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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast podcast.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go spreading the corn.

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Speaker 3: Ten seconds of eating the just go throw under the basket,

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Speaker 3: under the basket, it's.

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Speaker 4: The true for the wind, God, the go a miracle.

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Speaker 2: I'm just it's up the water.

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Speaker 4: Hit that one from the parking lot.

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Speaker 2: Shuck it all.

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Speaker 4: In college basketball, it's not the size on the dog

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Speaker 4: in the fight.

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Speaker 5: It's the size of the fight in the dog.

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Speaker 2: What's up, gener Nation? Welcome to the Big Bets on

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Speaker 2: Campus Podcast. This is the weekend college basketball betting preview.

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Speaker 2: I'm stuck in with me as always, is b J

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Speaker 2: Cunningham ready to talk some hoops. Absolutely.

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Speaker 6: It's a wonderful Saturday slay with the SEC.

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Speaker 2: Big Twelve Challenge along with another great games. So I'm

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Speaker 2: really excited for it. Yeah, it'll it'll go a long

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Speaker 2: way in determining which conference reign supreme. I like this

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Speaker 2: for Bragg and Rights. It's gonna tell us a lot

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Speaker 2: about all these teams. We have a lot to get

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Speaker 2: to today. We will bring in our friend mister Colin Wilson.

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Speaker 2: As always, we'll give one pick and then get out

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Speaker 2: of here. I will talk with Blake Lovell, who covers

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Speaker 2: the sec that interview be later in the show. We

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Speaker 2: obviously have our Friday Night six pack from the guys

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Speaker 2: from Three Man Leave, and we will get to that

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Speaker 2: later in the show as well. Be j in I

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Speaker 2: will also go through Saturday's card highlights and spots that

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Speaker 2: we have circled. We'll also talk a little Kentucky Kansas.

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Speaker 2: By the way, all the talk here in Lexington is

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Speaker 2: Kentucky's gotta win because they got to keep Kansas at

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Speaker 2: arms length to the Highs and poser, because Kentucky has

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Speaker 2: the most wins all time in college basketball history. They

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Speaker 2: are four ahead of Kansas. So you get this win,

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Speaker 2: you're pretty much guaranteed to hold that record for another year.

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Speaker 2: If not, you know you're up three Kansas. Kentucky out early.

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Speaker 2: All of a sudden, Kansas says the most wins of

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Speaker 2: all time. So that's a talking point here locally, and

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Speaker 2: I'm sure in Lawrence as well.

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Speaker 1: Uh.

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Speaker 2: Before we talk weekend card let's and and takeaways from

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Speaker 2: this week, let's bring in mister Wilson. Isn't mister Wilson

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Speaker 2: the guy from Home Improvement? While I'm dating am I

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Speaker 2: dating myself? We peeked over the fence. Hey Wilson, what

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Speaker 2: are you up to? Well, Tim, I'm admiring my yams.

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Speaker 2: Can I leave you alone?

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Speaker 4: Yeah?

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Speaker 3: Every episode he was on on Home Improvement, you had

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Speaker 3: to make sure and cover the bottom of his face

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Speaker 3: like his man.

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Speaker 2: Never say it.

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Speaker 4: And I've been called that a lot. But a lot

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Speaker 4: of people also call me volleyball from.

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Speaker 3: Castaway Wilson, you know, So yeah, there's a there's been

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Speaker 3: a lot of that. But at least no one's calling

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Speaker 3: me Colon. That was the great name in six years

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Speaker 3: old when everybody was.

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Speaker 2: Calling Coland yeah, I think we had a Colon in

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Speaker 2: middle school. How's tracking the transfer portal going?

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Speaker 4: Oh? The transfer portal is wild? I think.

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Speaker 3: You know we've got We've still got six years seniors,

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Speaker 3: fifth year seniors that are coming back, so we don't

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Speaker 3: really have an accurate gauge of offensive lines stuck. You

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Speaker 3: know that Northern Illinois is going to return everybody. I

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Speaker 3: think like every single roster spot is going to be

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Speaker 3: filled with six of your seniors. BJA Iowa is going

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Speaker 3: to be I think they have one of the most returning,

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Speaker 3: biggest returning production numbers on offense. So you know, college

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Speaker 3: football is wild. But I can't wait. When this podcast

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Speaker 3: gets released, we'll know if Caleb Williams. Caleb Williams is

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Speaker 3: last day to declare for usc IS on Friday, and

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Speaker 3: if he doesn't declare by tomorrow to start the spring semester,

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Speaker 3: he may be Wisconsin bound. And I don't know how

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Speaker 3: stuck he's going to deal with that, because making fun

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Speaker 3: of poverty offense is not going to be a thing

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Speaker 3: for Wisconsin anymore.

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Speaker 4: So that's how Tarp's going.

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Speaker 2: They'll find a way to still have a poverty offense. BJ.

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Speaker 2: Do you have a joke about Iowa State?

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Speaker 7: Well, I heard last time that said Iowa State was

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Speaker 7: one of the worst teams in the transfer portal, and

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Speaker 7: I was just, you know, if you want to come

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Speaker 7: on and just talk for an hour about that, I'm

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Speaker 7: totally game. I don't know if we might lose our

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Speaker 7: entire listenership and aims, but I'm okay with that.

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Speaker 2: We've had enough college football talk for this show before

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Speaker 2: we lose the college basketball dieheards. Colin, we bring to

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Speaker 2: you on every week, talk to some Arkansas sometimes we

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Speaker 2: talked them last week, most weeks, if not, everyone willast

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Speaker 2: for one pick and then get you out of here.

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Speaker 2: I think you got a boxing class to go to.

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Speaker 2: He can chase down some money. You got one pick

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Speaker 2: for us for this weekend.

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Speaker 8: Woo pick Sully.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: The beauty of having a fifteen year old daughter is

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Speaker 3: that when you say, sweetie, would you like to have

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Speaker 3: a shared activity, and she says, coming to my boxing class.

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Speaker 4: That's how I got wrapped up into that.

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Speaker 3: So it's you you're not boxing, No, I'm going I'm

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Speaker 3: boxing with my daughter in a boxing class.

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Speaker 2: You know.

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Speaker 3: It's off season for me now, so I got to

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Speaker 3: get healthy before college baseball starts.

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Speaker 2: An MLA an ages thing and you can do with

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Speaker 2: your darters cool.

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Speaker 4: My wife is a little bit more extreme than I

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Speaker 4: am when it comes to working out. You know.

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Speaker 3: This weekend, I think the Arkansas spread is going to

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Speaker 3: be way too inflated. And I love this Big twelve

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Speaker 3: SEC challenge. Big twelve is getting a reputation that they're

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Speaker 3: the best, and I even took a future on Texas

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Speaker 3: Tech after that loss. But I think in general, I'm

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Speaker 3: betting SEC up and down the board. Arkansas is as

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Speaker 3: hot as can be, five wins in a row. They're

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Speaker 3: going up against a West Virginia team that's had four

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Speaker 3: losses in a row, and West Virginia has been sending

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Speaker 3: a lot of teams to the free throw line. Arkansas

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Speaker 3: is absolutely feast at the free throw line, So Stucky

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Speaker 3: talks a lot about free throw defense. If you don't

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Speaker 3: have good free throw defense, Arkansas will eat you up.

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Speaker 3: But I think the best bet this weekend if ty

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Speaker 3: Tie is back for Kentucky.

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Speaker 4: I don't know if we have that confirmed or or

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Speaker 4: I mean.

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Speaker 2: She ways hinted that he's going to be back, but

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Speaker 2: we don't know. It's a twisted ankle. It's probably be

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Speaker 2: a game time decision.

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Speaker 4: Down, up and down the board. I'm going straight SEC.

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Speaker 3: I mean, I would play a place to bet with

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Speaker 3: anybody that SEC wins and covers more games than the

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Speaker 3: Big Twelve this weekend. I think the Big Twelve is

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Speaker 3: getting a little bit too much steam, a little.

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Speaker 4: Bit too much hype.

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Speaker 3: And you know, when I watch some of these games,

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Speaker 3: you know, Kansas State they can't come back from anything.

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Speaker 3: You know, Kansas is having problems at home. The other night,

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Speaker 3: Texas Tech can't finish the job with their new coach,

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Speaker 3: Beard's still trying to fit in at Texas. The SEC

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Speaker 3: will win and cover more than the Big twelve this weekend.

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Speaker 2: Here, it just means, all right, do they have it?

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Speaker 2: So what I'm gonna do since it's you know, I'm

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Speaker 2: the host, and we'll just make this a contest. Every

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Speaker 2: week we'll have something new to add your record. It

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Speaker 2: could be one pick for now art your record. We'll

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Speaker 2: have a punishment that will take or you have to take,

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Speaker 2: depending on how you'd end up. You have every SEC

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Speaker 2: team against the spread. We'll be kind whether it's like

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Speaker 2: open or closed, we'll we'll be kind and well, we'll

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Speaker 2: just count it as one. So if you end up profitable, yeah,

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Speaker 2: you want to know. If you're not, you're er and one.

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Speaker 2: We will see you next weekend. Good luck boxing and

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Speaker 2: enjoy your weekend. Brother.

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Speaker 4: Thanks for having me, guys, see you soon. Wilson, what

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Speaker 4: are you doing?

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Speaker 8: Hi?

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Speaker 4: Oh Jim, I'm just testing my moroccas.

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Speaker 2: All right, there's mister Wilson peeking over the fence. BJA.

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Speaker 2: Quick takeaway from this week. Anything that you want to

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Speaker 2: mention ran about, anything that you want to talk about.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, the Arizona UCLA game on Wednesday night. I think

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Speaker 6: you know, the honest reaction to most people is oh,

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Speaker 6: my gosh.

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Speaker 2: You know, UCLA won by a ton and like they're

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Speaker 2: the new favorite to win the Pact ballve.

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Speaker 7: But I think everybody kind of needs to pump the

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Speaker 7: brakes on Ucla and everything, because Arizona really just didn't

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Speaker 7: shoot the ball well. If you look the shot quality,

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Speaker 7: you know, postgame win expectancy was around fifty percent.

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Speaker 2: You know, Mathrine went two of sixteen from.

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Speaker 7: Two point field goal range and he usually shoots around

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Speaker 7: fifty four percent.

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Speaker 6: Two bellis only played fifteen minutes.

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Speaker 2: So it was just a really bad spot for Arizona.

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Speaker 7: And I was looking at their odds to win the

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Speaker 7: Pac twelve and you know, they're currently tied with UCLA

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Speaker 7: and they're minus one twenty.

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Speaker 6: The UCLA still has to play Arizona.

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Speaker 2: On the road.

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Speaker 7: They gotta play Oregon on the road, and they got

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Speaker 7: to play USC on the road. Current price, I think

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Speaker 7: that's a pretty good price in Arizona. I don't think

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Speaker 7: you're gonna get much better as we go through it,

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Speaker 7: because this is still obviously an incredible team, and really

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Speaker 7: it's their Pack twelve flues, especially after Oregon laid that

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Speaker 7: egg against Colorado one.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it was definitely a impressive performance, but everything went

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Speaker 2: right for them and they played like the most the

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Speaker 2: perfect game, and then everything broke their way. But it's

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Speaker 2: just one game. But yeah, I agree. I think Arizona,

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Speaker 2: I think is still clearly the best team. I can't

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Speaker 2: wait for them. I had that spot circle. I wonder

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Speaker 2: how long, yeah, how high Hine's going to be when

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Speaker 2: they get them on at home in the second matchup.

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Speaker 2: My takeaways from the week, I have two one since

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Speaker 2: we will record this last Thursday, So I've been living

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Speaker 2: in a slum since I think. I'm let me check.

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Speaker 2: I am thirteen and twenty one since last Thursday, so

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Speaker 2: on a poor stretch. Now, two things that I want

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Speaker 2: to say about that. I mean, one, You're always going

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Speaker 2: to have those stretches, but think of it. We always

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Speaker 2: talk about shooting variants like I've had some dune, some

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Speaker 2: bad picks. You just have to deal with this in

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Speaker 2: college basketball, end of game variants, shooting variants like you're

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Speaker 2: going up against those things. There's a lot of variants.

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Speaker 2: When you're capping college basketball. You're gonna go on runs

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Speaker 2: when that those things are working your way. You're gonna

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Speaker 2: go on bad runs when they're not the one good

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Speaker 2: thing is there was so much more added variants, and

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Speaker 2: I survived it earlier in the seat, earlier in the

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Speaker 2: season up until like the last week or two with

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Speaker 2: missing players canceled games like it has calmed down a lot.

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Speaker 2: I am so burnt out. I mean, we've been doing

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Speaker 2: this every sports almost coming up on two years since

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Speaker 2: March twenty twenty, and I mean it is a exhausting

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Speaker 2: I went back and looked and the COVID news that

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Speaker 2: I beat in the market, I've lost money on, which

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Speaker 2: I'm like, why have I spent all this time doing this?

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Speaker 2: I could have just said I'm not gonna I might

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Speaker 2: trying to track now it's you know, small sample sizes.

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Speaker 2: It's like, you know, I mean, how many games are

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Speaker 2: there one hundred NFL it's even smaller, it's tiny. So

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Speaker 2: but yeah, it's the process, right. If you're not in

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Speaker 2: that mindset and grinding, then you're not what You're going

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Speaker 2: to be lazy elsewhere and you just have to accept

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Speaker 2: the varits. But I'm very excited that everything seemed until

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Speaker 2: the next area or whatever it is. But that gives

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Speaker 2: me peace of mind. As of right now, we're in

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Speaker 2: for a much smoother February and March. It's similar to

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Speaker 2: the dog days of August in baseball. You get some duds,

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Speaker 2: some you know, the crowds aren't as crazy some nights,

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Speaker 2: and you know, things kind of dragging comments, and then

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Speaker 2: like February first, it's like everything is kind of intensified

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Speaker 2: and it's all systems go. So I've had some weird januaries.

