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Speaker 1: Hi, this is newt twenty twenty is going to be

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Speaker 1: First Well this episode of Newsworld. I recently wrote a

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Speaker 1: cover story for Newsweek about China, entitled What I and

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Speaker 1: everyone else got wrong about China and Why we need

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Speaker 1: to fix it Now. I wrote the article because I'm

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Speaker 1: in the process of writing a book about China, and

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Speaker 1: I'm deep into the research and writing phase. As I've

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Speaker 1: been researching the past and the present. I realized how

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Speaker 1: remarkably I got China wrong. Like many Western scholars and policymakers,

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Speaker 1: I bought into this idea that open global markets and

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Speaker 1: information sharing would bring China out of its communists to

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Speaker 1: toutitarian past and into some kind of democratic or at

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Speaker 1: least open future. I don't think I could have gotten

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Speaker 1: it more wrong. China has always had its own agenda,

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Speaker 1: and that was, and very much still is, China first,

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Speaker 1: China at the center of the world, China above all

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Speaker 1: other interests. What I've learned is how concerted they are

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Speaker 1: in their efforts to undermine the United States and other

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Speaker 1: democratic Western countries with a very general direction for global domination,

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Speaker 1: both technologically and economically. And in that context, I think

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Speaker 1: we can better understand the tariff war we are facing now.

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Speaker 1: My guest is doctor Jonathan Ward, next generation National security

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Speaker 1: fellow at Center for a New American Security and author

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Speaker 1: of China's vision of victory. You know, it's become more

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Speaker 1: and more obvious there are strategies for dealing with China

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Speaker 1: have not worked and will not work. For years, we

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Speaker 1: watch America's manufacturing sector gradually migrate towards Asia. Right now,

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Speaker 1: we're watching China, through the giant telecom company Hahwei, work

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Speaker 1: to dominate the entire worldwide deployment of five G technology.

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Speaker 1: Pretty soon, we could be operating a world in which

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Speaker 1: the Internet as we know it is maintained and controlled

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Speaker 1: by its atolitary and communist country, a dramatic change from

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Speaker 1: the American based, open and free Internet that we're used to.

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Speaker 1: I think our strategies are failing because they're not based

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Speaker 1: on reality. They're based on two key myths. Decades ago,

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Speaker 1: we and I include myself in this, sold ourselves a

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Speaker 1: fantasy version of China. The real China is a lot

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Speaker 1: more formidable and dangerous than we wanted to believe, or frankly,

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Speaker 1: than we want to believe right now. Part of our misreading,

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Speaker 1: I think, was based on our own arrogance and our

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Speaker 1: own wishful thinking, in part on a deliberate Chinese strategy

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Speaker 1: of deception, a policy of showing us a face that

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Speaker 1: looked pleasant, reasonable, and non threatening. My favorite example is

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Speaker 1: in nineteen seventy nine, Dong Chalupegho, at that time was

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Speaker 1: the dominant political figure in China, comes to the US.

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Speaker 1: He's a very short person, doesn't look personally very aggressive,

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Speaker 1: or very much like somebody who's going to dominate you.

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Speaker 1: He goes to a rodeo in Texas and he puts

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Speaker 1: on a cowboy head. He looks so friendly, so interesting,

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Speaker 1: and willing to be like Americans. I think that picture

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Speaker 1: softened his image across the entire West, and it basically

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Speaker 1: muted warnings by dozens of scholars and intelligent analysts about

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Speaker 1: his real intentions. People kind of looked at and said, oh,

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Speaker 1: he can't be a real threat. It helped obscure the

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Speaker 1: fact he spent a year studying Leninism in Moscow. Well,

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Speaker 1: he was a genuine Leninist, a person who believes in

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Speaker 1: a centralized dictatorship, and he devoted his entire lifetime to create, implement,

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Speaker 1: and then govern that dictatorship. So we looked at him

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Speaker 1: and thought, oh, he's okay. Well he was okay for

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Speaker 1: a guy who wants a total dictatorship. As for our

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Speaker 1: own hubris, our own sense of how big we were,

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Speaker 1: how powerful we were, I think the collapse of the

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Speaker 1: Soviet Union led us to a great overstatement. We had

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Speaker 1: helped win World War One, we had won World War Two,

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Speaker 1: we had won the Cold War, and so some American

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Speaker 1: politicians and some scholars started talking about a new world order,

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Speaker 1: that everything was going to resemble the American model. And

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Speaker 1: in that context, we looked at China. We thought, well,

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Speaker 1: you know, they're immature, they're economically underdeveloped. Inevitably, they're gonna

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Speaker 1: have to learn to be like us, because after all,

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Speaker 1: that's how they'll ultimately be successful. We thought that the

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Speaker 1: world was going to become much more focused, you know.

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Speaker 1: We thought democracy was coming to the Middle East. We

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Speaker 1: thought that China would evolve into a democracy, and it

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Speaker 1: turned out that both of those were clearly overreached Historically.

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Speaker 1: Dung in nineteen ninety two goes to South China and

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Speaker 1: what's called the Southern Tour, and he is a series

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Speaker 1: of speeches that are decisive in the development of modern China.

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Speaker 1: He basically says, we have to become prosperous or the

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Speaker 1: Chinese people are going to throw out our government. So

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Speaker 1: for the Chinese Communist government to survive, it had to

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Speaker 1: favor economics that would lead to prosperity. Dung understands that

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Speaker 1: if you don't have open markets and competition, and if

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Speaker 1: you don't focus on economic results over ideology, the whole

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Speaker 1: system is going to come to a grinding halt. The

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Speaker 1: Chinese people are going to rebel, and the dictatorship is

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Speaker 1: going to be gone. So he calls for a system

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Speaker 1: that's a radical change from mousy Dung. He says, I

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Speaker 1: don't care if a cat is black or a cat

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Speaker 1: is white. I care whether or not it can catch

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Speaker 1: a mouse. And what he was saying was, don't tell

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Speaker 1: me about theoretical theology. Tell me if it's going to work.

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Speaker 1: Is they're going to produce goods or people are going

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Speaker 1: to be more prosperous. Well, that was an amazing break.

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Speaker 1: And lots of us said, you know, once they go

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Speaker 1: to free markets, they're going to go to free thinking,

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Speaker 1: they're going to open up, they're going to become different.

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Speaker 1: Well we didn't realize, and frankly, until I really began

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Speaker 1: investigating Dung's own biography, I didn't fully appreciate he was

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Speaker 1: calling for open markets in order to have enough prosperity

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Speaker 1: to sustain the communist dictatorship, the opposite of what we

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Speaker 1: thought he was doing. And so his goal was relentless

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Speaker 1: and ruthless to make sure that the Communist Party stayed

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Speaker 1: in charge. And that's why they needed prosperity. Now, as

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Speaker 1: an economic strategy, it was brilliant. Three hundred million Chinese

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Speaker 1: are now middle class, basically the size of the entire

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Speaker 1: American population. One of the great economic achievements in history. Now,

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Speaker 1: we went on from believing that free markets would lead

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Speaker 1: to freedom to believing that if we could get tens

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Speaker 1: of thousands of Chinese students to come to American colleges

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Speaker 1: and universities, that would infect them with a passion for liberty.

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Speaker 1: When a speaker hosted Janjie Men, who at that time

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Speaker 1: was the head of China, his daughter was at a

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Speaker 1: university in Michigan, and I had the sense of boy,

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Speaker 1: this is great, she's going to learn about freedom. Well, no,

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Speaker 1: actually what they learned about was that America is a

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Speaker 1: kind of weird place with strange politics a weird culture.

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Speaker 1: And then they went back home to be Chinese. But

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Speaker 1: they went back home knowing math, engineering, science, which they

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Speaker 1: had learned from us. We then thought, all right, we're

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Speaker 1: going to admit China to the World Trade Organization because

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Speaker 1: it's a rules based system that really reflects the entire

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Speaker 1: model of the Western world that people have to obey

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Speaker 1: the rules. And we thought if we let them in

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Speaker 1: the World Trade Organization, they would learn to obey the

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Speaker 1: rules and that would make them more like us. The

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Speaker 1: Chinese thought this was terrific. They got to pretend to

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Speaker 1: obey the rules while cheating. So, for example, the People's

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Speaker 1: Liberation Army runs entire units, thousands of people whose only

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Speaker 1: job is to hack into American systems and steal our

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Speaker 1: intellectual property. This is clearly the official policy of the

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Speaker 1: Chinese government, and the estimate by the Director of National

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Speaker 1: Intelligence under Obama was they were stealing about four hundred

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Speaker 1: and sixty billion dollars a year as a deliberate strategy.

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Speaker 1: So today, I'd have to say, and many of my

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Speaker 1: friends who were with me and encouraging China's entry into

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Speaker 1: the World Trade Tranization, it was just a mistake. And

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Speaker 1: they're now inside, and frankly, they don't obey the rules

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Speaker 1: and they cheat whatever they can. At the same time,

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Speaker 1: a lot of our so called experts understood that if

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Speaker 1: they were negative about China, they weren't going to get

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Speaker 1: to go to China, and they weren't going to get subsidized,

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Speaker 1: and they weren't going to be able to publish. There

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Speaker 1: are a number of team experts who are basically sycophantic

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Speaker 1: about China because they know that that way they get

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Speaker 1: to go back to Beijing and they Shanghai might get

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Speaker 1: a year of teaching at one of the Chinese universities.

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Speaker 1: There's a whole block of people who, no matter what

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Speaker 1: China does, they are in fact going to always explain

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Speaker 1: it in the most pro Chinese way possible, and that

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Speaker 1: made it harder for us to get to the truth.

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Speaker 1: The first big myth that we all wanted to believe

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Speaker 1: was that the Chinese wanted to change. Now I have

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Speaker 1: to say this in retrospect is almost laughable. Here's a

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Speaker 1: five thousand year old civilization. Here is a communist party

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Speaker 1: with a deep ideological commitment to a way of governing.

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Speaker 1: The easiest way to think of this is you and

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Speaker 1: I read every day about Jijunping, the President of the

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Speaker 1: People's Republic of China, and that makes him sound normal.

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Speaker 1: He's the head of a government, but in fact that's

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Speaker 1: not what he is. Jijunping is first of all the

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Speaker 1: General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, second Amen of

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Speaker 1: the Military Commission, and third President of the People's Republic

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Speaker 1: of China. In that order. If the news media always

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Speaker 1: referred to him as General Secretary Jisi and Ping, we'd

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Speaker 1: have a much better sense of the fact that we're

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Speaker 1: dealing with a Chinese Communist Party rather than dealing with

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Speaker 1: a traditional Western government. And in fact, in Jiji and

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Speaker 1: Ping's case, it's important to remember the Military Commission exists

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Speaker 1: because in the Chinese system, the People's Liberation Army does

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Speaker 1: not owe its loyalty to the government. It owes its

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Speaker 1: loyalty to the Communist Party, and that is Ji's primary

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Speaker 1: power base. The Chinese Communist Party has ninety million members.

