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Speaker 1: P and L Podcast. I'm Pim Fox. Along with my

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Speaker 1: co host Lisa Abramowitz. Each day we bring you the

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Speaker 1: most important, noteworthy, and useful interviews for you and your money,

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Speaker 1: whether you at the grocery store or the trading floor.

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Speaker 1: Find the Bloomberg P and L Podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud

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Speaker 1: and at Bloomberg dot com. A rising rate environment, what's

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Speaker 1: that going to do to the real estate business to homeowners?

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Speaker 1: Let's find out from Mark Stefanski. He's the chief executive

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Speaker 1: of Third Federal Savings and Loan. Mark, thank you very

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Speaker 1: much for being with us. Just start us off by

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Speaker 1: telling people a little bit about a Third Federal Savings

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Speaker 1: and Loan. Okay, yeah, good morning, Thank you for having

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Speaker 1: me on the show. Uh yeah, My parents started Third

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Speaker 1: Federal back in n My dad frantically invented the home

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Speaker 1: mortgage business, and so I'm second generation. We do business

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Speaker 1: in twenty three states. Now we have stores in Ohio

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Speaker 1: and Florida. Uh. Yet we we do business in twenty

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Speaker 1: three states via the Internet and direct mail, and we

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Speaker 1: make more home mortgages than anyone else in the state

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Speaker 1: of Ohio. We mark. We were talking earlier with our

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg News colleague about some concerns among some congressmen that

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Speaker 1: there are insufficient opportunities to provide credit for small and

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Speaker 1: mid sized businesses. I'm wondering from your vantage point, you

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Speaker 1: have a really good view into Middle America, do you

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Speaker 1: feel that this is the case. Well, I do think

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Speaker 1: that the regulatory environment is hampering uh those kinds of

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Speaker 1: loans and that kind of expansion in the economy. Uh Uh, well,

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Speaker 1: it's just DoD frank in itself requires Uh let's say,

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Speaker 1: for a homeowner, if you own your own business, Uh,

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Speaker 1: the ability to repay is a huge, huge issue because

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Speaker 1: you have to show that you have uh W two's

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Speaker 1: and you have to have tax returns to show your

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Speaker 1: income to prove that you can pay for for the mortgages.

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Speaker 1: And that's ten percent of our business. And it's really

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Speaker 1: hard to get those people qualified because not everything is

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Speaker 1: always shown on in a W twoe form or on

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Speaker 1: their tax returns, and people who or their own businesses

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Speaker 1: are very very uh stuck right now and trying to

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Speaker 1: get home owns. And that's the middle class that's in

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Speaker 1: Middle America that everyone's been saying, well, it has to grow,

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Speaker 1: it has to grow, but specifically that Styman's the growth

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Speaker 1: in in that particular area. Have you been able to

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Speaker 1: I mean you're based in Ohio, as you said, I mean,

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Speaker 1: have you been able to make your concerns and these

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Speaker 1: challenges known to the officials that maybe could could affect

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Speaker 1: some kind of change. Well, uh, right now, No, it

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Speaker 1: doesn't matter because all those concerns fallen deaf ears. Uh yeah,

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Speaker 1: because that Frank has has taken over the industry. And

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Speaker 1: uh well, I think right now, I think everyone in

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Speaker 1: the industry, and I think the general public is more

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Speaker 1: optimistic given given the new president and the the push

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Speaker 1: for a more of a are less emphasis on regulation.

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Speaker 1: I think that that's going to be very helpful. But

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Speaker 1: but to to try to appeal to the regulatory body,

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Speaker 1: or to Congress, or to anybody, it's it's falls on

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Speaker 1: deaf or has fallen on deaf ears, especially in the

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Speaker 1: last eight years. Mark can you just sort of square

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Speaker 1: something for me, because there I just want to contrast

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Speaker 1: what you're talking about as far as credit conditions being

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Speaker 1: too tight with a lot of fears of excessive froth

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Speaker 1: in other parts of the credit market. You've seen that

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Speaker 1: in corporate credit and uh, just this week the Federal

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Speaker 1: Reserve eyeballed commercial real estate as a potential new area

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Speaker 1: of froth. Do you think that that this is an

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Speaker 1: accurate description of the sort of bigger credit markets or

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Speaker 1: do you think that these are just completely bifurcated markets

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Speaker 1: at this point? Well, I think that regulators, regulators, um,

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Speaker 1: they don't know what they don't know, so they're always

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Speaker 1: looking for the next next big thing to hit. And

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Speaker 1: and I can't honestly say that one the regulatory environment

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Speaker 1: has guessed, they've guessed right. It's usually they do a

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Speaker 1: very good job of cleaning up the mess after something's happened.

