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Speaker 1: seven zero zero in Wyoming, or visit one eight hundred

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Speaker 1: gambler dot net in West Virginia. Welcome to The Favorites,

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Speaker 1: the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Melman,

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Speaker 1: Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. I am joined

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Speaker 1: as I am for every episode by my bff, my companion,

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Speaker 1: my compadre professional better, Simon Hunter ed O Simon, Hello, Chad.

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Speaker 1: I'm explaining obviously there has been a lot going on

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Speaker 1: in the NFL, from the Bills Bengals game on Monday

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Speaker 1: night and with tomorrow Hamlin and what happened there, which

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Speaker 1: is tragic, and we've all been trying to figure out,

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Speaker 1: as we do in situations where something bigger than sports happens,

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Speaker 1: how do we go and talk about betting. So, for

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Speaker 1: those who normally listened to the show live on AMP

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Speaker 1: Tuesday afternoons, we postponed doing the show because we didn't

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Speaker 1: really know what was happening. There was no announcement yet

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Speaker 1: on what was happening with the Bills Bengals game, Obviously

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Speaker 1: there's still no announcement for tomorrow Hamlin. As we record

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Speaker 1: this on Tuesday night. We also didn't know what the

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Speaker 1: NFL on how they were going to treat the games

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Speaker 1: this weekend, so we just waited until we knew there

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Speaker 1: was some sort of certainty with what's happening in the games.

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Speaker 1: The games are happening. It's what we do is talk

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Speaker 1: about betting on the games, and so we decided to

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Speaker 1: do the show. We're gonna play a pretty straight this episode.

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Speaker 1: Not a lot of the usual bells and whistles that

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Speaker 1: you'll normally get. Will be back on Thursday live on

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Speaker 1: AMP for the show. There's also obviously a lot of

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Speaker 1: people are asking, you know, practical questions, what happens to

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Speaker 1: your bets? You know, we had a story and Action

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Speaker 1: bets are avoided. The standard procedure is if there is

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Speaker 1: a game that doesn't get finished within seven days of

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Speaker 1: it's starting, that's are avoided. Um, you can check out

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Speaker 1: Action Network for that. Simon and I on Thursday will

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Speaker 1: dig a little bit deeper into sort of futures and

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Speaker 1: hedging and things like that because we've talked a lot

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Speaker 1: about that and making bets on those on certain teams

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Speaker 1: and winning divisions, seatings, etcetera. We'll talk a little bit

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Speaker 1: more about that on Thursday. Hopefully we'll get a little

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Speaker 1: bit more clarity on sort of how things are evolving

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Speaker 1: in the NFL. So we're just gonna get right to it.

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Speaker 1: Me and Chat had a rough start. We'll go to

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Speaker 1: the quick recap. But yeah, the two and three, I'll

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Speaker 1: take full blame. Chat, I'm so sorry, try to be

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Speaker 1: too cute. Take the line value. I was killing myself

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Speaker 1: the minute the game started. I said, why did we

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Speaker 1: do that? Me? Chad, damn it. We've been grinding all

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Speaker 1: year and we went with the stupid line value, So

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Speaker 1: killing myself over that. You were spot on Mber that

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Speaker 1: minute that game started to you knew that was gonna

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Speaker 1: be a cover. What were the up seven? Nothing? And

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Speaker 1: then my homes through like an end zone pick. So

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Speaker 1: you nailed that one. So I and like I have

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Speaker 1: like notes for our whole season. My biggest note is

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Speaker 1: don't chase the line value. And I fell right into

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Speaker 1: because that four Nanders one sucked me in. Though like

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Speaker 1: that one felt so good. Um, like the Atlanta one,

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Speaker 1: I get like that's gonna happen. But that was classic

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Speaker 1: football where the backup QB came in for the Raiders

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Speaker 1: and he puts up thirty four points against the best

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Speaker 1: defensive football. That's why I love gambling. I love football,

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Speaker 1: so um it will constantly humble you quick. Probably my

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Speaker 1: worst weekend betting this year. I mean I had a

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Speaker 1: decent amount on Minnesota. We know how that played out.

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Speaker 1: And I even said it to Chad like, I don't

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Speaker 1: know if it was you asking on amper on the show,

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Speaker 1: but you're like, who's the biggest most money you've taken

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Speaker 1: with your your your guys so far? And I was like,

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Speaker 1: Green Bay has been one of the bigger bets, and

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Speaker 1: I still went against it and paid for it. So um, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: one of those weeks where if it was middlest reason,

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Speaker 1: it would really get me down. But since it's the

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Speaker 1: end of the year, I kind of quickly just turned

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Speaker 1: around and already was onto the next week just because

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Speaker 1: it's this is it, like this is crunch time. So

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Speaker 1: it definitely stung Sunday night, but you know, on onto Monday,

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Speaker 1: I was onto the next week. Yeah, you're right, I'm

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Speaker 1: sort of so wrapped up in thinking about how we're

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Speaker 1: managing this. I forgot to go through uh, and people

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Speaker 1: want to hear suffer people like when we lose some

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Speaker 1: of these. We lost the Foxhole, it was the Texans.

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Speaker 1: We lost. Simon says it was the it was the Vikings.

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Speaker 1: Unfortunately we don't know have an outcome on bills. That

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Speaker 1: was the exact decision Big Balls with the Bucks. We

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Speaker 1: were right there, um when you were going to give

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Speaker 1: out Denver on that one, so like that was a

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Speaker 1: can't miss. You were spot on with that one because

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Speaker 1: you made a great argument for why the Bucks should

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Speaker 1: be the big Balls and we won that one. I

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Speaker 1: had in scootrow Let you had the jets ide the

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Speaker 1: broncos Um I think. I mean we're all tied in

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Speaker 1: scootra Let head in the final week chat. Oh my god,

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Speaker 1: I think. And yeah, like, um uh, we got suckered

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Speaker 1: in on the seat on the closing line value. We've

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Speaker 1: been so smart about it all year and have not

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Speaker 1: let that dictate. Was pissed and the fans are giving

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Speaker 1: me ship and I was so well deserved. They were like,

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Speaker 1: they're like, what are you guys doing. You guys should

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Speaker 1: be playing on the other side doing game theory, and

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Speaker 1: I was like, fuck, they're right. So yeah, we did

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Speaker 1: it with the Cowboys and it paid off. But then

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Speaker 1: we been on San Francisco, we've been on Atlanta, which

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Speaker 1: we didn't like all week and like didn't even touch it.

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Speaker 1: I didn't think about it, just played it because those

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Speaker 1: three points of value, and we like we actually said

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Speaker 1: to each other, what about the Saints? We like the Saints,

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Speaker 1: and then the Saints Like it was never in doubt,

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Speaker 1: so it wasn't doubt for one second. Then the pick

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Speaker 1: six happened. You go, that's why, that's why you took

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Speaker 1: the Saints. There min she was eventually going to shoot

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Speaker 1: himself on the foot and he did. So yeah, that

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Speaker 1: Saints one. No, the Dever one will forever haunt me though,

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Speaker 1: because you were just spot on with the saying of Mahomes.

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Speaker 1: He just doesn't cover those big spreads. It's if it's

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Speaker 1: not as if he's board. It's just one of those

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Speaker 1: things where it's like they just play teams close. Um.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, one of those weeks where we we had

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Speaker 1: it sitting there three and two, four and one and

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Speaker 1: got two cute, what's our current place? I'd have to look.

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Speaker 1: I think we're what fifty and thirty, so I'm guessing

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Speaker 1: we're still in the top. Probably fell at the top

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Speaker 1: top fifty last week. Yeah, which is good though because

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Speaker 1: a lot of people are going to use their five

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Speaker 1: by so we should get a nice bump if we

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Speaker 1: have a good week. Which the year we finished top

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Speaker 1: twenty chat we did the impossible in five minute in

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Speaker 1: the final week, so we need we need more of

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Speaker 1: that magic. Alright, Well, we gotta Chiefs Raiders game going

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Speaker 1: on right now, and the Raiders are looks like decent

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Speaker 1: size favorites at home. The Jared's did hims against the

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Speaker 1: Kansas City Chiefs. Interesting game, Interesting idea that the Chiefs

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Speaker 1: are this big a favorite on the road, uh seven

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Speaker 1: and a half point favorites at handul on the road

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Speaker 1: at Las Vegas. And honestly, if it was anybody else

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Speaker 1: other than Las Vegas with Jared's did him off of

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Speaker 1: the game, that will never get better for him. I'd

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Speaker 1: probably take the Raiders, but probably wants to bet on

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Speaker 1: the Chiefs here. Yeah, they're probably sucking me and give

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Speaker 1: me a seven half of the Raiders, but I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: take it. Um, But this is one. Maybe we'll know

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Speaker 1: more on Thursday. But as we sit here now. My

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Speaker 1: view it is, Yeah, the Chiefs are gonna play hard.

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Speaker 1: The Raiders are gonna play hard. It's divisional game. Raiders

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Speaker 1: tend to play them close. But like you just said, Chad,

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Speaker 1: we just now I've been on a quarterback coming off

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Speaker 1: the game of his life. Um, who's a notorious backup?

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Speaker 1: It's not not ideal. Um, So for me, I don't know.

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Speaker 1: I just I just can't see this being on our five.