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Speaker 1: That means that the Chinese Communist Party has more members

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Speaker 1: than the combined populations of California, Florida, and Texas. That's

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Speaker 1: just the membership, so the members are everywhere. Every major

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Speaker 1: company has to have a member on its board of governors,

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Speaker 1: every community. His party members involved in decision making, and

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Speaker 1: the General Secretary, as the leader of the party, sits

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Speaker 1: at the top of the system, and that is the

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Speaker 1: real base of his power, not the government. Furthermore, the

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Speaker 1: Chinese Commist Party is really interesting because we tend to

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Speaker 1: look at the collapse of the Soviet system and assume

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Speaker 1: that that's the inevitable outcome for a communist party. But

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Speaker 1: since nineteen twenty one, when Dung Chopin and others founded it,

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Speaker 1: it has been a Leninist party. Lenin stood for central

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Speaker 1: control from the top, and he really understood a way

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Speaker 1: of power that was remarkable. If you go back and

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Speaker 1: look at Lenon taking over in nineteen seventeen, the degree

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Speaker 1: of control they built in the way they organized things

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Speaker 1: was astonishing, and people like Dun Chapin were learning how

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Speaker 1: Lennon operated, how he thought, how he put it together

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Speaker 1: in that setting. And this is what I think is

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Speaker 1: very very hard for Westerners to appreciate. Leninism is at

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Speaker 1: the core of the Chinese Communist Party. So they have

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Speaker 1: a Chinese Communist party founded on centralized control from the top,

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Speaker 1: which is then wrapped in Chinese culture and civilization, which

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Speaker 1: is five thousand years old, and Chinese culture and civilization

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Speaker 1: is very authoritarian, and in five thousand years, there may

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Speaker 1: be a total of thirty or forty years out of

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Speaker 1: five thousand where there was a brief period of thinking

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Speaker 1: that democracy would be cool. All the rest is based

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Speaker 1: in some kind of authoritarian leader, an imperial system, a

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Speaker 1: structure of bureaucracy, an order of obedience. So what you

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Speaker 1: now have is a party which is absolutely committed to

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Speaker 1: one thing, and this is I think one of these

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Speaker 1: is so hard for us to understand. It's committed to

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Speaker 1: the survival of itself. Ninety million Communist actually believe that

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Speaker 1: they ought to be in charge and they have very

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Speaker 1: little interest in sharing that. So we are negotiating always

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Speaker 1: not with a government, but with a political party which

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Speaker 1: owns a government, not a government which owns a political party.

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Speaker 1: And as a result, you have to think about what

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Speaker 1: is a Leninist state like, what has centralized control from

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Speaker 1: the top down. It has an absolute total willingness to

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Speaker 1: lie to outsiders. In fact, that doesn't even think it's

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Speaker 1: lying because you simply tell outsiders whatever you need to

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Speaker 1: tell them. Purging itself of dissenters and having a constant

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Speaker 1: sort of turmoil, and every time a senior Chinese leader

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Speaker 1: tries to advocate opening the system up, he's either put

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Speaker 1: in prison or he's given house arrest. One of their

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Speaker 1: top leaders spent the last twenty years of his life

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Speaker 1: and house arrest. And they do it in a calm,

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Speaker 1: methodical way. It's the world they have adjusted to The

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Speaker 1: first real breakpoint, which again people tended to including me,

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Speaker 1: tended to not fully appreciate, was in nineteen eighty nine

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Speaker 1: when there were popular demonstrations in Tenement Square. Hundreds of

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Speaker 1: thousands of people came out. There were actually demonstrations all

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Speaker 1: across China, and faced with that, people who were in charge,

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Speaker 1: starting with Dung Cha Peg, looked around, tha wait a second,

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Speaker 1: the Russians are falling apart Gorbachau's idea of glass noosed

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Speaker 1: and perastroika opening up. The system isn't working. They're going

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Speaker 1: to collapse. Why would we want to follow them? And

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Speaker 1: being stupid? In fact, watching the decay of the Soviet

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Speaker 1: Union increased the toughness of the Chinese leadership, and the

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Speaker 1: thirtieth anniversary of the massacre Attenament Square on June fourth

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Speaker 1: is a useful time to remember. When they were faced

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Speaker 1: with a real effort towards freedom, they crushed it militarily,

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Speaker 1: they crushed it ruthlessly, and they felt that they had

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Speaker 1: no choice. And they have since spent the last thirty

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Speaker 1: years wiping it out from the memory of the Chinese people.

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Speaker 1: It's not in the history textbooks, it's not something you

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Speaker 1: can go back and look at you can't find it

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Speaker 1: on their internet. From their standpoint, this is a perfect

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Speaker 1: example of what George Orwell wrote in his novel called

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Speaker 1: nineteen eighty four. They just created a memory hole. They

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Speaker 1: erased it. It didn't fit their vision of the world.

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Speaker 1: I think when I look back on that, I realized

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Speaker 1: that our interpretation are shock was almost silly. Once you

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Speaker 1: understood that this was a ruthless Leninist centralized party operating

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Speaker 1: within a Chinese tradition of authoritarian centralism, why wouldn't you

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Speaker 1: think they're going to crush descent? And I think that's

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Speaker 1: something we've got to recognize today that the number of

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Speaker 1: people in China who are actively trying to become free

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Speaker 1: is almost certainly smaller than the number of people who

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Speaker 1: are descending on the Soviet Union at any point in

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Speaker 1: the Soviet period. So when I look at all that,

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Speaker 1: I really began to think about we need to reflect

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Speaker 1: on the fact that first of all, this whole notion

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Speaker 1: that China wants to change as a mess. China wants

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Speaker 1: to win, China wants to develop economically, China wants to

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Speaker 1: have the most modern technology. But there's zero evidence that

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Speaker 1: the people that matter in China have any interest in

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Speaker 1: dramatically changing I think that the second mythic that really

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Speaker 1: hit me is this notion that China is inherently peaceful,

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Speaker 1: the Chinese don't have any great habits of warfare, etc. Now,

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Speaker 1: my father fought in Korea in nineteen fifty three. The

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Speaker 1: Chinese and Korea were very very effective, and when they

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Speaker 1: launched their surprise attack in the winter of nineteen fifty

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Speaker 1: they had moved two hundred and fifty thousand Chinese into Korea,

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Speaker 1: and despite all of our advantages, we did not know it.

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Speaker 1: They surprised us one hundred percent. They fought very effectively.

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Speaker 1: Only the sheer scale of American capabilities enabled us to

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Speaker 1: stop them. And they've been fighting for a long time.

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Speaker 1: Remember that the Chinese Communist Party is fighting both the

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Speaker 1: Japanese and the Chinese nationalists called the Kuomen Dung for decades.

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Speaker 1: They survived the war with Japan. They then won the

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Speaker 1: civil war with the Kuomen Dung or the nationalist drove

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Speaker 1: them to Taiwan and they occupied the country. That's in

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Speaker 1: the immediate past. So to think that these guys are soft,

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Speaker 1: They've since fought a short war with India. They fought

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Speaker 1: a short war with Vietnam, they fought a brief skirmish

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Speaker 1: with Russia. They're not automatically peaceful. But it goes deeper

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Speaker 1: than that, and this is why as a historian I

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Speaker 1: always try to get people to think about history. China

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Speaker 1: actually emerged out of a two hundred and fifty year

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Speaker 1: period called the Warring States. It was a time of

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Speaker 1: constant warfare which only ended when the Qing dynasty unified

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Speaker 1: China by conquering the last free state in two twenty

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Speaker 1: one BC. And in fact, the founder of modern China

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Speaker 1: called himself emperor, was the first person to call himself emperor,

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Speaker 1: and it became China. It was really named after the

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Speaker 1: Qin dynasty, which was the unifying system before that. Three

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Speaker 1: hundred years earlier, Sunsu wrote The Art of War, which

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Speaker 1: you can find in a library. Remarkable of book, very short,

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Speaker 1: and it's fascinating because Sunsu doesn't write the Art of

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Speaker 1: War for generals. What he says is that war is

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Speaker 1: a matter of survival for the state and therefore has

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Speaker 1: to be studied by statesmen. And Sunsu is writing a

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Speaker 1: very subtle approach to warfare, and he's doing so based

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Speaker 1: on hundreds of years of warfare. So this notion that

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Speaker 1: somehow though these nice, peaceful people and they don't ever

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Speaker 1: threaten anybody else requires you to know nothing about Chinese history.

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Speaker 1: And in fact, what's sobering is when you study Sunsu,

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Speaker 1: you really understand Jijinping so much better because Jijinping thoroughly

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Speaker 1: understands Sunsu and thoroughly understands the Chinese model of war.

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Speaker 1: Sunsu basically says, the greatest of all generals win bloodless victories.

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Speaker 1: It's a very subt sophisticated concept, totally opposite of the

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Speaker 1: Western way of war. The greatest of all generals when

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Speaker 1: bloodless victories. Now, what does that mean? It means you

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Speaker 1: use bribery, you use spies, you use psychological warfare, You

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Speaker 1: figure out methods of building so much power around your

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Speaker 1: opponent that they collapse without fighting. That actually, in his mind,

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Speaker 1: Sansu he believed that fighting was a sign of failure.

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Speaker 1: It's a sign of weakness. It meant you hadn't done

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Speaker 1: your job right. He says at one point, and I'm

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Speaker 1: quoting from Sansu, to subdue the enemy while fighting is

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Speaker 1: the acme of skill. This is dramatically more subtle and

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Speaker 1: more difficult than the Western way of war. Sansu is saying,

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Speaker 1: why would you get into a fight like that? If

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Speaker 1: you're clever, the enemy will never fight you because you'll

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Speaker 1: surround them and you will break them. So when you

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Speaker 1: look at it, there are long periods in Chinese history

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Speaker 1: when there's a great deal of conflict, and in fact

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Speaker 1: you have dynasty after dynasty replaced by a follow on dynasty.

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Speaker 1: The last great imperial dynasty, the Great Qing, was created

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Speaker 1: by the Manchu who came out of Manchuria and they

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Speaker 1: conquered the rest of China. They then dramatically expanded China

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Speaker 1: to the west. It's the Manchu who create the modern

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Speaker 1: borders of China, and they do it because they are

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Speaker 1: very aggressive conquerors and they were very expansionist, and they

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Speaker 1: frankly from sixteen thirty six when they started taking over China,

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Speaker 1: they stay on offense until about eighteen hundred, and some

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Speaker 1: of the most difficult problems in China and Tibet and

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Speaker 1: further west with the Weakers who are muslims Axi grew

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Speaker 1: out of conquest by the Qing during the period of

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Speaker 1: power only after eighteen hundred, as the Western nations begin

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Speaker 1: to pull away from China and military power to you

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Speaker 1: begin to see the empire on defense. Thing about this

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Speaker 1: Chinese sisters arought five thousand years long, and they have

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Speaker 1: a couple occasions and the Mongols and the Manshu come

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Speaker 1: in and sweep over the country as outsiders, and on

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Speaker 1: every occasion they just absorbed them because they have a

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Speaker 1: high civilization. They're very sophisticated, they're very wealthy, they're very

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Speaker 1: well educated, and in order to run a country the

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Speaker 1: size of China, you can't run it with Mongolian models.