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Speaker 1: And uh, that's that's you know, that's what's happening with

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Speaker 1: Don Frank. Yet there's unintended consequences where you know, big

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Speaker 1: banks are basically the targets, but it's trickled down into

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Speaker 1: all the banking and all the mid science banks, all

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Speaker 1: the small banks. They're being choked. We are being choked

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Speaker 1: by the regulatory environment. Uh. And it's to the detriment

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Speaker 1: of the economy and detriment of people that once qualified

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Speaker 1: at the third Federal for example, in qualify because we

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Speaker 1: had a change our criteria based on the demand that

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Speaker 1: you're seeing. Is the economy operating at a two g

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Speaker 1: d p or is it operating at slower than current expectations.

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Speaker 1: I think it's a little slower um. However, I think

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Speaker 1: it is better. We were very very stagnant there for

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Speaker 1: a long time. I think there's optimism in the air.

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Speaker 1: I think the when the Fed moves on an interest rate,

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Speaker 1: whether it be up or down, that gets people excited.

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Speaker 1: And I think the anticipation of the Fed would like

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Speaker 1: to see the Reserve raised interest rates three times this year.

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Speaker 1: You know they could, and I don't think it's going

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Speaker 1: to have a dramatic effect then on the on the

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Speaker 1: market consumer. Really why is that? Well? I just think

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Speaker 1: that psychologically people right now are in a real good place.

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Speaker 1: People are very optimistic. So when when the raises rates

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Speaker 1: a little bit against people more excited that they might

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Speaker 1: go up further. So you get more volume coming in

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Speaker 1: but frankly, I don't see how those those changes in

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Speaker 1: interest rates going dramatically, you know, affected the consumer demand

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Speaker 1: for for homes. I just don't think that it's going

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Speaker 1: to move enough to put people that much out of

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Speaker 1: the market. And think about it, when most of us

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Speaker 1: were growing up, interest rates of seven eight nine percent

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Speaker 1: were norm and I've been around long enough, I saw

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Speaker 1: fifteen percent um that was horrific, and and now down

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Speaker 1: to four percent. People are complaining that the right so

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Speaker 1: might go up to four and a half or something

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Speaker 1: for a thirty or fixth rate mortgage. That's not so bad.

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Speaker 1: Although you know, some people have said that in the

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Speaker 1: in the wake of these incredibly low interest rates that

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Speaker 1: we've had since two thousand and eight, uh, that housing

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Speaker 1: prices and commercial real estate prices have gotten away from themselves,

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Speaker 1: and that as people, as the FED raises rates and

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Speaker 1: as borrowing costs rise, we're going to see a sort

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Speaker 1: of deflation of these bubbles. From your experience so far,

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Speaker 1: do you observe a slowdown in demand or anything that

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Speaker 1: suggests that there is a weakening in the housing market now?

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Speaker 1: In fact, I think it's quite the opposite, because I

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Speaker 1: think a lot of it, whether it be UM in

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Speaker 1: any sector of the economy tends to feel to be

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Speaker 1: feeled by UM UH perception UH and and consumer confidence.

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Speaker 1: So I think the consumer confidence right now is pretty

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Speaker 1: darn good, as good as it's been in the last

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Speaker 1: eight to ten years. And I think that's going to

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Speaker 1: go a long way. And of course we'll find out

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Speaker 1: in the next four years how good that optimism will

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Speaker 1: will hold. I want to thank you very much for

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Speaker 1: spending time with us. Mark Stefanski is the chief executive

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Speaker 1: of Third Federal Savings and Loan and you know, Lisa

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Speaker 1: that his parents, Ben and Jerome they started fifth third

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Speaker 1: Federal Savings alone. They started in nineteen thirty eight with

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Speaker 1: just fifty dollars in initial capital. We've heard a lot

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Speaker 1: of news overnight about President Trump's conversations with the Australian

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Speaker 1: and Mexican UH leaders, and some of the language has been,

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Speaker 1: uh sort of sort of incendiary, uh, to say the least.

