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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: Welcome in everybody, This is the Action Network podcast today.

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Speaker 2: This episode is centered around UFC UFC two seventy seven

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Speaker 2: Pana v. Nunez coming to you from the American Airlines

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Speaker 2: Center in Dallas.

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Speaker 1: This UFC betting preview.

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Speaker 2: We have the typical cast of characters, your host Brendan

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Speaker 2: glas Sheen, former MMA fighter, Action Network MMA analyst Billy Ward,

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Speaker 2: and one of our great writers at Action Network, senior

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Speaker 2: writer Sean Zarillo. We will get to everything on this podcast.

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Speaker 2: We start best Bets, We will get there momentarily, also

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Speaker 2: go to the Fight to the Night that the guys

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Speaker 2: have for us, the co main event that will also

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Speaker 2: have thoughts on underdogs props and also again we have

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Speaker 2: best bets at the end of the show.

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Speaker 1: But we start main event.

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Speaker 2: Main event this week Juliana Pania and Amanda Nunez. Payna

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Speaker 2: the favorite or part of me, the underdog at Plus

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Speaker 2: two twenty five beat Nunez in December.

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Speaker 1: Terrific, terrific fight, great story.

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Speaker 2: Penya, No one gave her a shot and what do

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Speaker 2: you know, she was just fantastic in the bantamweight title,

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Speaker 2: so we.

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Speaker 1: Get the rematch.

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Speaker 2: Nunya is one of the all time greats, Sean Zailo,

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Speaker 2: how do we handicap this fight, this main event after

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Speaker 2: seeing what we saw in December?

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Speaker 3: If that even matters, the handicap isn't so much different

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Speaker 3: from what it was the first time these two fought.

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Speaker 3: I basically said to bet Nunez inside the distance, bet

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Speaker 3: her early props, and then live. Bet Juliana Panna after

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Speaker 3: round one, after round two because historically, especially fighting at

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Speaker 3: one thirty five instead of one forty five, noon Az

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Speaker 3: has shown cardio issues. She's good in the early rounds

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Speaker 3: then tires out. Even her fights against Valentina Chefchenko had

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Speaker 3: her best success early. Generally speaking, she has her best

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Speaker 3: success early in fights. She's more of that early finisher

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Speaker 3: archetype who when they don't get the early finish, when

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Speaker 3: they get extended deeper in fights, tend to tire out

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Speaker 3: and don't look as good. So I'm of two minds

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Speaker 3: about betting this rematch. Because Nonez's money line dropped from

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Speaker 3: minus one thousand to minus two to fifty compared to

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Speaker 3: the first fight, the inside the distance odds dropped from

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Speaker 3: minus six hundred to minus two fifty, and even Amanda

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Speaker 3: to win inside the distance drop from minus three p

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Speaker 3: fifty to minus one twenty five. Her round one prop

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Speaker 3: is also improved from plus one fifty to plus two

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Speaker 3: to fifty plus three hundred. So all of the market movement,

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Speaker 3: all of the recency bias in the line is telling

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Speaker 3: me to bet Nunez's finish props to better round one

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Speaker 3: prop because that is the handicap. If she wins, it's

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Speaker 3: probably gonna be an early finish, probably a round one finish,

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Speaker 3: or she's likely going to win inside the distance. That said,

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Speaker 3: given how the fight played out, given how I project it,

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Speaker 3: I have a hard time seeing payna here lower than

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Speaker 3: about forty percent. This is still a woman's bandam weight

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Speaker 3: does not have nearly as high of a finishing rate

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Speaker 3: as like a men's heavyweight fight. For instance, the finishing

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Speaker 3: rate is going to be closer to fifty percent instead

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Speaker 3: of sixty five percent. So you would expect this fight

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Speaker 3: to go later, if not to go to a decision,

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Speaker 3: and based on how that would play out, all of

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Speaker 3: it favors Julie out of Penia Pinus should be winning

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Speaker 3: minutes after the first round, second round, she has a

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Speaker 3: higher upside of finishing noon as later in the fight,

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Speaker 3: and she has of getting finished. Almost all of Nuna's

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Speaker 3: success should be frontloaded in this matchup, and then Payinis

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Speaker 3: should start to take over at some point. So I

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Speaker 3: would expect either fighter to look particularly dominant while they're

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Speaker 3: winning the fight. This is not a five minute fight,

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Speaker 3: not a one round fight. Is a twenty five minute fight,

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Speaker 3: which certainly favors Juliana Pania, so Nunez perhaps the goat.

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Speaker 3: I would give it to Valentina. That said, I don't

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Speaker 3: think this is a good matchup for her. Penia durable

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Speaker 3: enough to survive and then pour it on her late.

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Speaker 3: So Juliana Penna on the money line at plus two

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Speaker 3: twenty five, I think you could justify this closier to

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Speaker 3: plus one fifty and then uh Pania to win inside

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Speaker 3: the distance at plus four to fifty. I projected this

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Speaker 3: around plus three forty five. I'm also going to look

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Speaker 3: to target her live after round one, after round two,

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Speaker 3: after round three. But if you're playing the other side

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Speaker 3: noonas to win in round onenonas to win inside the distance,

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Speaker 3: I think that's the alternative approach instead of playing minus

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Speaker 3: two to fifty on her money line.

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Speaker 2: Okay, and Billy, you've got a similar thought that last

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Speaker 2: thought from Zarrillo going inside the distance on New nes.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, that's how I'm playing it, at least in Actually,

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Speaker 4: I think probably the sharpest way is Nuna's inside the

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Speaker 4: distance if we get a better price on Payne after

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Speaker 4: one or two rounds hit that live.

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Speaker 5: But I don't know. This is a tough one.

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Speaker 4: I think we need to look a little bit past

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Speaker 4: some of the usual ways we handicap stuff with this.

