WEBVTT - NFL Week 17 Game Lines Reactions (Ep. 38) 0:00:10.200 --> 0:00:13.280 Hey everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL podcast, 0:00:13.360 --> 0:00:16.320 brought to you by Bett MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris. 0:00:16.360 --> 0:00:18.680 You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty. 0:00:19.040 --> 0:00:21.759 So last week the regular season is on tap and 0:00:21.840 --> 0:00:24.799 as the lines, as you might expect, are all over 0:00:24.840 --> 0:00:26.560 the place, but with me to break it all down 0:00:26.680 --> 0:00:29.360 is Ian Hartitz, NFL analysts for Rotal World. You can 0:00:29.360 --> 0:00:32.440 find them on Twitter at Iheartit's Ian. Thanks for coming on. 0:00:32.440 --> 0:00:32.919 How's it going? 0:00:33.600 --> 0:00:35.440 Thanks for having me on, Man, it's going good. 0:00:35.600 --> 0:00:38.680 I was like Week seventeen, especially from just a DFS 0:00:38.680 --> 0:00:40.519 and gambling perspective, because you know, it's one of those 0:00:40.560 --> 0:00:42.839 weeks where if you really grind your research, you know, 0:00:42.880 --> 0:00:44.720 find out what teams are doing with their starters. 0:00:44.720 --> 0:00:46.479 I can get more of an edge of normal. So 0:00:46.880 --> 0:00:47.720 we'll see what we can do. 0:00:48.080 --> 0:00:50.400 Yeah, definitely more than any other week. I feel like 0:00:50.479 --> 0:00:53.199 sports betters need to be really really focused on the 0:00:53.240 --> 0:00:56.120 lines because when news comes out, the lines that we 0:00:56.120 --> 0:00:58.280 were just talking about before we started recording can shift 0:00:58.320 --> 0:01:00.960 in an instant. We've already seen it Monday, right, so 0:01:01.000 --> 0:01:04.520 the lines really just books mostly reopened on Sunday already 0:01:04.520 --> 0:01:06.959 We're seeing shifts of three, four or five points in 0:01:07.000 --> 0:01:09.000 some places, so you definitely want to be on it. 0:01:09.040 --> 0:01:10.320 And I don't know about you, you do a lot 0:01:10.319 --> 0:01:12.240 of fantasy work. I do a lot of fantasy work. 0:01:12.319 --> 0:01:14.000 I really like this time of the year because like 0:01:14.040 --> 0:01:16.320 Week seventeen, you've still got dfs and everything like that. 0:01:16.319 --> 0:01:18.600 But with the playoffs, we can not only just enjoy 0:01:18.680 --> 0:01:21.120 football for what it is, but also focus on it 0:01:21.160 --> 0:01:24.040 from a more sports betting perspective and not from how 0:01:24.080 --> 0:01:25.560 many people are going to be mad at me for 0:01:25.600 --> 0:01:27.480 telling them that they could start Nick Chubble, you know 0:01:27.520 --> 0:01:27.880 what I mean. 0:01:28.000 --> 0:01:31.160 That's what I do to, you know, focus on some 0:01:31.240 --> 0:01:33.800 of those individual match up, specially more when the playoffs come, 0:01:33.840 --> 0:01:35.959 and you know, we can really make ourselves go crazy. 0:01:35.959 --> 0:01:37.720 I remember last year in particular, it was like seemed 0:01:37.760 --> 0:01:39.920 like every single week I convince myself that this was 0:01:39.920 --> 0:01:42.640 when the Patriots were finally going down because of X, 0:01:42.760 --> 0:01:43.160 Y and Z. 0:01:43.360 --> 0:01:45.479 But you know, sometimes that's just the way I cook 0:01:45.520 --> 0:01:46.040 the crumbles. 0:01:46.240 --> 0:01:48.320 Yeah, well, well we'll be saying that again next year 0:01:48.360 --> 0:01:52.320 after they win another Super Bowl. This year, come on, dude, 0:01:52.400 --> 0:01:55.480 I am a Jets fan living in New England, so yeah, 0:01:55.720 --> 0:01:56.880 pretty much my nightmare. 