WEBVTT - Looking Ahead To Jobs Day 0:00:00.800 --> 0:00:04.040 Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney alongside 0:00:04.040 --> 0:00:06.920 my co host Matt Miller. Every business day, we bring 0:00:06.960 --> 0:00:11.520 you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 0:00:11.560 --> 0:00:15.520 with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast 0:00:15.600 --> 0:00:18.479 on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 0:00:18.480 --> 0:00:23.040 at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Tomorrow is Jobs Day 0:00:23.079 --> 0:00:25.280 and important jobs Day, of course, as we continue to 0:00:25.320 --> 0:00:29.280 see this US economy trying to reopen here uh in 0:00:29.320 --> 0:00:32.560 the face of the delta variant, and of course the 0:00:32.640 --> 0:00:36.400 job situations country, the labor market, given that the economy 0:00:36.440 --> 0:00:39.320 is seventy consumer spending, so it's important to get folks 0:00:39.320 --> 0:00:41.760 back to work and earning a good way. Let's get 0:00:41.760 --> 0:00:44.400 a preview of what we might find tomorrow. David Riley, 0:00:44.440 --> 0:00:48.479 chief investment strategist at Blue Bay Asset Management. David, what 0:00:48.720 --> 0:00:51.440 do you expect to see tomorrow from this job's report 0:00:51.520 --> 0:00:53.320 and kind of what are the key issues you're gonna 0:00:53.320 --> 0:00:58.680 be focusing on. Yeah, high cool Um, You're absolutely right 0:00:58.760 --> 0:01:03.120 that it is a key report also because it's the 0:01:03.560 --> 0:01:06.000 ultimably the most important data point that we're going to 0:01:06.120 --> 0:01:11.840 have before Um, the next FOMC meeting on the of 0:01:12.400 --> 0:01:16.039 UM September, and I think if we get a reasonable, 0:01:16.520 --> 0:01:19.640 you know number sort of upward surprise, you know, eight 0:01:19.680 --> 0:01:23.080 hundred thousand plus payroll gain, I think that actually puts 0:01:23.120 --> 0:01:27.560 the September FED meeting in play in terms of a 0:01:27.600 --> 0:01:31.720 potential announcement for Queie tapering. If if if it comes 0:01:31.720 --> 0:01:34.679 in much lower, you know, six hundred thousand or so, UM, 0:01:34.840 --> 0:01:37.720 I think there will really be some disappointment. I think 0:01:37.720 --> 0:01:40.920 the Fed will sort of um want to see some 0:01:41.280 --> 0:01:43.080 kind of more evidence and sort of sit on their 0:01:43.080 --> 0:01:46.200 hands for a little bit longer until November. So I 0:01:46.240 --> 0:01:49.600 think it's actually one of those reports where from a 0:01:49.720 --> 0:01:52.400 market point of view, it's quite kind of a metric. 0:01:52.480 --> 0:01:54.720 I think the market is kind of inclined to think 0:01:54.720 --> 0:01:57.000 that it might be a little bit disappointing. The August 0:01:57.040 --> 0:02:01.040 number often comes in a little bit lower than expectations 0:02:01.080 --> 0:02:04.080 in previous years. But if he actually comes in, you know, 0:02:04.200 --> 0:02:07.320 eight hundred thousand plus, then then then I think we'll 0:02:07.320 --> 0:02:09.359 see a bit of volatility in the rates market and 0:02:09.440 --> 0:02:11.600 market more more generally, because because I say, I think 0:02:11.600 --> 0:02:15.440 it put September FED meeting right into play. David I 0:02:15.440 --> 0:02:18.760 can understand, um, why they would be looking at those 0:02:18.800 --> 0:02:23.400 two um boundaries. On the other hand, and you have 0:02:23.680 --> 0:02:27.440 a ton of experience as an economist in you know, 0:02:27.560 --> 0:02:31.200 previous roles at ubs and that I think that that 0:02:31.280 --> 0:02:34.240 was your degree in economics as well. You must know 0:02:34.360 --> 0:02:38.160 that this number isn't really exact, right, I mean the 0:02:38.200 --> 0:02:40.200 margin of error. I've heard some people say it could 0:02:40.200 --> 0:02:45.440 be three to two to three hundred thousand. Yeah, absolutely right, 0:02:45.639 --> 0:02:50.880 And um, we know that it is subject to significant revisions, 0:02:50.919 --> 0:02:52.720 which which is why it makes sense to try and 0:02:52.760 --> 0:02:57.119 track a sort of um, you know, three months moving average. 