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Speaker 2: I've had some januaries where I've been demolished on pace

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Speaker 2: to do that. There's show events of January is where

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Speaker 2: absolutely crushed a very high variance month, or at least

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Speaker 2: the way that I cap but excited that the variants,

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Speaker 2: it looks like it's going to go down from a

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Speaker 2: who's out and who's in perspective. All right, let's move

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Speaker 2: on to Saturday's card.

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Speaker 1: So many games, so little time. Let's look at the

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Speaker 1: Saturday slate.

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Speaker 2: We will start with the aforementioned Kentucky Kansas game. That's

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Speaker 2: the marquee game, and it's where game days going on Saturday.

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Speaker 2: We can see I don't think there's any look at

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Speaker 2: lines for games like this yet, but you know, KEMPOM

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Speaker 2: has this Kansas at home, one of the best home

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Speaker 2: court advantages in all of college basketball, Kansas has Kemp

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Speaker 2: has this Kansas three point favorites here. I have these

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Speaker 2: teams pretty close to equal of Kentucky a little bit ahead,

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Speaker 2: and my home court for Lawrence in a non conference

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Speaker 2: game close to four points. So I'm like three three

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Speaker 2: and a half. I would need to bet Kentucky here,

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Speaker 2: and I don't think I'm gonna be doing it. I

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Speaker 2: would need five, I probably need six, and the reason

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Speaker 2: you know I'm gonna make this around three three and

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Speaker 2: a half four. So, just from the line DIY perspective,

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Speaker 2: I think Kentucky has some decent matchups, but there's a

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Speaker 2: lot of injury questions. Tye ty Washington turned ankle. The

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Speaker 2: on off splits, I mean just the splits in general

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Speaker 2: with him, when when he and Wheeler are playing for

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Speaker 2: Kentucky or when either one of them are out are drastic.

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Speaker 2: He's just so key to running the offense. Gives another ball,

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Speaker 2: handle big on defense, and he's a shoot. It gives

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Speaker 2: him another shooter. He's so impreedy. I think this is

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Speaker 2: their best all round offensive player already. You also had

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Speaker 2: Sibe who turned an ankle. You also had top of

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Speaker 2: who turned an ankle. They all said they're fine. She

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Speaker 2: may even hinted that ty Ty Washington's back, but like

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Speaker 2: ankles swell and so there's a lot of uncertainty there.

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Speaker 2: I think it'll be a great game, tough place to

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Speaker 2: play Kentucky. I still don't know if like all right,

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Speaker 2: are they like they've they've handled themselves well in these

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Speaker 2: tough environments for like stretches, but they never have their

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Speaker 2: whole team. They always they they've been hurt and like

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Speaker 2: it gets So this is a really tough ask, uh

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Speaker 2: at This should be a raucous environment. I assume the

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Speaker 2: line will come out around three, three and a half.

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Speaker 2: It'll most likely be a pass for me. It could

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Speaker 2: be pretty high scoring game if every at all everyone

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Speaker 2: is healthy on both sides. What are you looking at here?

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Speaker 7: If it comes out three and a half four, it's

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Speaker 7: probably a stay away, especially if ty Ty Washington is out.

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Speaker 6: I mean, it's a really interesting matchup between Sibwei and McCormick.

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Speaker 7: They're one and two an offensive remounting percentage, So the

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Speaker 7: big part of this is going to be all right,

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Speaker 7: can either one of those guys stay on the floor

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Speaker 7: and get you know, stay out of foul troll because

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Speaker 7: if one of them goes off the floor, there's just

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Speaker 7: a huge advantage for the other, you know, the other

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Speaker 7: team on the glass. But like you mentioned, you know Kentucky,

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Speaker 7: they jumped out quick against Auburn and they actually had

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Speaker 7: a pretty decent lead there until ty Ty Washington got

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Speaker 7: hurt and then everything kind of just you know fell

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Speaker 7: apart in the second half. If ty Ty Washington's back

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Speaker 7: and Kentucky is fully healthy, like this is a good chance,

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Speaker 7: like you said, if you can get five or six

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Speaker 7: is a good chance on Kentucky. But you know, kids

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Speaker 7: is just getting by the skin in their teeth. You know,

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Speaker 7: that's they're on like live number. But like four or five. Now,

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Speaker 7: you know, they escaped Norman, they escaped Manhattan, and then

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Speaker 7: they escaped Monday night when they really should have lost

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Speaker 7: to Texas Tech after they blew a huge lead.

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Speaker 6: So it's it's a really tough game to bet.

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Speaker 2: You know.

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Speaker 7: It's one of those things that maybe you wait and

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Speaker 7: try to live vet it. But other than that, I

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Speaker 7: agree with you. I'm just going to stay away.

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Speaker 2: Probably. Yeah, one thing they note here, it is a

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Speaker 2: really good point with the add in more variants with

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Speaker 2: who if one of those two gets like two early fouls,

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Speaker 2: it is just an enormous advantage for the team. McCormick

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Speaker 2: has done a really good job. I don't think he's

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Speaker 2: fout out this year. And no, he's not fed out

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Speaker 2: and he's but I mean he's not going against a

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Speaker 2: cheap way and one thing there. Calbar is really conservative

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Speaker 2: with cheaway, so if he picks up like two early fouls,

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Speaker 2: he might sit them like the entire rest of the half,

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Speaker 2: like fifteen minutes and being like I want him for

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Speaker 2: the whole second half. So if that's the case, until

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Speaker 2: you know, unless it gets like way on hand. But

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Speaker 2: if that's the case, I think you can live back

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Speaker 2: Kansas there and you know, then you can come back

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Speaker 2: I think on Kentucky when he comes back in could

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Speaker 2: be an angle. But we'll see where the line comes out.

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Speaker 2: Make sure you follow on an Action Network app to

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Speaker 2: see if we have any picks there. All right, let's

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Speaker 2: move on to Saturday by low Spot. What do you got,

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Speaker 2: I'll go Northwestern. They're taking on Illinois this weekend. So

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Speaker 2: Northwestern's two and seven in the Big Ten.

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Speaker 7: They're nine to nine overall, but they've been one of

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Speaker 7: the most unlucky teams in the conference. Based on their

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Speaker 7: shock quality record, they should be twelve and six and

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Speaker 7: five and four in the Big Ten. They just lost

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Speaker 7: a heartbreaker against Michigan where they were leading on the

338
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Speaker 7: road by seven with five minutes left to go and

339
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Speaker 7: just couldn't finish the game. In the two games for that,

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Speaker 7: they really should have beat Wisconsin at home. And now

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Speaker 7: Illinois's making the short drive up from Champagne potentially without

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Speaker 7: Kofe Coburn or if he's back, you know, from he's

343
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Speaker 7: coming off in concussion, so it's hard to believe imagine

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Speaker 7: that he'll be you know, one hundred percent for this game.

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Speaker 7: Northwestern has a good advantage. They're really good in transition

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Speaker 7: one point one to three points per possession. Illinois bottom

347
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Speaker 7: thirty percent in transition defense.

348
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Speaker 2: Northwestern is just.

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Speaker 7: Way overdue to win a close game. They're two and

350
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Speaker 7: seven in games sucided by seven points or less this season.

351
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Speaker 7: They have size, they have bodies potentially throw at Coburn

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Speaker 7: along with their along with the fact that they're a

353
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Speaker 7: fantastic defensive rebounding team. Ken Palm has his set Illinois

354
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Speaker 7: minus three. Assuming Coburn's back, it'll probably end up being

355
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Speaker 7: somewhere around there, but in some capacity I'll probably end.

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Speaker 2: Up being on Northwestern on Saturday at home. I had

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Speaker 2: that one circled as well, I'm gonna throw out this

358
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Speaker 2: just has to be the ultimate by Love. I'm gonna

359
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Speaker 2: go a little at home against Duke. Look, I don't

360
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Speaker 2: think Heels is going to play, which and I think

361
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Speaker 2: he's super important to Duke, like on both ends of

362
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Speaker 2: the floor. Kay came out and he said he has

363
00:16:11,520 --> 00:16:13,800
Speaker 2: progressed very well, but he's still not got on the court,

364
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Speaker 2: and saying that he's in the weight room, he's doing

365
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Speaker 2: the things our sports scientists want to make sure we're

366
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Speaker 2: treating this injury properly and not rushing his return. Went

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Speaker 2: on to talk about like we want to make sure

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Speaker 2: he's healthy long. So there's some rumbleings that he's gonna play,

369
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Speaker 2: but I don't I think based on that they're going

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Speaker 2: to be like, well, let's play it safe. We're playing Louisville.

371
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Speaker 2: There's no reason to rush him back. So I think

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Speaker 2: this line will come out a little high. And if

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Speaker 2: if this isn't Louisville's best effort of the season, what

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Speaker 2: is right? Like Chris apparently all the rumors around here

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Speaker 2: were it was a toxic environment. No one was getting along.

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Speaker 2: And now you you know, Chris Mack is gone, You're

377
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Speaker 2: at home against Duke. You also have the element of

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Speaker 2: surprise here, right, Like, Okay, let's throw in some different looks.

379
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Speaker 2: The assistants are, the players are probably gonna sit input.

380
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Speaker 2: Let's try this. This has to be their best effort

381
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Speaker 2: of the season. The bottom of the ball. For what

382
00:17:06,680 --> 00:17:09,399
Speaker 2: we've seen from Louisville, I think heels being out is

383
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Speaker 2: actually really important for Duke on both ends. So new

384
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Speaker 2: in Eastern ESPN, I'll be holding my news nose back

385
00:17:16,440 --> 00:17:18,439
Speaker 2: and over like it could go really wrong, But I

386
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Speaker 2: think you're gonna get value in this number. So high

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Speaker 2: spot anything here.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, I'm gonna go with And this is a funny

389
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Speaker 7: kind of cell high spot.

390
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Speaker 2: It's it's Marquette breaking news.

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Speaker 7: Right before we taped this, the game's being moved to

392
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Speaker 7: Sunday because of the weather in the Northeast. Marquette's won

393
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Speaker 7: seven straight games, including a win at Villanova. However, their

394
00:17:40,119 --> 00:17:43,600
Speaker 7: last four games per shot quality, they have under a

395
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Speaker 7: fifty percent post game win expectancy.

396
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Speaker 2: They're basically just a crazy shot.

397
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Speaker 7: Yeah, they're just shooting the lights out right now, because

398
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Speaker 7: they're they're not a good offensive rebounding team. They're outside

399
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Speaker 7: the top three hundred and offensive rebounding percentage, they're outside

400
00:17:55,960 --> 00:17:58,639
Speaker 7: the top two fifty in free throw rate. You know,

401
00:17:58,640 --> 00:18:00,600
Speaker 7: even if you look at their shot quality, you know, tights,

402
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Speaker 7: you know, points per possession, you know, in finishing at

403
00:18:03,359 --> 00:18:05,679
Speaker 7: the rim, three hundred and eighth pick and roll, two

404
00:18:05,760 --> 00:18:08,840
Speaker 7: hundred and eighth half court offense to fifty four, it's

405
00:18:08,880 --> 00:18:12,600
Speaker 7: an offense that's just screaming, screaming for regression. Now, this

406
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Speaker 7: isn't the greatest of sell high spots because they're taking

407
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Speaker 7: on Providence, who the luckiest team in college basketball. But

408
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Speaker 7: and then, but this is kind of a look head

409
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Speaker 7: spot for Marquette. I don't know if you can call

410
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Speaker 7: it that, because they have Villanova at home this upcoming Wednesday.

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Speaker 7: So given the travel, given the game being pushed back,

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00:18:32,280 --> 00:18:35,359
Speaker 7: it's you know, and this is also there they're on

413
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Speaker 7: the road for the third time in ten days. It's

414
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Speaker 7: it's it's hard for me to sit here and say,

415
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Speaker 7: oh yeah, going against the luckiest team in college basketball,

416
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Speaker 7: it's a good spot. But eventually, this Marquette team is

417
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Speaker 7: going to come down to earth. So I'll sell High

418
00:18:48,040 --> 00:18:50,960
Speaker 7: on Marquette this weekend and take Providence at home.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I was actually really upset that these two teams

420
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Speaker 2: were playing each other. Yeah, when you know Providence still

421
00:18:58,720 --> 00:19:02,000
Speaker 2: another crazy when they at a buzzer beater to be

422
00:19:02,240 --> 00:19:05,520
Speaker 2: Xavier and then you know markt another impressive win. But

423
00:19:05,640 --> 00:19:07,920
Speaker 2: to be fair, I mean, Seaton Hall really misses Bryce

424
00:19:07,960 --> 00:19:09,480
Speaker 2: Aake and I mean you can see how important is

425
00:19:09,520 --> 00:19:12,000
Speaker 2: he saw against Saint John's earlier in the week two.

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Speaker 2: But these two teams are definitely running well. Uh And

427
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Speaker 2: one thing to keep an eye and keep an eye

428
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Speaker 2: on A. J. Reid's status. He's probably Providence's best shooter.

429
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Speaker 2: But I like this. I like the spot for Providence too.

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Speaker 2: If I had to go with one of these two teams,

431
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Speaker 2: who have both been pretty fortunate, I'm gonna throw out

432
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Speaker 2: I'm gonna throw out Syracuse here, and I'm gonna sell

433
00:19:32,680 --> 00:19:36,159
Speaker 2: wake Forest High. Wake Forest has been surprisingly good or

434
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Speaker 2: I shouldn't say' preidently good. Surprisingly a lot better than

435
00:19:38,440 --> 00:19:41,200
Speaker 2: I thought they'd be. Kind of on a little, a

436
00:19:41,240 --> 00:19:43,399
Speaker 2: little run here. I mean, they're let's see, they are,

437
00:19:43,880 --> 00:19:45,879
Speaker 2: They're a half game out of first place. In the

438
00:19:45,920 --> 00:19:50,280
Speaker 2: ACC they've been playing really well. But I really like

439
00:19:50,359 --> 00:19:52,440
Speaker 2: this matchup and I think you're gonna get some good

440
00:19:52,520 --> 00:19:55,440
Speaker 2: value based on what we've seen from Syracuse lately. Turkey

441
00:19:55,480 --> 00:19:57,160
Speaker 2: has been a lot better at home and what we've

442
00:19:57,200 --> 00:19:59,439
Speaker 2: seen from Wake. I just don't trust the wake Forest

443
00:19:59,480 --> 00:20:03,160
Speaker 2: offense against zones. And if you look their ninety one

444
00:20:03,560 --> 00:20:07,800
Speaker 2: percentile in offense against man demand, they are in the

445
00:20:07,880 --> 00:20:11,440
Speaker 2: fortieth percentile against zone and they've had over three hundred

446
00:20:11,440 --> 00:20:14,000
Speaker 2: posessions against them, including one against Syracuse. And Syracuse went

447
00:20:14,040 --> 00:20:16,800
Speaker 2: to Wake and they lost in overtime, fortunately covered I

448
00:20:16,840 --> 00:20:19,359
Speaker 2: was on them there. I just I don't like this

449
00:20:19,480 --> 00:20:23,359
Speaker 2: team against own and the reason is is they rely

450
00:20:23,480 --> 00:20:25,840
Speaker 2: on getting to the rim and that is where they thrive.

