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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along
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Speaker 3: So here's the.
Speaker 2: Lass this morning. President Trump's policy stoken concerns about the
Speaker 2: dollars dominance each four percent of Cornell University. Righting the
Speaker 2: dollars de throning is unlikely, Luckily for the United States
Speaker 2: and unfortunately for the dollars detractors, there appears to be
Speaker 2: no competitor strong enough. Each war joins us now for more.
Speaker 2: Each one. Welcome back to the program sir. It's always
Speaker 2: good to get your thoughts on Bloomberg Surveillance. Let's take
Speaker 2: it from the top. What's the difference between diversification and
Speaker 2: de dollarization?
Speaker 4: So the two could very well be related John, what
Speaker 4: is the reality the world faces is that if you're
Speaker 4: holding you know, more than fifty seven percent of your assets,
Speaker 4: that is reserves in one currency or one asset class,
Speaker 4: you really should be diversifying, which is something that the
Speaker 4: world has been trying to do for a long time.
Speaker 4: So there are very good reasons to step away from
Speaker 4: the dollar now. The issue, of course, is that the
Speaker 4: dollar is very important, not just as a reserve currency,
Speaker 4: but as a payment currency, as a funding currency, and
Speaker 4: in all of those respects. The reality is that there
Speaker 4: simply isn't another currency that can out muscle the dollar. Certainly,
Speaker 4: a world in which there were multiple currencies that were
Speaker 4: competing on an even basis might be a more efficient world.
Speaker 4: It could create more discipline and more incentives or discipline
Speaker 4: from the issuers of those currencies. But that's not quite
Speaker 4: the world we live in right now, and the weaknesses
Speaker 4: of the other currencies are still keeping the dollar in
Speaker 4: pretty good shape.
Speaker 2: Let's talk about some of those weaknesses. It feels like
Speaker 2: for money that China is just a Nonstanzer because of
Speaker 2: the lack of capital mobility. What about the Europeans is Ishua,
Speaker 2: where do they fit in?
Speaker 4: That would be a very logical alternative to the dollar,
Speaker 4: and in fact, when the Euro was created in two thousand,
Speaker 4: there was an upsurge of excitement about an alternative to
Speaker 4: the dollar finally, and the euro did seem ready to
Speaker 4: fulfill those promises.
Speaker 5: In the first seven.
Speaker 4: To eight years after its creation, the share of the
Speaker 4: Euro in foreign exchange reserves, for instance, went up by
Speaker 4: about eight percentage points from about twenty to twenty eight
Speaker 4: percentage twenty eight percent, and there was a sense that
Speaker 4: the euro was an unstoppable linear paths to taking over
Speaker 4: from the dollar.
Speaker 5: But then it all ended.
Speaker 4: The global financial crisis and the Eurozone debt crisis revealed
Speaker 4: that Europe does not quite have all the elements of
Speaker 4: a monitory union. Yes, there is monitor union, but the
Speaker 4: true banking union, the fiscal union, and other parts of
Speaker 4: economic union did not really hold together. So you think
Speaker 4: about the core part of the Eurozone, you know, countries
Speaker 4: like Germany, Austria and the Netherlands and Swan that's a
Speaker 4: much smaller share of the overall Eurozone bond market, and
Speaker 4: even those core countries and not exactly doing very well
Speaker 4: right now. Germany is struggling, for instance, so it doesn't
Speaker 4: look like Europe is ready to step up and take
Speaker 4: on the mantle. And certainly since two thousand and eight,
Speaker 4: the euro has done very poorly. It's shared as a
Speaker 4: payment currency, it's shares a reserve currency, have all fallen
Speaker 4: back to about the pre Euro levels.
Speaker 3: This is the institutional weakness that you're talking about that
Speaker 3: leads the dollar to remain on a much longer leash
Speaker 3: than any currency should rightfully have.
Speaker 4: That's your words.
Speaker 3: At the same time, the dollar is still in a
Speaker 3: leash and Steve England are a Standard Chartered said overnight
Speaker 3: that a US dollar and race crunch could emerge if
Speaker 3: the fiscal bill steepens the debt path without boosting growth.
Speaker 3: How much do you see that as a possibility, say
Speaker 3: in twenty twenty six or twenty twenty seven.
