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Speaker 1: So joining me now for what I consider the second

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Speaker 1: start of the new year in any given year, at

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Speaker 1: least as far as Washington is concerned, it is September

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Speaker 1: has a feeling of almost the same feeling you get

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Speaker 1: when you actually start a new calendar year. First week

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Speaker 1: of school has that feel to it. Well, it's the

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Speaker 1: first week of business as far as on Capitol Hill.

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Speaker 1: So it's the news organization of record, punch Bowl News.

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Speaker 1: I got the two co founders, Anna Palmer and Jake Sherman.

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Speaker 1: Welcome and do you share this belief Jake, that September

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Speaker 1: does it feel I've always felt this, this sort of

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Speaker 1: the first week of labor Day is almost like a

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Speaker 1: new year. Do you share that feeling? Being a Capitol

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Speaker 1: Hill creature, I do.

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Speaker 2: It feels like people are this is only a three

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Speaker 2: day week this first week.

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Speaker 1: So they're not it's Congress pretty weeks. That's a lot

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Speaker 1: of work.

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Speaker 3: And it's not even really three days.

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Speaker 2: They come in on Tuesday night and they're out on

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Speaker 2: Thursday afternoon, so it's really a one and it's a

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Speaker 2: two day week. Really, the it is, Yes, it does

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Speaker 2: feel like a new year, and it feels like and

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Speaker 2: you know, we're benefited, at least in some way by

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Speaker 2: the fact that we benefit from the fact that there's

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Speaker 2: a government.

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Speaker 3: Funding deadline at the end of this week. So that's

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Speaker 3: that's uh, this month, Yeah, sorry, this month. Sorry.

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Speaker 2: That adds to the urgency and the feeling of like

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Speaker 2: we're driving towards something big here. So yeah, it does

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Speaker 2: feel like the beginning of the if the air is crisp,

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Speaker 2: the kids are back in school, so yes, it does

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Speaker 2: feel like that, you know.

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Speaker 1: And there's a there's a weird before we get into

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Speaker 1: sort of like everything that's moving in the next twenty

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Speaker 1: four seventy two hours and behind the large narrative of

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Speaker 1: the last nine months has been this sort of the

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Speaker 1: growing ear irrelevance is the wrong word, but it's getting

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Speaker 1: close to irrelevance of of sort of the weakness of Congress,

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Speaker 1: the weakness of the legislative branch you're in the business

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Speaker 1: of being. I've always believed right that this town, you know,

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Speaker 1: the heartbeat of this town is Capitol Hill. They you know,

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Speaker 1: everything emanates from Capitol Hill. And yet I do share

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Speaker 1: that same feeling that, you know, the Trump two point

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Speaker 1: zero really has rendered Congress less relevant. Am I is

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Speaker 1: that fair?

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Speaker 4: I think they's so really relevant. I mean, I think

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Speaker 4: the difference is what we've seen is a real seeding

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Speaker 4: of power. I agree with you on that, where Congress

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Speaker 4: has said there's a time to check in balance and

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Speaker 4: the typical kind of give and take that you expect

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Speaker 4: from an administration and Congress, and you've seen congressional Republicans

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Speaker 4: in an all GOP town seed a lot of that

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Speaker 4: or agree with the President on things like recisions right

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Speaker 4: or when it comes to kind of just rubber stamp

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Speaker 4: some of his nominees. I think the big question that

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Speaker 4: we keep looking at, and I think government funding is

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Speaker 4: one of those big moments where Democrats will play a role.

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Speaker 4: But I think the question that you continue to ask

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Speaker 4: and I ask, you know, and Jake and I talk

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Speaker 4: about all the time, is on the Republican side, you know,

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Speaker 4: what happens now, There's going to be a bunch of nominees,

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Speaker 4: There's going to be a bunch of things that are happening.

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Speaker 4: You know, is there some friction point or a tipping

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Speaker 4: point where Republicans are worried after being back home in

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Speaker 4: this August recess and they say, hey, the big beautiful

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Speaker 4: bill isn't selling. Everybody is worried about their own reelection.

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Speaker 4: That is what lawmakers care most about, right, And so

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Speaker 4: if Trump is hurting them more than he's helping them,

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Speaker 4: will we see some kind of reorganization. I think it's

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Speaker 4: you know, we don't know yet.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I was just is it fair to call this, Jake,

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Speaker 1: that the midterm campaign start this month? Yes? You know, look,

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Speaker 1: in some ways, you're always in cycle. There's no downtime,

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Speaker 1: just like apparently we're always in redistricting. We're always in

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Speaker 1: reapportionment now, but you're an as you have to behave

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Speaker 1: like you're always in cycle. But now every lawmaker is

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Speaker 1: thinking more about November twenty twenty six than they are

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Speaker 1: any other month. Right.

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Speaker 2: Well, the White House was up here this week on

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Speaker 2: Capitol Hill trying to rebrand the One Big Beautiful Bill

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Speaker 2: as I agree as the as the Working Families Tax Plan,

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Speaker 2: which is you know, I tweeted that there's and I

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Speaker 2: think an chuck, you'll both agree with this. When a

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Speaker 2: party is getting smoked, they blame the messenger, and that's

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Speaker 2: or the message and the messenger. So yeah, listen, I

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Speaker 2: think that the thing that is interesting to me and

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Speaker 2: I say this, and you could see Ali Muttnik, who

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Speaker 2: covers House campaigns and redistricting, over my I.

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Speaker 3: Guess as my left shoulder.

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Speaker 2: It feels very unsettled at the moment, chuck in a

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Speaker 2: way that is unlike previous cycle, you know what I mean,

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Speaker 2: Like it's.

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Speaker 1: Just and this is on both sides, right is this?

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Speaker 1: Is this due to and I've heard you know, both

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Speaker 1: Mike Johnson and a King Jeffries, I heard spent August

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Speaker 1: taking incoming from members who were pissed off about the

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Speaker 1: redistricting wars but couldn't say so publicly.

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Speaker 2: Well, so, yes, and I think listen, you know, you

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Speaker 2: pretty much know unless there's a court that intervenes, you

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Speaker 2: know what the map in Texas is probably going to

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Speaker 2: look like. You don't exactly know what the map in

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Speaker 2: California is going to look like. You don't know what

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Speaker 2: it's going to look like in Indiana. You don't know

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Speaker 2: what it's going to look like in Ohio, you don't

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Speaker 2: know what it's going to look like in Florida, and

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Speaker 2: increasingly we don't know what it's going to look like

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Speaker 2: in Maryland. To gay, they could redistrict in Maryland, they

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Speaker 2: could redistrict in deep in Missouri.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, y went deep on the Missouri map today.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, So you know, it just feels like, I

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Speaker 2: mean California and Texas alone, and really Texas alone or

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Speaker 2: California alone could swing the entire majority obviously, so we

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Speaker 2: don't you know, the history tells us that Republicans should

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Speaker 2: lose the majority, but it's not.

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Speaker 3: There's no there's no analogy here.

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Speaker 2: It's not an analogous to any previous cycle in which

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Speaker 2: the map was saying, Thompson, the map is not staying

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Speaker 2: dunsteady year.

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Speaker 3: So I find that all to be very interesting.

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Speaker 1: Look. I just had Jared Moscowitz on earlier this week,

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Speaker 1: and he's a guy. If they redistrict him out of

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Speaker 1: his seat in Broward and Palm Beach, he said he's

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Speaker 1: going to run for Senate. So that only that sort

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Speaker 1: of reinforces your point, all this uncertainty. You know, he

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Speaker 1: wants to run for reelection, but he doesn't know if

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Speaker 1: he is. And he's not alone, right, He's just voiced it.

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Speaker 1: And and so that has to be what's created that

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Speaker 1: feeling that you've got.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, And and by the way, like Florida is a

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Speaker 2: prime example of just it feels to me, Chuck, like

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Speaker 2: all of these states I mean and not feels to me.

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Speaker 3: It's clear all of these states are trying to one.

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Speaker 2: Up each other at this point, right, I mean, Florida

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Speaker 2: is a I mean, you're very familiar with the state of.

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Speaker 1: It's already pretty well jerrymandered. I didn't think there was

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Speaker 1: anything more they could.

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Speaker 3: Do, you know, I mean taking taking W.

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Speaker 2: Wasserm and Schultz's seat, which is a traditional kind of

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Speaker 2: South Florida seat, and dragging it to Naples to bring

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Speaker 2: in more Republican voters.

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Speaker 3: So having it kind of go from you know, the it's.

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Speaker 1: I seventy five for people, it would basically be trying

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Speaker 1: to create it alligator.

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Speaker 2: Alley, Okay, we had an alligator up until it would

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Speaker 2: be a district around Yeah. So I mean you're talking

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Speaker 2: about a map that is It's just it's all very

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Speaker 2: fascinating to me.

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Speaker 3: And you know, listen, can they do this?

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Speaker 1: Yes?

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Speaker 2: Should we be in a situation in which states can

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Speaker 2: just at the drop of a hat redraw their lines.

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Speaker 2: I mean until Congress does something about it, Until until

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Speaker 2: these states put it in their constitution that they can't

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Speaker 2: like like New York.

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Speaker 3: Then then they're gonna they the door is open.

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Speaker 1: To doing it, and yeah, go ahead.

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Speaker 3: No, it's I just want to add one.

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Speaker 4: I think the thing that's going to be interesting is

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Speaker 4: here is on Democrats, right, they had moved really away

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Speaker 4: from this, saying California we're going to do independent commissions.

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Speaker 4: That was a huge, you know, kind of ground swell

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Speaker 4: over the last you know, at least five plus years

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Speaker 4: for Democrats, and now that's biting them, right, So if

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Speaker 4: you're Democrats, why would you do it? It's really similar

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Speaker 4: to like, you know, when Democrats said, oh, we're not

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Speaker 4: going to be we're not gonna have super packs, big

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Speaker 4: money's bad, and then they say, oh wow, actually Republicans

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Speaker 4: have duced the system, and unless we play by the

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Speaker 4: rules that they're playing by, we're going to lose. This

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Speaker 4: I think is really similar thing is going to happen.

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Speaker 4: I have a hard time seeing Congress stepping in and saying, okay, now,

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Speaker 4: after this time, we're going to change it so that

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Speaker 4: you know, they're not going to be able to change

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Speaker 4: these at a drop of a hat.

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Speaker 1: Well, you sort of just answered the question I was

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Speaker 1: about to address to you, which is are there any

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Speaker 1: institutionalists left in the Republican side of the House, who

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Speaker 1: who look at this publicly well, right that I'm aware of,

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Speaker 1: But are there any, right like, are there any behind

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Speaker 1: the scenes going what are you know? Because all of

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Speaker 1: this takes power away from the legislative branch, right, the

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Speaker 1: redistricting takes power away, All of it takes power away.

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Speaker 1: And I got to think, you know, and I guess

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Speaker 1: you know, there's just only so many hal Rogers that

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Speaker 1: are you know, I mean, are there any left that

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Speaker 1: want to sort of say, hey, enough of enough? You know,

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Speaker 1: eventually we're not going to have a president we like

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Speaker 1: in here, and we have just given away way too

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Speaker 1: much power.

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Speaker 4: I think there's two things to think about, and I'll

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Speaker 4: take it over to Jake, But I mean, in my

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Speaker 4: mind it is there's fewer of them, right, They've retired,

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Speaker 4: they've moved on. They you know, I mean, you look

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Speaker 4: at kind of the seniority system, which used to be

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Speaker 4: king on Capitol Hill has really seen a reduction in

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Speaker 4: terms of favoritism of that where you've had this kind

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Speaker 4: of next generation saying finally it's got we got to

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Speaker 4: move on, right. And I think the second thing that

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Speaker 4: you've really seen is just the groundswell of new members

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Speaker 4: right this institutionalism, These people that were there forever you

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Speaker 4: they aren't staying there. If you look at the Senate

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Speaker 4: right like, and that would be the place where all, oh,

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Speaker 4: this is going to be. Things are going to move slower,

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Speaker 4: We're going to have a lot more rules. The center

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Speaker 4: looks a lot more like the House than it did

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Speaker 4: ten years ago. And it only has continued to speed up.

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Speaker 4: And I think started with Republicans and you were really

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Speaker 4: singing even more on Democrats now as well.

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Speaker 2: I could tell you this, Chuck, I just won one

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Speaker 2: on the institutionalist thing. I could tell you that in

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Speaker 2: Texas from our reporting over the last couple of months,

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Speaker 2: I mean, nobody, not a single incumbent in Texas was

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Speaker 2: asking for redistricting.

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Speaker 3: And they, you know, they said.

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Speaker 2: I had one member say to me, I don't want

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Speaker 2: to say too much because I'll get away.

