1 00:00:13,000 --> 00:00:18,160 Speaker 1: Welcome to Drilled. There will be fraud theories in short 2 00:00:18,200 --> 00:00:22,400 Speaker 1: weekly episodes. We're going to be covering the ongoing ways 3 00:00:22,440 --> 00:00:25,880 Speaker 1: that the fossil fuel industry is using the COVID nineteen 4 00:00:25,960 --> 00:00:30,960 Speaker 1: pandemic to push all sorts of deregulation, secure funding for itself, 5 00:00:31,120 --> 00:00:34,279 Speaker 1: and get up to various other things. Today I am 6 00:00:34,360 --> 00:00:37,680 Speaker 1: joined by Justin Mkulka. He is a reporter for the 7 00:00:37,760 --> 00:00:41,680 Speaker 1: disbog and he's been looking at the financial straits of 8 00:00:41,720 --> 00:00:44,879 Speaker 1: the fossil fuel industry and particularly shale gas companies for 9 00:00:44,960 --> 00:00:48,240 Speaker 1: the last couple of years. Way before anybody else, Justin 10 00:00:48,360 --> 00:00:51,040 Speaker 1: was pointing out that, hey, these companies have never made 11 00:00:51,040 --> 00:00:55,720 Speaker 1: a profit. Seems weird. Last week, Justin published a story 12 00:00:55,800 --> 00:00:59,720 Speaker 1: about how the biggest obstacles to a bailout for shale 13 00:00:59,760 --> 00:01:03,680 Speaker 1: gas companies right now might surprise you. It's excellent and 14 00:01:03,760 --> 00:01:07,600 Speaker 1: Chevron joined by the American Petroleum Institute, we get into 15 00:01:07,920 --> 00:01:12,800 Speaker 1: why that is in this episode. Here's my conversation with Justin. 16 00:01:34,000 --> 00:01:36,160 Speaker 1: Maybe I could have you start by talking a little 17 00:01:36,160 --> 00:01:38,680 Speaker 1: bit about why it might be that the larger oil 18 00:01:38,720 --> 00:01:43,760 Speaker 1: companies don't want a bailout for the sort of smaller 19 00:01:43,800 --> 00:01:45,440 Speaker 1: independent shale companies. 20 00:01:45,880 --> 00:01:49,160 Speaker 2: You know, there's currently the international price war going on, 21 00:01:49,840 --> 00:01:52,200 Speaker 2: you know, between the Saudis and Russia, and you know, 22 00:01:52,320 --> 00:01:55,480 Speaker 2: obviously that's driving the price of oil down, which is 23 00:01:55,600 --> 00:01:59,480 Speaker 2: hurting the US industry. What's hurting the most is the 24 00:01:59,680 --> 00:02:02,760 Speaker 2: shale companies because they've failed to make money for the 25 00:02:02,800 --> 00:02:05,440 Speaker 2: past decade and have a lot of debts that they 26 00:02:05,480 --> 00:02:08,200 Speaker 2: need to pay back and so, but the situation we're 27 00:02:08,240 --> 00:02:11,280 Speaker 2: in right now is the two majors, Chevron and Exon, 28 00:02:11,440 --> 00:02:14,280 Speaker 2: who are already into the shale business in a big 29 00:02:14,320 --> 00:02:17,040 Speaker 2: way in the Permian region, which is really the last 30 00:02:17,240 --> 00:02:19,600 Speaker 2: shale play that anyone wants to be in because it's 31 00:02:19,600 --> 00:02:22,560 Speaker 2: the only one that really still is profitable in any way. 32 00:02:22,960 --> 00:02:26,040 Speaker 2: So if you step back from the global price war 33 00:02:26,080 --> 00:02:29,079 Speaker 2: going on, there's a war going on in the Permian 34 00:02:29,120 --> 00:02:33,080 Speaker 2: region where Exxon and Chevron are happy to see no 35 00:02:33,200 --> 00:02:36,320 Speaker 2: bailouts for the shale companies because that will make them 36 00:02:36,320 --> 00:02:41,520 Speaker 2: go