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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: Welcome into the Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 3: It is Friday, July eighth, twenty twenty two, and we

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Speaker 3: are here with your.

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Speaker 2: UFC Fight Night betting preview.

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Speaker 3: We join you every Friday when there was an event

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Speaker 3: on Saturday, and this week we've got plenty to get to.

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Speaker 3: As we normally do on the podcast. We have the

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Speaker 3: main event, which we'll get to momentarily, our favorite underdog

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Speaker 3: plays fight of the night, favorite props, Billy Ward will

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Speaker 3: give us a DFS preview and we'll get our best

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Speaker 3: bets of course. Billy Ward, former MMA fighter, our MMA

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Speaker 3: analysts here at Action Network, and Sean Zarrillo, who does

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Speaker 3: a great job covering MMA for us at Action Network.

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Speaker 3: Brendan Glashee and your host. With the main event, Rafael

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Speaker 3: dosan Jos, the former lightweight champion taking on another Raphael.

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Speaker 3: It's the Battle of the Rafael's this weekend, Rafael Physive.

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Speaker 3: This was a fight that was scheduled in February, but

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Speaker 3: then it got booted off the main event and now

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Speaker 3: they finally are going to get together here in the

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Speaker 3: month of July. Billy, why didn't you get us started here?

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Speaker 3: And you've got a this is atypical. You know, you

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Speaker 3: don't really have much of an angle here on this fight,

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Speaker 3: but you might have something for us.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, you know, I had to get thematic for the

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Speaker 4: All Rafael main event.

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Speaker 5: We got the Rafil two shirt today for the All

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Speaker 5: raf main event. But yeah, this is a tough one.

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Speaker 4: I think if this fight were happening three or four

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Speaker 4: years ago, or even if RDA was a couple of

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Speaker 4: years younger, I would be all about his money line

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Speaker 4: and where it's at. It's just a really big step

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Speaker 4: up in competition for Physiev, you know.

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Speaker 5: And it's it's more or less.

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Speaker 4: A striker versus grappler matchup, with RDA being the grappler obviously.

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Speaker 4: And you know, Phiziaev has shown awesome takedown defense so

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Speaker 4: far in the UFC.

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Speaker 5: It's like over ninety percent.

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Speaker 4: I think it's been taking down once in five or

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Speaker 4: six fights, but he hasn't fought.

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Speaker 5: Anyone like RDA.

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Speaker 4: And the angle that I'm looking at here is, you know,

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Speaker 4: RDA has a ton of five round experience for those

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Speaker 4: will be the first one for Physiev. So if he

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Speaker 4: can kind of weather the storms striking for a round

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Speaker 4: or two, get a hold of him, bring him down

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Speaker 4: to the mat and ride out.

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Speaker 5: A few rounds.

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Speaker 4: And I don't think RDA is one of the guys

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Speaker 4: who's going to suffer from the scoring changes or the

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Speaker 4: way we've seen the scoring inforced, because he actually works

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Speaker 4: pretty aggressively when he's on the top. He's not just

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Speaker 4: controlling you, he's trying to beat you up. He's trying

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Speaker 4: to find submissions.

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Speaker 5: So initially I was going to just do a little bit.

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Speaker 4: Of a spring on already plus twenty, but looked around

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Speaker 4: and I think the best way to play it if

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Speaker 4: you want to be on the underdog side, is you

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Speaker 4: can parlay RDA in the over three and a half

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Speaker 4: at plus three hundred on DraftKings.

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Speaker 5: I don't really see him winning early.

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Speaker 4: I don't see him just storming through him, but if

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Speaker 4: he can take over late, you know, get a late

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Speaker 4: fourth round, fifth round stoppage or by decision. Plus three

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Speaker 4: hundred is a pretty good line on that for a

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Speaker 4: guy who's got some of the best wrestling in the division,

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Speaker 4: especially as a lightweight.

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Speaker 5: You know, he's fought up at Walter Waite as well.

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Speaker 4: So I'm gonna sprinkle a little bit on that at

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Speaker 4: plus three hundred, but not a heavy bet from me,

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Speaker 4: not something I'm super confident in.

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Speaker 2: All Right, it's gonna bug me. Is it physiv or

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Speaker 2: is it PHYSI.

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Speaker 5: Who you ask? Yeah?

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Speaker 2: Fair enough.

