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Speaker 1: This is Master's in Business with very rid Holds on

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 2: This week on the podcast, I have an extra special guest.

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Speaker 2: Juadmion publishes a fascinating macro advisory letter that is read

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Speaker 2: by many of the most well known and influential investors

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Speaker 2: on not just Wall Street, but around the world. He

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Speaker 2: brings a fascinating approach and a bit of a outlier

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Speaker 2: contrarian way of looking at the world that has allowed

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Speaker 2: him to identify specific changes in what's taking place in

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Speaker 2: the economy, in the markets, and essentially provide a helpful

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Speaker 2: sounding board to many of the world's best investors. I

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Speaker 2: found our conversation to be absolutely fascinating, and I think

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Speaker 2: you will also, so with no further ado stray reflections,

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Speaker 2: Jawad me on, Welcome to Bloomberg.

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Speaker 1: Pleasure being in Berry.

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Speaker 2: So you and I exchange emails one hundred years ago,

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Speaker 2: a long time ago, and you just surprised me by

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Speaker 2: telling me I published your first published piece, which was

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Speaker 2: essentially your resignation ladder. Let's start with that. Tell us

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Speaker 2: a little bit about that.

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Speaker 1: So I've always had this admission to do my own thing,

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Speaker 1: and I had a very unconventional background I saw my

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Speaker 1: career as a bank donner, but fet in love with

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Speaker 1: markets and read all the right books to get inspired.

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Speaker 1: And I had this goal that I want to do

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Speaker 1: my own thing by the time turning thirty, and if

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Speaker 1: I have a few years of savings, I'll quit and

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Speaker 1: start writing. As I started practicing writing online and I

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Speaker 1: looked up to you as the big picture of blog

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Speaker 1: and I reached out to you with some of my

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Speaker 1: work and you published then.

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Speaker 2: And by the way, for a young writer with not

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Speaker 2: a lot of experience, your stuff was very tight and strong.

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Speaker 2: You have a good voice.

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Speaker 1: So you effectively published my work before I launched a Reflections.

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Speaker 1: And the last thing you published was my resignation letter,

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Speaker 1: which is really the sort of inspirational, flowing words about

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Speaker 1: why I'm leaving my job to unfold my personal legend

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Speaker 1: as I was thinking about at that time, inspired by

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Speaker 1: the Alchemist.

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Speaker 2: So let's talk a little bit about what Stray Reflections

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Speaker 2: is today and who your clients are. Tell us a

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Speaker 2: little bit about your research.

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Speaker 1: So so Reflections is a macro advisory and community that

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Speaker 1: works with portfolio managers CIOs around the world. They rely

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Speaker 1: on me to challenge their beliefs expand their knowledge to

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Speaker 1: help them think about the world differently, and I do

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Speaker 1: that through different ways. First, it's just my research, my writing,

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Speaker 1: and I'm allowed to be reflective. I don't publish daily

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Speaker 1: or weekly. I'm not reacting to events. I can be

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Speaker 1: deeply reflective about what's going on. So two three times

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Speaker 1: a month, I'll write about some topic or theme that's interesting.

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Speaker 1: We do that through online events, So I'll interview someone

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Speaker 1: from the community about a particular topic. I don't claim

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Speaker 1: to be an expert in everything, but if there's something

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Speaker 1: interesting happening in biotech or in China or fed policy

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Speaker 1: or AI, we'll have a salon, an online salon that

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Speaker 1: we sort of discuss ideas. And I think core part

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Speaker 1: is just yearround events. I'll travel to New York and London,

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Speaker 1: in Miami, in Hong Kong and Singapore, La San Francisco,

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Speaker 1: Dubai every six weeks and we'll do a dinner or

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Speaker 1: breakfast somewhere and we're all exchanging ideas. A core principle

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Speaker 1: is all of us as motter than any of us,

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Speaker 1: and I really lean into that, and so I learned

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Speaker 1: a lot from the community. And then the fourth element

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Speaker 1: would be like a slack group where every sort of

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Speaker 1: exchange ideas you know in real time, and the fifth

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Speaker 1: and the most important element is just one on one conversations.

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Speaker 1: I'm a big believer in building strong relationships, and that's

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Speaker 1: kind of what develops the research idea of Flywheel. Understanding

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Speaker 1: from people, what they're thinking, what they're concerned about. That

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Speaker 1: inspires me to like sort of focus on what I

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Speaker 1: need to write about, and in a nutshell, that's what

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Speaker 1: we do.

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Speaker 2: So we're going to get into specifics about secular bull

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Speaker 2: and bear markets, what causes the zeitgeist that leads to bubbles.

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Speaker 2: We'll talk about a bunch of really interesting things, what

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Speaker 2: is and isn't reflected in market prices, and where the

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Speaker 2: hell is that pesky recession that we've been waiting for

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Speaker 2: for so long. But for now, I want to stay

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Speaker 2: with the fact that, unlike traditional strategists or macroeconomists, you

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Speaker 2: bring a very specific philosophical bends to the world of

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Speaker 2: strategy and analysis, which is something that I very much

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Speaker 2: relate to. What motivated that sort of approach to writing

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Speaker 2: about dry technical topics like the economy or the FED

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Speaker 2: or AI.

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Speaker 1: I mean, some of the greatest writers have talents that

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Speaker 1: are very odd with their experiences. If you think about

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Speaker 1: you know, Hermin melv he couldn't stand life aboard his ship.

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Speaker 1: He wrote Moby dick. Ernest Hemingway spent time away from

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Speaker 1: the action in the Wars, but he became the greatest

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Speaker 1: wartime writer ever. You know. Jack Kerouac was famous pneumatic

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Speaker 1: that he wrote on the road at the home of

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Speaker 1: his mother. Jane Austin remained single, but she became the

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Speaker 1: chronicle revered, chronicle of courtship, love and marriage. Emily Browntie,

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Speaker 1: you know, liked to keep in her own company. But

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Speaker 1: when she wrote Wuthering Heights, people thought that it's written

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Speaker 1: by a man because he painted such a visually, viciously

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Speaker 1: brutal world. And Emily Dickinson, you know, she liked being

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Speaker 1: by herself. In her poetry. She enveiled the secrets of

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Speaker 1: the universe. And so when I asked myself the question,

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Speaker 1: I might qualified to provide investment advice. But I realized

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Speaker 1: was in all these instances, they're distance from the subject

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Speaker 1: not undermine their credibility. It only allowed them to be

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Speaker 1: more curious and examine it in ways that perhaps others

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Speaker 1: wouldn't and so for the longest time, I actually thought

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Speaker 1: that my unconventional background. I wasn't, you know, an Ivy

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Speaker 1: League student, I didn't train at an interest bank. I

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Speaker 1: was and working for a hedgehront I started my career

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Speaker 1: as a bank teer. For the longest time, I thought

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Speaker 1: that unconventional and backgrounds are shortcoming. But what I realized

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Speaker 1: over the years of the help and encouragement of the community,

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Speaker 1: that's actually a core strength because I think view the

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Speaker 1: world differently from the back majority of Western born and freennalists.

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Speaker 2: It's funny that you say the phrase view the world differently.

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Speaker 2: There literally was just a Wall Street Journal article out

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Speaker 2: recently that said ninety percent of the investment bank economists

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Speaker 2: all went to the same six graduate schools, which means

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Speaker 2: that as much as we'd like to think there's some

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Speaker 2: variation of thought, essentially it's the same factory cranking out

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Speaker 2: the same widgets. We can't be surprised that they all

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Speaker 2: more or less say the same thing. We'll talk about

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Speaker 2: the forever coming but never seem to get here recession.

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Speaker 2: But that seems to correlate very strongly that the same

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Speaker 2: group of people with the same background are going to

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Speaker 2: yield the same investment result is that more or less fair.

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Speaker 1: I can't speak to others.

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Speaker 2: I know, I that's very generous of you.

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Speaker 1: But it's certainly you. Look, when I launched the business,

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Speaker 1: I realized I'm not unique in what I do, because

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Speaker 1: there are lots of other people out there who are

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Speaker 1: writing opinions about the market. But I am unique in

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Speaker 1: who I am, And so I've made it a point

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Speaker 1: to always write from a personal space and really cultivate,

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Speaker 1: you know, the craft of writing and really examining markets objectively,

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Speaker 1: becoming very agnostic in my analysis as opposed to ideological,

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Speaker 1: and empirical, as opposed to dogmatic. So I don't care

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Speaker 1: to be consensus of countrary and bullish or bearish. I

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Speaker 1: just want to be independent and come to the truth.

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Speaker 2: So in a lot of your writings you cite loud

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Speaker 2: to Buddha, Confucius, Seneca. That's a broad assortment of influences.

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Speaker 2: What led you to that group of thinkers? And how

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Speaker 2: do the great philosophers affect how you think about market issues?

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Speaker 1: Look, I think life in markets are intertwined. You know,

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Speaker 1: the biggest risk in markets is ego. I would say

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Speaker 1: the biggest risk in life is ego. The biggest virtue

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Speaker 1: in markets and life is humility. I often say successful

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Speaker 1: investing is only possible with knowledge of oneself. And so

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Speaker 1: I think for me, when I started writing, it was

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Speaker 1: as much a process of self inquiry as it was

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Speaker 1: examining markets. And you start to see the overlap and

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Speaker 1: similarities and the biases and the common mistakes that keep

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Speaker 1: coming up. You just have to keep cultivating a better

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Speaker 1: version of yourself and keep working in progress. And I

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Speaker 1: feel like there's a lot to be said about ancient wisdom.

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Speaker 1: It's almost like everything's we've said before, but no one

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Speaker 1: was listening, so it's being reported again and said again.

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Speaker 1: So I benefit a lot from the virtues the wisdom

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Speaker 1: from ancient stages for its philosophers. I think it helps

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Speaker 1: me see the world clearly. You know. I believe the

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Speaker 1: more clarity we have internally, the more clarity we have

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Speaker 1: in seeing things, and so all that all those people

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Speaker 1: that you cite are helping me in terms of being

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Speaker 1: a better person, you know, being aware of my biases

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Speaker 1: and just yeah, being a much clearer thinker.

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Speaker 2: So let's talk about that ego and humility. All the

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Speaker 2: best investors recognize their own fallibility, the fact that nobody

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Speaker 2: bats a thousand, that we all frequently make mistakes. Ray

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Speaker 2: Dalyio's book Principles is essentially a treatise on go try something,

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Speaker 2: make a mistake, learn from that error incorporated into your process.

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Speaker 2: Try again. But even saying it out loud, it still

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Speaker 2: sounds fairly radical. Why can't we accept the fact that

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Speaker 2: investing is such a humbling art and requires humility of

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Speaker 2: its practitioners.

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Speaker 1: The way I think about it, Barie, is again from

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Speaker 1: a spiritual angle, all the profits made this particular prayer.

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Speaker 1: Oh God, show us things as they are, and so

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Speaker 1: for me, the objective is to see things as they are,

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Speaker 1: not so much as how I want it to be.

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Speaker 1: So I even watch myself when I use their words

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Speaker 1: like should the market should behave this way? I think

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Speaker 1: that hypocrisy. The market shouldn't behave one way or another.

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Speaker 1: It is what it is right. So I've got a

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Speaker 1: particular view, You've got your view, and then there's a

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Speaker 1: divine view or the market view. So how can you

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Speaker 1: get close to that truth? Only by shedding yourself, shedding

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Speaker 1: your ego, insisting that the market behave a particular way

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Speaker 1: and I'm okay to be curious, you know, And that's

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Speaker 1: a big difference.

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Speaker 2: I always think of various strategist, economist, traders. Whoever. It's

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Speaker 2: like the I want to say John Saxony poem about

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Speaker 2: the six blind men describing the elephant. Everybody captures a

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Speaker 2: small aspect of it. Oh, this ropey thing is the tail,

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Speaker 2: and here are the tusts. But very few people manage

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Speaker 2: to see the entirety of the market because of their

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Speaker 2: vantage point.

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Speaker 1: And I think that's where the community comes in, right,

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Speaker 1: Because I don't claim to be a guru or a

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Speaker 1: market expert. I'm just genuinely curious, and I'm happy to

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Speaker 1: know and admit that I don't know everything. Frankly, that's

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Speaker 1: been one of the greatest liberalizations in my life. If

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Speaker 1: it's the fact I don't need to know everything, and

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Speaker 1: I don't know everything, and I can rely and trust

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Speaker 1: other people within the community. So I don't have a

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Speaker 1: particular strong opinion about a particular topic, I'll go look

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Speaker 1: at the expert and have a conversation with him or her,

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Speaker 1: and so I can lean on the community. Again, this

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Speaker 1: idea that all of us are smarter than any of us,

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Speaker 1: and I don't have a particular ego that needs to

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Speaker 1: be presented and you know, articulated in a particular way.

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Speaker 1: I'm happy to just say I don't know when I

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Speaker 1: really don't know. Huh.

