WEBVTT - Citi Bonuses and Inflation Worries

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanabek. We're here every day bringing

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<v Speaker 1>Search Bloomberg Global News. So shares of Quest Diagnostics they're

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<v Speaker 1>up roughly almost twenty this year. Company two out with

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<v Speaker 1>some news today about completion of what it is calling

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<v Speaker 1>a next generation lab facility in my own home state

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<v Speaker 1>of New Jersey, which is where the company is based.

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<v Speaker 1>Here to tell us more about the business outlook is

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<v Speaker 1>Steve Roskowski. He's chairman, president CEO Quest Diagnostics. He joins

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<v Speaker 1>us on the phone from ce Caucus, New Jersey. Hey Steve,

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<v Speaker 1>nice to have you here with Tim and myself. How

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<v Speaker 1>are you. I'm doing wealth Care all. Thanks for having

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<v Speaker 1>us well it's great to have you here. Um let's

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<v Speaker 1>talk a little about business before we get into your

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<v Speaker 1>new facility. You did boostlook on the top and bottom

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<v Speaker 1>lines because of stronger testing volumes, Delta increasing testing demand.

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<v Speaker 1>That's certainly one of the big factors. How is business today?

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<v Speaker 1>Are you starting to see that trail off as we

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<v Speaker 1>see um us kind of get maybe a little bit

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<v Speaker 1>more control of the Delta variant. Yeah, So, pierrol Is,

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<v Speaker 1>as we entered twenty one, we expected that our COVID

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<v Speaker 1>volumes would come down in the first half, and what

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<v Speaker 1>we did see was exactly that. But then in the

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<v Speaker 1>month of June we started to see it pick up

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<v Speaker 1>in response to the Delta variant, and we updated our

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<v Speaker 1>expectation of the back half for COVID and we said

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<v Speaker 1>at the low end of our outlook that we would

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<v Speaker 1>expect about forty tests per day in the back off

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<v Speaker 1>of Is that a lot? Give us some perspective. I

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<v Speaker 1>have no idea as a huge give an idea of scale.

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<v Speaker 1>Back in the the early days of one, we're doing

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<v Speaker 1>about a hundred thousand tests per day, so we were

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<v Speaker 1>down considerably coming out of the second quarter, down to

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<v Speaker 1>about thirty forty thousand tests per day, and that number

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<v Speaker 1>has come up and we've been approaching thousand tests per day,

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<v Speaker 1>so some portion of the third quarter. But we do

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<v Speaker 1>expect as we start to see the infection rates coming

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<v Speaker 1>down and typically are testing volumes following infection rates, that

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<v Speaker 1>that will slow somewhat in the back half of the

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<v Speaker 1>second half. So so we're saying higher than expected volumes

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<v Speaker 1>as we entered the year for COVID and we're right

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<v Speaker 1>in the middle of it in the third quarter. We

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<v Speaker 1>will now its earnings in October, and we do expect

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<v Speaker 1>that that number will come down and back after give

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<v Speaker 1>us that low end of the outlook of forty tests

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<v Speaker 1>per day. See where does that number stabilize. Where is

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<v Speaker 1>that number a year from now. Well, it's a good

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<v Speaker 1>question because we're watching, you know, the delta variant and

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<v Speaker 1>and also its relationship UH to the vaccines, relationship to

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<v Speaker 1>nactual immunity, what's happening elsewhere in the in the world.

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<v Speaker 1>And when we had our investor day in the spring,

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<v Speaker 1>what we said is that, yes, we believe COVID will

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<v Speaker 1>slow down this year, but it's not going away. We're

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<v Speaker 1>gonna be seeing this in twenty two and beyond we

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<v Speaker 1>will we believe it's going to become more flu like

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<v Speaker 1>and that's going to be you know, a portion of

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<v Speaker 1>our testing portfolio going forward, and we do believe it's

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<v Speaker 1>for our diagnostic testing to determine where the COVID or

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<v Speaker 1>not and we run primarily the PCR test, which is

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<v Speaker 1>the gold standard, but will also include the whole portfolio

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<v Speaker 1>that we have brought out and will continue to build

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<v Speaker 1>down around strology testing, which tests for the antibodies to

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<v Speaker 1>determine whether the vaccine is working or whether you have

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<v Speaker 1>immunity in some form. And what's happened to the menu

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<v Speaker 1>over time. Hey see, if you have an amazing amount

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<v Speaker 1>of data, given what you do, you understand where hotspots

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<v Speaker 1>are emerging. You understand which areas that you have testing

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<v Speaker 1>facilities in or you get specimens from, are seeing a

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<v Speaker 1>rise in cases. What do you know before regulators know?

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<v Speaker 1>What do you know before public health officials know? And

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<v Speaker 1>how do you communicate what you find out to them? Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>so we have we have a reporting requirement for all

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<v Speaker 1>infectious diseases that we had in place before COVID, and

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<v Speaker 1>whether it's HIV or hepatitis B or C. We had

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<v Speaker 1>to report that data to public health officials and that's

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<v Speaker 1>around the country in every state. And actually we we

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<v Speaker 1>reported into about eight hundred different look patients throughout the

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<v Speaker 1>country all our results. So when we have a positive

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<v Speaker 1>PCR test for COVID, we provide that information to public

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<v Speaker 1>health officials, so they pretty much have that information at

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<v Speaker 1>the same time that we're seeing and once we resulted

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<v Speaker 1>because we reported on a daily basis to these reporting entities.

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<v Speaker 1>So tell us about this new testing facility in New Jersey,

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<v Speaker 1>my home state of New Jersey. Um, what can you

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<v Speaker 1>tell us about it? And I'm curious about Um, it

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<v Speaker 1>was in the works from what I understand ahead of COVID,

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<v Speaker 1>but it sounds like you picked up, ramped up getting

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<v Speaker 1>it done. What does it mean in terms of your productivity,

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<v Speaker 1>ability to process, diagnostic to taste testing, and what does

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<v Speaker 1>it mean ultimately for top and bottom lines. Yeah, we

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<v Speaker 1>were excited about it, So, Carol, we we have been

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<v Speaker 1>on a march to continuously improve our business and we've

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<v Speaker 1>been as a company working on two strategies. One us

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<v Speaker 1>to continue to build programs that support accelerating and growth,

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<v Speaker 1>and that's underpinned with a belief that our operations need

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<v Speaker 1>to continue to get stronger, and we call that operational excellence.

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<v Speaker 1>And as part of that, we've been striving for three

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<v Speaker 1>percent productivity improvement per year and our view on productivity

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<v Speaker 1>improvement and it does not come without improvement in quality

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<v Speaker 1>and service performance. And so as part of that program,

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<v Speaker 1>we actually invested in the new facility in Clifton, New Jersey. UH.

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<v Speaker 1>It affords us an opportunity to consolidate a number of

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<v Speaker 1>our smaller facilities into one larger facility. It also allows

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<v Speaker 1>us to harmonize our processes and put in common systems

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<v Speaker 1>across the company, and it also allows us to put

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<v Speaker 1>in new automation and in testing capacity. Tasty Um, you're

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<v Speaker 1>telling us about this new UH next generation lab facility facility.

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<v Speaker 1>You guys use the word next generation. What makes it

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<v Speaker 1>next generation? Yeah, Carol, we're excited about it in many

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<v Speaker 1>different ways. First of all, it's one of our largest

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<v Speaker 1>facilities in the country. It's going to serve about seven states,

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<v Speaker 1>will serve about forty million people, give us capacity of

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<v Speaker 1>about three hundred thousand tests per day, so it's big.

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<v Speaker 1>And secondly, is because of the automation and and the

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<v Speaker 1>ability for us to do more integrated testing. It's going

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<v Speaker 1>to allow us to even improve the quality and the

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<v Speaker 1>service performance and productivity that we have today. So we're

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<v Speaker 1>quite excited about it coming online. We invested about two

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<v Speaker 1>fifty million dollars in this project, and actually we started

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<v Speaker 1>a little bit of the construction before the pandemic, but

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<v Speaker 1>it was just remarkable how we completed it despite the pandemic,

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<v Speaker 1>and it's up and running today, so we're very proud

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<v Speaker 1>of that. Hey, how much of it are increasingly Is

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<v Speaker 1>it helped me out here? I'm not an expert on this,

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<v Speaker 1>you are. How much is automated? Is all of it automated?

