1 00:00:05,640 --> 00:00:12,560 Speaker 1: What are we recording? Yeah, yeah, yeah, what the episode started? Now, 2 00:00:12,720 --> 00:00:14,840 Speaker 1: I was, I was, I was going to say something 3 00:00:15,560 --> 00:00:19,120 Speaker 1: something to do with Texas. But to be honest, you know, why, 4 00:00:19,200 --> 00:00:21,439 Speaker 1: why why do we do this? Why do we let ourselves, 5 00:00:21,680 --> 00:00:25,040 Speaker 1: you know, get famous for for for saying a particular 6 00:00:25,079 --> 00:00:27,640 Speaker 1: bit and then just keep repeating it over and over again. 7 00:00:28,000 --> 00:00:31,240 Speaker 1: Are we so creatively bankrupt that there's there's nothing else 8 00:00:31,440 --> 00:00:34,240 Speaker 1: we can do but repeat our greatest hits in order 9 00:00:34,280 --> 00:00:38,160 Speaker 1: to recapture some of the some of the the excitement 10 00:00:38,240 --> 00:00:42,720 Speaker 1: that we felt as younger men. Anyway, my co hosts 11 00:00:42,760 --> 00:00:47,680 Speaker 1: on this episode, James Stout and me along, welcome to 12 00:00:47,760 --> 00:00:48,599 Speaker 1: it could happen here. 13 00:00:51,200 --> 00:00:52,960 Speaker 2: Hi, rob It. I'm glad you're doing so well. 14 00:00:53,520 --> 00:00:56,400 Speaker 1: We're all doing great. James, You've just been having a 15 00:00:56,440 --> 00:01:00,800 Speaker 1: searing emotional experience at the border. Yeah mm hm. And 16 00:01:00,880 --> 00:01:03,800 Speaker 1: everyone else is busy living in the United States, which 17 00:01:03,840 --> 00:01:05,919 Speaker 1: is its own searing emotional experience. 18 00:01:06,560 --> 00:01:06,720 Speaker 3: Man. 19 00:01:06,840 --> 00:01:10,600 Speaker 1: Today, today we're going to be talking about the both 20 00:01:10,880 --> 00:01:20,760 Speaker 1: the most and least American state, Texas. Huzzah, Yeah, love you. Yeah, 21 00:01:20,680 --> 00:01:23,320 Speaker 1: who here has spent a lot of time in Texas. Garrison, 22 00:01:23,360 --> 00:01:25,440 Speaker 1: you lived in the Dallas area, right. 23 00:01:26,360 --> 00:01:28,800 Speaker 2: A lot that I I've made my visit to Texas 24 00:01:28,840 --> 00:01:31,920 Speaker 2: over the years with you, even in the murder House. 25 00:01:32,520 --> 00:01:35,920 Speaker 1: You and I have quaffed many a shiner bock together, 26 00:01:36,640 --> 00:01:40,680 Speaker 1: James Many. Okay, I guess we'll move into the fucking episode. 27 00:01:40,800 --> 00:01:44,800 Speaker 1: So uh, there was a There was a an email 28 00:01:44,880 --> 00:01:48,520 Speaker 1: sent out by Texas Democrats dot Org recently with the 29 00:01:48,560 --> 00:01:53,480 Speaker 1: title Texas moves from solid red to battleground. Sure, you know, 30 00:01:54,400 --> 00:01:58,720 Speaker 1: like clockwork. A lot of Democrats got very excited, and 31 00:01:59,640 --> 00:02:03,440 Speaker 1: I made a couple of people made posts being like, hey, 32 00:02:03,480 --> 00:02:06,080 Speaker 1: this is the same thing that happens every single election. 33 00:02:06,600 --> 00:02:09,760 Speaker 1: They are never right. Texas is never a battleground and 34 00:02:09,800 --> 00:02:12,239 Speaker 1: it always costs an insane amount of money. It is 35 00:02:12,280 --> 00:02:16,680 Speaker 1: a con by DC political consultants to get your money 36 00:02:17,040 --> 00:02:19,959 Speaker 1: and pump it into something that will fill up their 37 00:02:20,000 --> 00:02:24,160 Speaker 1: coffers and not achieve anything of value for the state 38 00:02:24,160 --> 00:02:27,119 Speaker 1: of Texas or for the Democrats nationwide. And this makes 39 00:02:27,120 --> 00:02:30,160 Speaker 1: people very angry for two reasons. One, they tend to 40 00:02:30,160 --> 00:02:33,080 Speaker 1: interpret it as saying abandon Texas and the people there, 41 00:02:33,120 --> 00:02:35,680 Speaker 1: which is not the statement I was making or anyone 42 00:02:35,680 --> 00:02:39,880 Speaker 1: else was making. And number two, everyone kind of obsessively 43 00:02:39,919 --> 00:02:42,639 Speaker 1: starts pointing out like, look, look at how over the 44 00:02:42,720 --> 00:02:45,960 Speaker 1: last thirty years, you know, the things have narrowed in 45 00:02:46,040 --> 00:02:51,680 Speaker 1: Texas and the proportion of like Democratic votes is raised. 46 00:02:52,040 --> 00:02:54,360 Speaker 1: This is winnable. We can do it. We can do it. 47 00:02:55,480 --> 00:02:59,480 Speaker 1: We're going to talk today about why anyone who talks 48 00:02:59,520 --> 00:03:02,320 Speaker 1: to you about flipping Texas as a political goal that 49 00:03:02,360 --> 00:03:06,040 Speaker 1: you should give money to is conning you, and not 50 00:03:06,080 --> 00:03:09,360 Speaker 1: only conning you, but making it actually more difficult for 51 00:03:09,639 --> 00:03:13,040 Speaker 1: Democrats to win, both in Texas and nationwide. That's that's 52 00:03:13,120 --> 00:03:15,360 Speaker 1: that's the premise of the episode, everybody. 53 00:03:15,880 --> 00:03:18,320 Speaker 4: Here's here's how Bernie can still win. Though at the 54 00:03:18,400 --> 00:03:19,520 Speaker 4: very end we will give you. 55 00:03:20,000 --> 00:03:23,040 Speaker 1: Yeah, We're gonna let you know he's got a shot. Look, 56 00:03:23,400 --> 00:03:27,280 Speaker 1: look if he if he is capable of putting another 57 00:03:27,400 --> 00:03:31,840 Speaker 1: three rounds of six point five into a dinner plate 58 00:03:31,919 --> 00:03:38,400 Speaker 1: sized target at one hundred and fifty yards, now that 59 00:03:38,520 --> 00:03:41,480 Speaker 1: was a that was anyway, he'd have to shoot a 60 00:03:41,480 --> 00:03:42,560 Speaker 1: lot of people to make. 61 00:03:42,520 --> 00:03:48,240 Speaker 4: He's going to deploy bought a joy into a. 62 00:03:48,440 --> 00:03:54,119 Speaker 2: Name, absolutely not. 63 00:03:54,840 --> 00:03:58,000 Speaker 1: Person. So I want to talk about this because I 64 00:03:58,360 --> 00:04:02,240 Speaker 1: find it, like I think people tend to interpret this. 65 00:04:02,400 --> 00:04:04,600 Speaker 1: I've certainly gotten accused of like, oh, you're just kind 66 00:04:04,600 --> 00:04:07,680 Speaker 1: of being like a nihilist. This is you're being you know, 67 00:04:07,800 --> 00:04:10,640 Speaker 1: just an anti electoralist. You're not being practical. There was 68 00:04:10,680 --> 00:04:13,280 Speaker 1: a there was one particular guy who's like a local 69 00:04:13,560 --> 00:04:17,840 Speaker 1: Democratic candidate who responded seven times to my tweet being 70 00:04:17,960 --> 00:04:21,880 Speaker 1: like with variations, and his obsession was like, if we 71 00:04:21,920 --> 00:04:25,560 Speaker 1: win Texas, it's impossible for the GOP to win national elections, 72 00:04:25,560 --> 00:04:29,279 Speaker 1: which is true. If theoretically the Democrats flipped Texas, the 73 00:04:29,360 --> 00:04:32,719 Speaker 1: GOP would have no chance at winning a federal election ever. Again. 74 00:04:32,839 --> 00:04:36,080 Speaker 3: Yeah, and so simultaneous to this, right, if the Republican 75 00:04:36,240 --> 00:04:38,800 Speaker 3: there are more Republicans in California than there are basically 76 00:04:38,839 --> 00:04:40,760 Speaker 3: any other state in the Union, and if the Republicans 77 00:04:40,760 --> 00:04:43,159 Speaker 3: won California, they would they would win every election forever. 78 00:04:43,279 --> 00:04:46,880 Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, yeah, happen. Not going to happen. I mean, 79 00:04:46,880 --> 00:04:48,880 Speaker 1: it's it's one of those things. I am not saying 80 00:04:49,080 --> 00:04:53,640 Speaker 1: Texas will never be a blue state. You know, that 81 00:04:53,760 --> 00:04:57,039 Speaker 1: is something that is possible, even likely, given enough time. 82 00:04:57,520 --> 00:04:59,880 Speaker 1: What I am saying, the argument that I'm making here, 83 00:05:00,000 --> 00:05:02,800 Speaker 1: and I'll provide you with evidence, is that number one, 84 00:05:03,480 --> 00:05:06,040 Speaker 1: focusing on these elections from the top down and when 85 00:05:06,080 --> 00:05:08,559 Speaker 1: you're saying, we want to flip Texas. That's a top 86 00:05:08,600 --> 00:05:12,320 Speaker 1: down approach, right. You are not focusing on we want 87 00:05:12,360 --> 00:05:15,280 Speaker 1: to fill up and win a bunch of different local elections. 