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Speaker 2: Really interesting. Let's talk about something you published last August,

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Speaker 2: in the midst of the first double digit downturn for

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Speaker 2: both stocks and bonds in the same year in just

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Speaker 2: about forty years, you defined and discussed a secular ballmarkt

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Speaker 2: and that very much resonated with me. Before we go further,

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Speaker 2: let's just define it. What is a secular bull market?

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Speaker 1: So a secular bull market would be a period of

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Speaker 1: a long period of above average equity returns where you

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Speaker 1: have pullbacks but they're shorter in duration and magnitude than

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Speaker 1: otherwise expected, and the recoveries are quick, and you've got

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Speaker 1: rising risk appetite and valuations climb or expand. And a

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Speaker 1: secular baar market would be the vice versa, right, the

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Speaker 1: fact that you've got declining risk appetite, declines are prolonged deep,

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Speaker 1: and valuations mean revert.

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Speaker 2: So let's take a couple of examples. Tell us about

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Speaker 2: the post World War II secular bull market. How would

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Speaker 2: you define and characterize that period.

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Speaker 1: So by nineteen fifty, the SMER five hundred was stuck

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Speaker 1: at the twenty level on the index for about thirteen

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Speaker 1: fourteen years. And in nineteen fifty is when you finally

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Speaker 1: broke out. And between nineteen fifty to nineteen sixty eight,

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Speaker 1: which is this first secular bull period, you had a

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Speaker 1: gain of about four nine fifty percent. You had nineteen fifties,

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Speaker 1: which is the best decade for stocks ever. We forget,

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Speaker 1: but that's still That whole period actually had three recessions.

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Speaker 1: It had the Korean War, it had the Cuban missile crisis,

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Speaker 1: it had the race riots, It had three corrections of

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Speaker 1: over twenty percent. It had bonials that went from two

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Speaker 1: point two percent to nearly six percent, and yet equities

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Speaker 1: did well. That was a period of nineteen fifty to

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Speaker 1: nineteen sixty eight. The second and what's interesting by that period,

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Speaker 1: you know, is the fact that valuations actually peaked in

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Speaker 1: nineteen sixty one, yet the market peak in nineteen sixty eight,

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Speaker 1: So in.

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Speaker 2: Other words, despite falling multiples, the prices continue go high.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so interesting valuations are EBB and flow. So the

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Speaker 1: peak and valuations in nineteen sixty one at twenty two

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Speaker 1: times multiple. But by nineteen sixty eight, even when the

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Speaker 1: index made it stop, the PE was trading at eighteen times.

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Speaker 1: And the reason that's important is because there's a lot

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Speaker 1: of talkbout valuation now and I feel like we may

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Speaker 1: have seen the valuations peak for this cycle in twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty one at twenty three times four PE, but that

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Speaker 1: doesn't mean necessarily the secular board market is over. So

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Speaker 1: this secular board market that we're in today began in

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Speaker 1: twenty thirteen when we finally broke about the fifteen hundred

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Speaker 1: level that was capping the index since two thousand, right,

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Speaker 1: So that.

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Speaker 2: Was a thirteen year secular bear market that had huge rallies,

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Speaker 2: huge selloffs, but you never got above that two thousand.

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Speaker 1: Peak, and the second board market began with a four

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Speaker 1: PE of thirteen. We rose to twenty three last October.

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Speaker 1: We bought them around fifteen in a bit, and we're

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Speaker 1: at eighteen now. So again, this is thirteen to twenty

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Speaker 1: three down to fifteen. We will not get to twenty

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Speaker 1: three in my opinion, But can we get to twenty one? Sure?

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Speaker 1: I think so.

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Speaker 2: So you mentioned the Korean War, you mentioned recessions, You

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Speaker 2: wrote about the JFK assassination, the Cuban missile crisis, A

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Speaker 2: lot of things happen. How do we contextualize an extraneous

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Speaker 2: event like the pandemic. Does it should say to us, hey,

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Speaker 2: this secular bull market is over. Or does it just

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Speaker 2: cause a wabble and we go back to the prior

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Speaker 2: trand So.

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Speaker 1: Every secular bill market usually has like this mid cycle crash.

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Speaker 2: Right. Seventy three seventy four was a bear market. Actually

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Speaker 2: it was in the middle of the bear market. You're

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Speaker 2: saying bull markets.

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Speaker 1: Even a secular bull market has like a mid cycle crash, right. So,

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Speaker 1: for example, in the nineteen fifty to ninety sixty eight

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Speaker 1: bull market, the mid cycle crash was the nineteen sixty

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Speaker 1: one Kennedy beer market. The market fell down thirty percent.

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Speaker 1: In the nineteen eighty two to two thousand market, you

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Speaker 1: had the mid cycle crash. In the eighty seven crash.

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Speaker 2: Had eighty seven, you had ninety seven, you had ninety eight.

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Speaker 2: There were a number of really substantis, but.

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Speaker 1: We have an event that really shocks in nusters, right,

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Speaker 1: just like eighty seven was very shocking, and the decline

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Speaker 1: in the Kennedy beer market was very shocking. Happened very quickly,

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Speaker 1: and the pandemic was something like that. It was a

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Speaker 1: mid cycle crash in the way I perceive it. And

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Speaker 1: so what's more important, I think, apart from this the

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Speaker 1: technical conversation we're having around the inde season, the breakouts,

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Speaker 1: the pandemic made a significant difference from a fundamental standpoint

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Speaker 1: because obviously fundamental underprintings to the secular bol market. You know,

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Speaker 1: number one is the fact that the house was not

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Speaker 1: in better financial conditions than they have been since you know,

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Speaker 1: the GFC. But number two is form a demographic standpoint, Right,

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Speaker 1: the millennials are now the largest generation in America, and

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Speaker 1: if you think about the nineteen eighty secular ble market,

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Speaker 1: ninety eighty one is when you had the baby Boomers

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Speaker 1: begin to turn thirty five, entering their peak earning years.

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Speaker 1: The millennials started doing that in twenty sixteen, and the

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Speaker 1: pandemic was important because after the pandemic, household well for

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Speaker 1: millennials increased. So if you compare it in prison dollars,

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Speaker 1: so when the boomer turned thirty five in ninety any one,

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Speaker 1: his net worth was around one hundred and thirty six

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Speaker 1: thousand dollars in comparable dollars today the millennials that won

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Speaker 1: twenty eight thousand.

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Speaker 2: Dollars so comparable on compromation, just base absolutely.

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Speaker 1: And what's more interesting is that the pandemic I think

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Speaker 1: created this psychological fear and anxiety about wanting financial safety

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Speaker 1: and securing your financial future. So you've seen more home

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Speaker 1: ownership interest and more stock participation because the pandemic was

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Speaker 1: like this visceral death experience, wake up call, then you

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Speaker 1: want to and money is a proxy for safety. So

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Speaker 1: you've seen this dynamic where millennials are increasingly taking participation

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Speaker 1: in financial markets, in home ownership, and so home ownership

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Speaker 1: has increased from thirty eight percent to forty six percent

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Speaker 1: for millennials over the last seven years, and that's going

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Speaker 1: to continue to increase. So they're entering the peak earning years,

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Speaker 1: and that I think that's demographic impulse is still underappreciated.

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Speaker 2: Interesting. Let's talk about that eighty to two thousand bull market.

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Speaker 2: Some people dated it nineteen eighty two. It depends if

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Speaker 2: you looking at the DOW or the SMP. How did

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Speaker 2: the SMP do over that twenty year period.

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Speaker 1: I think during that period we're probably up about seventeen

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Speaker 1: hundred percent, I believe, and again.

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Speaker 2: Seventeen percent because I know that Dow was about one

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Speaker 2: thousand percent. The SMP did even better.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, And I think what's interesting about that period is again,

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Speaker 1: you had the eighty seven crash, you had the ninety

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Speaker 1: ninety SNL crisis, you had the Gulf fur, the Latam crisis,

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Speaker 1: the Asian crisis, the Russian default, the bond blood but

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Speaker 1: you know blood path in ninety four, So you always

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Speaker 1: have these events. And you still had three cructionits of

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Speaker 1: about twenty percent. And so even the current secudable market

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Speaker 1: when you put it in context. The reason the context

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Speaker 1: is important is because we've been in the second boll market.

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Speaker 1: We're currently since twenty thirteen, the stocks up one hundred

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Speaker 1: and seventy five percent, So we lack the upside. We

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Speaker 1: haven't reached the sort of upside in terms of price,

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Speaker 1: and not even terms of duration. So the previous bull

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Speaker 1: markets were eighteen years long. We're like nine years in.

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Speaker 1: So it's two thirds of the way through, I would

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Speaker 1: probably say. And so what's interesting is we've raised hundred

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Speaker 1: and twenty five percent despite the US China trade war,

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Speaker 1: despite the pandemic, despite unacceptably high inflation, the energy crisis,

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Speaker 1: in your bank failures again despite all of that, and

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Speaker 1: I think we're going to continue to power ahead because

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Speaker 1: of structurally changes in the economy that again we're not

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Speaker 1: appreciating fully.

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Speaker 2: So what do people misunderstand about cyclical versus secular well markets?

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Speaker 2: And as long as we're talking about that, I have

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Speaker 2: to ask, what's the significance of the twenty percent measure

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Speaker 2: that the media seems to love for starting and finishing

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Speaker 2: bull and bear markets?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that's interesting, right, So I think the twenty percent

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Speaker 1: measure there's nothing significant about it, but it's an interesting

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Speaker 1: study that you can do around it, right. So what

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Speaker 1: we looked was, let's segment the twenty percent decline between

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Speaker 1: a secular bull market and a secular bear market, and

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Speaker 1: what's the difference. What you realize is when you have

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Speaker 1: a twenty percent decline plus in a secular bull market,

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Speaker 1: the average decline is twenty seven percent and the recovery

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Speaker 1: to the highest nine months. In a secular bear market,

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Speaker 1: the average decline is forty three percent, wow, and the

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Speaker 1: recovery to the highest forty eight months.

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Speaker 2: Huge difference in both depth than duration.

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Speaker 1: So when people compare the current sort of bare cycle

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Speaker 1: to two thousand and one and two thousand and eight.

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Speaker 1: The reason I think that's flawed is because that was

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Speaker 1: in a secular bear market.

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Speaker 2: And nineteen percent, and so, in other words, you're implying

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Speaker 2: that the recovery to the pre twenty twenty two highs

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Speaker 2: is not that far off?

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Speaker 1: Is not that far off?

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Speaker 2: Huh? That's really intriguing. Zoom out a little bit. What

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Speaker 2: makes a secular bull market so strong, so perfasive, long lasting,

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Speaker 2: and resilient.

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Speaker 1: I think I mentioned the demographic impulse. I think it's

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Speaker 1: a significantly important one. I think the second is the

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Speaker 1: household finances, which is also related to why we somehow

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Speaker 1: skirted a recession so far, and the consumer spend.

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Speaker 2: Things all time highs. It's really robust.

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Speaker 1: You know. A question I'd like to ask is what

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Speaker 1: is happening that shouldn't be or what is not happening

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Speaker 1: that should be right? And given the sort of fat

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Speaker 1: tightening and all the information we've received, it's surprising to

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Speaker 1: see the markets hold up. Simple answer. Second level market,

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Speaker 1: it's significant to see the housing market bounce back. Simple answer,

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Speaker 1: demographics and why we aren't in a recession, you know,

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Speaker 1: simple answer, I would say that rate sensitivity in the

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Speaker 1: US economy is historically low. And what I mean by

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Speaker 1: that is post GFC, we had this beautifully leveraging that

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Speaker 1: Bridgeworder talked about, but post pandemic has gotten even better

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Speaker 1: because you have the boost to incomes and you have

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Speaker 1: the further dropped interest costs. So if you look at

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Speaker 1: household debt service to disposable income ration as below nineteen

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Speaker 1: eighty levels when the data series began, that's pretty significant.

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Speaker 1: So you can have a five percent fed funds rate

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Speaker 1: and the consumer is not stopping. At the same time,

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Speaker 1: if you look at corporates, they extended their maturities for

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Speaker 1: their liabilities from five years to seven years, their interst

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Speaker 1: costs as a share of debt is three and a

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Speaker 1: half percent, the lowes since nineteen fifty. And then you

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Speaker 1: look at the mortgage market, that's another, you know, phenomenal backdrop.

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Speaker 1: So the rate sensitivity to the US economy is historically low.

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Speaker 1: So the house is in a much better position today

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Speaker 1: than they ever were. The reason, despite global tightening, we

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Speaker 1: haven't seen a slowdown in sort of in a major

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Speaker 1: slowdown in consumer spending is partly because of the fact

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Speaker 1: that we had significant gains in savings, not just exis sittings,

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Speaker 1: but total saving because of hours worked. So checking about

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Speaker 1: this today, our fortune and dollars higher than they were

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Speaker 1: pre pandemic. We're underappreciating the amount of money still in

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Speaker 1: the system and what that means for demand. The demand

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Speaker 1: side of the economy because of the pandemic took a

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Speaker 1: massive upward shock that I still don't think you know

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Speaker 1: that we're fully getting our heads around.