0:01:56.920 --> 0:01:58.760 All right, well, let's start, really, I mean, we. 0:01:58.680 --> 0:02:00.520 Can talk about the Patriots, but let's start with the 0:02:00.560 --> 0:02:03.240 one game that every sports better. It's really just every 0:02:03.280 --> 0:02:06.080 football fan, frankly in America is really dying to see 0:02:06.120 --> 0:02:09.239 the Browns at the Bengals, brown playing two and a 0:02:09.280 --> 0:02:13.119 half with the total of forty five. I mean, you know, 0:02:13.320 --> 0:02:15.480 I really this is why there is sports betting, because 0:02:15.480 --> 0:02:17.720 otherwise there would be nobody outside of the state of 0:02:17.720 --> 0:02:20.120 Ohio watching this game. But the Browns, they put up 0:02:20.160 --> 0:02:22.240 a fight against the Ravens in the beginning. You know, 0:02:22.240 --> 0:02:24.760 it looks like they might actually hold Lamar Jackson in check, 0:02:24.840 --> 0:02:27.160 especially since they won that first game. But really, in 0:02:27.200 --> 0:02:28.720 the end they are just no match. But then they're 0:02:28.760 --> 0:02:32.280 completely dysfunctional. The Bengals almost draw the inside straight against 0:02:32.280 --> 0:02:35.320 the Dolphins for that miraculous comeback, they can't make it happen. 0:02:35.360 --> 0:02:37.120 They are now as short of the top pick in 0:02:37.160 --> 0:02:38.960 the draft, so who knows where their head is at. 0:02:38.960 --> 0:02:41.200 But how do you feel here anything? With the Browns 0:02:41.280 --> 0:02:43.760 lank two and a half and the total at forty five? 0:02:44.320 --> 0:02:47.079 Real quick, how amazing was that Bengals Dolphins game? 0:02:47.120 --> 0:02:47.280 Man? 0:02:47.320 --> 0:02:49.480 Like you talk about someone of the best games ever 0:02:49.480 --> 0:02:53.679 between just two bad football teams. 0:02:52.400 --> 0:02:54.760 Really really entertaining, and you had that one and the 0:02:54.760 --> 0:02:56.959 Giants in the Washington game, so it was really you know, 0:02:57.080 --> 0:02:57.560 you just had. 0:02:57.480 --> 0:02:59.640 These terrible games that everybody was loving. 0:02:59.680 --> 0:03:01.280 But yeah, yeah, I mean, by the way, I don't 0:03:01.320 --> 0:03:03.360 know what has changed, but all of a sudden, teams 0:03:03.360 --> 0:03:05.799 are able to recover onside kicks with no problem. 0:03:05.880 --> 0:03:07.119 You know that. 0:03:07.280 --> 0:03:10.160 I don't understand that nowhere At first half of the season, 0:03:10.200 --> 0:03:11.960 there was just because they changed the rules so you 0:03:12.000 --> 0:03:13.560 can't run up, you know anymore. 0:03:13.560 --> 0:03:14.760 You've just got to be where you are. So they 0:03:14.800 --> 0:03:16.480 were way down and all of a sudden, it's just like, all. 0:03:16.480 --> 0:03:18.399 Right, we need two on side kicks. Yeah we could 0:03:18.400 --> 0:03:20.640 do that, no problem. So yeah, it is weird, but 0:03:21.000 --> 0:03:22.680 you know, good to see. But again, I'm sure the 0:03:22.680 --> 0:03:24.799 Bengals are, you know, nice to see that they put 0:03:24.840 --> 0:03:26.480 in an effort and also glad to see that they 0:03:26.480 --> 0:03:27.720 locked up the number one pick. 0:03:28.000 --> 0:03:29.520 For sure, for sure, And I think that's you know, 0:03:29.720 --> 0:03:31.600 just looking at this game, it's not a team has 0:03:31.639 --> 0:03:34.240 anything to play for. With that said, we've at least 0:03:34.280 --> 0:03:36.520 seen more glimpses from this Browns team, especially in the 0:03:36.560 --> 0:03:39.400 second half of the season, that they can be maybe 0:03:39.400 --> 0:03:42.240 for stretches, a good football team for the Bengals. I mean, look, 0:03:42.240 --> 0:03:43.840 they came back and they were able to make that 0:03:43.920 --> 0:03:48.119 Dolphins game a pretty entertaining, contested contest. But with that said, 0:03:48.160 --> 0:03:50.160 I mean, the Brown's the only team in this game 0:03:50.200 --> 0:03:52.800 that has been at least confused with an Okay team 0:03:52.840 --> 0:03:53.920 for a little bit this season. 