88 00:05:15,279 --> 00:05:17,640 Speaker 1: We want to flip, you know, the state houses. We 89 00:05:17,680 --> 00:05:21,360 Speaker 1: want to flip a bunch of mayoralties and stuff. You 90 00:05:21,440 --> 00:05:24,760 Speaker 1: are saying, what matters is how Texas votes in the 91 00:05:24,839 --> 00:05:29,120 Speaker 1: national election. And if you were to get if you 92 00:05:29,120 --> 00:05:31,640 Speaker 1: were to kind of eke out a bear like in 93 00:05:31,680 --> 00:05:34,760 Speaker 1: Georgia right where you get a narrow victory in the 94 00:05:34,760 --> 00:05:37,280 Speaker 1: federal election, that would be great for the Democratic Party. 95 00:05:37,880 --> 00:05:39,599 Speaker 1: One of my issues with it is that kind of 96 00:05:39,640 --> 00:05:43,800 Speaker 1: focusing obsessively on flipping Texas isn't focusing on the stuff 97 00:05:43,880 --> 00:05:47,120 Speaker 1: that actually will help Texans, like Texans currently being targeted 98 00:05:47,120 --> 00:05:50,240 Speaker 1: by the state government, because flipping the state in a 99 00:05:50,279 --> 00:05:53,599 Speaker 1: federal election, but not taking the governor's seat, not taking 100 00:05:53,640 --> 00:05:58,360 Speaker 1: the lieutenant governor seat, not like actually taking the state house, 101 00:05:59,240 --> 00:06:02,360 Speaker 1: doesn't improve life for people in Texas. I think the 102 00:06:02,839 --> 00:06:06,600 Speaker 1: kind of the degree to which the federal government, Biden's administration, 103 00:06:06,960 --> 00:06:11,240 Speaker 1: has been unable to push back very effectively against kind 104 00:06:11,240 --> 00:06:12,880 Speaker 1: of a lot of the shit that DeSantis has been 105 00:06:12,880 --> 00:06:16,240 Speaker 1: doing in Florida. You know, they have started to make 106 00:06:16,240 --> 00:06:18,880 Speaker 1: some attempts. Is evidence of this, and kind of more 107 00:06:18,920 --> 00:06:22,280 Speaker 1: to the point, even if you don't agree with that, fundamentally, 108 00:06:22,440 --> 00:06:25,719 Speaker 1: these strategies that the Democratic Party has embraced in Texas 109 00:06:26,120 --> 00:06:31,080 Speaker 1: do not work. The Texas Democratic Party is incompetent. They 110 00:06:31,080 --> 00:06:33,680 Speaker 1: are bad at their job. They are worse. People bring 111 00:06:33,760 --> 00:06:36,200 Speaker 1: up Georgia a lot when I talk about flipping Texas, 112 00:06:36,200 --> 00:06:38,640 Speaker 1: and folks are like, well, we flipped Georgia, And it's like, yeah, 113 00:06:38,920 --> 00:06:43,760 Speaker 1: because the state elected officials and candidates in George number one, 114 00:06:43,760 --> 00:06:47,320 Speaker 1: the state party did a much better job of kind 115 00:06:47,360 --> 00:06:50,360 Speaker 1: of harvesting is a weird way to phrase it, but 116 00:06:50,400 --> 00:06:54,320 Speaker 1: of incubating talent to run for election in a number 117 00:06:54,320 --> 00:06:58,480 Speaker 1: of local offices then the Texas Democratic Party has ever done. 118 00:06:59,160 --> 00:07:01,560 Speaker 1: And that was a big part of what allowed them 119 00:07:01,680 --> 00:07:05,720 Speaker 1: to be competitive and eventually to flip the state. There's 120 00:07:05,720 --> 00:07:09,080 Speaker 1: a lot of like kind of dollar sign information on 121 00:07:09,120 --> 00:07:12,560 Speaker 1: how bad the state party in Texas is at this shit, 122 00:07:12,680 --> 00:07:14,960 Speaker 1: and I guess I should go ahead and provide some 123 00:07:15,080 --> 00:07:20,040 Speaker 1: of that now. So in the twenty twenty two election, 124 00:07:20,600 --> 00:07:25,000 Speaker 1: the midterms famously an unusually good showing for the Democratic 125 00:07:25,040 --> 00:07:31,280 Speaker 1: Party nationwide for a midterm election everywhere but Texas. O'Rourke 126 00:07:31,440 --> 00:07:35,720 Speaker 1: ran against Greg Abbott. He lost by eleven percent. This 127 00:07:35,800 --> 00:07:38,080 Speaker 1: is kind of to contrast the election that got everyone 128 00:07:38,120 --> 00:07:40,680 Speaker 1: excited when he was running against Cruise. I think they 129 00:07:40,680 --> 00:07:44,560 Speaker 1: were like three percent apart. And again, the only reason 130 00:07:44,760 --> 00:07:47,360 Speaker 1: there was this kind of mistaken belief and excitement among 131 00:07:47,400 --> 00:07:51,160 Speaker 1: dims that O'Rourke, because he was so close to Cruz, 132 00:07:51,200 --> 00:07:54,240 Speaker 1: had a real shot of winning Texas. No, he got 133 00:07:54,360 --> 00:07:58,680 Speaker 1: kinda close to beating Cruz because Ted even Republicans hate 134 00:07:58,680 --> 00:08:01,360 Speaker 1: Ted Cruz. No one is ever liked that man. His 135 00:08:01,400 --> 00:08:03,440 Speaker 1: own wife can barely stand to be in a room 136 00:08:03,440 --> 00:08:06,640 Speaker 1: with him. His political allies would turn the other cheek 137 00:08:06,760 --> 00:08:10,760 Speaker 1: if fucking somebody anyway, we shouldn't talk about political assassinations 138 00:08:10,760 --> 00:08:14,440 Speaker 1: on this podcast. It wouldn't anger anybody though, right. Lindsay 139 00:08:14,440 --> 00:08:17,920 Speaker 1: Graham has said that, like Lindsay Graham's like, what maybe 140 00:08:18,000 --> 00:08:20,679 Speaker 1: the only good joke a Republican elected officials ever told 141 00:08:20,760 --> 00:08:23,440 Speaker 1: is that if you were to shoot Ted Cruz on 142 00:08:23,520 --> 00:08:27,640 Speaker 1: the floor of Congress and the trial was held in Congress, 143 00:08:27,960 --> 00:08:33,400 Speaker 1: like nobody would vote to convict the murderer anyway. So 144 00:08:33,520 --> 00:08:36,920 Speaker 1: Beto lost quite badly to Greg Abbott and beyond that, 145 00:08:37,600 --> 00:08:42,080 Speaker 1: basically every statewide candidate that the Democrats ran lost in 146 00:08:42,160 --> 00:08:45,199 Speaker 1: that election. It was a bad election for the Democratic 147 00:08:45,240 --> 00:08:48,840 Speaker 1: Party and people who pay attention to Texas politics and 148 00:08:48,960 --> 00:08:52,320 Speaker 1: actually like aren't just trying to like grift your donation money. 149 00:08:52,360 --> 00:08:52,600 Speaker 5: Know this. 150 00:08:52,960 --> 00:08:56,439 Speaker 1: Joel Montfort, a Democratic consultant in North Texas said, quote, 151 00:08:56,559 --> 00:08:59,000 Speaker 1: it's been one election after another where we ramp everybody 152 00:08:59,120 --> 00:09:01,240 Speaker 1: up and set these xpectations that we're going to finish 153 00:09:01,240 --> 00:09:03,520 Speaker 1: in first and then we finish in second. I don't 154 00:09:03,520 --> 00:09:05,520 Speaker 1: see any indication that we can win at state wide 155 00:09:05,600 --> 00:09:07,960 Speaker 1: levels or won't continue to bleed house seats to the 156 00:09:08,040 --> 00:09:08,720 Speaker 1: other party. 157 00:09:10,240 --> 00:09:12,000 Speaker 2: I love these to finish in second. 158 00:09:12,040 --> 00:09:19,560 Speaker 6: There is if there's like a podium on election libertarians. Yeah, 159 00:09:20,200 --> 00:09:23,120 Speaker 6: the text Democratic Party to take the l to like 160 00:09:23,200 --> 00:09:23,800 Speaker 6: giald Stein. 