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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go throwing spect We're saying it's

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Speaker 2: a cash touchdowns.

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Speaker 1: We see most gamble is when they go to gamble,

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Speaker 1: they go to twin. That's incredible.

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Speaker 2: Being bank small banks, I like to make money.

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Speaker 1: All right, this is the ultimate combine and you want

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Speaker 1: to and we are underway.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented by DraftKings. I'm

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Speaker 2: your host, Evan Abrams and I'm joined by Brandon Anderson

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Speaker 2: for NFL recap show. We will discuss everything we saw

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Speaker 2: today and look ahead briefly to Monday Night football, which

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Speaker 2: is absolutely goddamn incredible. This week Eagles Packers gonna be fantastic.

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Speaker 2: We'll also get Brandon's hot read for next week, so

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Speaker 2: get an early line, get a jump on week eleven. Now,

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Speaker 2: before we get started, I just wanted to give you

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Speaker 2: my stat of the day. Now. This is just so

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Speaker 2: cool because it's kind of based off of the results

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Speaker 2: of today, because without today, the stat doesn't come true.

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Speaker 2: But next week's game, and it's funny that I'm kind

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Speaker 2: of bringing up something to look forward to next week

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Speaker 2: when we have this Monday night football game on tap.

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Speaker 2: But Seattle and the Rams next week has set up

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Speaker 2: to be actually an amazing game we haven't seen in

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Speaker 2: a long time, so the Rams last time I looked

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Speaker 2: minus two and a half forty eight and a half,

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Speaker 2: but both teams seven and two against the spread and

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Speaker 2: seven and two straight up going into this game, both

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Speaker 2: at over seventy seven percent. Now we end both both

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Speaker 2: teams on four games straight up in ATS win streaks,

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Speaker 2: so hot as can be. Great records, great cover records,

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Speaker 2: and the ATS best in the NFL for both teams.

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Speaker 2: So really could not be hotter and cannot be a

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Speaker 2: better matchup now going back in game ten or late,

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Speaker 2: I couldn't find another matchup of two teams seventy seven

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Speaker 2: percent straight up plus seventy seven percent plus ATS so

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Speaker 2: on both sides facing each other since the Super Bowl

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Speaker 2: in nineteen eighty three. Dolphins and Commanders are Commanders, Redskins, Washington,

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Speaker 2: whatever you want to make it, don Shula, Joe Gibbs

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Speaker 2: last time game ten or later, seventy seven percent straight up,

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Speaker 2: seventy seven percent against the spread. That game on deck

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Speaker 2: for next week with the NFC West and everything you

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Speaker 2: want to make it. But pretty awesome to have that

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Speaker 2: matchup kind of on deck stat I just found, so

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Speaker 2: I will be looking into that more. It'll be in

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Speaker 2: the primer this week. But Brandon, based off of everything

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Speaker 2: you saw today, and you know, Sunday Night football is

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Speaker 2: what it is, and we've got an amazing Monday night

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Speaker 2: football game and this one on deck which I'm now

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Speaker 2: really looking forward to giving the matchups and what Stafford's

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Speaker 2: done and Darnold, which we'll talk about a little bit later,

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Speaker 2: but talk to me about week ten.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that's crazy. Super Bowl in nineteen eighty three, that's

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Speaker 3: like a few months before I was born. That's my

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Speaker 3: entire lifetime of it not happening before we get that.

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Speaker 3: We keep every week or two where like it's the

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Speaker 3: game of the year, and I know, like that's content,

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Speaker 3: like that's the thing that we have to do and say,

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Speaker 3: but it feels like it every time, like we had

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Speaker 3: Chiefs Bills and we're like, all right, yeah, but but

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Speaker 3: next week we got Monday Night Packers Eagles. It's the

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Speaker 3: class of the NFC. Well, we want to had that

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Speaker 3: game and the new class of the NFC game is

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Speaker 3: a week from now.

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Speaker 1: This game.

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Speaker 3: Of course, it's a division game, so we will get

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Speaker 3: I think actually the ram Seahawks second game is a

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Speaker 3: Thursday night game in December, so a rare, really really

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Speaker 3: important Thursday night game that you'll want to actually like

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Speaker 3: set aside some calendar time for rather than Broncos Raiders

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Speaker 3: like last week. So I'll say this, Broncos Raiders Thursday

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Speaker 3: night turned out to be a pretty good preview of

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Speaker 3: what Sunday was gonna feel like. Like we started out

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Speaker 3: with a really fun game. I thought it was probably

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Speaker 3: our best international game of the season. This morning it

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Speaker 3: went to overtime, and then the games slowly got progressively worse.

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Speaker 3: We got a lot of fun, kind of weird comebacks

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Speaker 3: and a couple upsets and early window and then like

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Speaker 3: the late window, we had like one quarter in and

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Speaker 3: all the games were done already basically, and the game

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Speaker 3: tonight it felt like it never really got going for Pittsburgh.

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Speaker 3: So we will probably today end up talking I'm guessing

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Speaker 3: a little bit less about some of the games themselves,

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Speaker 3: a little bit more at times about Okay, what's a

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Speaker 3: mean for Pittsburgh? Now, what's the mean for the Chargers?

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Speaker 3: What about the Bills? Like we're halfway through the season, now,

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Speaker 3: this is the start of the second half. What are

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Speaker 3: we looking at. We're in November. Where do the futures

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Speaker 3: line up? What's the MVP race look like? So I

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Speaker 3: think today.

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Speaker 1: Kind of sets us up well for some of those conversations.

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Speaker 2: And let's just get right into it. Sunday Night Football,

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Speaker 2: Chargers win twenty five to ten. They cover minus three

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Speaker 2: at home. Total goes under forty five and a half. Listen,

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Speaker 2: I don't have a ton on this game. I watched

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Speaker 2: it while kind of prepping for the other games, and

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Speaker 2: every time I looked up, the Steelers weren't doing anything.

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Speaker 2: Rogers looked pissed at all of his wide receivers. Tomlin

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Speaker 2: looked frustrated with different faces. But I mean inside the stats,

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Speaker 2: Rogers is fifteen in completions, two interceptions, like a fifty

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Speaker 2: passer rating. Steelers were dropping balls all over the place,

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Speaker 2: and when they weren't dropping them, they were going into

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Speaker 2: the Chargers' hens. So to me, it just looked like

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Speaker 2: a game that Pittsburgh didn't look on the ball the

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Speaker 2: entire time. If defensively they played all right. I mean,

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Speaker 2: Vidal played pretty well in terms of a run game

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Speaker 2: for the Chargers, which I was kind of skeptical of

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Speaker 2: when I was handicapping the game myself in terms of

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Speaker 2: the offensive line from the Chargers side, but see didn't

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Speaker 2: seem to have too much of an issue. I actually

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Speaker 2: didn't check this to Herbert get hit a ton Did

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Speaker 2: he get sacked a lot?

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Speaker 3: I don't think he got hit a few times early.

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Speaker 3: He even was like, I don't think he went to

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Speaker 3: the tent. But they're kind of, you know, taping his ankle.

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Speaker 3: They kept talking early in the first half, like the

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Speaker 3: Steelers want making it clear they want to hit him

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Speaker 3: early and often, and so I feel like they were

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Speaker 3: coming after. I thought Pittsburgh's defense honestly was fine in

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Speaker 3: this game. Like they gave up the big mcconkee pass

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Speaker 3: late in the game. At that point, I feel like

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Speaker 3: it's probably already done. Like I think it was eighteen

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Speaker 3: to three at that point, and it was pretty clear

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Speaker 3: the Steelers were never gonna get to eighteen points tonight,

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Speaker 3: So that play ended up being somewhat irrelevant. But yeah,

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Speaker 3: they got to him a few times. They got some

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Speaker 3: hits on him. That Chargers line that we know, we

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Speaker 3: talked about, that was a big part of I was

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Speaker 3: on Steelers in this game, and it did not go well.

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Speaker 1: For me here.

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Speaker 3: But the only real note I had about the game is,

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Speaker 3: I think all you need to know about this game

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Speaker 3: is the Steelers get a long touchdown drive late in

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Speaker 3: the game to like ostensibly still sort of keep the

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Speaker 3: game alive. And the Chargers are so unbothered that the

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Speaker 3: first play after a long Steelers touchdown drive, they designed

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Speaker 3: a pop pass to Keenan Allen so you can set

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Speaker 3: the Chargers all time franchise record for receptions. That's how

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Speaker 3: unbothered they were by Pittsburgh's offense. And they like did

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Speaker 3: the play and all celebrated, and then we're like, oh, right,

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Speaker 3: there's still three minutes left, let's run the clock out.

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Speaker 3: Oh first down, first down, game over. Like that was

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Speaker 3: the game tonight. That's the recap. Here's my takeaway from

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Speaker 3: the game, Evan, was that big picture?

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Speaker 1: Big picture?

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Speaker 3: Right now? There are now fourteen teams in the NFL

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Speaker 3: with playoff odds at minus three hundred or shorter fourteen.

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Speaker 1: Evan, how many teams make the playoffs in the NFL?

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Speaker 2: You tell me it's I mean, I but I think

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Speaker 2: those are like, I think those odds kind of represent

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Speaker 2: what like the pedigree of some of the names on

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Speaker 2: those teams, and I think that's why that's why the

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Speaker 2: and I think that's why the odds and I have

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Speaker 2: these as some of the notes going forward with some

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Speaker 2: of these games. That's why I think there's some value

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Speaker 2: in some nose. But I think, you know, some people

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Speaker 2: may not agree with me, but continue, Yeah.

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Speaker 3: Well it's it's it's fourteen. That's the odds on the

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Speaker 3: basically telling us we've got our field and like that.

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Speaker 1: There's there's no.

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Speaker 3: World where we've ever had the entire playoff field one

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Speaker 3: Sunday into November where so far out, so much can happen.

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Speaker 3: But I think Pittsburgh is a really good example of that.

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Speaker 3: The Steelers are now five and four. We know that

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Speaker 3: it's like minus a billion that they're going to finish

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Speaker 3: above five hundred, because that's the Tomlin stat But five

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Speaker 3: and four, for all the stuff with the Steelers and

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Speaker 3: everything with the Ravens, which we'll get to them, they're

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Speaker 3: only one game up now on Baltimore and they've basically

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Speaker 3: been left for dead. We know that the Ravens Odds

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Speaker 3: never really nuked because even at two and five there

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Speaker 3: were still co favorites or favorites to win the Division.

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Speaker 1: Well, now they're overwhelming.

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Speaker 3: Favorites to win the division, Steelers five and four. They

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Speaker 3: get the Bengals and the Bears, so maybe winnable games.

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Speaker 1: We'll see no.

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Speaker 3: Certainty with the Steelers, but then they still play the Bills.

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Speaker 3: After that, they still play the Lions, and they play

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Speaker 3: both Baltimore games. So I don't think that they're dead.

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Speaker 3: All they could They could just win those two Ravens

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Speaker 3: games and almost nothing else and they would still probably

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Speaker 3: win the division. And it's Steelers Ravens. They're always going

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Speaker 3: to get one of those games, right Like we love

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Speaker 3: the raw ra spot, we love the underdog in those matchups,

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Speaker 3: they'll be the underdog. I don't know, it's I thought

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Speaker 3: the Chargers were a team to maybe fall out of

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Speaker 3: the picture. Perhaps they still are, but what happened in

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Speaker 3: today's games largely was not just like the upsets that happened.

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Speaker 3: It made it so that the haves and haves not

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Speaker 3: got even a wider like the Chargers were good example

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Speaker 3: of they were a team I thought maybe would slide

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Speaker 3: a little bit, but this is a really big win

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Speaker 3: for them. They're now in a really strong positioning and

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Speaker 3: the Jaguars lost and the Steelers lost in this game,

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Speaker 3: so it's a head to have spot that sets up

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Speaker 3: Chargers against Steelers if they need it later on in

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Speaker 3: like a wild card race. We're just seeing real separation now.

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Speaker 3: So the question is, Okay, I agree with you, there's

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Speaker 3: got to be value in some of the no odds,

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Speaker 3: but who is it? Is someone going to fall or

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Speaker 3: is it just like, well, their quarterback got hurt and

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Speaker 3: so they ended up losing a few games and we

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Speaker 3: went from there. It's gonna be a tough race to

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Speaker 3: cap and figure out do you pick the team that's

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Speaker 3: gonna lose out because if it's just a big injury,

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Speaker 3: that's hard to predict or impossible. Really, maybe you need

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Speaker 3: to pick the team that's gonna move in. Who's the

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Speaker 3: underdog that's gonna make the run and take the spot away.

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Speaker 3: Maybe that's a better angle, but it's it's a strange

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Speaker 3: picture this early in the year to feel that certain.

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Speaker 2: I think the focus on Pittsburgh at least for this game,

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Speaker 2: since I mean, Chargers, you know, did enough on both

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Speaker 2: sides of the ball where you know, for at least

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Speaker 2: ten minutes you don't talk about the offensive line injuries

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Speaker 2: and everything feels like it's kind of on track. While

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Speaker 2: Pittsburgh's plus one point eighty to make the playoffs at

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Speaker 2: the moment, they faced Cincinnati, Chicago, and Buffalo the next

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Speaker 2: three weeks, and if you're gonna score three points, eight points,

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Speaker 2: ten points, or twelve points, you're not gonna beat any

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Speaker 2: of those three teams. And so I really believe at

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Speaker 2: this point it's you know, and right now you look

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Speaker 2: at their win total live eight and a half. So

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Speaker 2: the question is, once again, every single week, every time

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Speaker 2: we do this, will they finish over five hundred or

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Speaker 2: will they not? And everyone assumes yes. But things seem

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Speaker 2: to be headed in like they can never put both

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Speaker 2: sides of the ball together in the same game. And

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Speaker 2: sometimes the offense looks great, Aaron's happy, he's you know,

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Speaker 2: hates the defense, and then all of a sudden, the

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Speaker 2: defense plays well and he's putting up three points in

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Speaker 2: mad because everyone drops the ball. And I just don't

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Speaker 2: know what to make of it other than Baltimore's coming

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Speaker 2: and we're gonna talk about in a second. But they

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Speaker 2: seem to be just fine, getting healthier, while Pittsburgh seems

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Speaker 2: to be fumbling games away, and you know, just it's

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Speaker 2: not like they should have won this game. They were

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Speaker 2: an underdog, but it shouldn't have been over in the

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Speaker 2: first quarter.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, it seemed like the Steelers were playing

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Speaker 3: really well and playing very Steelers under tomlin RAS's style,

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Speaker 3: and it really felt like it swung on that Rogers

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Speaker 3: safety when he just kind of Aaron Rodgers just looked

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Speaker 3: like old man Rogers tonight, like can't you can't hold

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Speaker 3: the ball for like seven seconds in the end zone

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Speaker 3: and there was a shot where kind of got away

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Speaker 3: and could throw it away and then he was like, oh,

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Speaker 3: maybe I'll make a play now, and like took another step,

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Speaker 3: but then it was just done. The almost could have

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Speaker 3: turned into a touchdown it had been over even faster then.

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Speaker 3: But it just felt like there were plays today where like,

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Speaker 3: I don't know that we've often in two decades watching

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Speaker 3: Aaron Rodgers seen him just get figured out, and it

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Speaker 3: felt like the Chargers just had a plan and had

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Speaker 3: Rogers found out in this game, which is just a

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Speaker 3: weird thing to see. And yeah, it's it's certainly certainly

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Speaker 3: early in the year, it was like, all right, the

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Speaker 3: Steelers needed a quarterback, they got the defense, we just

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Speaker 3: need some offense, and it was the opposite. The offense

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Speaker 3: was doing pretty well, but the defense was terrible. Now

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Speaker 3: it feels like the defense is kind of stepped up

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Speaker 3: and figuring some out and the offense is disappearing. And

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Speaker 3: that's kind of how you get to a wind total

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Speaker 3: right at five hundred. So if you're watching live on

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Speaker 3: YouTube or on Twitter, hit us in the comments.

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Speaker 1: Who's your long shot.

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Speaker 3: Who's the plus odds team that's gonna make the playoffs?

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Speaker 3: Who's the minus odds team that's gonna fall out? Is

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Speaker 3: it Pittsburgh's still getting in? Is it the Chargers still

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Speaker 3: falling out? You know, we love our long shots. I'm

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Speaker 3: curious what people think. I think it's very open right now.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, for anyone watching the broadcast a Sunday night football

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Speaker 2: who saw every time Cameron Dicker hit a field goal,

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Speaker 2: Harball looked like he was, you know, the best joy

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Speaker 2: of his entire life, Like he was having almost an orgasm.

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Speaker 2: It looked like every time Cameron Dicker got a field goal,

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Speaker 2: it was because they couldn't score on the other side.

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Speaker 2: I mean, he knew every field goal was almost a touchdown,

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Speaker 2: And that's what it felt like in this one. All right,

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Speaker 2: let's keep rolling here. Patriots and Bucks probably the other best.

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Speaker 2: You know, a lot of really good games on tap.

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Speaker 2: I feel like between last week, this week, and next week,

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Speaker 2: this was definitely one of them, and it lived up

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Speaker 2: to the bill. So the Patriots won the game twenty

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Speaker 2: eight twenty three, two and a half point underdogs. The

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Speaker 2: total goes over forty eight and a half. I mean,

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Speaker 2: we're going to talk about this further when we get

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Speaker 2: to the Rams game at the end, because we kind

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Speaker 2: of want to save the conversation. But at the moment,

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Speaker 2: Drake May now the co favorite to an MVP with

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Speaker 2: Matthew Stafford. I mean, everything he did in this game,

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Speaker 2: aside from one thing I have, I really just have

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Speaker 2: beef with one play. So it's a good and bad

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Speaker 2: of Drake May. But it all happened in one drive.

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Speaker 2: So he has the fifty fifty four yard pass to

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Speaker 2: Mac Hollins in the fourth it was beautiful, truly a

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Speaker 2: great down the field throw. Then five plays later, third

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Speaker 2: and goal looking for Hollinds, it's a disaster throwing that interception,

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Speaker 2: leaving points on the board, only being up twenty one

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Speaker 2: to sixteen. It was literally when that happened. I said

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Speaker 2: to myself, that is the play that a person who

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Speaker 2: you know, top three favorite, whatever you want to call it,

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Speaker 2: can't make. Like we would be killing pat we would

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Speaker 2: be killing Josh, especially after like that throw all in

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Speaker 2: the same drive felt very roller coasterie. But that's that's

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Speaker 2: my opinion. I mean, Drake May completions of nineteen, twenty six,

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Speaker 2: fifty four, and seventy two in this game. I mean,

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Speaker 2: he did everything like usual, but man, that throw is frustrating.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I'd forgotten about that throw. But that's a good

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Speaker 3: point because outside of that throw, this really is your

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Speaker 3: MVP game for Drake May. Like Booty is out, the

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Speaker 3: go to guy really has. He's become at least down

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Speaker 3: the field, and downfield is where the Patriots have been

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Speaker 3: so deadly.

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Speaker 1: So what's Drake May do?

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Speaker 3: Throws seventy two yard touchdown to Kyle Williams, the rookie

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Speaker 3: of that like we've seen nothing from all year. He

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Speaker 3: throws one hundred yards to mac Hollins, like just like

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Speaker 3: the half tight end, blocking dude down to the end

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Speaker 3: of the bench. They's just been journeyman around the NFL

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Speaker 3: for a while. That is what an MVP does is

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Speaker 3: goes out and leads his team and leads them to

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Speaker 3: the top of the division. Now they're a game clear

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Speaker 3: of Buffalo after the Bills, you know, pretty surprising division

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Speaker 3: loss that that's gonna be a big deal for them.

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Speaker 1: So it's interesting.

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Speaker 3: Because I thought to me, this was not as dominant

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Speaker 3: a performance about the Patriots as you would think, Like

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Speaker 3: they went on the road, they went to Tampa, they

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Speaker 3: got the win, but it was really just like a

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Speaker 3: handful of really big plays and it was right around

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Speaker 3: both sides a halftime that really swung the game. So

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Speaker 3: the other the big talking point in this one is

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Speaker 3: they get down first in goal on like the one

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Speaker 3: yard line under two minutes right before halftime, and Mike

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Speaker 3: Rabel has Drake may basically take a knee, like he

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Speaker 3: just runs into the ground on purpose to burn it

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Speaker 3: down to burn time because they wanted the Bucks to

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Speaker 3: not get the ball back. Now that's real respect for

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Speaker 3: Baker Mayfield, but it's also giving up a down and

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Speaker 3: they did not score in second down or third down,

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Speaker 3: then had to go forward on fourth with like five

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Speaker 3: seconds left, which was the plan they wanted to use

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Speaker 3: up the clock. They got it, but man talk about

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Speaker 3: us getting on somebody's case if they don't make the play.

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Speaker 3: The drake maythrow. Mike Rable's getting killed right now. If

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Speaker 3: he just takes a knee and goes on fourth down

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Speaker 3: and doesn't get that score, they get it. Then they

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Speaker 3: come out after halftime, get the ball back. And I

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Speaker 3: think in like the second play, Traveon Henderson has a

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Speaker 3: long touchdown. So now you have, in like a one

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Speaker 3: minute window around halftime, fourteen points in a twenty eight

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Speaker 3: twenty three game. That's the game. That's the entire game

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Speaker 3: right there. But it shows how thin the margins are.

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Speaker 3: And really we talk about success rate and you hear

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Speaker 3: about success rate and EPA. This was not a successful

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Speaker 3: game for the Patriots offense. They didn't move the ball

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Speaker 3: that well. They just happened to have big plays when

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Speaker 3: they did. Travion had two long touchdowns, Cale Williams had

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Speaker 3: a long touchdown. They got the big fourth down touchdown

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Speaker 3: there to save it.

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Speaker 1: That's it. That was the game.

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Speaker 3: You get enough big plays, it works. But a lot

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Speaker 3: of the underlying metrics on both of these teams paint

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Speaker 3: them much worse than their record. I know the Bucks

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Speaker 3: have been high in the luck rankings all year. I

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Speaker 3: think they're kind of unlucky to lose this game, to

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Speaker 3: be honest, So maybe just evening out a little bit there.

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Speaker 3: But I do feel like people are gonna be getting

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Speaker 3: ahead of themselves a little bit.

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Speaker 1: With the Patriots.

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Speaker 3: They're eight and two and now they play the next

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Speaker 3: game Thursday night against the Jets, so let's call it

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Speaker 3: nine and two. Then they got Bengals and Giants.

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Speaker 1: Pretty good shot.

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Speaker 3: This team's eleven and two, and suddenly, like you think

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Speaker 3: Drake May is the favorite for MVP right now, help

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Speaker 3: about playing the Jets, Bengals and Giants. They're gonna be

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Speaker 3: the MV favorite after that probably as well. I'm gonna

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Speaker 3: be eleven and two and shooting for the one seed

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Speaker 3: and the division and like everything that lines.

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Speaker 1: Up that way.

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Speaker 3: This doesn't feel like that team to me yet. And

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Speaker 3: if you keep winning, it doesn't matter. But I do

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Speaker 3: think for today that's something to take note of for sure.

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Speaker 2: I mean, yeah, New England could have lost this game

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Speaker 2: while having what four plays of fifty plus yards, and

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Speaker 2: that's that. That would have been a very different story,

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Speaker 2: and only one by a few points. I think the story,

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Speaker 2: So yes, New England's great. I have another stat on

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Speaker 2: them in a second, which I can talk about, But

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Speaker 2: I think the other thing's kind of Tampa like at

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Speaker 2: Buffalo at the Rams coming up. I mean, granted, they're

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Speaker 2: six and three now, Caroline is their biggest competition at

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Speaker 2: five and five in the division, and there's still two

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Speaker 2: games versus Tampa Bay still to come. So I mean,

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Speaker 2: if Tampa Bay decides to drop another game or whatever,

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Speaker 2: that matchups against Carolina will at least be fun. But

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Speaker 2: Tampa Bay minus six hundred in the division right now,

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Speaker 2: So if you have any faith in anything else, there's

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Speaker 2: complete value on the other side. But to me, this

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Speaker 2: is just a loss against competition. Is kind of what

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Speaker 2: the odds is telling you. One other thing, sorry continued,

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Speaker 2: what are you gonna say?

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Speaker 3: I'm just going to say that the Bucks, there's no

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Speaker 3: and losing the Patriots certainly they're a playoff team at

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Speaker 3: the very least, like it's it's a fine loss in

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Speaker 3: a game that they maybe could have or should have won,

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Speaker 3: you can even argue. But on the same day, in

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Speaker 3: the worst division probably in football, the Falcons blow a

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Speaker 3: game that they could have won, and the Panthers blow

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Speaker 3: their easiest game on their schedule, presumably, so it's it's

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Speaker 3: a term life if you're the Bucks, like, we don't

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Speaker 3: factor that in. I'm sure Nick Giffen and the guys.

