Speaker 1: Hey everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL podcast,
Speaker 1: brought to you by Bett MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris.
Speaker 1: You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty.
Speaker 1: So last week the regular season is on tap and
Speaker 1: as the lines, as you might expect, are all over
Speaker 1: the place, but with me to break it all down
Speaker 1: is Ian Hartitz, NFL analysts for Rotal World. You can
Speaker 1: find them on Twitter at Iheartit's Ian. Thanks for coming on.
Speaker 2: How's it going?
Speaker 3: Thanks for having me on, Man, it's going good.
Speaker 4: I was like Week seventeen, especially from just a DFS
Speaker 4: and gambling perspective, because you know, it's one of those
Speaker 4: weeks where if you really grind your research, you know,
Speaker 4: find out what teams are doing with their starters.
Speaker 3: I can get more of an edge of normal. So
Speaker 3: we'll see what we can do.
Speaker 1: Yeah, definitely more than any other week. I feel like
Speaker 1: sports betters need to be really really focused on the
Speaker 1: lines because when news comes out, the lines that we
Speaker 1: were just talking about before we started recording can shift
Speaker 1: in an instant. We've already seen it Monday, right, so
Speaker 1: the lines really just books mostly reopened on Sunday already
Speaker 1: We're seeing shifts of three, four or five points in
Speaker 1: some places, so you definitely want to be on it.
Speaker 1: And I don't know about you, you do a lot
Speaker 1: of fantasy work. I do a lot of fantasy work.
Speaker 1: I really like this time of the year because like
Speaker 1: Week seventeen, you've still got dfs and everything like that.
Speaker 1: But with the playoffs, we can not only just enjoy
Speaker 1: football for what it is, but also focus on it
Speaker 1: from a more sports betting perspective and not from how
Speaker 1: many people are going to be mad at me for
Speaker 1: telling them that they could start Nick Chubble, you know
Speaker 1: what I mean.
Speaker 4: That's what I do to, you know, focus on some
Speaker 4: of those individual match up, specially more when the playoffs come,
Speaker 4: and you know, we can really make ourselves go crazy.
Speaker 4: I remember last year in particular, it was like seemed
Speaker 4: like every single week I convince myself that this was
Speaker 4: when the Patriots were finally going down because of X,
Speaker 4: Y and Z.
Speaker 3: But you know, sometimes that's just the way I cook
Speaker 3: the crumbles.
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, well we'll be saying that again next year
Speaker 1: after they win another Super Bowl. This year, come on, dude,
Speaker 1: I am a Jets fan living in New England, so yeah,
Speaker 1: pretty much my nightmare.
Speaker 2: All right, well, let's start, really, I mean, we.
Speaker 1: Can talk about the Patriots, but let's start with the
Speaker 1: one game that every sports better. It's really just every
Speaker 1: football fan, frankly in America is really dying to see
Speaker 1: the Browns at the Bengals, brown playing two and a
Speaker 1: half with the total of forty five. I mean, you know,
Speaker 1: I really this is why there is sports betting, because
Speaker 1: otherwise there would be nobody outside of the state of
Speaker 1: Ohio watching this game. But the Browns, they put up
Speaker 1: a fight against the Ravens in the beginning. You know,
Speaker 1: it looks like they might actually hold Lamar Jackson in check,
Speaker 1: especially since they won that first game. But really, in
Speaker 1: the end they are just no match. But then they're
Speaker 1: completely dysfunctional. The Bengals almost draw the inside straight against
Speaker 1: the Dolphins for that miraculous comeback, they can't make it happen.
Speaker 1: They are now as short of the top pick in
Speaker 1: the draft, so who knows where their head is at.
Speaker 1: But how do you feel here anything? With the Browns
Speaker 1: lank two and a half and the total at forty five?
Speaker 3: Real quick, how amazing was that Bengals Dolphins game?
Speaker 2: Man?
Speaker 4: Like you talk about someone of the best games ever
Speaker 4: between just two bad football teams.
Speaker 1: Really really entertaining, and you had that one and the
Speaker 1: Giants in the Washington game, so it was really you know,
Speaker 1: you just had.
Speaker 2: These terrible games that everybody was loving.
Speaker 1: But yeah, yeah, I mean, by the way, I don't
Speaker 1: know what has changed, but all of a sudden, teams
Speaker 1: are able to recover onside kicks with no problem.
Speaker 2: You know that.
Speaker 1: I don't understand that nowhere At first half of the season,
Speaker 1: there was just because they changed the rules so you
Speaker 1: can't run up, you know anymore.
Speaker 2: You've just got to be where you are. So they
Speaker 2: were way down and all of a sudden, it's just like, all.
Speaker 1: Right, we need two on side kicks. Yeah we could
Speaker 1: do that, no problem. So yeah, it is weird, but
Speaker 1: you know, good to see. But again, I'm sure the
Speaker 1: Bengals are, you know, nice to see that they put
Speaker 1: in an effort and also glad to see that they
Speaker 1: locked up the number one pick.
Speaker 4: For sure, for sure, And I think that's you know,
Speaker 4: just looking at this game, it's not a team has
Speaker 4: anything to play for. With that said, we've at least
Speaker 4: seen more glimpses from this Browns team, especially in the
Speaker 4: second half of the season, that they can be maybe
Speaker 4: for stretches, a good football team for the Bengals. I mean, look,
Speaker 4: they came back and they were able to make that
Speaker 4: Dolphins game a pretty entertaining, contested contest. But with that said,
Speaker 4: I mean, the Brown's the only team in this game
Speaker 4: that has been at least confused with an Okay team
Speaker 4: for a little bit this season.
Speaker 3: So I'm seeing the lines right now.
Speaker 4: You know, Cleveland only minus two and a half and
Speaker 4: I think I'm I think, I'm I'm down to lay
Speaker 4: those points because offense is playing a little bit better overall,
Speaker 4: I think in the second half a season. Like I said,
Speaker 4: and the big issue for the Browns first time they
Speaker 4: played the Bengals was Obi Jaljic got locked up by
Speaker 4: William Jackson, who has done some shadow coverage in here
Speaker 4: in the last few weeks. So if he is out
Speaker 4: after suffering, I believe it was a short injury, but
Speaker 4: I'm not positive. We'll see what injury reports say later
Speaker 4: in a week. But if William Jackson's out, like that's
Speaker 4: one of the last remaining two difference makers on that
Speaker 4: Bengals defense. So I think we could see the Browns
Speaker 4: and then more talented offense.
Speaker 3: How successful.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like it under a field goal.
Speaker 1: It opened at a field goal, so the fact that
Speaker 1: it's dropped underneath, I've already put a couple of units
Speaker 1: on them.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 1: Look, I never feel good about backing the Browns, right,
Speaker 1: and it's not about their talent. I mean, you know again,
Speaker 1: we talked about it, you know, a lot during the season.
Speaker 1: They were by far the most bet Super Bowl winner
Speaker 1: and Mayfield by far the most bet MVP play. A
Speaker 1: lot of that is just public perception rather than whether
Speaker 1: or not it's justified. But they're not quite as bad
Speaker 1: of a team as they've seen. They're just really, really
Speaker 1: poorly coached. But in the end, it's just the talent
Speaker 1: gaps between the two teams. At this point, when you're getting,
Speaker 1: you know, only being forced to give you know, less
Speaker 1: than a field goal, I'm all over that.
Speaker 5: Now.
Speaker 1: I feel dirty because you don't want to back the
Speaker 1: Browns in any shape or form, But at this point
Speaker 1: I agree with you. I think there is value on
Speaker 1: the Browns.
Speaker 4: I think, real quick, I think we got this. We're
Speaker 4: not betting on the Browns, We're betting against the Bengals.
Speaker 2: I love it.
Speaker 1: That will definitely make me feel better when the Bengals
Speaker 1: recover an outside kick and win the game and the
Speaker 1: last second, all right, Chargers at the Chiefs, Chiefs laying
Speaker 1: seven and a half here, the total at forty six
Speaker 1: and a half. The Chiefs here, I mean, they do
Speaker 1: still have something to play for there at the two seat.
Speaker 1: If they win and the Pats lose to Miami. That
Speaker 1: is obviously not particularly likely, although you know, the Dolphins
Speaker 1: have a history of playing hard against the Patriots, mostly
Speaker 1: in Miami. But realistically, the Chiefs still have something to
Speaker 1: play for here. The Chargers are just a complete disaster
Speaker 1: basically on both sides of the ball. They have not
Speaker 1: played up to as well as their talent. They dealt
Speaker 1: with a lot of injuries for much of the season.
Speaker 1: But still, you know, probably Philip Rivers Swansung, I guess
Speaker 1: there are probably going to be major changes coming into
Speaker 1: next year whichever way it goes. And the Chiefs meanwhile,
Speaker 1: I mean, they now look to be rolling. Mahomes looks
Speaker 1: fully recovered from his knee injury. They look like they're
Speaker 1: peaking at the right time. So Chiefs at home here,
Speaker 1: still with a little something to play for maybe link
Speaker 1: seven and a half with the total of forty six
Speaker 1: and a half.
Speaker 4: So I think as long as they have something to
Speaker 4: play for, like, that's enough for us. I mean, they're
Speaker 4: trying to slide in this number two seed. They're going
Speaker 4: to be playing Patrick Mahomes and Tyre kill and all
Speaker 4: the guys we care about until they're up by a
Speaker 4: good portion, which one of the spreads, you know, fairly modest.
Speaker 4: I think seven and a half, that's fine. That's all
Speaker 4: we need. It's not like we need them necessarily be
Speaker 4: fighting for their playoff lives. Just to back up here,
Speaker 4: I'm fine with this level of a you know, playoff
Speaker 4: just what they're trying to accomplish, and especially against this
Speaker 4: Chargers team that I think maybe fooled some of us
Speaker 4: in Week fourteen.
Speaker 3: When they just blew out the Jaguars.
Speaker 4: I that this could still at least be a pretty
Speaker 4: good offense week to week because we have the skill
Speaker 4: position talents there. I mean, whether it be Ken Allen,
Speaker 4: Mike Williams, Hunter Henry, their pair of running backs, everything's there.
Speaker 4: It just has not been a great year at all
Speaker 4: for Rivers. In fact, it's been a second War season
Speaker 4: of his career and QBR. I mean, the O line
Speaker 4: has been a problem. I don't want to put it
Speaker 4: all on Fill, but with that said, I mean, yeah,
Speaker 4: it just could soon be his last swan song, if
Speaker 4: it's not already. I think in this spot, the Chiefs
Speaker 4: are clearly the better team. I think lost in a
Speaker 4: lot of this Ravens hype recently is that the Chiefs
Speaker 4: might have found themselves a defense man since the week
Speaker 4: twelve by you know, they've were able to beat the
Speaker 4: Pats in Foxborough and other than that, they just shut
Speaker 4: down everyone, only thirty one points total allowed in December.