161 00:09:24,280 --> 00:09:27,520 Speaker 1: Yeah, there were some kind of site. There were some 162 00:09:27,559 --> 00:09:30,520 Speaker 1: wins by Democrats in Texas. They managed to hold onto 163 00:09:30,520 --> 00:09:34,040 Speaker 1: two out of three seats congressional seats in the battleground 164 00:09:34,200 --> 00:09:37,959 Speaker 1: regions in South Texas, but they still lost one. They 165 00:09:37,960 --> 00:09:41,880 Speaker 1: did what they did, still lose one, and you know, 166 00:09:41,960 --> 00:09:43,880 Speaker 1: the GOP had to spend a lot of money to 167 00:09:43,960 --> 00:09:45,720 Speaker 1: do that. But like one of the one of the 168 00:09:45,720 --> 00:09:47,960 Speaker 1: points is that so they they held onto two of 169 00:09:47,960 --> 00:09:50,160 Speaker 1: those seats, and they won a contested seat in the 170 00:09:50,200 --> 00:09:54,880 Speaker 1: suburbs of Dallas. Uh. And you know, like but basically 171 00:09:54,880 --> 00:09:57,720 Speaker 1: in all of these areas, Uh, these were like super 172 00:09:57,880 --> 00:10:01,319 Speaker 1: narrow wins, like these the big successes, and they were 173 00:10:01,400 --> 00:10:04,000 Speaker 1: narrow wins in areas that Joe Biden had carried by 174 00:10:04,080 --> 00:10:06,800 Speaker 1: double digits two years ago. And Joe Biden is a 175 00:10:06,920 --> 00:10:08,800 Speaker 1: historically like that is part of some of them. Some 176 00:10:08,840 --> 00:10:10,800 Speaker 1: of it will show you how bad the Texas Democratic 177 00:10:10,800 --> 00:10:13,360 Speaker 1: Party is. Joe Biden is not a popular president, and 178 00:10:13,400 --> 00:10:16,080 Speaker 1: the fact that he carried a lot of these areas 179 00:10:16,120 --> 00:10:19,160 Speaker 1: by more than the candidates who narrowly won in twenty 180 00:10:19,200 --> 00:10:21,960 Speaker 1: twenty two could is not a great sign for the 181 00:10:21,960 --> 00:10:22,920 Speaker 1: way things are trending. 182 00:10:23,720 --> 00:10:26,680 Speaker 2: Yeah, It's probably also worth pointing out that like those 183 00:10:26,720 --> 00:10:30,079 Speaker 2: southern Texas seats, like in the Rio Grande Valley, right, like, yeah, 184 00:10:30,120 --> 00:10:32,319 Speaker 2: those people are normally Democrats. Yeah, but you have guys 185 00:10:32,360 --> 00:10:35,800 Speaker 2: like Henry is it Quella Quala, Yeah yeah, yeah, yeah, 186 00:10:35,800 --> 00:10:39,439 Speaker 2: who is opposed to abortion rights are yeah yeah and 187 00:10:39,640 --> 00:10:43,360 Speaker 2: extremely hawkish on the border, and like yeah, yeah, what 188 00:10:43,440 --> 00:10:45,840 Speaker 2: do we gain by having like, yeah, blue team good, 189 00:10:46,120 --> 00:10:48,120 Speaker 2: Like not really if this person's going to take away 190 00:10:48,120 --> 00:10:50,760 Speaker 2: your bodily autonomy and brutalize people for coming to this 191 00:10:50,840 --> 00:10:52,800 Speaker 2: country for one day about a life. 192 00:10:53,280 --> 00:10:55,440 Speaker 1: Yeah, it's it's like a lot of the some of 193 00:10:55,480 --> 00:10:58,280 Speaker 1: these wins are kind of like marginal at best, given 194 00:10:58,360 --> 00:11:01,280 Speaker 1: the compromises or just given the kind of Democrats who 195 00:11:01,320 --> 00:11:04,760 Speaker 1: can win it. It's like a Joe Manchin kind of situation. Yeah, exactly. 196 00:11:05,520 --> 00:11:09,720 Speaker 1: And more to the point, like it's not only is 197 00:11:09,800 --> 00:11:13,400 Speaker 1: this like evidence kind of that the Democrats strategy isn't 198 00:11:13,520 --> 00:11:15,600 Speaker 1: isn't working. It's not simply that they tried something and 199 00:11:15,640 --> 00:11:19,040 Speaker 1: it failed. They tried something and it was so expensive 200 00:11:19,080 --> 00:11:22,480 Speaker 1: that it stopped them from trying things in other areas 201 00:11:22,520 --> 00:11:24,720 Speaker 1: where the money could have gone better. For example of 202 00:11:24,720 --> 00:11:27,839 Speaker 1: how fucking wasteful, particularly the Beto wort campaign was. Right, 203 00:11:28,040 --> 00:11:30,920 Speaker 1: he loses by eleven points to Greg Abbot. He raised 204 00:11:31,040 --> 00:11:34,800 Speaker 1: seventy seven million dollars to lose by that much. A 205 00:11:34,840 --> 00:11:38,680 Speaker 1: few years earlier, Lupe Valdez ran against Greg Abbot. She 206 00:11:38,840 --> 00:11:43,000 Speaker 1: spent raised like two million dollars and lost by thirteen points, 207 00:11:43,520 --> 00:11:47,840 Speaker 1: So seventy five million dollars may have bought Beto two percent. 208 00:11:48,760 --> 00:11:51,000 Speaker 1: You know, like if you assume that national trends had 209 00:11:51,040 --> 00:11:54,120 Speaker 1: nothing to do with that gap closing by a tiny amount, Like. 210 00:11:54,600 --> 00:11:57,800 Speaker 3: With seventy five million dollars, I could take control of 211 00:11:57,840 --> 00:11:59,439 Speaker 3: a moderate at least is Texas City. 212 00:12:00,240 --> 00:12:03,559 Speaker 2: Yeah that is like, yeah, I could buy my chunk 213 00:12:03,600 --> 00:12:07,360 Speaker 2: of Texas specific Like you could purchase a large chunk 214 00:12:07,360 --> 00:12:10,719 Speaker 2: of Fort Worth with that much money. No, yeah, that's 215 00:12:10,720 --> 00:12:12,120 Speaker 2: how I'll go here at cools the own media. 216 00:12:12,240 --> 00:12:15,760 Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, to own fort Worth. Finally my dream completed. 217 00:12:16,200 --> 00:12:19,600 Speaker 1: I'll be able to be I'm gonna buy those horse 218 00:12:19,640 --> 00:12:22,760 Speaker 1: statues that los kalitas. Finally be happy. 219 00:12:23,240 --> 00:12:25,760 Speaker 2: Let's get blucifer as well. It's probably a good time 220 00:12:25,800 --> 00:12:27,880 Speaker 2: to pivot to ads that help us pay for a 221 00:12:27,960 --> 00:12:28,480 Speaker 2: piece of food. 222 00:12:28,600 --> 00:12:31,280 Speaker 1: Sure, yeah, you know, who isn't a waste of money 223 00:12:31,800 --> 00:12:46,520 Speaker 1: these fucking ads. So overall, we just talked about it. 224 00:12:46,679 --> 00:12:49,880 Speaker 1: You know, Beto raised seventy seven million dollars. The gubernatorial 225 00:12:49,960 --> 00:12:52,000 Speaker 1: race cost in total something like one hundred and forty 226 00:12:52,040 --> 00:12:56,520 Speaker 1: million dollars, which is a huge amount of money for 227 00:12:56,640 --> 00:12:59,840 Speaker 1: something that fails that badly and doesn't there's no evidence 228 00:12:59,840 --> 00:13:04,040 Speaker 1: that Beto's campaign, like he was he's obviously good at fundraising, right, 229 00:13:04,840 --> 00:13:06,760 Speaker 1: And there was kind of this belief among a lot 230 00:13:06,800 --> 00:13:09,040 Speaker 1: of dims, an errant belief that this meant that he 231 00:13:09,040 --> 00:13:11,079 Speaker 1: would be good for down ballot races. Right, He's going 232 00:13:11,120 --> 00:13:13,240 Speaker 1: to bring the entire because of how much attention he gets. 233 00:13:13,240 --> 00:13:15,400 Speaker 1: He's going to raise the entire Democratic Party up. The 234 00:13:15,440 --> 00:13:17,800 Speaker 1: poor showing of the Democratic Party in Texas in twenty 235 00:13:17,840 --> 00:13:20,280 Speaker 1: twenty two suggests that that's not the case. And the 236 00:13:20,360 --> 00:13:23,400 Speaker 1: money like there are there are fights that could have 237 00:13:23,480 --> 00:13:27,240 Speaker 1: been won and probably weren't because the money wasn't being 238 00:13:27,280 --> 00:13:29,839 Speaker 1: invested in those fights. It was going to bettle. And 239 00:13:29,840 --> 00:13:32,160 Speaker 1: I'm gonna quote from an article by the Texas Tribune here. 240 00:13:32,840 --> 00:13:35,640 Speaker 1: This year, the party ran Rochelle Garza, a civil rights 241 00:13:35,720 --> 00:13:39,000 Speaker 1: lawyer with little political experience, against Attorney General Ken Paxton, 242 00:13:39,040 --> 00:13:41,920 Speaker 1: who was widely seen as the most vulnerable Republican incumbent. 243 00:13:42,160 --> 00:13:44,760 Speaker 1: But Garza struggled to raise money or gain traction in 244 00:13:44,800 --> 00:13:48,200 Speaker 1: Auric's shadow and lost by ten percentage points against Paxton, 245 00:13:48,360 --> 00:13:51,280 Speaker 1: who has been indicted on felony security fraud charges and 246 00:13:51,360 --> 00:13:55,400 Speaker 1: is being investigated by the FBI for abuse of office accusations. 