1
00:00:03,120 --> 00:00:07,720
Speaker 1: Broadcasting live to New York Cloomberg even to Washington, d C,

2
00:00:07,920 --> 00:00:13,160
Speaker 1: Bloomberg to Boston, Bloomberg twelve Honors, to San Francisco, Bloomberg

3
00:00:14,040 --> 00:00:17,639
Speaker 1: to the Country Julius Exam Channel one ninety and around

4
00:00:17,680 --> 00:00:21,480
Speaker 1: the globe the Bloomberg Radio Bus, Bloomberg dot Com. This

5
00:00:21,720 --> 00:00:25,599
Speaker 1: is Bloomberk Surveillance. Good morning. It is eight thirty on

6
00:00:25,800 --> 00:00:29,440
Speaker 1: Wallstreet at Michael McKee along with Tom Keene Economic indicators

7
00:00:29,560 --> 00:00:32,560
Speaker 1: brought to by Commonwealth Financial Network. When it's time to

8
00:00:32,640 --> 00:00:35,000
Speaker 1: change the conversation, talk with a broker dealer r I

9
00:00:35,120 --> 00:00:37,440
Speaker 1: A that's ready to listen call eight six six four

10
00:00:37,520 --> 00:00:39,519
Speaker 1: six two or three six three eight or is it

11
00:00:39,560 --> 00:00:43,040
Speaker 1: Commonwealth dot com to learn more. Well, we've had the

12
00:00:43,159 --> 00:00:45,640
Speaker 1: n f I B numbers out for a couple of hours.

13
00:00:45,720 --> 00:00:48,239
Speaker 1: We told you about that at ninety three six for

14
00:00:48,280 --> 00:00:51,960
Speaker 1: the month, up from ninety six a month ago. The

15
00:00:52,000 --> 00:00:55,480
Speaker 1: next numbers come out at ten am Wholesale inventories, trade related,

16
00:00:55,520 --> 00:00:58,760
Speaker 1: not a major indicator, and then attend also jolts the

17
00:00:58,880 --> 00:01:01,760
Speaker 1: job openings numbers. They're two months old, they're from March,

18
00:01:01,880 --> 00:01:04,000
Speaker 1: but they are followed on Wall Street because they give

19
00:01:04,040 --> 00:01:07,319
Speaker 1: us an indication of like how much, how many openings

20
00:01:07,319 --> 00:01:09,400
Speaker 1: there are out there, and what kind of pressures there are.

21
00:01:09,400 --> 00:01:12,760
Speaker 1: There's a so quit index in that tom that people follow,

22
00:01:13,400 --> 00:01:15,760
Speaker 1: the more people who are quitting, and I feel like

23
00:01:15,800 --> 00:01:18,959
Speaker 1: it the economy is better to summarize all this mumbo

24
00:01:19,040 --> 00:01:21,800
Speaker 1: jumbo Mike Force. When I look at Joel's job opening,

25
00:01:22,319 --> 00:01:25,520
Speaker 1: does that skew to the count of the jobs report

26
00:01:25,600 --> 00:01:28,280
Speaker 1: we saw the other day? Or does it skew towards

27
00:01:28,360 --> 00:01:32,360
Speaker 1: wage increases? An hour's increased? What's the trend there? Well,

28
00:01:32,520 --> 00:01:37,840
Speaker 1: it would relate more to what's available out there, because

29
00:01:37,959 --> 00:01:41,440
Speaker 1: it doesn't it doesn't suggest to you how hard it

30
00:01:41,480 --> 00:01:43,280
Speaker 1: is to Well, it may it may show you that

31
00:01:43,280 --> 00:01:44,920
Speaker 1: that it's hard to fill the jobs, but we don't

32
00:01:44,920 --> 00:01:47,080
Speaker 1: know the makeup of the job. So Lindsay px A

33
00:01:47,200 --> 00:01:51,160
Speaker 1: with us UH with Stiffian Nicholas. She joins us Now, Lindsey,