0:03:54.000 --> 0:03:55.560 So I'm seeing the lines right now. 0:03:55.640 --> 0:03:57.600 You know, Cleveland only minus two and a half and 0:03:57.760 --> 0:03:59.360 I think I'm I think, I'm I'm down to lay 0:03:59.400 --> 0:04:02.280 those points because offense is playing a little bit better overall, 0:04:02.320 --> 0:04:04.280 I think in the second half a season. Like I said, 0:04:04.280 --> 0:04:06.600 and the big issue for the Browns first time they 0:04:06.600 --> 0:04:09.400 played the Bengals was Obi Jaljic got locked up by 0:04:09.400 --> 0:04:12.000 William Jackson, who has done some shadow coverage in here 0:04:12.040 --> 0:04:14.760 in the last few weeks. So if he is out 0:04:14.800 --> 0:04:16.919 after suffering, I believe it was a short injury, but 0:04:16.960 --> 0:04:19.280 I'm not positive. We'll see what injury reports say later 0:04:19.279 --> 0:04:21.360 in a week. But if William Jackson's out, like that's 0:04:21.360 --> 0:04:23.600 one of the last remaining two difference makers on that 0:04:23.600 --> 0:04:26.320 Bengals defense. So I think we could see the Browns 0:04:26.560 --> 0:04:27.760 and then more talented offense. 0:04:27.800 --> 0:04:28.440 How successful. 0:04:28.760 --> 0:04:30.200 Yeah, I like it under a field goal. 0:04:30.480 --> 0:04:32.160 It opened at a field goal, so the fact that 0:04:32.160 --> 0:04:34.800 it's dropped underneath, I've already put a couple of units 0:04:34.800 --> 0:04:35.440 on them. 0:04:35.680 --> 0:04:36.000 Yeah. 0:04:36.040 --> 0:04:38.560 Look, I never feel good about backing the Browns, right, 0:04:38.600 --> 0:04:41.080 and it's not about their talent. I mean, you know again, 0:04:41.279 --> 0:04:43.400 we talked about it, you know, a lot during the season. 0:04:43.440 --> 0:04:45.960 They were by far the most bet Super Bowl winner 0:04:46.000 --> 0:04:48.640 and Mayfield by far the most bet MVP play. A 0:04:48.680 --> 0:04:50.720 lot of that is just public perception rather than whether 0:04:50.800 --> 0:04:53.400 or not it's justified. But they're not quite as bad 0:04:53.640 --> 0:04:55.680 of a team as they've seen. They're just really, really 0:04:55.680 --> 0:04:57.920 poorly coached. But in the end, it's just the talent 0:04:58.000 --> 0:05:01.040 gaps between the two teams. At this point, when you're getting, 0:05:01.240 --> 0:05:03.640 you know, only being forced to give you know, less 0:05:03.640 --> 0:05:05.080 than a field goal, I'm all over that. 0:05:05.120 --> 0:05:05.200 Now. 0:05:05.320 --> 0:05:07.080 I feel dirty because you don't want to back the 0:05:07.080 --> 0:05:09.200 Browns in any shape or form, But at this point 0:05:09.480 --> 0:05:11.080 I agree with you. I think there is value on 0:05:11.120 --> 0:05:12.400 the Browns. 0:05:12.520 --> 0:05:14.480 I think, real quick, I think we got this. We're 0:05:14.480 --> 0:05:16.600 not betting on the Browns, We're betting against the Bengals. 0:05:17.000 --> 0:05:17.440 I love it. 0:05:17.640 --> 0:05:20.039 That will definitely make me feel better when the Bengals 0:05:20.120 --> 0:05:22.279 recover an outside kick and win the game and the 0:05:22.320 --> 0:05:25.240 last second, all right, Chargers at the Chiefs, Chiefs laying 0:05:25.279 --> 0:05:27.560 seven and a half here, the total at forty six 0:05:27.600 --> 0:05:29.440 and a half. The Chiefs here, I mean, they do 0:05:29.640 --> 0:05:32.440 still have something to play for there at the two seat. 0:05:32.520 --> 0:05:34.599 If they win and the Pats lose to Miami. That 0:05:34.720 --> 0:05:37.839 is obviously not particularly likely, although you know, the Dolphins 0:05:37.839 --> 0:05:40.719 have a history of playing hard against the Patriots, mostly 0:05:40.720 --> 0:05:43.800 in Miami. But realistically, the Chiefs still have something to 0:05:43.800 --> 0:05:47.520 play for here. The Chargers are just a complete disaster 0:05:47.680 --> 0:05:49.720 basically on both sides of the ball. They have not 0:05:49.880 --> 0:05:51.760 played up to as well as their talent. They dealt 0:05:51.760 --> 0:05:53.159 with a lot of injuries for much of the season. 