247 00:13:56,040 --> 00:13:58,520 Speaker 1: And it's what maybe she couldn't have won no matter 248 00:13:58,559 --> 00:14:01,280 Speaker 1: what you did. But one of the rules of politics 249 00:14:01,360 --> 00:14:04,200 Speaker 1: in this country is that the money you spend at 250 00:14:04,240 --> 00:14:06,840 Speaker 1: a big race, like a gubernatorial race, like a like 251 00:14:07,160 --> 00:14:09,880 Speaker 1: a like a Senate or a congressional campaign at the 252 00:14:09,880 --> 00:14:14,480 Speaker 1: federal level, like a presidential campaign, goes less far per 253 00:14:14,559 --> 00:14:18,200 Speaker 1: dollar than the money you spend in smaller local elections. Right, 254 00:14:18,840 --> 00:14:22,880 Speaker 1: ten million bucks going into that election might have done something, 255 00:14:23,320 --> 00:14:26,400 Speaker 1: you know, as opposed to seventy five million going into 256 00:14:26,600 --> 00:14:30,880 Speaker 1: Bedo O'Rourke and accomplishing very little. This has been not 257 00:14:31,320 --> 00:14:34,840 Speaker 1: just a problem in Texas in previous elections, throughout the 258 00:14:34,880 --> 00:14:37,720 Speaker 1: Trump area and a little before in particular, this was 259 00:14:37,760 --> 00:14:39,880 Speaker 1: a problem the DIMS had kind of from the middle 260 00:14:39,920 --> 00:14:43,680 Speaker 1: of the Obama years until the last couple of like 261 00:14:43,720 --> 00:14:46,000 Speaker 1: really the last midterm at twenty eighteen is when it 262 00:14:46,000 --> 00:14:49,160 Speaker 1: started to turn around nationally, and the DIMS have learned 263 00:14:49,320 --> 00:14:53,160 Speaker 1: a lot in other regions about like not spending stupid 264 00:14:53,200 --> 00:15:00,480 Speaker 1: amounts of money on hopeless contests, but not like comprehensively. Example, 265 00:15:00,480 --> 00:15:03,320 Speaker 1: in twenty twenty two, the second most expensive house race 266 00:15:03,680 --> 00:15:07,040 Speaker 1: was the fourteenth Congressional District of Georgia, where Marcus Flowers 267 00:15:07,400 --> 00:15:11,040 Speaker 1: raised sixteen million dollars and lost by thirty two points, 268 00:15:12,680 --> 00:15:16,640 Speaker 1: not a great return on the investment. And it was like, 269 00:15:16,680 --> 00:15:19,160 Speaker 1: the reason why he raised so much money is because 270 00:15:19,160 --> 00:15:21,800 Speaker 1: he was running against Marjorie Taylor Green and nationally, DIMS 271 00:15:21,800 --> 00:15:24,480 Speaker 1: outside of Georgia wanted to put in money because they 272 00:15:24,480 --> 00:15:26,160 Speaker 1: hate her. And it's a trend that relies a lot 273 00:15:26,200 --> 00:15:28,800 Speaker 1: on social media on kind of the way in which 274 00:15:29,160 --> 00:15:31,800 Speaker 1: like hardcore dims, the dims that do a lot of 275 00:15:31,800 --> 00:15:36,160 Speaker 1: the small dollar donations think about politics where it's like 276 00:15:36,200 --> 00:15:39,560 Speaker 1: Marjorie Taylor Green bad donate money to opponent, Well, her 277 00:15:39,560 --> 00:15:42,080 Speaker 1: opponent had no chance of winning in that district, Like 278 00:15:42,200 --> 00:15:44,400 Speaker 1: no amount of money would have flipped that, and you 279 00:15:44,560 --> 00:15:47,920 Speaker 1: just wasted sixteen million dollars that could have helped somewhere else. 280 00:15:48,480 --> 00:15:51,800 Speaker 1: Like maybe that's an insane thing and it's not as 281 00:15:51,840 --> 00:15:53,280 Speaker 1: bad as it used if you want to look at 282 00:15:53,360 --> 00:15:56,160 Speaker 1: like the like the kind of the dumbest it ever was. 283 00:15:56,760 --> 00:16:01,520 Speaker 1: In twenty twenty, so Lindsay Graham's seat was up in 284 00:16:01,600 --> 00:16:05,400 Speaker 1: South Carolina and Jamie Harrison ran against Lindsay Grant and 285 00:16:05,480 --> 00:16:08,720 Speaker 1: dims again because Lindsay Graham evil, you know, raised one 286 00:16:08,800 --> 00:16:12,120 Speaker 1: hundred and thirty million dollars and he lost fight ten points. 287 00:16:12,840 --> 00:16:15,960 Speaker 1: Amy McGrath lost to Mitch McConnell, who is another Like 288 00:16:15,960 --> 00:16:17,680 Speaker 1: you can always get a shitload of money to fight 289 00:16:17,680 --> 00:16:21,600 Speaker 1: Mitch McConnell ninety four million dollars lost by twenty points 290 00:16:22,640 --> 00:16:25,000 Speaker 1: either of the like one hundred and thirty million, ninety 291 00:16:25,000 --> 00:16:27,960 Speaker 1: four million, that's two state legislators. You could have flipped, 292 00:16:28,040 --> 00:16:30,840 Speaker 1: or at least made progress on flipping, right, Like that 293 00:16:30,960 --> 00:16:33,520 Speaker 1: amount of money could potentially do that or at least 294 00:16:33,560 --> 00:16:36,280 Speaker 1: help set up, you know, get a couple of people 295 00:16:36,280 --> 00:16:38,400 Speaker 1: elected who have a chance at kind of broadening a 296 00:16:38,400 --> 00:16:42,120 Speaker 1: base of support and becoming you know, leaders in states 297 00:16:42,160 --> 00:16:46,280 Speaker 1: that are currently like dominated by red legislators, Like there's 298 00:16:46,320 --> 00:16:47,680 Speaker 1: a chance at least here. 299 00:16:48,000 --> 00:16:52,000 Speaker 3: And that like specifically the state legislature. Thing is this 300 00:16:52,080 --> 00:16:55,640 Speaker 3: has been a problem with the Democrats for fucking ages, 301 00:16:55,640 --> 00:16:58,200 Speaker 3: which is that they just yet like it is only 302 00:16:58,560 --> 00:17:01,880 Speaker 3: genuinely in the last years the Democrats are started giving 303 00:17:01,880 --> 00:17:04,159 Speaker 3: a ship about state legislatures, like and this is this 304 00:17:04,200 --> 00:17:05,520 Speaker 3: is one of the things from the Obama era, Like 305 00:17:05,520 --> 00:17:07,359 Speaker 3: one of the reasons everything sucks so much is that 306 00:17:07,400 --> 00:17:11,520 Speaker 3: the Democrats managed to lose, Like, oh god, I forget. 307 00:17:11,520 --> 00:17:13,000 Speaker 3: It was like they I think I think the total 308 00:17:13,240 --> 00:17:17,960 Speaker 3: they lost like a thousand seats. It was like yeah, 309 00:17:18,160 --> 00:17:20,000 Speaker 3: and and and you know, on the we were seeing 310 00:17:20,000 --> 00:17:22,560 Speaker 3: the product of this right like this like like Wisconsin 311 00:17:22,680 --> 00:17:25,480 Speaker 3: was sort of just a hell hole for the last decade. 312 00:17:26,119 --> 00:17:27,680 Speaker 3: Uh and you know, I mean like and these are 313 00:17:27,760 --> 00:17:29,920 Speaker 3: like Minnesota to like the like there are lots of 314 00:17:29,960 --> 00:17:33,639 Speaker 3: these states that like that, like not Minnesota or am 315 00:17:33,640 --> 00:17:34,560 Speaker 3: I talking about Michigan? 316 00:17:35,040 --> 00:17:35,840 Speaker 1: Yeah, Michigan. 317 00:17:36,440 --> 00:17:37,840 Speaker 3: Yeah, And there's a lot of these stats and you know, 318 00:17:37,880 --> 00:17:40,760 Speaker 3: like and both of these places were winnable right, like 319 00:17:40,760 --> 00:17:43,040 Speaker 3: like they're like the Democrats are winning there now, right, 320 00:17:43,480 --> 00:17:47,600 Speaker 3: but they just like fucking left, like you know, they 321 00:17:47,640 --> 00:17:50,040 Speaker 3: they they fucking left Flint to get poisoned by lead 322 00:17:50,080 --> 00:17:52,200 Speaker 3: because they just not like the only the only things 323 00:17:52,240 --> 00:17:54,520 Speaker 3: that the problem is there's there's no money for consultants 324 00:17:55,200 --> 00:17:57,320 Speaker 3: in in sort of like downbout like state and like 325 00:17:57,359 --> 00:17:59,720 Speaker 3: local races just just jack ship, right, and the Democrat 326 00:18:00,040 --> 00:18:03,479 Speaker 3: the Democrat Party like is not run by sort of 327 00:18:03,520 --> 00:18:05,280 Speaker 3: like it's it's not a party in like an actual 328 00:18:05,320 --> 00:18:07,600 Speaker 3: real sense. It is a it is a collection of consultants, 329 00:18:07,640 --> 00:18:10,439 Speaker 3: and those consultants only care about senates about Senate races. 