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<v Speaker 1>That not entirely. If you go into a lab environment

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<v Speaker 1>and you still see a lot of people in a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of manual labor. But what's happened over time, Carol,

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<v Speaker 1>is some processes have been automated by some of our suppliers.

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<v Speaker 1>We actually have over two hundred suppliers that provide equipment

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<v Speaker 1>in capabilities into this laboratory. So they do some consolidation

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<v Speaker 1>and automation, and then we bring down bring together some

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<v Speaker 1>of those work cells. Because you're doing multiple tests on

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<v Speaker 1>a common specimen. So when you get inside of a laboratory.

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<v Speaker 1>You have a common collection area that you sort out

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<v Speaker 1>those specimens and then you put those in each of

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<v Speaker 1>their work cells. Each of those work celles have become

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<v Speaker 1>more automated over time, but I'll share with you, even

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<v Speaker 1>though we're very proud of what we've done here, there's

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<v Speaker 1>more of that work we believe we can do going forward. Employees,

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<v Speaker 1>are you hiring more? Are you finding it? We brought

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<v Speaker 1>to be hiring about a thousand people. Some of these

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<v Speaker 1>people came from our existing UH facilities. We had a

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<v Speaker 1>large facility interior Borrow that we consolidd over to Clifton,

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<v Speaker 1>So we're happy that those people will join us in Clifton.

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<v Speaker 1>But we're also bringing in some more people as well,

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<v Speaker 1>So about a thousand people. Hey, Steve, I'm wondering about

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<v Speaker 1>home testing. There's been a big movement during the pandemic

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<v Speaker 1>when it comes to home diagnostic testing, and indeed, the

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<v Speaker 1>Biden administration said recently we'd spend a billion dollars to

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<v Speaker 1>boost the supply of rapid COVID tests. I'm wondering how

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<v Speaker 1>you think about the rising home testing now we've seen

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<v Speaker 1>not just for COVID but for other elements too. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>we um we've been in in the home testing business

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<v Speaker 1>before the pandemic. We actually developed and implemented a program

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<v Speaker 1>called Quest Direct back about three years ago. We're where

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<v Speaker 1>you offer through our direct platform the capability for a

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<v Speaker 1>consumer to buy laboratory testing and some of this could

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<v Speaker 1>be uh, your standard cholesterol tests. We called it a

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<v Speaker 1>LIMPID panel or testing for diabetes that standard test aeroby

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<v Speaker 1>glucose or human globe and able and see and consumers

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<v Speaker 1>can buy this directly online and we will then guide

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<v Speaker 1>them through the process of getting there their blood collected,

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<v Speaker 1>and then we resulted in a smart OPA called my

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<v Speaker 1>Quest and what we found before the pandemic there was

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<v Speaker 1>a market, but during the pandemic the market has actually

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<v Speaker 1>has grown considerably. And that's for the what we call

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<v Speaker 1>our base business testing. But on top of this platform,

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<v Speaker 1>we incorporated what we're doing around covid as well, So

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<v Speaker 1>the ability for people to get a PCR test or

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<v Speaker 1>a strology test is on this direct platform as well.

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<v Speaker 1>And and with COVID, the gold standard is what we

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<v Speaker 1>have been discussing, which is referred to as pc are

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<v Speaker 1>right well, we also are providing antigen testing, which is

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<v Speaker 1>the is the at home capability where you can do

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<v Speaker 1>the specimen collection yourself and you can actually do some

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<v Speaker 1>of the reporting it through some of the applications that

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<v Speaker 1>are provided. And we do believe there is a place

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<v Speaker 1>for those antigen tests in the management of COVID going forward,

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<v Speaker 1>and we pride those to consumers as well as two employers. Hey, Steve,

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<v Speaker 1>We've got to run, but really appreciate checking in with

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<v Speaker 1>you about the new facility and the outlook for your business.

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<v Speaker 1>De Roskowsky, CEO of our Quest Diagnostics, on the phone

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<v Speaker 1>in cy Caucus. You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week Karl

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<v Speaker 1>Master along with Tim Stanivic and Bloomberg Interactive Broker's Studio. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>Stephen Miller, fixture in the Trump administration known for being

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<v Speaker 1>the architect of then President Donald Trump's anti immigration policies,

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<v Speaker 1>is now bringing that crusade to the court. So let's

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<v Speaker 1>get more on what he's doing. It's a story to

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<v Speaker 1>be in the new issue of Bloomberg Business Week out

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<v Speaker 1>later this week, online and on the Bloomberg Let's bring

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<v Speaker 1>in Bloomberg Business wee Get or Chill Weber in our

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<v Speaker 1>Interactive Broker studio along with Eric Larson, who is US

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<v Speaker 1>legal reporter at Bloomberg News. He's on the phone in Brooklyn,

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<v Speaker 1>Stephen Miller. I thought this was really interesting because it's

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<v Speaker 1>sort of like the rights answer for a c l

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<v Speaker 1>U UM. And you know, the central question that I

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<v Speaker 1>wanted to raise with Eric is like, is this for

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<v Speaker 1>real or these are is a legal community looking at

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<v Speaker 1>these cases is something that has you know, real legal

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<v Speaker 1>merit or is this more of a of a way

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<v Speaker 1>of you know, drumming up support for Trump and in

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<v Speaker 1>a in a fundraising sort of sense. Well, to be honest,

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<v Speaker 1>it seems like it could be a little bit of

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<v Speaker 1>boats that. Certainly the views that I got from some

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<v Speaker 1>of the folks that I that I spoke with when

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<v Speaker 1>writing this story. You know, it's a brand new group,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, just started in April and already you know,

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<v Speaker 1>there's these comparisons to the a c l U, which

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<v Speaker 1>has been around, you know forever UM and saying that

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<v Speaker 1>it's this right, the right answer to the A c

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<v Speaker 1>l U. And uh, they do seem to be making

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<v Speaker 1>that that pretty seriously. They you know, like you mentioned,

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<v Speaker 1>they spiled some lawsuits against the Biden administration right off

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<v Speaker 1>the bat um you know, there they have several cases

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<v Speaker 1>pending actually, and they actually got a little bit of

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<v Speaker 1>traction um in a couple of the cases where injunctions

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<v Speaker 1>uh were actually that they had requested were granted. UM.

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<v Speaker 1>And they're finding a lot of Freedom of Information Act requests.

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<v Speaker 1>You can see it all up on their website. You know,

0:13:25.640 --> 0:13:28.720
<v Speaker 1>it's it's pretty NonStop. And of course they're making regular

0:13:29.040 --> 0:13:32.480
<v Speaker 1>television appearances on Fox News and news Max and O

0:13:32.679 --> 0:13:35.640
<v Speaker 1>A N so. UM, they're definitely drumming up a lot

0:13:35.679 --> 0:13:38.360
<v Speaker 1>of supports. Hey, Eric, take a step back and remind

0:13:38.360 --> 0:13:41.120
<v Speaker 1>people who Stephen Miller is. I mean, people who follow

0:13:41.320 --> 0:13:44.520
<v Speaker 1>politics closely remember him, but take us back to what

0:13:44.520 --> 0:13:48.319
<v Speaker 1>he did during the Trump administration, what he was responsible for. Sure.