Speaker 4: I know we're used to Patrick Mahomes having an outscore everybody,
Speaker 4: and I think they're still capable of doing that, especially
Speaker 4: we've seen this offense finally get healthy in recent weeks,
Speaker 4: but the defense all of a sudden isn't quite the
Speaker 4: same pushover. So, like I was on a pop last week,
Speaker 4: man and I had to give a bold take for
Speaker 4: the rest of the way, and I think the Chiefs
Speaker 4: are going to kind of coast through the playoffs and
Speaker 4: even take down Lamar Jackson and Coast. So I think
Speaker 4: this will definitely be a good first start to get
Speaker 4: that one.
Speaker 2: I like it. That is bold, but I think there
Speaker 2: is one team that can do it.
Speaker 1: It is then, because yeah, they are clicking on all cylinders,
Speaker 1: not just offensively but also defensively. Here. You know, obviously
Speaker 1: you're laying more than the touchdown. It's always a little
Speaker 1: nerve wracking. But in the end, we've seen Philip Rivers,
Speaker 1: you know, although the classic Philip Rivers is you know,
Speaker 1: he's got two minutes, he's down three, and that's the
Speaker 1: situation you find himself in every time. But realistically, at
Speaker 1: this point, I just whatever is going on with him?
Speaker 2: It's been odd.
Speaker 1: Not only of course is he playing terribly, but the
Speaker 1: approach has been so weird. It's like as soon as
Speaker 1: they get down, as soon as there's any time running
Speaker 1: on the clock, it's just like he's just chucking balls
Speaker 1: deep every time. It's like they have no idea how
Speaker 1: to run at this point a cohesive offense. So in
Speaker 1: terms of the back door cover, I'm not all that
Speaker 1: worried about it, and I feel okay here with this
Speaker 1: number at the Chiefs laying seven and a half, because
Speaker 1: I do think they're rolling. I think even if they
Speaker 1: sort of probably realize that. You know, the Pats almost
Speaker 1: certainly are not going to lose to the Dolphins. They
Speaker 1: still want to go into the playoffs strong and on
Speaker 1: a high note and get in there. So I would
Speaker 1: be fine laying the seven and a half, and i'd
Speaker 1: probably you know, be okay with eight eight and a half.
Speaker 1: Once it gets past there, get a little nerve wracking,
Speaker 1: But I think they're going to be able to cover
Speaker 1: a big number.
Speaker 2: In this one.
Speaker 1: Let's move on to my Jets at the Buffalo Bills.
Speaker 1: Bills here are laying one with a total of thirty six.
Speaker 1: This spread is obviously influenced by the fact that the
Speaker 1: Bills have nothing to play for it. They're locked in
Speaker 1: at the number five seed after losing to the Patriots.
Speaker 1: They'll probably wind up playing the Texans in the playoffs.
Speaker 1: But you know, not one hundred percent set. But they're
Speaker 1: really solid football team overall. But you have to think,
Speaker 1: I don't I haven't seen anything on it yet, but
Speaker 1: you have to assume they're gonna be resting the majority
Speaker 1: of their skilled players. Meanwhile, the Jets win against the Steelers,
Speaker 1: helped out mostly by their defense, which remains strong. They've
Speaker 1: been playing. You know, they're a competent football team at
Speaker 1: this point. They're not you know, world beaters or anything
Speaker 1: like that, but they'll put up a game. Buffalo's a
Speaker 1: tough place to play, but again, not sure what to
Speaker 1: do here. I don't think that they've come out and
Speaker 1: said what they're gonna do with their starters. So Bill's
Speaker 1: laying won total thirty six.
Speaker 4: Yeah, So they interviewed Sean McDermott earlier and he basically
Speaker 4: said they're not sure what they're gonna do yet. He's
Speaker 4: still gonna have conversations with the GM in the front office.
Speaker 4: I mean, to me, that just sounds like they're not
Speaker 4: going to play the starters at this point. I feel like,
Speaker 4: you know, you take a Bill O'Brien approach and say,
Speaker 4: you know, we're here to win right away. If that
Speaker 4: there's any kind of hesitation with it, to me, that
Speaker 4: hints that they're gonna be resting as starters. But obviously
Speaker 4: a situation to watch throughout the week. The question just
Speaker 4: is how many starters, because I mean, if it's only
Speaker 4: Josh Allen and they're kind of you know, rolling out
Speaker 4: their first team defense again, that version of the Bills
Speaker 4: could easily still beat this Jets team at home, I.
Speaker 2: Agree, dare you? How dare you?
Speaker 4: I agree with you that they've looked better recently. They've
Speaker 4: won five of seven games, Like that's shocking to me.
Speaker 4: Now they've the wins I've come against Giants, Redskins, Raiders,
Speaker 4: Dolphins and you know Mason Rudolphin, Duck Hodge as the
Speaker 4: Steelers team.
Speaker 3: So not the most impressive victories.
Speaker 4: But what that said, man, Like, you know, you see
Speaker 4: them flash and the defense when they have Jamal Adams
Speaker 4: healthy out there, they can at least make some plays
Speaker 4: to slow down some offenses. I mean, I've touchdown Sam
Speaker 4: Donald through this, Robbie Anderson last week. Just I mean,
Speaker 4: I didn't see Sam Donald without Adam Gaze for at
Speaker 4: least three years before I consider writing that guy off
Speaker 4: because he just makes a couple of throws every every
Speaker 4: week or so that it just makes you shake your
Speaker 4: head because he can he can make any throw on
Speaker 4: the field. But anyway, this spot, I think there's just
Speaker 4: too much uncertainty right now. I'm staying away at the moment.
Speaker 4: I think the Jets should win, but just kind of
Speaker 4: based on what we've seen from them, Buffalo being at
Speaker 4: home and uncertainty around what starters could be out. I'm
Speaker 4: probably just gonna stay away from this one.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I can totally see that. And you know, the
Speaker 1: the most jetsy in thing to do would be to
Speaker 1: go up against all backups and get blown out by
Speaker 1: exactly right. But you know the one thing about the
Speaker 1: Bills is I assume Josh Allen's not gonna play. I mean,
Speaker 1: they've played a couple of tough games. You know, they
Speaker 1: played the Ravens and they played the Patriots. You know,
Speaker 1: some tough games where they're getting beat up. It makes
Speaker 1: sense for them to rest here. But Matt Barkley is
Speaker 1: not like a pushover. You know, he played all right
Speaker 1: when he was in there early this season. Ye, right,
Speaker 1: so he can definitely move the ball. Depending but again
Speaker 1: it depends are you gonna take out John Brown and
Speaker 1: coleb Easley, Like where are we going to be left with?
Speaker 1: I think I'd probably lean towards the Jets. I think
Speaker 1: this is the type of thing that they do to
Speaker 1: hurt their draft position, and they win these sides of games,
Speaker 1: but it's not anything I'm overly excited about, especially with
Speaker 1: the uncertainty. And regardless, Buffalo is a really really difficult
Speaker 1: place to play, especially at this time of year. The
Speaker 1: fans are insane because this is really all they have
Speaker 1: going on, this and the Sabers, and they're going to
Speaker 1: be out there no matter who is under center, and
Speaker 1: they're gonna it's gonna be could.
Speaker 4: So I'm the thinly veiled Afots.
Speaker 1: You got well to be fair man. I went to
Speaker 1: school in Buffalo, all right, I've been there. I know
Speaker 1: how it is. It's crazy, but yeah, again, a divisional
Speaker 1: game like this, whatever. But I do think that the Jets,
Speaker 1: as of right now, I have a little bit on
Speaker 1: the Jets. Right now, I'm assuming they're gonna rest pretty
Speaker 1: significantly most of their starters. But either way, that doesn't
Speaker 1: guarantee victory. Uh, you know for sure. But in the end,
Speaker 1: it's something to wait and see. But I think I'd
Speaker 1: be willing to risk it a little bit on the
Speaker 1: Jets because I do think that they'll probably find a
Speaker 1: way to pull this one out. Let's move on here
Speaker 1: to the Saints. At the Panther, Saints laying thirteen and
Speaker 1: the total at forty seven and a half, so a
Speaker 1: lot up in the air here for the Saints. I
Speaker 1: think they could finish anywhere from the number one seed
Speaker 1: to the number three seat, so they're gonna want to
Speaker 1: win here. They continue to play well despite being hit
Speaker 1: hard by injuries, with their run defense in particular. Meanwhile,
Speaker 1: the Panthers are just terrible right now. They're probably going
Speaker 1: to be down DJ Moore, who left last week early
Speaker 1: on with a concussion. Will Greer is getting another start.
Speaker 1: That does not bode well for their offense. It's going
Speaker 1: to be all about whether they can get Christian McCaffrey
Speaker 1: enough total yards for him to go down in history.
Speaker 1: So Saints laying a big number on the road here
Speaker 1: thirteen with the total at forty seven and a half.
Speaker 4: I was about to say, the only number we'd know
Speaker 4: is that McCaffrey's sixty seven receiving yards to get to
Speaker 4: that one K one K club.
Speaker 3: You know.
Speaker 4: That's so they could be forcing to do. I mean
Speaker 4: they've already started it these last two weeks. I mean,
Speaker 4: fifteen targets for Christian McCaffrey last week, that's just absurd.
Speaker 2: I mean he got all of them though, Man, he
Speaker 2: got all of them.
Speaker 4: Hey man, it's the fact that McCaffrey has done what
Speaker 4: he's done this year with a mix of a hurt
Speaker 4: Cam Newton, Kyle Allen now Will Greer at quarterback is
Speaker 4: just absolutely insane. I just imagine what this guy could
Speaker 4: do in an offense where maybe, you know, all eleven
Speaker 4: guys weren't keen up to stop him every play. But no,
Speaker 4: I don't think nothing in this offense over the past
Speaker 4: like two months has told me that this Panthers team
Speaker 4: is really capable of putting together a complete effort.
Speaker 3: They look competitive at times.
Speaker 4: I mean, they still even though their run defense is
Speaker 4: just easily the worst in the league any metric you
Speaker 4: want to look at, like James Bradberry, Ross Ke Cockrells
Speaker 4: when making some plays lately. They have some talent in
Speaker 4: that secondary, but they just cannot stop anyone on the ground.
Speaker 4: I mean, it's like the Panthers and the Jaguars. If
Speaker 4: you want to make money in DFS, you just play
Speaker 4: whatever running backs are going against those guys. I mean,
Speaker 4: they've allowed twenty nine rushing dutchtownds this year, the Jaguars
Speaker 4: and the only other team even over twenty. It's just
Speaker 4: not even close. Shaq Thompson's banged up. It's not all
Speaker 4: those guys' fault, but they haven't been able to stop anyone.
