1 00:00:00,280 --> 00:00:04,800 Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast podcast. 2 00:00:04,920 --> 00:00:05,800 Speaker 2: All right, here we go. 3 00:00:11,320 --> 00:00:15,079 Speaker 3: Spreading the corn ten seconds or maining to just go 4 00:00:15,240 --> 00:00:16,240 Speaker 3: show up to the basket. 5 00:00:16,360 --> 00:00:17,760 Speaker 4: Under the basket, it's. 6 00:00:17,640 --> 00:00:22,720 Speaker 5: The truth for the wind God big a miracle, I'd 7 00:00:24,160 --> 00:00:26,480 Speaker 5: stop the water hit. 8 00:00:26,440 --> 00:00:27,960 Speaker 2: That one from the parking lot. 9 00:00:29,080 --> 00:00:31,800 Speaker 3: Welcome into our Sweet sixteen prop show on Mike Calbarys. 10 00:00:31,840 --> 00:00:34,879 Speaker 3: Joined today by Eric Binford. We've combed through these regional 11 00:00:34,920 --> 00:00:38,120 Speaker 3: semifinals and pulled six player props for you to get 12 00:00:38,120 --> 00:00:42,000 Speaker 3: a little action on the Sweet sixteen in addition to sides, 13 00:00:42,080 --> 00:00:44,440 Speaker 3: totals and money lines. And as a reminder, we know 14 00:00:44,440 --> 00:00:46,159 Speaker 3: these markets can be a little tricky define, so we're 15 00:00:46,159 --> 00:00:48,800 Speaker 3: gonna go ahead and drop these quick slip links into 16 00:00:48,800 --> 00:00:52,360 Speaker 3: the YouTube chat that will immediately populate your props into 17 00:00:52,400 --> 00:00:56,320 Speaker 3: your sports book of choice. But first March is still 18 00:00:56,320 --> 00:00:58,160 Speaker 3: the best month of the year, and not just for sports, 19 00:00:58,280 --> 00:01:02,360 Speaker 3: but also forgetting the best action deal on our Action Pro. 20 00:01:02,800 --> 00:01:04,759 Speaker 3: You can get Action Pro for just over five dollars 21 00:01:04,800 --> 00:01:06,920 Speaker 3: a month for the entire year, and for the NCAA 22 00:01:07,000 --> 00:01:09,679 Speaker 3: tournament you still get Sean Kerner and Nick Gibbons player 23 00:01:09,680 --> 00:01:12,640 Speaker 3: prop injections and if you care, thirty minutes before tip. 24 00:01:12,800 --> 00:01:14,959 Speaker 3: You can get my picks, you can get stucks picks. 25 00:01:15,200 --> 00:01:18,160 Speaker 3: And certainly with the movements, you know, half point here 26 00:01:18,240 --> 00:01:20,840 Speaker 3: or there, or the juice moving against you, that can 27 00:01:20,920 --> 00:01:23,480 Speaker 3: be the difference between staying and the black and bleeding 28 00:01:23,480 --> 00:01:25,600 Speaker 3: out here in March, So go to Action network dot 29 00:01:25,600 --> 00:01:29,880 Speaker 3: com backslash March now to get on board. All right, Eric, 30 00:01:29,959 --> 00:01:32,959 Speaker 3: let's start out in San Francisco, the number four seed, 31 00:01:32,959 --> 00:01:36,280 Speaker 3: the Maryland Terrapins taking on the mighty Florida Gators, who 32 00:01:36,480 --> 00:01:40,120 Speaker 3: escaped that showdown with the defending national champions in Yukon. 33 00:01:40,160 --> 00:01:43,880 Speaker 3: They had to erase a second half deficit. What's interesting 34 00:01:43,920 --> 00:01:46,679 Speaker 3: here in terms of travel, Maryland was in Seattle for 35 00:01:46,720 --> 00:01:48,800 Speaker 3: their first two games, so they actually stayed on the 36 00:01:48,840 --> 00:01:51,400 Speaker 3: West coast, where the Florida Gators played in Raleigh. They 37 00:01:51,400 --> 00:01:53,560 Speaker 3: have to travel across the country. Do you think that 38 00:01:53,560 --> 00:01:56,040 Speaker 3: plays a factor in terms of fatigue? And with this 39 00:01:56,400 --> 00:01:59,640 Speaker 3: game being the second highest total in the Sweet sixteen, 40 00:01:59,800 --> 00:02:02,680 Speaker 3: are you counting on lots of points to potentially juice 41 00:02:02,760 --> 00:02:03,480 Speaker 3: up and over for you? 42 00:02:04,520 --> 00:02:06,480 Speaker 4: I'm not counting on a lot of points in any 43 00:02:06,520 --> 00:02:09,120 Speaker 4: game in this tournament. With the rims that we've seen 44 00:02:09,200 --> 00:02:12,080 Speaker 4: with the basketballs being like, you know, bouncy balls that 45 00:02:12,120 --> 00:02:15,800 Speaker 4: you get out of the little machines. It's been a 46 00:02:15,840 --> 00:02:18,760 Speaker 4: tough tournament for shot making. But that kind of plays 47 00:02:18,760 --> 00:02:21,360 Speaker 4: into the pick that I'm gonna get to here in 48 00:02:21,400 --> 00:02:24,720 Speaker 4: a second. And I don't think that the edge that 49 00:02:24,760 --> 00:02:28,440 Speaker 4: Maryland has with a week off and the depth kind 50 00:02:28,480 --> 00:02:31,360 Speaker 4: of disparity between the two teams. Maryland basically, you know, 51 00:02:31,400 --> 00:02:33,440 Speaker 4: the Crab five. What a great nickname, but it's the 52 00:02:33,560 --> 00:02:36,400 Speaker 4: nickname for a reason. They really only have five five 53 00:02:36,400 --> 00:02:39,600 Speaker 4: players they like to play. Florida being extremely deep right, 54 00:02:39,680 --> 00:02:42,440 Speaker 4: especially in the front court, they're gonna throw waves at 55 00:02:42,480 --> 00:02:44,680 Speaker 4: at Maryland. So I'm not overly concerned with it, though 56 00:02:44,680 --> 00:02:47,200 Speaker 4: I am concerned with the bouncy balls that they're playing 57 00:02:47,200 --> 00:02:48,200 Speaker 4: with and shooting with. 58 00:02:49,680 --> 00:02:52,639 Speaker 3: So in terms of the prop that you're targeting, where 59 00:02:52,680 --> 00:02:53,880 Speaker 3: are you looking in this matchup? 