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Speaker 3: I'll give away with this is he said, I just got.

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Speaker 1: A new district.

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Speaker 2: I spent like a lot of time getting to know

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Speaker 2: like a thirty percent of my population.

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Speaker 3: Why the hell do I have to do it again?

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Speaker 2: And like you know so, but but no, there's the

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Speaker 2: institution I think institutionalism has been supplanted or replaced in

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Speaker 2: many respects by fealty to Trump.

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Speaker 1: So Dave Schweikert now wants to run for governor, broy

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Speaker 1: went to run for attorney general. I got to think

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Speaker 1: the next couple, you know, we've you know, Ashley Henson

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Speaker 1: now obviously a seat opened up. She jumped at that.

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Speaker 1: And this is the month, right, The next three to

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Speaker 1: six weeks are sort of you know, with maybe one

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Speaker 1: or two more at the end of the calendar year.

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Speaker 1: But the next three to six weeks are sort of

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Speaker 1: the last of the retirements or moving, you know, deciding

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Speaker 1: to jump to another race. Should we expect a mini

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Speaker 1: flurry here, because because of the everything we just discussed. Boy,

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Speaker 1: that's redistrict. I have no idea at least a statewide

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Speaker 1: electorate that can't get remapped, you know, all of those things.

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Speaker 1: Should we expect more of this?

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Speaker 3: Maybe?

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Speaker 2: But listen, some of these filing deadlines are going to

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Speaker 2: creep up. And here here's I say. In Texas, I

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Speaker 2: don't think we've seen the endles me put it this way,

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Speaker 2: I don't know that we've seen the end of who

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Speaker 2: might get into.

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Speaker 3: That Senate race.

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Speaker 2: I can tell you that there are lots of talks

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Speaker 2: about whether as le Hunt will get in, and there

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Speaker 2: are some other members who might look at their district

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Speaker 2: and say, this is my time to go for it

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Speaker 2: in a messy primary between John Cornyn and Ken Paxton.

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Speaker 2: But I don't see anyone else. I mean, Byron Donalds

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Speaker 2: is running for governor of Florida. I don't see anyone else,

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Speaker 2: no one that comes to mind.

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Speaker 3: But it sure as hell looks.

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Speaker 2: Like a a good, good opportunity to get into a

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Speaker 2: statewide race and get out of the mess of Congress.

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Speaker 1: I mean the Schweikertz. It didn't shock me at all

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Speaker 1: like that. Dude's always in a swing district, so yeah,

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Speaker 1: what you got to raise the same amount of money

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Speaker 1: might as well. And the incumbent governor in Arizona looks

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Speaker 1: quite peatable. You know. Question is is he trumpy enough

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Speaker 1: to win a primary.

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Speaker 2: I don't think he does it in the end, to

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Speaker 2: be honest with you, I think he eventually he told

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Speaker 2: us that he would run for.

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Speaker 3: The House if he if he decides to not run

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Speaker 3: for governor, So maybe he.

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Speaker 2: Shadow I think Trump I some gavel he wants. I

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Speaker 2: just think Trump won't want him to run for governor.

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Speaker 2: I think that that's the end of it, basically on Cornyn.

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Speaker 1: Here's what it's looked like from Afar, And I'm curious

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Speaker 1: if this, if this sort of rings true to you,

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Speaker 1: which is Cornn has basically bought himself time from Fune

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Speaker 1: in the White House. Give me, give me the Thanksgiving

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Speaker 1: to proof packs I can beat Paxton and or then

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Speaker 1: I'll reassess, like I'm not one hundred percent convinced corn

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Speaker 1: Files in December. I'm just not there. But but it

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Speaker 1: does feel and the early attempts to sort of muddy

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Speaker 1: him up now and look, it's an early primary. It's

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Speaker 1: a March primary in Texas. So I get it that

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Speaker 1: you got to you got to sort of start early,

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Speaker 1: but this almost feels like he's trying to prove he

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Speaker 1: can win now or they get out of the way

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Speaker 1: for a better candidate.

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Speaker 4: I mean, I think he has proved he can win now.

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Speaker 4: I mean he's down double digits.

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Speaker 1: I don't know em and Emerson poll is never something

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Speaker 1: that convinces me of anything.

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Speaker 4: But I think, like he I have said, this is

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Speaker 4: more like I'm like, races are about money and momentum,

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Speaker 4: and Cornyn has no momentum, has not because and now

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Speaker 4: he started to see the polls move and tighten and

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Speaker 4: some of the private polling come and which is what

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Speaker 4: he needed to be able to convince people to continue

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Speaker 4: to pour money into this race.

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Speaker 1: Right.

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Speaker 4: I think he's doing exactly what he has to do.

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Speaker 4: The big question I think is when his pass to

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Speaker 4: start punching back right like, that's me.

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Speaker 3: It has to be.

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Speaker 2: Soon, and as one hundred percent right here, I don't listen.

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Speaker 2: There's a lot of people who have wondered whether he'll actually.

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Speaker 3: Get into the race.

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Speaker 2: I think that's a fair that's a fair thing to

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Speaker 2: think about. We were told basically that he has until

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Speaker 2: December to kind of get those numbers.

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Speaker 3: Up a little bit and show that he's competitive. He

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Speaker 3: has done that.

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Speaker 2: I mean we reported, God, I don't remember what date

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Speaker 2: it is. Maybe it was Monday, maybe it was today.

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Speaker 3: I think it was Monday that.

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Speaker 2: H SLF poll had him between eight and ten down,

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Speaker 2: which is better than seventeen down. I think he is

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Speaker 2: showing that millions of dollars of ads can close the gap.

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Speaker 2: They're going to have to spend tens of I think

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Speaker 2: they said seventy million between now and the end of

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Speaker 2: the year to try to get him to win. If

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Speaker 2: they can't do it by the end of the by

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Speaker 2: by that filing deadline, which is again you said, coming

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Speaker 2: up in December, he's not going to be able to

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Speaker 2: do it, and people are going to stop giving him money.

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Speaker 2: And if Paxson's the nominee, it's going to cost SLF

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Speaker 2: and the NRSC and donors two hundred million dollars to

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Speaker 2: keep this race. And I think that I just want

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Speaker 2: to add this. I've said this on our podcast before,

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Speaker 2: so and has heard this. The nightmare scenario for Republicans

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Speaker 2: is that Paxson's nominee and all these seats are red

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Speaker 2: drawn and some of them are less Republican, and then

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Speaker 2: you start seeing R plus eights and R plus ten's

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Speaker 2: become competitive for Democrats, and Dems have huge turnouts, and

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Speaker 2: then you're spending millions and millions of dollars on house

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Speaker 2: races in Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, Austin, the UH the.

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Speaker 1: Three of the fifteen basically three of the fifteen most

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Speaker 1: expensive markets in the country. That's all you had to say, right,

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Speaker 1: three of the most yeah, yeah.

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Speaker 2: And which by the way, there's all. There's already going

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Speaker 2: to be a Senate race, is already going to be

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Speaker 2: an AG race. There's going to be House races, many

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Speaker 2: house races.

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Speaker 1: And I don't rule out of governor's race that gets

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Speaker 1: competitive if tall Rico gets tucked in the governor instead

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Speaker 1: of Senate, right, could be you know.

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Speaker 3: I listen, I've been hearing Texas and going blue.

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Speaker 2: Oh, I know, I'm with you there, I'm with you.

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Speaker 1: Let's talk about the democratic side of things. I uh,

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Speaker 1: I made a contention in my substack this week that

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Speaker 1: I just sort of you know, and I don't even

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Speaker 1: know if it's good or bad politics for them, But

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Speaker 1: I don't see a scenario where Democrats work with congressional

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Speaker 1: Republicans to avoid a shutdown. I don't see the incentive, right,

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Speaker 1: you know, this is always what are the incentives, what's

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Speaker 1: the incentives to cut a deal, what's the incentives to fight?

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Speaker 1: It seems like most of the incentives for Jeffries and

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Speaker 1: Schumer are to fight, not to work with them. And

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Speaker 1: I don't see any evidence that Republicans are trying to

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Speaker 1: avoid this. But Jake, you're the seer on this on

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Speaker 1: the shutdown scenarios, and maybe we don't get our shutdown

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Speaker 1: until early January rather than because maybe they punt crs, etc.

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Speaker 1: But you tell me, I just don't see outside of

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Speaker 1: John Fetterman, who I think doesn't want to engage in this,

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Speaker 1: I see a Democratic Party with a base that's desperate

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Speaker 1: to fight. And watching the redistricting thing with Newsome unfold

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Speaker 1: over the month of August sort of reinforced this notion

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Speaker 1: to me that I think Schumer and Jeffries have to

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Speaker 1: get caught fighting. I agree.

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Speaker 2: The only scenario that I see that that would have

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Speaker 2: Democrats participate is if it's truly just a clean CR

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Speaker 2: and even that you can make the argument that it's

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Speaker 2: out of their interest to participate in that, especially after

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Speaker 2: Aine a nine billion dollar congressional recision plus a pocket

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Speaker 2: recision of five billion dollars.

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Speaker 3: It's just poken Dems in the eye.

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Speaker 2: The White House wants a ACR until sometime next year,

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Speaker 2: as we reported in the Savasion, So that's not in

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Speaker 2: line with where most House and Senate Republicans are, at.

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Speaker 3: Least from what we could see.

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Speaker 1: What do they want?

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Speaker 2: They want to do November ish and then kind of

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Speaker 2: try to put together a larger package I see big

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Speaker 2: peril in that too. Johnson doesn't want a minibus or

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Speaker 2: an on the bus, and neither does neither do a

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Speaker 2: lot of people. To be honest with the senators, some

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Speaker 2: senators in some House members, they want their earmarks. But listen, Democrats,

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Speaker 2: this is, as An I put it the other day

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Speaker 2: on our podcast, this is their moment to fight. And

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Speaker 2: if they're not going to do it, now, when are

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Speaker 2: they going to do it? And I mean, she's right

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Speaker 2: on that. She'd wrote on a lot of things, but

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Speaker 2: that was one of the things she was right now.

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Speaker 4: I think it's important because I think, like three months ago,

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Speaker 4: I thought they would definitely fight, like you felt it,

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Speaker 4: like the feeling was that they needed to, and then

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Speaker 4: kind of the August time, everything kind of cooled off

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Speaker 4: a little bit. They're coming back. I think the biggest

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Speaker 4: thing is the fear when I'm attacking to Democrats is okay,

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Speaker 4: let's say we fight. The base is excited about this,

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Speaker 4: but as you're dealing with an administration that you don't

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Speaker 4: know what their next move is going to be, they

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Speaker 4: might say, hey, shutdown's great, because you know what, we

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Speaker 4: don't think any of these agencies need to be funded anyway, right,

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Speaker 4: Like you darn't dealing with an actor where they can

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Speaker 4: figure out, okay, we shut down the government, we get

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Speaker 4: the political win. But how we're going to get out

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Speaker 4: of it? And I think that, to me is the

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Speaker 4: question for Schumer and for I think especially for Senate Democrats,

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Speaker 4: because they have historically said we need to be the adults,

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Speaker 4: we need to be the people that are I mean,

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Speaker 4: we're in different times. I'm not saying that's the right

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Speaker 4: strategy anymore, but it would be a different posture for

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Speaker 4: him in particular.

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Speaker 1: Oh and the whole adult I mean, you know, I

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Speaker 1: considered myself a voter of adult, you know, looking for

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Speaker 1: the adult in the room in every race I go for.

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Speaker 1: And now it's like, I don't think they're going to

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Speaker 1: be I have to decide which children, which children's table

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Speaker 1: that you end up going to. But you know, it's

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Speaker 1: interesting it is for that reason that Trump's unpredictable that

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Speaker 1: to me actually makes there's downside to cutting a deal

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Speaker 1: and letting them have control of government, right like, look at.

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Speaker 3: What happens also downside and shutting the government.

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Speaker 1: Check is there? It all depends on how they frame

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Speaker 1: the fight. So Anna if it seems that the best leverage,

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Speaker 1: as far as the public would understand, would be Obamacare subsidies, right,

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Speaker 1: they expire, Like, if if you're going to do this,

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Speaker 1: you have to have you have to have an ask

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Speaker 1: that seems semi realistic, and Obamacare subsidies feel semi realistic.

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Speaker 1: I could also say, if you really want to make them,

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Speaker 1: we'll talk about this in a minute, really feel pain,

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Speaker 1: go make Republicans vote on tariffs. But I want to

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Speaker 1: punt that question here for a second. It's Obamacare subsidies.