Speaker 4: And again, you know, like we're talking about with the Chiefs,
Speaker 4: if there's any sort of motivation, that's enough for me.
Speaker 3: So I think the Saints probably roll here.
Speaker 4: Thirteen's a lot like I probably wouldn't put a ton
Speaker 4: now on this, but with that set, man, they're a
Speaker 4: better team. They just beat the Titans by ten in
Speaker 4: a game that they you know, kind of took the
Speaker 4: first half off, and I think, you know, we would
Speaker 4: never confuse the Titans with this Panthers team in terms
Speaker 4: of who's better.
Speaker 3: So I do like Saints minus thirteen.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I am probably going to stay away from this game,
Speaker 1: but I agree if there is a side, it has
Speaker 1: to be the Saints.
Speaker 2: I just can't take that many points, man.
Speaker 1: I mean these games right where there's only one other
Speaker 1: game with a spread like that right now, it's the
Speaker 1: Dolphins Pats, and I certainly have some thoughts on that one.
Speaker 1: This one it's just a game where I can't I'm
Speaker 1: watching Will Greer was painful against the Cults, so I
Speaker 1: can't imagine him keeping this game close. But thirteen points.
Speaker 1: It's one of these things where I look at them
Speaker 1: like the value is probably on the Panthers. There's no
Speaker 1: way I could back the Panthers on this game. If
Speaker 1: forced to go one way, I would probably go the Saints,
Speaker 1: but it's probably more of a stay away from me.
Speaker 1: Let's move on to the Bears and the Vikings. Vikings
Speaker 1: laying seven with the total at forty one and a half.
Speaker 1: We're recording this before Monday Night football, so we don't
Speaker 1: know what's gonna happen to night between the Vikings and
Speaker 1: the Packers. But even if the Vikings win, they need
Speaker 1: the Packers to lose next week to the Lions to
Speaker 1: even have a shot at the division. That's probably not
Speaker 1: gonna happen. So they're already heavily injured at running back.
Speaker 1: Dalvin Cook is not gonna play tonight. Probably Alexander Madison
Speaker 1: is not gonna play tonight. It's probably a good bet
Speaker 1: that they'll rest some starters here, unless you know, if
Speaker 1: they win tonight and they have that out, then you
Speaker 1: know they'll they'll play their starters, I'm sure. But you know,
Speaker 1: if they do lose tonight, it's a good chance that
Speaker 1: they're gonna rest everybody just to get healthy to the playoffs. Meanwhile,
Speaker 1: the Bears remain decent defensively, but I will generously say
Speaker 1: that they are inconsistent offensively. It's been mostly a lost
Speaker 1: season for them.
Speaker 2: Mis Trubisky has certainly disappointed, you know, especially our good
Speaker 2: friend Mike Tegler. So what do you think here?
Speaker 1: I mean, obviously a little difficult to analyze this one,
Speaker 1: not knowing exactly what they're going to be rolling out there,
Speaker 1: but Vikings laying seven with the total forty one and a.
Speaker 4: Half, I do agree the Vikings do seem like a
Speaker 4: team where if they don't have anything to play for
Speaker 4: them and they're not going to put their guys in
Speaker 4: harm's way. We've seen them in the past with injuries
Speaker 4: and things, use limited snaps and really kind of be
Speaker 4: cognizant of what their situation is. So especially you know,
Speaker 4: Dalvin Cook and No potentially out of dealing these guys
Speaker 4: that are clearly not a one hundred percent I could
Speaker 4: definitely see them hitting the bench more often.
Speaker 3: Man, this bears offense.
Speaker 4: It really seemed like they were starting to gel and
Speaker 4: I know the matchups were nothing, which is why we
Speaker 4: got to be careful, you know when really evaluating good
Speaker 4: three game stretches. But played really well against the Giants, Lions,
Speaker 4: and especially Cowboys. Theybe just get these back to back
Speaker 4: duds against the Packers and Chiefs. There are impossible, trust men.
Speaker 4: I mean, I'm with you. It's like I want to
Speaker 4: take the Bears plus seven. I still think their defense
Speaker 4: is very solid. The biggest problem with the defense, they've
Speaker 4: had some injuries, like Keem Hicks most notably, although he's
Speaker 4: been backed the last few weeks.
Speaker 3: But their defense isn't the problem.
Speaker 4: The problem is the offense can't keep their defense off
Speaker 4: the field for even a little bit. And like obviously
Speaker 4: they're not scoring points either. So unless the defense once
Speaker 4: you know, find a way to put points up on
Speaker 4: their own. It's been a struggle all year. So if anything,
Speaker 4: Bears plus seven, because you know, I do think the
Speaker 4: Vikings are gonna be trending towards resting stars.
Speaker 3: That happens and we'll go see a line sync.
Speaker 4: But you know, kind of like you're saying you don't
Speaker 4: want to bound the Panthers, I don't want to bet
Speaker 4: on this Bears team, so I'm probably gonna be staying away.
Speaker 1: Look, man, I don't know what you're talking about. If
Speaker 1: you heard Chris Collinsworth last night. He basically was like,
Speaker 1: Missy is as good as Patrick Mahomes, So I don't
Speaker 1: know more weapons, man, right, that's Alan Rotport. You know,
Speaker 1: if only had somebody better than Alan Robinson, you know,
Speaker 1: it would be like the eighth best receiver on the
Speaker 1: Chiefs or whatever.
Speaker 4: I saw them do like a side It wasn't a
Speaker 4: side by side, but they're like showing a Mahomes throw
Speaker 4: and then Chubisky throw after, like yeah should It's like, no,
Speaker 4: these are not even comparable. Mahomes is making like three dudes,
Speaker 4: miss and Tubisky's rolling out of a clean pocket. It's
Speaker 4: so annoying we get these comparisons, but hey man, it
Speaker 4: is what it is. Trying to make some money on it.
Speaker 1: I mean, look, he's just trying to make people want
Speaker 1: to watch a game that was over after the first
Speaker 1: quarter over there. So look, first of all, I love
Speaker 1: Alan Robinson is one of my favorite receivers, so I'm
Speaker 1: really disappointed that he has had to play pretty much
Speaker 1: his entire career with terrible quarterbacks. And I feel bad
Speaker 1: for the Bears defense, which you just know, right as
Speaker 1: soon as like they give up a score or something
Speaker 1: they got, they're like, well this game's over.
Speaker 2: We have nothing we can do.
Speaker 1: So but with that said, for me, I'm gonna watch
Speaker 1: this game closely tonight. If the Vikings lose, I feel
Speaker 1: very confident that they're going to rest everybody going and
Speaker 1: you know, they's it's a winnable and they're a great team.
Speaker 1: It's a winnable NFC. A lot of the teams are good,
Speaker 1: but they can beat any one of those teams. They're
Speaker 1: a really really solid team. I think they're gonna rest guys.
Speaker 1: If so, I'm gonna take the plunge and go for
Speaker 1: the Bears at seven before the line drops, because I
Speaker 1: do think that again, you mentioned it there, they can
Speaker 1: look competent offensively at times, right they They certainly can
Speaker 1: in some of it was matchup based, but you know,
Speaker 1: I really think they can. And you know, the Vikings
Speaker 1: are really beatable against the past, especially if they rest
Speaker 1: you know, their starters offensively. I think the defense can
Speaker 1: at least go out in a high notes. So if
Speaker 1: they lose, If they lose tonight and they're locked into
Speaker 1: the wild card spot, they've got nothing to play for
Speaker 1: next week. I'm just gonna pound the Bears.
Speaker 5: Getting the seventh I'd bust say, I feel so much
Speaker 5: better about backing the Bears with like the one like
Speaker 5: like you said, the one weakness in this Vikings team
Speaker 5: is their secondary and specifically their cornerback group, and that
Speaker 5: just so happens to be like we have to now
Speaker 5: trust Mitch Schubisky to exploit that, so.
Speaker 3: Defensive, I feel so much better.
Speaker 1: That's funny, because I would feel not at all better
Speaker 1: trusting David Montgomery behind that line.
Speaker 3: You know what, That's a very good point all the
Speaker 3: way through.
Speaker 1: I'd rather trust that Robinson and Anthony Miller and everything
Speaker 1: like that. But anyway, let let's see what happens tonight.
Speaker 1: Then that'll really color how we feel about the game.
Speaker 1: Let's move on here to the Falcons at the Bucks.
Speaker 1: Bucks here are laying one with a total at forty
Speaker 1: nine and a half. Falcons finishing strong here, Julio Jones
Speaker 1: needs about one hundred yards to finish with his sixth
Speaker 1: consecutive season of at least fourteen hundred yards receiving. The
Speaker 1: defense is playing much better over the second half of
Speaker 1: the season. But you know what, the Bucks defense playing
Speaker 1: a little bit better too. They've been you know, everybody's
Speaker 1: been talking about how weak their pass defense is for
Speaker 1: most of the season. It's but a little better as
Speaker 1: we've gotten here to the end. James Winston's going to
Speaker 1: turn the ball over three times in this game, but
Speaker 1: he'll also complete passes to Justin Watson and Britshad Perriman
Speaker 1: and the tight ends. HOWE do you feel here about
Speaker 1: the Bucks laying one with a total forty nine and
Speaker 1: a half.
Speaker 4: You know, I'm looking at that total and I'm agreeing
Speaker 4: with everything you just said about the defenses. I under
Speaker 4: could be the play here, and it's just if through
Speaker 4: getting the full versions about these offenses, sure, I think
Speaker 4: they would be good enough to put up points on
Speaker 4: each other.
Speaker 3: But Julio has done his thing lately.
Speaker 4: But like, the reason the Falcons be able to run
Speaker 4: the ball at all this year is because they've gotten
Speaker 4: games against the Jaguars and Panthers.
Speaker 3: Like, that's it again, you can run those teams.
Speaker 4: Devonte Freeman really, you know, looking like kind of an
Speaker 4: older Marion Barber for the rest of the season unless
Speaker 4: he's been playing one of the least worst rush defenses.
Speaker 3: And then Buccaneers.
Speaker 4: I mean, Trudeo's to jamis for getting for Shaan Perriman
Speaker 4: over one hundred yards last week, and he still made
Speaker 4: that game competitive. But you know, four picks, I think
Speaker 4: we kind of saw what this offense is like. When
Speaker 4: you take away the top two wide receivers are just
Speaker 4: so just so happened to also be two the leagues
Speaker 4: more talented wide receivers and just at the position in general.
Speaker 3: So I mean nothing on Jamis.