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Speaker 1: So I could easily not not put that much on

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Speaker 1: this one. Uh yeah, I don't see it, um being

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Speaker 1: one that we we get committed to. The Titans also

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Speaker 1: on side day. These these first few games were on Saturday,

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Speaker 1: Titans at the Jaguars, So we know Josh Dobbs is

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Speaker 1: starting the Jaguars under a touchdown right now six and

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Speaker 1: a half. We know suckers we and no soccers. We

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Speaker 1: we have to take the Titans and when we love

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Speaker 1: the Jaguars. There literally our team. They're looking like one

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Speaker 1: of the best teams on football right now. I mean

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Speaker 1: they are steam rolling teams offensively and defensively. They I

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Speaker 1: mean Doug Peterson has it rolling. Um. I feel like

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Speaker 1: a proud father, Chad, Like this is when we're definitely

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Speaker 1: gonna dive into on Thursday, because this was a team

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Speaker 1: talked about all summer and probably my hardest troll team

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Speaker 1: of the season. I mean, never ending amount of dudes

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Speaker 1: just talking ship about our love for the Jaguars, being like,

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Speaker 1: how could you give them out Super Bowl futures? How

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Speaker 1: could you give out their division? And I had to

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Speaker 1: eat it. There were two and six and I literally

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Speaker 1: looked at the clown paint makeup on so um, this

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Speaker 1: all stands between m and when in this division? Now

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Speaker 1: is then being a six and a half point favorite

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Speaker 1: against a I don't know second third string quarterback exactly

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Speaker 1: when me and take the Titans and the Titans somehow

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Speaker 1: pull up some miracle ups. I do think the Jaguars

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Speaker 1: will win, but I think this comes down to a

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Speaker 1: last second possession. So six and a half we'll take

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Speaker 1: the number. I mean, every one in the world's gonna

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Speaker 1: have this team teased money line parlay. There will be

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Speaker 1: on the six and a half because under seven with

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Speaker 1: the Jaguars, so um, this will usually this usually one

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Speaker 1: of those games the books clean up on. It's a

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Speaker 1: Saturday night standalone game. The public will come in heavy

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Speaker 1: on the home favorite. The pros will take the dog

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Speaker 1: divisionally in this game, especially six and a half. This

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Speaker 1: line is moving, by the way, because right now it's

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Speaker 1: plus six and a half minus one fifteen plus six

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Speaker 1: and a half minus one oh five. Should we make

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Speaker 1: a foxhol it feels like we have to yea or

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Speaker 1: it feels more like a Simon says some Time says it,

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Speaker 1: Someona says at it right now because yeah, it doesn't

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Speaker 1: hit the same. We don't have wild listeners. I'll be honest,

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Speaker 1: it's a little different. That's changed the dynamic a little

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Speaker 1: bit for the better. I think, um uh yeah, I

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Speaker 1: think I agree with you right now. By the way,

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Speaker 1: I know it's still very early. Uh not a lot

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Speaker 1: of bets on any of these games, but the money

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Speaker 1: on the Tennessee Titans, and that's just to me, seems

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Speaker 1: like just pros like that. Pro money comes in early

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Speaker 1: in the week. The public's happenly to sit back and

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Speaker 1: then bet the game on set Sunday morning, you know, yeah,

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Speaker 1: um alright, So the Minnesota Vikings visiting the Chicago Bears.

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Speaker 1: There was a run where I thought the Bears, we're

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Speaker 1: a pretty good covering team, and you were getting value

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Speaker 1: on them, and then this past week, you know, they

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Speaker 1: get blown out one to ten. I love them at

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Speaker 1: plus six. I feel less enthusiastic about the Bear is

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Speaker 1: at plus five and a half at home against the Vikings.

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Speaker 1: I will say, I said to my kid the other day,

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Speaker 1: I think the Bear is gonna win the Super Bowl

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Speaker 1: in the next five years. Yeah, it's hard to say,

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Speaker 1: just because you have to hit the draft right. But

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Speaker 1: I love all the not the rumors flying out there,

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Speaker 1: but the Bay, the trade machines flying of Like, Okay,

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Speaker 1: Bears give up their top pick in this year's draft,

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Speaker 1: just straight up for Johnt Damas or whatever they're doing

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Speaker 1: gona do to just get him a receiver. Um, I'm

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Speaker 1: with it, Like justin fields, that's what that's what your

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Speaker 1: dream is right now, Jo just building around him. But

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Speaker 1: if you can, if they can fix the defense in

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Speaker 1: two to three years, yeah, you guys are gonna be

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Speaker 1: incredibly good. But in this game, like you're saying, what

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Speaker 1: the hell do we do here? The value is all

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Speaker 1: over Chicago. I think the line's up to five and

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Speaker 1: a half. It's Kirk Cousins outdoors. We've just seen a

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Speaker 1: difference with this Minnesota team outdoors, they just they've they've

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Speaker 1: been the games they've won this year outdoors, it's always

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Speaker 1: those cloths games like a game they barely drag out

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Speaker 1: and win. And we're getting a good number here the Bears.

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Speaker 1: If this was just four weeks ago, me and Chad

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Speaker 1: would guaranteed have this one in our contest because we

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Speaker 1: just love this Bears team we have. But like you

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Speaker 1: just said, their defense, I don't want to say they've

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Speaker 1: put Chad, but we've seen these second half of them

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Speaker 1: just getting blown out, like it's multiple games now that

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Speaker 1: their defense in the second half just absolutely blown out.

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Speaker 1: So unfortunately, contest, we can't play Bears first half, which

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Speaker 1: to me is the move now with the Bears, it

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Speaker 1: just seems like that's what you want to play. So

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Speaker 1: I'll take it first half, but for full game, I'm

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Speaker 1: just gonna stay away. So I most books right now,

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Speaker 1: I've been able to get three and a half on

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Speaker 1: them first half. That to me is the move of

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Speaker 1: the Bears this week. Fields run for one fifty in

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Speaker 1: the first quarter again, break the record, sit out the

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Speaker 1: rest of the game. I think every Bears fan just

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Speaker 1: wants that exact scenario. You've been playing a lot of

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Speaker 1: first halfs. I've been seeing you pop them into the

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Speaker 1: Action network gap. Uh. That's been a nice little play

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Speaker 1: that I don't always take advantage of. Yeah, especially when

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Speaker 1: there's teams like the Colts where you just ride those

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Speaker 1: trends of that fading them. I've just been fading the

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Speaker 1: Colts first half and then that fourth quarter. Bet Like,

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Speaker 1: I think they haven't covered a fourth quarter. Maybe they'd

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Speaker 1: have to have Evan look into it, but it might

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Speaker 1: have been like two covers of a fourth quarter of

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Speaker 1: this year. Um, and since that Vikings meltdown, they've had none. Um.

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Speaker 1: A little foreshadowing though, That's a team I might love

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Speaker 1: this week. Oh boy, Yeah, that's the next game? Is uh?

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Speaker 1: The Colts? Right now, we're looking at them as two

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Speaker 1: and a half point favorites at home against the Houston Texans.

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Speaker 1: What are we gonna do? What are we gonna do

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Speaker 1: this one? Because everything in my body is screaming Colts

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Speaker 1: at home against a team tanking for their first pick. Likes.

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Speaker 1: Is Saturday smart enough to tank this game? I don't

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Speaker 1: think he is, because that's the move here. This is

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Speaker 1: a divisional game, the culture playing for nothing? They would

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Speaker 1: they should love to tank this game and make Houston

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Speaker 1: not have the number one pick, but I don't see

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Speaker 1: it happened. So this is a lot of game theory

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Speaker 1: playing here with these two teams and these gms and

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Speaker 1: everyone matching up here where it's like, I think the

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Speaker 1: Cults are really dumb and they're gonna try really hard

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Speaker 1: where the Texans I can already see it now. They're

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Speaker 1: gonna rest a couple of guys. I feel like that's

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Speaker 1: gonna be something that's gonna happen you. We're gonna see

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Speaker 1: a bunch of guys pop up with our injury reports.

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Speaker 1: So um, right now it's supposed to be Sam Ellinger

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Speaker 1: being the quarterback here. Um, that's the only reason I'm

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Speaker 1: making this. Matt Ryan is the backup. I think Saturday

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Speaker 1: announced it today right, So to me, if we're betting this,

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Speaker 1: the hope is kid Layson Negg. In the first quarter,

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Speaker 1: they bring in Matt Ryan and he tries as hard

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Speaker 1: as he can just win one last game before he

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Speaker 1: heads off after just I mean, we talked about the

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Speaker 1: last time he played was the greatest coming back in

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Speaker 1: NFL history. I just think he wants to erase that.

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Speaker 1: So it's just all line up here. I know for

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Speaker 1: a fact a bunch of pros are gonna be on

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Speaker 1: the colts with me, because it's just what I talked

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Speaker 1: to that last week chat. I full unbelieve they had quit,

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Speaker 1: and that looked like a team that quit against the Giant, right,

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Speaker 1: I mean, that looks like a team that fully given up.

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Speaker 1: I have to come back on the other side though,

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Speaker 1: where it's the last week of the year. We've seen

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Speaker 1: these teams that look like they're dead just for that

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Speaker 1: one week. I mean, you've read that stat last week

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Speaker 1: about these teams that are playing for nothing for some reason,

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Speaker 1: show up. This is this is just one of those

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Speaker 1: games where I I normally would take Houston here, especially

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Speaker 1: if you got the plus three. But I'm looking at

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Speaker 1: it where that's what the book's gonna trap people with.