60 00:02:54,639 --> 00:02:57,280 Speaker 2: Julian Reese notably Angels brother. 61 00:02:57,680 --> 00:02:59,800 Speaker 4: I feel like they said that about fourteen times on 62 00:02:59,840 --> 00:03:04,080 Speaker 4: the broadcast the other night to not Derek Queen, you know, 63 00:03:04,120 --> 00:03:06,320 Speaker 4: with the big game winner for Maryland. But he's been 64 00:03:06,360 --> 00:03:08,320 Speaker 4: a guy been targeting for the last few games. Just 65 00:03:08,520 --> 00:03:12,120 Speaker 4: in my opinion, based on our projections, my projections and 66 00:03:12,200 --> 00:03:14,280 Speaker 4: really the matchup and a must win game in the 67 00:03:14,280 --> 00:03:16,880 Speaker 4: Sweet sixteen. Julian Reese super under price here with twenty 68 00:03:16,919 --> 00:03:18,960 Speaker 4: one and a half points plus rebounds plus assists. 69 00:03:19,520 --> 00:03:21,200 Speaker 2: You can get that at certain books. 70 00:03:21,240 --> 00:03:24,360 Speaker 4: Bet three sixty five points plus rebounds looks good to 71 00:03:24,400 --> 00:03:26,840 Speaker 4: me too. He's not a big passer, but he is 72 00:03:26,880 --> 00:03:29,960 Speaker 4: a stat she's stuffer, similar to Angel, maybe a little 73 00:03:29,960 --> 00:03:32,119 Speaker 4: more efficient around the rim. Not a lot of volleyball, 74 00:03:32,320 --> 00:03:35,160 Speaker 4: but his rates are incredible. He's one of the best 75 00:03:35,160 --> 00:03:39,920 Speaker 4: rebounders in the entire country. Great offensive rebounder, elite defensive rebounder, 76 00:03:40,000 --> 00:03:41,800 Speaker 4: as great as Derek Queen is. Reese is a little 77 00:03:41,800 --> 00:03:43,520 Speaker 4: bit more of the man on the boards, especially on 78 00:03:43,560 --> 00:03:46,480 Speaker 4: the defensive end. For this Maryland team, they run a 79 00:03:46,520 --> 00:03:49,680 Speaker 4: double big lineup the Turps two. That's actually gonna be 80 00:03:49,720 --> 00:03:52,800 Speaker 4: a really good thing in this matchup. They're an underdog, 81 00:03:52,840 --> 00:03:54,480 Speaker 4: so you're probably gonna see a little bit more minutes 82 00:03:54,520 --> 00:03:57,760 Speaker 4: from that crab five Reese in particular, he's not gonna get, 83 00:03:57,760 --> 00:03:59,880 Speaker 4: you know, squeezed off the floor where Derek Queen's playing 84 00:03:59,880 --> 00:04:02,520 Speaker 4: the in a small ball lineup, Florida playing. 85 00:04:02,240 --> 00:04:03,760 Speaker 2: Double big lineup as well. 86 00:04:03,800 --> 00:04:06,640 Speaker 4: Right, you have some combination of the four Florida biggs 87 00:04:06,680 --> 00:04:09,520 Speaker 4: on the floor at all times is actually good here. 88 00:04:09,560 --> 00:04:11,880 Speaker 2: It'll keep Reese on the floor. But even with those 89 00:04:11,920 --> 00:04:12,760 Speaker 2: bigs with. 90 00:04:12,800 --> 00:04:16,120 Speaker 4: His offensive rebounding and defensive rebounding, Florida not a great 91 00:04:16,160 --> 00:04:19,880 Speaker 4: defensive rebounding team despite all of the size and athleticism 92 00:04:20,000 --> 00:04:22,520 Speaker 4: that they have one forty six in the country for 93 00:04:22,839 --> 00:04:25,080 Speaker 4: you know, number one seed SEC team. Not a great 94 00:04:25,120 --> 00:04:29,640 Speaker 4: defensive rebounding rate recent elite you know, efficient scorer around 95 00:04:29,720 --> 00:04:31,919 Speaker 4: the rim with the pace and everything. In this game, 96 00:04:32,040 --> 00:04:33,800 Speaker 4: I think he just cruises over here, just like he 97 00:04:33,800 --> 00:04:36,359 Speaker 4: did in round one. Despite them kind of taking away 98 00:04:36,680 --> 00:04:39,600 Speaker 4: the bigs in round one, Colorado State did still went 99 00:04:39,640 --> 00:04:41,240 Speaker 4: over this number. I think we see a big game 100 00:04:41,279 --> 00:04:41,880 Speaker 4: from Reese. 101 00:04:42,800 --> 00:04:45,360 Speaker 3: For my first pick here in the player prop episode, 102 00:04:45,480 --> 00:04:47,520 Speaker 3: I think it's fitting the SEC. It was a clown 103 00:04:47,560 --> 00:04:49,560 Speaker 3: car of teams making it to the field of sixty eight. 104 00:04:49,720 --> 00:04:51,560 Speaker 3: It was inevitable that we're going to start having some 105 00:04:51,600 --> 00:04:55,160 Speaker 3: rematches as the field got whittled down. Here we go 106 00:04:55,279 --> 00:04:56,359 Speaker 3: Tennessee Kentucky. 107 00:04:56,480 --> 00:04:56,960 Speaker 2: Round three. 108 00:04:57,000 --> 00:04:59,240 Speaker 3: I'm gonna go Zikaia Zigler over twenty one and a 109 00:04:59,279 --> 00:05:01,400 Speaker 3: half points plus assists in. 110 00:05:01,320 --> 00:05:02,080 Speaker 2: This stat combo. 