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Speaker 3: I just you know, that's just the host in me

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Speaker 3: that wants to get it right. But I like RDA,

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Speaker 3: that's a that's a nice way of putting it. When

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Speaker 3: you have Rafael against Raphael Sean Zila, what's your angle

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Speaker 3: for the fight of the night or for the main event.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, I think Billy pointed out the most important factor

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Speaker 6: is that half Alphazivee has never been in a five

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Speaker 6: round fight in MMA. He said, plenty of kickboxing matches,

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Speaker 6: we tie matches, vastly experienced in terms of the fight game,

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Speaker 6: but in terms of MMA, we've seen him consistently slow

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Speaker 6: down in third rounds, lose third rounds, consistently lost third

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Speaker 6: round to Bobby Green. That had been a five round fight,

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Speaker 6: I think Green might have taken over and won the

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Speaker 6: fourth and fifth rounds. So phenomenal striker, good takedown defense,

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Speaker 6: really quick hips. But Dosandos probably has the toughest strength

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Speaker 6: to schedule in UFC history, both at one fifty five

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Speaker 6: and one seventies fought. Everybody can be kamar Usman at

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Speaker 6: the Alvarez Colby Coving basically everybody except Connor McGregor, who

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Speaker 6: he was scheduled to fight. He is fought the best

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Speaker 6: of the best in their prime. Tony Ferguson, Donald CERRONI.

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Speaker 6: Everybody he is faced. May lose the first two rounds

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Speaker 6: here in the striking if he can't get the fight

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Speaker 6: to the ground, and you may get a better live

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Speaker 6: price after round two round three. So I would certainly

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Speaker 6: look to target Dosandros in the live market. I would

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Speaker 6: also take a look at his round four and round

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Speaker 6: five props because you can get some juicy numbers there

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Speaker 6: plus twenty one hundred plus twenty eight hundred depending on

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Speaker 6: round four round five. I like the fight ten inside

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Speaker 6: the distance at around even money plus one twenty out there.

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Speaker 6: I think it should be closer to even money, maybe

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Speaker 6: if a zevee puts them down early, or Dosandos takes

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Speaker 6: over late, submits them, puts them out with some ground

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Speaker 6: and pound if Phazive is completely gassed out.

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Speaker 5: So Dosandos on.

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Speaker 6: The money line around plus twenty five I think is

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Speaker 6: a fair price. I would make it closer to plus

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Speaker 6: one fifty, but as I mentioned, you may get a

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Speaker 6: better live price during the fight, so you could wait

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Speaker 6: potentially and get a better live spot. My favorite bet

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Speaker 6: is certainly the fight end inside the distance or even

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Speaker 6: the under four and a half rounds. I would just

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Speaker 6: play the fight end inside the distance though, because those

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Speaker 6: final two and a half minutes of the fight could

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Speaker 6: be particularly sweaty on the favorite side. So definitely underdog

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Speaker 6: and the unders here, but also the late props for

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Speaker 6: dosandos as well, I think are particularly juicy.

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Speaker 3: Speak of underdogs, we always get to our favorite underdog

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Speaker 3: plays and looking up and down this card, with the

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Speaker 3: exception of one fight, most of these are pretty close

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Speaker 3: in terms of the odds. Who are we looking for

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Speaker 3: Zarillo in the who are we looking at here? In

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Speaker 3: the underdog market?

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Speaker 6: So there's two underdogs that I really like this week.

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Speaker 6: The first is Nina Nunez going against Cynthia Calvio. Calvio

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Speaker 6: almost retired after her last fight. She took off the gloves,

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Speaker 6: thought about throwing him down.

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Speaker 5: That was a little weird.

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Speaker 6: I actually thought that she was considering retirement there. Nunas

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Speaker 6: came back after having a kid, a little look a

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Speaker 6: little shaky, a little stiff in her first fight back

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Speaker 6: against Mackenzie Durton historically has a very good takedown defense

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Speaker 6: around seventy six percent, and I do view her as

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Speaker 6: the better striker here. Calvio is the grappler. Nuna As,

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Speaker 6: I would say is the more well rounded fighter. So

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Speaker 6: if Nunas can keep this on the feet user takedown defense,

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Speaker 6: keep this on the feed for longer stretches, I think

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Speaker 6: she's going to look like a favorite as the striker.

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Speaker 6: So getting around plus one twenty five plus one thirty

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Speaker 6: on her on a line that I think should be

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Speaker 6: close through to a pick them, maybe even plus one

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Speaker 6: ten on her side, since she is slightly less grappling upside,

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Speaker 6: I think is a fair price. And then also Michael

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Speaker 6: Johnson around plus two hundred against Jamie mlarkey sco for skill,

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Speaker 6: I think this fight is the pick them as well.