34
00:01:51,160 --> 00:01:54,640
Speaker 1: good morning, UM. Within the minutia that Mike just talked about,

35
00:01:54,720 --> 00:01:58,040
Speaker 1: what is the key labor dynamic of this nation that

36
00:01:58,080 --> 00:02:01,240
Speaker 1: you see right now? Well, right now we are seeing

37
00:02:01,280 --> 00:02:04,360
Speaker 1: positive job creation. That's the good news. We've seen nearly

38
00:02:04,440 --> 00:02:08,160
Speaker 1: seventy consecutive months of positive non farm paerils. But the

39
00:02:08,200 --> 00:02:12,079
Speaker 1: pace of hiring remains insufficient to spark wage pressures at

40
00:02:12,080 --> 00:02:15,000
Speaker 1: this point. Now, we did see some nice upward momentum

41
00:02:15,040 --> 00:02:17,160
Speaker 1: at the end of last year, up to about two

42
00:02:17,200 --> 00:02:20,440
Speaker 1: point six percent, but since then we've seen that momentum

43
00:02:20,440 --> 00:02:23,440
Speaker 1: and wages wane back down to that trend pace of

44
00:02:23,560 --> 00:02:26,400
Speaker 1: just about two percent that's been established since the end

45
00:02:26,400 --> 00:02:28,880
Speaker 1: of the Great Recession. So really the key what we're

46
00:02:28,880 --> 00:02:31,960
Speaker 1: looking at the labor market is waiting for upward momentum

47
00:02:31,960 --> 00:02:35,600
Speaker 1: in additional wages or income for the average worker. Well,

48
00:02:35,680 --> 00:02:39,040
Speaker 1: we we are seeing average generally earnings rise, we are

49
00:02:39,080 --> 00:02:43,840
Speaker 1: seeing wages rise. There does seem to be some pressure

50
00:02:43,840 --> 00:02:46,639
Speaker 1: building in those areas. I think there's some There are

51
00:02:46,680 --> 00:02:49,639
Speaker 1: some early indications that wages are picking up, but the

52
00:02:49,680 --> 00:02:54,240
Speaker 1: trend really gives me no sense of discernible directional momentum

53
00:02:54,280 --> 00:02:56,880
Speaker 1: one way or the other. Again, we've seen this type

54
00:02:56,880 --> 00:02:59,239
Speaker 1: of outside increase at the beginning of the year. We

55
00:02:59,280 --> 00:03:02,040
Speaker 1: saw this in two thousand fourteen, but we're right back

56
00:03:02,120 --> 00:03:04,640
Speaker 1: down in line a year in that trend rate. So

57
00:03:04,680 --> 00:03:07,239
Speaker 1: I really want to see more momentum before I get

58
00:03:07,240 --> 00:03:10,000
Speaker 1: behind the idea that wages are increasing. But then the

59
00:03:10,040 --> 00:03:13,079
Speaker 1: money question Lindsay, and you're very good at this. Is

60
00:03:13,200 --> 00:03:18,280
Speaker 1: it is it an all in one nation macro analysis,

61
00:03:18,840 --> 00:03:23,359
Speaker 1: or as Lindsay, pegs are doing a bimodal to America's analysis,

62
00:03:23,680 --> 00:03:27,800
Speaker 1: whereas Bill Dunkelberg just said, you can't find workers, and

63
00:03:27,880 --> 00:03:29,959
Speaker 1: yet a lot of other people are saying we've got

64
00:03:30,000 --> 00:03:34,079
Speaker 1: millions unemployed. Which analysis do you use? No, I think

65
00:03:34,080 --> 00:03:36,640
Speaker 1: we need to break it down and to to the

66
00:03:36,680 --> 00:03:39,840
Speaker 1: point that wages are rising. We are seeing upward wage

67
00:03:39,840 --> 00:03:44,160
Speaker 1: pressure in particular areas of the economy where specific skills

68
00:03:44,160 --> 00:03:47,000
Speaker 1: are in high demand but in low supply. So we

69
00:03:47,080 --> 00:03:49,320
Speaker 1: talked to employers around the country and they're looking for

70
00:03:49,440 --> 00:03:53,800
Speaker 1: individuals with skills around i T. Engineering, craft, labor accounting.