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Speaker 1: I want to bring in Marty Shanker, who heads the

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Speaker 1: Washington bureau for Bloomberg News, and Marty, I want to

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Speaker 1: start with, UH, what your take is on what we've

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Speaker 1: heard overnight, is the US removing itself from its longest

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Speaker 1: standing allies or is this just bluster? Well it would

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Speaker 1: appear so. Um, but Donald Trump tweeted just a little

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Speaker 1: while ago, you know, not to be concerned about his

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Speaker 1: tough talks with our closest allies, and you know, uh,

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Speaker 1: And Tim O'Brien has an interesting viewpiece today in which,

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Speaker 1: you know, this notion of Trump having this grand plan

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Speaker 1: and all of us in journalism trying to figure out

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Speaker 1: just where everything fits. And he says, that's a fool's

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Speaker 1: Errand this is coming from his gut. It's spontaneous. He

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Speaker 1: feels he's doing the things he said he would do

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Speaker 1: once he got elected. And he feels the US has

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Speaker 1: been just too nice to the rest of the world,

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Speaker 1: friends and foe alike. So he's going to do things

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Speaker 1: his way. Hey, Marty of fair disclosure? How long have we?

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Speaker 1: I mean, I I gotta say everything I learned. I

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Speaker 1: think I learned that your knee at the Wall Street

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Speaker 1: Journal I'm not not and I was just twelve years old, right, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: well we were both in short pants. You know. It's

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Speaker 1: been a long trip, Yes, it has, um what in

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Speaker 1: your bones and your gut? All right? You talked about

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Speaker 1: the president's gut. You're a journalist through and through in

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Speaker 1: your gut, what what is going on and what needs

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Speaker 1: I mean, you can't do this on a regular basis

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Speaker 1: in twy not well, that's my question. In other words,

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Speaker 1: something's got to give. Well, look there there, it's been

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Speaker 1: like two weeks he's been president. He does he had

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Speaker 1: very few members of his cabinet in place. That's being

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Speaker 1: you know, we just saw Rex Tillerson at the State Department,

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Speaker 1: and you know he was he's basically keeping the council

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Speaker 1: of his closest adviser Steve Vannon, uh and others. Um.

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Speaker 1: And he hasn't had the benefit of, you know, real

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Speaker 1: time communication with people, with experienced people who are respected

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Speaker 1: in their fields. And I think he has not been

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Speaker 1: able to And he's always said he likes to hear

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Speaker 1: dissident opinions, and by all accounts he's a great listener

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Speaker 1: in private. And so I think that things can very

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Speaker 1: easily be more moderate nature going forward. But I do

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Speaker 1: think his impulsiveness will never go away. And um, for

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Speaker 1: those of us who say to ourselves, this is going

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Speaker 1: to slow down eventually, I think he got to guard

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Speaker 1: against that. I think that he that he has decided

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Speaker 1: this is the way he wants to communicate, and in fact,

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Speaker 1: this is the way he wants to express policy, and

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Speaker 1: he's going to continue to do that. What's the color

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Speaker 1: that you're hearing from the Republican establishment in Congress and beyond, Well,

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Speaker 1: they are steadfastly behind him. Uh, you know, I don't know.

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Speaker 1: I have stated privately that I think that his support

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Speaker 1: among the Republicans is razor thin um, and that he

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Speaker 1: it's a tenuous relationship, but it is a solid one

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Speaker 1: um for for now. I think the immigration uh proposals

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Speaker 1: that he had tested that relationship and the Republicans lined

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Speaker 1: up pretty solidly in favor of perhaps not the messaging

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Speaker 1: but the policy itself. So and and the majority of

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Speaker 1: Americans support it too. So I think the Republicans are

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Speaker 1: going to stand by their president until such time as

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Speaker 1: they themselves are threatened in terms of re election issues. Marty,

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Speaker 1: can you just give us a reality check? Some people

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Speaker 1: here the rhetoric of President Trump saying he's going to

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Speaker 1: invade uh Mexico in a conversation that the White House

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Speaker 1: now says was just a tough talk and a joke. Um,

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Speaker 1: at what point, just taking this to its extreme. At

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Speaker 1: what point does this lead to a real military altercation? Well,

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Speaker 1: I think we're pretty far away from that. And I