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Speaker 3: I don't think. Will the Panthers and Falcons in your

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Speaker 3: awful division lose stupid games that's not in the luck rankings.

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Speaker 1: But it could be.

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Speaker 3: The Bucks still got lucky today even when they didn't

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Speaker 3: get lucky in this game. One other now, just to

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Speaker 3: shout out, we hit the full escalator on Kate Adden.

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Speaker 3: We love Kay on at Action Network nine for eighty two.

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Speaker 3: Today we hit seven for plus three, fifty eight for

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Speaker 3: seven to one, nine at twelve to one. And I

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Speaker 3: don't know this is going away either. The Bucks and

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Speaker 3: more and more teams around the league are playing heavier sets,

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Speaker 3: more tight ends. I do think that's a trend. And

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Speaker 3: as long as the Bucks are shorthanded, I don't know

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Speaker 3: how long Backy Irving will be out. I know how

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Speaker 3: long Godwin will be out to be this close against

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Speaker 3: a good team without those guys. I think it's fine

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Speaker 3: for Tampa, but Kadat and we may need to keep

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Speaker 3: playing him too.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, they're just shorthanded kind of all over

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Speaker 2: the place in the past, defense, at least from a

434
00:21:19,920 --> 00:21:23,240
Speaker 2: big play perspective, got absolutely roasted today. I looked this

435
00:21:23,320 --> 00:21:25,280
Speaker 2: up just because I was curious, But New England's now

436
00:21:25,320 --> 00:21:28,200
Speaker 2: won seven in a row, six and one ATS in

437
00:21:28,280 --> 00:21:31,200
Speaker 2: those games. I tried to find like a decent comparison

438
00:21:31,240 --> 00:21:35,399
Speaker 2: because between them being best ATS, best record in a

439
00:21:35,400 --> 00:21:38,240
Speaker 2: lot of circumstances and Drake May's like going for the

440
00:21:38,320 --> 00:21:40,920
Speaker 2: MVP and they didn't even make the playoffs. I mean,

441
00:21:41,400 --> 00:21:43,720
Speaker 2: you know, when you talk about like a pedigree of

442
00:21:43,760 --> 00:21:46,600
Speaker 2: a team and where they've come from, just pretty crazy.

443
00:21:47,080 --> 00:21:50,080
Speaker 2: So you look at Week eleven or earlier, making a

444
00:21:50,119 --> 00:21:52,760
Speaker 2: streak of seven straight wins while going six and one

445
00:21:52,800 --> 00:21:57,320
Speaker 2: ATS in those games. Twenty one Cardinals, twenty Steelers like it.

446
00:21:57,440 --> 00:21:59,680
Speaker 2: Just it hasn't happened in a while, and this team's

447
00:21:59,720 --> 00:22:02,440
Speaker 2: kind of coming out of nowhere. So at this point

448
00:22:02,520 --> 00:22:05,359
Speaker 2: last time, I looked minus forty five hundred to make

449
00:22:05,400 --> 00:22:09,600
Speaker 2: the playoffs, minus ten to twenty to thirty to win

450
00:22:09,880 --> 00:22:12,680
Speaker 2: the division. But minus forty five hundred, I mean, they're

451
00:22:12,720 --> 00:22:15,400
Speaker 2: in the playoffs no matter what, even if Buffalo catches them.

452
00:22:15,480 --> 00:22:18,840
Speaker 2: So and one more thing, New England easiest remaining strengthy

453
00:22:18,840 --> 00:22:22,640
Speaker 2: schedule thirty three point eight percent, Brandon thirty three point

454
00:22:22,680 --> 00:22:26,359
Speaker 2: eight percent. They got four games versus Miami once, the

455
00:22:26,480 --> 00:22:30,800
Speaker 2: Giants once, and the Jets twice. Still coming up, so uh,

456
00:22:30,920 --> 00:22:32,760
Speaker 2: a lot of wins still in the schedule. All right,

457
00:22:32,880 --> 00:22:38,199
Speaker 2: let's keep going here, uh Germany in the morning. This

458
00:22:38,359 --> 00:22:41,200
Speaker 2: game was I mean, what it's going to deliver next week.

459
00:22:41,240 --> 00:22:43,000
Speaker 2: I mean, listen, you never know what a game's gonna

460
00:22:43,320 --> 00:22:46,240
Speaker 2: gonna happen. But when you've got Washington and Miami next week,

461
00:22:46,600 --> 00:22:48,600
Speaker 2: you really hope this one stepped up. And it did.

462
00:22:48,640 --> 00:22:50,720
Speaker 2: I mean, Indie wins the game thirty one to twenty

463
00:22:50,720 --> 00:22:54,520
Speaker 2: five in overtime, Atlanta ends up covering on the close

464
00:22:54,560 --> 00:22:57,160
Speaker 2: plus six and a half. Total goes over forty eight

465
00:22:57,160 --> 00:22:59,359
Speaker 2: and a half. But yeah, this one was a thriller.

466
00:22:59,400 --> 00:23:01,439
Speaker 2: I mean, this one was fun, kind of whistle to whistle,

467
00:23:01,480 --> 00:23:05,480
Speaker 2: lots of different things. And you know, I think the

468
00:23:05,560 --> 00:23:09,240
Speaker 2: quarterback play on both sides can always be shaky at times.

469
00:23:09,320 --> 00:23:12,120
Speaker 2: Like I don't think even with everything Daniel Jones has done,

470
00:23:12,119 --> 00:23:14,080
Speaker 2: I think we always kind of you know, you see

471
00:23:14,080 --> 00:23:16,960
Speaker 2: the pumpkin comments, but it's mostly about that. Like, even

472
00:23:17,000 --> 00:23:19,320
Speaker 2: when it's good it can look kind of scary, and

473
00:23:19,320 --> 00:23:21,600
Speaker 2: I think you say the same thing about Pennix, and

474
00:23:21,640 --> 00:23:24,960
Speaker 2: I think six lead changes, seven drives in the fourth

475
00:23:25,080 --> 00:23:28,360
Speaker 2: quarter between the two teams, like this one just kind

476
00:23:28,359 --> 00:23:30,240
Speaker 2: of was chaos all over the place. And the one

477
00:23:30,240 --> 00:23:32,400
Speaker 2: thing I'll say before I get your comment is kind

478
00:23:32,400 --> 00:23:38,760
Speaker 2: of what made it the thriller. Atlanta went over eight.

479
00:23:40,240 --> 00:23:41,040
Speaker 1: On the.

480
00:23:43,400 --> 00:23:45,879
Speaker 2: Down down, so between the two teams created their own

481
00:23:45,920 --> 00:23:47,240
Speaker 2: chaos a little bit in this one.

482
00:23:47,960 --> 00:23:50,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's interesting that it felt like such a good

483
00:23:50,440 --> 00:23:53,399
Speaker 3: fun game watching, because really both teams were terrible on

484
00:23:53,440 --> 00:23:56,080
Speaker 3: third down. Atlanta did not convert all game, like you said,

485
00:23:56,320 --> 00:23:58,639
Speaker 3: they were combined two of twenty though, so the Colts

486
00:23:58,640 --> 00:24:01,240
Speaker 3: were only two of twelve of them, and that's the

487
00:24:01,280 --> 00:24:03,959
Speaker 3: team that has been moving the chains upout as well

488
00:24:04,000 --> 00:24:05,240
Speaker 3: as any team in football.

489
00:24:05,680 --> 00:24:06,080
Speaker 1: They had.

490
00:24:06,400 --> 00:24:09,840
Speaker 3: Neither team had a third down conversion through three quarters,

491
00:24:10,160 --> 00:24:12,240
Speaker 3: and then at the end of regulation they had won,

492
00:24:12,440 --> 00:24:14,439
Speaker 3: so one of them was just that last drive the

493
00:24:14,440 --> 00:24:18,840
Speaker 3: Colts finally won with. So just crazy that that happened,

494
00:24:18,840 --> 00:24:21,479
Speaker 3: but still felt like a pretty good game because it

495
00:24:21,560 --> 00:24:24,800
Speaker 3: never really felt to me like the defense on either

496
00:24:24,840 --> 00:24:27,080
Speaker 3: side could make a stop here. It felt like it

497
00:24:27,160 --> 00:24:29,479
Speaker 3: was up to the offense to make a mistake, and

498
00:24:29,520 --> 00:24:32,439
Speaker 3: the mistake was Daniel Jones, and the mistake was Michael

499
00:24:32,440 --> 00:24:36,040
Speaker 3: Pennix missing a throw, taking a sack, fumbling the ball.

500
00:24:36,760 --> 00:24:40,920
Speaker 3: Like these teams in this game, to me, they felt

501
00:24:40,960 --> 00:24:42,800
Speaker 3: like they're looking in a mirror a little bit where

502
00:24:42,800 --> 00:24:46,400
Speaker 3: we're seeing plenty of talent on offense, we're seeing some blocking,

503
00:24:46,440 --> 00:24:50,000
Speaker 3: we're seeing some schemes open stuff up. But this is

504
00:24:50,000 --> 00:24:52,040
Speaker 3: the story the season for both teams. You have the

505
00:24:52,040 --> 00:24:55,760
Speaker 3: Falcons in a winnable game with plenty of talent, plenty

506
00:24:55,800 --> 00:24:58,280
Speaker 3: of chances, and they just can't close the deal.

507
00:24:58,760 --> 00:25:00,320
Speaker 1: And you have the Colts in.

508
00:25:00,280 --> 00:25:03,320
Speaker 3: A winnable game that finds a way and finds a

509
00:25:03,359 --> 00:25:06,720
Speaker 3: way to maximize their talent. To me, i know, Johnson

510
00:25:06,800 --> 00:25:10,879
Speaker 3: Taylor monster line again had the one huge run that

511
00:25:11,280 --> 00:25:13,879
Speaker 3: just kind of broke the numbers. This to me was

512
00:25:13,920 --> 00:25:17,080
Speaker 3: a coaching win. Coaching and special teams for the Colts

513
00:25:17,359 --> 00:25:19,760
Speaker 3: really swung it. I know Johnson Taylor did the good

514
00:25:19,800 --> 00:25:24,080
Speaker 3: stuff too, But this is why the Colts are eight

515
00:25:24,119 --> 00:25:26,760
Speaker 3: and two and why the Falcons are three and six

516
00:25:27,160 --> 00:25:29,840
Speaker 3: is because over and over again.

517
00:25:30,000 --> 00:25:32,320
Speaker 1: You'd see Colts guys just in space.

518
00:25:32,440 --> 00:25:35,080
Speaker 3: Now Daniel Jones missed them some of the times, and

519
00:25:35,080 --> 00:25:38,119
Speaker 3: it stayed close and they almost lost. But coaching just

520
00:25:38,240 --> 00:25:42,359
Speaker 3: kept scheming the stuff up for Indy, and I felt

521
00:25:42,400 --> 00:25:45,560
Speaker 3: like that was really, to me a story worth taking

522
00:25:45,600 --> 00:25:53,280
Speaker 3: away because despite the coaching, Daniel Jones three fumbles, seven sacks,

523
00:25:53,600 --> 00:25:58,240
Speaker 3: interception as well, last three games now fifteen sacks for

524
00:25:58,359 --> 00:26:01,480
Speaker 3: Daniel Jones. We talked about that last week two. He

525
00:26:01,560 --> 00:26:04,800
Speaker 3: also has three fumbles in back to back weeks. Now

526
00:26:05,200 --> 00:26:07,439
Speaker 3: you figure three in one game. All right, the football

527
00:26:07,520 --> 00:26:09,680
Speaker 3: is hard to keep hold of. You're gonna have good

528
00:26:09,720 --> 00:26:12,360
Speaker 3: security now next week, right, Danny, you're gonna keep care

529
00:26:12,359 --> 00:26:16,280
Speaker 3: of the ball, now, right, didn't happen. Plus four interceptions

530
00:26:16,280 --> 00:26:19,959
Speaker 3: now in that three game stretch. So I don't know

531
00:26:20,000 --> 00:26:22,919
Speaker 3: about the pumpkin thing, but he did not look great

532
00:26:22,920 --> 00:26:27,080
Speaker 3: in this game, and particularly on the timing. This was

533
00:26:27,160 --> 00:26:29,800
Speaker 3: the week that the Colts really made a big bet

534
00:26:29,840 --> 00:26:32,520
Speaker 3: on Daniel Jones. They traded both of their next two

535
00:26:32,560 --> 00:26:35,520
Speaker 3: first round picks for Sas Gardner, who, by the way,

536
00:26:35,640 --> 00:26:38,159
Speaker 3: wasn't great in this game, but he'll settle in. But

537
00:26:38,880 --> 00:26:41,159
Speaker 3: that's about on Daniel Jones as much as is on

538
00:26:41,280 --> 00:26:44,240
Speaker 3: Sace Gardner, because you don't have any other way to

539
00:26:44,240 --> 00:26:47,480
Speaker 3: get a quarterback. Now you don't think it's Richardson, he

540
00:26:47,520 --> 00:26:50,760
Speaker 3: hasn't played anyway. You thought it was Daniel Jones, and

541
00:26:50,760 --> 00:26:52,879
Speaker 3: then this is what you get for the vote of confidence.

542
00:26:53,280 --> 00:26:55,240
Speaker 3: I don't feel like I'm gonna feel great about that

543
00:26:55,359 --> 00:26:56,800
Speaker 3: if I'm in the coming out of this game. What

544
00:26:56,840 --> 00:26:57,320
Speaker 3: do you think?

545
00:26:58,280 --> 00:27:00,800
Speaker 2: I mean they won? I feel like giving it like

546
00:27:00,840 --> 00:27:04,880
Speaker 2: there's two there's two angles here like Atlanta. Atlanta's three

547
00:27:04,920 --> 00:27:09,840
Speaker 2: and six. I think Indy has aspirations based off of

548
00:27:09,960 --> 00:27:13,880
Speaker 2: giving up capital making those types of trades, like they

549
00:27:14,200 --> 00:27:17,399
Speaker 2: at this point, they're going to go to the playoffs.

550
00:27:17,400 --> 00:27:19,320
Speaker 2: They want to win a Super Bowl, like they want

551
00:27:19,320 --> 00:27:22,320
Speaker 2: to go to an AFC Championship game. Like there's there's

552
00:27:22,359 --> 00:27:26,240
Speaker 2: aspirations there. So I think, you know, grading them based

553
00:27:26,280 --> 00:27:29,560
Speaker 2: off those aspirations, I think are completely fine. I think

554
00:27:29,600 --> 00:27:33,800
Speaker 2: from Atlanta's point of view, like there's so one dimensional

555
00:27:33,880 --> 00:27:37,000
Speaker 2: in terms of their offense, like it's Drake London or nothing.

556
00:27:37,040 --> 00:27:38,880
Speaker 2: Because I don't have a lot of faith in Panics.

557
00:27:38,920 --> 00:27:41,879
Speaker 2: I think the run game is almost always going to

558
00:27:41,920 --> 00:27:45,160
Speaker 2: be there for them. But when you target Darnell Mooney

559
00:27:45,240 --> 00:27:48,679
Speaker 2: eight times and you have one reception like there's a problem, Like,

560
00:27:48,720 --> 00:27:52,000
Speaker 2: obviously something is going on where Drake London is making

561
00:27:52,040 --> 00:27:54,399
Speaker 2: the pass game look better, and I think it. You know,

562
00:27:54,640 --> 00:27:57,359
Speaker 2: he can have three touchdowns and that's all fine and good,

563
00:27:57,720 --> 00:28:00,520
Speaker 2: but I think it becomes a little more one to

564
00:28:01,119 --> 00:28:03,199
Speaker 2: one dimensional and I think you need more in the

565
00:28:03,240 --> 00:28:05,560
Speaker 2: offense than that. And I think that's part of what's

566
00:28:05,560 --> 00:28:08,440
Speaker 2: going on in Atlanta. So I think that's that's one

567
00:28:08,480 --> 00:28:11,080
Speaker 2: angle on it. You mentioned the sacks on Daniel Jones

568
00:28:11,359 --> 00:28:15,560
Speaker 2: last two games, being pressured thirty times is also like,

569
00:28:15,720 --> 00:28:17,800
Speaker 2: I feel like the offensive line is giving him a

570
00:28:17,840 --> 00:28:19,879
Speaker 2: little bit of a problem. Now I have to look

571
00:28:19,920 --> 00:28:22,960
Speaker 2: at the data. Maybe it's sacks being held to the

572
00:28:23,000 --> 00:28:25,199
Speaker 2: quarterback and maybe it's not so much the line, but

573
00:28:25,560 --> 00:28:28,760
Speaker 2: thirty pressures in two games has me a tiny bit

574
00:28:29,440 --> 00:28:33,520
Speaker 2: worried there. I think it's also Jonathan Taylor. The game today,

575
00:28:33,840 --> 00:28:37,080
Speaker 2: just specifically on statistics, was absolutely stupid. So I think

576
00:28:37,080 --> 00:28:41,280
Speaker 2: it's worth saying thirty two carries, thirty two carries, thirty

577
00:28:41,280 --> 00:28:44,840
Speaker 2: two carries, two hundred and forty four yards, three touchdowns

578
00:28:44,920 --> 00:28:48,240
Speaker 2: and an eighty three yard rush. I look this up

579
00:28:48,240 --> 00:28:50,560
Speaker 2: because it's worth saying. So the last time we saw

580
00:28:50,600 --> 00:28:54,520
Speaker 2: a thirty two hundred and three game Derek Henry twenty nineteen.

581
00:28:54,880 --> 00:28:57,880
Speaker 2: The last time we saw a thirty carry, two hundred

582
00:28:57,960 --> 00:29:02,240
Speaker 2: yard three touchdown with an eight rush Sean Alexander in

583
00:29:02,280 --> 00:29:04,880
Speaker 2: two thousand and one. That is what we saw with

584
00:29:05,000 --> 00:29:07,800
Speaker 2: Jonathan Taylor today. And when you look at most rushing

585
00:29:07,840 --> 00:29:10,400
Speaker 2: touchdowns this season, it is the Colts with twenty two,

586
00:29:11,080 --> 00:29:14,400
Speaker 2: the Bills with sixteen, Jonathan Taylor with fifteen, and then

587
00:29:14,440 --> 00:29:15,080
Speaker 2: everyone else.

588
00:29:16,720 --> 00:29:19,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean that that one, that one Taylor run

589
00:29:20,720 --> 00:29:23,680
Speaker 3: was a thirty one percent win probability added like that

590
00:29:23,880 --> 00:29:25,480
Speaker 3: was he got basically.

591
00:29:25,160 --> 00:29:25,920
Speaker 1: Hit at the line.

592
00:29:25,960 --> 00:29:28,360
Speaker 3: It's an eighty three yard run with eighty two yards

593
00:29:28,360 --> 00:29:31,600
Speaker 3: after contact, and he got hit there. It looked like

594
00:29:31,640 --> 00:29:33,440
Speaker 3: it was just like another run up the middle and

595
00:29:33,480 --> 00:29:37,280
Speaker 3: suddenly bounced it outside and picked up everything. It was

596
00:29:37,320 --> 00:29:42,120
Speaker 3: seventy eight yards rushing over expectation. So we're gonna come

597
00:29:42,160 --> 00:29:46,000
Speaker 3: back to the MVP thing. But this is the story

598
00:29:46,040 --> 00:29:48,840
Speaker 3: in the MVP race today, is that Jonathan Taylor. We

599
00:29:49,040 --> 00:29:52,120
Speaker 3: get one every year, right, a non quarterback, He's the

600
00:29:52,160 --> 00:29:55,600
Speaker 3: one very clearly this year on the possible one seed

601
00:29:55,720 --> 00:29:59,280
Speaker 3: in the AFC. He's now basically a priced about even

602
00:29:59,320 --> 00:30:01,720
Speaker 3: odds with a top three to five guys.

603
00:30:01,400 --> 00:30:02,240
Speaker 1: At most books.

604
00:30:02,720 --> 00:30:06,200
Speaker 3: And I we're gonna get there, But I just I'm

605
00:30:06,240 --> 00:30:09,520
Speaker 3: gonna give you a stat on Taylor. Okay, I'll come

606
00:30:09,520 --> 00:30:11,840
Speaker 3: back in a second. I'm gonna get to Michael Pennix.

607
00:30:11,840 --> 00:30:13,400
Speaker 3: Then I'll get back to the Taylor's stat because it

608
00:30:13,480 --> 00:30:17,400
Speaker 3: leads into it. Pennix twelve a dot for the game,

609
00:30:18,280 --> 00:30:21,920
Speaker 3: minus sixteen completion overexpected. He was twelve of twenty eight

610
00:30:22,400 --> 00:30:25,400
Speaker 3: minus point one three EPA per play. You just you

611
00:30:25,440 --> 00:30:28,800
Speaker 3: can't live that way if you're Atlanta. That is unsustainable.

612
00:30:29,360 --> 00:30:32,120
Speaker 3: Drive to drive game to game because you're gonna hit

613
00:30:32,120 --> 00:30:35,560
Speaker 3: the big play, probably to Drake London, but there's not

614
00:30:35,760 --> 00:30:39,800
Speaker 3: enough substance there. Right, you're eating dessert every play, but

615
00:30:39,920 --> 00:30:43,080
Speaker 3: you're never getting like the meal along with it. London

616
00:30:43,440 --> 00:30:46,160
Speaker 3: six per one hundred and four six is half of

617
00:30:46,240 --> 00:30:49,280
Speaker 3: the receptions for the entire game. Like, that's not a

618
00:30:49,320 --> 00:30:52,640
Speaker 3: whole offense that way. But here's where I come back

619
00:30:52,680 --> 00:30:55,680
Speaker 3: to the Jonathan Taylor stat. You look at EPA, how

620
00:30:55,680 --> 00:30:58,160
Speaker 3: many points are we adding of value to a team?

621
00:30:58,480 --> 00:31:01,720
Speaker 3: He just ran, like you said, thirty two times two

622
00:31:01,800 --> 00:31:05,360
Speaker 3: hundred and forty four yards three scores, including one touchdown

623
00:31:05,440 --> 00:31:08,920
Speaker 3: out of nothing from his own twenty Basically, he finishes

624
00:31:08,960 --> 00:31:12,560
Speaker 3: the game as a runner nine point five EPA. That's

625
00:31:12,640 --> 00:31:18,080
Speaker 3: really good. But for comparison, Drake London seven point eightypa,

626
00:31:18,920 --> 00:31:23,720
Speaker 3: not much further behind Tyler Warren, his own teammate spend

627
00:31:23,720 --> 00:31:27,360
Speaker 3: point eight same as Drake London. That's like less than

628
00:31:27,400 --> 00:31:31,840
Speaker 3: two epa difference to Jonathan Taylor. And so for the crowd,

629
00:31:31,840 --> 00:31:34,719
Speaker 3: that's like, well, why does it got to be a quarterback?

630
00:31:34,840 --> 00:31:35,320
Speaker 1: Can't it be?

631
00:31:35,400 --> 00:31:38,520
Speaker 3: So it's because all the numbers we have are telling

632
00:31:38,600 --> 00:31:42,000
Speaker 3: us how valuable a good quarterback can add in a

633
00:31:42,000 --> 00:31:45,840
Speaker 3: big game like twenty twenty five epa. You're never getting

634
00:31:45,920 --> 00:31:48,640
Speaker 3: that from a reight back game. That's just not the

635
00:31:48,640 --> 00:31:51,200
Speaker 3: way that you can impact the game that way. So

636
00:31:51,920 --> 00:31:54,560
Speaker 3: I think that matters in the MVP race. I think

637
00:31:54,560 --> 00:31:58,239
Speaker 3: it matters too because when we get these teams with

638
00:31:58,360 --> 00:32:03,200
Speaker 3: the Derrick Henry, with the Sean Alexander, those teams typically

639
00:32:03,840 --> 00:32:06,840
Speaker 3: aren't really the teams winning in deep playoff runs either,

640
00:32:07,000 --> 00:32:11,040
Speaker 3: because if your most valuable player on your team is

641
00:32:11,080 --> 00:32:15,000
Speaker 3: the running back, then the quarterback sometimes turns into a

642
00:32:15,000 --> 00:32:17,959
Speaker 3: pumpkin in January and now your season's over after that

643
00:32:18,040 --> 00:32:20,720
Speaker 3: as well. So I think it's also a good reminder

644
00:32:20,760 --> 00:32:25,920
Speaker 3: of what Indy is big picture. And they're eight and two,

645
00:32:26,000 --> 00:32:28,400
Speaker 3: but the schedule is tough. They get a bye now,

646
00:32:28,440 --> 00:32:30,520
Speaker 3: I believe, and then they go at the Chiefs, so

647
00:32:30,600 --> 00:32:32,960
Speaker 3: that will be our next game of the year coming up.