0:13:48.520 --> 0:13:51.199
<v Speaker 1>So Stephen Miller, he's he's very six years old. And

0:13:51.280 --> 0:13:55.559
<v Speaker 1>during the Trump Trump's term, he was a speech writer,

0:13:55.760 --> 0:13:58.439
<v Speaker 1>he was a senior White House aid and I think

0:13:58.480 --> 0:14:00.360
<v Speaker 1>a lot of people have you know, hadn't heard of

0:14:00.440 --> 0:14:02.640
<v Speaker 1>him before. Um, And all of a sudden he kind

0:14:02.679 --> 0:14:06.640
<v Speaker 1>of had this fairly prominent behind the scenes job. And

0:14:06.720 --> 0:14:09.600
<v Speaker 1>as then President Trump was coming out with some of

0:14:09.600 --> 0:14:14.280
<v Speaker 1>his pretty hardline immigration policies, UM, folks started to backtrack

0:14:14.320 --> 0:14:16.360
<v Speaker 1>and look where these were coming from. And they seem

0:14:16.400 --> 0:14:19.120
<v Speaker 1>to be coming from this guy named Steven miller Um.

0:14:19.240 --> 0:14:22.920
<v Speaker 1>So he sort of had a long history of being uh,

0:14:23.000 --> 0:14:26.480
<v Speaker 1>you know anti immigration, very America First you know, becains

0:14:26.520 --> 0:14:30.000
<v Speaker 1>the name of this organization, America First Legal, and he

0:14:30.120 --> 0:14:33.920
<v Speaker 1>was the architect of, for example, the Muslim band um

0:14:33.960 --> 0:14:36.760
<v Speaker 1>that was so contentious and so devisive during the start

0:14:36.800 --> 0:14:40.160
<v Speaker 1>of Trump's presidency, and also the you know, the child's

0:14:40.280 --> 0:14:43.720
<v Speaker 1>family separation policies and things like that. So his fingerprints

0:14:43.720 --> 0:14:47.320
<v Speaker 1>were on a lot of that. So his efforts is

0:14:47.360 --> 0:14:49.600
<v Speaker 1>it all about you know, taking all of these matters

0:14:49.600 --> 0:14:52.080
<v Speaker 1>to the courts or is this about really keeping Trump

0:14:52.160 --> 0:14:55.840
<v Speaker 1>voters engaged and pumped up? Um? You know again, I

0:14:55.840 --> 0:14:57.880
<v Speaker 1>think I really do think it's it's both. He is

0:14:57.920 --> 0:15:01.240
<v Speaker 1>going to courts. Um. They are all of the people

0:15:01.280 --> 0:15:03.920
<v Speaker 1>involved in this. It's not just you know miller Um

0:15:04.520 --> 0:15:09.400
<v Speaker 1>behind this organization. Um. He's also got you know, Matthew Whittaker,

0:15:09.440 --> 0:15:12.040
<v Speaker 1>who is acting Attorney General under Trump is part of

0:15:12.080 --> 0:15:16.520
<v Speaker 1>this organization as this. Former Trump Chief of Staff Mark Meadows,

0:15:16.560 --> 0:15:19.480
<v Speaker 1>and former Office of Management and Budget director Russ Spots.

0:15:19.520 --> 0:15:21.720
<v Speaker 1>So there's a lot of names behind here. They are

0:15:21.800 --> 0:15:24.400
<v Speaker 1>definitely you know, doing a lot of fundraising, asking for

0:15:24.400 --> 0:15:26.560
<v Speaker 1>a lot of money and using these very divisive issues

0:15:26.600 --> 0:15:29.560
<v Speaker 1>to try to engage Trump voters. But they are also

0:15:29.680 --> 0:15:32.600
<v Speaker 1>going to court and trying to you know, as they

0:15:32.600 --> 0:15:35.480
<v Speaker 1>say it on their website, basically save America from the left.

0:15:36.240 --> 0:15:39.120
<v Speaker 1>And so what kind of cross pollination are we seeing

0:15:39.160 --> 0:15:44.160
<v Speaker 1>between Miller's cases and his cause here in the in

0:15:44.240 --> 0:15:49.440
<v Speaker 1>the Trump fundraising machine. No, I I don't know exactly

0:15:49.640 --> 0:15:53.800
<v Speaker 1>because we don't have any insight into their financials. We

0:15:53.840 --> 0:15:58.640
<v Speaker 1>know that when America First Legal Foundation first you know, launch,

0:15:58.720 --> 0:16:01.480
<v Speaker 1>their first press release was a quote from Trump praising

0:16:01.520 --> 0:16:04.600
<v Speaker 1>Stephen Miller personally and saying, what a great organization this is.

0:16:05.240 --> 0:16:07.440
<v Speaker 1>Uh So, as far as what, you know, how much

0:16:07.440 --> 0:16:09.240
<v Speaker 1>money they've raised, and how it might compare to how

0:16:09.320 --> 0:16:12.280
<v Speaker 1>much money Trump has raised, of course huge amounts of money. Um,

0:16:12.280 --> 0:16:14.400
<v Speaker 1>it's really unclear. I spoke with some people who are

0:16:14.480 --> 0:16:17.040
<v Speaker 1>very critical of American First Legal. Of course there are

0:16:17.040 --> 0:16:20.480
<v Speaker 1>people on on the left who are opposed ideologically, but

0:16:20.520 --> 0:16:23.440
<v Speaker 1>they say that Miller and these other folks are basically

0:16:23.880 --> 0:16:26.400
<v Speaker 1>you know, found that this too, you know, get as

0:16:26.440 --> 0:16:29.440
<v Speaker 1>much money as possible from Trump supporters to sort of

0:16:29.520 --> 0:16:32.120
<v Speaker 1>get a nice paycheck and wait, for the next election

0:16:32.160 --> 0:16:35.280
<v Speaker 1>when Republicans might you know, somehow come back into power. Um.

0:16:35.320 --> 0:16:37.160
<v Speaker 1>So it's very you know, cynical views are out there

0:16:37.200 --> 0:16:39.840
<v Speaker 1>of what of what's going on here. But for as

0:16:39.920 --> 0:16:42.000
<v Speaker 1>much money as they might be raising, like I said,

0:16:42.040 --> 0:16:44.040
<v Speaker 1>they do seem to be doing quite a bit of

0:16:44.080 --> 0:16:47.560
<v Speaker 1>work as well. They've they're not just focused on immigration

0:16:47.640 --> 0:16:51.520
<v Speaker 1>by any stretch. They're going after everything from LGBT rights,

0:16:52.360 --> 0:16:57.360
<v Speaker 1>transgender rights, uh uh, in healthcare and employment, um, trying

0:16:57.360 --> 0:17:02.440
<v Speaker 1>to remove protections there, uh and in filing all of

0:17:02.440 --> 0:17:05.439
<v Speaker 1>these Freedom of Information Act requests, trying to expose what

0:17:05.480 --> 0:17:08.840
<v Speaker 1>they think is wrong doing related to everything from you know,

0:17:08.880 --> 0:17:11.920
<v Speaker 1>the closing down the investigation into the origins of COVID

0:17:12.359 --> 0:17:16.640
<v Speaker 1>to alleged attempts to you know, dismantle ice there all

0:17:16.640 --> 0:17:18.840
<v Speaker 1>over the place. As you right, Eric, the group is

0:17:18.880 --> 0:17:22.280
<v Speaker 1>also challenging pandemic AID that's earmarked for minority owned firms.

0:17:22.320 --> 0:17:24.800
<v Speaker 1>You spoke to a fourth generation black farmer who's the

0:17:24.800 --> 0:17:28.320
<v Speaker 1>founder and president of the National Black Farmers Association, John Boyd.

0:17:28.480 --> 0:17:31.040
<v Speaker 1>Um what is what is the group trying to do

0:17:31.119 --> 0:17:34.440
<v Speaker 1>and what does he say about Stephen Miller and his

0:17:34.480 --> 0:17:37.720
<v Speaker 1>groups attempt to do it well? You know, he was

0:17:37.760 --> 0:17:43.000
<v Speaker 1>really offended. H He his organization intervened in Stephen Miller's

0:17:43.040 --> 0:17:46.000
<v Speaker 1>lawsuit against the Biden administration. Um, you know, in that

0:17:46.119 --> 0:17:51.240
<v Speaker 1>huge pandemic relief bill, there was some large chunks of

0:17:51.240 --> 0:17:55.280
<v Speaker 1>money earmarked for minority owned restaurants and another provision was

0:17:55.359 --> 0:18:00.440
<v Speaker 1>for minority owned farmers and ranchers. And Stephen Miller suit

0:18:00.560 --> 0:18:03.119
<v Speaker 1>saying that no money should be given, they shouldn't be

0:18:03.160 --> 0:18:06.400
<v Speaker 1>given any preference based on race. That that would literally discrimination,

0:18:06.520 --> 0:18:09.840
<v Speaker 1>racial discrimination against white people, is how he described it.

