethie Wood says a million dollars by what twenty 659 00:34:21,960 --> 00:34:24,520 Speaker 2: thirty or something like that. We can't seem to keep 660 00:34:24,560 --> 00:34:25,799 Speaker 2: this thing above one hundred grand. 661 00:34:26,160 --> 00:34:30,040 Speaker 9: So really, you've got to have some seriously negative information 662 00:34:30,160 --> 00:34:35,240 Speaker 9: from the US economy in order to shake the fervor 663 00:34:35,840 --> 00:34:38,879 Speaker 9: for risk of your assets. And I don't think that 664 00:34:38,360 --> 00:34:41,600 Speaker 9: that negative information is there, despite what Steven Myron was saying. 665 00:34:41,960 --> 00:34:44,440 Speaker 9: I think that the US economy is still doing well, 666 00:34:45,360 --> 00:34:47,279 Speaker 9: and that you know, because of the. 667 00:34:49,239 --> 00:34:52,520 Speaker 5: Stimulus that's coming to the US in twenty. 668 00:34:52,120 --> 00:34:56,840 Speaker 9: Twenty six and because of AI, we should expect the 669 00:34:56,960 --> 00:34:58,799 Speaker 9: US economy to continue to do well and that will 670 00:34:58,840 --> 00:35:02,080 Speaker 9: be very positive, not only for stocks, but also for bitcoin. 671 00:35:02,320 --> 00:35:05,280 Speaker 2: Really in that time, for the Trump impact on bitcoin 672 00:35:05,440 --> 00:35:07,280 Speaker 2: was very real coming off the election. 673 00:35:07,360 --> 00:35:08,279 Speaker 3: You just have to look at where we were. 674 00:35:08,360 --> 00:35:11,960 Speaker 2: I think it was about sixty seven thousand before Donald 675 00:35:12,000 --> 00:35:13,799 Speaker 2: Trump was elected, and this was going to be the 676 00:35:13,840 --> 00:35:18,000 Speaker 2: new Golden Age, right, this is America's crypto age. And 677 00:35:18,080 --> 00:35:20,480 Speaker 2: I wonder to what extent if any politics is playing 678 00:35:20,480 --> 00:35:22,120 Speaker 2: into this. You can't tell that now, right, this is 679 00:35:22,440 --> 00:35:23,360 Speaker 2: the unquantifiable. 680 00:35:23,640 --> 00:35:25,440 Speaker 5: It's the unquantifiable. 681 00:35:25,480 --> 00:35:28,799 Speaker 9: I would say that it's a double edged sword because obviously, 682 00:35:28,880 --> 00:35:32,320 Speaker 9: as soon as you make crypto available to everyone, when 683 00:35:32,600 --> 00:35:37,960 Speaker 9: assets go up, crypto will go up more in concert 684 00:35:37,960 --> 00:35:41,399 Speaker 9: with those assets than it would otherwise. Because now it's 685 00:35:41,440 --> 00:35:44,640 Speaker 9: not just crypto Burrows who are in the market, it's 686 00:35:45,040 --> 00:35:49,400 Speaker 9: every time Dick and Harry who's out there, and they 687 00:35:49,800 --> 00:35:55,040 Speaker 9: the interconnection creates the potential for bitcoin to be infected 688 00:35:55,080 --> 00:35:58,239 Speaker 9: by normal markets and vice versa. And I think we're 689 00:35:58,239 --> 00:35:59,960 Speaker 9: seeing the reverse right now. 690 00:36:00,200 --> 00:36:01,280 Speaker 3: This is really something. 691 00:36:01,320 --> 00:36:04,120 Speaker 2: I guess some shorts made money over the past couple 692 00:36:04,120 --> 00:36:06,120 Speaker 2: of days here. Of course, now they're all covering it. 693 00:36:06,160 --> 00:36:08,400 Speaker 2: Is this nothing more. You're gonna tell me when I 694 00:36:08,440 --> 00:36:10,200 Speaker 2: come in on Monday, when we're back in the tank. 695 00:36:10,239 --> 00:36:12,320 Speaker 3: This is nothing more than a short squeeze today. 696 00:36:13,200 --> 00:36:16,400 Speaker 9: The real question I think is with all this data 697 00:36:16,480 --> 00:36:20,360 Speaker 9: that we have a backlog, what happens between now and Friday. 698 00:36:20,880 --> 00:36:23,560 Speaker 9: The end of Friday is because you know, we could 699 00:36:23,680 --> 00:36:28,680 Speaker 9: close down. We just don't know. There's so much volatility 700 00:36:28,719 --> 00:36:32,359 Speaker 9: associated with the fact that we're getting these reports from 701 00:36:32,400 --> 00:36:36,440 Speaker 9: September at the same time that we're getting a coincident 702 00:36:36,560 --> 00:36:38,960 Speaker 9: data like we did yesterday with jobless claims, etc. 703 00:36:40,840 --> 00:36:42,120 Speaker 5: It could be a short squeeze. 