71
00:03:54,280 --> 00:03:56,960
Speaker 1: But a lot of the individuals that are seeking employment

72
00:03:57,400 --> 00:04:00,720
Speaker 1: don't necessarily have those skills to fill the job vacancies.

73
00:04:01,080 --> 00:04:02,960
Speaker 1: So again, we really have to break this down and

74
00:04:03,040 --> 00:04:06,280
Speaker 1: look at look at it across sectors again, where some

75
00:04:06,360 --> 00:04:10,840
Speaker 1: sectors are fearing much better, others still well under pressure.

76
00:04:11,840 --> 00:04:15,320
Speaker 1: The Federal Reserve is considering whether to raise interest rates

77
00:04:15,360 --> 00:04:19,520
Speaker 1: in June and July and September. Does it really matter

78
00:04:19,839 --> 00:04:23,240
Speaker 1: whether they do or not? Oh, it certainly does it

79
00:04:23,360 --> 00:04:27,280
Speaker 1: signals a level of confidence and a level of expectations

80
00:04:27,320 --> 00:04:31,559
Speaker 1: for where policymakers see the economy going. So that's first

81
00:04:31,560 --> 00:04:34,120
Speaker 1: and foremost. It's really going to drive the expectations for

82
00:04:34,240 --> 00:04:38,200
Speaker 1: underlying growth in terms of reality, when an economy is

83
00:04:38,240 --> 00:04:41,520
Speaker 1: growing struggling to grow, I should say, at this stagnant

84
00:04:41,520 --> 00:04:45,520
Speaker 1: two percent page, twenty basis point increase may not seem

85
00:04:45,600 --> 00:04:48,200
Speaker 1: like a lot, but I think in this fragile state,

86
00:04:48,279 --> 00:04:51,000
Speaker 1: it'll feel a lot more like a hundred basis points,

87
00:04:51,040 --> 00:04:53,680
Speaker 1: or maybe a hundred and fifty basis points. And so

88
00:04:53,720 --> 00:04:58,440
Speaker 1: when really we have this type of weak, fragile fundamentals,

89
00:04:58,440 --> 00:05:01,720
Speaker 1: further removal of accommodate shon will be a net drag

90
00:05:01,880 --> 00:05:05,000
Speaker 1: on top line growth. Lindsey, thank you so much, Lindsay

91
00:05:05,040 --> 00:05:08,120
Speaker 1: Pax It joins us from Stiff and Nicholas greatly appreciated

92
00:05:08,160 --> 00:05:10,680
Speaker 1: a quick visit this morning as we look at uh

93
00:05:11,080 --> 00:05:15,160
Speaker 1: the trend part. What Mike, Neil Dudda out in Chicago

94
00:05:15,920 --> 00:05:18,400
Speaker 1: cubs are just tearing things up. Yeah, they are, Neil

95
00:05:18,480 --> 00:05:21,360
Speaker 1: Dudda with labor power, which I thought was a very

96
00:05:21,400 --> 00:05:25,760
Speaker 1: interesting phrase suggesting we may see labor power. Mike, it

97
00:05:25,920 --> 00:05:31,640
Speaker 1: is seven thousand seventy one miles seventies seventy one miles.