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Speaker 1: People are just gonna bet this plus three because it's

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Speaker 1: gonna be this cold team. I mean, who's gonna be

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Speaker 1: taking the Monastery. It feels like the Bucks last week.

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Speaker 1: So I'm not gonna make this, my Simon says. But

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Speaker 1: as we sit here right now, I've already bet the

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Speaker 1: minus two and a half. I just can't help myself.

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Speaker 1: Oh wow, Well, Hey, Simon says, right now, is the

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Speaker 1: Titans plus six and a half? All right? But uh,

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Speaker 1: I don't know. Man might not be smart enough to

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Speaker 1: to tank this game. But lovely Smith, and it's not

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Speaker 1: about smart enough. I just don't think he plays it

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Speaker 1: that way. No, I think I think Levy is gonna

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Speaker 1: keep on trying. But I just is it impossible now

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Speaker 1: for the Bears to get the number one pick because

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Speaker 1: the Houston has that tie? Well, I don't think so.

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Speaker 1: I read something today where it was not inconceivable that

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Speaker 1: the Bears could still get the number one pick, So

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Speaker 1: maybe that plays into it too, But I just, yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's I feel like it was gonna be hard for

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Speaker 1: me to convince you, but we'll see. Like sand this

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Speaker 1: line moved all the way up to minus four and

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Speaker 1: you knew all the pros were just slamming the Colts.

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Speaker 1: I mean, that's good, that's great value. If it's minus

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Speaker 1: two and a half in the contest, it's kind of

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Speaker 1: like the books. Like I just said, it's just it's

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Speaker 1: a it's a good spot to take a team that

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Speaker 1: is just dead right now. So now we're talking about

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Speaker 1: closing line value and the contest again, just the fact

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Speaker 1: that it's minus two and a half of me wants

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Speaker 1: shame on me. No for me, shame on you for

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Speaker 1: me twice, shame on me. Um. The next game, the

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Speaker 1: next game on the board is the Bengals and the Ravens,

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Speaker 1: and the Bengals are six and a half point favorites.

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Speaker 1: I think we gotta skip it. We just don't know

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Speaker 1: enough about um circumstances for the game and what the

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Speaker 1: what what it's gonna mean. Well, I was gonna love

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Speaker 1: the Bengals here just because it was gonna lamar coming

359
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Speaker 1: off extended rest, going up against a really good defense,

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Speaker 1: like the Bengals are a good defense, it's fair to

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Speaker 1: say at this point like they played pretty well all year.

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Speaker 1: There was a lot of points though, so it was

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Speaker 1: one of those where Phils seven I would have been

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Speaker 1: on the Ravens and six and a half. Right now,

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Speaker 1: I'll take the Bengals. But like Chad just said, well

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Speaker 1: wait later in the week to beout this one. We

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Speaker 1: don't mean more clarity before I put money on it. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: well we'll see if we get some updates by Thursday.

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Speaker 1: Um Jets Dolphins Dolphins now one point favorites. I mean

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Speaker 1: one point underdogs on the road. Boy, that's office game

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Speaker 1: played out exactly the way we said it would last

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Speaker 1: week it was two and a half. We liked the

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Speaker 1: Dolphins a two and a half. Even with Teddy Bridgewater out,

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Speaker 1: they still find a way to backdoor that game. The

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Speaker 1: pictures are just a terrible team. Um, but do we

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Speaker 1: think and and I think I think Mike White as

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Speaker 1: everybody's savior that kind of got you know, he got

378
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Speaker 1: revealed the other day. So Skyler Thompson against Mike White,

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Speaker 1: Oh gross. Yeah. And the that that's the craziest thing too,

380
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Speaker 1: with Teddy covers as a dog where even when he's

381
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Speaker 1: not a game, he still covers that line. Um, I

382
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Speaker 1: don't have to do here, chat. I feel like the

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Speaker 1: same thing where I got sucked in last week in Seattle.

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Speaker 1: You take the better defense where it's the Jets by far,

385
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Speaker 1: and I couldn't believe they blew that game where like

386
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Speaker 1: Caft did nothing, like they shut him down, Saw shut

387
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Speaker 1: him down the whole game. But Mike White just on

388
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Speaker 1: those fourth downs and everything the red zone, he just

389
00:20:07,600 --> 00:20:11,639
Speaker 1: couldn't get it done. Um, I'm not sure what to

390
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Speaker 1: do with this one. Like if it was Teddy Bridgewater

391
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Speaker 1: under three at home. I'd be all over this Miami team. Um,

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Speaker 1: but as it stands right now, no clue those are

393
00:20:23,359 --> 00:20:28,800
Speaker 1: not the circumstances we've been given in any way. We

394
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Speaker 1: don't know. It's definitely not Ted Teddy Bridgewater under three

395
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Speaker 1: at home. It could be Skylo Thompson is a favorite,

396
00:20:36,200 --> 00:20:38,240
Speaker 1: right and so to me, I just I just passed

397
00:20:38,240 --> 00:20:43,439
Speaker 1: on that. Uh. Panthers who had a real chance. Where

398
00:20:43,480 --> 00:20:46,600
Speaker 1: did they have a chance? And they were making me

399
00:20:46,680 --> 00:20:51,040
Speaker 1: really nervous against the box with two times having ten

400
00:20:51,119 --> 00:20:57,520
Speaker 1: point leads, um, and yet they found a way. Sam Donald,

401
00:20:58,400 --> 00:21:01,959
Speaker 1: he's Sam Donald, you know what I mean. Yeah, he

402
00:21:02,000 --> 00:21:04,880
Speaker 1: did what we needed him to do. Tom Brady came

403
00:21:04,920 --> 00:21:10,199
Speaker 1: back into Tom Brady form. Uh, they covered going away

404
00:21:11,520 --> 00:21:13,960
Speaker 1: against the Saints team that did exactly what we needed

405
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Speaker 1: them to do. Their defense played great, they had to

406
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Speaker 1: pick six. Um. I mean, the Panthers are planning the Saints.

407
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Speaker 1: So Saints or three and a half point favorites. The

408
00:21:34,560 --> 00:21:39,760
Speaker 1: are you thinking Panthers? And I think in Panthers that's

409
00:21:39,800 --> 00:21:41,359
Speaker 1: my issue, that's my issue where it just feels like

410
00:21:41,400 --> 00:21:43,920
Speaker 1: it's the same thing as last week where they're they're

411
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Speaker 1: gonna they're trying to suck in the Panther's line value.

412
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Speaker 1: I mean they were all up, they went all up

413
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Speaker 1: to plus four on Sunday, and those people are feeling

414
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Speaker 1: like geniuses for I don't know, the entire game. I mean,

415
00:21:57,560 --> 00:22:00,639
Speaker 1: that was just a classic. The books knew exactly what

416
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Speaker 1: they're doing. And when you take a step back, it's

417
00:22:03,600 --> 00:22:06,200
Speaker 1: always funny where it's before the game, there's always that

418
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Speaker 1: nervous but then afterwards you go, well, of course at

419
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Speaker 1: home game Brady against Sam Donald for the Division, you

420
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Speaker 1: just always take Brady there. And that's just one of

421
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Speaker 1: those sitch scenarios of Brady. He's that guy, like he's

422
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Speaker 1: that guy. We've seen it the whole time where they

423
00:22:23,800 --> 00:22:25,439
Speaker 1: were dead in that game. I mean, what were they

424
00:22:25,480 --> 00:22:29,200
Speaker 1: down fourteen nothing at one point and big played to

425
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Speaker 1: uh Mike Evans, which we talked about their secondary in Carolina,

426
00:22:33,480 --> 00:22:35,639
Speaker 1: and then sure enough later in that quarter, big play

427
00:22:35,880 --> 00:22:37,879
Speaker 1: to Mike Evans again, and then what do you know,

428
00:22:38,160 --> 00:22:40,160
Speaker 1: late in the third quarter, a big play to Mike Evans.

429
00:22:40,200 --> 00:22:43,680
Speaker 1: It just felt like not that they flipped back to

430
00:22:43,800 --> 00:22:47,400
Speaker 1: that old, you know, super Bowl winning style, but that's

431
00:22:47,400 --> 00:22:49,480
Speaker 1: how they won, right. They took big shots and that

432
00:22:49,520 --> 00:22:51,800
Speaker 1: hadn't been there all year. So not only did we

433
00:22:51,840 --> 00:22:55,080
Speaker 1: get crazy lucky with that Buccaneers game, but we kind

434
00:22:55,080 --> 00:22:57,280
Speaker 1: of nailed it to a tea exactly how it's gonna go.

435
00:22:57,320 --> 00:22:58,680
Speaker 1: Where it was just gonna be the game. We're gonna

436
00:22:58,760 --> 00:23:02,520
Speaker 1: tack Caroline of secondary. So in this matchup, do the

437
00:23:02,560 --> 00:23:05,920
Speaker 1: Saints have Mike Evans to attack that secondary of Carolina?

438
00:23:06,440 --> 00:23:08,560
Speaker 1: So we kind of erased that right there. So there's nothing.