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Speaker 6: Johnson is just inherently trustworthy untrustworthy. He tends to win

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Speaker 6: the first round of his fights and then completely fall

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Speaker 6: off of a cliff, not necessarily because of cardio, just

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Speaker 6: because of fight IQ decisions. He does very weird things.

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Speaker 5: In the cage.

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Speaker 6: He has also faced the superior competition as well, so

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Speaker 6: maybe just as skilled, more skilled, better strength to schedule.

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Speaker 6: Marlarky likes the wrestle, do not love wrestlers who are

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Speaker 6: non American wrestlers trying to be the better grappler in

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Speaker 6: their fights. Johnson is good to take down to hef historically

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Speaker 6: seventy percent for his career, good get up game. View

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Speaker 6: him as the spear striker. So getting plus two hundred

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Speaker 6: I actually thought was kind of a wild price on him.

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Speaker 6: It bakes in the fight IQ in the fact that

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Speaker 6: he is so untrustworthy, but he's the bigger here. Malarkey

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Speaker 6: was knockout in March, so Johnson's money line, his knockout prop,

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Speaker 6: fight to end inside the distance all where I'm looking.

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Speaker 6: But the Johnson money line at plus two hundred, I

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Speaker 6: think he's certainly worth poking.

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Speaker 2: Okay, Billy, were you hunting in the dog market?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm kind of unlike Sean here, I didn't really

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Speaker 4: love a lot of the underdogs. I thought a lot

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Speaker 4: of these closer fights were more about right than a

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Speaker 4: clear value on either side. But I am looking at

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Speaker 4: a Laman's a hobby against Ricky Tercios. Tertios has only

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Speaker 4: had one win in the UFC or one fight in

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Speaker 4: the UFC. It was a split decision win, not especially impressive.

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Speaker 4: I do think he's going to be better grapter in

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Speaker 4: this matchup. But Tertios was knocked out by Martinez shortly

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Speaker 4: before coming to the UFC. The Hobby Jones last fight

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Speaker 4: by knockout. I think it's kind of a striker for

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Speaker 4: aus S grappler matchup to a degree, but one guy

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Speaker 4: just has all the power and all stoppage up side.

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Speaker 4: And that guy's also about plus one sixty. So you know,

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Speaker 4: she pointed out last week, when you're betting these favorites,

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Speaker 4: you want him to have one of grappling or I

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Speaker 4: think that kind of splitting his eyes. But one of

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Speaker 4: them is plus one sixty, so I think he can

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Speaker 4: figure it out and land the shots he needs to.

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Speaker 4: I don't know if he puts them away or just

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Speaker 4: lands heavier shots and wins the decision, which is why

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Speaker 4: I'm not playing inside the distance.

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Speaker 5: But yeah, he oh. I wanted to mention he has.

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Speaker 4: Really take in the UFC, so I don't know if

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Speaker 4: Tercios is going to be able to get it to

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Speaker 4: the ground.

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Speaker 5: I think the Hobby wins the minutes when it's on.

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Speaker 2: The feet okay, very good.

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Speaker 3: We move on to the guys fight of the night.

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Speaker 3: We have Kyle Bario taking on Petro Arman. Petrosian, Oh geez,

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Speaker 3: that makes me cringe. It's like I practiced these and

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Speaker 3: then all of a sudden we get on the air

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Speaker 3: recording and it just doesn't go as planned. It's a

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Speaker 3: I'll put it like this though, to set up the fight.

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Speaker 3: It's a clash of two styles, very differing fighters.

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Speaker 2: Seanzilla, what's the angle?

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Speaker 6: Yeah, but Suersian the kickbox there, more of a grappler,

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Speaker 6: but he is pretty well rounded, and I think both

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Speaker 6: of these guys could push a pace. But Trojan is

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Speaker 6: actually three or four inches taller and Barrio has a

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Speaker 6: four inch reach advantage, so you don't typically see one

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Speaker 6: guy have that big of a height advantage and the

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Speaker 6: other guy have that big of a reach advantage. I

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Speaker 6: do view Barrio as the more well rounded fighter, as

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Speaker 6: I said, more athletic, very strong in the clinch, and

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Speaker 6: I think his control grappling is actually extremely solid. We

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Speaker 6: saw Petrojan get taken down fairly easily in both his

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Speaker 6: last fight against RoboCop his Contender Series fight. He is

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Speaker 6: easy to get down, but he pops back up pretty quickly,

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Speaker 6: So the fact of what will determine this fight is

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Speaker 6: how long Barrio is able to keep him on the ground.