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Speaker 1: think Donald Trump got a stark example of what military

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Speaker 1: confrontation means with the first death under his watch. And uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, by all accounts, that is a very sobering

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Speaker 1: moment for anyone, and especially a president who ultimately is

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Speaker 1: responsible for all military activity. So I do think that

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Speaker 1: a lot of these conversations, when they're put in print

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Speaker 1: for in text, look a lot more vitriolic and our

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Speaker 1: cast without context, without the nuance of actual conversation, and

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Speaker 1: I think people tend to overreact to that. Let's turn

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Speaker 1: to our allies for just a second. Phone calls with

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Speaker 1: Prime Minister Turnbull in Australia. What's been your any details

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Speaker 1: you can shed anything you can No, I mean, we

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Speaker 1: have not been able to stand up that communication. You know,

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Speaker 1: that was broken by the Washington Post in great detail.

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Speaker 1: And you've got to assume someone who was privity to

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Speaker 1: those conversations decided to leak it because they were concerned

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Speaker 1: about it. Um. Just to be clear, it was a

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Speaker 1: conversation where President Trump allegedly said, uh that it was

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Speaker 1: the worst conversation that he had all day and basically

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Speaker 1: threatened him with the refugee agreement that they had, that

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Speaker 1: that the US previously came to with Australia, right and

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Speaker 1: and and the Australian leader Turnbull later said, look, you

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Speaker 1: know he was dismayed about the league and that the

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Speaker 1: actually be the ending of that conversation was courteous, but

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Speaker 1: be that as it may. Donald Trump came out and said,

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Speaker 1: you know, don't worry about my tough talk. He has

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Speaker 1: decided that he is keeping his promise. America comes first.

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Speaker 1: He was very upset about this immigration deal and he

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Speaker 1: was going to let turn Bill know, and he did.

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Speaker 1: Got to affect businesses, yes, right, I mean you know

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Speaker 1: you kind of I know, you stopped there on the

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Speaker 1: political side, but then you gotta turn your attention and say, okay,

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Speaker 1: so what are the effects here? Because you may be

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Speaker 1: able to run a government as you just described it,

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Speaker 1: but it's very hard to run a business. No, it's

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Speaker 1: totally skill. And that's why this meeting with CEOs tomorrow

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Speaker 1: is kind of in my task about it critically important. Well,

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Speaker 1: this is his business council. These the people he asked

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Speaker 1: to advise him. On policy and everybody from Jamie Diamond

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Speaker 1: to Jane Metti, and it's very it's going to be

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Speaker 1: very interesting. The tenor of what that meeting is going

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Speaker 1: to be. Will they come in and say, Mr President,

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Speaker 1: you're wrong on immigration, you're wrong on trade, you're wrong

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Speaker 1: on taxes, or are they going to sit with hands

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Speaker 1: folded and listen to Donald Trump say this is the

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Speaker 1: way it's going to be. Um And you know they're

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Speaker 1: from all parts of industry and banking and finance, so

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Speaker 1: it's going to be interesting if they even have a

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Speaker 1: unified message to give him. Well if if they do,

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Speaker 1: or even if they don't, we're gonna be covering it.

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Speaker 1: Marty Schanker, thank you very much, Senior Executive editor, Global

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Speaker 1: Economics and Government for Bloomberg News. P and L is

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Speaker 1: want a story of innovation of how to look at

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Speaker 1: the world today, makes sense of it, and then find

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Speaker 1: an investment uh that is somewhat reliable. I want to

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Speaker 1: bring in Paul more League, Global head of Market Economics

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Speaker 1: and Chief Economist for North America at BNP. Pariba, Paul,

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Speaker 1: where do you begin when you start with assessing your

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Speaker 1: economic outlook? Beginning with the facts has a pretty good

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Speaker 1: place to start. Where we've been and look at, you know,

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Speaker 1: basically where the surveys are telling us we might go next,

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Speaker 1: and what the settings of policy are. So you know

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Speaker 1: the surveys currently look for the US look pretty perky. Well,

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Speaker 1: let's look can we just like piece of the part

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Speaker 1: just because I know tomorrow we're going to get the

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Speaker 1: big payroll report number that will help people at least

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Speaker 1: the confirm or deny their trajectory projections. You know, compare

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Speaker 1: all that, but as an economist, just run through it.

