1 00:00:05,120 --> 00:00:09,200 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane, along 2 00:00:09,240 --> 00:00:13,200 Speaker 1: with Jonathan Ferrell and Lisa Brownwitz Jaily. We bring you 3 00:00:13,320 --> 00:00:18,600 Speaker 1: insight from the best and economics, finance, investment, and international relations. 4 00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:23,840 Speaker 1: Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcast, Suncloud, Bloomberg dot com, 5 00:00:23,920 --> 00:00:29,800 Speaker 1: and of course on the Bloomberg terminal. Joining us now 6 00:00:29,840 --> 00:00:33,000 Speaker 1: William Dudley. He is of Berkeley, he is of Goldman 7 00:00:33,040 --> 00:00:36,080 Speaker 1: sax and of course the former president of the New 8 00:00:36,159 --> 00:00:38,599 Speaker 1: York Federal Reserve. And we're thrilled he could join us, 9 00:00:38,640 --> 00:00:41,800 Speaker 1: and he writes presciently on labor this morning. Bill, I 10 00:00:42,159 --> 00:00:44,680 Speaker 1: don't want to go into the details of President biden 11 00:00:44,840 --> 00:00:48,760 Speaker 1: seventy two points on the power of corporations and the 12 00:00:48,800 --> 00:00:53,519 Speaker 1: consolidation of corporations and the weakness of labor. You do 13 00:00:53,600 --> 00:00:56,120 Speaker 1: address it this morning in your note, But I want 14 00:00:56,120 --> 00:00:59,000 Speaker 1: to go back to an important article you wrote six 15 00:00:59,080 --> 00:01:03,920 Speaker 1: years ago. What kind of jobs have been created? Bill Dudley? 16 00:01:04,120 --> 00:01:09,960 Speaker 1: How did we get here with declining labor share? It's 17 00:01:10,000 --> 00:01:14,160 Speaker 1: not really clear exactly why the labor sharer has declined 18 00:01:14,200 --> 00:01:18,480 Speaker 1: so much over the last uh a couple of decades. Presently, 19 00:01:18,520 --> 00:01:22,520 Speaker 1: it's because corporations have more power. Uh, you know, any 20 00:01:22,520 --> 00:01:26,520 Speaker 1: trust policy has been less aggressive, uh in dealing with 21 00:01:26,560 --> 00:01:29,240 Speaker 1: any competitive practices. And I think labor is power from 22 00:01:29,240 --> 00:01:33,800 Speaker 1: a unionization perspective is also lesson. But you know, it's 23 00:01:33,800 --> 00:01:35,919 Speaker 1: also a question of how tight is the labor markets 24 00:01:36,000 --> 00:01:39,319 Speaker 1: through much of the last economic expansion during an excess 25 00:01:39,319 --> 00:01:41,840 Speaker 1: supply of labor. We only got too close to full 26 00:01:41,840 --> 00:01:44,800 Speaker 1: employment at the very end of the last economic expansion, 27 00:01:44,840 --> 00:01:47,160 Speaker 1: then the pandemic it. So I think the key is 28 00:01:47,160 --> 00:01:49,360 Speaker 1: going to be can the FED drive the economy to 29 00:01:49,400 --> 00:01:52,000 Speaker 1: full employment? And if the economy is at full employment, 30 00:01:52,000 --> 00:01:53,680 Speaker 1: then I would expect labor to do better and pick 31 00:01:53,760 --> 00:01:58,280 Speaker 1: up a bigger share of income. The primal scream of 32 00:01:58,320 --> 00:02:01,720 Speaker 1: this document and the politic little energy that supports it 33 00:02:01,920 --> 00:02:05,680 Speaker 1: so that supports President Biden, seems to be about in 34 00:02:06,080 --> 00:02:11,800 Speaker 1: a blanket of technology over this generation. Do we underestimate 35 00:02:11,880 --> 00:02:17,560 Speaker 1: the technological effects on our labor economy, on our American economy. 36 00:02:19,040 --> 00:02:21,680 Speaker 1: I think there's no question that the digitalization of the 37 00:02:21,760 --> 00:02:25,079 Speaker 1: US economy has had pretty powerful effects on the return 38 00:02:25,120 --> 00:02:28,680 Speaker 1: on capital and in the return on labor. Uh. You know, 39 00:02:28,680 --> 00:02:30,880 Speaker 1: I think the ability that people to search now through 40 00:02:30,919 --> 00:02:33,960 Speaker 1: the labor market and find people to employ is vastly 41 00:02:33,960 --> 00:02:36,119 Speaker 1: different than it was. You know when you people used 42 00:02:36,120 --> 00:02:40,119 Speaker 1: to help wanted advertising to attract the workers to employ them. 43 00:02:40,440 --> 00:02:43,320 Speaker 1: Build us a belief that maybe labor has started to 44 00:02:43,360 --> 00:02:45,399 Speaker 1: get a little bit more power as we work through 45 00:02:45,440 --> 00:02:48,679 Speaker 1: this reopening. You've written today in your column, is the 46 00:02:48,760 --> 00:02:51,000 Speaker 1: labor market too loose or is it tight? Is it 47 00:02:51,080 --> 00:02:54,120 Speaker 1: loose or tight? And but your answer is both. Can 48 00:02:54,160 --> 00:02:56,360 Speaker 1: you bolt me through the thinking bill and your license pace. 49 00:02:57,280 --> 00:02:59,520 Speaker 1: So it's it's loose in the sense if you look 50 00:02:59,560 --> 00:03:01,160 Speaker 1: at the point of rate, the one point of rates 51 00:03:01,160 --> 00:03:03,400 Speaker 1: still elevated to compared to where we were in February 52 00:03:03,440 --> 00:03:05,959 Speaker 1: two thousand twenty, when the unemploy rate was three and 53 00:03:06,000 --> 00:03:08,079 Speaker 1: a half percent. Right now it's five point nine percent. 