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Speaker 1: Thanks so much for joining us on the special edition

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Speaker 1: of Bloomberg Daybreak. US markets are closed for the Memorial

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Speaker 1: Day holiday. I'm Nathan Hager, and coming up this hour

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Speaker 1: will the Fed cut rates this year? And if so,

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Speaker 1: when and just how strong is the US economy? Will

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Speaker 1: have a roundtable discussion with Michael McKee, our International Economics

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Speaker 1: and Policy correspondent, and Bloomberg Economics Chief US economist Anna Wong. Plus,

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Speaker 1: Memorial Day unofficially kicks off the summer. Are there any

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Speaker 1: good travel deals to be had? We'll ask the founder

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Speaker 1: of the Points Guy, Brian Kelly. But first let's take

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Speaker 1: a look at the direction of travel for the stock market.

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Speaker 1: Equities hit all time highs earlier this month. In fact,

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Speaker 1: the Dow Jones Industrial Average crossed forty thousand for the

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Speaker 1: first time. Plenty of analysts are racing to adjust price

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Speaker 1: targets for the broader indexes. So what's in store for

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Speaker 1: the rest of the year. Let's discuss with two expert

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Speaker 1: voices on this market. Alisia Levine is this head of

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Speaker 1: investment strategy at bny Melon, along with Brian Levitt, the

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Speaker 1: global market strategist at Investco. Thanks to both of you

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Speaker 1: for being with US. Of course, stocks have certainly defied

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Speaker 1: expectations from the start of the year. So Alisha, I'll

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Speaker 1: start with you, where do you see the momentum right now?

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Speaker 2: So I think the momentum is really coming from the microside,

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Speaker 2: which is earnings, and then of course the macro side,

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Speaker 2: which is the data are holding in better than feared

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Speaker 2: twelve months ago, six months ago, and the US economy

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Speaker 2: is not overheated, and it's slowing down in a way

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Speaker 2: that allows the FED not to have a hiking bias,

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Speaker 2: and so therefore we just think it's a pretty good

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Speaker 2: place to be. There is the possibility of volatility around

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Speaker 2: the election, of course, and other hot data prints we

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Speaker 2: might get on the inflation side, which really is the

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Speaker 2: most important thing right now for where yields go. But

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Speaker 2: other than that, we think the overall picture looks very good.

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Speaker 2: So we'd say the negative side of sort of left tails,

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Speaker 2: not that they're nothing, but they're not as big as

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Speaker 2: they were. Let's say call it a year ago. And

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Speaker 2: so we look at the world and we say, this

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Speaker 2: kind of feels a little bit like the nineteen nineties,

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Speaker 2: where good enough growth rates have normalized. We can grow

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Speaker 2: from here and the economy is humming.

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Speaker 1: Let's take that point, Brian. Looking like the nineteen nineties

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Speaker 1: we saw a bubble back, then, is this a market

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Speaker 1: that could see a bubble start to burst.

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Speaker 3: Well, the late nineteen nineties we saw a bubble, so

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Speaker 3: I think what was being referenced there is perhaps more

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Speaker 3: the mid nineties we did see the green span fedback

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Speaker 3: then raise interest rates in the mid nineties by a

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Speaker 3: pretty significant amount. The market didn't love it, although I

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Speaker 3: don't think an eight nine percent decline is anything terrible.

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Speaker 3: But when it became clear that the Federal Reserve could

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Speaker 3: back off, that the economy was still strong, the proverbial

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Speaker 3: soft landing of that, it ended up being a very

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Speaker 3: nice number of years for markets beyond it. So I

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Speaker 3: don't think Alicia was mentioning it to suggest that this

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Speaker 3: is a market that's in a bubble. More that there's

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Speaker 3: a nice setup for markets to continue to climb higher.

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Speaker 3: And if it is nineteen ninety four nineteen ninety five,

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Speaker 3: you know investors would would then be quite happy over

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Speaker 3: the next few years.

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Speaker 1: Of course, Alicia, you set up a pretty strong bullish

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Speaker 1: outlook there with the setup just now, how much further

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Speaker 1: upside do you see for this market, what's going to

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Speaker 1: be the catalyst for where things go for the second half.

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Speaker 2: So I think the catalyst clearly has to come from

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Speaker 2: the earning side. I think the excitement over AI and

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Speaker 2: sort of fellow travelers, so the hyperscalers of Magnificent seven

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Speaker 2: plus the chip beneficiaries, plus the power of the utility beneficiaries.

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Speaker 2: That feels like it's well locked into place, and it's

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Speaker 2: not an unknown, right, It's not an unknown. So I

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Speaker 2: think you have to have earnings come in from the

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Speaker 2: rest of the market. I think it's clear that another

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Speaker 2: hot inflation print could cause volatility here. We would expect

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Speaker 2: something like that. I think the models for predicting inflation

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Speaker 2: are clearly not working and that's okay, But it does

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Speaker 2: look like we're sort of in this disinflationary period with

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Speaker 2: some hiccups here or there, so that could cause some

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Speaker 2: volatility in the bond market. Overall. What we've been saying

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Speaker 2: is the FED pivoted in December. We don't think the

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Speaker 2: FED pivots from the pivot. So in terms of rate

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Speaker 2: cuts this year, we've always said less and later. We're

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Speaker 2: really at one cut for the year that would be

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Speaker 2: sufficient to keep the market moving higher into the end

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Speaker 2: of the year. And let's just point out, Nathan, you know,

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Speaker 2: we're in a re election year and administrations tend to

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Speaker 2: do everything they can to get reelected, and I think

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Speaker 2: we see that with some fiscal support. So I think

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Speaker 2: it's just very hard if you just put a timeline

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Speaker 2: on this, even though we're as strategist Brian knows well,

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Speaker 2: you don't put a number and a date in the

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Speaker 2: same sentence. I just think, yeah, I just think that

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Speaker 2: it's just hard to get that deep sell off from

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Speaker 2: here into the end of the year in a re

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Speaker 2: election year with the setup that we have of two

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Speaker 2: to three percent growth and inflation that possibly sticky but

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Speaker 2: still on the downward trend.

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Speaker 1: I want to pick up to something that Alicia talked

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Speaker 1: about at the beginning in terms of companies meeting their

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Speaker 1: expectations for earnings. We've gotten through most of the earning season, Brian,

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Speaker 1: and you've seen a lot of these companies put out

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Speaker 1: pretty strong forecasts, some pretty positive outlooks in terms of

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Speaker 1: where they see things going. Do you think companies are

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Speaker 1: going to be able to meet or exceed their earnings

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Speaker 1: expectations heading into the second half. What's it going to

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Speaker 1: take for.

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Speaker 4: Them to do it?