439
00:23:08,560 --> 00:23:10,159
Speaker 1: There's not that for the Saints. They don't have some

440
00:23:10,240 --> 00:23:16,040
Speaker 1: big play, so we're back to yeah, right, we got

441
00:23:16,080 --> 00:23:19,200
Speaker 1: any Dulton now. Um, So that's why I like, I'm

442
00:23:19,240 --> 00:23:21,000
Speaker 1: not gonna be as confident in the Saints this week,

443
00:23:21,600 --> 00:23:24,000
Speaker 1: but I will Paul, is not that Carolina. I want

444
00:23:24,000 --> 00:23:25,600
Speaker 1: to hear what the pros are doing this one because

445
00:23:26,080 --> 00:23:29,120
Speaker 1: I'm right there with Chat. My initial instinct is Carolina

446
00:23:29,200 --> 00:23:32,840
Speaker 1: strength is against the run. That's how the Saints win games.

447
00:23:32,880 --> 00:23:37,320
Speaker 1: I mean the Eagles not they did nothing, but it

448
00:23:37,440 --> 00:23:40,600
Speaker 1: was thirteen nothing. The Eagles had a touchdown called back

449
00:23:40,640 --> 00:23:43,240
Speaker 1: on like a b S holding call that would have

450
00:23:43,280 --> 00:23:45,000
Speaker 1: flipped the game because if the Eagles were scored there

451
00:23:45,000 --> 00:23:47,600
Speaker 1: and scored again, it would have been fourteen thirteen. That

452
00:23:47,600 --> 00:23:49,400
Speaker 1: would have changed the Saints. The Saints would have started

453
00:23:49,400 --> 00:23:52,520
Speaker 1: to pass the ball because in that game, honestly, the

454
00:23:52,800 --> 00:23:55,520
Speaker 1: Taysom Hill thing, it's like, that's that's the team, the

455
00:23:55,560 --> 00:23:57,960
Speaker 1: thing that gets that offensive going sometimes where they can't

456
00:23:57,960 --> 00:24:00,240
Speaker 1: move the ball, so you bring him in, takeing Andy

457
00:24:00,240 --> 00:24:04,320
Speaker 1: off the field. Tyson can move the ball. So in

458
00:24:04,320 --> 00:24:06,600
Speaker 1: this matchup, Chat, I feel like it's a grinded out

459
00:24:06,640 --> 00:24:09,520
Speaker 1: the visional Game Week eighteen, I feel like I'm right

460
00:24:09,520 --> 00:24:11,000
Speaker 1: there with you on the Panthers. I just I don't

461
00:24:11,000 --> 00:24:12,600
Speaker 1: want to tell people to bet it yet and better

462
00:24:12,680 --> 00:24:13,960
Speaker 1: right now because I don't hear what the pros you're

463
00:24:13,960 --> 00:24:16,320
Speaker 1: doing with it, because it feels too good to be true.

464
00:24:16,359 --> 00:24:18,040
Speaker 1: I don't get why this number is not three. I

465
00:24:18,080 --> 00:24:21,639
Speaker 1: make this number three. I'm seeing three apps everywhere. So

466
00:24:22,560 --> 00:24:26,760
Speaker 1: it's a little fishy this long. It's it stinks, it's our,

467
00:24:26,880 --> 00:24:30,959
Speaker 1: it's our Alaskan bury the fish in the in the ground,

468
00:24:31,000 --> 00:24:36,000
Speaker 1: take it out, six months, eat it line. God, I'm

469
00:24:36,000 --> 00:24:39,080
Speaker 1: looking to get more out of the NFL this season. Well,

470
00:24:39,119 --> 00:24:41,720
Speaker 1: and that was the perfect time to download Fandel America's

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493
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494
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Speaker 1: or text next step to five three three two in

495
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Speaker 1: Arizona one eight eight eight seven eight nine seven seven

496
00:26:09,080 --> 00:26:13,399
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497
00:26:13,520 --> 00:26:16,800
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498
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Speaker 1: k S Gambling help dot com in Kansas one eight

499
00:26:20,680 --> 00:26:24,120
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500
00:26:24,200 --> 00:26:27,719
Speaker 1: seven seven eight Hope NY or text hope n Y.

501
00:26:27,920 --> 00:26:30,760
Speaker 1: In New York, Tennessee. Redline is one eight hundred eight

502
00:26:30,760 --> 00:26:33,639
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503
00:26:34,320 --> 00:26:38,800
Speaker 1: hundred in Wyoming, or visit www one eight hundred gambler

504
00:26:38,840 --> 00:26:42,959
Speaker 1: dot net in West Virginia. So the next game Patriots

505
00:26:42,960 --> 00:26:48,040
Speaker 1: Bills again, I'm hesitant to dive into it for all

506
00:26:48,040 --> 00:26:52,200
Speaker 1: the circumstances, both off the field and not really knowing

507
00:26:52,800 --> 00:26:56,200
Speaker 1: what's being played for at this point. So let's let's

508
00:26:56,200 --> 00:26:57,800
Speaker 1: hope that we can talk a little bit more deeply

509
00:26:57,880 --> 00:27:00,000
Speaker 1: about it. I can almost guarantee will be on the Patriots.

510
00:27:00,080 --> 00:27:01,800
Speaker 1: We will be the only people betting them this week.

511
00:27:01,840 --> 00:27:03,520
Speaker 1: But yeah, we'll just wait and see what this number

512
00:27:03,560 --> 00:27:05,760
Speaker 1: ends up. Too early in the week to talk about it.

513
00:27:07,160 --> 00:27:13,679
Speaker 1: Brown's visiting the Steelers Cleveland plus two and a half. Yeah, exactly,

514
00:27:13,840 --> 00:27:16,000
Speaker 1: like me and Chad don't have a choice. We have

515
00:27:16,080 --> 00:27:19,960
Speaker 1: to take Cleveland. They're playing for nothing. Pittsburgh's playing for everything.

516
00:27:20,480 --> 00:27:23,879
Speaker 1: They always lose this game. Already cashed my over tickets

517
00:27:23,920 --> 00:27:26,919
Speaker 1: on Pittsburgh. I literally feel satisfied for this season. We

518
00:27:26,960 --> 00:27:29,479
Speaker 1: believed in Tomlin and this rag tag team. We hit

519
00:27:29,520 --> 00:27:31,840
Speaker 1: the over of the seven and a half. This they

520
00:27:31,840 --> 00:27:34,320
Speaker 1: cannot win this game. They almost always lose this game,

521
00:27:34,400 --> 00:27:37,359
Speaker 1: especially when it's the Browns, who they've been a corpse.

522
00:27:37,400 --> 00:27:39,760
Speaker 1: I mean, even against Washington, it wasn't DeShawn Watson that

523
00:27:39,800 --> 00:27:41,240
Speaker 1: really did anything in that game. It was kind of

524
00:27:41,240 --> 00:27:43,439
Speaker 1: Carson Wentz just kept turning the ball over, giving them

525
00:27:43,440 --> 00:27:46,199
Speaker 1: short fields. So you know what, I almost I disagree

526
00:27:46,240 --> 00:27:51,000
Speaker 1: with you. DeShawn Watson, I thought played really really well

527
00:27:51,400 --> 00:27:54,000
Speaker 1: and had a lot of really good throws, especially to

528
00:27:54,160 --> 00:27:57,119
Speaker 1: Maria Cooper, like he just like it looked like DeShawn

529
00:27:57,160 --> 00:27:59,840
Speaker 1: Watson used to look. It was like a mari though

530
00:28:00,160 --> 00:28:02,360
Speaker 1: Mary made a couple of huge plays himself. But I'll

531
00:28:02,359 --> 00:28:04,080
Speaker 1: agree with that he he hasn't been as bad as

532
00:28:04,119 --> 00:28:07,639
Speaker 1: he looked. I'll give him that Watson, which was terrible,

533
00:28:07,680 --> 00:28:11,240
Speaker 1: Like he looked completely lost. So yeah, just like last week,

534
00:28:11,280 --> 00:28:13,720
Speaker 1: that Cleveland line stinked against Washington. I mean it moved

535
00:28:13,760 --> 00:28:17,040
Speaker 1: down to one one and a half throw A really

536
00:28:17,080 --> 00:28:19,920
Speaker 1: smart group came in heavy on Washington. It was shot

537
00:28:19,960 --> 00:28:21,560
Speaker 1: at all up to two and a half before kick,

538
00:28:21,680 --> 00:28:24,720
Speaker 1: and I mean that game was never in doubt for

539
00:28:24,760 --> 00:28:27,480
Speaker 1: the Browns. So this, this line does not make sense.

540
00:28:28,160 --> 00:28:31,720
Speaker 1: I made this line minus three. The books know what

541
00:28:31,720 --> 00:28:34,879
Speaker 1: they're doing, like making this two and a half. Everyone's

542
00:28:34,920 --> 00:28:37,080
Speaker 1: going to be taking Pittsburgh like they think they're the

543
00:28:37,119 --> 00:28:39,200
Speaker 1: ones that care because they're playing for something. And Chad,

544
00:28:39,560 --> 00:28:40,960
Speaker 1: I don't know if you have the stat handy, but

545
00:28:41,000 --> 00:28:43,440
Speaker 1: it's just that's all. You kind of fade the team

546
00:28:43,480 --> 00:28:47,880
Speaker 1: that needs this game in the spot. Well yeah you do. Um. Also,

547
00:28:47,960 --> 00:28:51,520
Speaker 1: by the way, I'm an idiot, Deshaun Watson. I watched

548
00:28:51,520 --> 00:28:54,440
Speaker 1: the game. I must only remember the good throws he

549
00:28:54,520 --> 00:28:56,640
Speaker 1: made to Marto Cooper, which were like four or five.