54 00:03:08,600 --> 00:03:10,200 Speaker 1: It's a loose when you look at the number of 55 00:03:10,200 --> 00:03:12,760 Speaker 1: people who are actually employed. Were seven million jobs short 56 00:03:12,760 --> 00:03:15,560 Speaker 1: of where we were in February. If you look at 57 00:03:15,600 --> 00:03:17,520 Speaker 1: it in terms of how many how many job openings 58 00:03:17,560 --> 00:03:19,840 Speaker 1: there are a number of job openings is an all 59 00:03:19,960 --> 00:03:22,959 Speaker 1: time record. We're all we have nine million time point 60 00:03:23,000 --> 00:03:26,040 Speaker 1: two million of open jobs. Businesses have a lot of jobs. 61 00:03:26,080 --> 00:03:28,639 Speaker 1: To feel they can't find workers, you actually see here 62 00:03:28,720 --> 00:03:31,800 Speaker 1: here about that anecdotically in the FED Reserves Bagebook report 63 00:03:31,800 --> 00:03:35,400 Speaker 1: where they talk about how businesses literally can't find workers 64 00:03:35,520 --> 00:03:39,000 Speaker 1: to hire to do they're working and some businesses actually 65 00:03:39,000 --> 00:03:41,360 Speaker 1: are cutting back their hours of operation because they can't 66 00:03:41,360 --> 00:03:45,280 Speaker 1: find enough workers to keep their output up. So, Bill, 67 00:03:45,320 --> 00:03:47,880 Speaker 1: when we talk about though, the power of workers here, 68 00:03:47,880 --> 00:03:51,000 Speaker 1: when you go back decades prior, there was an argument 69 00:03:51,000 --> 00:03:53,320 Speaker 1: to be made to here that it was a mobility 70 00:03:53,360 --> 00:03:55,400 Speaker 1: of workers that also gave them a lot of power, 71 00:03:55,680 --> 00:03:59,480 Speaker 1: and that with the consolidation of industries, with the decline 72 00:03:59,480 --> 00:04:02,600 Speaker 1: of labor unions, UH, that sort of leverage is just 73 00:04:02,760 --> 00:04:04,800 Speaker 1: not there the way it used to be. Is it 74 00:04:04,840 --> 00:04:07,560 Speaker 1: possible to bring that back? Is it possible for that 75 00:04:07,640 --> 00:04:12,080 Speaker 1: to be done at the behest of government policy? I 76 00:04:12,120 --> 00:04:15,680 Speaker 1: think it'll be difficult because mobility has declined. Willingness of 77 00:04:15,680 --> 00:04:18,240 Speaker 1: people to move from one, you know, geographic location in 78 00:04:18,240 --> 00:04:21,080 Speaker 1: the US to another is much lower today than it 79 00:04:21,200 --> 00:04:23,800 Speaker 1: was twenty thirty years ago. And part of that's the 80 00:04:23,839 --> 00:04:26,279 Speaker 1: aging of the population. Is people you know, are are older, 81 00:04:26,279 --> 00:04:30,080 Speaker 1: they're they're more attached to where they've lived historically. So 82 00:04:30,160 --> 00:04:31,840 Speaker 1: I think I think it's really about the FED. It's 83 00:04:31,839 --> 00:04:33,960 Speaker 1: really about the FED getting the economy to full employment. 84 00:04:33,960 --> 00:04:36,200 Speaker 1: Is the FED can get the economy full employment, make 85 00:04:36,240 --> 00:04:39,040 Speaker 1: the labor market truly tight, then workers will have to 86 00:04:39,440 --> 00:04:41,440 Speaker 1: Businesses will have to pay up for workers, and workers 87 00:04:41,480 --> 00:04:44,120 Speaker 1: will get up bigger share of the pie. But let's 88 00:04:44,120 --> 00:04:46,440 Speaker 1: talk about the FED just briefly. You've talked a lot 89 00:04:46,440 --> 00:04:49,039 Speaker 1: about the risk the balance of risks around the Federal 90 00:04:49,080 --> 00:04:52,000 Speaker 1: Reserve that once they do lift off, that trajectory won't 91 00:04:52,000 --> 00:04:54,400 Speaker 1: be a shallow as the trajectory we saw in the 92 00:04:54,400 --> 00:04:56,760 Speaker 1: previous Psycho I said that you were a pot of 93 00:04:56,880 --> 00:05:00,000 Speaker 1: Do you still feel that way, yeah, because they basically 94 00:05:00,000 --> 00:05:02,000 Speaker 1: he said that we're not gonna even begin to raise 95 00:05:02,040 --> 00:05:04,920 Speaker 1: short term race until three conditions are met. The economy 96 00:05:05,000 --> 00:05:06,880 Speaker 1: has to be at their view of full employment, we 97 00:05:06,920 --> 00:05:09,159 Speaker 1: have to they hit two percent inflation, and they have 98 00:05:09,200 --> 00:05:11,280 Speaker 1: to be confidence that inflation is can go above to 99 00:05:11,400 --> 00:05:14,479 Speaker 1: percent in the future. That's very very late to actually 100 00:05:14,520 --> 00:05:17,120 Speaker 1: begin the tightening process in terms of lifting off in 101 00:05:17,200 --> 00:05:19,800 Speaker 1: terms of short term interest rates. Before they used to 102 00:05:19,800 --> 00:05:22,760 Speaker 1: try to hit you know, they lifted off early with 103 00:05:22,800 --> 00:05:25,880 Speaker 1: the idea of hitting two percent inflation, full employment, and 104 00:05:25,920 --> 00:05:27,920 Speaker 1: a neutral federal fund rate all at the same time. 105 00:05:27,960 --> 00:05:31,080 Speaker 1: We're not gonna do that this time. Important final point 106 00:05:31,120 --> 00:05:33,279 Speaker 1: and Bill get to hear from you as always. That 107 00:05:33,360 --> 00:05:35,440 Speaker 1: paces out on the Bloomberg terminal this morning and on 108 00:05:35,440 --> 00:05:37,920 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot com. Is the labor market loose or tight? 