0:02:57.400 --> 0:03:00.200 What we have been seeing over recent months is the 0:03:00.560 --> 0:03:04.880 you know, the trend has been one of increasing job gains, 0:03:05.000 --> 0:03:08.359 and you know, I think j Power Jackson Hole kind 0:03:08.360 --> 0:03:12.160 of expressed his confidence in the recovery of the labor 0:03:12.200 --> 0:03:15.680 market in some respects there really you know, I think 0:03:15.720 --> 0:03:19.120 what would be a really interesting numbers is, well, obviously 0:03:19.120 --> 0:03:23.359 we get into September and you know, whether schools are 0:03:23.360 --> 0:03:25.960 fully reopening, because that will have an impact in terms 0:03:26.040 --> 0:03:31.400 of labor supply, labor participation, the participation of a lot 0:03:31.440 --> 0:03:34.720 of um, you know, parents is still actually somewhat lower 0:03:34.720 --> 0:03:38.280 than it than it was um pre pandemic and so 0:03:39.080 --> 0:03:41.600 you know, the reopening of schools is it's kind of 0:03:41.600 --> 0:03:44.560 a key issue, and that actually ties us back into 0:03:44.760 --> 0:03:47.040 two tomorrow's number as well, because one of the sources 0:03:47.040 --> 0:03:52.680 of uncertainty is the counting of um uh, you know, 0:03:52.760 --> 0:03:56.720 teachers being hired for for for the new school school year. 0:03:56.880 --> 0:03:59.520 So you know that that creates some some some noise 0:03:59.560 --> 0:04:02.840 I think to some extent within within within the data. 0:04:03.000 --> 0:04:05.080 But you know, I think, as I say, you know, 0:04:05.280 --> 0:04:07.640 we were kind of the clock has been set. I 0:04:07.640 --> 0:04:12.080 think now for an announcement around taper, Pal said, you 0:04:12.080 --> 0:04:15.520 know they're gonna start tapering this year in all likelihoods um, 0:04:15.600 --> 0:04:17.120 and so I think that's going to make each of 0:04:17.120 --> 0:04:20.600 these data points increasingly um you know, important from a 0:04:20.680 --> 0:04:24.800 market perspective. All right, David, assuming that's all true, we 0:04:24.839 --> 0:04:27.680 do get some more color about tapering perhaps later in 0:04:27.680 --> 0:04:31.400 the year. How are you allocating your capital as as 0:04:31.440 --> 0:04:34.559 you think about generating returns? Again, we've had a huge 0:04:35.200 --> 0:04:37.440 run up here in the SMP so far this year. 0:04:37.600 --> 0:04:39.560 What do you do for these remaining months here as 0:04:39.800 --> 0:04:43.919 we're looking at two? Yeah, I mean it's it's actually 0:04:44.040 --> 0:04:47.440 quite a tough um sort of outlook I think for 0:04:48.040 --> 0:04:53.080 UM investors because you know, the broad macroeconomic outlook you know, 0:04:53.200 --> 0:04:56.200 in our view is still pretty positive. We're expecting you know, 0:04:56.279 --> 0:05:00.440 still solid growth. It's a good backdrop for corporate earnings. UM, 0:05:00.480 --> 0:05:03.520 it's a good back job for UM. You know, credit 0:05:03.600 --> 0:05:06.640 markets more and more and more broadly, but against that, 0:05:06.760 --> 0:05:10.359 valuations are very you know, are very stretches. I know 0:05:10.520 --> 0:05:14.640 something that you've been UM discussing. You know, obviously equities, uh, 0:05:14.720 --> 0:05:18.560 you know, all time highs. Credit spreads are you know, 0:05:19.160 --> 0:05:22.040 at or near sort of they're sort of all in 0:05:22.240 --> 0:05:25.159 tights all in Yields are very low as well. So 0:05:25.560 --> 0:05:28.160 you know, the way that we're allocating capital is to 0:05:28.240 --> 0:05:31.640 stay fully invested. But we have UM it's like take 0:05:31.760 --> 0:05:36.400 dial down some of the risks in our portfolios. UM. 0:05:36.440 --> 0:05:38.800 You know, we're just concentrating on those sectors that we 0:05:38.880 --> 0:05:43.159 particularly like. We still like UM financials. UM. We do 0:05:43.240 --> 0:05:45.839 think we're gonna get some steepening at some point of 0:05:45.880 --> 0:05:49.240 the the yield curve and also the improving