0:05:53.160 --> 0:05:56.200 But still, you know, probably Philip Rivers Swansung, I guess 0:05:56.279 --> 0:05:58.240 there are probably going to be major changes coming into 0:05:58.279 --> 0:06:00.799 next year whichever way it goes. And the Chiefs meanwhile, 0:06:00.839 --> 0:06:03.360 I mean, they now look to be rolling. Mahomes looks 0:06:03.400 --> 0:06:05.560 fully recovered from his knee injury. They look like they're 0:06:05.560 --> 0:06:08.640 peaking at the right time. So Chiefs at home here, 0:06:08.720 --> 0:06:10.800 still with a little something to play for maybe link 0:06:10.839 --> 0:06:12.599 seven and a half with the total of forty six 0:06:12.600 --> 0:06:13.000 and a half. 0:06:13.480 --> 0:06:15.479 So I think as long as they have something to 0:06:15.520 --> 0:06:17.760 play for, like, that's enough for us. I mean, they're 0:06:17.839 --> 0:06:21.039 trying to slide in this number two seed. They're going 0:06:21.120 --> 0:06:23.039 to be playing Patrick Mahomes and Tyre kill and all 0:06:23.080 --> 0:06:25.080 the guys we care about until they're up by a 0:06:25.160 --> 0:06:28.000 good portion, which one of the spreads, you know, fairly modest. 0:06:28.040 --> 0:06:30.120 I think seven and a half, that's fine. That's all 0:06:30.160 --> 0:06:31.919 we need. It's not like we need them necessarily be 0:06:31.920 --> 0:06:34.240 fighting for their playoff lives. Just to back up here, 0:06:34.279 --> 0:06:37.039 I'm fine with this level of a you know, playoff 0:06:37.600 --> 0:06:40.480 just what they're trying to accomplish, and especially against this 0:06:40.560 --> 0:06:43.200 Chargers team that I think maybe fooled some of us 0:06:43.200 --> 0:06:44.280 in Week fourteen. 0:06:43.960 --> 0:06:45.680 When they just blew out the Jaguars. 0:06:45.680 --> 0:06:47.320 I that this could still at least be a pretty 0:06:47.360 --> 0:06:49.400 good offense week to week because we have the skill 0:06:49.400 --> 0:06:51.960 position talents there. I mean, whether it be Ken Allen, 0:06:52.000 --> 0:06:55.080 Mike Williams, Hunter Henry, their pair of running backs, everything's there. 0:06:55.120 --> 0:06:57.280 It just has not been a great year at all 0:06:57.279 --> 0:06:59.160 for Rivers. In fact, it's been a second War season 0:06:59.160 --> 0:07:01.960 of his career and QBR. I mean, the O line 0:07:02.080 --> 0:07:03.680 has been a problem. I don't want to put it 0:07:03.720 --> 0:07:05.760 all on Fill, but with that said, I mean, yeah, 0:07:05.880 --> 0:07:08.920 it just could soon be his last swan song, if 0:07:08.920 --> 0:07:11.480 it's not already. I think in this spot, the Chiefs 0:07:11.480 --> 0:07:13.960 are clearly the better team. I think lost in a 0:07:13.960 --> 0:07:16.320 lot of this Ravens hype recently is that the Chiefs 0:07:16.480 --> 0:07:18.480 might have found themselves a defense man since the week 0:07:18.480 --> 0:07:21.520 twelve by you know, they've were able to beat the 0:07:21.560 --> 0:07:24.080 Pats in Foxborough and other than that, they just shut 0:07:24.120 --> 0:07:27.360 down everyone, only thirty one points total allowed in December. 