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Speaker 2: Really really quite intriguing. Let's talk a little bit about

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Speaker 2: how markets for people. What is it that makes investors

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Speaker 2: so susceptible to being fooled? And why do investors seem

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Speaker 2: to love the bearish argument? Why is that so compelling?

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Speaker 2: What makes mister market so able to convince us of

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Speaker 2: one thing and then he goes off and does something else.

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Speaker 1: It's interesting. A question I've been asking is what if

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Speaker 1: the greatest trick the market ever pulled was convincing industrials

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Speaker 1: that were still in a bear market? Right?

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Speaker 2: A variation of the old Devil quote from I don't

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Speaker 2: know if that's New Testament old Testament, but so lots

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Speaker 2: of people are negative, lots of people are bearish. It's

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Speaker 2: not quite as bad as my recollection of twenty ten,

436
00:23:35,200 --> 00:23:40,199
Speaker 2: eleven twelve. But coming out of the financial crisis, people

437
00:23:40,480 --> 00:23:45,040
Speaker 2: stayed bearish despite the fifty six percent collapse in the SMP.

438
00:23:45,640 --> 00:23:48,560
Speaker 2: You would think that should be enough to say, Okay,

439
00:23:48,600 --> 00:23:52,760
Speaker 2: we got our bearish reset. Last year was pretty modest,

440
00:23:53,200 --> 00:23:58,320
Speaker 2: down nineteen percent. Yeah, bonds were down fifteen percent. But

441
00:23:59,040 --> 00:24:01,240
Speaker 2: everybody seems to think that's it, it's over.

442
00:24:02,880 --> 00:24:04,879
Speaker 1: It is a difficult business, though, ry right, if you

443
00:24:04,920 --> 00:24:08,520
Speaker 1: think about it, it seems so obvious now that we

444
00:24:08,560 --> 00:24:12,400
Speaker 1: should be owning Microsoft and Apple and Amazon and Google

445
00:24:12,480 --> 00:24:16,920
Speaker 1: and Facebook, and so obvious. But I would argue ten

446
00:24:17,000 --> 00:24:20,159
Speaker 1: years ago it wasn't so obvious. Ten years ago. You

447
00:24:20,240 --> 00:24:23,760
Speaker 1: had the top academics, economists, investors in America writing a

448
00:24:23,840 --> 00:24:26,640
Speaker 1: letter to the Fed in twenty ten saying, hey, stop

449
00:24:26,720 --> 00:24:29,840
Speaker 1: que you're going to create hyperinflation and debate the dollar.

450
00:24:30,400 --> 00:24:33,280
Speaker 1: In twenty eleven, you had the debt ceiling crisis, the

451
00:24:33,359 --> 00:24:36,040
Speaker 1: credit rating got downgraded, the dollars at a fifty year low,

452
00:24:36,600 --> 00:24:40,280
Speaker 1: so you did not have policy or political leadership that

453
00:24:40,320 --> 00:24:44,520
Speaker 1: was very inspiring. In twenty twelve, Facebook went public. The

454
00:24:44,600 --> 00:24:47,399
Speaker 1: IPO flopped, that's right, from thirty two dollars to like,

455
00:24:47,440 --> 00:24:50,640
Speaker 1: I think sixteen or eighteen dollars. In twenty fifteen, carled

456
00:24:50,800 --> 00:24:54,320
Speaker 1: Icons sold all his Netflix stick because it was too expensive.

457
00:24:55,040 --> 00:24:57,560
Speaker 1: Netflix was the best performing stock last decade. He sold

458
00:24:57,600 --> 00:25:00,439
Speaker 1: half his Apple stock in twenty fifteen. In twenty fifteen,

459
00:25:00,480 --> 00:25:03,040
Speaker 1: Bill Gurley at Benchmark were saying silicon values in a bubble.

460
00:25:04,359 --> 00:25:06,400
Speaker 1: So it's just interesting to do this exercise the fact

461
00:25:06,440 --> 00:25:08,879
Speaker 1: that it seems so obvious today, but it wasn't obvious

462
00:25:08,920 --> 00:25:10,840
Speaker 1: to hold on to these companies. It wasn't so obvious

463
00:25:10,880 --> 00:25:14,359
Speaker 1: that America will be the investment destination that's going to matter.

464
00:25:14,920 --> 00:25:17,959
Speaker 1: And so it's curious that I think we need to

465
00:25:17,960 --> 00:25:20,320
Speaker 1: just remind ourselves of this, the fact that it isn't

466
00:25:20,359 --> 00:25:23,639
Speaker 1: always easy, and what can we be missing, you know,

467
00:25:23,960 --> 00:25:27,000
Speaker 1: right now in the present. I always say my job

468
00:25:27,080 --> 00:25:29,240
Speaker 1: is not to predict the future. It's to see the

469
00:25:29,280 --> 00:25:30,680
Speaker 1: present clearly.

470
00:25:31,280 --> 00:25:34,240
Speaker 2: Which is much harder than it sounds. Let's talk a

471
00:25:34,280 --> 00:25:38,000
Speaker 2: little bit about something that people seem to have a

472
00:25:38,040 --> 00:25:43,840
Speaker 2: hard time recognizing, and that's each decade a theme emerges,

473
00:25:44,280 --> 00:25:48,320
Speaker 2: and yet this tends to come with some problems.

474
00:25:48,480 --> 00:25:50,439
Speaker 1: It's an opportunity if you think about it, because in

475
00:25:50,480 --> 00:25:53,639
Speaker 1: nineteen seventy. Like every decade, something happens, So in nineteen

476
00:25:53,680 --> 00:25:57,359
Speaker 1: seventy it was in the nineteen seventies it was the

477
00:25:57,440 --> 00:26:01,600
Speaker 1: nineteen seventy one breakdown of Beckenwoods, and that led to

478
00:26:01,800 --> 00:26:05,359
Speaker 1: inflation and the goldibul market. But nineteen eighty onwards, you

479
00:26:05,359 --> 00:26:08,600
Speaker 1: want to avoid gold. The zeitgeist of the nineteen eighties

480
00:26:08,680 --> 00:26:10,879
Speaker 1: was Japan's sticking over the world. So you want to

481
00:26:10,880 --> 00:26:13,480
Speaker 1: be long Japanese equities and Japanese real estate. It was

482
00:26:13,760 --> 00:26:16,520
Speaker 1: Japanese management techniques that were being passed around. They were

483
00:26:16,800 --> 00:26:19,359
Speaker 1: you have your children were learning Japanese. Japanese were the

484
00:26:19,440 --> 00:26:22,480
Speaker 1: villains in American movies. Japanese were buying real estate in

485
00:26:22,520 --> 00:26:25,400
Speaker 1: New York. But nineteen eighty nine onwards, that was a disaster.

486
00:26:25,920 --> 00:26:28,480
Speaker 1: The zycast of the nineteen nineties was the Internet. You

487
00:26:28,520 --> 00:26:31,679
Speaker 1: want to belong Nasdaq March two thousand onwards stopped working.

488
00:26:31,840 --> 00:26:34,399
Speaker 1: It's really interesting how they're literally a calendar decade. Barry.

489
00:26:35,080 --> 00:26:38,080
Speaker 1: The Zey Catches of two thousands was China's entrance into

490
00:26:38,080 --> 00:26:40,480
Speaker 1: the World Trade Organization in June two thousand and one.

491
00:26:41,000 --> 00:26:42,760
Speaker 1: So suddenly you can have the build out of the

492
00:26:42,800 --> 00:26:45,280
Speaker 1: world secondlargest economy. You will be long em and commodities.

493
00:26:46,480 --> 00:26:50,680
Speaker 1: The zeitgeist of the twenty tens was best articulated by

494
00:26:50,720 --> 00:26:53,520
Speaker 1: Mark Drisen in twenty eleven in a Wall Street Journal

495
00:26:53,600 --> 00:26:56,840
Speaker 1: article Software's hitting the world. So what you're seeing now

496
00:26:57,119 --> 00:26:59,960
Speaker 1: is the unraveling of that zeitgeist. So twenty twenty one

497
00:27:00,160 --> 00:27:01,840
Speaker 1: was the peak of that zeitgeist. It was all about

498
00:27:01,880 --> 00:27:06,320
Speaker 1: software and cloud. And the question is now the software

499
00:27:06,400 --> 00:27:10,760
Speaker 1: zitegeast is over. What's the zeitgeist for this decade? And

500
00:27:10,800 --> 00:27:12,960
Speaker 1: what we've been writing about in discussing in the community

501
00:27:13,320 --> 00:27:16,479
Speaker 1: is that we believe climate is a zeitgeist for this decade.

502
00:27:16,480 --> 00:27:17,720
Speaker 1: Now that climate change.

503
00:27:17,600 --> 00:27:20,680
Speaker 2: Just starting now, not peaking now, starting.

504
00:27:20,320 --> 00:27:22,560
Speaker 1: In starting in twenty three, So from the twenty twenty

505
00:27:22,600 --> 00:27:25,000
Speaker 1: to twenty thirty, just like software was from twenty ten

506
00:27:25,040 --> 00:27:28,240
Speaker 1: to twenty twenty, from twenty twenty to twenty thirty, the

507
00:27:28,320 --> 00:27:29,720
Speaker 1: zeitgeist is climate.

508
00:27:30,320 --> 00:27:33,400
Speaker 2: Is that an investible thesis? Is that something people can

509
00:27:33,440 --> 00:27:36,680
Speaker 2: put money into? Because when sure, you can look at

510
00:27:36,520 --> 00:27:39,919
Speaker 2: the low carbon funds and things, but are there a

511
00:27:39,960 --> 00:27:43,720
Speaker 2: way to say I want to participate in ems and

512
00:27:43,800 --> 00:27:47,639
Speaker 2: lithium and wind power and battery technology and all the

513
00:27:47,680 --> 00:27:50,080
Speaker 2: things that are going to drive the next decade. How

514
00:27:50,119 --> 00:27:52,080
Speaker 2: does an investor participate in that?

515
00:27:52,480 --> 00:27:57,760
Speaker 1: So the interesting thing with climate is there are multifaceted

516
00:27:57,800 --> 00:28:00,879
Speaker 1: ways to play different sectors, different communities from a bottoms

517
00:28:00,920 --> 00:28:04,680
Speaker 1: up standpoint as well. And again, now that it's become

518
00:28:04,680 --> 00:28:08,840
Speaker 1: a global economic and political priority, it's become a solution

519
00:28:09,119 --> 00:28:13,440
Speaker 1: for spending as opposed to a risk. You can see

520
00:28:13,800 --> 00:28:18,679
Speaker 1: higher capex this decade, so that benefits certain sectors. I

521
00:28:18,680 --> 00:28:22,199
Speaker 1: think the simplest expression would be the EV revolution In

522
00:28:22,240 --> 00:28:24,160
Speaker 1: many ways, I think the China EV I think BYD

523
00:28:24,280 --> 00:28:27,159
Speaker 1: would be a key asset to own this decade. I

524
00:28:27,160 --> 00:28:29,640
Speaker 1: think that could be the simplest expression of what goes on.

525
00:28:31,119 --> 00:28:34,040
Speaker 1: I think I don't believe you're in a commodity super cycle,

526
00:28:34,400 --> 00:28:37,159
Speaker 1: but I do believe certain commodities will win. And the

527
00:28:37,200 --> 00:28:40,400
Speaker 1: way to think about commodities is nicely as it relates

528
00:28:40,400 --> 00:28:43,440
Speaker 1: to the energy transition. But more specifically, it's not related

529
00:28:43,480 --> 00:28:46,560
Speaker 1: to China growth. It's related to China climate. What I

530
00:28:46,600 --> 00:28:50,040
Speaker 1: mean by that is that most likely no Western government

531
00:28:50,040 --> 00:28:53,400
Speaker 1: will meet their climate targets, the Chinese will meet their

532
00:28:53,400 --> 00:28:56,320
Speaker 1: climate targets because for them it's an existential issue. Air

533
00:28:56,320 --> 00:28:59,440
Speaker 1: pollution is a crisis what's the point of common prosperity

534
00:28:59,440 --> 00:29:02,680
Speaker 1: if you're going to get sick. And so China's old

535
00:29:02,720 --> 00:29:06,320
Speaker 1: growth model was one in which they increase production capacity

536
00:29:06,360 --> 00:29:07,720
Speaker 1: in a lot of base metals because they want to

537
00:29:07,720 --> 00:29:11,320
Speaker 1: create employment. That no longer makes sense. So for example,

538
00:29:11,800 --> 00:29:15,520
Speaker 1: you know, China became two thirds of the global aluminum market.

539
00:29:16,000 --> 00:29:19,800
Speaker 1: They're going to start to reduce capacity within that to

540
00:29:20,080 --> 00:29:22,920
Speaker 1: reduce emissions because they're importing our materials to produce that.