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Speaker 3: It's so far they've been able to. And this was, again,

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Speaker 3: to your point, another good earning season in a time

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Speaker 3: when you know, many investors a year or two ago,

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Speaker 3: we're thinking a recession was coming and we're contemplating what

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Speaker 3: a decline in earnings could look like. So it's an

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Speaker 3: economic backdrop, both in the US and globally that continues

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Speaker 3: to be supportive for corporate earnings. The irony in all

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Speaker 3: of it, Nathan, is that for all the focus on

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Speaker 3: the FED, and for all the focus on will they

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Speaker 3: or won't they and by how much and when the

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Speaker 3: reality is that good nominal growth and no rate cuts

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Speaker 3: is just buying for markets, and in fact perhaps maybe

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Speaker 3: preferable to weaker growth and lower rates, which is what

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Speaker 3: a lot of investors had been expected.

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Speaker 1: Speaking with Brian Levitt, Invesco's global market strategist and Alicia Levine,

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Speaker 1: the head of investment strategy at bny mellon interesting point

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Speaker 1: and had just their Alisha about the setup still being

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Speaker 1: positive for companies even if we don't see a FED

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Speaker 1: rate cut this year. Do you share that view? Is

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Speaker 1: there really that much of an expectation from companies that

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Speaker 1: they FED needs to deliver in order for the momentum

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Speaker 1: to continue for stocks.

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Speaker 2: So for thirty percent of the SMP, which is about

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Speaker 2: the top ten stocks, they don't need to borrow. So

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Speaker 2: what the FED does in some ways is not relevant

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Speaker 2: to their business models. Where you feel it whether the

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Speaker 2: FED cuts or not, is as you do go down

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Speaker 2: cap into small cap. You know a lot of the

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Speaker 2: small cap index over half has floating rate debt that's

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Speaker 2: due much sooner than the fixed rate debt that the

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Speaker 2: larger cap companies took out in twenty twenty and twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty one when rates were near zero. So that's why

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Speaker 2: the rustle, for instance, is still fifteen percent below it's

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Speaker 2: all time high in twenty twenty one, because you do

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Speaker 2: have some business models that could be threatened here. Overall,

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Speaker 2: the SMP is more resilient to what the FED decides

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Speaker 2: to do with rate cuts if the FED stays here,

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Speaker 2: which is very possible. A lot of the debt in

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Speaker 2: the SMP is fixed rate and that maturing until twenty

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Speaker 2: thirty or later. That's just a structural change. And so

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Speaker 2: I think this kind of obsession with the FED is nice,

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Speaker 2: but to Brian's point, you know, when the FED cuts

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Speaker 2: many times, it means that the economy is weak, we

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Speaker 2: have higher unemployment, and we're headed into a recession or

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Speaker 2: we're already there. So I think most of us as

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Speaker 2: strategists would take you know, five to five and a

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Speaker 2: half percent nominal growth with you know, a FED funds

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Speaker 2: rate meeting that more or less. And don't forget earnings

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Speaker 2: are nominal and the SMP reflects nominal growth, and so

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Speaker 2: you are in a sense already participating in all those

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Speaker 2: parts of the market that you may be a little

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Speaker 2: worried about with higher rates, as long as your companies

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Speaker 2: don't have to go out and tap the debt markets.

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Speaker 1: Bran, I want to pick up on another point you

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Speaker 1: had earlier about looking beyond the US market. We've been

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Speaker 1: talking about the resiliency of the US economy, but the

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Speaker 1: potential as well for some other opportunities outside the US.

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Speaker 1: Where are you looking? Where are you advising clients to

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Speaker 1: put their attention when it comes to x US investments?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and investors clearly have preferred the United States for

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Speaker 3: a variety of reasons. The catalysts that tend to unlock

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Speaker 3: the value in other parts of the world will either

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Speaker 3: come from economic surprises or will come from policy changes.

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Speaker 3: So if you look at places like China, or in

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Speaker 3: Europe or in the UK, where valuations are more reasonable,

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Speaker 3: are their catalysts, and you're seeing policy that likely moves

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Speaker 3: ahead of where we are in the US in terms

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Speaker 3: of supporting the economy. You've seen trying to take some

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Speaker 3: steps now to support their property sector. The European and

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Speaker 3: UK central banks may be lowering rates ahead of time.

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Speaker 3: But what you're also seeing is those parts of the

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Speaker 3: world that were hit harder over the last year or

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Speaker 3: so are now starting surprise to the upside a bit,

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Speaker 3: while the US surprise in disease in terms of whether

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Speaker 3: we're outpacing economic expectations are coming down a little bit.

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Speaker 3: So it's a sea change. It's not necessarily one where

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Speaker 3: we say go out and you know, swing wildly to

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Speaker 3: move from the US to international. But if you believe

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Speaker 3: we're in the recovery phase of the cycle in those

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Speaker 3: parts of the world, then you would want to increase exposure,

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Speaker 3: will help the evaluation of the portfolio, diversify some of

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Speaker 3: your dollar exposure. And if we're right that those economies

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Speaker 3: are recover intends to be a good backdrop for their markets.

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Speaker 1: Now, Alisha, I'm curious where you're looking for surprises. I mean,

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Speaker 1: we've got wars still happening around the world, We've got

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Speaker 1: a US presidential election coming up in the fall, We've

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Speaker 1: got a UK election coming up in the summer. What's

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Speaker 1: got your attention?

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Speaker 2: So is this the question about what makes me worry

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Speaker 2: at night?

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Speaker 1: What makes you worry at night?

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Speaker 2: Alicia n So, Look, I think the geopolitical risks are

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Speaker 2: very real and heightened in a way that you know,

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Speaker 2: typically markets don't really factor in geopolitical risk for more

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Speaker 2: than a few weeks at a time, I think, you know,

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Speaker 2: and typically it's through the commodity cycle. So you know, Ukraine,

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Speaker 2: Middle East clearly oil and in the Ukraine case a

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Speaker 2: fertilizer and for food that could be still at risk there,

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Speaker 2: but the market knows that. And in fact, you know,

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Speaker 2: WTI oil prices have actually come down from the peak

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Speaker 2: when there was probably a ten dollars premium in oil

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Speaker 2: prices for a hot war in the Middle East. I think,

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Speaker 2: you know, maybe there's some volatility around the election, and

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Speaker 2: I would say this, I think the best thing that

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Speaker 2: can happen for all of us, is that we wake

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Speaker 2: up or we go to sleep with a fifty three

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Speaker 2: forty seven win for whatever party it is, and it's

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Speaker 2: a clear winner, and I think that would be the

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Speaker 2: best case for the market regardless. I think if we

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Speaker 2: have one of those where it's really too close to

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Speaker 2: call and may take weeks to find out, that's not great,

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Speaker 2: and that won't be great for the market either. And

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Speaker 2: so that's just I think probably the risk out there.

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Speaker 2: The other thing is the deficit. Of course, neither party

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Speaker 2: is really serious about addressing this, and in fact, both

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Speaker 2: platforms have enormous fiscal spend attached to their political promises.