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Speaker 6: If he tries to get back up, is brow going

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Speaker 6: to be able to take his back and submit him potentially.

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Speaker 6: My concern with RoboCop in that last fight is RoboCop

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Speaker 6: doesn't have much of a gas tank, so he doesn't

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Speaker 6: repeatedly shoot takedowns and try to keep him down because

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Speaker 6: he knows that's going to eventually tire him out. I

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Speaker 6: think Barrio is actually capable of grappling for all fifteen minutes,

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Speaker 6: so I actually do like the favorite out in this matchup,

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Speaker 6: projected it around minus two to fifty, but I'm also

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Speaker 6: looking at the fight to go to a decision or

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Speaker 6: Baro by decision as well. At plus money numbers, I

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Speaker 6: believe plus one forty and plus two to fifty respectively

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Speaker 6: on those, So prefer the favorite side of the money

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Speaker 6: line because I give him all of the grappling upside,

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Speaker 6: and I think the striking will be relatively competitive. But

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Speaker 6: this may just go fifteen minutes and be a close

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Speaker 6: decision like Portrojan's last matchup, where judges are basically weighing

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Speaker 6: damage against control. We've seen that tend to go towards

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Speaker 6: the striker and the more damage, which Portrosian should be

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Speaker 6: landing here, So maybe fight to go to a decision

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Speaker 6: around plus one forty, but also Bario at minus two

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Speaker 6: twenty five of the money line.

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Speaker 2: All right, So I got Barrio, but Petrosian.

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Speaker 3: See, it's like sometimes you finally spell stuff out, it

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Speaker 3: just doesn't go the right way.

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Speaker 2: How about you, Billy?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm gonna go a little bit in the different direction.

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Speaker 4: To Sean, I initially wasn't gonna bet this one, but

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Speaker 4: the line has moved on Portrosian just enough that I

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Speaker 4: think he's shown some value to me at plus one

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Speaker 4: ninety and I'm glad Sean pointed out how able he was,

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Speaker 4: how much he was able to get back up. I

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Speaker 4: think that's the key here. We've seen the judging as

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Speaker 4: of late. Just getting a takedown means almost nothing. It's

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Speaker 4: what you do with it when you're on the ground.

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Speaker 4: And Bahilo being this long, skinny guy that actually makes

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Speaker 4: it easier for his opponents to get out from under him.

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Speaker 4: There's more holes to escape through, there's more gaps with

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Speaker 4: longer limb people I think that actually helps Petrojan a

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Speaker 4: little bit here in his ability.

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Speaker 5: To get back to the feet.

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Speaker 4: They both have solid striking, but I definitely give the

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Speaker 4: advantage to Petrojan there a little bit. And you know,

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Speaker 4: watching Bhioway doesn't look like he's landing especially hard with

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Speaker 4: most of the stuff he's throwing.

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Speaker 5: Whatether it is or isn't, I can say.

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Speaker 4: Where Petrojian, he's just coming with a lot of speed,

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Speaker 4: a lot of violence on the striking.

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Speaker 5: So I think as long as he can get back.

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Speaker 4: To his feet in relatively quick fashion, he's gonna win

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Speaker 4: some rounds here. And it's one of those, with judging

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Speaker 4: being what it is, if I can get one guy

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Speaker 4: at plus one ninety and it goes to a decision,

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Speaker 4: I'm happy with that regardless of the outcome. You know,

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Speaker 4: like there's a lot of fights we see that could

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Speaker 4: go either way, but if you're on the plus money

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Speaker 4: side of those, more often than not, you're gonna come

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Speaker 4: out ahead in the long run. So plus one ninety

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Speaker 4: is enough for me. The plus one seventy or so

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Speaker 4: he opened that wasn't. But I'm going to sprinkle a

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Speaker 4: little bit Trojan as we.

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Speaker 3: Encourage you when we do these UFC Fight Night episodes

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Speaker 3: every Friday in the Action Network podcast shop, those lines

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Speaker 3: when we look in the prop market, what's our prop

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Speaker 3: this week?

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Speaker 6: Sean, Yeah, a fighter that Billy is going to talk

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Speaker 6: about that he legs on the money line, and.

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Speaker 5: I actually prefer his prop.