648
00:32:33,320 --> 00:32:35,760
Speaker 3: Chiefs gonna need that one, by the way, too. And

649
00:32:35,760 --> 00:32:39,400
Speaker 3: then they still play Houston both games. Houston's not dead yet,

650
00:32:39,440 --> 00:32:42,400
Speaker 3: We'll get to them. They still play both Jacksonville games.

651
00:32:42,880 --> 00:32:45,520
Speaker 3: So the division's not done in dusted either. They all

652
00:32:45,600 --> 00:32:48,320
Speaker 3: the teams that they could possibly lose to in the division,

653
00:32:48,480 --> 00:32:51,520
Speaker 3: not the Titans, basically, they still have them all. They

654
00:32:51,520 --> 00:32:54,920
Speaker 3: go out Seattle, they have San Fran. There's a lot

655
00:32:54,920 --> 00:32:59,200
Speaker 3: of losable games still. If Daniel Jones is not great,

656
00:32:59,200 --> 00:33:01,720
Speaker 3: and you mentioned all the pressures, pressures are up, but

657
00:33:01,760 --> 00:33:04,120
Speaker 3: the pressure to sack rate is up also, So it's

658
00:33:04,360 --> 00:33:07,560
Speaker 3: Daniel Jones isn't getting help, but he's not helping himself either,

659
00:33:08,040 --> 00:33:10,680
Speaker 3: And it can't just be Jonathan Taylor all the time.

660
00:33:10,720 --> 00:33:14,520
Speaker 3: Look last week, Jonathan Taylor didn't have a big game,

661
00:33:14,560 --> 00:33:16,560
Speaker 3: didn't really do a lot, and then the Colts lost

662
00:33:16,600 --> 00:33:19,480
Speaker 3: that game. So it's a story we're gonna do every

663
00:33:19,560 --> 00:33:22,960
Speaker 3: year with sakuon Barkley last year, it's there's always somebody

664
00:33:23,120 --> 00:33:25,760
Speaker 3: like this, But I think it's the same story we

665
00:33:25,840 --> 00:33:26,400
Speaker 3: keep telling.

666
00:33:27,400 --> 00:33:29,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, for the Colts though, over their win total of

667
00:33:29,640 --> 00:33:31,800
Speaker 2: seven and a half already today with their eighth win,

668
00:33:31,880 --> 00:33:34,000
Speaker 2: which is a fun story in itself. If you look

669
00:33:34,040 --> 00:33:36,560
Speaker 2: at their odds, so minus three fifty earlier today to

670
00:33:36,600 --> 00:33:38,720
Speaker 2: win the division, now minus four to twenty five to

671
00:33:38,720 --> 00:33:41,040
Speaker 2: win the division. They were minus sixteen hundred to make

672
00:33:41,080 --> 00:33:44,200
Speaker 2: the playoffs, now minus two thousand. Basically everyone telling you

673
00:33:44,560 --> 00:33:46,280
Speaker 2: this one is wrapped up and they're gonna make it.

674
00:33:46,320 --> 00:33:48,960
Speaker 2: But you are right in what you're saying. They have

675
00:33:49,040 --> 00:33:52,760
Speaker 2: the third toughest remaining strength to schedule. Their easiest games

676
00:33:52,960 --> 00:33:56,000
Speaker 2: on their schedule going forward is Houston twice. So that

677
00:33:56,040 --> 00:33:58,200
Speaker 2: tells you everything you need to know about what's to come.

678
00:33:58,920 --> 00:33:59,680
Speaker 2: All right, you ready to go?

679
00:34:00,080 --> 00:34:01,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, let's go to Houston.

680
00:34:01,480 --> 00:34:05,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, let's do it. Houston wins thirty six twenty nine

681
00:34:05,160 --> 00:34:08,320
Speaker 2: as a one and a half favorite on open but

682
00:34:08,520 --> 00:34:12,080
Speaker 2: one and a half dog on clothes, which very important.

683
00:34:12,120 --> 00:34:14,040
Speaker 2: If you saw the very end of this game, total

684
00:34:14,080 --> 00:34:17,880
Speaker 2: goes over thirty seven and a half My note here

685
00:34:18,040 --> 00:34:20,600
Speaker 2: is some games it's how you start that gets you

686
00:34:20,640 --> 00:34:24,239
Speaker 2: near the top of our rundown, but sometimes it's they finish.

687
00:34:24,280 --> 00:34:28,440
Speaker 2: And this one, listen, it started without Brian Thomas Junior

688
00:34:28,719 --> 00:34:30,920
Speaker 2: not playing in this game, and you says to yourselves,

689
00:34:30,920 --> 00:34:33,600
Speaker 2: all right, well, Jacksonville is going to be very shorthanded

690
00:34:33,600 --> 00:34:37,080
Speaker 2: on the offensive side, and turned out it ain't matter.

691
00:34:37,520 --> 00:34:40,200
Speaker 2: They were up seventeen to nothing in this game. They

692
00:34:40,280 --> 00:34:43,319
Speaker 2: led twenty nine to ten. I mean Davis Mills on

693
00:34:43,360 --> 00:34:45,960
Speaker 2: the other side, and I saw a lot of handicaps

694
00:34:45,960 --> 00:34:48,480
Speaker 2: and a lot of people saying, well, it might be

695
00:34:48,600 --> 00:34:51,560
Speaker 2: Davis Mills, but I think he can, you know, be

696
00:34:52,040 --> 00:34:54,600
Speaker 2: just fine in his offense get the ball to Eco Collins,

697
00:34:54,640 --> 00:34:57,360
Speaker 2: which he ended up doing in this game. But to me,

698
00:34:58,320 --> 00:35:03,959
Speaker 2: absolutely ridiculous that Backsonville's pass defense allows Houston back into

699
00:35:04,000 --> 00:35:07,719
Speaker 2: the game. In general, like Davis Mills's second career game

700
00:35:07,719 --> 00:35:11,320
Speaker 2: of three plus touchdowns and thirty plus on offense, Houston

701
00:35:11,360 --> 00:35:15,319
Speaker 2: goes ten to fifteen on third down. They had seventeen

702
00:35:15,600 --> 00:35:19,400
Speaker 2: passing first downs in this game behind Davis Mills. Like

703
00:35:19,440 --> 00:35:26,080
Speaker 2: it just honestly just can't happen from Jacksonville's standpoint, especially

704
00:35:26,120 --> 00:35:29,319
Speaker 2: with their fight for the playoffs, they're gonna look back

705
00:35:29,360 --> 00:35:31,080
Speaker 2: at this one and be like, what the hell happened?

706
00:35:32,080 --> 00:35:33,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, I basically had that same note.

707
00:35:33,560 --> 00:35:36,160
Speaker 3: If Jacksonville five and four are gonna miss the playoffs

708
00:35:36,160 --> 00:35:38,840
Speaker 3: because they lost to Davis Mills and Woody Marx, like

709
00:35:38,880 --> 00:35:41,920
Speaker 3: that's gonna sting in the offseason. I think you're bearing

710
00:35:42,040 --> 00:35:44,560
Speaker 3: the lead. Though this is a betting podcast. This game

711
00:35:44,880 --> 00:35:48,000
Speaker 3: was twenty nine to ten with under thirteen left, and

712
00:35:48,040 --> 00:35:50,879
Speaker 3: you're sitting down Houston minus one and a half. That

713
00:35:50,920 --> 00:35:54,080
Speaker 3: thing is deader than dead. And then Houston comes.

714
00:35:53,840 --> 00:35:56,440
Speaker 1: All the way back, takes the lead.

715
00:35:56,719 --> 00:35:59,239
Speaker 3: But misses the two point conversion, so it's a one

716
00:35:59,280 --> 00:36:03,320
Speaker 3: point game. It's over, Jack, I forgot about I forgot

717
00:36:03,320 --> 00:36:07,600
Speaker 3: about this. There's no pitchy which you woo possibilities. And

718
00:36:07,640 --> 00:36:10,359
Speaker 3: then on the last play of the game, we get

719
00:36:10,400 --> 00:36:14,040
Speaker 3: a fumble six that Will Anderson gets around, strips the

720
00:36:14,080 --> 00:36:17,440
Speaker 3: ball and for no reason whatsoever, the second time this

721
00:36:17,600 --> 00:36:19,880
Speaker 3: season we had the block field goal with the Eagles

722
00:36:19,960 --> 00:36:22,000
Speaker 3: game earlier this year, I think Eagles bucks. Whereas like

723
00:36:22,040 --> 00:36:25,120
Speaker 3: the game is over, fall down larger man, the game

724
00:36:25,239 --> 00:36:28,560
Speaker 3: is over, don't possibly ruin this. Instead, it goes back

725
00:36:28,600 --> 00:36:32,480
Speaker 3: all the way for the walkoff touchdown. Basically the game's

726
00:36:32,520 --> 00:36:36,000
Speaker 3: over anyway, but suddenly the Texans win by seven. It

727
00:36:36,000 --> 00:36:38,120
Speaker 3: doesn't matter what Lina was or when you bet it

728
00:36:38,200 --> 00:36:40,919
Speaker 3: during the week, it covered everything. But if you bet

729
00:36:40,960 --> 00:36:43,080
Speaker 3: it early in the week or if you bet this

730
00:36:43,160 --> 00:36:45,960
Speaker 3: morning right before the game, you needed that play at

731
00:36:45,960 --> 00:36:49,200
Speaker 3: the buzzer. And if you bet Jacksonville, you're up twenty

732
00:36:49,280 --> 00:36:52,200
Speaker 3: nine to ten and you think you're coasting to a wind.

733
00:36:52,800 --> 00:36:58,080
Speaker 3: Didn't go well. So the reality is despite the crazy comeback,

734
00:36:58,480 --> 00:37:01,720
Speaker 3: which like I don't know, wasn't even really crazy the way,

735
00:37:01,760 --> 00:37:03,560
Speaker 3: like there were no like super crazy things that they

736
00:37:03,600 --> 00:37:05,840
Speaker 3: tell that last play. I don't really have much on

737
00:37:05,880 --> 00:37:09,759
Speaker 3: the game itself because I do with Jacksonville is really

738
00:37:09,800 --> 00:37:11,360
Speaker 3: a no show of this game, Like they should have

739
00:37:11,400 --> 00:37:14,440
Speaker 3: never been ahead twenty nine to ten. Houston ended up

740
00:37:14,480 --> 00:37:17,880
Speaker 3: with almost two hundred more yards than Jacksonville in this game.

741
00:37:18,239 --> 00:37:20,640
Speaker 3: They were six yards of play to three point nine.

742
00:37:21,040 --> 00:37:24,120
Speaker 3: They crushed him in success rate, Nico, like you said

743
00:37:24,160 --> 00:37:27,640
Speaker 3: at a huge game, fifteen targets, seven balls for one

744
00:37:27,800 --> 00:37:31,719
Speaker 3: thirty six. Honestly a little troubling to me. You're doing

745
00:37:31,719 --> 00:37:34,160
Speaker 3: that with Davis Mills CJ. Stroud, where are you at,

746
00:37:34,200 --> 00:37:36,320
Speaker 3: bro Like where you've been the rest of the season.

747
00:37:36,680 --> 00:37:38,880
Speaker 3: If that's what Nico can do. When Davis Mills is

748
00:37:38,920 --> 00:37:42,200
Speaker 3: throwing the ball and on the flip side, man, I

749
00:37:42,200 --> 00:37:44,799
Speaker 3: don't know if Liam Cohen and Trevor Lawrence is gonna

750
00:37:44,840 --> 00:37:48,240
Speaker 3: work because that man on the sideline is not happy

751
00:37:48,280 --> 00:37:52,960
Speaker 3: with Trevor Lawrence right now. Lawrence finishes with five sacks. Again,

752
00:37:53,160 --> 00:37:56,040
Speaker 3: we keep talking about this with him six sacks the

753
00:37:56,040 --> 00:37:59,720
Speaker 3: first five games, twenty sacks the last four games.

754
00:38:00,160 --> 00:38:01,160
Speaker 1: I think that's Lawrence.

755
00:38:01,200 --> 00:38:04,760
Speaker 3: And it's the offensive line that looked good early against

756
00:38:04,760 --> 00:38:08,040
Speaker 3: bad competition and now is facing real teams. Houston's a

757
00:38:08,040 --> 00:38:13,680
Speaker 3: good one obviously. Lawrence finishes minus fourteen completion overexpected, minus

758
00:38:13,719 --> 00:38:17,319
Speaker 3: point fifteen EPA per play, And you know.

759
00:38:17,440 --> 00:38:19,800
Speaker 1: That's their guy. They paid him big, big money.

760
00:38:20,400 --> 00:38:24,000
Speaker 3: And like we're looking at all these former number one

761
00:38:24,080 --> 00:38:28,960
Speaker 3: quarterbacks Kyler Murray also, like can we take like Kyler

762
00:38:29,120 --> 00:38:31,960
Speaker 3: and Tua and Lawrence and just like shuffle them up

763
00:38:32,040 --> 00:38:34,160
Speaker 3: and draw names out and put them on new teams

764
00:38:34,200 --> 00:38:38,480
Speaker 3: because they're all these high, highly drafted, highly paid quarterbacks

765
00:38:38,840 --> 00:38:41,319
Speaker 3: and their teams do not seem happy with them, right now,

766
00:38:41,360 --> 00:38:44,279
Speaker 3: and yeah, I think this is the one Jacksonville looks

767
00:38:44,320 --> 00:38:47,239
Speaker 3: back on and thinks, man, I can't believe we blew

768
00:38:47,320 --> 00:38:47,680
Speaker 3: that one.

769
00:38:47,760 --> 00:38:48,720
Speaker 1: That's our season.

770
00:38:49,719 --> 00:38:51,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is a Madden franchise. All three of those

771
00:38:51,719 --> 00:38:53,719
Speaker 2: quarterback to be sitting there in free agency and you'd

772
00:38:53,719 --> 00:38:56,880
Speaker 2: have your pick of them. The other thing is just

773
00:38:56,960 --> 00:39:01,160
Speaker 2: comebacks in general, pretty crazy. We had nine teams come

774
00:39:01,200 --> 00:39:04,720
Speaker 2: back from fourteen plus points down to win last year.

775
00:39:04,960 --> 00:39:07,640
Speaker 2: After this game, this is our ninth this year already.

776
00:39:07,840 --> 00:39:11,319
Speaker 2: So nine all of last year from fourteen plus down.

777
00:39:11,440 --> 00:39:14,120
Speaker 2: We just had our ninth with this one. And here's like,

778
00:39:14,360 --> 00:39:16,600
Speaker 2: if it wasn't for that stat I found off the top,

779
00:39:16,680 --> 00:39:19,400
Speaker 2: this was probably one of my favorite ones. So teams

780
00:39:19,480 --> 00:39:23,239
Speaker 2: up nineteen plus entering the fourth quarter crazy like, it's

781
00:39:23,239 --> 00:39:26,400
Speaker 2: like ninety seven percent against the spread in the last decade.

782
00:39:26,719 --> 00:39:29,759
Speaker 2: But the last time we saw a team line of

783
00:39:30,000 --> 00:39:33,680
Speaker 2: minus three or less or a dog one forty nine

784
00:39:33,760 --> 00:39:36,760
Speaker 2: and one against the spread when you're up nineteen plus

785
00:39:36,920 --> 00:39:39,800
Speaker 2: entering the fourth quarter. The last time a team didn't

786
00:39:39,840 --> 00:39:44,279
Speaker 2: cover Patriots Falcon super Bowl twenty eight to three, And

787
00:39:44,320 --> 00:39:47,440
Speaker 2: that was the last time before today a team didn't

788
00:39:47,480 --> 00:39:52,320
Speaker 2: cover up nineteen plus with a line that's short, absolutely incredible,

789
00:39:53,080 --> 00:39:56,040
Speaker 2: something you just don't see. And I did the favorites

790
00:39:56,040 --> 00:39:58,960
Speaker 2: earlier with Kendrick Melton, who is a huge Jaguars fan.

791
00:39:59,080 --> 00:40:02,799
Speaker 2: It was just a sad Cats podcast. But this the

792
00:40:02,840 --> 00:40:05,759
Speaker 2: thing that's interesting is Houston one and one versus Jacksonville.

793
00:40:05,840 --> 00:40:09,799
Speaker 2: Now jackson was obviously a game up, but Houston's, like

794
00:40:09,960 --> 00:40:11,680
Speaker 2: last time I looked plus three to sixty to make

795
00:40:11,680 --> 00:40:14,359
Speaker 2: the playoffs, Jaguars a coin flip, basically a pick them,

796
00:40:15,040 --> 00:40:16,680
Speaker 2: so a lot to come for both teams.

797
00:40:18,280 --> 00:40:20,239
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think this was a pretty damaging loss for

798
00:40:20,320 --> 00:40:24,000
Speaker 3: Jacksonville's playoff hopes and Houston four and five. They play

799
00:40:24,040 --> 00:40:27,239
Speaker 3: the Titans next, so presumably five and five for better

800
00:40:27,320 --> 00:40:30,239
Speaker 3: or worse. I don't think they're dead because they've got

801
00:40:30,239 --> 00:40:33,080
Speaker 3: a tough schedule. They played the Bills, they play the

802
00:40:33,080 --> 00:40:36,440
Speaker 3: Colts twice, Like we said, they play the Chiefs. Playing

803
00:40:36,480 --> 00:40:38,640
Speaker 3: the Chiefs is not so bad. Playing the Bills is

804
00:40:38,680 --> 00:40:41,640
Speaker 3: not so bad. Those are teams that are wild card

805
00:40:41,680 --> 00:40:44,359
Speaker 3: teams right now in the AFC. Those are teams the

806
00:40:44,400 --> 00:40:47,480
Speaker 3: Texans need to lose so they can win games to

807
00:40:47,480 --> 00:40:50,040
Speaker 3: try to make the playoffs. And they can win those games,

808
00:40:50,080 --> 00:40:52,360
Speaker 3: they get ahead to head shot to get a loss

809
00:40:52,440 --> 00:40:55,880
Speaker 3: and to win, and a head to head like they're

810
00:40:55,960 --> 00:40:59,360
Speaker 3: possibly live still as bad as everything is gone, the

811
00:40:59,440 --> 00:41:02,280
Speaker 3: defense is as good as anybody in the NFL still,

812
00:41:02,800 --> 00:41:05,840
Speaker 3: And this is the sort of game that might quietly

813
00:41:05,920 --> 00:41:08,359
Speaker 3: save a season when we didn't really notice it, when

814
00:41:08,440 --> 00:41:12,520
Speaker 3: Davis Mills burns down one season but saves another one.

815
00:41:12,680 --> 00:41:15,400
Speaker 3: Like we could wake up a month from now in December,

816
00:41:15,760 --> 00:41:17,680
Speaker 3: and the Texans are right there in the mix of things.

817
00:41:17,719 --> 00:41:21,040
Speaker 3: They're gonna have to pull some more upsets and hopefully

818
00:41:21,040 --> 00:41:23,400
Speaker 3: not do another twenty six nothing fourth quarter.

819
00:41:23,520 --> 00:41:27,000
Speaker 1: But you play the Bills, Colts Chiefs, you have a shot.

820
00:41:27,040 --> 00:41:30,000
Speaker 3: The Texans can win those games, so they're still interesting.

821
00:41:30,719 --> 00:41:34,319
Speaker 2: I'm glad you have faith, Bills Colts Chiefs. Woof All Right,

822
00:41:34,560 --> 00:41:36,880
Speaker 2: before we move on, don't forget to sign up for

823
00:41:36,920 --> 00:41:39,960
Speaker 2: Action Pro for real time pickler from experts like Brandon Anderson,

824
00:41:40,040 --> 00:41:43,440
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825
00:41:43,440 --> 00:41:46,440
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826
00:41:46,480 --> 00:41:49,239
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827
00:41:49,280 --> 00:41:52,040
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828
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829
00:41:55,520 --> 00:41:58,319
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830
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831
00:42:01,960 --> 00:42:05,080
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832
00:42:05,280 --> 00:42:08,239
Speaker 2: All right, it is shorter recaps. We will go through

833
00:42:08,280 --> 00:42:12,680
Speaker 2: these a little bit quicker. But Miami wins thirty to

834
00:42:12,680 --> 00:42:15,920
Speaker 2: thirteen as an eight and a half point dog against

835
00:42:15,920 --> 00:42:19,560
Speaker 2: the Bills. Total goes under fifty. I want to talk

836
00:42:19,600 --> 00:42:21,319
Speaker 2: about some of these injuries that we get to them,

837
00:42:21,320 --> 00:42:24,400
Speaker 2: but Dalton Kincaid left this game with a hamstring injury.

838
00:42:24,719 --> 00:42:28,920
Speaker 2: So something to look forward with Buffalo facing Tampa Bay, Houston,

839
00:42:29,080 --> 00:42:32,920
Speaker 2: and Pittsburgh in their next three games. Nothing easy there,

840
00:42:33,239 --> 00:42:36,680
Speaker 2: But listen, it isn't every week. And I didn't even

841
00:42:36,719 --> 00:42:39,000
Speaker 2: look this up, but I'll make the assumption that Buffalo

842
00:42:39,080 --> 00:42:42,879
Speaker 2: loses wire to wire. It just isn't something you see

843
00:42:42,920 --> 00:42:45,680
Speaker 2: with Josh Allen and the fact that Miami opened the

844
00:42:45,719 --> 00:42:49,440
Speaker 2: game with a touchdown, you know, after Tua got picked,

845
00:42:49,480 --> 00:42:51,359
Speaker 2: but we're gonna ignore that. We're gonna say they opened

846
00:42:51,360 --> 00:42:53,680
Speaker 2: the game with a touchdown because it sounds better, but

847
00:42:53,880 --> 00:42:57,479
Speaker 2: it listen, it's sixteen to six with seven minutes left,

848
00:42:57,800 --> 00:43:01,120
Speaker 2: Buffalo's driving down the field, and I think everyone is

849
00:43:01,120 --> 00:43:04,440
Speaker 2: saying to themselves like, this still has a ton of

850
00:43:04,480 --> 00:43:07,000
Speaker 2: game left and Miami may not even even be favored

851
00:43:07,080 --> 00:43:10,200
Speaker 2: at this point with Buffalo driving, but Josh fumbles and

852
00:43:10,320 --> 00:43:13,319
Speaker 2: the game really never gets back to them. I mean,

853
00:43:13,360 --> 00:43:17,160
Speaker 2: Buffalo played terribly. They looked like they didn't enjoy the heat.

854
00:43:17,280 --> 00:43:19,920
Speaker 2: You know about eighty degrees in Miami. Just see like

855
00:43:20,120 --> 00:43:23,239
Speaker 2: I felt like their defense was gassed. This is the

856
00:43:23,280 --> 00:43:27,000
Speaker 2: crazy one to me. Early down rushes minus zero point

857
00:43:27,120 --> 00:43:31,320
Speaker 2: three to six ePaper play for Buffalo on sixteen plays.

858
00:43:31,560 --> 00:43:34,479
Speaker 2: They just couldn't do anything on the ground. Early down

859
00:43:34,840 --> 00:43:37,640
Speaker 2: made it very difficult to move the ball. But three

860
00:43:37,719 --> 00:43:40,799
Speaker 2: turnovers two were on Josh. You have one red zone

861
00:43:40,840 --> 00:43:43,680
Speaker 2: trip they want, oh for one. This was and honestly

862
00:43:43,719 --> 00:43:47,600
Speaker 2: most importantly, zero sacks on Tua. If you're gonna do that,

863
00:43:47,719 --> 00:43:49,240
Speaker 2: you're just not gonna beat the Dolphins.

