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Speaker 1: Hi, This is Kyle Forber and welcome to the Philly Show.

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Speaker 2: Hi, everybody, Rubin Tomorrow Junior, Jim Salisbury, Todd Zulucky. Brought

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Speaker 2: to you by the Foul Territory Network. It's Tuesday, November fifth,

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty four. It's election day. We're not going to

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Speaker 2: talk about the election today, though, we're gonna We're gonna

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Speaker 2: talk some ball. It's been a while since we talked

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Speaker 2: some ball with you guys. How are you guys doing

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Speaker 2: you guys doing good?

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Speaker 3: Doing good?

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Speaker 1: It's GM Meetings time, man, It's when the juices start

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Speaker 1: to blow.

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Speaker 2: This is where Dave Nebrowski's gonna get together with Scott

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Speaker 2: Boris and uh go, what's it gonna take to get

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Speaker 2: us one?

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Speaker 3: So dood Todd, I have a lot, a lot of

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Speaker 3: GM meeting stories, many many, uh, but I'll never forget

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Speaker 3: the year They're in Tucson and the Phillies had some

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Speaker 3: money to and they were going to make It was

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Speaker 3: well known they were making a going to make a

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Speaker 3: big play for Jim Tony and it was just one

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Speaker 3: of those years when not a lot of teams were

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Speaker 3: in a position to spend big. But the Phillies had

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Speaker 3: been budgeting and they were ready to spend big and

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Speaker 3: they were going to go after Tomi but and others.

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Speaker 3: So they had they had some money in their pocket.

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Speaker 3: And a Japanese writer in the lobby went up to

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Speaker 3: Ed Wade at the GM meetings and said, introduced himself

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Speaker 3: and said, you're from the Phillies, the team with all

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Speaker 3: the money.

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Speaker 1: That was int like two thousand and two or something

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Speaker 1: like that too.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it was a long time ago.

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Speaker 1: I remember it well.

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Speaker 3: It was in Tucson, and so the bidding period opened

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Speaker 3: while we were at the GM meetings, and you guys

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Speaker 3: faxed your offer initial offer to Jim Tomy at twelve

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Speaker 3: oh one Eastern, which I think was like nine oh

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Speaker 3: one eastern out there, and I remember writing about it,

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Speaker 3: running around and trying to talk to you guys, and

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Speaker 3: it was an exciting, exciting GM meetings.

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Speaker 1: That's how I learned my aggressiveness through Ed Wait, the

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Speaker 1: man with all the.

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Speaker 2: Money, The man with all the money.

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Speaker 1: I mean really as promised. I mean, the whole deal

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Speaker 1: was at at some point when we could create revenue,

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Speaker 1: which was with the new ballpark, and people didn't believe this, Oh,

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Speaker 1: they'll never spend they'll never spend. Well, we'll spend if

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Speaker 1: we have the revenue to spend, yep. And we were

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Speaker 1: about ready to ramp up to go to the new ballpark,

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Speaker 1: and we knew that we would have some revenue to spend,

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Speaker 1: and we spent before we had it.

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Speaker 3: I'll never forget. I used to have a lot of

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Speaker 3: conversations with Dave Montgomery about payroll, you know, you know,

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Speaker 3: on and off the record for stories I was writing

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Speaker 3: over the years covering the team, and uh, he used

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Speaker 3: to tell me, you know, when when we're in that ballpark,

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Speaker 3: I promise we will have a payroll commensurate with our markets.

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Speaker 1: Boom and he well, I mean, listen. One mistake that

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Speaker 1: Bill Jiles may was saying we're not a big market. Well,

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Speaker 1: we weren't big market as far as revenue. We were

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Speaker 1: obviously a big market because it was Philadelphia. It's, you know,

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Speaker 1: one of the biggest cities in the And I think

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Speaker 1: his sort of his words were sort of miss misinterpreted

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Speaker 1: because we really didn't have the type of revenue that

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Speaker 1: a lot of other truly large market teams had because

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Speaker 1: we couldn't generate it with our stadium and our on

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Speaker 1: our contracts and so when I say contracts, like, you know,

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Speaker 1: this is our stadium is basically owned by the by Philadelphia,

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Speaker 1: and we were sort of leases us and and and

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Speaker 1: the Eagles, and so it made it difficult to to

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Speaker 1: create the sort of revenue that was necessary to be

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Speaker 1: commensurate with the market size until we actually had our

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Speaker 1: own ballpark and could do it.

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Speaker 2: Well, you know, since since that Tony signing, really the

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Speaker 2: Phillies have been top five, top ten and payroll.

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Speaker 1: Other than those lean.

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Speaker 2: Years of like twenty sixteen to twenty nineteen ish before

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Speaker 2: they signed Harper and got JT, so they've been top ten,

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Speaker 2: top five, their top five this year, they're probably they're

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Speaker 2: going to be top five next year. And that kind

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Speaker 2: of leads us to Juan Soto. And we've talked about

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Speaker 2: Wan Soto a lot on the show already. Ruben you said,

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Speaker 2: you said, if the Yankees don't resign Juan Soto, Brian

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Speaker 2: Cashman should be fired. Jim you said, Jim, Jim you said,

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Speaker 2: if the Philly signed Wan Soda, you will eat your shoe?

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Speaker 1: Correct? Do I remember this? Do I remember this correctly? Correctly?

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Speaker 3: I not only said that, I am I'm fully prepared

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Speaker 3: to do it.

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Speaker 2: Oh, that's a nice shoe you got.

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Speaker 1: It looks like a delicious, looks like a blueberry type

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Speaker 1: tasting shoe, fully prepared.