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Speaker 6: Odds Trey schan Gore to went inside the distance at

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Speaker 6: plus two twenty five, projected this line closer to plus

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Speaker 6: one twenty five, So I actually see a pretty substantial

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Speaker 6: edge at that number. Projected seventy percent of his wing

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Speaker 6: condition by finished, thirty percent by decision. That's how I

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Speaker 6: ended up at that plus one twenty five number relative

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Speaker 6: to the market, which is saying it's probably flipped and

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Speaker 6: maybe forty percent of his probability is inside the distance.

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Speaker 6: So he fought Brian battle for what was essentially the

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Speaker 6: tough finale. I don't think it actually was the tough finale,

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Speaker 6: but they ended up they were supposed to fight, and

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Speaker 6: then they ended up fighting later, and it seemed like

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Speaker 6: Gore was the better fighter. He just wasn't willing to

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Speaker 6: let his hands go. If he had let his hands

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Speaker 6: go more frequently, he was carrying substantially more power. He

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Speaker 6: was getting huge reactions out of battle every time he

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Speaker 6: let his hands go. He was just very conservative with

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Speaker 6: how he used them. A very limited mma experience. I

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Speaker 6: believe he's three and one or four and one, has

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Speaker 6: more amateur fights, doesn't actually have a knockout on his record,

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Speaker 6: has a few doctor stoppages, injury stoppages, So I don't

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Speaker 6: know if he was hurting those guys necessarily and causing

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Speaker 6: the fights to be stopped, or if there were just

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Speaker 6: accidents that were leading to the fight being stopped. But

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Speaker 6: it's very clear that treyschw Gore has a ton of power,

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Speaker 6: and I'm not particularly fond of Cody Brundges's their ability.

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Speaker 6: This guy seems very hittable, very easy to be hit,

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Speaker 6: and on top of that, he is the grappler here,

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Speaker 6: and if he can't get this fight to the ground,

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Speaker 6: he's probably gonna be in trouble. So providing Gore lets

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Speaker 6: his hands go, I think he's going to find a

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Speaker 6: finish here, likely by knockout. Fight ends inside the distance

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Speaker 6: at minus one thirty also of interest to me as well.

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Speaker 2: Okay, Billy, what do you have for us on the

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Speaker 2: prompt market?

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Speaker 5: Yeah? Real quick. Con Shohn's Plant.

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Speaker 4: I think I'm with you, but man, it's just really

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Speaker 4: hard to trust a guy that he's going to figure

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Speaker 4: out how to pull the trigger. Like, I don't know

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Speaker 4: if that's a mental thing or you know, what's going

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Speaker 4: to happen. It's just we're expecting a lot out of

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Speaker 4: him in terms of progression. But yeah, I'm looking at

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Speaker 4: the heavyweight fight between Vandera and Sherman and doing something

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Speaker 4: almost never do, which is betting this one to go

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Speaker 4: to decision at plus one sixty five. You know, Vandera

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Speaker 4: is a fairly modern or fairly heavy favorite here at

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Speaker 4: minus one to eighty, but he doesn't really stop anyone,

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Speaker 4: you know, he just throws a ton of strikes pitter pats.

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Speaker 4: I think Vandera is definitely the better grappler here, but

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Speaker 4: I don't think he'll be able to keep that up

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Speaker 4: late into the fight. So the way I'm saying it is,

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Speaker 4: if vander gets to take down early, this one's gonna

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Speaker 4: be real sweaty in terms of whether he's gonna put

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Speaker 4: away with Sherman. Both of these guys get stopped on

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Speaker 4: the ground like crazy. Neither of them have ever really

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Speaker 4: been knocked out on the feet at least in recent memory.

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Speaker 4: And I just think this one, if it gets out

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Speaker 4: of the first round, turns into a fairly boring, sloppy

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Speaker 4: heavyweight fight with both guys touching but not really trying

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Speaker 4: to take each other's heads off. So plus one sixty

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Speaker 4: five that's fairly good odds on that. You know, it's

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Speaker 4: a super low level heavyweight fight. Neither of these guys

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Speaker 4: are contenders. It's either going to stop pretty much right

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Speaker 4: away so you can have it with the round one prop,

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Speaker 4: or we're going to a decision because neither of these

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Speaker 4: guys are going to have the gas tanks later on

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Speaker 4: in the fight.

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Speaker 3: Moving on to the DFS landscape, and we like to

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Speaker 3: hit on this because we understand that some of you

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Speaker 3: that want to get involved with MMA, whether it be

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Speaker 3: UFC or whatever the event may.

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Speaker 2: Be, you can't get involved on the betting side.

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Speaker 3: So we get Billy to give us a DFS betting preview.