541
00:29:23,200 --> 00:29:26,520
Speaker 1: So they're probably emitting sixteen to seventeen ton carbon proton

542
00:29:26,840 --> 00:29:29,720
Speaker 1: compared to what let's say someone like Alcoa is doing,

543
00:29:29,920 --> 00:29:32,280
Speaker 1: you know, two or three. And so you're going to

544
00:29:32,280 --> 00:29:36,720
Speaker 1: see China rationalize its industry. It's capacity in certain key

545
00:29:36,720 --> 00:29:39,880
Speaker 1: based metals aluminum and steel amongst them. And I think

546
00:29:40,000 --> 00:29:42,160
Speaker 1: you want to monitor what they're doing on their climate

547
00:29:42,200 --> 00:29:45,880
Speaker 1: front to understand which commodity is to be long not

548
00:29:46,760 --> 00:29:50,200
Speaker 1: across the board, and so certain commodities will do well

549
00:29:50,240 --> 00:29:52,000
Speaker 1: as part of the energy transition. I think China ev

550
00:29:52,160 --> 00:29:55,200
Speaker 1: story works. You know a lot of it is just retrofitting,

551
00:29:55,320 --> 00:29:58,640
Speaker 1: and you know, you know, like buildings, and you know

552
00:29:58,840 --> 00:30:02,040
Speaker 1: the role ACS play in emissions and read retrofiting that

553
00:30:02,440 --> 00:30:04,280
Speaker 1: and there's a lot of companies sitting in Japan and

554
00:30:04,360 --> 00:30:06,640
Speaker 1: Korea and Taiwan that are mid gap engineering names that

555
00:30:06,680 --> 00:30:09,480
Speaker 1: sort of benefit from that. You know, higher capacks like

556
00:30:09,520 --> 00:30:12,120
Speaker 1: I mentioned, you know who benefits from that, and so

557
00:30:12,120 --> 00:30:14,600
Speaker 1: what you'd realize as you look deeper and deeper into this,

558
00:30:14,960 --> 00:30:17,280
Speaker 1: it's not so much a US centric story. It's so

559
00:30:17,360 --> 00:30:19,880
Speaker 1: much more global story. So you could argue you can

560
00:30:19,920 --> 00:30:22,800
Speaker 1: see non US markets begin to upperform.

561
00:30:22,760 --> 00:30:27,080
Speaker 2: And that's already happened the past eighteen months. Developed xus

562
00:30:27,400 --> 00:30:30,800
Speaker 2: has done better than the US markets have done going

563
00:30:30,880 --> 00:30:33,200
Speaker 2: back to let's call at the end of twenty one.

564
00:30:33,360 --> 00:30:37,320
Speaker 2: So that's following what a ten or fourteen year period

565
00:30:37,400 --> 00:30:41,959
Speaker 2: of US outperformance, So not unexpected. Let me throw a

566
00:30:42,120 --> 00:30:46,360
Speaker 2: quote of yours at you and have you describe it.

567
00:30:46,960 --> 00:30:47,360
Speaker 1: Quote.

568
00:30:47,400 --> 00:30:50,400
Speaker 2: It's more valuable to consider why we aren't in a

569
00:30:50,520 --> 00:30:54,320
Speaker 2: US recession rather than nervously dreading one.

570
00:30:54,440 --> 00:30:57,600
Speaker 1: Explain again, that's the point of you know, staying in

571
00:30:57,600 --> 00:31:02,040
Speaker 1: the present. And I think the reason why we're not

572
00:31:02,320 --> 00:31:05,040
Speaker 1: is the fact that I think rate sensitivity is historically low,

573
00:31:05,200 --> 00:31:08,320
Speaker 1: the fact that rate sens intustrate sensitivity for the US

574
00:31:08,360 --> 00:31:10,480
Speaker 1: economy is historically low. So you can actually have five

575
00:31:10,520 --> 00:31:13,360
Speaker 1: percent interust rates and the consumer doesn't stop because we're

576
00:31:13,680 --> 00:31:17,480
Speaker 1: not fully adjusting for how strong the household finances are.

577
00:31:17,720 --> 00:31:20,120
Speaker 1: But more important than that, based on I think more

578
00:31:20,160 --> 00:31:24,600
Speaker 1: recent conversations, I would argue, maybe you've already had a

579
00:31:24,600 --> 00:31:27,960
Speaker 1: recession and the only indicator that hasn't cracked yet is

580
00:31:28,000 --> 00:31:30,320
Speaker 1: the labor market, and that's what everybody is sort of

581
00:31:30,360 --> 00:31:34,080
Speaker 1: focused on now. And my view there is also sort

582
00:31:34,120 --> 00:31:37,400
Speaker 1: of contentious because I don't expect the labor market to crack.

583
00:31:37,680 --> 00:31:41,480
Speaker 1: I actually believe the labor market is in a secular tightness.

584
00:31:42,600 --> 00:31:48,320
Speaker 1: Let me explain. In the past, recessions have basically destroyed demand.

585
00:31:49,200 --> 00:31:54,320
Speaker 1: You've seen job losses in goods producing sectors, manufacturing, auto construction.

586
00:31:55,680 --> 00:31:59,959
Speaker 1: Job openings take years to recover. The pandemic was different

587
00:32:00,480 --> 00:32:04,560
Speaker 1: because the disruption happened in labor supply and on the

588
00:32:04,560 --> 00:32:07,200
Speaker 1: demand side, we actually created a huge positive demand shock.

589
00:32:07,960 --> 00:32:11,560
Speaker 1: So it's complete reverse of what we've ever experienced. So

590
00:32:11,600 --> 00:32:14,840
Speaker 1: you've seen a positive demand shock when labor supply got hit,

591
00:32:15,800 --> 00:32:18,200
Speaker 1: and now you've seen a situation where you still have

592
00:32:18,280 --> 00:32:22,080
Speaker 1: high job openings and the service sector, which comes up

593
00:32:22,080 --> 00:32:25,520
Speaker 1: with eighty percent of the jobs, is still looking to hire.

594
00:32:26,280 --> 00:32:27,720
Speaker 1: So how are you going to see the unemployment reygo

595
00:32:27,720 --> 00:32:29,640
Speaker 1: from three and a half percent to five percent in

596
00:32:29,640 --> 00:32:33,120
Speaker 1: that dynamic. Let me give you specific examples. Last year

597
00:32:33,480 --> 00:32:36,520
Speaker 1: bad year for single family housing overall, you know, conditions

598
00:32:36,520 --> 00:32:40,000
Speaker 1: were pretty poor for housing. Construction employment last year was

599
00:32:40,000 --> 00:32:43,120
Speaker 1: a record. There's still a shortage of construction workers. Job

600
00:32:43,160 --> 00:32:45,760
Speaker 1: openings in the construction industry today are twice what they

601
00:32:45,760 --> 00:32:49,160
Speaker 1: were doing the mid two thousands boom. If you think

602
00:32:49,200 --> 00:32:52,200
Speaker 1: about construction specifically, since the construction activity peaked in mid

603
00:32:52,200 --> 00:32:56,480
Speaker 1: two thousand and six, it took eighteen months for unemployment

604
00:32:56,480 --> 00:32:59,840
Speaker 1: in the construction industry to go up. Today, the order

605
00:33:00,080 --> 00:33:03,120
Speaker 1: clo is bigger, it's gonna take more time. The labor

606
00:33:03,120 --> 00:33:06,560
Speaker 1: shortage is worse because you've got early retirements and lower immigration,

607
00:33:07,160 --> 00:33:09,600
Speaker 1: and so I would argue you can see the economy weaken,

608
00:33:09,720 --> 00:33:13,080
Speaker 1: even the hazard market weaken, without an increase in joblessness

609
00:33:13,760 --> 00:33:16,040
Speaker 1: across the board. The only sector of the economy that

610
00:33:16,120 --> 00:33:19,720
Speaker 1: overhired was tech, right, and that's where you're seeing layoffs.

611
00:33:19,720 --> 00:33:23,160
Speaker 1: But if the construction unemployment doesn't pick up for the

612
00:33:23,160 --> 00:33:25,600
Speaker 1: reasons that I've outlined, you've got auto demand that remains

613
00:33:25,680 --> 00:33:28,640
Speaker 1: robust they're not letting go of people. Manufacturing seems to

614
00:33:28,680 --> 00:33:31,280
Speaker 1: be bottoming with ism where it is right now. So

615
00:33:31,320 --> 00:33:33,440
Speaker 1: who's actually going to let go of workers here?

616
00:33:34,120 --> 00:33:37,080
Speaker 2: Nobody? So let's talk about some of the factors that

617
00:33:37,640 --> 00:33:43,120
Speaker 2: are driving that labor scarcity. You mentioned immigration. Legal immigration

618
00:33:43,400 --> 00:33:48,920
Speaker 2: has been trending lower since the Gulf War. In two

619
00:33:49,000 --> 00:33:52,600
Speaker 2: thousand and three, we change the rules as to who

620
00:33:52,600 --> 00:33:55,280
Speaker 2: could stay in the country following coming here for college.

621
00:33:55,680 --> 00:34:01,120
Speaker 2: We basically eliminated a lot of the most capable, most

622
00:34:01,160 --> 00:34:07,880
Speaker 2: qualified immigrants. That's twenty years in the making. You mentioned COVID,

623
00:34:08,640 --> 00:34:12,160
Speaker 2: A lot of people still suffering from long COVID disability

624
00:34:12,239 --> 00:34:15,640
Speaker 2: has been on and upward trends for twenty years. And

625
00:34:15,760 --> 00:34:20,520
Speaker 2: on the mail side of the labor force participation rate

626
00:34:20,600 --> 00:34:24,920
Speaker 2: that's been trending down for decades. Also, why would anyone

627
00:34:24,960 --> 00:34:28,759
Speaker 2: imagine we're going to have access labor supply anytime soon

628
00:34:28,800 --> 00:34:30,000
Speaker 2: in the United States?

629
00:34:30,440 --> 00:34:32,759
Speaker 1: So I think you're seeing improving immigration trends, not just

630
00:34:32,800 --> 00:34:34,239
Speaker 1: in the US, with globally, and I think that's a

631
00:34:34,239 --> 00:34:36,279
Speaker 1: structural team that we should pay more attention.

632
00:34:36,000 --> 00:34:38,799
Speaker 2: To improving immigration trends. Does that mean we're going to

633
00:34:38,800 --> 00:34:42,800
Speaker 2: see more legal immigrants in the United States by substantial numbers.

634
00:34:43,520 --> 00:34:45,400
Speaker 1: I mean, it's very difficult to quantify, but I think

635
00:34:45,440 --> 00:34:48,360
Speaker 1: it's a trend, a structural trend globally, not just in

636
00:34:48,400 --> 00:34:51,879
Speaker 1: the US. Like even countries that are not historically very

637
00:34:51,880 --> 00:34:54,680
Speaker 1: friendly to immigration realized for a demographic standpoint, they need

638
00:34:54,680 --> 00:34:56,480
Speaker 1: to open up, and so we're going to see that.

639
00:34:56,600 --> 00:34:58,759
Speaker 1: So again, for me, it's like on the margin, what

640
00:34:58,760 --> 00:35:01,440
Speaker 1: can happen in the future that well, positively surprise and

641
00:35:01,560 --> 00:35:04,279
Speaker 1: negatively surprised. But I think in a world right now

642
00:35:04,320 --> 00:35:06,680
Speaker 1: where everybody's asking it's so easy to think about what's

643
00:35:06,680 --> 00:35:09,080
Speaker 1: wrong with the world, Barry, it's more difficult to think

644
00:35:09,080 --> 00:35:12,160
Speaker 1: about what's right with the world. And usually when you

645
00:35:12,160 --> 00:35:14,000
Speaker 1: ask that question, people shift in their seats because they're

646
00:35:14,000 --> 00:35:15,520
Speaker 1: not used to think about what's right with the world.

647
00:35:15,560 --> 00:35:18,239
Speaker 1: It's more difficult to point out oftentimes. But I think

648
00:35:18,280 --> 00:35:20,080
Speaker 1: immigration is one of those trends that's what's right with

649
00:35:20,120 --> 00:35:21,799
Speaker 1: the world. Because if you look at just working as

650
00:35:21,800 --> 00:35:23,719
Speaker 1: population growth in the US can be sixty basis points

651
00:35:23,719 --> 00:35:26,960
Speaker 1: this year, this decade, But the real upside is that

652
00:35:27,040 --> 00:35:30,120
Speaker 1: it come from productivity. And and so I say, I

653
00:35:30,120 --> 00:35:34,040
Speaker 1: still think immigration is at a sort of do some

654
00:35:35,000 --> 00:35:38,200
Speaker 1: improve from here, I should say, going forward on the

655
00:35:38,239 --> 00:35:42,760
Speaker 1: on the labor side, and then we still have record

656
00:35:42,760 --> 00:35:45,719
Speaker 1: employment in the US, right, Like you know, we've had

657
00:35:45,760 --> 00:35:49,919
Speaker 1: the primates participation rate recover, were suddenly realizing that early

658
00:35:50,000 --> 00:35:52,839
Speaker 1: retirements wasn't a thing, and you know, people are coming

659
00:35:52,880 --> 00:35:56,720
Speaker 1: back to the labor before. So it's very difficult given this,

660
00:35:56,760 --> 00:35:58,480
Speaker 1: which is why I'm saying I think we can actually

661
00:35:58,480 --> 00:36:01,680
Speaker 1: have a secular tightness in the labor market. The concern

662
00:36:02,320 --> 00:36:07,919
Speaker 1: amongst investors is that they fear stackflation, and I don't

663
00:36:07,960 --> 00:36:11,720
Speaker 1: see a future that's stackflationary. A stackflationary future would destroy

664
00:36:11,760 --> 00:36:14,520
Speaker 1: your fixed income and equity portfolios. Right. The future that

665
00:36:14,560 --> 00:36:18,759
Speaker 1: I'm seeing is one of productivity lead growth, and this

666
00:36:18,800 --> 00:36:21,800
Speaker 1: is the look back period. That's important because when you

667
00:36:21,840 --> 00:36:23,839
Speaker 1: think about dead ceiling, you think about two hundred and eleven.