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Speaker 4: Because Nuna is at her best, it's just so much

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Speaker 4: better of a fighter than we've ever seen out of

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Speaker 4: pain yet. But it's a reasonable question about whether she

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Speaker 4: still is at her best. You know, she's pushing thirty five,

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Speaker 4: I believe coming into this one, or just turned thirty four,

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Speaker 4: but you know that she's declining or does she have

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Speaker 4: a lot of weird stuff going on? Before the last

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Speaker 4: one that was the first time in over two years

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Speaker 4: she had fought at one thirty five. In the last one,

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Speaker 4: she'd also apparently had COVID somewhat close to that fight

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Speaker 4: coming into it. So I think some of those cardio issues,

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Speaker 4: while they'd been a longer standing problem for her, I

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Speaker 4: think they were definitely exacerbated and we truly did see

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Speaker 4: her quit in that second round. You know, that rear

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Speaker 4: naked she got caught in. It wasn't so much that

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Speaker 4: it was a perfectly executed choke. It was, you know,

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Speaker 4: a man in nunas had decided she didn't want to

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Speaker 4: be there anymore. I'm playing it where I think just

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Speaker 4: what we've seen from her historically is enough to convince

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Speaker 4: me that that was more of a fluke than.

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Speaker 5: The new normal.

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Speaker 4: And if that's the case, then just the value we're

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Speaker 4: getting on her versus where her lines were before are

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Speaker 4: so strong, so inside the distance minus one twenty five.

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Speaker 4: You know, Sean alluded to that how much those lines

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Speaker 4: have changed since last time. I just don't think we

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Speaker 4: can take that much of a change away from the

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Speaker 4: last fight. Yeah, I'm more than willing to, you know,

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Speaker 4: I don't know if I would bet this one if

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Speaker 4: I couldn't watch it and be watching the live lines,

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Speaker 4: because if she doesn't get it out of there after

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Speaker 4: the first two rounds or so, you're probably gonna get

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Speaker 4: paying you at a huge, huge price if she loses

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Speaker 4: the first two rounds, and then you coulda head you

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Speaker 4: off of that live.

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Speaker 2: Bet onto the co main flyweight title fight. We have

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Speaker 2: Brandon Moreno and Kai Cara front the current lines. Right now,

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Speaker 2: caral France is at plus one plus one eighty five

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Speaker 2: a dog, and Moreno is up to minus two point fifteen.

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Speaker 2: What's your approach here, Seanzrillo.

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Speaker 3: I'm gonna look to live bet Moreno after the first

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Speaker 3: few rounds, wait till Kai wins a round, and then

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Speaker 3: probably try to jumping live a Moreno. Maybe he gets

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Speaker 3: up one nothing, maybe he ties it in the second

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Speaker 3: round at one one, maybe he even goes up to one.

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Speaker 3: But I'm gonna look to target Moreno. Wive if it's

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Speaker 3: either hide or he falls behind it and his price improves.

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Speaker 3: He lost round one in the first fight, poured it

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Speaker 3: on in rounds two and three. Car France has never

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Speaker 3: been in a five round fight before. He's been in

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Speaker 3: a lot of fights, but this is his first career

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Speaker 3: five rounder would be his first time going to the

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Speaker 3: championship rounds. Moreno generally landing more volume and in his opponents.

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Speaker 3: I think car France maybe has a power and speed advantage,

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Speaker 3: particularly early in this fight. Moreno has the durability advantage,

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Speaker 3: he has the cardio advantage, and he seems to wear

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Speaker 3: damage a little bit better than car France does. The

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Speaker 3: stamina and the experience edges for Moreno in the later

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Speaker 3: rounds is what separates them for me. Otherwise, it's a

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Speaker 3: flyweight fight where the margins are going to be very close,

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Speaker 3: so it's tough to pick a winner. It is tough

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Speaker 3: to assume that one of them is going to finish

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Speaker 3: in one of the lower weight classes, though, I think

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Speaker 3: car France's win condition is more connected to a finish.

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Speaker 3: This is a fight taking place in Texas, getting the

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Speaker 3: Mexican fighter going to have some home bias. There's another

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Speaker 3: Mexican fighter on this card as well, Haffa Garcia, who

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Speaker 3: may get some home bias as well with the judges

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Speaker 3: and the scoring in the crowd. So would certainly lean

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Speaker 3: to Moreno, not only in any arena in terms of

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Speaker 3: getting decision, but particularly in Texas. I think Moreno by

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Speaker 3: decision is how it ends up going. I'm just gonna

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Speaker 3: hunt for a better live price after round one, run two,

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Speaker 3: round three, depending on which one he drops or if

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Speaker 3: he falls behind a Kai Billy.

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Speaker 1: Colemayne is Moreno, Cara France. How do you want to

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Speaker 1: bet this?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm looking through the notes I had down before this,

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Speaker 4: and Sean touched on literally every single one of them.

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Speaker 5: This is what I would saying.

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Speaker 4: I think the only thing I would disagree on is

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Speaker 4: I would say he definitely has a speed and power advantage,

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Speaker 4: where Sean said he possibly has a speed power advantage.

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Speaker 4: But you know, I'm getting it picky, but yeah, I'm

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Speaker 4: with Sean. I'm going to have a pre fight bet

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Speaker 4: on Carl France inside the distance because plus five hundred

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Speaker 4: on that is just crazy. If we're saying he's a

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Speaker 4: plus one eighty underdog and we think he can't go three,

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Speaker 4: four or five rounds, you know, those lines should be

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Speaker 4: a lot closer.

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Speaker 5: To each other.

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Speaker 4: But basically, I'm gonna have my car France inside the

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Speaker 4: distanced and end of the fight, and I'm just gonna

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Speaker 4: be watching to see if we can get moreno it

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Speaker 4: close to even money or better than that. And yeah,

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Speaker 4: so I'm right there with Sean. I do really like

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Speaker 4: the speed and power of car France, but beyond that,

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Speaker 4: I don't know where his advantage lies. So yeah, I'm

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Speaker 4: trying to get plus money bets on both guys and

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Speaker 4: that way we win either way.

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Speaker 3: Should mention Marino as the grappling upside too. He didn't

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Speaker 3: try to grapple in their first fight, but it seems

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Speaker 3: like his takedown game wrestling game has gotten better, so

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Speaker 3: should be relatively close as a striking fight. But you

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Speaker 3: have to give all the grappling outside of Marina.

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Speaker 4: To that point though, he car France did manage to

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Speaker 4: keep it staying against Ask car Ask the entire time

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Speaker 4: his last fight, So I'm guessing this is, you know,

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Speaker 4: probably ninety plus percent on the feet throughout the fight.

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Speaker 4: So I don't disagree that he has the offensive advantage.

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Speaker 4: I just don't think that comes into play here.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, probably a boxing match for twenty five minutes.

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Speaker 2: Moreno's takedown accuracy, too, is just a sky high compared

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Speaker 2: to one of a car France.