outlook and 0:05:49.279 --> 0:05:52.360 improvement in asset quality. So we like things like subfinancial 0:05:52.920 --> 0:05:55.800 UM debt, but we we've kind of scaled back on 0:05:55.920 --> 0:05:59.680 some of the sort of cyclical exposure. Um, you know 0:05:59.760 --> 0:06:03.320 we have just because say a lot of the evaluations 0:06:03.400 --> 0:06:06.720 of such that you're just not really getting paid to take. 0:06:06.839 --> 0:06:09.039 I think, too much risk at this point in time. 0:06:09.160 --> 0:06:13.400 Stay invested, but don't kind of go too far away 0:06:13.440 --> 0:06:18.360 from home. Don't take too much risk onto the portfolio. David, 0:06:18.360 --> 0:06:21.280 thanks very much, great to get your insight in these 0:06:21.320 --> 0:06:23.799 markets as we hit you know, yet another record high. 0:06:23.839 --> 0:06:27.960 I think it's important to be cautious, right, I mean, 0:06:28.000 --> 0:06:31.640 after how, after all, how many years can you see 0:06:31.720 --> 0:06:35.200 gains of this size? And I mean there are some 0:06:35.200 --> 0:06:37.200 good points to be made still in the in the 0:06:37.240 --> 0:06:40.960 long camp, but I think you've got to you've gotta 0:06:41.360 --> 0:06:45.839 watch the obvious signpost. David Riley, their partner and chief 0:06:45.920 --> 0:06:50.000 investment strategists at Blue Bay Asset Management, talking to us 0:06:50.080 --> 0:06:53.760 about the non farm payrolls numbers tomorrow. As a reminder, 0:06:53.800 --> 0:06:56.640 if you're a Bloomberg terminal user, you can tie w 0:06:57.160 --> 0:07:01.599 h I S. Go there. You'll see under number twenty 0:07:01.640 --> 0:07:04.320 eight the change in non farm payrolls, the whisper number 0:07:04.640 --> 0:07:11.640 so far seven and twenty thousand. This is Bloomberg. Rebecca 0:07:11.720 --> 0:07:15.560 Ray joins US executive vice president of Human capital at 0:07:15.600 --> 0:07:18.800 the conference board, and she's here to talk about They're 0:07:18.960 --> 0:07:22.120 back to work survey. A conference border return to work 0:07:22.480 --> 0:07:26.320 survey shows it as delta surges. Anxiety about the return 0:07:26.360 --> 0:07:32.400 to the workplace has nearly doubled. What exactly does this mean? 0:07:32.800 --> 0:07:36.160 I mean in terms of anxiety like my seventy five 0:07:36.200 --> 0:07:38.320 year old mom is afraid to get COVID or what 0:07:38.400 --> 0:07:42.560 kind of anxiety do you do? You do? You mean, well, 0:07:42.600 --> 0:07:44.960 good morning, and thank you for asking me to join you. 0:07:45.440 --> 0:07:49.040 They're very concerned about a few things in particular, and 0:07:49.160 --> 0:07:51.520 we had seen a decline in the number of people 0:07:51.800 --> 0:07:55.160 in our earlier very similar surveys indicate that they were 0:07:55.200 --> 0:07:59.320 concerned about personally contracting COVID or bringing it back home 0:07:59.360 --> 0:08:02.320 to go in their home, and that had dropped a 0:08:02.320 --> 0:08:04.040 bit when we last died this in June, but it 0:08:04.120 --> 0:08:06.880 has popped back up, and I think that's attributable to 0:08:06.920 --> 0:08:10.080 a few things, largely the headlines around the rise of 0:08:10.120 --> 0:08:15.320 the delta variant. So again, I guess, Rebecca, the issue 0:08:15.360 --> 0:08:17.280 is that we're coming up here on Labor Day, and 0:08:17.680 --> 0:08:20.040 that seemed to be a day a lot of businesses 0:08:20.200 --> 0:08:22.440 were saying, Hey, we're going to start bringing people back 0:08:22.440 --> 0:08:25.160 to work once the summer's over and all that type 0:08:25.200 --> 0:08:28.400 of thing. Now we've seen companies kind of push that 0:08:28.520 --> 0:08:32.680 back to October something even the new year. Is that 0:08:32.760 --> 0:08:36.360 in a reflection of what they're hearing from their employees, 0:08:38.240 --> 0:08:41.000 I think in part, I think also they're watching the 0:08:41.040 --> 0:08:44.400 same headlines. They're concerned about the ability to keep their 0:08:44.440 --> 0:08:47.240 workers safe, which I think, to their credit, almost every 0:08:47.320 --> 0:08:50.080 business has had that as the number one priority. But 0:08:50.160 --> 0:08:53.840 they're also watching to see what kind of local government 0:08:54.080 --> 0:08:58.199 or state government mandates there maybe around mask usage or spacing. 