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Speaker 1: What else could they have that maybe Republicans would concede

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Speaker 1: or the White House would do that would allow them

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Speaker 1: to stand for something and be careful.

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Speaker 4: The Republicans might say, Okay, I think the easiest answer

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Speaker 4: is often has the best answer, right, and you just

438
00:21:29,119 --> 00:21:31,280
Speaker 4: laid it out. I mean, if you're Democrats, what have

439
00:21:31,320 --> 00:21:34,240
Speaker 4: they won over the last since Obamacare past? But where

440
00:21:34,240 --> 00:21:37,359
Speaker 4: have they beat Republicans? Every single time? It has always

441
00:21:37,400 --> 00:21:40,199
Speaker 4: been on healthcare. And I think you saw this in

442
00:21:40,280 --> 00:21:41,800
Speaker 4: terms of even what they were trying to do with

443
00:21:42,359 --> 00:21:45,159
Speaker 4: the tax bill early earlier this year. So if you're Democrats,

444
00:21:45,240 --> 00:21:48,480
Speaker 4: it's something that people understand. It's personal tariffs. Is something

445
00:21:48,520 --> 00:21:51,040
Speaker 4: that I don't think most Americans even understand how it works.

446
00:21:51,280 --> 00:21:53,240
Speaker 4: Like I truly like you know, like I don't think

447
00:21:53,280 --> 00:21:55,840
Speaker 4: you're like, Okay, we're standing on the tariff thing, even

448
00:21:55,880 --> 00:21:58,480
Speaker 4: though people say, well, either new these tariffs for six months,

449
00:21:58,600 --> 00:22:01,600
Speaker 4: nine months and no one has at any change. Really, yeah,

450
00:22:01,640 --> 00:22:04,520
Speaker 4: it's coming, it's coming, the economists say. But I think

451
00:22:04,520 --> 00:22:07,280
Speaker 4: that's hard to play at your hometown, you know, kind

452
00:22:07,280 --> 00:22:09,560
Speaker 4: of rally that it's all about tariffs. I think it's

453
00:22:09,560 --> 00:22:12,200
Speaker 4: about I think when you look at healthcare, it makes

454
00:22:12,240 --> 00:22:14,920
Speaker 4: a lot more sense, And I think it puts Republicans

455
00:22:14,920 --> 00:22:17,679
Speaker 4: because there's already been some senators center Republicans who say, hey,

456
00:22:17,760 --> 00:22:20,000
Speaker 4: actually we do need to figure this out, right, like

457
00:22:20,200 --> 00:22:23,640
Speaker 4: there's some cracks in the wall there when it comes

458
00:22:23,680 --> 00:22:26,640
Speaker 4: to Republicans on that issue, much more so privately, when

459
00:22:26,720 --> 00:22:29,160
Speaker 4: publicans say these tariffs things are terrible, I think you'd

460
00:22:29,160 --> 00:22:31,200
Speaker 4: see a lot of Republicans say they roll their eyes

461
00:22:31,240 --> 00:22:32,760
Speaker 4: at them. It's not what they what they think is

462
00:22:32,800 --> 00:22:35,520
Speaker 4: good politics. But I think healthcare is a lot more

463
00:22:35,560 --> 00:22:36,720
Speaker 4: of a salient topic.

464
00:22:36,760 --> 00:22:39,200
Speaker 2: Book, Chuck, Can I say something else, which is one

465
00:22:39,240 --> 00:22:42,000
Speaker 2: other thing? I agree with everything Anna said. I do

466
00:22:42,080 --> 00:22:48,320
Speaker 2: have questions about whether a CR can carry politically the

467
00:22:48,400 --> 00:22:52,080
Speaker 2: weight of those premium tax credits. I think it's tough,

468
00:22:52,200 --> 00:22:55,679
Speaker 2: but I don't think it's undoable. The White House is

469
00:22:55,720 --> 00:22:58,000
Speaker 2: not engaged on this topic from what I could not,

470
00:22:58,040 --> 00:22:59,800
Speaker 2: from what I could tell from my conversation with them.

471
00:22:59,800 --> 00:23:01,840
Speaker 2: So but let me add one more thing. The risk

472
00:23:01,880 --> 00:23:04,800
Speaker 2: in shutting down the government if you're a Democrat is

473
00:23:04,840 --> 00:23:06,800
Speaker 2: as follows. How do you get out of it?

474
00:23:08,000 --> 00:23:08,320
Speaker 3: Now?

475
00:23:09,160 --> 00:23:13,640
Speaker 2: A realistic ask? Sure, Obamacare tax credits are a realistic ask.

476
00:23:13,800 --> 00:23:16,960
Speaker 2: And as my colleague Indredy scenario is reported now for

477
00:23:17,400 --> 00:23:20,360
Speaker 2: weeks now, they want to make healthcare this big thing

478
00:23:20,400 --> 00:23:22,840
Speaker 2: in the twenty twenty in the shutdown fight in the

479
00:23:22,840 --> 00:23:23,960
Speaker 2: twenty twenty six elections.

480
00:23:23,960 --> 00:23:24,440
Speaker 3: I get that.

481
00:23:24,800 --> 00:23:27,560
Speaker 2: But if you get into a shutdown, Donald Trump is

482
00:23:27,600 --> 00:23:30,439
Speaker 2: going to say we tried to offer Democrats a clean CR,

483
00:23:31,040 --> 00:23:34,120
Speaker 2: no funny business, and they shut down the government. Now,

484
00:23:34,119 --> 00:23:36,680
Speaker 2: Trump has a horrible history with government shutdowns. He screwed

485
00:23:36,760 --> 00:23:39,720
Speaker 2: up the last one more than anybody can could imagine.

486
00:23:39,760 --> 00:23:42,359
Speaker 2: I mean, he got out of it for nothing after

487
00:23:42,400 --> 00:23:46,600
Speaker 2: he caused the shutdown. The shutdown was him. So you

488
00:23:46,640 --> 00:23:50,160
Speaker 2: know Trump's as we were talking about unpredictability is unpredictability

489
00:23:50,800 --> 00:23:55,280
Speaker 2: on a shutdown is a real risk for Democrats because

490
00:23:55,280 --> 00:23:56,439
Speaker 2: they don't know what he's going to do.

491
00:23:56,520 --> 00:23:57,840
Speaker 3: They don't know how he's going to handle it.

492
00:23:57,880 --> 00:23:59,399
Speaker 2: They don't know how he is going to make a

493
00:23:59,400 --> 00:24:04,040
Speaker 2: shutdown painful for Democrats. And Obama and Chuck you remember this, Anna,

494
00:24:04,080 --> 00:24:07,480
Speaker 2: you remember it too. Obama made it real painful for

495
00:24:07,600 --> 00:24:10,440
Speaker 2: Republicans in the first shutdown under John Bayner. And I'm

496
00:24:10,440 --> 00:24:12,840
Speaker 2: sorry for my buzzy or I'm in the Capitol where

497
00:24:12,840 --> 00:24:15,040
Speaker 2: they're telling us some sort of something.

498
00:24:15,240 --> 00:24:17,320
Speaker 3: House is back. It's it's time for the House to

499
00:24:17,320 --> 00:24:17,960
Speaker 3: come back to work.

500
00:24:18,880 --> 00:24:21,280
Speaker 2: So you know, there are ways that the White House

501
00:24:21,280 --> 00:24:23,520
Speaker 2: can make this very very very painful, and they are

502
00:24:23,560 --> 00:24:24,159
Speaker 2: going to do that.

503
00:24:24,720 --> 00:24:26,760
Speaker 1: You know though, I was just thinking about something, Anna.

504
00:24:26,800 --> 00:24:31,280
Speaker 1: You know, we've none of us have ever covered Democrats

505
00:24:31,280 --> 00:24:34,560
Speaker 1: in the minority causing a shutdown. I mean we've just

506
00:24:34,600 --> 00:24:37,560
Speaker 1: never seen it. It's never it's never happened. I guess

507
00:24:37,600 --> 00:24:41,119
Speaker 1: it came close in the Reagan era, but that's before

508
00:24:41,400 --> 00:24:45,200
Speaker 1: that's before my professional time, per se. But this would

509
00:24:45,240 --> 00:24:48,920
Speaker 1: be This is why all of it's unpredictable, right, because

510
00:24:48,920 --> 00:24:52,880
Speaker 1: we know Democrats want government to work. And how how

511
00:24:54,160 --> 00:24:57,639
Speaker 1: I you know, would seven Democratic senators cave? What do

512
00:24:57,680 --> 00:24:59,919
Speaker 1: we think the answer is? Of course?

513
00:25:00,240 --> 00:25:00,400
Speaker 2: Right?

514
00:25:01,160 --> 00:25:03,280
Speaker 4: I mean I also think the biggest thing that we're

515
00:25:03,320 --> 00:25:05,439
Speaker 4: watching here, I think is just going to be really

516
00:25:05,760 --> 00:25:08,040
Speaker 4: I think Chuck Schumer to me is the most fascinating

517
00:25:08,040 --> 00:25:10,359
Speaker 4: person to watch in this whole thing, because he clearly

518
00:25:10,400 --> 00:25:13,320
Speaker 4: got where he in this last government funding where they

519
00:25:15,160 --> 00:25:18,400
Speaker 4: allowed for it to go forward. He and Jeffreys were

520
00:25:18,400 --> 00:25:20,760
Speaker 4: in different places and he got kicked in the teeth

521
00:25:20,880 --> 00:25:22,000
Speaker 4: for it, right, And.

522
00:25:21,960 --> 00:25:26,640
Speaker 1: So these numbers are rivaling McConnell's now nationally like he's

523
00:25:26,680 --> 00:25:28,560
Speaker 1: got name ID and it's all bad. Yeah.

524
00:25:28,640 --> 00:25:30,479
Speaker 4: I mean, so if you were Chuck Schumer, you are

525
00:25:30,520 --> 00:25:33,080
Speaker 4: trying to align yourself as closely as possible to Jeffries

526
00:25:33,160 --> 00:25:36,320
Speaker 4: to deflect any possible blame for this. And I think

527
00:25:36,440 --> 00:25:38,520
Speaker 4: you know they know that, right, I mean, they know

528
00:25:38,760 --> 00:25:41,920
Speaker 4: they don't have a lot of andy they historically do

529
00:25:41,920 --> 00:25:43,919
Speaker 4: you say me, like Democrats want to fund the government.

530
00:25:43,960 --> 00:25:46,480
Speaker 4: They want more government programs. They believe that that is

531
00:25:46,800 --> 00:25:49,960
Speaker 4: inherently important for people to get their Social Security checks

532
00:25:49,960 --> 00:25:52,560
Speaker 4: and all the other things. And for them to say, okay,

533
00:25:52,600 --> 00:25:56,200
Speaker 4: well now is the time to fight. Yeah, I think

534
00:25:56,200 --> 00:25:58,520
Speaker 4: it could could be tough. And I think going on

535
00:25:58,560 --> 00:26:01,320
Speaker 4: that in terms of like, okay, the Trump people saying

536
00:26:01,320 --> 00:26:03,239
Speaker 4: like we said a clean cr and you wouldn't do it,

537
00:26:03,280 --> 00:26:04,919
Speaker 4: like they can't seem unreasonable.

538
00:26:05,400 --> 00:26:07,600
Speaker 1: You know, the voters always get to say. And there's

539
00:26:07,640 --> 00:26:12,680
Speaker 1: two actual sort of an election night this year could

540
00:26:12,720 --> 00:26:15,480
Speaker 1: have some impact if like one party has a better

541
00:26:15,600 --> 00:26:19,119
Speaker 1: night than expected or vice versa. You know you've got

542
00:26:19,280 --> 00:26:21,280
Speaker 1: you know, I find New Jersey governor to be I

543
00:26:21,320 --> 00:26:24,359
Speaker 1: think a very under the radar, underrated race, and I

544
00:26:24,359 --> 00:26:26,159
Speaker 1: think people need to pay more and more intention to

545
00:26:26,200 --> 00:26:28,120
Speaker 1: it every second of the day. And then, of course

546
00:26:28,160 --> 00:26:32,560
Speaker 1: there's a referendum in California now, which becomes not just

547
00:26:32,640 --> 00:26:35,800
Speaker 1: make or break for Gavin Newsom's future, but make or break,

548
00:26:36,240 --> 00:26:42,800
Speaker 1: you know A And I'm curious, Jake, if Newsom loses

549
00:26:42,840 --> 00:26:46,000
Speaker 1: the referendum, right, it's a real punch in the gut

550
00:26:46,040 --> 00:26:49,840
Speaker 1: to Democrats. Does that increase the need to fight on

551
00:26:49,880 --> 00:26:52,400
Speaker 1: Capitol Hill or does that create more capitulation?