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Speaker 1: So the Mongols, as soon as they conquer it, immediately

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Speaker 1: absorbed Chinese mandarins to help them run the country. It's

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Speaker 1: impossible to run without the Chinese. The same thing happens

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Speaker 1: with the Manshu. Once they take over the country, they

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Speaker 1: need the Chinese to run it. So the Chinese have

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Speaker 1: no particular experience of actually being consistently humiliated by foreigners.

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Speaker 1: They've been conquered twice, but the conquest was rapidly absorbed

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Speaker 1: into China. Then, starting in the eighteen forties, they're faced

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Speaker 1: with real humiliation. They are faced with foreign powers who

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Speaker 1: are so militarily superior that they cannot fight against them. Ironically,

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Speaker 1: given our own current problems with opioids and with fentanyl.

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Speaker 1: The first real break is the Opium War in eighteen

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Speaker 1: forty two, fought by the British to force the Chinese

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Speaker 1: to buy opium. And I think all of us in

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Speaker 1: the West should have some sense of caution when we

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Speaker 1: look at China and realize it they didn't want to

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Speaker 1: accept the opium. They fought against it, and only by

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Speaker 1: military defeat where they forced to accept it as a

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Speaker 1: trade process. So, from a Chinese perspective, after being the

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Speaker 1: Middle Kingdom, the center of the Earth, the richest nation

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Speaker 1: in the world, certainly up to about eighteen hundred, without

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Speaker 1: any question, they were the wealthiest country in the world,

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Speaker 1: all of a sudden they're being humiliated by these foreigners.

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Speaker 1: And from eighteen forty two to the defeat of the

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Speaker 1: Japanese in nineteen forty five, there's this continuous series of

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Speaker 1: foreigners who do things the Chinese that make them feel humiliated,

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Speaker 1: that make them feel their entire civilization is under threat.

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Speaker 1: And if you watch what the Chinese are doing, they

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Speaker 1: have a very deep sense that the modern rise, first

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Speaker 1: of the nationalists under Chang Kai Shek the Kuomen Dung

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Speaker 1: and then the Communist under the leadership of Mazi Dung.

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Speaker 1: They're both trying to re establish Chinese nationalism. They're both

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Speaker 1: trying to erase this humiliation at the hands of foreigners.

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Speaker 1: Their policies are very very nationalists in the sense that

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Speaker 1: they want China to take its rightful place in the world.

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Speaker 1: Mao launches in the late nineteen fifties a great leap

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Speaker 1: forward in which millions starved to death because he was

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Speaker 1: so desperate to catch up with the West that he

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Speaker 1: forced people to do things and just plane didn't work.

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Speaker 1: And then he was so worried about losing power to

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Speaker 1: rational moderates that he launched a cultural revolution in the

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Speaker 1: sixties in which he aroused basically teenagers to go out

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Speaker 1: and terrorize the rest of the country, created huge amounts

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Speaker 1: of turmoil and suffering. In fact, if you look at

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Speaker 1: somebody liked Jean Peng, he actually was sent to the

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Speaker 1: countryside as part of His father was sent to the countryside.

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Speaker 1: Even somebody as powerful as Dung Chaoupeng was both sent

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Speaker 1: to the countryside where he worked in a tractor factory,

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Speaker 1: and his son was thrown out of the Third floor

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Speaker 1: of a university dormitory and was crippled for life. So

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Speaker 1: the Cultural Revolution was a terrible moment, and the modern

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Speaker 1: leadership came out of that. They decided once Mao died

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Speaker 1: in the late seventies, they said, you know, we got

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Speaker 1: to find a way to govern ourselves that is not

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Speaker 1: constantly moved by this kind of craziness, and we have

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Speaker 1: to find a way to economically and technologically catch up

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Speaker 1: with the West and then surpass it. It is one

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Speaker 1: of the most amazing forty years of continuous progress of

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Speaker 1: any country in the world. It is really a remarkable achievement.

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Speaker 1: But it's an achievement of a dictatorship. It's an achievement

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Speaker 1: of a system dedicated to maintaining its own dictatorship. I

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Speaker 1: think the time has come where we have no choice

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Speaker 1: except to really start thinking about a realistic China policy.

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Speaker 1: And to do that, I think the first step has

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Speaker 1: to be really thinking about the nature of China. I

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Speaker 1: think we have to accept that the Chinese really want

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Speaker 1: to be Chinese. They don't want to be Western. They

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00:26:18,320 --> 00:26:21,399
Speaker 1: don't particularly think that our model of politics is useful.

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Speaker 1: They think it's destructive, chaotic, involves way too much infighting,

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00:26:25,960 --> 00:26:29,280
Speaker 1: has no sense of long term reform. They think their system,

431
00:26:29,359 --> 00:26:32,240
Speaker 1: for all of its weaknesses, is actually working for them.

432
00:26:32,800 --> 00:26:35,560
Speaker 1: We're now going to be living next to a billion,

433
00:26:35,840 --> 00:26:42,280
Speaker 1: four hundred million people with an advanced society, enormous economic capability,

434
00:26:42,840 --> 00:26:46,000
Speaker 1: thousands and thousands of scientists, many of them trained at

435
00:26:46,160 --> 00:26:50,199
Speaker 1: MIT and Harvard and Stanford and Caltech, and they're going

436
00:26:50,240 --> 00:26:53,120
Speaker 1: to be a major force in the world. So they're

437
00:26:53,119 --> 00:26:56,080
Speaker 1: going to be a worldwide power. Furthermore, if you get

438
00:26:56,080 --> 00:26:59,360
Speaker 1: a billion four a million people and they start really developing,

439
00:26:59,400 --> 00:27:02,840
Speaker 1: and you have a middle class coming online, they want

440
00:27:02,880 --> 00:27:05,160
Speaker 1: better food. They want more protein, they want a lot

441
00:27:05,200 --> 00:27:08,240
Speaker 1: more beef, they want more chicken. They also want more

442
00:27:08,359 --> 00:27:11,760
Speaker 1: minerals just to do what they want to do in technology.

443
00:27:12,080 --> 00:27:14,520
Speaker 1: The amount of copper they're going to use will make

444
00:27:14,560 --> 00:27:17,600
Speaker 1: them the largest users of copper and history. And so

445
00:27:18,160 --> 00:27:20,600
Speaker 1: they're looking all over the world for oil for every

446
00:27:20,640 --> 00:27:24,840
Speaker 1: possible kind of requirement. And that makes them again a

447
00:27:24,880 --> 00:27:29,280
Speaker 1: worldwide trading partner, going everywhere to invest. Their investments in

448
00:27:29,280 --> 00:27:33,560
Speaker 1: Africa are amazing, and the Belt and Road initiative gives

449
00:27:33,600 --> 00:27:36,879
Speaker 1: them an explanation that sounds great, but if you actually

450
00:27:36,920 --> 00:27:39,880
Speaker 1: look at the details it's not a belt and Road plan.

451
00:27:40,840 --> 00:27:44,200
Speaker 1: It's really the framework under which they go everywhere in

452
00:27:44,240 --> 00:27:46,359
Speaker 1: the world and say you're now part of our Belton

453
00:27:46,440 --> 00:27:49,840
Speaker 1: Road initiative. And they recently had a meeting in Beijing

454
00:27:50,240 --> 00:27:54,119
Speaker 1: talking about getting investments from China, getting support from China,

455
00:27:54,320 --> 00:27:58,560
Speaker 1: being involved in trade with China. So inevitably, China is

456
00:27:58,600 --> 00:28:01,720
Speaker 1: going to be a worldwide or. In fact, I would argue,

457
00:28:02,320 --> 00:28:06,399
Speaker 1: because the Soviet Union collapsed and Russia by itself is

458
00:28:06,440 --> 00:28:10,000
Speaker 1: just too small, that China is the only other worldwide

459
00:28:10,040 --> 00:28:12,639
Speaker 1: power other than the United States, and that that is

460
00:28:12,680 --> 00:28:16,400
Speaker 1: a reality we have to deal with. Furthermore, it's going

461
00:28:16,440 --> 00:28:20,439
Speaker 1: to be a very aggressive worldwide power. If you look

462
00:28:20,480 --> 00:28:22,840
Speaker 1: at what they're doing in the South China Sea, they

463
00:28:22,840 --> 00:28:25,520
Speaker 1: are beginning to build artificial islands for a practical reason.

464
00:28:26,040 --> 00:28:29,080
Speaker 1: Their goal ultimately is to define most of the South

465
00:28:29,160 --> 00:28:32,840
Speaker 1: China Sea as Chinese, which would dramatically expand the size

466
00:28:32,880 --> 00:28:35,520
Speaker 1: of the country. And again it fits the Sun Sue model.

467
00:28:36,040 --> 00:28:38,040
Speaker 1: They're not going to fight anybody. They're not out there

468
00:28:38,080 --> 00:28:41,240
Speaker 1: with a navy trying to conquer anybody. They're just building islands.

469
00:28:41,640 --> 00:28:43,720
Speaker 1: Why are you mad at them for building islands? The

470
00:28:43,760 --> 00:28:45,880
Speaker 1: islands are sort of peaceful, except we just put air

471
00:28:45,920 --> 00:28:48,560
Speaker 1: fields on them. We just built a port, we just

472
00:28:48,600 --> 00:28:51,720
Speaker 1: brought in anti aircraft missiles. But we're really being very

473
00:28:51,800 --> 00:28:54,600
Speaker 1: defensive and we're really not trying to do anything aggressive.

474
00:28:54,880 --> 00:28:57,440
Speaker 1: I also think we have to recognize that the five

475
00:28:57,560 --> 00:29:03,200
Speaker 1: G competition with Wawa is really potentially a decisive defeat

476
00:29:03,240 --> 00:29:06,640
Speaker 1: for the West. The fact is five G technology is

477
00:29:06,680 --> 00:29:09,719
Speaker 1: an enormous breakthrough. As you know, we've already done several

478
00:29:09,720 --> 00:29:12,440
Speaker 1: podcasts about it. This is one of the most important

479
00:29:12,440 --> 00:29:16,120
Speaker 1: breakthroughs in creating the next generation Internet and the next

480
00:29:16,160 --> 00:29:19,200
Speaker 1: generation communications. The fact is, if we don't find a

481
00:29:19,240 --> 00:29:23,800
Speaker 1: way to meet the Chinese challenge, and we allow the

482
00:29:23,880 --> 00:29:26,800
Speaker 1: Chinese to dominate the next generation Internet and the next

483
00:29:26,800 --> 00:29:31,080
Speaker 1: generation communication, we've taken a huge step towards living in

484
00:29:31,120 --> 00:29:34,920
Speaker 1: a Chinese defined world. And then we'll realize how truly

485
00:29:35,000 --> 00:29:38,680
Speaker 1: big the differences are in our two civilizations, and we'll

486
00:29:38,680 --> 00:29:41,520
Speaker 1: have to ask ourselves the question, how comfortable are you

487
00:29:41,560 --> 00:29:45,600
Speaker 1: going to be if American civilization is redefined to fit

488
00:29:45,720 --> 00:29:50,560
Speaker 1: Chinese characteristics. When we come back, I'll be joined by

489
00:29:50,640 --> 00:29:55,000
Speaker 1: doctor Jonathan Ward, the author of China's Vision of Victory.