864
00:43:50,560 --> 00:43:53,279
Speaker 3: Yeah, just some weird plays for Buffalo. This kind of

865
00:43:53,280 --> 00:43:55,680
Speaker 3: seemed lethargic in the heat. But like you mentioned, the

866
00:43:55,719 --> 00:43:59,520
Speaker 3: Allen fumble late in the game, that's on a tush push. Basically,

867
00:44:00,080 --> 00:44:03,560
Speaker 3: Buffalo's really good at like Allen's unstoppable and he gets

868
00:44:03,600 --> 00:44:06,839
Speaker 3: through but then keeps going. That was a fifteen yard

869
00:44:07,000 --> 00:44:10,359
Speaker 3: run on a QB sneak that Alan's just running away

870
00:44:10,400 --> 00:44:13,040
Speaker 3: and then kind of pushing through guys and like, I

871
00:44:13,080 --> 00:44:15,279
Speaker 3: don't know, did Miami do that on purpose and let

872
00:44:15,360 --> 00:44:17,279
Speaker 3: him go a little further because then they stripped the

873
00:44:17,320 --> 00:44:20,240
Speaker 3: ball as he's just it's weird. There's like this pile

874
00:44:20,400 --> 00:44:25,120
Speaker 3: moving forward and a fifteen yard QB sneak turns into

875
00:44:25,360 --> 00:44:27,799
Speaker 3: a fumble that kind of basically ended the game at

876
00:44:27,840 --> 00:44:31,480
Speaker 3: that point. HM suddenly puts up like two long touchdowns

877
00:44:31,480 --> 00:44:34,400
Speaker 3: to put the game away after that, but Alan had

878
00:44:34,440 --> 00:44:38,560
Speaker 3: that play early right after halftime. The Bills drive right

879
00:44:38,600 --> 00:44:41,479
Speaker 3: down the field and Alan throws a pick like five

880
00:44:41,560 --> 00:44:44,160
Speaker 3: yards out of the end zone and it just like

881
00:44:44,520 --> 00:44:46,359
Speaker 3: again backbreaking plays.

882
00:44:46,560 --> 00:44:49,759
Speaker 1: This to me felt like the Bills of a couple

883
00:44:49,800 --> 00:44:50,600
Speaker 1: of years ago.

884
00:44:50,400 --> 00:44:53,120
Speaker 3: Where Josh Allen went a little too often in Superman

885
00:44:53,239 --> 00:44:58,040
Speaker 3: mode and then got a few Kryptonite tastes. Today, Cook

886
00:44:58,160 --> 00:45:00,319
Speaker 3: was supposed to have a big game, was a little

887
00:45:00,320 --> 00:45:02,440
Speaker 3: banged up this week, so maybe that was part of it.

888
00:45:02,840 --> 00:45:05,080
Speaker 3: He had a fumble in the red zone their one

889
00:45:05,120 --> 00:45:08,840
Speaker 3: opportunity he'd not run well. I was on Cook this game.

890
00:45:09,120 --> 00:45:11,919
Speaker 3: Miami's run defense has not been good. He just didn't

891
00:45:11,960 --> 00:45:16,040
Speaker 3: do well enough. And I know the Kincaid injury I

892
00:45:16,080 --> 00:45:20,919
Speaker 3: think is definitely a real concern. Tucker Craft with Green

893
00:45:21,000 --> 00:45:24,240
Speaker 3: Bay comes to mind. Kincaid's really important to that offense,

894
00:45:24,320 --> 00:45:28,239
Speaker 3: so I don't think he's quite Tucker Craft, but uh yeah,

895
00:45:28,440 --> 00:45:31,680
Speaker 3: just it's a concern. When you mentioned the schedule, Bill's

896
00:45:31,719 --> 00:45:35,759
Speaker 3: now play box at Houston, at Pittsburgh. They still go

897
00:45:35,800 --> 00:45:39,400
Speaker 3: to New England in December. They still play Philadelphia in December.

898
00:45:40,160 --> 00:45:44,440
Speaker 3: This to me is not a real worrying loss for

899
00:45:44,520 --> 00:45:48,480
Speaker 3: the Bills big picture. What it is is it's damaging

900
00:45:48,520 --> 00:45:51,560
Speaker 3: the division race. It's damaging in the one seed race,

901
00:45:51,600 --> 00:45:54,840
Speaker 3: it's damaging in the MVP race. All those things are combined.

902
00:45:55,480 --> 00:45:57,560
Speaker 3: And I think at this point you kind of have

903
00:45:57,560 --> 00:46:00,760
Speaker 3: to assume the Steelers are sorry that the Bills probably

904
00:46:00,800 --> 00:46:04,080
Speaker 3: are looking at five six losses. At least that probably

905
00:46:04,160 --> 00:46:08,200
Speaker 3: means a wildcard team. Because remember, while the Bills are

906
00:46:08,200 --> 00:46:11,560
Speaker 3: playing the next three weeks Tampa, Houston, and Pittsburgh, the

907
00:46:11,600 --> 00:46:16,080
Speaker 3: Patriots are playing justin fields Joe Flacko and Jackson Dart.

908
00:46:16,200 --> 00:46:20,120
Speaker 3: That's what's happening in there. So I think it's finally

909
00:46:20,200 --> 00:46:24,040
Speaker 3: time to take Patriots Division seriously and by extension, and

910
00:46:24,080 --> 00:46:26,520
Speaker 3: we'll get to it shortly. If the Patriots win the

911
00:46:26,520 --> 00:46:28,880
Speaker 3: division are one of the top two seeds, Drake may

912
00:46:28,960 --> 00:46:33,799
Speaker 3: MVP also along with that. And we keep expecting in

913
00:46:33,840 --> 00:46:38,040
Speaker 3: the AFC, like the odds keep sitting at Chief Spills, Ravens, Chiefs, Skills, Ravens.

914
00:46:38,040 --> 00:46:40,520
Speaker 3: That's fine, doesn't really matter what happens on the field.

915
00:46:40,560 --> 00:46:43,440
Speaker 3: It doesn't matter the season's half over, Chief Skills, Ravens.

916
00:46:43,440 --> 00:46:46,040
Speaker 3: It's all the teams we know well right now, Chiefs, Spills,

917
00:46:46,120 --> 00:46:48,880
Speaker 3: Ravens are probably the three wildcards in the AFC, so

918
00:46:49,280 --> 00:46:51,840
Speaker 3: it might have to start mattering at some point.

919
00:46:52,920 --> 00:46:55,040
Speaker 2: One more thing on this game. Bills lose the game.

920
00:46:55,120 --> 00:46:57,279
Speaker 2: Lose the game thirty thirteen. They were eight and a

921
00:46:57,320 --> 00:46:59,879
Speaker 2: half point favorites, so that means they fail to cover

922
00:47:00,040 --> 00:47:02,439
Speaker 2: today by twenty five and a half points, which would

923
00:47:02,440 --> 00:47:04,680
Speaker 2: be the worst margin in a game since twenty twenty

924
00:47:04,680 --> 00:47:06,720
Speaker 2: one against the Colts. I don't know if anyone remembers

925
00:47:06,760 --> 00:47:09,359
Speaker 2: that game, but they got their doors blown off that

926
00:47:09,480 --> 00:47:12,720
Speaker 2: day against that Colts team. But yeah, it's been about

927
00:47:12,719 --> 00:47:16,160
Speaker 2: four years since the Bills really felt this bad about

928
00:47:16,200 --> 00:47:19,200
Speaker 2: a game they should have won. I'll say this Buffalo

929
00:47:19,320 --> 00:47:23,960
Speaker 2: is six and three. You mentioned it, Bucks, Texans, Steelers.

930
00:47:24,280 --> 00:47:27,520
Speaker 2: If that's one and two, that can't be one and

931
00:47:27,600 --> 00:47:30,319
Speaker 2: two because I don't know, seven and five, like you

932
00:47:30,360 --> 00:47:32,839
Speaker 2: start to get into some trouble in the AFC. That's

933
00:47:32,920 --> 00:47:35,000
Speaker 2: just kind of the way I look at it. I'll

934
00:47:35,000 --> 00:47:38,520
Speaker 2: only say this very very fast because it most likely

935
00:47:38,560 --> 00:47:40,719
Speaker 2: doesn't happen. But it is kind of funny that Miami's

936
00:47:40,800 --> 00:47:44,799
Speaker 2: three and seven and they have Washington, New Orleans and

937
00:47:44,880 --> 00:47:48,720
Speaker 2: the Jets in their next three games. I mean, after

938
00:47:48,800 --> 00:47:52,200
Speaker 2: those three games, super difficult, but they also have the

939
00:47:52,320 --> 00:47:54,839
Speaker 2: third easiest strength to schedule the rest of the way.

940
00:47:55,480 --> 00:47:58,560
Speaker 2: They're eighty to one to make the playoffs. I will

941
00:47:58,600 --> 00:48:01,800
Speaker 2: just leave it at that. Buffalo interesting enough minus eighteen

942
00:48:01,920 --> 00:48:05,120
Speaker 2: hundreds to make the playoffs, about nine to one to miss,

943
00:48:05,520 --> 00:48:09,160
Speaker 2: so before they face Tampa Bay who's desperate, Houston who's desperate,

944
00:48:09,200 --> 00:48:13,200
Speaker 2: and Pittsburgh, who's going to need every single win. Interesting nonetheless,

945
00:48:13,600 --> 00:48:17,879
Speaker 2: all right, ready, keep bro that's dooe. The Ravens beat

946
00:48:17,920 --> 00:48:21,800
Speaker 2: the Vikings, sorry Brandon, twenty seven to nineteen cover minus

947
00:48:21,840 --> 00:48:24,000
Speaker 2: four and a half on the road under forty eight

948
00:48:24,160 --> 00:48:28,799
Speaker 2: and a half cashes. I mean, the Vikings lead this

949
00:48:28,880 --> 00:48:31,759
Speaker 2: game ten to three. It's seven drives into the game.

950
00:48:31,880 --> 00:48:35,359
Speaker 2: It's middle of the second quarter. Minnesota's moving the ball.

951
00:48:35,760 --> 00:48:38,680
Speaker 2: Baltimore is three punts in a field goal at this point.

952
00:48:38,840 --> 00:48:41,600
Speaker 2: And this is to me, when the entire game changes.

953
00:48:41,640 --> 00:48:45,560
Speaker 2: And I know, I'm actually curious how you feel about

954
00:48:45,560 --> 00:48:48,200
Speaker 2: this game because I looked at it and then I

955
00:48:48,280 --> 00:48:50,600
Speaker 2: reached we watched some of it. I still feel this

956
00:48:50,640 --> 00:48:53,759
Speaker 2: way that McCarthy throws the interception trying to go over

957
00:48:53,800 --> 00:48:56,520
Speaker 2: the top to Jefferson steps up into the pocket. I

958
00:48:56,520 --> 00:48:59,319
Speaker 2: watched the throw a few times, like he actually thought

959
00:48:59,400 --> 00:49:02,880
Speaker 2: Jefferson had step Starks comes in, makes the interception, and

960
00:49:02,920 --> 00:49:08,040
Speaker 2: then the game completely flips like Minnesota then goes punt interception, fumble,

961
00:49:08,239 --> 00:49:11,959
Speaker 2: turnover on downs, field goal, turnover on downs, next six

962
00:49:12,080 --> 00:49:16,400
Speaker 2: drives and then it's twenty seven thirteen Baltimore. Game completely

963
00:49:16,400 --> 00:49:19,120
Speaker 2: the other way. Minnesota's three and fourteen on third down,

964
00:49:19,560 --> 00:49:23,040
Speaker 2: thirteen penalties, one hundred and two yards, three turnovers, like

965
00:49:23,320 --> 00:49:26,040
Speaker 2: they were a mess, But it really didn't start that way.

966
00:49:26,120 --> 00:49:27,840
Speaker 2: So what do you feel, How do you feel with

967
00:49:27,880 --> 00:49:28,320
Speaker 2: this one.

968
00:49:28,760 --> 00:49:31,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, I kind of have similar notes. Opening drive seven

969
00:49:31,640 --> 00:49:34,879
Speaker 3: plays eighty six yards, touchdown, Like exactly what you want.

970
00:49:34,920 --> 00:49:37,200
Speaker 3: These are the script plays that you practiced all a week.

971
00:49:37,400 --> 00:49:40,720
Speaker 3: That's one drive eighty six yards, the next eight drives

972
00:49:40,960 --> 00:49:44,800
Speaker 3: ninety four yards combined on twenty seven plays three points.

973
00:49:45,120 --> 00:49:48,279
Speaker 3: So one drive goes great and then that's it. Really

974
00:49:48,360 --> 00:49:51,120
Speaker 3: untel kind of what I wasn't quite garbage time, but

975
00:49:51,239 --> 00:49:54,520
Speaker 3: pretty close to it. And really I think the Ravens

976
00:49:54,560 --> 00:49:57,200
Speaker 3: were kind of unlucky you'd only have twenty seven points. Also,

977
00:49:57,840 --> 00:50:00,360
Speaker 3: I think if you had the under, if you had

978
00:50:00,400 --> 00:50:03,520
Speaker 3: the over here, I think you're pretty unlucky to miss

979
00:50:03,560 --> 00:50:06,600
Speaker 3: this one. Baltimore goes two to five in the red zone.

980
00:50:06,920 --> 00:50:09,200
Speaker 3: They missed the field goal as well. I think this

981
00:50:09,320 --> 00:50:12,640
Speaker 3: game could have easily had like sixty seventy points if

982
00:50:12,640 --> 00:50:17,520
Speaker 3: things flip a little bit differently. Baltimore had the Vikings

983
00:50:17,560 --> 00:50:20,560
Speaker 3: had two of five on fourth down, three or fourteen

984
00:50:20,680 --> 00:50:26,680
Speaker 3: on third down. Jordan Addison and Justin Jefferson twenty three targets,

985
00:50:26,719 --> 00:50:30,239
Speaker 3: seven catches. You can't have that ratio. That's not enough

986
00:50:30,239 --> 00:50:32,960
Speaker 3: catches on so many targets. And it's a weird thing

987
00:50:33,000 --> 00:50:35,000
Speaker 3: with McCarthy that a lot of Vikings fans are kind

988
00:50:35,040 --> 00:50:37,920
Speaker 3: of focusing in on. He seems to come in ready

989
00:50:37,960 --> 00:50:41,720
Speaker 3: for the game, and then his adrenaline is like ramping

990
00:50:41,800 --> 00:50:44,200
Speaker 3: up more and more as the game goes on, and

991
00:50:44,239 --> 00:50:46,920
Speaker 3: the overthrows and accuracy get worse and worse as the

992
00:50:46,960 --> 00:50:49,840
Speaker 3: game goes on. Some of the stats are pretty strange,

993
00:50:50,200 --> 00:50:52,319
Speaker 3: and it goes like second, third, fourth quarter, it goes

994
00:50:52,400 --> 00:50:56,240
Speaker 3: keeps going up. You mentioned the penalties. The Vikings at

995
00:50:56,360 --> 00:50:59,760
Speaker 3: home had eight false starts.

996
00:50:59,400 --> 00:51:00,160
Speaker 1: In this game.

997
00:51:00,920 --> 00:51:04,280
Speaker 3: You did not get false starts at home. The Vikings

998
00:51:04,360 --> 00:51:06,680
Speaker 3: is one of the few teams that I still count

999
00:51:06,760 --> 00:51:10,000
Speaker 3: in a pretty true home field advantage for it's a

1000
00:51:10,080 --> 00:51:13,400
Speaker 3: loud stadium. You're not supposed to be loud to your

1001
00:51:13,440 --> 00:51:16,600
Speaker 3: own team and get eight fallse starts. It's the most

1002
00:51:16,880 --> 00:51:19,600
Speaker 3: for a home team since two thousand and nine. That

1003
00:51:20,160 --> 00:51:22,840
Speaker 3: was not great crazy stat from this game. On the

1004
00:51:22,840 --> 00:51:25,640
Speaker 3: other side, frankly, I don't really feel like the Ravens

1005
00:51:25,640 --> 00:51:27,759
Speaker 3: were amazing in this game. Like I don't feel like

1006
00:51:27,760 --> 00:51:29,759
Speaker 3: I should be like, oh, yeah, the Ravens aren't back now.

1007
00:51:29,760 --> 00:51:31,960
Speaker 1: They kind of just been grinding a little bit for

1008
00:51:31,960 --> 00:51:33,600
Speaker 1: a few weeks. But here's a crazy.

1009
00:51:33,320 --> 00:51:37,880
Speaker 3: Derrick Henry stat. Do you know that today, finally, for

1010
00:51:37,960 --> 00:51:41,600
Speaker 3: the first day in his life, Derrick Henry has more

1011
00:51:42,120 --> 00:51:44,560
Speaker 3: rushing yards in the NFL than he did in his

1012
00:51:44,640 --> 00:51:48,840
Speaker 3: high school career. His high school career, he had twelve

1013
00:51:48,920 --> 00:51:52,640
Speaker 3: thousand and one twenty four. It took until year ten

1014
00:51:53,120 --> 00:51:56,279
Speaker 3: of a presumably Hall of Fame career for him to

1015
00:51:56,320 --> 00:51:59,440
Speaker 3: finally pass his for year high school career. That's just

1016
00:51:59,480 --> 00:52:00,400
Speaker 3: pretty crazy even me.

1017
00:52:01,280 --> 00:52:03,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, his watch is officially ended as of today. With

1018
00:52:03,960 --> 00:52:07,279
Speaker 2: that stat passing the other one, I thought was kind

1019
00:52:07,280 --> 00:52:10,560
Speaker 2: of interesting. So the Vikings turned to now owen six

1020
00:52:10,600 --> 00:52:14,680
Speaker 2: against the spread under Kevin O'Connell after facing the Lions,

1021
00:52:15,560 --> 00:52:17,799
Speaker 2: which is something I looked at, but it seemed that

1022
00:52:17,880 --> 00:52:21,280
Speaker 2: they were just a little flat after a pretty decent

1023
00:52:21,400 --> 00:52:25,960
Speaker 2: scripted start in this one. Also from Baltimore's standpoint, it's

1024
00:52:25,960 --> 00:52:28,560
Speaker 2: gonna be really fun. Their schedule coming up is pretty

1025
00:52:28,600 --> 00:52:31,719
Speaker 2: damn easy, and it's great that they need to go

1026
00:52:31,880 --> 00:52:34,319
Speaker 2: ten and zero to end the season to go over

1027
00:52:34,360 --> 00:52:38,120
Speaker 2: their win total. They've now already won two straight and

1028
00:52:38,160 --> 00:52:41,680
Speaker 2: they have Cleveland, the Jets, and Cincinnati coming up in

1029
00:52:41,680 --> 00:52:45,319
Speaker 2: their next three games, all very winnable. So as that

1030
00:52:45,440 --> 00:52:47,719
Speaker 2: gets closer. I just kind of root for things of

1031
00:52:47,760 --> 00:52:50,320
Speaker 2: that nature. But yeah, the reason the division odds have

1032
00:52:50,400 --> 00:52:54,719
Speaker 2: flipped is also Baltimore's schedule just kind of handing them

1033
00:52:54,800 --> 00:52:57,480
Speaker 2: some pretty easy games. And I'll say this, so I

1034
00:52:57,560 --> 00:53:02,360
Speaker 2: mentioned those teams, Cleveland, Jets, Cincinnati. Lamar Jackson is twenty

1035
00:53:02,400 --> 00:53:05,400
Speaker 2: one and five straight up versus those three teams in

1036
00:53:05,440 --> 00:53:08,600
Speaker 2: his career, So at this point you're kind of just

1037
00:53:08,680 --> 00:53:11,360
Speaker 2: making the assumption that Baltimore is at least gonna go

1038
00:53:11,400 --> 00:53:14,160
Speaker 2: too in one in those games, probably three and oh,

1039
00:53:14,320 --> 00:53:19,040
Speaker 2: but there is precedence there. What do you think about

1040
00:53:19,080 --> 00:53:22,120
Speaker 2: just the future with I mean, the Vikings I think

1041
00:53:22,200 --> 00:53:24,720
Speaker 2: are probably done, except for the funny thing is they

1042
00:53:24,760 --> 00:53:27,280
Speaker 2: are two to zero in division, which kind of throws

1043
00:53:27,320 --> 00:53:31,560
Speaker 2: everything off. But their schedule. The thing that sucked for Minnesota,

1044
00:53:31,600 --> 00:53:33,600
Speaker 2: and you probably won't know this more than anyone. They

1045
00:53:33,640 --> 00:53:35,920
Speaker 2: were three and two straight up. They then had to

1046
00:53:35,960 --> 00:53:39,680
Speaker 2: face Philly, the Chargers, the Lions, the Ravens, the Bears,

1047
00:53:39,680 --> 00:53:43,160
Speaker 2: the Packers, and the Seahawks. Like that's just not fair

1048
00:53:43,200 --> 00:53:44,640
Speaker 2: and kind of why they're hitting a bump.

1049
00:53:45,800 --> 00:53:47,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, we're gonna do the Bears game next.

1050
00:53:47,920 --> 00:53:51,040
Speaker 3: For both of those teams Vikings and Bears. It was

1051
00:53:51,120 --> 00:53:54,080
Speaker 3: teams that by all logic going into the year would

1052
00:53:54,200 --> 00:53:57,400
Speaker 3: make sense to start slow. You're getting a young quarterback,

1053
00:53:57,480 --> 00:54:00,640
Speaker 3: you're getting a new coaching staff. For the Bears, you're

1054
00:54:00,680 --> 00:54:03,600
Speaker 3: getting new and it's going to take a little to

1055
00:54:03,640 --> 00:54:07,040
Speaker 3: figure that out. But the schedule was only really soft

1056
00:54:07,080 --> 00:54:09,040
Speaker 3: at the opening of the year for both teams, and

1057
00:54:09,080 --> 00:54:11,440
Speaker 3: it was getting brutal later for both and it is

1058
00:54:11,480 --> 00:54:15,080
Speaker 3: for Chicago as well too, So Chicago is getting some wins.

1059
00:54:15,120 --> 00:54:18,560
Speaker 3: But both of these teams kind of needed to bank

1060
00:54:18,760 --> 00:54:19,560
Speaker 3: wins early.

1061
00:54:19,920 --> 00:54:20,800
Speaker 2: They played Week.

1062
00:54:20,680 --> 00:54:23,160
Speaker 3: One right, so they needed both to get that first

1063
00:54:23,239 --> 00:54:26,480
Speaker 3: win and they needed to get some wins early, and

1064
00:54:26,560 --> 00:54:29,640
Speaker 3: Minnesota just didn't do it. And look, I wore the

1065
00:54:29,680 --> 00:54:33,160
Speaker 3: Carson Wentz Jersey how many times like JJ goes out

1066
00:54:33,200 --> 00:54:36,920
Speaker 3: after two games. In hindsight, that probably was the season.

1067
00:54:37,040 --> 00:54:39,359
Speaker 3: Like I don't know why, I don't know that he's

1068
00:54:39,400 --> 00:54:41,560
Speaker 3: ready to be a playoff quarterback.

1069
00:54:41,080 --> 00:54:42,839
Speaker 1: In the NFC. The way he looks, he's not.

1070
00:54:43,200 --> 00:54:45,000
Speaker 3: But the way he looks is still only like five

1071
00:54:45,040 --> 00:54:49,240
Speaker 3: games in his career, and you lose those games without

1072
00:54:49,440 --> 00:54:51,279
Speaker 3: him on the field that maybe you get an extra

1073
00:54:51,320 --> 00:54:54,200
Speaker 3: win or to but you also lose that extra month

1074
00:54:54,239 --> 00:54:57,120
Speaker 3: of JJ playing football and kind of getting a chance

1075
00:54:57,160 --> 00:54:59,840
Speaker 3: to figure some of the stuff out. I think now,

1076
00:55:00,440 --> 00:55:04,839
Speaker 3: I think you're right, Like this season becomes what can

1077
00:55:04,880 --> 00:55:07,000
Speaker 3: the Vikings do to find out what do they have

1078
00:55:07,200 --> 00:55:10,000
Speaker 3: in JJ McCarthy And is he the guy that you

1079
00:55:10,040 --> 00:55:12,640
Speaker 3: can go into next year or do you have to

1080
00:55:12,680 --> 00:55:15,760
Speaker 3: go out and get a Sam Darnold or a Daniel Jones?

1081
00:55:16,000 --> 00:55:18,880
Speaker 3: But whatever next year's version is of that guy somebody

1082
00:55:18,880 --> 00:55:21,760
Speaker 3: to compete with them? Or is he your guy going forward?

1083
00:55:21,800 --> 00:55:24,560
Speaker 3: And right now, I don't think you can say he's

1084
00:55:24,640 --> 00:55:26,960
Speaker 3: not the guy. It's too early to tell that, but

1085
00:55:26,960 --> 00:55:29,520
Speaker 3: I don't think they can feel confidence he is. And

1086
00:55:30,360 --> 00:55:33,040
Speaker 3: I guess too to transition us to our next game

1087
00:55:33,120 --> 00:55:37,680
Speaker 3: like that, that is a distinct comparison to Caleb Williams,

1088
00:55:37,719 --> 00:55:39,879
Speaker 3: So I think is kind of showing maybe he is.