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Speaker 2: So, if you guys sitting here today, there's a lot

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Speaker 2: of talk about probabilities. Of course right again, not talking election,

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Speaker 2: but there's a lot of probabilities.

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Speaker 1: You know, who's going to who's going to lose.

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Speaker 2: If you had to put a probability on Juan Soto

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Speaker 2: signing the Phillies as of today, what percentage would you

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Speaker 2: give it, Reuben, seventeen percent? Seventeen percent? Why seventeen percent?

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Speaker 1: I just pulled that numbers. It's lower than a quarter,

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Speaker 1: lower than a half, higher than a zero. I think

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Speaker 1: seventeen percent is probably my is probably my number. Now,

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Speaker 1: it doesn't mean that it won't be pursued or discosrrect

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Speaker 1: either internally or externally with mister Boris, but you can

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Speaker 1: be sure that mister Boris will utilize the biggest markets

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Speaker 1: to use as a stalking horse to try to move

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Speaker 1: the number and move the needle. So you can be

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Speaker 1: sure that even if the Phillies aren't totally in, or

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Speaker 1: the Chicago Cubs or the Dodgers or whomever, those big money,

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Speaker 1: big markets. Mister Boris will indeed make it sound like

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Speaker 1: everyone's involved.

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Speaker 2: Everyone's involved. Jim, what about you? What what number are

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Speaker 2: you putting on it? Probability wise? What did Ruben putting

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Speaker 2: on at seventeen seventeen seventeen?

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Speaker 3: I'll go eight and a half.

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Speaker 1: Half of that, Okay, I like it.

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Speaker 2: Okay, I was going to say like ten percent, maybe

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Speaker 2: maybe even lower than that. I'm gonna say I'll say nine.

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Speaker 2: I'll say nine percent. Chance they go in and they

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Speaker 2: get one Soto. It's just it's really hard to envision,

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Speaker 2: isn't it.

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Speaker 1: Well, it is I think here. So here's the thing

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Speaker 1: I think, ultimately, the way Scott Boris operates, and he

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Speaker 1: should the way he operates, is that he's going to

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Speaker 1: set a market somehow, someway with this player. Obviously, the

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Speaker 1: total number of dollars at seven hundred million, I guess

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Speaker 1: with Shoheo Tani he may not get to that number,

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Speaker 1: but in some way, either with the length of the

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Speaker 1: contract or the AAV average annual value of the contract,

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Speaker 1: he will do what he can, or the actual value

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Speaker 1: of the contract like today's number on average, He's gonna

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Speaker 1: set a precedent with this player because of the many

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Speaker 1: factors involved. One one of the best hitters of all time,

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Speaker 1: and he's gonna That's how he's gonna market him youngest

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Speaker 1: hitter of all time and a world champion player as well,

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Speaker 1: who's played in all the markets now, Washington, New York,

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Speaker 1: San Diego. He's got all markets covered. Whether it's a

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Speaker 1: small on nerve, medium or a large one, he can

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Speaker 1: handle them all.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, right, agree. He waited, you know, for a Rod

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Speaker 3: to hit the market, and that was gonna move the

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Speaker 3: bar I mean Kevin Brown hit the market. He was

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Speaker 3: a Baris guy. I remember writing a story at the

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Speaker 3: Nashville Winter Meetings one year that you know, baseball has

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Speaker 3: its first hundred, one hundred million dollar man, and that

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Speaker 3: was Kevin Brown. And now I'm like wow. And then

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Speaker 3: you know, next was a Rod Scott Forrest, and then

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Speaker 3: obviously Bryce Harper and now his his next you know,

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Speaker 3: Celestial super Nova is what are you going to call

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Speaker 3: this guy? Juan Soto?

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Speaker 1: What did he get to call him?

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Speaker 3: I agree with you, he's gonna he's gonna sell that.

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Speaker 3: This guy has won a world Series, succeeded in New

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Speaker 3: York on the biggest stage he's going to sell the

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Speaker 3: twenty six years old. And you know when I say

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Speaker 3: I only give to Phillies an eight and a half

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Speaker 3: percent chance of signing him, that's not because I don't

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Speaker 3: expect them to make the call to have the meeting

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Speaker 3: to prepare proposal. You know they're going to be in

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Speaker 3: on all the big name free agents, but push comes

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Speaker 3: to shove. I just don't think their payroll structure is

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Speaker 3: where it needs to be to take on another huge

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Speaker 3: ticket like a trade turner and a Bryce Harper. It

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Speaker 3: look great in to fill his uniform. He certainly help them,

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Speaker 3: but he helped all thirty teams. But in the end,

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Speaker 3: to me, this looks like he's going to the highest bidder.

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Speaker 3: And I see Yankees, Mets giants in it, and maybe

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Speaker 3: the Mets just holding that last trump card to say, okay, gotcha.

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Speaker 2: So you know wan So too. After Game five of

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Speaker 2: the World Series, Jimmy he talked about, you know, he

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Speaker 2: gonna do you want to stay in New York? Do

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Speaker 2: you want to stay Yankee? And he said we are

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Speaker 2: going to be available to every team. I feel like

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Speaker 2: every team has the same opportunity. I don't want to

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Speaker 2: say anybody has the advantage because at the end of

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Speaker 2: the day, we're going to look at what we have

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Speaker 2: and how much they want me. I don't know all

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Speaker 2: the teams that are after me, but I'm definitely open

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Speaker 2: to listen. I don't have any doors closed. I'm available

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Speaker 2: to all thirty teams. That sounds like a guy who's

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Speaker 2: if it's the Padres or a sleeper team or the

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Speaker 2: Yankees of the Mets, if it's the numbers five hundred

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Speaker 2: or six hundred or whatever it ends up being, he's

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Speaker 2: going to take the highest number the bet, the highest

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Speaker 2: aav or the highest overall value of the deal and

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Speaker 2: go to that place. And that's why I think the

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Speaker 2: Phillies are going to be That's why you know under

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Speaker 2: ten percent chance because.