490
00:29:55,080 --> 00:29:57,120
Speaker 1: America has to understand that this could be a very

491
00:29:57,120 --> 00:30:07,080
Speaker 1: tough contest, so we've got to be ready. I'd like

492
00:30:07,120 --> 00:30:11,280
Speaker 1: to welcome a new sponsor to Newsworld, stamps dot Com.

493
00:30:11,280 --> 00:30:15,920
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494
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495
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496
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497
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498
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499
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500
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501
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502
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503
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504
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505
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506
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507
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508
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509
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510
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511
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512
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513
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514
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515
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516
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517
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518
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521
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522
00:31:52,680 --> 00:31:55,160
Speaker 1: To go to stamps dot com, click on the microphone

523
00:31:55,200 --> 00:31:58,280
Speaker 1: at the top of the homepage and type in newt

524
00:31:58,280 --> 00:32:15,160
Speaker 1: that stamps dot com enter newt an e WT. Jonathan Ward,

525
00:32:15,360 --> 00:32:17,480
Speaker 1: I really appreciate your taking the time to talk with us,

526
00:32:17,480 --> 00:32:21,240
Speaker 1: and I hope that this podcast, along with the book

527
00:32:21,240 --> 00:32:23,480
Speaker 1: that we're going to do this fall, will have some

528
00:32:23,560 --> 00:32:28,080
Speaker 1: impact one increasing Americans awareness the importance of China. But

529
00:32:28,160 --> 00:32:31,120
Speaker 1: I would like to start with your own background. How

530
00:32:31,120 --> 00:32:33,560
Speaker 1: did you get interested in China? My first year out

531
00:32:33,600 --> 00:32:37,320
Speaker 1: of school, decided to backpack around China. I got a motorcycle,

532
00:32:37,760 --> 00:32:41,000
Speaker 1: roded around Shinjang out in the northwest deserts, went through Tibet,

533
00:32:41,400 --> 00:32:43,880
Speaker 1: you know, hit chiking with truck drivers and hiding from

534
00:32:43,880 --> 00:32:47,680
Speaker 1: the Chinese Army checkposts, and got a bicycle, roted across

535
00:32:47,720 --> 00:32:50,640
Speaker 1: south southern China, eventually got on Indonesian cargo ships and

536
00:32:50,640 --> 00:32:53,320
Speaker 1: went across the South of China Sea. So a lot

537
00:32:53,360 --> 00:32:57,560
Speaker 1: of my experience was going out and staying in villages,

538
00:32:57,640 --> 00:33:01,200
Speaker 1: living with people, you know, eating with people, and traveling

539
00:33:01,200 --> 00:33:03,480
Speaker 1: with them. And I got to know China through its people,

540
00:33:03,560 --> 00:33:06,520
Speaker 1: which was a wonderful experience. And all of that led

541
00:33:06,560 --> 00:33:09,240
Speaker 1: me to the question of where is this country really going?

542
00:33:09,640 --> 00:33:12,640
Speaker 1: And eventually I wound up at Oxford doing a PhD

543
00:33:12,800 --> 00:33:15,920
Speaker 1: on China India relations and that allowed me this much

544
00:33:15,960 --> 00:33:20,320
Speaker 1: deeper investigation into the natured country. What was the focus

545
00:33:20,360 --> 00:33:23,880
Speaker 1: of your studies at Oxford? China is a big topic.

546
00:33:24,400 --> 00:33:28,200
Speaker 1: So my PhD topic basically the question of why did

547
00:33:28,240 --> 00:33:30,600
Speaker 1: India and China go to war? Because they fought a

548
00:33:30,640 --> 00:33:34,800
Speaker 1: war in nineteen sixty two, the two largest nations in Asia.

549
00:33:34,880 --> 00:33:36,440
Speaker 1: Then they decided that they're going to be friends, and

550
00:33:36,480 --> 00:33:40,800
Speaker 1: then within a decade after irrespective independence and national founding,

551
00:33:41,240 --> 00:33:43,800
Speaker 1: they were at war in the Himalayas, so I had

552
00:33:43,800 --> 00:33:46,960
Speaker 1: access to all these Communist Party archives that helped explain this.

553
00:33:47,400 --> 00:33:49,880
Speaker 1: Looking at these archives and at the sort of thinking

554
00:33:49,920 --> 00:33:53,720
Speaker 1: of China's leaders and diplomats and such gave me a

555
00:33:53,760 --> 00:33:57,600
Speaker 1: sense of China's idea of national destiny, this idea they

556
00:33:57,600 --> 00:33:59,760
Speaker 1: were a nation that had been humiliated that they had

557
00:33:59,760 --> 00:34:02,880
Speaker 1: to resurrect themselves, and they were willing to take on

558
00:34:03,000 --> 00:34:06,080
Speaker 1: other major countries. So in the Cold War, they of

559
00:34:06,120 --> 00:34:09,680
Speaker 1: course fought the United States, in Korea, they split with

560
00:34:09,719 --> 00:34:12,680
Speaker 1: the USSR, they fought India. They were really willing to

561
00:34:12,719 --> 00:34:15,480
Speaker 1: take on just about everybody in order to pursue this

562
00:34:15,600 --> 00:34:18,680
Speaker 1: path of restoration. First of all, you've talked about archives.

563
00:34:18,680 --> 00:34:21,239
Speaker 1: How did you get into the Chinese archives? They were

564
00:34:21,280 --> 00:34:23,560
Speaker 1: open for a while. I mean there was a sort

565
00:34:23,560 --> 00:34:25,319
Speaker 1: of time when they were opening up a little bit

566
00:34:25,400 --> 00:34:28,000
Speaker 1: under Hu Jintao, and I was actually there when Shijin

567
00:34:28,040 --> 00:34:30,680
Speaker 1: Pin closed them down. So for a month or more

568
00:34:30,760 --> 00:34:33,120
Speaker 1: I was in there just reading everything, and then I

569
00:34:33,160 --> 00:34:34,960
Speaker 1: went in one day and they were all shut and

570
00:34:35,800 --> 00:34:37,480
Speaker 1: I thought I was going to change my plane ticket

571
00:34:37,520 --> 00:34:39,440
Speaker 1: and you know, wait from them to open up. But

572
00:34:39,480 --> 00:34:41,439
Speaker 1: they've been shut ever since and that was about five

573
00:34:41,520 --> 00:34:44,960
Speaker 1: years ago. So Shi Jinping decided to close down all

574
00:34:45,040 --> 00:34:47,120
Speaker 1: kinds of things. So you have some kind of a

575
00:34:48,440 --> 00:34:50,759
Speaker 1: story knew of how China has been evolving over the

576
00:34:50,880 --> 00:34:54,480
Speaker 1: last fifteen years. How would you say it's different now?

577
00:34:55,120 --> 00:34:58,600
Speaker 1: It changed a lot ten years ago, the national conversation,

578
00:34:58,920 --> 00:35:01,920
Speaker 1: it was all about how China was lagging behind it

579
00:35:01,960 --> 00:35:03,960
Speaker 1: had to modernize and had to catch up with the

580
00:35:04,000 --> 00:35:07,160
Speaker 1: world and sort of build its economy. Then the last

581
00:35:07,239 --> 00:35:09,560
Speaker 1: year that I was in China, the last full year

582
00:35:09,760 --> 00:35:13,720
Speaker 1: in twenty fourteen, which was under shi Jinping, the new president.

583
00:35:13,800 --> 00:35:16,479
Speaker 1: Well he's not new now, but it was everybody wanted

584
00:35:16,480 --> 00:35:18,480
Speaker 1: to talk to me about going to war with Japan.

585
00:35:19,000 --> 00:35:22,000
Speaker 1: Going to war with other neighbors is very militaristic, and

586
00:35:22,040 --> 00:35:24,560
Speaker 1: that was a giant change I found. Do you think

587
00:35:24,560 --> 00:35:29,160
Speaker 1: that's a reflection or why we're having that transition. I

588
00:35:29,160 --> 00:35:30,680
Speaker 1: think it's something we've got to keep an eye on

589
00:35:30,719 --> 00:35:32,279
Speaker 1: as a country. I mean, one of the biggest things

590
00:35:32,280 --> 00:35:35,759
Speaker 1: we need to understand is how China sort of in

591
00:35:35,880 --> 00:35:39,000
Speaker 1: Chinese language with the discussion, really is. But I think

592
00:35:39,000 --> 00:35:41,279
Speaker 1: it also has much deeper roots. I mean, you know,

593
00:35:41,360 --> 00:35:43,759
Speaker 1: Mao Zedong, the founder of the People's Republic of China

594
00:35:43,880 --> 00:35:47,319
Speaker 1: was a very violent individual. I mean he ranks with

595
00:35:47,360 --> 00:35:51,280
Speaker 1: Stalin and Hitler as one of the most bloody dictators

596
00:35:51,280 --> 00:35:54,440
Speaker 1: in human history. So there's a lot of violent discourse.

597
00:35:54,600 --> 00:35:58,160
Speaker 1: And I think the Communist Party, you know, even under

598
00:35:58,239 --> 00:36:02,720
Speaker 1: Dung Shaoping brought back rather post on chopping, brought this

599
00:36:02,920 --> 00:36:06,400
Speaker 1: sort of anti Western, anti Japanese narrative into the schools

600
00:36:06,400 --> 00:36:09,080
Speaker 1: and China into the media in order to sort of

601
00:36:09,080 --> 00:36:12,799
Speaker 1: consolidate everybody after the massacres at Tenament Square. I think

602
00:36:12,800 --> 00:36:17,200
Speaker 1: Shi Jinping is, you know, his major project is taking

603
00:36:17,280 --> 00:36:21,120
Speaker 1: China global, not only economically, but building a military that

604
00:36:21,239 --> 00:36:25,360
Speaker 1: can go beyond China's region. And I think his sense

605
00:36:25,400 --> 00:36:28,800
Speaker 1: of military prowess powers, you know, finding its way into

606
00:36:29,600 --> 00:36:32,399
Speaker 1: into the public discourse. But it's also something that has

607
00:36:32,520 --> 00:36:37,560
Speaker 1: much deeper roots. Well, when when you talk about national conversation,

608
00:36:38,040 --> 00:36:42,799
Speaker 1: I mean part of what has been trying to communicate

609
00:36:43,160 --> 00:36:46,760
Speaker 1: is what he talks about as a China Dream. How

610
00:36:46,800 --> 00:36:48,520
Speaker 1: real is that and how much do you think that

611
00:36:48,640 --> 00:36:52,640
Speaker 1: reflects goals of the Chinese people. Sign Up for the

612
00:36:52,800 --> 00:36:56,400
Speaker 1: China Dream is actually just one new chapter in a

613
00:36:56,480 --> 00:36:59,120
Speaker 1: very old idea. I mean this goes back even before

614
00:36:59,200 --> 00:37:01,480
Speaker 1: Maze Dong. It was back a hundred years at least

615
00:37:01,719 --> 00:37:03,759
Speaker 1: to some yet sound and it is this idea of

616
00:37:03,880 --> 00:37:06,640
Speaker 1: China being humiliated and China is going to resurrect itself.

617
00:37:07,080 --> 00:37:09,840
Speaker 1: Today people call it the Great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.