109 00:05:38,440 --> 00:05:41,480 Speaker 1: The answer it's both by Bill Dudly, the former Federal's 110 00:05:41,480 --> 00:05:47,720 Speaker 1: serve Bank of New York president self. David Riley of 111 00:05:47,760 --> 00:05:50,880 Speaker 1: Blue Bay Asset Management agrees. He says Grin and Barrett, 112 00:05:50,960 --> 00:05:54,360 Speaker 1: it is a growth economy. David, what does the slowdown 113 00:05:54,520 --> 00:05:59,400 Speaker 1: gloom crew get wrong? Well, I think they get wrong 114 00:05:59,600 --> 00:06:03,200 Speaker 1: the extend off momentum that we have in the US, 115 00:06:03,279 --> 00:06:06,360 Speaker 1: and I think also the global economy right now. And 116 00:06:06,560 --> 00:06:11,279 Speaker 1: you know, we still do have continuing substantial fiscal support, 117 00:06:11,360 --> 00:06:13,479 Speaker 1: and I think that we're going to get more going 118 00:06:13,520 --> 00:06:16,039 Speaker 1: forward as well coming out of Washington, and you know, 119 00:06:16,080 --> 00:06:18,240 Speaker 1: we're getting things like the recovery funds will start to 120 00:06:18,240 --> 00:06:20,520 Speaker 1: be dispersed towards the end of this year and into 121 00:06:21,080 --> 00:06:25,400 Speaker 1: two within Europe, and of course with the vaccine rollout 122 00:06:25,880 --> 00:06:30,240 Speaker 1: um as as as well supporting reopening. So I'm pretty 123 00:06:30,360 --> 00:06:32,919 Speaker 1: confident I've got a high conviction, even though the market 124 00:06:32,960 --> 00:06:35,320 Speaker 1: is kind of challenging that conviction. In terms of how 125 00:06:35,320 --> 00:06:38,000 Speaker 1: the bomb market is performing that you know, we do 126 00:06:38,120 --> 00:06:40,679 Speaker 1: have strong growth for this year, we'll have above trend 127 00:06:40,880 --> 00:06:43,320 Speaker 1: for growth for next year. I think where the market 128 00:06:43,560 --> 00:06:47,320 Speaker 1: can reasonably um or you know, those country views can 129 00:06:47,360 --> 00:06:49,600 Speaker 1: can reasonably challenge to sort of yeah, but once we 130 00:06:49,680 --> 00:06:52,520 Speaker 1: get past that, then we're going back into a sort 131 00:06:52,520 --> 00:06:56,839 Speaker 1: of Steckler stagnation of you know, excess savings, low growth, 132 00:06:56,880 --> 00:06:58,880 Speaker 1: low inflation, and the FED will never be able to 133 00:06:58,880 --> 00:07:02,440 Speaker 1: get UH rates higher. It's going to end up getting 134 00:07:02,480 --> 00:07:04,880 Speaker 1: trapped in a way that I think the ECB has done. 135 00:07:05,240 --> 00:07:08,680 Speaker 1: I'm not as pessimistic as as as that so um 136 00:07:08,720 --> 00:07:11,760 Speaker 1: and I think right now the market is underprising um 137 00:07:12,280 --> 00:07:15,560 Speaker 1: the Fed. So you know, I still think that bond 138 00:07:15,600 --> 00:07:18,280 Speaker 1: shields are going to end meaningfully higher by the end 139 00:07:18,320 --> 00:07:20,680 Speaker 1: of this year. But you know, yeah, I'm taking some 140 00:07:20,720 --> 00:07:24,200 Speaker 1: pain and I'm having to gwyn and bear that right now. David, 141 00:07:24,200 --> 00:07:26,000 Speaker 1: earlier on we caught it with Beamo, talked about the 142 00:07:26,040 --> 00:07:28,360 Speaker 1: reaction function of this market, how a market response to 143 00:07:28,400 --> 00:07:30,880 Speaker 1: incoming economic data. It made the point it's not what 144 00:07:30,920 --> 00:07:33,320 Speaker 1: you expect. Might be a little bit more counterintuitive in 145 00:07:33,320 --> 00:07:36,480 Speaker 1: the future, the upside surprises on CPI will actually lead 146 00:07:36,520 --> 00:07:39,120 Speaker 1: to lower yields of the long when tens thirties, and 147 00:07:39,160 --> 00:07:43,120 Speaker 1: you're pushing back against that. Well, I think in the 148 00:07:43,160 --> 00:07:48,280 Speaker 1: new term that is because the market has interpreted the 149 00:07:48,400 --> 00:07:50,680 Speaker 1: last meeting of the FED as as this you know, 150 00:07:50,760 --> 00:07:54,679 Speaker 1: hawkish pivot and basically decided that the FED is blinked 151 00:07:54,720 --> 00:07:58,160 Speaker 1: in terms of his average inflation targeting of regime. So 152 00:07:58,200 --> 00:08:00,760 Speaker 1: if you get higher inflation in the near term, that 153 00:08:00,880 --> 00:08:03,480 Speaker 1: is makes the FED more likely to to to to 154 00:08:03,600 --> 00:08:06,000 Speaker 1: hire Gregs. But as I was saying before, people are 155 00:08:06,040 --> 00:08:09,800 Speaker 1: sort of now debating this kind of secklist stagnation over 156 00:08:09,840 --> 00:08:12,400 Speaker 1: the medium term, but I think they're wrong on that both. 157 00:08:12,560 --> 00:08:15,080 Speaker 1: I think that, you know, as the data comes through, 158 00:08:15,120 --> 00:08:18,320 Speaker 1: we will see higher and stickier um inflation as well 159 00:08:18,360 --> 00:08:21,320 Speaker 1: as stronger growth. But also actually that I don't think 160 00:08:21,360 --> 00:08:25,480 Speaker 1: the FED has become meaningfully more hawkish, and so at 161 00:08:25,520 --> 00:08:29,800 Speaker 1: some point I do actually expect the curve to steep 162 00:08:29,840 --> 00:08:31,760 Speaker 1: and back again and to get back onto that more 163 00:08:31,840 --> 00:08:35,160 Speaker 1: kind of reflationary um trade. Tom and I hate that 164 00:08:35,200 --> 00:08:37,400 Speaker 1: when questions when will that happen? But David, I do 165 00:08:37,440 --> 00:08:40,440 Speaker 1: think it's important when you think we'll have sufficient information 166 00:08:40,480 --> 00:08:43,120 Speaker 1: to challenge the current consensus when do you think that 167 00:08:43,160 --> 00:08:47,240 Speaker 1: will happen. I think we're going to be looking at 168 00:08:47,280 --> 00:08:51,160 Speaker 1: sort of September October time. I mean, you know, what's 169 00:08:51,200 --> 00:08:54,800 Speaker 1: important is, in addition to the inflation numbers, is also, 170 00:08:54,880 --> 00:08:58,040 Speaker 1: of course what's happening in terms of, um, the labor market. 