98
00:05:32,279 --> 00:05:37,080
Speaker 1: The President of the United States will travel to Hiroshima,

99
00:05:37,560 --> 00:05:41,360
Speaker 1: if you are of a certain vintage. That is quite

100
00:05:41,520 --> 00:05:44,200
Speaker 1: a release from the White House. Yeah, I have the

101
00:05:44,279 --> 00:05:49,320
Speaker 1: first sitting president to visit Hiroshima, and for all the

102
00:05:49,360 --> 00:05:53,120
Speaker 1: symbolism that brings forward. He's also going to Vietnam. Now

103
00:05:53,200 --> 00:05:56,360
Speaker 1: Bill Clinton went to Vietnam, but it is it is

104
00:05:56,400 --> 00:06:01,120
Speaker 1: going to be very interesting, just amazing. John Dower of

105
00:06:01,240 --> 00:06:04,159
Speaker 1: m I t of course of the definitive book on

106
00:06:04,279 --> 00:06:08,240
Speaker 1: how Japan adapted out of World War Two one an honor.

107
00:06:08,279 --> 00:06:12,600
Speaker 1: It was years ago to interview him for Bloomberg from Tokyo.

108
00:06:12,680 --> 00:06:15,360
Speaker 1: That was really something. The president to travel to Hiroshima,

109
00:06:15,480 --> 00:06:20,160
Speaker 1: that is uh, really something across the span of our lives.

110
00:06:20,680 --> 00:06:24,360
Speaker 1: Uh to see that futures up twelve earlier, we gave

111
00:06:24,400 --> 00:06:25,800
Speaker 1: it back. We got a little bit of a big

112
00:06:25,800 --> 00:06:28,279
Speaker 1: going on now up eight down, futures up sixty three.

113
00:06:29,000 --> 00:06:32,640
Speaker 1: The yen speaking of the President's travels a weaker, Yeah,

114
00:06:32,839 --> 00:06:35,040
Speaker 1: Mr Abbey, no doubt, wanting to drive it from one

115
00:06:35,040 --> 00:06:37,400
Speaker 1: o nine out to one twenty to be sure. The

116
00:06:37,440 --> 00:06:41,840
Speaker 1: president um can buy a kimono from Mrs Obama, uh,

117
00:06:41,880 --> 00:06:44,920
Speaker 1: and do it right in Japan. We'll see if we

118
00:06:44,960 --> 00:06:47,120
Speaker 1: get a weaker yen. We certainly get it over the

119
00:06:47,200 --> 00:06:51,960
Speaker 1: last six days. Michael Oil churning flat gold, really giving

120
00:06:51,960 --> 00:06:53,720
Speaker 1: it up the last couple of days. James Steele at

121
00:06:53,800 --> 00:06:58,760
Speaker 1: HSBC really reaffirming that with a vengeance, the Indians in

122
00:06:59,200 --> 00:07:02,440
Speaker 1: Chinese will come in in by gold given the right

123
00:07:02,520 --> 00:07:05,400
Speaker 1: price as a real bid underneath the gold due to

124
00:07:05,480 --> 00:07:10,080
Speaker 1: just intrinsic demand from India and China. Again. Features up

125
00:07:10,120 --> 00:07:18,320
Speaker 1: seven down, futures up fifty seven. This our surveillance brought

126
00:07:18,360 --> 00:07:21,400
Speaker 1: you by mont Kisco Volvo. Visit mont Kisco Volvo dot com.

127
00:07:21,560 --> 00:07:24,040
Speaker 1: Here's Michael bar with the latest news headlines. My Tom,

128
00:07:24,080 --> 00:07:26,000
Speaker 1: thank you very much voters. And to the polls for

129
00:07:26,120 --> 00:07:29,960
Speaker 1: primaries in West Virginia and in Nebraska. Today. It comes

130
00:07:29,960 --> 00:07:32,800
Speaker 1: as a new poll shows a close race in three

131
00:07:33,000 --> 00:07:38,440
Speaker 1: battle ground states. Quinnipiac University polls shows presumptive Republican presidential

132
00:07:38,480 --> 00:07:42,520
Speaker 1: nominee Donald Trump has forty three percent in Ohio to