451
00:20:25,960 --> 00:20:28,879
Speaker 2: It's not a good shooting team. And also it's not

452
00:20:29,000 --> 00:20:32,080
Speaker 2: a good offensive rebounding team. So those are all the

453
00:20:32,080 --> 00:20:36,480
Speaker 2: things that you know that Syracuse limits with their zone, right,

454
00:20:36,560 --> 00:20:40,520
Speaker 2: yet they limit opportunities at the rim. Also one of

455
00:20:40,520 --> 00:20:43,360
Speaker 2: the biggest weaknesses that they allow offensive rebounds, but that's

456
00:20:43,400 --> 00:20:45,920
Speaker 2: not where Wake thries. And Wake's just not a great

457
00:20:45,960 --> 00:20:49,600
Speaker 2: shooting team, great passing team, cutting team, and the zone

458
00:20:49,680 --> 00:20:52,679
Speaker 2: kind of takes away a lot of that, and you

459
00:20:52,680 --> 00:20:56,080
Speaker 2: know QS doesn't turn the ball over as well, and

460
00:20:56,400 --> 00:20:59,479
Speaker 2: they rebound really well on the offensive end, and what

461
00:20:59,520 --> 00:21:02,760
Speaker 2: does that do? That limits transition opportunities for Wake, who's

462
00:21:02,880 --> 00:21:05,119
Speaker 2: excellent in transition. So there's a lot of things that

463
00:21:05,240 --> 00:21:09,280
Speaker 2: play that make this a really good matchup for Syracuse

464
00:21:09,960 --> 00:21:13,520
Speaker 2: revenge spot as well. And I think that selling Wake

465
00:21:13,640 --> 00:21:16,280
Speaker 2: kind of at the peak of the market here after

466
00:21:16,359 --> 00:21:19,240
Speaker 2: they've been playing, I think better than a lot of

467
00:21:19,240 --> 00:21:23,600
Speaker 2: people expected. In credit to the demon decks home dog time.

468
00:21:24,560 --> 00:21:27,280
Speaker 2: You got that's funny. My home dog is Syracuse.

469
00:21:27,800 --> 00:21:31,520
Speaker 4: WoT what mean? Yeah?

470
00:21:31,600 --> 00:21:34,760
Speaker 7: Yeah, Ken Pong has it Wake minus three. So all

471
00:21:34,760 --> 00:21:36,160
Speaker 7: of those things he said, I had that no written

472
00:21:36,160 --> 00:21:37,959
Speaker 7: down about the zone. You know, it's a great matchup,

473
00:21:37,960 --> 00:21:40,880
Speaker 7: like you said, but you know Syracuse their last two games,

474
00:21:41,119 --> 00:21:44,600
Speaker 7: they've gone eleven of sixty from three on average, they

475
00:21:44,600 --> 00:21:48,040
Speaker 7: shoot around thirty five percent. So like major, major, like

476
00:21:48,080 --> 00:21:49,480
Speaker 7: positive aggression coming for them.

477
00:21:49,520 --> 00:21:52,360
Speaker 2: Buddy BAM's gonna get hot soon. Yeah he's been. He's

478
00:21:52,400 --> 00:21:54,080
Speaker 2: been shooting cold pretty much all season.

479
00:21:54,320 --> 00:21:56,320
Speaker 7: You know, a lot of what Syracuse offense is is,

480
00:21:56,320 --> 00:21:59,320
Speaker 7: you know, catch and shoot threes. Well, Wake Forest is

481
00:21:59,359 --> 00:22:02,480
Speaker 7: outside the top two hundred in points per possession against

482
00:22:02,600 --> 00:22:05,040
Speaker 7: catch and shoot three pointers. So basically just a good

483
00:22:05,119 --> 00:22:07,480
Speaker 7: regression matchup for Syracuse plus with like you said, with

484
00:22:07,520 --> 00:22:08,080
Speaker 7: the zone.

485
00:22:09,320 --> 00:22:12,240
Speaker 2: Wake hasn't won at the Carrier Dome since Syracuse moved

486
00:22:12,240 --> 00:22:12,800
Speaker 2: to the ACC.

487
00:22:13,080 --> 00:22:14,919
Speaker 7: So you know, like I said, Ken Pum has it

488
00:22:14,960 --> 00:22:17,480
Speaker 7: at Wake Forest minus three, I'll take. I'll take Syracuse

489
00:22:18,040 --> 00:22:20,439
Speaker 7: anything plus money or you know, plus on the spread.

490
00:22:20,760 --> 00:22:25,000
Speaker 2: My home dog is probably gonna be Denver against or Roberts.

491
00:22:25,000 --> 00:22:28,159
Speaker 2: Denver has one of the most under i mean, one

492
00:22:28,200 --> 00:22:31,240
Speaker 2: of the best home court advantages in all of college basketball,

493
00:22:31,480 --> 00:22:34,640
Speaker 2: just because of the altitude. The travel is always annoying

494
00:22:35,440 --> 00:22:38,719
Speaker 2: and they're always undervalued at home because of it. The

495
00:22:38,760 --> 00:22:41,800
Speaker 2: worst bet in all of college basketball over the past

496
00:22:42,080 --> 00:22:45,560
Speaker 2: twenty years betting Denver on the road. So if you

497
00:22:45,600 --> 00:22:46,960
Speaker 2: just take a team and then whether a home or

498
00:22:47,040 --> 00:22:51,720
Speaker 2: road in conference, so as take all every team's conference

499
00:22:51,880 --> 00:22:56,400
Speaker 2: home games since two thousand and five. The most profitable

500
00:22:56,480 --> 00:23:00,959
Speaker 2: by far the Denver Pioneers. They're eighty fifty three and

501
00:23:01,200 --> 00:23:05,080
Speaker 2: three wow against the spread at home in conference in

502
00:23:05,280 --> 00:23:07,840
Speaker 2: if I had sixty one point six percent, covering by

503
00:23:08,000 --> 00:23:10,440
Speaker 2: two point three points per game. So I always show

504
00:23:10,520 --> 00:23:12,760
Speaker 2: value on them. They're playing better of late. They've been

505
00:23:12,800 --> 00:23:14,720
Speaker 2: on the short end of the stick on a number

506
00:23:14,720 --> 00:23:16,720
Speaker 2: of games. They've lost, like three games by two points

507
00:23:16,800 --> 00:23:21,240
Speaker 2: or less. They've lost too and overtime. They their offenses

508
00:23:21,280 --> 00:23:23,840
Speaker 2: a lot better than I thought. So, yeah, I think

509
00:23:23,840 --> 00:23:26,720
Speaker 2: that we're gonna get some value on the home puff Denver,

510
00:23:26,800 --> 00:23:29,160
Speaker 2: who just's never a bad bet. I said the same

511
00:23:29,200 --> 00:23:32,080
Speaker 2: thing about Colorado last week and unfortunately lost by the

512
00:23:32,080 --> 00:23:35,480
Speaker 2: hook on a foul one second left. But I think

513
00:23:35,520 --> 00:23:39,159
Speaker 2: we'll have a chance to cover with Denver. All right,

514
00:23:39,240 --> 00:23:43,119
Speaker 2: let's uh quickly, let's go run down and mention any

515
00:23:43,160 --> 00:23:44,960
Speaker 2: other spots she had circled. What else you got?

516
00:23:45,280 --> 00:23:49,320
Speaker 7: Yeah, let's go Northern Iowa at home against Illinois State.

517
00:23:49,520 --> 00:23:52,119
Speaker 7: It's a good spot for the Panthers to really just

518
00:23:52,160 --> 00:23:55,120
Speaker 7: flex their muscles offensively against a really, really bad defense.

519
00:23:55,560 --> 00:23:58,320
Speaker 7: Aj Green you know he missed the overtime lost Valpo

520
00:23:58,560 --> 00:24:01,040
Speaker 7: return for their past two games overtime loss to Drake

521
00:24:01,400 --> 00:24:04,719
Speaker 7: and then the win against Evansville. They're not surprisingly that

522
00:24:04,760 --> 00:24:06,840
Speaker 7: the Panthers are an incredible half court offense. You know

523
00:24:06,880 --> 00:24:09,680
Speaker 7: Ben Jacobson teams, they thrive in half court. Their top

524
00:24:09,720 --> 00:24:12,480
Speaker 7: five percent of college basketball and points per possession and

525
00:24:12,520 --> 00:24:15,000
Speaker 7: half court offense. Now, they may seem to some zone

526
00:24:15,119 --> 00:24:17,160
Speaker 7: from Illinois State, but that's okay because a few times

527
00:24:17,200 --> 00:24:19,280
Speaker 7: they've seen zone, they put up one point three points

528
00:24:19,320 --> 00:24:22,280
Speaker 7: per possession. Now, Northern i was not a great defensive team,

529
00:24:22,480 --> 00:24:25,240
Speaker 7: but they do have the best defensive rebounding percentage in

530
00:24:25,280 --> 00:24:28,800
Speaker 7: college basketball and do a fantastic job at limiting opponents

531
00:24:28,800 --> 00:24:31,920
Speaker 7: at the free throw line. Illinois State not that great

532
00:24:31,920 --> 00:24:33,920
Speaker 7: of an offense. So you know, Ken Palm has this

533
00:24:34,000 --> 00:24:37,320
Speaker 7: at Northern Iowa minus seven. Hopefully we can get that,

534
00:24:37,359 --> 00:24:39,280
Speaker 7: but I would probably play it up to minus eight.

535
00:24:40,920 --> 00:24:44,720
Speaker 2: Don't mind that. Look I'll throw out that's out Richmond

536
00:24:45,880 --> 00:24:47,600
Speaker 2: team that's tortured me this year. But I think they're

537
00:24:47,800 --> 00:24:50,199
Speaker 2: figuring some things out of late, and I think they

538
00:24:50,280 --> 00:24:52,440
Speaker 2: met I mean they're getting vcu off that like really

539
00:24:52,480 --> 00:24:56,760
Speaker 2: emotionally held on for dear life win at Davidson. This

540
00:24:56,880 --> 00:25:00,359
Speaker 2: game should be around a pick and obviously it's going

541
00:25:00,440 --> 00:25:04,159
Speaker 2: to be in Richmond for in Richmond's gym, but uh,

542
00:25:05,960 --> 00:25:07,960
Speaker 2: I think it's just a really good matchup for Richmond.

543
00:25:08,080 --> 00:25:11,640
Speaker 2: Richmond does not turn the ball over. They're top ten

544
00:25:11,680 --> 00:25:15,800
Speaker 2: I think nationally in turnover rate, which means that VCU

545
00:25:15,840 --> 00:25:17,840
Speaker 2: can't get out in transition and then the few chances

546
00:25:17,840 --> 00:25:21,280
Speaker 2: they do, Richmond is excellent defending in transition. And if

547
00:25:21,280 --> 00:25:24,320
Speaker 2: you look this VCU offense when they're not getting in transition,

548
00:25:24,520 --> 00:25:26,639
Speaker 2: and they're elite because usually it's just like a steal

549
00:25:26,880 --> 00:25:30,080
Speaker 2: kick ahead layup, you know they're kicking out for a three.

550
00:25:30,359 --> 00:25:34,320
Speaker 2: The half court offense is disgusting, and they're shooting like

551
00:25:34,400 --> 00:25:37,440
Speaker 2: forty percent from three during conference, but there's some regression coming.

552
00:25:37,480 --> 00:25:39,199
Speaker 2: I mean, if you look at that David's again, they

553
00:25:39,200 --> 00:25:43,080
Speaker 2: couldn't miss him three. It's not a great shooting team. Richmond,

554
00:25:43,080 --> 00:25:44,760
Speaker 2: by the way, is that there on the other end

555
00:25:44,800 --> 00:25:46,879
Speaker 2: of the spectrum, they're better shooting than they've been. So

556
00:25:46,920 --> 00:25:49,159
Speaker 2: I think the regression is on your side. Here. Just

557
00:25:49,200 --> 00:25:51,240
Speaker 2: a really good matchup. And I think on the offensive end,

558
00:25:51,640 --> 00:25:53,879
Speaker 2: I'm a little afraid because Richmond's like soft to me,

559
00:25:54,040 --> 00:25:56,480
Speaker 2: like VC's not. And that's the only thing that scares me.

560
00:25:56,920 --> 00:26:01,240
Speaker 2: But Mooney's motion can use like the aggressiveness VCU against them.

561
00:26:02,160 --> 00:26:04,399
Speaker 2: We've seen that in the past at times. So I

562
00:26:04,480 --> 00:26:07,280
Speaker 2: just think it's a really good matchup because Richmond, and

563
00:26:07,280 --> 00:26:09,080
Speaker 2: if you look at their press offense like ninety eight

564
00:26:09,200 --> 00:26:12,440
Speaker 2: percent tile and VCU presses at that one of the

565
00:26:12,520 --> 00:26:14,840
Speaker 2: highest rates in the country. It's like, really, they got

566
00:26:14,840 --> 00:26:18,040
Speaker 2: the ball handlers to handle this, So I think it's

567
00:26:18,040 --> 00:26:19,400
Speaker 2: a really good matchup for Richmond.