550
00:28:57,200 --> 00:29:00,080
Speaker 1: I was nine of eighteen in the game. So it

551
00:29:00,200 --> 00:29:04,120
Speaker 1: wasn't he wasn't that good. I'll say it's so late

552
00:29:04,120 --> 00:29:06,400
Speaker 1: where I was like, maybe Chad's right. I could have

553
00:29:06,440 --> 00:29:11,400
Speaker 1: sworn he played like that was very classic. The stat

554
00:29:11,440 --> 00:29:15,200
Speaker 1: you're talking about is eliminated teams in the final two

555
00:29:15,240 --> 00:29:18,400
Speaker 1: weeks of the season playing teams that need to win

556
00:29:19,240 --> 00:29:22,960
Speaker 1: cover at a st clip the past thirty two years,

557
00:29:23,000 --> 00:29:25,240
Speaker 1: a sample size of more than a hundred and fifty games.

558
00:29:25,240 --> 00:29:30,080
Speaker 1: So add the Browns to our list of Panthers and

559
00:29:30,200 --> 00:29:32,320
Speaker 1: the Titans and the Patriots of teams that we will

560
00:29:32,400 --> 00:29:35,720
Speaker 1: definitely be spending our last weekend at the NFL season

561
00:29:35,760 --> 00:29:38,040
Speaker 1: trying to get the higher of the money betting on.

562
00:29:38,480 --> 00:29:40,400
Speaker 1: I mean to me that that's either big balls or

563
00:29:40,440 --> 00:29:42,400
Speaker 1: a foxhole, because even the more you just talked about

564
00:29:42,440 --> 00:29:45,400
Speaker 1: it just sounds I think as I was talking about it,

565
00:29:45,480 --> 00:29:48,040
Speaker 1: to start to feel like it's either it's either the

566
00:29:48,080 --> 00:29:52,680
Speaker 1: Patriots or the Browns. And we've been talking doing foxhol

567
00:29:52,720 --> 00:29:55,680
Speaker 1: on Tuesdays. I feel more comfortable with the Browns. Uh,

568
00:29:55,720 --> 00:29:58,120
Speaker 1: it's not my exact decision. I have my exact division

569
00:29:58,160 --> 00:30:01,160
Speaker 1: picked out. Um, so let's make the Browns the foxhol

570
00:30:01,320 --> 00:30:03,520
Speaker 1: love it. We got Tennessee and the Browns right now.

571
00:30:04,040 --> 00:30:08,040
Speaker 1: This is this is week eighteen at his finest alright,

572
00:30:08,080 --> 00:30:11,800
Speaker 1: so look I played that stat last week. It burned

573
00:30:11,840 --> 00:30:15,600
Speaker 1: me with the Rams, burn me with the Colts, and

574
00:30:15,640 --> 00:30:17,840
Speaker 1: that the Rams this week on the road six and

575
00:30:17,880 --> 00:30:21,760
Speaker 1: a half at Seattle. I have to do it. I

576
00:30:21,840 --> 00:30:24,120
Speaker 1: have to do it. They just got blown out, Chad,

577
00:30:24,360 --> 00:30:28,040
Speaker 1: Seattle just blew up one big at home. We have

578
00:30:28,160 --> 00:30:30,200
Speaker 1: to do it. No brainer. This line Shreek be four

579
00:30:30,200 --> 00:30:32,560
Speaker 1: and a half, make it four and a half getting

580
00:30:32,560 --> 00:30:36,320
Speaker 1: two free points here. Um, just one of the few

581
00:30:36,360 --> 00:30:39,600
Speaker 1: bets I bet right away when it came out. I

582
00:30:39,640 --> 00:30:45,440
Speaker 1: was with you that. You know, Shawks. Not that it's

583
00:30:45,480 --> 00:30:47,400
Speaker 1: my favorite story this year, but it's definitely up there,

584
00:30:47,440 --> 00:30:51,520
Speaker 1: Like this whole thing with Gino Redemption. They fell off

585
00:30:51,520 --> 00:30:53,720
Speaker 1: a cliff and they're still in it now in this

586
00:30:53,840 --> 00:30:57,640
Speaker 1: final week. It's it's a crazy fun story. We have

587
00:30:57,680 --> 00:30:59,320
Speaker 1: to take the value of it, Like we're getting free

588
00:30:59,360 --> 00:31:01,600
Speaker 1: points here because human element of that. People just taking

589
00:31:01,640 --> 00:31:04,680
Speaker 1: them because of that story. So another team that would

590
00:31:04,680 --> 00:31:08,680
Speaker 1: be heavily teased money line bet this week, see Seahawks. Um,

591
00:31:08,920 --> 00:31:10,760
Speaker 1: they have everything to play for. Rams have nothing to

592
00:31:10,800 --> 00:31:14,760
Speaker 1: play for. We love the Rams, like it's so early,

593
00:31:14,840 --> 00:31:16,880
Speaker 1: but all the bets and all the money is on

594
00:31:16,960 --> 00:31:19,120
Speaker 1: the Rams. I was hoping this might go a little

595
00:31:19,120 --> 00:31:22,120
Speaker 1: bit bigger, I mean a little bit higher. Yeah, I

596
00:31:22,160 --> 00:31:24,360
Speaker 1: still think. I still think it's pro money though, because

597
00:31:24,360 --> 00:31:26,080
Speaker 1: it's that it's so late in the year. I feel

598
00:31:26,080 --> 00:31:29,600
Speaker 1: like that's who's betting early in the week. Where um

599
00:31:29,640 --> 00:31:32,520
Speaker 1: that that tends to slaying it? Where you know, come

600
00:31:32,680 --> 00:31:35,320
Speaker 1: Thursday Friday, I bet you the line shifts more fifty

601
00:31:35,360 --> 00:31:39,320
Speaker 1: fifty or more towards the Seahawks. So do we wait

602
00:31:39,360 --> 00:31:42,040
Speaker 1: for seven? We tell people to wait for seven? Yeah, yeah,

603
00:31:42,080 --> 00:31:44,520
Speaker 1: definitely I would. I would wait for seven. Even if

604
00:31:44,520 --> 00:31:46,120
Speaker 1: it moves the six, I wouldn't pay it because I

605
00:31:46,160 --> 00:31:49,480
Speaker 1: do think it could get bumped back up. All right,

606
00:31:50,040 --> 00:31:51,600
Speaker 1: I did because I was about to bet it. But

607
00:31:51,600 --> 00:31:52,800
Speaker 1: I think I want to wait until it gets to

608
00:31:52,840 --> 00:31:58,160
Speaker 1: seven because I think it will. Yeah, let's see. But

609
00:31:58,240 --> 00:32:01,840
Speaker 1: I agree. So now, all of a sudden, we love

610
00:32:01,880 --> 00:32:05,800
Speaker 1: the Rams, the Browns, the Panthers, the Titans, and the Patriots. Yeah.

611
00:32:05,800 --> 00:32:08,320
Speaker 1: I like a lot of games this week, and all

612
00:32:08,320 --> 00:32:10,640
Speaker 1: of a sudden love the whole board, and we haven't

613
00:32:10,640 --> 00:32:12,840
Speaker 1: even gotten to the game that I love the most.

614
00:32:13,000 --> 00:32:18,240
Speaker 1: That is my executive decision. The Denver Broncos plus three

615
00:32:18,280 --> 00:32:22,600
Speaker 1: and a half at home against the Titans. What are

616
00:32:22,600 --> 00:32:24,600
Speaker 1: we gonna I mean against the Chargers? What are we

617
00:32:24,640 --> 00:32:27,880
Speaker 1: gonna do here? The Chargers on the road as favorites

618
00:32:28,000 --> 00:32:32,120
Speaker 1: with nothing to play for. Yeah, and a team that

619
00:32:33,160 --> 00:32:37,040
Speaker 1: this This is probably the wrong time to back Russ

620
00:32:37,040 --> 00:32:39,560
Speaker 1: after playing such a good game, but it does feel

621
00:32:39,640 --> 00:32:41,800
Speaker 1: like that's the rare instance of the got rid of

622
00:32:41,800 --> 00:32:45,640
Speaker 1: the coach. The teammates all stuck up for him last

623
00:32:45,680 --> 00:32:47,640
Speaker 1: week all over the internet, and then he spoke about

624
00:32:47,680 --> 00:32:49,200
Speaker 1: how much that meant to him, and that was kind

625
00:32:49,200 --> 00:32:51,840
Speaker 1: of a rallying cry for that team. How can we

626
00:32:51,920 --> 00:32:53,680
Speaker 1: not It's a team that's trying to finish on a

627
00:32:53,720 --> 00:32:56,280
Speaker 1: good note after abysmal year against a team that, like

628
00:32:56,360 --> 00:32:59,520
Speaker 1: Chad just said, we expect them the rest starters. So

629
00:33:00,040 --> 00:33:01,600
Speaker 1: I've actually grabbed the three and a half just in

630
00:33:01,680 --> 00:33:04,720
Speaker 1: case that comes out, where the word gets out that

631
00:33:04,760 --> 00:33:07,440
Speaker 1: Herbert's gonna play only their first half or he's not

632
00:33:07,440 --> 00:33:09,520
Speaker 1: gonna play at all, because I could see this line

633
00:33:09,560 --> 00:33:11,680
Speaker 1: moving back to a pick if it comes out that

634
00:33:11,680 --> 00:33:15,960
Speaker 1: he's not playing. So, uh, yeah, it makes sense. You

635
00:33:16,120 --> 00:33:17,640
Speaker 1: love this game. It's just a good number and a

636
00:33:17,640 --> 00:33:21,120
Speaker 1: good spot for this Denver team. It's already moving, it's

637
00:33:21,160 --> 00:33:25,720
Speaker 1: already moving fan duel and a minute ago it was

638
00:33:25,760 --> 00:33:31,760
Speaker 1: at three and a half and now it's down to three. Yeah,

639
00:33:31,960 --> 00:33:35,320
Speaker 1: you know, can you shop it around? That's what happens.