552
00:26:53,200 --> 00:26:55,320
Speaker 2: You know, Chuck, I just said to our I could

553
00:26:55,320 --> 00:26:57,720
Speaker 2: show you in my notes from yesterday. I just send

554
00:26:57,800 --> 00:27:01,160
Speaker 2: to my team here. I have a note in here,

555
00:27:02,160 --> 00:27:04,080
Speaker 2: what if Newsome loses.

556
00:27:04,760 --> 00:27:05,880
Speaker 3: Well, I think it.

557
00:27:06,000 --> 00:27:08,600
Speaker 1: Charlie Munger, you know, a buddy just to just to

558
00:27:08,640 --> 00:27:10,840
Speaker 1: just to put a finer point on this. You know,

559
00:27:10,920 --> 00:27:14,000
Speaker 1: normally the Republicans are always behind when it comes to

560
00:27:14,040 --> 00:27:17,720
Speaker 1: anything California. But you know, I was talking to a

561
00:27:17,720 --> 00:27:19,879
Speaker 1: good source of mine last week and he goes, hey,

562
00:27:19,920 --> 00:27:22,480
Speaker 1: I've already got three mailers from the no campaign. The

563
00:27:22,600 --> 00:27:26,880
Speaker 1: yes campaign hasn't even begun. Charlie Munger Junior, whose father

564
00:27:27,000 --> 00:27:31,119
Speaker 1: famously was the partner. Late father just passed away. By

565
00:27:31,160 --> 00:27:33,280
Speaker 1: the way, if you ever go down rabbit holes, Charlie

566
00:27:33,320 --> 00:27:38,480
Speaker 1: Munger Senior sayings are just fantastic. Yes, a hearing yester

567
00:27:38,480 --> 00:27:41,000
Speaker 1: of Bufferen's old partner. But Charlie Munger Junior, this was

568
00:27:41,040 --> 00:27:44,520
Speaker 1: his baby. He created, He funded this redistricting commission. You know,

569
00:27:44,680 --> 00:27:46,880
Speaker 1: Arnold was the face, but he was the money behind it,

570
00:27:47,200 --> 00:27:51,639
Speaker 1: and he was He's it's real and whether in you know,

571
00:27:52,320 --> 00:27:55,800
Speaker 1: and they are already spending money. It's going to be

572
00:27:55,880 --> 00:27:59,960
Speaker 1: a close referendum. This isn't a slam dunk for Newsom.

573
00:28:00,040 --> 00:28:03,520
Speaker 2: The polling that we've seen. I think Politico had a

574
00:28:03,560 --> 00:28:08,800
Speaker 2: poll that had uh that had it at fifty three percent.

575
00:28:09,440 --> 00:28:13,960
Speaker 2: Yes Now, the rule of thumb with these and I

576
00:28:14,000 --> 00:28:16,960
Speaker 2: don't I have I don't, I haven't covered many of these,

577
00:28:17,000 --> 00:28:18,879
Speaker 2: So I'm just going off of what smart people have

578
00:28:18,920 --> 00:28:21,200
Speaker 2: said on both sides of the aisle is that rarely

579
00:28:21,280 --> 00:28:23,880
Speaker 2: do these things get better. If they start at fifty three,

580
00:28:23,880 --> 00:28:27,240
Speaker 2: they are probably only going down that puts So that's

581
00:28:27,240 --> 00:28:29,080
Speaker 2: a real risk for Gavin Newsom.

582
00:28:29,480 --> 00:28:34,240
Speaker 3: So uh, that would be a big, a big gut punch.

583
00:28:34,320 --> 00:28:36,399
Speaker 2: But you know, I had a Republican say to me

584
00:28:36,440 --> 00:28:39,520
Speaker 2: the other day, if they make this about Trump versus Democrats,

585
00:28:39,880 --> 00:28:43,640
Speaker 2: yes can win. If this is about equity and fairness

586
00:28:43,920 --> 00:28:46,720
Speaker 2: and you add this system and Gavin Newsom is trying

587
00:28:46,760 --> 00:28:50,520
Speaker 2: to strip it away from you, then it's not It's

588
00:28:50,560 --> 00:28:52,120
Speaker 2: not a winning message for Yes.

589
00:28:52,600 --> 00:28:55,320
Speaker 3: Now, I will also just add, for for.

590
00:28:57,400 --> 00:29:02,239
Speaker 2: Accuracy's sake, that this system has benefited Republicans in a

591
00:29:02,280 --> 00:29:06,480
Speaker 2: major way compared to the old system, which basically had

592
00:29:06,760 --> 00:29:10,560
Speaker 2: was the epitome of back room deal making in California

593
00:29:10,600 --> 00:29:13,800
Speaker 2: where Howard Berman, the former congressman and his brother basically

594
00:29:13,920 --> 00:29:18,640
Speaker 2: drew the maps. You know, Republicans have had like maybe

595
00:29:18,680 --> 00:29:20,560
Speaker 2: not as good of a decade as decade or two

596
00:29:20,640 --> 00:29:23,720
Speaker 2: decades as they should have in California. But they've had

597
00:29:23,720 --> 00:29:26,479
Speaker 2: a real good two decades. I mean, they've picked up

598
00:29:26,520 --> 00:29:29,520
Speaker 2: seats in places they probably would I would.

599
00:29:29,400 --> 00:29:33,320
Speaker 1: Argue Kevin McCarthy had good relationships with California Democrats that

600
00:29:33,400 --> 00:29:35,600
Speaker 1: go back to his old legislative days for sure, and

601
00:29:36,240 --> 00:29:38,200
Speaker 1: he was able to play the card that said, hey,

602
00:29:38,800 --> 00:29:40,640
Speaker 1: you know, you don't want to screw me too badly

603
00:29:40,680 --> 00:29:43,440
Speaker 1: here I'm going to be bringing money to California to

604
00:29:43,520 --> 00:29:45,800
Speaker 1: it and you know, that's the way politics used to

605
00:29:45,880 --> 00:29:48,160
Speaker 1: work in the States. There'd always be kind of a

606
00:29:49,320 --> 00:29:52,760
Speaker 1: nod to a member of the quote minority party if

607
00:29:52,800 --> 00:29:54,040
Speaker 1: they had juice in Washington.

608
00:29:54,440 --> 00:29:57,040
Speaker 2: But they also I'll also add add to that that

609
00:29:58,240 --> 00:30:00,720
Speaker 2: because of his because of where mccar arth he was from,

610
00:30:01,000 --> 00:30:03,440
Speaker 2: Kevin ended up putting a lot of money into California

611
00:30:04,360 --> 00:30:09,400
Speaker 2: and really funded to a large degree a lot of

612
00:30:09,720 --> 00:30:12,160
Speaker 2: you know, did mailers for the California Republican Party out

613
00:30:12,200 --> 00:30:15,920
Speaker 2: of his pocket, spend millions in television advertisement. I mean,

614
00:30:15,960 --> 00:30:20,160
Speaker 2: he really focused on California as an untapped area for Republicans.

615
00:30:20,840 --> 00:30:23,120
Speaker 1: So Anna Jake didn't answer that, what would how would

616
00:30:23,120 --> 00:30:25,800
Speaker 1: Democrats on Capitol Responsorry? That's all right, I'm just giving

617
00:30:25,840 --> 00:30:28,280
Speaker 1: you a hard time because we both nerded out there

618
00:30:28,280 --> 00:30:32,160
Speaker 1: in California. But would that I mean, I guess I

619
00:30:32,160 --> 00:30:35,000
Speaker 1: could argue either way, But what would be your instinct?

620
00:30:35,040 --> 00:30:40,240
Speaker 1: Would it make congressional Democrats deflated and less into the

621
00:30:40,240 --> 00:30:43,280
Speaker 1: fight or more anxious to find somewhere else to push back?

622
00:30:44,000 --> 00:30:46,120
Speaker 4: I mean, a loss is a loss is a gut punch, right.

623
00:30:46,160 --> 00:30:48,160
Speaker 4: I mean, I think if you look at Democrats were

624
00:30:48,160 --> 00:30:50,600
Speaker 4: still trying to figure out what happened in the last election, right,

625
00:30:50,640 --> 00:30:53,160
Speaker 4: I mean, what the lessons are? What is the message

626
00:30:53,160 --> 00:30:54,840
Speaker 4: supposed to be? What are our issues going to be?

627
00:30:54,960 --> 00:30:57,400
Speaker 4: If they can't win on this, and then the message

628
00:30:57,440 --> 00:31:00,640
Speaker 4: is what Jake said, it's anti Trump, it's Trump versus

629
00:31:00,720 --> 00:31:04,080
Speaker 4: you know, the opposite. And you're still losing, Like you're

630
00:31:04,080 --> 00:31:06,360
Speaker 4: gonna go onlock your wounds and say, like what about

631
00:31:06,400 --> 00:31:09,200
Speaker 4: my reelection. I'm not worried about just majority, but like,

632
00:31:09,440 --> 00:31:12,680
Speaker 4: if we can't win in California, where can we win?

633
00:31:13,160 --> 00:31:16,080
Speaker 1: So then it becomes you think you're what you're describing

634
00:31:16,320 --> 00:31:19,840
Speaker 1: is sort of survive that everybody goes into survival mode.

635
00:31:20,280 --> 00:31:23,000
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, there's no national there's no leader of

636
00:31:23,080 --> 00:31:25,360
Speaker 4: the party right now, there's no unified message. There's no

637
00:31:25,640 --> 00:31:27,240
Speaker 4: we think this is how what is going to be

638
00:31:27,320 --> 00:31:29,720
Speaker 4: the issue that's going to you know, win the day

639
00:31:29,720 --> 00:31:31,720
Speaker 4: in the mid terms, right, I mean, like Democrats basically

640
00:31:31,760 --> 00:31:34,040
Speaker 4: they thought it was women's rights and abortion and that

641
00:31:34,080 --> 00:31:36,600
Speaker 4: didn't work the last time. You know, they'd run on

642
00:31:36,640 --> 00:31:39,120
Speaker 4: healthcare and the anti Trump stuff, and I think you

643
00:31:39,240 --> 00:31:43,800
Speaker 4: just democrats. You could pull ten Democrats from across the

644
00:31:43,800 --> 00:31:45,880
Speaker 4: country and you get ten different messages about what they

645
00:31:45,920 --> 00:31:47,760
Speaker 4: think is the thing that's going to actually make them win.

646
00:31:48,040 --> 00:31:51,440
Speaker 1: Hey, Anna, you just brought up reproductive rights. I was

647
00:31:51,520 --> 00:31:54,160
Speaker 1: with you when you had thought a couple of years

648
00:31:54,160 --> 00:31:56,080
Speaker 1: ago that this would be something that would just become

649
00:31:56,560 --> 00:31:59,400
Speaker 1: a huge problem, that Republicans would be carrying this around

650
00:31:59,440 --> 00:32:04,960
Speaker 1: as an ankor yeah, around their ankles. Is it did

651
00:32:05,000 --> 00:32:08,840
Speaker 1: we miss something or is just Trump fogged up everything

652
00:32:09,000 --> 00:32:13,080
Speaker 1: and when the fog clears, this will probably bite them

653
00:32:13,080 --> 00:32:14,000
Speaker 1: at some point or.

654
00:32:13,960 --> 00:32:17,160
Speaker 4: No, you know, I mean I think women's rights an

655
00:32:17,200 --> 00:32:19,720
Speaker 4: abortion in particular are assailing issue. We saw play in

656
00:32:20,040 --> 00:32:21,880
Speaker 4: a lot of state state wide races right in the

657
00:32:21,960 --> 00:32:24,640
Speaker 4: last election. That wasn't that was the issue that Democrats

658
00:32:24,720 --> 00:32:26,840
Speaker 4: really hanging there had and that that was where the

659
00:32:26,960 --> 00:32:28,960
Speaker 4: energy was that the turnout was going to be women

660
00:32:29,200 --> 00:32:31,720
Speaker 4: and others that were really energized about this. I think

661
00:32:32,240 --> 00:32:36,000
Speaker 4: you had COVID, you had the economy, you had the

662
00:32:36,160 --> 00:32:38,000
Speaker 4: late you know. I mean you can think about the

663
00:32:38,040 --> 00:32:40,920
Speaker 4: moudding of the waters of Democrats and dropping out late,

664
00:32:41,080 --> 00:32:43,440
Speaker 4: right like, I mean, there's just a lot of things.