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Speaker 4: Right, yeah, go ahead to no, I was gonna say so,

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Speaker 4: like so, let's so, let's consider the Phillies payroll situation

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Speaker 4: right now. And I want to bear with me, guys,

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Speaker 4: but I want to break this down for luxury tax purposes.

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Speaker 2: There's a fangrafts, cots, contracts, they all break down. They

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Speaker 2: all do future projections and cots, for instance, projects the

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Speaker 2: Phillies twenty twenty five payroll will be two hundred and

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Speaker 2: sixty two million. That's without resigning Jeff Hoffman. That's without

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Speaker 2: resigning Carlos Estevez. That's route acquiring any player via trade

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Speaker 2: or free agency, that's making any little bit of money

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Speaker 2: that would already put him over the second luxury tax threshold.

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Speaker 2: The final number of you know, is figured out a

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Speaker 2: little bit differently. He gets there's like some player benefits. Right,

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Speaker 2: it's a total overall forty man roster. So the number

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Speaker 2: is actually a bit higher than that, but just to

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Speaker 2: keep it simple, it's two sixty two.

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Speaker 1: Okay.

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Speaker 2: So if the Phillies would sign say they would get

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Speaker 2: incredibly lucky and they would sign Juan Soto to a

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Speaker 2: contract where the average annual value is forty one million dollars,

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Speaker 2: so it beats Aaron Judge's forty million, okay. That would

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Speaker 2: push the Phillies payroll to three hundred and three point

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Speaker 2: four million dollars. They would be paying forty three point

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Speaker 2: seven six million dollars in tax penalties because they would

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Speaker 2: be over the fourth luxury tax threshold. It would push

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Speaker 2: their payroll to just under three hundred and fifty million.

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Speaker 2: That's without the extra benefits that actually adds on to

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Speaker 2: that and they would also have their top pick in

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Speaker 2: the draft fall ten spots. So and then so now

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Speaker 2: then you start thinking, well, he's gonna get more. Don't

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Speaker 2: you guys think he's going to get more than forty

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Speaker 2: one million AAV. I think that's low. I think that's low.

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Speaker 2: So say he gets you know, fifty million dollars a year,

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Speaker 2: you know it. You know it's gonna be. It's gonna

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Speaker 2: push the payroll to three hundred and thirty six million.

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Speaker 2: They're gonna pay almost eighty million dollars in tax penalties,

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Speaker 2: and it's gonna bring their overall payment to more than

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Speaker 2: four hundred and fifteen million dollars.

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Speaker 3: That's bullpen.

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Speaker 2: That's without addressing the bullpen. That's without addressing anybody else.

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Speaker 2: You know, Austin Hayes is gonna come off probably. I'm

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Speaker 2: thinking he might be non tendered. So there's you know,

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Speaker 2: there's some moves, but this is just a big picture

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Speaker 2: generally speaking, if you would just sign you know, you know,

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Speaker 2: you know, a A A A one soda. Well, let

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Speaker 2: me say that that that last number I gave you,

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Speaker 2: that would be if if they did sign a relief

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Speaker 2: picture or two. So that's including everybody into that picture

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Speaker 2: would be four hundred you know, uh, over four hundred

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Speaker 2: million dollars. So that's a big number. That's a big number.

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Speaker 2: And now so so they may add.

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Speaker 1: A very unrealistic number, and it gives people a perspective

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Speaker 1: on what the reality of it is. Now, can you

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Speaker 1: trade Castianos and Schwarmer and get this guy? Can you

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Speaker 1: trade uh, you know, Aaron Nola and get this guy?

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Speaker 1: Can you you know, Rob Peter to pay Paul? Yes,

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Speaker 1: but you're you're making your weakending your team. And so

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Speaker 1: he's a great player, and I'd love to have him,

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Speaker 1: and everybody would. But but there's got to be a

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Speaker 1: reality in there somewhere. And I know the ownership group

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Speaker 1: has a bunch of new investors, a bunch of new investors.

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Speaker 1: That does not mean that they're so flushed that they

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Speaker 1: can go to those to those levels. And that's sort

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Speaker 1: of the reality. And I think people need to understand

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Speaker 1: that it would be great to have the player. But

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Speaker 1: I have a totally different take on this. Again, you

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Speaker 1: guys have your take as to why. My take is

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Speaker 1: that there's there's no way in hell that the New

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Speaker 1: York Yankees, if they truly want to be the New

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Speaker 1: York Yankees are going to allow this player to walk,

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Speaker 1: and I think ultimately, even if the Mets and Cohen

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Speaker 1: comes in and a number that's stupid, I do believe

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Speaker 1: that the Yankees will go ahead and be a little

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Speaker 1: stupider because I think or more stupid, and just because

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Speaker 1: it's just too difficult to replace this guy. Imagine where

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Speaker 1: the Yankees would have been had they not had Juan

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Speaker 1: Soto this year. They really probably would not have been

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Speaker 1: a World Series contender, I don't think, and so they

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Speaker 1: have to sort of put themselves in a position to

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Speaker 1: do that, and they have the revenues to be able

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Speaker 1: to match any team, including the Mets.