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Speaker 1: For US, GDP is running at at what we got

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Speaker 1: a print at one point nine the last quarter on

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Speaker 1: what are we running at now well, you know the

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Speaker 1: Atlanta Fed he's saying for Q one day lateist GDP

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Speaker 1: now forecast he's three point four. Okay, so we're three okay,

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Speaker 1: So let's just say that Atlantage Fed GDP forecast three

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Speaker 1: point four for Q one for unemployment four points where

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Speaker 1: four point seven, and you know, we're pretty flat, maybe

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Speaker 1: a bit of a downward trajectory for the unemployment rate

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Speaker 1: going forward. Um, you know, labor participation rate moves or

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Speaker 1: just I think I think it's going to be pretty

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Speaker 1: flat more or less. But you know that if even

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Speaker 1: if you've got growth of just two, that's above potential

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Speaker 1: because the leather force is increasing by say half a

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Speaker 1: point per year, productivity in the year to Q four

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Speaker 1: was only one percent, so maybe productive potential is one

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Speaker 1: and a half. So if we're running at two or above,

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Speaker 1: unemployment should keep drifting down. Not very quickly because there

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Speaker 1: are far fewer people out there than they used to be,

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Speaker 1: but it should be drifting down, all right, and for

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Speaker 1: and for at least I know, you want to know

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Speaker 1: about inflation, because inflation is all about bonds. Yeah, I mean, well,

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Speaker 1: I was just coming cost here. Well, yeah, I mean

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Speaker 1: beyond that. I mean, but I'm trying to look into

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Speaker 1: the crystal ball. Nobody can predict the future. I'm wondering,

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Speaker 1: do you feel like you're less confident than you've ever

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Speaker 1: been before with your predictions or do you think that

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Speaker 1: people are overreacting to some of the macroeconomic and the

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Speaker 1: political backdrop and that there is a very clear road ahead.

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Speaker 1: I think people, you know, I think we've seen a

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Speaker 1: tendency for the markets just after the November elections to

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Speaker 1: one run off in one direction, and recently people are

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Speaker 1: kind of extrapolating things in the other direction, because I

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Speaker 1: think the technical term is they're walking back their estimates

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Speaker 1: right here, driving with the rear view mirror. Maybe, but

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Speaker 1: you know, it's difficult to come out with very firm

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Speaker 1: expectations about where we're going to go on trade and

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Speaker 1: physical and all these sort of things. So little spots

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Speaker 1: of information that you get a very valuable because it's

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Speaker 1: all you've got, but there's a tendency to extrapolate them.

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Speaker 1: I think. So. Do you think that people have over

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Speaker 1: inflated their expection expectations for inflation to your point, Pim, No,

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Speaker 1: I don't think so. I think, you know, if you

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Speaker 1: look globally where we're going on a inflation inflation is

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Speaker 1: going up, and you see that in the producer price

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Speaker 1: index in China, for example, You've seen it in Europe,

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Speaker 1: you see it here. We've got a unique labor costs

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Speaker 1: print just today of one point nine for the business sector,

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Speaker 1: and the core measure of inflation that the FED likes

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Speaker 1: is one point seven. So it's very likely to go up.

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Speaker 1: And you know, one thing I would say about the

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Speaker 1: Fed statement yesterday was that previously they said we believe

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Speaker 1: inflation will rise, yesterday they said inflation will rise. So

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Speaker 1: they sound more confident about their prediction of inflation. So

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Speaker 1: what does that What does that mean for investors? Does

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Speaker 1: that mean their bonds are are a bad better? Three

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Speaker 1: rate hikes one rate, one rate hike a quarter. Well,

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Speaker 1: I think you know, many people at the FED have

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Speaker 1: said two or three rate hikes this year, and I

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Speaker 1: think that's reasonable. The market is pricing about chance of march.

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Speaker 1: I think that's probably too low, but I think the

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Speaker 1: market will probably pricing a bigger chance, particularly we get

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Speaker 1: strong pay rolls tomorrow, that probability he will go up.

