WEBVTT - More Big Tech Results from Amazon, Snap

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Wait inside from the reporters and

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<v Speaker 1>editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus

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<v Speaker 1>global business, finance and tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week

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<v Speaker 1>Podcast with Carol Messer and Tim Stenebeck from Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 2>I have to say on our planning call, when I

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<v Speaker 2>heard that Bradstone was going to join us on Amazon,

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<v Speaker 2>I was like, Okay, that's all I need, so let's

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<v Speaker 2>get to it. Brad, as you know, he is Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 2>New Senior Executive Editor of Global Technologies, the author of

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<v Speaker 2>two books on Amazon, Jeff Bezos and The Innovation of

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<v Speaker 2>a Global Empire, and of course The Everything Store. Brad

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<v Speaker 2>is there on zoom in San Francisco. Brad, thank you

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<v Speaker 2>so much. Luck going on, and I know you and

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<v Speaker 2>your team have been busy this week Amazon. Where should

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<v Speaker 2>we start? What do you think is the most important

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<v Speaker 2>in this release so far? Yeah?

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<v Speaker 3>I think the question that was lingering over the company

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<v Speaker 3>was whether it had slimmed itself down enough to boost profits,

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<v Speaker 3>whether with all the lafts nearly three thousand this year alone,

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<v Speaker 3>it made any progress and its effort to cut costs

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<v Speaker 3>and match this new era of slowing post pandemic growth

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<v Speaker 3>and Carol, you can see from a twelve percent after

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<v Speaker 3>market boost right now, investors are happy with what they're

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<v Speaker 3>seeing on operating income, net income and the durability of AWS.

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<v Speaker 4>Do you see the good results today feeding through for

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<v Speaker 4>Amazon through the end of the year, particularly as you

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<v Speaker 4>mentioned on the piece about cutting costs through cutting back

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<v Speaker 4>on the workforce. How does Amazon sustain that growth this year?

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I mean we don't know. I mean Amazon's performance

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<v Speaker 3>is so tethered to the macroeconomic climate, and obviously with

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<v Speaker 3>the growth report today, I mean, there are big questions

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<v Speaker 3>about the health of the economy. I think you know

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<v Speaker 3>what we're seeing with Jase's comments about machine learning making

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<v Speaker 3>the AD business better and how the AWS business, they're

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<v Speaker 3>really pitching it as a way to do AI deeper

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<v Speaker 3>and more efficiently. You know, they're trying to set this

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<v Speaker 3>company up not just for the next year, but for

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<v Speaker 3>kind of this next era Silicon Valley and say like

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<v Speaker 3>this is the smart play whatever happens to the economy,

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<v Speaker 3>this is the long term smart play on AI.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, and the thing that we're highlighting on the

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg brad you know, they're talking about that second quarter

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<v Speaker 2>net sales one hundred and twenty seven two hundred and

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<v Speaker 2>thirty three billion. The estimate out there is one thirty.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean it's a sizeable, you know range there, but

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<v Speaker 2>it's upbeat, And so you do wonder about what they

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<v Speaker 2>are seeing about the outlook that gives them at least

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<v Speaker 2>comfort in putting this out here, or how do you

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<v Speaker 2>see it when they put out a forecast like that.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, they always leave their forecasts large enough to

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<v Speaker 3>drive an Amazon delivery truck through, you know, so I

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<v Speaker 3>don't ever put put that much stock in it. But look,

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, this is like a beat across the board.

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<v Speaker 3>Even a physical store sales were a beat online store

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<v Speaker 3>sales or a beat, you know. So I think that

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<v Speaker 3>you know they're they're seeing not just to kind of

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<v Speaker 3>recover from the top line, but all the things they

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<v Speaker 3>have been working on for so many years, shorter delivery times,

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<v Speaker 3>more fulfillment centers closer to customers, that these things are

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<v Speaker 3>finally beginning to make a difference for customers and are

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<v Speaker 3>a little bit more of a differentiator for Amazon fast

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<v Speaker 3>oncoming competitors like Walmart, dot Com, et cetera.

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<v Speaker 4>Talk to me about the AI piece we have in here.

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<v Speaker 4>Some I see six on the word count for AI here.

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<v Speaker 4>Does that feel like enough to you? Does it feel

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<v Speaker 4>like they're leaning into AI in this earnings report?

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<v Speaker 3>I mean every company is right now, and I expect

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<v Speaker 3>it on the media call at the bottom of the

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<v Speaker 3>hour and the analyst call at the top of the hour.

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<v Speaker 3>It's going to be you know, I AI like all

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<v Speaker 3>these calls this week. But I mean the one explicit

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<v Speaker 3>thing that they don't have is a consumer facing you know,

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<v Speaker 3>arge language model that BOT help customers. You know, Alexa

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<v Speaker 3>with a version of that, but it's a little generation old.

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<v Speaker 3>And so they're pitching these these services to developers, like

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<v Speaker 3>one is called Bedrock, where you know, you can come

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<v Speaker 3>and like tailor your own So they're really seeing it

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<v Speaker 3>as a part right now at least of AWS and

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<v Speaker 3>making their business and their AWS customers business more efficient.

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<v Speaker 3>You know, we'll see how much of that is like

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<v Speaker 3>AI washing and how much is a real difference for

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<v Speaker 3>competitors for their customers.

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<v Speaker 2>I am blown away by the numbers, and I'm going

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<v Speaker 2>to go back to physical stores. I mean, I guess,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, because we all think about Amazon, we disorder

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<v Speaker 2>and it just shows up, you know, miraculously on a doorstep.

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<v Speaker 2>Four point now almost five billion dollars in sales. I mean,

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<v Speaker 2>is this something that they continue to invest in and

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<v Speaker 2>build out or is it just again very cautiously, but

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<v Speaker 2>that's some real money.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, if anything, Carol, it's the reverse. I mean,

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<v Speaker 3>they've closed all the physical stores. So the number you're

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<v Speaker 3>seeing here is whole foods, I mean, by and large,

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<v Speaker 3>so you know they've been they've been cutting that business

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<v Speaker 3>a little bit. They've closed some stores. I think I

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<v Speaker 3>think that number shows like maybe some stability, like the

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<v Speaker 3>bookstores they've closed, the four Star stores. Amazon Go has

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<v Speaker 3>been whittled down to like a shadow of its former self,

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<v Speaker 3>so you know they're done cutting, and perhaps that's reflective

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<v Speaker 3>of maybe an overall sort of revival in just the

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<v Speaker 3>supermarket category.

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<v Speaker 4>Is there a anything else that you think Amazon needs

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<v Speaker 4>to do this year to control costs? Or does this

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<v Speaker 4>earnings outlook read to you as a company that can

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<v Speaker 4>happily continue to pour money back into itself.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, we're you know, we're right in the middle

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<v Speaker 3>of the layoffs. I think this week was when they

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<v Speaker 3>started the aw A AWS layoffs, and the head of

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<v Speaker 3>AWS described it as one of the worst days for

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<v Speaker 3>the company. So I think they've probably announced most of

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<v Speaker 3>the cost cutting they're going to do. It's ongoing, it'll

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<v Speaker 3>it'll take place throughout the quarter, and at this at

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<v Speaker 3>this point, you know, and also yesterday, by the way,

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<v Speaker 3>they canceled another product, the Halo wristband, so one of

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<v Speaker 3>their health initiatives. So I think at this point, most

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<v Speaker 3>of the blood's probably on the floor. And you're right

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<v Speaker 3>that from from here on out it's going to be

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<v Speaker 3>a you know, maybe a more careful and curated set

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<v Speaker 3>of bets, you.

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<v Speaker 2>Know, or Ed Ludlow pointing out, and this caught my

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<v Speaker 2>uh caught me too when I was reading through the

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<v Speaker 2>press release. In terms of advertising, their advertising services business

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<v Speaker 2>sales coming in at twenty three percent year over year,

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<v Speaker 2>a thirty five and a half percent help performance relative

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<v Speaker 2>to consensus. You know, we keep worried about anything AD related,

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<v Speaker 2>AD connected. What is it that they are doing just

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<v Speaker 2>so writers it just because they are so huge, there's

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<v Speaker 2>such a big part of everybody's world, and they reach

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<v Speaker 2>so many individuals, if you will, that that makes sense

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<v Speaker 2>that they're really outperforming there.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, what they have said and what they want us

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<v Speaker 3>to believe is that their investments in machine learning help

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<v Speaker 3>match better matchup ads with customers when they're searching in

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<v Speaker 3>the Amazon search box. You know, my view as an

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<v Speaker 3>Amazon customer is that they're simply just flooding the zone.

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<v Speaker 3>I just think that they have thrown open the search

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<v Speaker 3>results to you know, to paid results to the highest bidder.

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<v Speaker 3>And maybe there's a little machine learning there, but it's

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<v Speaker 3>the increasing willingness in the post Jeff Bezos era to

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<v Speaker 3>really self search to the highest bidder that is mainly

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<v Speaker 3>powering that line.

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<v Speaker 2>Brad fast forward for me, which is a bummer for us, then, yes,

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<v Speaker 2>but anyway, but good for them, sorry, Maddie, No, no, no, no, no, it's.

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<v Speaker 4>It's an excellent point, Brad, fast forward to me for

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<v Speaker 4>me to the end of this earning season. Here when

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<v Speaker 4>we look at these Amazon earnings, is this going to

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<v Speaker 4>be the quote unquote bell weather for big tech fueling

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<v Speaker 4>continued gains in the S and P, you know, as

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<v Speaker 4>we wrap up this earning season.

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<v Speaker 3>I think it's consistent, Maddie, with what we've seen from Meta,

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<v Speaker 3>with what we've seen from ALPHAVT. Maybe I haven't been

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<v Speaker 3>paying attention. I'm curious about Snap earnings today. But you

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<v Speaker 3>know that we've been through a brutal period of you know,

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<v Speaker 3>regression in big tech stocks and a lot of cost cutting,

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<v Speaker 3>high unemployment now in Silicon Valley, or at least increasing unemployment,

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<v Speaker 3>and you know, a readjustment. Then maybe this this quarter

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<v Speaker 3>is going to mark kind of the turning point here

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<v Speaker 3>where where as I said, you know, most of the

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<v Speaker 3>pain has been endured, and these companies now with their

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<v Speaker 3>big bets on AI, are beginning to rekindle some They

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<v Speaker 3>were a momentum.