665
00:32:43,640 --> 00:32:47,760
Speaker 4: And frankly, I think the Republican messaging on crime, which

666
00:32:47,880 --> 00:32:50,400
Speaker 4: for two cycles before hadn't worked and finally did work

667
00:32:50,440 --> 00:32:54,520
Speaker 4: this time, right Like, there were just counterveiling pressures that

668
00:32:54,720 --> 00:32:57,800
Speaker 4: I still think is this long term salient issue. I mean,

669
00:32:57,840 --> 00:33:00,760
Speaker 4: we'll see does gay marriage get back on to you know,

670
00:33:00,880 --> 00:33:02,640
Speaker 4: is that and become a national issue again in a

671
00:33:02,640 --> 00:33:05,080
Speaker 4: way that it's no longer has felt like it hasn't

672
00:33:05,120 --> 00:33:07,600
Speaker 4: been an issue because it was kind of done and

673
00:33:07,640 --> 00:33:09,320
Speaker 4: then the president was that and now you start to

674
00:33:09,320 --> 00:33:11,640
Speaker 4: see some bubbling up of whether that's going to become

675
00:33:11,800 --> 00:33:14,680
Speaker 4: So some of these culture issues that were you know,

676
00:33:14,760 --> 00:33:17,440
Speaker 4: kind of favor Republicans favored Democrats and maybe we see

677
00:33:17,440 --> 00:33:19,120
Speaker 4: the pendulum swing back and forth a little bit.

678
00:33:19,720 --> 00:33:23,800
Speaker 1: Let me pivot to tariffs and whether Congress is going

679
00:33:23,840 --> 00:33:30,080
Speaker 1: to have to respond if the courts continue to reject

680
00:33:30,480 --> 00:33:33,640
Speaker 1: the Trump administration theory of the case of the legality

681
00:33:33,800 --> 00:33:38,920
Speaker 1: of their situation. Jake is speaker. Johnson prepared to put

682
00:33:38,920 --> 00:33:42,600
Speaker 1: a vote that basically, you know, I don't want to

683
00:33:42,600 --> 00:33:45,680
Speaker 1: they codifies the power Trump believed he had with these

684
00:33:45,680 --> 00:33:48,120
Speaker 1: emergency acts, and they come up with it, they concoct

685
00:33:48,160 --> 00:33:51,440
Speaker 1: another way to do it, or they just directly give

686
00:33:51,520 --> 00:33:56,200
Speaker 1: him authority. Is that even being talked about yet?

687
00:33:56,800 --> 00:34:00,640
Speaker 3: Not yet, But that's a really good question. I listen.

688
00:34:00,680 --> 00:34:03,880
Speaker 2: But the general theory of the case with Mike Johnson

689
00:34:03,880 --> 00:34:07,800
Speaker 2: as he will he will do us asks by Trump,

690
00:34:07,880 --> 00:34:12,440
Speaker 2: and Johnson doesn't like to hear that. And his argument

691
00:34:12,600 --> 00:34:14,120
Speaker 2: is that he actually works out a lot of things

692
00:34:14,120 --> 00:34:16,319
Speaker 2: behind the scenes with Trump and they're working as a

693
00:34:16,400 --> 00:34:21,560
Speaker 2: unified party, and they're working as a unified governing apparatus

694
00:34:21,600 --> 00:34:23,920
Speaker 2: and whatever. But I mean, I think by the way,

695
00:34:23,960 --> 00:34:26,520
Speaker 2: he's right, which he no longer believes he doesn't behave

696
00:34:26,600 --> 00:34:27,080
Speaker 2: like the head of.

697
00:34:27,040 --> 00:34:29,759
Speaker 1: A legislative branch. But I'll digress. Like you know, it's

698
00:34:29,800 --> 00:34:33,640
Speaker 1: funny is that his defense actually only reinforces the notion

699
00:34:33,760 --> 00:34:36,960
Speaker 1: that he views himself as a member of the administration

700
00:34:37,680 --> 00:34:40,400
Speaker 1: almost more than he does the head of the legislator.

701
00:34:39,960 --> 00:34:41,919
Speaker 2: Brand He would argue he views himself as a leader

702
00:34:41,960 --> 00:34:44,600
Speaker 2: of the party and and they're strategizing with the White House.

703
00:34:44,600 --> 00:34:47,439
Speaker 2: But that's that wasn't the question. I don't see giving

704
00:34:47,520 --> 00:34:52,839
Speaker 2: Trump terror authority getting sixty votes in his Senate.

705
00:34:54,040 --> 00:34:54,440
Speaker 3: Opening.

706
00:34:55,040 --> 00:34:57,520
Speaker 1: So whether did you see them do an emergent like

707
00:34:57,840 --> 00:35:01,960
Speaker 1: create a new Emergencies Act if you will that, you

708
00:35:01,960 --> 00:35:04,960
Speaker 1: know what I mean? Where Look they've come up they

709
00:35:06,000 --> 00:35:08,560
Speaker 1: god bless Congress, they can come up with if you

710
00:35:08,680 --> 00:35:11,120
Speaker 1: vote no, it's a yes. If you vote yes, it's

711
00:35:11,160 --> 00:35:11,880
Speaker 1: a no, right.

712
00:35:11,760 --> 00:35:14,800
Speaker 2: One of those gambits that but that that would require

713
00:35:14,960 --> 00:35:17,680
Speaker 2: participation from Schumer, and I just don't think that's going

714
00:35:17,760 --> 00:35:20,520
Speaker 2: to happen and would at least go on and Sary.

715
00:35:20,640 --> 00:35:22,839
Speaker 4: I also think, I mean, there's one name that matters here,

716
00:35:22,920 --> 00:35:26,399
Speaker 4: John Thune. He does in a very different place than

717
00:35:26,600 --> 00:35:28,759
Speaker 4: Trump is when it comes to Tariff's and I.

718
00:35:28,680 --> 00:35:31,880
Speaker 1: Think it's not assume what bag senator isn't right, every

719
00:35:32,400 --> 00:35:32,960
Speaker 1: senator is.

720
00:35:33,080 --> 00:35:36,000
Speaker 4: You know, yeah, minorit Dakota roots are coming out here.

721
00:35:36,040 --> 00:35:38,600
Speaker 4: But I mean, I really feel like that alone. I

722
00:35:38,600 --> 00:35:41,600
Speaker 4: think in the House, yes, if if this administration really

723
00:35:41,600 --> 00:35:44,719
Speaker 4: wants uh, you know, the House Republicans to do something.

724
00:35:44,760 --> 00:35:47,319
Speaker 4: They probably will do it, but it gets much more complicated.

725
00:35:47,640 --> 00:35:49,440
Speaker 4: And I think it's always like it's one thing to

726
00:35:49,440 --> 00:35:52,399
Speaker 4: have inertia and not do something to counteract Trump. It's

727
00:35:52,440 --> 00:35:54,520
Speaker 4: another thing to say we are going to proactively take

728
00:35:54,600 --> 00:35:57,080
Speaker 4: action when it comes to tariffs.

729
00:35:56,800 --> 00:35:58,919
Speaker 1: Because this is something we could get a Supreme Court

730
00:35:59,000 --> 00:36:01,560
Speaker 1: ruling sooner than we think, and it gets thrown into

731
00:36:01,840 --> 00:36:04,319
Speaker 1: what could already be a whole bunch of michigosh on

732
00:36:04,400 --> 00:36:05,600
Speaker 1: the government funding.

733
00:36:05,719 --> 00:36:09,400
Speaker 3: Right, Yeah we could, yes, we could.

734
00:36:09,560 --> 00:36:12,640
Speaker 2: But listen, Johnson has said this week a number of

735
00:36:12,680 --> 00:36:16,439
Speaker 2: times that he sees funding as a bipartisan I mean again,

736
00:36:16,480 --> 00:36:18,479
Speaker 2: we'll see how it all works out. Well, he sees

737
00:36:18,520 --> 00:36:22,160
Speaker 2: funding as a bipartisan process, and he's not going to

738
00:36:22,239 --> 00:36:24,279
Speaker 2: throw in a bunch of wrenches and a bunch of

739
00:36:24,440 --> 00:36:26,200
Speaker 2: sand in the gears and all that stuff.

740
00:36:26,480 --> 00:36:27,360
Speaker 3: We will see.

741
00:36:27,560 --> 00:36:30,160
Speaker 2: I don't believe anything until I see it, because last

742
00:36:30,200 --> 00:36:31,480
Speaker 2: time they said it was going to be a clean

743
00:36:31,520 --> 00:36:33,840
Speaker 2: funding bill, it wasn't as clean as they purported it

744
00:36:33,880 --> 00:36:34,200
Speaker 2: would be.

745
00:36:35,560 --> 00:36:38,439
Speaker 3: And so let's let's see how that how that shakes out.

746
00:36:38,719 --> 00:36:41,000
Speaker 1: Are Jefferies and Schumer going to be at the White

747
00:36:41,040 --> 00:36:43,560
Speaker 1: House in a meeting with Trump before the I.

748
00:36:44,160 --> 00:36:46,840
Speaker 2: The White House, I as the White House does yesterday,

749
00:36:48,120 --> 00:36:50,480
Speaker 2: and they said it was a bit premature, And I

750
00:36:50,600 --> 00:36:51,640
Speaker 2: was thinking back.

751
00:36:51,400 --> 00:36:54,480
Speaker 1: To all premature if they had any sure.

752
00:36:54,480 --> 00:36:56,440
Speaker 3: I said, I said, would they do it this week?

753
00:36:56,560 --> 00:36:58,319
Speaker 2: So they said it was premature this week, but I

754
00:36:58,400 --> 00:37:02,360
Speaker 2: was thinking back to previous I think, you know, government

755
00:37:02,400 --> 00:37:04,040
Speaker 2: funding most of the time runs out at the end

756
00:37:04,080 --> 00:37:09,759
Speaker 2: of September, and usually there is a bipartisan you know,

757
00:37:09,880 --> 00:37:11,720
Speaker 2: four corners meeting at the White House at the beginning

758
00:37:11,760 --> 00:37:13,000
Speaker 2: of every September.

759
00:37:13,800 --> 00:37:16,360
Speaker 3: The President has not met with them, you know, listen.

760
00:37:16,560 --> 00:37:18,160
Speaker 1: He hadn't met with him yet, right, But.

761
00:37:18,520 --> 00:37:21,120
Speaker 4: It's backfired on him. I mean, think about the epic

762
00:37:21,200 --> 00:37:24,200
Speaker 4: photo of Pelosi leaving, right, you look at these things.

763
00:37:24,200 --> 00:37:27,000
Speaker 4: What Trump has done really well is utilize meetings to

764
00:37:27,000 --> 00:37:29,120
Speaker 4: the White House for his own party to bring sure

765
00:37:29,160 --> 00:37:31,200
Speaker 4: people off of his own party and bring them in

766
00:37:31,239 --> 00:37:33,960
Speaker 4: and then turn the votes. I think, like, you know,

767
00:37:34,719 --> 00:37:37,279
Speaker 4: you know, it's going to go poorly, right, Like him

768
00:37:37,360 --> 00:37:41,520
Speaker 4: meeting with Chuck Schumer and Jeffries does not change anything

769
00:37:41,520 --> 00:37:43,680
Speaker 4: in terms of the dynamics. It's not going to convince

770
00:37:43,680 --> 00:37:45,640
Speaker 4: them that they're all going to work together. On something.

771
00:37:46,520 --> 00:37:48,040
Speaker 4: But you know, it's like it we're part of a

772
00:37:48,080 --> 00:37:50,080
Speaker 4: play that like maybe this is the next step in

773
00:37:50,120 --> 00:37:52,000
Speaker 4: the next week and a half, but like, let's just

774
00:37:52,040 --> 00:37:54,319
Speaker 4: fast forward to what actually is meaningful, because it's not

775
00:37:54,320 --> 00:37:56,400
Speaker 4: going to be them meeting at the White House.

776
00:37:56,680 --> 00:37:59,759
Speaker 2: Jeffries has no relationship with Trump. Obviously Schumer had a

777
00:37:59,760 --> 00:38:01,959
Speaker 2: reallyationship with Trump and then then had a very bad

778
00:38:02,000 --> 00:38:04,319
Speaker 2: relationship and continue to them a bad relationship with Trump.

779
00:38:04,760 --> 00:38:07,520
Speaker 2: But listen to have Democrats win the House again, I

780
00:38:07,600 --> 00:38:10,080
Speaker 2: don't know what's going to happen. That will be a

781
00:38:10,120 --> 00:38:14,160
Speaker 2: really interesting dynamic to watch. Keem Jefferis has been unsparing

782
00:38:14,200 --> 00:38:15,600
Speaker 2: in his criticism of Donald Trump.

783
00:38:15,640 --> 00:38:17,640
Speaker 1: All right, let's talk about a couple other pain points

784
00:38:17,680 --> 00:38:23,240
Speaker 1: that will make this podcast both fresh and could spoil quickly.