618
00:37:10,239 --> 00:37:13,200
Speaker 1: Mao Zedong called it the New China. The old China

619
00:37:13,360 --> 00:37:16,080
Speaker 1: was a suffering place that had been humiliated by the world,

620
00:37:16,120 --> 00:37:18,560
Speaker 1: and now there's new China and the Chinese people have

621
00:37:18,600 --> 00:37:21,600
Speaker 1: stood up. And Hijinping calls it the China Dream, and

622
00:37:21,640 --> 00:37:24,240
Speaker 1: this is something he applies to everything. There's a China

623
00:37:24,320 --> 00:37:27,000
Speaker 1: dream to build a powerful military, There's a China dream

624
00:37:27,040 --> 00:37:30,839
Speaker 1: to go to space. There's all sorts of superpower aspirations,

625
00:37:31,360 --> 00:37:33,279
Speaker 1: and I think this is something that we're going to

626
00:37:33,360 --> 00:37:37,200
Speaker 1: have to stay incredibly observant about as a country. The

627
00:37:37,239 --> 00:37:40,480
Speaker 1: goals of the Communist Party under Shi Jinping are very clear.

628
00:37:40,640 --> 00:37:44,399
Speaker 1: It's to become essentially the world's dominant superpower. It's to

629
00:37:44,440 --> 00:37:49,359
Speaker 1: fulfill this vision of national resurrection, this idea that by

630
00:37:49,400 --> 00:37:51,759
Speaker 1: the year twenty forty nine, which is one hundred years

631
00:37:51,760 --> 00:37:54,080
Speaker 1: from the founding of the People's Republic of China. At

632
00:37:54,120 --> 00:37:56,759
Speaker 1: that point, the Great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation will

633
00:37:56,800 --> 00:38:00,000
Speaker 1: be fulfilled and China will become the world's dominant power.

634
00:38:00,800 --> 00:38:03,560
Speaker 1: And what we're looking at is a country that doesn't

635
00:38:03,600 --> 00:38:06,360
Speaker 1: see itself necessarily as a rising country. It sees itself

636
00:38:06,360 --> 00:38:10,399
Speaker 1: as a returning country. Chinese civilization is thousands of years old.

637
00:38:10,719 --> 00:38:15,200
Speaker 1: They dominated their region for essentially all of their known history,

638
00:38:15,239 --> 00:38:18,359
Speaker 1: and then suddenly they had this moments where they were

639
00:38:18,440 --> 00:38:22,520
Speaker 1: humiliated at the hands of European imperial powers in Japan

640
00:38:22,560 --> 00:38:24,920
Speaker 1: and everybody, and now they're going to return to their

641
00:38:24,960 --> 00:38:28,920
Speaker 1: former glory and essentially become the world's dominant power again.

642
00:38:29,239 --> 00:38:32,040
Speaker 1: So it's very ideological, it's a very deep sense of

643
00:38:32,120 --> 00:38:34,640
Speaker 1: national destiny. I think it's one of the deepest senses

644
00:38:34,680 --> 00:38:37,680
Speaker 1: of national destiny that exists in the world today. And

645
00:38:37,719 --> 00:38:41,600
Speaker 1: it includes a very thorough and carefully planned vision of

646
00:38:41,640 --> 00:38:44,879
Speaker 1: the future that goes out thirty years and you look

647
00:38:44,880 --> 00:38:47,480
Speaker 1: at all the strategies that go into this, and I

648
00:38:47,520 --> 00:38:50,359
Speaker 1: think on your podcast you've talked about the Belton Road,

649
00:38:50,440 --> 00:38:54,040
Speaker 1: which is a project of integrating basically all of the

650
00:38:54,080 --> 00:38:56,880
Speaker 1: continents around the world. I mean not only Asian and Europe,

651
00:38:57,160 --> 00:39:00,520
Speaker 1: but Africa and Latin America, all back to China, so

652
00:39:00,600 --> 00:39:03,480
Speaker 1: that China becomes the economic center of the world. It's

653
00:39:03,520 --> 00:39:05,920
Speaker 1: this plan of building a military that can take on

654
00:39:05,960 --> 00:39:09,080
Speaker 1: the United States that will be as good, if not

655
00:39:09,200 --> 00:39:11,800
Speaker 1: better than the US. It's a plan called Made in

656
00:39:11,880 --> 00:39:14,239
Speaker 1: China twenty twenty five. It's meant to dominate to a

657
00:39:14,280 --> 00:39:18,560
Speaker 1: chief mastery of ten different strategic industries. I mean, all

658
00:39:18,600 --> 00:39:21,399
Speaker 1: of these things are very very well thought out. So

659
00:39:21,440 --> 00:39:25,759
Speaker 1: we're dealing with something that unlike most countries or organizations

660
00:39:25,800 --> 00:39:28,759
Speaker 1: that we've ever dealt with as the United States, this

661
00:39:28,880 --> 00:39:33,680
Speaker 1: is a very deep thinking, careful planning, effectively executing organizations.

662
00:39:33,760 --> 00:39:36,560
Speaker 1: So is ideological as it is, we can't underestimate what

663
00:39:36,600 --> 00:39:39,040
Speaker 1: they are able to do. It struck me though, that

664
00:39:39,480 --> 00:39:42,480
Speaker 1: there's a certain grand irony in that we have a

665
00:39:42,600 --> 00:39:46,480
Speaker 1: leader who talks about making America great again, and they

666
00:39:46,520 --> 00:39:49,239
Speaker 1: have a leader who talks about the China Dream. You

667
00:39:49,360 --> 00:39:54,200
Speaker 1: have these two competing visionary senses of the future. I

668
00:39:54,239 --> 00:39:56,919
Speaker 1: think America has found itself in a position where we've

669
00:39:56,920 --> 00:40:00,080
Speaker 1: been just taking care of a world. That's all They

670
00:40:00,160 --> 00:40:02,239
Speaker 1: sort of been built by American power. I mean what

671
00:40:02,560 --> 00:40:05,480
Speaker 1: some people call the packs American I mean our global

672
00:40:05,520 --> 00:40:08,839
Speaker 1: network of alliances I mean our very powerful economy. I mean,

673
00:40:08,880 --> 00:40:11,279
Speaker 1: all of these things have been readily built. We just

674
00:40:11,320 --> 00:40:13,600
Speaker 1: had the American century. We won the Cold War, we

675
00:40:13,640 --> 00:40:17,200
Speaker 1: won the world wars. We're very successful. And then I

676
00:40:17,239 --> 00:40:20,200
Speaker 1: think we lacked a post Cold War vision. And you know,

677
00:40:20,239 --> 00:40:25,000
Speaker 1: we decided to let all the authoritarian dictatorships into the

678
00:40:25,280 --> 00:40:29,000
Speaker 1: American order, to trade with them, to engage with them economically,

679
00:40:29,040 --> 00:40:31,920
Speaker 1: to send our companies out to go and do business

680
00:40:32,000 --> 00:40:34,640
Speaker 1: in China and such, and hoping that this would change

681
00:40:34,680 --> 00:40:38,239
Speaker 1: them and sort of bring them into this world order

682
00:40:38,280 --> 00:40:41,239
Speaker 1: as our friend. And what we found instead was that

683
00:40:41,560 --> 00:40:45,319
Speaker 1: they basically brought on all the all of our technology

684
00:40:45,360 --> 00:40:49,040
Speaker 1: and capabilities and they're using those to fulfill their own idea,

685
00:40:49,080 --> 00:40:51,360
Speaker 1: which is this great rejuvenation of the Chinese nations. So

686
00:40:51,960 --> 00:40:53,959
Speaker 1: I think once again we have to start thinking big.

687
00:40:53,960 --> 00:40:56,080
Speaker 1: We have to get ready to compete with a superpower.

688
00:40:56,400 --> 00:40:59,880
Speaker 1: It's an economic superpower. I think we have an economic competition.

689
00:41:00,080 --> 00:41:02,640
Speaker 1: We have got to win because it would be very,

690
00:41:02,719 --> 00:41:05,600
Speaker 1: very bad for the United States if China did in

691
00:41:05,640 --> 00:41:10,480
Speaker 1: fact become the world's dominant power. As Hijinping put it,

692
00:41:10,840 --> 00:41:13,160
Speaker 1: they say that they have the invincible force of one

693
00:41:13,200 --> 00:41:16,399
Speaker 1: point three billion people and an infinite stage for their

694
00:41:16,440 --> 00:41:19,920
Speaker 1: era and the ideas. They have plans on how to

695
00:41:19,960 --> 00:41:22,640
Speaker 1: get there. But once they reach this point, it's really

696
00:41:22,640 --> 00:41:25,560
Speaker 1: about assuming power, and then the question is what would

697
00:41:25,560 --> 00:41:26,920
Speaker 1: they like to do with it. I mean, I think

698
00:41:26,960 --> 00:41:28,960
Speaker 1: even they don't know what that would look like. But

699
00:41:29,239 --> 00:41:32,680
Speaker 1: the path now is really about gaining power and becoming

700
00:41:33,000 --> 00:41:36,640
Speaker 1: this dominant country. But why should the average American care?

701
00:41:36,880 --> 00:41:40,600
Speaker 1: I mean, so the Chinese dominate the world, why will

702
00:41:40,600 --> 00:41:43,440
Speaker 1: that affect our lives? This comes down to a question

703
00:41:43,480 --> 00:41:46,000
Speaker 1: of what our country really is meant to be and

704
00:41:46,120 --> 00:41:49,280
Speaker 1: what it represents. The values of America where a system

705
00:41:49,320 --> 00:41:53,080
Speaker 1: that's built on rights and freedom. Think about the path

706
00:41:53,080 --> 00:41:55,560
Speaker 1: of the United States, the American Revolution, the Civil War,

707
00:41:55,600 --> 00:41:58,839
Speaker 1: the world wars. We've worked so hard to carve out

708
00:41:58,880 --> 00:42:01,120
Speaker 1: this place in the world where rights and freedom are

709
00:42:01,440 --> 00:42:04,279
Speaker 1: the way of life. And in China this is just

710
00:42:04,440 --> 00:42:06,640
Speaker 1: not the case. You're talking about a place where freedom

711
00:42:06,640 --> 00:42:10,080
Speaker 1: of the press, freedom of assembly, these things don't exist.

712
00:42:10,080 --> 00:42:14,000
Speaker 1: Dissidents are imprisoned and executed. People are now being put

713
00:42:14,000 --> 00:42:18,040
Speaker 1: in concentration camps in Shinjang, which is this northwest part

714
00:42:18,040 --> 00:42:21,799
Speaker 1: of China. You're talking about the world's most powerful dictatorship,

715
00:42:22,080 --> 00:42:23,799
Speaker 1: and the idea that we were going to change them

716
00:42:23,840 --> 00:42:27,400
Speaker 1: by engaging economically has clearly failed. And the idea that

717
00:42:27,400 --> 00:42:30,680
Speaker 1: they're going to become friendlier to the US or to

718
00:42:30,760 --> 00:42:34,000
Speaker 1: our values only because they now gain power in addition

719
00:42:34,040 --> 00:42:38,000
Speaker 1: to economic strength is I think it's been more dangerous.