0:07:27.640 --> 0:07:30.200 I know we're used to Patrick Mahomes having an outscore everybody, 0:07:30.240 --> 0:07:32.080 and I think they're still capable of doing that, especially 0:07:32.200 --> 0:07:34.840 we've seen this offense finally get healthy in recent weeks, 0:07:34.880 --> 0:07:36.840 but the defense all of a sudden isn't quite the 0:07:36.840 --> 0:07:39.800 same pushover. So, like I was on a pop last week, 0:07:39.800 --> 0:07:41.080 man and I had to give a bold take for 0:07:41.120 --> 0:07:42.600 the rest of the way, and I think the Chiefs 0:07:42.640 --> 0:07:44.120 are going to kind of coast through the playoffs and 0:07:44.160 --> 0:07:46.600 even take down Lamar Jackson and Coast. So I think 0:07:46.600 --> 0:07:48.240 this will definitely be a good first start to get 0:07:48.240 --> 0:07:48.560 that one. 0:07:49.000 --> 0:07:51.200 I like it. That is bold, but I think there 0:07:51.280 --> 0:07:52.240 is one team that can do it. 0:07:52.240 --> 0:07:54.760 It is then, because yeah, they are clicking on all cylinders, 0:07:54.840 --> 0:07:57.960 not just offensively but also defensively. Here. You know, obviously 0:07:58.040 --> 0:08:00.360 you're laying more than the touchdown. It's always a little 0:08:00.400 --> 0:08:02.960 nerve wracking. But in the end, we've seen Philip Rivers, 0:08:02.960 --> 0:08:05.560 you know, although the classic Philip Rivers is you know, 0:08:05.600 --> 0:08:07.960 he's got two minutes, he's down three, and that's the 0:08:08.000 --> 0:08:11.160 situation you find himself in every time. But realistically, at 0:08:11.160 --> 0:08:13.360 this point, I just whatever is going on with him? 0:08:13.520 --> 0:08:14.080 It's been odd. 0:08:14.120 --> 0:08:16.800 Not only of course is he playing terribly, but the 0:08:16.840 --> 0:08:18.680 approach has been so weird. It's like as soon as 0:08:18.680 --> 0:08:20.640 they get down, as soon as there's any time running 0:08:20.680 --> 0:08:22.840 on the clock, it's just like he's just chucking balls 0:08:22.880 --> 0:08:24.720 deep every time. It's like they have no idea how 0:08:24.720 --> 0:08:26.920 to run at this point a cohesive offense. So in 0:08:27.000 --> 0:08:28.720 terms of the back door cover, I'm not all that 0:08:28.760 --> 0:08:30.680 worried about it, and I feel okay here with this 0:08:30.760 --> 0:08:32.760 number at the Chiefs laying seven and a half, because 0:08:32.760 --> 0:08:34.679 I do think they're rolling. I think even if they 0:08:34.880 --> 0:08:37.880 sort of probably realize that. You know, the Pats almost 0:08:38.040 --> 0:08:40.160 certainly are not going to lose to the Dolphins. They 0:08:40.200 --> 0:08:43.040 still want to go into the playoffs strong and on 0:08:43.040 --> 0:08:44.840 a high note and get in there. So I would 0:08:44.840 --> 0:08:47.360 be fine laying the seven and a half, and i'd 0:08:47.360 --> 0:08:49.520 probably you know, be okay with eight eight and a half. 0:08:49.559 --> 0:08:51.319 Once it gets past there, get a little nerve wracking, 0:08:51.320 --> 0:08:52.600 But I think they're going to be able to cover 0:08:52.840 --> 0:08:53.559 a big number. 0:08:53.400 --> 0:08:53.880 In this one. 0:08:54.160 --> 0:08:56.760 Let's move on to my Jets at the Buffalo Bills. 0:08:56.840 --> 0:09:00.360 Bills here are laying one with a total of thirty six. 0:09:00.800 --> 0:09:02.960 This spread is obviously influenced by the fact that the 0:09:03.000 --> 0:09:06.000 Bills have nothing to play for it. They're locked in 0:09:06.080 --> 0:09:08.280 at the number five seed after losing to the Patriots. 0:09:09.240 --> 0:09:12.880 They'll probably wind up playing the Texans in the playoffs. 0:09:12.920 --> 0:09:15.040 But you know, not one hundred percent set. But they're 0:09:15.080 --> 0:09:17.800 really solid football team overall. But you have to think, 0:09:17.880 --> 0:09:19.680 I don't I haven't seen anything on it yet, but 0:09:19.760 --> 0:09:22.040 you have to assume they're gonna be resting the majority 0:09:22.040 --> 0:09:25.360 of their skilled players. Meanwhile, the Jets win against the Steelers, 0:09:25.360 --> 0:09:28.240 helped out mostly by their defense, which remains strong. They've 0:09:28.280 --> 0:09:30.880 been playing. You know, they're a competent football team at 0:09:30.880 --> 0:09:33.200 this point. They're not you know, world beaters or anything 0:09:33.200 --> 0:09:35.120 like that, but they'll put up a game. Buffalo's a 0:09:35.160 --> 0:09:37.120 tough place to play, but again, not sure what to 0:09:37.200 --> 0:09:38.960 do here. I don't think that they've come out and 0:09:38.960 --> 0:09:40.520 said what they're gonna do with their starters. So Bill's 0:09:40.559 --> 0:09:42.280 laying won total thirty six. 0:09:42.679 --> 0:09:45.000 Yeah, So they interviewed Sean McDermott earlier and he basically 0:09:45.000 --> 0:09:46.480 said they're not sure what they're gonna do yet. He's 0:09:46.480 --> 0:09:49.840 still gonna have conversations with the GM in the front office. 