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Speaker 1: And you guys have been doing this for a while together, so.

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Speaker 2: To have cross silver on this podcast at this point

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Speaker 2: is no longer a surprise anytho. Moving on, let's go

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Speaker 2: to our favorite underdog plays. Because when you scan the car,

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Speaker 2: there are always angles you can take to get an

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Speaker 2: edge on the market.

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Speaker 1: Zarrella, you're one of the best at that. What do

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Speaker 1: you have for us?

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Speaker 3: Alex Perez plus one seventy projected him a round plus

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Speaker 3: one forty five. I also like his decision line at

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Speaker 3: plus three to fifty, projected that plus three eighty. Actually

220
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Speaker 3: on by decision for Perez, projected that closer to plus

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Speaker 3: three hundred. I think he's the better technician. He has

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Speaker 3: the best better wrestling, and likely the cardio advantage too.

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Speaker 3: I know cutting the one twenty five is tough for him,

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Speaker 3: but Pantosia has slowed down in the later parts of

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Speaker 3: his fights in the past. Pantosia is the better grappler

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Speaker 3: in terms of submission grappling. He has more power but

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Speaker 3: less technical than Perez. I said Perez the better wrestler,

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Speaker 3: so I think he's should be able to determine where

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Speaker 3: this fight takes place. I would expect him to try

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Speaker 3: to counter wrestle, keep it on the feet, or to

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Speaker 3: try to gain top position and sort of hold Pantosia

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Speaker 3: down and tire him. He's taking two years off, it's

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Speaker 3: a difficult weight cut for him. I think that's all

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Speaker 3: priced into the lines.

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Speaker 5: Go for skill.

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Speaker 3: These guys are much closer to even. It should play

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Speaker 3: out as a fairly even fight. I would expect Pantosia's

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Speaker 3: success to be front loaded. Should have most of his

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Speaker 3: success in the first round. So again another live betting spot.

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Speaker 3: This is a great card for live betting. Alex Perez

241
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Speaker 3: live after round one because wrestling should eventually take over

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Speaker 3: plus one seventy on the money line. Definitely love that

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Speaker 3: pre fight. I'll look to take more life.

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Speaker 1: Okay, Billy favorite underdog for us this weekend.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm going with Mike Mathetha or Blood Diamond or

246
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Speaker 4: whatever they're calling him at whatever book you're looking at now,

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Speaker 4: because no one seems to be totally convinced what we're

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Speaker 4: going with. But he had, you know, a lot of

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Speaker 4: hype coming into the UFC's City kickboxing prospect same jim

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Speaker 4: Is Cara France and Volkovski and Adasanya. You know, obviously

251
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Speaker 4: excellent kickboxing, that's where his background is. But he just

252
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Speaker 4: got a terrible matchup in his UFC debut with Jeremiah Wells,

253
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Speaker 4: who's like probably one of the best walterweight grapplers you

254
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Speaker 4: know from Henzo Gracie Philly where they're all excellent grapplers,

255
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Speaker 4: and Blood Diamond looked bad.

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Speaker 5: You know.

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Speaker 4: Wells basically just chased him around while he ran away

258
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Speaker 4: before he finally got the takedown.

259
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Speaker 5: And then made real short work from him on the ground.

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Speaker 4: But I think he's probably came a long way since then.

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Speaker 4: You know, City Kickboxing has taken guys like Gottasanya and

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Speaker 4: turned him into MMA fighters when they.

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Speaker 5: Were just kickboxers prior to that.

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Speaker 4: And we're going about the same money line odds on

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Speaker 4: Blood Diamond that we saw in his last fight, And

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Speaker 4: I just think the matchup with the Ryan Costke is

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Speaker 4: significantly easier than against Jeremiah Wells. Not the costc can't

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Speaker 4: grapple or not, they won't have a huge advantage if

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Speaker 4: it gets down there. But I don't think he's anywhere

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Speaker 4: near Jeremia Wells. I think Wells would be a huge

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Speaker 4: favorite over Costca right now. So I think the hype

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Speaker 4: on Blood Diamond kind of pays off a little bit

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Speaker 4: more on this one. I think he really doesn't need

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Speaker 4: a ton of time on the feet to get an

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Speaker 4: advantage over Costca, And I'm just banking on City Kickboxing

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Speaker 4: and the guys that are turning him into more of

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Speaker 4: a complete fighter. So plus one sixty five that's more

278
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Speaker 4: than enough value for me.

279
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Speaker 2: This is your UFC two to seventy seven betting preview

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Speaker 2: Brendan Glasheen, Billy Ward, Sean Zarrillo taking you through the card.

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Speaker 2: This is all taking place at the American Airlines Center

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Speaker 2: in Dallas.

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Speaker 1: We move on to the guys fight of the night.

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Speaker 2: Derek Lewis is a slight dog at plus one twenty

285
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Speaker 2: five opposing Sergey Pavlovich at minus one forty five. So

286
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Speaker 2: this one's a little closer than the previous two that

287
00:13:32,320 --> 00:13:36,240
Speaker 2: we've dived into at this stage of the show. Zarrilla,

288
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Speaker 2: what is the angle here on this fight?

289
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Speaker 3: Yeah, there's two ways that this fight is going to

290
00:13:42,000 --> 00:13:44,760
Speaker 3: play out. Either they swang and bang and somebody falls

291
00:13:44,840 --> 00:13:49,040
Speaker 3: relatively quickly, or you have two guys who are bad

292
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Speaker 3: minute winners with bad cardio nobody gets finished. Or they

293
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Speaker 3: have a staring contest and we see what happens over

294
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Speaker 3: fifteen minutes. So Derek Lewis get another guy getting the

295
00:13:58,600 --> 00:14:01,760
Speaker 3: beneficiary of home judging here. Most likely if it is

296
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Speaker 3: a staring contest, if it is low volume, Lewis is

297
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Speaker 3: going to be the guy getting the cheers from the crowd,

298
00:14:07,520 --> 00:14:10,800
Speaker 3: especially against the Russian, probably going to be getting the scorecard,

299
00:14:10,920 --> 00:14:13,680
Speaker 3: not from the judges. Lewis undefeated on the scorecards in

300
00:14:13,720 --> 00:14:19,320
Speaker 3: his career. Pavlovich generally gets early finishes, and if he doesn't,

301
00:14:19,520 --> 00:14:22,600
Speaker 3: he has major question marks surrounding him. Also has major

302
00:14:22,680 --> 00:14:25,720
Speaker 3: grappling holes too. I think Lewis has the grappling edge here.