133
00:07:42,720 --> 00:07:47,960
Speaker 1: Democratic front runner Hillary Clinton. At in Florida and Pennsylvania,

134
00:07:47,960 --> 00:07:52,960
Speaker 1: Clinton has to Trump at a move to impeach Brazilian

135
00:07:53,000 --> 00:07:56,160
Speaker 1: president dil Marusso is back on track after the head

136
00:07:56,160 --> 00:07:59,000
Speaker 1: of the lower house reversed the decision that had threatened

137
00:07:59,000 --> 00:08:03,400
Speaker 1: to bring even more drama to the entire impeachment process. Yesterday,

138
00:08:03,440 --> 00:08:06,400
Speaker 1: he had called to an impeachment sessions in the lower house,

139
00:08:06,880 --> 00:08:09,160
Speaker 1: the Brazilian Senate, with bout tomorrow and whether to put

140
00:08:09,240 --> 00:08:13,160
Speaker 1: Russof on trial. Russofs charge with illegally using state banks

141
00:08:13,200 --> 00:08:16,000
Speaker 1: to plug a hole in the budget. A strong series

142
00:08:16,000 --> 00:08:18,200
Speaker 1: of violent storms and the planes that killed at least

143
00:08:18,200 --> 00:08:21,280
Speaker 1: two people in Oklahoma are heading for parts of the

144
00:08:21,320 --> 00:08:26,120
Speaker 1: Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Today, Garvon County Sheriff Lener Rhodes

145
00:08:26,160 --> 00:08:29,560
Speaker 1: talked about the deadly twisters. You know, a disaster like this, Uh,

146
00:08:29,640 --> 00:08:33,319
Speaker 1: just one loss of life is too many. It's unfortunate.

147
00:08:33,840 --> 00:08:37,320
Speaker 1: I hate to see my residents affected this way. We've

148
00:08:37,320 --> 00:08:40,600
Speaker 1: had a lot of people, uh suffering a lost Global

149
00:08:40,640 --> 00:08:43,240
Speaker 1: News twenty four hours a day, powered by our twenty

150
00:08:43,320 --> 00:08:47,120
Speaker 1: four hundred journalists. Michael Barr, Minke, Tom, Thank you, Michael,

151
00:08:47,240 --> 00:08:51,840
Speaker 1: from the Landrover Parsippany Bloomberg NBC Sports Update. Here's John Sasha,

152
00:08:52,160 --> 00:08:55,120
Speaker 1: Thanks Mike. The legend of Steph Curry continues to grow.

153
00:08:55,160 --> 00:08:57,040
Speaker 1: About to win a second straight m v P in

154
00:08:57,040 --> 00:09:00,520
Speaker 1: a surprise, he returned from his knee injurnk came off

155
00:09:00,559 --> 00:09:03,480
Speaker 1: the bench at the time his team trailed sixteen to two.

156
00:09:03,559 --> 00:09:08,120
Speaker 1: Curry then scored forty points, including seventeen and overtime, something

157
00:09:08,160 --> 00:09:10,880
Speaker 1: no player has ever done in any regular or postseason

158
00:09:10,920 --> 00:09:14,880
Speaker 1: overtime Golden State one thirty two, Portland one five. Perry

159
00:09:14,920 --> 00:09:17,520
Speaker 1: had in nine rebounds, eight assists, and Golden State still

160
00:09:17,520 --> 00:09:20,480
Speaker 1: without back to back losses all year and up three

161
00:09:20,480 --> 00:09:23,040
Speaker 1: one in the series. Miami Toronto tie two two after

162
00:09:23,080 --> 00:09:25,559
Speaker 1: their third overtime game in the series. The heat on

163
00:09:26,520 --> 00:09:29,840
Speaker 1: seven overtime in Nashville, Predators for three over San Jose,

164
00:09:29,960 --> 00:09:32,559
Speaker 1: where they now go for a game seven tomorrow. Dallas