640
00:33:36,560 --> 00:33:39,680
Speaker 1: But I still love it. I'm I'm giving myself the

641
00:33:39,720 --> 00:33:44,960
Speaker 1: three and a half. Uh, That's what I'm saying. It's

642
00:33:44,960 --> 00:33:46,320
Speaker 1: technically you would have had it if we've done it

643
00:33:46,320 --> 00:33:48,280
Speaker 1: earlier in the day, if we dine earlier the day.

644
00:33:48,280 --> 00:33:51,200
Speaker 1: I definitely I'll give you that. Now, we've got a

645
00:33:51,240 --> 00:33:55,760
Speaker 1: Giants team that may rest guys against an Eagles team

646
00:33:55,800 --> 00:33:58,560
Speaker 1: that still has a chance, that needs to win the clinch,

647
00:33:59,040 --> 00:34:01,360
Speaker 1: and the Eagles are decent size favorites. We're talking about

648
00:34:01,440 --> 00:34:05,880
Speaker 1: what are we talking about here? Favorites? How do you

649
00:34:05,920 --> 00:34:09,400
Speaker 1: do with that? Cannot wait to have this money line

650
00:34:09,520 --> 00:34:13,800
Speaker 1: in our round robin this week. I'm not touching the spread,

651
00:34:14,280 --> 00:34:16,360
Speaker 1: but I will be all over that Giants money. The

652
00:34:16,400 --> 00:34:19,399
Speaker 1: line playing spoiler in this game. I love it. I

653
00:34:19,440 --> 00:34:23,560
Speaker 1: love this whole thing of Hurts is gonna come back

654
00:34:23,640 --> 00:34:25,400
Speaker 1: now and that's gonna be the reason the Eagles are

655
00:34:25,400 --> 00:34:27,960
Speaker 1: gonna win this game and lock up. And the spreads

656
00:34:28,000 --> 00:34:31,160
Speaker 1: so huge. Um. The public will be all over this.

657
00:34:31,239 --> 00:34:33,200
Speaker 1: The public. Everyone's gonna bet in this four team with

658
00:34:33,239 --> 00:34:35,399
Speaker 1: this Giants team, and I think they should. It's like

659
00:34:36,239 --> 00:34:41,040
Speaker 1: a massive number, um, But we have no idea what's

660
00:34:41,040 --> 00:34:44,720
Speaker 1: gonna happen here. Like that. Their head coach, he's no dummy,

661
00:34:44,800 --> 00:34:46,960
Speaker 1: he's smart. He knows they're probably gonna match up with

662
00:34:47,000 --> 00:34:50,399
Speaker 1: this Eagles team in the playoffs, So I highly doubt

663
00:34:50,440 --> 00:34:53,040
Speaker 1: he'll show anything. Could get a team that comes out

664
00:34:53,040 --> 00:34:56,880
Speaker 1: completely flat, that does nothing. So you're you're risking your

665
00:34:56,920 --> 00:34:58,680
Speaker 1: own money if you're gonna take them on the spread here,

666
00:34:58,719 --> 00:35:01,600
Speaker 1: But it probably is what the help was gonna do. Um,

667
00:35:01,680 --> 00:35:03,520
Speaker 1: I'll just take the money line. It's just a fun

668
00:35:03,600 --> 00:35:07,960
Speaker 1: spoiler game of divisional arrival. The guy comes back and

669
00:35:08,040 --> 00:35:10,680
Speaker 1: he's rusty and hurts, but we all agree if he

670
00:35:10,760 --> 00:35:13,759
Speaker 1: was back against that Saints team, they blow them out.

671
00:35:13,760 --> 00:35:15,400
Speaker 1: I mean the Saints only a thirteen points. I think

672
00:35:15,440 --> 00:35:19,480
Speaker 1: any Dalton got sacked UM like eight times. So it's

673
00:35:19,480 --> 00:35:22,320
Speaker 1: just one of those where I agreed with people. I

674
00:35:22,680 --> 00:35:24,879
Speaker 1: did think Mahomes was the m v P this year.

675
00:35:24,920 --> 00:35:28,400
Speaker 1: I mean what he did without Tyr Hill is incredible. Um,

676
00:35:28,480 --> 00:35:30,279
Speaker 1: And we can all say the a f C is

677
00:35:30,480 --> 00:35:33,000
Speaker 1: it's harder. I mean, it's just it's a harder conference

678
00:35:33,040 --> 00:35:36,640
Speaker 1: this year. But we saw what mikex hurt so special.

679
00:35:36,680 --> 00:35:40,560
Speaker 1: It's like you need to be able to make those throws,

680
00:35:40,640 --> 00:35:42,680
Speaker 1: and not everyone can make those throws. That's why I

681
00:35:42,680 --> 00:35:44,879
Speaker 1: feel like Hurts took such a big step this year.

682
00:35:44,920 --> 00:35:50,080
Speaker 1: So um yeah, Like as an Eagles fan, one of

683
00:35:50,080 --> 00:35:53,000
Speaker 1: the one of the darker times and our fandom of

684
00:35:53,680 --> 00:35:56,000
Speaker 1: you know, Lane Johnson's out, everyone's just getting hurt on

685
00:35:56,000 --> 00:35:59,600
Speaker 1: our team head into the playoffs. I'm not gonna lie.

686
00:35:59,719 --> 00:36:02,400
Speaker 1: If Giants played their starters and this line was five,

687
00:36:02,680 --> 00:36:04,960
Speaker 1: I would be terrified the Eagles would lose this game.

688
00:36:05,040 --> 00:36:07,960
Speaker 1: It just it's the bad ju ju them losing three

689
00:36:07,960 --> 00:36:10,839
Speaker 1: straight games and not getting the one seed. It could

690
00:36:10,920 --> 00:36:13,319
Speaker 1: easily happen like the four nineers. We could wake up

691
00:36:13,360 --> 00:36:17,440
Speaker 1: and Brock Purty could lead that team to a one seed. Um,

692
00:36:17,480 --> 00:36:21,080
Speaker 1: it's a real possibility. But obviously Vegas doesn't think it's

693
00:36:21,080 --> 00:36:23,680
Speaker 1: gonna happen. This line is fourteen. I'm just looking at

694
00:36:23,719 --> 00:36:25,880
Speaker 1: the action app here. Chat. It's all the same thing.

695
00:36:25,920 --> 00:36:28,160
Speaker 1: All the money, all the bets have poured in on

696
00:36:28,239 --> 00:36:30,600
Speaker 1: the Giants that could just be pros, but I'm assuming

697
00:36:30,600 --> 00:36:35,680
Speaker 1: it's public as well because that's just such a huge number. Well, look, uh,

698
00:36:36,200 --> 00:36:41,680
Speaker 1: the team Eaters mentioned they're two touchdown favorites against the Cardinals.

699
00:36:44,680 --> 00:36:46,920
Speaker 1: I might take the Cardinals in that game. I'm definitely

700
00:36:46,920 --> 00:36:49,960
Speaker 1: taking them. It's like wed another game of I think

701
00:36:50,000 --> 00:36:52,040
Speaker 1: we have to throw this in them money lying around Robin.

702
00:36:52,200 --> 00:36:56,880
Speaker 1: It's just an inflated spread because one team has nothing

703
00:36:56,920 --> 00:36:59,160
Speaker 1: to play for and one team does. The team the

704
00:36:59,160 --> 00:37:03,440
Speaker 1: forty Niners just play for the number one seed. Fair argument.

705
00:37:03,480 --> 00:37:06,640
Speaker 1: Everyone's gonna say they just had their stinker of a game, right,

706
00:37:06,640 --> 00:37:10,840
Speaker 1: and now they'll get right against this horrible um Arizona

707
00:37:10,880 --> 00:37:13,600
Speaker 1: team that just literally took Atlanta to the wire. Right.

708
00:37:13,640 --> 00:37:16,360
Speaker 1: They just played a really close to themselves. So I

709
00:37:16,440 --> 00:37:18,480
Speaker 1: don't know if this makes our contest. Who knows. May

710
00:37:18,480 --> 00:37:20,759
Speaker 1: about change by Thursday, but as we sit here right now,

711
00:37:20,800 --> 00:37:27,520
Speaker 1: it's just the fear is that four nineis defense at

712
00:37:27,560 --> 00:37:30,600
Speaker 1: home in a in a tune up before the playoffs

713
00:37:30,600 --> 00:37:32,560
Speaker 1: where they need to get right after laying such an

714
00:37:32,560 --> 00:37:35,359
Speaker 1: egg the week before. We've been on them laying two

715
00:37:35,360 --> 00:37:36,879
Speaker 1: eggs in a row chat, which I don't think they've

716
00:37:36,920 --> 00:37:40,840
Speaker 1: done all season. But that that's a huge spread. I

717
00:37:40,880 --> 00:37:43,040
Speaker 1: feel like this, we're literally getting four points of value

718
00:37:43,080 --> 00:37:45,840
Speaker 1: here just because they're playing for the one seed in

719
00:37:45,880 --> 00:37:49,120
Speaker 1: Arizona's playing for nothing. So um, I already bet it.