330 00:18:10,520 --> 00:18:12,880 Speaker 3: Sometimes they care about house races, and they care specifically 331 00:18:13,040 --> 00:18:15,600 Speaker 3: they spend all of their fucking money in presidential races. 332 00:18:16,359 --> 00:18:18,440 Speaker 3: And you know, it's like again, and the Republicans don't 333 00:18:18,440 --> 00:18:21,240 Speaker 3: do that because they have a bunch of like people 334 00:18:21,320 --> 00:18:23,199 Speaker 3: they you know, because they have a bunch of like 335 00:18:23,240 --> 00:18:25,919 Speaker 3: part of their base, right is these like small and 336 00:18:26,000 --> 00:18:29,320 Speaker 3: mid scale capitalists in you know, in cities, in rural 337 00:18:29,359 --> 00:18:31,960 Speaker 3: areas who have like immediate concerns about like, you know, 338 00:18:31,960 --> 00:18:34,920 Speaker 3: there's like there there are specific workers who they want 339 00:18:35,040 --> 00:18:37,439 Speaker 3: like lives to be worse. And so because of that, 340 00:18:37,440 --> 00:18:40,040 Speaker 3: the Republican machine is like seize the entire fucking country. 341 00:18:40,320 --> 00:18:44,199 Speaker 3: And the Democrats have been sitting around like spending like 342 00:18:44,240 --> 00:18:47,600 Speaker 3: a trillion dollars on Wendy Davis losing by twenty points. 343 00:18:49,080 --> 00:18:54,640 Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, And it's like you get these you get 344 00:18:54,640 --> 00:18:57,560 Speaker 1: these like cases where you know, you're looking at thirty 345 00:18:57,600 --> 00:19:01,200 Speaker 1: million being spent, you know, failing to uns seat Marjorie 346 00:19:01,240 --> 00:19:03,720 Speaker 1: Taylor Green or somebody thirty three million something like that. 347 00:19:05,560 --> 00:19:09,119 Speaker 1: But what you don't like, at the same time as 348 00:19:09,160 --> 00:19:11,480 Speaker 1: like that's happening, is all of these massive amounts of 349 00:19:11,480 --> 00:19:14,199 Speaker 1: money are being devoted to these, like to the races 350 00:19:14,200 --> 00:19:17,320 Speaker 1: that get attention because there's famous names involved. You have, 351 00:19:17,520 --> 00:19:20,640 Speaker 1: like in twenty twenty I think it was you have 352 00:19:21,160 --> 00:19:23,760 Speaker 1: or no, it's twenty twenty two. You have the election 353 00:19:23,840 --> 00:19:28,200 Speaker 1: between Ted Budd, a Republican against the Democrat Sherry Beasley 354 00:19:28,280 --> 00:19:33,159 Speaker 1: in North Carolina where the Democratic Party decided not to 355 00:19:33,200 --> 00:19:37,240 Speaker 1: prioritize this election because it wasn't winnable, and then Bud 356 00:19:37,280 --> 00:19:39,680 Speaker 1: won up wound up winning by just four points. That's 357 00:19:39,720 --> 00:19:42,800 Speaker 1: a seat you can flip with money. That's not an 358 00:19:42,880 --> 00:19:45,560 Speaker 1: unreasonable thing as opposed to again, the races where it 359 00:19:45,600 --> 00:19:47,520 Speaker 1: went to and people are losing by like thirty something 360 00:19:47,560 --> 00:19:51,040 Speaker 1: fucking percent. And if you want to know who a 361 00:19:51,080 --> 00:19:54,800 Speaker 1: serious candidate is, who is not just trying to do 362 00:19:54,840 --> 00:19:57,159 Speaker 1: the sexy thing or not just trying to like again 363 00:19:57,440 --> 00:19:59,680 Speaker 1: flip the states so that we can win the federal election, 364 00:19:59,760 --> 00:20:01,600 Speaker 1: but actually wants to help their state. And this is 365 00:20:01,600 --> 00:20:05,679 Speaker 1: again there's very nice things about Beto O'Rourke. I was 366 00:20:05,720 --> 00:20:08,160 Speaker 1: in Texas during the ice storm. He did good work 367 00:20:08,280 --> 00:20:12,720 Speaker 1: during the ice storm, like actual community defense kind of 368 00:20:12,760 --> 00:20:15,639 Speaker 1: stuff that I do have some respect for. He is 369 00:20:15,680 --> 00:20:17,760 Speaker 1: not and has never been a serious politician, and I 370 00:20:17,760 --> 00:20:20,760 Speaker 1: will tell you why he went from winning an election 371 00:20:21,160 --> 00:20:25,760 Speaker 1: to losing a state election against Ted Cruz, to losing 372 00:20:26,640 --> 00:20:30,199 Speaker 1: a presidential race to losing the governor seat. That is 373 00:20:30,240 --> 00:20:33,840 Speaker 1: so fucking scattershot. That is not building a base of power, 374 00:20:34,160 --> 00:20:36,800 Speaker 1: That is not building from the ground up and like 375 00:20:37,000 --> 00:20:40,360 Speaker 1: encouraging the growth of other personalities. You're just darting from 376 00:20:40,400 --> 00:20:43,919 Speaker 1: whatever the sexiest and most like pr driven race is. 377 00:20:44,320 --> 00:20:58,360 Speaker 1: That's not serious. I want to talk about what number one, 378 00:20:59,359 --> 00:21:02,240 Speaker 1: the Democratic Party, the ship that like, as we've said, 379 00:21:02,320 --> 00:21:04,800 Speaker 1: they're getting better. The National Party got a lot better 380 00:21:04,840 --> 00:21:07,399 Speaker 1: at this, particularly in twenty twenty two. It was less 381 00:21:07,400 --> 00:21:10,119 Speaker 1: stupid than the previous couple of elections had been. 382 00:21:10,880 --> 00:21:12,840 Speaker 3: Really difficult to be more dumb than that. But you 383 00:21:12,840 --> 00:21:16,359 Speaker 3: know it is British British labor et cetera, et cetera. 384 00:21:18,160 --> 00:21:20,040 Speaker 3: Labor actually is the big one. Oh my fuck. 385 00:21:23,080 --> 00:21:25,840 Speaker 1: I want to talk what has what has worked, and 386 00:21:25,880 --> 00:21:28,919 Speaker 1: what I think could work again. And to do that, 387 00:21:28,960 --> 00:21:31,080 Speaker 1: I'm going to talk about a guy named Howard Dean, 388 00:21:31,520 --> 00:21:36,120 Speaker 1: who here knows who Howard Dean was? Garrison simply yeah 389 00:21:36,240 --> 00:21:36,800 Speaker 1: a little bit. 390 00:21:37,000 --> 00:21:37,280 Speaker 5: Have you? 391 00:21:37,400 --> 00:21:39,359 Speaker 1: Have you all heard the video of him screaming that 392 00:21:39,400 --> 00:21:45,840 Speaker 1: gotten like his career is before. Okay, well, James, would 393 00:21:45,840 --> 00:21:47,240 Speaker 1: you load that up for us so we could play 394 00:21:47,280 --> 00:21:51,119 Speaker 1: that in a second to the Deans. Coward, Jamie, pull 395 00:21:51,359 --> 00:21:57,040 Speaker 1: it up. Howard. Howard Dean ran for president and was 396 00:21:57,119 --> 00:22:00,919 Speaker 1: He was the first national political candidate to use the 397 00:22:01,000 --> 00:22:04,200 Speaker 1: internet effectively to raise money in the in the history 398 00:22:04,200 --> 00:22:08,040 Speaker 1: of US politics. He's kind of pre Obama. Worked out 399 00:22:08,080 --> 00:22:10,320 Speaker 1: a lot of the strategies that Obama's people wound up 400 00:22:10,359 --> 00:22:12,679 Speaker 1: using to very successfully raise money for him. He was 401 00:22:12,720 --> 00:22:16,640 Speaker 1: really good at it. He was a reasonably intelligent candidate. 