0:08:58.640 --> 0:09:02.520 And so you know, this is a very fluid changing situation, 0:09:02.720 --> 0:09:05.840 and so you know it puts businesses in a tough spot. 0:09:05.880 --> 0:09:08.640 They have to make a call, and you know, new 0:09:08.679 --> 0:09:11.520 information comes along and they made need to revisit that. 0:09:11.920 --> 0:09:14.760 So I think there's an awful lot of re examining 0:09:14.800 --> 0:09:17.000 all the time as to whether or not the plans 0:09:17.000 --> 0:09:19.800 that they have in place are indeed correct for the 0:09:19.880 --> 0:09:23.880 latest situation. There are some people who just don't want 0:09:23.920 --> 0:09:27.640 to ever go back though, right. I mean, I'm not 0:09:27.640 --> 0:09:35.559 saying they would answer um questions on a survey, uh untruthfully, 0:09:35.600 --> 0:09:38.760 But there are people that clearly are happier working from 0:09:38.800 --> 0:09:43.840 home and maybe even more productive. So does this does 0:09:43.960 --> 0:09:48.400 does the way we work look changed forever? I think 0:09:48.400 --> 0:09:51.440 it's certainly changed for the foreseeable future. I think there's 0:09:51.440 --> 0:09:54.320 a great experiment about working remotely, and certainly I want 0:09:54.360 --> 0:09:57.640 to acknowledge that many companies and many workers don't have 0:09:57.760 --> 0:10:00.280 that opportunity. You know, they had to consuldier on and 0:10:00.320 --> 0:10:03.319 they had to adapt their you know, manufacturing plans who 0:10:03.320 --> 0:10:06.840 were you know, continue to have frontline workers. But for 0:10:06.880 --> 0:10:10.440 those who were able to work remotely, we've proven I 0:10:10.440 --> 0:10:13.040 think we knew beforehand, whether it was research from the 0:10:13.080 --> 0:10:15.800 conference board of that of others, that remote work was 0:10:15.840 --> 0:10:19.079 as productive in most cases as work in a physical 0:10:19.080 --> 0:10:22.960 work site work site. So we have truly proven that now. 0:10:23.360 --> 0:10:26.600 And I think the longer that this has has gone on, 0:10:27.000 --> 0:10:30.520 the more people have become accustomed to balancing their work 0:10:30.600 --> 0:10:33.719 and personal lives. And there are some benefits. Certainly, there 0:10:33.720 --> 0:10:35.880 are some risks, and we identified some of those in 0:10:35.880 --> 0:10:38.320 the survey, but for an awful lot of people, the 0:10:38.320 --> 0:10:41.360 ability to have a better grip on integrating their work 0:10:41.520 --> 0:10:43.840 and personal lives. I hate to use the word balance, 0:10:43.880 --> 0:10:47.280 but but let's say integration. People have realized that they 0:10:47.280 --> 0:10:50.240 can do it, and many people, particularly those who have 0:10:50.400 --> 0:10:53.320 maybe a good twenty years of work ahead of them, 0:10:53.520 --> 0:10:55.520 are saying, I do not want to go back to 0:10:55.559 --> 0:10:58.560 the way things were with doing a commute five days 0:10:58.600 --> 0:11:02.040 into the office. The lost productivity of the commute time 0:11:02.880 --> 0:11:07.280 is when I think on a lot of those decisions, Rebecca, 0:11:07.320 --> 0:11:11.600 We've seen some reporting that says employers are saying, Okay, 0:11:11.920 --> 0:11:16.200 you can work remotely, but if you're relocating from the 0:11:16.240 --> 0:11:20.400 Bay area of San Francisco, for example, to Boise, Idaho, 0:11:20.679 --> 0:11:23.680 we're going to make an adjustment in your compensation. Um 0:11:23.800 --> 0:11:27.320 is that going to be an issue as well? Well. 0:11:27.360 --> 0:11:29.160 I think these are early days, and I do know 0:11:29.200 --> 0:11:31.440 that a lot of the diet your Rose with whom 0:11:31.520 --> 0:11:35.160 I interact have talked about the fact that this is 0:11:35.240 --> 0:11:38.560 not I mean, this is uncharted territory in a way. 0:11:38.720 --> 0:11:42.040 I do know this that workers want flexibility, and the 0:11:42.160 --> 0:11:47.160 people who are offering a rigid work arrangement, they are 0:11:47.160 --> 0:11:49.640 going to run the risk of losing their top talent 0:11:49.720 --> 0:11:52.319 to their competitors. Now, I think the same thing is 0:11:52.360 --> 0:11:54.640 going to happen when you start to look at compensation. 