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Speaker 5: We'll be right back a great deal, but I'm not

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Speaker 5: going to run sprints in the outfield just to save

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Speaker 5: a few bucks. It has to be easy, no hoops obs.

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Speaker 2: Rubin, you mentioned the Boost and Owner are the new

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Speaker 2: owners that they added three new members to the ownership group.

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Speaker 2: And I had the opportunity to talk to John Middleton

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Speaker 2: on Friday about it, and he said they basically brought

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Speaker 2: them in because there's some COVID nineteen pandemic debt that

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Speaker 2: they're still trying to pay down. There's some operating losses

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Speaker 2: they want to take care of. They're trying to invest

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Speaker 2: in this new complex down in Clearwater. A really like reimagine, bigger, better, complex,

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Speaker 2: Citizens Bank Park upgrades capital investments in the future. And

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Speaker 2: I said, well, you know, the one thing that Philly's

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Speaker 2: fans are going to kind of think or hope for

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Speaker 2: is that these three new investors is going to make

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Speaker 2: the payroll maybe a little bit crazier than it already is.

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Speaker 2: And John said, it's hard to go much crazier with

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Speaker 2: the payroll. So that's a little peek into that. And

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Speaker 2: I think also, you know, so you know, he's kind

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Speaker 2: of he kind of said the payrolls it's still a

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Speaker 2: top five payroll, but it doesn't sound like they can

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Speaker 2: unless they would do something dramatic be able.

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Speaker 1: I can see them, I mean, honestly, Todd, I can

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Speaker 1: see them as they have in the past. I mean, listen,

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Speaker 1: this is it is enough money to field a team

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Speaker 1: that should be a contending team, right, And the ownership

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Speaker 1: group is by no means at fault for any you know,

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Speaker 1: things that have happened. It's really about you know, managing

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Speaker 1: you know, all of this money and the payroll, et cetera.

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Speaker 1: So it's you know, the ownership group. If they've done

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Speaker 1: their part, there's no question about it. But there's also

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Speaker 1: a limit to everything, and you know, if you're a

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Speaker 1: human being, and I know that you know John Middleton,

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Speaker 1: he's as big a fan as there is, but he's

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Speaker 1: also a businessman, and at some point, you know, you

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Speaker 1: have to be able to have some level of fiduciary

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Speaker 1: awareness and responsibility and and that's got to be part

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Speaker 1: of the equation as well.

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Speaker 2: So what are the scenarios in which the Phillies hit

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Speaker 2: that eight and a half percent mark Jim, or ten

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Speaker 2: percent mark for me, seventeen percent marked for rum. I

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Speaker 2: think one of them is John just goes, screw it,

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Speaker 2: Let's just do it. Damn the torpedoes. I'm going to bank,

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Speaker 2: you know, you know, mortgage the future of the Phillies

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Speaker 2: and just sign them.

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Speaker 1: Right.

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Speaker 2: That's one of them. The second one is is uh

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Speaker 2: Ruben you mentioned, which is maybe John goes all right,

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Speaker 2: we'll take a run at him, but you have to

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Speaker 2: clear some serious payroll. Now you mentioned Castianos. Could you

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Speaker 2: trade Castianos and dump the forty million dollars that he's

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Speaker 2: out over the next years. I don't know that you

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Speaker 2: could do that. Maybe you could. You can't trade Taiwan Walker.

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Speaker 2: Nobody's taking that contract. So now you're getting into Kyle

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Speaker 2: Schwarber in the last year of his deal, GT Real Muto.

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Speaker 2: You know, if Alvarado, Strom, Christopher Sanchez are all signed

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Speaker 2: through next season and beyond at reasonable numbers, you could

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Speaker 2: trade ARB eligible players like Alec Boem, Bryce and Stott, Ranger, Suarez,

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Speaker 2: Brandon Marsh Could any of those? Could you do you

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Speaker 2: see a scenario where Dave DEBRASKI go all right, yeah,

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Speaker 2: I want I want one Soto. I'm in to like

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Speaker 2: you said, robbing Peter to pay Paul. How realistic is that?

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Speaker 1: Right?

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Speaker 2: And you you would weaken yourself in other spots?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think, you know, I think it would be

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Speaker 3: difficult to move Castianos. I'm not sure you'd find a taker.

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Speaker 3: I mean they tried last winter there was no taker,

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Speaker 3: and you know, he proved to be pretty valuable this year.

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Speaker 3: He had that really good stretch. I mean, you start

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Speaker 3: trading from your core and you're kind of eating away

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Speaker 3: at your muscle, where you know, one guy, you know

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Speaker 3: can't be the whole the whole show. I mean, the

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Speaker 3: reason I gave it eight and a half percent is

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Speaker 3: I would put nothing past John Milton, and I would

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Speaker 3: even extend that to to Dave Dombroski. I would put

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Speaker 3: nothing past Dave Dombroski. I think he is a big

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Speaker 3: game hunter throughout his career. That said, I think they're

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Speaker 3: kind of maxed out on big game on this roster.

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Speaker 3: And I just don't I don't feel it and I

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Speaker 3: don't see it. And I think Dave tipped his hand

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Speaker 3: when he when he said we have a lot of

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Speaker 3: star players already. And I think John has kind of

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Speaker 3: tamped down expectations by saying, you know, the payroll can't

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Speaker 3: get much crazier or whatever he told you, Todd. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: And it's just kind of if you just look at it,

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Speaker 3: it just doesn't it's it's it's not the year for

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Speaker 3: this team to make that big five hundred, you know,

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Speaker 3: million dollar commitment or whatever. It's going to cost maybe

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Speaker 3: another year, a couple of years ago or a few

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Speaker 3: years down the road, but this, at this point, it

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Speaker 3: just doesn't feel like it's the right fit. But I'm

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Speaker 3: sure there'll be in it, like I said, and they'll

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Speaker 3: gauge what it takes. And if he looks them in

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Speaker 3: the audience, says, I really want to be a Philly.