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Speaker 2: So I'd say that's something we have to keep an

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Speaker 2: eye on.

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Speaker 1: Our Thanks to Alisha Levine, head of investment strategy at

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Speaker 1: bn Y Melon and Invesco Global market strategist Brian Levitt.

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Speaker 1: And coming up next, we'll take an even closer look

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Speaker 1: at the economy and whether the Fed will cut interest

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Speaker 1: rates before this year is out. I'm Nathan Hager, and

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Speaker 1: this is Bloomberg. Welcome back to this special edition of

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Daybreak. US markets are closed for Memorial Day. I'm

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Speaker 1: Nathan Hager. Thanks for joining us. Now we want to

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Speaker 1: turn from the stock market to the economy. Twenty twenty

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Speaker 1: four began with high expectations for interest rate cuts. So

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Speaker 1: far we haven't had a one. So what will it

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Speaker 1: take for the Fed to finally pull the trigger and

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Speaker 1: will they even do it? To dive into those questions,

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Speaker 1: we have convened a special economic roundtable. Anna Wong is

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Speaker 1: with US, chief US economist at Bloomberg Economics, along with

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Speaker 1: Michael McKee, International Economics and Policy correspondent for Bloomberg Radio

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Speaker 1: and Television. Thanks to both of you for being with us.

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Speaker 1: And I'll start with you, Mike, because you talk with

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Speaker 1: these FOMC voters like all the time. So what are

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Speaker 1: they telling you in terms of policy?

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Speaker 4: Basically, their story hasn't changed. They're waiting for inflation to

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Speaker 4: show signs that it is going to continue on down

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Speaker 4: to two percent. Now, one important thing to remember is

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Speaker 4: they're going to start cutting interest rates before they get

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Speaker 4: to two percent. They've made that clear. But right now

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Speaker 4: they're not seeing any progress at all since basically inflation

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Speaker 4: has stalled out. So it's going to take a little while,

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Speaker 4: several more months, and then we'll see whether they get

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Speaker 4: anything this year or not, a lot of them moving

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Speaker 4: out sort of on the curve, and more and more

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Speaker 4: of them talking about end of the year as a

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Speaker 4: possible first timing for a rate cut.

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Speaker 1: Several more months. And of course you worked as an

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Speaker 1: economist in the Federal Reserve, and it's so funny because

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Speaker 1: at the beginning of the year there was all this

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Speaker 1: talk about maybe six or seven interrast rate cuts. Now

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Speaker 1: there's no way we can get that the way the

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Speaker 1: calendar is going. So what do policymakers need to see

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Speaker 1: to get that assurance that they can start the interest

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Speaker 1: rate cutting cycle.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, So, you know, in the beginning of the year,

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Speaker 5: when the market was pricing in one hundred and seventy

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Speaker 5: base point of right cuts, that was a little bit

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Speaker 5: overdoing it. But even then time, given the inflation trajectory,

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Speaker 5: a fair assessment, given the you know, inertial tailor rule,

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Speaker 5: which the Fed has followed quite closely over the past

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Speaker 5: two years, is that one hundred to one hundred and

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Speaker 5: twenty five bases cut was reasonable. And now we are

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Speaker 5: down to the model, the tailor rule saying that a

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Speaker 5: fair assessment would be forty basis point of cuts, and

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Speaker 5: that would be the result from a reasonable range of

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Speaker 5: inflation numbers. And the reason why that rule has come

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Speaker 5: down from one hundred and twenty five to now forty

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Speaker 5: is because mostly because of the inflation data as you suggested.

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Speaker 5: So I think the expectation that the Fed will cut

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Speaker 5: once or twice this year is still fair. And whether

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Speaker 5: it would be more like one cut or two cut,

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Speaker 5: it depends on whether inflation is going to be closer

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Speaker 5: to ending the year closer to two point six percent

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Speaker 5: or is it three percent. So in our forecast, we

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Speaker 5: do expect inflation to be drifting back up from a

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Speaker 5: low of two point seven percent mid year to closer

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Speaker 5: to three percent by the end of the year. But

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Speaker 5: we still do think the Fed would cut because unemployment

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Speaker 5: is we think it's going to rise about four percent

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Speaker 5: by the end of this year.

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Speaker 1: Mike, from what you're hearing from Fed officials, are they

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Speaker 1: feeling that pressure to deliver the first cut before the

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Speaker 1: year is out? I mean, it does get harder to

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Speaker 1: make that move once we get closer to an election,

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Speaker 1: doesn't it.

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Speaker 4: They would argued no, and past history supports that idea

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Speaker 4: that the election doesn't make any difference to them. They'll

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Speaker 4: do what they think they should do when the time comes,

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Speaker 4: But at this point they don't seem to be feeling

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Speaker 4: any pressure because the economy is not demanding it. They

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Speaker 4: look around and they see where unemployment is well below

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Speaker 4: four percent, and they see the economy growing basically at potential,

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Speaker 4: and they don't think they need to cut rates at

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Speaker 4: the moment. The biggest concern they have going forward is

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Speaker 4: that if inflation does start to fall again, then you

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Speaker 4: get a rise in real rates and that would tighten

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Speaker 4: conditions even more. So maybe they don't want that. The

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Speaker 4: other side of that coin is do they need to

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Speaker 4: cut rates because the economy slows so much and that's

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Speaker 4: not in anybody's forecast there at the moment.

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Speaker 1: Well, so what is the forecast and when it comes

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Speaker 1: to the path for disinflation. Obviously we did see that

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Speaker 1: little bit of a bump the first quarter of this year, things,

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Speaker 1: as you said, have been stalling out. Where do you

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Speaker 1: see the disinflationary path going, if at all, into the

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Speaker 1: second half.

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Speaker 5: Typically in the beginning of the year you do have

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Speaker 5: these unfavorable seasonal factors, and for this year, the unfavorable

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Speaker 5: seasonal factors for inflation lasted beyond February, which is a

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Speaker 5: little bit unusual. But then if the past is a guide,

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Speaker 5: from here on out to the end of summer should

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Speaker 5: be a favorable period for disinflation. So our forecast, and

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Speaker 5: I think the Fed's forecast, is for the year over

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Speaker 5: year core PC deflator to continue to edge down from

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Speaker 5: now to mid year. Possibly by August we will see

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Speaker 5: a core pc E twelve months change of two point

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Speaker 5: seven or two point six percent. But our forecast for

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Speaker 5: the second half is more pessimistic because then all these

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Speaker 5: favorable factors we see from here to end of summer

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Speaker 5: will reverse and then it gets harder. And that's when

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Speaker 5: we also think that the base effects of inflation would

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Speaker 5: turn against all these measures, because that's because last year

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Speaker 5: we called last year, the second half of last year

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Speaker 5: was very favorable for inflation. So you have this low

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Speaker 5: base effect which tends to push up the year over

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Speaker 5: year in the second half, and this is why we

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Speaker 5: think that at the end of the year core PCE

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Speaker 5: deflator would be closer to three than mid twos.