568
00:26:20,440 --> 00:26:20,680
Speaker 4: Yeah.

569
00:26:20,680 --> 00:26:23,240
Speaker 7: I had that actually circle as well, so it looks like, wow,

570
00:26:23,440 --> 00:26:25,600
Speaker 7: I'll add one thing into that.

571
00:26:25,640 --> 00:26:25,800
Speaker 5: All.

572
00:26:26,080 --> 00:26:28,440
Speaker 7: I basically had pretty much all of those notes except

573
00:26:28,440 --> 00:26:31,919
Speaker 7: for the press pressing numbers. But uh, VCU is second

574
00:26:31,960 --> 00:26:34,959
Speaker 7: and three point field goal percentage loud around twenty six percent.

575
00:26:35,119 --> 00:26:37,439
Speaker 7: But if you look at their shot quality ranks at

576
00:26:37,440 --> 00:26:40,919
Speaker 7: defending three pointers there outside the two hundreds rank and

577
00:26:40,960 --> 00:26:43,760
Speaker 7: points per possessions. So a lot of like you said,

578
00:26:43,840 --> 00:26:46,640
Speaker 7: a lot of negative regression coming for VCU and are

579
00:26:46,680 --> 00:26:48,720
Speaker 7: just a really good spots. This one is gonna be

580
00:26:48,760 --> 00:26:52,399
Speaker 7: fun late night. How about BYU and Pacific? Why not

581
00:26:52,520 --> 00:26:55,800
Speaker 7: bet the most unlucky team in college basketball versus one

582
00:26:55,800 --> 00:26:56,880
Speaker 7: of the luckiest.

583
00:26:56,560 --> 00:26:58,560
Speaker 2: One in one in thirteen against the spread? I think

584
00:26:58,600 --> 00:26:59,920
Speaker 2: now exactly yes.

585
00:27:00,080 --> 00:27:02,760
Speaker 7: So now BYU is playing tonights on the road at

586
00:27:02,800 --> 00:27:06,320
Speaker 7: Santa Clara and Pacific is traveling up to take on Portland.

587
00:27:06,520 --> 00:27:08,280
Speaker 7: So this, well, we'll see what this line could look

588
00:27:08,359 --> 00:27:10,600
Speaker 7: very different. But you know, Pacific's going to be a

589
00:27:10,600 --> 00:27:14,760
Speaker 7: double legit underdog at home. Pacific before Thursday night has

590
00:27:14,760 --> 00:27:17,200
Speaker 7: lost six straight games, but based on the shock quality,

591
00:27:17,200 --> 00:27:18,919
Speaker 7: they should be three and three in those games. They

592
00:27:18,960 --> 00:27:21,840
Speaker 7: already played BYU once this season on the road in

593
00:27:21,880 --> 00:27:24,360
Speaker 7: the beginning of January. They lost seventy three to fifty one,

594
00:27:25,000 --> 00:27:27,240
Speaker 7: but the postgame shock quality was.

595
00:27:27,200 --> 00:27:29,320
Speaker 2: BYU sixty five Pacific sixty four.

596
00:27:29,359 --> 00:27:31,840
Speaker 7: There was about a sixteen point difference in the shot

597
00:27:31,920 --> 00:27:35,520
Speaker 7: quality of three pointers versus actual points. You know, a

598
00:27:35,560 --> 00:27:38,320
Speaker 7: BYU was about eight points more on threes and Pacific

599
00:27:38,359 --> 00:27:41,040
Speaker 7: was about eight points less. So it was is crazy,

600
00:27:41,160 --> 00:27:42,160
Speaker 7: like the regression coming.

601
00:27:42,280 --> 00:27:45,520
Speaker 2: So you know, it sums up like their entire year. Yeah,

602
00:27:45,640 --> 00:27:49,560
Speaker 2: I mean BYU Ken Palm has a B fifty from

603
00:27:49,560 --> 00:27:52,760
Speaker 2: three against Pacific or something. Yeah, it's it's something crazy.

604
00:27:52,800 --> 00:27:53,680
Speaker 2: They're like three, they're out.

605
00:27:53,680 --> 00:27:55,760
Speaker 7: They're like three hundred and fiftieth I think at three

606
00:27:55,760 --> 00:27:58,920
Speaker 7: point field goal defense or percentage allowed.

607
00:27:58,680 --> 00:28:00,680
Speaker 2: In conference, so they're there. It's insane.

608
00:28:01,280 --> 00:28:03,159
Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean they obviously had that COVID pause and

609
00:28:03,160 --> 00:28:06,159
Speaker 7: then they came off it against San Diego, which you

610
00:28:06,240 --> 00:28:08,840
Speaker 7: know they lost, but in the post game again, postgame

611
00:28:08,880 --> 00:28:10,919
Speaker 7: shot quality was basically fifty to fifty.

612
00:28:11,000 --> 00:28:13,679
Speaker 2: So it's just seems like it happens every game for them.

613
00:28:13,720 --> 00:28:16,000
Speaker 7: So at some point I hope so or else I'm

614
00:28:16,000 --> 00:28:19,400
Speaker 7: going to be broke that, you know, Pacific will finally

615
00:28:19,480 --> 00:28:21,720
Speaker 7: get some of that aggression back. So I'll try and

616
00:28:21,800 --> 00:28:24,600
Speaker 7: I'll try and get it against BYU, who's I think

617
00:28:25,440 --> 00:28:28,399
Speaker 7: about three or four games above the wins above.

618
00:28:28,119 --> 00:28:32,480
Speaker 2: What they should be. Was that your last one, I

619
00:28:32,520 --> 00:28:34,800
Speaker 2: can do one more. I mean, I'll throw one out

620
00:28:34,800 --> 00:28:36,600
Speaker 2: there first. I was just gonna rattle off my last

621
00:28:36,600 --> 00:28:38,320
Speaker 2: two if you didn't have one, so one I'll throw

622
00:28:38,320 --> 00:28:41,960
Speaker 2: out UF against Houston. I think we're gonna get a

623
00:28:41,960 --> 00:28:46,120
Speaker 2: good uber area with UCF. Look, this team is pro talent.

624
00:28:46,520 --> 00:28:49,080
Speaker 2: They kind of play up and down to teams, and

625
00:28:49,120 --> 00:28:52,080
Speaker 2: we've seen them at home, like really play out. We

626
00:28:52,080 --> 00:28:55,200
Speaker 2: saw it against Michigan, we saw it against Memphis, and

627
00:28:55,920 --> 00:28:58,160
Speaker 2: you know, Houston's kind of been blowing out teams at home.

628
00:28:58,360 --> 00:29:00,239
Speaker 2: I haven't really done much on the road. I've had

629
00:29:00,320 --> 00:29:02,600
Speaker 2: some injuries which I don't think are being properly accounted

630
00:29:02,640 --> 00:29:06,960
Speaker 2: for in the market. And I think UCF can uh

631
00:29:07,440 --> 00:29:10,800
Speaker 2: can hang here at home. And here's look Houston's gonna

632
00:29:10,800 --> 00:29:12,200
Speaker 2: live on the offense glass. They're gonna get a lot

633
00:29:12,200 --> 00:29:15,400
Speaker 2: of putbacks and easy buckets. But here's what, it's a

634
00:29:15,400 --> 00:29:17,800
Speaker 2: fifth game for fifth road game for Houston. They lost

635
00:29:17,840 --> 00:29:20,560
Speaker 2: to Alabama. It's not bad. They blew out South Florida

636
00:29:20,720 --> 00:29:22,960
Speaker 2: and then they won by five at Temple and two

637
00:29:23,000 --> 00:29:26,000
Speaker 2: at Tulsa. So it's not like they've been trucking everyone

638
00:29:26,080 --> 00:29:30,080
Speaker 2: in conference. They've been rolling teams at home. The you know,

639
00:29:30,880 --> 00:29:33,280
Speaker 2: here's here's what. If you look at UCF, they're really

640
00:29:33,320 --> 00:29:38,360
Speaker 2: inefficient at attacking the rim and in transition and in

641
00:29:38,480 --> 00:29:40,680
Speaker 2: half court they're good, and you know they can shoot.

642
00:29:40,680 --> 00:29:42,200
Speaker 2: They have a lot of shooters who can get hot

643
00:29:42,240 --> 00:29:45,160
Speaker 2: and make tough shots. Well, Houston doesn't let you get

644
00:29:45,200 --> 00:29:48,280
Speaker 2: out in transition and they don't let you attack the rim.

645
00:29:48,400 --> 00:29:52,200
Speaker 2: So the way that Houston plays is like not letting

646
00:29:52,480 --> 00:29:55,880
Speaker 2: UCF shoot itself in the foot in a sense. So

647
00:29:56,120 --> 00:29:57,800
Speaker 2: I like that here. I like that it's gonna be

648
00:29:57,880 --> 00:30:01,000
Speaker 2: kind of slowed down into Houston's pace. Like people think that.

649
00:30:01,120 --> 00:30:02,800
Speaker 2: I mean, UCF wants to run and they like to

650
00:30:02,840 --> 00:30:05,920
Speaker 2: get but they're not efficient doing so. So I think

651
00:30:05,920 --> 00:30:08,000
Speaker 2: you're gonna get an inflated price in just a home

652
00:30:08,080 --> 00:30:10,960
Speaker 2: run spot for UCF, who needs this game, Like people

653
00:30:10,960 --> 00:30:14,280
Speaker 2: are talking at large and they've been disciplined. They got

654
00:30:14,280 --> 00:30:15,480
Speaker 2: to go on a run and they got to win

655
00:30:15,520 --> 00:30:18,320
Speaker 2: this game. So I think UCF will have some value

656
00:30:18,440 --> 00:30:23,320
Speaker 2: on Saturday and all my spots piece out, I'll write

657
00:30:23,320 --> 00:30:25,320
Speaker 2: a little bit more about that. What's your last one?

658
00:30:25,480 --> 00:30:28,560
Speaker 6: I'll stay in the ACC or AACS. My bad, sorry,

659
00:30:29,440 --> 00:30:32,760
Speaker 6: Wichita State Tulane. This is a good revenge spot for

660
00:30:32,800 --> 00:30:35,200
Speaker 6: the Shockers who lost at home to Tulane sixteen days

661
00:30:35,200 --> 00:30:38,400
Speaker 6: ago after leading by fourteen at half. But it's important

662
00:30:38,440 --> 00:30:41,560
Speaker 6: to mention that which DA State was without Dexter, Dennis

663
00:30:41,600 --> 00:30:44,720
Speaker 6: and Adusee to their best, to their best players, So.

664
00:30:44,680 --> 00:30:46,120
Speaker 2: This time around it's going to be a little different.

665
00:30:46,160 --> 00:30:48,240
Speaker 7: Wish Das State is not a great shooting team, but

666
00:30:48,920 --> 00:30:51,400
Speaker 7: they're an outstanding offensive rebounding team, and they get to

667
00:30:51,400 --> 00:30:53,760
Speaker 7: the free throw line at the second highest rate in

668
00:30:53,840 --> 00:30:56,280
Speaker 7: the AAC and they're making over eighty percent of their

669
00:30:56,320 --> 00:30:59,320
Speaker 7: free throws and conference play, and most importantly, that's two

670
00:30:59,320 --> 00:31:00,760
Speaker 7: areas where too Loane struggles.

671
00:31:00,800 --> 00:31:03,320
Speaker 2: Defensively. Tulane runs a ton of pick and roll.

672
00:31:03,520 --> 00:31:06,280
Speaker 7: It's you know, which really isn't gonna work against wisch

673
00:31:06,320 --> 00:31:08,720
Speaker 7: Tam because they're top five percent in college basketball and

674
00:31:08,760 --> 00:31:11,640
Speaker 7: points points per possession allowed in pick.

675
00:31:11,520 --> 00:31:12,200
Speaker 2: And roll defense.

676
00:31:12,240 --> 00:31:15,840
Speaker 7: Additionally, Tulane is thirty six and three point field goal percentage,

677
00:31:15,880 --> 00:31:18,680
Speaker 7: but which TA is forty six and defending three pointers

678
00:31:19,160 --> 00:31:22,080
Speaker 7: and Tulane one of the worst offensive rebounding teams in

679
00:31:22,120 --> 00:31:24,680
Speaker 7: the country, so they'll virtually have no second chance points.

680
00:31:24,760 --> 00:31:28,040
Speaker 7: It's a good revenge spot for which toss so ken

681
00:31:28,040 --> 00:31:30,240
Speaker 7: Palm has that which Tom minus one right now? I

682
00:31:30,240 --> 00:31:32,240
Speaker 7: would love it at that and I'd probably play anything

683
00:31:32,320 --> 00:31:34,680
Speaker 7: up to which top minus three.

684
00:31:35,040 --> 00:31:36,560
Speaker 2: My last two that I had here I think. I mean,

685
00:31:37,280 --> 00:31:39,520
Speaker 2: can we get like six with Alabama at home? I

686
00:31:39,520 --> 00:31:42,080
Speaker 2: don't know, I know, but Alabama is the ultimate Like

687
00:31:42,400 --> 00:31:44,120
Speaker 2: you play them as a dog. They're just a high

688
00:31:44,160 --> 00:31:46,760
Speaker 2: variants team. And we've seen them lose to Georgia and

689
00:31:46,800 --> 00:31:49,400
Speaker 2: we've seen them beat like Zaga and Houston, and they're

690
00:31:49,400 --> 00:31:51,480
Speaker 2: gonna shoot out of threes. They have some positive shooting

691
00:31:51,520 --> 00:31:54,040
Speaker 2: Russia coming up, and they're like twenty nine percentile on

692
00:31:54,120 --> 00:31:56,560
Speaker 2: unguarded jumpers. They're shooting. And if you look at some

693
00:31:56,640 --> 00:31:58,760
Speaker 2: of these guys like Gurle and quinterly like they're shooting

694
00:31:58,800 --> 00:32:03,880
Speaker 2: well below, they're averages. I also think that Baylor, you know,

695
00:32:03,920 --> 00:32:07,240
Speaker 2: their defense has been a bit fortunate in regards to

696
00:32:07,320 --> 00:32:08,840
Speaker 2: perimeter defense. That's how you have to beat there and

697
00:32:08,880 --> 00:32:10,160
Speaker 2: you have to be able to shoot on the perimeter.