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Speaker 3: I really want to play with Bryce Harper. I really

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Speaker 3: want to play in Citizens Bank and feel it shake.

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Speaker 3: I really want to bring a World Series to to

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Speaker 3: I want to really bring John Middleton's trophy back then.

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Speaker 3: I think at that point you have to get on

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Speaker 3: your airplane and go have a big old board meeting

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Speaker 3: and say he really wants to be here, what do

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Speaker 3: we do to make it happen? But I'm not sure

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Speaker 3: that he's gonna look you in the eye and say that.

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Speaker 3: I think he's gonna have other options, and I just

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Speaker 3: don't feel it.

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Speaker 1: So if you wanted to be super creative, and you know,

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Speaker 1: you know the conspiracy theorists, good time for it, right

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Speaker 1: during the election day. If you really want to go

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Speaker 1: crazy and start thinking of ways to make this happen. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: of course you can couple Aiden Miller, and you can

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Speaker 1: throw in Crawford, and you can throw in Painter, and

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Speaker 1: you can send that team along with Catianos or Schwarber

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Speaker 1: or Taiwan Walker or a couple of those guys. But

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Speaker 1: does that really what you want to do? Is that

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Speaker 1: strengthening your team overall? I mean, so there's ways to

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Speaker 1: do it. I just don't think it's the right I

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Speaker 1: think for the Phillies to do it that way, and

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Speaker 1: I just don't think it's a realistic way to go

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Speaker 1: about it. But if you wanted to go crazy and

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Speaker 1: truly go crazy, and your white whale was Juan Soto,

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Speaker 1: there's ways to do it. I just don't think one

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Speaker 1: that Dave Dombrowski would want to do that and weaken

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Speaker 1: his ball club short term and long term. And I

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Speaker 1: don't think John Middleton would want to do that either.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree, I don't think. I don't think John

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Speaker 2: or Dave had want any part of trading Painter. I

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Speaker 2: mean maybe they would, I could. I could see them

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Speaker 2: trading one of the guys individually, maybe to upgrade at

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Speaker 2: a certain position, like Miller or Crawford or whatever. I

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Speaker 2: don't know if they would trade Painter that. You know,

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Speaker 2: Dave's talking about him being in the rotation midseason, but uh,

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Speaker 2: you know it's something. But yeah, to package all those

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Speaker 2: guys to get rid of some other big salary, then

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Speaker 2: you've like weakened yourself for the future, and now you've

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Speaker 2: got no reinforcements coming in. You're kind of putting yourself

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Speaker 2: in a bad spot. And then you have to throw

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Speaker 2: more money. Now now that you have to throw more

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Speaker 2: money in it if something goes wrong because he don't,

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Speaker 2: you don't have a shortstop or or a number five

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Speaker 2: starter because you don't have Painter anymore, and Enable and

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Speaker 2: McGarry and some of these other guys are struggling, so

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Speaker 2: you kind of box yourself in.

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Speaker 1: I mean, even if, even when you even get more creative,

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Speaker 1: you want to trade trade Turner in this deal and

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Speaker 1: replace that guy. Oh, you know, is that a possibility? Hey,

431
00:23:24,640 --> 00:23:28,280
Speaker 1: you never know. Sounds crazy, but I mean there's ways

432
00:23:28,320 --> 00:23:31,120
Speaker 1: to do these sort of things. I just don't know.

433
00:23:33,560 --> 00:23:35,800
Speaker 1: I just don't know if that's the route that they

434
00:23:35,840 --> 00:23:36,560
Speaker 1: would want to take.

435
00:23:37,160 --> 00:23:41,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, do you think any I mean you're throwing out

436
00:23:41,920 --> 00:23:46,920
Speaker 3: these creative ideas. I mean, trade Turner was nine years left.

437
00:23:47,080 --> 00:23:48,679
Speaker 3: Do you think somebody takes that?

438
00:23:49,600 --> 00:23:52,119
Speaker 1: Somebody who does not get the who's not in the

439
00:23:52,200 --> 00:23:56,360
Speaker 1: one who is in the Juan Soto running? Does atant?

440
00:23:56,440 --> 00:23:59,720
Speaker 1: Do the giants who have trouble signing people, do they

441
00:23:59,720 --> 00:24:02,399
Speaker 1: get a trade turner? Does Buster Posey think that trade

442
00:24:02,440 --> 00:24:05,479
Speaker 1: Turner can really turn there that type of player can

443
00:24:05,560 --> 00:24:10,280
Speaker 1: turn their organization around. You know, again, I'm just throwing

444
00:24:10,640 --> 00:24:13,800
Speaker 1: stuff out there and seeing if it sticks. But you know,

445
00:24:15,040 --> 00:24:19,520
Speaker 1: if Juan Soto becomes the guy, and you can, you know,

446
00:24:19,800 --> 00:24:23,480
Speaker 1: move a contract to bring on a contract, albeit a

447
00:24:23,520 --> 00:24:25,520
Speaker 1: bigger one, because it's gonna be a lot bigger than

448
00:24:25,800 --> 00:24:30,399
Speaker 1: three hundred million more dollars. I mean, there's crazier ways

449
00:24:30,440 --> 00:24:31,560
Speaker 1: to go about it.

450
00:24:31,640 --> 00:24:33,160
Speaker 3: And hey, I.