171 00:08:58,040 --> 00:09:00,920 Speaker 1: And although we had a pretty strong pay rolls headline number, 172 00:09:01,000 --> 00:09:04,280 Speaker 1: the actual unemployment rate UM, you know, somewhat surprisingly ticked up. 173 00:09:04,520 --> 00:09:06,679 Speaker 1: Now our own forecast suggests that unemployment is going to 174 00:09:06,760 --> 00:09:09,480 Speaker 1: be approaching four percent by the end of this year. 175 00:09:10,080 --> 00:09:12,200 Speaker 1: Uh So, I think, you know, when we get to 176 00:09:12,320 --> 00:09:17,200 Speaker 1: sort of October, we've had a number of payroll reports, 177 00:09:17,240 --> 00:09:21,800 Speaker 1: including you know, the September payrolls, which will start to 178 00:09:21,880 --> 00:09:24,960 Speaker 1: reflect some of the runoff in terms of the extent 179 00:09:25,040 --> 00:09:28,679 Speaker 1: of unemployment insurance. UM. You know, kids returning to school, 180 00:09:29,040 --> 00:09:31,959 Speaker 1: you know, Mom's getting more access to the labor market 181 00:09:31,960 --> 00:09:33,920 Speaker 1: as well, so some of those sort of labor supply 182 00:09:34,040 --> 00:09:36,880 Speaker 1: constraints may start to dissiplate as well. So, David, so 183 00:09:37,120 --> 00:09:39,360 Speaker 1: as we sort of try to assess this growth story, 184 00:09:39,480 --> 00:09:42,079 Speaker 1: this growth scare, whatever we want to sort of call 185 00:09:42,160 --> 00:09:44,960 Speaker 1: it here, can you maybe walk us through the diversions 186 00:09:45,000 --> 00:09:47,960 Speaker 1: that we've seen lately between what's been going on with 187 00:09:48,000 --> 00:09:50,160 Speaker 1: regards to sovereign debt and what's been going on with 188 00:09:50,200 --> 00:09:53,640 Speaker 1: regards of corporate credit, because they seem to now be 189 00:09:53,840 --> 00:09:57,400 Speaker 1: uncoppling maybe just a little bit. Yeah, I think it's 190 00:09:57,400 --> 00:10:00,880 Speaker 1: a good point that. I mean, one aspect of you know, 191 00:10:00,920 --> 00:10:03,960 Speaker 1: what we've been seeing of late is that, well, you know, 192 00:10:04,000 --> 00:10:06,720 Speaker 1: we've seen the volatility in the raids market. We've seen 193 00:10:06,760 --> 00:10:11,080 Speaker 1: the equity markets starting to respond to that, and thinking, 194 00:10:11,360 --> 00:10:14,000 Speaker 1: you know, the ball market is telling us that growth 195 00:10:14,080 --> 00:10:17,440 Speaker 1: is slowing and potentially meaningful credit is actually held up 196 00:10:17,440 --> 00:10:20,880 Speaker 1: pretty well now. In part credit doesn't need sort of 197 00:10:20,960 --> 00:10:25,640 Speaker 1: really strong growth and corporate earnings growth in order to 198 00:10:25,679 --> 00:10:28,480 Speaker 1: be still a relatively attractive from a from a from 199 00:10:28,480 --> 00:10:32,000 Speaker 1: a carry perspective. Um. But I do think we say 200 00:10:32,040 --> 00:10:33,960 Speaker 1: the credit market right now it's sort of saying, well, 201 00:10:34,320 --> 00:10:38,040 Speaker 1: you know, yeah, okay, maybe growth is you may maybe moderating, 202 00:10:38,120 --> 00:10:40,360 Speaker 1: but that's you know, it's it's not waiving any kind 203 00:10:40,400 --> 00:10:43,400 Speaker 1: of red or even amber flags. In my opinion, David, 204 00:10:43,440 --> 00:10:45,760 Speaker 1: my observation is you're not focused. I mean, that's all 205 00:10:45,800 --> 00:10:48,320 Speaker 1: I can see now, John. This is just simple. Riley 206 00:10:48,400 --> 00:10:50,959 Speaker 1: is focused and one thing and that's what England is 207 00:10:51,000 --> 00:10:53,480 Speaker 1: going to do against Italy. Let's get to it. How 208 00:10:53,520 --> 00:10:56,360 Speaker 1: do they do this? John Pharaoh and David Riley. Does 209 00:10:56,440 --> 00:10:59,360 Speaker 1: England have to come out strong? It's the one question. 210 00:11:00,120 --> 00:11:02,760 Speaker 1: Now when does England do it? Do they come out 211 00:11:02,800 --> 00:11:05,560 Speaker 1: strong in the first half, John, or do they have 212 00:11:05,600 --> 00:11:08,640 Speaker 1: to be patient and come out strong in the second. 213 00:11:08,720 --> 00:11:10,120 Speaker 1: I think a lot of it comes down to one 214 00:11:10,120 --> 00:11:12,520 Speaker 1: player for England. David. I'm sure you agree. Raheem Sterling 215 00:11:12,559 --> 00:11:15,600 Speaker 1: has just been a standout performer, player of the tournament 216 00:11:15,679 --> 00:11:17,360 Speaker 1: for England. If he turns out there could be a 217 00:11:17,400 --> 00:11:21,680 Speaker 1: bit of trouble for Italy. It's just been absolutely fantastic. Yeah, 218 00:11:21,720 --> 00:11:25,200 Speaker 1: I actually think I actually think it's the overall the 219 00:11:25,320 --> 00:11:28,960 Speaker 1: actual better team. But England do have home advantage, so 220 00:11:29,640 --> 00:11:31,960 Speaker 1: I am hopeful that that will be enough to kind 221 00:11:31,960 --> 00:11:34,480 Speaker 1: of get us over the line. But yeah, I mean 222 00:11:34,640 --> 00:11:40,120 Speaker 1: Racine Sterling running uh the Italian center backs I think 223 00:11:40,280 --> 00:11:43,040 Speaker 1: could cause them some problems, particularly if they touch him. 224 00:11:43,080 --> 00:11:45,520 Speaker 1: And of just which Italy turns up the one against Bounty, 225 00:11:45,679 --> 00:11:49,160 Speaker 1: the one against Austria. I'm more interested in the thirty 226 00:11:49,200 --> 00:11:54,200 Speaker 1: three unbeaten thirty plus games the City of London tom 227 00:11:54,280 --> 00:11:56,760 