0:18:10.240 --> 0:18:13.200
<v Speaker 1>And John Boyd, who has been part of this organization

0:18:13.240 --> 0:18:15.919
<v Speaker 1>for so long, who founded it, he just said it

0:18:15.960 --> 0:18:17.800
<v Speaker 1>was really offensive and so that there's just been this

0:18:17.960 --> 0:18:21.520
<v Speaker 1>long history of government discrimination at the federal level and

0:18:21.560 --> 0:18:24.320
<v Speaker 1>that the Congress was just trying to do a little

0:18:24.359 --> 0:18:28.000
<v Speaker 1>bit too right that wrong through some equity programs on

0:18:28.119 --> 0:18:30.919
<v Speaker 1>Stephen Miller sees those equity programs as kind of a

0:18:30.920 --> 0:18:35.560
<v Speaker 1>dirty word. And he basically encouraged said Stephen Miller should

0:18:35.600 --> 0:18:37.600
<v Speaker 1>live a day as a black man, he probably wouldn't

0:18:37.880 --> 0:18:41.240
<v Speaker 1>hold these views, is what he said. Uh, it's like

0:18:41.640 --> 0:18:45.440
<v Speaker 1>Miller is like such the perfect boogeyman for for the left,

0:18:45.520 --> 0:18:47.480
<v Speaker 1>you know, and It's like, I also can't imagine like

0:18:47.520 --> 0:18:50.919
<v Speaker 1>a more perfect person to be kind of attempting to

0:18:51.040 --> 0:18:55.080
<v Speaker 1>lead the Trump kind of legal machinations post presidency. It's

0:18:55.119 --> 0:18:57.359
<v Speaker 1>just like everything you know about Trump in the courts

0:18:57.480 --> 0:18:59.679
<v Speaker 1>is just like just you know, muck it up and

0:18:59.720 --> 0:19:03.760
<v Speaker 1>slow it down and make it painful. Um uh, you know, well,

0:19:03.800 --> 0:19:05.400
<v Speaker 1>I guess we'll we'll have to kind of see how

0:19:05.400 --> 0:19:07.879
<v Speaker 1>some of these end up playing out. Where are if

0:19:07.920 --> 0:19:11.080
<v Speaker 1>there's a case to watch that sort of embodies, um,

0:19:11.080 --> 0:19:13.639
<v Speaker 1>what Miller's up to? What what do you think that

0:19:13.640 --> 0:19:16.800
<v Speaker 1>would be? Eric? And Eric really quickly though, Yeah, he

0:19:17.160 --> 0:19:19.879
<v Speaker 1>the Texas Abortion Band case. His group is now involved

0:19:19.880 --> 0:19:23.719
<v Speaker 1>in not representing some opponents to abortion. They're like interveners

0:19:23.760 --> 0:19:25.879
<v Speaker 1>in the case. And he's, uh, I think he's going

0:19:25.920 --> 0:19:27.800
<v Speaker 1>to be definitely trying to make his voice heard in

0:19:27.840 --> 0:19:30.840
<v Speaker 1>that lass. You guys, that progresses. The world just gets

0:19:30.880 --> 0:19:32.880
<v Speaker 1>more and more interesting. Till Webber, thank you so much.

0:19:33.000 --> 0:19:35.679
<v Speaker 1>Editor at Bloomberg business Week. Here in our interactive broker studio,

0:19:35.760 --> 0:19:38.000
<v Speaker 1>Eric Larson check out a story. He's US legal reporter

0:19:38.040 --> 0:19:41.800
<v Speaker 1>at Bloomberg News. On the phone from Brooklyn. You're listening

0:19:41.800 --> 0:19:44.679
<v Speaker 1>to Bloomberg Business Week Carol Masser Tim Stinovic coming up

0:19:44.720 --> 0:19:51.760
<v Speaker 1>one of the most read stories on the Bloomberg. This

0:19:52.160 --> 0:19:55.920
<v Speaker 1>is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg Quick

0:19:55.960 --> 0:20:00.399
<v Speaker 1>Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. So this is one

0:20:00.400 --> 0:20:02.520
<v Speaker 1>of our most read stories on the Bloomberg today. It's

0:20:02.560 --> 0:20:05.080
<v Speaker 1>but a little notice change to city groups rewards for

0:20:05.119 --> 0:20:07.480
<v Speaker 1>top execs, and how it is set off. One of

0:20:07.520 --> 0:20:11.320
<v Speaker 1>the bank's most prominent detractors, Jenny Seraine, is joining us.

0:20:11.320 --> 0:20:13.320
<v Speaker 1>She's finance reporter for Bloomberg New She's with us in

0:20:13.359 --> 0:20:17.160
<v Speaker 1>the Bloomberg Interactive Broker studios. So we're in leather, looking

0:20:17.160 --> 0:20:21.200
<v Speaker 1>pretty wild, loving it YouTube you can see the leather jacket.

0:20:21.240 --> 0:20:25.200
<v Speaker 1>I'm loving it. Thank you, You're welcome. Jenny. What is this?

0:20:25.520 --> 0:20:28.240
<v Speaker 1>What was this change in the regulatory filing? And and

0:20:28.400 --> 0:20:32.160
<v Speaker 1>why is Wells Fargo's Mike Mayo drawing attention to it? Yeah,

0:20:32.320 --> 0:20:34.359
<v Speaker 1>it was interesting because it was very little notice. It

0:20:34.440 --> 0:20:38.679
<v Speaker 1>came out on a quiet summer Friday. Um, so that

0:20:38.760 --> 0:20:40.800
<v Speaker 1>was part of his concern, But I think his bigger

0:20:40.840 --> 0:20:43.919
<v Speaker 1>concern was really just you know, they're setting up a

0:20:43.920 --> 0:20:47.240
<v Speaker 1>new bonus program for some of their new CEO Jane

0:20:47.240 --> 0:20:50.840
<v Speaker 1>Fraser's her top deputies, so um popular Bara he's their

0:20:50.840 --> 0:20:53.719
<v Speaker 1>head of Institutional Clients group chief fin inch Officer, Mike Mason,

0:20:54.280 --> 0:20:57.800
<v Speaker 1>the head of Enterprise Ops and Tech, Mike Whittaker. They're

0:20:57.840 --> 0:21:01.240
<v Speaker 1>all eligible for five million dollars apiece over the next

0:21:01.240 --> 0:21:03.720
<v Speaker 1>few years if they can hit some targets around where

0:21:03.760 --> 0:21:05.760
<v Speaker 1>the stock price goes and what city is doing to

0:21:05.800 --> 0:21:08.600
<v Speaker 1>clean up the bank. Um but wells Fargo's a big

0:21:08.640 --> 0:21:10.960
<v Speaker 1>issue with this is just that sad he didn't really

0:21:10.960 --> 0:21:13.439
<v Speaker 1>disclose what those targets were. So there's you know, a

0:21:13.440 --> 0:21:15.560
<v Speaker 1>lot of specificity on the money at State, but not

0:21:15.600 --> 0:21:18.240
<v Speaker 1>a lot of specificity on the targets themselves. And so

0:21:18.560 --> 0:21:20.640
<v Speaker 1>he's just calling fresh attention to this, saying they need

0:21:20.680 --> 0:21:23.280
<v Speaker 1>to do better. I got to read the quote that's like, please,

0:21:23.560 --> 0:21:25.560
<v Speaker 1>you guys all know what I'm gonna read. He Mike

0:21:25.600 --> 0:21:27.719
<v Speaker 1>Mayo said in an other client's quote, that's like charging

0:21:27.760 --> 0:21:30.160
<v Speaker 1>us for dinner before we know if we're getting hot

0:21:30.160 --> 0:21:33.800
<v Speaker 1>dogs or caviare Well, this is someone who's been a

0:21:33.800 --> 0:21:36.159
<v Speaker 1>critic our city. Correct. Yes, we'll know Mike Mayo. The

0:21:36.160 --> 0:21:38.080
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg audience knows who he is. He was just on

0:21:38.119 --> 0:21:40.880
<v Speaker 1>TV passing around popcorn. We'll talk about that later. Yes,

0:21:40.920 --> 0:21:43.959
<v Speaker 1>So he's very known for his very fiery exchanges with

0:21:44.040 --> 0:21:47.040
<v Speaker 1>City Group executives for a long long time. Now, UM

0:21:47.040 --> 0:21:48.639
<v Speaker 1>has been covering this stock for a while, you know,

0:21:48.720 --> 0:21:51.920
<v Speaker 1>interestingly he has um he's actually overweight on the stock.