451
00:24:33,119 --> 00:24:37,960
Speaker 1: Mean, who's to say these things won't happen. It's not

452
00:24:38,040 --> 00:24:41,360
Speaker 1: an impossibility, but I think the probability is pretty low

453
00:24:41,760 --> 00:24:42,520
Speaker 1: this deal.

454
00:24:44,320 --> 00:24:48,160
Speaker 3: Do you agree that I feel like this deal could

455
00:24:48,160 --> 00:24:51,320
Speaker 3: be like twice as much as Bryce Harper they could.

456
00:24:51,560 --> 00:24:53,240
Speaker 1: I think it was. I think it could be, which

457
00:24:53,280 --> 00:24:56,520
Speaker 1: is a crazy thing. It's a crazy notion. So it's

458
00:24:56,560 --> 00:24:57,359
Speaker 1: a crazy notion.

459
00:24:57,800 --> 00:24:59,960
Speaker 3: How many years can you play in that that deep

460
00:25:00,400 --> 00:25:02,120
Speaker 3: when the deep end keeps getting deeper?

461
00:25:02,800 --> 00:25:03,000
Speaker 2: Right?

462
00:25:03,880 --> 00:25:04,280
Speaker 1: Yeah?

463
00:25:04,400 --> 00:25:06,879
Speaker 2: I mean that number is so like O, Tony's what

464
00:25:07,000 --> 00:25:09,040
Speaker 2: seven hundred million, but it's a lot of it's deferred,

465
00:25:09,080 --> 00:25:12,639
Speaker 2: so you know he's gonna and the actual real dollars

466
00:25:12,760 --> 00:25:14,520
Speaker 2: is what like four hundred and fifty million or present

467
00:25:14,600 --> 00:25:15,440
Speaker 2: day value.

468
00:25:15,160 --> 00:25:17,680
Speaker 1: So between four fifteen and five.

469
00:25:17,920 --> 00:25:21,959
Speaker 2: Yeah, And like I said, judges, judge right now behind

470
00:25:22,000 --> 00:25:24,840
Speaker 2: Otani has the second highest AAV for any position player

471
00:25:24,840 --> 00:25:27,480
Speaker 2: at forty million, So he's gonna rocket. I feel like

472
00:25:27,480 --> 00:25:29,000
Speaker 2: he's gonna rock it past that because you're.

473
00:25:29,840 --> 00:25:33,440
Speaker 1: He's gonna go north to that, even if it's one dollar, right,

474
00:25:34,280 --> 00:25:36,879
Speaker 1: even if it's so the so that Scott Boris can

475
00:25:36,920 --> 00:25:39,639
Speaker 1: say he signed the most lucrative you know contract in

476
00:25:39,680 --> 00:25:41,720
Speaker 1: some way, shape or form. That's what's going to happen.

477
00:25:42,160 --> 00:25:44,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I mean, you know the other thing is, like,

478
00:25:44,800 --> 00:25:47,960
Speaker 2: I guess, could Dave Dave Dombrowski try to like sweep

479
00:25:48,000 --> 00:25:49,720
Speaker 2: talk John and say, hey John, by the way, you know,

480
00:25:49,760 --> 00:25:51,320
Speaker 2: some of these guys are coming off the books the

481
00:25:51,320 --> 00:25:54,080
Speaker 2: next few years. You're not gonna have Schwarber. After next season,

482
00:25:54,119 --> 00:25:56,560
Speaker 2: you might not have real Muto. So we why don't

483
00:25:56,560 --> 00:25:58,920
Speaker 2: we just eat it for one year, pay a massive

484
00:25:58,920 --> 00:26:02,320
Speaker 2: penalty and well, some of these guys are going to

485
00:26:02,359 --> 00:26:04,720
Speaker 2: fall by the wayside. We'll just let Schwarber walk away.

486
00:26:05,240 --> 00:26:08,479
Speaker 2: You know, maybe we can find a replacement level catcher

487
00:26:08,480 --> 00:26:11,280
Speaker 2: to replace j T. You know, maybe pair this guy

488
00:26:11,320 --> 00:26:15,240
Speaker 2: with Raphael Marshaan. Uh, you know, trying to think who

489
00:26:15,240 --> 00:26:16,720
Speaker 2: else is coming, you know, a couple of years, you know,

490
00:26:16,800 --> 00:26:19,760
Speaker 2: Suarez as a free agent, let him go because we

491
00:26:19,760 --> 00:26:21,760
Speaker 2: think Painter and maybe a couple of these prospects are

492
00:26:21,760 --> 00:26:23,720
Speaker 2: going to pan out. Could he could you go into

493
00:26:24,480 --> 00:26:26,520
Speaker 2: his office and make a pitch like that?

494
00:26:27,119 --> 00:26:29,440
Speaker 1: I mean.

495
00:26:30,280 --> 00:26:31,480
Speaker 2: Long shot options?

496
00:26:31,760 --> 00:26:34,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean you could, Todd. I mean it really

497
00:26:34,160 --> 00:26:38,399
Speaker 1: depends on how important you think Soto becomes and what

498
00:26:38,440 --> 00:26:43,600
Speaker 1: he can bring to the table. It could be a pitch.

499
00:26:43,800 --> 00:26:47,560
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, it's not unrealistic, it's not a total,

500
00:26:48,359 --> 00:26:49,679
Speaker 1: you know, non starter.