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<v Speaker 2>Brad, you mentioned Snap down twenty two percent in the aftermarket,

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<v Speaker 2>reported its first ever decline in quarterly revenue after making

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<v Speaker 2>some major changes to its advertising tools. So quarter first

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<v Speaker 2>quarter revenue fell seven percent to nine eighty eight point

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<v Speaker 2>six million, So it missed the average at analyst estimate

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<v Speaker 2>of about a billion. So yeah, not not good at all.

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<v Speaker 3>Very different, perhaps not consistent with the overall team.

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<v Speaker 4>Then it makes me wonder what Snap and Pinterest are

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<v Speaker 4>doing differently because they did not perform well, but Amazon,

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<v Speaker 4>Microsoft Meta all performed great about twenty second spread Any

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<v Speaker 4>thoughts on that, Well, it's.

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<v Speaker 3>A good question. There might it's probably the lack of

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<v Speaker 3>kind of topline user growth, I mean meta at Facebook

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<v Speaker 3>and Instagram added user. Snap has struggled with that and

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<v Speaker 3>you know, perhaps a little less global exposure than some

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<v Speaker 3>of their competitors.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, Snap had three hundred and eighty three million users

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<v Speaker 2>daily in the first quarter, in line with analyst estimates. Bradstone,

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<v Speaker 2>your gem I know you're busy, I know your team is.

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<v Speaker 2>We love it when you can join us. Bradstone there

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<v Speaker 2>in San Francisco or San Francisco bureau, joining us via Zoom.

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<v Speaker 2>Jeff Bezos and the Invention of a Global Empire and

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<v Speaker 2>the Everything stort. He knows so much about this company.

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<v Speaker 2>Those are two books he's written. Check it out Amazon's

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<v Speaker 2>app nine percent.

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<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us

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<v Speaker 1>live weekday afternoons from three to six Eastern Listen on

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<v Speaker 1>or watch us live on YouTube.

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<v Speaker 2>He did also mentioned Snap, which is getting hammered. It's

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<v Speaker 2>off its lows in the aftermarket, but still down about

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<v Speaker 2>nineteen percent. Let's get to it because some disappointments, certainly,

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<v Speaker 2>as you can see by the share trade here. Let's

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<v Speaker 2>get to it with Bloomberg News Technology Report to Alex Birinka.

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<v Speaker 2>She's on zoom in our La bureau covers his space. Alex,

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<v Speaker 2>A lot of disappointment. Want to walk us through the

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<v Speaker 2>quarter and why investors are so disappointed here?

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<v Speaker 5>Definitely a lot of disappointment, and I think that disappointment

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<v Speaker 5>really is kind of floating around this top line revenue

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<v Speaker 5>line for the first time ever for this company that's

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<v Speaker 5>always been seen kind of as a growth company. And

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<v Speaker 5>you know, there's a little bit of surprise here too,

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<v Speaker 5>because even though the company had guided for a revenue decrease,

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<v Speaker 5>they guided for a decrease in the first quarter. The

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<v Speaker 5>forecastle're giving for the second quarter is another consecutive quarter

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<v Speaker 5>of sales declines. Some of this is self inflicted too.

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<v Speaker 5>Snap told us three months ago that they're making a

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<v Speaker 5>lot of changes to their advertising tools and that would

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<v Speaker 5>impact revenue for the quarter. They didn't say that it

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<v Speaker 5>was going to kind of drag on for a while,

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<v Speaker 5>which seems like is what's happening here, And when you

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<v Speaker 5>kind of dig into layers deeper on the results I'm

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<v Speaker 5>seeing here, another really important number for investors is users.

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<v Speaker 5>User growth came in right an analyss essment, so there's

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<v Speaker 5>no kind of upside to offset that downside that you're

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<v Speaker 5>seeing on the top line.

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<v Speaker 4>Talk to us about the ad space and specifically Snap

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<v Speaker 4>kind of tweaking the design of its direct response ads.

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<v Speaker 4>You mentioned the impact of that. To what extent are

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<v Speaker 4>these earnings and the market reaction about the ad space

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<v Speaker 4>in particular for Snap.

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<v Speaker 5>For Snap, it's all about that ad space. They are

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<v Speaker 5>a smaller player in the ad world. They have much

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<v Speaker 5>less share than say Alphabet or Meta, but the vast

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<v Speaker 5>majority of their dollars come from advertising revenue, and historically

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<v Speaker 5>Snap has been stronger in something called brand advertising, which

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<v Speaker 5>is kind of telling the big picture story of your brand,

0:11:28.000 --> 0:11:30.600
<v Speaker 5>and less on what you mentioned, which is direct response ads,

0:11:30.800 --> 0:11:32.840
<v Speaker 5>those ads where you see something, you click on it,

0:11:32.840 --> 0:11:35.760
<v Speaker 5>and you buy it right there. In the current economic environment,

0:11:35.880 --> 0:11:39.319
<v Speaker 5>marketers are really preferring those direct response ads because they

0:11:39.320 --> 0:11:42.400
<v Speaker 5>can directly tie return on investment. They can prove out

0:11:42.480 --> 0:11:45.920
<v Speaker 5>saying somebody clicked on this dress video and bought this

0:11:46.040 --> 0:11:48.720
<v Speaker 5>dress versus you know, someone likes the brands better because

0:11:48.760 --> 0:11:51.760
<v Speaker 5>of the brand advertisement. So to have Snap kind of

0:11:51.800 --> 0:11:54.760
<v Speaker 5>playing around with those direct response ads, a lot of

0:11:54.760 --> 0:11:56.920
<v Speaker 5>marketers have backed away, and it's clear that they're not

0:11:56.960 --> 0:11:59.719
<v Speaker 5>spending on the platform now. The company will say they

0:11:59.800 --> 0:12:02.640
<v Speaker 5>have to make these changes, this will improve their business

0:12:02.679 --> 0:12:05.640
<v Speaker 5>in the long run. But it does seem like there

0:12:05.720 --> 0:12:08.200
<v Speaker 5>is quite a bit at least twenty percent downward pressure

0:12:08.240 --> 0:12:11.320
<v Speaker 5>on the stock of Impatients from investors in terms of

0:12:11.360 --> 0:12:12.640
<v Speaker 5>the story that they're telling today.

0:12:12.760 --> 0:12:15.240
<v Speaker 2>All right, So, as you note in your story, and

0:12:15.280 --> 0:12:17.400
<v Speaker 2>I'm looking at this was a stock that back in

0:12:17.440 --> 0:12:20.000
<v Speaker 2>September of twenty twenty one was above eighty three dollars

0:12:20.040 --> 0:12:22.600
<v Speaker 2>a share. We're now just under eleven dollars. Okay, so

0:12:22.960 --> 0:12:27.560
<v Speaker 2>a very different world and certainly in terms of market value.

0:12:27.760 --> 0:12:29.760
<v Speaker 2>You write a new story, though, Alex. You talk about

0:12:29.760 --> 0:12:33.480
<v Speaker 2>how they have also been looking for new streams of revenue,

0:12:33.960 --> 0:12:37.240
<v Speaker 2>and there's things about you know, trying and close virtually

0:12:38.280 --> 0:12:42.280
<v Speaker 2>and other things. Is this something that could ultimately move

0:12:42.360 --> 0:12:45.679
<v Speaker 2>that revenue needle and be a big driver of growth

0:12:45.720 --> 0:12:46.360
<v Speaker 2>going forward?

0:12:47.120 --> 0:12:50.280
<v Speaker 5>It potentially could. I actually chatted to Snap CEO about

0:12:50.280 --> 0:12:54.240
<v Speaker 5>a year a week ago, talking at his product conference,

0:12:54.920 --> 0:12:57.720
<v Speaker 5>you know, saying, hey, Snap looks like a very different company.

0:12:57.720 --> 0:12:57.880
<v Speaker 6>Now.

0:12:57.920 --> 0:13:01.040
<v Speaker 5>They're doing things like selling subscription, and they're doing things

0:13:01.080 --> 0:13:04.800
<v Speaker 5>like selling software to businesses. It's a really interesting moment

0:13:04.840 --> 0:13:06.800
<v Speaker 5>for them. So there's potential there. But these things are

0:13:06.880 --> 0:13:09.319
<v Speaker 5>so early days that they're not upsetting the losses they're

0:13:09.320 --> 0:13:10.439
<v Speaker 5>seeing from the ad business.

0:13:11.480 --> 0:13:14.560
<v Speaker 4>I want to talk about the Meta piece because they

0:13:14.600 --> 0:13:16.640
<v Speaker 4>had a big win yesterday, and they also had a

0:13:16.640 --> 0:13:19.559
<v Speaker 4>big win when it came to their ads and their

0:13:19.600 --> 0:13:22.040
<v Speaker 4>AD revenue, which was critical to watch as it was

0:13:22.080 --> 0:13:25.520
<v Speaker 4>with Snap today. Does the win for Meta yesterday make

0:13:25.840 --> 0:13:30.640
<v Speaker 4>the results today from Snap even worse for investors?

0:13:30.640 --> 0:13:32.960
<v Speaker 5>Sort of? So Meta story is a little bit different

0:13:32.960 --> 0:13:35.440
<v Speaker 5>because of how big they are. They have certainly been

0:13:35.559 --> 0:13:40.040
<v Speaker 5>challenged by kind of the general dismalness of the ad business,

0:13:40.040 --> 0:13:42.760
<v Speaker 5>by marketers pulling back spending, But their business is so

0:13:42.920 --> 0:13:45.720
<v Speaker 5>much bigger, and Snap is so much more of a

0:13:45.840 --> 0:13:49.720
<v Speaker 5>kind of real true growth company that that's all Snap

0:13:49.840 --> 0:13:52.160
<v Speaker 5>kind of has the ability to rely on. Snap has

0:13:52.200 --> 0:13:54.440
<v Speaker 5>also cut costs, They've done a lot of the things

0:13:54.480 --> 0:13:57.640
<v Speaker 5>we've seen from the bigger players. But because folks really

0:13:57.760 --> 0:14:00.120
<v Speaker 5>kind of bet on them for that kind of all

0:14:00.160 --> 0:14:03.760
<v Speaker 5>in growth one hundred percent quarter over quarter in past years,

0:14:04.120 --> 0:14:06.360
<v Speaker 5>to see that number fall makes it a little bit

0:14:06.440 --> 0:14:09.079
<v Speaker 5>challenging With Meta, you know, the big question for them

0:14:09.160 --> 0:14:11.920
<v Speaker 5>has been Okay, you have this big core ad business,

0:14:12.080 --> 0:14:14.079
<v Speaker 5>are you spending enough time there to make sure it's

0:14:14.080 --> 0:14:17.079
<v Speaker 5>still going well in this challenge ad environment? And also

0:14:17.160 --> 0:14:19.720
<v Speaker 5>what else are you spending on? This whole metaverse thing

0:14:19.800 --> 0:14:22.400
<v Speaker 5>is not something that we will realize in the next

0:14:22.440 --> 0:14:25.160
<v Speaker 5>decade or so, And are those dollars actually going to

0:14:25.200 --> 0:14:27.120
<v Speaker 5>things that are going to increase the value of the business.