bankrupt more quickly, and then Chevron and Exon more 37 00:02:41,560 --> 00:02:44,720 Speaker 2: so because Chevron is in a much stronger position. Exon 38 00:02:44,919 --> 00:02:47,359 Speaker 2: has overpaid for a lot of assets in the past, 39 00:02:47,480 --> 00:02:50,280 Speaker 2: and so they're looking at this as a real opportunity 40 00:02:50,320 --> 00:02:53,520 Speaker 2: to hopefully bankrupt you know, watch the shale companies go 41 00:02:53,600 --> 00:02:56,200 Speaker 2: bankrupt and then buy those Permian assets for pennies on 42 00:02:56,240 --> 00:02:56,640 Speaker 2: the dollar. 43 00:02:57,400 --> 00:02:59,600 Speaker 1: Where does that leave Oxy in the Permian. 44 00:02:59,480 --> 00:03:02,560 Speaker 2: Well, speaking of shale gas, one of the reasons Exon 45 00:03:02,600 --> 00:03:04,880 Speaker 2: wants to pick up assets cheap is because they made 46 00:03:04,919 --> 00:03:07,280 Speaker 2: one of the worst acquisitions ever in two thousand and 47 00:03:07,400 --> 00:03:10,080 Speaker 2: nine when they bought Xto, which was their way to 48 00:03:10,080 --> 00:03:13,160 Speaker 2: get into the shale market mostly gas. At that point, 49 00:03:13,480 --> 00:03:16,320 Speaker 2: they paid forty one billion dollars for it, and it 50 00:03:17,080 --> 00:03:20,320 Speaker 2: probably was worth a billion dollars a couple of years later. 51 00:03:21,120 --> 00:03:25,919 Speaker 2: But right now Oxy is looking to take maybe he'd 52 00:03:25,919 --> 00:03:27,959 Speaker 2: take the place in the history books as the worst, 53 00:03:28,040 --> 00:03:32,160 Speaker 2: you know, worse than the Xto acquisition by Exon a 54 00:03:32,200 --> 00:03:34,920 Speaker 2: similar price tag of thirty eight billion dollars. That's what 55 00:03:34,960 --> 00:03:39,000 Speaker 2: they paid for Ana Darko and it's just turned out 56 00:03:39,000 --> 00:03:41,360 Speaker 2: to be a disaster. But an important part of that 57 00:03:41,480 --> 00:03:44,800 Speaker 2: story is Chevron had an offer of thirty three billion 58 00:03:44,840 --> 00:03:49,880 Speaker 2: dollars for n and Darko, and then they Occidental came 59 00:03:49,920 --> 00:03:53,800 Speaker 2: in and Anon Darko wanted to get a bidding war going, 60 00:03:54,080 --> 00:03:56,640 Speaker 2: and Chevron just backed out and said, we're not over paid, 61 00:03:56,640 --> 00:04:00,080 Speaker 2: you know, thirty three is our highest offer, and so 62 00:04:00,400 --> 00:04:02,760 Speaker 2: thirty eight was the offer that came through from Occidental. 63 00:04:02,960 --> 00:04:05,720 Speaker 2: So you know, you can see in hindsight, Chevron made 64 00:04:05,720 --> 00:04:08,680 Speaker 2: a very smart move. Plus they got because they were 65 00:04:08,680 --> 00:04:11,640 Speaker 2: already negotiations, they got a billion dollar payout just for 66 00:04:11,720 --> 00:04:15,320 Speaker 2: walking away, which they used to buy back stock. So 67 00:04:15,680 --> 00:04:19,080 Speaker 2: Chevron has paid very little for their assets in the Permian. 