303
00:14:26,040 --> 00:14:28,480
Speaker 3: He's gone for trip takedowns in his recent fights. I

304
00:14:28,480 --> 00:14:31,480
Speaker 3: wouldn't be surprised to see him trip pavolc put him

305
00:14:31,520 --> 00:14:34,360
Speaker 3: on bottom and land some ground and pound Lewis at

306
00:14:34,360 --> 00:14:37,720
Speaker 3: plus money with the grappling advantage in a coin flip fight.

307
00:14:37,760 --> 00:14:40,560
Speaker 3: Basically every time he's out there with his power and

308
00:14:40,640 --> 00:14:42,880
Speaker 3: going against another guy who's a bad minute winner with

309
00:14:42,920 --> 00:14:45,720
Speaker 3: bad cardio, I don't see how you don't bet Derek

310
00:14:45,760 --> 00:14:48,360
Speaker 3: Lewis here around plus one twenty plus one twenty five.

311
00:14:48,720 --> 00:14:51,400
Speaker 3: I would probably bet either guy in this matchup at

312
00:14:51,440 --> 00:14:53,800
Speaker 3: that price because this is basically a true coin flip.

313
00:14:53,840 --> 00:14:58,280
Speaker 3: But Lewis has some decision equity, certainly always has knockout equity,

314
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Speaker 3: considering he is the UFC's knockout. So Derek Lewis from

315
00:15:01,280 --> 00:15:05,320
Speaker 3: plus one twenty plus one twenty five purely on pricing,

316
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Speaker 3: I'm surprised this much steam has coming on Pavlech.

317
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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a he's minus one forty five.

318
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Speaker 2: Again, that's his money line, his money line right now,

319
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Speaker 2: and Lewis at plus one twenty five.

320
00:15:15,520 --> 00:15:16,280
Speaker 1: What do you think, Billy?

321
00:15:17,400 --> 00:15:19,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, I want to find all these people that are

322
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Speaker 4: continuing to bet Pavlovitch at the odds that he's at

323
00:15:22,880 --> 00:15:24,440
Speaker 4: right now, because I don't I don't understand how you

324
00:15:24,440 --> 00:15:26,640
Speaker 4: build a case for either of these guys being a

325
00:15:26,680 --> 00:15:29,400
Speaker 4: heavy favorite or just you know, betting against Derek Lewis

326
00:15:29,400 --> 00:15:31,280
Speaker 4: when you have to lay a big price. He can

327
00:15:31,320 --> 00:15:33,840
Speaker 4: turn off anyone's lights. We've seen him do it. Sean

328
00:15:33,880 --> 00:15:35,720
Speaker 4: mentioned the cardio thing. I think that's actually going to

329
00:15:35,800 --> 00:15:39,400
Speaker 4: be considerably more for Lewis than giving him credit. You know,

330
00:15:39,520 --> 00:15:41,320
Speaker 4: I know, we try to look at physiques a little

331
00:15:41,360 --> 00:15:43,600
Speaker 4: bit and judge cardio and Derek Lewis doesn't strike you

332
00:15:43,640 --> 00:15:45,680
Speaker 4: as a guy who's in tremendous shape when you look

333
00:15:45,720 --> 00:15:47,840
Speaker 4: at him. But those guys actually tend to hold up

334
00:15:47,840 --> 00:15:49,680
Speaker 4: a lot better than the big, muscular, you know, ivan

335
00:15:49,760 --> 00:15:52,880
Speaker 4: drago looking dudes that Derek Lewis tends to fight. Does

336
00:15:52,880 --> 00:15:54,920
Speaker 4: all that muscle uses a lot of oxygen, uses a

337
00:15:54,920 --> 00:15:57,160
Speaker 4: lot of energy. Lewis is pretty calm. He doesn't burn

338
00:15:57,240 --> 00:15:59,320
Speaker 4: himself out. You know, he throws a couple of big shots,

339
00:15:59,360 --> 00:16:01,560
Speaker 4: takes him innuty two off rins and repeat.

340
00:16:01,800 --> 00:16:03,040
Speaker 5: I actually like that strategy.

341
00:16:03,080 --> 00:16:05,320
Speaker 4: I think if he gets hurt a little bit early

342
00:16:05,720 --> 00:16:08,280
Speaker 4: but manages to survive, than Derek Lewis live is gonna

343
00:16:08,280 --> 00:16:09,320
Speaker 4: be an awesome opportunity.

344
00:16:09,640 --> 00:16:10,640
Speaker 5: But other than that, I'm a sean.

345
00:16:10,680 --> 00:16:12,520
Speaker 4: If I can get Derek Lewis at plus I honestly

346
00:16:12,560 --> 00:16:14,760
Speaker 4: can't think of anyone I wouldn't bet Derek Lewis at

347
00:16:14,760 --> 00:16:16,480
Speaker 4: plus money against at this point.

348
00:16:18,480 --> 00:16:22,240
Speaker 1: Excellent. All right, let's go to a prop place again.

349
00:16:22,320 --> 00:16:24,640
Speaker 2: We encourage all of you to chop the lines and

350
00:16:24,640 --> 00:16:28,000
Speaker 2: shop around the books and get your best edges possible.

351
00:16:28,200 --> 00:16:29,400
Speaker 1: Where are we looking in the prop market?

352
00:16:29,480 --> 00:16:34,480
Speaker 3: Zerrillo, Anthony Smith and Maga man Caliath fight to go

353
00:16:34,560 --> 00:16:37,640
Speaker 3: to a decision at minus one twenty five. I projected

354
00:16:37,640 --> 00:16:40,600
Speaker 3: this line closer to sixty percent and minus one fifty,

355
00:16:40,640 --> 00:16:42,600
Speaker 3: so I definitely think there's value in that minus one

356
00:16:42,680 --> 00:16:43,600
Speaker 3: twenty five number.

357
00:16:44,200 --> 00:16:45,560
Speaker 1: The easiest path.

358
00:16:45,360 --> 00:16:47,920
Speaker 3: Of victory for ank Eliath, who is a huge favorite here,

359
00:16:48,520 --> 00:16:52,120
Speaker 3: is to wrestle Smith. Historically does not have good takedown defense.