111 00:05:02,160 --> 00:05:04,159 Speaker 3: He's gone over this number in five straight games, then 112 00:05:04,200 --> 00:05:07,640 Speaker 3: includes spouts with Florida, Auburn UCLA. So the competition has 113 00:05:07,680 --> 00:05:10,040 Speaker 3: been high and he continues to deliver. They need him 114 00:05:10,080 --> 00:05:12,320 Speaker 3: to shoot more and he's basically done that. His volume 115 00:05:12,360 --> 00:05:14,160 Speaker 3: has gone up. He was a sub ten shot per 116 00:05:14,160 --> 00:05:16,880 Speaker 3: game kind of player throughout the season. That's been ticking 117 00:05:16,920 --> 00:05:19,279 Speaker 3: up a little bit. But what's noticeable is he's driving 118 00:05:19,279 --> 00:05:21,080 Speaker 3: to the hole, he's drawing contact, and he's getting to 119 00:05:21,120 --> 00:05:23,760 Speaker 3: the line more often. From the SEC tournament on through 120 00:05:23,800 --> 00:05:26,360 Speaker 3: this past weekend, he's making six foul shots per game. 121 00:05:26,400 --> 00:05:28,480 Speaker 3: I think that's key for him to get into the 122 00:05:28,520 --> 00:05:30,520 Speaker 3: mid teens, which is what I need to go over 123 00:05:30,920 --> 00:05:33,200 Speaker 3: from a points perspective to go over this stat combo. 124 00:05:33,520 --> 00:05:35,920 Speaker 3: In his two meetings with Kentucky this season, he hovered 125 00:05:36,000 --> 00:05:38,520 Speaker 3: right around this number. But keep in mind Tennessee could 126 00:05:38,560 --> 00:05:40,240 Speaker 3: not throw it in the ocean from deep in those 127 00:05:40,240 --> 00:05:43,080 Speaker 3: two meetings, and he shot one for thirteen from three 128 00:05:43,120 --> 00:05:45,680 Speaker 3: point range. I expect him to return much closer to 129 00:05:45,720 --> 00:05:50,440 Speaker 3: his season average. And also in those matchups, though Tennessee lost, 130 00:05:50,839 --> 00:05:53,680 Speaker 3: they were a little bit effective in terms of slowing 131 00:05:53,680 --> 00:05:56,800 Speaker 3: the game down, not playing at Kentucky's pace. If Kentucky 132 00:05:56,880 --> 00:05:58,760 Speaker 3: is able to open this up and play closer to 133 00:05:58,800 --> 00:06:01,480 Speaker 3: the preferred tempo, you're just going to see more possessions, 134 00:06:01,520 --> 00:06:04,400 Speaker 3: more opportunities. And let's be honest, Kentucky's cooking right now. 135 00:06:04,440 --> 00:06:06,400 Speaker 3: Their games in March of average one hundred and sixty 136 00:06:06,400 --> 00:06:08,280 Speaker 3: three points per game. I think they're going to be 137 00:06:08,279 --> 00:06:10,600 Speaker 3: able to dictate that tempo. And that's why I think 138 00:06:10,600 --> 00:06:12,560 Speaker 3: he's going to land on this stat combo in the 139 00:06:12,600 --> 00:06:14,800 Speaker 3: mid twenties, So twenty one and a half up to 140 00:06:14,839 --> 00:06:17,480 Speaker 3: twenty two, I'd still play the over here on Ziegler. 141 00:06:17,760 --> 00:06:18,480 Speaker 2: All right, let's go to. 142 00:06:18,400 --> 00:06:21,800 Speaker 3: Your next pick, looking at Purdue drawing Houston, which can 143 00:06:21,839 --> 00:06:24,440 Speaker 3: be a difficult defensive matchup, but you were going with 144 00:06:24,520 --> 00:06:25,640 Speaker 3: a player prop on points. 145 00:06:25,680 --> 00:06:26,280 Speaker 2: Tell me about it. 146 00:06:27,000 --> 00:06:29,680 Speaker 4: Yeah, that difficult defensive matchup is really the key here 147 00:06:29,720 --> 00:06:32,279 Speaker 4: for Trey Kaffman Ren under eighteen and a half points. 148 00:06:32,600 --> 00:06:34,680 Speaker 4: If you've been betting any Trey Coffin Ren unders for 149 00:06:34,720 --> 00:06:37,760 Speaker 4: the last little while, it hasn't It hasn't been going well. 150 00:06:37,760 --> 00:06:40,360 Speaker 4: He actually got home against me. I bet the uender 151 00:06:40,400 --> 00:06:42,360 Speaker 4: against McNeice and he got home at the very end. 152 00:06:42,960 --> 00:06:43,799 Speaker 2: He's a great score. 153 00:06:44,080 --> 00:06:46,360 Speaker 4: He's up to seventh and Ken Palm Player of the 154 00:06:46,440 --> 00:06:49,560 Speaker 4: Year ratings. He's a great player, but he's really limited 155 00:06:49,600 --> 00:06:52,400 Speaker 4: to a particular way in which he scores. And this 156 00:06:52,440 --> 00:06:56,080 Speaker 4: Houston defense, which is elite in all regards right number 157 00:06:56,120 --> 00:06:59,120 Speaker 4: one defense in the country, defensive efficiency, not a team 158 00:06:59,160 --> 00:07:02,440 Speaker 4: you want to be taking over against, generally, and the 159 00:07:02,480 --> 00:07:05,280 Speaker 4: way in which they defend. They they what they call 160 00:07:05,400 --> 00:07:08,680 Speaker 4: monster They monster screens, they hard head screens. They're going 161 00:07:08,720 --> 00:07:10,360 Speaker 4: to get the ball out of Braiden Smith's hands, but 162 00:07:10,360 --> 00:07:12,240 Speaker 4: they're also going to collapse at the rim. They're going 163 00:07:12,320 --> 00:07:14,560 Speaker 4: to take away that you know, pocket pass that Braiden 164 00:07:14,560 --> 00:07:18,160 Speaker 4: Smith loves to. TKR gets him a lot of He's 165 00:07:18,200 --> 00:07:20,360 Speaker 4: the king of the floater, the king of the layup 166 00:07:20,480 --> 00:07:22,600 Speaker 4: getting set up by Braiden Smith. They're going to disrupt 167 00:07:22,720 --> 00:07:25,040 Speaker 4: that play, but they're also going to disrupt the post ups. 168 00:07:25,080 --> 00:07:27,880 Speaker 4: They double the post every single possession. TKR is not 169 00:07:28,040 --> 00:07:30,320 Speaker 4: going to get his you know, back down turn, shoot 170 00:07:30,360 --> 00:07:33,280 Speaker 4: over his left shoulder bunnies that he gets. I just 171 00:07:33,320 --> 00:07:35,440 Speaker 4: don't really see a way in which he's efficient scoring 172 00:07:35,440 --> 00:07:37,520 Speaker 4: and as great as he has been, we're hovering in 173 00:07:37,560 --> 00:07:39,760 Speaker 4: the twenty point range in about every single game, so 174 00:07:39,800 --> 00:07:42,400 Speaker 4: we're not getting a huge discount on that number that 175 00:07:42,440 --> 00:07:45,440 Speaker 4: he's averaging despite playing Houston in the worst possible matchup 176 00:07:45,440 --> 00:07:47,560 Speaker 4: against the best defensive team in the country. I've been 177 00:07:47,560 --> 00:07:50,240 Speaker 4: fading Purdue so far through the first two games, and 178 00:07:50,320 --> 00:07:52,120 Speaker 4: I've felt like a fool. But I think this is 179 00:07:52,160 --> 00:07:54,080 Speaker 4: finally the time, you know, the rubber meets the road here. 180 00:07:54,200 --> 00:07:56,160 Speaker 4: I don't really see a way in which produe is 181 00:07:56,160 --> 00:07:58,920 Speaker 4: effective and TKR is you know, being limited by their 182 00:07:58,920 --> 00:08:02,000 Speaker 4: bigs and their defensive skins is really the crux of it. 183 00:08:02,000 --> 00:08:03,880 Speaker 3: It's hard to face Houston right now number one and 184 00:08:03,880 --> 00:08:06,000 Speaker 3: a half court defense, both in terms of points allowed 185 00:08:06,040 --> 00:08:08,640 Speaker 3: per game end points per possession. So it is Yeoman's work. 186 00:08:08,640 --> 00:08:10,880 Speaker 3: If you can score and you know, to get to nineteen, 187 00:08:10,920 --> 00:08:13,480 Speaker 3: that'll be a pretty big game and potentially keep purdueing it. 188 00:08:13,600 --> 00:08:15,720 Speaker 3: So I like under in that spot as well. I'm 189 00:08:15,760 --> 00:08:19,160 Speaker 3: going to turn to fading quote unquote the Cinderella. Yes, 190 00:08:19,280 --> 00:08:22,560 Speaker 3: Arkansas's the ten seed in their region. They have a 191 00:08:22,600 --> 00:08:24,600 Speaker 3: Hall of Fame to be coach. He's getting paid eight 192 00:08:24,640 --> 00:08:27,520 Speaker 3: million dollars a year coaching at nine blue chip recruits. 193 00:08:27,680 --> 00:08:29,320 Speaker 3: That's where we are in the year of Our Lord 194 00:08:29,360 --> 00:08:31,560 Speaker 3: twenty twenty five when it comes to Cinderellas. But I'm 195 00:08:31,560 --> 00:08:33,520 Speaker 3: going to go with Christian Anderson from Texas Tech to 196 00:08:33,559 --> 00:08:36,720 Speaker 3: make three or more triples at plus one point fifty 197 00:08:36,800 --> 00:08:39,280 Speaker 3: five out in the market. Anderson has fired up six 198 00:08:39,360 --> 00:08:42,319 Speaker 3: or more triples in nine straight games. He's averaged seven 199 00:08:42,440 --> 00:08:45,040 Speaker 3: three point attempts in that stretch, and he shoots at 200 00:08:45,040 --> 00:08:47,720 Speaker 3: a thirty nine percent clip. So this guy absolutely can 201 00:08:47,720 --> 00:08:50,040 Speaker 3: be a knockdown shooter. And when you look at what 202 00:08:50,080 --> 00:08:52,800 Speaker 3: he's been able to do throughout Big Tech twelve play, 203 00:08:53,000 --> 00:08:56,319 Speaker 3: he's hit this threshold in thirty eight percent of his game. 204 00:08:56,400 --> 00:08:58,840 Speaker 3: So once conference play started for the Red Raiders, all 205 00:08:58,880 --> 00:09:01,240 Speaker 3: the way through this run here in the second weekend, 206 00:09:01,440 --> 00:09:03,880 Speaker 3: he's been somebody that's just flirting with about forty percent 207 00:09:04,000 --> 00:09:07,080 Speaker 3: hit rate. So plus one fifty on this I think 208 00:09:07,160 --> 00:09:10,199 Speaker 3: is generous in terms of what they're offering. Also, schematically, 209 00:09:10,320 --> 00:09:12,720 Speaker 3: Arkansas allows opponents to put up a ton of threes. 210 00:09:12,840 --> 00:09:15,040 Speaker 3: They're two hundred and thirty seventh and three point volume 211 00:09:15,040 --> 00:09:17,080 Speaker 3: allowed this season, and for that reason, I think the 212 00:09:17,120 --> 00:09:19,120 Speaker 3: Red Raiders are going to bomb away. It's going to 213 00:09:19,120 --> 00:09:21,440 Speaker 3: be a part of their offensive strategy to spread the floor, 214 00:09:21,640 --> 00:09:24,040 Speaker 3: allow top and to do work on the offensive glass 215 00:09:24,080 --> 00:09:26,360 Speaker 3: and not have to deal with a multitude of bodies 216 00:09:26,400 --> 00:09:28,720 Speaker 3: being thrown at him. So Christian Anderson, like I said, 217 00:09:28,760 --> 00:09:30,640 Speaker 3: he's probably going to get right to his average number, 218 00:09:30,679 --> 00:09:32,600 Speaker 3: throw up seven or eight three pointers in this game. 219 00:09:32,720 --> 00:09:34,839 Speaker 3: And if he just sticks to his season average, I 220 00:09:34,880 --> 00:09:37,000 Speaker 3: think this is a better than fifty to fifty proposition 221 00:09:37,120 --> 00:09:39,400 Speaker 3: that he's going to go over. So anything on plus money, 222 00:09:39,600 --> 00:09:42,160 Speaker 3: certainly at north of plus one fifty I really like. 223 00:09:42,320 --> 00:09:45,720 Speaker 3: And he takes for you from the Red Raiders and Razorbacks. Obviously, 224 00:09:45,760 --> 00:09:47,240 Speaker 3: you don't want to sleep on a Hall of Fame 225 00:09:47,280 --> 00:09:49,880 Speaker 3: to be coach like Calipari, but this has really been 226 00:09:49,880 --> 00:09:51,440 Speaker 3: the first march in a while that he's put it 227 00:09:51,480 --> 00:09:54,080 Speaker 3: all together and pulled the right strings. This is an 228 00:09:54,120 --> 00:09:56,720 Speaker 3: Arkansas team that about a month ago losing to you know, 229 00:09:56,760 --> 00:09:59,200 Speaker 3: some also rans in the SEC, we questioned if they 230 00:09:59,240 --> 00:10:01,640 Speaker 3: would even make the CAA tournament. What are your thoughts 231 00:10:01,720 --> 00:10:03,920 Speaker 3: on fading them, at least in the player problem market. 