Speaker 4: You know, by all logically so the dollars should not
Speaker 4: be where it is. We're seeing that macroeconomic policies in
Speaker 4: the US, especially the physical deficit and debt levels, do
Speaker 4: not show any real discipline by US policymakers. The key
Speaker 4: elements of the institutional framework that are crucial to underpinning
Speaker 4: the dollar's dominance, you know, the independence of the central bank,
Speaker 4: the FED the system of checks and balances, the rule
Speaker 4: of law. All of these have certainly taken a pretty
Speaker 4: strong beating. But the reality is that if you put
Speaker 4: the whole package together, the institutions, but also financial market
Speaker 4: depth and size, and the dynamism of the US economy,
Speaker 4: even if the US does very poorly in each of
Speaker 4: these dimensions in a relative sense, it's still doing better
Speaker 4: than the rest of the world. And that's a difficulty.
Speaker 4: But having said that, we have certainly seen a fall
Speaker 4: off in the dollar's share of global asset flows and
Speaker 4: so on in the last four to five months. But
Speaker 4: it's worth keeping in mind that from September of twenty
Speaker 4: twenty four to about January of twenty twenty four, just
Speaker 4: still about inauguration day for the new president, the dollar
Speaker 4: on a trade weighted basis rose by about ten percent,
Speaker 4: possibly making it quite overvalued. And then it's fallen back
Speaker 4: by about ten percent to about where it was in
Speaker 4: September twenty twenty four. So if you want to tell
Speaker 4: a very negative story about the dollar, you start in January.
Speaker 4: If you want to tell a different story about the dollar,
Speaker 4: that things have changed but not really in a fundamental sense,
Speaker 4: you go back to September twenty twenty four, and not
Speaker 4: that much has changed.
Speaker 6: We know the president hates trade deficits. Do you think
Speaker 6: any of this is strategic to boost US exports?
Speaker 4: That's a very interesting question. We've heard very mixed messages
Speaker 4: from the administration about whether they want a weaker dollar
Speaker 4: in the short run and a long stronger dollar in
Speaker 4: the long run. Trump certainly has spoken about how he
Speaker 4: wants a dollar to remain the dominant currency, but at
Speaker 4: the same time, in many of the issues that we've
Speaker 4: had with other countries, including countries that the US is
Speaker 4: running a t that the US is running a trade
Speaker 4: surplus with the Trump administrations argue that many of those
Speaker 4: countries are manipulating their currencies to keep them weak, suggesting
Speaker 4: that the US would prefer that those currencies be stronger
Speaker 4: and the dollar be weaker. That mixed messaging certainly should
Speaker 4: be hurting the currency, and it probably is, but it
Speaker 4: doesn't seem to be a fundamental aspect of policy that
Speaker 4: they're trying to weaken the dollar through the messaging, but
Speaker 4: certainly the policies they're putting in place. You know, the
Speaker 4: increased likelihood of the US recession later this year because
Speaker 4: of all the tariff troubles, the increasing fiscal deficit levels,
Speaker 4: all of those are certainly going to weaken the dollar.
Speaker 2: I have no doubt this is going to be an
Speaker 2: ongoing conversation, particularly with you, sir, each four percent there
Speaker 2: of Cornow University joining us now the Republican Congressman French Shell,
Speaker 2: Arkansas Congressman Hill, welcome back to the program, sir. Let's
Speaker 2: get into this. I want to understand so here on
Speaker 2: Will Street. As you know, there's a big sense of
Speaker 2: self importance when you put this bill together. How much
Speaker 2: attention do you pay to the bond market, fixed income on
Speaker 2: what's happening on Will Street?
Speaker 5: Well, Jonathan, great to be with you.
Speaker 1: Look, Republicans in the House and Senate have collaborated for
Speaker 1: over a year on the components of this bill, and
Speaker 1: certainly very intensely since the election. We wanted to deliver
Speaker 1: on President Trump's campaign promises. First, redeploy federal spending, cut
Speaker 1: out some of the federal spending but we don't particularly
Speaker 1: agree with, and reinvest in the border and reinvest in defense.
Speaker 1: And secondly, a block a twenty two percent tax increase
Speaker 1: on families by extending the tax cuts and Jobs Act.