Speaker 4: Yeah, obviously he needs to clear up the turnovers a
Speaker 4: little bit, but like expecting him to produce without Goblin
Speaker 4: without Evans is just kind of asking a lot. They
Speaker 4: haven't been to run the ball all season. The Falcons
Speaker 4: have been playing better on defense since their bye week,
Speaker 4: and they've been a pretty average so above average team
Speaker 4: in general over the last month month and a half.
Speaker 4: So I'm not quite sure who wins this game. But yeah,
Speaker 4: under forty nine and a half is my play.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I love it, And the total is trending down.
Speaker 1: It opened at fifteen and a half, so I think
Speaker 1: the sharp betterers are probably with you and it might
Speaker 1: continue to turn down, So if you like it, get
Speaker 1: involved with it now. I agree with you on the total.
Speaker 1: If forced to go one side or another, I'd probably
Speaker 1: go to the Falcons, just because again he's so decimated. Man,
Speaker 1: I mean, losing the big two at wide receiver is
Speaker 1: really tough. Breshad Perriman played great, and you know Justin
Speaker 1: Watson was involved, but I just I don't think in
Speaker 1: the end they're gonna be able to pull this one out.
Speaker 2: But I don't have a strong feeling about it.
Speaker 1: I agree with you completely that the under is the play,
Speaker 1: and I think that if you do like the under,
Speaker 1: you should get it now because I think it's going
Speaker 1: to continue to trend down. Before we move on, I
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Speaker 1: hundred gambler. All right, let's move on to another big
Speaker 1: spread here. Dolphins at the Patriots currently Patriots laying sixteen
Speaker 1: with a total of forty five and a half. Pats
Speaker 1: have locked up the division. They need to win to
Speaker 1: ensure that they've got the buy, which they desperately need.
Speaker 1: They don't look particularly good right now. I mean still
Speaker 1: defensively they're strong, but offensively it's been a struggle for
Speaker 1: pretty much the whole year. But no one is going
Speaker 1: to want to play them in the playoffs just because
Speaker 1: they're the Patriots.
Speaker 2: The Dolphins fight and they fight hard.
Speaker 1: They're not going to get the topic in the draft,
Speaker 1: but you know, if this magic is going to always
Speaker 1: try to keep them in there. So it's a big
Speaker 1: number here, Patriots laying sixteen with a total forty five
Speaker 1: and a half.
Speaker 4: So the one thing that really sticks out to me,
Speaker 4: I have seen, you know, fitzpatrick AND's offense be entertaining,
Speaker 4: specifically downfield to Devonte Parker and Mike Jasickie. But the
Speaker 4: one thing that hasn't changed was Dolphins team all season.
Speaker 4: Just how atrocious their defenses. I mean, in their last
Speaker 4: six games they've allowed thirty seven, forty one, thirty one,
Speaker 4: twenty two, thirty six and thirty five points. I mean,
Speaker 4: you cannot ask for a better just get right spot
Speaker 4: for the Patriots before the playoffs, and then they've had
Speaker 4: the best schedule layout all season long, so why stop now?
Speaker 4: But the Dolphins aren't playing better on offense like I said,
Speaker 4: they got shut out by the Patriots forty three and
Speaker 4: nothing back when they played in Week two. I think
Speaker 4: we could both agree that was kind of a different
Speaker 4: Dolphins team and also clearly a different Patriots team since
Speaker 4: Antonio Brown was suiting.
Speaker 3: Up in that week.
Speaker 4: So I'm I'm seeing forty five and a half as
Speaker 4: the over right now, but on some other books it's
Speaker 4: been a little bit lower.
Speaker 3: If it's underneath forty four. I kind of like the
Speaker 3: over here.
Speaker 4: I just think that the Dolphins can't stop anyone and Fitzpatrick,
Speaker 4: I mean, the guy's going to be slinging it out there,
Speaker 4: and I think he can maybe do enough to give
Speaker 4: him the end zone once or twice, and at that
Speaker 4: point that's all we need.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think because of that kind of like the
Speaker 1: taking the points here with the Dolphins. I mean, I
Speaker 1: get it, they're not gonna win the game, they're not
Speaker 1: gonna keep it close, but there's so many opportunities here
Speaker 1: for a backdoor cover, right because fitz is just gonna
Speaker 1: keep going he I mean, you know, you worry a
Speaker 1: little bit about Gilmour taking away Parker, which he's able
Speaker 1: to do, and they're not really gonna be able to
Speaker 1: run the ball. I mean, even Miles Gaskin is gonna
Speaker 1: be out for this game, I'm sure, so it's gonna
Speaker 1: be Patrick laired, so they really can't do anything there.
Speaker 2: But I think there's gonna.
Speaker 1: Be enough there to probably get Sixteen's just I mean
Speaker 1: before this season, numbers like this did not exist. Just
Speaker 1: as a matter of course. Right now, all of a sudden,
Speaker 1: you're like, oh, what's the spread up seventeen? Great, maybe
Speaker 1: we'll take that. There's just for me, there's too much
Speaker 1: value here with the Dolphins and the pageot. They're just
Speaker 1: not that good offensively. Like, even with how bad the
Speaker 1: Dolphins are defensively, I don't think they're gonna be able
Speaker 1: to put up like a forty spot on this team
Speaker 1: and just sort of win going. I mean, all you
Speaker 1: got to do for the Dolphins to be able to
Speaker 1: cover this number is like to put up i don't know,
Speaker 1: put up fourteen points or something, score two touchdowns, and
Speaker 1: I think they'll be able to. So for me, I'm
Speaker 1: looking more at the spread here at sixteen.
Speaker 2: It's just it's too much.
Speaker 4: It's too much, yeah, me, And one thing I would add, like, yeah,
Speaker 4: it's not looking good for Devonte Parker this matchup. But
Speaker 4: the one guy I mean I was rewatching that Bengals
Speaker 4: and Dolphins gamer each today, well, I think I had
Speaker 4: stood out in that Dolphins offense was Albert Wilson. He
Speaker 4: had a lot of hype going in the season, but
Speaker 4: was really dealing with the calf injury for most of
Speaker 4: the year, and he really has explosive this back. And
Speaker 4: you know, just watching what Cole Beasley did that Patriots
Speaker 4: secondary with Jonathan Jones out last week with that groin injury,
Speaker 4: we was gonna do some damage out there. That there's
Speaker 4: holes in the Patriots defense.
Speaker 3: That's why.
Speaker 4: I mean, yeah, I could see them covering that sixteen points,
Speaker 4: and I could also see both teams getting over that
Speaker 4: you know, forty three, forty four more.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and again they're involving Gasicki a lot more now
Speaker 1: as well. So the fact that that that's happening, I mean,
Speaker 1: they're they're gonna be able to move the ball and
Speaker 1: with sixteen, man, I just doesn't take that much to
Speaker 1: cover that spread. So I'm gonna I'm gonna lay the
Speaker 1: points and probably feel.
Speaker 2: Pretty dirty doing it, but whatever.
Speaker 1: Let's move on to the Packers at the Lions Packers
Speaker 1: laying ten and the total of forty one and a half.
Speaker 1: We just talked about the fact that we have not
Speaker 1: yet seen tonight's game. If the Packers win, then I
Speaker 1: believe they secure a bye. If they win next week,
Speaker 1: and if they lose, then they're going to be in
Speaker 1: the position where they'll need to win to get the division.
Speaker 1: So I think under all circumstances, they're going to be
Speaker 1: motivated here. And then you've got the Lions. David Blau
Speaker 1: is not really an NFL quarterback. They continue to do
Speaker 1: whatever they can. Karrie and Johnson came back, but certainly
Speaker 1: you wouldn't expect them to be able to hang with
Speaker 1: the Packers. Although the Packers are not that good of
Speaker 1: a team, despite the fact that they may get by here.
Speaker 1: So what do you think your Packers laying ten total
Speaker 1: of forty one and a half.
Speaker 3: I think it's that last point, man, you know.
Speaker 4: I think they could be a good team, but particularly
Speaker 4: their defense just isn't the same kind of group of
Speaker 4: world beaters. I thought they were kind of looking like
Speaker 4: earlier in the season. I mean just with I mean
Speaker 4: weeks one, two three, I won. The big story lines
Speaker 4: was like how ya a, Alexander's one of the league's
Speaker 4: nextpecs corners, and then you know, Marii Cooper kind of
Speaker 4: decided that.
Speaker 3: That was not going to be the case.
Speaker 4: But you know, I think Addams, Darius Smith, Prust and
Speaker 4: Smith and they were getting some pressure. But with that said,
Speaker 4: teams have really bit of a run on them. They
Speaker 4: also haven't been great at stopping explosive plays or Kevin
Speaker 4: King has been banned up. The defense really is anything
Speaker 4: pressive impressive, and I agree with you, David Blow not
Speaker 4: an NFL quarterback. With that said, they've scored seventeen to
Speaker 4: twenty points in three or four games underneath the center.
Speaker 4: I think forty one and a half is just too low.
Speaker 4: The Lions defense has been very rough recently, starting to
Speaker 4: deal with some injuries in their defensive line line. Kind
Speaker 4: of one thing they've done somewhat well over the last
Speaker 4: few months has been stopped to run, but now that's
Speaker 4: starting to get jeopardized to draw Davis and the ir recently,
Speaker 4: and thanks to that nature and look the Packers, they've
Speaker 4: done a good job getting Devonte Adams going, and really,
Speaker 4: other than Aaron Jones, kind of a little bit more sporadically.
Speaker 4: It's been tough elsewhere, so I do think we're going
Speaker 4: to see them continue to try to get this offense
Speaker 4: to Joe kind of like similar to New England. We
Speaker 4: have not seen them peaqual yet on offense, so this
Speaker 4: could be a really good spot for them and try
Speaker 4: to get that rolling ten. I think they can get
Speaker 4: that too. I don't hate back in the Packers here,
Speaker 4: but I'm just more confident. I think these teams combining
Speaker 4: for forty two or more.
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, I like it. I don't want any piece
Speaker 2: of this spread.
Speaker 1: I mean, if I had to go one way, it'd
Speaker 1: be the Packers just because you know, you can see
Speaker 1: they're going to be motivated. They desperately need to win,
Speaker 1: regardless of what situation they find themselves in. But I
Speaker 1: agree with you that the total is going to be there.
Speaker 1: I mean the Lions again, they find a way to
Speaker 1: put up points.
Speaker 2: Every week.
Speaker 1: They put up seventeen, you know this past week against
Speaker 1: you know, not not an easy matchup against Denver. And
Speaker 1: I do think the Packers they you know, offensively, they're
Speaker 1: really not that impressive because they haven't found that second
Speaker 1: option in the receiving game other than Devonte Adams. You
Speaker 1: know who's their number two wide receiver right now? Is
Speaker 1: it Alan Lazard?