232 00:10:04,600 --> 00:10:07,040 Speaker 4: Yeah, this is the spot. I think it's the time 233 00:10:07,080 --> 00:10:11,040 Speaker 4: to fade Arkansas. They have searched for shore. They have 234 00:10:11,240 --> 00:10:14,520 Speaker 4: a lot more talent than a ten seed typically would. 235 00:10:14,559 --> 00:10:15,719 Speaker 2: But I also think they drew. 236 00:10:15,840 --> 00:10:18,200 Speaker 4: They had a pretty good draw in those first two rounds, 237 00:10:19,200 --> 00:10:22,480 Speaker 4: kind of some underperforming seeds that were higher than them 238 00:10:22,520 --> 00:10:25,080 Speaker 4: from maybe an overrated Big East. 239 00:10:25,520 --> 00:10:25,920 Speaker 2: You know that. 240 00:10:26,160 --> 00:10:29,360 Speaker 4: We'll discuss that in the offseason. But Saint John's just 241 00:10:29,440 --> 00:10:31,839 Speaker 4: I mean, couldn't throw it in the ocean in that game, 242 00:10:32,160 --> 00:10:35,600 Speaker 4: really really ref dominated game, a million fouls, everyone in 243 00:10:35,640 --> 00:10:38,679 Speaker 4: foul trouble. R J lewis not playing for the final lot. 244 00:10:38,760 --> 00:10:40,040 Speaker 4: I think it was just one of those kind of 245 00:10:40,080 --> 00:10:42,960 Speaker 4: fluky games. Texas Tech to me, is closer to a 246 00:10:42,960 --> 00:10:45,080 Speaker 4: top five team in the country than they are to 247 00:10:45,160 --> 00:10:47,840 Speaker 4: a three seed, and so I'm gonna I'm just gonna 248 00:10:47,880 --> 00:10:48,439 Speaker 4: side with the. 249 00:10:48,360 --> 00:10:49,520 Speaker 2: Tried and true Red Raiders. 250 00:10:49,520 --> 00:10:52,840 Speaker 4: I think they have a small in game coaching advantage 251 00:10:52,880 --> 00:11:06,360 Speaker 4: and an overall kind of talent scheme everything advantage. 252 00:11:04,960 --> 00:11:14,360 Speaker 5: Head course shots and Mad Scott suzz a Beta USA. 253 00:11:16,520 --> 00:11:24,880 Speaker 6: That's so much as bar Keep Geeving disappearing freshman with 254 00:11:24,920 --> 00:11:26,800 Speaker 6: a hot hand, shoots and scores. 255 00:11:27,600 --> 00:11:28,760 Speaker 1: That's what March. 256 00:11:33,000 --> 00:11:34,680 Speaker 3: March is still the best month of the year, not 257 00:11:34,760 --> 00:11:36,800 Speaker 3: just for sports, but also getting the best deal on 258 00:11:36,960 --> 00:11:39,000 Speaker 3: Action Pro. You can get Action Pro for just over 259 00:11:39,040 --> 00:11:41,559 Speaker 3: five dollars a month for the entire year, so that 260 00:11:41,679 --> 00:11:44,560 Speaker 3: lets you in on our NCAA tournament content. You'll still 261 00:11:44,559 --> 00:11:46,960 Speaker 3: get Sean Kerner and Nick Giffen's player props from the 262 00:11:46,960 --> 00:11:49,760 Speaker 3: Big Dance, and if you care thirty minutes beforehands, you 263 00:11:49,760 --> 00:11:51,480 Speaker 3: can get my picks. You can get stuck picks all 264 00:11:51,480 --> 00:11:54,440 Speaker 3: of our experts across all of our sports. And by 265 00:11:54,440 --> 00:11:56,440 Speaker 3: doing it for the entire year, you're also getting in 266 00:11:56,480 --> 00:11:59,079 Speaker 3: early on Major League Baseball and in the fall we 267 00:11:59,160 --> 00:12:02,200 Speaker 3: got college football NFL. You're covered end to end, So 268 00:12:02,280 --> 00:12:05,559 Speaker 3: go Action Network dot Com backslash March to get on board. 269 00:12:05,600 --> 00:12:07,560 Speaker 3: Now are we going to finish it up with one 270 00:12:07,679 --> 00:12:10,200 Speaker 3: pick each? You were turning to what should be the 271 00:12:10,280 --> 00:12:13,880 Speaker 3: highest scoring game in the Sweet sixteen and absolute offensive 272 00:12:13,920 --> 00:12:16,920 Speaker 3: showcase between BYU, who's been red hot eleven and one 273 00:12:16,960 --> 00:12:19,400 Speaker 3: straight up in their last twelve games against an Alabama 274 00:12:19,440 --> 00:12:21,400 Speaker 3: team that let's be honest, they played with their food 275 00:12:21,440 --> 00:12:23,559 Speaker 3: a little bit against Bobby Mo. They were tied with 276 00:12:23,559 --> 00:12:25,680 Speaker 3: about seven months to go in that game before pulling 277 00:12:25,720 --> 00:12:29,000 Speaker 3: away and then playing against Saint Mary's. The gals couldn't 278 00:12:29,000 --> 00:12:30,640 Speaker 3: throw it in the ocean. They made just three triples 279 00:12:30,640 --> 00:12:32,640 Speaker 3: in that game. So Alabama is able to win in 280 00:12:32,640 --> 00:12:34,800 Speaker 3: a rock fight. Do you think they go back to 281 00:12:34,960 --> 00:12:38,960 Speaker 3: the helter skelter, up tempo, push it, you know, accelerated 282 00:12:38,960 --> 00:12:41,920 Speaker 3: to the floor throttle kind of basketball against BYU. And 283 00:12:41,960 --> 00:12:44,000 Speaker 3: if so, what's your angle on how to play a 284 00:12:44,040 --> 00:12:44,800 Speaker 