Speaker 1: Those were the fundamental components, and we did and believe
Speaker 1: that between the Trump regulatory policies and growth policies and
Speaker 1: tax policies, that we would get some acceleration and economic
Speaker 1: growth from the provisions in.
Speaker 5: The tax code. But we also focused on cutting spending.
Speaker 1: And in the House bill, we cut one point five
Speaker 1: trillion dollars in spending over the next ten years.
Speaker 6: Congressman, there's a handful of vocal Cenaters already who want
Speaker 6: major changes to this bill. Is it going to look
Speaker 6: remotely like anything you sent over to the Senate.
Speaker 1: Well, I'm not going to make predictions about what will
Speaker 1: happen in the Senate. We legislate every single day in
Speaker 1: the House. They legislate periodically over in the Senate, and
Speaker 1: so when they do, they have a lot of concentrated
Speaker 1: effort on it. They have to work by consensus in
Speaker 1: the two parties there, even more so than we do
Speaker 1: in the House.
Speaker 5: So I don't want to predict that.
Speaker 1: But look, I want to be clear that John Thune
Speaker 1: and Mike Johnson and President Trump have collaborated on the
Speaker 1: background and details of these bills. And that's why, based
Speaker 1: on what I've witnessed in the House the last five months.
Speaker 5: I want to.
Speaker 1: Echo Speaker Mike Johnson's point, which is this is a
Speaker 1: delicate dance and a delicate balance, and so the Senate
Speaker 1: has to consider any major changes very very carefully.
Speaker 6: I think, can a bill be big or can it
Speaker 6: be beautiful or can.
Speaker 3: It be both?
Speaker 1: Well, when you've got President Trump, you've got both at
Speaker 1: all times. So I think it can be significant in
Speaker 1: its policy direction and change, as well as very beneficial
Speaker 1: to American families and the growth of the American economy.
Speaker 5: And I think.
Speaker 1: That's delineated in the in the scope of the bill
Speaker 1: that we passed in the House.
Speaker 3: Congressman of course Emory was talking and referencing what Elon
Speaker 3: Musk was talking about as he seemed to distance himself,
Speaker 3: saying he's a bit disappointed that the current iteration of
Speaker 3: the bill does increase the deficit, and as he said,
Speaker 3: it seems to undermine some of the progress made by
Speaker 3: efforts in Doge. Do you agree, does it concern that
Speaker 3: there is this increase in the deficit with out real
Speaker 3: offsets for the longer term.
Speaker 1: Well, I think the work by Doze over the first
Speaker 1: fund months of them and has done a lot to
Speaker 1: uncover productivity loss, needs for reform and full time equivalent positions,
Speaker 1: how to reform IT systems make them more reliable, reduced waste,
Speaker 1: fraud and abuse. All those things found by Doze are helpful,
Speaker 1: and I think they informed Chairman Tom Cole, the chairman
Speaker 1: of the House Appropriations Committee, and his colleagues exactly how.
Speaker 5: To better focus f y twenty six spending.
Speaker 1: When we get back into session next week, you'll see
Speaker 1: the hearings in the House Appropriations Committee start quickly, and
Speaker 1: I think that's where the Doge work will be best
Speaker 1: reflected is in looking at f y twenty six.
Speaker 3: Do you think that the current iteration of the bill
Speaker 3: does enough to reduce growth to offset some of the
Speaker 3: constraints that you're seeing with tariffs, with the idea that
Speaker 3: even Walmart in your home state in Ventonville is being
Speaker 3: told to eat it and you're seeing profit margins contract
Speaker 3: or expectations for it. If you have both the deficit
Speaker 3: increasing and you have the potential for companies having to
Speaker 3: cut back, does that worry you well?
Speaker 1: As I've said on your show before, I remain concerned
Speaker 1: about the uncertainty in the tariff strategy. I think we've
Speaker 1: got regulatory reform going absolutely in the right direction. I
Speaker 1: believe that the tax preservation of no cuts for households
Speaker 1: and tax incentives for business are good in the bill,
Speaker 1: including major tax incentives to bring a new plant and
Speaker 1: facilities to the United States for construction.
Speaker 5: But we need to make sure we have clarity on
Speaker 5: the tariff issue. And you're right.