360
00:16:53,040 --> 00:16:56,560
Speaker 3: He's a very good grappler, good at reversing position. Ankle

361
00:16:56,600 --> 00:16:58,920
Speaker 3: Ive very good top pressure, though I don't really see

362
00:16:58,960 --> 00:17:03,200
Speaker 3: him getting out from underneath Ankliev threatening him from guard

363
00:17:03,640 --> 00:17:07,080
Speaker 3: reversing positions. If ankle Ev decides to pursue the takedown,

364
00:17:07,080 --> 00:17:10,720
Speaker 3: the only issue is ank Lv rarely shoots takedowns at

365
00:17:10,760 --> 00:17:13,879
Speaker 3: high volume, generally only one in each of his fights

366
00:17:13,880 --> 00:17:17,440
Speaker 3: dead Land two against Nikita Krylov, So I'm hoping ankle

367
00:17:17,480 --> 00:17:20,600
Speaker 3: Ive sees the easiest path here, decides the wrestle and

368
00:17:20,640 --> 00:17:22,679
Speaker 3: we get a lot of grappling where they're chest the

369
00:17:22,760 --> 00:17:26,040
Speaker 3: chest and not doing much for the duration of the fight.

370
00:17:26,119 --> 00:17:28,120
Speaker 3: But even when it's on the feet, ankle Ive very

371
00:17:28,160 --> 00:17:31,359
Speaker 3: measured first the counter has a really good check left hook.

372
00:17:31,600 --> 00:17:33,720
Speaker 3: It's going to wait for Smith to initiate. But Smith

373
00:17:33,760 --> 00:17:35,960
Speaker 3: is a bigger guy than in a lot of fights

374
00:17:36,000 --> 00:17:39,240
Speaker 3: tons of experience, has proven himself to be very durable.

375
00:17:39,359 --> 00:17:42,040
Speaker 3: So two guys who I think are on the more

376
00:17:42,119 --> 00:17:45,399
Speaker 3: durable end of the light heavyweight scale both should have

377
00:17:45,480 --> 00:17:46,720
Speaker 3: enough to survive on the ground.

378
00:17:46,760 --> 00:17:47,800
Speaker 1: In the submission game.

379
00:17:48,240 --> 00:17:52,040
Speaker 3: Expect some grappling, some cage push, some wrestling between these

380
00:17:52,040 --> 00:17:54,199
Speaker 3: two where Clock is going to get burned off. So

381
00:17:54,720 --> 00:17:56,879
Speaker 3: do not see as high of a probability of a

382
00:17:56,880 --> 00:17:59,240
Speaker 3: finish here in a light heavyweight fight, as I typically

383
00:17:59,280 --> 00:18:01,159
Speaker 3: would for the division, and I think both of these

384
00:18:01,200 --> 00:18:03,119
Speaker 3: guys are very measured. So fight to go to decision

385
00:18:03,160 --> 00:18:07,240
Speaker 3: at minus one twenty five. I don't think there's necessarily

386
00:18:08,440 --> 00:18:11,760
Speaker 3: any argument against betting Smith by decision either betting Smith

387
00:18:11,800 --> 00:18:13,760
Speaker 3: on the money line at plus four hundred. Ankle Live

388
00:18:13,840 --> 00:18:16,399
Speaker 3: tends to get into very low volume fights where he

389
00:18:16,440 --> 00:18:19,320
Speaker 3: gives away minutes, so I think the underdog is actually

390
00:18:19,359 --> 00:18:21,320
Speaker 3: Live in this spot too. I'm just going to take

391
00:18:21,320 --> 00:18:23,280
Speaker 3: the fight to go to a decision, though. But Smith,

392
00:18:23,600 --> 00:18:26,119
Speaker 3: again another American who may get the benefit of some

393
00:18:26,200 --> 00:18:30,359
Speaker 3: hometown judging against the Russian fighters. So look out for Smith,

394
00:18:30,480 --> 00:18:33,400
Speaker 3: look out for Smith by decision. Definitely prefer the GTD though.

395
00:18:34,160 --> 00:18:37,000
Speaker 2: To take folks behind the curtain, Zerillo and Billy. They'll

396
00:18:37,040 --> 00:18:40,000
Speaker 2: send over their picks via email the night before and

397
00:18:40,040 --> 00:18:42,720
Speaker 2: then we compile and we come to the show and

398
00:18:42,760 --> 00:18:46,199
Speaker 2: we deliver in the best way possible. But Billy correct

399
00:18:46,200 --> 00:18:50,720
Speaker 2: me if I'm wrong. You have an end round one. Yeah,

400
00:18:51,640 --> 00:18:53,120
Speaker 2: it's been a while since you've ever done that.

401
00:18:53,800 --> 00:18:55,160
Speaker 1: Where's what's value there?

402
00:18:55,400 --> 00:18:57,280
Speaker 4: Well, some just stood out at me. I was watching

403
00:18:57,280 --> 00:19:00,080
Speaker 4: the quoties, which I'm probably butchering.

404
00:18:59,800 --> 00:19:02,160
Speaker 1: That, but this is a tough one on both sides

405
00:19:02,160 --> 00:19:02,520
Speaker 1: of the fight.

406
00:19:03,760 --> 00:19:06,440
Speaker 4: I was watching his DWCS spout and I noticed so

407
00:19:06,440 --> 00:19:08,120
Speaker 4: not really interesting. You know, if you just look at

408
00:19:08,119 --> 00:19:10,920
Speaker 4: the game log, it's a first round, it's a late

409
00:19:10,960 --> 00:19:13,919
Speaker 4: first round stoppage, he knocked his opponent out, whatever. But

410
00:19:14,000 --> 00:19:15,480
Speaker 4: if you actually go back and watch the fight, he

411
00:19:15,520 --> 00:19:18,720
Speaker 4: came out super aggressively, almost put his opponent away, and

412
00:19:18,760 --> 00:19:20,879
Speaker 4: then looked like he himself was about to get finished

413
00:19:20,920 --> 00:19:24,040
Speaker 4: before a very fortunate for him growing shot happened and

414
00:19:24,040 --> 00:19:25,959
Speaker 4: gave him two or three minutes to catch his breath,

415
00:19:26,240 --> 00:19:28,320
Speaker 4: and then following that he came out and finished the guy.