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Speaker 1: Speaking with Anna Wong, the chief US economist at Bloomberg Economics,

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Speaker 1: and our Bloomberg International Economics and Policy correspondent, Michael McKee. Mike,

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Speaker 1: you've been talking, of course to FED officials. We've heard

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Speaker 1: from Raphael Bostik of the Atlanta FED talking about how

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Speaker 1: there are active discussions about where the neutral rate is,

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Speaker 1: the rate at which policy neither slows nor grows the economy.

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Speaker 1: What's the thinking about where that stands right now?

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Speaker 4: Well, it's becoming more important because now we're getting into

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Speaker 4: the possibility of rate cuts, and so the question for

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Speaker 4: everybody is once they do start, how far do they cut?

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Speaker 4: And I think most FED officials would tell you they

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Speaker 4: don't really know. They don't think they will be going

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Speaker 4: back anywhere near the zero rates that we had for

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Speaker 4: a while. But how fast can the economy grow right now?

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Speaker 4: That's not clear. And unfortunately, the neutral rate is something

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Speaker 4: that's not observable as an individual number. It's something better

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Speaker 4: seen in hindsight. But they're looking at the inflation rate

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Speaker 4: and they're looking at the growth rate, and they're thinking,

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Speaker 4: maybe we have seen the economy move up its neutral rate,

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Speaker 4: but would that last. As Anna said, forecasts are we're

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Speaker 4: going to see a cooling as we go along. So

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Speaker 4: they don't really have a good number yet. They're thinking

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Speaker 4: in terms of somewhere around four percent, maybe a little higher,

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Speaker 4: a little lower, but it's going to depend on the

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Speaker 4: conditions in the economy at the time, and that's going

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Speaker 4: to be several rate cuts down the road, So we

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Speaker 4: probably won't get a neutral rate view until sometime next year.

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Speaker 1: And when it comes to conditions in the economy, And

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Speaker 1: is there some thinking within the FED or among economists

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Speaker 1: like yourself that there may need to be some further

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Speaker 1: damage to the economy to get inflation to the fed's

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Speaker 1: target in terms of the labor market, in terms of

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Speaker 1: goods and services.

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Speaker 5: I think from reading the community public communications of the FED,

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Speaker 5: it's pretty clear to me that the FED has moved

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Speaker 5: away from that view that you do need damages to

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Speaker 5: the labor market to bring down inflation. In fact, the

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Speaker 5: confidence within the committee has been building that you don't

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Speaker 5: need that They are banking on productivity growth and also

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Speaker 5: immigration to provide support to the economy without introducing inflationary forces.

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Speaker 1: And there's a lot of discussion as well about whether

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Speaker 1: the two percent inflation target even makes sense. I mean,

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Speaker 1: we hear from the likes of muhammedel Air saying that

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Speaker 1: that level is arbitrary. Mike, why is it so important

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Speaker 1: for this FED to get to that two percent target?

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Speaker 4: It's basically a credibility issue for them. One of the

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Speaker 4: things that was pointed out at the Atlanta FED conference

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Speaker 4: last week was that during the great inflation of the

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Speaker 4: nineteen seventies and eighties, inflation expectations soared along with the

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Speaker 4: inflation rate, and that didn't happen this time, and so

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Speaker 4: they fed credibility. People believe the FED will do what

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Speaker 4: it takes to bring inflation doubt, and they have the

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Speaker 4: two percent target, so they need to stick to that.

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Speaker 4: They need to make sure people understand that they're going

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Speaker 4: to fight inflation, they're going to bring it down. We

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Speaker 4: may never actually get there because they will start cutting

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Speaker 4: before they get to two percent, and if inflation gets

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Speaker 4: sticky at two point three percent, I don't think they're

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Speaker 4: going to risk damaging the economy by trying to push

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Speaker 4: even harder. But they want people to know they're going

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Speaker 4: to follow up. Now. They start later this year, a

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Speaker 4: review of their policy framework probably taken another year, and

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Speaker 4: so sometime in twenty twenty five or early twenty twenty six,

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Speaker 4: they may change their view. Right now, I didn't find

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Speaker 4: any support I haven't found any support for changing it

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Speaker 4: to a higher number, at least firmly. But there are

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Speaker 4: people who are thinking about it that this world we're

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Speaker 4: going into a post pandemic is going to have a

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Speaker 4: little bit faster inflation on a regular basis, but they're

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Speaker 4: not ready to commit to anything yet.

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Speaker 1: Well, what do you think, Anna, is a two percent

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Speaker 1: inflation target still achievable? I mean, it's taken quite a

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Speaker 1: while just to get to where we are right now.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I think you know. Our view is that inflation

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Speaker 5: is sliding down the nonlinear and steep part of the

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Speaker 5: Phillips curve or the beverage curve, and we're about getting

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Speaker 5: to that part where it starts to get harder to

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Speaker 5: generate a percentage point of disinflation, which is what we

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Speaker 5: need right now. We need another percentage point of disinflation,

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Speaker 5: and we won't know exactly whether that's right, whether we're

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Speaker 5: indeed stuck at three percent inflation until twenty twenty five

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Speaker 5: or twenty twenty six, And as Mike said, and that's

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Speaker 5: when only the sentiment today is that we're the FED

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Speaker 5: is definitely sticking with the two percent mandate, price stability mandate,

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Speaker 5: but in twenty twenty five and twenty twenty six, it

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Speaker 5: will be very clear whether inflation is indeed stuck. So

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Speaker 5: from my view, I've looked at arranged models and also

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Speaker 5: looked at bottom up way of looking at inflation forecasts.

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Speaker 5: I do think that there's a hard mile to inflation.

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Speaker 5: It might not be a whole percentage point, but it's

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Speaker 5: very likely that inflation core PCE deflator could be stuck

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Speaker 5: at two point seven percent or above, and the Fed

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Speaker 5: might decide to live with it, even though verbally they

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Speaker 5: would say they are still trying to achieve the two percent,

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Speaker 5: because it is very hard to get from two point

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Speaker 5: seven to two percent.