Speaker 1: Monday morning. How does that work? David? What have you 228 00:11:56,800 --> 00:11:58,960 Speaker 1: said to your team? Are you turning around to them 229 00:11:58,960 --> 00:12:01,280 Speaker 1: and saying, look, I don't speech to be in early 230 00:12:01,320 --> 00:12:03,560 Speaker 1: on Monday morning after the big game. What are the 231 00:12:03,600 --> 00:12:08,600 Speaker 1: expectations from the staff in the city. Uh, well, I've 232 00:12:08,640 --> 00:12:11,040 Speaker 1: told them I won't don't expect me to be You 233 00:12:11,200 --> 00:12:14,800 Speaker 1: told them that. What about them, David, They've got to 234 00:12:14,840 --> 00:12:20,079 Speaker 1: be banging there. I don't forget. I'm a lot older, 235 00:12:20,160 --> 00:12:23,679 Speaker 1: so I've got to sleep great time. I do need 236 00:12:23,720 --> 00:12:26,839 Speaker 1: my I don't need my sleep, so um yeah, I 237 00:12:26,880 --> 00:12:31,280 Speaker 1: mean hopefully, um, you know we went there'll be a 238 00:12:31,320 --> 00:12:35,280 Speaker 1: little bit of positivity and euphoria, maybe a sort of 239 00:12:35,360 --> 00:12:38,200 Speaker 1: cheeky long sterling which should we should send the camera 240 00:12:38,640 --> 00:12:41,720 Speaker 1: out to bank station just outside of bank Station tom 241 00:12:42,280 --> 00:12:46,280 Speaker 1: on Monday morning. I'm tanning you tumballweeds all the way 242 00:12:46,280 --> 00:12:50,880 Speaker 1: through to lunchtime. It's called bunk, right, bunk. Yeah. What 243 00:12:51,000 --> 00:12:53,360 Speaker 1: I noticed here is David Riley just you know, he 244 00:12:53,480 --> 00:12:55,600 Speaker 1: was not focused until we brought this up, John, and 245 00:12:55,640 --> 00:12:59,280 Speaker 1: he's just full on right now. I would agree David 246 00:12:59,440 --> 00:13:04,719 Speaker 1: in his own David Riley, thank you, Chief Investment Strategist 247 00:13:05,080 --> 00:13:12,520 Speaker 1: t K Monday morning, it's going to be dead. David 248 00:13:12,559 --> 00:13:17,840 Speaker 1: blanche Flower a few decades ago definitely restructured our labor 249 00:13:17,920 --> 00:13:21,040 Speaker 1: thinking with his book The Wage Curve, and what we 250 00:13:21,200 --> 00:13:24,880 Speaker 1: all know is our wage curve as a society has 251 00:13:24,920 --> 00:13:28,440 Speaker 1: been shattered in the recent decades. He is at Dartmouth College. 252 00:13:28,559 --> 00:13:32,720 Speaker 1: David David blanche Flower joins us UH this morning. Danny, 253 00:13:32,760 --> 00:13:35,120 Speaker 1: I look at where we are in the first name 254 00:13:35,480 --> 00:13:37,760 Speaker 1: that I came up with, and what I want to 255 00:13:37,800 --> 00:13:41,679 Speaker 1: talk about more than anything is the primal scream nature 256 00:13:42,280 --> 00:13:47,199 Speaker 1: of the seventy two point Executives Order. Who is screaming 257 00:13:47,720 --> 00:13:54,199 Speaker 1: about consolidation in America? Well, I guess the way you 258 00:13:54,240 --> 00:13:58,000 Speaker 1: would think of it now is that workers have been hurting, um. 259 00:13:58,120 --> 00:14:01,160 Speaker 1: Non workers have been hurting. They've been hit a serious 260 00:14:01,280 --> 00:14:05,760 Speaker 1: pandemic um and it's had a big impact on the world. 261 00:14:05,880 --> 00:14:10,640 Speaker 1: But this sits on the end of many decades of 262 00:14:10,840 --> 00:14:14,720 Speaker 1: poor wage growth, and the balance of power between workers 263 00:14:14,800 --> 00:14:18,720 Speaker 1: and firms has shifted quite considerably compared to where it was. 264 00:14:19,080 --> 00:14:21,000 Speaker 1: So this is a sort of I read it, and 265 00:14:21,040 --> 00:14:23,120 Speaker 1: I've read it very quickly in the last twenty minutes. 266 00:14:23,440 --> 00:14:26,640 Speaker 1: This is the kind of primal scream to try and 267 00:14:26,680 --> 00:14:31,200 Speaker 1: redress the balance of power between workers and firms. Now, 268 00:14:31,240 --> 00:14:33,640 Speaker 1: I think the country we just had its important market 269 00:14:33,680 --> 00:14:36,720 Speaker 1: responses very little because the question is does it have 270 00:14:36,760 --> 00:14:41,440 Speaker 1: any teeth? Is it merely wishful thinking? So when I 271 00:14:41,480 --> 00:14:44,560 Speaker 1: read it that this is trying to think about UM 272 00:14:44,600 --> 00:14:47,640 Speaker 1: some of the stories about big firms, about Google, about 273 00:14:47,680 --> 00:14:50,520 Speaker 1: about on Facebook and song, but this is this is 274 00:14:50,560 --> 00:14:53,680 Speaker 1: a scream and it start to think about that balance 275 00:14:53,760 --> 00:14:56,480 Speaker 1: being being being changed. Whether it can do that, it 276 00:14:56,560 --> 00:14:59,080 Speaker 1: is unclear. What's so important to me, Professor, is the 277 00:14:59,160 --> 00:15:02,680 Speaker 1: idea from you or liberals like Paul Krugman, or conservatives 278 00:15:02,840 --> 00:15:06,200 Speaker 1: as well the late at lazer out at Stanford is 279 00:15:06,240 --> 00:15:10,760 Speaker 1: the overwhelming theme of that document is technology is here, 280 00:15:11,160 --> 00:15:15,160 Speaker 1: and we are using and adapting to technology every every day. 281 00:15:15,280 --> 00:15:19,760 Speaker 1: Within the economics of monopsony, can we take the deadweight 282 00:15:19,920 --> 00:15:23,880 Speaker 1: loss of technology and can basically can we put the 283 00:15:23,920 --> 00:15:28,520 Speaker 1: genie back in the bottle? Well, we'll probably not. UM. 284 00:15:28,640 --> 00:15:31,640 Speaker 1: I mean, the teeth is the big story, but but 285 00:15:31,720 --> 00:15:34,160 Speaker 1: I do think that in some sense that I'd like 286 00:15:34,240 --> 00:15:37,440 Speaker 1: to think of it this way. UM firms have the 287 00:15:37,480 --> 00:15:42,840 Speaker 1: ability to pay higher wages, they've seen no real need 288 00:15:42,960 --> 00:15:46,920 Speaker 1: to do that, and they haven't shared. They haven't shared 289 00:15:47,000 --> 00:15:50,520 Speaker 1: those wages and those in a sense, the profits that 290 00:15:50,560 --> 00:15:52,720 Speaker 1: they've made. So this is a screen to try and 291 00:15:52,760 --> 00:15:55,320 Speaker 1: do something about that. I mean, look at real wages. 