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Speaker 1: But I think the fade ideally would like to see

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Speaker 1: what exactly are the fiscal plans, what exactly will growth be,

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Speaker 1: And it won't get that to the second quarter. And

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Speaker 1: that's why I'm a bit skeptical about March. Given this backdrop,

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Speaker 1: what do you think is the one single best asset

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Speaker 1: class for this year. I'm not an asset allocator. I'm

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Speaker 1: just a humble economist. And so what's your biggest contrarian bet? Well,

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Speaker 1: I think you know, the biggest contrarian bet is that

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Speaker 1: we're going to see more more growth in the global

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Speaker 1: economy and probably more growth in the US economy over

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Speaker 1: the next two years than people expect. And I think

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Speaker 1: that's partly becost the momentum coming into this year is

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Speaker 1: pretty strong globally, and you know, US manufacturing looks very

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Speaker 1: good despite the strong dollar, and we yet to see

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Speaker 1: fiscal stimulus. Thank you very much for joining us. Poor

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Speaker 1: mortem rely look forward to having you in the future.

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Speaker 1: He is the head of Market Economics and the chief

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Speaker 1: economists for Baten Pete Party Bop. Matt Levine Bloomberg View columnist.

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Speaker 1: He wrote a really terrific column talking about how, first

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Speaker 1: of all, a lot of people dismissed President Trump's rhetoric

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Speaker 1: pre his election as simply talk and that he wouldn't

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Speaker 1: actually come through on that, and that now people are realizing, well,

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Speaker 1: perhaps they were mistaken. Um, first, can you just talk

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Speaker 1: about what you've observed about how the reaction has been

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Speaker 1: shockingly surprising when he's come through on a lot of

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Speaker 1: what he said. Yeah, there's like, there's two things going

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Speaker 1: on here right. One is that people listen to what

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Speaker 1: he said and thought he didn't mean it. And so

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Speaker 1: Trump talked about cracking down on trading immigration throughout the campaign.

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Speaker 1: Those were his focuses, and people sort of assumed he

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Speaker 1: would turn out to be a conventional Republican president and

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Speaker 1: interested in economic growth and tax cuts and deregulation and

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Speaker 1: things like that. And since the inauguration, it's been pretty

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Speaker 1: clear where his focus is, and it's exactly where he

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Speaker 1: said it was. So I think some of the business

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Speaker 1: leaders who were expecting a very conventional, uh presidency are

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Speaker 1: getting this very unconventional, anti trade, anti immigration presidency. Well,

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Speaker 1: but why wouldn't potentially this end up being just as

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Speaker 1: good for them as they thought if he does go

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Speaker 1: ahead and follows through with cutting regulations and cutting taxes.

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Speaker 1: I mean, why wouldn't this be a benefit. Well, one

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Speaker 1: thing is that a lot of business groups were not

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Speaker 1: um so happy about the trade stuff. You know that

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Speaker 1: we live in a global economy and a lot of

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Speaker 1: American businesses are multi national companies, and so they're going

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Speaker 1: to lose that by the correctown and trade. But the

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Speaker 1: other thing that's happening is that, you know, even if

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Speaker 1: eventually we come through on the deregulation and tax cuts

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Speaker 1: that businesses want, I think that they underestimated the risks

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Speaker 1: of just sort of the instability of the Trump presidency.

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Speaker 1: And you saw that with the executive order last weekend.

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Speaker 1: It's one thing to say we're gonna cut back on

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Speaker 1: or or even eliminate refugee programs, but what happened is

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Speaker 1: that they eliminated them while people with valid visas were

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Speaker 1: in the air. They told Green card holders that they

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Speaker 1: couldn't come back to the country, and then after a

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Speaker 1: sort of weekend of controversy, some of that was was

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Speaker 1: walked back. And so what you have is this totally

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Speaker 1: um sort of whimsical policy making process where real people

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Speaker 1: are getting caught up in these decision making, in these

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Speaker 1: decisions that don't really have much um UH process or

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Speaker 1: thought behind them. And I think what companies are realizing

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Speaker 1: is that that affects them to write like the rule

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Speaker 1: of law is pretty central to running a big multinational

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Speaker 1: company or running a big company in America, and you

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Speaker 1: need to have some predictability instability, And what they're seeing

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Speaker 1: here is an administration that is not really interested in

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Speaker 1: those norms and is willing to create a lot of instability. Well, Matt,

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Speaker 1: let me just push back a little bit here, because

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Speaker 1: if you read speeches that at the time candidate at

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Speaker 1: Trump was crossing the country, I believe, in fact, there

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Speaker 1: was one in Gettysburg, Pennsylvania where he laid out very