0:11:55.080 --> 0:11:58.319 We've already seen in the financial services area some uh, 0:11:58.559 --> 0:12:00.880 some entities who have Look, we said, they're going to 0:12:00.960 --> 0:12:04.120 offer flexibility and they're looking to pick off top talent. 0:12:04.679 --> 0:12:07.080 So when you start to play with compensation, I think 0:12:07.120 --> 0:12:08.640 the same thing is going to happen. There are going 0:12:08.679 --> 0:12:11.160 to be other entities who want that top talent and 0:12:11.200 --> 0:12:14.800 they're going to match or make a very attractive compensation 0:12:14.880 --> 0:12:17.800 offer to top talent. So I'm not sure it's a 0:12:17.840 --> 0:12:21.439 winning strategy, but it is early days. Yeah. No, we 0:12:21.559 --> 0:12:23.800 just got a story a couple of days ago Deutsche 0:12:23.800 --> 0:12:25.480 Bank says anyone who wants to walk through the doors 0:12:25.480 --> 0:12:28.959 of its headquarters needs to be vaccinated. UBS comes right 0:12:28.960 --> 0:12:30.600 out two days later and says, hey, if you don't 0:12:30.600 --> 0:12:32.839 want to be vaccinated, you can apply to work from home. 0:12:33.520 --> 0:12:36.880 That could work. So it does look like employers are 0:12:36.920 --> 0:12:42.280 starting to see opportunities here are we Are we seeing 0:12:42.280 --> 0:12:46.640 it all results of productivity? Is it? Is it really 0:12:46.679 --> 0:12:48.800 as productive if you work from home? Is it less? 0:12:48.920 --> 0:12:53.640 Is it more? You know? I think they're certainly gonna 0:12:53.640 --> 0:12:56.400 be variations, But in the main, I do think productivity 0:12:56.400 --> 0:12:59.000 has remained as high. Now. I say that with the 0:12:59.040 --> 0:13:03.920 caveat there are there are some downsides to a continued 0:13:03.960 --> 0:13:07.920 remote working, particularly when offices are closed perhaps and people 0:13:07.920 --> 0:13:10.360 don't have the opportunity to interact with colleagues in quite 0:13:10.360 --> 0:13:13.440 the same way. So I do think that we're going 0:13:13.440 --> 0:13:16.480 to be watching this very closely. But I do think 0:13:16.520 --> 0:13:20.880 that the concerns around isolation and mental health, the concerns 0:13:20.960 --> 0:13:24.400 around career advancement, you know, we're seeing in the headlines today. 0:13:24.440 --> 0:13:28.080 Even some organizations are saying, if you're not vaccinated, please 0:13:28.120 --> 0:13:30.800 don't come to our you know, our leadership development center 0:13:30.880 --> 0:13:33.080 because this is just not something that you can take 0:13:33.120 --> 0:13:35.679 advantage of. All right, I have to leave it there 0:13:35.720 --> 0:13:37.040 just because of time, but thank you so much for 0:13:37.120 --> 0:13:39.680 joining us. Rebecca Ray, executive vice president of Human Capital 0:13:39.679 --> 0:13:45.040 for the Conference Board. Well, well, the delta variant raging 0:13:45.160 --> 0:13:47.920 in various parts of the country, folks are thinking about 0:13:48.120 --> 0:13:52.080 maybe staycation might be the call here for this Labor 0:13:52.200 --> 0:13:55.719 Day weekend, maybe not doing so much traveling. Let's check 0:13:55.720 --> 0:13:57.880 in with Brian Fields. He's a chief commercial officer for 0:13:58.040 --> 0:14:00.959 group On based in Chicago, Illinois. Brian, thanks so much 0:14:00.960 --> 0:14:03.120 for joining us here again as we head into this 0:14:03.320 --> 0:14:06.480 Labor Day weekend. What are you seeing in terms of 0:14:06.520 --> 0:14:09.800 the experiences that that some of your users are are 0:14:09.960 --> 0:14:14.160 looking for. Hey, Paula, Matt, thank you for having me 0:14:14.160 --> 0:14:16.840 on the show. Very excited to be here. We are 0:14:17.040 --> 0:14:20.880 very