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Speaker 1: Now, we've certainly seen how hard it's been just to

436
00:25:15,880 --> 00:25:18,199
Speaker 1: get to where we are right now. Thank you to

437
00:25:18,240 --> 00:25:21,400
Speaker 1: the both of you for joining us. Michael McKee, international

438
00:25:21,440 --> 00:25:25,200
Speaker 1: economics and Policy correspondent for Bloomberg Radio and Television, and

439
00:25:25,359 --> 00:25:30,080
Speaker 1: Anna Wong, Chief US economist at Bloomberg Economics. Up next,

440
00:25:30,119 --> 00:25:32,719
Speaker 1: If you're still looking for travel deals this summer, we'll

441
00:25:32,800 --> 00:25:35,639
Speaker 1: check in with the Point Sky Brian Kelly on this

442
00:25:35,800 --> 00:25:40,040
Speaker 1: kickoff weekend for summer getaways. It's thirty seven minutes past

443
00:25:40,040 --> 00:25:46,680
Speaker 1: the hour. I'm Nathan Hager, and this is Bloomberg. Thanks

444
00:25:46,680 --> 00:25:49,000
Speaker 1: again for being with us on this special edition of

445
00:25:49,000 --> 00:25:52,679
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Daybreak. I'm Nathan Hager. US markets are closed for

446
00:25:52,800 --> 00:25:56,320
Speaker 1: the Memorial Day holiday, but the roads, rails, and airports

447
00:25:56,359 --> 00:25:59,720
Speaker 1: most certainly are not. Of course, Memorial Day marks the

448
00:26:00,080 --> 00:26:03,440
Speaker 1: official kickoff of summer travel season, and to hear the

449
00:26:03,440 --> 00:26:05,600
Speaker 1: folks at Triple A tel It, this could be one

450
00:26:05,640 --> 00:26:08,800
Speaker 1: of the busiest travel weekends since they started keeping track

451
00:26:08,880 --> 00:26:12,600
Speaker 1: more than two decades ago. That pent up demand post

452
00:26:12,640 --> 00:26:15,760
Speaker 1: COVID could be ready to burst big time, even with

453
00:26:15,960 --> 00:26:19,600
Speaker 1: inflation and interest rates sticking with us through these warm months.

454
00:26:19,640 --> 00:26:23,160
Speaker 1: So who better to help us stretch that travel dollar

455
00:26:23,240 --> 00:26:25,320
Speaker 1: as we make our way through summer than the Points

456
00:26:25,400 --> 00:26:29,119
Speaker 1: guy himself, Brian Kelly is with us. Brian, thanks for

457
00:26:29,160 --> 00:26:31,000
Speaker 1: taking time out for what I am sure is a

458
00:26:31,240 --> 00:26:32,159
Speaker 1: very busy time for you.

459
00:26:33,160 --> 00:26:34,199
Speaker 6: Of course, thanks for having me.

460
00:26:34,400 --> 00:26:37,760
Speaker 1: So you were calling last summer the summer of domestic travel.

461
00:26:37,840 --> 00:26:39,640
Speaker 1: This year, you say it's going to be the summer

462
00:26:39,680 --> 00:26:43,520
Speaker 1: for international travel, even with prices where they are.

463
00:26:44,440 --> 00:26:46,720
Speaker 6: Yeah, you know when you actually look at the prices,

464
00:26:46,760 --> 00:26:49,440
Speaker 6: And I've been booking a lot of European trips this summer,

465
00:26:50,359 --> 00:26:53,480
Speaker 6: especially in business and first class. There's actually a lot

466
00:26:53,600 --> 00:26:57,159
Speaker 6: of great deals out there. There's an interesting dynamic going

467
00:26:57,240 --> 00:27:00,000
Speaker 6: on in the marketplace. You know, the airlines have actually

468
00:27:00,359 --> 00:27:06,320
Speaker 6: upgauged a lot of routes, adding more capacity to Europe

469
00:27:06,840 --> 00:27:10,280
Speaker 6: than we've seen before. There's about three hundred thousand more

470
00:27:10,320 --> 00:27:13,399
Speaker 6: seats that the US carriers will have to all of

471
00:27:13,400 --> 00:27:16,280
Speaker 6: Europe this summer. So it's had an interesting impact on prices.

472
00:27:16,320 --> 00:27:21,000
Speaker 6: We have not seen the spike in prices that would

473
00:27:21,240 --> 00:27:24,800
Speaker 6: go along with the increase in demand. We're also seeing

474
00:27:24,840 --> 00:27:30,600
Speaker 6: now more increased competition from lower cost carriers, and you know,

475
00:27:31,200 --> 00:27:34,600
Speaker 6: broadly speaking, you know, two summers ago, especially when the

476
00:27:34,600 --> 00:27:37,479
Speaker 6: world really started to open up, we were seeing you know,

477
00:27:37,960 --> 00:27:41,920
Speaker 6: not as much demand, but such less capacity that prices

478
00:27:42,119 --> 00:27:44,680
Speaker 6: were you know, I was seeing routinely five, six or

479
00:27:44,720 --> 00:27:47,320
Speaker 6: seven thousand dollars round trip business cost tickets from the

480
00:27:47,400 --> 00:27:51,600
Speaker 6: US gateways to Europe. This summer, I'm looking at three

481
00:27:51,640 --> 00:27:54,399
Speaker 6: thousand dollars four thousand dollars fares from the West Coast

482
00:27:54,720 --> 00:27:59,159
Speaker 6: for majority of the summer, and some airlines like British Airways,

483
00:27:59,200 --> 00:28:02,520
Speaker 6: are even having four thousand dollars for first class round

484
00:28:02,520 --> 00:28:05,720
Speaker 6: trip to Europe, which I'm kind of shocked by.

485
00:28:06,119 --> 00:28:10,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, not terrible. So the airlines are providing the capacity.

486
00:28:10,880 --> 00:28:12,800
Speaker 1: What has you thinking that they're going to be able

487
00:28:12,880 --> 00:28:14,200
Speaker 1: to fill those seats.

488
00:28:15,600 --> 00:28:19,720
Speaker 6: It's an interesting question, and I think why we are

489
00:28:19,800 --> 00:28:23,119
Speaker 6: seeing prices not through the roof. You know, there are

490
00:28:23,160 --> 00:28:30,120
Speaker 6: certainly some routes that you'll see increase pricing, specifically Paris Paris.

491
00:28:30,440 --> 00:28:32,240
Speaker 6: The thing about Paris you have to worry about the summer.

492
00:28:32,440 --> 00:28:36,360
Speaker 6: I was actually just before chatting with you, looking at

493
00:28:36,440 --> 00:28:38,440
Speaker 6: a June trip. You know, the Olympics start at the

494
00:28:38,560 --> 00:28:41,240
Speaker 6: end of July, so you know, really end of July

495
00:28:41,320 --> 00:28:45,560
Speaker 6: and August Paris. You know, gird, you're loin prepared to

496
00:28:45,600 --> 00:28:49,160
Speaker 6: pay through the notes, but she was looking, you know, flights.

497
00:28:49,160 --> 00:28:52,880
Speaker 6: Flights in June were much higher than normal. But what

498
00:28:52,920 --> 00:28:55,240
Speaker 6: you really need to look out for is hotels, man

499
00:28:55,400 --> 00:28:58,880
Speaker 6: especially luxury hotels. This is where I'm seeing real inflation.