416
00:19:28,400 --> 00:19:29,919
Speaker 4: So what that's telling me is he's going to come

417
00:19:29,920 --> 00:19:32,800
Speaker 4: out extremely aggressively. He's either going to get a finished

418
00:19:32,840 --> 00:19:35,520
Speaker 4: right away or gas out within the first round and

419
00:19:35,560 --> 00:19:38,280
Speaker 4: get finished. And you know, I think that's the thing

420
00:19:38,320 --> 00:19:40,640
Speaker 4: that fighters as they get more experienced, tend to fix

421
00:19:40,680 --> 00:19:42,760
Speaker 4: in their career. I don't think your first fight in

422
00:19:42,760 --> 00:19:44,480
Speaker 4: front of the bright lights on a pay per view

423
00:19:44,560 --> 00:19:46,560
Speaker 4: in the UFC is going to be the time that

424
00:19:46,600 --> 00:19:49,400
Speaker 4: you take a more measured or cautious approach, and he's

425
00:19:49,440 --> 00:19:53,120
Speaker 4: fighting Nick Negua Morano, who also has good finishing ability.

426
00:19:53,160 --> 00:19:54,880
Speaker 4: You know, he's got wins by submissions, he's got win

427
00:19:54,920 --> 00:19:58,520
Speaker 4: by knockout. I think Nega Moran, who can survive that opening,

428
00:19:58,720 --> 00:20:01,000
Speaker 4: you know, flurry from him probably put him away as

429
00:20:01,000 --> 00:20:02,399
Speaker 4: long as he doesn't you know, poke him in the

430
00:20:02,440 --> 00:20:04,240
Speaker 4: eye or kick him below the belt or something crazy

431
00:20:04,280 --> 00:20:06,680
Speaker 4: like that. So I like a little bit of potier

432
00:20:06,680 --> 00:20:09,240
Speaker 4: areas to win in round one. You can get that

433
00:20:09,240 --> 00:20:11,640
Speaker 4: at plus four hundred or so. But my referred line

434
00:20:11,640 --> 00:20:13,240
Speaker 4: on that is just that the fight ends in round

435
00:20:13,280 --> 00:20:14,240
Speaker 4: one at plus two hundred.

436
00:20:14,720 --> 00:20:18,520
Speaker 1: Okay, very good. Let's go to the DFS landscape.

437
00:20:18,560 --> 00:20:21,439
Speaker 2: Sometimes folks that tune in, they not everyone gets an

438
00:20:21,440 --> 00:20:25,199
Speaker 2: opportunity to bet on this stuff, So giving a DFS

439
00:20:25,320 --> 00:20:28,560
Speaker 2: breakdown is always good. So, Billy, you've got the contest

440
00:20:28,640 --> 00:20:33,480
Speaker 2: up here, the draftings contest. Where how are we constructing here?

441
00:20:33,560 --> 00:20:37,520
Speaker 1: GPPs? Cash games? Similar approach? I mean, like I normally

442
00:20:37,520 --> 00:20:39,080
Speaker 1: ask you how would you go about building here?

443
00:20:39,680 --> 00:20:40,959
Speaker 5: Yeah, this is a tricky one.

444
00:20:41,000 --> 00:20:43,080
Speaker 4: You know, anytime we have the multiple five round fights,

445
00:20:43,359 --> 00:20:45,440
Speaker 4: I think for cash games, I'm probably just can play

446
00:20:45,440 --> 00:20:47,439
Speaker 4: all four fighters from those fights. It opens up a

447
00:20:47,440 --> 00:20:49,840
Speaker 4: lot of salary and can kind of do you have

448
00:20:49,880 --> 00:20:52,320
Speaker 4: a lot more flexibility outside of that. But you know,

449
00:20:52,320 --> 00:20:54,640
Speaker 4: the minus two to fifty stoppagots on Pain and noon

450
00:20:54,680 --> 00:20:57,280
Speaker 4: As it's a little bit scary because there's a potential

451
00:20:57,320 --> 00:20:59,320
Speaker 4: that you know, we only get one good score out

452
00:20:59,359 --> 00:21:01,200
Speaker 4: of the two of them. You know, we broke that

453
00:21:01,480 --> 00:21:03,600
Speaker 4: down further about why we think that might be. I

454
00:21:03,600 --> 00:21:05,920
Speaker 4: think you pretty much have to play Moreno in Carl France.

455
00:21:05,920 --> 00:21:07,719
Speaker 4: If we're expecting a boxing match should be a ton

456
00:21:07,760 --> 00:21:10,880
Speaker 4: of striking, Someone's gonna get a good amount of points there,

457
00:21:10,920 --> 00:21:13,399
Speaker 4: even if France puts them away. I think Moreno probably

458
00:21:13,359 --> 00:21:15,320
Speaker 4: scored some points before that point.

459
00:21:15,480 --> 00:21:17,880
Speaker 5: So I can see the case of rading Pana or Nonaz.

460
00:21:17,880 --> 00:21:20,200
Speaker 4: It hurtsai, you know, if you think that Pain is

461
00:21:20,200 --> 00:21:21,679
Speaker 4: gonna out last her and win that one.

462
00:21:22,119 --> 00:21:24,200
Speaker 5: And then outside of that, I really like Michael Morales.

463
00:21:24,240 --> 00:21:26,280
Speaker 4: He's ninety five hundred, but he's fighting a short notice

464
00:21:26,320 --> 00:21:29,280
Speaker 4: replacement guy who doesn't look like he's really anywhere near

465
00:21:29,359 --> 00:21:30,040
Speaker 4: UFC level.

466
00:21:30,119 --> 00:21:31,840
Speaker 5: Morale has looked really good in his debut.

467
00:21:32,440 --> 00:21:35,000
Speaker 4: Then on the cheaper side, I like both Rafael's or

468
00:21:35,119 --> 00:21:38,119
Speaker 4: Rafa and Rafael. You know, there's seventy two hundred and

469
00:21:38,119 --> 00:21:41,480
Speaker 4: seventy one hundred respectively for Alvez and Garcia. I think

470
00:21:41,520 --> 00:21:43,879
Speaker 4: both of them have some upside to win their fights.

471
00:21:44,359 --> 00:21:46,479
Speaker 4: But the Garcia fight is plus one forty eight end

472
00:21:46,480 --> 00:21:49,120
Speaker 4: inside the distance, so you know, he's probably a better

473
00:21:49,160 --> 00:21:50,800
Speaker 4: cash game play just because he should be able to

474
00:21:50,800 --> 00:21:54,199
Speaker 4: score some points against Close, and I like Rafael Alvez

475
00:21:54,240 --> 00:21:55,520
Speaker 4: to possibly upset Drew Dover.