668
00:36:24,080 --> 00:36:27,200
Speaker 1: When you think about the regional banking crisis, you THINKBO

669
00:36:27,239 --> 00:36:29,719
Speaker 1: two hundred eight, you think about inflation thing about seventies,

670
00:36:30,160 --> 00:36:34,080
Speaker 1: So we don't have memory of anything that remotely, you know,

671
00:36:34,160 --> 00:36:36,800
Speaker 1: resembles a productivity lead growth era. But that was the

672
00:36:36,840 --> 00:36:39,440
Speaker 1: nineteen fifties, So you could have secular tightness in the

673
00:36:39,520 --> 00:36:41,719
Speaker 1: labor market. The AI boom is coming at the right

674
00:36:41,719 --> 00:36:46,359
Speaker 1: time where you can see wages profits rising simultaneously, where

675
00:36:46,360 --> 00:36:49,359
Speaker 1: inflation is relatively contained. Because even if wages that were

676
00:36:49,360 --> 00:36:51,360
Speaker 1: growing at four four and a half percent, if activity

677
00:36:51,440 --> 00:36:54,439
Speaker 1: grows at two percent, your overall infiction pictures not that bad.

678
00:36:54,440 --> 00:36:56,960
Speaker 1: You know, labor costs aren't going to crush your margins.

679
00:36:57,160 --> 00:37:00,959
Speaker 1: So I think the real, you know, possibility is one

680
00:37:01,120 --> 00:37:04,320
Speaker 1: that the future is not stackflinationary, but one of productivity

681
00:37:04,360 --> 00:37:07,640
Speaker 1: lead growth, which is extremely bullish for nominal growth in equities.

682
00:37:08,239 --> 00:37:12,080
Speaker 2: Huh, really quite fascinating. So let's talk a little bit

683
00:37:12,600 --> 00:37:17,320
Speaker 2: about some of the other ways you find interesting ideas

684
00:37:17,360 --> 00:37:20,600
Speaker 2: and get a sense of what's going on in the

685
00:37:20,680 --> 00:37:24,760
Speaker 2: here and now. Tell us a little bit about the

686
00:37:24,800 --> 00:37:27,279
Speaker 2: one on ones you have and the dinner salons you

687
00:37:27,320 --> 00:37:29,359
Speaker 2: have and what comes from those.

688
00:37:29,920 --> 00:37:32,920
Speaker 1: So we do about ten dinners a year in different cities,

689
00:37:32,960 --> 00:37:35,600
Speaker 1: and I travel according to what's happening in the world.

690
00:37:35,640 --> 00:37:37,920
Speaker 1: So that's more timely and interesting from a conversational standpoint

691
00:37:37,960 --> 00:37:41,120
Speaker 1: and benefits the whole community. Tongue in cheek, I call

692
00:37:41,200 --> 00:37:44,239
Speaker 1: these dinners the most interesting dinner in the world. So

693
00:37:44,280 --> 00:37:48,040
Speaker 1: I really set expectations very high. I found the best

694
00:37:48,239 --> 00:37:51,719
Speaker 1: gathering at about ten people. Everybody's requested to bring a

695
00:37:51,800 --> 00:37:54,200
Speaker 1: chart to discuss. It could be a chart, a chart,

696
00:37:54,880 --> 00:37:59,000
Speaker 1: it could be a stock It could be something that

697
00:37:59,680 --> 00:38:02,400
Speaker 1: they are interested in and they'd like to share with

698
00:38:02,400 --> 00:38:03,680
Speaker 1: the group. It could be a picture of your dog.

699
00:38:03,960 --> 00:38:05,720
Speaker 1: I really don't care, but you have to become prepared.

700
00:38:06,280 --> 00:38:08,840
Speaker 1: I feel like when people are thoughtful about what they

701
00:38:08,880 --> 00:38:11,759
Speaker 1: want to come and share, it's more interesting than just

702
00:38:11,960 --> 00:38:17,279
Speaker 1: rambling conversation. I make it. Make sure that we've got

703
00:38:17,320 --> 00:38:21,600
Speaker 1: certain rules, no egos, no business cards, no, you know,

704
00:38:21,800 --> 00:38:24,120
Speaker 1: try to really set the tone.

705
00:38:23,960 --> 00:38:27,480
Speaker 2: And that really limits who can participate. You've cut it,

706
00:38:27,719 --> 00:38:29,600
Speaker 2: You've cut it down radically.

707
00:38:29,400 --> 00:38:33,120
Speaker 1: You know, So really be very intimate and it's not

708
00:38:33,280 --> 00:38:36,920
Speaker 1: me pitching something. I'm more curious and just facilitating conversation,

709
00:38:37,040 --> 00:38:39,400
Speaker 1: learning from everybody. And the last rule is no one

710
00:38:39,440 --> 00:38:42,360
Speaker 1: leaves without a hug, you know. So it's ten people,

711
00:38:42,480 --> 00:38:47,040
Speaker 1: usually CIOs, portfolio managers from different sort of hedge funds,

712
00:38:47,040 --> 00:38:50,719
Speaker 1: long olyfunds, family offices, you know, pension CIOs. So it

713
00:38:50,719 --> 00:38:53,480
Speaker 1: really varies again based on what I think is topical

714
00:38:53,520 --> 00:38:57,759
Speaker 1: and interesting, you know. So we do those eighty ten

715
00:38:57,800 --> 00:39:00,480
Speaker 1: times a year and then we'll do bread first, which

716
00:39:00,520 --> 00:39:02,640
Speaker 1: are more easier to organize, and I tongue in cheek,

717
00:39:02,640 --> 00:39:07,200
Speaker 1: I call them the breakfast, the moderately interesting breakfast, because

718
00:39:07,200 --> 00:39:09,839
Speaker 1: again it's early in the morning, you haven't had your

719
00:39:09,840 --> 00:39:14,080
Speaker 1: coffee black sleep, so just moderately interesting ideas are enough

720
00:39:14,480 --> 00:39:16,600
Speaker 1: to share with each other.

721
00:39:16,960 --> 00:39:21,040
Speaker 2: Huh, that's interesting. I'll tell you the two. So we've

722
00:39:21,040 --> 00:39:24,359
Speaker 2: been hosting these dinner salons for the past, going back

723
00:39:24,400 --> 00:39:27,879
Speaker 2: to the financial crisis, and the two interesting things I've

724
00:39:27,960 --> 00:39:30,480
Speaker 2: kind of learned. The first is it's a little bit

725
00:39:30,640 --> 00:39:33,520
Speaker 2: like you're right about the size eight to ten is

726
00:39:33,560 --> 00:39:36,800
Speaker 2: as big as you get as you want, and even

727
00:39:36,920 --> 00:39:40,319
Speaker 2: there you still end up with these side conversations, and

728
00:39:40,360 --> 00:39:43,680
Speaker 2: you want everybody talking about the same subject in the

729
00:39:43,719 --> 00:39:47,239
Speaker 2: middle of the table, not three groups of two, three, four.

730
00:39:47,680 --> 00:39:50,160
Speaker 1: So I have a rule, no side conversations.

731
00:39:49,760 --> 00:39:53,919
Speaker 2: No side We have the same rule. And then we

732
00:39:54,000 --> 00:39:56,600
Speaker 2: did something I don't remember when this was. It was

733
00:39:56,640 --> 00:39:59,440
Speaker 2: a couple of years ago, and I try and remember

734
00:39:59,480 --> 00:40:03,319
Speaker 2: to do it every dinner, but it's really fascinating. At

735
00:40:03,320 --> 00:40:06,560
Speaker 2: the end of the dinner, I want everybody to recommend

736
00:40:06,600 --> 00:40:08,960
Speaker 2: the most interesting book they've read over the past year,

737
00:40:09,520 --> 00:40:15,440
Speaker 2: and you get some fantastic, eclectic, wildly unexpected book recommendations

738
00:40:15,440 --> 00:40:18,560
Speaker 2: from people, because I think that's all people want is

739
00:40:19,120 --> 00:40:21,480
Speaker 2: give me a really interesting book to read, and I'm

740
00:40:21,520 --> 00:40:25,080
Speaker 2: happy for thirty forty hours. You've just made me happy

741
00:40:25,080 --> 00:40:29,080
Speaker 2: with that. So you hold these You mentioned after the

742
00:40:29,440 --> 00:40:34,080
Speaker 2: China first quarter you did something in Singapore. If there's

743
00:40:34,120 --> 00:40:36,040
Speaker 2: a big FED meeting coming up, do you do that

744
00:40:36,120 --> 00:40:37,719
Speaker 2: in DC? Do you do that in New York? Where

745
00:40:37,719 --> 00:40:38,839
Speaker 2: would you hold something like that?

746
00:40:39,360 --> 00:40:41,120
Speaker 1: I found New York is the best place for like

747
00:40:41,280 --> 00:40:42,839
Speaker 1: FED centric conversations.

748
00:40:43,280 --> 00:40:43,919
Speaker 2: Why is that?

749
00:40:44,280 --> 00:40:45,759
Speaker 1: I don't know, It's just part of the culture. You know.

750
00:40:45,760 --> 00:40:48,359
Speaker 1: The macro guys are very obsessed with They're all here, yeah,

751
00:40:48,680 --> 00:40:50,920
Speaker 1: the one. They're all here also pay right close attention

752
00:40:50,960 --> 00:40:52,400
Speaker 1: to what the FED is saying, what the FED is doing,

753
00:40:52,600 --> 00:40:54,680
Speaker 1: your rates and effects matter, you know, matters a lot.

754
00:40:55,239 --> 00:40:57,640
Speaker 1: And so every city actually has its own interesting like

755
00:40:57,680 --> 00:41:01,160
Speaker 1: Hong Kong Dinners, we write China centric poor is very

756
00:41:02,080 --> 00:41:04,400
Speaker 1: pure macro because you've got a good Asian pulse, but

757
00:41:04,440 --> 00:41:07,320
Speaker 1: you also have some funds there that are really plugged

758
00:41:07,320 --> 00:41:10,000
Speaker 1: into what's happening in the US and Europe and the

759
00:41:10,080 --> 00:41:12,480
Speaker 1: europe The London Dinners will be a mixture, you know,

760
00:41:13,320 --> 00:41:16,520
Speaker 1: still annoyed with Brexit and EU policy and other sort

761
00:41:16,520 --> 00:41:17,879
Speaker 1: of interesting themes come up from there.

762
00:41:17,960 --> 00:41:21,640
Speaker 2: Well, unforced eras get everybody upset, right, It's just why

763
00:41:21,719 --> 00:41:23,960
Speaker 2: did you do that? That was silly? Let me ask

764
00:41:24,000 --> 00:41:26,840
Speaker 2: you about Singapore on my list of places to go

765
00:41:27,000 --> 00:41:31,280
Speaker 2: never been. I have been told from a wide variety

766
00:41:31,280 --> 00:41:35,560
Speaker 2: of people that it is absolutely the best food destination

767
00:41:35,840 --> 00:41:36,360
Speaker 2: in Asia.

768
00:41:37,320 --> 00:41:39,080
Speaker 1: I'm not a foodie, so I can't say if it's

769
00:41:39,080 --> 00:41:41,319
Speaker 1: the best food destination. It's certainly a city that I love.

770
00:41:41,560 --> 00:41:44,359
Speaker 1: Mm hm. Just it's such a especially from a macro

771
00:41:44,400 --> 00:41:49,279
Speaker 1: community standpoint, like you've got everybody there walking distance. It's

772
00:41:49,320 --> 00:41:52,200
Speaker 1: just fun. And I think what I've learned from my

773
00:41:52,280 --> 00:41:56,640
Speaker 1: Singapore conversations again because it's East and west good mixture

774
00:41:57,200 --> 00:41:59,880
Speaker 1: is probably some of the best conversations I've had in

775
00:42:00,719 --> 00:42:02,120
Speaker 1: around the world in Singapore.