698
00:32:10,280 --> 00:32:13,640
Speaker 2: So after a home loss to Georgia, it's like, this

699
00:32:13,720 --> 00:32:15,240
Speaker 2: is I mean a road loss to Georgia, this is

700
00:32:15,520 --> 00:32:18,840
Speaker 2: you're getting Baylor at home. This is the spot you

701
00:32:18,880 --> 00:32:22,040
Speaker 2: probably want to back the tide. The other one Nevada

702
00:32:22,080 --> 00:32:23,960
Speaker 2: gainst UTAs State. I still think Uta State has a

703
00:32:23,960 --> 00:32:26,280
Speaker 2: lot of issues with brock Miller out. You know, they're

704
00:32:26,320 --> 00:32:29,720
Speaker 2: not fully healthy yet and they've shown that and they

705
00:32:29,880 --> 00:32:31,320
Speaker 2: I was on that the other night, but mainly that

706
00:32:31,400 --> 00:32:33,320
Speaker 2: was just because San Diego State was like their third

707
00:32:33,360 --> 00:32:37,120
Speaker 2: game in five days. They're coming off COVID like in altitude.

708
00:32:37,480 --> 00:32:39,880
Speaker 2: I think that was more about San Diego State. Nevada

709
00:32:39,920 --> 00:32:42,920
Speaker 2: at home, they just lost Washington to fracture their seven

710
00:32:42,960 --> 00:32:45,920
Speaker 2: foot to fractured fingers. He's like their their post presence

711
00:32:45,960 --> 00:32:48,360
Speaker 2: can blockshot. You won't really miss him here. I mean

712
00:32:48,360 --> 00:32:51,640
Speaker 2: he could you know, like Utah State's not like going

713
00:32:51,680 --> 00:32:55,160
Speaker 2: into the post and I don't think it's a huge loss.

714
00:32:55,200 --> 00:32:57,200
Speaker 2: You have another seven footer and will Baker throw breaker

715
00:32:57,400 --> 00:32:59,520
Speaker 2: throw Baker, I should say you can bring in you.

716
00:33:00,040 --> 00:33:01,560
Speaker 2: It was really excited to get that win. I think

717
00:33:01,560 --> 00:33:03,120
Speaker 2: this could be a spot for Nevada. I like their

718
00:33:03,160 --> 00:33:07,120
Speaker 2: advantage on the outside with an undermanned Utah State perimeter.

719
00:33:09,720 --> 00:33:13,080
Speaker 2: And yeah, it looks like Rutgers. It looks like Nebraska's

720
00:33:13,080 --> 00:33:16,160
Speaker 2: getting blown out by Wisconsin. This could be the spot

721
00:33:16,200 --> 00:33:19,440
Speaker 2: Nebraska against Rutgers. Rutgers has done nothing on the road.

722
00:33:20,040 --> 00:33:24,280
Speaker 2: Is this the time that Nebraska cracks through? And Indiana?

723
00:33:24,840 --> 00:33:28,240
Speaker 2: Where's Indiana going on Saturday? Maryland? They played Maryland, I'm

724
00:33:28,240 --> 00:33:31,600
Speaker 2: believe so yep. Oh, Indiana is eight and one against

725
00:33:31,640 --> 00:33:33,680
Speaker 2: the spread on the road in conference places last time.

726
00:33:34,040 --> 00:33:36,200
Speaker 2: So we'll see if they can get it done. All right,

727
00:33:36,680 --> 00:33:40,080
Speaker 2: that'll do it for Saturday. Good stuff there. Let's bring

728
00:33:40,120 --> 00:33:43,040
Speaker 2: in Blake and we'll talk to some sec.

729
00:33:43,800 --> 00:33:46,960
Speaker 1: From the Southern to the Summit League, the MIAK and

730
00:33:47,040 --> 00:33:50,440
Speaker 1: the Missouri Valley. There are over three hundred and fifty

731
00:33:50,520 --> 00:33:57,160
Speaker 1: Division one programs, so let's get acquainted. This is Conference confidential.

732
00:34:00,720 --> 00:34:03,840
Speaker 2: Friend of the podcast, Blake Lovell. Some of you may

733
00:34:03,880 --> 00:34:06,560
Speaker 2: know him from previous years when we bring him him

734
00:34:06,600 --> 00:34:10,840
Speaker 2: to talk SEC covers the SEC affiliated with Blue Ribbon yearbook.

735
00:34:10,880 --> 00:34:13,160
Speaker 2: I'll let him plug some things later in the show.

736
00:34:13,280 --> 00:34:14,560
Speaker 2: Thanks for joining us, Blake Hli.

737
00:34:15,239 --> 00:34:17,359
Speaker 5: Yeah, doing well, my friend, Thanks as always for having

738
00:34:17,360 --> 00:34:17,680
Speaker 5: me on.

739
00:34:18,160 --> 00:34:21,960
Speaker 2: Yeah. Excited to talk some SEC because it's one of

740
00:34:21,960 --> 00:34:25,320
Speaker 2: the most exciting, if and if not the best conference

741
00:34:25,360 --> 00:34:28,080
Speaker 2: top to bottom in off college basketball. With a couple

742
00:34:28,120 --> 00:34:31,760
Speaker 2: of true contenders. We're going to kind of talk through tears.

743
00:34:31,880 --> 00:34:35,000
Speaker 2: And you're if I recall correctly, you're in Nashville and

744
00:34:35,040 --> 00:34:37,520
Speaker 2: you went to Austin p Right, you're a governor.

745
00:34:37,920 --> 00:34:40,800
Speaker 5: Yes, that's it. I'm a gove. Let's go pee. So

746
00:34:40,920 --> 00:34:41,400
Speaker 5: you don't have it.

747
00:34:41,400 --> 00:34:43,040
Speaker 2: You don't have a team. You have a team? Right?

748
00:34:43,800 --> 00:34:46,439
Speaker 5: No? Not really? Yeah?

749
00:34:46,520 --> 00:34:50,239
Speaker 2: Good, But let's be like unbiased opinions around here. Let's

750
00:34:50,239 --> 00:34:54,040
Speaker 2: start at the very top with the two clear contenders

751
00:34:54,520 --> 00:34:58,480
Speaker 2: in Kentucky and Auburn. We've seen Kentucky play a couple

752
00:34:58,520 --> 00:35:01,040
Speaker 2: of games unfortunately when they've lost a couple of guys,

753
00:35:01,040 --> 00:35:02,359
Speaker 2: and if you look at their on off splits, they're

754
00:35:02,360 --> 00:35:06,120
Speaker 2: pretty drastic. But when both these teams are healthy, they're

755
00:35:06,120 --> 00:35:10,360
Speaker 2: clear national title contenders. Do you see either one having

756
00:35:10,440 --> 00:35:12,560
Speaker 2: a higher ceiling or one that's more flaw than the other,

757
00:35:12,640 --> 00:35:14,840
Speaker 2: or does it just come down to draw in variants

758
00:35:15,120 --> 00:35:16,760
Speaker 2: once you get into the bracket.

759
00:35:17,120 --> 00:35:19,360
Speaker 5: I think that's it with these two. You know, I

760
00:35:19,440 --> 00:35:22,239
Speaker 5: know Auburn's number one right now, but and look, we

761
00:35:22,280 --> 00:35:24,239
Speaker 5: could play this with a lot of different games over

762
00:35:24,280 --> 00:35:26,400
Speaker 5: the years, I'm sure, but it's like, how does that

763
00:35:26,440 --> 00:35:28,760
Speaker 5: game play out, you know, at full strength? For Kentucky,

764
00:35:28,800 --> 00:35:30,640
Speaker 5: I mean they got off to a great start in

765
00:35:30,680 --> 00:35:33,759
Speaker 5: that one, and I thought that Kentucky at times looked

766
00:35:33,880 --> 00:35:36,080
Speaker 5: just as good as Auburn. And so I think these

767
00:35:36,080 --> 00:35:38,360
Speaker 5: are these are two teams, like you said, it's going

768
00:35:38,440 --> 00:35:40,359
Speaker 5: to be all about to draw and what they get

769
00:35:40,360 --> 00:35:43,720
Speaker 5: from a road to the to the Final four type scenario,

770
00:35:43,800 --> 00:35:46,440
Speaker 5: they're just I mean, they have what you want, right,

771
00:35:46,480 --> 00:35:50,360
Speaker 5: Like they have two superstars. And I always talk about that,

772
00:35:50,440 --> 00:35:52,640
Speaker 5: right it's like once you get if you have that

773
00:35:52,680 --> 00:35:55,680
Speaker 5: guy that can basically if you're not playing well, if

774
00:35:55,719 --> 00:35:57,719
Speaker 5: you're not at your best, you have that one guy

775
00:35:57,719 --> 00:35:59,960
Speaker 5: that can sort of put you exactly where you need

776
00:36:00,080 --> 00:36:01,759
Speaker 5: to be, put you on their back. Now, I know

777
00:36:01,800 --> 00:36:05,200
Speaker 5: for Jampari Smith for Auburn, that didn't happen against Missouri,

778
00:36:05,239 --> 00:36:07,399
Speaker 5: but yet Katie Johnson stepped up and he's been someone

779
00:36:07,400 --> 00:36:09,239
Speaker 5: else that's kind of stayed in that role for Auburn too.

780
00:36:09,280 --> 00:36:12,239
Speaker 5: But I mean, Oscar Sibway, I don't know what else

781
00:36:12,280 --> 00:36:15,160
Speaker 5: you're saying about this guy. He's just I keep saying,

782
00:36:15,400 --> 00:36:17,160
Speaker 5: I've not seen a guy like this in terms of

783
00:36:17,200 --> 00:36:21,680
Speaker 5: just animalistic instincts, right Like, this guy has an awareness

784
00:36:22,480 --> 00:36:24,120
Speaker 5: I just I have not seen in a long time.

785
00:36:24,320 --> 00:36:27,320
Speaker 5: And the way he's playing right now for Kentucky is

786
00:36:27,360 --> 00:36:30,319
Speaker 5: pretty remarkable. And so when you have two guys like that,

787
00:36:30,320 --> 00:36:32,440
Speaker 5: that's a great start. But then you've got all these

788
00:36:32,760 --> 00:36:35,719
Speaker 5: high level talents around them, and I just think it

789
00:36:35,800 --> 00:36:37,919
Speaker 5: sets up really well for both these two teams. They're

790
00:36:37,960 --> 00:36:40,120
Speaker 5: all they're both starting to just really come together at

791
00:36:40,160 --> 00:36:42,239
Speaker 5: the right time, and so I think that they are.

792
00:36:42,440 --> 00:36:45,080
Speaker 5: They are very close together, and I think they both

793
00:36:45,080 --> 00:36:46,879
Speaker 5: have a chance to make a deep run.

794
00:36:47,719 --> 00:36:50,239
Speaker 2: Yeah fa I mean, Sheba is a cheap code in

795
00:36:50,239 --> 00:36:52,319
Speaker 2: a way in that if you have an af shooting night,

796
00:36:52,360 --> 00:36:54,600
Speaker 2: he can grab you know, twenty to twenty five of

797
00:36:54,600 --> 00:36:57,080
Speaker 2: your misses. But I think the thing that separates this

798
00:36:57,200 --> 00:37:00,320
Speaker 2: Kentucky team from some of the previous count teams that

799
00:37:00,360 --> 00:37:03,160
Speaker 2: we've seen is they actually have shooting. So they have

800
00:37:03,239 --> 00:37:06,200
Speaker 2: guys who can make threes now stretch the floor. So

801
00:37:06,680 --> 00:37:08,319
Speaker 2: that's exciting to see. Yeah, I don't think there's any

802
00:37:08,400 --> 00:37:13,160
Speaker 2: there's much argument on those two being national title contenders,

803
00:37:13,200 --> 00:37:16,400
Speaker 2: certainly for the final four. The next tier of teams

804
00:37:16,440 --> 00:37:19,120
Speaker 2: in the SEC gets a little more interesting. We can

805
00:37:19,200 --> 00:37:24,560
Speaker 2: throw Tennessee, you know, Arkansas, Mississippi State, LSU, Alabama just

806
00:37:24,800 --> 00:37:29,759
Speaker 2: teams that you know, have shown flashes, but there are

807
00:37:29,840 --> 00:37:32,680
Speaker 2: clear flaws that might hold them back. Right. You talk Tennessee,

808
00:37:32,719 --> 00:37:35,960
Speaker 2: it's the offense at times. You talk LSU, it's also

809
00:37:36,040 --> 00:37:40,759
Speaker 2: the offense at times. Alabama, it's it's the defense. And

810
00:37:40,800 --> 00:37:42,719
Speaker 2: I think they really miss some you know, Primo and

811
00:37:42,880 --> 00:37:45,680
Speaker 2: Jones from last year a lot more than people think.

812
00:37:46,800 --> 00:37:50,279
Speaker 2: You know, Mississippi State's defense is questionable as well. Is

813
00:37:50,320 --> 00:37:52,839
Speaker 2: there one of these these teams in that next tier

814
00:37:53,080 --> 00:37:56,240
Speaker 2: that you think has a ceiling of you know, making

815
00:37:56,239 --> 00:37:58,080
Speaker 2: a legit run in March and they just you know,

816
00:37:58,320 --> 00:38:00,279
Speaker 2: they just need to figure a little thing out and

817
00:38:00,280 --> 00:38:03,279
Speaker 2: they're they're really close, you know, Is there one of

818
00:38:03,280 --> 00:38:04,960
Speaker 2: those teams that you believe in more than the others.