1089
00:55:39,840 --> 00:55:41,880
Speaker 1: The guy really for the Bears. What do you think?

1090
00:55:43,480 --> 00:55:46,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, So let's just set that up. So let's Chicago

1091
00:55:46,840 --> 00:55:49,800
Speaker 2: next week is at Minnesota, and of course Chicago wins

1092
00:55:49,840 --> 00:55:53,080
Speaker 2: the game today twenty four to twenty Giants and Tom

1093
00:55:53,120 --> 00:55:55,520
Speaker 2: cover and close four and a half total under forty

1094
00:55:55,560 --> 00:55:58,799
Speaker 2: four and a half. I mean, I think you know,

1095
00:55:59,040 --> 00:56:01,840
Speaker 2: Chicago is what it is in terms of the comeback,

1096
00:56:02,320 --> 00:56:04,439
Speaker 2: and I think that game kind of flips when Dark

1097
00:56:04,520 --> 00:56:06,760
Speaker 2: goes out of the game. But I think it really

1098
00:56:06,800 --> 00:56:10,120
Speaker 2: just sets up again next week. Like I think Minnesota

1099
00:56:10,160 --> 00:56:14,759
Speaker 2: and Chicago almost becomes a way more just important matchup

1100
00:56:15,160 --> 00:56:17,919
Speaker 2: for I mean, obviously Chicago just needs to keep winning,

1101
00:56:17,960 --> 00:56:21,640
Speaker 2: but Minnesota's season probably on the line after the loss today.

1102
00:56:22,360 --> 00:56:25,880
Speaker 2: But what do you make of both Giants Bears and

1103
00:56:25,960 --> 00:56:27,200
Speaker 2: kind of the matchup next week?

1104
00:56:27,680 --> 00:56:30,799
Speaker 3: Yeah, this sort of feels like a loser goes home

1105
00:56:30,880 --> 00:56:34,640
Speaker 3: sort of matchup, like WW styles. I think both have

1106
00:56:34,760 --> 00:56:37,080
Speaker 3: to have it. It feels like a game that I'm

1107
00:56:37,080 --> 00:56:39,040
Speaker 3: not going to be super excited to bet, just because

1108
00:56:39,080 --> 00:56:42,680
Speaker 3: both teams have been pretty unpredictable. And you know, I'll

1109
00:56:42,680 --> 00:56:45,240
Speaker 3: be honest, I'm not reading the vikings that well this season,

1110
00:56:45,239 --> 00:56:46,120
Speaker 3: which is often the case.

1111
00:56:46,280 --> 00:56:48,040
Speaker 1: I don't love betting my team. My heart gets in

1112
00:56:48,080 --> 00:56:48,839
Speaker 1: the way a little bit.

1113
00:56:49,320 --> 00:56:53,200
Speaker 3: But yeah, I feel like Giants here, I don't know

1114
00:56:53,239 --> 00:56:56,200
Speaker 3: how much long and keep dable around. Like this is

1115
00:56:56,280 --> 00:56:58,400
Speaker 3: now the fourth time the season the Giants have led

1116
00:56:58,440 --> 00:57:00,920
Speaker 3: by double digits in the fourth quarter on the road.

1117
00:57:01,600 --> 00:57:04,480
Speaker 3: They are zero to four in those games straight up,

1118
00:57:04,640 --> 00:57:08,960
Speaker 3: so you keep losing. They had War's in the notes.

1119
00:57:09,000 --> 00:57:11,520
Speaker 3: They had fourth and one on the one yard line,

1120
00:57:11,960 --> 00:57:13,720
Speaker 3: up seven ten minutes left.

1121
00:57:14,040 --> 00:57:17,760
Speaker 1: You're the Giants. You're not going anywhere. Why you kicking

1122
00:57:17,800 --> 00:57:18,680
Speaker 1: a field goal.

1123
00:57:18,560 --> 00:57:21,280
Speaker 3: On that play? And of course the Bears come all

1124
00:57:21,280 --> 00:57:24,040
Speaker 3: the way back after that. I think, to me, the

1125
00:57:24,080 --> 00:57:27,440
Speaker 3: takeaway from the game kind of a dreary game. Mostly

1126
00:57:27,560 --> 00:57:30,840
Speaker 3: is sort of a dreary day in Chicagoland. Jackson darts

1127
00:57:30,880 --> 00:57:33,640
Speaker 3: injury has to be the story leaves with the concussion,

1128
00:57:34,120 --> 00:57:37,040
Speaker 3: two touchdowns rushing, like, that's the thing is he's getting

1129
00:57:37,080 --> 00:57:38,920
Speaker 3: his value on the ground, but you get your value

1130
00:57:38,960 --> 00:57:41,120
Speaker 3: on the ground, you also get hit when you're on

1131
00:57:41,200 --> 00:57:45,120
Speaker 3: the ground. So I think that's the worry. Because Russell

1132
00:57:45,120 --> 00:57:48,720
Speaker 3: Wilson came in and was awful, awful, awful on not

1133
00:57:48,800 --> 00:57:53,560
Speaker 3: a lot of plays. But the Giants play the Packers

1134
00:57:53,600 --> 00:57:56,640
Speaker 3: next week. Packers don't love Russell Wilson. They've had a

1135
00:57:56,680 --> 00:57:58,760
Speaker 3: few matchups in their career. They might be sending Russ

1136
00:57:58,760 --> 00:58:01,920
Speaker 3: in the early retirement. If I'm the Giants and if

1137
00:58:02,040 --> 00:58:05,080
Speaker 3: Dart is out and usually concussion, you probably miss the week.

1138
00:58:05,120 --> 00:58:06,560
Speaker 1: CG. Stroud just missed a game.

1139
00:58:07,800 --> 00:58:10,800
Speaker 3: I think Dart probably doesn't play if I'm the Giants

1140
00:58:10,840 --> 00:58:12,760
Speaker 3: and I actually want to compete, and maybe they don't

1141
00:58:12,760 --> 00:58:13,800
Speaker 3: want to compete, maybe.

1142
00:58:13,600 --> 00:58:14,440
Speaker 1: They'd like to lose.

1143
00:58:14,720 --> 00:58:18,280
Speaker 3: Hello, Russell Will said, Jamis Winston's on the roster, Like,

1144
00:58:18,320 --> 00:58:20,960
Speaker 3: if I want to actually compete, I'd rather have Jamis

1145
00:58:20,960 --> 00:58:22,240
Speaker 3: out there this point than the Ross.

1146
00:58:22,240 --> 00:58:23,720
Speaker 1: So I think it.

1147
00:58:24,160 --> 00:58:26,120
Speaker 3: Maybe it could be a gift for the Packers who

1148
00:58:26,160 --> 00:58:28,040
Speaker 3: will come in on a short week. We'll get to

1149
00:58:28,040 --> 00:58:31,000
Speaker 3: that big Packers Eagles game shortly here. But yeah, I

1150
00:58:31,040 --> 00:58:34,720
Speaker 3: think Jackson Dart missing and it is too Maybe the

1151
00:58:34,760 --> 00:58:37,680
Speaker 3: story from a futures standpoint, it will now be a

1152
00:58:37,720 --> 00:58:40,120
Speaker 3: third game Dart doesn't play because obviously didn't play the

1153
00:58:40,120 --> 00:58:43,040
Speaker 3: first two to start the year. Maybe Rookie of the

1154
00:58:43,120 --> 00:58:45,520
Speaker 3: Year is open still and Macha Agbu cut another good

1155
00:58:45,560 --> 00:58:48,880
Speaker 3: game today. Tyler Warren confines to play well. If Dart

1156
00:58:48,880 --> 00:58:52,520
Speaker 3: misses a game or even potentially one concussion, you get

1157
00:58:52,560 --> 00:58:55,320
Speaker 3: a second hit later, you might miss three four games

1158
00:58:55,320 --> 00:58:58,280
Speaker 3: after that, especially as the franchise quarterback, when your season

1159
00:58:58,600 --> 00:59:01,919
Speaker 3: as a team is done. Like that, to me, might

1160
00:59:01,960 --> 00:59:04,800
Speaker 3: be the story here from a petting standpoint, that maybe

1161
00:59:04,840 --> 00:59:06,800
Speaker 3: there's some value and Workie of the year down the

1162
00:59:06,800 --> 00:59:09,520
Speaker 3: line where Dart is pretty clearly the favorite at this point,

1163
00:59:09,600 --> 00:59:11,800
Speaker 3: but this injury might open up that race.

1164
00:59:12,880 --> 00:59:16,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, updated out there, Abuca is minus one oh five

1165
00:59:17,200 --> 00:59:19,800
Speaker 2: Dart plus one forty, which has flipped. Dart was the

1166
00:59:19,840 --> 00:59:22,200
Speaker 2: favorite I believe entering this week, and had been for

1167
00:59:22,240 --> 00:59:25,440
Speaker 2: a little while. Third option Tyler Warren plus five fifty.

1168
00:59:25,480 --> 00:59:28,800
Speaker 2: Then you get Dunkins, McMillan, and genty, but I think

1169
00:59:28,840 --> 00:59:32,160
Speaker 2: it's probably a two horse race. Be interesting how good

1170
00:59:32,200 --> 00:59:34,400
Speaker 2: Warren would have to play to get involved, Like you

1171
00:59:34,440 --> 00:59:38,000
Speaker 2: probably need more bucks, pass catchers and Dart to miss

1172
00:59:38,000 --> 00:59:40,720
Speaker 2: a few more games. But Warren is an intriguing option.

1173
00:59:40,920 --> 00:59:42,760
Speaker 2: One thing I will say is this, and I said

1174
00:59:42,760 --> 00:59:46,240
Speaker 2: this earlier on the favorites. I just I'm a Giants fan,

1175
00:59:46,360 --> 00:59:48,600
Speaker 2: so I think you want them to lose games being

1176
00:59:48,600 --> 00:59:52,080
Speaker 2: a fan in this situation, especially with Neighbors and Scatterbow

1177
00:59:52,160 --> 00:59:54,520
Speaker 2: and Dart, like, let's just start over and get a

1178
00:59:54,520 --> 00:59:59,120
Speaker 2: better pick. But Russ comes in for eleven plays minus

1179
00:59:59,160 --> 01:00:02,760
Speaker 2: three point nine total EPA in eleven plays with a

1180
01:00:02,920 --> 01:00:06,520
Speaker 2: two A dot, like you literally come into the game.

1181
01:00:06,680 --> 01:00:10,880
Speaker 2: Giants go three and out three and out. Russ scrambles

1182
01:00:10,880 --> 01:00:13,080
Speaker 2: for eleven yards and then he goes five and out

1183
01:00:13,120 --> 01:00:16,360
Speaker 2: and then the game ends. That's how the game ended,

1184
01:00:16,760 --> 01:00:19,800
Speaker 2: and the Bears came back from down ten points. Just

1185
01:00:20,480 --> 01:00:25,400
Speaker 2: literally unbelievable. I will say from Chicago's standpoint, something really key,

1186
01:00:25,640 --> 01:00:28,760
Speaker 2: which is super simple. I mean, Caleb wasn't sacked in

1187
01:00:28,760 --> 01:00:30,680
Speaker 2: this game. So when you look at a box score

1188
01:00:30,760 --> 01:00:32,600
Speaker 2: and you look at the Bears, and we've talked about

1189
01:00:32,600 --> 01:00:36,320
Speaker 2: this multiple times, you see zero sacks. It's just a

1190
01:00:36,480 --> 01:00:40,080
Speaker 2: really important thing for Chicago. It's important for every team,

1191
01:00:40,560 --> 01:00:42,680
Speaker 2: but when I watch Chicago, I feel like that's the

1192
01:00:42,680 --> 01:00:45,400
Speaker 2: one thing I pay attention to Chicago Now. Last two

1193
01:00:45,400 --> 01:00:47,680
Speaker 2: seasons eight and five straight up with two sacks are

1194
01:00:47,760 --> 01:00:51,200
Speaker 2: less three and ten. When they get sacked three plus times,

1195
01:00:51,440 --> 01:00:55,280
Speaker 2: it really just interrupts drives for them. And today no sacks.

1196
01:00:55,680 --> 01:00:58,360
Speaker 2: Really good job. So that's one of my notes.

1197
01:00:58,440 --> 01:01:02,480
Speaker 3: Anything else here, Yeah, I mean I just thought Caleb

1198
01:01:02,520 --> 01:01:04,840
Speaker 3: looked great down the stretch, like all the plays you

1199
01:01:04,920 --> 01:01:07,960
Speaker 3: want your franchise number one guy to make. He obviously

1200
01:01:08,040 --> 01:01:10,160
Speaker 3: runs in the score to get the win, but it

1201
01:01:10,320 --> 01:01:13,360
Speaker 3: just the way that he's improved pocket presence, the way

1202
01:01:13,360 --> 01:01:16,520
Speaker 3: that he's navigating it, getting away from pressure, hitting the

1203
01:01:16,560 --> 01:01:20,000
Speaker 3: big throws. He's been up and down, and it's fine.

1204
01:01:20,040 --> 01:01:21,800
Speaker 3: He's a young quarterback. He's going to be that. But

1205
01:01:22,360 --> 01:01:25,560
Speaker 3: to me, really past the eye test today. And you know,

1206
01:01:25,680 --> 01:01:28,600
Speaker 3: of course, you would rather just win easily if you're

1207
01:01:28,640 --> 01:01:31,960
Speaker 3: the Bears, But the Bears normally lose this game, Like

1208
01:01:32,000 --> 01:01:34,000
Speaker 3: this is the sort of game that the Bears are

1209
01:01:34,080 --> 01:01:36,439
Speaker 3: kind of feeling themselves and then they lose a game

1210
01:01:36,480 --> 01:01:39,160
Speaker 3: against the Giants that you have to have. This is

1211
01:01:39,160 --> 01:01:41,760
Speaker 3: a little different. Maybe maybe you go get these wins now.

1212
01:01:42,120 --> 01:01:44,640
Speaker 3: And Chicago's still kind of staying in the mix, obviously

1213
01:01:45,120 --> 01:01:47,520
Speaker 3: outside the playoff race at the moment, in a really

1214
01:01:47,520 --> 01:01:50,400
Speaker 3: tough schedule coming up, but this is maybe one of

1215
01:01:50,440 --> 01:01:53,640
Speaker 3: those moments for the team that even if you don't

1216
01:01:53,680 --> 01:01:56,760
Speaker 3: make the playoffs this year, you know, when Caleb and

1217
01:01:56,800 --> 01:01:59,720
Speaker 3: Ben Johnson make the playoffs, maybe next year. This is

1218
01:01:59,760 --> 01:02:01,560
Speaker 3: one of those games you hear I'm talking about that

1219
01:02:01,680 --> 01:02:04,600
Speaker 3: like that was a turning point for this franchise perhaps

1220
01:02:04,640 --> 01:02:05,280
Speaker 3: going forward.

1221
01:02:06,440 --> 01:02:09,080
Speaker 2: This is how big it was. Chicago has won three

1222
01:02:09,080 --> 01:02:11,920
Speaker 2: of their last four games when trailing into the fourth quarter,

1223
01:02:12,080 --> 01:02:15,280
Speaker 2: so they have been the comeback kids, and right now

1224
01:02:15,360 --> 01:02:18,280
Speaker 2: they have the hardest remaining strength to schedule almost fifty

1225
01:02:18,360 --> 01:02:21,040
Speaker 2: eight percent in terms of their opponents. So that's how

1226
01:02:21,080 --> 01:02:23,960
Speaker 2: big today's game was. They just keep stacking these wins

1227
01:02:23,960 --> 01:02:25,840
Speaker 2: that they shouldn't get. They're just going to find their

1228
01:02:25,880 --> 01:02:27,520
Speaker 2: way into the playoffs. I mean I looked a little

1229
01:02:27,560 --> 01:02:30,280
Speaker 2: bit ago. I believe they're plus one point fifty. It's

1230
01:02:30,280 --> 01:02:33,600
Speaker 2: a coin flip. I mean, the Jaguars today lost and

1231
01:02:33,640 --> 01:02:35,640
Speaker 2: we think they're done, and the Jaguars are around a

1232
01:02:35,680 --> 01:02:39,240
Speaker 2: coin flip. So with Chicago, anything can happen. All right,

1233
01:02:39,680 --> 01:02:41,840
Speaker 2: last game here before, we just roll through some scores,

1234
01:02:41,880 --> 01:02:44,680
Speaker 2: but Rams win the game forty two to twenty six.

1235
01:02:45,200 --> 01:02:47,560
Speaker 2: They cover minus five and a half on the road,

1236
01:02:47,760 --> 01:02:51,440
Speaker 2: total goes over forty nine and a half. The injury front,

1237
01:02:51,520 --> 01:02:54,880
Speaker 2: DeVante Adams oblique. He seemed all right. I believe he's

1238
01:02:54,880 --> 01:02:58,080
Speaker 2: gonna be okay, But obviously with this team, definitely something

1239
01:02:58,120 --> 01:03:01,280
Speaker 2: to look for, especially with Seattle and Tampa Bay and

1240
01:03:01,600 --> 01:03:03,880
Speaker 2: Carolina on deck. I guess I can say Caroline is

1241
01:03:03,880 --> 01:03:07,720
Speaker 2: a big game for anyone now. But this is our

1242
01:03:07,800 --> 01:03:10,400
Speaker 2: first chance to talk to four PM Slate, which I'm

1243
01:03:10,680 --> 01:03:13,760
Speaker 2: that really just does say something about how great that

1244
01:03:13,800 --> 01:03:16,520
Speaker 2: three pm slot, that three game four PM Slate was,

1245
01:03:16,560 --> 01:03:20,240
Speaker 2: which was absolutely goddamn terrible, But well, if San Francisco

1246
01:03:20,280 --> 01:03:23,400
Speaker 2: gets within a touchdown actually twice in the second half,

1247
01:03:23,400 --> 01:03:25,760
Speaker 2: this was the type of game where I think when

1248
01:03:25,800 --> 01:03:28,640
Speaker 2: you were just looking at the score, you said to yourself, oh, well,

1249
01:03:28,680 --> 01:03:31,240
Speaker 2: how are they within eight or how were they within seven?

1250
01:03:31,240 --> 01:03:34,080
Speaker 2: Because it did happen twice in the second half after

1251
01:03:34,120 --> 01:03:38,640
Speaker 2: the Rams led twenty one. Nothing, but all my notes

1252
01:03:38,640 --> 01:03:41,160
Speaker 2: were and I kind of knew this going in. After

1253
01:03:41,680 --> 01:03:44,720
Speaker 2: the Rams had been upset by the Niners in Week five,

1254
01:03:45,120 --> 01:03:47,440
Speaker 2: you knew McVeigh was going to have them ready today

1255
01:03:47,480 --> 01:03:51,480
Speaker 2: the Rams, no penalties, no turnovers, five of six in

1256
01:03:51,520 --> 01:03:52,960
Speaker 2: the red zone. Enough said.

1257
01:03:54,360 --> 01:03:57,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, the Rams, this was just like a masterclass of

1258
01:03:57,400 --> 01:04:00,959
Speaker 3: stats for them. They have sixty three percent success.

1259
01:04:00,680 --> 01:04:01,480
Speaker 1: Rate on the game.

1260
01:04:01,840 --> 01:04:04,640
Speaker 3: If you've got series success rate, so the series is

1261
01:04:04,680 --> 01:04:07,280
Speaker 3: a new first down, so set it downs. How often

1262
01:04:07,280 --> 01:04:10,480
Speaker 3: do you get another first down or touchdown? Ninety three

1263
01:04:10,600 --> 01:04:14,480
Speaker 3: percent series success rate for the Rams, So basically every

1264
01:04:14,560 --> 01:04:18,120
Speaker 3: time they got another first down or scored six yards

1265
01:04:18,120 --> 01:04:22,760
Speaker 3: of play, thirty one first downs, zero penalties, zero turnovers.

1266
01:04:22,840 --> 01:04:27,080
Speaker 3: That is just a total domination against Again the defense

1267
01:04:27,160 --> 01:04:29,000
Speaker 3: that have been calling the worst defense in the League,

1268
01:04:29,000 --> 01:04:31,960
Speaker 3: given the bodies that are left in San Francisco and

1269
01:04:32,880 --> 01:04:36,360
Speaker 3: the Rams. Interesting note with them, especially with Devanta Adams

1270
01:04:36,360 --> 01:04:38,640
Speaker 3: if he ends up missing any time at all, they

1271
01:04:38,640 --> 01:04:41,880
Speaker 3: have been playing increasingly more and more. We talked about

1272
01:04:41,880 --> 01:04:45,840
Speaker 3: this earlier heavy personnel. The Rams started playing thirteen personnel

1273
01:04:45,880 --> 01:04:48,320
Speaker 3: a few weeks ago. So thirteen the one in the

1274
01:04:48,320 --> 01:04:51,760
Speaker 3: three means one running back. Three tight ends the Rams.

1275
01:04:51,960 --> 01:04:55,439
Speaker 3: Sean mcvay's Rams, who for years played eleven like every

1276
01:04:55,440 --> 01:04:58,360
Speaker 3: single play on the field, are playing three tight ends

1277
01:04:58,600 --> 01:05:03,560
Speaker 3: today forty five of their plays, so half their plays. Basically,

1278
01:05:03,800 --> 01:05:05,880
Speaker 3: it's the second most by any team in any game

1279
01:05:05,920 --> 01:05:09,160
Speaker 3: since twenty sixteen, with three tight ends on the field

1280
01:05:09,600 --> 01:05:12,360
Speaker 3: three straight games, thirty eight percent or higher for the Rams.

1281
01:05:12,480 --> 01:05:15,720
Speaker 3: Here's what happened in those just the thirteen plays this game,

1282
01:05:15,840 --> 01:05:20,160
Speaker 3: thirteen personnel, six point seven yards of play, sixty three

1283
01:05:20,200 --> 01:05:24,360
Speaker 3: percent success rate, twenty percent explosive. So more and more

1284
01:05:24,480 --> 01:05:27,439
Speaker 3: like this is the thing we talked Ram Seahawks. That's

1285
01:05:27,480 --> 01:05:31,000
Speaker 3: the matchup next week. When we watched Seattle in primetime

1286
01:05:31,080 --> 01:05:34,000
Speaker 3: last week, what did they do? They go heavy, They

1287
01:05:34,080 --> 01:05:36,280
Speaker 3: put the tight ends and the big guys on the field,

1288
01:05:36,640 --> 01:05:39,400
Speaker 3: but then they pass and they go downfield, they're they're

1289
01:05:39,560 --> 01:05:43,600
Speaker 3: bating the defense to match with their big guys have

1290
01:05:43,680 --> 01:05:46,600
Speaker 3: less defensive backs, and then they're passing right over top

1291
01:05:46,680 --> 01:05:49,800
Speaker 3: of it, and that leads us. Finally, we teased it

1292
01:05:50,240 --> 01:05:54,000
Speaker 3: to our MVP conversation because Matthew Stafford for a third

1293
01:05:54,040 --> 01:05:58,000
Speaker 3: straight game, four touchdowns, no interceptions. Here's a list of

1294
01:05:58,040 --> 01:05:59,800
Speaker 3: players who have done that in NFL history.

1295
01:06:01,000 --> 01:06:01,320
Speaker 2: That's it.

1296
01:06:01,520 --> 01:06:05,320
Speaker 3: There's nobody, It's just Stafford. He's the only one twenty

1297
01:06:05,360 --> 01:06:09,560
Speaker 3: five touchdowns, two picks for the year, they have two losses.

1298
01:06:10,400 --> 01:06:13,440
Speaker 3: I think Matthew Stafford's the MVP right now, and I

1299
01:06:13,480 --> 01:06:17,439
Speaker 3: think the MVP race needs to include him. We as

1300
01:06:17,480 --> 01:06:22,560
Speaker 3: we're recording sponsored by DraftKings, we've talked just before the show, odds.

1301
01:06:22,240 --> 01:06:23,240
Speaker 1: Were not up. Odds are up.

1302
01:06:23,280 --> 01:06:25,400
Speaker 3: No, Evan, I'm gonna read them for us. Here's the

1303
01:06:25,520 --> 01:06:30,280
Speaker 3: MVP odds leaders at our sponsored DraftKings. Drake May plus

1304
01:06:30,480 --> 01:06:35,200
Speaker 3: two seventy five. Ever slightly, I have Matthew Stafford three

1305
01:06:35,240 --> 01:06:39,240
Speaker 3: to one. Then Patrick Mahomes, who's barely above five hundred,

1306
01:06:39,640 --> 01:06:43,360
Speaker 3: is exactly at plus five hundred in MVP. Jonathan Taylor.