500
00:28:59,080 --> 00:28:59,400
Speaker 3: Stay.

501
00:28:59,760 --> 00:29:02,760
Speaker 6: We're seeing those twenty twenty three numbers, twenty twenty two

502
00:29:02,760 --> 00:29:06,280
Speaker 6: when hotel rates. You know that the average luxury hotel used,

503
00:29:06,320 --> 00:29:07,800
Speaker 6: you know, seven hundred bucks used to be able to

504
00:29:07,840 --> 00:29:10,720
Speaker 6: get you a nice room at a four seasons. You

505
00:29:10,760 --> 00:29:14,280
Speaker 6: know that's now seventeen hundred and in Paris. If you

506
00:29:14,400 --> 00:29:17,520
Speaker 6: like luxury hotels in Paris, the new norm is twenty

507
00:29:17,520 --> 00:29:21,560
Speaker 6: five hundred to three thousand euros a night, wow for

508
00:29:21,680 --> 00:29:24,800
Speaker 6: those top twenty hotels. And it is and it seems

509
00:29:24,840 --> 00:29:28,200
Speaker 6: to be persistent all summer long. So this is the

510
00:29:28,280 --> 00:29:31,760
Speaker 6: summer where it behooves you to look outside the box.

511
00:29:31,800 --> 00:29:36,920
Speaker 6: There's still plenty of affordable, beautiful destinations in Europe that

512
00:29:37,000 --> 00:29:41,600
Speaker 6: are not a Malfy coast south of France, you know,

513
00:29:41,920 --> 00:29:42,840
Speaker 6: Greek islands.

514
00:29:43,040 --> 00:29:45,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean some of those places obviously are going

515
00:29:45,440 --> 00:29:47,600
Speaker 1: to be high demand, not just because of the Olympics

516
00:29:47,600 --> 00:29:51,520
Speaker 1: in Paris particularly, but we've had the Taylor swift Eras

517
00:29:51,560 --> 00:29:53,640
Speaker 1: tour going there as well. It makes you think that

518
00:29:53,760 --> 00:29:57,320
Speaker 1: maybe August early September might be the best time frame

519
00:29:57,680 --> 00:29:59,680
Speaker 1: to go to the City of Lights. But what other

520
00:29:59,720 --> 00:30:02,680
Speaker 1: desks to nations are you looking at where we might

521
00:30:02,760 --> 00:30:06,600
Speaker 1: be able to stretch that kind of strong dollar that

522
00:30:06,640 --> 00:30:09,640
Speaker 1: we still have given where rates are right now.

523
00:30:10,600 --> 00:30:13,480
Speaker 6: Absolutely, the US dollar is still a beast no matter

524
00:30:13,760 --> 00:30:16,320
Speaker 6: how you look at it. You know, I was just

525
00:30:16,360 --> 00:30:19,720
Speaker 6: in South Africa. That's a perennial favorite for me. You know,

526
00:30:19,760 --> 00:30:22,400
Speaker 6: of course, you notice, you know, with Argentinas, you know,

527
00:30:22,480 --> 00:30:25,600
Speaker 6: even though they're trying to turn their currency around, huge

528
00:30:25,720 --> 00:30:28,680
Speaker 6: value to be had. Now, just note, obviously our summer

529
00:30:28,840 --> 00:30:32,520
Speaker 6: is their winter. But you know, winter in Buenos Aires

530
00:30:32,640 --> 00:30:34,760
Speaker 6: is not like winter in New York City or Chicago.

531
00:30:34,920 --> 00:30:40,920
Speaker 6: So you can still have incredible travel experiences, less crowds

532
00:30:40,960 --> 00:30:44,680
Speaker 6: than you know, going to Europe in peak summer months.

533
00:30:44,680 --> 00:30:47,480
Speaker 6: And I'll just tell my fellow Americans out there, haven't

534
00:30:47,480 --> 00:30:49,200
Speaker 6: been to Europe in a while, you know, especially with

535
00:30:49,280 --> 00:30:53,800
Speaker 6: sweltering heat records constantly. You know, I foresee that again

536
00:30:53,880 --> 00:30:57,120
Speaker 6: this summer. I was in Florence two summers ago when

537
00:30:57,160 --> 00:30:59,959
Speaker 6: it was in the nineties. And when I tell you these,

538
00:31:00,280 --> 00:31:02,520
Speaker 6: a lot of these European cities are not equipped for

539
00:31:02,560 --> 00:31:05,080
Speaker 6: the level of heat they're about to see. And you

540
00:31:05,160 --> 00:31:08,600
Speaker 6: see restaurants, you know, the air conditioning units petering out

541
00:31:09,520 --> 00:31:13,960
Speaker 6: and it's just hot on the street. So be careful booking,

542
00:31:14,280 --> 00:31:19,320
Speaker 6: you know, in Europe peak dates in July and August,

543
00:31:19,520 --> 00:31:22,280
Speaker 6: because you're not going to get the greatest experience. Also

544
00:31:22,320 --> 00:31:24,480
Speaker 6: in August in Europe, a lot of the locals leave,

545
00:31:24,560 --> 00:31:26,960
Speaker 6: so you're going to be paying a premium to be

546
00:31:27,040 --> 00:31:30,959
Speaker 6: sweating with fellow Americans, which sort of defeats the purpose

547
00:31:31,040 --> 00:31:33,000
Speaker 6: of going to get the European experience.

548
00:31:33,400 --> 00:31:33,640
Speaker 5: Yeah.

549
00:31:34,280 --> 00:31:38,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's pretty difficult, a pretty difficult time all around

550
00:31:38,240 --> 00:31:41,480
Speaker 1: in Europe anyway. I mean, given the way the geopolitics

551
00:31:41,520 --> 00:31:44,840
Speaker 1: are in some ways and a lot of what you mentioned,

552
00:31:44,920 --> 00:31:48,200
Speaker 1: I mean we've seen like wildfires last year. I mean,

553
00:31:48,240 --> 00:31:51,240
Speaker 1: are you thinking, like, other than some of those more

554
00:31:51,360 --> 00:31:55,480
Speaker 1: obvious events that are happening in Europe right now, that

555
00:31:56,000 --> 00:31:59,160
Speaker 1: maybe some of the more off the beaten path travel

556
00:31:59,200 --> 00:32:02,320
Speaker 1: destinations might just be a better bet all in all,

557
00:32:02,360 --> 00:32:04,800
Speaker 1: given the what the dynamics are in Europe right now.