402 00:22:17,000 --> 00:22:19,320 Speaker 1: And then he gave the speech that we're about to 403 00:22:19,359 --> 00:22:22,240 Speaker 1: play for you, and it completely created his and ended 404 00:22:22,320 --> 00:22:25,280 Speaker 1: him as a as a candidate. You know, I always 405 00:22:25,280 --> 00:22:26,320 Speaker 1: says the thing about Dean. 406 00:22:26,600 --> 00:22:29,720 Speaker 3: Dean is stunningly unlucky that he ran in the time 407 00:22:29,960 --> 00:22:32,880 Speaker 3: that he did, because the clip you're about to hear 408 00:22:33,359 --> 00:22:37,399 Speaker 3: is one thousand times less weird than anything DeSantis has 409 00:22:37,400 --> 00:22:40,280 Speaker 3: ever done. Like he he ran in it. I mean 410 00:22:40,560 --> 00:22:42,879 Speaker 3: there was there was dan Quayle, right, but like he 411 00:22:43,000 --> 00:22:45,679 Speaker 3: ran in an era where like the seriousness and like 412 00:22:46,480 --> 00:22:49,119 Speaker 3: non weirdness of politicians was so much higher. 413 00:22:49,640 --> 00:22:51,439 Speaker 2: I mean, it's in the chat so you can. 414 00:22:53,240 --> 00:22:56,240 Speaker 1: Up. This is a good shit straight to that beautiful scream. 415 00:22:56,520 --> 00:23:00,520 Speaker 5: We're going to South Carolina and Oklahoma and Arizona. 416 00:23:00,200 --> 00:23:02,120 Speaker 3: In North Dakota and New Mexico. 417 00:23:02,440 --> 00:23:05,320 Speaker 1: We're going to California and Texas and New York. 418 00:23:05,640 --> 00:23:09,080 Speaker 5: We're going to South Dakota and Oregon and Washington. 419 00:23:08,840 --> 00:23:11,879 Speaker 3: And Michigan, and then we're going to Washington, d C. 420 00:23:12,119 --> 00:23:13,359 Speaker 3: To take back in the White House. 421 00:23:17,320 --> 00:23:21,960 Speaker 1: That's it. That ended his career as a candidate. And 422 00:23:22,080 --> 00:23:25,719 Speaker 1: like it's a little silly, but that doesn't that doesn't 423 00:23:26,320 --> 00:23:30,359 Speaker 1: that wouldn't be a twelve second news cycle today. But 424 00:23:31,280 --> 00:23:34,119 Speaker 1: after kind of failing out as a presidential candidate, he 425 00:23:34,200 --> 00:23:38,080 Speaker 1: became chairman of the DNC, the Democratic National Committee, and 426 00:23:38,160 --> 00:23:42,080 Speaker 1: he was a pretty good one. His kind of primary 427 00:23:42,160 --> 00:23:45,480 Speaker 1: strategic vision was what he called the fifty state strategy, 428 00:23:46,200 --> 00:23:49,520 Speaker 1: which is, don't focus just on swing states, never write 429 00:23:49,560 --> 00:23:53,000 Speaker 1: a state off at unwinnable. Instead, spread the money that 430 00:23:53,040 --> 00:23:56,560 Speaker 1: the DNC has around two campaign throughout the country everywhere, 431 00:23:56,800 --> 00:24:00,320 Speaker 1: particularly to fund local dncs, so that they can start 432 00:24:00,359 --> 00:24:03,520 Speaker 1: building a stable of candidates that can attract voters and 433 00:24:03,600 --> 00:24:07,680 Speaker 1: eventually win local elections. It's not like an easy It's 434 00:24:07,680 --> 00:24:09,920 Speaker 1: not a sexy strategy because a lot of it is 435 00:24:09,960 --> 00:24:12,879 Speaker 1: focused on like the slow, kind of grueling fight to 436 00:24:13,000 --> 00:24:17,480 Speaker 1: build up a base of support and unfriendly terrain. But 437 00:24:17,560 --> 00:24:22,880 Speaker 1: it worked like really well. Actually in twenty or so states, 438 00:24:23,160 --> 00:24:26,720 Speaker 1: those that had voted solidly Republican in private previous recent 439 00:24:26,920 --> 00:24:32,200 Speaker 1: presidential races, Democratic candidates like won elections that had previously 440 00:24:32,480 --> 00:24:35,880 Speaker 1: like in the like gone against them like it had. 441 00:24:35,960 --> 00:24:36,080 Speaker 3: Like. 442 00:24:36,520 --> 00:24:39,920 Speaker 1: There were about like twenty states where it the kind 443 00:24:39,960 --> 00:24:42,960 Speaker 1: of slide to red was arrested and pushed back to blue. 444 00:24:43,640 --> 00:24:50,280 Speaker 1: These are Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, 445 00:24:50,440 --> 00:24:55,000 Speaker 1: North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, 446 00:24:55,040 --> 00:25:01,640 Speaker 1: West Virginia, and Wyoming. Special list of yeah, there we go. 447 00:25:02,640 --> 00:25:05,760 Speaker 1: So basically, Deans strategy led to a net gain of 448 00:25:05,840 --> 00:25:09,760 Speaker 1: thirty nine state House seats and a two percent increase 449 00:25:09,800 --> 00:25:13,600 Speaker 1: of all seats in the states analyzed. They lost two, 450 00:25:14,160 --> 00:25:16,720 Speaker 1: you know, state Senate seats net, but it worked great 451 00:25:16,760 --> 00:25:21,640 Speaker 1: in the House and gained an attorney generalship, gained three 452 00:25:21,680 --> 00:25:25,399 Speaker 1: House seats, gained a Senate seat, and in fifteen of 453 00:25:25,440 --> 00:25:28,359 Speaker 1: the twenty seats the Democratic nominees on increase in vote 454 00:25:28,359 --> 00:25:30,400 Speaker 1: share between two thousand and four and two thousand and eight, 455 00:25:30,400 --> 00:25:33,719 Speaker 1: which was the years that so again not super sexy. 456 00:25:33,760 --> 00:25:36,720 Speaker 1: These aren't like we flipped Texas suddenly, but it's like, oh, 457 00:25:36,920 --> 00:25:39,960 Speaker 1: we started to see real gains and like a lot 458 00:25:40,080 --> 00:25:44,679 Speaker 1: of pretty red states. Now it didn't work everywhere. It 459 00:25:44,720 --> 00:25:47,840 Speaker 1: was not particularly successful in a large chunk of the South, 460 00:25:48,000 --> 00:25:50,879 Speaker 1: like it did not arrest the slide into the red everywhere. 461 00:25:51,080 --> 00:25:53,479 Speaker 1: But in a lot of the Midwest, particularly the states 462 00:25:53,480 --> 00:25:56,280 Speaker 1: that were like the Hillary Clinton so called firewall that 463 00:25:56,320 --> 00:25:59,960 Speaker 1: went for Trump in twenty twenty, it was extremely effective. 464 00:26:00,119 --> 00:26:04,240 Speaker 1: And of course it got mixed immediately after Obama won election, 465 00:26:04,440 --> 00:26:06,160 Speaker 1: and this is a big part of why in twenty 466 00:26:06,240 --> 00:26:10,040 Speaker 1: ten the dims lost disastrously. But like the basic idea 467 00:26:10,160 --> 00:26:14,880 Speaker 1: of we should be putting money into local democratic parties 468 00:26:14,920 --> 00:26:18,960 Speaker 1: in order to like number one, have like a big 469 00:26:19,000 --> 00:26:22,800 Speaker 1: part of winning any conflict, whether it's a war or 470 00:26:22,800 --> 00:26:27,159 Speaker 1: a political election, is having the resources available reserves to 471 00:26:27,280 --> 00:26:30,840 Speaker 1: take advantage of opportunities that present themselves in the moment. 472 00:26:30,960 --> 00:26:35,639 Speaker 1: So you have a solidly read state house seat or 473 00:26:35,720 --> 00:26:40,200 Speaker 1: judge ship or something like that, or governorship or mayor mayoralty, 474 00:26:40,680 --> 00:26:45,000 Speaker 1: and a candidate has a health scare or has a scandal, 475 00:26:45,080 --> 00:26:47,440 Speaker 1: you know, they get caught fucking a thirteen year old 476 00:26:47,560 --> 00:26:50,560 Speaker 1: or something, and suddenly this seat that was solidly read 477 00:26:50,640 --> 00:26:54,120 Speaker 1: is in play. And if you have no one who 478 00:26:54,160 --> 00:26:56,239 Speaker 1: can like get votes, who can get voters excited, who 479 00:26:56,280 --> 00:26:58,760 Speaker 1: can run for that, well, then you're probably not gonna 480 00:26:58,760 --> 00:27:00,480 Speaker 1: win it. It's just going to like go to whoever 481 00:27:00,640 --> 00:27:04,000 Speaker 1: the RNC you know, picks to pick up the seat next. 482 00:27:04,320 --> 00:27:06,320 Speaker 1: But if you've got someone waiting in the wings, they 483 00:27:06,320 --> 00:27:08,159 Speaker 1: have a chance at winning it. And a good example 484 00:27:08,200 --> 00:27:10,600 Speaker 1: of this is what just happened in Jacksonville, Florida. Right 485 00:27:10,920 --> 00:27:15,320 Speaker 1: you have DeSantis make go like lunge to the fucking 486 00:27:15,520 --> 00:27:18,560 Speaker 1: most fascist end of the right and pass this abortion 487 00:27:18,640 --> 00:27:20,720 Speaker 1: build that something like seventy five percent of the state 488 00:27:20,800 --> 00:27:24,720 Speaker 1: doesn't like. And the Dims had a decent candidate there 489 00:27:24,720 --> 00:27:27,439 Speaker 1: that was able to run against the Republican mayor of 490 00:27:27,520 --> 00:27:30,840 Speaker 1: Jacksonville and win. And in that election, the dim spent 491 00:27:30,920 --> 00:27:33,760 Speaker 1: two million and the Republicans spent nine million. You were 492 00:27:33,800 --> 00:27:36,440 Speaker 1: not talking about the kind of resources expended that you're 493 00:27:36,440 --> 00:27:38,439 Speaker 1: seeing in some of these dumb races we're talking about. 