3: player prop here? 285 00:12:45,360 --> 00:12:45,640 Speaker 2: Yeah? 286 00:12:45,720 --> 00:12:48,320 Speaker 4: I think BYU is the perfect team for them to 287 00:12:48,360 --> 00:12:49,800 Speaker 4: be able to put that pedal to the floor, like 288 00:12:49,840 --> 00:12:51,920 Speaker 4: you said, because they're willing to run with them. 289 00:12:51,960 --> 00:12:52,400 Speaker 2: They want to. 290 00:12:52,480 --> 00:12:54,200 Speaker 4: You know, they play a very NBA style. They're one 291 00:12:54,240 --> 00:12:56,680 Speaker 4: of the best shooting teams in the entire country. That's 292 00:12:56,679 --> 00:12:59,560 Speaker 4: how they've you know, made their their run here starting 293 00:12:59,559 --> 00:13:02,120 Speaker 4: what six and six in the Big twelve all the 294 00:13:02,120 --> 00:13:04,600 Speaker 4: way the run here to the Sweet sixteen. It's you know, 295 00:13:04,720 --> 00:13:07,400 Speaker 4: a ton of great shooting, spacing, and a combination of 296 00:13:07,440 --> 00:13:09,960 Speaker 4: bigs that kind of do their exact dirty roll. Little 297 00:13:09,960 --> 00:13:11,800 Speaker 4: different roles for the two bigs, but it all kind 298 00:13:11,840 --> 00:13:14,040 Speaker 4: of fits together really well to play this you know, 299 00:13:14,120 --> 00:13:17,760 Speaker 4: space and pace type scheme for BYU. And nobody wants 300 00:13:17,800 --> 00:13:21,079 Speaker 4: to play that more than Alabama. So the problem I'm 301 00:13:21,080 --> 00:13:23,920 Speaker 4: going with is Mark Seiars eight plus assists at plus 302 00:13:24,000 --> 00:13:27,480 Speaker 4: five eighty. I'm in love with Sears in this spot, 303 00:13:27,480 --> 00:13:29,920 Speaker 4: but I think the facilitation part of it is going 304 00:13:30,000 --> 00:13:32,520 Speaker 4: to be huge for him. If you look at you 305 00:13:32,520 --> 00:13:34,760 Speaker 4: know clearly just the total, right, this total is almost 306 00:13:34,760 --> 00:13:37,800 Speaker 4: twenty points higher than any other total. That's kind of 307 00:13:37,800 --> 00:13:40,000 Speaker 4: baked into some of the prices, But the seers assists 308 00:13:40,040 --> 00:13:43,199 Speaker 4: are sitting at a pretty reasonable number because people think 309 00:13:43,200 --> 00:13:45,480 Speaker 4: of him a lot more as a score. We know 310 00:13:45,480 --> 00:13:47,520 Speaker 4: there's going to be fireworks, but he's the overall engine 311 00:13:47,559 --> 00:13:49,439 Speaker 4: of the offense. He's come on a little bit stronger 312 00:13:49,440 --> 00:13:51,720 Speaker 4: here down the stretch after kind of an up and 313 00:13:51,760 --> 00:13:53,800 Speaker 4: down season for what we expected to be a first 314 00:13:53,840 --> 00:13:56,720 Speaker 4: team All American player. He does still have a twenty 315 00:13:56,760 --> 00:13:59,120 Speaker 4: six percent assis straight on the country, sitting at one 316 00:13:59,200 --> 00:14:01,280 Speaker 4: hundred and seventy first, so there's nothing to scoff at 317 00:14:01,400 --> 00:14:04,040 Speaker 4: in terms of his facilitation, and he's gone over this 318 00:14:04,120 --> 00:14:07,120 Speaker 4: number five times since we've turned into twenty twenty five, 319 00:14:07,200 --> 00:14:09,600 Speaker 4: so kind of conference play and beyond. He did have 320 00:14:09,679 --> 00:14:12,360 Speaker 4: tenn asists in that Bobby Mow that Robert Morris win 321 00:14:13,080 --> 00:14:15,480 Speaker 4: where they were pushed right, Robert Morris did push them 322 00:14:15,520 --> 00:14:17,560 Speaker 4: to the brink. They did play at a very fast 323 00:14:17,600 --> 00:14:19,800 Speaker 4: paced This wasn't the Saint Mary's game, and he got 324 00:14:19,840 --> 00:14:22,120 Speaker 4: tenn asists in that spot. But the big key for 325 00:14:22,200 --> 00:14:25,240 Speaker 4: me is the way BYU plays defense. They're really really 326 00:14:25,320 --> 00:14:28,240 Speaker 4: focused on rim denial, right, so they don't want you 327 00:14:28,280 --> 00:14:30,520 Speaker 4: to get to the rim or score at the rim. Well, 328 00:14:30,560 --> 00:14:32,880 Speaker 4: Sears is gonna get downhill in this game. I don't 329 00:14:32,880 --> 00:14:35,040 Speaker 4: think there's a BYU player that can keep him in 330 00:14:35,080 --> 00:14:37,800 Speaker 4: front of them, So he's gonna get into the paint. 331 00:14:37,960 --> 00:14:40,040 Speaker 4: But they're gonna collapse and they're gonna, you know, get 332 00:14:40,040 --> 00:14:41,960 Speaker 4: the big guys, get the hands up, don't allow him 333 00:14:41,960 --> 00:14:45,040 Speaker 4: to score at the rim, which is Alabama's bread and butter. 334 00:14:45,160 --> 00:14:45,280 Speaker 2: Right. 335 00:14:45,320 --> 00:14:46,720 Speaker 4: They may put up a lot of bricks. They're not 336 00:14:46,760 --> 00:14:48,680 Speaker 4: the best three point shooting team, but Sears Is gonna 337 00:14:48,720 --> 00:14:52,080 Speaker 4: have kickout after kickout after kickout into these corner three 338 00:14:52,120 --> 00:14:55,080 Speaker 4: point shooters. You know, young blood Stevenson et cetera, just 339 00:14:55,160 --> 00:14:58,440 Speaker 4: knocking down threes to get to eight assists when he's 340 00:14:58,600 --> 00:15:01,120 Speaker 4: got a twenty six percent assist straight in the perfect spot. 341 00:15:01,360 --> 00:15:03,880 Speaker 4: He racked up tenn asists against both Texas A and 342 00:15:04,040 --> 00:15:06,680 Speaker 4: M and Mississippi State, who run a very very similar 343 00:15:06,880 --> 00:15:10,320 Speaker 4: rim denial scheme, as well as nine against Kentucky this 344 00:15:10,440 --> 00:15:13,040 Speaker 4: year so all of his best assists game have come 345 00:15:13,080 --> 00:15:16,960 Speaker 4: against this exact scheme defensively, and Byu might be worse 346 00:15:17,200 --> 00:15:19,520 Speaker 4: defensively at it than these other teams. So I love 347 00:15:20,040 --> 00:15:21,840 Speaker 4: really anything with Mark Sears assists. 