Speaker 2: I mean who is at this point?
Speaker 3: That's probably Lazarre. You know, you got Jimmy Graham's corpse
Speaker 3: running out there. We'll be doing a few things.
Speaker 4: But now it has been rough and they're talking about
Speaker 4: like their big change going to this game is like
Speaker 4: Jake Cumero is getting more reps.
Speaker 3: And nothing against Jake Cumro, but like Clue is the team.
Speaker 4: You know, I all these draft pundets talking about how
Speaker 4: this twenty twenty wide receiver class is just like the
Speaker 4: best ever in there's a team that really needs to
Speaker 4: invest in number two receiving options to the Packers.
Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely, But again, you know, part of what the
Speaker 1: Packers have done this year is they've run the ball
Speaker 1: pretty effectively all season. You can run on the Lions,
Speaker 1: so I do think that going to be able to
Speaker 1: put up points, you know, somewhat on both sides.
Speaker 2: So I agree with you with the total. I do
Speaker 2: not want any part of the spread right now.
Speaker 1: If I had to, would be the Packers, but I
Speaker 1: certainly wouldn't want to get involved with it. Let's move
Speaker 1: on to the Redskins. At the Cowboys. Cowboys here are
Speaker 1: laying ten and a half with a total at forty
Speaker 1: four and a half. This game kind of epitomizes this
Speaker 1: week in that it's a game I've absolutely no idea
Speaker 1: the handy gap. I mean, the Redskins. They continue to
Speaker 1: play hard, they lose an overtime against the Giants. Doyne
Speaker 1: Haskins has already been declared out case. Kingum is certainly
Speaker 1: capable of moving the ball as he did against the Giants. Meanwhile,
Speaker 1: the Cowboys likely lose the NFC East over here with
Speaker 1: their loss to the Eagles, Dak prescott shoulder did not
Speaker 1: look particularly you know right in that game. Mark Cooper
Speaker 1: was left on the bench at various points, so was
Speaker 1: Reynald Cobb. The Cowboys can still get into the playoffs
Speaker 1: if they win and the Eagles lose to the Giants,
Speaker 1: which is certainly a possibility to get to that game.
Speaker 2: So there's motivation here, right.
Speaker 1: They're not completely going to be like, Okay, we're done,
Speaker 1: But ten and a half points and a total forty
Speaker 1: four and a half. I don't know about you. I
Speaker 1: prefer the Redskins getting that amount of points. But let
Speaker 1: me hear your thoughts.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't think this Cowboys team deserves to be
Speaker 3: favored by double digits right now really against anyone, anyone.
Speaker 4: At the same time, you know, there's like world beaters
Speaker 4: two weeks ago against the Rams. I mean, it's just
Speaker 4: been such a check going high team all season long.
Speaker 4: And the one thing that really sticks out to me
Speaker 4: in this game, like other than the Cowboys just kind
Speaker 4: of general inconsistency, is just this Redskins defense has really
Speaker 4: fallen apart, and they've just had so many injuries. I
Speaker 4: mean number one cornerback Quitting Dunbar, their slot cornerback Faban Moreau,
Speaker 4: both of them are all sorts of banged up. I mean,
Speaker 4: they've been trying to bench like Josh Norman for the
Speaker 4: entire second half, and they actually had to run them
Speaker 4: out there a little.
Speaker 3: Bit just because so many other guys were banged up.
Speaker 4: But I mean they're fresh off allowing thirty seven and
Speaker 4: forty one points the Eagles and Giants, who you know,
Speaker 4: I think we'd agree don't really have the same offensive.
Speaker 3: Fire part of the Cowboys said.
Speaker 4: With that said, I mean, there's no reason why the
Speaker 4: Cowboys should just score nine points against that Eagles secondary
Speaker 4: that was down to the backup quarterbacks by the second half.
Speaker 4: So I think I'm just staying away here. You know,
Speaker 4: it would make sense to me if it goes over
Speaker 4: and the Cowboys win. But I did not have a
Speaker 4: read with this Cowboys team right now. I mean, they
Speaker 4: have to play hard because again that they win the
Speaker 4: NFC East if the Eagles lose the Giants and they
Speaker 4: get this win. So based on what's happened this division
Speaker 4: all year, certainly want to be the craziest thing, you know,
Speaker 4: the greatest way to end the season.
Speaker 3: Seems like this is kind of what we're destined to
Speaker 3: see happened.
Speaker 4: But I just thought enough confidentially in the Cowboys to
Speaker 4: put any money on him here.
Speaker 1: I mean, the Cowboys could easily win this game by
Speaker 1: twenty five points, right or they could lose it. I
Speaker 1: mean that's the problem, right you go in, You're like,
Speaker 1: I really have no idea what we're gonna see. I mean,
Speaker 1: I think for me, what it comes down to is this.
Speaker 1: I think the Redskins are going to be able to
Speaker 1: put up points here. You know, their offense has not
Speaker 1: been embarrassing. I mean, Haskins has played better in recent
Speaker 1: weeks than I expect it. And again, I think Keenum
Speaker 1: improves the offense because he's a capable.
Speaker 2: Sort of backup quarterback.
Speaker 1: Terry McLaurin is still playing well Adrian Peterson, It's still
Speaker 1: effective in that backfield somehow, So I do think they're
Speaker 1: gonna be able to put up points. And I really think, honestly,
Speaker 1: what this comes down to is, I really don't I
Speaker 1: think Prescott's shoulder is messed up.
Speaker 2: I think, you know, he made one.
Speaker 1: Throw yesterday where I was like, ooh, that that looks
Speaker 1: kind of like the dack of old. But other than
Speaker 1: that really wasn't there. So I don't think they're just
Speaker 1: gonna be able to go crazy with it. I mean,
Speaker 1: they'd be smart to just kind of pound Zeke.
Speaker 2: But we'll see. But in the end, you're getting more
Speaker 2: than the key number of ten. I would take that.
Speaker 1: And again, this is trending down by the way, it
Speaker 1: opened up at eleven and a half. It's now a
Speaker 1: ten and a half, so I could see it continuing
Speaker 1: to go down. I think the sharp money's probably going
Speaker 1: to come in on the Redskins on this one, So
Speaker 1: for me, I'd probably take the Redskins if you can
Speaker 1: get that hook with over ten. Once it drops to
Speaker 1: ten or a little bit below, i'd be a little
Speaker 1: more nervous about it. But as now, I'm going to
Speaker 1: fire a couple of bets on the Redskins getting that hook.
Speaker 2: Let's move on here to Red real quick.
Speaker 4: It also seems like a Marii Cooper can't be one
Speaker 4: hundred percent on now. I mean they're talking about he
Speaker 4: wasn't on the field on you know, that fourth and
Speaker 4: AD play because it wasn't a formation they were calling
Speaker 4: all day. But i mean, come on, man, and like
Speaker 4: four or five weeks ago, it's like how you couldn't
Speaker 4: watched one game without seeing just five awesome route running
Speaker 4: hillies from the guy creating like ten yards of separation
Speaker 4: and we just haven't seen that. And he was listed
Speaker 4: on the injury report pretty regularly with kind of like
Speaker 4: knee calf injuries throughout the first half the season, and
Speaker 4: just kind of once they established that he was going
Speaker 4: to keep playing through this, I think they kind of
Speaker 4: took him off. So same thing with Dak. You know,
Speaker 4: if he's out there and kind of toughened it out,
Speaker 4: not one hundred percent.
Speaker 2: Yeah, one hundred percent.
Speaker 1: Great point there, I guarantee you almost as soon as
Speaker 1: the Cowboys season is over, you're gonna hear that Amari
Speaker 1: Cooper is scheduled first. Certain Yeah, right exactly. So yeah, look,
Speaker 1: he's trying to gut it out, but you know they're
Speaker 1: not at one hundred percent. For me, again, the bigger
Speaker 1: thing is Dak because I think if you can't make
Speaker 1: those throws that he's capable of making it. Just you know,
Speaker 1: the offense. Certainly at ten and a half, there's enough
Speaker 1: of a reason to think that there'd be a backdoor
Speaker 1: cover at absolute worst. Let's move on here to the
Speaker 1: Colts at the Jaguars. Colts playing three and a half
Speaker 1: with a total of forty three. The Colts win handledly
Speaker 1: against the Panthers, but they really do very little offensively.
Speaker 1: It's mostly two punt returns from Naim Heines and and
Speaker 1: inept offense by Carolina that we talked about earlier. Meanwhile,
Speaker 1: the Jaguars are a complete disaster on both sides of
Speaker 1: the ball. They lose against the Falcons by twelve. If
Speaker 1: not for that game that they somehow won against the
Speaker 1: Raiders in the last game in Oakland, we'd just be
Speaker 1: betting against them completely last time these two teams met,
Speaker 1: the Colts one by twenty.
Speaker 2: I don't know about you at this point.
Speaker 1: I honestly I thought the spread would be more like
Speaker 1: Colts minus five. So I you know, I like it
Speaker 1: at three and a half. But let me know your
Speaker 1: thoughts three and a half total at forty three.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I really like the Colts here. I mean, you're right,
Speaker 4: nim Hines took those parking turns back and that was
Speaker 4: kind of big plays. But I mean, the Panthers couldn't
Speaker 4: slow down this Colts rushing offense the entire game, both
Speaker 4: Marlon Mack and Jeorde Wilkins, who were just kind of
Speaker 4: having their way with them. And that's because one the
Speaker 4: Panthers are awful. Like I said, four Panthers and oh
Speaker 4: look here we go the Jaguars, the two defenses that
Speaker 4: you can run on no matter what. And the Colts,
Speaker 4: you know, the one constant they've had this season, you know,
Speaker 4: wide receivers banged up, Backfield's banged up, to Kobe's been
Speaker 4: a little bit inconsistent. The one consistent factor has been
Speaker 4: their offensive line. Now this is maybe the only offensive
Speaker 4: line injury you need to truly like, hang your hat
Speaker 4: on this week, but Quentin Nelson is currently in the
Speaker 4: concussion protocol. If he gets like, if he's clear, then
Speaker 4: I think the Colts can just run the ball down
Speaker 4: in Jaguars throats all game. I never want to say
Speaker 4: a team is just quitting because I think, just like
Speaker 4: the nature of NFL football, you can't just quit out there.