494 00:27:38,800 --> 00:27:41,720 Speaker 1: So anyway, like this is most of what I wanted 495 00:27:41,760 --> 00:27:44,320 Speaker 1: to get into. Is just like you can win and 496 00:27:44,400 --> 00:27:46,720 Speaker 1: you can improve things in Texas and you can build 497 00:27:46,720 --> 00:27:49,840 Speaker 1: a base from which to actually change things electorally in 498 00:27:49,880 --> 00:27:51,919 Speaker 1: that state, but you can't do it by just like 499 00:27:52,000 --> 00:27:54,719 Speaker 1: focusing on whoever is at the top. Like it has 500 00:27:54,840 --> 00:27:57,240 Speaker 1: to be smarter. It's not just about shoveling money into 501 00:27:57,280 --> 00:27:57,560 Speaker 1: a pit. 502 00:27:58,960 --> 00:28:00,720 Speaker 3: Yeah, And like I think there's there's a couple of 503 00:28:00,720 --> 00:28:04,160 Speaker 3: things that wants to add. One was that like oh god, okay, 504 00:28:04,240 --> 00:28:08,639 Speaker 3: Like so Tim Kye, Yeah, Tim Kaine got put in 505 00:28:08,760 --> 00:28:13,679 Speaker 3: after they ran out Dean and Jesus, like Tim Kane 506 00:28:13,760 --> 00:28:16,399 Speaker 3: might be is a is like a once in a 507 00:28:16,480 --> 00:28:21,840 Speaker 3: generation terrible politician, like one of the worst, you know, but. 508 00:28:21,760 --> 00:28:24,680 Speaker 1: Like like you would see ship like he is the Winston 509 00:28:24,800 --> 00:28:26,320 Speaker 1: Churchill of making me bored. 510 00:28:26,600 --> 00:28:29,320 Speaker 3: Like yeah, like like like you would see I mean, 511 00:28:29,320 --> 00:28:31,239 Speaker 3: and this still happens, right, but like there are there 512 00:28:31,280 --> 00:28:34,560 Speaker 3: are seats that are winnable that the Dems like just 513 00:28:34,920 --> 00:28:38,440 Speaker 3: literally won't even bother finding people to run for because 514 00:28:38,440 --> 00:28:40,320 Speaker 3: they're just fucking too lazy and they don't give a shit. 515 00:28:41,120 --> 00:28:43,040 Speaker 3: And you know this this happens if this happens in 516 00:28:43,080 --> 00:28:45,560 Speaker 3: a fucking lot of races, and you know, and part 517 00:28:45,600 --> 00:28:47,400 Speaker 3: part of the other thing that that happens in this 518 00:28:47,400 --> 00:28:49,320 Speaker 3: sort of period that like, you know, is the reason 519 00:28:49,360 --> 00:28:51,000 Speaker 3: why the top down is okay. So this is like 520 00:28:51,520 --> 00:28:53,640 Speaker 3: if if we're gonna actually do this sort of like 521 00:28:54,000 --> 00:28:56,600 Speaker 3: complicated electoralism, like this is why Bernie Sanders lost two 522 00:28:56,600 --> 00:29:01,440 Speaker 3: elections in a row, is that you can't actually like 523 00:29:01,440 --> 00:29:04,959 Speaker 3: like actual sort of like substantive political change like doesn't 524 00:29:05,040 --> 00:29:08,200 Speaker 3: happen from the top down. It's it's like it happens 525 00:29:08,240 --> 00:29:10,960 Speaker 3: on bottom up organizing. And you know, the the democratic 526 00:29:11,000 --> 00:29:14,360 Speaker 3: waves in like the last two years were basically like 527 00:29:14,560 --> 00:29:17,760 Speaker 3: them eating actual social movements. It's you know, like they 528 00:29:17,840 --> 00:29:20,000 Speaker 3: it's it's them basically like they're there. There's a sort 529 00:29:20,040 --> 00:29:24,120 Speaker 3: of rejuvenated anti abortion movement that they just sort of consume. Right, 530 00:29:24,720 --> 00:29:27,240 Speaker 3: They've been doing a very very good job of sort 531 00:29:27,240 --> 00:29:29,840 Speaker 3: of like eating like whatever sort of queer rights like 532 00:29:29,960 --> 00:29:34,080 Speaker 3: movements exist alive. And they had kind of stopped doing 533 00:29:34,120 --> 00:29:35,920 Speaker 3: that for a while because they chose to just like 534 00:29:35,960 --> 00:29:39,360 Speaker 3: destroy occupy whether rather than like try to co opt it. Yea, 535 00:29:39,640 --> 00:29:41,480 Speaker 3: And you know, I mean there were reasons for that, right, 536 00:29:41,560 --> 00:29:44,600 Speaker 3: but like part of part of the thing like if 537 00:29:44,640 --> 00:29:46,720 Speaker 3: if you if if you're a Democrat and you want 538 00:29:46,760 --> 00:29:50,000 Speaker 3: to actually like win Texas, you need to have like 539 00:29:50,480 --> 00:29:54,200 Speaker 3: actual you to have actual sort of social movements that 540 00:29:54,520 --> 00:29:56,400 Speaker 3: you know, the Democrats can eventually take over and destroy 541 00:29:56,480 --> 00:29:59,680 Speaker 3: but in the time between they destroy them destroying them 542 00:29:59,720 --> 00:30:02,840 Speaker 3: and then and you know, like like in the brief 543 00:30:02,840 --> 00:30:05,280 Speaker 3: time while they both exist and are control by Democratic Party, 544 00:30:05,320 --> 00:30:08,160 Speaker 3: that's how you actually sort of like build the kinds 545 00:30:08,200 --> 00:30:09,680 Speaker 3: of the build the kinds of coalitions to build the 546 00:30:09,720 --> 00:30:12,760 Speaker 3: kinds of organization that win these races. And the Democratic 547 00:30:12,800 --> 00:30:15,560 Speaker 3: Party has just no interest in doing that like almost 548 00:30:15,600 --> 00:30:20,480 Speaker 3: anywhere basically outside of Minnesota, where I don't know, those 549 00:30:22,080 --> 00:30:24,640 Speaker 3: in the Minnesota devs are fucking built different. I don't, 550 00:30:24,640 --> 00:30:25,800 Speaker 3: I don't, I don't know, I don't. I don't have 551 00:30:25,800 --> 00:30:30,840 Speaker 3: another explanation for that, but like, yeah, it's I don't know, 552 00:30:30,920 --> 00:30:34,640 Speaker 3: it's it's. 553 00:30:32,720 --> 00:30:35,160 Speaker 1: It's like one of the things that you have the 554 00:30:35,200 --> 00:30:38,880 Speaker 1: opportunity to do at the local level is and this 555 00:30:38,960 --> 00:30:40,640 Speaker 1: is you know, this is a big factor in like, 556 00:30:40,920 --> 00:30:44,280 Speaker 1: uh politics in Georgia. You've got people who are motivated 557 00:30:44,400 --> 00:30:47,440 Speaker 1: because of a specific political issue that Dems are strong on, 558 00:30:47,680 --> 00:30:52,080 Speaker 1: like abortion, and you can you can get people registered, 559 00:30:52,160 --> 00:30:55,040 Speaker 1: you can get people out organizing, you can get people 560 00:30:55,120 --> 00:30:57,560 Speaker 1: donating money, and more most important that you can get 561 00:30:57,560 --> 00:31:02,000 Speaker 1: people voting and voting in numbers that they haven't before 562 00:31:02,520 --> 00:31:05,880 Speaker 1: and make if you're able to kind of harness that 563 00:31:05,920 --> 00:31:07,840 Speaker 1: sort of thing. But being able to harness that, again, 564 00:31:08,320 --> 00:31:10,680 Speaker 1: part of it is this is not sexy. This is 565 00:31:10,720 --> 00:31:12,200 Speaker 1: not something we can say this is going to flip 566 00:31:12,240 --> 00:31:14,920 Speaker 1: a state in twenty twenty four. But putting in the 567 00:31:14,960 --> 00:31:18,640 Speaker 1: money and the resources to have people who are being 568 00:31:18,720 --> 00:31:21,680 Speaker 1: supported to go out and make attempts and to build 569 00:31:22,280 --> 00:31:25,480 Speaker 