Speaker 1: Doug McMillan, the CEO of Walmart, met with President Trump
Speaker 1: made it very clear to him how quickly he believes
Speaker 1: that tariff clarity.
Speaker 5: Needs to be found or it's going to.
Speaker 1: Impact store shelves and store prices.
Speaker 5: Across the country.
Speaker 1: And I think you've seen that reflected in the Macy's
Speaker 1: report that you had just a few minutes ago.
Speaker 6: Did you get a send speaking to a Walmart congressman
Speaker 6: that we will get clarity by July.
Speaker 1: Ninth, Well, I believe that what I've heard from business,
Speaker 1: Dillard's Department store here at Little Rock, Arkansas, one of
Speaker 1: the biggest retailers in the South, the Walmart headquartered in Bentonville, Arkansas,
Speaker 1: as well as a number of small manufacturers here in
Speaker 1: the state and large, that they want clarity soon, meaning
Speaker 1: may June early July, because that's going to really impact
Speaker 1: plan shipments, plan purchases, and what's going to be on
Speaker 1: the shelves for back to school and this fall. So
Speaker 1: it's very important, particularly in the retailing industry, other industries
Speaker 1: and manufacturing. Maybe there's a little bit more leeway based
Speaker 1: on inventories that's been built over the inventory that's been
Speaker 1: built over the first few months of this year.
Speaker 2: In Congressman, just before you go, I have a he
Speaker 2: might want to weigh in on this, the anthropic CEO
Speaker 2: and what he had to say to Axios the AI
Speaker 2: could wipe out half of all entry level white college jobs.
Speaker 2: We sleep walking into a bit of a disaster.
Speaker 1: Well. I served last year on the Speaker Johnson's bipartisan
Speaker 1: Full House AI task Force. We had hearings all year
Speaker 1: from every segment and walk of life, from education to
Speaker 1: healthcare to service businesses, and we came up with a
Speaker 1: series of principles, and one is you have to keep
Speaker 1: a human in the loop in applying AI, either internally
Speaker 1: or externally in a business application or a government application.
Speaker 1: And if you use it as a tool, I think
Speaker 1: it's going to be a very big productivity.
Speaker 5: Tool to boost economic output.
Speaker 1: And from what we heard in testimony, I didn't hear
Speaker 1: the armageddon approach in the short run because it's such
Speaker 1: a immer urging, early stage tool.
Speaker 5: It's accelerating rapidly.
Speaker 1: But I think if we keep a human in the loop,
Speaker 1: as we apply it internal and externally in our businesses
Speaker 1: and then government, that we're going to continue to have
Speaker 1: employees that use it effectively and that it's not going
Speaker 1: to be as catastrophic in the short run, particularly as
Speaker 1: that predictions that prediction.
Speaker 2: We hope you write Congressman Hell, it's going to see
Speaker 2: you as always, Congressman Franchl on the LESIS needs the
Speaker 2: smaller invest us bracing front video results south to the closing.
Speaker 2: Now as China Rex spoke cubs, why on the chip
Speaker 2: maker joining us not to look ahead? Mandev Singh of
Speaker 2: Flimperg Intelligence Mandate, Welcome to the program, sir. What are
Speaker 2: you focused on? Lights of the Southternoon, Well, we know.
Speaker 7: That China is the focus, but for me, growth margin
Speaker 7: is where we can determine. You know, in video's pricing
Speaker 7: power and right now everyone is fixated on power supply.
Speaker 7: Six months back, you know, everyone was fixated on supply
Speaker 7: of GPUs. I feel that concern has alleviated and the
Speaker 7: focus is more on power and so what I want
Speaker 7: to know is how does that affect Nvidia's gross martin
Speaker 7: in terms of supply concerns abating And look, the geopolitical
Speaker 7: tensions are still there. They may have to remove some
Speaker 7: of their supply chains, but in the end, it comes
Speaker 7: down to growth smartin because that's the biggest determinant of
Speaker 7: Nvidia's free cash flow.
Speaker 3: There's also a question, Mandy, but about the hyperscalers that
Speaker 3: have come under some unique pressures, and thinking of Google
Speaker 3: or Alphabet the parent company of Google, how much do
Speaker 3: you expect some of these companies to increasingly become competitors,
Speaker 3: not just customers, and for that to be part of
Speaker 3: the narrative mix stemming from earnings today.