348 00:15:22,440 --> 00:15:25,040 Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm basically in love with over across the board, 349 00:15:25,080 --> 00:15:28,280 Speaker 3: whether you're looking at total points in the game, player props. 350 00:15:28,320 --> 00:15:29,720 Speaker 3: I think it's a game that's going to be played 351 00:15:29,720 --> 00:15:31,760 Speaker 3: in the uper eighties, if not in the nineties. I 352 00:15:31,800 --> 00:15:33,880 Speaker 3: do like Byu to pull it out and add a 353 00:15:33,920 --> 00:15:36,560 Speaker 3: little bit of upset magic into this big dance that 354 00:15:36,600 --> 00:15:39,560 Speaker 3: has been so chalky thus far. There's another matchup that 355 00:15:39,600 --> 00:15:41,280 Speaker 3: I like here. I don't think the underdog has a 356 00:15:41,280 --> 00:15:43,920 Speaker 3: real chance of winning, and that's Arizona against Duke. But 357 00:15:44,000 --> 00:15:45,680 Speaker 3: I don't think the Wildcats are going to go down 358 00:15:45,680 --> 00:15:47,800 Speaker 3: without swinging here. And the way that they play is 359 00:15:47,800 --> 00:15:49,520 Speaker 3: they want to go up tempo, they want to score 360 00:15:49,520 --> 00:15:51,480 Speaker 3: in transition, and they want to bomb away from three. 361 00:15:51,720 --> 00:15:53,080 Speaker 3: So how am I playing this one? I'm going to 362 00:15:53,080 --> 00:15:56,640 Speaker 3: go Caleb Love over twenty five points at five to one, 363 00:15:57,120 --> 00:15:59,240 Speaker 3: and I just don't see a path forward for the 364 00:15:59,280 --> 00:16:02,080 Speaker 3: Wildcats even hang in this game if he isn't taking 365 00:16:02,120 --> 00:16:04,440 Speaker 3: a ton of threes. He's hit twenty five or more 366 00:16:04,480 --> 00:16:08,160 Speaker 3: points on six occasions since December thirtieth, and as I mentioned, 367 00:16:08,200 --> 00:16:10,240 Speaker 3: with the tempo being so fast, I think there's a 368 00:16:10,360 --> 00:16:12,600 Speaker 3: likelihood that he goes over his season average on three 369 00:16:12,640 --> 00:16:15,240 Speaker 3: point attempts, which is seven and a half per game, 370 00:16:15,320 --> 00:16:17,960 Speaker 3: at least just in the last ten games alone. So 371 00:16:18,080 --> 00:16:21,040 Speaker 3: he is a chucker. We've seen this in his NCAA 372 00:16:21,120 --> 00:16:24,040 Speaker 3: tournament runs before as well. In seven games in the 373 00:16:24,080 --> 00:16:27,200 Speaker 3: Big Dance, he's fired up at least seventeen shots. This 374 00:16:27,240 --> 00:16:29,960 Speaker 3: guy wants the spotlight on him, he wants the opportunity 375 00:16:30,000 --> 00:16:32,520 Speaker 3: to go nuclear, and if he gets some success early, 376 00:16:32,720 --> 00:16:35,200 Speaker 3: I think that's only going to increase the likelihood that 377 00:16:35,240 --> 00:16:37,200 Speaker 3: he gets to twenty shots. In the show that we 378 00:16:37,240 --> 00:16:39,520 Speaker 3: did last week, I gave up PJ Haggerty to go 379 00:16:39,640 --> 00:16:41,480 Speaker 3: to thirty points. I believe it was at six or 380 00:16:41,520 --> 00:16:43,960 Speaker 3: seven to one. He put up twenty three shots. The 381 00:16:44,000 --> 00:16:46,160 Speaker 3: best you can do in situations like this is get 382 00:16:46,200 --> 00:16:48,760 Speaker 3: the shooting volume, and I think we have We're in 383 00:16:48,760 --> 00:16:51,880 Speaker 3: line for another one here because what Duke does defensively 384 00:16:51,960 --> 00:16:54,360 Speaker 3: is when they fall back into their half court defense, 385 00:16:54,400 --> 00:16:57,000 Speaker 3: it's fortress, like you can't get into the lane. You 386 00:16:57,000 --> 00:16:59,240 Speaker 3: can't get easy buckets around the hoop, so what are 387 00:16:59,240 --> 00:17:01,360 Speaker 3: they going to do? Have to shoot from distance and 388 00:17:01,400 --> 00:17:03,200 Speaker 3: they have to speed it up in transition. In their 389 00:17:03,240 --> 00:17:06,080 Speaker 3: first meeting in which Duke absolutely put a straight jacket 390 00:17:06,080 --> 00:17:08,240 Speaker 3: on him, they only get six points in transition. I 391 00:17:08,280 --> 00:17:11,000 Speaker 3: think their response, by Tommy Lloyd and his staff is 392 00:17:11,000 --> 00:17:15,399 Speaker 3: to say, every opportunity push, push, push, outlet passes, secondary break, 393 00:17:15,520 --> 00:17:18,280 Speaker 3: Let's try to get some easy buckets in transition. And 394 00:17:18,320 --> 00:17:20,679 Speaker 3: I think love at over twenty five points in this 395 00:17:20,720 --> 00:17:22,080 Speaker 3: one is the way to go. At five to one, 396 00:17:22,160 --> 00:17:24,240 Speaker 3: What are your thoughts on that game? A Duke team 397 00:17:24,280 --> 00:17:26,639 Speaker 3: that also, by the way, if they're sped up. I 398 00:17:26,640 --> 00:17:28,919 Speaker 3: think what's lost in the wash a little bit is 399 00:17:29,000 --> 00:17:32,199 Speaker 3: this Duke team is historic. They're incredible on the defensive end. 400 00:17:32,320 --> 00:17:34,560 Speaker 3: They have the presumptive number one pick in the upcoming 401 00:17:34,640 --> 00:17:37,399 Speaker 3: NBA draft, but they're also number one in offensive efficiency. 