720
00:37:49,560 --> 00:37:51,520
Speaker 1: I just I don't really know what to do with

721
00:37:51,520 --> 00:37:56,239
Speaker 1: it because it is such a huge number. Uh. We're

722
00:37:56,239 --> 00:38:00,879
Speaker 1: already like probably three teams into the money line round

723
00:38:00,960 --> 00:38:04,080
Speaker 1: Robin Parlay. We know we're gonna do the cards. We

724
00:38:04,120 --> 00:38:06,560
Speaker 1: know we're gonna do the Giants. I'm well going to

725
00:38:06,600 --> 00:38:09,680
Speaker 1: bet we're gonna put the Browns in there. Yeah, and

726
00:38:10,080 --> 00:38:13,799
Speaker 1: I feel like we might have to put Tennessee in. Oh.

727
00:38:13,840 --> 00:38:15,719
Speaker 1: I don't want that to happen. Yeah, I know we

728
00:38:15,760 --> 00:38:20,319
Speaker 1: love them, but look, ja Jaguars. We have so much

729
00:38:20,360 --> 00:38:24,960
Speaker 1: tied up in the Jags winning the division. That one

730
00:38:25,000 --> 00:38:30,920
Speaker 1: I feel pretty good about. I just mushed it. Uh. Listen,

731
00:38:31,200 --> 00:38:33,800
Speaker 1: the Cowboys are on the road of the Commanders, and

732
00:38:34,120 --> 00:38:37,480
Speaker 1: it's an interesting game because the Cowboys are five and

733
00:38:37,480 --> 00:38:40,840
Speaker 1: a half point favorites the Commanders. Ron Rivera all of

734
00:38:40,880 --> 00:38:42,680
Speaker 1: a sudden just became a train wreck, right, like, not

735
00:38:42,840 --> 00:38:45,840
Speaker 1: understanding they could be eliminated, you know, back and forth

736
00:38:45,840 --> 00:38:48,360
Speaker 1: between Heineke and Wentz if he really did go to

737
00:38:48,400 --> 00:38:51,160
Speaker 1: bed for Wentz. Why earlier in the year before they

738
00:38:51,200 --> 00:38:54,040
Speaker 1: signed him. Who sees Carson Wentz and says they think

739
00:38:54,040 --> 00:38:56,279
Speaker 1: he's a good quarterback. It's so funny to me when

740
00:38:56,320 --> 00:38:58,799
Speaker 1: coaches feel like they can go up there and say, well,

741
00:38:58,920 --> 00:39:00,759
Speaker 1: we look at the film and he's better than you think.

742
00:39:00,800 --> 00:39:02,719
Speaker 1: And everybody in the world has seen that he's not

743
00:39:02,840 --> 00:39:06,960
Speaker 1: very good for three years now he's broken. So now

744
00:39:07,000 --> 00:39:08,799
Speaker 1: the Cowboys are five and a half point favorites on

745
00:39:08,800 --> 00:39:10,640
Speaker 1: the road, and I feel like I got to take

746
00:39:10,680 --> 00:39:14,120
Speaker 1: the Commanders because it's too big of a number against

747
00:39:14,120 --> 00:39:15,960
Speaker 1: the coach and Mike McCarthy that I don't think it's

748
00:39:16,040 --> 00:39:18,200
Speaker 1: very good either. And it's a classic spot for the

749
00:39:18,239 --> 00:39:20,759
Speaker 1: Cowboys to screw it up against the Commanders who've got

750
00:39:20,760 --> 00:39:23,520
Speaker 1: nothing to play for. And as your friend, if it's

751
00:39:23,520 --> 00:39:25,960
Speaker 1: Carson Wentz, I can't let you do it. Cannot let

752
00:39:26,040 --> 00:39:27,920
Speaker 1: you do it if it's Carson Wentz. But if it's Heineke,

753
00:39:28,120 --> 00:39:31,600
Speaker 1: our guys back. No brainer. We take the Commanders here.

754
00:39:31,640 --> 00:39:35,120
Speaker 1: I mean, it's a an easy bet, but was when

755
00:39:35,920 --> 00:39:38,920
Speaker 1: we can't factor in the turnover rate like his turnover

756
00:39:39,080 --> 00:39:41,600
Speaker 1: is so devastating to that team where if he if

757
00:39:41,640 --> 00:39:43,560
Speaker 1: iinky just started this year for them, they are they

758
00:39:43,560 --> 00:39:45,319
Speaker 1: would be in the playoffs. I mean, there's no doubt

759
00:39:45,360 --> 00:39:49,799
Speaker 1: about that. So looking at this game, I'm surprise all

760
00:39:49,840 --> 00:39:51,839
Speaker 1: the money, all the bets are coming on the Cowboys.

761
00:39:52,160 --> 00:39:55,320
Speaker 1: So I want to take the Cowboys. If it's carsonal

762
00:39:55,400 --> 00:39:57,040
Speaker 1: to even bet with the public here, if it was

763
00:39:57,640 --> 00:39:59,719
Speaker 1: if it's Heineken, I know it's gonna be Hainicky. I

764
00:39:59,760 --> 00:40:01,560
Speaker 1: love the Commanders in this spot. Like you just said,

765
00:40:01,560 --> 00:40:05,520
Speaker 1: this is such a letdown spot for Dallas. Um, they're

766
00:40:05,560 --> 00:40:08,560
Speaker 1: already looking ahead to the playoffs and they're thinking in

767
00:40:08,600 --> 00:40:11,600
Speaker 1: the back of their mind. Not that I shouldn't say

768
00:40:11,600 --> 00:40:14,080
Speaker 1: they're thinking about it, but that's that's a big deal.

769
00:40:14,120 --> 00:40:17,480
Speaker 1: If their first game is going to Tampa and the

770
00:40:17,560 --> 00:40:20,840
Speaker 1: opening start of the playoffs where Brady and his career

771
00:40:20,880 --> 00:40:23,080
Speaker 1: has never lost two Dallas. I believe he's nine and

772
00:40:23,239 --> 00:40:26,239
Speaker 1: in his career against Dallas and he beat them. It

773
00:40:26,280 --> 00:40:29,680
Speaker 1: feels like legit a lifetime ago chat. But week one

774
00:40:30,160 --> 00:40:34,040
Speaker 1: Brady beat them. He beat this defense. So um, I

775
00:40:34,120 --> 00:40:36,359
Speaker 1: love to look ahead of that. There's just a lot

776
00:40:36,400 --> 00:40:38,560
Speaker 1: of things here that point to me taking Commanders. So

777
00:40:39,280 --> 00:40:41,359
Speaker 1: one I hadn't bet, just because I'm waiting to make

778
00:40:41,400 --> 00:40:44,000
Speaker 1: sure it's heineke i just I refused to have money

779
00:40:44,000 --> 00:40:47,120
Speaker 1: on wentz Um. I'll wait, I'll wait and see. You know,

780
00:40:47,160 --> 00:40:49,360
Speaker 1: if it drops down a point, it's something a difference

781
00:40:49,360 --> 00:40:50,759
Speaker 1: between five and a half of four and happen, It's

782
00:40:50,800 --> 00:40:52,799
Speaker 1: not that big of a deal. So I'm fine with

783
00:40:52,800 --> 00:40:56,840
Speaker 1: waiting to see who the quarterback is gonna be. Um Alright,

784
00:40:57,000 --> 00:40:59,880
Speaker 1: last game on the board. Our favorite team in the NFL.

785
00:41:00,160 --> 00:41:02,440
Speaker 1: The Detroit Lions are four and a half point underdogs

786
00:41:02,640 --> 00:41:08,200
Speaker 1: to the Green Bay Packers Sunday night, last game, last

787
00:41:08,320 --> 00:41:12,280
Speaker 1: regular season game with the season. Give me the Detroit

788
00:41:12,320 --> 00:41:17,600
Speaker 1: Lions for my lungs. I don't care what's going on

789
00:41:17,680 --> 00:41:20,160
Speaker 1: in that situation. You will know at that point if

790
00:41:20,160 --> 00:41:23,239
Speaker 1: they're playing for the playoffs, if they're playing to be spoilers.

791
00:41:24,120 --> 00:41:26,960
Speaker 1: Dan Campbell is going to have this team ready to

792
00:41:27,360 --> 00:41:31,120
Speaker 1: just screw with the Packers. Yeah, we don't have a

793
00:41:31,200 --> 00:41:33,040
Speaker 1: choice here, and we have a couple of games as

794
00:41:33,080 --> 00:41:34,560
Speaker 1: we we don't have a choice. This is another one

795
00:41:34,560 --> 00:41:37,279
Speaker 1: of those we have no choice here where you can

796
00:41:37,280 --> 00:41:38,920
Speaker 1: go back and listen to our final show before the

797
00:41:38,920 --> 00:41:41,560
Speaker 1: season started. We love the Lions. We both had him

798
00:41:41,600 --> 00:41:43,640
Speaker 1: making the playoffs, but I think we both had him

799
00:41:43,640 --> 00:41:48,920
Speaker 1: as our seventh seed. Um, it's you're so smart. I

800
00:41:48,960 --> 00:41:53,560
Speaker 1: completely forgot about that. Yeah, I just I look at

801
00:41:53,600 --> 00:41:58,960
Speaker 1: this team as you know. Sure they're different outdoors, right,

802
00:41:59,000 --> 00:42:00,960
Speaker 1: we saw them completely. They lay in the egg against

803
00:42:01,000 --> 00:42:03,080
Speaker 1: Carolina when they went out doors after those back to

804
00:42:03,120 --> 00:42:05,799
Speaker 1: back games against the Jets. I don't see an egg

805
00:42:05,840 --> 00:42:08,120
Speaker 1: being laid here. I just can see Dan Cavill letting

806
00:42:08,120 --> 00:42:11,440
Speaker 1: this team have an egg. Um, I can tell you

807
00:42:11,560 --> 00:42:13,560
Speaker 1: right now, a really smart group came in on Green

808
00:42:13,600 --> 00:42:16,920
Speaker 1: Bay and I think it's Uh, I did think. I

809
00:42:16,920 --> 00:42:19,080
Speaker 1: honestly think it's a hedge because I just don't know

810
00:42:19,120 --> 00:42:20,520
Speaker 1: why they would come in so heavy early in the

811
00:42:20,560 --> 00:42:23,880
Speaker 1: week on Green Bay. Um, but the books respected it.