Speaker 5: Absolutely.
Speaker 7: I mean, look, we know Nvidia's revenue is concentrated with
Speaker 7: the five big hyperscalers, and we also know OpenAI is
Speaker 7: trying to branch out on its own comes to building
Speaker 7: its data centers, et cetera. So from that perspective, you
Speaker 7: know the commodification of llams. So if Gemini is catching
Speaker 7: up to open Ai, that's bad news for Nvidia. And
Speaker 7: look for Nvidia. Clearly they want the llams to standardize
Speaker 7: on their chips, but there are a lot of alternatives emerging,
Speaker 7: especially in China. And if you know, Chinese aren't getting
Speaker 7: the supply of GPUs and they're still able to train
Speaker 7: the models. They are setting up a precedent that you
Speaker 7: can do influencing without Nvidia GPUs, and that is what
Speaker 7: will determine in this AI infrastructure supercycle. What sort of
Speaker 7: market share will Nvidia have two years from now or
Speaker 7: five years from now.
Speaker 2: The stock is positive in the pre market by zero
Speaker 2: point six percent, mandep appreciate your time. Manday's sing there
Speaker 2: a bloomberg and salentence to build on the conversation. Joining
Speaker 2: us now Frankly of HSPAC, who has a whole writing
Speaker 2: on the stock and a one hundred and twenty dollars
Speaker 2: price target on Nvidia. Frank welcome to the program. I
Speaker 2: just want to build on some of the conversation we've
Speaker 2: already had so far this morning and understand from your
Speaker 2: perspective why this won't be the Beaten Rays quarter that
Speaker 2: maybe some people got used to in years gone by.
Speaker 8: Yeah, I think if you look at the Beaten Rays,
Speaker 8: we haven't really seen that for the last couple of
Speaker 8: quarters in Video since the second half last year, so
Speaker 8: I think what you're seeing is that. And one of
Speaker 8: the reasons I think we see is that there's still
Speaker 8: some ongoing challenges they're facing this year which they didn't
Speaker 8: face last year. You know, Number one, you had, you know,
Speaker 8: the supply chain is still having some ongoing issues, especially
Speaker 8: on the downstream side and the way they ramp their
Speaker 8: their NVL rack architecture. We've had the China ban come
Speaker 8: through earlier as well, and also I think the GtC
Speaker 8: road map that was launched it wasn't as exciting as
Speaker 8: people had hoped. We're not seeing a huge spec migration
Speaker 8: that will drive this incredible pricing power going forward. So
Speaker 8: these I think were the headwinds that I think you're
Speaker 8: in Video is facing in the first half of the year.
Speaker 8: And I think as you go into earnings, I think
Speaker 8: there will be a major surprise. I think the market
Speaker 8: has gotten used to that already. Expectations for earning for
Speaker 8: the revenue has come down over the last three months,
Speaker 8: so I don't think there will be a big disappointment either.
Speaker 8: So I think the focus there will be probably as
Speaker 8: we go into twenty twenty six, there's a.
Speaker 3: Question, frank about the supply side of this story with
Speaker 3: respect to supply chains and other issues, just creating enough
Speaker 3: chips to really meet demand. And then there's a question
Speaker 3: around the demand and how much is coming from China
Speaker 3: versus the Middle East to versus hyperscalers. Which side of
Speaker 3: the equation do you think is going to be the
Speaker 3: more important one this earning season.
Speaker 8: I think the focus will be, you know, the narrative
Speaker 8: someone has actually changed quite a bit, especially after the
Speaker 8: I think the Middle East AI deal, because that represents
Speaker 8: a new greenfield market opportunity for Nvidia that you know,
Speaker 8: over the long run, could perhaps double the revenue from
Speaker 8: where we are today. So I think that has been
Speaker 8: probably the biggest change, the big reason why the stock
Speaker 8: has rebounded off the recent lows. However, I think, you know,
Speaker 8: to get confirmation that this demand, this from the moist
Speaker 8: will materialize, we're going to have to see between now
Speaker 8: and in the year whether the supply chain expectations for
Speaker 8: next year does continue to reverse. Because since the beginning
Speaker 8: of the year, what we've seen is that the capacity
Speaker 8: on their chip side allocation has been coming down, so
Speaker 8: this is trend starts to reverse as we get into
Speaker 8: next year, that will be seen as a very important indicator.