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Speaker 3: We have twelve fights on the card. Everyone's priced accordingly,

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Speaker 3: four fighters in the nine K range and then you

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Speaker 3: work your way down. You got your fighters in the

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Speaker 3: eight K, seven K range. Only one fighter in Armfield

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Speaker 3: who is.

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Speaker 2: In the six K range.

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Speaker 3: What's the approach Billy, any similarities or differences we look

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Speaker 3: at GPPs or cash.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, you know, this one's interesting.

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Speaker 4: There's only four fights that are favored and inside the distance,

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Speaker 4: and you know a lot of the ones that are

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Speaker 4: underdogs is pretty close, so we'll probably see more than

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Speaker 4: four stoppages overall. But I'm expecting, you know, from a

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Speaker 4: GPP standpoint, just a lower scoring slate than we normally see,

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Speaker 4: which gives me some interest in stacking with Raphael's in

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Speaker 4: the main event, because when there's only twelve fights, it's

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Speaker 4: harder to get unique.

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Speaker 5: So having that stack helps a little bit there.

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Speaker 4: People don't want to play opponents against each other, but

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Speaker 4: that's hard if there's you know, seven stoppages down the card.

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Speaker 4: For both those guys put optimal scores, but if we

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Speaker 4: only see three or four that I'm inside the distance,

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Speaker 4: I like both of those guys. You know, Phizziev has

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Speaker 4: very good striking output. RDA is going to push the

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Speaker 4: pace and get up a lot of takedowns, So that's

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Speaker 4: the main thing I'm looking for. You're almost definitely going

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Speaker 4: to play that in cash. There's just not a ton

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Speaker 4: to love outside of that. But I think it's sneaky

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Speaker 4: into GPPs, and then you know the higher end fighters

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Speaker 4: in terms of the salary that you mentioned, I don't

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Speaker 4: really love any of those guys. We're not seeing those

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Speaker 4: big stoppa jobs. Those are definitely going to in inside

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Speaker 4: the distance. So I think this is a really good

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Speaker 4: slate to target some of those middle range fighters. We've

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Speaker 4: got Lawrence Kkramonov the opener, which I think is going

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Speaker 4: to produce a ton of points. Not entirely sure for who,

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Speaker 4: but it's a fairly close fight, so you can mix

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Speaker 4: in those guys. Same thing with Roberson versus those check

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Speaker 4: woub I'm on the Kennedy side, but that one's.

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Speaker 5: Pretty likely to knock out. Both guys swing really big, both.

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Speaker 4: Guys have probably somewhat questionable gas tanks. So I think

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Speaker 4: just sticking to that middle range for GPPs is going

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Speaker 4: to be the optimal play. Whereas cash games you want

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Speaker 4: to go and go high and low. I think Courtney

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Speaker 4: Casey is a really good cash game play. She throws

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Speaker 4: a ridiculous amount of strikes, like almost twice the UFC

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Speaker 4: average per round. She's an underdog, so she's cheap, but

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Speaker 4: that fight's one forty at end inside the distance, one

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Speaker 4: of the longer odds on the slate, So she's one

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Speaker 4: that I'd mixed in for cash, but not GPPs. So

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Speaker 4: I'm going to kind of have a barbell approach with

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Speaker 4: you know, heavy favorites and cheap fighters for cash whereas

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Speaker 4: some GPPs, and we'll be trying to live more in

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Speaker 4: that middle range.

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Speaker 3: Just love your use of gas tanks on this episode,

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Speaker 3: by the way, just the fuel in the gas tank.

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Speaker 2: That's been your go to phrase, it feels like.

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Speaker 3: Throughout the course of this episode, Zorillo carried a weigh

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Speaker 3: in on Billy's outlook from a DFS standpoint.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, as Billy mentioned, there's a lot of fights that

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Speaker 6: are favored to go the distance this week. I actually

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Speaker 6: probably want one of Jamie Mlarkey or Michael Johnson in

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Speaker 6: almost all my lineups, So I think either Malarkey has

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Speaker 6: a ton of grappling upside or puts Johnson down, or

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Speaker 6: Johnson puts him down. So probably almost one of lark

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Speaker 6: here Johnson in all of my lineups. Beyond that, I

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Speaker 6: actually don't really see a ton that I like to

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Speaker 6: finish inside the distance. David o'ama and Armfield, who is

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Speaker 6: that late replacement fight. Onama is about minus eight hundred.

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Speaker 6: I would expect him to be extremely highly owned considering

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Speaker 6: where he was priced relative to what was his previous matchups.