402 00:17:37,600 --> 00:17:39,760 Speaker 3: So I don't think they're going to, you know, essentially 403 00:17:40,440 --> 00:17:42,199 Speaker 3: pull the ball back and try to make this a 404 00:17:42,240 --> 00:17:45,200 Speaker 3: half court slog, knowing that they can score. They've scored 405 00:17:45,280 --> 00:17:47,959 Speaker 3: ninety four and a half points per game in the past. 406 00:17:48,160 --> 00:17:50,760 Speaker 3: You know, let's call it six weeks when Cooper Flag 407 00:17:50,800 --> 00:17:54,720 Speaker 3: has been healthy, started and finished the game. So their fastball, 408 00:17:54,800 --> 00:17:57,240 Speaker 3: their top gear is just so good. I don't think 409 00:17:57,240 --> 00:17:59,119 Speaker 3: they're going to choose to slow things down. What's your 410 00:17:59,119 --> 00:18:00,560 Speaker 3: take on the Wildcats and Devils. 411 00:18:01,080 --> 00:18:04,560 Speaker 4: No, that's one As a North Carolina fan, I am 412 00:18:04,560 --> 00:18:07,000 Speaker 4: a Saint Louis University fan and a North Carolina fan. 413 00:18:07,160 --> 00:18:07,800 Speaker 2: It pains me. 414 00:18:07,880 --> 00:18:11,119 Speaker 4: To say, but this team is absolutely outstanding, and I 415 00:18:11,119 --> 00:18:13,080 Speaker 4: think they've they've kind of learned that. Like you said, 416 00:18:13,080 --> 00:18:15,879 Speaker 4: they're fastball as great as the defenses, and it's phenomenal. 417 00:18:16,040 --> 00:18:18,760 Speaker 4: The fastball is nobody can hang with us scoring the 418 00:18:18,800 --> 00:18:20,840 Speaker 4: basketball when we have Cooper Flag and we have everyone. 419 00:18:20,960 --> 00:18:23,280 Speaker 4: Actually think the loss of Malik Brown can can help 420 00:18:23,320 --> 00:18:25,520 Speaker 4: Caleb Love a little bit here. They don't have the 421 00:18:25,800 --> 00:18:28,000 Speaker 4: centers to really switch one through five. Caleb can get 422 00:18:28,000 --> 00:18:29,879 Speaker 4: into the pick and roll, you know. He loves to 423 00:18:29,880 --> 00:18:32,640 Speaker 4: come off that high screen against drought coverage and put 424 00:18:32,640 --> 00:18:33,239 Speaker 4: the threes up. 425 00:18:33,240 --> 00:18:35,359 Speaker 2: And they were falling the other nights. 426 00:18:35,440 --> 00:18:38,479 Speaker 4: In Round two against Oregon, he carried the team, had 427 00:18:38,480 --> 00:18:40,920 Speaker 4: a monster game. He's been known to be a duke 428 00:18:41,000 --> 00:18:43,320 Speaker 4: killer every every once in a while. I don't really 429 00:18:43,320 --> 00:18:46,480 Speaker 4: think Arizona can win and you know, maybe hang around. 430 00:18:46,480 --> 00:18:48,399 Speaker 4: If Caleb has a really great shooting game. I'm not 431 00:18:48,440 --> 00:18:50,600 Speaker 4: sure they can beat this this duke team, but if 432 00:18:50,600 --> 00:18:52,159 Speaker 4: they're going to have a chance, it's definitely going to 433 00:18:52,200 --> 00:18:54,840 Speaker 4: be with Caleb going off offensively, I think, so I'm 434 00:18:54,880 --> 00:18:57,720 Speaker 4: on board with that one for Eric Bin For I'm. 435 00:18:57,600 --> 00:19:00,439 Speaker 3: Mike Calbrey's this has been our first and so of 436 00:19:00,480 --> 00:19:04,119 Speaker 3: the player prop episode for the Sweet sixteen. Up next 437 00:19:04,200 --> 00:19:06,639 Speaker 3: is Nick and Sean Kerner at five point thirty, So 438 00:19:06,800 --> 00:19:09,240 Speaker 3: make sure to stay tuned to our YouTube channel so 439 00:19:09,280 --> 00:19:11,199 Speaker 3: you don't miss anything. And as a reminder, if you 440 00:19:11,200 --> 00:19:12,800 Speaker 3: want to go ahead and throw these picks in, we 441 00:19:12,840 --> 00:19:16,120 Speaker 3: have quick slip links in the YouTube chat. We're gonna 442 00:19:16,119 --> 00:19:18,520 Speaker 3: have the same for Sean and Doctor Nick's show as well. 443 00:19:18,640 --> 00:19:20,439 Speaker 3: Thanks so much for listening and best of luck in 444 00:19:20,480 --> 00:19:20,920 Speaker 3: this round. 445 00:19:21,760 --> 00:19:29,639 Speaker 5: Head of course, Shots and Mad Scott spuzz a Betaza doco. 446 00:19:30,720 --> 00:19:32,080 Speaker 6: B show. 447 00:19:33,320 --> 00:19:35,359 Speaker 5: That's Shargus bar. 448 00:19:37,760 --> 00:19:42,920 Speaker 6: Keep Jeeving disappearing freshman with a hot hand shoots and 449 00:19:43,000 --> 00:19:44,600 Speaker 6: scores bad s. 450 00:19:45,000 --> 00:19:51,679 Speaker 5: Marches say up you Prior, Oh no, no, Mad, got 451 00:19:51,680 --> 00:19:54,200 Speaker 5: a little madness in my let me have my moment. 452 00:19:54,040 --> 00:19:57,320 Speaker 6: Joke Marches. 453 00:20:06,720 --> 00:20:11,200 Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or 454 00:20:11,240 --> 00:20:14,040 Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is 455 00:20:14,040 --> 00:20:17,120 Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler 456 00:20:19,760 --> 00:20:19,960 Speaker 6: Su