1307
01:06:43,480 --> 01:06:47,320
Speaker 3: We mentioned running backs matter now six to one for him,

1308
01:06:47,840 --> 01:06:50,520
Speaker 3: Josh Allen down to seven to one off the loss,

1309
01:06:51,000 --> 01:06:54,040
Speaker 3: Sam Darnald ten to one. Sam Darnald, that's where we're

1310
01:06:54,080 --> 01:06:56,600
Speaker 3: at now, and then everyone else twenty two to one

1311
01:06:56,680 --> 01:07:00,040
Speaker 3: or longer, including Jalen Hurts twenty two to one on

1312
01:07:00,560 --> 01:07:03,360
Speaker 3: Join Love twenty five to one. That's our matchup tomorrow,

1313
01:07:03,360 --> 01:07:05,520
Speaker 3: which we're gonna get to in a second. But that's

1314
01:07:05,560 --> 01:07:07,640
Speaker 3: interesting too. Maybe you pick the winner of that game.

1315
01:07:07,840 --> 01:07:09,720
Speaker 3: Maybe one of those guys gets to themselves into the

1316
01:07:09,760 --> 01:07:14,200
Speaker 3: race of the big Game tomorrow. But may Stafford Mahomes,

1317
01:07:14,560 --> 01:07:18,439
Speaker 3: Jonathan Taylor, Josh Allen, Sam Darnold. Those are his six

1318
01:07:18,880 --> 01:07:21,360
Speaker 3: most likely MVPs halfway through the season.

1319
01:07:21,400 --> 01:07:21,919
Speaker 1: What do you think?

1320
01:07:23,760 --> 01:07:26,720
Speaker 2: I think the MVP conversation has never been more interesting.

1321
01:07:27,000 --> 01:07:28,600
Speaker 2: I think I'm gonna try to pitch this week that

1322
01:07:28,640 --> 01:07:31,400
Speaker 2: we do like an MVP draft, because I think strictly

1323
01:07:31,560 --> 01:07:34,560
Speaker 2: entering this week, it has never been more interesting. So

1324
01:07:34,640 --> 01:07:38,640
Speaker 2: I think off the bat, even the simplest way to

1325
01:07:38,760 --> 01:07:41,240
Speaker 2: kind of discuss the MVP, if you just look at passing,

1326
01:07:41,280 --> 01:07:44,400
Speaker 2: touchdowns and interceptions and then kind of start your conversation

1327
01:07:44,520 --> 01:07:47,600
Speaker 2: that way. It gives you Stafford, who's twenty five and

1328
01:07:47,680 --> 01:07:50,320
Speaker 2: two when I say twenty five and two. I'm talking

1329
01:07:50,320 --> 01:07:53,400
Speaker 2: about touchdowns interceptions very easily. Twenty five and two. He's

1330
01:07:53,440 --> 01:07:55,440
Speaker 2: three to one at the top basically. Then you have

1331
01:07:55,640 --> 01:07:58,160
Speaker 2: Drake May nineteen and five, three to one at the top.

1332
01:07:58,280 --> 01:08:01,480
Speaker 2: The other guy sitting there Jared Goff, who has twenty

1333
01:08:01,520 --> 01:08:04,560
Speaker 2: and three. He's thirty to one at some of these books,

1334
01:08:04,640 --> 01:08:07,960
Speaker 2: which is kind of intriguing because if those numbers got

1335
01:08:08,200 --> 01:08:11,080
Speaker 2: crazy and the Lions won some games, thirty to one

1336
01:08:11,120 --> 01:08:13,960
Speaker 2: seems intriguing. Now let me just keep going for a second.

1337
01:08:13,960 --> 01:08:17,320
Speaker 2: You have the best player, Jonathan Taylor, makes sense, he's there.

1338
01:08:17,600 --> 01:08:20,000
Speaker 2: Then I think you have something called the legacies, which

1339
01:08:20,040 --> 01:08:24,440
Speaker 2: would be Mahomes and Josh, which basically about five interceptions,

1340
01:08:24,680 --> 01:08:28,439
Speaker 2: about sixteen passing touchdowns. Then you have one guy I

1341
01:08:28,479 --> 01:08:31,840
Speaker 2: haven't mentioned, the up and comer, Lamar Jackson's about thirty

1342
01:08:31,880 --> 01:08:35,559
Speaker 2: to one, and he has fifteen touchdowns and one pick.

1343
01:08:36,000 --> 01:08:37,919
Speaker 2: If the Ravens all of a sudden win the division,

1344
01:08:38,240 --> 01:08:41,120
Speaker 2: they win four or five more games, he's got twenty

1345
01:08:41,120 --> 01:08:43,720
Speaker 2: three touchdowns and one pick. He has twenty four to

1346
01:08:43,800 --> 01:08:47,479
Speaker 2: twenty five. I just think it's an interesting conversation. I

1347
01:08:47,479 --> 01:08:51,799
Speaker 2: think the other one is Sam Donoald, like if Seattle

1348
01:08:51,920 --> 01:08:55,080
Speaker 2: keeps winning these games and his numbers can continue to

1349
01:08:55,080 --> 01:08:57,360
Speaker 2: look that way, Like if he beats the Rams and

1350
01:08:57,400 --> 01:09:00,240
Speaker 2: throws three touchdowns, like he has the games in the

1351
01:09:00,280 --> 01:09:03,360
Speaker 2: opportunity to definitely move up the board. Right now, I

1352
01:09:03,400 --> 01:09:08,519
Speaker 2: believe it's seventeen touchdowns, six interceptions. I mean, probably has

1353
01:09:08,560 --> 01:09:10,679
Speaker 2: to go a few weeks without a pick, probably keep

1354
01:09:10,680 --> 01:09:14,479
Speaker 2: that number near six. But to me, like he's the

1355
01:09:14,479 --> 01:09:17,479
Speaker 2: guy that's not getting any talk, and Seattle could be

1356
01:09:17,520 --> 01:09:20,160
Speaker 2: eight and two by the time this weekend after beating

1357
01:09:20,200 --> 01:09:23,160
Speaker 2: the Rams. Just it's a heck of an opportunity that's

1358
01:09:23,240 --> 01:09:24,840
Speaker 2: kind of on the table for him. And then you

1359
01:09:24,920 --> 01:09:28,080
Speaker 2: mentioned it, the winner of Monday Night Football tomorrow night

1360
01:09:28,200 --> 01:09:30,599
Speaker 2: is going to get a bump, Like unless the game

1361
01:09:30,640 --> 01:09:33,760
Speaker 2: is absolutely terrible, whoever wins that game is going to

1362
01:09:33,760 --> 01:09:36,200
Speaker 2: get some amount of hype. And the two people I'm

1363
01:09:36,240 --> 01:09:39,719
Speaker 2: leaving out right now just not worth conversation in my opinion.

1364
01:09:40,200 --> 01:09:43,479
Speaker 2: Baker Mayfield, he has sixteen touchdowns and two picks. But

1365
01:09:44,160 --> 01:09:46,839
Speaker 2: to me, you're just not winning the games and producing

1366
01:09:46,880 --> 01:09:48,639
Speaker 2: over the last three or four weeks. I think you're out.

1367
01:09:48,680 --> 01:09:51,640
Speaker 2: And Justin Herbert like probably should be a part of

1368
01:09:51,680 --> 01:09:55,559
Speaker 2: some conversation. But eight interceptions and your offense just isn't

1369
01:09:55,560 --> 01:09:58,840
Speaker 2: doing enough for you based on you. So that's my

1370
01:09:59,000 --> 01:10:02,160
Speaker 2: MVP discussion. But I I think it's fascinating right now.

1371
01:10:02,640 --> 01:10:04,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't think you want to invest in Herbert

1372
01:10:04,439 --> 01:10:06,080
Speaker 3: with all the offensive line injuries.

1373
01:10:06,120 --> 01:10:07,160
Speaker 1: And I think the moment.

1374
01:10:06,880 --> 01:10:09,599
Speaker 3: Has passed with Baker, like he was the top three

1375
01:10:09,600 --> 01:10:11,400
Speaker 3: in the odds earlier in the season, he had the

1376
01:10:11,400 --> 01:10:13,479
Speaker 3: big moments, the big wins to end the game. But

1377
01:10:14,160 --> 01:10:16,920
Speaker 3: like I thought, then we move on quickly, we have

1378
01:10:17,000 --> 01:10:19,719
Speaker 3: the the you know things, things change in a hurry,

1379
01:10:20,200 --> 01:10:23,640
Speaker 3: and like the Bucks losing that game today probably not

1380
01:10:23,680 --> 01:10:25,920
Speaker 3: that big of a deal big picture, but for for

1381
01:10:26,040 --> 01:10:29,639
Speaker 3: Baker Mayfield, to me, that took the Bucks to this

1382
01:10:29,760 --> 01:10:32,920
Speaker 3: game today from a potential, you know, the Bucks could

1383
01:10:32,920 --> 01:10:35,320
Speaker 3: be a one or two seed to okay, they're probably

1384
01:10:35,320 --> 01:10:38,759
Speaker 3: the three or four seed. And suddenly those games against

1385
01:10:38,800 --> 01:10:42,160
Speaker 3: the Falcons and Panthers, nobody really cares what Baker does

1386
01:10:42,160 --> 01:10:44,960
Speaker 3: against those guys, like those are not marquee games. We

1387
01:10:45,080 --> 01:10:48,040
Speaker 3: keep talking about the game of the year, of the week. Well,

1388
01:10:48,080 --> 01:10:50,400
Speaker 3: it's never the Bucks in these games. It's always these

1389
01:10:50,439 --> 01:10:53,400
Speaker 3: other teams getting head to heads. It's like, it's good

1390
01:10:53,880 --> 01:10:57,200
Speaker 3: to face these these kind of bad teams. And I think, frankly,

1391
01:10:57,240 --> 01:11:00,040
Speaker 3: this is maybe a Drake May problem as well. He

1392
01:11:00,080 --> 01:11:02,360
Speaker 3: saw Drake May in one primetime game and he was

1393
01:11:02,400 --> 01:11:05,439
Speaker 3: great against Buffalo. Well, doesn't get many chances of that,

1394
01:11:05,640 --> 01:11:09,120
Speaker 3: so that maybe if you have a bad game, then

1395
01:11:09,120 --> 01:11:11,920
Speaker 3: maybe that helps you out. But we're gonna get primetime

1396
01:11:12,000 --> 01:11:14,760
Speaker 3: Drake May in our next game here on Thursday night

1397
01:11:14,800 --> 01:11:17,120
Speaker 3: against the Jets. I don't know if that really counts,

1398
01:11:17,479 --> 01:11:20,360
Speaker 3: but it gets to the point. Now we saw this

1399
01:11:20,439 --> 01:11:22,800
Speaker 3: with like Brock Purty a few years ago, rip to

1400
01:11:22,880 --> 01:11:24,760
Speaker 3: my ticket that I'm still holding on to you from.

1401
01:11:24,840 --> 01:11:29,000
Speaker 3: Then you become the favorite. Now you can only hurt

1402
01:11:29,040 --> 01:11:32,439
Speaker 3: your MVP stock. After that, That's where Drake May is at.

1403
01:11:32,680 --> 01:11:35,120
Speaker 3: You can only do bad things on a Thursday night

1404
01:11:35,160 --> 01:11:38,160
Speaker 3: against the Jets to your MVP stock. And I think

1405
01:11:38,200 --> 01:11:42,160
Speaker 3: that's now that's a Drake May thing. Certainly that Sam Darnold,

1406
01:11:42,160 --> 01:11:44,840
Speaker 3: because the perception of Sam is always going to be

1407
01:11:45,040 --> 01:11:47,040
Speaker 3: that he's going to do something bad and ruin it.

1408
01:11:47,320 --> 01:11:49,400
Speaker 3: So I think that's why his odds are what they are.

1409
01:11:49,960 --> 01:11:53,599
Speaker 3: To me, Stafford's the guy that's a little bit a

1410
01:11:53,760 --> 01:11:56,760
Speaker 3: bad proof in that way, like people love to kind

1411
01:11:56,800 --> 01:11:59,519
Speaker 3: of write off the bad thing Stafford does. Oh what

1412
01:11:59,600 --> 01:12:03,400
Speaker 3: a cool throw. It was the amazing throw. And maybe

1413
01:12:03,400 --> 01:12:05,320
Speaker 3: we do that because the dude won in a Super

1414
01:12:05,320 --> 01:12:08,400
Speaker 3: Bowl already. And so I feel like, of all these

1415
01:12:08,479 --> 01:12:11,800
Speaker 3: players here, you mentioned the old Guard, Mahomes and Allen Well,

1416
01:12:11,840 --> 01:12:15,320
Speaker 3: they got their MVPs. Hertz has super Bowl MVP. Jackson

1417
01:12:15,360 --> 01:12:19,360
Speaker 3: Lamar's got his MVPs. Drake May He'll have a chance later,

1418
01:12:19,840 --> 01:12:22,479
Speaker 3: Sam Darnold, I mean, come on, is he really an MVP.

1419
01:12:23,080 --> 01:12:26,640
Speaker 3: Matt Stafford is on the verge of retirement, carrying the

1420
01:12:26,680 --> 01:12:28,679
Speaker 3: team on his back in the back he's not supposed

1421
01:12:28,720 --> 01:12:31,559
Speaker 3: to be using because he's gonna retire soon, and he's

1422
01:12:31,640 --> 01:12:35,280
Speaker 3: like heading into retirement soon. He's probably I think going

1423
01:12:35,360 --> 01:12:37,880
Speaker 3: to hit like top five in passing yards all time

1424
01:12:38,000 --> 01:12:40,680
Speaker 3: or he's somewhere real high on the list from all

1425
01:12:40,680 --> 01:12:43,920
Speaker 3: the throws he's made. And he's a guy that could

1426
01:12:44,000 --> 01:12:46,519
Speaker 3: kind of get the career Award bump. Also, like he's

1427
01:12:46,520 --> 01:12:49,720
Speaker 3: a guy that I think voters would fall over themselves

1428
01:12:49,720 --> 01:12:52,000
Speaker 3: to reward if he's in the picture. And what seems

1429
01:12:52,000 --> 01:12:55,240
Speaker 3: like a pretty open race, So he's really intriguing to me,

1430
01:12:55,280 --> 01:12:57,960
Speaker 3: and I will admit I have a fifty to one

1431
01:12:58,000 --> 01:13:01,200
Speaker 3: staffer ticket from the off season, so I'm especially intrigued

1432
01:13:01,200 --> 01:13:02,040
Speaker 3: on that as well.

1433
01:13:02,080 --> 01:13:02,679
Speaker 1: Three to one.

1434
01:13:02,960 --> 01:13:05,720
Speaker 3: He may have lost the window for now, but that

1435
01:13:06,080 --> 01:13:09,559
Speaker 3: rams Seahawks game next week is another one of those

1436
01:13:09,680 --> 01:13:13,320
Speaker 3: pushing the MVP forward. Stafford or Darnold. Who's gonna get

1437
01:13:13,320 --> 01:13:15,600
Speaker 3: the big boost? A're gonna keep getting like one or

1438
01:13:15,640 --> 01:13:18,599
Speaker 3: two of those games each week. Look, Bill's bucks next week,

1439
01:13:18,840 --> 01:13:21,160
Speaker 3: So either Josh or Baker's gonna get a little push

1440
01:13:21,200 --> 01:13:23,800
Speaker 3: after that, and either Josh or Baker's gonna get a

1441
01:13:23,800 --> 01:13:26,640
Speaker 3: little bit buried after that. So we're gonna keep doing that.

1442
01:13:27,439 --> 01:13:30,439
Speaker 3: And uh, I guess my question back to you before

1443
01:13:30,439 --> 01:13:33,240
Speaker 3: I wrap this up. On the MVP talk, we don't

1444
01:13:33,240 --> 01:13:35,720
Speaker 3: really say a lot about the guy who's not the

1445
01:13:35,760 --> 01:13:38,960
Speaker 3: guy and all that, Jonathan Taylor, who suddenly is right

1446
01:13:39,000 --> 01:13:41,280
Speaker 3: there in the middle of all this mix. I kind

1447
01:13:41,280 --> 01:13:43,160
Speaker 3: of made my case against Taylor earlier.

1448
01:13:43,520 --> 01:13:44,479
Speaker 1: What do you think about.

1449
01:13:44,320 --> 01:13:47,920
Speaker 3: Jonathan Taylor And if all these quarterbacks keep losing, what

1450
01:13:47,960 --> 01:13:50,640
Speaker 3: if the Colts just keep winning and Taylor could he

1451
01:13:50,760 --> 01:13:52,679
Speaker 3: actually be the MVP in here?

1452
01:13:53,600 --> 01:13:55,559
Speaker 2: You just he could be. I think you just missed

1453
01:13:55,560 --> 01:13:58,559
Speaker 2: the window. The crazy thing was, I looked at last

1454
01:13:58,640 --> 01:14:01,800
Speaker 2: year's odds in terms of MVP, and obviously it just

1455
01:14:01,840 --> 01:14:05,080
Speaker 2: depends on when you have your performance, obviously for when

1456
01:14:05,160 --> 01:14:07,920
Speaker 2: you see the jump. But entering Week eleven last year,

1457
01:14:08,040 --> 01:14:11,040
Speaker 2: Saquon was still one hundred and fifty to one. Jonathan

1458
01:14:11,080 --> 01:14:14,200
Speaker 2: Taylor is five to one. I mean that is I

1459
01:14:14,200 --> 01:14:17,320
Speaker 2: mean he has peaked already, He has hit his fifteen. Like,

1460
01:14:17,600 --> 01:14:19,559
Speaker 2: the stats right now are stupid, so he is going

1461
01:14:19,640 --> 01:14:22,040
Speaker 2: to have to keep this up on a longer pace

1462
01:14:22,080 --> 01:14:25,760
Speaker 2: at a shorter lot, shorter number. So I just do

1463
01:14:25,880 --> 01:14:27,960
Speaker 2: I think he can win it. I do, But I

1464
01:14:28,040 --> 01:14:31,280
Speaker 2: also think there's so many games left and so many

1465
01:14:31,320 --> 01:14:34,760
Speaker 2: good games left. They think we're just gonna keep passing

1466
01:14:34,840 --> 01:14:38,320
Speaker 2: Taylor by the next quarterback, and he's going to continue

1467
01:14:38,360 --> 01:14:41,840
Speaker 2: to sit in that second and third slot unless the

1468
01:14:41,920 --> 01:14:45,760
Speaker 2: inevitable like happens where people just keep beating each other,

1469
01:14:45,840 --> 01:14:47,920
Speaker 2: Like somebody has to put a bit of a streak

1470
01:14:47,960 --> 01:14:50,559
Speaker 2: together here, And I don't think it necessarily has to

1471
01:14:50,600 --> 01:14:53,360
Speaker 2: be Drake may I think it can be almost anybody

1472
01:14:53,400 --> 01:14:56,320
Speaker 2: in that top five to string two to three games together,

1473
01:14:56,720 --> 01:15:01,479
Speaker 2: say Week fourteen and fifteen or thirteen, fourteen, fifteen, and

1474
01:15:01,760 --> 01:15:05,160
Speaker 2: I think it could keep Taylor down. But I'll say this,

1475
01:15:05,240 --> 01:15:08,599
Speaker 2: so Stafford's twenty five touchdowns and two picks through nine games.

1476
01:15:08,880 --> 01:15:11,400
Speaker 2: Only other person to do that Mahomes in twenty twenty,

1477
01:15:11,960 --> 01:15:15,639
Speaker 2: So he is on some crazy pace at the moment.

1478
01:15:15,680 --> 01:15:17,240
Speaker 2: All right, you ready to keep going to scores?

1479
01:15:17,800 --> 01:15:18,000
Speaker 1: Yeah.

1480
01:15:18,240 --> 01:15:20,639
Speaker 3: One other thought on Johnson Taylor. I think you should

1481
01:15:20,640 --> 01:15:23,720
Speaker 3: bet Jonathan Taylor for Offensive Player of the Year. He's

1482
01:15:23,760 --> 01:15:27,160
Speaker 3: only minus three point fifty right now. That thing is cooked,

1483
01:15:27,200 --> 01:15:29,960
Speaker 3: that is done and dusted, unless he gets injured and

1484
01:15:29,960 --> 01:15:33,080
Speaker 3: misses like a month of time, like send a thank

1485
01:15:33,120 --> 01:15:35,200
Speaker 3: you note to Jackson Smith and Jig but the only

1486
01:15:35,280 --> 01:15:37,680
Speaker 3: other guy that's even shorter than twenty to one right now.

1487
01:15:37,680 --> 01:15:40,640
Speaker 3: And look, Jason has been awesome. Jason has not been

1488
01:15:40,720 --> 01:15:44,600
Speaker 3: Johnson Taylor. It's not even close. And we know that

1489
01:15:44,680 --> 01:15:46,680
Speaker 3: we're gonna do the thing where maybe this is the

1490
01:15:46,760 --> 01:15:48,880
Speaker 3: year running back wins MVP, and then it's not.

1491
01:15:49,000 --> 01:15:51,719
Speaker 1: It's never is. It's not going to be. But even

1492
01:15:51,760 --> 01:15:52,840
Speaker 1: if it wasn't.

1493
01:15:53,120 --> 01:15:56,719
Speaker 3: That's who we give opoy too. So minus three fifty

1494
01:15:56,800 --> 01:15:59,960
Speaker 3: seems crazy to me. You're basically the only way he

1495
01:16:00,160 --> 01:16:02,559
Speaker 3: loses that at this point, given the numbers he's putting up,

1496
01:16:02,720 --> 01:16:06,120
Speaker 3: is a significant injury. I don't know how you price

1497
01:16:06,160 --> 01:16:08,280
Speaker 3: an injury risk. Running backs are out as a risk.

1498
01:16:08,400 --> 01:16:11,400
Speaker 3: But if you told me put it this way, if

1499
01:16:11,439 --> 01:16:14,280
Speaker 3: you told me Taylor misses one game and that's it

1500
01:16:14,360 --> 01:16:17,240
Speaker 3: the rest of the season, off the top of my head,

1501
01:16:17,360 --> 01:16:19,639
Speaker 3: like I'm making him at least minus one thousand. So

1502
01:16:19,960 --> 01:16:22,719
Speaker 3: we talked about like the favorites to make the playoffs

1503
01:16:22,760 --> 01:16:23,920
Speaker 3: and all those short odds.

1504
01:16:24,360 --> 01:16:26,000
Speaker 1: If your short odds better.

1505
01:16:26,120 --> 01:16:30,240
Speaker 3: Minus three fifty, or look, maybe you bet minus three

1506
01:16:30,320 --> 01:16:33,200
Speaker 3: fifty on whatever you're going to win, and then put

1507
01:16:33,240 --> 01:16:36,160
Speaker 3: the whatever you're gonna win as you're Jonathan Taylor MVP bet,

1508
01:16:36,160 --> 01:16:39,080
Speaker 3: You're like funding your MVP bet with your OPOY bet,

1509
01:16:39,439 --> 01:16:41,280
Speaker 3: and you at least aren't losing that way.

1510
01:16:41,720 --> 01:16:42,000
Speaker 2: I don't.

1511
01:16:42,120 --> 01:16:44,080
Speaker 3: I'm not telling you to bet an MVP. I'm never

1512
01:16:44,120 --> 01:16:47,040
Speaker 3: gonna tell you to better running back for MVP. I'm

1513
01:16:47,040 --> 01:16:49,160
Speaker 3: gonna tell you better for OPOY. I think minus three

1514
01:16:49,160 --> 01:16:51,040
Speaker 3: to fifty is insanely short for what it should be.

1515
01:16:52,000 --> 01:16:54,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, use your stake for something good. I honestly, might

1516
01:16:55,240 --> 01:16:56,960
Speaker 2: you know there might be some other places to take

1517
01:16:57,000 --> 01:17:00,360
Speaker 2: a look at that In terms of opiois if there's

1518
01:17:00,400 --> 01:17:03,200
Speaker 2: some better odds. But I like what you're thinking there.