819
00:38:06,160 --> 00:38:09,200
Speaker 5: The only I think it's LSU. And the only issue

820
00:38:09,239 --> 00:38:12,200
Speaker 5: I have in saying that is, like you said, it's

821
00:38:12,320 --> 00:38:15,120
Speaker 5: such a drastic change from what we've been used to LSU,

822
00:38:15,200 --> 00:38:17,640
Speaker 5: where it's they could look like the number one offensive

823
00:38:17,640 --> 00:38:20,200
Speaker 5: team in the country. We get they haven't played, you know,

824
00:38:20,360 --> 00:38:22,319
Speaker 5: much defense over the past couple of years, but now

825
00:38:22,320 --> 00:38:26,480
Speaker 5: it's like it's flipped where they are so good on defense,

826
00:38:26,520 --> 00:38:28,719
Speaker 5: and I mean, it is remarkable. I would have if

827
00:38:28,719 --> 00:38:31,200
Speaker 5: you'd asked me a thousand times if I thought this

828
00:38:31,560 --> 00:38:33,839
Speaker 5: LSU team is going to be just elite as they

829
00:38:33,880 --> 00:38:36,440
Speaker 5: are defensively, I would have never been able to guess this. Like,

830
00:38:36,480 --> 00:38:39,240
Speaker 5: it's just it's what we've seen right from Will Wade's teams.

831
00:38:39,280 --> 00:38:41,000
Speaker 5: Is you knew going in like he was kind of

832
00:38:41,000 --> 00:38:43,560
Speaker 5: a lotted as a defensive coach, but he just could

833
00:38:43,600 --> 00:38:45,399
Speaker 5: never sort of get it out of that group he had.

834
00:38:45,520 --> 00:38:49,719
Speaker 5: And now he's getting it, man, And it's just it's remarkable.

835
00:38:49,760 --> 00:38:53,080
Speaker 5: But at the same time, offensively they leave a lot

836
00:38:53,160 --> 00:38:55,279
Speaker 5: to be desired. But I think it's because they're so

837
00:38:55,400 --> 00:38:58,160
Speaker 5: good defensively. And let's point this out too, they haven't

838
00:38:58,200 --> 00:39:00,480
Speaker 5: had Xavier Pinson for a little while. Yeah, you know,

839
00:39:00,480 --> 00:39:03,399
Speaker 5: he's a good offense. Yeah, days two, and it's like

840
00:39:03,680 --> 00:39:05,960
Speaker 5: when those two guys are on the floor there they

841
00:39:06,000 --> 00:39:07,920
Speaker 5: can be a good offensive team. I don't think they're

842
00:39:07,920 --> 00:39:10,239
Speaker 5: ever going to be a great offensive team, but when

843
00:39:10,520 --> 00:39:13,440
Speaker 5: they're not, though, it's like many it's a fall. And

844
00:39:13,560 --> 00:39:15,600
Speaker 5: so I think it's it can be a little deceiving

845
00:39:15,640 --> 00:39:17,040
Speaker 5: to look at their record right now and say, well,

846
00:39:17,080 --> 00:39:19,040
Speaker 5: they're four and four in the SEC. They lost three

847
00:39:19,040 --> 00:39:21,360
Speaker 5: in a row before you know that game gets sexist,

848
00:39:21,360 --> 00:39:24,000
Speaker 5: A and M. But if they can get everyone healthy,

849
00:39:24,360 --> 00:39:26,720
Speaker 5: they got a really favorable back half of the schedule.

850
00:39:27,280 --> 00:39:29,200
Speaker 5: They played the toughest first half I think of anyone

851
00:39:29,239 --> 00:39:31,040
Speaker 5: in the league. And so now it's like I think

852
00:39:31,120 --> 00:39:33,799
Speaker 5: LSU can make up some grounds here and ultimately I

853
00:39:33,840 --> 00:39:36,480
Speaker 5: think they probably are the third best team, you know, Tennessee.

854
00:39:37,000 --> 00:39:39,160
Speaker 5: Like you said, I mean, they're also kind of like

855
00:39:39,280 --> 00:39:41,880
Speaker 5: LSU where they're great on defense. But man, I've just

856
00:39:42,080 --> 00:39:44,400
Speaker 5: I've seen this so many times Rick Barnes teams unfortunately,

857
00:39:44,440 --> 00:39:47,160
Speaker 5: where it's like you see some of the bad offense

858
00:39:47,200 --> 00:39:48,879
Speaker 5: they play and you're just like, man, is that gonna

859
00:39:48,920 --> 00:39:51,000
Speaker 5: be what gets them? Because they got the horses at

860
00:39:51,000 --> 00:39:53,320
Speaker 5: the time. Getting Taylor is really good. You know, Vescovi's

861
00:39:53,320 --> 00:39:56,000
Speaker 5: played a lot better, but I just I still wonder

862
00:39:56,000 --> 00:39:58,680
Speaker 5: about them. And then you look at teams like Alabama.

863
00:39:58,719 --> 00:40:00,719
Speaker 5: I man, I'm I just don't know what to say

864
00:40:00,719 --> 00:40:03,640
Speaker 5: about Alabama. I think that they they have the widest

865
00:40:03,760 --> 00:40:05,680
Speaker 5: range of any team in the SEC in terms of

866
00:40:05,719 --> 00:40:08,360
Speaker 5: what they can accomplish and what they cannot accomplish in

867
00:40:08,400 --> 00:40:12,200
Speaker 5: terms of beacon Zaga lose to Georgia. What else do

868
00:40:12,239 --> 00:40:12,759
Speaker 5: you say, right?

869
00:40:12,800 --> 00:40:13,000
Speaker 2: I mean?

870
00:40:13,600 --> 00:40:16,400
Speaker 5: And then you know those three teams like Arkansas, Misissippi State, A,

871
00:40:16,440 --> 00:40:19,040
Speaker 5: and M I think they're all good teams. I still

872
00:40:19,040 --> 00:40:21,080
Speaker 5: don't know what the ceiling is for them, but I'd

873
00:40:21,120 --> 00:40:24,880
Speaker 5: probably put Arkansas has just taking advantage of a decent

874
00:40:24,880 --> 00:40:27,200
Speaker 5: schedule right now. I think we learn about Arkansas a

875
00:40:27,200 --> 00:40:29,439
Speaker 5: lot more over the next month, because then they start

876
00:40:29,440 --> 00:40:32,560
Speaker 5: playing the Kentucky's, the Auburns, the Tennessee's, those kind of teams.

877
00:40:33,200 --> 00:40:35,080
Speaker 5: So I'd probably put LSU third, though.

878
00:40:35,280 --> 00:40:39,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, amazing LSU. Last year, per KEMPOM finished fifth on

879
00:40:39,120 --> 00:40:42,200
Speaker 2: offense and adjusted efficiency, one hundred and twenty fourth on defense.

880
00:40:42,480 --> 00:40:44,960
Speaker 2: This year they're one hundred and thirty third on defense

881
00:40:45,000 --> 00:40:48,920
Speaker 2: and first on in defense. A complete right from last year. Yeah,

882
00:40:48,920 --> 00:40:50,680
Speaker 2: that's wild, but yeah, their offensive numbers are going to

883
00:40:50,760 --> 00:40:52,960
Speaker 2: definitely take a hit with pencing out. You know, they

884
00:40:53,000 --> 00:40:54,600
Speaker 2: need him on the ball, and then you know he's

885
00:40:54,600 --> 00:40:57,360
Speaker 2: important defensively as well, and Days is shooting. So I

886
00:40:57,360 --> 00:40:59,759
Speaker 2: don't think that their offensive numbers aren't as bad. You're

887
00:40:59,800 --> 00:41:01,839
Speaker 2: gonna kind of be deflated because of those two guys

888
00:41:01,840 --> 00:41:04,360
Speaker 2: being out. So, by the way, any thoughts on Florida

889
00:41:04,400 --> 00:41:05,680
Speaker 2: is Florida is just a lost cause.

890
00:41:06,480 --> 00:41:08,520
Speaker 5: I mean, look, if Colin Castleton is not on the floor,

891
00:41:08,760 --> 00:41:11,440
Speaker 5: I don't see how they and it's just like we

892
00:41:11,480 --> 00:41:13,239
Speaker 5: don't know, I guess how long he's gonna be out.

893
00:41:13,280 --> 00:41:15,799
Speaker 5: But if Florida's put themselves in a position now where

894
00:41:15,800 --> 00:41:17,719
Speaker 5: they're three and five in the league and it's like

895
00:41:18,320 --> 00:41:21,239
Speaker 5: Colin Caston even if he's out, like their next three

896
00:41:21,320 --> 00:41:24,279
Speaker 5: SEC games. I was looking at this earlier Missouri Ole

897
00:41:24,360 --> 00:41:27,239
Speaker 5: miss Georgia. They've unfortunately put themselves in a point where

898
00:41:27,239 --> 00:41:28,880
Speaker 5: they have to win all three of those and I

899
00:41:28,920 --> 00:41:30,600
Speaker 5: just don't know if they're gonna do that, especially in

900
00:41:30,640 --> 00:41:33,560
Speaker 5: Missouri right like Missouri's I mean you could argue they're

901
00:41:33,760 --> 00:41:35,960
Speaker 5: much improved. Yeah, like they are a very Vicey team.

902
00:41:36,000 --> 00:41:37,640
Speaker 5: That's a good way to put it. Like you're playing

903
00:41:37,640 --> 00:41:39,839
Speaker 5: at Mazoo and they almost beat Auburn the other night.

904
00:41:39,880 --> 00:41:42,359
Speaker 5: So it's like, I think Florida is gonna wind up

905
00:41:42,360 --> 00:41:44,799
Speaker 5: putting itself too far behind. I guess the eight ball.

906
00:41:45,200 --> 00:41:48,840
Speaker 5: For lack of a better phrase, I just even with Castleton,

907
00:41:49,120 --> 00:41:51,200
Speaker 5: I didn't think the ceiling for this team was that high.

908
00:41:51,640 --> 00:41:54,719
Speaker 5: And without him, I just yeah, I think they've got

909
00:41:54,760 --> 00:41:56,600
Speaker 5: a they're gonna be to me if they're if they're

910
00:41:56,600 --> 00:41:59,040
Speaker 5: Indian civil a tournament, they wind up getting there. I

911
00:41:59,040 --> 00:42:00,440
Speaker 5: think they're one of those teams where looking at and

912
00:42:00,440 --> 00:42:02,759
Speaker 5: saying they're either last four in or last four out.

913
00:42:02,760 --> 00:42:06,200
Speaker 2: Probably yep. As far as a team that you know,

914
00:42:06,239 --> 00:42:08,960
Speaker 2: since this is a betting podcast, if there's a team

915
00:42:09,000 --> 00:42:13,320
Speaker 2: that might be undervalue down the stretch that better should

916
00:42:13,360 --> 00:42:18,239
Speaker 2: look at, is it potentially Vanderbilt if they get you

917
00:42:18,280 --> 00:42:20,880
Speaker 2: know a few of their guys back because they've been playing.

918
00:42:21,840 --> 00:42:24,520
Speaker 2: They two of their you know, Robbins, I believe he

919
00:42:24,520 --> 00:42:27,000
Speaker 2: hasn't played at all, right, and I think he's still

920
00:42:27,000 --> 00:42:29,799
Speaker 2: going to come back at one point this year. They

921
00:42:29,840 --> 00:42:33,040
Speaker 2: also have been playing for the past and I mean

922
00:42:33,239 --> 00:42:36,239
Speaker 2: Rodney Chapman's only played like five games this year, and

923
00:42:36,239 --> 00:42:38,000
Speaker 2: they've they've looked a lot better with him in it,

924
00:42:38,120 --> 00:42:41,359
Speaker 2: So you know you have some talent there, you get

925
00:42:41,400 --> 00:42:43,479
Speaker 2: those guys back down the stretch. Is that a team

926
00:42:43,480 --> 00:42:47,120
Speaker 2: that could, you know, make some noise later in the year.

927
00:42:48,080 --> 00:42:51,080
Speaker 5: I think in that scenario, yes, And I think Chapman's

928
00:42:51,120 --> 00:42:53,719
Speaker 5: a big part of that, because I mean that they

929
00:42:53,800 --> 00:42:56,040
Speaker 5: do like even those games he's played. You know, it's

930
00:42:56,040 --> 00:42:57,880
Speaker 5: not many, but you could tell like they're a different

931
00:42:57,880 --> 00:42:59,400
Speaker 5: team when he's on the floor. He just brings some

932
00:42:59,440 --> 00:43:01,880
Speaker 5: elements that they don't have, and that takes away some

933
00:43:01,920 --> 00:43:04,560
Speaker 5: of the pressure from Scottie Pippen. But I'm gonna go

934
00:43:04,600 --> 00:43:06,080
Speaker 5: back to what I said a minute ago, Man, and

935
00:43:06,120 --> 00:43:08,239
Speaker 5: I just I don't know how much it's gonna hold,

936
00:43:08,239 --> 00:43:11,359
Speaker 5: but I think Missouri has gotten so much better from

937
00:43:11,360 --> 00:43:13,759
Speaker 5: where they were a month ago. Yes, you still have

938
00:43:13,840 --> 00:43:15,319
Speaker 5: kind of that game that you had an Arkansas where

939
00:43:15,320 --> 00:43:17,040
Speaker 5: they lose by forty four, and when you're a bad

940
00:43:17,040 --> 00:43:19,960
Speaker 5: offensive team, that can happen sometimes. But I think, at

941
00:43:20,000 --> 00:43:22,239
Speaker 5: least at home, I think Missouri is a team. If

942
00:43:22,280 --> 00:43:25,240
Speaker 5: I'm looking at it from a betting standpoint, anytime Missouri

943
00:43:25,280 --> 00:43:28,279
Speaker 5: plays in Columbia. I'm always going to be intrigued by

944
00:43:28,280 --> 00:43:29,959
Speaker 5: that because you know, more often than not, they're probably

945
00:43:29,960 --> 00:43:32,960
Speaker 5: gonna be the underdog. But they have proven I mean,

946
00:43:33,000 --> 00:43:35,400
Speaker 5: they are playing pretty well at home, and you know,

947
00:43:35,440 --> 00:43:37,680
Speaker 5: they've beaten Vamba there and they almost quite frankly, I

948
00:43:37,719 --> 00:43:39,160
Speaker 5: thought they should have bet Auburn. I thought they all

949
00:43:39,160 --> 00:43:41,880
Speaker 5: played Alburn and you know, so that's a team that

950
00:43:42,120 --> 00:43:44,360
Speaker 5: I would really look at and say, if they continue

951
00:43:44,400 --> 00:43:47,440
Speaker 5: on this sort of trajectory, I find them very intriguing

952
00:43:47,440 --> 00:43:48,080
Speaker 5: the rest of the way.