Speaker 8: We may not see that for another couple of months,
Speaker 8: but that will be something I think is really critical
Speaker 8: because that establishes your baseline for twenty twenty six that
Speaker 8: it can grow again. But I think prior to this narrative,
Speaker 8: it was just really the hyperscalar. Capex will slow and
Speaker 8: they will also see more of a focus on their
Speaker 8: own chip, the ACIK chip, and that's why we see
Speaker 8: Broadcom seeing a very strong growth for next year as well.
Speaker 6: Frank, it is a pretty remarkable moment in a photo
Speaker 6: op when you have Jensen Wang basically standing in between
Speaker 6: President Trump and check Muhammad Benzaia and Abu Dhabi when
Speaker 6: they signed this AI partnership. But whether you put all
Speaker 6: of these deals together across the Gulf, is it enough
Speaker 6: of an offset for what's happening with China?
Speaker 8: I think right now the narrative clearly is there to
Speaker 8: suggest that it is. I mean, they've talked about six
Speaker 8: hundred gigawads that potentially over the next ten years or
Speaker 8: so could double their revenue to two hundred billion. But
Speaker 8: you know that's the narrative. Whether it materializes or not,
Speaker 8: we'll have to see. I think again, as we see
Speaker 8: next year that a supply chain start to see upper revisions.
Speaker 8: We've been in a downward revision since beginning of the year.
Speaker 8: Now does that start reversing course, I think that will
Speaker 8: be important thing to see because that's going to be
Speaker 8: the most I think a very important driver for Nvidia
Speaker 8: next year. The hyperscalar will slow down. I think they
Speaker 8: know that, and I think they've been preparing for that,
Speaker 8: which is why I think at Computex Jensen also talked about,
Speaker 8: you know, willing to sell the networking chips so he
Speaker 8: doesn't have to buy the hyper skirits don't have to
Speaker 8: buy the complete solution from him. So I think he's
Speaker 8: become more open minded about selling other chips besides the
Speaker 8: entire solution.
Speaker 2: Frank, just to wrap it up, we'd love a thought
Speaker 2: from you on the man himself, the leadership Jensen, Tim
Speaker 2: Kirk increasingly out in the cold at the moment with
Speaker 2: regards to the relationship with the President of the United States.
Speaker 2: What does Jensen doing right?
Speaker 8: Yeah, I think it's an interesting one because he Jensen
Speaker 8: clearly has expressed desire to continue to sell into China.
Speaker 8: He's been very vocal about it. In fact, I think,
Speaker 8: you know, they are working on another chip that they
Speaker 8: plan to sell into China that can, I guess, get
Speaker 8: around some of the restrictions we're seeing today. But on
Speaker 8: the other hand, I think he's also quite supportive of
Speaker 8: the losing of the AI diffusion. You know, the deal
Speaker 8: in the sat Arabia I think was a good start.
Speaker 8: So I think he's also been very supportive and appreciative
Speaker 8: of the administration about going in that direction.
Speaker 2: Frank, given his pursuit of China though, and China as
Speaker 2: a major customer, do you see tension down the road
Speaker 2: between the two individuals.
Speaker 8: I think, you know, what video has proven to be
Speaker 8: is very adaptable. So they've been, you know, every time
Speaker 8: there's been a restriction and Vidia has advited and followed it,
Speaker 8: they just come up with another chip that basically falls
Speaker 8: below the criteria benchmark. And so I think he will
Speaker 8: continue to do that, but again in a fashion that
Speaker 8: I think is pretty much well telegraphed. So I don't
Speaker 8: see it as being a negative source attention. I think,
Speaker 8: you know, he still doesn't want to give him an
Speaker 8: Chinel market. But at the same time, I think he's
Speaker 8: also looking to follow whatever the restrictions are placed, and
Speaker 8: he'll find ways to meet them.
Speaker 2: So got it, Hey, frank, I appreciate your time. Frankly
Speaker 2: the of HSVAC on Nvidio earnings from them a little
Speaker 2: bit later this afternoon. This is the Bloomberg Sevenants podcast,
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