0:21:51.960 --> 0:21:54.800
<v Speaker 1>He's recommending that this is a bye. So you know,

0:21:55.640 --> 0:21:57.480
<v Speaker 1>there's I think a little bit of good and a

0:21:57.520 --> 0:21:59.000
<v Speaker 1>little bit of bad here. He thinks there's a long

0:21:59.040 --> 0:22:01.080
<v Speaker 1>way for this this company to go, and he seems

0:22:01.080 --> 0:22:03.199
<v Speaker 1>to believe that their new CEO, Jane Fraser, is a

0:22:03.280 --> 0:22:06.000
<v Speaker 1>change agent that can accomplish that. But Um, you know,

0:22:06.040 --> 0:22:07.879
<v Speaker 1>still holding their their feet to the fire on this.

0:22:08.119 --> 0:22:10.199
<v Speaker 1>So help me out. I mean, this happens, right, I

0:22:10.240 --> 0:22:12.720
<v Speaker 1>mean a lot of firms, a lot of companies in general,

0:22:12.840 --> 0:22:16.960
<v Speaker 1>publicly held companies, pick your industry. There are centives that

0:22:17.000 --> 0:22:19.919
<v Speaker 1>are giving to senior execs to bring about X y

0:22:20.000 --> 0:22:22.480
<v Speaker 1>Z at a company. Is it just that it came

0:22:22.480 --> 0:22:25.560
<v Speaker 1>out late on a summer Friday. What is it that's

0:22:25.640 --> 0:22:28.879
<v Speaker 1>so different or troubling? I think just the fact that

0:22:28.920 --> 0:22:31.359
<v Speaker 1>there's not a lot of disclosure around what these targets

0:22:31.400 --> 0:22:33.760
<v Speaker 1>actually are. Like, what are you hoping your stock price

0:22:33.760 --> 0:22:36.520
<v Speaker 1>will get to what are they really responsible for in

0:22:36.520 --> 0:22:38.640
<v Speaker 1>this turnaround at City? You know, it's important to remember

0:22:38.920 --> 0:22:41.359
<v Speaker 1>City is in the middle of a year's long overhaul

0:22:41.400 --> 0:22:44.600
<v Speaker 1>of all of their internal systems ordered by regulators late

0:22:44.680 --> 0:22:47.600
<v Speaker 1>last year. Uh, this is a really important time for them,

0:22:47.640 --> 0:22:49.840
<v Speaker 1>and it's important that they have their executives on board

0:22:49.880 --> 0:22:52.040
<v Speaker 1>and that they have skin in the game and accomplishing that.

0:22:52.119 --> 0:22:53.960
<v Speaker 1>But they need to be really clear, I think with

0:22:54.040 --> 0:22:56.000
<v Speaker 1>investors exactly what they're hoping to get out of this.

0:22:56.080 --> 0:22:58.000
<v Speaker 1>All right, Two things, One would say, that's your job.

0:22:58.000 --> 0:22:59.720
<v Speaker 1>Why do you need to be incented with a bonus

0:22:59.720 --> 0:23:02.000
<v Speaker 1>to do it? Secondly, because you're such a great reporter,

0:23:02.040 --> 0:23:04.280
<v Speaker 1>I'm assuming at some point you've recently reached out to

0:23:04.320 --> 0:23:06.000
<v Speaker 1>City about this and said, what's the deal? What are

0:23:06.040 --> 0:23:09.960
<v Speaker 1>the metrics? Yeah, so we've reached out for comment they declined. UM,

0:23:10.000 --> 0:23:11.919
<v Speaker 1>and I think, you know, we have an investor day

0:23:11.960 --> 0:23:13.800
<v Speaker 1>set for next year where I think a lot more

0:23:14.040 --> 0:23:17.000
<v Speaker 1>information will get shared about this. UM. They just announced

0:23:17.040 --> 0:23:18.720
<v Speaker 1>that it's gonna be on March second, so that's about

0:23:18.760 --> 0:23:21.640
<v Speaker 1>a year after Jane took over. UM, so we'll see.

0:23:21.680 --> 0:23:23.159
<v Speaker 1>I think we're going to get more and more. But

0:23:23.600 --> 0:23:25.520
<v Speaker 1>a lot of times with this regulatory stuff. You know,

0:23:25.640 --> 0:23:27.639
<v Speaker 1>cities hands are really tied in terms of what they

0:23:27.640 --> 0:23:31.480
<v Speaker 1>can actually say. Their regulators keep it very very tightly controlled. Um.

0:23:31.520 --> 0:23:32.879
<v Speaker 1>So I do, you know, have a little bit of

0:23:32.880 --> 0:23:34.800
<v Speaker 1>sympathy for them on the one hand, But on the

0:23:34.800 --> 0:23:36.840
<v Speaker 1>other hand, we're journalists. We like uh, we like a

0:23:36.840 --> 0:23:39.040
<v Speaker 1>lot of transparency. So I think there's a little bit

0:23:39.040 --> 0:23:40.720
<v Speaker 1>of a balancing work that city has to do here.

0:23:40.720 --> 0:23:42.800
<v Speaker 1>And you know, Mike Mayo is just saying they've come

0:23:42.840 --> 0:23:44.880
<v Speaker 1>out on the wrong side on this one. Well characterized

0:23:44.920 --> 0:23:48.120
<v Speaker 1>for us, Jenny, what the challenges the bank is faced

0:23:48.119 --> 0:23:51.359
<v Speaker 1>in recent years and what Fraser is trying to do. Yeah,

0:23:51.440 --> 0:23:54.080
<v Speaker 1>so the consent orders that they got hit with last

0:23:54.119 --> 0:23:56.360
<v Speaker 1>year were really about a lot of the underlying risk

0:23:56.440 --> 0:23:59.520
<v Speaker 1>management and internal controls, and so that's the stuff that

0:23:59.560 --> 0:24:02.639
<v Speaker 1>you know, runs all of the kind of underlying operations

0:24:02.640 --> 0:24:05.160
<v Speaker 1>and really everything the bank does with our data and

0:24:05.160 --> 0:24:07.400
<v Speaker 1>and all this stuff. So this is a big overhaul

0:24:07.480 --> 0:24:09.720
<v Speaker 1>that's that's going to be in front of them, um.