776
00:42:02,320 --> 00:42:06,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, what where else besides London? Do you do you

777
00:42:06,239 --> 00:42:07,760
Speaker 2: like to host these in Europe?

778
00:42:08,920 --> 00:42:10,200
Speaker 1: Uh? Just London so far?

779
00:42:10,400 --> 00:42:10,600
Speaker 2: Really?

780
00:42:10,680 --> 00:42:14,279
Speaker 1: Yeah? I mean, so it's London, New York, Miami, Hong Kong, Singapore.

781
00:42:15,480 --> 00:42:17,760
Speaker 2: What do you think in Miami? A city I'm always

782
00:42:17,800 --> 00:42:21,120
Speaker 2: I'm always every time I go to Miami. I want

783
00:42:21,120 --> 00:42:24,960
Speaker 2: to like it, and Miami always manages to disappoint me somehow,

784
00:42:24,960 --> 00:42:30,960
Speaker 2: including Michelin star rated restaurants that won't serve decaf after dinner.

785
00:42:31,760 --> 00:42:33,759
Speaker 1: I'm not that opinionated, you know. I mean, I don't,

786
00:42:33,920 --> 00:42:36,080
Speaker 1: I don't. I mean I don't have a strong judgment

787
00:42:36,120 --> 00:42:39,759
Speaker 1: on cities and people and and so I go and

788
00:42:39,840 --> 00:42:42,040
Speaker 1: usually again I've got I've got young children, so I'm

789
00:42:42,080 --> 00:42:46,319
Speaker 1: usually going for like a day, three days, aldays, you know.

790
00:42:46,440 --> 00:42:49,400
Speaker 1: So I'm just going, you know, meeting clients who are

791
00:42:49,400 --> 00:42:52,480
Speaker 1: also friends and doing the dinner and coming back. So

792
00:42:52,480 --> 00:42:55,800
Speaker 1: I'm not usually spending a lot of time in Miami

793
00:42:55,960 --> 00:42:59,120
Speaker 1: checking out the city, the food scene. I love windwind Walls.

794
00:42:59,160 --> 00:43:01,400
Speaker 1: One of my favorite people is in Miami, Peter Tunney,

795
00:43:01,760 --> 00:43:03,880
Speaker 1: We'll have to spend time with. So I feel like

796
00:43:03,880 --> 00:43:07,040
Speaker 1: in every city, I've got someone deep that I connect

797
00:43:07,120 --> 00:43:09,759
Speaker 1: with or something about that place I say that I'm

798
00:43:09,840 --> 00:43:13,280
Speaker 1: dying to visit and hosted dinner is actually Boston. Because

799
00:43:13,320 --> 00:43:16,920
Speaker 1: of my love for Ralph wald Emerson, I haven't visited it.

800
00:43:16,920 --> 00:43:18,560
Speaker 1: I just want to go and be a tribute to

801
00:43:18,600 --> 00:43:21,359
Speaker 1: him and Colegia Brown actually as well. Who's Boston? Who

802
00:43:21,400 --> 00:43:22,520
Speaker 1: was living in Boston for very long.

803
00:43:22,680 --> 00:43:25,520
Speaker 2: I was gonna recommend some restaurants in Boston.

804
00:43:25,160 --> 00:43:27,719
Speaker 1: But they must have a round table. That's the other rule.

805
00:43:27,920 --> 00:43:31,040
Speaker 1: I only do roundtables in a private room.

806
00:43:31,440 --> 00:43:34,680
Speaker 2: Well, the private room, otherwise you can't hear. But there

807
00:43:34,680 --> 00:43:36,920
Speaker 2: are a lot of places where you end up with

808
00:43:37,040 --> 00:43:41,080
Speaker 2: a rectangle. But it's hard. It's hard, right that lends

809
00:43:41,120 --> 00:43:42,279
Speaker 2: itself to those side coms.

810
00:43:42,360 --> 00:43:42,760
Speaker 1: Exactly.

811
00:43:43,320 --> 00:43:49,880
Speaker 2: So, without revealing any confidences, and I'm assuming everything is,

812
00:43:51,360 --> 00:43:54,520
Speaker 2: you know, off the record private, you're not repeating the

813
00:43:54,640 --> 00:43:57,000
Speaker 2: last salon you held. Tell us about some of the

814
00:43:57,000 --> 00:44:00,560
Speaker 2: conversations that took place. Who said what, and I mean

815
00:44:00,719 --> 00:44:04,360
Speaker 2: this economist, this PM without naming names, what sort of

816
00:44:04,360 --> 00:44:05,120
Speaker 2: topics came up.

817
00:44:05,160 --> 00:44:07,560
Speaker 1: I'll tell you what surprised me because the last dinner

818
00:44:07,600 --> 00:44:13,239
Speaker 1: we did was in Singapore, and I was surprised at

819
00:44:13,480 --> 00:44:19,240
Speaker 1: the man of conversation time spent discussing the EU's economy

820
00:44:19,600 --> 00:44:22,640
Speaker 1: and the consensus about a recession.

821
00:44:22,480 --> 00:44:24,399
Speaker 2: Which has been going on for eighteen months now.

822
00:44:24,440 --> 00:44:26,680
Speaker 1: Not something that I would expect in Singapore. Oh really,

823
00:44:26,760 --> 00:44:30,440
Speaker 1: you know so it almost felt as though news here

824
00:44:31,040 --> 00:44:35,640
Speaker 1: was infecting there in terms of the fact that it's

825
00:44:35,880 --> 00:44:41,240
Speaker 1: inevitable or it's ever present. It's almost like a foregone conclusion, right,

826
00:44:41,360 --> 00:44:44,280
Speaker 1: So that was something that was unexpected. But again because

827
00:44:45,520 --> 00:44:47,359
Speaker 1: those views are also coming from people that I love

828
00:44:47,400 --> 00:44:50,760
Speaker 1: and respect, and so that makes me think twice about

829
00:44:50,760 --> 00:44:52,839
Speaker 1: my view and makes me go back and do more

830
00:44:52,880 --> 00:44:55,120
Speaker 1: work on what am I missing and what are they

831
00:44:55,200 --> 00:44:59,840
Speaker 1: getting right? And so's a So that was my lesson.

832
00:44:59,880 --> 00:45:03,040
Speaker 1: It force me to thing deeper and I've come back looking,

833
00:45:03,239 --> 00:45:05,399
Speaker 1: you know, so focus on My focus on the labor

834
00:45:05,400 --> 00:45:07,600
Speaker 1: market was party as a function of mute ending that

835
00:45:07,640 --> 00:45:10,680
Speaker 1: dinner and hearing that from the community to make sure

836
00:45:10,680 --> 00:45:12,319
Speaker 1: that what am I missing on the labor market? You know,

837
00:45:12,440 --> 00:45:14,520
Speaker 1: how can I get more robust in my analysis the

838
00:45:14,600 --> 00:45:17,439
Speaker 1: labor market? And I've come away thinking that actually, yeah,

839
00:45:17,640 --> 00:45:19,920
Speaker 1: you know, I still stand by my view that the

840
00:45:19,960 --> 00:45:25,040
Speaker 1: liber market will remain diet, secular, fashion, one crack the

841
00:45:25,120 --> 00:45:27,719
Speaker 1: way people expect. And now it's you know, my job

842
00:45:27,760 --> 00:45:29,799
Speaker 1: to share that with the community and get feedback. And

843
00:45:29,880 --> 00:45:32,120
Speaker 1: so that's kind of how the process works, the research

844
00:45:32,239 --> 00:45:33,880
Speaker 1: idea discovery flywheel works.

845
00:45:34,280 --> 00:45:36,719
Speaker 2: So you mentioned something earlier I want to circle back

846
00:45:36,760 --> 00:45:41,720
Speaker 2: to talking about the expectation of recession, and you said

847
00:45:42,320 --> 00:45:45,920
Speaker 2: that there is a tendency for people to ignore good

848
00:45:45,960 --> 00:45:49,279
Speaker 2: news and focus on bad news. Let me throw this

849
00:45:49,360 --> 00:45:55,480
Speaker 2: out there. From an evolutionary perspective, isn't threats and security

850
00:45:55,600 --> 00:46:00,719
Speaker 2: risks and bad news an existential risk versus is good news?

851
00:46:00,800 --> 00:46:02,600
Speaker 2: Is just hey, we're all doing a little better.

852
00:46:03,280 --> 00:46:08,080
Speaker 1: From a spiritual perspective, right, I would say, I'm I'm

853
00:46:08,160 --> 00:46:12,520
Speaker 1: born to be grateful, Okay, so I always see the

854
00:46:12,560 --> 00:46:13,760
Speaker 1: bright side of things.

855
00:46:14,200 --> 00:46:18,440
Speaker 2: I'm with you. I'm a glass half full guy. Also

856
00:46:18,800 --> 00:46:21,759
Speaker 2: mathematically half of zero zero, so there's no such thing

857
00:46:21,800 --> 00:46:26,760
Speaker 2: as a half empty glass. But you know, the Morgan

858
00:46:26,800 --> 00:46:30,560
Speaker 2: Housel wrote this really interesting piece that said, following the

859
00:46:30,600 --> 00:46:33,560
Speaker 2: first flight of Kitty Hawk, it took newspapers twenty years

860
00:46:34,040 --> 00:46:38,120
Speaker 2: to start talking about flight, but the first instant there's

861
00:46:38,200 --> 00:46:45,560
Speaker 2: any sort of trouble, it's headline news. My curiosity is,

862
00:46:46,120 --> 00:46:52,520
Speaker 2: how Darwinian is this? How much of your spirituality is

863
00:46:52,560 --> 00:46:58,800
Speaker 2: not the traditional state of human psyche? We are seem

864
00:46:59,040 --> 00:47:04,400
Speaker 2: like we were built to over anticipate threats.

865
00:47:04,840 --> 00:47:08,160
Speaker 1: Perhaps my philosophy or not is simply the more we

866
00:47:08,200 --> 00:47:12,040
Speaker 1: look at others, the more neglectful we've become looking at ourselves.

867
00:47:12,239 --> 00:47:15,160
Speaker 2: So let's talk about that, because some of some of

868
00:47:15,200 --> 00:47:19,560
Speaker 2: your thoughts on knowing yourself? How could you be a

869
00:47:19,560 --> 00:47:23,160
Speaker 2: good investor if you don't understand yourself? Let let's let's

870
00:47:23,560 --> 00:47:26,759
Speaker 2: let's delve into that. How important is self awareness and

871
00:47:26,800 --> 00:47:30,919
Speaker 2: self enlightenment in managing capital and risk?

872
00:47:31,120 --> 00:47:33,560
Speaker 1: I don't know what enlightenment, but self awareness certainly is

873
00:47:33,600 --> 00:47:34,840
Speaker 1: I think very important.

874
00:47:34,960 --> 00:47:37,120
Speaker 2: Is there that much of a distinction? Or am I

875
00:47:37,200 --> 00:47:40,799
Speaker 2: am I using overly broad terms like I think of

876
00:47:40,840 --> 00:47:44,960
Speaker 2: self enlightenment and self awareness as part of the same spectrum.

877
00:47:44,560 --> 00:47:49,080
Speaker 1: Right, I think awareness is important? Right? What's the motivation?

878
00:47:49,280 --> 00:47:51,600
Speaker 1: Why are you in this business? Just asking a simple

879
00:47:51,680 --> 00:47:53,360
Speaker 1: questions like why do you care so much about investing?

880
00:47:53,960 --> 00:47:54,640
Speaker 2: You want to ask me?

881
00:47:55,920 --> 00:47:59,359
Speaker 1: Or just general yeah, just diving deeper into a person, right,

882
00:47:59,360 --> 00:48:01,319
Speaker 1: why do you care some aout investing? What is it

883
00:48:01,480 --> 00:48:04,440
Speaker 1: doing for you? You know? Like for example, you I think

884
00:48:04,480 --> 00:48:07,279
Speaker 1: I've read somewhere recently or I heard that you don't

885
00:48:07,280 --> 00:48:10,600
Speaker 1: know why you're drinking until you stop drinking, Okay, right,

886
00:48:10,760 --> 00:48:13,160
Speaker 1: so that's fair. You don't know why you're trading until

887
00:48:13,160 --> 00:48:15,719
Speaker 1: you stop trading. So like what is our underlying motivators?

888
00:48:15,840 --> 00:48:18,520
Speaker 1: You know? In the industry, and a lot of people

889
00:48:18,520 --> 00:48:20,920
Speaker 1: struggle with ego and identity, and you know, like, so,

890
00:48:20,920 --> 00:48:22,840
Speaker 1: what are your underlying motivators? You're just geting to know

891
00:48:22,880 --> 00:48:26,400
Speaker 1: who you are while you're doing what you're doing. You know,

892
00:48:26,400 --> 00:48:28,960
Speaker 1: how do you become more flexible in your thinking? Adaptable?