excited about the upcoming Labor Day weekend, and we 0:14:21.000 --> 0:14:23.400 do believe we can help consumers find something amazing to 0:14:23.480 --> 0:14:26.000 do in their local communities or wherever they may be. 0:14:26.840 --> 0:14:30.800 Uh really coming back coming out of the pandemic, we 0:14:30.880 --> 0:14:33.080 all want to get back to experiences to bring us 0:14:33.200 --> 0:14:37.040 joy and allow us to connect meaningfully with others. As 0:14:37.080 --> 0:14:41.640 a result, what we're seeing is consumers gravitating more towards uh, 0:14:41.800 --> 0:14:45.720 towards more of what they did pre pandemic, despite what's 0:14:45.720 --> 0:14:49.680 happening with the delta variants. So top trending local experiences 0:14:49.720 --> 0:14:53.000 at the moment in North America, we're seeing our return 0:14:53.080 --> 0:14:59.160 to trampoline parks and bouncy houses, amusement parks, museums, and 0:14:59.240 --> 0:15:02.960 zoos animal looks. So um. We obviously have a ton 0:15:03.000 --> 0:15:05.760 of options available for all this. H on the group 0:15:05.760 --> 0:15:08.640 on mobile app. I get into a trampoline park. Do 0:15:08.680 --> 0:15:10.800 you have to be a kid or kind of? No? 0:15:13.360 --> 0:15:15.960 I don't know. I don't know if there's any upper 0:15:16.040 --> 0:15:19.160 limits on size, but you absolutely do not have to 0:15:19.280 --> 0:15:22.680 be a kid. I speak from personal experience. There are 0:15:22.680 --> 0:15:25.400 a lot of fun that sounds awesome. I've never I 0:15:25.440 --> 0:15:28.040 was thinking you're gonna tell us like race tracks or skydiving, 0:15:28.160 --> 0:15:32.440 but it's actually I haven't been bowling and so long. 0:15:32.840 --> 0:15:36.760 I would love to go bowling right now. What what 0:15:36.760 --> 0:15:39.480 what about the kind of higher end experiences? What are 0:15:39.880 --> 0:15:44.840 what are people looking at on the luxury front? Yeah? So, um, 0:15:44.880 --> 0:15:47.880 you know, so we we think outdoor activities are at 0:15:47.920 --> 0:15:50.440 the forefront at this Labor Day weekend, but we're seeing 0:15:50.480 --> 0:15:54.360 some other big trends. Uh that that kind of hit 0:15:54.440 --> 0:15:57.840 your point on some some higher end services A couple 0:15:57.840 --> 0:16:01.920 of couple of massages really popular. Um, and we're seeing, 0:16:02.400 --> 0:16:05.800 you know, people are kind of making themselves look look 0:16:05.840 --> 0:16:08.880 better and more conscious about being on zoom all the 0:16:08.920 --> 0:16:12.920 time as we use technology to communicate with others more so, uh, 0:16:13.040 --> 0:16:15.560 looking at services such as botox and white Bow to 0:16:15.600 --> 0:16:18.680 be zoom ready, it's been has been very popular as well. 0:16:19.680 --> 0:16:22.040 Hey Brian, you know you're just gonna let that one lie. 0:16:22.520 --> 0:16:24.920 I'm gonna let that one due. I wonder if they 0:16:24.920 --> 0:16:26.880 could light at one of my chains, you know, just 0:16:26.880 --> 0:16:31.840 get rid of one. I think you can you can 0:16:31.880 --> 0:16:34.840 find just about any any service that that you want 0:16:34.840 --> 0:16:37.880 out there for a needy group on, I need somebody else. 0:16:38.240 --> 0:16:41.680 If Paul weren't in such good shape, you could join me. Yeah, well, 0:16:41.800 --> 0:16:43.560 you know, I'll talk to Al from Jersey on that. Matt, 0:16:43.600 --> 0:16:45.120 see see what see what we can do? All right? 0:16:45.200 --> 0:16:47.240 So group on Brian, I know you guys deal with 0:16:47.280 --> 0:16:49.640 a lot of small businesses and they got really hit 0:16:49.680 --> 0:16:53.720 hard with the pandemic and the economic disruption. Here. What 0:16:53.760 --> 0:16:55.800 are you seeing with some of your small businesses around 0:16:55.800 --> 0:17:02.160 the country, So you know, the bottom line is is resilience. Um, 0:17:02.440 --> 0:17:07.760 it is amazing how resilient. Uh, these small businesses have been. 0:17:08.080 --> 0:17:11.000 They've been creative, they've they've you know, in the restaurant space, 0:17:11.040 --> 0:17:14.520 they've pivoted to