812
00:42:23,920 --> 00:42:25,279
Speaker 1: They moved them from three and a half up to

813
00:42:25,360 --> 00:42:26,800
Speaker 1: four and four and a half for a lot of books.

814
00:42:26,840 --> 00:42:30,280
Speaker 1: So here, what's I'll hear the boys. You're saying, Chad,

815
00:42:30,320 --> 00:42:32,800
Speaker 1: But I already bet it. I'm in on Detroit, so

816
00:42:32,920 --> 00:42:34,920
Speaker 1: was here four and a half. I bet it. And

817
00:42:35,120 --> 00:42:37,000
Speaker 1: you know it could be me stepping in it, letting

818
00:42:37,000 --> 00:42:38,799
Speaker 1: the human side getting the way, and I gotta follow

819
00:42:38,880 --> 00:42:40,959
Speaker 1: my model that my model is saying this line should

820
00:42:40,960 --> 00:42:43,400
Speaker 1: be closer to six Green Bays on the team they

821
00:42:43,440 --> 00:42:45,560
Speaker 1: were earlier in the year. Their defense is better, their

822
00:42:45,600 --> 00:42:49,120
Speaker 1: offense is playing better. I get it. I just there's

823
00:42:49,160 --> 00:42:51,520
Speaker 1: something about this Detroit team and I still believe in them.

824
00:42:51,600 --> 00:42:54,520
Speaker 1: I believe they do make the playoffs. Um, I know

825
00:42:54,600 --> 00:42:57,560
Speaker 1: that could be thwarted here with the Seahawks. That's another

826
00:42:57,560 --> 00:42:59,360
Speaker 1: fun thing we can talk about Thursday. Maybe all the

827
00:42:59,360 --> 00:43:01,920
Speaker 1: part ladies you can do for the playoff scenarios. But

828
00:43:02,719 --> 00:43:05,640
Speaker 1: I love it. We love me and chat love the lines.

829
00:43:05,719 --> 00:43:07,440
Speaker 1: I knew as soon as this game came out and

830
00:43:07,480 --> 00:43:09,000
Speaker 1: do Chat and I we're gonna be on it. So

831
00:43:09,440 --> 00:43:12,520
Speaker 1: as you sit here on Tuesday, I can almost Gatti

832
00:43:12,600 --> 00:43:14,400
Speaker 1: will be one of our five unless I know that

833
00:43:14,440 --> 00:43:16,240
Speaker 1: pros are all over. That's why we have the vikings

834
00:43:16,280 --> 00:43:18,160
Speaker 1: in last week because like as much as I love

835
00:43:18,200 --> 00:43:20,960
Speaker 1: that game, I knew these really smart players that were

836
00:43:21,000 --> 00:43:23,560
Speaker 1: on it, so we didn't put it in. Maybe we'll

837
00:43:23,560 --> 00:43:25,719
Speaker 1: get lucky this week and be on the right side

838
00:43:25,719 --> 00:43:28,640
Speaker 1: of the lines. But it's it's crazy. These pros have

839
00:43:28,719 --> 00:43:30,720
Speaker 1: just been back in Green Bay these last five weeks

840
00:43:30,719 --> 00:43:33,080
Speaker 1: and it's been hitting for him. So um, they're they're

841
00:43:33,120 --> 00:43:35,160
Speaker 1: on them. I mean, we'll be on the with the public.

842
00:43:35,239 --> 00:43:38,520
Speaker 1: We'll be on the lines. For the love of Dan

843
00:43:38,600 --> 00:43:42,520
Speaker 1: Campbell and all that is holy. If we don't put

844
00:43:42,520 --> 00:43:46,279
Speaker 1: the lines in our final five, given this has been

845
00:43:46,320 --> 00:43:50,719
Speaker 1: a Lions podcast all season since March, it's been a

846
00:43:50,760 --> 00:43:53,719
Speaker 1: Lions podcast, it's only fitting that we put them in

847
00:43:53,719 --> 00:43:55,400
Speaker 1: the final five. When we're getting that much of a

848
00:43:55,400 --> 00:43:59,640
Speaker 1: good number. That's fair. It's it's hard to argue against that.

849
00:44:00,360 --> 00:44:10,200
Speaker 1: So right now, Uh, that's the last game our five Titans, Lions, Browns,

850
00:44:10,400 --> 00:44:23,200
Speaker 1: Patriots Rams. Um. Wow, that's ugly. That's ugly. We'll see,

851
00:44:24,080 --> 00:44:32,439
Speaker 1: We'll see. Um boy boy, oh boy. Okay, I really

852
00:44:32,440 --> 00:44:34,960
Speaker 1: do love all of those picks. Like last week I

853
00:44:35,000 --> 00:44:40,880
Speaker 1: hated our picks. This week I love them. Oh so,

854
00:44:41,040 --> 00:44:44,720
Speaker 1: last chance to go five and oh my friend, uh

855
00:44:44,840 --> 00:44:48,719
Speaker 1: foxhole is the Browns. Simon says, Titans plus six and

856
00:44:48,760 --> 00:44:52,680
Speaker 1: a half, exact decision, Broncos plus three and a half. Thursday,

857
00:44:52,680 --> 00:44:56,640
Speaker 1: we will do big balls and scoot Roulette to repeat

858
00:44:56,800 --> 00:44:59,520
Speaker 1: the teams that we are leaning towards right now. Late Tuesday,

859
00:44:59,600 --> 00:45:02,640
Speaker 1: Titans six and a half, uh, Lines four and a half,

860
00:45:02,680 --> 00:45:05,360
Speaker 1: Browns two and a half, Ram six and a half,

861
00:45:05,960 --> 00:45:08,560
Speaker 1: Pat seven and a half for the contest. I feel

862
00:45:08,600 --> 00:45:10,120
Speaker 1: like we need to throw the Broncos in there at

863
00:45:10,120 --> 00:45:12,239
Speaker 1: three and a half as a team. We might talk

864
00:45:12,280 --> 00:45:15,160
Speaker 1: about for the contest, yeah, but I don't think it'll

865
00:45:15,200 --> 00:45:17,240
Speaker 1: be at that number. I just think, like you just said,

866
00:45:17,400 --> 00:45:19,319
Speaker 1: I bet it, a bunch of pros gonna bet I'm

867
00:45:19,320 --> 00:45:21,200
Speaker 1: gonna bet it tonight again. I'm gonna shop from that

868
00:45:21,320 --> 00:45:23,560
Speaker 1: three and a half because just when we were talking

869
00:45:23,560 --> 00:45:26,960
Speaker 1: it out, it's what are the Chargers doing? Are They're

870
00:45:26,960 --> 00:45:28,640
Speaker 1: really gonna be playing Herbert? And like, the more I'm

871
00:45:28,640 --> 00:45:30,360
Speaker 1: thinking about it's just like I could easily see this

872
00:45:30,440 --> 00:45:33,640
Speaker 1: number being a pick. So um, Yeah, if you're hearing this, no,

873
00:45:33,760 --> 00:45:35,960
Speaker 1: I've already I'm grabbing all this three and a half,

874
00:45:36,040 --> 00:45:38,400
Speaker 1: So try to grab it while you can grabbing it

875
00:45:38,440 --> 00:45:40,680
Speaker 1: like it's a bushel, a bushel of three and a half.

876
00:45:41,239 --> 00:45:44,080
Speaker 1: I think that's everything. We appreciate people listening. We know

877
00:45:44,160 --> 00:45:46,160
Speaker 1: it's a weird week, it's a weird time to do

878
00:45:46,200 --> 00:45:49,840
Speaker 1: the podcast, and we will be back on Thursday for

879
00:45:50,000 --> 00:45:53,719
Speaker 1: Simon Hunter, for Matt Mitchell. I Am Chad Melman has

880
00:45:53,719 --> 00:45:57,200
Speaker 1: been the favorite podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. Download

881
00:45:57,239 --> 00:45:59,960
Speaker 1: us Apple Podcast, Spotify, wherever you get your podcast, rate reviews,

882
00:46:00,000 --> 00:46:04,160
Speaker 1: describe weaves five stars. Feedback is a gift until next time.

883
00:46:04,560 --> 00:46:10,239
Speaker 1: I Love you. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

884
00:46:10,280 --> 00:46:13,120
Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

885
00:46:13,360 --> 00:46:16,880
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