1519
01:17:03,280 --> 01:17:06,639
Speaker 2: All right, let's keep going here. Jets win twenty seven

1520
01:17:06,640 --> 01:17:08,680
Speaker 2: to twenty is two point dogs on clothes over the

1521
01:17:08,720 --> 01:17:11,919
Speaker 2: Browns total over thirty seven and a half. Garrett Wilson

1522
01:17:12,360 --> 01:17:16,200
Speaker 2: knee injury. Something to look forward for the Jets. I

1523
01:17:16,240 --> 01:17:18,400
Speaker 2: think the line here was something to talk about. Jets

1524
01:17:18,400 --> 01:17:20,959
Speaker 2: were minus two and a half, then the trade deadline happens,

1525
01:17:21,400 --> 01:17:23,040
Speaker 2: then Cleveland goes to two and a half, and the

1526
01:17:23,120 --> 01:17:26,720
Speaker 2: Jets end up winning anyway, Holy mackerel, justin field. Those

1527
01:17:26,760 --> 01:17:30,479
Speaker 2: for forty fifty four yards with six completions and the

1528
01:17:30,560 --> 01:17:34,680
Speaker 2: Jets end up winning this game. Just absolutely ridiculous. This

1529
01:17:34,760 --> 01:17:37,479
Speaker 2: is from ESPN Since nineteen fifty, teams two hundred and

1530
01:17:37,479 --> 01:17:40,400
Speaker 2: twenty five and zero when holding opponents one hundred and

1531
01:17:40,400 --> 01:17:43,840
Speaker 2: seventy five yards or less and committing zero turnovers. The

1532
01:17:43,880 --> 01:17:48,519
Speaker 2: Browns lost this game to the Jets, breaking that number,

1533
01:17:48,600 --> 01:17:53,400
Speaker 2: all right, Saints Panthers. Saints win the game, beating the

1534
01:17:53,439 --> 01:17:56,320
Speaker 2: Panthers seventeen to seven. Cover is five and a half point. Dogs.

1535
01:17:56,320 --> 01:18:00,000
Speaker 2: Total goes under thirty seven and a half. Carolina Panthers

1536
01:18:00,439 --> 01:18:04,519
Speaker 2: lose their eleventh consecutive game as the betting favorite, the

1537
01:18:04,600 --> 01:18:10,000
Speaker 2: longest streak since the merger. September of twenty twenty one

1538
01:18:10,240 --> 01:18:13,360
Speaker 2: was the last time they won and covered are one

1539
01:18:13,439 --> 01:18:17,160
Speaker 2: as a favorite. Carolina's pass defense just really let them

1540
01:18:17,200 --> 01:18:20,519
Speaker 2: down here, man like allowed eight point nine yards per attempt,

1541
01:18:20,920 --> 01:18:24,120
Speaker 2: three twenty plus yard catches downfield, all were New Orleans

1542
01:18:24,120 --> 01:18:25,880
Speaker 2: who went zero for two in the red zone. Like

1543
01:18:25,880 --> 01:18:28,640
Speaker 2: New Orleans didn't even convert anything, and they didn't need

1544
01:18:28,680 --> 01:18:31,280
Speaker 2: to because Carolina put up seven points. The one thing

1545
01:18:31,280 --> 01:18:35,120
Speaker 2: that's interesting in New Orleans second easiest remaining strength to schedule,

1546
01:18:35,200 --> 01:18:37,080
Speaker 2: Like we're not talking about the playoffs. I think we're

1547
01:18:37,120 --> 01:18:39,639
Speaker 2: more just talking about, like if you get some plus numbers,

1548
01:18:39,640 --> 01:18:42,600
Speaker 2: it could be intriguing. But Tennessee Carolina, the Jets in

1549
01:18:42,680 --> 01:18:45,960
Speaker 2: Miami still in their schedule. Some playoff teams would die

1550
01:18:46,000 --> 01:18:49,320
Speaker 2: for that. The Saints are one to nine against the

1551
01:18:49,360 --> 01:18:52,400
Speaker 2: first quarter spread this year. We're smarking the NFL being

1552
01:18:52,400 --> 01:18:56,959
Speaker 2: outscored eighty two nineteen, So we will see if that continues.

1553
01:18:57,000 --> 01:19:01,040
Speaker 2: But that is absolutely horrible, all right. Detroit wins forty

1554
01:19:01,160 --> 01:19:04,280
Speaker 2: four to twenty two, cover eight and a half minus

1555
01:19:04,320 --> 01:19:06,719
Speaker 2: on the road. Total goes over forty four and a half.

1556
01:19:07,040 --> 01:19:09,240
Speaker 2: Two injuries in this game, Terry on Arnold with a

1557
01:19:09,280 --> 01:19:13,479
Speaker 2: concussion and Chris Rodriguez left and I believe maybe came

1558
01:19:13,520 --> 01:19:16,160
Speaker 2: back with a shoulder, but something to look for there.

1559
01:19:17,000 --> 01:19:19,599
Speaker 2: The streak that just continues with Detroit, which is stupid,

1560
01:19:19,720 --> 01:19:24,679
Speaker 2: is Campbell and Goff now one and covered thirteen straight

1561
01:19:24,800 --> 01:19:28,280
Speaker 2: off of a loss, so basically Detroit doesn't lose back

1562
01:19:28,320 --> 01:19:30,759
Speaker 2: to back games, haven't done it since November of twenty

1563
01:19:30,800 --> 01:19:33,880
Speaker 2: twenty two. In that spot, that streak of thirteen straight

1564
01:19:33,960 --> 01:19:36,840
Speaker 2: longest for any team in the last thirty years off

1565
01:19:36,880 --> 01:19:40,639
Speaker 2: of a loss. And then for the Commanders, boy, if

1566
01:19:40,680 --> 01:19:42,599
Speaker 2: you looked at them at the end of the NFC

1567
01:19:42,680 --> 01:19:45,320
Speaker 2: Championship game last year and said they're a good fade candidate,

1568
01:19:45,360 --> 01:19:48,960
Speaker 2: you did well. They've lost four straight by at least

1569
01:19:49,000 --> 01:19:51,719
Speaker 2: twenty one points, first team to do that in twenty

1570
01:19:52,040 --> 01:19:55,280
Speaker 2: three years. Everything just seems to be falling apart for

1571
01:19:55,479 --> 01:19:59,800
Speaker 2: Washington at this point. And then lastly, Seattle wins forty

1572
01:19:59,840 --> 01:20:02,800
Speaker 2: five four twenty two as well, cover minus seven and

1573
01:20:02,800 --> 01:20:04,600
Speaker 2: a half at home. Total goes over forty four and

1574
01:20:04,600 --> 01:20:08,600
Speaker 2: a half. October twenty second of twenty twenty three is

1575
01:20:08,680 --> 01:20:12,000
Speaker 2: the last time before today Seattle had won and covered

1576
01:20:12,120 --> 01:20:15,599
Speaker 2: consecutive home games. It had been a long time. Believe.

1577
01:20:15,640 --> 01:20:18,080
Speaker 2: They were five and twelve against a spread at home.

1578
01:20:18,439 --> 01:20:22,439
Speaker 2: They exercised some demons because they dominated this one. Sam Donald,

1579
01:20:22,479 --> 01:20:24,280
Speaker 2: as we have talked about the MVP, but in the

1580
01:20:24,320 --> 01:20:28,400
Speaker 2: first half this year, twelve touchdowns, two picks, seventy five

1581
01:20:28,479 --> 01:20:32,760
Speaker 2: percent completion percentage, eleven point one yards per attempt downfield,

1582
01:20:33,360 --> 01:20:37,120
Speaker 2: just two sacks, and twenty two twenty post yard completion

1583
01:20:37,240 --> 01:20:39,439
Speaker 2: side for most of the NFL. So he is really

1584
01:20:39,600 --> 01:20:43,560
Speaker 2: allowing Seattle to get into games easily, not making mistakes,

1585
01:20:43,680 --> 01:20:47,479
Speaker 2: not taking sacks, just really making it easy on them.

1586
01:20:47,479 --> 01:21:02,800
Speaker 2: So that is today's slate. Let's go into Monday night football. Oh,

1587
01:21:02,840 --> 01:21:04,880
Speaker 2: this is going to be awesome. I cannot wait. So

1588
01:21:05,080 --> 01:21:08,880
Speaker 2: Packers and Eagles. Packers. Last time I looked, and you

1589
01:21:08,920 --> 01:21:10,599
Speaker 2: can correct me. What is it two and a half

1590
01:21:10,640 --> 01:21:12,680
Speaker 2: And what's the total you're looking at it yourself right now?

1591
01:21:13,080 --> 01:21:16,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, two and a half and the total is at

1592
01:21:16,439 --> 01:21:18,120
Speaker 3: forty five in most books.

1593
01:21:18,880 --> 01:21:21,880
Speaker 2: All right, Well, I mean to me, every Green Bay

1594
01:21:21,920 --> 01:21:24,280
Speaker 2: game is massive. I mean they have the fifth toughest

1595
01:21:24,280 --> 01:21:28,800
Speaker 2: strength of schedule going forward. I mean, their easiest game

1596
01:21:28,920 --> 01:21:33,040
Speaker 2: is a Giants game. But they've got Philly, Denver, Detroit, Chicago, Minnesota,

1597
01:21:33,080 --> 01:21:35,920
Speaker 2: and Baltimore. So you know, based off the fact they

1598
01:21:35,920 --> 01:21:39,599
Speaker 2: haven't looked their best lately. Fine, but they also really

1599
01:21:39,640 --> 01:21:43,720
Speaker 2: have a tough schedule. So to me, this one probably

1600
01:21:44,280 --> 01:21:47,360
Speaker 2: more on green Bay to show us who they are

1601
01:21:47,760 --> 01:21:51,000
Speaker 2: versus Philly. I mean, Philly never shows us something good,

1602
01:21:51,240 --> 01:21:54,080
Speaker 2: so why would they start now like it? Just you

1603
01:21:54,160 --> 01:21:56,720
Speaker 2: know what I mean? Like to me, an egg from

1604
01:21:56,760 --> 01:22:00,000
Speaker 2: green Bay would go much further than an egg from

1605
01:22:00,439 --> 01:22:02,760
Speaker 2: I think an egg from Philly people would show excuses,

1606
01:22:03,080 --> 01:22:04,920
Speaker 2: they would show up another day. I think an egg

1607
01:22:04,920 --> 01:22:06,840
Speaker 2: from green Bay, we would really start to dissect that.

1608
01:22:08,040 --> 01:22:09,639
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I think too if you look kind

1609
01:22:09,640 --> 01:22:12,439
Speaker 3: of big pictures, the Packers have losses to the Browns

1610
01:22:12,439 --> 01:22:14,920
Speaker 3: and Panthers, Well, look at what the Browns and Panthers

1611
01:22:14,920 --> 01:22:18,400
Speaker 3: did today Like that that should not make us feel

1612
01:22:18,439 --> 01:22:21,679
Speaker 3: great about what they did today, about what the Packers

1613
01:22:21,680 --> 01:22:25,000
Speaker 3: are for the season. I think that the Eagles, it's

1614
01:22:25,080 --> 01:22:28,439
Speaker 3: not necessarily that the goose egg or whatever would would

1615
01:22:28,479 --> 01:22:30,880
Speaker 3: betray them. I think it's just a lot to learn

1616
01:22:30,880 --> 01:22:33,000
Speaker 3: about the Eagles. They're coming out of the bye week here,

1617
01:22:33,439 --> 01:22:35,639
Speaker 3: and if we're being fair, and I should be fair,

1618
01:22:35,680 --> 01:22:38,559
Speaker 3: I've picked on the Eagles a lot this season. That offense,

1619
01:22:38,680 --> 01:22:40,960
Speaker 3: Kevin Pottola the play call, they started to find a

1620
01:22:40,960 --> 01:22:43,920
Speaker 3: few answers, They started to do some under center play action,

1621
01:22:44,439 --> 01:22:47,479
Speaker 3: They started to mix things up in ways that they

1622
01:22:47,520 --> 01:22:50,760
Speaker 3: hadn't early in the season. And now you have a

1623
01:22:50,760 --> 01:22:54,200
Speaker 3: whole extra week to kind of self scout a little bit.

1624
01:22:55,280 --> 01:22:58,559
Speaker 3: The Packers are very vulnerable middle of the field. That's

1625
01:22:58,600 --> 01:23:00,880
Speaker 3: never been a Jalen Hurts thing. But the Eagles are

1626
01:23:00,920 --> 01:23:02,840
Speaker 3: actually number one EPA per play on the middle of

1627
01:23:02,880 --> 01:23:06,519
Speaker 3: the field. They're just second least attacking there. But under

1628
01:23:06,520 --> 01:23:08,439
Speaker 3: center play action it's not really been a Jalen Hurts

1629
01:23:08,439 --> 01:23:12,040
Speaker 3: thing either. Maybe they'll find something there. I do think

1630
01:23:12,360 --> 01:23:15,280
Speaker 3: in this particular matchup, I feel like it's gonna be

1631
01:23:15,320 --> 01:23:18,400
Speaker 3: a lower scoring game. I would lean under, especially first half.

1632
01:23:18,640 --> 01:23:20,880
Speaker 3: I think Packers first half under the seven to one

1633
01:23:20,920 --> 01:23:24,320
Speaker 3: to the season. So the Packers allow the fewest explosives

1634
01:23:24,320 --> 01:23:26,439
Speaker 3: in the league and they're one of the best defending

1635
01:23:26,479 --> 01:23:29,200
Speaker 3: the deep passes in the league. The Eagles don't pass

1636
01:23:29,240 --> 01:23:32,200
Speaker 3: a lot, we know, but they are top. They're they're

1637
01:23:32,200 --> 01:23:35,639
Speaker 3: they're the number one most deep passes per pass play

1638
01:23:36,040 --> 01:23:39,160
Speaker 3: and their top three EPA per play, So they don't

1639
01:23:39,200 --> 01:23:42,160
Speaker 3: often pass, but when they do, they take big shots

1640
01:23:42,200 --> 01:23:45,080
Speaker 3: down the field. And if Green Bay can get some

1641
01:23:45,120 --> 01:23:47,880
Speaker 3: pressure with Micah Parsons and everyone, if they can take

1642
01:23:47,920 --> 01:23:51,040
Speaker 3: away those big plays, I think we kind of get,

1643
01:23:51,600 --> 01:23:53,599
Speaker 3: you know, as fun as big of a game as

1644
01:23:53,600 --> 01:23:56,800
Speaker 3: it is, maybe more of a sloggy sort of game

1645
01:23:56,880 --> 01:23:59,400
Speaker 3: with just both teams want to run the ball.

1646
01:23:59,439 --> 01:23:59,519
Speaker 2: Here.

1647
01:23:59,560 --> 01:24:01,160
Speaker 1: We're gonna ge a lot of Josh Jacobs.

1648
01:24:01,120 --> 01:24:04,519
Speaker 3: We're geting a lot of Saquon Barkley who unfortunately we're

1649
01:24:04,560 --> 01:24:06,519
Speaker 3: not going to get any Tucker Craft, who I think

1650
01:24:06,880 --> 01:24:09,559
Speaker 3: in this matchup is a pretty big deal. We talked

1651
01:24:09,600 --> 01:24:14,320
Speaker 3: about teams going heavy. Packers fifth most twelve personnel. They

1652
01:24:14,360 --> 01:24:17,839
Speaker 3: can't because Tucker Craft is gone. You get Luke Musgrave,

1653
01:24:17,840 --> 01:24:19,519
Speaker 3: who I know you're gonna talk about a second, but

1654
01:24:20,120 --> 01:24:23,160
Speaker 3: he's the guy helps them play versatile. He's the guy

1655
01:24:23,200 --> 01:24:25,439
Speaker 3: that helps set up their elite play action. Philly is

1656
01:24:25,520 --> 01:24:30,160
Speaker 3: vulnerable play action. He also can block a little bit.

1657
01:24:30,600 --> 01:24:34,400
Speaker 3: And the Eagles are not great pressuring, but the Packers

1658
01:24:34,479 --> 01:24:37,760
Speaker 3: are number one EPA for play when they.

1659
01:24:37,680 --> 01:24:40,479
Speaker 1: Do not get blitzed. So what's the pressure look like.

1660
01:24:40,560 --> 01:24:44,200
Speaker 3: Well, we don't really know because during the time off

1661
01:24:44,200 --> 01:24:47,479
Speaker 3: for the Eagles, they traded for Jalen Phillips, who's supposed

1662
01:24:47,479 --> 01:24:49,559
Speaker 3: to be the new pressure guy. They might now have

1663
01:24:49,640 --> 01:24:52,320
Speaker 3: Noan Smith back who's a big pressure guy. They trader

1664
01:24:52,320 --> 01:24:54,639
Speaker 3: for Jir Alexander, who's gonna be out and this game

1665
01:24:54,720 --> 01:24:57,000
Speaker 3: is the old team. But they got Michael Carter, so

1666
01:24:57,080 --> 01:25:01,639
Speaker 3: new two cornerbacks as well. So I think, just big picture,

1667
01:25:01,680 --> 01:25:05,080
Speaker 3: as exciting as this game is, it feels to me

1668
01:25:05,720 --> 01:25:08,920
Speaker 3: like a game that we mostly should be watching and

1669
01:25:09,000 --> 01:25:12,479
Speaker 3: learning from, Like not every game. Look, I'm the guy

1670
01:25:12,479 --> 01:25:14,920
Speaker 3: who puts in like forty bets every week into the

1671
01:25:14,960 --> 01:25:17,960
Speaker 3: action app for Sunday, right, I'm not sitting out a

1672
01:25:17,960 --> 01:25:19,880
Speaker 3: lot of games. I have a bet for you here

1673
01:25:19,880 --> 01:25:22,800
Speaker 3: in a second. But to me, this is not a

1674
01:25:22,840 --> 01:25:25,320
Speaker 3: game you should feel very confident about a side or

1675
01:25:25,400 --> 01:25:28,280
Speaker 3: a total. We're gonna learn a lot here, and I

1676
01:25:28,320 --> 01:25:31,320
Speaker 3: think you're right. Green Bay is more to lose. I

1677
01:25:31,320 --> 01:25:33,479
Speaker 3: think we have more to learn about Philly. I think

1678
01:25:33,479 --> 01:25:35,720
Speaker 3: there's a lot to learn about how the offense is

1679
01:25:35,760 --> 01:25:39,160
Speaker 3: slowly coming together and what does the defense look like now?

1680
01:25:39,200 --> 01:25:43,479
Speaker 3: Because by the numbers, they say Green Bay should run

1681
01:25:44,040 --> 01:25:47,240
Speaker 3: and Philadelphia will struggle to run. But I don't really

1682
01:25:47,320 --> 01:25:50,120
Speaker 3: know that we believe that that's what's gonna happen, and

1683
01:25:50,680 --> 01:25:54,160
Speaker 3: I we'll say too. Prepping for this game today is

1684
01:25:54,200 --> 01:25:57,120
Speaker 3: how you know you're a good sports analyst. I googled

1685
01:25:57,360 --> 01:26:00,519
Speaker 3: when does Toyota Thom start because guess what, I not

1686
01:26:00,680 --> 01:26:01,439
Speaker 3: for another week?

1687
01:26:01,680 --> 01:26:03,040
Speaker 1: So Jordan Love's not an MVP.

1688
01:26:03,160 --> 01:26:05,879
Speaker 3: Yeah, for one more week, unless maybe he's gonna kickstart

1689
01:26:06,080 --> 01:26:07,880
Speaker 3: to Toyota than What wouldn't it be great?

1690
01:26:07,880 --> 01:26:09,320
Speaker 1: I feels like Jordan Love.

1691
01:26:09,280 --> 01:26:11,559
Speaker 3: Huge Monday night game and then immediate when the game ends,

1692
01:26:11,720 --> 01:26:15,200
Speaker 3: there's Jordan Love like launching Toyota than As like you

1693
01:26:15,200 --> 01:26:18,240
Speaker 3: know the post Super Bowl Disney commercial and Jordan Love's like,

1694
01:26:18,280 --> 01:26:21,599
Speaker 3: I'm going to Toyota Thon Like it's not yet though,

1695
01:26:21,640 --> 01:26:24,479
Speaker 3: so maybe we're a week early. It's an exciting game.

1696
01:26:24,920 --> 01:26:27,680
Speaker 3: I just don't know what's gonna happen in it. So

1697
01:26:27,880 --> 01:26:29,920
Speaker 3: do you have a read on the game and do

1698
01:26:29,960 --> 01:26:30,920
Speaker 3: you a bet on the game?

1699
01:26:31,760 --> 01:26:34,200
Speaker 2: I think Toyota than is just waiting on Love to

1700
01:26:34,280 --> 01:26:36,200
Speaker 2: have a good game and then they're gonna bring it

1701
01:26:36,200 --> 01:26:37,760
Speaker 2: out the next day. That would be a smart thing

1702
01:26:37,800 --> 01:26:40,120
Speaker 2: to do. If you're gonna make me pick a side here,

1703
01:26:40,200 --> 01:26:42,559
Speaker 2: I'm probably gonna lean Philly. I'd like the points in

1704
01:26:42,600 --> 01:26:46,080
Speaker 2: any situation with the Eagles. They've played the underdog role

1705
01:26:46,320 --> 01:26:49,599
Speaker 2: well lately. But I also just think Tucker Craft loses

1706
01:26:49,600 --> 01:26:51,920
Speaker 2: a big part of green Bay's offense, like a part

1707
01:26:51,960 --> 01:26:54,479
Speaker 2: of the offense that they really rely on, and I

1708
01:26:54,520 --> 01:26:58,800
Speaker 2: think in any big game, I still don't know how

1709
01:26:58,880 --> 01:27:02,280
Speaker 2: much I super rely on Jordan Love. And they're my

1710
01:27:02,320 --> 01:27:05,760
Speaker 2: super Bowl pick from the preseason because I loved everything that.

1711
01:27:05,800 --> 01:27:08,240
Speaker 2: I thought they were the most balanced team and I

1712
01:27:08,240 --> 01:27:11,760
Speaker 2: thought they could really fight with Philly and I thought

1713
01:27:11,800 --> 01:27:13,360
Speaker 2: they would win the division. I think some of the

1714
01:27:13,400 --> 01:27:17,679
Speaker 2: injuries and again they got Micah Parsons after I said

1715
01:27:17,720 --> 01:27:19,360
Speaker 2: I wanted green Bay to win the super Bowl, Like

1716
01:27:19,400 --> 01:27:22,360
Speaker 2: everything just felt like it was kind of going in order.

1717
01:27:22,560 --> 01:27:24,840
Speaker 2: But I kind of like the points of Philly here.

1718
01:27:25,720 --> 01:27:28,439
Speaker 2: I think Green Bay is gonna take a tiny bit

1719
01:27:28,479 --> 01:27:31,200
Speaker 2: of time to try to figure out what Muskgrave is

1720
01:27:31,200 --> 01:27:33,519
Speaker 2: in the offense. Like some of the quotes are a

1721
01:27:33,520 --> 01:27:36,320
Speaker 2: little bit funny, but I think there's some motivation behind them,

1722
01:27:36,360 --> 01:27:39,680
Speaker 2: Like the quotes from Love were that Musgrave is a

1723
01:27:39,760 --> 01:27:43,879
Speaker 2: key offensive weapon. Stenovitch, who's the offensive coordinator, said Musgrave

1724
01:27:44,000 --> 01:27:47,320
Speaker 2: is a downfield threat. Like I just think they're trying

1725
01:27:47,400 --> 01:27:49,960
Speaker 2: to do anything they can to pump up. I mean

1726
01:27:50,000 --> 01:27:52,800
Speaker 2: they're you know, we're talking about Golden and Wics and

1727
01:27:52,920 --> 01:27:55,680
Speaker 2: read Like. There's so much in and out of what

1728
01:27:55,800 --> 01:27:57,720
Speaker 2: Green Bay is trying to get back and trying to

1729
01:27:57,720 --> 01:28:00,680
Speaker 2: figure out week to week that I think it's going

1730
01:28:00,760 --> 01:28:03,920
Speaker 2: to take some time. So in terms of the bets themselves,

1731
01:28:04,120 --> 01:28:06,880
Speaker 2: that's probably the way I would attack it. In terms

1732
01:28:06,920 --> 01:28:09,400
Speaker 2: of value, I tracked a few bets in this game.

1733
01:28:10,400 --> 01:28:14,000
Speaker 2: I took Hurts and Saquon to both score touchdowns. Like

1734
01:28:14,040 --> 01:28:17,160
Speaker 2: how many weeks do you get both guys at plus

1735
01:28:17,200 --> 01:28:19,640
Speaker 2: money to score touchdowns in this game where if one

1736
01:28:19,720 --> 01:28:22,840
Speaker 2: guy hits you end up making money, That's not a

1737
01:28:22,880 --> 01:28:25,880
Speaker 2: situation In a rush attack with Philly you get often.