take out the delivery over the last year, UM, 0:17:14.560 --> 0:17:17.400 you know, in the healthcare space, moved to virtual. We've 0:17:17.480 --> 0:17:22.199 just seen just incredible resilience, uh, within our merchants that 0:17:22.240 --> 0:17:25.840 we work with. And you've got to it's not just 0:17:25.880 --> 0:17:28.640 in the US, right because I see group on dot 0:17:28.720 --> 0:17:32.560 d so you can access these. I'm in Berlin by 0:17:32.600 --> 0:17:36.440 the way, Brian, so you can access these in all 0:17:36.440 --> 0:17:41.800 different countries. Um, what kind of growth do you expect 0:17:42.320 --> 0:17:44.679 or what kind of growth are you seeing now that 0:17:44.760 --> 0:17:46.760 we've reopened, I guess, and what kind of growth do 0:17:46.800 --> 0:17:52.240 you expect throughout the year? Yeah? We um, look, we're 0:17:52.400 --> 0:17:57.959 um ah, we're seeing growth in a lot of our 0:17:58.000 --> 0:18:02.679 traditional categories. Um what we uh what we you know, 0:18:02.760 --> 0:18:06.600 we we certainly have a bit of a bump here 0:18:06.600 --> 0:18:11.400 we delta um, which which you know we're all working through. 0:18:11.800 --> 0:18:15.200 But um, you know, the will be watching the macro 0:18:15.320 --> 0:18:19.159 environment very closely. But again, due to the resilience of 0:18:19.160 --> 0:18:21.560 our merchants, we think that these challenges will just ebb 0:18:21.560 --> 0:18:23.520 and flow over the second half of the year. They 0:18:23.520 --> 0:18:26.439 are transient and we are continuing to focus on what 0:18:26.480 --> 0:18:29.480 we can control, which is just helping our merchants recover 0:18:29.680 --> 0:18:33.480 from these devastating impacts of COVID and giving our customers 0:18:33.480 --> 0:18:37.080 back some sense of normalcy. How about different parts of 0:18:37.119 --> 0:18:40.200 the country, Brian, you're seeing regionality to to your business. 0:18:40.280 --> 0:18:42.119 Some some parts of the country seem to be in 0:18:42.160 --> 0:18:47.480 a more open mode than than others. Yeah, that's right. Um, 0:18:47.600 --> 0:18:50.480 so you know we've seen this over the last year. Again, 0:18:50.520 --> 0:18:53.399 as as as the pandemic kind of uh you know, 0:18:53.480 --> 0:18:56.400 as works its way through different regions, but a lot 0:18:56.440 --> 0:19:00.680 of it is, uh is weather dependence. Right. So at 0:19:00.680 --> 0:19:04.000 certain points of the year, depending on on you know, 0:19:04.040 --> 0:19:08.440 where you live, there's the the outdoor activities uh kind 0:19:08.440 --> 0:19:11.760 of spike up and down. UM you know so uh 0:19:12.440 --> 0:19:15.679 East Coast colder weather climate. UM, right now it's you know, 0:19:15.720 --> 0:19:20.600 prime outdoor activity time. UM as the winter comes around. UM, 0:19:20.840 --> 0:19:24.040 we do have seasonality in what people do, and depending 0:19:24.040 --> 0:19:28.399 on people's comfort levels. UM, you know, we'll have something 0:19:28.440 --> 0:19:31.840 there for them, uh, to to take care of regardless 0:19:31.880 --> 0:19:34.560 of the weather. Um, you can going back into the 0:19:34.600 --> 0:19:38.560 trampoline parks if that's what they're feel safe doing. I'm 0:19:38.560 --> 0:19:40.840 gonna look for one. I'm not sure how safe it 0:19:40.960 --> 0:19:45.840 is um in my shape, but uh, maybe maybe I'll 0:19:45.920 --> 0:19:49.320 stretch this month, I'll stretch, I'll do a little bit 0:19:49.359 --> 0:19:52.520 more training, and then in October, I'm gonna hit the 0:19:52.520 --> 0:19:55.040 the trampoline park. Brian, thanks so much for joining us. 0:19:55.040 --> 0:19:58.600 Brian Fields is the chief commercial officer at Group. On 0:19:58.760 --> 0:20:01.800 coming to us out of Chicago, go with uh some 0:20:01.920 --> 0:20:05.360 ideas in terms of what to do this Labor Day weekend, 0:20:05.560 --> 0:20:07.760 and also a little bit of color in terms of 0:20:08.240 --> 0:20:12.000 the bump that we're hitting in this reopening because of 0:20:12.040 --> 0:20:19.600 the delta variant of the coronavirus. This is Bloomberg. I 0:20:19.600 --> 0:20:21.800 want to bring in a lim Ram tool right now. 0:20:21.840 --> 0:20:24.440 He's a partner and co had a private equity investing 0:20:24.480 --> 0:20:27.919 at developing world markets, and he's going to talk to 0:20:28.000 --> 0:20:32.080 us about UM what they can do for Afghan refugees. 