0:14:27.160 --> 0:14:30.680
<v Speaker 5>So kind of similar kind of wins affecting both of

0:14:30.720 --> 0:14:33.080
<v Speaker 5>those companies, But I think they're just kind of size

0:14:33.480 --> 0:14:35.800
<v Speaker 5>and status in the ad market makes it a little

0:14:35.840 --> 0:14:36.960
<v Speaker 5>bit of a different tale.

0:14:37.160 --> 0:14:39.600
<v Speaker 2>Well, you know, alex, I always think about, you know,

0:14:39.880 --> 0:14:42.960
<v Speaker 2>more broadly, what's going on in social media and just

0:14:43.280 --> 0:14:46.400
<v Speaker 2>all the things, whether it's apps, whether it's streaming services,

0:14:46.440 --> 0:14:49.760
<v Speaker 2>everything competing for our attention. At some point there's got

0:14:49.800 --> 0:14:51.280
<v Speaker 2>to be a little bit of a bust I think

0:14:51.320 --> 0:14:54.640
<v Speaker 2>of this. I caught up with Alexis Ohanian this week, right,

0:14:54.720 --> 0:14:57.360
<v Speaker 2>the co founder of Reddit, you know, and he too said,

0:14:57.400 --> 0:15:00.640
<v Speaker 2>you know, social media, you know, culturally made be going

0:15:00.720 --> 0:15:02.880
<v Speaker 2>to go through a rethink, if you will, how do

0:15:02.960 --> 0:15:05.600
<v Speaker 2>you look at it? And so is it a case

0:15:05.640 --> 0:15:07.200
<v Speaker 2>of some of the smaller guys are going to fall

0:15:07.240 --> 0:15:09.720
<v Speaker 2>to the wayside, or I don't know, how do you

0:15:09.760 --> 0:15:12.720
<v Speaker 2>think of a big picture and then how do investors

0:15:12.760 --> 0:15:14.560
<v Speaker 2>need to think about it? Maybe for some shifts that

0:15:14.640 --> 0:15:15.760
<v Speaker 2>might be to come.

0:15:16.640 --> 0:15:19.200
<v Speaker 5>It's a really interesting moment, and I'll actually use metas

0:15:19.200 --> 0:15:22.160
<v Speaker 5>Earnings to kind of illustrate this. For you know, as

0:15:22.160 --> 0:15:24.640
<v Speaker 5>long as we've had social it's really been about who

0:15:24.680 --> 0:15:27.880
<v Speaker 5>follows you and kind of developing that following and choosing

0:15:27.880 --> 0:15:30.560
<v Speaker 5>the people you follow. When TikTok kind of smashed on

0:15:30.600 --> 0:15:32.680
<v Speaker 5>the scene, they changed the game. They made it about

0:15:32.920 --> 0:15:35.920
<v Speaker 5>what content is best and what content's going to resonate

0:15:36.240 --> 0:15:39.400
<v Speaker 5>with the user's interests instead of with the people that

0:15:39.400 --> 0:15:44.000
<v Speaker 5>that user will follow. Meta YouTube they've all copied kind

0:15:44.040 --> 0:15:47.280
<v Speaker 5>of that TikTok idea, where now your feed is full

0:15:47.360 --> 0:15:49.400
<v Speaker 5>of things they think you might be interested in that's

0:15:49.400 --> 0:15:52.880
<v Speaker 5>selected for you by an algorithm less so your friends

0:15:52.960 --> 0:15:55.920
<v Speaker 5>and family, and so Meta and alphabet have been trying

0:15:55.960 --> 0:15:58.880
<v Speaker 5>to kind of figure out how to match ads with

0:15:58.960 --> 0:16:02.000
<v Speaker 5>those interest groups on this new kind of world where

0:16:02.040 --> 0:16:04.520
<v Speaker 5>a snap has taken a little bit of a different approach.

0:16:04.920 --> 0:16:07.680
<v Speaker 5>They have always had kind of the core feature of

0:16:07.760 --> 0:16:11.040
<v Speaker 5>Snapchat being person to person communication, that kind.

0:16:10.840 --> 0:16:11.800
<v Speaker 3>Of closed loop.

0:16:11.920 --> 0:16:14.480
<v Speaker 5>But I will say it's really interesting. In the last

0:16:14.520 --> 0:16:16.760
<v Speaker 5>few weeks here, Snap has announced that more people can

0:16:16.760 --> 0:16:20.600
<v Speaker 5>now post content publicly, so you're seeing some kind of changes,

0:16:20.640 --> 0:16:22.760
<v Speaker 5>And I think there's this really interesting tension right now

0:16:22.800 --> 0:16:25.920
<v Speaker 5>between folks wanting to stay connected with friends and family

0:16:26.000 --> 0:16:28.200
<v Speaker 5>and a lot of the platforms starting to move away

0:16:28.240 --> 0:16:30.600
<v Speaker 5>from that in favor of showing you things that are

0:16:30.640 --> 0:16:34.320
<v Speaker 5>maybe more entertaining, maybe more in the taking screen time

0:16:34.360 --> 0:16:36.760
<v Speaker 5>from the Netflixes and Hulas of the world. But it's

0:16:36.840 --> 0:16:39.400
<v Speaker 5>less about you know, your your aunts in Texas or

0:16:39.400 --> 0:16:40.840
<v Speaker 5>your friend who's living in New York City.

0:16:40.960 --> 0:16:43.640
<v Speaker 2>Yeah that's really funny. Yeah, no, it's so true, and

0:16:43.760 --> 0:16:45.240
<v Speaker 2>spending a little bit like for the first time, I'm

0:16:45.240 --> 0:16:47.240
<v Speaker 2>finally like checking out TikTok. I know I'm a little

0:16:47.240 --> 0:16:49.120
<v Speaker 2>bit slow to the game, but kind of playing around

0:16:49.160 --> 0:16:51.760
<v Speaker 2>with that more than like sitting down for hours, you know,

0:16:52.320 --> 0:16:53.520
<v Speaker 2>binging on a series.

0:16:53.720 --> 0:16:55.880
<v Speaker 4>Yeah no, I do it sometimes when I don't have

0:16:55.880 --> 0:16:58.320
<v Speaker 4>the energy to pick a show. Alex, I want to

0:16:58.440 --> 0:17:01.080
<v Speaker 4>end on your story about big tech being obsessed with

0:17:01.120 --> 0:17:04.080
<v Speaker 4>cost cutting, except for when it comes to AI, tell

0:17:04.080 --> 0:17:05.000
<v Speaker 4>me what's going on there?

0:17:05.600 --> 0:17:05.879
<v Speaker 1>Yeah.

0:17:06.040 --> 0:17:08.000
<v Speaker 5>I kind of made the argument in our newsletter today

0:17:08.000 --> 0:17:10.439
<v Speaker 5>that AAI is coming for your jobs, just not the

0:17:10.440 --> 0:17:14.720
<v Speaker 5>way you thought. Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, They've all come out

0:17:14.800 --> 0:17:16.119
<v Speaker 5>kind of promising.

0:17:15.640 --> 0:17:17.639
<v Speaker 3>These big cost cuts while.

0:17:17.440 --> 0:17:20.880
<v Speaker 5>Also kind of emphatically reminding investors that they're spending tons

0:17:20.920 --> 0:17:23.800
<v Speaker 5>of money on AI. So where is that money coming from?

0:17:24.320 --> 0:17:26.919
<v Speaker 5>You can look back to the forty thousand positions that

0:17:26.960 --> 0:17:30.239
<v Speaker 5>they've eliminated over the past few months to kind of

0:17:30.400 --> 0:17:34.600
<v Speaker 5>keep those savings and reinvest those funds into artificial intelligence.

0:17:34.640 --> 0:17:37.199
<v Speaker 5>So in this kind of big AI arms race that

0:17:37.240 --> 0:17:39.959
<v Speaker 5>we're in right now, a lot of that's being interestingly

0:17:40.000 --> 0:17:42.879
<v Speaker 5>funded by big tech from the dollars that are not

0:17:42.960 --> 0:17:45.439
<v Speaker 5>going to headcount, that are not going to offices, that

0:17:45.480 --> 0:17:47.399
<v Speaker 5>are only going to kind of the products that are

0:17:47.400 --> 0:17:51.000
<v Speaker 5>getting folks really excited and leaving a lot of former

0:17:51.040 --> 0:17:52.640
<v Speaker 5>employees kind of out to drive.

0:17:53.440 --> 0:17:57.320
<v Speaker 2>Good to be a programmer right now? Really, you know, hey,

0:17:57.720 --> 0:18:00.520
<v Speaker 2>really quickly fifteen seconds, what would you ask Snap on

0:18:00.560 --> 0:18:01.280
<v Speaker 2>the earnings call?

0:18:02.240 --> 0:18:04.439
<v Speaker 5>I want to know at what point revenue turns around

0:18:04.520 --> 0:18:06.840
<v Speaker 5>the changes that they're making, when do those kick in,

0:18:06.920 --> 0:18:09.959
<v Speaker 5>and when do they start luring advertisers to keep that

0:18:10.480 --> 0:18:12.359
<v Speaker 5>top line from continuing to slip?

0:18:12.400 --> 0:18:15.120
<v Speaker 2>All right, great stuff, as oways our Alex Birinka, Bloomberg

0:18:15.119 --> 0:18:19.399
<v Speaker 2>News Technology reporter there in La and check out her newsletter.

0:18:19.560 --> 0:18:22.640
<v Speaker 2>You can find it Bloomberg Tech Daily Newsletter. Just sign

0:18:22.720 --> 0:18:24.560
<v Speaker 2>up at Bloomberg dot com Slash Technology.

0:18:26.359 --> 0:18:29.960
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us

0:18:29.960 --> 0:18:34.000
<v Speaker 1>live weekday afternoons from three to six Easter on Bloomberg Radio,

0:18:34.200 --> 0:18:37.480
<v Speaker 1>the Bloomberg Business app, and YouTube. You can also listen

0:18:37.560 --> 0:18:40.680
<v Speaker 1>live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station.