0:24:09.760 --> 0:24:12.000
<v Speaker 1>And they do need to have senior leadership buying in

0:24:12.000 --> 0:24:14.879
<v Speaker 1>and really paying attention, never dropping the ball, and I

0:24:14.920 --> 0:24:16.720
<v Speaker 1>think that's what they were trying to do with this program,

0:24:16.720 --> 0:24:20.200
<v Speaker 1>and they've even said, you know, we're naming these three officers, um,

0:24:20.240 --> 0:24:21.920
<v Speaker 1>but we're going to have this apply to a lot

0:24:21.920 --> 0:24:24.520
<v Speaker 1>of our top executives. And that's what regulators actually wanted

0:24:24.520 --> 0:24:26.680
<v Speaker 1>from them. You know, if you actually read the consent orders,

0:24:26.720 --> 0:24:29.359
<v Speaker 1>they said, we want you to be making sure that

0:24:29.400 --> 0:24:31.840
<v Speaker 1>you've got, you know, compensation programs that are tied to

0:24:31.920 --> 0:24:35.200
<v Speaker 1>this effort. So I think, you know, well, we'll see

0:24:35.240 --> 0:24:37.239
<v Speaker 1>a lot we won't see a lot um. But the

0:24:37.240 --> 0:24:39.320
<v Speaker 1>bank has said they're very focused on this and it's

0:24:39.320 --> 0:24:41.680
<v Speaker 1>a years long process that that's not going to be

0:24:41.760 --> 0:24:43.720
<v Speaker 1>easy to solve. I'm not fast enough, but I'm trying

0:24:43.760 --> 0:24:45.960
<v Speaker 1>to look up Mark Mason, who's the chief financial officer

0:24:46.000 --> 0:24:48.399
<v Speaker 1>at the City Group, just quickly kind of what his

0:24:48.440 --> 0:24:52.720
<v Speaker 1>compensation is. And I mean he's already making uh five

0:24:52.720 --> 0:24:55.879
<v Speaker 1>point nine million dollars in cash six point one million

0:24:55.880 --> 0:24:59.080
<v Speaker 1>in non cash um. It's a pretty nice salary. And

0:24:59.080 --> 0:25:01.080
<v Speaker 1>I know people will say no to it. No, And

0:25:01.119 --> 0:25:02.920
<v Speaker 1>I know folks on Wall Street get paid a lot

0:25:02.920 --> 0:25:05.040
<v Speaker 1>of money. But some again going back to the argument

0:25:05.080 --> 0:25:08.040
<v Speaker 1>that that's your job to make sure the right systems

0:25:08.160 --> 0:25:10.240
<v Speaker 1>in place, Why do we need to layer something on

0:25:10.359 --> 0:25:13.639
<v Speaker 1>top to make sure that those systems, the right systems

0:25:13.640 --> 0:25:15.560
<v Speaker 1>are in place. And and forgive me, I don't mean

0:25:15.560 --> 0:25:17.119
<v Speaker 1>to single that Mark, I just that's the page I

0:25:17.160 --> 0:25:19.239
<v Speaker 1>pulled up on the Bloomberg. Yeah. Well, and you know,

0:25:19.280 --> 0:25:21.680
<v Speaker 1>Mike mayover, well, the other thing that he kept saying

0:25:21.840 --> 0:25:24.600
<v Speaker 1>was some of these executives were in charge of these

0:25:24.600 --> 0:25:27.400
<v Speaker 1>businesses when a lot of these you know, misdeeds were happening.

0:25:27.440 --> 0:25:29.560
<v Speaker 1>So the idea that they're going to get more money

0:25:29.560 --> 0:25:32.520
<v Speaker 1>to fix and clean up what maybe they were overseeing

0:25:32.520 --> 0:25:35.560
<v Speaker 1>when when there was the problem, that's a little hard

0:25:35.600 --> 0:25:37.760
<v Speaker 1>to square away. But I do think, you know, the

0:25:38.280 --> 0:25:41.120
<v Speaker 1>great resignation and this whole idea of lots of shifting

0:25:41.160 --> 0:25:43.560
<v Speaker 1>folks moving around to different banks. They've got to keep

0:25:43.560 --> 0:25:45.240
<v Speaker 1>the talent that they have. They need to have these

0:25:45.240 --> 0:25:47.919
<v Speaker 1>folks clear headed and and kind of really focused on

0:25:47.960 --> 0:25:50.040
<v Speaker 1>the task at hand. And money does that right, and

0:25:50.119 --> 0:25:53.000
<v Speaker 1>money definitely does that sort. So I mean, I think

0:25:53.040 --> 0:25:55.359
<v Speaker 1>you know the prospect that like your bank could just

0:25:55.400 --> 0:25:58.680
<v Speaker 1>continue to get hit with mean regulatory Mike Mayo is

0:25:58.680 --> 0:26:01.160
<v Speaker 1>in my right and he's like eating me these loves.

0:26:02.000 --> 0:26:03.880
<v Speaker 1>I love that. But I mean, I think I think

0:26:03.920 --> 0:26:06.040
<v Speaker 1>Mike's points are good ones. I think, um, we'll see

0:26:06.040 --> 0:26:07.840
<v Speaker 1>a lot from this bank over the next few months

0:26:07.840 --> 0:26:10.399
<v Speaker 1>as they kind of finish up the initial reports that

0:26:10.440 --> 0:26:13.400
<v Speaker 1>they owe to regulators. But it's definitely a big time

0:26:13.400 --> 0:26:15.400
<v Speaker 1>at City. They've they've got a lot of work that

0:26:15.400 --> 0:26:16.800
<v Speaker 1>has to be done. But Jenny, just in the last

0:26:16.840 --> 0:26:19.600
<v Speaker 1>thirty seconds that we have a few city reporting earnings,

0:26:19.720 --> 0:26:22.800
<v Speaker 1>uh eight am on Thursday. What do you keep an

0:26:22.840 --> 0:26:25.359
<v Speaker 1>eye on? I mean, I think loan growth, that's the

0:26:25.359 --> 0:26:27.080
<v Speaker 1>big thing we're looking at for all of these banks.

0:26:27.200 --> 0:26:29.119
<v Speaker 1>Is it coming back yet? Our people borrowing on their

0:26:29.160 --> 0:26:32.520
<v Speaker 1>credit cards, our corporations getting back to this? Um? I mean,

0:26:32.600 --> 0:26:34.159
<v Speaker 1>I don't know that we'll see that this quarter, but

0:26:34.200 --> 0:26:36.639
<v Speaker 1>I think everybody's going to be listening to these executives,

0:26:36.800 --> 0:26:38.720
<v Speaker 1>you know, will they see it this year? Is this

0:26:38.800 --> 0:26:41.080
<v Speaker 1>the next year? Thing? Um? When does that come back?

0:26:41.160 --> 0:26:42.960
<v Speaker 1>If it's low those numbers, those loan growth is just

0:26:43.040 --> 0:26:45.200
<v Speaker 1>say something about the economic outlook the market? Or is

0:26:45.240 --> 0:26:48.399
<v Speaker 1>it just say that banks are just being incredibly picky Still,

0:26:48.880 --> 0:26:50.720
<v Speaker 1>I think it's a lot more about the demand side.

0:26:50.760 --> 0:26:52.760
<v Speaker 1>I think, you know, folks are flush with cash after

0:26:52.800 --> 0:26:55.000
<v Speaker 1>all this government aid, and so I think it's a

0:26:55.040 --> 0:26:56.920
<v Speaker 1>lot more about demand at this point. At least that's

0:26:56.960 --> 0:26:59.840
<v Speaker 1>what the banks keeps saying to us. So good ll leather,

0:27:00.720 --> 0:27:03.320
<v Speaker 1>I'm just saying, I'm kind of loving the whole package. Um.

0:27:03.400 --> 0:27:05.800
<v Speaker 1>Jenny Serene, she's a must read here at Bloomberg and

0:27:05.880 --> 0:27:08.240
<v Speaker 1>this is, as we mentioned, one of our most read

0:27:08.280 --> 0:27:10.679
<v Speaker 1>stories on the Bloomberg Jenny is finance reporter here at

0:27:10.680 --> 0:27:18.040
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg News. I'm bro oh journal. Yeah, but you let

0:27:18.040 --> 0:27:22.880
<v Speaker 1>me drive? No, no, no, drive home, honey, please, I'll

0:27:22.920 --> 0:27:30.760
<v Speaker 1>do the right ravel. I want to drive, Just drive baby,

0:27:32.880 --> 0:27:42.600
<v Speaker 1>question te drying yea, this is the drive to the globe.

0:27:43.119 --> 0:27:47.000
<v Speaker 1>I'm commune. Thanks, We'll drying up dawn on Bloomberg Radio.