953
00:43:48,760 --> 00:43:51,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I agree. That's the team I've been backing

954
00:43:51,239 --> 00:43:53,839
Speaker 2: at home with pretty inflated spreads. And to go back

955
00:43:53,840 --> 00:43:55,520
Speaker 2: to the vantboo point, Yeah, I mean we saw earlier

956
00:43:55,560 --> 00:43:58,000
Speaker 2: this year without Robins, just with Chapman in the lineup.

957
00:43:58,280 --> 00:44:00,319
Speaker 2: I mean, it's a team that beat BYU on a

958
00:44:00,360 --> 00:44:03,160
Speaker 2: neutral court, and then they went on the road to

959
00:44:03,280 --> 00:44:07,839
Speaker 2: Arkansas and beat Arkansas, so you know you saw some

960
00:44:07,880 --> 00:44:11,000
Speaker 2: of the potential there, and that was without Robbins. I

961
00:44:11,000 --> 00:44:14,880
Speaker 2: guess I'll just I'm gonna make you pick one. You

962
00:44:14,920 --> 00:44:17,200
Speaker 2: can either you can take a cop out, you can

963
00:44:17,280 --> 00:44:20,640
Speaker 2: say you can take you can take two different teams

964
00:44:20,680 --> 00:44:22,120
Speaker 2: or we could take the same one who ends up

965
00:44:22,120 --> 00:44:27,319
Speaker 2: winning the SEC Tournament and WITHTC tournament and then who

966
00:44:27,360 --> 00:44:30,960
Speaker 2: goes the Furthest in the NCAA Tournament. Obviously there's a

967
00:44:31,000 --> 00:44:31,680
Speaker 2: ton of arrands, but.

968
00:44:31,760 --> 00:44:36,279
Speaker 5: Just for fun, yeah, I think I just managed something

969
00:44:36,280 --> 00:44:38,080
Speaker 5: about this Auburn team. I think that they are just

970
00:44:39,280 --> 00:44:41,280
Speaker 5: that's gonna be fun if we do get Auburn Kentucky

971
00:44:41,840 --> 00:44:45,239
Speaker 5: in the SEC Tournament finals. So I'll pick Auburn just

972
00:44:45,239 --> 00:44:47,120
Speaker 5: because you know, if they're the number one team right now.

973
00:44:47,160 --> 00:44:50,520
Speaker 5: And now I have a hard time not saying Kentucky's

974
00:44:50,560 --> 00:44:52,640
Speaker 5: the team that goes the Furthest because I think that

975
00:44:53,000 --> 00:44:54,680
Speaker 5: as we know, as you said, there's there's so much

976
00:44:54,760 --> 00:44:57,520
Speaker 5: variance there and with matchups and such. But you know,

977
00:44:57,560 --> 00:44:59,600
Speaker 5: if Kentucky's full strength, and that's the issue, I think

978
00:44:59,600 --> 00:45:01,839
Speaker 5: we running to Kentucky is like, man, you know, we

979
00:45:01,880 --> 00:45:04,680
Speaker 5: saw what they did against Tennessee and you're like, oh my, Like,

980
00:45:04,760 --> 00:45:07,520
Speaker 5: if they if they're on, look the hell out, because

981
00:45:07,560 --> 00:45:10,040
Speaker 5: they can they can really, you know, turn it up

982
00:45:10,080 --> 00:45:13,840
Speaker 5: into that level. And so I guess to have some

983
00:45:13,880 --> 00:45:16,400
Speaker 5: fun with it, I'll say Kentucky just to give you

984
00:45:16,480 --> 00:45:18,960
Speaker 5: a different answer on both. But I think as we

985
00:45:19,000 --> 00:45:20,840
Speaker 5: said earlier, I think both have a really good shot

986
00:45:20,880 --> 00:45:23,160
Speaker 5: to go a long way and it'll all depend on

987
00:45:23,200 --> 00:45:23,680
Speaker 5: the matchup.

988
00:45:23,719 --> 00:45:26,799
Speaker 2: So yeah, the two losses that Kentucky has taken an

989
00:45:26,800 --> 00:45:29,520
Speaker 2: SEC play Auburn, you know they were they end up

990
00:45:29,560 --> 00:45:32,560
Speaker 2: being shorthanded and then Lsu, I mean they'd end up

991
00:45:32,600 --> 00:45:35,360
Speaker 2: being super short handed. They lose two of their guards

992
00:45:35,360 --> 00:45:37,360
Speaker 2: to injury. You know, Shebo was in foul trouble in

993
00:45:37,360 --> 00:45:39,480
Speaker 2: the first half. That's I think that's the key for

994
00:45:39,560 --> 00:45:43,000
Speaker 2: Kentucky is you have to and cal part is very

995
00:45:43,320 --> 00:45:45,319
Speaker 2: very conservative in this sense, like you have to make

996
00:45:45,360 --> 00:45:48,440
Speaker 2: sure that Chibe doesn't pick up like two thousand in

997
00:45:48,440 --> 00:45:52,000
Speaker 2: the first three minutes like a tournament game. And then

998
00:45:52,239 --> 00:45:54,239
Speaker 2: you know, cal Wi you like sit him for like

999
00:45:54,320 --> 00:45:56,000
Speaker 2: fifteen minutes to make sure you can play the whole

1000
00:45:56,000 --> 00:45:57,600
Speaker 2: second half. But and then all of a sudden you're

1001
00:45:57,640 --> 00:46:00,440
Speaker 2: down eight, and that's the last thing you want. Tournament

1002
00:46:00,440 --> 00:46:03,920
Speaker 2: game a team another team has life. And then I

1003
00:46:03,960 --> 00:46:06,800
Speaker 2: think Grady is the key. I mean, if he's hitting

1004
00:46:06,800 --> 00:46:11,359
Speaker 2: his shots, that that offense is just on another level. Well,

1005
00:46:11,800 --> 00:46:15,200
Speaker 2: appreciate you joining us as always. Have you back closer

1006
00:46:15,239 --> 00:46:19,760
Speaker 2: to the SEC tournament. Do you want to plug anything

1007
00:46:19,800 --> 00:46:21,440
Speaker 2: and then let everyone know where they can find you.

1008
00:46:22,200 --> 00:46:24,960
Speaker 5: Yeah, I appreciate it. Man, Like you said, covering all

1009
00:46:25,000 --> 00:46:27,480
Speaker 5: the sec you can find all our videos and stuff

1010
00:46:27,719 --> 00:46:31,600
Speaker 5: Southeastern fourteen dot com. Check that out there. And yeah

1011
00:46:31,680 --> 00:46:34,680
Speaker 5: on Twitter, tweeting away at the Blake level.

1012
00:46:35,160 --> 00:46:37,960
Speaker 2: That's the Blake level, right, not the the one and

1013
00:46:38,040 --> 00:46:42,440
Speaker 2: only right T T. Blake l O V E l L.

1014
00:46:43,120 --> 00:46:47,040
Speaker 2: Thanks for joining us as always, and uh, enjoy the hoops.

1015
00:46:46,760 --> 00:46:48,680
Speaker 5: This weekend sounds great, my friend.

1016
00:46:48,680 --> 00:46:52,920
Speaker 2: Thanks all right, thanks Blake. Let's now talk some Friday

1017
00:46:52,960 --> 00:46:55,359
Speaker 2: night hoops and our Friday night six pack.

1018
00:46:56,920 --> 00:47:00,920
Speaker 1: Six guys, six picks. It's a college, it's a weekend

1019
00:47:01,040 --> 00:47:01,640
Speaker 1: six pack.

1020
00:47:04,600 --> 00:47:07,160
Speaker 3: Get it right, get it right.

1021
00:47:13,360 --> 00:47:16,040
Speaker 2: We went four and to last week. I think you

1022
00:47:16,080 --> 00:47:19,600
Speaker 2: came up just short on your under Yeah, we're counting.

1023
00:47:19,800 --> 00:47:22,120
Speaker 2: You know, you and I are gonna agree on which

1024
00:47:22,120 --> 00:47:23,440
Speaker 2: one of the three men weies picks we want to

1025
00:47:23,480 --> 00:47:26,040
Speaker 2: double up on, so they'll count those times. Winsimes are

1026
00:47:26,040 --> 00:47:28,759
Speaker 2: two losses, so we're gonna listen. We'll start with them,

1027
00:47:29,040 --> 00:47:33,359
Speaker 2: so let's get to their picks. My calculations are correct. Here,

1028
00:47:33,400 --> 00:47:36,200
Speaker 2: you gotta say something serious, all right.

1029
00:47:36,040 --> 00:47:38,880
Speaker 9: For my best bet, I'm going a total guys in

1030
00:47:38,960 --> 00:47:43,960
Speaker 9: the MECH Buffalo Ohio over one nine and a half

1031
00:47:44,000 --> 00:47:46,960
Speaker 9: one fifty. You could stretch it maybe a point higher

1032
00:47:47,239 --> 00:47:49,560
Speaker 9: and I'd be okay with it. This game should play

1033
00:47:49,640 --> 00:47:53,160
Speaker 9: high possession. Buffalo loves to and needs to run to

1034
00:47:53,200 --> 00:47:55,360
Speaker 9: win this game. To hang with Ohio one of the

1035
00:47:55,360 --> 00:47:57,920
Speaker 9: best teams in the MECH, and Ohio should oblige. They

1036
00:47:57,920 --> 00:48:00,920
Speaker 9: should run right with them. They're not scared of Buffalo themselves.

1037
00:48:01,320 --> 00:48:03,880
Speaker 9: Last year, this game played at seventy four possessions. It

1038
00:48:03,960 --> 00:48:06,200
Speaker 9: also played at seventy one possessions where they met twice.

1039
00:48:06,600 --> 00:48:08,680
Speaker 9: Each game had at least one hundred and fifty points

1040
00:48:08,680 --> 00:48:12,200
Speaker 9: in them. Buffalo she had a clear advantage inside, while

1041
00:48:12,200 --> 00:48:14,200
Speaker 9: Ohio she had a clear perimeter advantage.

1042
00:48:14,239 --> 00:48:16,640
Speaker 5: AKA. Both teams should score efficiently.

1043
00:48:17,120 --> 00:48:21,319
Speaker 9: Pace plus efficiency equals high high point totals. I like

1044
00:48:21,360 --> 00:48:24,600
Speaker 9: Buffalo Ohio over one forty nine and a half one fifty.

1045
00:48:25,840 --> 00:48:28,760
Speaker 8: All right, folks, I'm going to the MUAAC the MAC

1046
00:48:29,239 --> 00:48:32,760
Speaker 8: for my best bet. I'm talking the Manhattan Jaspers taking

1047
00:48:32,800 --> 00:48:35,400
Speaker 8: a quick trip just as Stones throw away over to

1048
00:48:35,480 --> 00:48:38,239
Speaker 8: Saint Peter's taking on a Peacocks team that's really been

1049
00:48:38,280 --> 00:48:40,919
Speaker 8: surging lately. Picked by most to finish a top leader

1050
00:48:40,960 --> 00:48:44,360
Speaker 8: board in the conference preseason, they struggled a little bit

1051
00:48:44,400 --> 00:48:47,040
Speaker 8: in Non Common now have looked like the one of

1052
00:48:47,080 --> 00:48:49,200
Speaker 8: the top two to three teams in that league. But

1053
00:48:49,280 --> 00:48:53,200
Speaker 8: the Jaspers have some top down transfer talent led by

1054
00:48:53,280 --> 00:48:56,839
Speaker 8: Jose Perez, former Marquette and Gardner Web standout. He has

1055
00:48:56,840 --> 00:48:59,760
Speaker 8: really stabilized a backgard that used to be extremely turnover prone,

1056
00:49:00,080 --> 00:49:03,560
Speaker 8: and against the peacocks stingy defense, they're gonna need his presence,

1057
00:49:03,800 --> 00:49:07,200
Speaker 8: along with the rejuvenated and renewed health and improved play

1058
00:49:07,600 --> 00:49:10,759
Speaker 8: of his Robin A. Simer Stewart there. In general, guys,

1059
00:49:10,760 --> 00:49:12,880
Speaker 8: this line's just way too high. Opened at seven and

1060
00:49:12,960 --> 00:49:14,719
Speaker 8: a half at the bet off at some of the

1061
00:49:14,760 --> 00:49:17,080
Speaker 8: off shores. By the time you listen this, I bets

1062
00:49:17,120 --> 00:49:19,040
Speaker 8: down to close to six and a half six. I

1063
00:49:19,040 --> 00:49:21,240
Speaker 8: would still take it at anything at six or higher.

1064
00:49:21,800 --> 00:49:23,600
Speaker 8: I just don't see the home court play out very

1065
00:49:23,640 --> 00:49:27,920
Speaker 8: strongly here. So far in MAAC play, twenty of forty

1066
00:49:27,920 --> 00:49:29,719
Speaker 8: four games have been won by the home team, so

1067
00:49:29,760 --> 00:49:31,440
Speaker 8: the road team is actually winning more games than the

1068
00:49:32,280 --> 00:49:35,000
Speaker 8: home team. Home court is nothing. Jasper's have a chance

1069
00:49:35,040 --> 00:49:37,520
Speaker 8: to win this game out right. Take the Jaspers and

1070
00:49:37,560 --> 00:49:38,319
Speaker 8: the points.