704 00:36:42,120 --> 00:36:45,680 Speaker 9: We just don't know because until that backlog of data 705 00:36:45,760 --> 00:36:48,759 Speaker 9: is run through and we get a firm understanding of 706 00:36:48,760 --> 00:36:51,200 Speaker 9: where the US economy is. And also I would say 707 00:36:51,239 --> 00:36:53,839 Speaker 9: the holiday shopping season will play into that, yes, right 708 00:36:54,160 --> 00:36:58,480 Speaker 9: then we won't really know. You know what the macro 709 00:36:58,640 --> 00:36:59,920 Speaker 9: trend in the markets is. 710 00:37:00,040 --> 00:37:02,440 Speaker 3: This is a noisy place right now. In our remaining minute. 711 00:37:02,440 --> 00:37:06,399 Speaker 2: Then let's fast forward to next Friday, Black Friday. We're 712 00:37:06,440 --> 00:37:08,400 Speaker 2: going to wake up and see all these funny local 713 00:37:08,440 --> 00:37:10,719 Speaker 2: news reporters and their coats and hats standing in front 714 00:37:10,719 --> 00:37:12,800 Speaker 2: of Best Buy where no one is actually shopping. 715 00:37:14,440 --> 00:37:16,360 Speaker 3: Will that be the next leg in the market? 716 00:37:16,400 --> 00:37:19,840 Speaker 2: If these numbers are strong, Do we actually care about 717 00:37:19,840 --> 00:37:21,440 Speaker 2: holiday shopping the way we used to? 718 00:37:21,760 --> 00:37:25,360 Speaker 9: I think we do, because Number one, if you've opened 719 00:37:25,360 --> 00:37:28,880 Speaker 9: your inbox, you've gotten tons of early Black Yeah Friday 720 00:37:29,000 --> 00:37:34,080 Speaker 9: sales already too, you know, given the tariffs, it takes 721 00:37:34,120 --> 00:37:37,399 Speaker 9: on special meaning for retailers. And then the final thing 722 00:37:37,480 --> 00:37:39,960 Speaker 9: is is that the FED is going to cut. We're 723 00:37:40,080 --> 00:37:43,200 Speaker 9: pricing in about seventy percent chance of a cut now 724 00:37:43,600 --> 00:37:46,600 Speaker 9: it was before John Williams, the president of the New 725 00:37:46,680 --> 00:37:50,600 Speaker 9: York FED spoke earlier today more like thirty percent. So 726 00:37:50,640 --> 00:37:52,680 Speaker 9: we're still in that range where it could be a 727 00:37:52,719 --> 00:37:55,600 Speaker 9: cut or no cut. And I think that the retailed 728 00:37:55,719 --> 00:37:58,719 Speaker 9: data will be the last piece of really big data 729 00:37:58,760 --> 00:38:03,239 Speaker 9: they need. If it's bad, the FED might actually go 730 00:38:03,320 --> 00:38:03,839 Speaker 9: for a case. 731 00:38:03,880 --> 00:38:06,480 Speaker 2: So pay attention to those Adobe numbers on Black Friday. 732 00:38:06,520 --> 00:38:09,160 Speaker 2: It sounds like Edward Harrison. Where in the world are 733 00:38:09,160 --> 00:38:11,120 Speaker 2: you going to hear an interview like that other than Bloomberg? 734 00:38:11,160 --> 00:38:13,120 Speaker 2: We'd be fired if we did this anywhere else. Edward, 735 00:38:13,120 --> 00:38:14,920 Speaker 2: thank you so much. Great to see you as always. 736 00:38:15,000 --> 00:38:20,080 Speaker 2: I'll shake your hand on camera. Be Everything Risk Newsletter, Beware. 737 00:38:20,160 --> 00:38:22,680 Speaker 2: The story is that try to ascribe a daily move 738 00:38:22,719 --> 00:38:24,799 Speaker 2: in the market to a single point. I think that's 739 00:38:24,800 --> 00:38:27,840 Speaker 2: what we learned today on Bloomberg. Thanks for listening to 740 00:38:27,920 --> 00:38:31,279 Speaker 2: the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if 741 00:38:31,320 --> 00:38:34,040 Speaker 2: you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get 742 00:38:34,040 --> 00:38:37,080 Speaker 2: your podcasts, and you can find us live every weekday 743 00:38:37,120 --> 00:38:40,840 Speaker 2: from Washington, DC at Noontimeeastern at Bloomberg dot com.