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Speaker 1: specifically what he planned to do if elected president. And

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Speaker 1: I would imagine, I mean, I want to know who

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Speaker 1: are these people that are so surprised? First of all,

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Speaker 1: because if you've I mean, he's not. It's not as

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Speaker 1: if he's deviated during the campaign from you know, the

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Speaker 1: set program of whether it is trade policy, whether it

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Speaker 1: is UH financial regulation, or you know variety of things. Um,

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Speaker 1: how do you respond to that? Well, first of all,

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Speaker 1: I would disagree that he laid anything out specifically or clearly, right,

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Speaker 1: I mean, you have every policy position he took He

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Speaker 1: still he took out every policy position at some point

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Speaker 1: during the campaign. You know, right now there's pushback from

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Speaker 1: the White House saying that the immigration order is not

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Speaker 1: a Muslim ban. But of course during the campaign he

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Speaker 1: put out a press what he's saying, we'll have a

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Speaker 1: Muslim ban. So it's not really clear what he said.

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Speaker 1: We're not in a court of law here. I mean,

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Speaker 1: this is not not you're not not parsing each things.

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Speaker 1: I'm just saying that he's set out pretty clearly what

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Speaker 1: his policies were going to look. I agree with that.

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Speaker 1: I think I think there is a constituency. And you know,

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Speaker 1: like the sort of leading light is Anthony Scaramucci, who's

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Speaker 1: a Trump advisor, who sort of gave interview saying he's

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Speaker 1: going to make smart trade deals and and not have

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Speaker 1: a Muslim ban, and and and do all these things

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Speaker 1: that that are more conventional Republican policies. And I think

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Speaker 1: that some of the people in that sort of New

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Speaker 1: York financial circle heard that. But the other thing that

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Speaker 1: I'm saying is that even even leaving like policy disagreements aside,

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Speaker 1: what I think people are surprised by is the just

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Speaker 1: sort of haphazard, uh nature of the Trump administration where

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Speaker 1: there's not a lot of respect for process or for

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Speaker 1: the rule of law, and that is what I think

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Speaker 1: is going to become more concerning. You know, you have

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Speaker 1: companies that say, look, you know, trade is trade policy

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Speaker 1: is one thing we can disagree substantively. But having a

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Speaker 1: president who is going to attack companies that disagree with

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Speaker 1: him politically, either by tweets or by uh, you know,

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Speaker 1: suggesting that the Justice Department hold up mergers of of

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Speaker 1: media companies he doesn't like, which is something he said

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Speaker 1: that a little history well, right, right, I mean then

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Speaker 1: you've got to be a little bit informed that this

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Speaker 1: is something that there are many images of of even

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Speaker 1: executives tangling with the US government. Right, well, but this

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Speaker 1: is but I think that that Matt, you raise a

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Speaker 1: point that cass Sunstine of Harvard made as well, which

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Speaker 1: is sort of there has to be the sense that

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Speaker 1: the rule of law is a consistent and reliable way

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Speaker 1: of an application of law, and if it's sort of

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Speaker 1: arbitrarily crafted or targeted to target specific companies or specific issues,

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Speaker 1: it doesn't work. Yeah, I mean, you you what you

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Speaker 1: what you want is a sort of predictable, uh environment

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Speaker 1: in which to operate, where you can kind of know

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Speaker 1: that your investments will be respected and paid off. And

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Speaker 1: I think that's what people are worried about right now.

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Speaker 1: Great point and great column. Thank you very much, Matt Levine.

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Speaker 1: Look forward to having you more in the future. He

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00:27:48,680 --> 00:27:51,520
Speaker 1: is a columnist for Bloomberg View. You can follow him

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00:27:51,560 --> 00:27:56,080
Speaker 1: on Twitter at Matt underscore Levine. His columns stability is

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00:27:56,080 --> 00:28:05,520
Speaker 1: good for business. Trump's whims threaten it. Thanks for listening

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00:28:05,520 --> 00:28:08,520
Speaker 1: to the Bloomberg P and L podcast. You can subscribe

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Speaker 1: and listen to interviews at iTunes, SoundCloud, or whatever podcast

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Speaker 1: Twitter at pim Fox. I'm out there on Twitter at

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Speaker 1: Lisa Abramo. It's one before the podcast. You can always

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