434
00:18:20,600 --> 00:18:23,399
Speaker 6: So Onama might be in every single lineup this week

435
00:18:24,000 --> 00:18:27,479
Speaker 6: he's likely to finish. Maybe the contrarian play is to

436
00:18:27,520 --> 00:18:28,440
Speaker 6: not include Onama.

437
00:18:28,960 --> 00:18:32,080
Speaker 3: Okay, before we wrap, as we do every UFC betting

438
00:18:32,119 --> 00:18:35,760
Speaker 3: preview on the Action Network podcast, let's go to best Bets, Billy,

439
00:18:36,040 --> 00:18:37,000
Speaker 3: why don't you get to start it?

440
00:18:37,400 --> 00:18:39,399
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm gonna do another two phdre just because it

441
00:18:39,440 --> 00:18:41,159
Speaker 4: worked out for me last week. But the first one

442
00:18:41,200 --> 00:18:44,240
Speaker 4: I'm gonna mention is Treyshon Gore. Pretty much Seawan covered

443
00:18:44,280 --> 00:18:46,840
Speaker 4: most of the main points there. I just think Cody

444
00:18:46,880 --> 00:18:49,439
Speaker 4: Brundage is not really a UFC level fighter, and his

445
00:18:49,520 --> 00:18:52,359
Speaker 4: record's been He's been fairly fortunate to put up the

446
00:18:52,400 --> 00:18:54,520
Speaker 4: record inside the octagun that he has, I'll put it

447
00:18:54,520 --> 00:18:57,080
Speaker 4: that way, like dal Sho Lundjimbula was just given him

448
00:18:57,119 --> 00:18:59,760
Speaker 4: the work until he took a stupid shot and got guillotined.

449
00:19:00,160 --> 00:19:03,399
Speaker 4: Max and then Maxim off beat Brundage pretty easily. So

450
00:19:03,960 --> 00:19:06,359
Speaker 4: at minus one thirty five, I'm pretty confident in Gore.

451
00:19:06,560 --> 00:19:08,520
Speaker 4: Like Sean said, you know, if he lets his hands go,

452
00:19:08,600 --> 00:19:10,879
Speaker 4: it could be a stoppage. I'm not willing to project

453
00:19:10,880 --> 00:19:12,760
Speaker 4: that he makes that step forward and really lets him fly,

454
00:19:13,280 --> 00:19:15,000
Speaker 4: but I just see the angle there too. And then

455
00:19:15,040 --> 00:19:16,760
Speaker 4: the other one I'm looking at is Kennedy and knows

456
00:19:16,840 --> 00:19:20,720
Speaker 4: check Wu versus Carl Roberson, and that's a light heavyweight matchup.

457
00:19:20,800 --> 00:19:22,960
Speaker 5: Kennedy is huge for the division.

458
00:19:23,280 --> 00:19:26,760
Speaker 4: I think he's six' three or six' five with almost

459
00:19:26,760 --> 00:19:29,600
Speaker 4: an eight foot or almost seven. Foot reach he's got

460
00:19:29,680 --> 00:19:33,400
Speaker 4: nine inches In, reaching roberson who's basically. A striker roberson

461
00:19:33,520 --> 00:19:36,520
Speaker 4: was just knocked Out By. Khalil roundtree This chak wu

462
00:19:36,520 --> 00:19:38,399
Speaker 4: hasn't really lived up to the expectations a lot of

463
00:19:38,400 --> 00:19:38,840
Speaker 4: people had.

464
00:19:38,880 --> 00:19:40,400
Speaker 5: For HIM but i think he's actually.

465
00:19:40,080 --> 00:19:42,200
Speaker 4: In a lot of ways kind of similar To, round

466
00:19:42,240 --> 00:19:44,879
Speaker 4: tree but just bigger and he's a really, good athlete bigger.

467
00:19:44,880 --> 00:19:47,080
Speaker 4: AND stronger i think he finds his. Chin here that's

468
00:19:47,080 --> 00:19:49,200
Speaker 4: another ONE where i could see him out. Pointing him

469
00:19:49,560 --> 00:19:51,479
Speaker 4: but there's definitely an angle to play him by knockout

470
00:19:51,520 --> 00:19:54,600
Speaker 4: or inside. The distance if you want a little bit. Better, Odds, okay.

471
00:19:54,320 --> 00:19:54,959
Speaker 5: Sean what do you got?

472
00:19:55,040 --> 00:19:55,560
Speaker 2: Best bet?