292 00:15:55,360 --> 00:15:58,160 Speaker 1: I mean, I've written about it for thirty years. Still, 293 00:15:58,280 --> 00:16:01,480 Speaker 1: even with the growth that we've seen, real wages today 294 00:16:01,520 --> 00:16:04,440 Speaker 1: are still below what they were in the nineties seventies. 295 00:16:04,760 --> 00:16:08,120 Speaker 1: So this is about trying to think about that coming 296 00:16:08,120 --> 00:16:10,600 Speaker 1: out of the White House, coming out of cc rouse, 297 00:16:10,640 --> 00:16:13,600 Speaker 1: who cares about these kinds of questions. The issue is 298 00:16:13,680 --> 00:16:16,320 Speaker 1: can you can you change this part? There appeared to 299 00:16:16,320 --> 00:16:19,280 Speaker 1: be sensible things there in terms of let's think about 300 00:16:19,280 --> 00:16:22,480 Speaker 1: this occupation or licensing, let's think about ways in which 301 00:16:22,520 --> 00:16:25,600 Speaker 1: we can get prices down. But that in a in 302 00:16:25,640 --> 00:16:30,160 Speaker 1: a sense an o'domini can just continues. And in a 303 00:16:30,240 --> 00:16:32,880 Speaker 1: sense I read it is we would like for these 304 00:16:32,880 --> 00:16:35,320 Speaker 1: things to happen. We would like to try and sort 305 00:16:35,320 --> 00:16:38,160 Speaker 1: of stop the world from rolling. But there's little or 306 00:16:38,200 --> 00:16:39,400 Speaker 1: nothing in it. I mean, there is going to be 307 00:16:39,440 --> 00:16:43,440 Speaker 1: a White House competition, council um and and but that's true. 308 00:16:43,480 --> 00:16:45,560 Speaker 1: But let's talk about that word and forgive me for 309 00:16:45,720 --> 00:16:48,360 Speaker 1: up because I think that word is so important. The 310 00:16:48,400 --> 00:16:51,400 Speaker 1: knee jerk reaction from conservatives this morning, I think would 311 00:16:51,440 --> 00:16:53,560 Speaker 1: be to say I'm from the government and I'm here 312 00:16:53,600 --> 00:16:56,240 Speaker 1: to help. This is a problem. The government wants to 313 00:16:56,240 --> 00:16:58,320 Speaker 1: set prices all those kind of things. But I hear 314 00:16:58,360 --> 00:17:01,920 Speaker 1: competition and the lack of air off and Tom I 315 00:17:01,960 --> 00:17:04,240 Speaker 1: think rightly mentioned the late great and and Cruder and 316 00:17:04,320 --> 00:17:06,720 Speaker 1: some of the work he did on non compete clauses 317 00:17:07,160 --> 00:17:09,520 Speaker 1: and the labor market. And this is about trying to 318 00:17:09,600 --> 00:17:13,680 Speaker 1: reintroduce competition where there hasn't been enough competition. Can you 319 00:17:13,720 --> 00:17:16,720 Speaker 1: just sit there, that's your world, the labor something like 320 00:17:16,840 --> 00:17:20,119 Speaker 1: non competes and the problem then that is caused. Well, 321 00:17:20,840 --> 00:17:25,040 Speaker 1: this is about the balance of power. When the balance 322 00:17:25,040 --> 00:17:29,399 Speaker 1: of power sits with firms. Firms can put put in 323 00:17:29,440 --> 00:17:33,399 Speaker 1: occupational licenses and they differ by a state um and 324 00:17:33,440 --> 00:17:35,560 Speaker 1: in the UK they can do these things called zero 325 00:17:35,640 --> 00:17:40,520 Speaker 1: our contracts. That's what happens when the bargaining power shifts 326 00:17:40,520 --> 00:17:44,760 Speaker 1: strongly towards towards firms. If you can somehow or other 327 00:17:44,840 --> 00:17:48,879 Speaker 1: redress that take the occupational licenses the way that increases 328 00:17:48,920 --> 00:17:52,560 Speaker 1: the powers of workers, that's what this document is about. 329 00:17:53,320 --> 00:17:56,040 Speaker 1: But it but the first thing you read it, John, 330 00:17:56,080 --> 00:17:58,480 Speaker 1: is it doesn't have any teeth it doesn't have. How 331 00:17:58,480 --> 00:18:01,160 Speaker 1: are we going to do this? Yeah, you can say, 332 00:18:01,280 --> 00:18:03,400 Speaker 1: you know, it will be good idea to lower drug prices. 333 00:18:03,520 --> 00:18:06,560 Speaker 1: It would be good idea to let people have have refunds. 