68 00:04:19,200 --> 00:04:22,640 Speaker 2: They seem to not be desperate in any way, whereas 69 00:04:22,720 --> 00:04:26,680 Speaker 2: Occidental certainly overpaid for those assets. And it looks like 70 00:04:27,000 --> 00:04:30,119 Speaker 2: even Warren Buffett, who put in ten billion dollars into 71 00:04:30,120 --> 00:04:33,719 Speaker 2: that deal, and his explanation for it was he believed 72 00:04:33,720 --> 00:04:36,320 Speaker 2: in the Permian, as you know, as a viable, you know, 73 00:04:36,440 --> 00:04:39,600 Speaker 2: oil producing field where you could make profits. And here 74 00:04:39,640 --> 00:04:42,240 Speaker 2: we are a year later and it's looking like even 75 00:04:42,279 --> 00:04:45,400 Speaker 2: Warren Buffett's going to lose money on this deal. So 76 00:04:45,440 --> 00:04:47,720 Speaker 2: the Permian is really where money goes to die. At 77 00:04:47,720 --> 00:04:48,480 Speaker 2: this point, can. 78 00:04:48,360 --> 00:04:51,480 Speaker 1: You talk a little bit about why the Anadarko purchase 79 00:04:51,880 --> 00:04:54,560 Speaker 1: was a bad one and what made it seem like 80 00:04:54,600 --> 00:04:57,280 Speaker 1: it was worth that much money initially and why has 81 00:04:57,320 --> 00:04:57,839 Speaker 1: it turned. 82 00:04:57,640 --> 00:05:00,359 Speaker 2: Out to be a bad purchase With all of these 83 00:05:00,560 --> 00:05:04,960 Speaker 2: shale plays you know, wells and certain regions have been profitable. 84 00:05:05,080 --> 00:05:08,840 Speaker 2: But on the whole, the industry, and you know these 85 00:05:08,880 --> 00:05:11,120 Speaker 2: shale plays, on the whole, most of the wells are 86 00:05:11,160 --> 00:05:14,799 Speaker 2: not profitable. So the idea of overpaying for an asset 87 00:05:15,080 --> 00:05:17,560 Speaker 2: when you probably you know you're not going to make 88 00:05:17,600 --> 00:05:21,920 Speaker 2: money even if you paid fair market value. Occidental certainly 89 00:05:21,960 --> 00:05:24,400 Speaker 2: overpaid for it. You know, they paid five billion dollars 90 00:05:24,400 --> 00:05:27,760 Speaker 2: more than Chevron was willing to pay. The companies make 91 00:05:27,800 --> 00:05:30,760 Speaker 2: these mistakes where they think scale is going to help, 92 00:05:31,320 --> 00:05:33,760 Speaker 2: and they wanted to acquire more assets and become a 93 00:05:33,800 --> 00:05:36,480 Speaker 2: major player in the game. And I mean they've wiped out. 94 00:05:36,640 --> 00:05:39,839 Speaker 2: A year ago, Occidental stock was around sixty seven dollars 95 00:05:39,839 --> 00:05:42,520 Speaker 2: and you know now it's around ten. And so they've 96 00:05:42,560 --> 00:05:46,039 Speaker 2: saddled themselves with all this debt, which is the classic 97 00:05:46,240 --> 00:05:48,880 Speaker 2: model for a shale company. You know, you borrow money 98 00:05:49,200 --> 00:05:52,280 Speaker 2: to get these wells, but you have to keep getting 99 00:05:52,279 --> 00:05:55,080 Speaker 2: more wells because they deplete so quickly. So at a 100 00:05:55,120 --> 00:05:58,760 Speaker 2: time when the industry already I mean it was clear, 101 00:05:59,720 --> 00:06:01,680 Speaker 2: you know, I started writing about how the industry wasn't 102 00:06:01,720 --> 00:06:05,599 Speaker 2: making money two years ago, and it was pretty clear 103 00:06:05,600 --> 00:06:09,800 Speaker 2: a year ago that there was serious structural problems in 104 00:06:09,839 --> 00:06:12,320 Speaker 2: the finances of the shale industry, and then they went 105 00:06:12,360 --> 00:06:14,120 Speaker 2: in and over you know, it's the classic buying at 106 00:06:14,120 --> 00:06:17,280 Speaker 2: the top of the market. They overpaid and now they're 107 00:06:17,279 --> 00:06:20,120 Speaker 2: just getting I mean, so much equity has been wiped out. 108 00:06:20,480 --> 00:06:23,839 Speaker 2: And then that was even before you know, the oil 109 00:06:23,880 --> 00:06:26,240 