720
00:42:38,120 --> 00:42:42,000
Speaker 1: So it's always about who's holding power. We really have

721
00:42:42,040 --> 00:42:45,080
Speaker 1: to ask ourselves if an organization such as the Chinese

722
00:42:45,120 --> 00:42:47,560
Speaker 1: Communist Party, which in fact has one of the highest

723
00:42:47,600 --> 00:42:50,600
Speaker 1: death counts in human history, and some people estimated it

724
00:42:50,680 --> 00:42:54,320
Speaker 1: up to forty to sixty million people under Mao Zedong

725
00:42:54,400 --> 00:42:57,200
Speaker 1: and other Communist Party leaders, I mean, do we really

726
00:42:57,239 --> 00:43:01,240
Speaker 1: want them to be running the world. I've been trying

727
00:43:01,280 --> 00:43:07,160
Speaker 1: to explain the centrality of the Chinese Communist Party. The

728
00:43:07,320 --> 00:43:11,600
Speaker 1: number one goal of Jijianping has to be to keep

729
00:43:11,640 --> 00:43:18,200
Speaker 1: the Chinese Communist Party in power, and everything comes from that.

730
00:43:19,920 --> 00:43:23,279
Speaker 1: But how would you interpret it? I think that is important.

731
00:43:23,880 --> 00:43:28,000
Speaker 1: Look more broadly at human history, whether it's democracies or dictatorships,

732
00:43:28,080 --> 00:43:32,200
Speaker 1: or feudalist kingdoms or empires. I mean, there's something that's

733
00:43:32,200 --> 00:43:34,879
Speaker 1: about holding onto power, and then there's the other side

734
00:43:34,880 --> 00:43:36,920
Speaker 1: is what you're doing with it. I mean I think

735
00:43:37,080 --> 00:43:39,680
Speaker 1: she has a very clear imperial vision in the Belton

736
00:43:39,800 --> 00:43:42,680
Speaker 1: Road and the military modernization plan, the building of a

737
00:43:42,719 --> 00:43:48,040
Speaker 1: massive military, the desire to master emerging technologies where there's

738
00:43:48,080 --> 00:43:51,680
Speaker 1: artificial intelligence or five G, or their ambitions in space

739
00:43:51,800 --> 00:43:54,720
Speaker 1: in the deep sea. This is much more than holding

740
00:43:54,719 --> 00:43:58,200
Speaker 1: onto power. This is an incredibly ambitious regime. It's a

741
00:43:58,239 --> 00:44:00,800
Speaker 1: regime who believe, I think on one level, for whatever

742
00:44:00,800 --> 00:44:04,239
Speaker 1: its insecurities may be, the discourse of this country is

743
00:44:04,280 --> 00:44:07,720
Speaker 1: about our time has come, they said in their official

744
00:44:07,760 --> 00:44:11,960
Speaker 1: news agency. By twenty fifty two, centuries after the Opium

745
00:44:11,960 --> 00:44:14,200
Speaker 1: Wars which plunge the Middle Kingdom into a period of

746
00:44:14,280 --> 00:44:17,560
Speaker 1: hurt and shame, China's set to regain its might and

747
00:44:17,680 --> 00:44:20,839
Speaker 1: reascend to the top of the world. They're out there

748
00:44:20,840 --> 00:44:24,440
Speaker 1: conducting very successful diplomacy with even some of our closest allies.

749
00:44:24,480 --> 00:44:26,240
Speaker 1: I mean, you look at right now at the Battle

750
00:44:26,320 --> 00:44:30,160
Speaker 1: for five G in Britain. This idea that Huaweia, Chinese

751
00:44:30,160 --> 00:44:34,560
Speaker 1: company founded by a former People's Liberation Army officer, is

752
00:44:34,600 --> 00:44:38,880
Speaker 1: going to build pieces of the infrastructure of our traditionally

753
00:44:38,920 --> 00:44:41,840
Speaker 1: best allies in the world. I mean, they're succeeding so

754
00:44:41,960 --> 00:44:44,680
Speaker 1: much of this. China today is a global power, it's

755
00:44:44,760 --> 00:44:48,040
Speaker 1: not just a regional power. I try to describe part

756
00:44:48,120 --> 00:44:54,640
Speaker 1: of the difference is the General Secretary of the Communist Party,

757
00:44:55,480 --> 00:45:00,200
Speaker 1: the chairman of the Military Commission, and the President of

758
00:45:00,239 --> 00:45:05,359
Speaker 1: the People's Republic of China in that order. And if

759
00:45:05,360 --> 00:45:10,960
Speaker 1: our news media actually referred to him as general secretary,

760
00:45:11,239 --> 00:45:14,759
Speaker 1: you'd have a totally different sense of who he is

761
00:45:15,400 --> 00:45:18,759
Speaker 1: and what motivates him, Whereas by referring to him as

762
00:45:18,800 --> 00:45:24,280
Speaker 1: president we normalize him into a Western political model. What's

763
00:45:24,320 --> 00:45:27,320
Speaker 1: your reaction to that hierarchy. I think he's elevated the

764
00:45:27,360 --> 00:45:29,759
Speaker 1: importance of military power. I mean, in the end, we

765
00:45:29,800 --> 00:45:33,520
Speaker 1: have to remember that the Chinese military is the party's military.

766
00:45:33,719 --> 00:45:36,120
Speaker 1: I remember when I used to travel around and I'd see,

767
00:45:36,360 --> 00:45:39,280
Speaker 1: you know, just happen upon Chinese basis and such. And

768
00:45:39,320 --> 00:45:42,600
Speaker 1: there's this thing about ting Dong Jihue, which has listened

769
00:45:42,600 --> 00:45:45,480
Speaker 1: to the party's command, the PLA. I think, I think

770
00:45:45,480 --> 00:45:47,920
Speaker 1: it'd be very useful to the American public to have

771
00:45:47,920 --> 00:45:51,040
Speaker 1: a sense of what, you know, training manuals and ideological

772
00:45:51,120 --> 00:45:56,200
Speaker 1: indoctrination looks like, I mean, that's probably obtainable. It's meant

773
00:45:56,200 --> 00:45:58,920
Speaker 1: to instill an absolute loyalty to the party. She has

774
00:45:59,000 --> 00:46:01,239
Speaker 1: consolidated power in a way that some say has not

775
00:46:01,320 --> 00:46:04,920
Speaker 1: happened since Mao Zedong. I suppose that's accurate. And in

776
00:46:04,960 --> 00:46:07,680
Speaker 1: the end, it's about the hierarchy there. I mean, it's

777
00:46:07,680 --> 00:46:10,839
Speaker 1: the party, the military, and then really the rest of it.

778
00:46:10,880 --> 00:46:14,960
Speaker 1: We've done everything we possibly can to normalize China, essentially

779
00:46:14,960 --> 00:46:17,040
Speaker 1: in our own minds, and I think that's led to

780
00:46:17,120 --> 00:46:20,640
Speaker 1: some pretty poor strategy and bad thinking on what the

781
00:46:20,680 --> 00:46:23,760
Speaker 1: situation really is. So we trade with them because they're

782
00:46:24,080 --> 00:46:27,520
Speaker 1: growing rich and technologically advanced. In all of this, we've

783
00:46:27,520 --> 00:46:31,760
Speaker 1: decided that that it's not really communism, but we forget

784
00:46:31,800 --> 00:46:36,320
Speaker 1: that it's Leninism, which is essentially a one party dictatorship,

785
00:46:36,760 --> 00:46:39,400
Speaker 1: and that's never change, and I think we wrote that

786
00:46:39,440 --> 00:46:44,080
Speaker 1: out of the narrative for our own convenience. So given

787
00:46:44,120 --> 00:46:47,200
Speaker 1: the importance you place on the military role, would you

788
00:46:47,239 --> 00:46:51,600
Speaker 1: put the military commission ahead of being the general secretary

789
00:46:51,840 --> 00:46:55,520
Speaker 1: or is the general secretary still because of the power

790
00:46:55,520 --> 00:46:58,680
Speaker 1: of the party. In the end, the dominant system, the

791
00:46:58,840 --> 00:47:01,200
Speaker 1: party in the military go hand in hand essentially, so

792
00:47:01,239 --> 00:47:04,279
Speaker 1: he has to make control certainly of both, but he's

793
00:47:04,320 --> 00:47:08,000
Speaker 1: probably had to work hardest to consolidate his power over

794
00:47:08,040 --> 00:47:10,960
Speaker 1: the military, and that's obviously very important to him right now,

795
00:47:11,360 --> 00:47:14,560
Speaker 1: shi Jinping. I mean, we think about this, after seventy

796
00:47:14,640 --> 00:47:17,560
Speaker 1: years of relative peace in the Pacific, he's saying, on

797
00:47:17,600 --> 00:47:21,080
Speaker 1: a regular basis, we must prepare to fight and win wars.

798
00:47:21,640 --> 00:47:23,560
Speaker 1: So what's he talking about. I mean, he's building a

799
00:47:23,600 --> 00:47:27,720
Speaker 1: military that's designed to deter the United States or to

800
00:47:27,719 --> 00:47:29,680
Speaker 1: take on the United States on some level if there

801
00:47:29,719 --> 00:47:32,440
Speaker 1: were to be a conflict, and he's talking about being

802
00:47:32,760 --> 00:47:34,640
Speaker 1: prepared to fight and win wars. So I think it's

803
00:47:34,680 --> 00:47:38,040
Speaker 1: clearly important to him personally, and that's very dangerous for

804
00:47:38,080 --> 00:47:41,799
Speaker 1: the rest of us. If you could talk personally to

805
00:47:41,960 --> 00:47:46,279
Speaker 1: every American, what are the things you wish they know

806
00:47:46,400 --> 00:47:48,839
Speaker 1: about China. We have to understand that this is our

807
00:47:48,840 --> 00:47:52,160
Speaker 1: greatest challenge. Very few people alive today have had to

808
00:47:52,200 --> 00:47:55,759
Speaker 1: deal with a foreign policy challenge of this scale. I mean,

809
00:47:55,760 --> 00:47:57,960
Speaker 1: we haven't seen this since I think the early Cold War.

810
00:47:58,600 --> 00:48:01,120
Speaker 1: The last time that the world order was you know,

811
00:48:01,320 --> 00:48:03,160
Speaker 1: had this kind of stress being put on. It was

812
00:48:03,200 --> 00:48:06,319
Speaker 1: really the opening decades of the Cold War. We have

813
00:48:06,360 --> 00:48:08,480
Speaker 1: to be ready to think broadly about the world again.

814
00:48:08,920 --> 00:48:11,719
Speaker 1: There has to be American leadership. It's our destiny to

815
00:48:11,760 --> 00:48:15,360
Speaker 1: be engaged with the world, and American leadership is critical

816
00:48:15,680 --> 00:48:17,319
Speaker 1: to whether or not we come out of this all right,

817
00:48:17,400 --> 00:48:20,719
Speaker 1: America has to understood that this could be a very

818
00:48:20,719 --> 00:48:23,800
Speaker 1: tough contest. We've got to be ready. We have a

819
00:48:23,840 --> 00:48:26,200
Speaker 1: lot of great expertise on China in this country and

820
00:48:26,239 --> 00:48:28,359
Speaker 1: around the world, but what we really have to get

821
00:48:28,400 --> 00:48:31,879
Speaker 1: ready for is what to do about this new challenge. One.