501
00:26:49,840 --> 00:26:53,520
Speaker 3: But I can only make that pitch, you know, going

502
00:26:53,560 --> 00:26:56,080
Speaker 3: to if I'm the GM, going to John and say here,

503
00:26:57,040 --> 00:26:58,800
Speaker 3: if Wan Soda looks me in the eye and says,

504
00:26:58,800 --> 00:27:01,480
Speaker 3: I'm not talking to anybody else, here's my number. I

505
00:27:01,520 --> 00:27:03,919
Speaker 3: want to be a Philly. You got forty eight hours.

506
00:27:03,960 --> 00:27:07,080
Speaker 3: That's the only way that I think I think the

507
00:27:07,080 --> 00:27:11,399
Speaker 3: Phillies would have that conversation and attempt to do the

508
00:27:11,480 --> 00:27:14,560
Speaker 3: creative maneuvering that it would take to make this happen.

509
00:27:15,240 --> 00:27:19,720
Speaker 1: You would almost also be able to say, Okay, this

510
00:27:19,760 --> 00:27:21,760
Speaker 1: is the number. It's going to be five hundred and

511
00:27:21,760 --> 00:27:25,919
Speaker 1: twenty six million dollars and are you willing to pay it?

512
00:27:26,520 --> 00:27:29,080
Speaker 1: Are you willing to take John Middleton? And are you

513
00:27:29,200 --> 00:27:32,840
Speaker 1: willing to take it? Twan Soto and then we try

514
00:27:32,880 --> 00:27:36,879
Speaker 1: to do all the macinations or machinations that you would

515
00:27:36,920 --> 00:27:40,919
Speaker 1: want to make to have it happen. Then that that

516
00:27:41,080 --> 00:27:43,399
Speaker 1: is a I mean, that could be a possibility, but

517
00:27:43,640 --> 00:27:45,520
Speaker 1: again not all that realistic.

518
00:27:45,880 --> 00:27:48,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, Jim you mentioned you know you want one

519
00:27:48,440 --> 00:27:50,320
Speaker 2: soda looking in the eye and say I want to

520
00:27:50,359 --> 00:27:54,119
Speaker 2: be a Philadelphia Philly Ruben. You had a similar situation

521
00:27:54,359 --> 00:27:57,880
Speaker 2: with Cliff Lee in the in The Winner of twenty ten,

522
00:27:58,440 --> 00:28:01,720
Speaker 2: he came to you guys and said, I don't want

523
00:28:01,840 --> 00:28:04,120
Speaker 2: I want to come back to Philadelphia. I don't want

524
00:28:04,119 --> 00:28:05,480
Speaker 2: to go to the Yankees, I don't want to stay

525
00:28:05,520 --> 00:28:07,920
Speaker 2: in Texas. And so you pull out the heavy machinery,

526
00:28:07,960 --> 00:28:10,680
Speaker 2: didn't you didn't you have talked to Pat Gillick, and

527
00:28:10,720 --> 00:28:12,680
Speaker 2: didn't Pat go to David Montgomery? And then I remember

528
00:28:12,720 --> 00:28:15,439
Speaker 2: Scott Profrock, your assistant GM at the time, were to

529
00:28:15,480 --> 00:28:18,399
Speaker 2: memo to David Montgomery saying, you know, explaining why this

530
00:28:18,440 --> 00:28:21,560
Speaker 2: would mean everything to Philadelphia and all this stuff. So

531
00:28:22,119 --> 00:28:25,160
Speaker 2: you guys kind of sweet talked David into going over.

532
00:28:25,640 --> 00:28:28,760
Speaker 2: But the money was different then, I guess I think

533
00:28:28,760 --> 00:28:29,399
Speaker 2: you're only at it.

534
00:28:29,359 --> 00:28:32,440
Speaker 3: At five million is a lot different, right, right?

535
00:28:32,560 --> 00:28:34,560
Speaker 2: No, I know, I know, I know it was a.

536
00:28:34,480 --> 00:28:37,000
Speaker 1: Little it was obviously very different. But yeah, I mean,

537
00:28:38,160 --> 00:28:40,600
Speaker 1: anytime you have a player who really wants to come

538
00:28:40,640 --> 00:28:43,480
Speaker 1: there and you can trust him that he does, that

539
00:28:43,640 --> 00:28:47,280
Speaker 1: makes a huge difference. That's it. I mean, you heard

540
00:28:47,280 --> 00:28:49,880
Speaker 1: it right from the horse's mouth. He's opened to all

541
00:28:49,920 --> 00:28:54,240
Speaker 1: thirty teams and so nobody has nobody has the break,

542
00:28:54,680 --> 00:28:59,480
Speaker 1: you know, nobody's nobody's got the inside track, and it

543
00:28:59,600 --> 00:29:01,920
Speaker 1: just sounds like it's going to be one of those

544
00:29:02,480 --> 00:29:04,600
Speaker 1: The team that has the inside track is a team

545
00:29:04,640 --> 00:29:06,320
Speaker 1: that's come up with the most glue.