0:09:49.920 --> 0:09:51.760 I mean, to me, that just sounds like they're not 0:09:51.800 --> 0:09:53.760 going to play the starters at this point. I feel like, 0:09:53.760 --> 0:09:55.880 you know, you take a Bill O'Brien approach and say, 0:09:55.920 --> 0:09:57.880 you know, we're here to win right away. If that 0:09:58.280 --> 0:10:00.199 there's any kind of hesitation with it, to me, that 0:10:00.280 --> 0:10:02.680 hints that they're gonna be resting as starters. But obviously 0:10:02.760 --> 0:10:05.400 a situation to watch throughout the week. The question just 0:10:05.480 --> 0:10:07.480 is how many starters, because I mean, if it's only 0:10:07.559 --> 0:10:09.520 Josh Allen and they're kind of you know, rolling out 0:10:09.520 --> 0:10:12.800 their first team defense again, that version of the Bills 0:10:12.800 --> 0:10:15.439 could easily still beat this Jets team at home, I. 0:10:15.440 --> 0:10:17.440 Agree, dare you? How dare you? 0:10:19.360 --> 0:10:21.920 I agree with you that they've looked better recently. They've 0:10:21.960 --> 0:10:24.360 won five of seven games, Like that's shocking to me. 0:10:24.440 --> 0:10:28.120 Now they've the wins I've come against Giants, Redskins, Raiders, 0:10:28.520 --> 0:10:31.439 Dolphins and you know Mason Rudolphin, Duck Hodge as the 0:10:31.440 --> 0:10:32.080 Steelers team. 0:10:32.160 --> 0:10:33.920 So not the most impressive victories. 0:10:33.960 --> 0:10:35.480 But what that said, man, Like, you know, you see 0:10:35.480 --> 0:10:38.160 them flash and the defense when they have Jamal Adams 0:10:38.200 --> 0:10:39.920 healthy out there, they can at least make some plays 0:10:39.920 --> 0:10:42.320 to slow down some offenses. I mean, I've touchdown Sam 0:10:42.360 --> 0:10:45.280 Donald through this, Robbie Anderson last week. Just I mean, 0:10:45.320 --> 0:10:47.560 I didn't see Sam Donald without Adam Gaze for at 0:10:47.640 --> 0:10:49.840 least three years before I consider writing that guy off 0:10:49.880 --> 0:10:51.800 because he just makes a couple of throws every every 0:10:51.800 --> 0:10:53.760 week or so that it just makes you shake your 0:10:53.760 --> 0:10:55.319 head because he can he can make any throw on 0:10:55.360 --> 0:10:57.719 the field. But anyway, this spot, I think there's just 0:10:57.760 --> 0:11:00.400 too much uncertainty right now. I'm staying away at the moment. 0:11:00.480 --> 0:11:02.719 I think the Jets should win, but just kind of 0:11:02.720 --> 0:11:04.920 based on what we've seen from them, Buffalo being at 0:11:04.920 --> 0:11:07.800 home and uncertainty around what starters could be out. I'm 0:11:07.800 --> 0:11:09.280 probably just gonna stay away from this one. 0:11:09.480 --> 0:11:11.600 Yeah, I can totally see that. And you know, the 0:11:11.600 --> 0:11:14.040 the most jetsy in thing to do would be to 0:11:14.120 --> 0:11:16.240 go up against all backups and get blown out by 0:11:16.440 --> 0:11:19.040 exactly right. But you know the one thing about the 0:11:19.040 --> 0:11:21.160 Bills is I assume Josh Allen's not gonna play. I mean, 0:11:21.200 --> 0:11:23.120 they've played a couple of tough games. You know, they 0:11:23.120 --> 0:11:25.000 played the Ravens and they played the Patriots. You know, 0:11:25.040 --> 0:11:27.160 some tough games where they're