822
00:48:31,920 --> 00:48:35,040
Speaker 1: We've got to win this economic competition. We're a twenty

823
00:48:35,040 --> 00:48:39,400
Speaker 1: trillion dollar economy where the richest and most powerful country

824
00:48:39,520 --> 00:48:42,799
Speaker 1: in human history, and we have not lost this thing yet,

825
00:48:42,840 --> 00:48:46,799
Speaker 1: we have not even started to contend with it. We've

826
00:48:46,840 --> 00:48:49,360
Speaker 1: got to start thinking about how to win the economic competition,

827
00:48:49,719 --> 00:48:53,759
Speaker 1: and that includes empower in our companies to do well

828
00:48:53,840 --> 00:48:56,279
Speaker 1: in a global world, but a world that's contested and

829
00:48:56,320 --> 00:49:00,520
Speaker 1: not just open markets. We've got to have a great

830
00:49:00,719 --> 00:49:04,600
Speaker 1: robust diplomacy with all our true friends and allies. And

831
00:49:04,640 --> 00:49:06,839
Speaker 1: then we've got to hold the military balance. You can't

832
00:49:06,920 --> 00:49:09,719
Speaker 1: let a leader like Shi Jinping ever have a good

833
00:49:09,800 --> 00:49:12,680
Speaker 1: day to pick a fight. Don't let it get easy

834
00:49:12,760 --> 00:49:17,520
Speaker 1: for Putin nor Shi Jinping to actually try and challenge

835
00:49:17,560 --> 00:49:19,600
Speaker 1: us militarily. And this is what we saw in the

836
00:49:19,680 --> 00:49:22,160
Speaker 1: last five years. I was living in China when the

837
00:49:22,239 --> 00:49:25,960
Speaker 1: South China Sea was getting started, and when Putin took Crimea,

838
00:49:26,040 --> 00:49:29,040
Speaker 1: and I remember on Chinese television there was in Chinese

839
00:49:29,080 --> 00:49:32,880
Speaker 1: language there as these reports on just essentially very supportive

840
00:49:32,880 --> 00:49:36,439
Speaker 1: of Russian and the two were working together to start

841
00:49:36,520 --> 00:49:39,360
Speaker 1: pushing at the edges of American power. We've got to

842
00:49:39,360 --> 00:49:42,960
Speaker 1: be prepared to win on the China front. And what

843
00:49:43,000 --> 00:49:45,880
Speaker 1: it really means is economic competition if we want to

844
00:49:45,920 --> 00:49:50,480
Speaker 1: avoid worse outcomes. Have you looked at much at Huawei

845
00:49:50,560 --> 00:49:54,000
Speaker 1: and five G as sort of an area of Chinese

846
00:49:54,000 --> 00:49:57,840
Speaker 1: strategic development. This is very important because right now Huawei,

847
00:49:57,840 --> 00:50:00,680
Speaker 1: which is they say that it's privately held company. I

848
00:50:00,719 --> 00:50:04,239
Speaker 1: don't think anyone's done the right investigative work to figure

849
00:50:04,239 --> 00:50:06,800
Speaker 1: out what it really is. It's very dangerous. We can't

850
00:50:06,800 --> 00:50:11,040
Speaker 1: have a company that's beholden to the Chinese state out

851
00:50:11,080 --> 00:50:15,719
Speaker 1: there building next generation telecommunications architecture all around the world,

852
00:50:15,800 --> 00:50:18,760
Speaker 1: including some of our allies. If you have any doubts

853
00:50:18,800 --> 00:50:21,480
Speaker 1: about why a company like Bluawe should not be operating

854
00:50:22,120 --> 00:50:25,480
Speaker 1: in the US or in democratic allies, I mean, here's

855
00:50:25,480 --> 00:50:30,560
Speaker 1: the Chinese National Intelligence law says any organization and citizen shall,

856
00:50:30,640 --> 00:50:34,920
Speaker 1: in accordance with the law, support, provide assistance, and cooperate

857
00:50:34,960 --> 00:50:38,160
Speaker 1: in national intelligence work, and guard the secrecy of any

858
00:50:38,239 --> 00:50:41,000
Speaker 1: national intelligence work that they are aware of. The State

859
00:50:41,040 --> 00:50:45,480
Speaker 1: shall protect individuals and organizations that support, cooperate with, and

860
00:50:45,640 --> 00:50:49,480
Speaker 1: collaborate national intelligence work. And then Ren Jung Fund himself,

861
00:50:49,560 --> 00:50:52,880
Speaker 1: the founder of Huali, who was a PLA officer, I

862
00:50:52,920 --> 00:50:54,400
Speaker 1: think the world needs to get to know him a

863
00:50:54,400 --> 00:50:57,839
Speaker 1: lot better because what we'll find, I think is not

864
00:50:58,040 --> 00:51:01,360
Speaker 1: so nice. I'm going to give you example here where

865
00:51:01,520 --> 00:51:06,160
Speaker 1: he says he's studying Western companies and he basically says

866
00:51:06,200 --> 00:51:08,839
Speaker 1: we have to only by learning from them can we

867
00:51:08,880 --> 00:51:11,319
Speaker 1: defeat them one day. And this is a man who

868
00:51:11,640 --> 00:51:15,040
Speaker 1: not only being a PLA officer, I mean he wrote

869
00:51:15,080 --> 00:51:18,080
Speaker 1: an ode to the Great Rejuvenation of the Chinese Nation.

870
00:51:18,120 --> 00:51:21,840
Speaker 1: He tells military stories to his organization. He even uses

871
00:51:21,920 --> 00:51:25,120
Speaker 1: Mao's strategies to describe how they operate as a business.

872
00:51:25,160 --> 00:51:27,440
Speaker 1: So I think there's just so much information there that

873
00:51:27,520 --> 00:51:30,440
Speaker 1: could help us end be much more successful in our

874
00:51:30,480 --> 00:51:33,600
Speaker 1: diplomacy to counter it. Let me ask from the opposite direction,

875
00:51:34,080 --> 00:51:36,880
Speaker 1: if Americans just can't get their act together, and we

876
00:51:36,960 --> 00:51:40,680
Speaker 1: can't change. What do you think will happen. I think

877
00:51:40,680 --> 00:51:44,520
Speaker 1: we see the end of an American led world. It's

878
00:51:44,520 --> 00:51:46,759
Speaker 1: really the next decade is what matters. We've got to

879
00:51:46,800 --> 00:51:51,160
Speaker 1: start thinking longer term and realizing that this is about

880
00:51:51,280 --> 00:51:53,440
Speaker 1: how power works in the twenty first century. It's all

881
00:51:53,440 --> 00:51:57,359
Speaker 1: the emergent technologies. It's a global system's you don't want

882
00:51:57,360 --> 00:51:59,880
Speaker 1: somebody else build in, particularly if the system, the political

883
00:52:00,040 --> 00:52:03,960
Speaker 1: system that they run, is designed to crush heights and freedoms.

884
00:52:04,000 --> 00:52:06,879
Speaker 1: I think every fifty years we get dictatorships and democracies,

885
00:52:07,200 --> 00:52:09,320
Speaker 1: and it happened in the first half of the twentieth century,

886
00:52:09,360 --> 00:52:11,720
Speaker 1: it happened in the Cold War, and it's happening again.

887
00:52:12,360 --> 00:52:15,120
Speaker 1: And the difference here is that they've feasted on our

888
00:52:15,719 --> 00:52:19,759
Speaker 1: technological advancements and industrial investments, and on the generosity of

889
00:52:19,760 --> 00:52:23,120
Speaker 1: the United States and inviting China into the world. Even

890
00:52:23,200 --> 00:52:26,920
Speaker 1: under the leadership of this dictatorship, which you know, you

891
00:52:26,920 --> 00:52:29,239
Speaker 1: think about, even in the time in which we were

892
00:52:29,680 --> 00:52:32,600
Speaker 1: beginning to open to them, there was the massacre at

893
00:52:32,600 --> 00:52:36,000
Speaker 1: Tianeman Square, and the thirtieth anniversary of that massacre is

894
00:52:36,000 --> 00:52:39,239
Speaker 1: coming up. Happened in nineteen eighty nine. What happens is

895
00:52:39,239 --> 00:52:42,240
Speaker 1: you have all these young people, you know, just students

896
00:52:42,280 --> 00:52:44,799
Speaker 1: and everything, that are out there in Tianement Square, and

897
00:52:44,840 --> 00:52:48,440
Speaker 1: they're carrying basically a statue of liberty, and then Dung

898
00:52:48,560 --> 00:52:52,040
Speaker 1: Shao Ping sends in tanks to kill these people, to

899
00:52:52,120 --> 00:52:55,319
Speaker 1: just kill them all. A few years later, we gave

900
00:52:55,360 --> 00:52:59,160
Speaker 1: them most Favored Nation status. It is amazing. Listen, let

901
00:52:59,200 --> 00:53:03,719
Speaker 1: me thank you. This has been extraordinarily helpful. Thank you

902
00:53:03,719 --> 00:53:06,799
Speaker 1: for your time. And I think it's so important for

903
00:53:06,840 --> 00:53:09,960
Speaker 1: all of us who share this mission of awakening the

904
00:53:10,040 --> 00:53:14,440
Speaker 1: United States to this challenge on preparing us to succeed

905
00:53:14,520 --> 00:53:18,479
Speaker 1: in this great competition. Next, I'll discuss how the United

906
00:53:18,480 --> 00:53:39,080
Speaker 1: States must stand up against China's global dominance. Doctor Jonathan

907
00:53:39,120 --> 00:53:43,360
Speaker 1: Ward points out with his book China's Vision of Victory,

908
00:53:44,160 --> 00:53:47,839
Speaker 1: that we really have a competitor who intends to win,

909
00:53:48,840 --> 00:53:51,880
Speaker 1: who has a particular model of how to achieve that victory,

910
00:53:52,520 --> 00:53:56,400
Speaker 1: and who in many ways has done remarkably well. I

911
00:53:56,480 --> 00:53:59,640
Speaker 1: think we have to recognize the scale of the challenge

912
00:53:59,640 --> 00:54:04,440
Speaker 1: we're with. The Chinese government has a whole series of

913
00:54:04,600 --> 00:54:09,240
Speaker 1: parallel strategies, all of them designed to expand Chinese power.

914
00:54:10,000 --> 00:54:12,719
Speaker 1: You have to see the South China Sea as a

915
00:54:12,800 --> 00:54:15,279
Speaker 1: piece of a larger story. You have to see the

916
00:54:15,360 --> 00:54:18,560
Speaker 1: Belt and Road initiative as a piece of the larger story.