Speaker 4: You're going to get hurt, You're get embarrassed, and these
Speaker 4: guys are still out there playing for a job. Like
Speaker 4: even last week, you know, the Falcons got up quick
Speaker 4: on the Jaguars still only won that game by twelve points,
Speaker 4: So I think saying they just kind of quit on
Speaker 4: the whole thing is lit bit strong. With that said,
Speaker 4: I mean, like you said, other than that Raiders come
Speaker 4: back that just came out of nowhere, the Jaguars have
Speaker 4: lost by twenty three points, twenty points, twenty two, seventeen,
Speaker 4: thirty five, and twelve. I mean it's not They're not
Speaker 4: just losing, They're getting blown out. And I think this
Speaker 4: is just a bad matchup for them stylistically, with the
Speaker 4: Colts offense that all they want to do is run
Speaker 4: the ball, and the Jaguars with they have five or
Speaker 4: six off ball linebackers on IR at this point, they
Speaker 4: just can't stop anybody on it. I like the Colts
Speaker 4: and yeah, i'd like them a higher number as well.
Speaker 2: Yeah me too, man, We're we're in agreement on this one.
Speaker 2: That Jaguars like the defense looks like they just don't
Speaker 2: have all that much interest in tackling people.
Speaker 1: I wondered whether or not the firing of Tom Coughlin
Speaker 1: would like sort of signal something. They'd be like, oh,
Speaker 1: you know, yeah, it would, We're released. Let's play lady.
Speaker 1: They were just terrible in that game. So yeah, I'm
Speaker 1: completely I'm all over. The Colts are at three and
Speaker 1: a half, and I'd be willing to do it even
Speaker 1: if it rose a couple points, which you know right
Speaker 1: now it doesn't show any signs of doing so. Before
Speaker 1: we hit our last games, I want to mind everyone
Speaker 1: about our giveaway. It is a signed Michael Thomas Saint's helmet.
Speaker 1: You go to Bettingpros dot com slash contest for more details,
Speaker 1: but to enter, just leave a review for the show
Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or stitch er. Send the screenshot of
Speaker 1: that review to contest at bettingpros dot com and if
Speaker 1: you have already entered a previous contest, you are automatically
Speaker 1: entered for this one, So no worries there. Now, the
Speaker 1: Tom's helmet, all of our signed helmets, they come from
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Speaker 1: with thousands of auctions every day. Just go to Pristineauction
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Speaker 1: our promo code Betting Pros and win a free five
Speaker 1: dollars voucher instantly. All right, let's move on here to
Speaker 1: the Eagles. That the Giants Eagles laying four and a
Speaker 1: half with a total of forty five and a half ian.
Speaker 2: What are you up to next weekend? Do you have
Speaker 2: any plans next weekend? This weekend?
Speaker 4: No?
Speaker 2: No, this weekend coming up? Do you have any plans?
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm about to watch my Hogs day Buckeyes get
Speaker 4: that w over Clemson back.
Speaker 2: Oh that's awesome. Well, good luck with that.
Speaker 1: But if you get bored, do you want to catch
Speaker 1: any passes for the Eagles? Because I just checked on
Speaker 1: LinkedIn and there are I know, I froze.
Speaker 2: You a little bit.
Speaker 1: I wanted to see I wanted to lead you a
Speaker 1: little bit, but it's all right, man, I like your style.
Speaker 1: Legitimately they have nobody the ball is zach Ertz fractures
Speaker 1: his ribs. He's uncertain for next week. Jj R Thaka
Speaker 1: Whiteside is banged up. I don't know about his status.
Speaker 1: They hold their destiny in their own hands, but it's
Speaker 1: Dallas Goddard and Greg Ward and Miles Sanders. Apparently Jordan
Speaker 1: Howard is going to come back for this game. I
Speaker 1: don't think that matters whatsoever, because the one bright spot
Speaker 1: has really been Sanders in that offense. What they have though,
Speaker 1: my being up against the Giants, who defensively continue to
Speaker 1: look awful. Offensively, Saquon Barkley dominates the Redskins both golden taint,
Speaker 1: Surling Shepherd heavily involved. Darius Slayton plays through an injury.
Speaker 1: But still they've got some offensive juice, just not much
Speaker 1: on the defensive side, specifically, especially since getting rid of
Speaker 1: Jenero Shenkins. So Eagles with the destiny in their own
Speaker 1: hand four and a half over under forty five and
Speaker 1: a half.
Speaker 4: Yeah, it'd be so much easier to just put all
Speaker 4: of our bank roll on Philly if they were just
Speaker 4: even remotely, not just bang up like as much as possible.
Speaker 4: So man Daniel Jones has gotten good at balling out
Speaker 4: against bad teams. He's gone for three hundred dollars and
Speaker 4: four touchdowns against the Redskins, Lions, and Jets, also a
Speaker 4: big game against the Buccaneers. Problem is, we've seen him
Speaker 4: pretty much collapse against everyone else. And I know, you know,
Speaker 4: we saw Devonte Parker just go nuts against the Eagles.
Speaker 4: We saw Dwayne Haskins really after weeks of just not
Speaker 4: doing anything, all of a sudden the competent against the secondary.
Speaker 4: With that said, once they got Mills and Darby Helsy together,
Speaker 4: they've allowed seventeen or fewer points in six of their
Speaker 4: last eight games. I mean this Eagles defense, they have
Speaker 4: enough difference makers at the line of scrimmage. They can
Speaker 4: stop the run game, and even if their secondary can't
Speaker 4: always hold up, they at least get pressure.
Speaker 3: So it's not like this is just an awful defense.
Speaker 4: They have talented players with different spots, just sometimes their
Speaker 4: cornerbacks get attacked. I'd be much more comfortable laying the
Speaker 4: points with the Eagles if we can get some confirmation
Speaker 4: that Darby and Mills are gonna be back. I know
Speaker 4: they're not very good to begin with, but dating back
Speaker 4: to like last year too, and when the Eagles really
Speaker 4: fall apart, it's when they have injuries in the secondary.
Speaker 4: At full strength, they're not really all that great to
Speaker 4: begin with, but once you take away those guys, it
Speaker 4: gets really bad. So I'm probably gonna stay away if
Speaker 4: those guys are out.
Speaker 3: It's the NFC East.
Speaker 4: If there's one thing we've learned this season, it's that
Speaker 4: who the hell knows what's going on in NFC East.
Speaker 3: But uh, you know, got into my head.
Speaker 4: I do think the Eagles win this game. Maybe not
Speaker 4: by four and a half though, so god, Giants plus.
Speaker 3: Four and a half.
Speaker 2: No, that's the thing. That's exactly how I feel.
Speaker 1: I I bet you if you're the Giants, who I mean,
Speaker 1: I think they probably love this, right, They would love
Speaker 1: to win this game, and basic right, they are going
Speaker 1: to come in here.
Speaker 2: It's this divisional game.
Speaker 1: They like to play spoiler in this and you know
Speaker 1: it would be just so perfect, you know, indicative of
Speaker 1: what the season was.
Speaker 2: If the ego both.
Speaker 1: The Eagles and the Cowboys lose you know, their finals,
Speaker 1: I mean, that's what would really be poetry in this point.
Speaker 1: For me, I mean, I agree with you. Everything you're saying,
Speaker 1: Darby sounds a little worrisome to me, But you know,
Speaker 1: I am gonna I think I like the Giants with
Speaker 1: the points. I just I don't think that the Eagles
Speaker 1: have enough offensive firepower to be able to take advantage
Speaker 1: of that horrible Giants defense. I mean, and we're talking
Speaker 1: how the Redskins just did it. I have more faith
Speaker 1: than the Redskins offense and the Eagles offense right now,
Speaker 1: given all the injuries.
Speaker 2: So I think I lean towards.
Speaker 1: The Giants, but I don't feel all that confident in it, frankly.
Speaker 2: But that's around where we are.
Speaker 1: Let's move on to the Steelers at the Ravens is
Speaker 1: one of the games that has moved the spread by
Speaker 1: multiple points. It was Ravens two and a half, it's
Speaker 1: now Steelers laying to. The total has dropped by three
Speaker 1: and a half points. Open at forty one and a half,
Speaker 1: it's now thirty eight. The Ravens are are They've already
Speaker 1: come out, they're Markingham's hurt, so he's clearly not.
Speaker 2: Going to play.
Speaker 1: Hopefully we'll be back to the playoffs with this cat strain.
Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson is resting this game, so you will see
Speaker 1: RG three. The Steelers defense remains strong, but offensively they
Speaker 1: are terrible. Dock Hodgs is going to get another start
Speaker 1: here because of Mason Rudolf's injury, but it sounds like
Speaker 1: James Connor is probably going to miss this game. From
Speaker 1: last thing I read, there's no tenth of.
Speaker 2: Them going anywhere.
Speaker 1: Even if they make the playoffs, they can get in
Speaker 1: if they win and the Titans lose. So what do
Speaker 1: you think here? I don't know how you even analyze
Speaker 1: this game. Steelers laying to and the total thirty eight,
Speaker 1: so the.
Speaker 4: One important thing I'd also know with the rest, I mean,
Speaker 4: it was not only Lamar Jackson's been ruled out right,
Speaker 4: it's Earl Thomas Marshall, Yanda, Brandon Williams, and honestly, like
Speaker 4: last on Sunday, Jimmy Smith and Marcus Peters were each
Speaker 4: banged up at different points the kind of had to
Speaker 4: miss certain times. This is looking like it could be
Speaker 4: a full on like first team entirely benched. Now Ken
Speaker 4: Duck Hodges beat the second string Ravens in Baltimore, I'm
Speaker 4: not really sure. So it's seems to me like a
Speaker 4: stay away. I mean, it sucks that this awesome Pittsburgh
Speaker 4: defense is kind of being wasted on a you know,
Speaker 4: just this offense and this kind of team in general.
Speaker 4: I know, makeu fits. Patrick's got in a lot of
Speaker 4: the praise, but more often not. Joe Hayden's been awesome.
Speaker 4: Devin Bush, after a real kind of first after a
Speaker 4: rough stretch, kind of started his career. He's helped give
Speaker 4: them that sideline, the sideline their linebacker they've been missing
Speaker 4: ever since Ryan Shazier, and I think really when you
Speaker 4: have that kind of speed in the middle of their
Speaker 4: defense just helps kind of raise the performance of everyone else.
Speaker 4: So I would really like to know for sure who
Speaker 4: the Ravens are sitting, because you know, if we're only
Speaker 4: kind of missing those four guys, then I think they
Speaker 4: could probably still get the job done. But to me,
Speaker 4: it sounds more like a full on benching and just
Speaker 4: kind of in the passing. We saw this in the
Speaker 4: I know, a completely different situation, but you know, Panther Saints,
Speaker 4: like Week seventeen last year, we've seen bad teams beat
Speaker 4: good teams that are arresting like most of their major
Speaker 4: and I think the Steelers, they're still well coach, their
Speaker 4: defense is anyone's idea of the league. I would take
Speaker 4: the Steelers' points gun to my head, but kind of
Speaker 4: like the NFC East, I just don't want anything to
Speaker 4: do with the Steelers team because it's been tough to
Speaker 4: get a grip on them all season long.