893
00:48:29,440 --> 00:48:31,120
Speaker 1: I often say the biggest risk you need to manage

894
00:48:31,160 --> 00:48:33,920
Speaker 1: is yourself. It's not a position, it's not what the

895
00:48:33,960 --> 00:48:36,600
Speaker 1: Fed is saying, it's not a political event. It's yourself

896
00:48:36,600 --> 00:48:39,719
Speaker 1: because you're going to react to a particular news story

897
00:48:39,760 --> 00:48:41,520
Speaker 1: or particular event. Right, So, the biggest risk you need

898
00:48:41,520 --> 00:48:43,359
Speaker 1: to manage yourself. So if you don't know yourself, it's

899
00:48:43,360 --> 00:48:45,200
Speaker 1: pretty it's pretty difficult.

900
00:48:45,880 --> 00:48:49,360
Speaker 2: One of the comments you had had written about was

901
00:48:49,800 --> 00:48:53,480
Speaker 2: the obsession we have with things that we can't control.

902
00:48:53,840 --> 00:48:56,319
Speaker 2: You can't control the economy, we can't control inflash, we

903
00:48:56,320 --> 00:48:58,960
Speaker 2: can't control what the FED does, we can't control what

904
00:48:59,040 --> 00:49:03,760
Speaker 2: Congress does. But to your points, you can control yourself

905
00:49:03,800 --> 00:49:07,759
Speaker 2: and your own reaction. Given that, are we spending too

906
00:49:07,800 --> 00:49:11,600
Speaker 2: much time focusing on news when we really should be

907
00:49:11,680 --> 00:49:16,400
Speaker 2: focusing more on things that are within our p number

908
00:49:16,640 --> 00:49:21,120
Speaker 2: of being able to manage, modify, and control.

909
00:49:21,880 --> 00:49:24,399
Speaker 1: Perhaps, But again it depends on what you're doing. Right.

910
00:49:24,440 --> 00:49:27,000
Speaker 1: So I certainly do that. I can't speak to other people,

911
00:49:27,239 --> 00:49:29,840
Speaker 1: but not the luxury of doing that, because that's partly

912
00:49:29,880 --> 00:49:31,919
Speaker 1: why I get to do what I do, is because

913
00:49:31,960 --> 00:49:35,120
Speaker 1: I can zoom out, I can disconnect to come back

914
00:49:35,160 --> 00:49:39,000
Speaker 1: with certain reflective, deep refreshing thoughts that will sort of

915
00:49:39,040 --> 00:49:41,879
Speaker 1: help the community, the client base in a particular way.

916
00:49:42,200 --> 00:49:46,080
Speaker 1: But obviously if you're macro PM you can't disconnect. You know,

917
00:49:46,280 --> 00:49:48,160
Speaker 1: if you're a CIO of a pension fund, You're always

918
00:49:48,160 --> 00:49:53,520
Speaker 1: thinking about your employees and your portfolio and the band sponsors.

919
00:49:53,880 --> 00:49:57,080
Speaker 1: So I have a luxury, I think, barry, to design

920
00:49:57,080 --> 00:49:59,279
Speaker 1: my life set in a particular way that gives me

921
00:49:59,320 --> 00:50:03,919
Speaker 1: an edge that I appreciate that not everybody does.

922
00:50:04,719 --> 00:50:06,920
Speaker 2: All right, So let me throw you a curveball question.

923
00:50:07,440 --> 00:50:11,080
Speaker 2: I got to ask, you write all the time, why

924
00:50:11,280 --> 00:50:14,759
Speaker 2: write a book? Tell us what motivated you to turn

925
00:50:14,840 --> 00:50:18,400
Speaker 2: stray reflections into a bound, printed book.

926
00:50:19,080 --> 00:50:22,360
Speaker 1: So I didn't write the book. What actually happened was,

927
00:50:22,360 --> 00:50:25,280
Speaker 1: like I mentioned earlier, I wrote from the very beginning,

928
00:50:25,320 --> 00:50:27,279
Speaker 1: from a very personal space. So at the end of

929
00:50:27,320 --> 00:50:30,120
Speaker 1: every issue there'd be a personal reflection. It could be

930
00:50:30,200 --> 00:50:32,720
Speaker 1: my daughter being born, my grandmother dying, meeting a friend

931
00:50:32,760 --> 00:50:36,080
Speaker 1: reading a book some travel experience, so I'd always made

932
00:50:36,080 --> 00:50:39,440
Speaker 1: sure I ended on a personal note. I realized when

933
00:50:39,480 --> 00:50:41,759
Speaker 1: I started writing there was a lot of reservations, will

934
00:50:41,800 --> 00:50:44,040
Speaker 1: I have something meaningful to say on a regular basis?

935
00:50:44,800 --> 00:50:47,040
Speaker 1: And something Roomy said struck with me, and he said,

936
00:50:47,440 --> 00:50:50,279
Speaker 1: words are just a pretext. What connects one person to

937
00:50:50,280 --> 00:50:53,320
Speaker 1: another is that inner bond, not words. So I realized,

938
00:50:53,320 --> 00:50:55,239
Speaker 1: I want to write from a very personal space. I

939
00:50:55,280 --> 00:50:57,440
Speaker 1: want to write from the heart. There's too much brain intelligence,

940
00:50:57,680 --> 00:51:00,399
Speaker 1: you know, in our industry, Like, let's connect a person level.

941
00:51:01,440 --> 00:51:03,560
Speaker 1: So the book is simply a collection of all those

942
00:51:03,600 --> 00:51:07,440
Speaker 1: personal reflections that I've been writing since the beginning of

943
00:51:07,440 --> 00:51:10,839
Speaker 1: the publication. So I didn't write a book separately. It

944
00:51:10,920 --> 00:51:13,840
Speaker 1: was you know, I held this conference in twenty eighteen

945
00:51:13,920 --> 00:51:15,520
Speaker 1: in the desert, and I was trying to think of

946
00:51:15,560 --> 00:51:19,480
Speaker 1: a way to give a thoughtful gift, and this idea

947
00:51:19,520 --> 00:51:22,600
Speaker 1: came about. So we just assembled all the reflections into

948
00:51:22,600 --> 00:51:24,839
Speaker 1: a book that you can just order on Amazon. But

949
00:51:24,880 --> 00:51:26,600
Speaker 1: back then we just printed it and gifted it to

950
00:51:26,640 --> 00:51:29,279
Speaker 1: all our clients, and there's a lot of people would

951
00:51:29,280 --> 00:51:31,360
Speaker 1: ask for it, and I'm glad that it's just available

952
00:51:31,360 --> 00:51:33,080
Speaker 1: for anybody to sort of pick it up or for

953
00:51:33,120 --> 00:51:35,160
Speaker 1: me to keep gifting it. I'd much rather meet a

954
00:51:35,160 --> 00:51:37,880
Speaker 1: client and instead of giving them a presentation about housing

955
00:51:37,960 --> 00:51:39,680
Speaker 1: or this or that, just leave a copy of my

956
00:51:39,719 --> 00:51:40,359
Speaker 1: book on the desk.

957
00:51:40,680 --> 00:51:43,840
Speaker 2: Huh. Really interesting. So we only have you for a

958
00:51:43,880 --> 00:51:47,440
Speaker 2: little while longer. Let me jump to my favorite questions

959
00:51:47,440 --> 00:51:50,759
Speaker 2: that we ask all of our guests, starting with tell

960
00:51:50,840 --> 00:51:54,080
Speaker 2: us what you're paying attention to these days in terms

961
00:51:54,080 --> 00:51:56,759
Speaker 2: of entertainment? What are you listening to in terms of

962
00:51:56,800 --> 00:52:00,480
Speaker 2: podcast or are there any Netflix or Amazon shows that

963
00:52:00,560 --> 00:52:03,640
Speaker 2: have caught your attention? What's entertaining the family?

964
00:52:04,600 --> 00:52:06,840
Speaker 1: I actually don't get bored to feel the need to

965
00:52:06,840 --> 00:52:09,520
Speaker 1: be entertained, So I actually don't listen to music or

966
00:52:09,600 --> 00:52:13,279
Speaker 1: watch movies. I've got three young daughters, and I love

967
00:52:13,320 --> 00:52:14,160
Speaker 1: spending time with them.

968
00:52:14,280 --> 00:52:17,680
Speaker 2: Do they watch TV? Do they watch listen to music?

969
00:52:18,680 --> 00:52:21,959
Speaker 1: They watch cartoons? So we'll have a movie time every

970
00:52:21,960 --> 00:52:26,120
Speaker 1: weekend with them, So they'll watch some children's movie and

971
00:52:26,160 --> 00:52:27,560
Speaker 1: I'm just present with them.

972
00:52:27,719 --> 00:52:28,959
Speaker 2: You're along for the ride.

973
00:52:29,000 --> 00:52:29,680
Speaker 1: So so.

974
00:52:32,000 --> 00:52:35,920
Speaker 2: Okay, so Pixar, Disney, all the usual suspects.

975
00:52:36,400 --> 00:52:38,759
Speaker 1: But I find myself doing you know, one of my

976
00:52:38,760 --> 00:52:40,719
Speaker 1: goals last year, for example, Barry was I want to

977
00:52:40,719 --> 00:52:42,680
Speaker 1: work fewer hours and get more done. So that's when

978
00:52:42,680 --> 00:52:46,719
Speaker 1: I started cutting out distractions right again, deep work is

979
00:52:46,760 --> 00:52:49,360
Speaker 1: something that I really believe in, and so I would say,

980
00:52:49,600 --> 00:52:51,719
Speaker 1: if I have any doubt, I'm actually listening to a

981
00:52:51,760 --> 00:52:55,080
Speaker 1: book as opposed to watching a movie or listening to music.

982
00:52:55,120 --> 00:52:57,680
Speaker 1: And I'm a big audible fan. Again, with young girls,

983
00:52:57,719 --> 00:52:59,239
Speaker 1: it's more difficult to like sit and pick up a

984
00:52:59,239 --> 00:53:01,919
Speaker 1: bookcause they jumping on you. So you're driving, when you're

985
00:53:01,960 --> 00:53:04,439
Speaker 1: cleaning or just going for a walk, you can listen

986
00:53:04,480 --> 00:53:07,440
Speaker 1: to a book. And something that listened to recently was

987
00:53:08,360 --> 00:53:12,880
Speaker 1: Screw Tape Letters by C. S. Lewis read by John Cleese,

988
00:53:13,040 --> 00:53:15,960
Speaker 1: which is a masterpiece. I don't know if you're familiar

989
00:53:15,960 --> 00:53:20,240
Speaker 1: with the book, but it's basically a senior devil writing

990
00:53:20,239 --> 00:53:23,640
Speaker 1: a letter to a junior devil talking about how to

991
00:53:23,760 --> 00:53:27,520
Speaker 1: corrupt the patient, which is humans, and keep him away

992
00:53:27,520 --> 00:53:30,719
Speaker 1: from the enemy, which is God. And even though people

993
00:53:30,760 --> 00:53:32,920
Speaker 1: think that The Fourth Turning is the most important book

994
00:53:32,960 --> 00:53:34,920
Speaker 1: of our time, I would say C. S. Lewis the

995
00:53:35,040 --> 00:53:37,200
Speaker 1: Screw Tape Letters is the most important book of our time.

996
00:53:37,280 --> 00:53:40,439
Speaker 1: The letter it explains a lot with what's going on.

997
00:53:41,000 --> 00:53:43,840
Speaker 2: If you like that. Have you ever read Mark Twain's

998
00:53:44,040 --> 00:53:49,160
Speaker 2: Letters from Earth? No, it's literally that the Devil comes

999
00:53:49,160 --> 00:53:51,560
Speaker 2: to Earth and or a demon comes to Earth, and

1000
00:53:51,560 --> 00:53:56,840
Speaker 2: it's writing letters back to a devil explaining what's going

1001
00:53:56,880 --> 00:53:59,960
Speaker 2: on with the humans and why they're so hard to corrupt.

1002
00:54:00,760 --> 00:54:04,440
Speaker 2: Of course they're already corrupted. It's really quite fascinating. I

1003
00:54:04,480 --> 00:54:07,360
Speaker 2: haven't read it in a long time, but you've given me.

1004
00:54:07,560 --> 00:54:09,239
Speaker 2: We're going to circle back to books in a bit.

1005
00:54:10,040 --> 00:54:12,640
Speaker 2: Let's talk about your mentors who helped shape your career

1006
00:54:12,760 --> 00:54:14,800
Speaker 2: and turn you into the person you are today.

1007
00:54:15,360 --> 00:54:17,080
Speaker 1: In the twenties, I searched for a mentor and I

1008
00:54:17,120 --> 00:54:20,640
Speaker 1: couldn't find one, So I spent my twenties learning and dreaming.

1009
00:54:21,200 --> 00:54:23,440
Speaker 1: In the book that got me to dream was The Alchemist.

1010
00:54:23,480 --> 00:54:24,359
Speaker 1: But I only don't like.