Speaker 2: prices right now are you know, if you look at 110 00:06:26,480 --> 00:06:28,960 Speaker 2: you know, the stock ticker, it says oil prices are 111 00:06:28,960 --> 00:06:32,640 Speaker 2: twenty dollars a share. But in Texas, you know, in 112 00:06:33,000 --> 00:06:36,440 Speaker 2: the Permian they're probably getting ten dollars a barrow in 113 00:06:36,480 --> 00:06:39,880 Speaker 2: the bocket. In some places it's between five and ten. So, 114 00:06:40,920 --> 00:06:44,400 Speaker 2: I mean, there's just they I mean, it's it's going 115 00:06:44,480 --> 00:06:46,680 Speaker 2: to be just a downward spiral for all these companies, 116 00:06:47,800 --> 00:06:51,680 Speaker 2: which is exactly what Exxon and Chevron are enjoying watching 117 00:06:51,720 --> 00:06:54,320 Speaker 2: and waiting for so that they can then buy up 118 00:06:54,360 --> 00:06:54,960 Speaker 2: the assets. 119 00:06:55,240 --> 00:06:57,920 Speaker 1: Where are company continuing to invest in this and given 120 00:06:58,000 --> 00:07:00,400 Speaker 1: that it is a collapsing stream. 121 00:07:00,600 --> 00:07:04,600 Speaker 2: Yeah, Well, what Buffett did apparently the CEO of Occidental 122 00:07:04,680 --> 00:07:07,320 Speaker 2: had a ninety minute conversation with him and convinced him 123 00:07:07,360 --> 00:07:10,160 Speaker 2: to put the ten billion dollars into the deal for 124 00:07:10,200 --> 00:07:13,760 Speaker 2: the acquisition for Ana Darco. Probably he should have done 125 00:07:13,760 --> 00:07:16,680 Speaker 2: a little bit more homework you would have expected from Buffett. 126 00:07:16,720 --> 00:07:19,360 Speaker 2: But what he did do, it's the same thing he 127 00:07:19,400 --> 00:07:23,560 Speaker 2: did during the housing crisis. Goldman Sachs was insolvent and 128 00:07:23,640 --> 00:07:26,120 Speaker 2: Warren Buffett came in and gave them ten million dollars. 129 00:07:26,960 --> 00:07:29,440 Speaker 2: But what he does, you know, he's The way these 130 00:07:29,440 --> 00:07:32,960 Speaker 2: are structured is if the company makes any money, he's 131 00:07:33,000 --> 00:07:36,640 Speaker 2: first in line. He has preferred status. So it's a 132 00:07:36,680 --> 00:07:42,080 Speaker 2: pretty safe bet unless Occidental goes bankrupt, which there's I 133 00:07:42,080 --> 00:07:44,680 Speaker 2: think a real chance of. Now. What's happening right now 134 00:07:44,760 --> 00:07:47,120 Speaker 2: is they're looking instead of paying him back with money 135 00:07:47,240 --> 00:07:49,840 Speaker 2: and dividends because they don't have any anymore, they're looking 136 00:07:49,920 --> 00:07:52,680 Speaker 2: at paying him back at stock, which is all well 137 00:07:52,680 --> 00:07:55,560 Speaker 2: and good. If they survive and the oil price goes 138 00:07:55,600 --> 00:07:58,800 Speaker 2: back up, then he does very well. If they go bankrupt, 139 00:07:58,880 --> 00:08:01,600 Speaker 2: he's in trouble, just like everyone else. 140 00:08:01,840 --> 00:08:05,440 Speaker 1: Okay, so say Oxy goes out of business, a bunch 141 00:08:05,440 --> 00:08:07,680 Speaker 1: of these small shale companies go to business. Exon and 142 00:08:07,760 --> 00:08:12,160 Speaker 1: Chevron pick up cheap property in the Permian. But the 143 00:08:12,200 --> 00:08:17,120 Speaker 1: price war continues for like another year or who knows 144 00:08:17,120 --> 00:08:19,840 Speaker 1: how long. I think. I think ultimately, like the Saudi's 145 00:08:19,960 --> 00:08:24,080 Speaker 1: and the Russians, can withstand a low oil price for 146 00:08:24,200 --> 00:08:27,680 Speaker 1: longer than any US company. And so is there a 147 00:08:27,680 --> 00:08:31,480 Speaker 1: point where like even you know, Exon and Chevron would 148 00:08:31,520 --> 00:08:33,160 Speaker 1: be in trouble with those assets. 