1071
00:49:38,600 --> 00:49:41,160
Speaker 10: All right, I'll round it out, guys. My best bet

1072
00:49:41,320 --> 00:49:43,920
Speaker 10: for Friday, part of our six pack is air Force

1073
00:49:44,239 --> 00:49:47,520
Speaker 10: home dog against Wyoming. I'm seeing some seven and a half,

1074
00:49:47,560 --> 00:49:49,600
Speaker 10: some eight, some eight and a half. I like anything

1075
00:49:49,800 --> 00:49:52,279
Speaker 10: seven and above. I just think this Air Force team

1076
00:49:52,360 --> 00:49:55,040
Speaker 10: is super feisty as an underdog. They've been terrific so

1077
00:49:55,120 --> 00:49:58,120
Speaker 10: far this year and last year as a way worse

1078
00:49:58,200 --> 00:50:01,359
Speaker 10: team they split with Wyoming. Air Force was horrendous last

1079
00:50:01,440 --> 00:50:02,759
Speaker 10: year and they still found a way to get it

1080
00:50:02,760 --> 00:50:06,799
Speaker 10: done once against Wyoming. Granted better Cowboys team this year,

1081
00:50:07,200 --> 00:50:07,800
Speaker 10: that's okay.

1082
00:50:07,920 --> 00:50:08,800
Speaker 2: I also love.

1083
00:50:08,680 --> 00:50:12,400
Speaker 10: The matchup here. Air Force plays a tricky matchup zone.

1084
00:50:12,560 --> 00:50:14,720
Speaker 10: Wyoming wants to play through the post more than anyone

1085
00:50:14,760 --> 00:50:17,479
Speaker 10: in the country per s energy. They feed Graham Ek

1086
00:50:17,880 --> 00:50:20,200
Speaker 10: over and over and over again. That's going to be

1087
00:50:20,200 --> 00:50:22,759
Speaker 10: really tough to do against this air Force zone. And

1088
00:50:22,840 --> 00:50:25,680
Speaker 10: on the other end, air Force's big weakness offensively is

1089
00:50:25,680 --> 00:50:28,680
Speaker 10: turning the ball over. They cough it up frequently, but

1090
00:50:28,760 --> 00:50:31,120
Speaker 10: Wyoming does not force turnovers.

1091
00:50:31,160 --> 00:50:32,000
Speaker 2: That is not a defense.

1092
00:50:32,000 --> 00:50:34,560
Speaker 10: It's going to take advantage of what the young Air

1093
00:50:34,560 --> 00:50:37,879
Speaker 10: Force roster does poorly. I think they hang around here

1094
00:50:37,960 --> 00:50:40,920
Speaker 10: at home it's a tough place to play. I know

1095
00:50:41,000 --> 00:50:43,760
Speaker 10: Wyoming's used to elevation, so that's not really an edge.

1096
00:50:44,080 --> 00:50:46,480
Speaker 10: But I think a confident young team at home, led

1097
00:50:46,520 --> 00:50:49,719
Speaker 10: by aj Walker, their veteran point guard, can stay close

1098
00:50:49,760 --> 00:50:53,000
Speaker 10: here and possibly even win outright. I'm on air Force.

1099
00:50:53,280 --> 00:50:55,200
Speaker 10: Let's go Falcons, Let's go air Troops.

1100
00:50:56,120 --> 00:50:59,000
Speaker 2: All right, good stuff there, I will say, I'll just

1101
00:50:59,000 --> 00:51:02,919
Speaker 2: start my My six involves one of these games. Maybe

1102
00:51:02,920 --> 00:51:05,520
Speaker 2: hopefully you didn't have this, because even on the same page,

1103
00:51:05,520 --> 00:51:06,879
Speaker 2: because we don't. We don't share any of our picks.

1104
00:51:06,920 --> 00:51:09,120
Speaker 2: We just coming with our our notes and go, do

1105
00:51:09,160 --> 00:51:11,040
Speaker 2: you have I hope you don't Buffalo? Do you have Buffalo?

1106
00:51:11,239 --> 00:51:13,600
Speaker 2: I don't have another Mac pick though, Yeah, I'm going

1107
00:51:13,600 --> 00:51:16,239
Speaker 2: Buffalo here. I think you know. And Baala looks back

1108
00:51:16,320 --> 00:51:19,200
Speaker 2: fully back when I saw him last game. This Buffalo

1109
00:51:19,239 --> 00:51:21,680
Speaker 2: team I think is underperformed. They're undervalued in the market.

1110
00:51:21,719 --> 00:51:23,719
Speaker 2: I like them, and anything minus three I think I

1111
00:51:23,719 --> 00:51:26,279
Speaker 2: saw an open or lower I think you might end

1112
00:51:26,360 --> 00:51:29,000
Speaker 2: up getting some Ohio money. Buffalo wants to get to

1113
00:51:29,040 --> 00:51:30,960
Speaker 2: the rim. I think they can do here. They want

1114
00:51:31,000 --> 00:51:34,239
Speaker 2: to get out and transition, and Ohio's defense has been

1115
00:51:34,280 --> 00:51:38,960
Speaker 2: bad in transition. Major revenge spot. Thank god my Ohio

1116
00:51:39,040 --> 00:51:43,560
Speaker 2: boys last year one an upset Buffalo in the MAC Tournament.

1117
00:51:43,560 --> 00:51:45,480
Speaker 2: I think it was the final, the MAC Tournament final

1118
00:51:45,560 --> 00:51:48,520
Speaker 2: last year. And I think Buffalo has had this spot

1119
00:51:48,560 --> 00:51:52,400
Speaker 2: circled at home, and I think you're gonna see. You know,

1120
00:51:52,480 --> 00:51:54,080
Speaker 2: people are saying Ohio is the best team the met

1121
00:51:54,200 --> 00:51:56,799
Speaker 2: I still think at the end come March, it's going

1122
00:51:56,840 --> 00:51:58,960
Speaker 2: to be Buffalo and this is a spot to back

1123
00:51:59,040 --> 00:52:03,160
Speaker 2: them at home. Where are you going? I'll go?

1124
00:52:03,239 --> 00:52:06,480
Speaker 7: Akron plus nine and a half against Toledo. Toledo has

1125
00:52:06,480 --> 00:52:09,239
Speaker 7: been one of the luckiest teams in college basketball. Their

1126
00:52:09,320 --> 00:52:12,400
Speaker 7: actual record is sixteen and four, but their shot quality

1127
00:52:12,440 --> 00:52:13,879
Speaker 7: record is twelve and eight.

1128
00:52:14,080 --> 00:52:15,560
Speaker 2: A lot of that has to do with the fact, and.

1129
00:52:15,920 --> 00:52:19,200
Speaker 6: You've preached on this many times, stucky, but a good

1130
00:52:19,640 --> 00:52:23,160
Speaker 6: indicator of defensive regression is looking at to hit what

1131
00:52:23,200 --> 00:52:25,919
Speaker 6: teams allow from three point field goal percentage and free

1132
00:52:25,920 --> 00:52:29,400
Speaker 6: throw defense free throw percentage, Well, Toledo is thirty sixth

1133
00:52:29,560 --> 00:52:32,040
Speaker 6: and three point field goal percentage allowed and tenth and

1134
00:52:32,120 --> 00:52:35,359
Speaker 6: free throw percentage allowed. Akron, on the other hand, has

1135
00:52:35,360 --> 00:52:37,840
Speaker 6: been a little unlucky due for some positive aggression. They

1136
00:52:37,920 --> 00:52:39,640
Speaker 6: run a ton of ball screens, they shoot a ton

1137
00:52:39,680 --> 00:52:40,080
Speaker 6: of threes.

1138
00:52:40,440 --> 00:52:42,919
Speaker 7: Their top thirty in both pick and roll and off

1139
00:52:43,000 --> 00:52:46,719
Speaker 7: dribble three point frequency, Toledo is outside the top two

1140
00:52:46,800 --> 00:52:48,800
Speaker 7: forty and defending both of those per shot quality.

1141
00:52:49,160 --> 00:52:50,839
Speaker 2: One of the big biggest weaknesses of.

1142
00:52:50,800 --> 00:52:54,200
Speaker 7: The Akron defense is they don't defend the three ball

1143
00:52:54,280 --> 00:52:57,160
Speaker 7: that well. But Toledo is one of the lowest three

1144
00:52:57,160 --> 00:52:59,239
Speaker 7: point rates in the MAX, so they really won't be

1145
00:52:59,239 --> 00:53:02,720
Speaker 7: able to exploit that weness. Also, Akron only allows fifty

1146
00:53:02,719 --> 00:53:05,160
Speaker 7: five percent on shot attempts the rim, and that's where

1147
00:53:05,160 --> 00:53:08,040
Speaker 7: Toledo likes to go most often. So hopefully some of

1148
00:53:08,080 --> 00:53:11,239
Speaker 7: that negative regression for Toledo comes on Friday nights. So

1149
00:53:11,280 --> 00:53:14,320
Speaker 7: I'll take Akron plus nine and a half, all right.

1150
00:53:14,560 --> 00:53:16,560
Speaker 2: I don't mind that at all. Akron Music, as I

1151
00:53:16,600 --> 00:53:19,960
Speaker 2: call them, the Zips. We have to choose one of

1152
00:53:20,880 --> 00:53:23,839
Speaker 2: the three man we've fixed to make our to make

1153
00:53:23,880 --> 00:53:26,480
Speaker 2: it our double up. Last week we went with Kai

1154
00:53:27,320 --> 00:53:30,839
Speaker 2: his in Nevada, the Matt and Kai. We're not gonna

1155
00:53:30,880 --> 00:53:33,279
Speaker 2: go with Kai in the total. This week. We're gonna

1156
00:53:33,320 --> 00:53:37,120
Speaker 2: go between one of the dogs. We're either going to

1157
00:53:37,160 --> 00:53:42,920
Speaker 2: go with Air Force or and Jim. Matt went with Manhattan.

1158
00:53:43,160 --> 00:53:47,239
Speaker 2: I don't mind either. I gotta like it. I like both.

1159
00:53:47,239 --> 00:53:48,759
Speaker 2: I might I probably will be on both if those

1160
00:53:48,880 --> 00:53:49,520
Speaker 2: numbers hold.

1161
00:53:50,080 --> 00:53:53,520
Speaker 6: Do you have a preference, Well, Wyoming has tortured me

1162
00:53:53,760 --> 00:53:54,760
Speaker 6: this entire season.

1163
00:53:54,800 --> 00:53:55,680
Speaker 2: I can't beat them.

1164
00:53:55,880 --> 00:53:58,360
Speaker 7: It just seems like every single time they just I

1165
00:53:58,360 --> 00:54:00,279
Speaker 7: play against them, especially against Poise to eight.

1166
00:54:00,680 --> 00:54:02,920
Speaker 2: It was ridiculous that Boys State didn't cover against them

1167
00:54:02,920 --> 00:54:06,160
Speaker 2: on Thursday. So you know, I'll let him torture me

1168
00:54:06,320 --> 00:54:07,960
Speaker 2: one more time. You know.

1169
00:54:07,960 --> 00:54:11,680
Speaker 7: Obviously air Force has been horrible this season, but that's

1170
00:54:11,719 --> 00:54:14,080
Speaker 7: where I would go, just because I enjoy.

1171
00:54:14,320 --> 00:54:17,239
Speaker 2: You, like you're like pain. Yeah, they've been feisty dog

1172
00:54:17,280 --> 00:54:18,920
Speaker 2: air Force. I do like the matchup as well as

1173
00:54:18,960 --> 00:54:21,160
Speaker 2: Jim mentioned, So we'll roll with Jim and air Force.

1174
00:54:21,239 --> 00:54:24,480
Speaker 2: There you have it. That is our Friday Night six pack.

1175
00:54:25,000 --> 00:54:30,720
Speaker 2: I'm going Buffalo, BJ's going Acron Guy's going Buffalo Ohio

1176
00:54:30,760 --> 00:54:34,920
Speaker 2: over one fifty mats, going Manhattan plus six against Saint Peter's,

1177
00:54:34,920 --> 00:54:37,120
Speaker 2: and Jim's going air Force against Whelming, which we're doubling

1178
00:54:37,200 --> 00:54:39,960
Speaker 2: up on as this sixth and final beer in the

1179
00:54:40,000 --> 00:54:42,080
Speaker 2: six pack or should I say pick in the six pack?

1180
00:54:42,719 --> 00:54:44,839
Speaker 2: All right, So that'll do it. For us. Thanks as

1181
00:54:44,840 --> 00:54:48,839
Speaker 2: always to BJ for joining me. Thanks Colin Wilson as well,

1182
00:54:48,960 --> 00:54:51,080
Speaker 2: and of course the guys from Three Men Weave and

1183
00:54:51,600 --> 00:54:55,319
Speaker 2: this week Blake Level. We're talking some SCC. Enjoy the

1184
00:54:55,360 --> 00:54:58,480
Speaker 2: games this weekend. Let's get on a run going into

1185
00:54:58,560 --> 00:55:01,680
Speaker 2: February and all the way through March. Make sure you

1186
00:55:01,680 --> 00:55:04,319
Speaker 2: subscribe on subscribe, subscribe, tell a friend, tell on enemy,

1187
00:55:04,400 --> 00:55:06,640
Speaker 2: leave a review, try to do yeah. I'll do some

1188
00:55:06,800 --> 00:55:10,080
Speaker 2: giveaways next week twenty five star reviews. Appreciate all your

1189
00:55:10,120 --> 00:55:14,560
Speaker 2: support and good luck out there, BJ go, I have

1190
00:55:14,719 --> 00:55:18,760
Speaker 2: on your hawk guys that so hawk Ohiowa bill Hawks

1191
00:55:18,840 --> 00:55:22,439
Speaker 2: still dam enjoyed the weekend championship Sunday in the NFL

1192
00:55:22,520 --> 00:55:25,440
Speaker 2: and great college basketball. All weekend should be a good one.

1193
00:55:25,480 --> 00:55:28,520
Speaker 2: We're back on Monday with BJ, myself and Mike Calversy

1194
00:55:28,520 --> 00:55:31,799
Speaker 2: will recap the weekend talk some Monday and Tuesday. Good luck,

1195
00:55:31,800 --> 00:55:33,000
Speaker 2: then we'll catch you all later. Cheers