1738
01:28:26,040 --> 01:28:29,080
Speaker 2: So those are bets I made. I took Goddard over

1739
01:28:29,160 --> 01:28:32,040
Speaker 2: twenty nine and a half rush receive. It was twenty

1740
01:28:32,120 --> 01:28:34,679
Speaker 2: nine and a half at a few books. I built

1741
01:28:34,720 --> 01:28:38,360
Speaker 2: it together because you know he has the opportunity to rush.

1742
01:28:38,439 --> 01:28:41,120
Speaker 2: I mean, I know Philly doesn't throw much, but I

1743
01:28:41,120 --> 01:28:43,439
Speaker 2: think he's going to have a decent part of this game,

1744
01:28:43,520 --> 01:28:45,240
Speaker 2: especially if I feel like it's going to be a

1745
01:28:45,280 --> 01:28:48,160
Speaker 2: little bit back and forth. But the bet I have

1746
01:28:48,280 --> 01:28:52,519
Speaker 2: here is Musgrave. I think it offers value DraftKings at

1747
01:28:52,520 --> 01:28:55,280
Speaker 2: plus three sixty again, I think they're going to narrative

1748
01:28:55,320 --> 01:28:57,040
Speaker 2: it and try to give him the ball to make

1749
01:28:57,080 --> 01:29:00,160
Speaker 2: him feel comfortable in the offense. I was trying to

1750
01:29:00,160 --> 01:29:02,520
Speaker 2: get myself to put a bet in on John Fitzpatrick.

1751
01:29:02,920 --> 01:29:05,080
Speaker 2: He's gonna get some routes in the game, but I

1752
01:29:05,160 --> 01:29:07,519
Speaker 2: just don't think. I honestly, you know, ten to one

1753
01:29:07,600 --> 01:29:09,639
Speaker 2: eleven one, I just don't think it's enough. I think

1754
01:29:09,720 --> 01:29:13,040
Speaker 2: musk Grave's the guy here, so I think a touchdown

1755
01:29:13,080 --> 01:29:14,080
Speaker 2: at that price is worth it.

1756
01:29:14,400 --> 01:29:17,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think Fitzpatrick becomes like the Pain Durham bet.

1757
01:29:17,120 --> 01:29:19,639
Speaker 3: We talked about that. With the Bucks playing multiple tight ends,

1758
01:29:19,640 --> 01:29:21,479
Speaker 3: he's the multiple tight ends. If he's gonna be on

1759
01:29:21,479 --> 01:29:23,479
Speaker 3: the field, he's gonna have a shot to score. I

1760
01:29:23,520 --> 01:29:26,040
Speaker 3: looked at the tight end for a touchdown. I've been

1761
01:29:26,320 --> 01:29:28,920
Speaker 3: hitting these Monday night touchdowns, so if you want another one,

1762
01:29:29,280 --> 01:29:31,880
Speaker 3: I looked at Philly's tight end. I think Dallas Goddard

1763
01:29:31,880 --> 01:29:34,360
Speaker 3: plus two thirty five Packers allow a lot.

1764
01:29:34,280 --> 01:29:37,320
Speaker 1: Of tight end touchdowns. He's got seven and seven games.

1765
01:29:37,760 --> 01:29:40,000
Speaker 3: My favorite bet in this game is Sakuon Barkley now

1766
01:29:40,040 --> 01:29:42,160
Speaker 3: as a runner, but as a receiver. I don't mind

1767
01:29:42,200 --> 01:29:44,400
Speaker 3: the touchdown angle. I like that playing both of those.

1768
01:29:44,720 --> 01:29:46,960
Speaker 3: I don't think I'm as a receiver over two and

1769
01:29:47,040 --> 01:29:50,120
Speaker 3: a half receptions. It's even odds he's hit that over

1770
01:29:50,200 --> 01:29:52,880
Speaker 3: in five of eight games. And I'll be honest, I

1771
01:29:53,120 --> 01:29:57,400
Speaker 3: knew I often play running back receptions against the Packers.

1772
01:29:57,800 --> 01:30:01,000
Speaker 3: The way they defend invites running back receptions. They allow

1773
01:30:01,040 --> 01:30:04,519
Speaker 3: the fourth most receptions per game to running back. They

1774
01:30:04,560 --> 01:30:07,120
Speaker 3: play a lot of zone and that leaves open underneath.

1775
01:30:07,120 --> 01:30:10,799
Speaker 3: And in the last fourteen games, they've allowed a running

1776
01:30:10,840 --> 01:30:13,040
Speaker 3: back to have at least four catches four and we

1777
01:30:13,080 --> 01:30:15,320
Speaker 3: only need three. They've allowed at least four and a

1778
01:30:15,320 --> 01:30:19,080
Speaker 3: half of those games, including they have four plus running

1779
01:30:19,120 --> 01:30:22,080
Speaker 3: receptions for running back in those games, they have an eleven,

1780
01:30:22,320 --> 01:30:26,640
Speaker 3: twelve and fourteen receptions game to opposing running backs, not

1781
01:30:26,680 --> 01:30:30,479
Speaker 3: necessarily just one guy, but multiple guys. Like first game

1782
01:30:30,520 --> 01:30:32,719
Speaker 3: of the year, I think Jamior Gibbs had ten catches

1783
01:30:32,760 --> 01:30:35,880
Speaker 3: in that game against the Packers. Just these quick little

1784
01:30:35,960 --> 01:30:38,840
Speaker 3: dump offs and it's not really hurts his go to game.

1785
01:30:39,240 --> 01:30:42,720
Speaker 3: But Saquon's receiving is up two point one receptions a

1786
01:30:42,760 --> 01:30:45,720
Speaker 3: game last year three point zero this year. That's a

1787
01:30:45,760 --> 01:30:49,240
Speaker 3: full reception higher, and it's basically fifty percent higher. He's

1788
01:30:49,280 --> 01:30:52,519
Speaker 3: had four or more in half the games. See, you know,

1789
01:30:52,600 --> 01:30:56,360
Speaker 3: we're playing the receptions escalator four more receptions plus two

1790
01:30:56,360 --> 01:31:00,360
Speaker 3: point fifteen at DraftKings. And if you get four cats catches,

1791
01:31:00,720 --> 01:31:03,360
Speaker 3: the yards aren't always there is. Receiving yards line is

1792
01:31:03,400 --> 01:31:06,439
Speaker 3: like fourteen or something. I don't want that. Sometimes he

1793
01:31:06,520 --> 01:31:09,120
Speaker 3: has like four catches for nine yards. It's just not happening.

1794
01:31:09,479 --> 01:31:12,479
Speaker 3: But it's Saquon maybe hits a long one, so I'm

1795
01:31:12,479 --> 01:31:17,000
Speaker 3: gonna play forty yards receiving, not rushing forty yards receiving.

1796
01:31:17,360 --> 01:31:20,240
Speaker 3: He's done that five times since the start of last November,

1797
01:31:20,320 --> 01:31:22,840
Speaker 3: so about a quarter of the times.

1798
01:31:22,120 --> 01:31:24,839
Speaker 1: Plus six fifty. So if we get four.

1799
01:31:24,640 --> 01:31:27,439
Speaker 3: Catches, maybe takes a little bit, you know, burst on

1800
01:31:27,479 --> 01:31:29,200
Speaker 3: a long one. We get like a twenty five in

1801
01:31:29,280 --> 01:31:32,519
Speaker 3: there and get our way to forty. So Saquon over

1802
01:31:32,560 --> 01:31:35,120
Speaker 3: two and a half catches even ods four catches at

1803
01:31:35,200 --> 01:31:38,439
Speaker 3: just over two to one forty yards receiving or more

1804
01:31:38,800 --> 01:31:42,120
Speaker 3: plus six fifty and otherwise I'm gonna most to sit

1805
01:31:42,160 --> 01:31:44,000
Speaker 3: this one out and just watch a really fun game.

1806
01:31:45,000 --> 01:31:48,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, hopefully he gets a long reception there for a touchdown.

1807
01:31:48,439 --> 01:31:50,960
Speaker 2: We all gettened up at the window. So if you

1808
01:31:50,960 --> 01:31:52,920
Speaker 2: want to tell some of these Monday night football bets,

1809
01:31:53,120 --> 01:31:54,800
Speaker 2: make sure to look for the quick suplink in the

1810
01:31:54,840 --> 01:31:57,439
Speaker 2: podcast and video description or go to action hower dot

1811
01:31:57,439 --> 01:32:00,880
Speaker 2: com slash bet now be et n owt now. You

1812
01:32:00,920 --> 01:32:03,519
Speaker 2: can also find those quick slips in the live YouTube

1813
01:32:03,600 --> 01:32:06,000
Speaker 2: chat if you're still hanging out with us. All right, Brandon,

1814
01:32:06,240 --> 01:32:08,160
Speaker 2: I think we've teased them enough. What are your hot

1815
01:32:08,200 --> 01:32:10,799
Speaker 2: reed plays for next week? In Week eleven?

1816
01:32:11,080 --> 01:32:12,679
Speaker 1: Hot wrap, bo.

1817
01:32:14,080 --> 01:32:20,439
Speaker 2: Ice rights, ice cream?

1818
01:32:21,400 --> 01:32:22,479
Speaker 1: Yeah, first hot read.

1819
01:32:22,560 --> 01:32:24,840
Speaker 3: We are doubling down on what was our look ahead.

1820
01:32:24,880 --> 01:32:27,880
Speaker 3: Give me the Panthers at the Falcons plus three and

1821
01:32:27,920 --> 01:32:30,080
Speaker 3: a half. I think there is one straight plus four

1822
01:32:30,120 --> 01:32:32,200
Speaker 3: out there if you can grab it, and I'm gonna

1823
01:32:32,200 --> 01:32:34,840
Speaker 3: play the money line as well, plus one seventy five

1824
01:32:34,920 --> 01:32:38,719
Speaker 3: for Carolina outright, when this is now four straight weeks,

1825
01:32:39,040 --> 01:32:41,200
Speaker 3: I'm playing a money line in a Panthers game. It's

1826
01:32:41,200 --> 01:32:44,240
Speaker 3: a weird obsession, Evan, what's happening with me? But look,

1827
01:32:44,640 --> 01:32:48,080
Speaker 3: we we had Sunday mapped out to perfection. We had

1828
01:32:48,160 --> 01:32:51,320
Speaker 3: the Colts over the Falcons. Colts ran all over them,

1829
01:32:51,400 --> 01:32:54,400
Speaker 3: just as expected, and then we had Carolina struggling and

1830
01:32:54,439 --> 01:32:57,520
Speaker 3: losing to the Saints, and that is what happened. Carolina

1831
01:32:57,960 --> 01:33:01,680
Speaker 3: is better scripted as an underdog then as the favorite.

1832
01:33:01,840 --> 01:33:04,400
Speaker 1: What do they want to do? Run the ball, stop

1833
01:33:04,439 --> 01:33:05,880
Speaker 1: the run short in the game.

1834
01:33:06,240 --> 01:33:08,080
Speaker 3: You don't want to do that when you're the favorite.

1835
01:33:08,240 --> 01:33:10,920
Speaker 3: But it works great against the Packers in that game,

1836
01:33:11,280 --> 01:33:13,240
Speaker 3: and they worked great against Atlanta.

1837
01:33:13,320 --> 01:33:14,400
Speaker 1: The Panthers beat.

1838
01:33:14,240 --> 01:33:18,360
Speaker 3: Atlanta thirty to nothing this season, like two months ago,

1839
01:33:18,400 --> 01:33:20,960
Speaker 3: and now they're more than a field goal underdog in

1840
01:33:21,040 --> 01:33:21,559
Speaker 3: this game.

1841
01:33:21,880 --> 01:33:23,400
Speaker 1: Despite that, they have.

1842
01:33:23,320 --> 01:33:26,320
Speaker 3: The better record and they're the supposed playoff team or

1843
01:33:26,360 --> 01:33:29,960
Speaker 3: at least contender here. In that game, they shut down

1844
01:33:30,000 --> 01:33:33,360
Speaker 3: Atlanta's run pretty well. They ran the ball thirty times,

1845
01:33:33,760 --> 01:33:36,280
Speaker 3: and they'll let Atlanta beat itself, which is the thing

1846
01:33:36,320 --> 01:33:38,960
Speaker 3: that the Falcons have gone really really good at this season.

1847
01:33:39,080 --> 01:33:43,639
Speaker 3: So Panthers top ten run offense by dvaa bottom ten

1848
01:33:43,720 --> 01:33:46,960
Speaker 3: run defense for Atlanta. I just think it sets up well.

1849
01:33:47,320 --> 01:33:50,240
Speaker 3: In the last two decades, a road underdogs of between

1850
01:33:50,280 --> 01:33:54,280
Speaker 3: three to seven points fifty six point four percent ats

1851
01:33:54,280 --> 01:33:57,280
Speaker 3: in division games. That's almost four hundred games. That that

1852
01:33:57,400 --> 01:34:01,120
Speaker 3: is a very strong sample, a very strong almost ten

1853
01:34:01,160 --> 01:34:05,360
Speaker 3: percent ROI there. And all that said, why did we

1854
01:34:05,439 --> 01:34:08,920
Speaker 3: bet against Atlanta on the look ahead? They were in

1855
01:34:08,960 --> 01:34:12,439
Speaker 3: Berlin today, they started the day out, They're coming back

1856
01:34:12,560 --> 01:34:14,000
Speaker 3: without rest, and.

1857
01:34:14,360 --> 01:34:15,880
Speaker 1: The spot got worse for them.

1858
01:34:15,920 --> 01:34:20,040
Speaker 3: They played overtime in Germany and they got run all

1859
01:34:20,040 --> 01:34:23,800
Speaker 3: over the place by Johnson Taylor. And now this exhausted

1860
01:34:23,840 --> 01:34:27,040
Speaker 3: team comes home, and you know the trend, I love

1861
01:34:27,520 --> 01:34:31,439
Speaker 3: teams after teams with no bye week after international games

1862
01:34:31,800 --> 01:34:34,959
Speaker 3: have been tied or trailing sixteen out of the eighteen

1863
01:34:35,000 --> 01:34:38,479
Speaker 3: to fourth quarters all time in that spot. Now the

1864
01:34:38,520 --> 01:34:41,960
Speaker 3: Falcons are even more tired than we thought because they

1865
01:34:42,000 --> 01:34:45,320
Speaker 3: come back off an overtime game, and if the Panthers

1866
01:34:45,320 --> 01:34:46,840
Speaker 3: are in it late, I think they'll have a chance

1867
01:34:46,880 --> 01:34:50,040
Speaker 3: to steal. So Panthers three and a half four if

1868
01:34:50,040 --> 01:34:52,360
Speaker 3: you can grab it, and a little bit on plus

1869
01:34:52,400 --> 01:34:55,360
Speaker 3: one seventy five on the money line plus one seventy five.

1870
01:34:55,520 --> 01:34:57,759
Speaker 1: I basically make this a coin flip by my numbers.

1871
01:34:57,840 --> 01:35:00,240
Speaker 3: So I'll happily take a plus one seventy five shot

1872
01:35:00,280 --> 01:35:01,600
Speaker 3: at that anytime.

1873
01:35:01,360 --> 01:35:03,639
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm gonna have to look. I'm just curious myself,

1874
01:35:03,640 --> 01:35:06,599
Speaker 2: like how many times a team loses thirty nothing, loses

1875
01:35:06,640 --> 01:35:09,160
Speaker 2: by twenty eight plus and is an underdog in the

1876
01:35:09,200 --> 01:35:12,760
Speaker 2: next meeting. You know, obviously there's a lot going into that,

1877
01:35:12,840 --> 01:35:15,880
Speaker 2: but pretty dominating. So I'll probably put that in the

1878
01:35:15,920 --> 01:35:18,240
Speaker 2: primer this week. All right, you got one more here?

1879
01:35:18,240 --> 01:35:18,720
Speaker 2: What are you doing?

1880
01:35:19,320 --> 01:35:19,800
Speaker 1: One more?

1881
01:35:19,960 --> 01:35:23,200
Speaker 3: Chiefs Broncos gave me the under under forty four and

1882
01:35:23,240 --> 01:35:25,720
Speaker 3: a half. Kind of a weird high read because neither

1883
01:35:25,760 --> 01:35:27,880
Speaker 3: one of those teams played today, and usually we're reading

1884
01:35:27,920 --> 01:35:31,080
Speaker 3: what just happened. The Chiefs were on a bye week,

1885
01:35:31,240 --> 01:35:34,559
Speaker 3: the Broncos arguably barely played this week. We wish they

1886
01:35:34,600 --> 01:35:36,679
Speaker 3: hadn't played. We had to watch it on Thursday night,

1887
01:35:37,000 --> 01:35:39,720
Speaker 3: ten to seven. That'll be fine for under if we

1888
01:35:39,720 --> 01:35:42,400
Speaker 3: get something like that. I think Denver continues to be

1889
01:35:42,880 --> 01:35:44,840
Speaker 3: one of the most fraudulent teams.

1890
01:35:44,520 --> 01:35:45,040
Speaker 1: In the league.

1891
01:35:45,400 --> 01:35:48,080
Speaker 3: In that win, two hundred and twenty yards for the

1892
01:35:48,080 --> 01:35:51,479
Speaker 3: winning team, Denver under four yards of play, thirty seven

1893
01:35:51,520 --> 01:35:55,160
Speaker 3: percent success rate. Bow Knicks was dreadful in that game,

1894
01:35:55,560 --> 01:35:58,679
Speaker 3: minus point three epa per play. The did no business

1895
01:35:58,680 --> 01:36:01,479
Speaker 3: winning that game. That's the offense and the Chiefs defense

1896
01:36:01,520 --> 01:36:03,720
Speaker 3: is going to be fine holding up against them. But

1897
01:36:03,800 --> 01:36:06,400
Speaker 3: of course they do play defense because in that game

1898
01:36:06,439 --> 01:36:09,200
Speaker 3: that they did win, they held the Raiders to one

1899
01:36:09,280 --> 01:36:11,719
Speaker 3: hundred and eighty eight yards and just barely three yards

1900
01:36:11,720 --> 01:36:14,320
Speaker 3: of play and thirty two percent success rate. And I

1901
01:36:14,320 --> 01:36:17,200
Speaker 3: think in this game passer ten is not as big

1902
01:36:17,200 --> 01:36:19,600
Speaker 3: of a loss as other matchups because there's really not

1903
01:36:19,760 --> 01:36:23,200
Speaker 3: that outside receiver the Chiefs need to have matched up

1904
01:36:23,200 --> 01:36:25,160
Speaker 3: against you where she Rice is great, but that's not

1905
01:36:25,280 --> 01:36:28,599
Speaker 3: his game. In Denver games, if you take out Dallas,

1906
01:36:28,600 --> 01:36:31,360
Speaker 3: who we know is an outlier, they're averaging under thirty

1907
01:36:31,360 --> 01:36:33,759
Speaker 3: eight points per game in Denver games. On the season,

1908
01:36:34,080 --> 01:36:36,800
Speaker 3: they've been an unders team and they've been on his

1909
01:36:36,920 --> 01:36:40,000
Speaker 3: team against the Chiefs. Last year, the Chiefs had their

1910
01:36:40,000 --> 01:36:43,679
Speaker 3: two lowest scoring games the season against Denver. Now look,

1911
01:36:44,040 --> 01:36:46,240
Speaker 3: one of those is fake. It was Week eighteen, so

1912
01:36:46,280 --> 01:36:48,640
Speaker 3: that doesn't really count as thirty eight nothing, but it

1913
01:36:48,720 --> 01:36:51,599
Speaker 3: scored sixteen. And the other one and their low scoring

1914
01:36:51,640 --> 01:36:56,200
Speaker 3: game the previous season was against Denver in Denver nine

1915
01:36:56,240 --> 01:37:00,960
Speaker 3: points for Mahomes and by the way, nine points against Denver, who,

1916
01:37:01,120 --> 01:37:05,080
Speaker 3: like a month earlier, gave up seventy to the Dolphins.

1917
01:37:05,400 --> 01:37:09,320
Speaker 3: That same defense found answers and held Patrick Mahomes to

1918
01:37:09,479 --> 01:37:13,160
Speaker 3: nine points. So in the last four games Chiefs Broncos

1919
01:37:13,200 --> 01:37:16,960
Speaker 3: played the last two years, they're averaging thirty two points

1920
01:37:17,000 --> 01:37:21,839
Speaker 3: a game total thirty eight, thirty three, thirty and twenty seven.

1921
01:37:21,960 --> 01:37:24,759
Speaker 3: We said the Week eighteen game didn't count. That's bringing

1922
01:37:24,800 --> 01:37:27,200
Speaker 3: the average up. The other games are all lower than

1923
01:37:27,200 --> 01:37:30,360
Speaker 3: that one. So I think this is under all the way.

1924
01:37:30,880 --> 01:37:34,240
Speaker 3: Both teams want to control the clock. That is what

1925
01:37:34,240 --> 01:37:38,360
Speaker 3: they want. I think this is a very first game

1926
01:37:38,400 --> 01:37:40,960
Speaker 3: of the playoff weekend field game where it's just like

1927
01:37:41,040 --> 01:37:44,080
Speaker 3: the clock's just ticking away and there's not a lot happening,

1928
01:37:44,080 --> 01:37:46,360
Speaker 3: but it's close and it feels like a big deal.

1929
01:37:46,960 --> 01:37:50,400
Speaker 3: Denver seven and three to the under, tops in the

1930
01:37:50,479 --> 01:37:52,519
Speaker 3: league for the season. The Chiefs are six and three

1931
01:37:52,560 --> 01:37:55,240
Speaker 3: to the under. Just behind them. Both teams are top

1932
01:37:55,280 --> 01:37:58,160
Speaker 3: five first and second half to the under. These are

1933
01:37:58,240 --> 01:38:01,559
Speaker 3: under teams under forty four and a half. Forty four

1934
01:38:01,600 --> 01:38:03,720
Speaker 3: down to forty Every one of those numbers is a

1935
01:38:03,760 --> 01:38:05,840
Speaker 3: key number, so you want the value O it's there.

1936
01:38:06,120 --> 01:38:08,200
Speaker 3: It's already forty three and a half at some books.

1937
01:38:08,240 --> 01:38:10,280
Speaker 3: I think it's going to keep moving that way, So

1938
01:38:10,280 --> 01:38:13,720
Speaker 3: I'm gonna take the under Broncos Chiefs and please, for

1939
01:38:13,760 --> 01:38:16,240
Speaker 3: the love of God, Patrick Mahomes, will you please beat

1940
01:38:16,280 --> 01:38:19,080
Speaker 3: the Broncos too. Just keep it under forty four and

1941
01:38:19,120 --> 01:38:20,439
Speaker 3: a half so we can cash our under.

1942
01:38:21,240 --> 01:38:22,800
Speaker 2: Yeah. I think both teams are going to be scared

1943
01:38:22,800 --> 01:38:25,160
Speaker 2: to make mistakes a lot of running. Should be running

1944
01:38:25,160 --> 01:38:28,040
Speaker 2: the clock a lot, So I like the angle there,

1945
01:38:28,040 --> 01:38:29,800
Speaker 2: all right, that'll do it. Here on the Action Hora

1946
01:38:29,880 --> 01:38:34,440
Speaker 2: podcast for our week ten NFL recap episode presented by DraftKings,

1947
01:38:34,680 --> 01:38:36,439
Speaker 2: give us a like on the YouTube video before you

1948
01:38:36,479 --> 01:38:39,479
Speaker 2: take off. We really appreciate it. Now, go to Action

1949
01:38:39,560 --> 01:38:41,840
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01:38:41,840 --> 01:38:45,679
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1951
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1952
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1953
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1954
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1955
01:38:58,160 --> 01:39:00,800
Speaker 2: be back for Action Island before Monday night games right

1956
01:39:00,840 --> 01:39:03,840
Speaker 2: here on Action Networks YouTube page, as well as more

1957
01:39:03,960 --> 01:39:06,920
Speaker 2: NFL bets from Brandon the six Pack from Raybond and

1958
01:39:06,960 --> 01:39:10,599
Speaker 2: Stucky anytime touchdowns and more on the podcast feed next week.

1959
01:39:10,800 --> 01:39:13,799
Speaker 2: Thank you for listening, and good luck with all your bets.

1960
01:39:14,080 --> 01:39:14,880
Speaker 2: Enjoy the day.

1961
01:39:14,920 --> 01:39:34,280
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1962
01:39:34,720 --> 01:39:37,559
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1963
01:39:37,840 --> 01:39:40,439
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1964
01:39:40,520 --> 01:39:41,320
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