149 00:08:33,400 --> 00:08:36,400 Speaker 2: Well, and that's the thing. I'm actually writing an article 150 00:08:36,400 --> 00:08:40,160 Speaker 2: about that right now. Exon. You know, there's this kind 151 00:08:40,200 --> 00:08:44,000 Speaker 2: of this mythology that well, once Exon comes in, they 152 00:08:44,040 --> 00:08:45,839 Speaker 2: know how to make money on these you know, these 153 00:08:45,880 --> 00:08:49,160 Speaker 2: properties and make money in the shale business. But all 154 00:08:49,200 --> 00:08:50,959 Speaker 2: you have to do is look at the XDO deal 155 00:08:51,600 --> 00:08:53,680 Speaker 2: to show that they're not the best judge of investing 156 00:08:53,679 --> 00:08:56,400 Speaker 2: in shale. But Golden Sacks just came out with a 157 00:08:56,760 --> 00:08:59,960 Speaker 2: basically a research note on the shale industry this week, 158 00:09:00,600 --> 00:09:03,560 Speaker 2: and one of the things that they noted was Exon 159 00:09:03,679 --> 00:09:07,320 Speaker 2: and Chevron have no ability to produce oil more cheaply 160 00:09:07,360 --> 00:09:10,960 Speaker 2: than any of these other companies, which really makes sense. 161 00:09:11,000 --> 00:09:13,760 Speaker 2: I mean, companies like Pioneer have been doing this for 162 00:09:13,800 --> 00:09:15,920 Speaker 2: a long time. You know, they hire the best people 163 00:09:16,000 --> 00:09:18,520 Speaker 2: and they understand shale very well. So it's not like 164 00:09:18,600 --> 00:09:21,760 Speaker 2: Exon can come in and just has some magic formula 165 00:09:21,920 --> 00:09:23,960 Speaker 2: to be able to make money when oil is thirty 166 00:09:24,040 --> 00:09:27,760 Speaker 2: dollars a barrel. So I expect Exon to continue losing 167 00:09:27,800 --> 00:09:31,200 Speaker 2: money on shale. But you know, if you look at 168 00:09:31,200 --> 00:09:34,000 Speaker 2: their corporate strategy, you know basically what they're saying is 169 00:09:34,000 --> 00:09:35,640 Speaker 2: we're going to acquire as much oil as we can, 170 00:09:35,679 --> 00:09:37,640 Speaker 2: and we're going to produce it, and we plan to 171 00:09:37,840 --> 00:09:39,880 Speaker 2: burn every last drop for the next you know, three 172 00:09:39,920 --> 00:09:43,040 Speaker 2: to five decades. And so this is a you know, 173 00:09:43,160 --> 00:09:46,920 Speaker 2: there is oil in the Permian, in that shale, it's 174 00:09:47,000 --> 00:09:48,800 Speaker 2: just no one has figured out a way how to 175 00:09:48,840 --> 00:09:51,840 Speaker 2: get it out of the ground profitably on a large scale. 176 00:09:52,040 --> 00:09:56,040 Speaker 2: And the other thing that everyone is facing in the 177 00:09:56,040 --> 00:09:59,360 Speaker 2: Permian and the Bakan has already peaked. Essentially they've drilled 178 00:09:59,400 --> 00:10:02,600 Speaker 2: all the best spot so you know, it's not like 179 00:10:02,679 --> 00:10:04,439 Speaker 2: Exon can go in and say we're just going to 180 00:10:04,559 --> 00:10:06,320 Speaker 2: you know, we're going to pick up the best spots. 