546
00:29:07,840 --> 00:29:10,520
Speaker 2: And again Dave Dombrowski said last month, I don't think

547
00:29:10,520 --> 00:29:15,120
Speaker 2: we need to have more star players. And obviously a

548
00:29:15,200 --> 00:29:18,400
Speaker 2: lot of times GMS will say stuff President Baseball operations

549
00:29:18,440 --> 00:29:20,240
Speaker 2: will stay stuff because they want to tip their hand,

550
00:29:20,800 --> 00:29:23,720
Speaker 2: but it doesn't sound like somebody who's really going for it,

551
00:29:24,120 --> 00:29:26,160
Speaker 2: or you know, feels like he needs to drop five

552
00:29:26,240 --> 00:29:30,920
Speaker 2: hundy on somebody to push him over the top. Five

553
00:29:31,000 --> 00:29:35,120
Speaker 2: hundred million dollars million dollars. So people are gonna think

554
00:29:35,120 --> 00:29:37,160
Speaker 2: we're debe a bunch of Debbie downars today because we're

555
00:29:37,240 --> 00:29:39,760
Speaker 2: kind of dumping on the chances of one. So to

556
00:29:39,760 --> 00:29:41,800
Speaker 2: believe me, I would love to see the Phillies sign

557
00:29:41,840 --> 00:29:46,400
Speaker 2: wants so I think it would be tremendous. Dude, Yeah,

558
00:29:46,480 --> 00:29:50,680
Speaker 2: exactly right, exactly. We're just saying I think, if I'm

559
00:29:50,720 --> 00:29:53,400
Speaker 2: reading everything correctly, that we don't think there's a lot

560
00:29:53,440 --> 00:29:57,080
Speaker 2: of reasons why it's less likely to happen, then will happen.

561
00:29:57,200 --> 00:29:59,960
Speaker 2: The Phillies will pursue them. They're going to talk to Scott.

562
00:30:00,320 --> 00:30:02,440
Speaker 2: Scott's gonna be on the phone with Dave. He's going

563
00:30:02,520 --> 00:30:04,920
Speaker 2: to be on the phone with John. He's going to

564
00:30:05,000 --> 00:30:09,000
Speaker 2: try to get them going right, guys, and he's going

565
00:30:09,080 --> 00:30:11,040
Speaker 2: to try to, you know, keep the Phillies in it

566
00:30:11,080 --> 00:30:13,360
Speaker 2: as long as humanly possible. No matter what Dave or

567
00:30:13,440 --> 00:30:16,560
Speaker 2: John might say publicly, they're gonna you're gonna see little

568
00:30:16,560 --> 00:30:20,240
Speaker 2: reports until jan signs that the Phillies are still. Don't

569
00:30:20,280 --> 00:30:24,160
Speaker 2: don't cut out the Phillies. They're al there's all stubor marining.

570
00:30:24,200 --> 00:30:26,720
Speaker 2: That was one of Scott's. That was my first Winter meetings,

571
00:30:27,240 --> 00:30:29,640
Speaker 2: Winter Meetings of two thousand and three in New Orleans.

572
00:30:30,400 --> 00:30:32,680
Speaker 2: Kevin Millwood was a free agent. There was no buzz

573
00:30:32,680 --> 00:30:35,080
Speaker 2: about them at all at the Winter Meetings, and that's

574
00:30:35,120 --> 00:30:39,400
Speaker 2: when Scott said he it's the ultimate submarine race and

575
00:30:39,440 --> 00:30:42,200
Speaker 2: then a few months later he accepted salary arbitration. Right

576
00:30:42,320 --> 00:30:44,760
Speaker 2: or shortly thereafter. He accepted the salary arbitration because he

577
00:30:44,800 --> 00:30:49,760
Speaker 2: got in a good offer. So anyway, all right, well

578
00:30:50,240 --> 00:30:55,600
Speaker 2: I think we banged that one soda pretty good when

579
00:30:57,080 --> 00:31:02,360
Speaker 2: well we miss we we missed the World Series prediction.

580
00:31:02,640 --> 00:31:05,360
Speaker 2: We miss fired on the NLDS prediction. So you know, yeah,

581
00:31:06,200 --> 00:31:08,880
Speaker 2: let's prepare for the one. Yeah, maybe we'll miss on this,

582
00:31:10,600 --> 00:31:13,440
Speaker 2: but we'll be back later this week. If you guys

583
00:31:13,480 --> 00:31:17,080
Speaker 2: have any questions for us, drop them on Twitter or

584
00:31:17,400 --> 00:31:21,480
Speaker 2: x Instagram, you know, put them in the comments on YouTube.

585
00:31:21,840 --> 00:31:23,200
Speaker 2: We'll get into We're going to get into a lot

586
00:31:23,240 --> 00:31:25,600
Speaker 2: more hot stove stuff, free agents. Maybe the Philly should

587
00:31:25,600 --> 00:31:29,120
Speaker 2: pursue trade targets. Maybe that the Philly should pursue and

588
00:31:29,440 --> 00:31:32,600
Speaker 2: you know we'd be doing that all winter. So guys,

589
00:31:33,400 --> 00:31:34,160
Speaker 2: we'll see you later.

590
00:31:35,000 --> 00:31:37,680
Speaker 3: Smell a little boys, Jim.

591
00:31:37,840 --> 00:31:40,040
Speaker 2: The Philly Show is brought to you by the Foul

592
00:31:40,160 --> 00:31:43,400
Speaker 2: Territory Network. Subscribe to The Philly Show on YouTube and

593
00:31:43,440 --> 00:31:46,600
Speaker 2: wherever you get your podcasts. If you like us, give

594
00:31:46,680 --> 00:31:50,600
Speaker 2: us a review, follow us on Instagram, TikTok x, Facebook,

595
00:31:50,640 --> 00:31:54,360
Speaker 2: and threads. Find Rubens analysis before, during, and after Phillies

596
00:31:54,400 --> 00:31:57,920
Speaker 2: games on NBC Sports Philadelphia, on the Sports Radio ninety four,

597
00:31:58,000 --> 00:32:01,800
Speaker 2: WIP Morning Show, and MLB Network. Find Jim at all

598
00:32:01,920 --> 00:32:05,120
Speaker 2: pH l y dot com. Find me at MLB dot com,

599
00:32:05,120 --> 00:32:07,560
Speaker 2: the Phillies Beat newsletter, and MLB Network