334 00:18:06,920 --> 00:18:09,320 Speaker 1: And in some sense what we'll see and that's something 335 00:18:09,320 --> 00:18:13,000 Speaker 1: I'd argue about a lot workers ability to bargain these 336 00:18:13,040 --> 00:18:17,399 Speaker 1: things becomes greater as the economy moves towards full employment, 337 00:18:17,760 --> 00:18:20,640 Speaker 1: and so we're seeing these adjustments going on. And then 338 00:18:20,680 --> 00:18:23,280 Speaker 1: the last six or seven months we've see increasing power 339 00:18:23,359 --> 00:18:26,639 Speaker 1: of workers trying to get trying trying to deal with 340 00:18:26,680 --> 00:18:28,960 Speaker 1: the bottlenecks that we see. So I think this is 341 00:18:29,160 --> 00:18:32,880 Speaker 1: sort of an opening salvo. Al Kruger's work is really 342 00:18:32,920 --> 00:18:36,600 Speaker 1: important in that in that area, firms can impose rules 343 00:18:37,520 --> 00:18:40,960 Speaker 1: when when they're bargaining position is strong. We will see 344 00:18:41,000 --> 00:18:46,199 Speaker 1: what happens. But I just think, you know, the this 345 00:18:46,280 --> 00:18:48,200 Speaker 1: is an opening salvo, it seems to me. But the 346 00:18:49,600 --> 00:18:51,800 Speaker 1: professor when we talk about some of the market forces 347 00:18:51,840 --> 00:18:54,960 Speaker 1: that have sort of pushed a little bit more, given 348 00:18:55,000 --> 00:18:57,000 Speaker 1: the workers a little bit more bargaining power. Here the 349 00:18:57,080 --> 00:18:59,760 Speaker 1: idea here that the administration now wants to nudge that 350 00:19:00,160 --> 00:19:02,720 Speaker 1: further not necessarily a surprise but the idea when you 351 00:19:02,720 --> 00:19:04,960 Speaker 1: start talking about some of these right to work issues 352 00:19:05,000 --> 00:19:07,600 Speaker 1: and some of these licensing issues here, this is now 353 00:19:08,200 --> 00:19:10,359 Speaker 1: a major shift. If he's able to get it through 354 00:19:10,720 --> 00:19:12,520 Speaker 1: and able to sort of enforce these things, this would 355 00:19:12,560 --> 00:19:15,119 Speaker 1: be a major shift in how in the US economy, 356 00:19:15,160 --> 00:19:18,560 Speaker 1: in the US labor market. I think it would be. 357 00:19:18,600 --> 00:19:21,399 Speaker 1: And there are signs around the world that these that 358 00:19:21,520 --> 00:19:25,160 Speaker 1: this shift is underway. Um. Two examples in the UK 359 00:19:25,320 --> 00:19:29,320 Speaker 1: we've seen rising unionization rates and actually in the United 360 00:19:29,400 --> 00:19:32,280 Speaker 1: States and the last data that we have union rates, 361 00:19:32,680 --> 00:19:35,560 Speaker 1: union density rights, that's the proportion of workers union has 362 00:19:35,600 --> 00:19:38,679 Speaker 1: actually risen. Why is that. It's because actually in the 363 00:19:38,800 --> 00:19:43,480 Speaker 1: last years or so, non union jobs have actually declined. 364 00:19:43,920 --> 00:19:46,080 Speaker 1: So I think there is some evidence in the last 365 00:19:46,080 --> 00:19:49,959 Speaker 1: couple of years that there is a move away. I mean, 366 00:19:50,000 --> 00:19:52,960 Speaker 1: the right to work laws are our laws that can 367 00:19:53,000 --> 00:19:55,879 Speaker 1: be imposed when there's plenty of workers around. So I 368 00:19:55,880 --> 00:19:59,320 Speaker 1: think you're right, Um, the balance between workers and firm 369 00:19:59,400 --> 00:20:01,240 Speaker 1: seems to be changing a bit. I mean, this is 370 00:20:01,400 --> 00:20:04,679 Speaker 1: this is a really important and interesting document. It suggests 371 00:20:04,720 --> 00:20:06,520 Speaker 1: that you know, we're going to see a push on 372 00:20:06,520 --> 00:20:10,359 Speaker 1: the front of let's increase the power of workers. But 373 00:20:10,680 --> 00:20:13,920 Speaker 1: whether you can impose that is another thing. Problem is, Danny, 374 00:20:13,920 --> 00:20:16,880 Speaker 1: that's the left wing interpretation of this. And I mentioned 375 00:20:16,880 --> 00:20:20,080 Speaker 1: a little bit earlier the conservative criticism would be, we're 376 00:20:20,080 --> 00:20:23,360 Speaker 1: trying to we're trying to reduce the friction of corporations 377 00:20:23,640 --> 00:20:25,720 Speaker 1: at the same time, I don't want to introduce more 378 00:20:25,760 --> 00:20:28,399 Speaker 1: friction on the labor side with unions. And you know 379 00:20:28,440 --> 00:20:31,040 Speaker 1: that's a political point, of course. I know that's a 380 00:20:31,080 --> 00:20:34,880 Speaker 1: political point. Um that that that that that's true. I'm 381 00:20:34,880 --> 00:20:37,479 Speaker 1: just suggesting that there are there are trends that are 382 00:20:37,520 --> 00:20:40,760 Speaker 1: moving partly because that's what's happening out there in the world. 383 00:20:41,240 --> 00:20:43,480 Speaker 1: I mean seeing those things happening. But yeah, John, I 384 00:20:43,560 --> 00:20:45,520 Speaker 1: mean I don't think it's the it's the left wing view. 385 00:20:45,560 --> 00:20:48,199 Speaker 1: I think it's that the reality is, the reality is 386 00:20:48,200 --> 00:20:50,920 Speaker 1: where we are. How that's going to change will really 387 00:20:50,960 --> 00:20:53,679 Speaker 1: depend upon how tight the labor market is. And we 388 00:20:53,680 --> 00:20:56,200 Speaker 1: can both agree we need more competition. Danny, you and 389 00:20:56,240 --> 00:20:57,720 Speaker 1: I could talk forever. I'll give you a call later. 390 00:20:57,960 --> 00:20:59,800 Speaker 1: We'll carry this on and a little bit more. Danny 391 00:21:00,080 --> 00:21:07,800 Speaker 1: Flat of Doltma College Andrew Peckross resists of Johns Hopkins 392 00:21:08,040 --> 00:21:11,199 Speaker 1: were thoroughly could join us this morning. The mystery for 393 00:21:11,240 --> 00:21:15,560 Speaker 1: me is someone vaccinated. Professor, is the idea that if 394 00:21:15,600 --> 00:21:21,920 Speaker 1: I choose to be unvaccinated, how sick is sick when 395 00:21:21,920 --> 00:21:26,200 Speaker 1: I get the delta variant? What's the level of sick 396 00:21:26,440 --> 00:21:31,160 Speaker 1: we should expect. Well, the data is really rolling in 397 00:21:31,200 --> 00:21:36,600 Speaker 1: now that um, the delta variant is causing disease primarily 398 00:21:36,680 --> 00:21:41,840 Speaker 1: and unvaccinated populations, and the disease that it's showing seems 399 00:21:41,880 --> 00:21:44,119 Speaker 1: to be a bit more severe than the disease we 400 00:21:44,200 --> 00:21:47,399 Speaker 1: saw in similar age groups at the beginning of the pandemic. 