0:18:41.119 --> 0:18:43.919
<v Speaker 1>Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

0:18:45.720 --> 0:18:48.400
<v Speaker 2>Pressure is building on President Buying to respond after House

0:18:48.440 --> 0:18:50.919
<v Speaker 2>Republicans unified on a set of demands to vert a

0:18:50.920 --> 0:18:54.480
<v Speaker 2>contest a catastrophic US debt default in the coming weeks.

0:18:54.920 --> 0:18:57.720
<v Speaker 2>So there's pressure on the President to really sit down

0:18:57.720 --> 0:19:01.560
<v Speaker 2>with Speaker Kevin McCarthy. Well, Bloomberg watched correspondent Amory Hordern

0:19:01.840 --> 0:19:03.840
<v Speaker 2>did sit down at the Speaker of the House to

0:19:03.840 --> 0:19:05.960
<v Speaker 2>talk about where we are. Check it out, everybody.

0:19:07.119 --> 0:19:09.719
<v Speaker 4>Many people doubted you were going to be able to

0:19:09.800 --> 0:19:12.560
<v Speaker 4>get this bill passed through the floor. You prove them wrong.

0:19:12.600 --> 0:19:15.600
<v Speaker 4>You successfully got it through the floor two hundred and

0:19:15.640 --> 0:19:19.120
<v Speaker 4>seventeen voting in favor of you. Parsident Biden, though, says

0:19:19.160 --> 0:19:21.560
<v Speaker 4>he's only going to meet with you if you separate

0:19:22.119 --> 0:19:26.240
<v Speaker 4>the fiscal spending, cuts the budget with the debt ceiling.

0:19:26.320 --> 0:19:27.720
<v Speaker 4>So what comes next.

0:19:28.160 --> 0:19:30.520
<v Speaker 6>Well, I don't know, because it was eighty five days ago.

0:19:30.560 --> 0:19:33.240
<v Speaker 7>I sat down with the President February first, talking about

0:19:33.280 --> 0:19:36.639
<v Speaker 7>finding a sensible, responsible way to raise the debt limit

0:19:36.960 --> 0:19:40.399
<v Speaker 7>and make us less dependent on China, curve inflation, and

0:19:40.640 --> 0:19:43.560
<v Speaker 7>bring growth to this economy. And that's exactly what we

0:19:43.600 --> 0:19:45.240
<v Speaker 7>just did. The President then said he wasn't going to

0:19:45.280 --> 0:19:47.439
<v Speaker 7>meet with me until we showed him a plan. So

0:19:47.480 --> 0:19:49.640
<v Speaker 7>then I showed him a plan, and then we passed it.

0:19:50.080 --> 0:19:52.679
<v Speaker 7>You know, the way government works is the House passes

0:19:52.720 --> 0:19:54.679
<v Speaker 7>the bill, the Senate passes a bill, and then you

0:19:54.760 --> 0:19:57.600
<v Speaker 7>conference together and the President can sign decide whether he

0:19:57.680 --> 0:20:00.480
<v Speaker 7>signs it or not. The challenge here is the Senate's nothing.

0:20:00.920 --> 0:20:02.040
<v Speaker 6>But I shouldn't be rude.

0:20:02.119 --> 0:20:05.600
<v Speaker 7>They did name March Maine maple syrup, but they did

0:20:05.600 --> 0:20:07.520
<v Speaker 7>get that done, but they haven't done anything on the

0:20:07.560 --> 0:20:10.120
<v Speaker 7>debt sitting, and the President has ignored this problem. He's

0:20:10.200 --> 0:20:14.680
<v Speaker 7>actually putting the economy of America in jeopardy by not

0:20:14.720 --> 0:20:18.560
<v Speaker 7>doing anything because only the House has raised the debt limit.

0:20:18.640 --> 0:20:21.080
<v Speaker 7>Passed the bill to do that and at the same.

0:20:20.880 --> 0:20:22.639
<v Speaker 6>Time grow the economy.

0:20:22.680 --> 0:20:25.200
<v Speaker 7>And we did it with ideas that he has voted.

0:20:24.880 --> 0:20:28.160
<v Speaker 6>For work requirements. He voted for that as a Senator.

0:20:28.160 --> 0:20:31.280
<v Speaker 7>But more importantly, just a couple months ago in Wisconsin

0:20:31.320 --> 0:20:33.520
<v Speaker 7>it passed with eighty two percent of the vote to

0:20:33.600 --> 0:20:35.879
<v Speaker 7>limit our growth in the future so government doesn't get

0:20:35.920 --> 0:20:38.760
<v Speaker 7>out of control. Well, that's an idea from Joe Manchin.

0:20:39.280 --> 0:20:42.840
<v Speaker 7>We help the supply chain, We repel eighty seven thousand

0:20:42.840 --> 0:20:46.800
<v Speaker 7>IRS agents, We make America energy independent. We cut the

0:20:46.840 --> 0:20:49.920
<v Speaker 7>red tape so we could build things again in America.

0:20:50.000 --> 0:20:51.320
<v Speaker 6>I don't think that's radical.

0:20:51.359 --> 0:20:52.880
<v Speaker 7>And the words that are coming out of the White

0:20:52.880 --> 0:20:55.680
<v Speaker 7>House that we are going to melt children's bones, we're

0:20:55.680 --> 0:20:58.639
<v Speaker 7>going to create asthma, there's nothing in the build that

0:20:58.760 --> 0:21:02.560
<v Speaker 7>does that. It actually text veterans protects our military, makes

0:21:02.560 --> 0:21:06.439
<v Speaker 7>his a stronger case for the future.

0:21:07.040 --> 0:21:09.240
<v Speaker 2>All right, That, of course, was the US Speaker of

0:21:09.280 --> 0:21:11.840
<v Speaker 2>the House, Kevin McCarthy catching up with our Bloomberg Washington

0:21:11.840 --> 0:21:14.560
<v Speaker 2>correspondent and Marie Horden. If you want to hear more

0:21:14.560 --> 0:21:16.720
<v Speaker 2>of the interview, just get to Bloomberg dot Com or

0:21:16.800 --> 0:21:21.240
<v Speaker 2>check it out on the Bloomberg Terminal. This is Bloomberg Radio.

0:21:28.480 --> 0:21:31.960
<v Speaker 2>Well things can maybe get for the over one hundred

0:21:31.960 --> 0:21:35.960
<v Speaker 2>million obesion overweight individuals in the United States. Uh, there

0:21:36.000 --> 0:21:38.280
<v Speaker 2>is a story in the new issue Bloomberg BusinessWeek. It's

0:21:38.280 --> 0:21:41.200
<v Speaker 2>out on newsstands, online at Bloomberg dot com, slash BusinessWeek,

0:21:41.240 --> 0:21:44.080
<v Speaker 2>and on the Bloomberg Terminal. And many of these individuals

0:21:44.160 --> 0:21:46.639
<v Speaker 2>would love to lose a bunch of weight to improve

0:21:46.680 --> 0:21:49.240
<v Speaker 2>their health situation. And you know what, there's a bunch

0:21:49.280 --> 0:21:51.600
<v Speaker 2>of drugs out there that can do that. The big

0:21:51.600 --> 0:21:54.280
<v Speaker 2>problem though, is the cost and having to use the

0:21:54.320 --> 0:21:56.520
<v Speaker 2>drug for the rest of your life. All right, let's

0:21:56.520 --> 0:21:58.760
<v Speaker 2>get into it with our Bloomberg News healthcare reporting team

0:21:58.800 --> 0:22:01.719
<v Speaker 2>who wrote the story of Emma Court and Bob Langreth.

0:22:02.119 --> 0:22:04.359
<v Speaker 2>They are both here in our Interactive Broker studio. So

0:22:04.359 --> 0:22:06.840
<v Speaker 2>excited to have both of you with us. Emma, why

0:22:06.840 --> 0:22:08.359
<v Speaker 2>don't you kick it off with us and tell us

0:22:08.359 --> 0:22:11.119
<v Speaker 2>about this class of drugs which they were mentioned at

0:22:11.160 --> 0:22:14.080
<v Speaker 2>the Oscars. Comedians talk about them. I think Elon Musk

0:22:14.119 --> 0:22:16.520
<v Speaker 2>has talked about them. Tell us what we're talking about.

0:22:17.000 --> 0:22:18.879
<v Speaker 8>Yeah, Well, first of all, thank you so much for

0:22:18.920 --> 0:22:21.360
<v Speaker 8>having us on. We're really excited about the story. It's

0:22:21.400 --> 0:22:26.560
<v Speaker 8>the cover story this week, so we're thrilled. These new

0:22:26.680 --> 0:22:30.520
<v Speaker 8>drugs are called effectively glp ones. They're named after a

0:22:30.640 --> 0:22:34.560
<v Speaker 8>hormone they mimic that essentially helps people feel fuller, they

0:22:34.560 --> 0:22:37.400
<v Speaker 8>have less appetite, they eat less, and they lose weight.

0:22:38.160 --> 0:22:41.080
<v Speaker 8>What's interesting about these drugs is they're not all that new.

0:22:41.240 --> 0:22:44.240
<v Speaker 8>This class has been around for diabetes for many years,

0:22:44.720 --> 0:22:48.720
<v Speaker 8>but more recently pharma companies have been developing them specifically

0:22:48.760 --> 0:22:51.720
<v Speaker 8>for obesity. There's a couple of different names for them.

0:22:51.760 --> 0:22:54.960
<v Speaker 8>People are very familiar by now with ozembic, which is

0:22:55.040 --> 0:22:57.920
<v Speaker 8>a diabetes drug. That's the one that Jimmy Kimmel joked

0:22:57.920 --> 0:23:01.520
<v Speaker 8>about at the oscars. But they're are also drugs called.

0:23:01.359 --> 0:23:04.440
<v Speaker 2>If everybody laughed or whether it was like deadpan, because

0:23:04.480 --> 0:23:08.440
<v Speaker 2>it was like hitting too.

0:23:08.520 --> 0:23:12.480
<v Speaker 8>Go ahead, they're well. There are a number of perhaps

0:23:12.560 --> 0:23:16.040
<v Speaker 8>less well known drugs, including a new one called Munjaro

0:23:16.119 --> 0:23:18.920
<v Speaker 8>that hasn't been formally approved for obesity but likely will

0:23:18.920 --> 0:23:21.679
<v Speaker 8>in the next year. There's also a drug called Wigovi,

0:23:21.840 --> 0:23:24.920
<v Speaker 8>which was the first sort of highly effective obesity drug

0:23:25.040 --> 0:23:28.439
<v Speaker 8>approved in the US. And what's really interesting about them is,

0:23:28.880 --> 0:23:32.480
<v Speaker 8>you know, these are drugs that are helping people lose

0:23:32.600 --> 0:23:35.640
<v Speaker 8>up to fifty pounds in some cases. So they're way

0:23:35.680 --> 0:23:38.040
<v Speaker 8>more effective than anything that had been available for weight

0:23:38.040 --> 0:23:41.199
<v Speaker 8>loss before, and it's getting a lot of doctors and

0:23:41.240 --> 0:23:42.399
<v Speaker 8>patients excited about it.

0:23:42.680 --> 0:23:45.280
<v Speaker 4>So Bob, come in here, because we've all, i think,

0:23:45.359 --> 0:23:48.080
<v Speaker 4>heard in our lifetimes about a variety of different diet

0:23:48.160 --> 0:23:51.520
<v Speaker 4>pills and ways to lose weight. Certainly as a woman

0:23:51.560 --> 0:23:53.640
<v Speaker 4>growing up in the nineties heard about plenty of them.

0:23:53.960 --> 0:23:56.800
<v Speaker 4>How is ozemba weegov, how is it different? And what

0:23:56.840 --> 0:23:59.600
<v Speaker 4>are the risks and the some of the benefits I'm.

0:23:59.640 --> 0:24:01.960
<v Speaker 9>Talking to Yeah, one of the really interesting things for

0:24:02.080 --> 0:24:04.399
<v Speaker 9>me as I've been covering drug industry for decades and

0:24:05.200 --> 0:24:07.320
<v Speaker 9>you know, a b City weight loss that was kind

0:24:07.320 --> 0:24:10.359
<v Speaker 9>of always like a graveyard for drugs. Drugnacity had been

0:24:10.400 --> 0:24:12.320
<v Speaker 9>trying for a long time to come up with drugs.

0:24:12.320 --> 0:24:14.160
<v Speaker 9>There was the kind of there are a whole bunch

0:24:14.240 --> 0:24:16.880
<v Speaker 9>of safety v calls. One of the most famous ones

0:24:17.000 --> 0:24:19.560
<v Speaker 9>or infamous ones was fen fen back in the late nineties,

0:24:19.560 --> 0:24:23.160
<v Speaker 9>where one of the components caused heart problems. Uh so

0:24:24.000 --> 0:24:26.440
<v Speaker 9>BC drugs for a long time at a bad reputation,

0:24:26.680 --> 0:24:29.040
<v Speaker 9>and these ones, you know, sort of came a little

0:24:29.040 --> 0:24:30.960
<v Speaker 9>bit almost out of left field. As MS said, they

0:24:30.960 --> 0:24:34.439
<v Speaker 9>were developed for diabetes, and drug companies increasingly started you know,

0:24:34.520 --> 0:24:37.399
<v Speaker 9>noting noticing the weight loss effects they were seeing. And

0:24:37.440 --> 0:24:41.919
<v Speaker 9>as I started testing the drugs uh in people that

0:24:42.040 --> 0:24:46.520
<v Speaker 9>didn't have diabetes there that were uh suffered from a

0:24:46.520 --> 0:24:49.919
<v Speaker 9>b CD but didn't have diabetes, they started seeing even larger.

0:24:49.640 --> 0:24:50.800
<v Speaker 6>Amounts of weight loss.

0:24:51.320 --> 0:24:55.080
<v Speaker 9>Uh So, the safety track record and diabetes is pretty good.

0:24:55.119 --> 0:24:56.960
<v Speaker 9>Like all drugs are not without risks, you know, but

0:24:57.040 --> 0:24:59.880
<v Speaker 9>they do have a number of side effects, including non

0:25:00.480 --> 0:25:03.320
<v Speaker 9>in vomiting and diarrhea potentially, so do you have a bunch

0:25:03.359 --> 0:25:05.399
<v Speaker 9>of gi side effects and you actually have to tightrate

0:25:05.440 --> 0:25:07.680
<v Speaker 9>them up slowly. These are injectable drugs. It's not a

0:25:07.720 --> 0:25:09.880
<v Speaker 9>simple pill. You have to inject them, most.

0:25:09.720 --> 0:25:10.520
<v Speaker 6>Of them weekly.

0:25:10.880 --> 0:25:11.240
<v Speaker 1>Most of that.

0:25:11.400 --> 0:25:14.200
<v Speaker 9>Yeah, the new ones are weekly. And what's happened is

0:25:14.280 --> 0:25:17.560
<v Speaker 9>as they've gone to sort of more potent, long acting ones,

0:25:17.560 --> 0:25:21.160
<v Speaker 9>they've seen the anti obesity effect increase, and that's when

0:25:21.160 --> 0:25:23.920
<v Speaker 9>they've started to get some of these dramatic weight loss.

0:25:24.040 --> 0:25:27.360
<v Speaker 9>And the Eli Lilomanjaro drug, which is like the newest one.

0:25:27.800 --> 0:25:30.640
<v Speaker 9>It's only approved for diabetes, but Eli Lilly is very

0:25:30.680 --> 0:25:33.360
<v Speaker 9>soon going to seek approval for obesity. That's the one

0:25:33.359 --> 0:25:35.680
<v Speaker 9>that's showing some of the most dramatic weight loss effects

0:25:35.720 --> 0:25:38.720
<v Speaker 9>so far, and they just had another positive study out today.

0:25:39.040 --> 0:25:40.200
<v Speaker 2>Why is it so expensive?

0:25:41.400 --> 0:25:42.960
<v Speaker 8>It's the billion dollar question.

0:25:43.160 --> 0:25:45.399
<v Speaker 2>I feel like we asked this so often about drugs,

0:25:45.440 --> 0:25:47.520
<v Speaker 2>and I know we do, but why is it especially

0:25:47.560 --> 0:25:49.840
<v Speaker 2>it's been around for a while, right, I'm just curious,

0:25:50.040 --> 0:25:51.160
<v Speaker 2>why is it so expensive?

0:25:51.760 --> 0:25:53.800
<v Speaker 8>So some of these drugs are newer, and they are

0:25:53.840 --> 0:25:56.360
<v Speaker 8>the most expensive ones, so they they are new, they

0:25:56.359 --> 0:25:58.399
<v Speaker 8>can't say they've been around for many years.

0:25:58.880 --> 0:25:59.080
<v Speaker 6>You know.

0:25:59.240 --> 0:26:02.040
<v Speaker 8>It's a difficult question, and we certainly asked the companies

0:26:02.080 --> 0:26:04.679
<v Speaker 8>about it, and we didn't get a super straight answer

0:26:04.720 --> 0:26:06.720
<v Speaker 8>on it. I would say, I'm curious what Bob thinks

0:26:06.760 --> 0:26:07.280
<v Speaker 8>about those.

0:26:08.040 --> 0:26:10.960
<v Speaker 9>Well, I've been asking drug companies about their pricing.

0:26:10.680 --> 0:26:11.800
<v Speaker 6>Forever, druggies, forever.

0:26:12.000 --> 0:26:14.240
<v Speaker 9>You know that that is one question when you ask,

0:26:14.400 --> 0:26:18.520
<v Speaker 9>it's very very difficult to get. Like my senses, they

0:26:18.520 --> 0:26:20.560
<v Speaker 9>don't really tell you the real answer, like what happened

0:26:20.760 --> 0:26:22.879
<v Speaker 9>in the back room when they decided.

0:26:22.920 --> 0:26:24.879
<v Speaker 2>I have a brother who was in pharmacuticals for over

0:26:24.960 --> 0:26:26.720
<v Speaker 2>twenty years, and he was always like, listen, we do

0:26:26.760 --> 0:26:28.199
<v Speaker 2>so much R and D, and I'm like, did I

0:26:28.200 --> 0:26:30.760
<v Speaker 2>ever come on? You also make a ton of money

0:26:30.800 --> 0:26:31.280
<v Speaker 2>on stuff.

0:26:31.320 --> 0:26:33.639
<v Speaker 9>So but basically in the US, you know, it's a

0:26:33.680 --> 0:26:36.080
<v Speaker 9>free market. Drug companies and price their drugs at kind

0:26:36.119 --> 0:26:38.800
<v Speaker 9>of whatever price they want. And these when they came

0:26:38.840 --> 0:26:42.320
<v Speaker 9>on the market as diabetes drugs, they were priced, you know,

0:26:42.440 --> 0:26:46.320
<v Speaker 9>fairly high. And they and some of the pricing. There's

0:26:46.320 --> 0:26:48.480
<v Speaker 9>one that will Govi drug, which is a higher dose

0:26:48.600 --> 0:26:51.119
<v Speaker 9>version of a zempic that Nova Nordi sells her obesity.

0:26:51.160 --> 0:26:55.280
<v Speaker 9>They priced out it even higher price than nozempic. It's

0:26:55.400 --> 0:26:59.480
<v Speaker 9>exact different doses of the exact same you know, chemical compound,

0:27:00.080 --> 0:27:01.400
<v Speaker 9>but one is a higher price.

0:27:01.480 --> 0:27:03.480
<v Speaker 6>The abcity one is a higher price.

0:27:03.600 --> 0:27:06.399
<v Speaker 8>The second interesting aspect of this is like when you

0:27:06.480 --> 0:27:08.520
<v Speaker 8>look at the sheer number of people who would be

0:27:08.600 --> 0:27:11.000
<v Speaker 8>eligible for these drugs in the US, it's more than

0:27:11.000 --> 0:27:13.560
<v Speaker 8>one hundred million people, right, So it's like it's massive.

0:27:13.680 --> 0:27:16.280
<v Speaker 8>Why are the prices so high given that the market

0:27:16.320 --> 0:27:19.280
<v Speaker 8>opportunity is huge? And we actually talked to one of

0:27:19.280 --> 0:27:22.200
<v Speaker 8>the sort of foundational scientists in this field. His name

0:27:22.280 --> 0:27:25.080
<v Speaker 8>is Dan Drucker, and he was one of the guys

0:27:25.080 --> 0:27:28.440
<v Speaker 8>who helped discover these hormones in the body many many

0:27:28.480 --> 0:27:31.080
<v Speaker 8>years ago. And he said, you know, he's asked companies

0:27:31.119 --> 0:27:32.840
<v Speaker 8>over the years, why don't you just do, you know,

0:27:32.960 --> 0:27:35.119
<v Speaker 8>be the McDonald's in the space, Which is kind of

0:27:35.119 --> 0:27:38.199
<v Speaker 8>an ironic comparison if you think about it, But you know,

0:27:38.240 --> 0:27:41.679
<v Speaker 8>why don't you come out with really cheaper versions of

0:27:41.720 --> 0:27:43.640
<v Speaker 8>these drugs and lots of people take them and you'll

0:27:43.680 --> 0:27:44.800
<v Speaker 8>still make a bunch of money.

0:27:45.119 --> 0:27:47.440
<v Speaker 2>And you're talking about one in three how many was

0:27:47.480 --> 0:27:48.480
<v Speaker 2>our population.

0:27:49.480 --> 0:27:51.639
<v Speaker 6>Of adults in the US of obesity.

0:27:51.760 --> 0:27:54.360
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, so what's interesting too, And I feel like there's

0:27:54.359 --> 0:27:58.560
<v Speaker 2>a bigger, broader conversation when it comes to healthcare, right,

0:27:58.760 --> 0:28:01.480
<v Speaker 2>I mean being overweight so in COVID like that could

0:28:01.560 --> 0:28:04.320
<v Speaker 2>make you more susceptible to not having a great outcome.

0:28:04.640 --> 0:28:08.440
<v Speaker 2>I mean, being overweight for most people causes all these

0:28:08.440 --> 0:28:10.760
<v Speaker 2>other problems. We know, it's a big reason why there's

0:28:10.800 --> 0:28:14.439
<v Speaker 2>so much diabetes. Where is the medical community, where's the

0:28:14.480 --> 0:28:17.600
<v Speaker 2>insurance community. I'm thinking about if we can get people

0:28:17.640 --> 0:28:20.800
<v Speaker 2>to be not so overweight that it's just better for

0:28:20.840 --> 0:28:24.080
<v Speaker 2>their health, come, their their healthcare, their outcomes and also

0:28:24.119 --> 0:28:25.080
<v Speaker 2>their health care costs.

0:28:25.200 --> 0:28:28.439
<v Speaker 8>Well. One really important and interesting aspect of this is

0:28:28.520 --> 0:28:31.119
<v Speaker 8>we often blame weight for a lot of things in

0:28:31.160 --> 0:28:34.600
<v Speaker 8>our society, and it's interesting to look at this idea

0:28:34.600 --> 0:28:36.919
<v Speaker 8>of BMI and realize it's kind of imprecise.

0:28:37.000 --> 0:28:37.359
<v Speaker 3>Right, it was.

0:28:37.320 --> 0:28:40.440
<v Speaker 8>Supposed to be kind of a population level measure, and

0:28:40.480 --> 0:28:43.160
<v Speaker 8>instead it's been applied to individuals, So like, if someone

0:28:43.200 --> 0:28:46.040
<v Speaker 8>has a certain weight, regardless of what their health looks

0:28:46.080 --> 0:28:49.520
<v Speaker 8>like in other aspects, they are obese just because of

0:28:49.560 --> 0:28:50.240
<v Speaker 8>their BMI.

0:28:50.440 --> 0:28:50.600
<v Speaker 3>Right.

0:28:50.640 --> 0:28:52.680
<v Speaker 8>If you think about that, it's kind of an interesting aspect,

0:28:52.800 --> 0:28:55.600
<v Speaker 8>Like you could be totally healthy, have no diabetes, have

0:28:55.680 --> 0:28:58.880
<v Speaker 8>no high cholesterol, whatever, and you're still ill by some

0:28:59.000 --> 0:29:01.720
<v Speaker 8>of these kind of modern standard So it is kind

0:29:01.720 --> 0:29:05.160
<v Speaker 8>of a nuanced, complicated topic. While higher weights have been

0:29:05.200 --> 0:29:08.560
<v Speaker 8>really highly associated with lots of different diseases, it's important

0:29:08.600 --> 0:29:10.480
<v Speaker 8>to note that there are a lot of shades of

0:29:10.480 --> 0:29:14.160
<v Speaker 8>gray here. Another interesting aspect of this is like, how.

0:29:14.040 --> 0:29:16.200
<v Speaker 2>Does that mean not as many people would really kind

0:29:16.240 --> 0:29:18.240
<v Speaker 2>of be eligible for these.

0:29:18.360 --> 0:29:20.480
<v Speaker 8>Well, that's the kind million, right, So if you think

0:29:20.520 --> 0:29:24.480
<v Speaker 8>about it, maybe not everyone who qualifies as overweight or

0:29:24.520 --> 0:29:27.600
<v Speaker 8>obese is necessarily going to be the best candidate for

0:29:27.640 --> 0:29:30.680
<v Speaker 8>these drugs. There's a big kind of murky middle of

0:29:30.760 --> 0:29:33.480
<v Speaker 8>people who where it's not totally clear how big a

0:29:33.640 --> 0:29:34.960
<v Speaker 8>danger than they are we impose it.

0:29:35.320 --> 0:29:38.080
<v Speaker 9>This is a really important question here. So like the

0:29:38.200 --> 0:29:43.440
<v Speaker 9>risks of of you know, suffering from obesity, you know,

0:29:44.680 --> 0:29:46.520
<v Speaker 9>as opposed to someone's normal way. A lot of that

0:29:46.560 --> 0:29:49.680
<v Speaker 9>comes from epidemiological studies. You know, what's not been proven

0:29:49.800 --> 0:29:52.960
<v Speaker 9>over the long terms. If you take the weight off

0:29:53.320 --> 0:29:56.360
<v Speaker 9>with one of these drugs, you know, do you eliminate

0:29:56.440 --> 0:29:59.160
<v Speaker 9>all these like actual like risks like the risk of

0:29:59.280 --> 0:30:02.160
<v Speaker 9>heart disease and strokes and other like concrete you know,

0:30:02.320 --> 0:30:05.120
<v Speaker 9>does it makenal downsides? They haven't actually proven that in

0:30:05.160 --> 0:30:08.440
<v Speaker 9>trials right now. It's not necessarily the case that you know,

0:30:08.480 --> 0:30:12.360
<v Speaker 9>you'll get all that benefit because these are epidemiology studies

0:30:12.360 --> 0:30:14.800
<v Speaker 9>and your communit you're comparing risk factors and there might

0:30:14.840 --> 0:30:16.920
<v Speaker 9>be other things that are different, you know, when they

0:30:17.040 --> 0:30:20.080
<v Speaker 9>when they do these complicated comparisons. So the companies, that's

0:30:20.120 --> 0:30:22.440
<v Speaker 9>the that's what I'm sure that's what they say. This

0:30:22.560 --> 0:30:25.080
<v Speaker 9>is not proven. There's only really proven to take off

0:30:25.080 --> 0:30:27.160
<v Speaker 9>a lot of way. You haven't proven that it prevents

0:30:27.160 --> 0:30:29.400
<v Speaker 9>a heart attack or a stroke five years from now,

0:30:29.520 --> 0:30:29.960
<v Speaker 9>and you have.

0:30:29.920 --> 0:30:33.360
<v Speaker 4>To take it forever, seemingly to prevent the heart disease.

0:30:33.440 --> 0:30:35.880
<v Speaker 8>So what the That's what the pharma companies are saying,

0:30:35.880 --> 0:30:38.080
<v Speaker 8>that's what the doctors are saying. There have been studies

0:30:38.080 --> 0:30:40.680
<v Speaker 8>of this new drug, WIGOVI that show when people quit

0:30:40.720 --> 0:30:43.600
<v Speaker 8>the drug after a year the way it comes back

0:30:43.680 --> 0:30:47.680
<v Speaker 8>for most people. So that is a big issue about

0:30:48.280 --> 0:30:51.960
<v Speaker 8>such an expensive drug like this is possibly a lifelong thing,

0:30:52.400 --> 0:30:54.320
<v Speaker 8>and it does raise questions about, well, what is the

0:30:54.320 --> 0:30:56.640
<v Speaker 8>side effect profile here? We're not talking about taking something

0:30:56.640 --> 0:30:58.280
<v Speaker 8>for a few months or years.

0:30:57.880 --> 0:31:01.760
<v Speaker 4>Forever potentially does does it insurance tend to cover it?

0:31:01.840 --> 0:31:05.280
<v Speaker 4>If you are at that BMI, then what's the spread?

0:31:05.600 --> 0:31:08.080
<v Speaker 9>It's all over the place right now. We do a

0:31:08.120 --> 0:31:10.520
<v Speaker 9>lot of reporting this. It's all over the place right now,

0:31:10.560 --> 0:31:12.760
<v Speaker 9>and you know, whether you have access to one of

0:31:12.760 --> 0:31:15.080
<v Speaker 9>these drugs may kind of just depend on the luck

0:31:15.080 --> 0:31:17.400
<v Speaker 9>of the drawer and what your particular insurance company you

0:31:17.480 --> 0:31:21.560
<v Speaker 9>have to you end up at. But like basically three

0:31:21.680 --> 0:31:25.080
<v Speaker 9>quarters of state we surveyed all fifty states state medicaid programs,

0:31:25.120 --> 0:31:29.000
<v Speaker 9>three quarters the states have very little coverage for obesity drugs,

0:31:29.040 --> 0:31:31.880
<v Speaker 9>and you're roughly approx. Give or take a few three

0:31:31.960 --> 0:31:36.600
<v Speaker 9>quarters of private insurance generally don't cover obesity drugs either.

0:31:36.680 --> 0:31:39.560
<v Speaker 9>Now the coverage we've found signs that the coverage is

0:31:39.600 --> 0:31:42.800
<v Speaker 9>starting to increase. For example, in Medicaid, eight different states

0:31:42.880 --> 0:31:45.320
<v Speaker 9>told us they're considering it. But this is like, this

0:31:45.400 --> 0:31:46.880
<v Speaker 9>is like the big battle that's going to be going

0:31:46.880 --> 0:31:49.560
<v Speaker 9>on the next year between the drug companies and the

0:31:49.600 --> 0:31:53.440
<v Speaker 9>doctors that favor more coverage and insurance companies.

0:31:53.520 --> 0:31:54.840
<v Speaker 6>That's like, that's like the big battle.

0:31:55.040 --> 0:31:57.440
<v Speaker 8>It was amazing to see how much coverage ranged in

0:31:57.480 --> 0:32:00.560
<v Speaker 8>this fifty state survey of Medicaid plans, which met kitas

0:32:00.560 --> 0:32:03.719
<v Speaker 8>covers low income folks for health insurance. I mean, there

0:32:03.800 --> 0:32:06.000
<v Speaker 8>was one state that literally told us we will pay

0:32:06.040 --> 0:32:09.800
<v Speaker 8>for you know, some obesity drugs for people under the

0:32:09.840 --> 0:32:12.720
<v Speaker 8>age of twenty one, for young people, but not adults.

0:32:13.160 --> 0:32:16.160
<v Speaker 8>We're like, what, Like, there's so much.

0:32:16.320 --> 0:32:18.200
<v Speaker 2>That, I mean, what would make it much more clear?

0:32:18.240 --> 0:32:20.200
<v Speaker 2>I just got about thirty seconds. Is it some study

0:32:20.200 --> 0:32:21.920
<v Speaker 2>that needs to be like, what is it? That would

0:32:22.160 --> 0:32:24.280
<v Speaker 2>be like health insurans would be like, yeah, we got

0:32:24.320 --> 0:32:25.240
<v Speaker 2>to be in on this or not.

0:32:25.360 --> 0:32:27.800
<v Speaker 9>The big studies, The most important studies that are coming

0:32:27.960 --> 0:32:30.360
<v Speaker 9>is that both Eli Lilly and Nova Noordis, which they

0:32:30.360 --> 0:32:33.720
<v Speaker 9>are the two makers. They're studying their drugs in people

0:32:33.720 --> 0:32:35.960
<v Speaker 9>with a BC to show they can prevent heart attacks

0:32:35.960 --> 0:32:38.080
<v Speaker 9>and strokes. And you know, if they do that, if

0:32:38.120 --> 0:32:40.320
<v Speaker 9>those studies succeed, it's going to be much much harder

0:32:40.360 --> 0:32:41.720
<v Speaker 9>for insurance to deny coverage.

0:32:41.800 --> 0:32:43.840
<v Speaker 8>Yeah, and that's going to be a big, big thing

0:32:43.880 --> 0:32:45.800
<v Speaker 8>that's going to come in the next couple of months.

0:32:45.960 --> 0:32:48.520
<v Speaker 8>Heart disease is the leading killer of Americans. So this

0:32:48.560 --> 0:32:50.040
<v Speaker 8>is something with really high stakes.

0:32:50.120 --> 0:32:53.040
<v Speaker 2>All right, great story, guys. It is the cover of

0:32:53.320 --> 0:32:56.200
<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg Business Week. As we said, it is out on newsstands.

0:32:56.240 --> 0:32:58.600
<v Speaker 2>It's already on the Bloomberg terminal and online at Bloomberg

0:32:58.640 --> 0:33:02.160
<v Speaker 2>dot com Slash BusinessWeek, The Court and Bob Langreth, both

0:33:02.280 --> 0:33:04.560
<v Speaker 2>healthcare reporters here at Bloomberg News, joining us here in

0:33:04.600 --> 0:33:06.960
<v Speaker 2>our interactive broker story. Be sure to check it out.

0:33:07.000 --> 0:33:09.040
<v Speaker 2>It's also going to be in our weekend show on

0:33:09.160 --> 0:33:15.400
<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg Radio. This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm brother Marco,

0:33:17.320 --> 0:33:20.040
<v Speaker 2>a journal How about you let me drive?

0:33:20.560 --> 0:33:25.640
<v Speaker 1>No, no, no, no, honey, please, how do the riding gravel?

0:33:26.200 --> 0:33:27.000
<v Speaker 6>Let's mate, I.

0:33:27.000 --> 0:33:28.880
<v Speaker 2>Want to try it.

0:33:29.840 --> 0:33:30.760
<v Speaker 10>It's a good question.

0:33:31.480 --> 0:33:37.160
<v Speaker 2>Try This is the Drive to the Clothes dot Com

0:33:37.200 --> 0:33:39.600
<v Speaker 2>tm me think we'll buy around to other on I'm

0:33:39.720 --> 0:33:43.360
<v Speaker 2>on Bloomberg Radio. All right, everybody, we have just under

0:33:43.360 --> 0:33:45.920
<v Speaker 2>eighteen minutes left in today's trading session, getting ready to

0:33:45.920 --> 0:33:48.600
<v Speaker 2>wrap up the Thursday trade. We've got big earnings coming,

0:33:48.720 --> 0:33:52.040
<v Speaker 2>as Charlie mentioned, Amazon, Intel, a few others after the

0:33:52.040 --> 0:33:54.120
<v Speaker 2>Clothes holding out to gain sell on the equity side

0:33:54.120 --> 0:33:56.160
<v Speaker 2>of things. So let's get to it. Our Drive to

0:33:56.200 --> 0:33:59.320
<v Speaker 2>the Close guest on this Thursday is Shanil Ramsey, Senior

0:33:59.360 --> 0:34:02.440
<v Speaker 2>investment Manager. You're at Picta Asset Management here in our

0:34:02.480 --> 0:34:06.000
<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio with Maddie and myself. Nice to

0:34:06.080 --> 0:34:06.600
<v Speaker 2>have you here.

0:34:06.760 --> 0:34:08.840
<v Speaker 10>How are you Yeah, very good, Thanks for having me.

0:34:08.960 --> 0:34:09.879
<v Speaker 10>Nice to be in New York?

0:34:10.080 --> 0:34:12.600
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, oh good. Where are you typically based in London?

0:34:12.760 --> 0:34:16.280
<v Speaker 2>In London? All right, so tell me mood difference between

0:34:16.280 --> 0:34:17.080
<v Speaker 2>London and here.

0:34:17.800 --> 0:34:21.240
<v Speaker 10>Well, firstly, the weather is not as good in London,

0:34:21.320 --> 0:34:23.640
<v Speaker 10>let me tell you that much. But now it's like

0:34:23.719 --> 0:34:25.359
<v Speaker 10>it's lovely to be back in New York. Haven't been

0:34:25.400 --> 0:34:27.680
<v Speaker 10>back for several years and the buzz is great.

0:34:27.960 --> 0:34:30.759
<v Speaker 2>It does feel like the energy when you're in London, though,

0:34:31.000 --> 0:34:34.040
<v Speaker 2>is what is the conversation you think most that you

0:34:34.080 --> 0:34:36.200
<v Speaker 2>guys talk about at work versus like when you come

0:34:36.200 --> 0:34:38.000
<v Speaker 2>over to the US and you're talking to different clients.

0:34:38.080 --> 0:34:39.840
<v Speaker 2>Is it a little bit different? Is it the same stuff?

0:34:40.160 --> 0:34:43.040
<v Speaker 10>Yeah? In the US it's typically quite US focused. You know,

0:34:43.080 --> 0:34:46.000
<v Speaker 10>we have a much global, much more global view in London,

0:34:46.120 --> 0:34:49.160
<v Speaker 10>and it's always the US versus the rest. Right Where

0:34:49.400 --> 0:34:52.439
<v Speaker 10>when are we going to see performance come through from

0:34:52.480 --> 0:34:55.360
<v Speaker 10>the rest of the world. And we do see that

0:34:55.520 --> 0:34:57.600
<v Speaker 10>coming to the for this year and in some ways

0:34:58.160 --> 0:35:01.279
<v Speaker 10>with European innses doing quite well this year, uh and

0:35:01.640 --> 0:35:05.240
<v Speaker 10>the reopening of China really starting to drive some investment decisions.

0:35:05.239 --> 0:35:08.200
<v Speaker 10>So coming coming to YES this week, I think this

0:35:08.280 --> 0:35:10.400
<v Speaker 10>is what people have been asking about.

0:35:10.560 --> 0:35:13.759
<v Speaker 4>Are you monitoring every single potential data point that could

0:35:13.760 --> 0:35:16.960
<v Speaker 4>impact the fed's moves as much as we are here, you'd.

0:35:16.719 --> 0:35:19.600
<v Speaker 10>Be surprised that in Europe we care a lot about

0:35:19.600 --> 0:35:22.680
<v Speaker 10>that too, right, So we we are, you know, watching

0:35:23.120 --> 0:35:27.360
<v Speaker 10>each and every statement also, but we try and trying

0:35:27.360 --> 0:35:30.480
<v Speaker 10>to have that more applicable to what's going on elsewhere.

0:35:30.520 --> 0:35:32.520
<v Speaker 10>What is the ECB, what is the BOE, what is

0:35:32.520 --> 0:35:34.280
<v Speaker 10>the bo J what is the Chinese?

0:35:34.640 --> 0:35:35.280
<v Speaker 6>Uh people?

0:35:35.520 --> 0:35:38.319
<v Speaker 10>Yeah, so how how are they responding to what the

0:35:38.360 --> 0:35:40.680
<v Speaker 10>FED is doing? But you know, the FED is still

0:35:41.000 --> 0:35:43.239
<v Speaker 10>the big the big guy in the room, and we

0:35:43.320 --> 0:35:46.279
<v Speaker 10>really need to know what Jay, Paul and co. Are

0:35:46.320 --> 0:35:47.720
<v Speaker 10>going to do well.

0:35:47.800 --> 0:35:50.800
<v Speaker 2>So, having said that, you do to take a global perspective,

0:35:50.960 --> 0:35:53.880
<v Speaker 2>and lucky for us, you've shared something else with our producers.

0:35:53.920 --> 0:35:57.040
<v Speaker 2>So we know that you do like non US equities

0:35:57.440 --> 0:35:59.840
<v Speaker 2>more than you like US equities from what I understand,

0:36:00.080 --> 0:36:00.760
<v Speaker 2>make that case.

0:36:01.080 --> 0:36:03.000
<v Speaker 10>So at the moment, we know that the valuations in

0:36:03.000 --> 0:36:04.960
<v Speaker 10>the US are quite high with this thing s and

0:36:05.000 --> 0:36:07.520
<v Speaker 10>people have one hundred is about eighteen times. When we

0:36:07.600 --> 0:36:10.720
<v Speaker 10>look elsewhere around the world, we think looking at much

0:36:10.800 --> 0:36:14.080
<v Speaker 10>lower valuations twelve times in Europe, ten times in the UK,

0:36:14.280 --> 0:36:17.160
<v Speaker 10>much lower in parts of Asia. So we can say,

0:36:17.160 --> 0:36:19.880
<v Speaker 10>for on a valuation case that this is interesting. But

0:36:20.000 --> 0:36:22.000
<v Speaker 10>we know that the rest of the world's always been

0:36:22.400 --> 0:36:26.080
<v Speaker 10>cheaper in general. So why now? Why do we think now?

0:36:26.160 --> 0:36:30.000
<v Speaker 10>So firstly, we think there's a desynchronization in the global economy.

0:36:30.280 --> 0:36:33.440
<v Speaker 10>We see the US economy is slowing. We saw today's

0:36:33.440 --> 0:36:38.239
<v Speaker 10>GDP number a bit slower, bit more inflation, And when

0:36:38.280 --> 0:36:40.359
<v Speaker 10>we look at the rest of the world. Having had

0:36:40.400 --> 0:36:43.680
<v Speaker 10>the big energy scare that we saw at the end

0:36:43.680 --> 0:36:45.719
<v Speaker 10>of the last year in Europe and thinking that we

0:36:45.719 --> 0:36:47.759
<v Speaker 10>were going to have a big recession in Europe first

0:36:47.840 --> 0:36:50.560
<v Speaker 10>quarter this year, that didn't materialize, and we're getting a

0:36:50.600 --> 0:36:54.480
<v Speaker 10>cyclical upswing in Europe. But that's also aided by the

0:36:54.520 --> 0:36:58.239
<v Speaker 10>fact that China reopened, right, So the China reopening has

0:36:58.360 --> 0:37:03.000
<v Speaker 10>helped look at non US growth being a little bit

0:37:03.040 --> 0:37:06.759
<v Speaker 10>better than US growth, and that's turning into some positives

0:37:06.760 --> 0:37:09.240
<v Speaker 10>for earnings, not just in China but elsewhere.

0:37:09.320 --> 0:37:12.960
<v Speaker 2>There's Europe. In Europe's a pretty big area region. What

0:37:13.080 --> 0:37:16.600
<v Speaker 2>specifically are there certain markets, are there certain types of industries,

0:37:16.640 --> 0:37:17.440
<v Speaker 2>certain companies.

0:37:17.640 --> 0:37:22.120
<v Speaker 10>Absolutely so in Europe, we really like the consumer sectors,

0:37:22.160 --> 0:37:25.600
<v Speaker 10>the consumer cyclicals. But really in a world where we

0:37:25.680 --> 0:37:28.480
<v Speaker 10>know that there's this inflation pressure, we think the high

0:37:28.560 --> 0:37:31.360
<v Speaker 10>end consumer is doing the best right. The affluent consumer

0:37:32.640 --> 0:37:34.799
<v Speaker 10>has the ability to spend more. So when we look

0:37:34.800 --> 0:37:37.520
<v Speaker 10>at those premium brands, when we look at those luxury companies,

0:37:37.760 --> 0:37:42.920
<v Speaker 10>they continue to grow their revenue base. They are interesting

0:37:42.960 --> 0:37:46.080
<v Speaker 10>companies in the sense that so like you'r lvmators, Absolutely

0:37:46.560 --> 0:37:52.440
<v Speaker 10>LVMH is the the LVMH, for example, encompasses all those

0:37:52.520 --> 0:37:55.080
<v Speaker 10>luxury brands, and we think there are many of them

0:37:55.360 --> 0:37:57.880
<v Speaker 10>in Europe, and that's what Europe does best. You know,

0:37:57.920 --> 0:38:00.000
<v Speaker 10>we know that those are some of the best companies

0:38:00.080 --> 0:38:02.520
<v Speaker 10>in Europe. Those those luxury.

0:38:02.160 --> 0:38:05.560
<v Speaker 2>Cots are US luxury brands. We love you, even if

0:38:07.880 --> 0:38:09.880
<v Speaker 2>I'm just kidding. Yeah, no, I mean it's but I

0:38:09.880 --> 0:38:11.520
<v Speaker 2>know what you're saying. And we've talked about that. We've

0:38:11.520 --> 0:38:14.239
<v Speaker 2>done a lot of reporting that as these results come in,

0:38:14.600 --> 0:38:17.239
<v Speaker 2>the luxury names have really been out performing, and we

0:38:17.320 --> 0:38:20.000
<v Speaker 2>are talking about the China reopening as one of the reasons.

0:38:20.000 --> 0:38:23.000
<v Speaker 2>But US shoppers are buying too, certainly US high end shoppers.

0:38:23.520 --> 0:38:26.160
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, why do you think that US high end shoppers

0:38:26.480 --> 0:38:31.719
<v Speaker 4>are more susceptible to headwinds than European high end shoppers.

0:38:32.000 --> 0:38:34.480
<v Speaker 10>I think the high the US high end, the consumer

0:38:34.560 --> 0:38:37.400
<v Speaker 10>is also going to be quite resilient. We've seen the

0:38:37.520 --> 0:38:41.600
<v Speaker 10>numbers today on the consumption being still quite strong, right,

0:38:41.680 --> 0:38:44.400
<v Speaker 10>so we know that the consumer in the US has

0:38:44.840 --> 0:38:45.279
<v Speaker 10>been good.

0:38:45.320 --> 0:38:48.360
<v Speaker 2>And those are January numbers, as are Mike McKee reminded us,

0:38:48.400 --> 0:38:50.040
<v Speaker 2>and we'll get March I think tomorrow. So it was

0:38:50.120 --> 0:38:53.280
<v Speaker 2>kind of before the banking, you know, kind of meltdown

0:38:53.280 --> 0:38:55.399
<v Speaker 2>of a few names, So it'll be interesting to see

0:38:55.440 --> 0:38:56.600
<v Speaker 2>if it continues to hold up.

0:38:56.719 --> 0:38:58.920
<v Speaker 10>But even if we look at travel, for example, travel

0:38:58.960 --> 0:39:02.640
<v Speaker 10>in leisure, when we look at the hotel hotel chain numbers,

0:39:02.640 --> 0:39:04.880
<v Speaker 10>when we look at the airline numbers, these numbers have

0:39:04.920 --> 0:39:08.160
<v Speaker 10>been pretty good. So we know that the consumers are

0:39:08.200 --> 0:39:11.640
<v Speaker 10>spending on what they hold deer and right now what

0:39:11.640 --> 0:39:14.200
<v Speaker 10>they hold dear is some of those luxury brands and

0:39:14.239 --> 0:39:17.520
<v Speaker 10>also the travel and leisure that they that they care

0:39:17.520 --> 0:39:18.040
<v Speaker 10>about most.

0:39:18.160 --> 0:39:19.880
<v Speaker 2>So you know, how much would you suggest for an

0:39:19.880 --> 0:39:23.160
<v Speaker 2>investor to have of their portfolio with non US exposure

0:39:23.160 --> 0:39:24.240
<v Speaker 2>at this point at.

0:39:24.080 --> 0:39:27.880
<v Speaker 10>The moment, just in that luxury consumer discretion era, the

0:39:27.920 --> 0:39:30.280
<v Speaker 10>portfolio that we built for clients has about five percent

0:39:30.800 --> 0:39:33.840
<v Speaker 10>in those areas, and we think that that's just because

0:39:34.160 --> 0:39:37.600
<v Speaker 10>the consumer is the driver right now in the global economy.

0:39:37.880 --> 0:39:41.520
<v Speaker 10>We do think, however, that that will slow over time.

0:39:42.000 --> 0:39:45.640
<v Speaker 10>And what we see in that desynchronization that I mentioned

0:39:45.840 --> 0:39:48.840
<v Speaker 10>is also desynchronization in the sectors of the economy that

0:39:48.880 --> 0:39:51.439
<v Speaker 10>are working. And one of those sectors that we think

0:39:51.600 --> 0:39:54.880
<v Speaker 10>could have some better performance in the second half of

0:39:54.880 --> 0:39:58.440
<v Speaker 10>the year now is the more manufacturing or industrial sector,

0:39:58.920 --> 0:40:01.600
<v Speaker 10>and we are seeing some of those numbers.

0:40:01.239 --> 0:40:03.959
<v Speaker 2>Come out for over Europe or more broadly.

0:40:03.719 --> 0:40:06.480
<v Speaker 10>More more broadly, more globally, and I think the European

0:40:06.680 --> 0:40:09.520
<v Speaker 10>story in terms of the industrials, we see earning revisions

0:40:09.560 --> 0:40:12.040
<v Speaker 10>pick up, and that's partly due to some of the

0:40:12.040 --> 0:40:15.680
<v Speaker 10>fiscal stimus that we see around some of the environmental

0:40:15.719 --> 0:40:18.360
<v Speaker 10>spend that's going on. Look at the either the IRA

0:40:18.640 --> 0:40:22.400
<v Speaker 10>or what this similar policies in Europe. These are spending

0:40:22.560 --> 0:40:25.319
<v Speaker 10>that governments are doing that are going to benefit some

0:40:25.400 --> 0:40:28.720
<v Speaker 10>of these industrial companies and their auder books are already

0:40:29.200 --> 0:40:29.640
<v Speaker 10>showing that.

0:40:30.120 --> 0:40:32.719
<v Speaker 4>But a lot of consumer discretionary companies in the US

0:40:32.840 --> 0:40:37.279
<v Speaker 4>are having amazing earnings. I'm thinking about McDonald's, PEPSI, so maybe.

0:40:37.000 --> 0:40:40.239
<v Speaker 2>Not just the high drum their global names. Yeah, absolutely,

0:40:40.239 --> 0:40:41.960
<v Speaker 2>So we got about thirty seconds left.

0:40:42.560 --> 0:40:47.120
<v Speaker 10>When we look at those those global US companies, they

0:40:47.160 --> 0:40:50.040
<v Speaker 10>have been having good numbers. And for example, I think

0:40:50.440 --> 0:40:53.160
<v Speaker 10>Clad said some of their coffee shops in China were

0:40:53.239 --> 0:40:56.640
<v Speaker 10>rarely showing positive earnings, so you know, you know it's

0:40:56.680 --> 0:40:59.400
<v Speaker 10>open when people are going out to coffee shops, So

0:40:59.560 --> 0:41:01.759
<v Speaker 10>you know, these are some of the data that we

0:41:01.800 --> 0:41:04.759
<v Speaker 10>look at so it's not just European companies, right, you

0:41:04.800 --> 0:41:08.320
<v Speaker 10>are right, it is also American companies. But we think

0:41:08.560 --> 0:41:11.239
<v Speaker 10>the consumer generally is the place for you, all.

0:41:11.200 --> 0:41:13.560
<v Speaker 2>Right, that we're certain to see that and as you said,

0:41:13.640 --> 0:41:16.600
<v Speaker 2>higher end in particular. Nil, thank you so much, really

0:41:16.600 --> 0:41:19.720
<v Speaker 2>appreciate it. Shamiel Ramchi, He's senior investment manager at Picta

0:41:19.800 --> 0:41:22.480
<v Speaker 2>Asset Management, joining us here in our Bloomberg in Directive

0:41:22.480 --> 0:41:23.200
<v Speaker 2>Brokers studio.

0:41:24.520 --> 0:41:28.360
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0:41:28.600 --> 0:41:30.279
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