Speaker 1: There's only one part of the Steelers team I want,
Speaker 1: and that's the under and that's you know, this game
Speaker 1: has dropped to thirty eight. That is a low total.
Speaker 1: I don't think that's where it's stopping. I think it's
Speaker 1: going to continue to go down. I think you're going
Speaker 1: to end it around thirty seven.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I like that call. I mean, I'm here, I'm
Speaker 3: here on the spot they're.
Speaker 1: At right because you know they're not gonna the defense
Speaker 1: is going to be playing it. You know, it's not
Speaker 1: gonna be all backups, and they're gonna be you know,
Speaker 1: formidable enough.
Speaker 2: And they're at home.
Speaker 1: They're not you know, and and uh Dave Cocan I
Speaker 1: guess from last week talked about how John Harbaugh really
Speaker 1: hates to lose, so he's going to have them playing hard.
Speaker 1: It's hard to see the Steelers really being able to
Speaker 1: move the ball well. And if you've got RG three
Speaker 1: out there for the Ravens, it's hard to see them
Speaker 1: moving the ball against the Steelers. So I'll take the under.
Speaker 1: I'll enjoy a ten to three win by one of
Speaker 1: the teams, and then I'll move on from there.
Speaker 4: That's an awesome point about Harbor. I forgot about his
Speaker 4: you know, just always a ma preseason record.
Speaker 2: Correct. Yes, he's like the most winning his coach, and
Speaker 2: he doesn't like to lose. It was a great point.
Speaker 1: So certainly he's not gonna just roll over here. But
Speaker 1: in the end they probably won't have enough offensive firepower
Speaker 1: to put up points on that Steelers defense. So I'll
Speaker 1: go with the under, and I'll hit it now before
Speaker 1: it drops even further. Let's move on to the Cardinals.
Speaker 1: At the Rams, Rams lank seven and a half with the.
Speaker 2: Total at forty nine.
Speaker 1: We're almost certainly gonna be without Kyler Murray here, I think,
Speaker 1: I mean, there was some optimism on his.
Speaker 2: Hands own ran you think he's gonna play.
Speaker 4: Cliff Kingsbury is saying like, if he's so enough to play,
Speaker 4: he's gonna play. And then reports come out that the
Speaker 4: MRI showed nothing significant. It's just a regular minor hamstring pool.
Speaker 4: I have no idea why you play it doesn't make sense,
Speaker 4: and he probably won't be a one hundred percent if
Speaker 4: he does.
Speaker 3: But I to me, it sounds like legit questionable.
Speaker 2: That's okay. I think that that's fair.
Speaker 1: Yeah, he's certainly not in any way ruled out at
Speaker 1: this point, but again, you know he was battling hamstring
Speaker 1: injury a couple of weeks ago. It really seems pretty
Speaker 1: dumb to mess with the soft tissue injury at this point.
Speaker 1: Although God forbid something happened, he'd have plenty of time
Speaker 1: to recover before next season, so you know, you have
Speaker 1: to take that into account. If not, it's going to
Speaker 1: be Brett Hunley, who's capable of running the same type
Speaker 1: of offense, just not nearly as effectively. Meanwhile, the Rams
Speaker 1: they nearly pulling out against the forty nine ers, they're
Speaker 1: going to miss the playoffs though it's really just about pride.
Speaker 2: So how do you feel here?
Speaker 1: Rams at home link seven and a half with the
Speaker 1: total forty nine, With the understanding that it's a bit
Speaker 1: uncertain with Kyler Murray, not to.
Speaker 4: Say forty nine just seems too high. With a the
Speaker 4: whole Kyler situation. I mean, yeah, Brett Humley, it's kind
Speaker 4: of like the Ravens. You know, RG three can step
Speaker 4: in and run the same offense as Lamar.
Speaker 3: They don't need to completely change styles.
Speaker 4: But with that said, I think we're also seeing a
Speaker 4: fairly big drop off in talent like we would also
Speaker 4: see in Baltimore here in Arizona. So I think under
Speaker 4: forty nine. Yeah, the Rams offense, I thought they were
Speaker 4: kind of turning around. They've looked great against the Cardinals,
Speaker 4: and they played the first time Seahawks and then you
Speaker 4: know they had that Cowboys though, before actually being competitive
Speaker 4: again next week or last week against the forty nine ers.
Speaker 4: So I feel better about the Cardinals plus seven and
Speaker 4: a half if we had more of an assurance on health.
Speaker 4: But kind of seeing how that game went the first
Speaker 4: time around two bad teams, I'll know we see both
Speaker 4: offense like put together a great performance here.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't want any piece of this. I honestly,
Speaker 1: I feel like there are so many teams that I
Speaker 1: feel like I don't have a read on the Cowboys.
Speaker 1: We've talked, you know, who knows what you know? The
Speaker 1: Bucks were like that for us of the season. The
Speaker 1: Titans were like that for a lot of the season
Speaker 1: before they switch to ten l The Rams are a
Speaker 1: team I don't have a read on. I just don't
Speaker 1: know what I'm going to get any any game from
Speaker 1: one to the next, you know, I it depends. I mean,
Speaker 1: even if Murray plays, I can't imagine it's going to
Speaker 1: be that effective. So, you know, I guess I think
Speaker 1: you make good points there. But for me just to
Speaker 1: stay away game, I think let's move on to the
Speaker 1: Raiders at the Broncos. Broncos laying three and a half
Speaker 1: with the total of forty one, Raiders are halfway home
Speaker 1: to the ten leg parlay or whatever they had to
Speaker 1: try to make the playoffs.
Speaker 2: They win this game, the Titans.
Speaker 1: The Steelers, and the Jaguars all lose, they will get
Speaker 1: in as the sixth seed. That is, you know, seems unlikely,
Speaker 1: but not crazy unlikely at this point when you look
Speaker 1: at those games. The Bronco's not a pushover, though they
Speaker 1: continue to play hard. Drew Lock has not been great,
Speaker 1: but he's done enough. The Broncos defense continues to play
Speaker 1: pretty well. So how do you feel here about the
Speaker 1: Broncos at home? Length three and a half of the
Speaker 1: total forty one.
Speaker 4: I've been pretty presently surprised at what Drew Lock's done.
Speaker 4: I mean, look, he had the dud and arrowhead, but
Speaker 4: that was kind of a weird snow game. They weren't
Speaker 4: even able to run the ball, and I think that
Speaker 4: was just kind of a he wasn't gonna look good
Speaker 4: in that situation really no matter what. So if we're
Speaker 4: remove that, yeah, you know, looking pretty good against the Chargers,
Speaker 4: Texans and Lions. If you remove the Lions, at least
Speaker 4: the Chargers and Texans have They're not good defenses either,
Speaker 4: but they're not complete, you know, just utter pushovers. So
Speaker 4: I think Drew Lock can move the ball on the
Speaker 4: Raiders defense, which is a complete and utter pushover that
Speaker 4: you know. I thought Phils philp Rivers company were gonna
Speaker 4: get going last week, but just with their inability to
Speaker 4: protect them, it's been a better offense in Denver. I mean,
Speaker 4: the one thing Lock has done has shown he can
Speaker 4: enable Courtland Sutton. We saw Lindsay in that run game
Speaker 4: get going a little bit more last week. They're different teams,
Speaker 4: but you know, Raiders still playing for playoffs, but spot
Speaker 4: they did win this game in Week one, so they
Speaker 4: can move the ball. I the over runners a little
Speaker 4: bit low here of forty one. I'm kind of liking
Speaker 4: the over here just with the Raiders. They are fighting
Speaker 4: for the playoff lives and the Broncos, you know, with
Speaker 4: this momentum with Drew Locke, I don't think they're really
Speaker 4: trying to take the foot off the gas either. I mean,
Speaker 4: they're in a situation where they win this day and
Speaker 4: they can kind of feel good about the direction they're
Speaker 4: heading into the offseason. So uh, not the best to back,
Speaker 4: you know, Derek Carr and Drew Locke in the game.
Speaker 4: I hope for the over end, but I think forty
Speaker 4: one is long enough will take that chance.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: I mean, look, they just won what twenty seven seventeen
Speaker 1: I believe against the Lions, right, so that would that
Speaker 1: would go over there's no reason to expect this one
Speaker 1: to be all that different.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree with you here.
Speaker 1: I think the Broncos are going to win this game
Speaker 1: just because I think that that's how I think maybe
Speaker 1: everything else falls perfectly for the Raiders to make the playoffs,
Speaker 1: and they've done this, so yeah, that would be bad, But
Speaker 1: I think they win the game, but I'm not sure
Speaker 1: I love them at more than the key number of three.
Speaker 1: I mean, I expect it to be probably a tight game,
Speaker 1: but I agree with you. I think they're both going
Speaker 1: to be able to put up points. Broncos surely are
Speaker 1: because the Raiders defense is really not good and as
Speaker 1: you know, the Broncos continue to play tough. They've been
Speaker 1: dealing with some injuries on the defense side of the ball,
Speaker 1: and the Raiders' offense is competent. You might see Josh
Speaker 1: Jacobs in this game. I mean he's you know, Gooden
Speaker 1: came out to end said he might play. But DeAndre
Speaker 1: Washington is a perfectly capable fill in running back. So
Speaker 1: I do think that there are going to be points.
Speaker 1: So I like the call. I like over at forty
Speaker 1: one and the spread I'm probably staying away from. If anything,
Speaker 1: I lean a little bit towards the Broncos. Let's move
Speaker 1: on here to the Titans. At the Texans. Titans now
Speaker 1: are laying five with the total of forty five and
Speaker 1: a half. Pretty simple for the Titans. This is a
Speaker 1: playoff game. If they win, they are in. If they lose,
Speaker 1: they need some help. You can probably expect Derrick Henry
Speaker 1: to be back here. That was probably more about them
Speaker 1: managing knowing that they would need to win this game. Meanwhile,
Speaker 1: the Texans are in but Bill Brian has suggested that
Speaker 1: the team is going to play their starters, although it's
Speaker 1: a little ambiguous. You know, they want to win every game.
Speaker 1: I'm not sure exactly what that means. They would be
Speaker 1: wise to probably rest to Shaun Watson since he was
Speaker 1: getting his butt kicked by the Bucks and getting hit
Speaker 1: at the best they could do is the three seed.
Speaker 1: They can't get the buy, so it's really between the
Speaker 1: three and the four seats. So how do you feel
Speaker 1: here texting Titans on the road.
Speaker 2: Laying five with the total forty five and a half.
Speaker 3: Yeah, please rest Deshaun Watson?