476
00:21:55,640 --> 00:21:57,960
Speaker 5: So those are the cheaper fighters I'm looking at. But

477
00:21:58,040 --> 00:21:59,840
Speaker 5: it's a tricky one. You. I don't think too many of.

478
00:21:59,840 --> 00:22:02,879
Speaker 4: The super expensive fighters are great plays, and Kalaiev is

479
00:22:02,880 --> 00:22:05,200
Speaker 4: the most expensive outside morale Is and Sean just laid

480
00:22:05,200 --> 00:22:07,000
Speaker 4: out while that one's probably not gonna be a huge

481
00:22:07,000 --> 00:22:09,880
Speaker 4: back and forth barn Burner. Then we've got Newnas who

482
00:22:09,880 --> 00:22:12,160
Speaker 4: has their issues, and then Close and Dover, who I'm

483
00:22:12,440 --> 00:22:15,159
Speaker 4: not super interested in. So I'm gonna have more balanced

484
00:22:15,160 --> 00:22:17,520
Speaker 4: builds this time. And then obviously you got to play

485
00:22:17,520 --> 00:22:20,399
Speaker 4: one of either Lewis or Pavlovich like that one's should

486
00:22:20,400 --> 00:22:22,280
Speaker 4: be pretty clear. I think you just locked one of

487
00:22:22,320 --> 00:22:24,840
Speaker 4: those guys into every or almost every line up you build.

488
00:22:25,359 --> 00:22:27,159
Speaker 1: Okayzarella, you got thoughts on this?

489
00:22:28,200 --> 00:22:29,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, a lot of fighters at the cheaper und that

490
00:22:29,840 --> 00:22:32,760
Speaker 3: I like this week. Julliana Penny at seven k. Hapa Garcia,

491
00:22:32,800 --> 00:22:35,120
Speaker 3: who Billy mentioned I think is great for cash games,

492
00:22:35,560 --> 00:22:38,240
Speaker 3: should be in a close and competitive fight, should be

493
00:22:38,240 --> 00:22:39,879
Speaker 3: able to land takedowns of his own. I think he

494
00:22:39,880 --> 00:22:41,840
Speaker 3: could put up a high score even in a loss.

495
00:22:42,320 --> 00:22:44,600
Speaker 3: Kaikr France at seven point three should have a lot

496
00:22:44,640 --> 00:22:48,000
Speaker 3: of volume for five round fight. I talked about Perez

497
00:22:48,040 --> 00:22:50,720
Speaker 3: ait seven point five k, and then, as Billy mentioned,

498
00:22:51,000 --> 00:22:53,080
Speaker 3: probably set a rule where you have either one of

499
00:22:53,200 --> 00:22:56,520
Speaker 3: Lewis or Pavlovich in all lineups. But yeah, definitely gonna

500
00:22:56,520 --> 00:22:58,800
Speaker 3: be against Nunia is probably for me in my lineups

501
00:22:58,800 --> 00:23:00,800
Speaker 3: going with Penny and a lot of them use that

502
00:23:00,880 --> 00:23:01,800
Speaker 3: salary elsewhere.

503
00:23:02,560 --> 00:23:04,080
Speaker 1: Okay, makes sense, makes sense.

504
00:23:04,400 --> 00:23:07,560
Speaker 2: So a chance to save in the DraftKings or whatever

505
00:23:07,600 --> 00:23:10,000
Speaker 2: contest to play in the daily fantasy contest.

506
00:23:10,040 --> 00:23:11,000
Speaker 5: So there you go.

507
00:23:11,119 --> 00:23:12,879
Speaker 2: All right, Before we go, as we always do, we

508
00:23:12,920 --> 00:23:16,200
Speaker 2: wrap up this UFC two to seventy seven betting preview

509
00:23:16,280 --> 00:23:18,919
Speaker 2: with best bets Sean Zerrela.

510
00:23:18,960 --> 00:23:19,919
Speaker 1: You can go first. Then we'll go to.

511
00:23:19,960 --> 00:23:23,880
Speaker 3: Billy downtel May's minus one eighty on the money line

512
00:23:23,880 --> 00:23:26,960
Speaker 3: and projected him closer to seventy percent minus two thirty

513
00:23:27,040 --> 00:23:32,280
Speaker 3: three facing a debutante in Hammed Hamdi Abdelwahab. This guy

514
00:23:32,359 --> 00:23:36,640
Speaker 3: is an Egyptian wrestler, very limited MMA experience, just five fights.

515
00:23:37,240 --> 00:23:40,560
Speaker 3: He's a Greco Roman wrestler, so not a freestyle guy.

516
00:23:41,280 --> 00:23:45,320
Speaker 3: Generally prefer freestyle wrestlers for MMA more. Those double leg takedowns,

517
00:23:45,520 --> 00:23:48,920
Speaker 3: those upper body takedowns are just not quite as effective

518
00:23:49,359 --> 00:23:51,840
Speaker 3: in MMA if you could fight for under hooks. If

519
00:23:51,880 --> 00:23:54,280
Speaker 3: Mays has the takedown defense to keep the fight on

520
00:23:54,280 --> 00:23:57,119
Speaker 3: the feet, he's probably gonna finish. He's got four inches

521
00:23:57,160 --> 00:24:00,239
Speaker 3: of height, nine inches of reach, should be doing more

522
00:24:00,320 --> 00:24:03,399
Speaker 3: damage even if Homdy is wrestling him. So based on

523
00:24:03,440 --> 00:24:07,520
Speaker 3: the screwing criteria, I think Homdy's upside is pretty limited,

524
00:24:07,560 --> 00:24:09,720
Speaker 3: just because he doesn't do a ton of damage aside

525
00:24:09,720 --> 00:24:13,720
Speaker 3: from trying to wrestle his opponents. Better striking, cardio, level

526
00:24:13,760 --> 00:24:18,040
Speaker 3: of competition, much more MMA experience, All pointing in Mays's favor.

527
00:24:18,119 --> 00:24:19,720
Speaker 3: I know he's a big favorite. I know he's not

528
00:24:19,760 --> 00:24:22,720
Speaker 3: the most talented guy, but he's shown some improvements in

529
00:24:22,760 --> 00:24:25,320
Speaker 3: his recent fights, and he's taking a major step down

530
00:24:25,320 --> 00:24:29,000
Speaker 3: in competition here. So May's line mays inside the distance

531
00:24:29,040 --> 00:24:31,320
Speaker 3: of plus one fifty probably both bets for me.