785
00:38:24,239 --> 00:38:26,600
Speaker 1: And that is I want to talk Epstein and Kennedy

786
00:38:27,280 --> 00:38:29,239
Speaker 1: and I know we I think have some both of

787
00:38:29,280 --> 00:38:31,680
Speaker 1: those things might have some movement over the next day

788
00:38:31,800 --> 00:38:37,000
Speaker 1: or so, but let's talk Epstein. You know, does Trump

789
00:38:37,080 --> 00:38:40,200
Speaker 1: have the votes to prevent prevent the release or not?

790
00:38:41,000 --> 00:38:43,239
Speaker 2: I think so at this point. I hate to say it.

791
00:38:44,880 --> 00:38:47,960
Speaker 2: I hate to say and I think so. I right now,

792
00:38:48,000 --> 00:38:48,640
Speaker 2: there are.

793
00:38:48,480 --> 00:38:50,360
Speaker 1: They whip in this White House weapon hard on this.

794
00:38:50,440 --> 00:38:52,880
Speaker 3: Yeah yeah, yeah, yeah yeah, and were amazing.

795
00:38:53,080 --> 00:38:54,919
Speaker 4: I just reported though. I mean, like you know, Anna

796
00:38:54,960 --> 00:38:57,120
Speaker 4: Pauline and Luna was one of the Republicans that they

797
00:38:57,120 --> 00:38:59,360
Speaker 4: would need has said she's not going to support it.

798
00:38:59,400 --> 00:39:01,759
Speaker 4: So like you're looking for two they need two more

799
00:39:01,760 --> 00:39:03,640
Speaker 4: signatures on the Republican sign right.

800
00:39:03,680 --> 00:39:07,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, they have anapoly they have Lauren Bobert MTG. Nancy

801
00:39:07,719 --> 00:39:12,520
Speaker 2: Mason Massey. They need two more. Burlison, Luna, Ralph Norman,

802
00:39:12,760 --> 00:39:16,120
Speaker 2: Eric Burlson that is, and Keith self have all said

803
00:39:16,120 --> 00:39:20,200
Speaker 2: they will not be signing it. Victorious Sparts is someone

804
00:39:20,239 --> 00:39:22,520
Speaker 2: to watch. There's always a couple of wild cards in there.

805
00:39:23,000 --> 00:39:23,839
Speaker 3: I'll just say this.

806
00:39:24,000 --> 00:39:27,600
Speaker 2: I mean, Republicans thought this thing would would go away

807
00:39:27,640 --> 00:39:28,840
Speaker 2: after the August recess.

808
00:39:28,880 --> 00:39:29,160
Speaker 3: It's not.

809
00:39:29,239 --> 00:39:31,319
Speaker 2: I mean, there's been a there is a big press

810
00:39:31,360 --> 00:39:35,680
Speaker 2: conference with all the survivors. It is survivors of Epstein's

811
00:39:36,360 --> 00:39:42,000
Speaker 2: horrific behavior, you know, and it's not going away.

812
00:39:43,160 --> 00:39:45,799
Speaker 4: And the bigger thing is what happens on rules. I mean,

813
00:39:45,840 --> 00:39:48,640
Speaker 4: this was what ground the whole house to why they

814
00:39:48,719 --> 00:39:51,360
Speaker 4: left early. I mean, this is the dissearched position is

815
00:39:51,400 --> 00:39:54,240
Speaker 4: one thing, but they need to figure out an answer

816
00:39:54,440 --> 00:39:57,920
Speaker 4: going forward for rules, and it's hard to see what

817
00:39:57,960 --> 00:40:01,240
Speaker 4: they've done to appease the people who for the rules.

818
00:40:01,600 --> 00:40:05,880
Speaker 1: Give give, give give a quick little, uh, non Capitol

819
00:40:05,960 --> 00:40:07,279
Speaker 1: Hill explanation on what.

820
00:40:07,280 --> 00:40:10,160
Speaker 4: Happened there, Jake, you can you can't do this.

821
00:40:10,760 --> 00:40:13,400
Speaker 2: Why was the house frozen? Is basically the question that

822
00:40:13,520 --> 00:40:16,879
Speaker 2: hand listened there was there were people wouldn't vote for

823
00:40:17,560 --> 00:40:21,800
Speaker 2: procedural motions because of the Epstein because they were angry

824
00:40:21,800 --> 00:40:24,440
Speaker 2: with how Johnson was handling Epstein and froze the house floor.

825
00:40:24,520 --> 00:40:26,799
Speaker 2: They couldn't get anything moving. People are just sitting around here,

826
00:40:26,840 --> 00:40:30,560
Speaker 2: so they doesn't go home. Listen, Johnson, bills.

827
00:40:30,080 --> 00:40:32,759
Speaker 4: Have to go through rules, right, the lead design, the

828
00:40:32,840 --> 00:40:35,239
Speaker 4: rules leadership at the top level, and it goes to

829
00:40:35,360 --> 00:40:38,520
Speaker 4: rules and without rules, then they that literally.

830
00:40:38,440 --> 00:40:40,879
Speaker 1: Was who were the two wrenches? There was it Roy

831
00:40:40,920 --> 00:40:41,400
Speaker 1: and Norman.

832
00:40:42,080 --> 00:40:44,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, but more and more than that.

833
00:40:44,200 --> 00:40:47,399
Speaker 2: More than that, it was Roy and Norman basically, and

834
00:40:48,120 --> 00:40:50,160
Speaker 2: Norman got backed off a little bit, but it was

835
00:40:50,239 --> 00:40:52,480
Speaker 2: just it was it was sprouting up everywhere and it

836
00:40:52,520 --> 00:40:56,680
Speaker 2: was not a productive week for Johnson and.

837
00:40:56,640 --> 00:40:57,879
Speaker 3: Uh and he sent them home.

838
00:40:58,160 --> 00:41:01,759
Speaker 2: Now, yeah, so I'm I mean this issue is not

839
00:41:01,800 --> 00:41:06,319
Speaker 2: going away, and a discharge petitions, as we kind of

840
00:41:06,320 --> 00:41:11,759
Speaker 2: written before, is like a cry of pain that lawmakers

841
00:41:11,760 --> 00:41:13,840
Speaker 2: don't like the way the leadership is handling the floor.

842
00:41:14,360 --> 00:41:15,600
Speaker 2: And that's what we're seeing right now.

843
00:41:22,600 --> 00:41:25,359
Speaker 1: It never goes away, right if they're two signature short

844
00:41:25,360 --> 00:41:27,360
Speaker 1: for a while, then it's not as if the discharge

845
00:41:27,360 --> 00:41:32,560
Speaker 1: petition disappears and any no any development, right, and then.

846
00:41:32,400 --> 00:41:33,919
Speaker 4: It is always going to be hanging out there.

847
00:41:34,040 --> 00:41:36,959
Speaker 2: It's rules that we don't have to get into now,

848
00:41:37,000 --> 00:41:39,640
Speaker 2: but there are rules about once a discharge petition reaches

849
00:41:39,640 --> 00:41:43,440
Speaker 2: to eighteen when I think it's seven legislative days, it

850
00:41:43,480 --> 00:41:45,280
Speaker 2: has to come up for a vote. It can't be

851
00:41:45,400 --> 00:41:48,520
Speaker 2: you know, it can't be delayed ter moved. But so

852
00:41:48,600 --> 00:41:50,759
Speaker 2: any the sooner you get them, the sooner you.

853
00:41:50,719 --> 00:41:51,200
Speaker 3: Have the vote.

854
00:41:51,239 --> 00:41:55,920
Speaker 2: Obviously, that goes without saying and things like this generally speaking,

855
00:41:55,920 --> 00:42:00,400
Speaker 2: not speaking about Epstein discharge petition sometimes lose steam. People

856
00:42:00,400 --> 00:42:02,280
Speaker 2: could come off of them. The White House is putting

857
00:42:02,320 --> 00:42:06,319
Speaker 2: a lot a lot of pressure on this. I'm just

858
00:42:06,360 --> 00:42:06,879
Speaker 2: saying that.

859
00:42:07,200 --> 00:42:09,600
Speaker 1: That's just squeal that. I mean, you know, that's one of.

860
00:42:09,680 --> 00:42:12,600
Speaker 2: The site is doing what you want to do with

861
00:42:12,680 --> 00:42:16,320
Speaker 2: this discharge petition. They're already conducting their investigation. It's premature

862
00:42:16,360 --> 00:42:17,200
Speaker 2: and you don't have to do.

863
00:42:17,120 --> 00:42:22,399
Speaker 1: This interesting so that the ask is not don't sign it. Ever,

864
00:42:22,520 --> 00:42:23,879
Speaker 1: the ask is don't sign it now.

865
00:42:24,239 --> 00:42:26,920
Speaker 2: It's really don't sign it now, I mean the way

866
00:42:27,320 --> 00:42:29,439
Speaker 2: I mean and listen in legislation.

867
00:42:30,960 --> 00:42:31,439
Speaker 1: By the time.

868
00:42:32,600 --> 00:42:35,200
Speaker 4: Yeah, and I mean they're trying to just exactly your point,

869
00:42:35,239 --> 00:42:37,080
Speaker 4: Like they're just trying to keep it going as long

870
00:42:37,120 --> 00:42:39,279
Speaker 4: as possible so they feel like it's going to lose

871
00:42:39,320 --> 00:42:42,160
Speaker 4: momentum mo stem there's be the next crisis, the next scandal,

872
00:42:42,239 --> 00:42:44,600
Speaker 4: the next thing to focus on, and that is what

873
00:42:44,640 --> 00:42:46,920
Speaker 4: the you know, or like, let's move forward. I mean,

874
00:42:47,280 --> 00:42:49,240
Speaker 4: but I think this, I don't think they have figured

875
00:42:49,280 --> 00:42:52,839
Speaker 4: it out at all. I think a huge problem for them.

876
00:42:53,040 --> 00:42:55,080
Speaker 1: Let's I want to pivot to Kennedy in the in

877
00:42:55,080 --> 00:42:58,040
Speaker 1: the mess over at the CDC and whether this is

878
00:42:58,080 --> 00:43:01,440
Speaker 1: a moment that the you know, the largest chunk of

879
00:43:01,840 --> 00:43:04,560
Speaker 1: Trump skeptics left in the Republican Party are on the

880
00:43:04,600 --> 00:43:07,640
Speaker 1: Senate side. Right, there's and the question and at any

881
00:43:07,640 --> 00:43:10,920
Speaker 1: moment they could there's always enough to deny Republicans a

882
00:43:10,920 --> 00:43:15,759
Speaker 1: majority on things if they decide to to to uh

883
00:43:16,400 --> 00:43:21,799
Speaker 1: unite on something. What kind of constituency does Kennedy have

884
00:43:21,880 --> 00:43:23,879
Speaker 1: inside the Senate Republican chamber these days?

885
00:43:25,000 --> 00:43:28,959
Speaker 3: That's a very good question. Uh it is.

886
00:43:31,280 --> 00:43:34,000
Speaker 2: I'll be put it this way. People want to be

887
00:43:34,000 --> 00:43:39,120
Speaker 2: deferential to Trump. Generally speaking, Kennedy has really taken a

888
00:43:39,120 --> 00:43:40,120
Speaker 2: lot of people for a ride.

889
00:43:41,080 --> 00:43:41,839
Speaker 3: Just be honest with you.

890
00:43:41,880 --> 00:43:47,040
Speaker 2: I mean, he gave all sorts of commitments to to

891
00:43:48,760 --> 00:43:51,520
Speaker 2: docacity and people feel like they were taken for a

892
00:43:51,600 --> 00:43:55,239
Speaker 2: ride with this guy. And this is something we have,

893
00:43:56,400 --> 00:43:58,799
Speaker 2: we have, we've written about and we can we can

894
00:43:58,880 --> 00:44:04,440
Speaker 2: never write about enough because you know, they were Senators

895
00:44:04,440 --> 00:44:06,480
Speaker 2: were forced to take a vote on Kennedy. Some of

896
00:44:06,520 --> 00:44:09,880
Speaker 2: them were hesitant, and they were given certain guarantees that

897
00:44:09,960 --> 00:44:11,920
Speaker 2: many of them feel that he has not lived up to.

898
00:44:13,920 --> 00:44:16,760
Speaker 1: Anna where I mean, I I can't believe.