558
00:32:05,520 --> 00:32:07,920
Speaker 6: Absolutely, And this is I think a great time to

559
00:32:07,920 --> 00:32:10,840
Speaker 6: talk about travel insurance too. I've never really been a

560
00:32:10,840 --> 00:32:13,320
Speaker 6: big travel insurance person. You know, most of the time

561
00:32:13,360 --> 00:32:17,320
Speaker 6: with our credit cards, you get basic coverage if you know,

562
00:32:17,400 --> 00:32:20,719
Speaker 6: something crazy happens, your flight gets canceled even now due

563
00:32:20,760 --> 00:32:24,880
Speaker 6: to weather delays. You know, you can get good protections

564
00:32:24,920 --> 00:32:27,520
Speaker 6: if you've got a premium travel credit card. But what

565
00:32:27,520 --> 00:32:30,120
Speaker 6: people don't realize is, you know, for example, Mali, you

566
00:32:30,120 --> 00:32:33,480
Speaker 6: know when Mawy had those wildfires that appeared out of nowhere,

567
00:32:34,480 --> 00:32:37,120
Speaker 6: You're not going to get refunded from your hotel. Most

568
00:32:37,160 --> 00:32:40,200
Speaker 6: of the hotel chains did not refund their customers, and

569
00:32:40,480 --> 00:32:43,160
Speaker 6: I actually think it's a wake up call for consumers.

570
00:32:43,200 --> 00:32:48,480
Speaker 6: When you're buying travel, it does not come with protections

571
00:32:48,520 --> 00:32:51,080
Speaker 6: from these events, and you should not expect, especially if

572
00:32:51,080 --> 00:32:54,200
Speaker 6: you're staying at a boutique hotel, you should not expect

573
00:32:54,240 --> 00:32:56,760
Speaker 6: that that small hotel owner who's going to go through

574
00:32:57,440 --> 00:33:00,480
Speaker 6: a horrible financial time to also underwrite the risk for

575
00:33:00,560 --> 00:33:02,880
Speaker 6: you and your room. You know, I think in America

576
00:33:02,880 --> 00:33:04,440
Speaker 6: we've got this sense of well, if I don't get

577
00:33:04,520 --> 00:33:07,560
Speaker 6: what I paid for, I deserve a refund. But in

578
00:33:07,600 --> 00:33:11,640
Speaker 6: these cases, especially strikes, strikes are happening all over Europe.

579
00:33:12,160 --> 00:33:14,880
Speaker 6: When a strike happens, you know, even your credit card

580
00:33:14,920 --> 00:33:17,959
Speaker 6: may not come through. So more than ever, paying five

581
00:33:18,120 --> 00:33:20,520
Speaker 6: to ten percent of the total cost to your trip

582
00:33:20,560 --> 00:33:22,640
Speaker 6: and travel insurance to give you the peace of mind.

583
00:33:23,200 --> 00:33:25,160
Speaker 6: And now to your point, going to some of the

584
00:33:25,200 --> 00:33:27,240
Speaker 6: more far flung destinations where you're going to get a

585
00:33:27,240 --> 00:33:31,840
Speaker 6: better experience. I love Africa. Africa in the summer, you know,

586
00:33:31,920 --> 00:33:35,760
Speaker 6: certain African safaris, the great migration happens in June. I've

587
00:33:35,800 --> 00:33:40,239
Speaker 6: done that in Tanzania and Kenya. Absolutely spectacular these are

588
00:33:40,240 --> 00:33:42,040
Speaker 6: the trips where you might want to invest in that

589
00:33:42,120 --> 00:33:45,640
Speaker 6: comprehensive travel insurance. And you know, especially if you get sick.

590
00:33:46,200 --> 00:33:48,640
Speaker 6: I just you know, did a piece on you know,

591
00:33:48,800 --> 00:33:52,240
Speaker 6: I got food poisoning recently. Luckily it wasn't so bad.

592
00:33:52,320 --> 00:33:56,280
Speaker 6: But I've had thousands of comments from my followers who

593
00:33:56,320 --> 00:33:59,520
Speaker 6: have said travel insurance is a godsend when you're abroad

594
00:33:59,520 --> 00:34:02,960
Speaker 6: because most American insurance, you know, health insurance does not

595
00:34:03,040 --> 00:34:05,760
Speaker 6: cover you abroad, and the credit card coverage is shaky.

596
00:34:05,880 --> 00:34:09,759
Speaker 6: So my final point on travel insurance I'm not paid

597
00:34:09,760 --> 00:34:12,200
Speaker 6: by any one travel insurance company is never get it

598
00:34:12,200 --> 00:34:16,000
Speaker 6: through your airline or hotel. Always go. There are sites

599
00:34:16,040 --> 00:34:19,239
Speaker 6: like ensure my Trip where you can compare and contrast

600
00:34:19,400 --> 00:34:22,360
Speaker 6: and price match policies. But never just buy a policy

601
00:34:22,400 --> 00:34:24,719
Speaker 6: one off from a travel provider because it's easy in

602
00:34:24,760 --> 00:34:28,160
Speaker 6: the point of sale. Always look, but you'd be surprised.

603
00:34:28,200 --> 00:34:30,160
Speaker 6: Even if you get laid off from your job, travel

604
00:34:30,160 --> 00:34:31,840
Speaker 6: insurance will let you cancel your trip and get all

605
00:34:31,840 --> 00:34:32,399
Speaker 6: your money back.

606
00:34:32,520 --> 00:34:34,839
Speaker 1: Yeah, to your point about the Africa experience, You've been

607
00:34:34,840 --> 00:34:36,840
Speaker 1: doing a lot of reporting at Bloomberg here as well

608
00:34:36,920 --> 00:34:39,880
Speaker 1: about how a lot of countries in Africa are starting

609
00:34:39,920 --> 00:34:42,080
Speaker 1: to invest a lot more in sort of that luxury

610
00:34:42,120 --> 00:34:46,320
Speaker 1: safari experience as well. But what you're talking about higher

611
00:34:46,320 --> 00:34:51,400
Speaker 1: hotel prices advising people to get insurance, The costs start

612
00:34:51,480 --> 00:34:53,880
Speaker 1: to add up, don't they. So I mean, how do

613
00:34:53,960 --> 00:34:57,320
Speaker 1: you stretch that travel dollar if you're going to be

614
00:34:57,400 --> 00:35:01,200
Speaker 1: running into you know, pretty elevated once you get to

615
00:35:01,239 --> 00:35:02,040
Speaker 1: your destination.

616
00:35:02,280 --> 00:35:04,400
Speaker 6: Absolutely so, say you're still hell bent on going to

617
00:35:04,440 --> 00:35:06,680
Speaker 6: the Amalfi coast, right, I guess a lot of people

618
00:35:06,719 --> 00:35:10,800
Speaker 6: are most of those hotels now because there's such high demand.