181 00:10:06,600 --> 00:10:09,080 Speaker 2: Most of the sweet spots have already been drilled. So 182 00:10:09,679 --> 00:10:13,599 Speaker 2: I don't foresee a future, especially if oil prices remain low, 183 00:10:13,760 --> 00:10:18,080 Speaker 2: where Exon magically figures out how to make a profit 184 00:10:18,080 --> 00:10:20,480 Speaker 2: in the permuting even at fifty dollars a barrel, because 185 00:10:20,480 --> 00:10:22,199 Speaker 2: no one has consistently shown they can do that. 186 00:10:22,800 --> 00:10:22,920 Speaker 1: MM. 187 00:10:23,679 --> 00:10:27,160 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean Exon right now has been borrowing money 188 00:10:27,200 --> 00:10:31,080 Speaker 2: to pay its dividend, which is just not a sustainable 189 00:10:31,080 --> 00:10:34,440 Speaker 2: business model. And so this crisis is going to certainly 190 00:10:34,480 --> 00:10:37,760 Speaker 2: be used one as ways. You know, as you've talked about, 191 00:10:38,000 --> 00:10:42,040 Speaker 2: they're going to get bailouts in some way, whether it's 192 00:10:42,040 --> 00:10:45,840 Speaker 2: from the FED or from these big slush funds. And certainly, 193 00:10:46,120 --> 00:10:48,840 Speaker 2: at one point Trump tweeted out about the oil industry 194 00:10:48,840 --> 00:10:53,760 Speaker 2: and he specifically used the phrase national security, and so 195 00:10:54,320 --> 00:10:56,240 Speaker 2: you know they're going to you know, they're certainly going 196 00:10:56,320 --> 00:10:59,280 Speaker 2: to try to do those things. But again, Exon and 197 00:10:59,360 --> 00:11:02,839 Speaker 2: Chevron do not want those shale companies bailed out. And 198 00:11:02,880 --> 00:11:06,800 Speaker 2: there's right now, just this week the CEO of Scott 199 00:11:06,880 --> 00:11:10,400 Speaker 2: Sheffield of Pioneer and then the CEO of Parsley have 200 00:11:10,440 --> 00:11:14,480 Speaker 2: written a letter to the Texas Regulatory Agency asking for 201 00:11:14,559 --> 00:11:18,360 Speaker 2: production cuts, basically saying you need to step in and 202 00:11:18,440 --> 00:11:22,240 Speaker 2: tell the Texas producers we need to limit production so 203 00:11:22,280 --> 00:11:25,120 Speaker 2: we can bring prices back up. And so, I mean 204 00:11:25,160 --> 00:11:29,079 Speaker 2: that's unprecedented to ask for, you know, control of the markets, 205 00:11:29,120 --> 00:11:32,960 Speaker 2: the free markets in America. But in the reporting on that, 206 00:11:33,120 --> 00:11:35,240 Speaker 2: you know, just the two sentences that't matter who are 207 00:11:35,240 --> 00:11:39,000 Speaker 2: the one sentence was Chevron and Exxon do not support 208 00:11:39,040 --> 00:11:42,760 Speaker 2: production cuts. So once again, you know the shale companies 209 00:11:42,800 --> 00:11:45,960 Speaker 2: are trying whatever they can do to stay alive, and 210 00:11:46,600 --> 00:11:49,960 Speaker 2: at every turn Chevron and Exxon in the American Controlling 211 00:11:49,960 --> 00:11:53,440 Speaker 2: Institute are stepping in in the way, and you know 212 00:11:53,559 --> 00:12:00,199 Speaker 2: they just have more power. 213 00:12:02,320 --> 00:12:04,280 Speaker 1: That's it for this time again, we're going to be 214 00:12:04,360 --> 00:12:08,200 Speaker 1: doing ongoing reporting to track exactly what the fossil fuel 215 00:12:08,240 --> 00:12:11,199 Speaker 1: industry is getting up to while the world is distracted 216 00:12:11,200 --> 00:12:14,560 Speaker 1: by a pandemic. 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