1: like a reputation and a base of support and networks 570 00:31:25,560 --> 00:31:29,960 Speaker 1: in the state. Like, that's the non sexy thing that 571 00:31:30,560 --> 00:31:32,959 Speaker 1: the number one the Republicans are really good at. If 572 00:31:33,000 --> 00:31:36,080 Speaker 1: you're asking yourself looking at all these horrible anti trans bills, 573 00:31:36,080 --> 00:31:39,920 Speaker 1: anti gay bills, anti abortion bills, how do they do 574 00:31:39,960 --> 00:31:43,400 Speaker 1: this well? Because church is organized at the local level 575 00:31:43,760 --> 00:31:46,960 Speaker 1: to build up the kind of support and the kind 576 00:31:46,960 --> 00:31:51,160 Speaker 1: of human infrastructure that allowed them to take advantage of 577 00:31:51,560 --> 00:31:54,240 Speaker 1: the kind of broader social trends that drove some of 578 00:31:54,280 --> 00:31:57,320 Speaker 1: those states more deeply read and that kind of like 579 00:31:57,440 --> 00:31:59,680 Speaker 1: made made it possible for them to do things that 580 00:31:59,720 --> 00:32:01,840 Speaker 1: ten years before people had said, like there's no way 581 00:32:01,880 --> 00:32:04,240 Speaker 1: to make this happen. That can work on the left 582 00:32:04,280 --> 00:32:07,480 Speaker 1: side of things, but you have to have the groundwork 583 00:32:07,600 --> 00:32:10,400 Speaker 1: in They started with like school boards. Yeah, they started. 584 00:32:10,440 --> 00:32:12,440 Speaker 4: They started with going after school boards, going after books. 585 00:32:12,840 --> 00:32:14,640 Speaker 4: Then you get up base people riled up that you 586 00:32:14,680 --> 00:32:16,800 Speaker 4: can go after healthcare for miners, and you can go 587 00:32:16,840 --> 00:32:19,400 Speaker 4: after health care for adults. It was a very easy path, 588 00:32:19,760 --> 00:32:22,560 Speaker 4: and it started by like going to the most accessible 589 00:32:22,800 --> 00:32:26,480 Speaker 4: places to have public comment on issues, which was complaining 590 00:32:26,480 --> 00:32:28,600 Speaker 4: about books inside of school Yeah. 591 00:32:28,720 --> 00:32:31,640 Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah. And another thing I'd say about the church 592 00:32:31,720 --> 00:32:33,520 Speaker 3: thing is like the thing that you used to do 593 00:32:33,520 --> 00:32:36,120 Speaker 3: that for the Democrats was unions, but then they destroyed 594 00:32:36,120 --> 00:32:37,840 Speaker 3: them all. And but you know, but like you can 595 00:32:37,880 --> 00:32:39,760 Speaker 3: actually you can actually see what this looks like like 596 00:32:39,800 --> 00:32:42,360 Speaker 3: in the places where something like this. This is why 597 00:32:42,400 --> 00:32:44,720 Speaker 3: the state level Midwest Dems are so much further to 598 00:32:44,760 --> 00:32:47,560 Speaker 3: the left than the Dems everywhere else, because like the 599 00:32:47,600 --> 00:32:50,880 Speaker 3: people in Minnesota, the people in Wisconsin are like the 600 00:32:51,120 --> 00:32:53,720 Speaker 3: the only reason they're even so remotely in power is 601 00:32:53,760 --> 00:32:56,400 Speaker 3: because and you know, you're seeing this like at like 602 00:32:56,440 --> 00:33:00,440 Speaker 3: in Chicago too with Brandon Johnson, is that like these 603 00:33:00,480 --> 00:33:03,880 Speaker 3: those people are like functionally dependent on like that they're 604 00:33:03,960 --> 00:33:07,920 Speaker 3: on their teachers unions to exist as like a political coalision. Yeah, 605 00:33:07,960 --> 00:33:10,760 Speaker 3: and so you know, like like union organizing is a 606 00:33:10,960 --> 00:33:12,760 Speaker 3: is a like we're just like fucking just giving money 607 00:33:12,800 --> 00:33:15,000 Speaker 3: to a strike fund is even even if the thing 608 00:33:15,000 --> 00:33:16,680 Speaker 3: that you want to do is win elections, that is 609 00:33:16,680 --> 00:33:19,000 Speaker 3: a more effective way of winning of winning elections than 610 00:33:19,120 --> 00:33:22,640 Speaker 3: fucking giving money to Beto Auroric like a seventh time. 611 00:33:23,000 --> 00:33:27,720 Speaker 1: Yeah and again when we the thing I want to 612 00:33:27,760 --> 00:33:30,320 Speaker 1: get across here is the right thing to do is 613 00:33:30,360 --> 00:33:35,640 Speaker 1: not say, and no one is suggesting this here, fuck Texas. 614 00:33:35,760 --> 00:33:38,240 Speaker 1: It can never be fixed. The right thing is saying, 615 00:33:39,000 --> 00:33:42,960 Speaker 1: if you're focused on one famous guy running in Texas 616 00:33:43,080 --> 00:33:46,200 Speaker 1: or this like top level thing of flipping Texas, you 617 00:33:46,240 --> 00:33:49,480 Speaker 1: don't actually care all that much about the problems being 618 00:33:49,520 --> 00:33:53,240 Speaker 1: faced by people in Texas because that's not really going 619 00:33:53,280 --> 00:33:56,360 Speaker 1: to fix them. Right, Beto's not going to win. And 620 00:33:56,440 --> 00:33:59,400 Speaker 1: even if Texas flips for an election, that doesn't mean 621 00:33:59,400 --> 00:34:02,200 Speaker 1: the state legend your flips. It doesn't mean the governor flips. 622 00:34:02,240 --> 00:34:05,320 Speaker 1: It doesn't mean that things get better for people doing 623 00:34:05,360 --> 00:34:08,759 Speaker 1: these kind of bottom up approaches. Number one will eventually 624 00:34:08,800 --> 00:34:12,600 Speaker 1: flip the fucking state. Right, there is a demographic trend happening. 625 00:34:13,719 --> 00:34:16,399 Speaker 1: Part of how you flip the state, by the way, 626 00:34:16,440 --> 00:34:18,839 Speaker 1: if you're actually responsible, is like proving that you can 627 00:34:18,920 --> 00:34:22,480 Speaker 1: make people's lives better. If you want to flip the state. 628 00:34:22,719 --> 00:34:24,960 Speaker 1: That's maybe more ethical than just being like, what if 629 00:34:25,000 --> 00:34:29,319 Speaker 1: we dump one hundred and seventy million dollars to try 630 00:34:29,360 --> 00:34:32,440 Speaker 1: to make this guy who goes viral on YouTube or 631 00:34:32,480 --> 00:34:35,640 Speaker 1: Twitter sometimes look better? Right, maybe one of those is 632 00:34:35,680 --> 00:34:37,800 Speaker 1: more ethical than the other. Anyway. I don't want to 633 00:34:37,880 --> 00:34:41,239 Speaker 1: rant about electoralism anymore, but as a as a transplant 634 00:34:41,239 --> 00:34:45,239 Speaker 1: in Texan, I get frustrated by this, so I felt 635 00:34:45,320 --> 00:34:46,440 Speaker 1: like we had to say something. 636 00:34:47,040 --> 00:34:50,200 Speaker 2: Yeah, I also get frustrated by Better claiming to be punk, 637 00:34:50,280 --> 00:34:53,560 Speaker 2: which is the least punk thing in the fucking whether 638 00:34:53,600 --> 00:34:54,920 Speaker 2: that's a now repisode. 639 00:34:54,600 --> 00:34:58,600 Speaker 1: No, we have one. We have one elected leader who's 640 00:34:58,640 --> 00:35:02,800 Speaker 1: gotten anywhere close to being punk, and it was Bernie 641 00:35:02,880 --> 00:35:06,880 Speaker 1: Sanders when he got into that cold book depository that 642 00:35:06,960 --> 00:35:10,760 Speaker 1: November morning with a manliquor carcano rifle. Extremely punk. 643 00:35:12,200 --> 00:35:20,360 Speaker 3: Anyway, cutting the feed here, it could. 644 00:35:20,120 --> 00:35:22,480 Speaker 5: Happen here as a production of cool Zone Media. For 645 00:35:22,560 --> 00:35:25,279 Speaker 5: more podcasts from cool Zone Media, visit our website cool 646 00:35:25,320 --> 00:35:28,200 Speaker 5: zonemedia dot com or check us out on the iHeartRadio app, 647 00:35:28,239 --> 00:35:31,600 Speaker 5: Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to podcasts, you can 648 00:35:31,600 --> 00:35:34,319 Speaker 5: find sources for It could happen here, updated monthly at 649 00:35:34,360 --> 00:35:37,600 Speaker 5: cool zonemedia dot com slash sources. Thanks for listening.