Speaker 4: Yeah, come on, man, Like you know you're talking about
Speaker 4: like how the Bills should rest Josh Allen and when
Speaker 4: we're talking about these types of quarterbacks too that are
Speaker 4: running around more often, you know, I don't think that
Speaker 4: just because you're a scrambling quarterback, you're necessarily more prone
Speaker 4: to injury. I mean, I think those quarterbacks are kind
Speaker 4: of able to be be more athletic and kind of
Speaker 4: avoid those big shots make these miss get out of bounds,
Speaker 4: like you don't just want to be a statue in
Speaker 4: the pocket getting teed off on either. So I think
Speaker 4: that's a little bit of a misnomber sometimes. With that said,
Speaker 4: I mean Deshaun Watson. He makes magic happen sometimes. He
Speaker 4: also takes some bad sacks sometimes because he doesn't you know,
Speaker 4: he doesn't give up on plays, which is awesome when
Speaker 4: it works out, but you know, just too many times
Speaker 4: he's trying to throw the ball with guys around his legs.
Speaker 4: And if there's ever a quarterback that let's just take
Speaker 4: him off the field less go into the playoffs healthy
Speaker 4: with him. I think it's Deshaun Watson, and he is
Speaker 4: the only reason why I would back up Texas in
Speaker 4: this game. So I think the Titans have better position
Speaker 4: groups pretty much across the board. You know, obviously DeAndre Hopkins,
Speaker 4: uh you know, is better than a J. Brown, which
Speaker 4: people might be trying to bay after this last month.
Speaker 3: So I don't know, but you know.
Speaker 4: In general, just line play, I think overall talent across
Speaker 4: the board, I think the Titans are better than the Texans.
Speaker 3: Three and a half is a little bit high, but uh.
Speaker 2: No, no, it's all the way up to five. Man.
Speaker 3: Oh wow. So yes, I wrote down three and a
Speaker 3: half a couple of hours ago.
Speaker 2: What that's exactly right. It's moved all the way up
Speaker 2: to five.
Speaker 3: Wow.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 3: So they must be assuming that they're going to be
Speaker 3: sitting the starters.
Speaker 2: And I honestly, I think that that is a safe assumption.
Speaker 1: I mean again, O'Brien came out said he wasn't going
Speaker 1: to do it, and and or he was vague about it,
Speaker 1: which I think. By the way, there are a couple
Speaker 1: of injuries which I guess we should mention Fuller's out
Speaker 1: for this game. Willfuller who left with a growing injury.
Speaker 1: He's definitely out of this game, which again, that's that's huge.
Speaker 1: It takes away the field stretcher that really kind of
Speaker 1: hurts their offense a little bit. And Corey Davis is
Speaker 1: in the concussion protocol, I believe, so he may miss
Speaker 1: the game. He's obviously not a huge part of the
Speaker 1: passing game at this point, but his presence means something.
Speaker 2: I think for me, what's going to happen is.
Speaker 1: They're going to talk about it, like Deshaun Watson is
Speaker 1: playing coming into the game, and then the day before,
Speaker 1: maybe two days before, you're.
Speaker 2: Going to hear that he's going to be benched. It
Speaker 2: would be ridiculous to play him in this game, Absolutely ridiculous.
Speaker 2: It doesn't matter if you're the third or the fourth seed.
Speaker 1: He's a guy who, like you said, his big thing
Speaker 1: is he hangs in that pocket so he gets hit.
Speaker 1: You saw him he was limping around against the Bucks
Speaker 1: after getting hit a bunch of time. So I think
Speaker 1: in the end they're going to be smart about it
Speaker 1: and they're going to wind up sitting. I think Watson
Speaker 1: it's hard. Sometimes in these games you feel like the
Speaker 1: coach is like, well, I owe it, you know, to
Speaker 1: the Steelers. I'd want somebody to do it, you know,
Speaker 1: to put our guys out there. But in the end,
Speaker 1: the other thing is that if the Titans jump to
Speaker 1: a lead, a little bit of a lead, you can
Speaker 1: see them then pulling Watson right or if he takes
Speaker 1: a shot, you can see them saying, okay, we're going
Speaker 1: to be careful air and pull him at this game.
Speaker 1: So for me, even at five I'm getting in, I
Speaker 1: think the number is actually going to continue to rise
Speaker 1: at this point. So if you like the Titans, like
Speaker 1: I do, I jump in on it now. Let's move
Speaker 1: on to our final game forty nine the Seahawks forty
Speaker 1: nine ers length three and a half with the total
Speaker 1: at forty seven. Chris Carson down with the fractured hip,
Speaker 1: CJ prosize down with the broken arms. So it looks
Speaker 1: like it actually might be time for Marshawn Lynch. There
Speaker 1: is optimism that he was coming back, which I love it.
Speaker 1: Make the spread Seahawks minus you know, seventeen, because they're
Speaker 1: not gonna be able to lose that game if Lynch
Speaker 1: comes back. There is a ton on the line here.
Speaker 1: The forty nine Ers win and they are the number
Speaker 1: one seed. Well, the Seahawks would likely be the fifth seed,
Speaker 1: possibly the sixth if they lose. Meanwhile, if the Seahawks win,
Speaker 1: they win the division and the possibility of the two seed.
Speaker 1: But it depends. There's just a ton up in the air.
Speaker 1: So how do you feel about the forty nine ers
Speaker 1: length three and a half with the total of forty
Speaker 1: seven in Seattle?
Speaker 4: Like, Seattle has nothing new with marsh On Lynch, but
Speaker 4: I just look what's been the biggest problem with the
Speaker 4: Seattle offense kind of all year. The issue has been
Speaker 4: when they just refuse to pass, they take the game
Speaker 4: out of Russell Wilson's hands. Carson more often than not,
Speaker 4: was good, but come on, like eight nine fumbles where
Speaker 4: we've had this year certainly hasn't helped his cause for
Speaker 4: the entire our season. As far as astoncerned, they should
Speaker 4: be getting Davian Clowney back, hopefully to kill Griffin, who
Speaker 4: is easily the best cornerback in a secondary that has
Speaker 4: always been been pretty pretty putrid all season.
Speaker 3: I think it's a close game. We saw them play
Speaker 3: very close.
Speaker 4: It's you know, winner gets the division to be over
Speaker 4: that key number on a team that's home and has
Speaker 4: clearly the better starting quarterback.
Speaker 1: He lean toward Seattle, Yeah, I did initially when I
Speaker 1: looked at it.
Speaker 2: Okay, look, okay, okay, Well here's the one thing.
Speaker 1: Okay, this game against Arizona, this clearly struck me as
Speaker 1: something where the Shawks were just completely looking past it. Right,
Speaker 1: they knew that this was the game that was coming on.
Speaker 1: So the fact that they played so poorly overall, I'm
Speaker 1: willing to throw out and they are going to get
Speaker 1: healthier on the defensive side. This is just tough. It's
Speaker 1: a really tough game. I I don't want to back
Speaker 1: either a team at this point because I agree it
Speaker 1: was the look ahead was three at that point. It
Speaker 1: wasn't you know, really that enticing either way at three
Speaker 1: and a half. I kind of agree that the Seahawks
Speaker 1: like the play at this point point, but I just
Speaker 1: it feels like the forty nine Ers at this point
Speaker 1: are just a.
Speaker 2: More complete team. Overall.
Speaker 1: The Seahawks all year have not been as good as
Speaker 1: their record has been. Of course, it's been mostly Russell
Speaker 1: Wilson finding ways that win a ton of close games.
Speaker 2: I don't really have a good feel.
Speaker 1: For it, honestly. You know, I like that you're a
Speaker 1: little more confident in the Seahawks than I am. But
Speaker 1: you know, I could see the forty nine Ers just
Speaker 1: you know, being the spirit team and coming in here
Speaker 1: and winning it, but again with more than three points. Basically,
Speaker 1: I'm just basically saying, I like, kind of don't like
Speaker 1: this side, but I kind of don't like this side,
Speaker 1: and that's where.
Speaker 2: I'm kind of leaving it.
Speaker 1: So in the end, all right, you're gonna get in
Speaker 1: there on the three and a half, and frankly, I
Speaker 1: think the number is gonna continue to move up. I
Speaker 1: think the sharpbetterers are liking the forty nine Ers here.
Speaker 1: They've been fading the Seahawks a lot during the season,
Speaker 1: and again, the Seahawks have have won a ton of
Speaker 1: close games. I think they've won by more than eight
Speaker 1: points just one time this entire season. So all right,
Speaker 1: you're gonna take the three and a half. Any feelings
Speaker 1: on the total, by the way, at forty seven.
Speaker 4: I kind of like the under a little, but just
Speaker 4: more we think about it. I'm just you know, I
Speaker 4: think his store the second game between division opponents. You
Speaker 4: know that we have seen lower scores in those games,
Speaker 4: you know, the second time you're running into that offense
Speaker 4: and healthier Seattle defense. Obviously we know about the forty
Speaker 4: nine Ers defense, which is also I mean, it was
Speaker 4: gonna see them get Richard Sherman, Kawan Williams back lass.
Speaker 4: I think the falcons that they have, which is kind
Speaker 4: of more due to having five defensive stars out than anything.
Speaker 4: I can see the undergo here and just you know,
Speaker 4: a hotly contested, you know, kind of throwback mid to
Speaker 4: mid twenty tens.
Speaker 3: Forty nine Ers Seahawks clash.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like it.
Speaker 1: I think it's gonna be hard because you know, the
Speaker 1: Seahawks like to as much as you know, they probably
Speaker 1: do better just to turn over to Russell Wilson.
Speaker 2: They like to run the ball a lot.
Speaker 1: As good as fun as it will be to see
Speaker 1: Marshall Lynch back in Seattle, They're not gonna be able
Speaker 1: to do it as effectively as they were able to
Speaker 1: do when they had both Penny and Carson, So I
Speaker 1: think that leads to lower points. So I'm inclined to
Speaker 1: agree with you on the over under it With this spread,
Speaker 1: I'm just staying away and I'm just gonna, you know,
Speaker 1: enjoy watching the game from a lovelier ball perspective. All right,
Speaker 1: that's going to do it for today's show. Ian, thanks
Speaker 1: for joining me. Remind everybody where they can find more
Speaker 1: of you and your work.
Speaker 3: Thanks. That's fun.
Speaker 4: Foind me on Twitter at iHeart it's I H A
Speaker 4: R T I t Z NFL analysts over at rotal World.
Speaker 4: I'll tweet out all my stuff throughout the week. Plenty
Speaker 4: of stuff on the way. I know the season long
Speaker 4: fans football is over, but the grind never stops throughout
Speaker 4: the off season.
Speaker 3: So this is fun, man.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it was great. I hope we can do it again.
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Speaker 1: bets for Week seventeen.
Speaker 2: I'll talk to you that