165
00:09:32,600 --> 00:09:34,680
Speaker 1: won three two at St. Louis Dill have Game seven

166
00:09:34,679 --> 00:09:37,679
Speaker 1: tomorrow as well, first of four Dodgers Stadium. Mets back

167
00:09:37,720 --> 00:09:39,920
Speaker 1: first time since winning last year's playoff series. They won

168
00:09:39,960 --> 00:09:42,719
Speaker 1: for two as Stephen matt turled six strong gettings to

169
00:09:42,760 --> 00:09:44,160
Speaker 1: go to five and one the Mets. They half game

170
00:09:44,240 --> 00:09:46,560
Speaker 1: had a Washington who beat Detroit with the home run

171
00:09:46,559 --> 00:09:48,120
Speaker 1: on the bottom of the ninth. The Yankees trying to

172
00:09:48,160 --> 00:09:50,319
Speaker 1: climb out of their last place whole. They made it

173
00:09:50,400 --> 00:09:52,360
Speaker 1: three or four on the homestand they beat Kansas City

174
00:09:52,400 --> 00:09:55,720
Speaker 1: six to three with five solo home runs Brian mccannon

175
00:09:55,760 --> 00:09:58,280
Speaker 1: the first inning, Carlos beltran and the second and again

176
00:09:58,640 --> 00:10:01,040
Speaker 1: in the third after Brett Pardner and Aaron Hicks went

177
00:10:01,080 --> 00:10:03,400
Speaker 1: back to back. Are all this? Japman, in his one

178
00:10:03,640 --> 00:10:06,920
Speaker 1: d mile hour fastball finished up. He made his Yankee debut,

179
00:10:07,000 --> 00:10:10,520
Speaker 1: having served date suspension for domestic violence. With the Bloomberg

180
00:10:10,640 --> 00:10:14,720
Speaker 1: NBC Sports Update, John stand John thinks so much appreciate

181
00:10:14,800 --> 00:10:17,559
Speaker 1: that features up, six town features up. If Michael was

182
00:10:17,640 --> 00:10:20,120
Speaker 1: a sports update, we can talk about tonight's big game.

183
00:10:20,760 --> 00:10:24,960
Speaker 1: Mike likes the Washington Capitals with Abbe, Joseph Cohen, and

184
00:10:25,040 --> 00:10:27,720
Speaker 1: I am rooting for the Pittsburgh Penguins. What we know

185
00:10:27,800 --> 00:10:29,920
Speaker 1: is there will be three giants on the ice. Vetchkin,

186
00:10:30,720 --> 00:10:35,720
Speaker 1: Crosby and Malkin be very cool and Brandon. But the

187
00:10:35,760 --> 00:10:39,600
Speaker 1: goal is very good. So anyway, tomorrow morning one was

188
00:10:39,840 --> 00:10:43,560
Speaker 1: will be very happy. It's fun. It's what we expected.

189
00:10:43,640 --> 00:10:46,439
Speaker 1: Six games, seven games out of for those of year worldwide.

190
00:10:46,440 --> 00:10:50,240
Speaker 1: Just the most interesting of hockey attorneys. The Stanley Cup

191
00:10:50,280 --> 00:10:54,360
Speaker 1: of Canada in the United States, features up, seven down,

192
00:10:54,360 --> 00:10:59,199
Speaker 1: features of fifty nights Stay with US Bloomberg Surveillance. The

193
00:10:59,320 --> 00:11:01,720
Speaker 1: Sports Up part has brought The Sports Report was brought

194
00:11:01,720 --> 00:11:04,240
Speaker 1: to you by land Rover Parcipiti. The Spring Sales event

195
00:11:04,320 --> 00:11:07,480
Speaker 1: is happening now. Visit land Rover Parcipi dot com. Landrover

196
00:11:07,960 --> 00:11:09,160
Speaker 1: Above and Beyond