1011
00:54:24,800 --> 00:54:28,640
Speaker 2: It's not that I don't like it, it's that the

1012
00:54:28,680 --> 00:54:32,440
Speaker 2: books that are parables that sort of rely on magic

1013
00:54:33,120 --> 00:54:36,160
Speaker 2: to reach their conclusion I find annoying.

1014
00:54:36,440 --> 00:54:38,120
Speaker 1: The concept that resonated with me in the book was

1015
00:54:38,120 --> 00:54:40,400
Speaker 1: this idea of the personal legend. So I've spent my

1016
00:54:40,400 --> 00:54:43,399
Speaker 1: twenties dreaming that I'm going to unfold my personal legends.

1017
00:54:43,400 --> 00:54:45,760
Speaker 1: So for me, the twenties were spent learning and dreaming.

1018
00:54:46,080 --> 00:54:48,040
Speaker 1: I would say when I launched Fair Affections, you know

1019
00:54:48,080 --> 00:54:50,360
Speaker 1: the first five years that I was very lucky to

1020
00:54:50,360 --> 00:54:53,520
Speaker 1: meet someone called Steve Drobney out of Santa Monica who

1021
00:54:53,600 --> 00:54:55,680
Speaker 1: runs Clocked tour group. Every time I was thought of

1022
00:54:55,760 --> 00:54:57,799
Speaker 1: quitting in the first few years because I couldn't figure

1023
00:54:57,800 --> 00:55:00,279
Speaker 1: out the business model, I wasn't making enough money, he

1024
00:55:00,320 --> 00:55:01,840
Speaker 1: was on the other side of the phone saying, just

1025
00:55:01,920 --> 00:55:04,640
Speaker 1: hang in there. You know, a path would open up.

1026
00:55:05,360 --> 00:55:07,799
Speaker 1: And I remember his words. He said, Joe, this will

1027
00:55:07,840 --> 00:55:10,239
Speaker 1: be your only job for the rest of your life.

1028
00:55:10,800 --> 00:55:15,840
Speaker 1: Be patient and wise words and I realized, you know

1029
00:55:15,840 --> 00:55:20,640
Speaker 1: what actually surviving is succeeding and the universe opened its path.

1030
00:55:20,719 --> 00:55:23,840
Speaker 1: And so he was influential and remains a very close friend.

1031
00:55:24,280 --> 00:55:26,719
Speaker 1: And I would say in the last five years, the

1032
00:55:26,760 --> 00:55:30,279
Speaker 1: most impact that I've had is from a coaching relationship.

1033
00:55:30,400 --> 00:55:32,279
Speaker 1: And I speak with my coach every week and she's

1034
00:55:32,360 --> 00:55:33,239
Speaker 1: indispensable to me.

1035
00:55:33,520 --> 00:55:37,960
Speaker 2: Huh, that's really that's really interesting. The idea that you're

1036
00:55:38,000 --> 00:55:40,319
Speaker 2: not ready for this and the universe will open up

1037
00:55:40,320 --> 00:55:45,960
Speaker 2: to you when you are is frustrating prospectively, but when

1038
00:55:46,000 --> 00:55:48,200
Speaker 2: you're looking backwards, it's like Oh that turned out to

1039
00:55:48,200 --> 00:55:51,120
Speaker 2: be pretty Uh. You hate it in the advance, but

1040
00:55:51,239 --> 00:55:55,120
Speaker 2: looking backwards, it's like, maybe it's a coincidence. But that

1041
00:55:55,239 --> 00:55:57,480
Speaker 2: seemed to come along at the exact right time, didn't it.

1042
00:55:57,800 --> 00:55:59,280
Speaker 1: Absolutely that's been my experience.

1043
00:55:59,480 --> 00:56:03,120
Speaker 2: So we've mentioned two books so far, three books, Letters

1044
00:56:03,120 --> 00:56:07,160
Speaker 2: from Earth, the Alchemist, and the C. S Lewis Book.

1045
00:56:07,560 --> 00:56:09,480
Speaker 2: Tell us some other books you're reading. What are some

1046
00:56:09,520 --> 00:56:10,640
Speaker 2: of your all time favorites.

1047
00:56:11,160 --> 00:56:15,440
Speaker 1: I love everything written by Ralph wald Emerson, C. S. Lewis,

1048
00:56:15,480 --> 00:56:18,359
Speaker 1: as well as Roomy, who I'm a big fan of.

1049
00:56:19,840 --> 00:56:24,600
Speaker 1: What I'm reading more recently is actually something John Authors recommended.

1050
00:56:24,640 --> 00:56:26,120
Speaker 1: I was having a conversation with him and I was

1051
00:56:26,160 --> 00:56:29,960
Speaker 1: asking for advice on writing and the craft, and he

1052
00:56:30,040 --> 00:56:32,840
Speaker 1: suggested that the most influential person in his life was

1053
00:56:32,880 --> 00:56:35,920
Speaker 1: Professor Readman from Columbia, and he's written a bunch of books.

1054
00:56:35,920 --> 00:56:38,120
Speaker 1: So I went and looked through his books and the

1055
00:56:38,120 --> 00:56:40,160
Speaker 1: one that really appealed to me was Letters to a

1056
00:56:40,160 --> 00:56:44,200
Speaker 1: Young Journalist. And I'm reading that and I'm fascinated because

1057
00:56:44,200 --> 00:56:47,960
Speaker 1: again I look at what I do is writing, and

1058
00:56:48,000 --> 00:56:50,440
Speaker 1: I want to read improve that craft to be, you know,

1059
00:56:50,480 --> 00:56:52,600
Speaker 1: a creative thinker, and looking at the world and observing

1060
00:56:52,600 --> 00:56:53,280
Speaker 1: things differently.

1061
00:56:53,480 --> 00:56:56,239
Speaker 2: So Roomy, give me a book of Roomy that.

1062
00:56:56,800 --> 00:57:00,520
Speaker 1: The mus Nui. The muth Nui is the the big

1063
00:57:00,560 --> 00:57:04,319
Speaker 1: sort of collection of poems that he's written, would be

1064
00:57:04,360 --> 00:57:07,560
Speaker 1: the one that Reynald Nicholson has the best translation in

1065
00:57:07,600 --> 00:57:11,880
Speaker 1: my opinion. Okay, it's anything that Reynold Nicholson has translated

1066
00:57:12,000 --> 00:57:13,440
Speaker 1: room Me would be the best, all right.

1067
00:57:13,719 --> 00:57:17,160
Speaker 2: And by the way, you know, there's only two secrets

1068
00:57:17,200 --> 00:57:20,720
Speaker 2: to good writing, right you're aware of this, no reveal.

1069
00:57:22,040 --> 00:57:25,560
Speaker 2: I'm not sharing anything that hasn't been revealed many times. First,

1070
00:57:25,880 --> 00:57:29,480
Speaker 2: read really good writing. You're already doing that. And Second,

1071
00:57:30,040 --> 00:57:34,360
Speaker 2: write regularly and relentlessly. And the more you write, the

1072
00:57:34,360 --> 00:57:37,160
Speaker 2: better you get. It's just a muscle that has to

1073
00:57:37,160 --> 00:57:40,640
Speaker 2: be exercised. I hate that metaphor, but it's true. If

1074
00:57:40,680 --> 00:57:44,400
Speaker 2: you write regularly, you'll find you just get especially if

1075
00:57:44,440 --> 00:57:47,160
Speaker 2: you have access to a decent editor. Also, you'll just

1076
00:57:47,240 --> 00:57:50,880
Speaker 2: start to get better and better and better. I've watched

1077
00:57:51,000 --> 00:57:55,360
Speaker 2: this arc with people over and over again, and every

1078
00:57:55,440 --> 00:57:57,640
Speaker 2: now and then someone will say, oh, I hate my

1079
00:57:57,720 --> 00:58:00,560
Speaker 2: early stuff, but now I'm pretty comfort was it? But

1080
00:58:00,840 --> 00:58:04,760
Speaker 2: that's the path. You have to travel, that route.

1081
00:58:04,520 --> 00:58:07,600
Speaker 1: As someone who has struggled with the imposter syndrome. I

1082
00:58:07,600 --> 00:58:11,560
Speaker 1: think what really helped me alongside was reading the book

1083
00:58:11,680 --> 00:58:14,120
Speaker 1: The War of Art by Steven Pressfield, and he talks

1084
00:58:14,160 --> 00:58:18,160
Speaker 1: about turning pro and so, you know, an amateur waits

1085
00:58:18,200 --> 00:58:20,440
Speaker 1: for inspiration and then he goes to the room and

1086
00:58:20,440 --> 00:58:23,920
Speaker 1: starts writing. The pro takes his craft seriously and shows

1087
00:58:24,000 --> 00:58:28,480
Speaker 1: up and exactly, and this, this concept of turning pro,

1088
00:58:28,880 --> 00:58:32,640
Speaker 1: I'm a professional, made a big difference, just mentally psychologically

1089
00:58:32,680 --> 00:58:36,480
Speaker 1: that you know, take it seriously. That made a huge difference.

1090
00:58:36,840 --> 00:58:40,160
Speaker 2: My buddy David Nottig and I have this ongoing debate

1091
00:58:40,760 --> 00:58:45,720
Speaker 2: about imposter syndrome, which is a problem for him, and

1092
00:58:46,000 --> 00:58:51,080
Speaker 2: I have just no understanding of it. My defense is

1093
00:58:51,080 --> 00:58:56,360
Speaker 2: that I'm oblivious. He says, I'm a sociopath and therefore,

1094
00:58:56,480 --> 00:59:02,320
Speaker 2: but I don't really feel like a sociopath. Although sociopaths

1095
00:59:02,360 --> 00:59:05,600
Speaker 2: probably don't feel like sociopaths. But I think I have

1096
00:59:05,640 --> 00:59:10,000
Speaker 2: a pretty decent defense on that. So our last two questions,

1097
00:59:10,840 --> 00:59:13,280
Speaker 2: A recent college grad came up to you and said,

1098
00:59:13,320 --> 00:59:17,240
Speaker 2: I'm thinking about a career in finance, writing a newsletter

1099
00:59:18,240 --> 00:59:23,440
Speaker 2: or a macro advisory paper for investors. What sort of advice.

1100
00:59:23,480 --> 00:59:24,240
Speaker 2: Would you give them?

1101
00:59:25,440 --> 00:59:29,160
Speaker 1: Roomy jumps to mind, and he says, let the beauty

1102
00:59:29,200 --> 00:59:31,600
Speaker 1: of what you love be what you do. There are

1103
00:59:31,640 --> 00:59:34,960
Speaker 1: a thousand ways to kneel and kiss the ground. That's

1104
00:59:35,000 --> 00:59:38,280
Speaker 1: the first thing. The other thing I'd say also comes

1105
00:59:38,320 --> 00:59:40,400
Speaker 1: from roomy, which is be with those who help your being.

1106
00:59:40,920 --> 00:59:42,240
Speaker 1: So surround yourself with good people.

1107
00:59:42,880 --> 00:59:46,640
Speaker 2: To say the very least, and our final question, what

1108
00:59:46,720 --> 00:59:51,840
Speaker 2: do you know about the world of macro analysis, investing,

1109
00:59:52,640 --> 00:59:58,000
Speaker 2: economic data, etc. Today That you wish you knew twenty

1110
00:59:58,120 --> 01:00:01,160
Speaker 2: years or so ago when you were first getting started.

1111
01:00:02,760 --> 01:00:04,280
Speaker 1: The world is not the way to tell you it is.

1112
01:00:05,720 --> 01:00:09,080
Speaker 1: That's a classic opening line from The Money Game, And

1113
01:00:09,760 --> 01:00:12,120
Speaker 1: I wish I knew that the world is not the

1114
01:00:12,120 --> 01:00:13,000
Speaker 1: way they tell you it is.

1115
01:00:14,200 --> 01:00:18,200
Speaker 2: Adam Smith The Money Game another classic book that is

1116
01:00:18,320 --> 01:00:21,680
Speaker 2: absolutely worth worth reading. Jawad, thank you so much for

1117
01:00:21,760 --> 01:00:26,000
Speaker 2: being so generous with your time. This was absolutely fascinating.

1118
01:00:26,440 --> 01:00:30,280
Speaker 2: We have been speaking with Joadman. He is the editor

1119
01:00:30,360 --> 01:00:36,200
Speaker 2: and publisher of Stray Reflections, a macro advisory research commentary.

1120
01:00:37,040 --> 01:00:38,920
Speaker 2: I would be remiss if I did not thank the

1121
01:00:38,960 --> 01:00:42,640
Speaker 2: crack team that helps put these conversations together each week.

1122
01:00:43,040 --> 01:00:47,400
Speaker 2: Paris Wald is my producer. Sean Russo is my researcher.

1123
01:00:48,000 --> 01:00:51,240
Speaker 2: Rob Bragg is my audio engineer. Attika v Albron is

1124
01:00:51,280 --> 01:00:55,960
Speaker 2: our project manager. I'm Barry Ritoltz. You've been listening to

1125
01:00:56,080 --> 01:01:02,760
Speaker 2: Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio.