Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Business Wait inside from the reporters and
Speaker 1: editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus
Speaker 1: global business, finance and tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week
Speaker 1: Podcast with Carol Messer and Tim Stenebeck from Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 2: I have to say on our planning call, when I
Speaker 2: heard that Bradstone was going to join us on Amazon,
Speaker 2: I was like, Okay, that's all I need, so let's
Speaker 2: get to it. Brad, as you know, he is Bloomberg
Speaker 2: New Senior Executive Editor of Global Technologies, the author of
Speaker 2: two books on Amazon, Jeff Bezos and The Innovation of
Speaker 2: a Global Empire, and of course The Everything Store. Brad
Speaker 2: is there on zoom in San Francisco. Brad, thank you
Speaker 2: so much. Luck going on, and I know you and
Speaker 2: your team have been busy this week Amazon. Where should
Speaker 2: we start? What do you think is the most important
Speaker 2: in this release so far? Yeah?
Speaker 3: I think the question that was lingering over the company
Speaker 3: was whether it had slimmed itself down enough to boost profits,
Speaker 3: whether with all the lafts nearly three thousand this year alone,
Speaker 3: it made any progress and its effort to cut costs
Speaker 3: and match this new era of slowing post pandemic growth
Speaker 3: and Carol, you can see from a twelve percent after
Speaker 3: market boost right now, investors are happy with what they're
Speaker 3: seeing on operating income, net income and the durability of AWS.
Speaker 4: Do you see the good results today feeding through for
Speaker 4: Amazon through the end of the year, particularly as you
Speaker 4: mentioned on the piece about cutting costs through cutting back
Speaker 4: on the workforce. How does Amazon sustain that growth this year?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean we don't know. I mean Amazon's performance
Speaker 3: is so tethered to the macroeconomic climate, and obviously with
Speaker 3: the growth report today, I mean, there are big questions
Speaker 3: about the health of the economy. I think you know
Speaker 3: what we're seeing with Jase's comments about machine learning making
Speaker 3: the AD business better and how the AWS business, they're
Speaker 3: really pitching it as a way to do AI deeper
Speaker 3: and more efficiently. You know, they're trying to set this
Speaker 3: company up not just for the next year, but for
Speaker 3: kind of this next era Silicon Valley and say like
Speaker 3: this is the smart play whatever happens to the economy,
Speaker 3: this is the long term smart play on AI.
Speaker 2: I mean, and the thing that we're highlighting on the
Speaker 2: Bloomberg brad you know, they're talking about that second quarter
Speaker 2: net sales one hundred and twenty seven two hundred and
Speaker 2: thirty three billion. The estimate out there is one thirty.
Speaker 2: I mean it's a sizeable, you know range there, but
Speaker 2: it's upbeat, And so you do wonder about what they
Speaker 2: are seeing about the outlook that gives them at least
Speaker 2: comfort in putting this out here, or how do you
Speaker 2: see it when they put out a forecast like that.
Speaker 3: I mean, they always leave their forecasts large enough to
Speaker 3: drive an Amazon delivery truck through, you know, so I
Speaker 3: don't ever put put that much stock in it. But look,
Speaker 3: I mean, this is like a beat across the board.
Speaker 3: Even a physical store sales were a beat online store
Speaker 3: sales or a beat, you know. So I think that
Speaker 3: you know they're they're seeing not just to kind of
Speaker 3: recover from the top line, but all the things they
Speaker 3: have been working on for so many years, shorter delivery times,
Speaker 3: more fulfillment centers closer to customers, that these things are
Speaker 3: finally beginning to make a difference for customers and are
Speaker 3: a little bit more of a differentiator for Amazon fast
Speaker 3: oncoming competitors like Walmart, dot Com, et cetera.
Speaker 4: Talk to me about the AI piece we have in here.
Speaker 4: Some I see six on the word count for AI here.
Speaker 4: Does that feel like enough to you? Does it feel
Speaker 4: like they're leaning into AI in this earnings report?
Speaker 3: I mean every company is right now, and I expect
Speaker 3: it on the media call at the bottom of the
Speaker 3: hour and the analyst call at the top of the hour.
Speaker 3: It's going to be you know, I AI like all
Speaker 3: these calls this week. But I mean the one explicit
Speaker 3: thing that they don't have is a consumer facing you know,
Speaker 3: arge language model that BOT help customers. You know, Alexa
Speaker 3: with a version of that, but it's a little generation old.
Speaker 3: And so they're pitching these these services to developers, like
Speaker 3: one is called Bedrock, where you know, you can come
Speaker 3: and like tailor your own So they're really seeing it
Speaker 3: as a part right now at least of AWS and
Speaker 3: making their business and their AWS customers business more efficient.
Speaker 3: You know, we'll see how much of that is like
Speaker 3: AI washing and how much is a real difference for
Speaker 3: competitors for their customers.
Speaker 2: I am blown away by the numbers, and I'm going
Speaker 2: to go back to physical stores. I mean, I guess,
Speaker 2: you know, because we all think about Amazon, we disorder
Speaker 2: and it just shows up, you know, miraculously on a doorstep.
Speaker 2: Four point now almost five billion dollars in sales. I mean,
Speaker 2: is this something that they continue to invest in and
Speaker 2: build out or is it just again very cautiously, but
Speaker 2: that's some real money.
Speaker 3: I mean, if anything, Carol, it's the reverse. I mean,
Speaker 3: they've closed all the physical stores. So the number you're
Speaker 3: seeing here is whole foods, I mean, by and large,
Speaker 3: so you know they've been they've been cutting that business
Speaker 3: a little bit. They've closed some stores. I think I
Speaker 3: think that number shows like maybe some stability, like the
Speaker 3: bookstores they've closed, the four Star stores. Amazon Go has
Speaker 3: been whittled down to like a shadow of its former self,
Speaker 3: so you know they're done cutting, and perhaps that's reflective
Speaker 3: of maybe an overall sort of revival in just the
Speaker 3: supermarket category.
Speaker 4: Is there a anything else that you think Amazon needs
Speaker 4: to do this year to control costs? Or does this
Speaker 4: earnings outlook read to you as a company that can
Speaker 4: happily continue to pour money back into itself.
Speaker 3: I mean, we're you know, we're right in the middle
Speaker 3: of the layoffs. I think this week was when they
Speaker 3: started the aw A AWS layoffs, and the head of
Speaker 3: AWS described it as one of the worst days for
Speaker 3: the company. So I think they've probably announced most of
Speaker 3: the cost cutting they're going to do. It's ongoing, it'll
Speaker 3: it'll take place throughout the quarter, and at this at
Speaker 3: this point, you know, and also yesterday, by the way,
Speaker 3: they canceled another product, the Halo wristband, so one of
Speaker 3: their health initiatives. So I think at this point, most
Speaker 3: of the blood's probably on the floor. And you're right
Speaker 3: that from from here on out it's going to be
Speaker 3: a you know, maybe a more careful and curated set
Speaker 3: of bets, you.
Speaker 2: Know, or Ed Ludlow pointing out, and this caught my
Speaker 2: uh caught me too when I was reading through the
Speaker 2: press release. In terms of advertising, their advertising services business
Speaker 2: sales coming in at twenty three percent year over year,
Speaker 2: a thirty five and a half percent help performance relative
Speaker 2: to consensus. You know, we keep worried about anything AD related,
Speaker 2: AD connected. What is it that they are doing just
Speaker 2: so writers it just because they are so huge, there's
Speaker 2: such a big part of everybody's world, and they reach
Speaker 2: so many individuals, if you will, that that makes sense
Speaker 2: that they're really outperforming there.
Speaker 3: Well, what they have said and what they want us
Speaker 3: to believe is that their investments in machine learning help
Speaker 3: match better matchup ads with customers when they're searching in
Speaker 3: the Amazon search box. You know, my view as an
Speaker 3: Amazon customer is that they're simply just flooding the zone.
Speaker 3: I just think that they have thrown open the search
Speaker 3: results to you know, to paid results to the highest bidder.
Speaker 3: And maybe there's a little machine learning there, but it's
Speaker 3: the increasing willingness in the post Jeff Bezos era to
Speaker 3: really self search to the highest bidder that is mainly
Speaker 3: powering that line.
Speaker 2: Brad fast forward for me, which is a bummer for us, then, yes,
Speaker 2: but anyway, but good for them, sorry, Maddie, No, no, no, no, no, it's.
Speaker 4: It's an excellent point, Brad, fast forward to me for
Speaker 4: me to the end of this earning season. Here when
Speaker 4: we look at these Amazon earnings, is this going to
Speaker 4: be the quote unquote bell weather for big tech fueling
Speaker 4: continued gains in the S and P, you know, as
Speaker 4: we wrap up this earning season.
Speaker 3: I think it's consistent, Maddie, with what we've seen from Meta,
Speaker 3: with what we've seen from ALPHAVT. Maybe I haven't been
Speaker 3: paying attention. I'm curious about Snap earnings today. But you
Speaker 3: know that we've been through a brutal period of you know,
Speaker 3: regression in big tech stocks and a lot of cost cutting,
Speaker 3: high unemployment now in Silicon Valley, or at least increasing unemployment,
Speaker 3: and you know, a readjustment. Then maybe this this quarter
Speaker 3: is going to mark kind of the turning point here
Speaker 3: where where as I said, you know, most of the
Speaker 3: pain has been endured, and these companies now with their
Speaker 3: big bets on AI, are beginning to rekindle some They
Speaker 3: were a momentum.
Speaker 2: Brad, you mentioned Snap down twenty two percent in the aftermarket,
Speaker 2: reported its first ever decline in quarterly revenue after making
Speaker 2: some major changes to its advertising tools. So quarter first
Speaker 2: quarter revenue fell seven percent to nine eighty eight point
Speaker 2: six million, So it missed the average at analyst estimate
Speaker 2: of about a billion. So yeah, not not good at all.
Speaker 3: Very different, perhaps not consistent with the overall team.
Speaker 4: Then it makes me wonder what Snap and Pinterest are
Speaker 4: doing differently because they did not perform well, but Amazon,
Speaker 4: Microsoft Meta all performed great about twenty second spread Any
Speaker 4: thoughts on that, Well, it's.
Speaker 3: A good question. There might it's probably the lack of
Speaker 3: kind of topline user growth, I mean meta at Facebook
Speaker 3: and Instagram added user. Snap has struggled with that and
Speaker 3: you know, perhaps a little less global exposure than some
Speaker 3: of their competitors.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Snap had three hundred and eighty three million users
Speaker 2: daily in the first quarter, in line with analyst estimates. Bradstone,
Speaker 2: your gem I know you're busy, I know your team is.
Speaker 2: We love it when you can join us. Bradstone there
Speaker 2: in San Francisco or San Francisco bureau, joining us via Zoom.
Speaker 2: Jeff Bezos and the Invention of a Global Empire and
Speaker 2: the Everything stort. He knows so much about this company.
Speaker 2: Those are two books he's written. Check it out Amazon's
Speaker 2: app nine percent.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us
Speaker 1: live weekday afternoons from three to six Eastern Listen on
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Speaker 2: He did also mentioned Snap, which is getting hammered. It's
Speaker 2: off its lows in the aftermarket, but still down about
Speaker 2: nineteen percent. Let's get to it because some disappointments, certainly,
Speaker 2: as you can see by the share trade here. Let's
Speaker 2: get to it with Bloomberg News Technology Report to Alex Birinka.
Speaker 2: She's on zoom in our La bureau covers his space. Alex,
Speaker 2: A lot of disappointment. Want to walk us through the
Speaker 2: quarter and why investors are so disappointed here?
Speaker 5: Definitely a lot of disappointment, and I think that disappointment
Speaker 5: really is kind of floating around this top line revenue
Speaker 5: line for the first time ever for this company that's
Speaker 5: always been seen kind of as a growth company. And
Speaker 5: you know, there's a little bit of surprise here too,
Speaker 5: because even though the company had guided for a revenue decrease,
Speaker 5: they guided for a decrease in the first quarter. The
Speaker 5: forecastle're giving for the second quarter is another consecutive quarter
Speaker 5: of sales declines. Some of this is self inflicted too.
Speaker 5: Snap told us three months ago that they're making a
Speaker 5: lot of changes to their advertising tools and that would
Speaker 5: impact revenue for the quarter. They didn't say that it
Speaker 5: was going to kind of drag on for a while,
Speaker 5: which seems like is what's happening here, And when you
Speaker 5: kind of dig into layers deeper on the results I'm
Speaker 5: seeing here, another really important number for investors is users.
Speaker 5: User growth came in right an analyss essment, so there's
Speaker 5: no kind of upside to offset that downside that you're
Speaker 5: seeing on the top line.
Speaker 4: Talk to us about the ad space and specifically Snap
Speaker 4: kind of tweaking the design of its direct response ads.
Speaker 4: You mentioned the impact of that. To what extent are
Speaker 4: these earnings and the market reaction about the ad space
Speaker 4: in particular for Snap.
Speaker 5: For Snap, it's all about that ad space. They are
Speaker 5: a smaller player in the ad world. They have much
Speaker 5: less share than say Alphabet or Meta, but the vast
Speaker 5: majority of their dollars come from advertising revenue, and historically
Speaker 5: Snap has been stronger in something called brand advertising, which
Speaker 5: is kind of telling the big picture story of your brand,
Speaker 5: and less on what you mentioned, which is direct response ads,
Speaker 5: those ads where you see something, you click on it,
Speaker 5: and you buy it right there. In the current economic environment,
Speaker 5: marketers are really preferring those direct response ads because they
Speaker 5: can directly tie return on investment. They can prove out
Speaker 5: saying somebody clicked on this dress video and bought this
Speaker 5: dress versus you know, someone likes the brands better because
Speaker 5: of the brand advertisement. So to have Snap kind of
Speaker 5: playing around with those direct response ads, a lot of
Speaker 5: marketers have backed away, and it's clear that they're not
Speaker 5: spending on the platform now. The company will say they
Speaker 5: have to make these changes, this will improve their business
Speaker 5: in the long run. But it does seem like there
Speaker 5: is quite a bit at least twenty percent downward pressure
Speaker 5: on the stock of Impatients from investors in terms of
Speaker 5: the story that they're telling today.
Speaker 2: All right, So, as you note in your story, and
Speaker 2: I'm looking at this was a stock that back in
Speaker 2: September of twenty twenty one was above eighty three dollars
Speaker 2: a share. We're now just under eleven dollars. Okay, so
Speaker 2: a very different world and certainly in terms of market value.
Speaker 2: You write a new story, though, Alex. You talk about
Speaker 2: how they have also been looking for new streams of revenue,
Speaker 2: and there's things about you know, trying and close virtually
Speaker 2: and other things. Is this something that could ultimately move
Speaker 2: that revenue needle and be a big driver of growth
Speaker 2: going forward?
Speaker 5: It potentially could. I actually chatted to Snap CEO about
Speaker 5: a year a week ago, talking at his product conference,
Speaker 5: you know, saying, hey, Snap looks like a very different company.
Speaker 6: Now.
Speaker 5: They're doing things like selling subscription, and they're doing things
Speaker 5: like selling software to businesses. It's a really interesting moment
Speaker 5: for them. So there's potential there. But these things are
Speaker 5: so early days that they're not upsetting the losses they're
Speaker 5: seeing from the ad business.
Speaker 4: I want to talk about the Meta piece because they
Speaker 4: had a big win yesterday, and they also had a
Speaker 4: big win when it came to their ads and their
Speaker 4: AD revenue, which was critical to watch as it was
Speaker 4: with Snap today. Does the win for Meta yesterday make
Speaker 4: the results today from Snap even worse for investors?
Speaker 5: Sort of? So Meta story is a little bit different
Speaker 5: because of how big they are. They have certainly been
Speaker 5: challenged by kind of the general dismalness of the ad business,
Speaker 5: by marketers pulling back spending, But their business is so
Speaker 5: much bigger, and Snap is so much more of a
Speaker 5: kind of real true growth company that that's all Snap
Speaker 5: kind of has the ability to rely on. Snap has
Speaker 5: also cut costs, They've done a lot of the things
Speaker 5: we've seen from the bigger players. But because folks really
Speaker 5: kind of bet on them for that kind of all
Speaker 5: in growth one hundred percent quarter over quarter in past years,
Speaker 5: to see that number fall makes it a little bit
Speaker 5: challenging With Meta, you know, the big question for them
Speaker 5: has been Okay, you have this big core ad business,
Speaker 5: are you spending enough time there to make sure it's
Speaker 5: still going well in this challenge ad environment? And also
Speaker 5: what else are you spending on? This whole metaverse thing
Speaker 5: is not something that we will realize in the next
Speaker 5: decade or so, And are those dollars actually going to
Speaker 5: things that are going to increase the value of the business.
Speaker 5: So kind of similar kind of wins affecting both of
Speaker 5: those companies, But I think they're just kind of size
Speaker 5: and status in the ad market makes it a little
Speaker 5: bit of a different tale.
Speaker 2: Well, you know, alex, I always think about, you know,
Speaker 2: more broadly, what's going on in social media and just
Speaker 2: all the things, whether it's apps, whether it's streaming services,
Speaker 2: everything competing for our attention. At some point there's got
Speaker 2: to be a little bit of a bust I think
Speaker 2: of this. I caught up with Alexis Ohanian this week, right,
Speaker 2: the co founder of Reddit, you know, and he too said,
Speaker 2: you know, social media, you know, culturally made be going
Speaker 2: to go through a rethink, if you will, how do
Speaker 2: you look at it? And so is it a case
Speaker 2: of some of the smaller guys are going to fall
Speaker 2: to the wayside, or I don't know, how do you
Speaker 2: think of a big picture and then how do investors
Speaker 2: need to think about it? Maybe for some shifts that
Speaker 2: might be to come.
Speaker 5: It's a really interesting moment, and I'll actually use metas
Speaker 5: Earnings to kind of illustrate this. For you know, as
Speaker 5: long as we've had social it's really been about who
Speaker 5: follows you and kind of developing that following and choosing
Speaker 5: the people you follow. When TikTok kind of smashed on
Speaker 5: the scene, they changed the game. They made it about
Speaker 5: what content is best and what content's going to resonate
Speaker 5: with the user's interests instead of with the people that
Speaker 5: that user will follow. Meta YouTube they've all copied kind
Speaker 5: of that TikTok idea, where now your feed is full
Speaker 5: of things they think you might be interested in that's
Speaker 5: selected for you by an algorithm less so your friends
Speaker 5: and family, and so Meta and alphabet have been trying
Speaker 5: to kind of figure out how to match ads with
Speaker 5: those interest groups on this new kind of world where
Speaker 5: a snap has taken a little bit of a different approach.
Speaker 5: They have always had kind of the core feature of
Speaker 5: Snapchat being person to person communication, that kind.
Speaker 3: Of closed loop.
Speaker 5: But I will say it's really interesting. In the last
Speaker 5: few weeks here, Snap has announced that more people can
Speaker 5: now post content publicly, so you're seeing some kind of changes,
Speaker 5: And I think there's this really interesting tension right now
Speaker 5: between folks wanting to stay connected with friends and family
Speaker 5: and a lot of the platforms starting to move away
Speaker 5: from that in favor of showing you things that are
Speaker 5: maybe more entertaining, maybe more in the taking screen time
Speaker 5: from the Netflixes and Hulas of the world. But it's
Speaker 5: less about you know, your your aunts in Texas or
Speaker 5: your friend who's living in New York City.
Speaker 2: Yeah that's really funny. Yeah, no, it's so true, and
Speaker 2: spending a little bit like for the first time, I'm
Speaker 2: finally like checking out TikTok. I know I'm a little
Speaker 2: bit slow to the game, but kind of playing around
Speaker 2: with that more than like sitting down for hours, you know,
Speaker 2: binging on a series.
Speaker 4: Yeah no, I do it sometimes when I don't have
Speaker 4: the energy to pick a show. Alex, I want to
Speaker 4: end on your story about big tech being obsessed with
Speaker 4: cost cutting, except for when it comes to AI, tell
Speaker 4: me what's going on there?
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 5: I kind of made the argument in our newsletter today
Speaker 5: that AAI is coming for your jobs, just not the
Speaker 5: way you thought. Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, They've all come out
Speaker 5: kind of promising.
Speaker 3: These big cost cuts while.
Speaker 5: Also kind of emphatically reminding investors that they're spending tons
Speaker 5: of money on AI. So where is that money coming from?
Speaker 5: You can look back to the forty thousand positions that
Speaker 5: they've eliminated over the past few months to kind of
Speaker 5: keep those savings and reinvest those funds into artificial intelligence.
Speaker 5: So in this kind of big AI arms race that
Speaker 5: we're in right now, a lot of that's being interestingly
Speaker 5: funded by big tech from the dollars that are not
Speaker 5: going to headcount, that are not going to offices, that
Speaker 5: are only going to kind of the products that are
Speaker 5: getting folks really excited and leaving a lot of former
Speaker 5: employees kind of out to drive.
Speaker 2: Good to be a programmer right now? Really, you know, hey,
Speaker 2: really quickly fifteen seconds, what would you ask Snap on
Speaker 2: the earnings call?
Speaker 5: I want to know at what point revenue turns around
Speaker 5: the changes that they're making, when do those kick in,
Speaker 5: and when do they start luring advertisers to keep that
Speaker 5: top line from continuing to slip?
Speaker 2: All right, great stuff, as oways our Alex Birinka, Bloomberg
Speaker 2: News Technology reporter there in La and check out her newsletter.
Speaker 2: You can find it Bloomberg Tech Daily Newsletter. Just sign
Speaker 2: up at Bloomberg dot com Slash Technology.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us
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Speaker 2: Pressure is building on President Buying to respond after House
Speaker 2: Republicans unified on a set of demands to vert a
Speaker 2: contest a catastrophic US debt default in the coming weeks.
Speaker 2: So there's pressure on the President to really sit down
Speaker 2: with Speaker Kevin McCarthy. Well, Bloomberg watched correspondent Amory Hordern
Speaker 2: did sit down at the Speaker of the House to
Speaker 2: talk about where we are. Check it out, everybody.
Speaker 4: Many people doubted you were going to be able to
Speaker 4: get this bill passed through the floor. You prove them wrong.
Speaker 4: You successfully got it through the floor two hundred and
Speaker 4: seventeen voting in favor of you. Parsident Biden, though, says
Speaker 4: he's only going to meet with you if you separate
Speaker 4: the fiscal spending, cuts the budget with the debt ceiling.
Speaker 4: So what comes next.
Speaker 6: Well, I don't know, because it was eighty five days ago.
Speaker 7: I sat down with the President February first, talking about
Speaker 7: finding a sensible, responsible way to raise the debt limit
Speaker 7: and make us less dependent on China, curve inflation, and
Speaker 7: bring growth to this economy. And that's exactly what we
Speaker 7: just did. The President then said he wasn't going to
Speaker 7: meet with me until we showed him a plan. So
Speaker 7: then I showed him a plan, and then we passed it.
Speaker 7: You know, the way government works is the House passes
Speaker 7: the bill, the Senate passes a bill, and then you
Speaker 7: conference together and the President can sign decide whether he
Speaker 7: signs it or not. The challenge here is the Senate's nothing.
Speaker 6: But I shouldn't be rude.
Speaker 7: They did name March Maine maple syrup, but they did
Speaker 7: get that done, but they haven't done anything on the
Speaker 7: debt sitting, and the President has ignored this problem. He's
Speaker 7: actually putting the economy of America in jeopardy by not
Speaker 7: doing anything because only the House has raised the debt limit.
Speaker 7: Passed the bill to do that and at the same.
Speaker 6: Time grow the economy.
Speaker 7: And we did it with ideas that he has voted.
Speaker 6: For work requirements. He voted for that as a Senator.
Speaker 7: But more importantly, just a couple months ago in Wisconsin
Speaker 7: it passed with eighty two percent of the vote to
Speaker 7: limit our growth in the future so government doesn't get
Speaker 7: out of control. Well, that's an idea from Joe Manchin.
Speaker 7: We help the supply chain, We repel eighty seven thousand
Speaker 7: IRS agents, We make America energy independent. We cut the
Speaker 7: red tape so we could build things again in America.
Speaker 6: I don't think that's radical.
Speaker 7: And the words that are coming out of the White
Speaker 7: House that we are going to melt children's bones, we're
Speaker 7: going to create asthma, there's nothing in the build that
Speaker 7: does that. It actually text veterans protects our military, makes
Speaker 7: his a stronger case for the future.
Speaker 2: All right, That, of course, was the US Speaker of
Speaker 2: the House, Kevin McCarthy catching up with our Bloomberg Washington
Speaker 2: correspondent and Marie Horden. If you want to hear more
Speaker 2: of the interview, just get to Bloomberg dot Com or
Speaker 2: check it out on the Bloomberg Terminal. This is Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 2: Well things can maybe get for the over one hundred
Speaker 2: million obesion overweight individuals in the United States. Uh, there
Speaker 2: is a story in the new issue Bloomberg BusinessWeek. It's
Speaker 2: out on newsstands, online at Bloomberg dot com, slash BusinessWeek,
Speaker 2: and on the Bloomberg Terminal. And many of these individuals
Speaker 2: would love to lose a bunch of weight to improve
Speaker 2: their health situation. And you know what, there's a bunch
Speaker 2: of drugs out there that can do that. The big
Speaker 2: problem though, is the cost and having to use the
Speaker 2: drug for the rest of your life. All right, let's
Speaker 2: get into it with our Bloomberg News healthcare reporting team
Speaker 2: who wrote the story of Emma Court and Bob Langreth.
Speaker 2: They are both here in our Interactive Broker studio. So
Speaker 2: excited to have both of you with us. Emma, why
Speaker 2: don't you kick it off with us and tell us
Speaker 2: about this class of drugs which they were mentioned at
Speaker 2: the Oscars. Comedians talk about them. I think Elon Musk
Speaker 2: has talked about them. Tell us what we're talking about.
Speaker 8: Yeah, Well, first of all, thank you so much for
Speaker 8: having us on. We're really excited about the story. It's
Speaker 8: the cover story this week, so we're thrilled. These new
Speaker 8: drugs are called effectively glp ones. They're named after a
Speaker 8: hormone they mimic that essentially helps people feel fuller, they
Speaker 8: have less appetite, they eat less, and they lose weight.
Speaker 8: What's interesting about these drugs is they're not all that new.
Speaker 8: This class has been around for diabetes for many years,
Speaker 8: but more recently pharma companies have been developing them specifically
Speaker 8: for obesity. There's a couple of different names for them.
Speaker 8: People are very familiar by now with ozembic, which is
Speaker 8: a diabetes drug. That's the one that Jimmy Kimmel joked
Speaker 8: about at the oscars. But they're are also drugs called.
Speaker 2: If everybody laughed or whether it was like deadpan, because
Speaker 2: it was like hitting too.
Speaker 8: Go ahead, they're well. There are a number of perhaps
Speaker 8: less well known drugs, including a new one called Munjaro
Speaker 8: that hasn't been formally approved for obesity but likely will
Speaker 8: in the next year. There's also a drug called Wigovi,
Speaker 8: which was the first sort of highly effective obesity drug
Speaker 8: approved in the US. And what's really interesting about them is,
Speaker 8: you know, these are drugs that are helping people lose
Speaker 8: up to fifty pounds in some cases. So they're way
Speaker 8: more effective than anything that had been available for weight
Speaker 8: loss before, and it's getting a lot of doctors and
Speaker 8: patients excited about it.
Speaker 4: So Bob, come in here, because we've all, i think,
Speaker 4: heard in our lifetimes about a variety of different diet
Speaker 4: pills and ways to lose weight. Certainly as a woman
Speaker 4: growing up in the nineties heard about plenty of them.
Speaker 4: How is ozemba weegov, how is it different? And what
Speaker 4: are the risks and the some of the benefits I'm.
Speaker 9: Talking to Yeah, one of the really interesting things for
Speaker 9: me as I've been covering drug industry for decades and
Speaker 9: you know, a b City weight loss that was kind
Speaker 9: of always like a graveyard for drugs. Drugnacity had been
Speaker 9: trying for a long time to come up with drugs.
Speaker 9: There was the kind of there are a whole bunch
Speaker 9: of safety v calls. One of the most famous ones
Speaker 9: or infamous ones was fen fen back in the late nineties,
Speaker 9: where one of the components caused heart problems. Uh so
Speaker 9: BC drugs for a long time at a bad reputation,
Speaker 9: and these ones, you know, sort of came a little
Speaker 9: bit almost out of left field. As MS said, they
Speaker 9: were developed for diabetes, and drug companies increasingly started you know,
Speaker 9: noting noticing the weight loss effects they were seeing. And
Speaker 9: as I started testing the drugs uh in people that
Speaker 9: didn't have diabetes there that were uh suffered from a
Speaker 9: b CD but didn't have diabetes, they started seeing even larger.
Speaker 6: Amounts of weight loss.
Speaker 9: Uh So, the safety track record and diabetes is pretty good.
Speaker 9: Like all drugs are not without risks, you know, but
Speaker 9: they do have a number of side effects, including non
Speaker 9: in vomiting and diarrhea potentially, so do you have a bunch
Speaker 9: of gi side effects and you actually have to tightrate
Speaker 9: them up slowly. These are injectable drugs. It's not a
Speaker 9: simple pill. You have to inject them, most.
Speaker 6: Of them weekly.
Speaker 1: Most of that.
Speaker 9: Yeah, the new ones are weekly. And what's happened is
Speaker 9: as they've gone to sort of more potent, long acting ones,
Speaker 9: they've seen the anti obesity effect increase, and that's when
Speaker 9: they've started to get some of these dramatic weight loss.
Speaker 9: And the Eli Lilomanjaro drug, which is like the newest one.
Speaker 9: It's only approved for diabetes, but Eli Lilly is very
Speaker 9: soon going to seek approval for obesity. That's the one
Speaker 9: that's showing some of the most dramatic weight loss effects
Speaker 9: so far, and they just had another positive study out today.
Speaker 2: Why is it so expensive?
Speaker 8: It's the billion dollar question.
Speaker 2: I feel like we asked this so often about drugs,
Speaker 2: and I know we do, but why is it especially
Speaker 2: it's been around for a while, right, I'm just curious,
Speaker 2: why is it so expensive?
Speaker 8: So some of these drugs are newer, and they are
Speaker 8: the most expensive ones, so they they are new, they
Speaker 8: can't say they've been around for many years.
Speaker 6: You know.
Speaker 8: It's a difficult question, and we certainly asked the companies
Speaker 8: about it, and we didn't get a super straight answer
Speaker 8: on it. I would say, I'm curious what Bob thinks
Speaker 8: about those.
Speaker 9: Well, I've been asking drug companies about their pricing.
Speaker 6: Forever, druggies, forever.
Speaker 9: You know that that is one question when you ask,
Speaker 9: it's very very difficult to get. Like my senses, they
Speaker 9: don't really tell you the real answer, like what happened
Speaker 9: in the back room when they decided.
Speaker 2: I have a brother who was in pharmacuticals for over
Speaker 2: twenty years, and he was always like, listen, we do
Speaker 2: so much R and D, and I'm like, did I
Speaker 2: ever come on? You also make a ton of money
Speaker 2: on stuff.
Speaker 9: So but basically in the US, you know, it's a
Speaker 9: free market. Drug companies and price their drugs at kind
Speaker 9: of whatever price they want. And these when they came
Speaker 9: on the market as diabetes drugs, they were priced, you know,
Speaker 9: fairly high. And they and some of the pricing. There's
Speaker 9: one that will Govi drug, which is a higher dose
Speaker 9: version of a zempic that Nova Nordi sells her obesity.
Speaker 9: They priced out it even higher price than nozempic. It's
Speaker 9: exact different doses of the exact same you know, chemical compound,
Speaker 9: but one is a higher price.
Speaker 6: The abcity one is a higher price.
Speaker 8: The second interesting aspect of this is like when you
Speaker 8: look at the sheer number of people who would be
Speaker 8: eligible for these drugs in the US, it's more than
Speaker 8: one hundred million people, right, So it's like it's massive.
Speaker 8: Why are the prices so high given that the market
Speaker 8: opportunity is huge? And we actually talked to one of
Speaker 8: the sort of foundational scientists in this field. His name
Speaker 8: is Dan Drucker, and he was one of the guys
Speaker 8: who helped discover these hormones in the body many many
Speaker 8: years ago. And he said, you know, he's asked companies
Speaker 8: over the years, why don't you just do, you know,
Speaker 8: be the McDonald's in the space, Which is kind of
Speaker 8: an ironic comparison if you think about it, But you know,
Speaker 8: why don't you come out with really cheaper versions of
Speaker 8: these drugs and lots of people take them and you'll
Speaker 8: still make a bunch of money.
Speaker 2: And you're talking about one in three how many was
Speaker 2: our population.
Speaker 6: Of adults in the US of obesity.
Speaker 2: Yeah, so what's interesting too, And I feel like there's
Speaker 2: a bigger, broader conversation when it comes to healthcare, right,
Speaker 2: I mean being overweight so in COVID like that could
Speaker 2: make you more susceptible to not having a great outcome.
Speaker 2: I mean, being overweight for most people causes all these
Speaker 2: other problems. We know, it's a big reason why there's
Speaker 2: so much diabetes. Where is the medical community, where's the
Speaker 2: insurance community. I'm thinking about if we can get people
Speaker 2: to be not so overweight that it's just better for
Speaker 2: their health, come, their their healthcare, their outcomes and also
Speaker 2: their health care costs.
Speaker 8: Well. One really important and interesting aspect of this is
Speaker 8: we often blame weight for a lot of things in
Speaker 8: our society, and it's interesting to look at this idea
Speaker 8: of BMI and realize it's kind of imprecise.
Speaker 3: Right, it was.
Speaker 8: Supposed to be kind of a population level measure, and
Speaker 8: instead it's been applied to individuals, So like, if someone
Speaker 8: has a certain weight, regardless of what their health looks
Speaker 8: like in other aspects, they are obese just because of
Speaker 8: their BMI.
Speaker 3: Right.
Speaker 8: If you think about that, it's kind of an interesting aspect,
Speaker 8: Like you could be totally healthy, have no diabetes, have
Speaker 8: no high cholesterol, whatever, and you're still ill by some
Speaker 8: of these kind of modern standard So it is kind
Speaker 8: of a nuanced, complicated topic. While higher weights have been
Speaker 8: really highly associated with lots of different diseases, it's important
Speaker 8: to note that there are a lot of shades of
Speaker 8: gray here. Another interesting aspect of this is like, how.
Speaker 2: Does that mean not as many people would really kind
Speaker 2: of be eligible for these.
Speaker 8: Well, that's the kind million, right, So if you think
Speaker 8: about it, maybe not everyone who qualifies as overweight or
Speaker 8: obese is necessarily going to be the best candidate for
Speaker 8: these drugs. There's a big kind of murky middle of
Speaker 8: people who where it's not totally clear how big a
Speaker 8: danger than they are we impose it.
Speaker 9: This is a really important question here. So like the
Speaker 9: risks of of you know, suffering from obesity, you know,
Speaker 9: as opposed to someone's normal way. A lot of that
Speaker 9: comes from epidemiological studies. You know, what's not been proven
Speaker 9: over the long terms. If you take the weight off
Speaker 9: with one of these drugs, you know, do you eliminate
Speaker 9: all these like actual like risks like the risk of
Speaker 9: heart disease and strokes and other like concrete you know,
Speaker 9: does it makenal downsides? They haven't actually proven that in
Speaker 9: trials right now. It's not necessarily the case that you know,
Speaker 9: you'll get all that benefit because these are epidemiology studies
Speaker 9: and your communit you're comparing risk factors and there might
Speaker 9: be other things that are different, you know, when they
Speaker 9: when they do these complicated comparisons. So the companies, that's
Speaker 9: the that's what I'm sure that's what they say. This
Speaker 9: is not proven. There's only really proven to take off
Speaker 9: a lot of way. You haven't proven that it prevents
Speaker 9: a heart attack or a stroke five years from now,
Speaker 9: and you have.
Speaker 4: To take it forever, seemingly to prevent the heart disease.
Speaker 8: So what the That's what the pharma companies are saying,
Speaker 8: that's what the doctors are saying. There have been studies
Speaker 8: of this new drug, WIGOVI that show when people quit
Speaker 8: the drug after a year the way it comes back
Speaker 8: for most people. So that is a big issue about
Speaker 8: such an expensive drug like this is possibly a lifelong thing,
Speaker 8: and it does raise questions about, well, what is the
Speaker 8: side effect profile here? We're not talking about taking something
Speaker 8: for a few months or years.
Speaker 4: Forever potentially does does it insurance tend to cover it?
Speaker 4: If you are at that BMI, then what's the spread?
Speaker 9: It's all over the place right now. We do a
Speaker 9: lot of reporting this. It's all over the place right now,
Speaker 9: and you know, whether you have access to one of
Speaker 9: these drugs may kind of just depend on the luck
Speaker 9: of the drawer and what your particular insurance company you
Speaker 9: have to you end up at. But like basically three
Speaker 9: quarters of state we surveyed all fifty states state medicaid programs,
Speaker 9: three quarters the states have very little coverage for obesity drugs,
Speaker 9: and you're roughly approx. Give or take a few three
Speaker 9: quarters of private insurance generally don't cover obesity drugs either.
Speaker 9: Now the coverage we've found signs that the coverage is
Speaker 9: starting to increase. For example, in Medicaid, eight different states
Speaker 9: told us they're considering it. But this is like, this
Speaker 9: is like the big battle that's going to be going
Speaker 9: on the next year between the drug companies and the
Speaker 9: doctors that favor more coverage and insurance companies.
Speaker 6: That's like, that's like the big battle.
Speaker 8: It was amazing to see how much coverage ranged in
Speaker 8: this fifty state survey of Medicaid plans, which met kitas
Speaker 8: covers low income folks for health insurance. I mean, there
Speaker 8: was one state that literally told us we will pay
Speaker 8: for you know, some obesity drugs for people under the
Speaker 8: age of twenty one, for young people, but not adults.
Speaker 8: We're like, what, Like, there's so much.
Speaker 2: That, I mean, what would make it much more clear?
Speaker 2: I just got about thirty seconds. Is it some study
Speaker 2: that needs to be like, what is it? That would
Speaker 2: be like health insurans would be like, yeah, we got
Speaker 2: to be in on this or not.
Speaker 9: The big studies, The most important studies that are coming
Speaker 9: is that both Eli Lilly and Nova Noordis, which they
Speaker 9: are the two makers. They're studying their drugs in people
Speaker 9: with a BC to show they can prevent heart attacks
Speaker 9: and strokes. And you know, if they do that, if
Speaker 9: those studies succeed, it's going to be much much harder
Speaker 9: for insurance to deny coverage.
Speaker 8: Yeah, and that's going to be a big, big thing
Speaker 8: that's going to come in the next couple of months.
Speaker 8: Heart disease is the leading killer of Americans. So this
Speaker 8: is something with really high stakes.
Speaker 2: All right, great story, guys. It is the cover of
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Business Week. As we said, it is out on newsstands.
Speaker 2: It's already on the Bloomberg terminal and online at Bloomberg
Speaker 2: dot com Slash BusinessWeek, The Court and Bob Langreth, both
Speaker 2: healthcare reporters here at Bloomberg News, joining us here in
Speaker 2: our interactive broker story. Be sure to check it out.
Speaker 2: It's also going to be in our weekend show on
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Radio. This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm brother Marco,
Speaker 2: a journal How about you let me drive?
Speaker 1: No, no, no, no, honey, please, how do the riding gravel?
Speaker 6: Let's mate, I.
Speaker 2: Want to try it.
Speaker 10: It's a good question.
Speaker 2: Try This is the Drive to the Clothes dot Com
Speaker 2: tm me think we'll buy around to other on I'm
Speaker 2: on Bloomberg Radio. All right, everybody, we have just under
Speaker 2: eighteen minutes left in today's trading session, getting ready to
Speaker 2: wrap up the Thursday trade. We've got big earnings coming,
Speaker 2: as Charlie mentioned, Amazon, Intel, a few others after the
Speaker 2: Clothes holding out to gain sell on the equity side
Speaker 2: of things. So let's get to it. Our Drive to
Speaker 2: the Close guest on this Thursday is Shanil Ramsey, Senior
Speaker 2: investment Manager. You're at Picta Asset Management here in our
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio with Maddie and myself. Nice to
Speaker 2: have you here.
Speaker 10: How are you Yeah, very good, Thanks for having me.
Speaker 10: Nice to be in New York?
Speaker 2: Yeah, oh good. Where are you typically based in London?
Speaker 2: In London? All right, so tell me mood difference between
Speaker 2: London and here.
Speaker 10: Well, firstly, the weather is not as good in London,
Speaker 10: let me tell you that much. But now it's like
Speaker 10: it's lovely to be back in New York. Haven't been
Speaker 10: back for several years and the buzz is great.
Speaker 2: It does feel like the energy when you're in London, though,
Speaker 2: is what is the conversation you think most that you
Speaker 2: guys talk about at work versus like when you come
Speaker 2: over to the US and you're talking to different clients.
Speaker 2: Is it a little bit different? Is it the same stuff?
Speaker 10: Yeah? In the US it's typically quite US focused. You know,
Speaker 10: we have a much global, much more global view in London,
Speaker 10: and it's always the US versus the rest. Right Where
Speaker 10: when are we going to see performance come through from
Speaker 10: the rest of the world. And we do see that
Speaker 10: coming to the for this year and in some ways
Speaker 10: with European innses doing quite well this year, uh and
Speaker 10: the reopening of China really starting to drive some investment decisions.
Speaker 10: So coming coming to YES this week, I think this
Speaker 10: is what people have been asking about.
Speaker 4: Are you monitoring every single potential data point that could
Speaker 4: impact the fed's moves as much as we are here, you'd.
Speaker 10: Be surprised that in Europe we care a lot about
Speaker 10: that too, right, So we we are, you know, watching
Speaker 10: each and every statement also, but we try and trying
Speaker 10: to have that more applicable to what's going on elsewhere.
Speaker 10: What is the ECB, what is the BOE, what is
Speaker 10: the bo J what is the Chinese?
Speaker 6: Uh people?
Speaker 10: Yeah, so how how are they responding to what the
Speaker 10: FED is doing? But you know, the FED is still
Speaker 10: the big the big guy in the room, and we
Speaker 10: really need to know what Jay, Paul and co. Are
Speaker 10: going to do well.
Speaker 2: So, having said that, you do to take a global perspective,
Speaker 2: and lucky for us, you've shared something else with our producers.
Speaker 2: So we know that you do like non US equities
Speaker 2: more than you like US equities from what I understand,
Speaker 2: make that case.
Speaker 10: So at the moment, we know that the valuations in
Speaker 10: the US are quite high with this thing s and
Speaker 10: people have one hundred is about eighteen times. When we
Speaker 10: look elsewhere around the world, we think looking at much
Speaker 10: lower valuations twelve times in Europe, ten times in the UK,
Speaker 10: much lower in parts of Asia. So we can say,
Speaker 10: for on a valuation case that this is interesting. But
Speaker 10: we know that the rest of the world's always been
Speaker 10: cheaper in general. So why now? Why do we think now?
Speaker 10: So firstly, we think there's a desynchronization in the global economy.
Speaker 10: We see the US economy is slowing. We saw today's
Speaker 10: GDP number a bit slower, bit more inflation, And when
Speaker 10: we look at the rest of the world. Having had
Speaker 10: the big energy scare that we saw at the end
Speaker 10: of the last year in Europe and thinking that we
Speaker 10: were going to have a big recession in Europe first
Speaker 10: quarter this year, that didn't materialize, and we're getting a
Speaker 10: cyclical upswing in Europe. But that's also aided by the
Speaker 10: fact that China reopened, right, So the China reopening has
Speaker 10: helped look at non US growth being a little bit
Speaker 10: better than US growth, and that's turning into some positives
Speaker 10: for earnings, not just in China but elsewhere.
Speaker 2: There's Europe. In Europe's a pretty big area region. What
Speaker 2: specifically are there certain markets, are there certain types of industries,
Speaker 2: certain companies.
Speaker 10: Absolutely so in Europe, we really like the consumer sectors,
Speaker 10: the consumer cyclicals. But really in a world where we
Speaker 10: know that there's this inflation pressure, we think the high
Speaker 10: end consumer is doing the best right. The affluent consumer
Speaker 10: has the ability to spend more. So when we look
Speaker 10: at those premium brands, when we look at those luxury companies,
Speaker 10: they continue to grow their revenue base. They are interesting
Speaker 10: companies in the sense that so like you'r lvmators, Absolutely
Speaker 10: LVMH is the the LVMH, for example, encompasses all those
Speaker 10: luxury brands, and we think there are many of them
Speaker 10: in Europe, and that's what Europe does best. You know,
Speaker 10: we know that those are some of the best companies
Speaker 10: in Europe. Those those luxury.
Speaker 2: Cots are US luxury brands. We love you, even if
Speaker 2: I'm just kidding. Yeah, no, I mean it's but I
Speaker 2: know what you're saying. And we've talked about that. We've
Speaker 2: done a lot of reporting that as these results come in,
Speaker 2: the luxury names have really been out performing, and we
Speaker 2: are talking about the China reopening as one of the reasons.
Speaker 2: But US shoppers are buying too, certainly US high end shoppers.
Speaker 4: Yeah, why do you think that US high end shoppers
Speaker 4: are more susceptible to headwinds than European high end shoppers.
Speaker 10: I think the high the US high end, the consumer
Speaker 10: is also going to be quite resilient. We've seen the
Speaker 10: numbers today on the consumption being still quite strong, right,
Speaker 10: so we know that the consumer in the US has
Speaker 10: been good.
Speaker 2: And those are January numbers, as are Mike McKee reminded us,
Speaker 2: and we'll get March I think tomorrow. So it was
Speaker 2: kind of before the banking, you know, kind of meltdown
Speaker 2: of a few names, So it'll be interesting to see
Speaker 2: if it continues to hold up.
Speaker 10: But even if we look at travel, for example, travel
Speaker 10: in leisure, when we look at the hotel hotel chain numbers,
Speaker 10: when we look at the airline numbers, these numbers have
Speaker 10: been pretty good. So we know that the consumers are
Speaker 10: spending on what they hold deer and right now what
Speaker 10: they hold dear is some of those luxury brands and
Speaker 10: also the travel and leisure that they that they care
Speaker 10: about most.
Speaker 2: So you know, how much would you suggest for an
Speaker 2: investor to have of their portfolio with non US exposure
Speaker 2: at this point at.
Speaker 10: The moment, just in that luxury consumer discretion era, the
Speaker 10: portfolio that we built for clients has about five percent
Speaker 10: in those areas, and we think that that's just because
Speaker 10: the consumer is the driver right now in the global economy.
Speaker 10: We do think, however, that that will slow over time.
Speaker 10: And what we see in that desynchronization that I mentioned
Speaker 10: is also desynchronization in the sectors of the economy that
Speaker 10: are working. And one of those sectors that we think
Speaker 10: could have some better performance in the second half of
Speaker 10: the year now is the more manufacturing or industrial sector,
Speaker 10: and we are seeing some of those numbers.
Speaker 2: Come out for over Europe or more broadly.
Speaker 10: More more broadly, more globally, and I think the European
Speaker 10: story in terms of the industrials, we see earning revisions
Speaker 10: pick up, and that's partly due to some of the
Speaker 10: fiscal stimus that we see around some of the environmental
Speaker 10: spend that's going on. Look at the either the IRA
Speaker 10: or what this similar policies in Europe. These are spending
Speaker 10: that governments are doing that are going to benefit some
Speaker 10: of these industrial companies and their auder books are already
Speaker 10: showing that.
Speaker 4: But a lot of consumer discretionary companies in the US
Speaker 4: are having amazing earnings. I'm thinking about McDonald's, PEPSI, so maybe.
Speaker 2: Not just the high drum their global names. Yeah, absolutely,
Speaker 2: So we got about thirty seconds left.
Speaker 10: When we look at those those global US companies, they
Speaker 10: have been having good numbers. And for example, I think
Speaker 10: Clad said some of their coffee shops in China were
Speaker 10: rarely showing positive earnings, so you know, you know it's
Speaker 10: open when people are going out to coffee shops, So
Speaker 10: you know, these are some of the data that we
Speaker 10: look at so it's not just European companies, right, you
Speaker 10: are right, it is also American companies. But we think
Speaker 10: the consumer generally is the place for you, all.
Speaker 2: Right, that we're certain to see that and as you said,
Speaker 2: higher end in particular. Nil, thank you so much, really
Speaker 2: appreciate it. Shamiel Ramchi, He's senior investment manager at Picta
Speaker 2: Asset Management, joining us here in our Bloomberg in Directive
Speaker 2: Brokers studio.
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