899
00:44:16,800 --> 00:44:19,200
Speaker 4: I mean, I think Mule Cassidy is the guy to

900
00:44:19,239 --> 00:44:21,719
Speaker 4: watch right. I mean, it's his committee that has jurisdiction

901
00:44:21,800 --> 00:44:24,600
Speaker 4: over it, that is oversight over it. We'll see how

902
00:44:24,680 --> 00:44:29,440
Speaker 4: Kennedy handles it. But I mean, I don't know what

903
00:44:29,480 --> 00:44:32,560
Speaker 4: the what what is the next step they is cassideing

904
00:44:32,600 --> 00:44:33,680
Speaker 4: to say we're not going to vote for some of

905
00:44:33,719 --> 00:44:36,600
Speaker 4: the other folks that Trump has put up as a nominee.

906
00:44:36,640 --> 00:44:36,919
Speaker 1: I don't.

907
00:44:37,000 --> 00:44:39,520
Speaker 3: There's not a ton of no. No, they don't have

908
00:44:39,520 --> 00:44:40,279
Speaker 3: the guts to do that.

909
00:44:40,880 --> 00:44:43,480
Speaker 1: There's no real leverage. I mean, look, odd, be honest,

910
00:44:43,520 --> 00:44:47,319
Speaker 1: I think that. I think this. If he's outright lied

911
00:44:47,320 --> 00:44:50,719
Speaker 1: to senators, which is what you're implying here, Jake, then

912
00:44:50,840 --> 00:44:52,960
Speaker 1: arguably he could be impeached. But there's no way a

913
00:44:52,960 --> 00:44:54,160
Speaker 1: Republican House is impeaching.

914
00:44:54,840 --> 00:44:56,960
Speaker 3: No, No, I don't think. I don't think they.

915
00:44:56,880 --> 00:44:59,560
Speaker 1: Won't do it. No, I'm not. I'm not in. But

916
00:45:00,640 --> 00:45:05,600
Speaker 1: I am surprised that Susie Wiles has allowed this to

917
00:45:05,680 --> 00:45:08,720
Speaker 1: get as chaotic as it has. I have heard before

918
00:45:08,840 --> 00:45:12,080
Speaker 1: she tried to rain in Kennedy at the start, and

919
00:45:12,120 --> 00:45:14,120
Speaker 1: I guess she failed or she lost this side.

920
00:45:14,360 --> 00:45:16,480
Speaker 3: Trump had her back clearly clearly.

921
00:45:16,600 --> 00:45:19,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean he and by the way, like he

922
00:45:19,520 --> 00:45:23,279
Speaker 2: has his own constituenty constituency excuse me, in the party right,

923
00:45:25,680 --> 00:45:28,720
Speaker 2: Kennedy does and is leading what a lot of people

924
00:45:28,719 --> 00:45:31,800
Speaker 2: consider to be some sort of movement on health issues

925
00:45:31,840 --> 00:45:35,759
Speaker 2: and the Maha movement, which is a terrible speaking of rebranding,

926
00:45:35,760 --> 00:45:37,080
Speaker 2: maybe we should rebrand that.

927
00:45:37,960 --> 00:45:40,520
Speaker 3: But yeah, so he has his own constituency as well.

928
00:45:42,960 --> 00:45:46,120
Speaker 1: All right, let's move. The final one is a potential

929
00:45:46,120 --> 00:45:50,759
Speaker 1: pain point that divides the GOP as Putin sanctions, and

930
00:45:51,040 --> 00:45:55,880
Speaker 1: I I gotta think that if something was put on

931
00:45:55,920 --> 00:45:58,600
Speaker 1: the floor of the Senate, you might get sixty five

932
00:45:58,680 --> 00:46:01,040
Speaker 1: seventy votes to do something tough on Putin.

933
00:46:01,120 --> 00:46:03,680
Speaker 4: No, I think that's probably right. Yeah, I mean, listen,

934
00:46:03,719 --> 00:46:08,040
Speaker 4: I think that, especially if the Trump administration wants it.

935
00:46:08,080 --> 00:46:10,160
Speaker 4: I mean, you you're gonna have Lindsay Graham, You're gonna

936
00:46:10,160 --> 00:46:12,920
Speaker 4: have a bunch of Republicans who I think are already

937
00:46:12,960 --> 00:46:15,239
Speaker 4: in the camp to say we should be doing something right.

938
00:46:15,680 --> 00:46:17,640
Speaker 4: But I think they are, Like on a lot of things,

939
00:46:17,640 --> 00:46:21,040
Speaker 4: Senate Republicans are taking their cues from one Donald Trump.

940
00:46:21,480 --> 00:46:23,239
Speaker 1: They're not going to go off on their own on

941
00:46:23,239 --> 00:46:23,560
Speaker 1: this one.

942
00:46:24,640 --> 00:46:25,719
Speaker 4: I have a hard time seeing it.

943
00:46:25,840 --> 00:46:27,440
Speaker 3: Jake, I agree. I agree.

944
00:46:27,440 --> 00:46:31,520
Speaker 2: No, it's too and on on on sanctions and just

945
00:46:31,800 --> 00:46:34,120
Speaker 2: hitting back on Russia. I mean, Thune has been very

946
00:46:34,160 --> 00:46:37,120
Speaker 2: deferential to Trump's and they're not moving without Trump.

947
00:46:38,320 --> 00:46:40,960
Speaker 1: I mean they rhetorically they sound like they're ready to break.

948
00:46:41,440 --> 00:46:42,520
Speaker 1: They're just not going to do it.

949
00:46:43,120 --> 00:46:45,000
Speaker 4: I don't think they're a different place on a lot

950
00:46:45,000 --> 00:46:45,960
Speaker 4: of things potentially.

951
00:46:46,120 --> 00:46:47,200
Speaker 3: I don't think soon would.

952
00:46:47,000 --> 00:46:50,480
Speaker 2: Put anything on the floor to to that would present

953
00:46:50,520 --> 00:46:51,120
Speaker 2: that scenario.

954
00:46:51,320 --> 00:46:54,319
Speaker 1: Basically, let me get out of here. On two quick

955
00:46:54,400 --> 00:47:01,000
Speaker 1: questions about about campaign twenty six. Uh, is Jony Earn's

956
00:47:01,040 --> 00:47:06,399
Speaker 1: the last Senate retirement. Probably, I'm just saying, I mean,

957
00:47:06,520 --> 00:47:09,960
Speaker 1: to me, there's Cassidy, there's still Cassidy, Collins in Cornyan the.

958
00:47:09,920 --> 00:47:10,719
Speaker 3: Three c Yeah.

959
00:47:10,800 --> 00:47:15,000
Speaker 2: Sorry, I'm not convinced that that that that Collins does it.

960
00:47:15,480 --> 00:47:17,440
Speaker 2: If they do a bunch of crs and you're the

961
00:47:17,480 --> 00:47:20,320
Speaker 2: Senate Appropriations chair and you're not getting your marks?

962
00:47:20,560 --> 00:47:21,240
Speaker 1: Oh interesting?

963
00:47:21,280 --> 00:47:22,120
Speaker 3: Would you?

964
00:47:22,120 --> 00:47:23,520
Speaker 1: You're on the like I was.

965
00:47:23,640 --> 00:47:27,440
Speaker 3: You know, Collins will ultimately run, but I'm not convinced

966
00:47:27,480 --> 00:47:27,799
Speaker 3: to that.

967
00:47:28,200 --> 00:47:28,719
Speaker 1: Interesting.

968
00:47:29,680 --> 00:47:32,280
Speaker 2: I'm not going And I'm also, like you said, Cornyn

969
00:47:32,360 --> 00:47:33,160
Speaker 2: is an open question.

970
00:47:33,880 --> 00:47:35,240
Speaker 3: And the other one you mentioned was Casside.

971
00:47:35,239 --> 00:47:37,840
Speaker 2: I think Cassidy does run, but I don't feel like

972
00:47:38,640 --> 00:47:44,279
Speaker 2: can he wint much against against who's the guy who

973
00:47:44,600 --> 00:47:47,400
Speaker 2: the former member running against John Fleming against John Fleming?

974
00:47:47,440 --> 00:47:48,319
Speaker 3: Probably? Yeah?

975
00:47:48,360 --> 00:47:50,480
Speaker 1: But what about Julia Letl I mean I don't think so.

976
00:47:50,640 --> 00:47:53,319
Speaker 2: Right Ledlow hasn't gotten in yet. She would be an

977
00:47:53,360 --> 00:47:56,359
Speaker 2: interesting candidate. She is a very, very good Paul, very

978
00:47:56,400 --> 00:47:59,960
Speaker 2: attractive candidate. Uh in that she raises a lot of money.

979
00:48:00,120 --> 00:48:01,600
Speaker 2: Sheep's closed with the leadership.

980
00:48:01,719 --> 00:48:04,360
Speaker 1: I mean, doesn't Trump want to take Cassidy doesn't. I

981
00:48:04,400 --> 00:48:06,839
Speaker 1: mean Trump has never given up trying to take out

982
00:48:06,880 --> 00:48:08,879
Speaker 1: people that impeached him or convicted them.

983
00:48:09,200 --> 00:48:11,759
Speaker 4: But it's different than Tilli's, Like Tilla's was somebody where

984
00:48:11,760 --> 00:48:13,879
Speaker 4: they had an open kind of war happening. I feel

985
00:48:13,880 --> 00:48:16,600
Speaker 4: like Bill Gasty's gone along to get along with Trump

986
00:48:16,640 --> 00:48:18,719
Speaker 4: for the most part. Posts I mean in this this,

987
00:48:19,440 --> 00:48:23,040
Speaker 4: I mean he got Kennedy's. He's supported a lot this cycle.

988
00:48:23,200 --> 00:48:25,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, and he's been humiliated. I mean, I don't know

989
00:48:25,160 --> 00:48:31,520
Speaker 1: I why I I I assume Cassidy doesn't. But do

990
00:48:31,560 --> 00:48:33,799
Speaker 1: you think he doesn't run I think he doesn't run.

991
00:48:34,760 --> 00:48:36,960
Speaker 1: This Kennedy stuff has been I mean this is a

992
00:48:36,960 --> 00:48:40,240
Speaker 1: pretty big black mark on him, right, you know, he

993
00:48:40,239 --> 00:48:42,360
Speaker 1: he went out on a limb for Kennedy and he

994
00:48:42,440 --> 00:48:45,120
Speaker 1: got other I mean the Tom Tilli's statement A couple

995
00:48:45,400 --> 00:48:47,160
Speaker 1: was it about a month ago where Tilla said, well,

996
00:48:47,200 --> 00:48:49,279
Speaker 1: I voted for Kennedy because Cassidy told me to.

997
00:48:49,440 --> 00:48:54,400
Speaker 2: Said it was okay, right, I mean, listen, politicians typically

998
00:48:54,400 --> 00:48:57,160
Speaker 2: don't have you know, a great deal of shame. So

999
00:48:57,239 --> 00:49:03,360
Speaker 2: I think he could run again, But you know, I

1000
00:49:03,400 --> 00:49:05,359
Speaker 2: guess I don't feel that strongly one way or the other.

1001
00:49:05,360 --> 00:49:08,200
Speaker 1: Interesting, all right, let me get you guys out of

1002
00:49:08,239 --> 00:49:12,480
Speaker 1: here on this. You're expanding the punch Bowl Enterprise and

1003
00:49:13,000 --> 00:49:16,360
Speaker 1: what does that mean you guys? Studio? And what what

1004
00:49:16,400 --> 00:49:18,759
Speaker 1: do you see? What's the wh you know? You know,

1005
00:49:18,920 --> 00:49:23,799
Speaker 1: I've the Washington media market. You know, I've watched this

1006
00:49:23,880 --> 00:49:26,640
Speaker 1: over the years. You guys are the are the entity

1007
00:49:26,680 --> 00:49:29,799
Speaker 1: of the moment here. How do you how do you

1008
00:49:29,800 --> 00:49:31,840
Speaker 1: hold it? How do you keep it? What do you

1009
00:49:31,880 --> 00:49:33,200
Speaker 1: see the next five years looking by?