473
00:19:55,800 --> 00:19:58,560
Speaker 6: Go with The Heat ronnie lawrence at about minus one

474
00:19:58,640 --> 00:20:03,159
Speaker 6: twenty five minus one thirty Against. SIDE dakobekkermanov i Really Like,

475
00:20:03,240 --> 00:20:05,720
Speaker 6: ronnie lawrence that like his. Fighting style he reminds me

476
00:20:05,800 --> 00:20:08,639
Speaker 6: a little bit Of A rob devashpheeley because he just

477
00:20:08,680 --> 00:20:12,280
Speaker 6: shoots takedowns at, crazy volume attempts about twelve for, fifteen

478
00:20:12,320 --> 00:20:16,200
Speaker 6: minutes lands nine, of them just takedown after takedown, after

479
00:20:16,240 --> 00:20:18,720
Speaker 6: takedown which means he doesn't have the. Top control but

480
00:20:18,760 --> 00:20:22,440
Speaker 6: his striking actually looked pretty improved in his last Fight Against,

481
00:20:22,440 --> 00:20:25,160
Speaker 6: monta MARTINEZ so i think he's kind of rounding out

482
00:20:25,200 --> 00:20:28,160
Speaker 6: his game a. Little bit We saw cockermanov struggle with the,

483
00:20:28,200 --> 00:20:31,879
Speaker 6: defensive grappling good, offensive grappling but his defensive grappling IN

484
00:20:31,960 --> 00:20:34,879
Speaker 6: his ufc Debut Against trevin jones got held up against

485
00:20:34,880 --> 00:20:37,840
Speaker 6: the cage for a, little bit was. Taken Down so

486
00:20:37,960 --> 00:20:41,240
Speaker 6: lauren should be the fairly clear minute winner here just

487
00:20:41,280 --> 00:20:43,400
Speaker 6: because of the pace that he. FIGHTS at, I think

488
00:20:43,440 --> 00:20:45,920
Speaker 6: Sayi da koobe needs a finish in order win the,

489
00:20:45,960 --> 00:20:49,280
Speaker 6: S fight so massive grappling Upside For, ronnie lawrence maybe

490
00:20:49,280 --> 00:20:52,240
Speaker 6: more finishing Upside. For COCKERMANOV but i think that Pace

491
00:20:52,320 --> 00:20:55,800
Speaker 6: that lawrence puts on people eventually gasses them out down

492
00:20:55,800 --> 00:20:56,360
Speaker 6: the stretch.

493
00:20:56,400 --> 00:20:59,440
Speaker 2: As well, so Maybe like lawrence.

494
00:20:59,040 --> 00:21:01,639
Speaker 6: Got clipped in round three last Time Against, mounta martinez

495
00:21:01,760 --> 00:21:03,560
Speaker 6: he gets, put out maybe gets the gullotina on a.

496
00:21:03,600 --> 00:21:06,280
Speaker 6: Takedown attempt but buying, OUR urge i should see him

497
00:21:06,280 --> 00:21:07,159
Speaker 6: winning every minute of.

498
00:21:07,160 --> 00:21:12,919
Speaker 3: THIS Fight Ufc Fight knight Dosanjos against physiev is. Tomorrow

499
00:21:13,000 --> 00:21:15,159
Speaker 3: night you can catch all of it ON The Espn

500
00:21:15,280 --> 00:21:19,200
Speaker 3: FAMILY Networks. Espn plus main event IS. On espn forward

501
00:21:19,200 --> 00:21:21,280
Speaker 3: to a good stuff from. The Guys, Sean Zerrello Action

502
00:21:21,320 --> 00:21:24,679
Speaker 3: network senior writer and NOW we're Mma Analyst action Network

503
00:21:24,680 --> 00:21:27,159
Speaker 3: Writer billy ward that is going to do it for

504
00:21:27,200 --> 00:21:30,520
Speaker 3: another episode Of The Action network PODCAST Or Ufc. Betting

505
00:21:30,560 --> 00:21:33,399
Speaker 3: preview we join You every friday when there is an Event.

506
00:21:33,560 --> 00:21:37,120
Speaker 3: On saturday looking forward to it again. Next week fellas

507
00:21:37,359 --> 00:21:39,960
Speaker 3: for both of, Those guys Brendan, las sheen be sure, to, rate.

508
00:21:40,119 --> 00:21:42,679
Speaker 2: Review subscribe we greatly. Appreciate it we'll join you.

509
00:21:42,720 --> 00:21:45,520
Speaker 3: Next week good luck, this weekend and thanks for tuning

510
00:21:45,520 --> 00:22:02,560
Speaker 3: Into The Action network podcast