0:20:32.119 --> 0:20:38.520 A lame. You have firsthand experience with forced displacement as UM. 0:20:38.520 --> 0:20:41.560 What your Your family was driven out of East Africa 0:20:41.720 --> 0:20:44.639 and put into the U S And Canada, resettled in 0:20:44.640 --> 0:20:47.800 the U S And Canada. Yeah, that's that's exactly right. 0:20:48.160 --> 0:20:52.120 My own family faced UM force expulsion from from East 0:20:52.119 --> 0:20:55.360 Africa in the mid nineteen seventy amidst UM the xenophobic 0:20:55.440 --> 0:21:00.159 rhetoric and the discriminatory policies associated with South Asian is 0:21:00.200 --> 0:21:03.520 at the at the time and similar to today's ftps, 0:21:03.720 --> 0:21:07.159 left without asset and any any means of income, and 0:21:07.560 --> 0:21:09.720 we're we're forced to, you know, kind of resettle and 0:21:09.760 --> 0:21:12.360 start over here. So I just want to point us 0:21:12.440 --> 0:21:14.720 you went on though to get You went to Princeton 0:21:14.960 --> 0:21:18.080 and then got your MBA at Harvard. Uh, you worked 0:21:18.200 --> 0:21:22.280 on Wall Street at JP Morgan and now what what 0:21:22.560 --> 0:21:26.600 is developing world markets. Explained to us, UM, what what 0:21:26.680 --> 0:21:30.000 you're doing at this company? Sure, I mean we're we're 0:21:30.040 --> 0:21:33.600 an impact investment firm UM, and essentially without means is 0:21:33.640 --> 0:21:38.320 that we invest into companies with the intention to generate 0:21:38.560 --> 0:21:43.280 you know, measurable beneficial and social and environmental returns alongside 0:21:43.280 --> 0:21:46.879 a strong financial return. UM. You know, impact investors operate 0:21:47.000 --> 0:21:51.400 kind of across the spectrum between capital preservation and commercial 0:21:51.440 --> 0:21:54.439 return UH. In our particular brand of impact investing is 0:21:54.480 --> 0:21:57.959 that we we are able to generate commercial returns UH, 0:21:58.040 --> 0:22:02.359 commercial risk adjusted returns UM, while still UM, you know, 0:22:02.400 --> 0:22:05.879 generating this measurable kind of beneficial impact on on the 0:22:05.920 --> 0:22:10.200 community and our lines. Solyan, we're seeing lots of reporting 0:22:10.200 --> 0:22:14.639 and lots of video of the refugees from Afghanistan. Just 0:22:14.640 --> 0:22:17.120 give us a sense, based upon your experience, what can 0:22:17.160 --> 0:22:20.600 they expect as they are resettled in different parts of 0:22:20.640 --> 0:22:24.880 the world. Sure, you know, I think there's there's certainly, Um, 0:22:25.080 --> 0:22:26.760 much of the discussion here in the West has been 0:22:26.760 --> 0:22:29.200 focused on, you know, the hundred and twenty thousand Afghans 0:22:29.280 --> 0:22:32.320 that have been evacuated you know, in in August alone. 0:22:32.359 --> 0:22:35.159 But I think what many failed to realize is that 0:22:35.240 --> 0:22:39.040 is that they were already nearly three million people that 0:22:39.119 --> 0:22:42.240 were internally displaced within the country UH, and a comparable 0:22:42.320 --> 0:22:44.760 number that were that were outside of the country. Right 0:22:44.800 --> 0:22:48.800 and because of decades of conflict and insecurity, frankly poverty 0:22:48.880 --> 0:22:52.160 and and recent impacts of climate events, you know, across 0:22:52.200 --> 0:22:55.040 all of the province provinces in Afghanistan. You know, we've 0:22:55.080 --> 0:22:57.600 we've seen a majority kind of flew flee from you know, 0:22:57.720 --> 0:23:01.320 rural areas into into kabble UH. And you know, you 0:23:01.359 --> 0:23:03.919 know kind of again a comfortable number in Pakistan, Iran 0:23:04.040 --> 0:23:06.520 and in Germany. So UM, you know they are they 0:23:06.560 --> 0:23:10.560 are likely to see UM, you know, significant influxes across 0:23:10.600 --> 0:23:12.600