getting beat up. It makes 0:11:27.160 --> 0:11:29.920 sense for them to rest here. But Matt Barkley is 0:11:29.960 --> 0:11:32.920 not like a pushover. You know, he played all right 0:11:33.000 --> 0:11:35.160 when he was in there early this season. Ye, right, 0:11:35.240 --> 0:11:37.080 so he can definitely move the ball. Depending but again 0:11:37.120 --> 0:11:38.960 it depends are you gonna take out John Brown and 0:11:39.000 --> 0:11:40.600 coleb Easley, Like where are we going to be left with? 0:11:40.960 --> 0:11:43.480 I think I'd probably lean towards the Jets. I think 0:11:43.480 --> 0:11:44.800 this is the type of thing that they do to 0:11:44.920 --> 0:11:47.160 hurt their draft position, and they win these sides of games, 0:11:47.160 --> 0:11:50.200 but it's not anything I'm overly excited about, especially with 0:11:50.200 --> 0:11:53.280 the uncertainty. And regardless, Buffalo is a really really difficult 0:11:53.280 --> 0:11:55.520 place to play, especially at this time of year. The 0:11:55.559 --> 0:11:57.920 fans are insane because this is really all they have 0:11:58.080 --> 0:11:59.959 going on, this and the Sabers, and they're going to 0:12:00.200 --> 0:12:02.360 be out there no matter who is under center, and 0:12:02.440 --> 0:12:03.880 they're gonna it's gonna be could. 0:12:03.760 --> 0:12:07.200 So I'm the thinly veiled Afots. 0:12:07.240 --> 0:12:09.200 You got well to be fair man. I went to 0:12:09.240 --> 0:12:11.320 school in Buffalo, all right, I've been there. I know 0:12:11.360 --> 0:12:14.680 how it is. It's crazy, but yeah, again, a divisional 0:12:14.679 --> 0:12:16.880 game like this, whatever. But I do think that the Jets, 0:12:16.920 --> 0:12:19.480 as of right now, I have a little bit on 0:12:19.480 --> 0:12:21.800 the Jets. Right now, I'm assuming they're gonna rest pretty 0:12:21.840 --> 0:12:24.480 significantly most of their starters. But either way, that doesn't 0:12:24.480 --> 0:12:27.760 guarantee victory. Uh, you know for sure. But in the end, 0:12:28.000 --> 0:12:29.840 it's something to wait and see. But I think I'd 0:12:29.840 --> 0:12:31.160 be willing to risk it a little bit on the 0:12:31.240 --> 0:12:33.440 Jets because I do think that they'll probably find a 0:12:33.440 --> 0:12:35.839 way to pull this one out. Let's move on here 0:12:35.840 --> 0:12:38.920 to the Saints. At the Panther, Saints laying thirteen and 0:12:39.040 --> 0:12:40.880 the total at forty seven and a half, so a 0:12:40.920 --> 0:12:43.000 lot up in the air here for the Saints. I 0:12:43.040 --> 0:12:45.800 think they could finish anywhere from the number one seed 0:12:45.840 --> 0:12:48.400 to the number three seat, so they're gonna want to 0:12:48.440 --> 0:12:50.760 win here. They continue to play well despite being hit 0:12:50.840 --> 0:12:54.400 hard by injuries, with their run defense in particular. Meanwhile, 0:12:54.440 --> 0:12:56.920 the Panthers are just terrible right now. They're probably going 0:12:57.000 --> 0:12:59.480 to be down DJ Moore, who left last week early 0:12:59.520 --> 0:13:02.520 on with a concussion. Will Greer is getting another start. 0:13:02.559 --> 0:13:04.960 That does not bode well for their offense. It's going 0:13:05.000 --> 0:13:06.960 to be all about whether they can get Christian McCaffrey 0:13:07.040 --> 0:13:09.040 enough total yards for him to go down in history. 0:13:09.080 --> 0:13:11.760 So Saints laying a big number on the road here 0:13:11.840 --> 0:13:13.920 thirteen with the total at forty seven and a half. 0:13:14.520 --> 0:13:16.120 I was about to say, the only number we'd know 0:13:16.200 --> 0:13:19.160 is that McCaffrey's sixty seven receiving yards to get to 0:13:19.200 --> 0:13:20.439 that one K one K club. 0:13:20.679 --> 0:13:20.880 You know. 0:13:20.920 --> 0:13:22.440 That's so they could be forcing to do. I mean 0:13:22.480 --> 0:13:25.000 they've already started it these last two weeks. I mean, 0:13:25.080 --> 0:13:28.680 fifteen targets for Christian McCaffrey last week, that's just absurd. 