532
00:24:32,440 --> 00:24:33,600
Speaker 1: Okay, Billy take us home.

533
00:24:34,680 --> 00:24:34,880
Speaker 3: Yeah.

534
00:24:34,960 --> 00:24:37,439
Speaker 4: To Sean's point, not only does ebdil Wahab only have

535
00:24:37,520 --> 00:24:39,919
Speaker 4: five professional fights, they've all been within the last like

536
00:24:40,000 --> 00:24:42,080
Speaker 4: nine months or so, and two of them were bare

537
00:24:42,160 --> 00:24:45,440
Speaker 4: knuckle fights that were like in jeree Masfudal's backyard or something.

538
00:24:45,480 --> 00:24:46,960
Speaker 4: I don't know if that's where they really do the game,

539
00:24:47,000 --> 00:24:49,800
Speaker 4: red bare knuckle fights. But so not only is it,

540
00:24:49,840 --> 00:24:52,400
Speaker 4: you know, only five fights, but even that is somewhat

541
00:24:52,400 --> 00:24:53,240
Speaker 4: generous based.

542
00:24:53,080 --> 00:24:55,080
Speaker 3: On what we against guys with like zero and zero

543
00:24:55,320 --> 00:24:57,680
Speaker 3: records too, Like it's against nobody.

544
00:24:58,040 --> 00:25:00,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, he's not you know, five and zero in LFA

545
00:25:00,640 --> 00:25:03,960
Speaker 4: or some like semi major promotion. But anyway, so I

546
00:25:03,960 --> 00:25:05,520
Speaker 4: don't know if this is actually my best bet. I

547
00:25:05,560 --> 00:25:07,119
Speaker 4: think we cover something that I like a little bit

548
00:25:07,119 --> 00:25:09,359
Speaker 4: more in other sections. But I'm looking at Joslyn Edwards

549
00:25:09,359 --> 00:25:10,360
Speaker 4: at minus one twenty.

550
00:25:10,760 --> 00:25:13,400
Speaker 5: She's fighting g on Cam, you know, fairly low level.

551
00:25:13,400 --> 00:25:16,080
Speaker 4: WMMA fighters we talk about, and while I normally want

552
00:25:16,080 --> 00:25:18,360
Speaker 4: to be holding the plus money ticket in these situations,

553
00:25:19,040 --> 00:25:21,280
Speaker 4: I think it's worth laying the minus one twenty on Edwards.

554
00:25:21,320 --> 00:25:22,680
Speaker 5: You know Kimzo's three in a row.

555
00:25:23,600 --> 00:25:26,160
Speaker 4: She had one knockout prior to that, but pretty much

556
00:25:26,400 --> 00:25:29,080
Speaker 4: just losing decisions getting outpointed. And she also had been

557
00:25:29,080 --> 00:25:31,280
Speaker 4: fighting one twenty five before this, so she had missed

558
00:25:31,280 --> 00:25:33,320
Speaker 4: Wade a couple of bouts at one twenty five, but

559
00:25:33,760 --> 00:25:36,679
Speaker 4: she was a one twenty five primarily. Edwards fought one

560
00:25:36,800 --> 00:25:38,720
Speaker 4: forty five in her last fight, and they're meeting here

561
00:25:38,720 --> 00:25:41,280
Speaker 4: at one thirty five, so you know, Edwards is more

562
00:25:41,280 --> 00:25:42,719
Speaker 4: of a one thirty five or so. I don't think

563
00:25:42,760 --> 00:25:45,159
Speaker 4: she's necessarily two weight classes bigger than Cam, but I

564
00:25:45,160 --> 00:25:46,200
Speaker 4: think she's going to be bigger.

565
00:25:46,240 --> 00:25:47,440
Speaker 5: I think she's gonna.

566
00:25:47,240 --> 00:25:49,440
Speaker 4: Have a little bit of power advantage, which makes those

567
00:25:49,480 --> 00:25:52,200
Speaker 4: optics play out pretty nicely, you know for the judges,

568
00:25:52,280 --> 00:25:55,080
Speaker 4: especially with damage being the first criteria. Minus one twenty

569
00:25:55,160 --> 00:25:57,280
Speaker 4: is a pretty good price on that. Like, weight classes

570
00:25:57,320 --> 00:25:59,800
Speaker 4: exist in combat sports for a reason because it's it's

571
00:25:59,800 --> 00:26:01,679
Speaker 4: an advantage when things are closed to be the biggest,

572
00:26:01,680 --> 00:26:03,840
Speaker 4: stronger person, and I think that's Edwards here.

573
00:26:04,400 --> 00:26:05,399
Speaker 1: Excellent stuff, guys.

574
00:26:05,400 --> 00:26:08,920
Speaker 2: As always your UFC two seventy seven betting preview, you

575
00:26:08,960 --> 00:26:11,040
Speaker 2: gotta go to ABC and ESPN for the prelims. And

576
00:26:11,040 --> 00:26:13,639
Speaker 2: then the main card is on pay per view. All

577
00:26:13,680 --> 00:26:17,879
Speaker 2: of the action taking place at American Airline Center in Dallas.

578
00:26:18,400 --> 00:26:20,440
Speaker 1: We come to you every Friday during.

579
00:26:20,400 --> 00:26:23,800
Speaker 2: The UFC season, so we will join you again next week.

580
00:26:24,200 --> 00:26:27,160
Speaker 2: By the way, coming up on the Action Network podcast

581
00:26:27,359 --> 00:26:32,280
Speaker 2: next Monday, Experts Guide to Betting the NFL with Stuckey.

582
00:26:32,440 --> 00:26:34,480
Speaker 1: Be on the lookout for that that is coming soon

583
00:26:35,280 --> 00:26:36,760
Speaker 1: to the Action Network podcast.

584
00:26:37,000 --> 00:26:40,560
Speaker 2: This concludes our UFC betting preview for this week for

585
00:26:40,640 --> 00:26:42,560
Speaker 2: Billy Ward, Shawnzrillo, Brendan Glasheen.

586
00:26:42,640 --> 00:26:44,920
Speaker 1: Good luck everybody, and we will catch you next time.