1010
00:49:33,719 --> 00:49:35,399
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's a great question. I mean, listen, I think

1011
00:49:35,600 --> 00:49:38,200
Speaker 4: we are five years old in January. So we started

1012
00:49:38,200 --> 00:49:41,040
Speaker 4: with four of us, will be almost fifty people by

1013
00:49:41,040 --> 00:49:43,480
Speaker 4: the end of the year. And you know, we started

1014
00:49:43,520 --> 00:49:46,400
Speaker 4: as a kind of a newsletter and as a subscription business,

1015
00:49:46,400 --> 00:49:49,040
Speaker 4: and we do lots of events, and we now have

1016
00:49:49,160 --> 00:49:51,920
Speaker 4: a policy intelligence tool. And I think when you look

1017
00:49:52,000 --> 00:49:56,759
Speaker 4: at the landscape, particularly on TV or video, this to

1018
00:49:56,880 --> 00:49:59,200
Speaker 4: us we feel like again like everybody kind of dismisses

1019
00:49:59,280 --> 00:50:01,759
Speaker 4: us oftentimes go where we're too niche or we're too

1020
00:50:01,800 --> 00:50:04,359
Speaker 4: focused on the Hill, Like, we know exactly who we

1021
00:50:04,440 --> 00:50:07,239
Speaker 4: are and what we're doing, and there's a huge audience

1022
00:50:07,640 --> 00:50:10,520
Speaker 4: of important people that care about the kind of conversations,

1023
00:50:10,520 --> 00:50:12,040
Speaker 4: the kind of covers that we're doing. And that's what

1024
00:50:12,120 --> 00:50:14,640
Speaker 4: FIO Day is, right Like it's a weekly show that's

1025
00:50:14,680 --> 00:50:17,640
Speaker 4: going to come out the Thursday after members leave. It's

1026
00:50:17,680 --> 00:50:19,919
Speaker 4: the last conversation that they have that put a fine

1027
00:50:19,960 --> 00:50:22,560
Speaker 4: point on the end of end of the week. That

1028
00:50:23,040 --> 00:50:25,360
Speaker 4: can also not just be about you know, kind of

1029
00:50:25,800 --> 00:50:29,040
Speaker 4: gotcha moments and the latest SoundBite of what's happening with

1030
00:50:29,080 --> 00:50:31,440
Speaker 4: the White House. I mean, this is really our kind

1031
00:50:31,440 --> 00:50:34,640
Speaker 4: of our encapsulation of what our written coverages to and

1032
00:50:34,719 --> 00:50:36,920
Speaker 4: our podcast is every day with the Daily Punch and

1033
00:50:36,960 --> 00:50:38,280
Speaker 4: taking that to video.

1034
00:50:40,400 --> 00:50:41,680
Speaker 1: Thursday's the new Sunday.

1035
00:50:42,040 --> 00:50:45,040
Speaker 2: First of all, Thursday news, Well, no, Thursday is the

1036
00:50:45,080 --> 00:50:45,920
Speaker 2: new Thursday.

1037
00:50:46,280 --> 00:50:49,000
Speaker 1: Let me just talk. But it's the most important thing

1038
00:50:49,080 --> 00:50:51,520
Speaker 1: is what you're really setting up is the future.

1039
00:50:52,440 --> 00:50:53,080
Speaker 3: Uh in.

1040
00:50:54,760 --> 00:50:57,000
Speaker 1: Three day that that there are no that Friday is

1041
00:50:57,040 --> 00:50:59,879
Speaker 1: no longer a workday. That's the real thing that you got.

1042
00:51:00,960 --> 00:51:03,960
Speaker 2: We're what we're doing, what we're trying to know, what

1043
00:51:04,000 --> 00:51:07,320
Speaker 2: we're trying to do is we're trying to maybe I

1044
00:51:07,360 --> 00:51:08,880
Speaker 2: won't say that because Anna will get mad at me.

1045
00:51:09,840 --> 00:51:12,319
Speaker 2: Let me say, well, let me just give in some

1046
00:51:12,360 --> 00:51:13,959
Speaker 2: credit here on a few things.

1047
00:51:14,040 --> 00:51:16,839
Speaker 3: Number One, what we're trying to.

1048
00:51:18,920 --> 00:51:20,759
Speaker 2: Members of Congress are asked to go on television to

1049
00:51:20,760 --> 00:51:22,920
Speaker 2: become pundits about Trump.

1050
00:51:23,239 --> 00:51:26,239
Speaker 1: Oh, I joke about it all the time. They're they're

1051
00:51:26,280 --> 00:51:27,759
Speaker 1: elected pundits.

1052
00:51:27,760 --> 00:51:28,839
Speaker 3: I'm not interested in that.

1053
00:51:29,200 --> 00:51:31,480
Speaker 2: Like I'm interested in it, I guess to the extent

1054
00:51:31,480 --> 00:51:34,280
Speaker 2: they're involved in the issue at hand. I'm not interested

1055
00:51:34,320 --> 00:51:37,120
Speaker 2: in having, you know, Congressman exon and to give me

1056
00:51:37,160 --> 00:51:39,960
Speaker 2: his views on like various things that other people are doing,

1057
00:51:40,000 --> 00:51:41,240
Speaker 2: the last people about Trump.

1058
00:51:41,440 --> 00:51:44,640
Speaker 3: Where it makes sense, I'll say this about our business, like.

1059
00:51:45,840 --> 00:51:51,520
Speaker 2: I am being I am. We can't be a niche enough,

1060
00:51:51,640 --> 00:51:55,560
Speaker 2: and like we've created business that's newsletters, events, now, video,

1061
00:51:56,040 --> 00:51:59,680
Speaker 2: a SaaS business, a data SaaS business, a subscription business,

1062
00:51:59,719 --> 00:52:00,360
Speaker 2: and ad business.

1063
00:52:00,440 --> 00:52:02,120
Speaker 3: I mean we are.

1064
00:52:01,920 --> 00:52:06,680
Speaker 2: We've created quite a multifaceted revenue business. And I just

1065
00:52:06,800 --> 00:52:09,840
Speaker 2: love being underestimated. That's the you know, the amount of

1066
00:52:09,840 --> 00:52:11,080
Speaker 2: business decisions.

1067
00:52:10,880 --> 00:52:13,640
Speaker 1: I don't underestimate you guys over promote.

1068
00:52:14,360 --> 00:52:16,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, the amount of business decisions that I try to

1069
00:52:16,920 --> 00:52:19,960
Speaker 2: push Anna to make based on perceived slights from my

1070
00:52:20,160 --> 00:52:24,080
Speaker 2: history is it should be alarming to a lot of people.

1071
00:52:25,160 --> 00:52:26,759
Speaker 1: Well, and I mean, look, I just look at the

1072
00:52:26,800 --> 00:52:29,640
Speaker 1: amount of money pouring and every time you think, boy,

1073
00:52:30,520 --> 00:52:33,640
Speaker 1: is there another industry that can spend money and outspend healthcare?

1074
00:52:33,640 --> 00:52:37,279
Speaker 1: And you're like, oh yeah, Silicon Valley says, hold, you know,

1075
00:52:37,440 --> 00:52:41,320
Speaker 1: hold my digital beer. I mean the amount of money

1076
00:52:41,360 --> 00:52:45,640
Speaker 1: being poured into Washington right now is I mean, it's

1077
00:52:45,960 --> 00:52:49,279
Speaker 1: it's always more than we've ever seen, but it feels exponential.

1078
00:52:49,920 --> 00:52:50,600
Speaker 3: I think that's right.

1079
00:52:50,760 --> 00:52:52,760
Speaker 4: I also think there was a real shift of power

1080
00:52:52,920 --> 00:52:54,440
Speaker 4: in COVID right where all of a sudden, you all

1081
00:52:54,440 --> 00:52:58,000
Speaker 4: these businesses having to deal with the federal government in

1082
00:52:58,000 --> 00:52:59,760
Speaker 4: a way that they kind of used to be dismissive.

1083
00:52:59,800 --> 00:52:59,920
Speaker 1: Right.

1084
00:53:00,120 --> 00:53:02,759
Speaker 4: Power centers was New York and LA and things like.

1085
00:53:02,719 --> 00:53:05,360
Speaker 1: That, and all of the states. Right remember we were

1086
00:53:05,360 --> 00:53:08,560
Speaker 1: all like, oh no, the real actions in those state legislatures,

1087
00:53:08,760 --> 00:53:10,040
Speaker 1: which it was for a time.

1088
00:53:10,400 --> 00:53:13,359
Speaker 4: Yeah, But I think right now, when you say particularly,

1089
00:53:13,400 --> 00:53:16,160
Speaker 4: I mean there's there's short term issues, there's long term issues,

1090
00:53:16,160 --> 00:53:19,960
Speaker 4: but all across every sector is there's mature businesses. But

1091
00:53:20,040 --> 00:53:22,000
Speaker 4: I you know, we talked to these new companies all

1092
00:53:22,040 --> 00:53:23,920
Speaker 4: the time, and they say, oh, it's not Washington's not

1093
00:53:23,960 --> 00:53:25,440
Speaker 4: going to come for me. I'm changing the world. Like

1094
00:53:25,719 --> 00:53:27,839
Speaker 4: it might take a while, it might take six years,

1095
00:53:27,840 --> 00:53:30,680
Speaker 4: but Washington's coming for everyone, and regulations coming, and so

1096
00:53:31,040 --> 00:53:34,120
Speaker 4: we can we have the eyeballs and the attention of

1097
00:53:34,160 --> 00:53:37,160
Speaker 4: the people that are making those policy decisions. And it's

1098
00:53:37,200 --> 00:53:39,319
Speaker 4: been something where I think we also are like the

1099
00:53:39,320 --> 00:53:40,920
Speaker 4: hometown paper of Capitol Hill, you know.

1100
00:53:40,920 --> 00:53:44,080
Speaker 3: Like we cover them as the.

1101
00:53:43,960 --> 00:53:47,680
Speaker 4: Beginning, the middle, and the end of our entire coverage season.

1102
00:53:47,719 --> 00:53:49,279
Speaker 3: It's not like, oh, you're you.

1103
00:53:49,200 --> 00:53:50,560
Speaker 4: Know, we really care about the White House. We really

1104
00:53:50,560 --> 00:53:52,879
Speaker 4: care about national politics or other things. And I think

1105
00:53:52,880 --> 00:53:55,120
Speaker 4: that that's validating to them, not that we're best friends

1106
00:53:55,120 --> 00:53:57,720
Speaker 4: with anybody, but that like, we care about what's happening

1107
00:53:57,760 --> 00:53:58,480
Speaker 4: in that building.

1108
00:53:58,920 --> 00:54:02,279
Speaker 1: Look, you know, it's funny you say, you know who

1109
00:54:02,320 --> 00:54:06,960
Speaker 1: you are, you know your audience. The last long run

1110
00:54:07,000 --> 00:54:11,160
Speaker 1: that any publication had that dominated the Washington the way

1111
00:54:11,160 --> 00:54:14,760
Speaker 1: you guys are dominating was back during roll Calls heyday

1112
00:54:14,960 --> 00:54:17,799
Speaker 1: in the nineties. And I would argue it's because they

1113
00:54:17,840 --> 00:54:20,160
Speaker 1: didn't try to cover the Clinton administration. They didn't try

1114
00:54:20,200 --> 00:54:23,040
Speaker 1: to cover all this other stuff. They always kept their

1115
00:54:23,080 --> 00:54:26,320
Speaker 1: eye on the ball. They were the Capitol Hill newspaper,

1116
00:54:26,560 --> 00:54:30,320
Speaker 1: not Washington's newspaper. And in fact, the minute they strayed

1117
00:54:30,320 --> 00:54:33,000
Speaker 1: away from that is when they started to lose a

1118
00:54:33,000 --> 00:54:36,200
Speaker 1: little bit of their of their status. Obviously they got pent.

1119
00:54:36,320 --> 00:54:39,400
Speaker 1: Every everybody gets a competitor, and you can't ever, you know,

1120
00:54:39,520 --> 00:54:43,680
Speaker 1: and competition's good, but you know, keeping your eye on

1121
00:54:43,719 --> 00:54:47,240
Speaker 1: that Capitol Hill ball, you know, you'll never You'll never starve,

1122
00:54:48,040 --> 00:54:53,720
Speaker 1: that's for sure, You'll never start. Well, I'm I'm an addict.

1123
00:54:53,800 --> 00:54:56,799
Speaker 1: I love you guys. I am a huge promoter. There's

1124
00:54:56,840 --> 00:55:00,160
Speaker 1: nothing like you right now. You're winning the race. And

1125
00:55:00,200 --> 00:55:01,680
Speaker 1: there's a lot of good stuff out there, don't get

1126
00:55:01,719 --> 00:55:04,880
Speaker 1: me wrong. You know, we all of our previous employers

1127
00:55:05,040 --> 00:55:08,319
Speaker 1: have really good people there, but you guys have an

1128
00:55:08,360 --> 00:55:13,440
Speaker 1: alignment of both vision and the editorial that's second to

1129
00:55:13,480 --> 00:55:15,759
Speaker 1: none right now. And it's a pleasure to watch. And

1130
00:55:16,120 --> 00:55:18,520
Speaker 1: let's just say, I hope I learned something and do

1131
00:55:18,640 --> 00:55:20,000
Speaker 1: my best to emulate it in some way.

1132
00:55:20,520 --> 00:55:22,200
Speaker 4: Thank you, Thank you Jack, really, Apprecia