0:27:47.200 --> 0:27:49.159
<v Speaker 1>All right, so just about ten minutes left in today's

0:27:49.160 --> 0:27:51.880
<v Speaker 1>trading session. Charlie Pellett really summing up up. Well, we're

0:27:51.880 --> 0:27:55.000
<v Speaker 1>seeing some selling into the clothes, although again we are

0:27:55.040 --> 0:27:57.399
<v Speaker 1>bottoming out here, but we are near our loads of

0:27:57.440 --> 0:28:00.320
<v Speaker 1>the session here on the equity trade, let's get to

0:28:00.359 --> 0:28:02.840
<v Speaker 1>it with Alan Zaffron. He's founding partner and co c

0:28:03.000 --> 0:28:07.360
<v Speaker 1>I O co CEO excuse me, at I e Q Capital.

0:28:07.400 --> 0:28:10.920
<v Speaker 1>He's on the phone in Foster City, California. Allen, nice

0:28:10.960 --> 0:28:14.520
<v Speaker 1>to have you back here on Bloomberg Radio. So we're

0:28:14.520 --> 0:28:17.000
<v Speaker 1>watching this market trade. It's gonna be a big week

0:28:17.080 --> 0:28:20.119
<v Speaker 1>for earnings. Um, what's of interest to you when you

0:28:20.160 --> 0:28:22.440
<v Speaker 1>look at kind of the churning that's going on, because

0:28:22.480 --> 0:28:24.000
<v Speaker 1>it's almost an even split if I look at the

0:28:24.080 --> 0:28:26.480
<v Speaker 1>S and P five ONUND a little bit more selling

0:28:26.520 --> 0:28:29.160
<v Speaker 1>when you look at the names that are losing ground

0:28:29.160 --> 0:28:34.080
<v Speaker 1>today versus gaining ground. Carol and Chim, thanks for having

0:28:34.119 --> 0:28:36.680
<v Speaker 1>me on. I'm glad I'm the chief of many things apparently,

0:28:37.040 --> 0:28:41.040
<v Speaker 1>Sorry did I add some titles? I love it more.

0:28:41.160 --> 0:28:47.640
<v Speaker 1>Congratulations on your promotion exactly. Hr is knocking on the door, Ellen, uh,

0:28:47.680 --> 0:28:51.800
<v Speaker 1>I got There's two I think major trends impacting the market.

0:28:52.080 --> 0:28:54.440
<v Speaker 1>One is this question about his inflation going to be

0:28:54.480 --> 0:28:57.880
<v Speaker 1>transitory or here to today, and that that's an issue

0:28:57.920 --> 0:29:00.680
<v Speaker 1>we can talk about because if you have inflation, there's

0:29:00.680 --> 0:29:02.520
<v Speaker 1>a worry rates get too behind. This whole market was

0:29:02.600 --> 0:29:04.520
<v Speaker 1>built on rates. And then the second thing that's not

0:29:04.560 --> 0:29:08.720
<v Speaker 1>being talked about. I just think you have intramarket leadership changing,

0:29:08.720 --> 0:29:11.520
<v Speaker 1>and what really has happened, we just got through it,

0:29:11.600 --> 0:29:14.440
<v Speaker 1>I think is the early cycle of the economic recovery,

0:29:14.600 --> 0:29:16.880
<v Speaker 1>and we're transitioning into what we call the mid cycle.

0:29:16.960 --> 0:29:19.640
<v Speaker 1>So if you think about it, you know, we have

0:29:19.720 --> 0:29:23.680
<v Speaker 1>this horrible recession back in March of and all that

0:29:23.800 --> 0:29:26.200
<v Speaker 1>horrific Cuman loss and all the illnesses and everything, but

0:29:26.280 --> 0:29:29.600
<v Speaker 1>coming out of it. From a classic economic perspective, when

0:29:29.600 --> 0:29:32.360
<v Speaker 1>you have an early early cycle recovery, you get a

0:29:32.360 --> 0:29:36.280
<v Speaker 1>combination of earnings growth and valuations going up, so multiples

0:29:36.320 --> 0:29:39.800
<v Speaker 1>expanded and earnings expanded, and we're now kind of past

0:29:39.880 --> 0:29:42.160
<v Speaker 1>all that. So in the early stages, you're small caps

0:29:42.160 --> 0:29:45.840
<v Speaker 1>do well, value does well. Now you're you're transitioning into

0:29:45.880 --> 0:29:49.160
<v Speaker 1>this mid cycle. And the mid cycle means earnings growth

0:29:49.240 --> 0:29:53.400
<v Speaker 1>rates are peaking, valuations have peaked, so valuation is going

0:29:53.440 --> 0:29:56.520
<v Speaker 1>to start going down, but you're still having earnings growth

0:29:57.200 --> 0:30:00.560
<v Speaker 1>and probably growth enough to beat the compression and ultiples.

0:30:00.560 --> 0:30:04.800
<v Speaker 1>And so what's happening is there's this battle and typically

0:30:04.960 --> 0:30:07.280
<v Speaker 1>rotates from the small caps and guy stocks towards the

0:30:07.360 --> 0:30:10.640
<v Speaker 1>mid caps and Franklin large caps. And now starting with

0:30:10.760 --> 0:30:13.680
<v Speaker 1>for companies, they're going to grow regardless of economic sensitivity.

0:30:13.760 --> 0:30:17.160
<v Speaker 1>So you get you get towards tech and healthcare, you

0:30:17.200 --> 0:30:19.560
<v Speaker 1>get away from the small caps and get away from

0:30:19.560 --> 0:30:23.120
<v Speaker 1>the deep cyclical businesses. But it's it's a it's a churn,

0:30:23.640 --> 0:30:26.080
<v Speaker 1>and this is the ugly churning happening right in the

0:30:26.120 --> 0:30:29.280
<v Speaker 1>middle of September and October when the world's always russ

0:30:29.360 --> 0:30:31.120
<v Speaker 1>right in the middle of the big debt site and

0:30:31.520 --> 0:30:34.400
<v Speaker 1>tax heights. It's just kind of a combination of all

0:30:34.480 --> 0:30:36.640
<v Speaker 1>this at once. It's really hard to fathom out. But

0:30:36.640 --> 0:30:39.680
<v Speaker 1>if you take a step back, you either decide inflations

0:30:39.680 --> 0:30:41.840
<v Speaker 1>here to stay, or it's transitory and you decide we're

0:30:41.840 --> 0:30:44.240
<v Speaker 1>in the middle of this transition into a long standing bowl,

0:30:44.320 --> 0:30:46.320
<v Speaker 1>or yeah, this is the end of the market, the

0:30:46.320 --> 0:30:48.520
<v Speaker 1>bull market. I don't believe I'm in the first camp

0:30:48.560 --> 0:30:51.800
<v Speaker 1>work work transitioning into a mid cycle. We're gonna have

0:30:51.840 --> 0:30:56.120
<v Speaker 1>some ups and downs until it's clear that inflation is transitory,

0:30:56.120 --> 0:30:57.800
<v Speaker 1>and that might not be clear until the early part

0:30:57.800 --> 0:30:59.840
<v Speaker 1>of next year. What are the data that that's telling

0:30:59.840 --> 0:31:03.360
<v Speaker 1>you that, Alan, Well, what's telling me that is you

0:31:03.440 --> 0:31:06.240
<v Speaker 1>kind of look at the stuff that's gobbling up the

0:31:06.320 --> 0:31:10.120
<v Speaker 1>inflation data. A lot of it is these big bulky

0:31:09.520 --> 0:31:12.720
<v Speaker 1>as ask for things that get stuck in on the

0:31:12.800 --> 0:31:15.080
<v Speaker 1>on the ships, on the ports, so it's new cars

0:31:15.080 --> 0:31:17.400
<v Speaker 1>and used cars and rental cars in video, and auto

0:31:17.440 --> 0:31:21.080
<v Speaker 1>equipment and RVs and sporting equipment and furniture and housing

0:31:21.120 --> 0:31:23.720
<v Speaker 1>appliances and those kinds of things that are going to

0:31:23.800 --> 0:31:26.640
<v Speaker 1>work through the cycle. The question is, are you really