917
00:54:19,000 --> 00:54:21,799
Speaker 1: You have to see their investment in Hahwei and five

918
00:54:21,920 --> 00:54:25,080
Speaker 1: G technology as a piece of the whole story. And

919
00:54:25,160 --> 00:54:28,520
Speaker 1: you have to see their investments in space, their modernization

920
00:54:28,520 --> 00:54:32,759
Speaker 1: of their military. Day after day you find things where

921
00:54:32,800 --> 00:54:36,359
Speaker 1: they are methodically on moving and in some places it's

922
00:54:36,480 --> 00:54:41,440
Speaker 1: very impressive. Go out sometime and ride Amtrak and then

923
00:54:41,520 --> 00:54:46,759
Speaker 1: realize that the Chinese over over eleven thousand miles of

924
00:54:46,880 --> 00:54:49,640
Speaker 1: high speed rail and they're going to have over twenty

925
00:54:49,680 --> 00:54:53,000
Speaker 1: thousand in the next decade. Now, how come they can

926
00:54:53,040 --> 00:54:56,319
Speaker 1: build high speed rail and we can't. And that's the

927
00:54:56,400 --> 00:54:58,040
Speaker 1: kind of thing you're seeing again and again. And if

928
00:54:58,040 --> 00:55:03,760
Speaker 1: you are Chinese and you land at Kennedy or LaGuardia

929
00:55:03,800 --> 00:55:06,319
Speaker 1: and you looked at the mess and you looked at

930
00:55:06,360 --> 00:55:09,280
Speaker 1: the lack of infrastructure, and you looked at the decay

931
00:55:09,320 --> 00:55:12,560
Speaker 1: of the subways, would you particularly be afraid of the

932
00:55:12,600 --> 00:55:15,480
Speaker 1: American future or would you look at what you've been

933
00:55:15,520 --> 00:55:18,920
Speaker 1: doing in your country and say, you know, we've got

934
00:55:18,920 --> 00:55:21,760
Speaker 1: a real chance to win. We're up against an opponent

935
00:55:22,360 --> 00:55:25,040
Speaker 1: who has a very real chance to win, who could

936
00:55:25,040 --> 00:55:28,120
Speaker 1: well dominate, and we've got to decide how we're going

937
00:55:28,160 --> 00:55:30,160
Speaker 1: to deal with it. And I think part of what

938
00:55:30,320 --> 00:55:33,880
Speaker 1: makes the whole issue of tariffs so important is the

939
00:55:33,920 --> 00:55:37,839
Speaker 1: tariffs are simply a tool. President Trump has figured out

940
00:55:38,480 --> 00:55:42,200
Speaker 1: that the Chinese routinely cheat on trade at every level.

941
00:55:43,040 --> 00:55:45,799
Speaker 1: They seal off their own country, so if they don't

942
00:55:45,800 --> 00:55:49,160
Speaker 1: want high technology competitors, they don't let them in period.

943
00:55:49,600 --> 00:55:52,840
Speaker 1: They require people to have Communists on their board of

944
00:55:52,880 --> 00:55:57,160
Speaker 1: directors for their Chinese subsidiaries. They create environments in which

945
00:55:57,200 --> 00:56:00,600
Speaker 1: their side wins. They have an entire part of the

946
00:56:00,600 --> 00:56:05,400
Speaker 1: People's Liberation Army dedicated to stealing our intellectual secrets. And

947
00:56:05,480 --> 00:56:07,319
Speaker 1: so what you have going on right now is a

948
00:56:07,440 --> 00:56:10,839
Speaker 1: very serious effort by the United States to begin to

949
00:56:10,920 --> 00:56:14,239
Speaker 1: change Chinese behavior, to get them to agree that there

950
00:56:14,280 --> 00:56:17,760
Speaker 1: are things they won't do anymore. And that's why, for example,

951
00:56:18,160 --> 00:56:22,600
Speaker 1: the Chinese government has been so adamant that it doesn't

952
00:56:22,600 --> 00:56:26,239
Speaker 1: want to cave in on things like intellectual property rights

953
00:56:26,239 --> 00:56:28,960
Speaker 1: in a way which would stop it from stealing. And

954
00:56:29,000 --> 00:56:31,759
Speaker 1: I think that this is going to continue for a while.

955
00:56:32,040 --> 00:56:35,280
Speaker 1: My guess is that the things we need the Chinese

956
00:56:35,320 --> 00:56:39,440
Speaker 1: to do to be acceptable will be unacceptable to the

957
00:56:39,520 --> 00:56:42,719
Speaker 1: Chinese dictatorship, and that they will prefer, at least for

958
00:56:42,760 --> 00:56:45,520
Speaker 1: the short run, to have an economic war with us

959
00:56:46,160 --> 00:56:49,960
Speaker 1: rather than to agree to any kind of binding agreement. Now,

960
00:56:50,600 --> 00:56:54,319
Speaker 1: the political and the psychological pressure may be such that

961
00:56:54,400 --> 00:56:57,680
Speaker 1: we accept a relatively bad deal. If that happens, my

962
00:56:57,760 --> 00:57:00,560
Speaker 1: prediction is within four or five years will right back

963
00:57:00,600 --> 00:57:04,040
Speaker 1: at the same place, because they will relentlessly do everything

964
00:57:04,040 --> 00:57:06,840
Speaker 1: they can to cheat, and we currently don't have the

965
00:57:06,880 --> 00:57:10,560
Speaker 1: mechanisms to stop them. So I think what we're living

966
00:57:10,560 --> 00:57:15,120
Speaker 1: through is really the beginning of a very long competition.

967
00:57:15,600 --> 00:57:18,200
Speaker 1: Based on everything I've read and studied and thought about,

968
00:57:18,560 --> 00:57:21,160
Speaker 1: and thinking back to my own experiences in the Cold War,

969
00:57:21,720 --> 00:57:25,480
Speaker 1: I believe either the Chinese are going to win quickly

970
00:57:25,800 --> 00:57:28,560
Speaker 1: and within thirty or forty years will be the dominant

971
00:57:28,560 --> 00:57:32,240
Speaker 1: force on the planet, or we will have mobilized and

972
00:57:32,280 --> 00:57:34,840
Speaker 1: structured in such a way that we will have a

973
00:57:34,880 --> 00:57:38,720
Speaker 1: competition with them that lasts several hundred years until their

974
00:57:38,800 --> 00:57:42,040
Speaker 1: system finally does in fact begin to change. Just because

975
00:57:42,080 --> 00:57:45,680
Speaker 1: in the long run, freedom is actually better than tyranny

976
00:57:46,120 --> 00:57:49,400
Speaker 1: and openness actually is better than a closed police state.

977
00:57:50,080 --> 00:57:53,360
Speaker 1: The victory for US is a very long way off.

978
00:57:53,840 --> 00:57:56,320
Speaker 1: The danger to US is starting with Huawei and five

979
00:57:56,440 --> 00:57:59,440
Speaker 1: G and the chance of the Chinese to define the

980
00:57:59,520 --> 00:58:03,120
Speaker 1: Internet and define communications and the work they're doing all

981
00:58:03,200 --> 00:58:06,760
Speaker 1: over the world to create relationships that would have been

982
00:58:06,880 --> 00:58:11,280
Speaker 1: unthinkable ten years ago. There's a very grave danger that

983
00:58:11,360 --> 00:58:14,760
Speaker 1: the Chinese will have won this competition, certainly within the

984
00:58:14,800 --> 00:58:17,520
Speaker 1: next thirty to forty years. We're just at the beginning

985
00:58:17,520 --> 00:58:20,160
Speaker 1: of this conversation as a country, and that's why I

986
00:58:20,160 --> 00:58:23,360
Speaker 1: think it's so really, really important that we come to

987
00:58:23,400 --> 00:58:26,520
Speaker 1: groups what China really is and what we have to

988
00:58:26,560 --> 00:58:29,880
Speaker 1: do in order to deal with the real China now,

989
00:58:29,880 --> 00:58:32,640
Speaker 1: with the China that we wish existed. And this is

990
00:58:32,680 --> 00:58:35,200
Speaker 1: something I'll come back to again and again because I

991
00:58:35,200 --> 00:58:38,480
Speaker 1: think it is probably the central challenge for our children

992
00:58:38,480 --> 00:58:40,920
Speaker 1: and grandchildren and the kind of world they're going to

993
00:58:41,000 --> 00:58:43,720
Speaker 1: live in and the kind of civilization they're going to inherit.

994
00:58:50,040 --> 00:58:52,920
Speaker 1: Thank you to my guest doctor Jonathan Ward. You can

995
00:58:52,960 --> 00:58:56,040
Speaker 1: read more about China and the Road Ahead, including a

996
00:58:56,120 --> 00:58:59,400
Speaker 1: link to my Newsweek cover story and to doctor Ward's book,

997
00:59:00,000 --> 00:59:03,640
Speaker 1: on our showpage at Newtsworld dot com. News World is

998
00:59:03,680 --> 00:59:08,200
Speaker 1: produced by Westwood One. The executive producers Debbie Myers. Our

999
00:59:08,240 --> 00:59:12,840
Speaker 1: producer is Garnsey Sloan. Our editor is Robert Borowski. Our

1000
00:59:12,880 --> 00:59:16,440
Speaker 1: researcher is Rachel Peterson. The artwork for the show was

1001
00:59:16,560 --> 00:59:21,240
Speaker 1: created by Steve Penley. The music was composed by Joey Salvia.

1002
00:59:21,520 --> 00:59:25,000
Speaker 1: Special thanks the team at Gingwish three sixty and Westwood

1003
00:59:25,000 --> 00:59:29,680
Speaker 1: One's Tim Sabian and Robert Mathers. Please email me with

1004
00:59:29,720 --> 00:59:33,640
Speaker 1: your comments at newt at newtsworld dot com. If you've

1005
00:59:33,640 --> 00:59:36,640
Speaker 1: been enjoying Newtsworld, I hope you'll go to Apple Podcasts

1006
00:59:36,920 --> 00:59:39,680
Speaker 1: and both rate us with five stars and give us

1007
00:59:39,720 --> 00:59:42,680
Speaker 1: a review so others can learn what it's all about.

1008
00:59:44,120 --> 00:59:47,680
Speaker 1: On the next episode of Newtsworld. The Congressional Medal of

1009
00:59:47,720 --> 00:59:51,720
Speaker 1: Honor is the highest award for bravery in combat. From

1010
00:59:51,720 --> 00:59:55,320
Speaker 1: Memorial Day, we'll honor those who served, fought, and died

1011
00:59:55,360 --> 00:59:57,720
Speaker 1: for our country. He was just burned over his whole

1012
00:59:57,720 --> 01:00:00,800
Speaker 1: body and he survived this heaven whos house, but he

1013
01:00:00,920 --> 01:00:06,840
Speaker 1: survived it, and his act was so extraordinary. There's pictures

1014
01:00:06,880 --> 01:00:09,160
Speaker 1: of him lying on a gurney and they rushed his

1015
01:00:09,200 --> 01:00:12,280
Speaker 1: Metal of Honor through the system and they presented it

1016
01:00:12,320 --> 01:00:13,800
Speaker 1: to him because they were afraid he was going to

1017
01:00:13,920 --> 01:00:15,520
Speaker 1: die and they wanted him to receive it while he

1018
01:00:15,560 --> 01:00:18,720
Speaker 1: was still alive. I'm Nut king Ridge. This is News World,

1019
01:00:27,280 --> 01:00:29,120
Speaker 1: the Westwood One podcast network,