0:13:28.720 --> 0:13:30.640 I mean he got all of them though, Man, he 0:13:30.720 --> 0:13:31.440 got all of them. 0:13:31.720 --> 0:13:33.839 Hey man, it's the fact that McCaffrey has done what 0:13:33.880 --> 0:13:35.920 he's done this year with a mix of a hurt 0:13:35.960 --> 0:13:38.679 Cam Newton, Kyle Allen now Will Greer at quarterback is 0:13:38.720 --> 0:13:41.000 just absolutely insane. I just imagine what this guy could 0:13:41.000 --> 0:13:43.320 do in an offense where maybe, you know, all eleven 0:13:43.360 --> 0:13:46.079 guys weren't keen up to stop him every play. But no, 0:13:46.240 --> 0:13:48.640 I don't think nothing in this offense over the past 0:13:48.760 --> 0:13:51.200 like two months has told me that this Panthers team 0:13:51.240 --> 0:13:53.839 is really capable of putting together a complete effort. 0:13:54.000 --> 0:13:55.679 They look competitive at times. 0:13:55.760 --> 0:13:58.080 I mean, they still even though their run defense is 0:13:58.160 --> 0:14:00.640 just easily the worst in the league any metric you 0:14:00.679 --> 0:14:04.120 want to look at, like James Bradberry, Ross Ke Cockrells 0:14:04.120 --> 0:14:06.320 when making some plays lately. They have some talent in 0:14:06.360 --> 0:14:10.120 that secondary, but they just cannot stop anyone on the ground. 0:14:10.160 --> 0:14:12.320 I mean, it's like the Panthers and the Jaguars. If 0:14:12.320 --> 0:14:13.840 you want to make money in DFS, you just play 0:14:13.840 --> 0:14:16.120 whatever running backs are going against those guys. I mean, 0:14:16.120 --> 0:14:18.679 they've allowed twenty nine rushing dutchtownds this year, the Jaguars 0:14:18.720 --> 0:14:20.680 and the only other team even over twenty. It's just 0:14:20.880 --> 0:14:23.160 not even close. Shaq Thompson's banged up. It's not all 0:14:23.200 --> 0:14:25.640 those guys' fault, but they haven't been able to stop anyone. 0:14:25.680 --> 0:14:27.520 And again, you know, like we're talking about with the Chiefs, 0:14:27.560 --> 0:14:30.080 if there's any sort of motivation, that's enough for me. 0:14:30.160 --> 0:14:32.360 So I think the Saints probably roll here. 0:14:32.440 --> 0:14:34.680 Thirteen's a lot like I probably wouldn't put a ton 0:14:34.720 --> 0:14:36.600 now on this, but with that set, man, they're a 0:14:36.600 --> 0:14:38.760 better team. They just beat the Titans by ten in 0:14:38.800 --> 0:14:40.560 a game that they you know, kind of took the 0:14:40.560 --> 0:14:42.600 first half off, and I think, you know, we would 0:14:42.680 --> 0:14:45.240 never confuse the Titans with this Panthers team in terms 0:14:45.240 --> 0:14:45.840 of who's better. 0:14:45.920 --> 0:14:48.040 So I do like Saints minus thirteen. 0:14:48.440 --> 0:14:50.880 Yeah, I am probably going to stay away from this game, 0:14:50.880 --> 0:14:52.560 but I agree if there is a side, it has 0:14:52.600 --> 0:14:53.120 to be the Saints. 0:14:53.160 --> 0:14:54.440 I just can't take that many points, man. 0:14:54.480 --> 0:14:57.000 I mean these games right where there's only one other 0:14:57.040 --> 0:14:58.760 game with a spread like that right now, it's the 0:14:58.800 --> 0:15:01.440 Dolphins Pats, and I certainly have some thoughts on that one. 0:15:01.480 --> 0:15:03.400 This one it's just a game where I can't I'm 0:15:03.400 --> 0:15:06.520 watching Will Greer was painful against the Cults, so I 0:15:06.840 --> 0:15:10.280 can't imagine him keeping this game close. But thirteen points. 0:15:10.160 --> 0:15:11.760 It's one of these things where I look at them 0:15:11.800 --> 0:15:13.600 like the value is probably on the Panthers. There's no 0:15:13.680 --> 0:15:16.200 way I could back the Panthers on this game. If 0:15:16.240 --> 0:15:18.440