0:31:26.680 --> 0:31:31.040
<v Speaker 1>seeing um wage inflation that's permanently gonna sit there. I

0:31:31.080 --> 0:31:32.680
<v Speaker 1>don't think you're gonna see that at all. I think

0:31:32.680 --> 0:31:36.240
<v Speaker 1>you're going to see continued challenges even even trying to

0:31:36.320 --> 0:31:39.720
<v Speaker 1>hire people. I still think there's so much productivity growth

0:31:39.720 --> 0:31:41.600
<v Speaker 1>and there's so much use of technology. I think people

0:31:41.600 --> 0:31:43.800
<v Speaker 1>are still going to clamor for the good jobs and

0:31:43.840 --> 0:31:46.360
<v Speaker 1>we are going to be ultimately find people. And I

0:31:46.400 --> 0:31:49.200
<v Speaker 1>think where there's the rapid rage games and a lot

0:31:49.200 --> 0:31:51.520
<v Speaker 1>of it have been in the low weight, low page group,

0:31:51.920 --> 0:31:54.800
<v Speaker 1>the hospitality workers and leisure workers, where there's a real

0:31:54.800 --> 0:31:58.880
<v Speaker 1>shortage that's not really going to drive up economic inflation

0:31:58.920 --> 0:32:01.400
<v Speaker 1>to putting in problem for the market. So I think

0:32:02.080 --> 0:32:04.440
<v Speaker 1>it's gonna it's gonna diminish when we get into the

0:32:04.520 --> 0:32:07.840
<v Speaker 1>ladder happen next year. But the big question still out

0:32:07.840 --> 0:32:10.320
<v Speaker 1>there is if we get some kind of you know,

0:32:10.440 --> 0:32:13.280
<v Speaker 1>fourth wave, another variant. I hate to be such a pessimist.

0:32:13.320 --> 0:32:16.400
<v Speaker 1>It's not who I am, but uh, you know, the pandemic,

0:32:16.440 --> 0:32:18.440
<v Speaker 1>we thought there'd be a bounce back, We get vaccines

0:32:18.440 --> 0:32:20.280
<v Speaker 1>and we be all be back to normal. It's not

0:32:20.360 --> 0:32:22.880
<v Speaker 1>such a straight line. We see that if we continue

0:32:22.920 --> 0:32:25.720
<v Speaker 1>to have some problems, certainly when it comes to variants

0:32:25.800 --> 0:32:29.600
<v Speaker 1>or COVID that's gonna covid excuse me, that alan will

0:32:29.640 --> 0:32:33.000
<v Speaker 1>continue to impact those supply chains. Maybe workers can't go

0:32:33.040 --> 0:32:35.760
<v Speaker 1>back to help produce, you know, the necessary products that

0:32:35.800 --> 0:32:38.160
<v Speaker 1>are in demand, and that as a result, could keep

0:32:38.160 --> 0:32:41.840
<v Speaker 1>that transitory inflation, maybe still transitory, but transitory a little

0:32:41.840 --> 0:32:45.080
<v Speaker 1>bit longer. Yeah, I would agree with that. But let's

0:32:45.080 --> 0:32:48.560
<v Speaker 1>think about that from the stock market perspective. A market

0:32:48.640 --> 0:32:51.520
<v Speaker 1>that is marketed, a capitalisation wated meeting, the companies that

0:32:51.560 --> 0:32:54.560
<v Speaker 1>are largest move the markets most, and those all large

0:32:54.560 --> 0:32:58.640
<v Speaker 1>cap tech companies that largely grow even in a pandemic

0:32:58.720 --> 0:33:01.520
<v Speaker 1>driven world. So it's is that's going to be it's

0:33:01.520 --> 0:33:05.080
<v Speaker 1>going to continue to worsen all this socioeconomic divide. It's

0:33:05.120 --> 0:33:07.760
<v Speaker 1>probably not going to be that devastating for the stock markets.

0:33:07.760 --> 0:33:10.200
<v Speaker 1>The big camp large tech names that are growing aren't

0:33:10.200 --> 0:33:12.640
<v Speaker 1>going to get that devastated. And so I think you're

0:33:12.680 --> 0:33:16.400
<v Speaker 1>gonna see a continuation of it worst a sluggish market.

0:33:16.440 --> 0:33:19.360
<v Speaker 1>Sure you can get brief dropbacks, but there's too much

0:33:19.400 --> 0:33:22.360
<v Speaker 1>liquidity in the system, and I think it's inevitable that

0:33:22.880 --> 0:33:26.600
<v Speaker 1>the inflation eventually mitigates away and the risk gas prices

0:33:26.680 --> 0:33:29.360
<v Speaker 1>in a world of low yields work their way higher.

0:33:29.560 --> 0:33:31.760
<v Speaker 1>They just do. It's just gonna be sloppy between now

0:33:32.320 --> 0:33:34.880
<v Speaker 1>and when we have visibility, and that's probably three to

0:33:34.960 --> 0:33:37.000
<v Speaker 1>six months out, and I think many people would argue

0:33:37.000 --> 0:33:39.120
<v Speaker 1>it's a stock pickers market. So just before we let

0:33:39.120 --> 0:33:40.800
<v Speaker 1>you go in the last forty five seconds that we have,

0:33:40.880 --> 0:33:44.680
<v Speaker 1>give us some ideas well. Again, I'm gonna harp on

0:33:44.720 --> 0:33:47.440
<v Speaker 1>the fact we've moved away into this this mid cycle.

0:33:47.560 --> 0:33:50.120
<v Speaker 1>So I still think it's really early to look at

0:33:50.520 --> 0:33:51.959
<v Speaker 1>when you get to the inside that you look at

0:33:52.040 --> 0:33:54.920
<v Speaker 1>utilities and consumer staples, you're way too early for that.

0:33:55.520 --> 0:33:57.400
<v Speaker 1>On the flip side of that is the even money

0:33:57.440 --> 0:34:01.560
<v Speaker 1>has been made in the you know, low quality hotels

0:34:01.600 --> 0:34:04.920
<v Speaker 1>and restaurants and deep circlical businesses. So play in the middle.

0:34:05.280 --> 0:34:09.120
<v Speaker 1>Look for mid cap and large cap growth, steady franchise

0:34:09.280 --> 0:34:12.839
<v Speaker 1>names where there's real earnings growth. The evaluations can be.

0:34:13.080 --> 0:34:16.879
<v Speaker 1>It's really carp growth at a reasonable price. Right, stay

0:34:16.920 --> 0:34:18.800
<v Speaker 1>away from the high flyers and stay away from the

0:34:18.840 --> 0:34:22.080
<v Speaker 1>jump played in the middle of strong franchises. All right, Alan,

0:34:22.120 --> 0:34:24.560
<v Speaker 1>thank you so much. Great to have you back with us.

0:34:24.560 --> 0:34:27.560
<v Speaker 1>That's Alan Zaffron, a man of many titles, and I

0:34:27.600 --> 0:34:29.360
<v Speaker 1>was giving him a few more. He's founding partner in

0:34:29.400 --> 0:34:32.080
<v Speaker 1>co CEO at I e Q Capital on the phone

0:34:32.080 --> 0:34:34.759
<v Speaker 1>from Foster City, California. But I always love it's very

0:34:34.760 --> 0:34:36.560
<v Speaker 1>thought you know, very thoughtful in terms of the research.

0:34:36.560 --> 0:34:38.080
<v Speaker 1>He shows with us a ton of research, so I

0:34:38.120 --> 0:34:40.200
<v Speaker 1>always feel like we go into this knowing a lot

0:34:40.200 --> 0:34:42.560
<v Speaker 1>and learned so much more when he joins us. Thanks

0:34:42.560 --> 0:34:46.480
<v Speaker 1>for listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud,

0:34:46.560 --> 0:34:48.719
<v Speaker 1>or Bloomberg dot com, and you can also listen to

0:34:48.719 --> 0:34:51.319
<v Speaker 1>our radio show at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio

0:34:51.440 --> 0:34:57.120
<v Speaker 1>or watch us on YouTube search Bloomberg Global News