619
00:35:10,920 --> 00:35:14,359
Speaker 6: Not only are you paying two thousand euros a night

620
00:35:14,480 --> 00:35:18,400
Speaker 6: or more, they're non refundable months in advance. And this

621
00:35:18,560 --> 00:35:22,120
Speaker 6: is a risky game. So well, first off, and that's

622
00:35:22,160 --> 00:35:24,440
Speaker 6: where I would say travel insurance that paying the extra

623
00:35:24,520 --> 00:35:27,120
Speaker 6: five percent to give you the peace of mind. Say

624
00:35:27,239 --> 00:35:30,359
Speaker 6: you your spouse kid gets sick, it's covered, You'll get

625
00:35:30,360 --> 00:35:32,680
Speaker 6: that money back. That's when it really starts to make sense.

626
00:35:33,600 --> 00:35:36,160
Speaker 6: But back to your point of how to save, there

627
00:35:36,200 --> 00:35:41,000
Speaker 6: are still incredible, incredible points deals. Air France has been

628
00:35:41,040 --> 00:35:42,919
Speaker 6: the star of the show this year. If you ask

629
00:35:42,960 --> 00:35:46,600
Speaker 6: any frequent flyer in the know, Air France has released

630
00:35:46,640 --> 00:35:51,520
Speaker 6: more fifty thousand point business class awards from major US

631
00:35:51,560 --> 00:35:55,600
Speaker 6: cities across the country to Europe, you can find fifty

632
00:35:55,640 --> 00:35:59,400
Speaker 6: thousand dollars one way business class flights. And when you

633
00:35:59,600 --> 00:36:03,360
Speaker 6: if you compare that to the American airlines, you know, Delta,

634
00:36:03,400 --> 00:36:05,799
Speaker 6: their partner for the same flights, will often charge five

635
00:36:05,840 --> 00:36:09,719
Speaker 6: hundred thousand miles for four hundred thousand. So there's been

636
00:36:09,760 --> 00:36:15,239
Speaker 6: this huge inflation in the US airline currencies. The international

637
00:36:15,239 --> 00:36:19,200
Speaker 6: airlines are where the tremendous value is. I love air

638
00:36:19,640 --> 00:36:21,960
Speaker 6: you know the Flying Blue program. It's a transfer partner

639
00:36:21,960 --> 00:36:25,040
Speaker 6: of all the major credit card companies. So my one

640
00:36:25,040 --> 00:36:26,960
Speaker 6: tip there too is don't just put all your miles

641
00:36:27,000 --> 00:36:29,360
Speaker 6: with one airline. I know, even if you fly the

642
00:36:29,360 --> 00:36:31,759
Speaker 6: one airline, you want to be loyal. What happens is

643
00:36:31,760 --> 00:36:33,920
Speaker 6: when you just get that co branded card for that car,

644
00:36:34,080 --> 00:36:37,080
Speaker 6: you're banking up in a currency where it could you know,

645
00:36:37,120 --> 00:36:39,200
Speaker 6: the inflation could go through the roof. And actually, the

646
00:36:39,280 --> 00:36:43,160
Speaker 6: US government just had a hearing on airlines being naughty,

647
00:36:43,719 --> 00:36:46,200
Speaker 6: and you know they're issuing these frequent flyer miles and

648
00:36:46,239 --> 00:36:49,240
Speaker 6: then just continuously, year over years, they'll double the amount

649
00:36:49,280 --> 00:36:52,440
Speaker 6: of miles you need to go to Europe the international

650
00:36:52,440 --> 00:36:54,920
Speaker 6: programs are where it's at, and they often have transfer

651
00:36:54,960 --> 00:36:59,400
Speaker 6: bonuses from AMX and Chase to Flying Blue to Aeroplan

652
00:36:59,520 --> 00:37:03,760
Speaker 6: to Virgin Atlantic. So become an expert on these foreign

653
00:37:03,760 --> 00:37:07,400
Speaker 6: freaking flyer programs, and there's a whole new crop of

654
00:37:07,880 --> 00:37:10,439
Speaker 6: tools that will you know, like when you buy a flight,

655
00:37:10,520 --> 00:37:12,960
Speaker 6: Google flights, Google dot com, slash flights is where you

656
00:37:12,960 --> 00:37:14,719
Speaker 6: know you should go to start your flight search. When

657
00:37:14,760 --> 00:37:16,839
Speaker 6: you're going to pay for a flight, we'll say you've

658
00:37:16,840 --> 00:37:19,880
Speaker 6: got a lot of different AMX and Chase points in delta.

659
00:37:19,960 --> 00:37:22,279
Speaker 6: It's really confusing because historically you have to go to

660
00:37:22,320 --> 00:37:24,440
Speaker 6: each and every one of those websites to see what

661
00:37:24,480 --> 00:37:27,200
Speaker 6: they're offering for points. But now there's a site called

662
00:37:27,239 --> 00:37:30,759
Speaker 6: point me. It's so the website's point dot me and

663
00:37:30,880 --> 00:37:34,120
Speaker 6: it's basically like Google flights, but for your award miles.

664
00:37:34,200 --> 00:37:36,080
Speaker 6: It'll pull in a ton of options for all the

665
00:37:36,120 --> 00:37:39,040
Speaker 6: different airlines so you can compare and contrast, Oh, hey,

666
00:37:39,080 --> 00:37:41,480
Speaker 6: maybe I should use my United miles on this flight,

667
00:37:41,840 --> 00:37:44,319
Speaker 6: or actually American has a much better deal. It'll pull

668
00:37:44,360 --> 00:37:46,799
Speaker 6: it all together on one screen, which can help you

669
00:37:46,960 --> 00:37:49,840
Speaker 6: get the best value on flights. So when you have

670
00:37:49,880 --> 00:37:52,040
Speaker 6: to shell out for hotels. Hey, look, if at least

671
00:37:52,040 --> 00:37:54,680
Speaker 6: the flights are free, that is a tremendous savings for

672
00:37:54,719 --> 00:37:55,560
Speaker 6: your travel budget.

673
00:37:55,719 --> 00:37:57,839
Speaker 1: Thanks for this, Brian, really great having on with us.

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00:37:58,400 --> 00:38:00,600
Speaker 6: Thanks for having me, Safe travels, and to you.

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00:38:00,760 --> 00:38:04,960
Speaker 1: That's Brian Kelly, The Point Sky with us on Bloomberg Daybreak.

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00:38:05,360 --> 00:38:08,360
Speaker 1: Our thanks to The Point Sky founder Brian Kelly, and

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00:38:08,400 --> 00:38:12,080
Speaker 1: we also want to thank BN y Melon's Alicia Levine, Investoes,

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00:38:12,120 --> 00:38:16,040
Speaker 1: Brian Levitt, and Bloomberg's Michael McKee and Anna Wong. Thanks

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00:38:16,080 --> 00:38:18,200
Speaker 1: as well to you for joining us on this special

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00:38:18,360 --> 00:38:22,160
Speaker 1: edition of Bloomberg Daybreak. It's fifty nine minutes past the hour.

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00:38:22,239 --> 00:38:25,040
Speaker 1: I'm Nathan Hager. Stay with us. The top stories and

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Speaker 1: global business headlines are coming up right now