401 00:21:48,119 --> 00:21:51,720 Speaker 1: So if you're unvaccinated, the risk from delta variant is 402 00:21:51,760 --> 00:21:54,119 Speaker 1: greater of infection, and there's also going to be a 403 00:21:54,160 --> 00:21:58,440 Speaker 1: slightly greater increase of severe disease from infection. So there's 404 00:21:58,480 --> 00:22:01,320 Speaker 1: nothing good about being vaccinated when you think about the 405 00:22:01,320 --> 00:22:03,720 Speaker 1: delta v area. Where are we on the vaccination process 406 00:22:03,840 --> 00:22:06,400 Speaker 1: right now? I follow the statistics. I saw something age 407 00:22:06,440 --> 00:22:09,920 Speaker 1: over twelve fully vaccinated fifty x per cent as well? 408 00:22:10,080 --> 00:22:14,960 Speaker 1: Are you pleased with the rate of vaccination? Every vaccination 409 00:22:15,080 --> 00:22:17,080 Speaker 1: is a good thing. I would love to see these 410 00:22:17,160 --> 00:22:19,719 Speaker 1: vaccination rates get much higher than they were than they 411 00:22:19,720 --> 00:22:22,840 Speaker 1: are right now. Um, we've reached a stage where many 412 00:22:22,840 --> 00:22:26,800 Speaker 1: of the people who are vaccinated. Now, obviously they're protected 413 00:22:26,800 --> 00:22:30,359 Speaker 1: from infection, they're protected from severe disease. We haven't reached 414 00:22:30,359 --> 00:22:34,320 Speaker 1: those levels that really give us a population based benefit 415 00:22:34,359 --> 00:22:37,479 Speaker 1: from vaccination. Yet. That's that herd immunity thing that you 416 00:22:37,480 --> 00:22:39,639 Speaker 1: hear about all the time. It doesn't mean that the 417 00:22:39,680 --> 00:22:43,960 Speaker 1: vaccine doesn't work against you individually with vaccination helps protect you, 418 00:22:44,080 --> 00:22:47,719 Speaker 1: but at some level we get that added benefit that 419 00:22:47,760 --> 00:22:50,639 Speaker 1: the virus is just so difficult to to circulate in 420 00:22:50,680 --> 00:22:55,040 Speaker 1: the population because of vaccination that even the unvaccinated um 421 00:22:55,240 --> 00:22:57,920 Speaker 1: get a benefit from that. We're not close to that level, 422 00:22:57,960 --> 00:23:01,119 Speaker 1: and as a research scientist, that's what I really like 423 00:23:01,240 --> 00:23:05,680 Speaker 1: to set as a as a as a standard vaccination goal. Yeah, doctor, 424 00:23:05,760 --> 00:23:07,919 Speaker 1: a lot of talk now about sort of what the 425 00:23:07,920 --> 00:23:12,080 Speaker 1: next step is for those folks who have been fully vaccinated. Fiser, 426 00:23:12,160 --> 00:23:15,720 Speaker 1: of course coming out yesterday and talking about the idea 427 00:23:15,720 --> 00:23:19,040 Speaker 1: of a booster shot the CDC saying that well, maybe 428 00:23:19,040 --> 00:23:22,760 Speaker 1: not quite yet here where do we stand. Well, all 429 00:23:22,760 --> 00:23:26,200 Speaker 1: the data so far from the US looks like vaccination, 430 00:23:26,280 --> 00:23:29,720 Speaker 1: particularly vaccination with the MR and A based vaccines, is 431 00:23:29,720 --> 00:23:33,919 Speaker 1: protecting against delta variant. So I like the fact that 432 00:23:34,000 --> 00:23:37,359 Speaker 1: Fiser has gone forward with the clinical trial to show 433 00:23:37,359 --> 00:23:40,200 Speaker 1: what a booster will do um. I think that's important 434 00:23:40,240 --> 00:23:42,800 Speaker 1: data to have. I don't see it as an eminent 435 00:23:42,840 --> 00:23:46,600 Speaker 1: thing in terms of a guidance for the US population, 436 00:23:47,200 --> 00:23:50,679 Speaker 1: but this virus moves quickly. Variants are merging fast, and 437 00:23:50,720 --> 00:23:52,800 Speaker 1: I think the fiser move is good in terms of 438 00:23:52,880 --> 00:23:56,400 Speaker 1: preparing for the future. If we get a variant that's 439 00:23:56,400 --> 00:23:59,600 Speaker 1: even more deadly than Delta, then a booster maybe an 440 00:23:59,600 --> 00:24:03,960 Speaker 1: important thing that to to consider. And having fiser Um 441 00:24:03,960 --> 00:24:06,359 Speaker 1: completed the clinical trials for that, there's gonna be a 442 00:24:06,359 --> 00:24:09,000 Speaker 1: good thing in terms of helping us be prepared for that. Professor, 443 00:24:09,080 --> 00:24:10,879 Speaker 1: it's gonna hate for me, said, it's gonna catch you out. 444 00:24:10,880 --> 00:24:12,240 Speaker 1: We go some breaking news we need to run to. 445 00:24:12,560 --> 00:24:15,840 Speaker 1: Andrew Peco, stat John's Healthians, bloombeg skill of the public help. 446 00:24:16,320 --> 00:24:20,080 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Thanks for listening. Join 447 00:24:20,200 --> 00:24:23,520 Speaker 1: us live weekdays from seven to ten am Eastern on 448 00:24:23,640 --> 00:24:27,879 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio and on Bloomberg Television each day from six 449 00:24:27,960 --> 00:24:32,840 Speaker 1: to nine am for insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 450 00:24:33,000 --> 00:24:38,000 Speaker 1: and international relations. And subscribe to the Surveillance Podcast on 451 00:24:38,080 --> 00:24:41,920 Speaker 1: Apple Podcast SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot com, and of course, on 452 00:24:42,040 --> 00:24:46,119 Speaker 1: the terminal. I'm Tom Keene and this is Bloomberg