1 00:00:04,240 --> 00:00:08,800 Speaker 1: On this episode of Newsworld. On Thursday, January nineteenth, the 2 00:00:08,920 --> 00:00:11,960 Speaker 1: US Treasury Department announced the United States has reached its 3 00:00:12,000 --> 00:00:14,760 Speaker 1: debt limit and they would begin a series of accounting 4 00:00:14,800 --> 00:00:18,040 Speaker 1: measures to keep the United States from breaching its borrowing cap. 5 00:00:18,760 --> 00:00:22,479 Speaker 1: Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen sent a letter of Congressional leadership 6 00:00:22,520 --> 00:00:26,159 Speaker 1: about the dead limits, saying quote, Dear mister Speaker, I 7 00:00:26,280 --> 00:00:29,680 Speaker 1: write to keep you apprized of actions the Treasury Department 8 00:00:29,760 --> 00:00:32,400 Speaker 1: is taking in regard to the deadloment. In my letter 9 00:00:32,440 --> 00:00:35,640 Speaker 1: of January thirteenth, twenty twenty three, I noted that Public 10 00:00:35,720 --> 00:00:39,840 Speaker 1: Law one seventeen seventy three increased the statutory debt limit 11 00:00:40,080 --> 00:00:42,800 Speaker 1: to a level of thirty one point three eight one 12 00:00:42,920 --> 00:00:47,080 Speaker 1: trillion dollars, and inform you the beginning on January nineteenth, 13 00:00:47,400 --> 00:00:50,279 Speaker 1: the outstanding debt of the United States was projected to 14 00:00:50,320 --> 00:00:53,640 Speaker 1: reach the statutory limit. This letter serves to notify you, 15 00:00:54,080 --> 00:00:57,800 Speaker 1: pursuant to five USC. Eighty three forty eight one two 16 00:00:58,320 --> 00:01:03,320 Speaker 1: of the extraordinary measures Treasury began using today. She concludes 17 00:01:03,400 --> 00:01:07,000 Speaker 1: by saying, quote, I respectfully urged Congress to act promptly 18 00:01:07,280 --> 00:01:10,000 Speaker 1: to protect the full faith and credit of the United States. 19 00:01:10,640 --> 00:01:13,880 Speaker 1: So as we approached the debt ceiling debate, I felt 20 00:01:13,880 --> 00:01:16,600 Speaker 1: strongly it's important we know the history of our national debt, 21 00:01:17,000 --> 00:01:19,960 Speaker 1: how we got to thirty one point three trillion dollars 22 00:01:19,959 --> 00:01:22,800 Speaker 1: of national debts to day, and what we should be 23 00:01:22,840 --> 00:01:26,640 Speaker 1: doing about it. So I'm really pleased to welcome back 24 00:01:26,720 --> 00:01:30,040 Speaker 1: my guest, Thomas Hunting. He is the former vice chairman 25 00:01:30,040 --> 00:01:34,280 Speaker 1: of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, former president and CEO 26 00:01:34,760 --> 00:01:37,640 Speaker 1: of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. He was 27 00:01:37,680 --> 00:01:40,440 Speaker 1: with the Federal Reserve for thirty eight years. He is 28 00:01:40,480 --> 00:01:43,760 Speaker 1: currently a Distinguished Senior Fellow at the Macadis Center at 29 00:01:43,800 --> 00:02:00,240 Speaker 1: George Mason University. Tom, welcome back, and thank thank you 30 00:02:00,240 --> 00:02:03,040 Speaker 1: for joining me again on News World. Thank you for 31 00:02:03,080 --> 00:02:05,960 Speaker 1: having me. It's good to be back, and interesting topic. 32 00:02:06,360 --> 00:02:08,160 Speaker 1: As I'll say, you know so much more about this 33 00:02:08,240 --> 00:02:11,320 Speaker 1: than I do. That I'm really grateful because I think 34 00:02:11,360 --> 00:02:13,679 Speaker 1: all of our listeners will find this to be a 35 00:02:13,880 --> 00:02:17,840 Speaker 1: very informative an educational conversation. So could you start with 36 00:02:17,960 --> 00:02:21,440 Speaker 1: sort of a history of the national debt? Well, it's 37 00:02:21,560 --> 00:02:27,800 Speaker 1: pretty straightforward. The Congress allocates spending, the Executive branch signs 38 00:02:27,880 --> 00:02:30,440 Speaker 1: the bill, and we have a new spending bill, and 39 00:02:30,639 --> 00:02:33,680 Speaker 1: it's more than the revenues that will generate through their 40 00:02:33,800 --> 00:02:38,360 Speaker 1: tax program and deficit results, and the deficit has to 41 00:02:38,360 --> 00:02:42,960 Speaker 1: be funded. Now traditionally, when you do that, you have 42 00:02:43,040 --> 00:02:45,480 Speaker 1: to go to the private sector and borrow those funds, 43 00:02:46,200 --> 00:02:49,040 Speaker 1: and that puts up with pressure on interest rates as 44 00:02:49,080 --> 00:02:51,919 Speaker 1: you take resources from the private sector, and that causes 45 00:02:52,360 --> 00:02:55,400 Speaker 1: the public and everyone to become to realize that debt 46 00:02:55,480 --> 00:02:59,080 Speaker 1: isn't free, and therefore you have to find ways to 47 00:02:59,160 --> 00:03:01,920 Speaker 1: address it going forward in terms of whether you're going 48 00:03:02,000 --> 00:03:06,200 Speaker 1: to watch your spending and or your tax system. What 49 00:03:06,480 --> 00:03:10,120 Speaker 1: I think has happened actually even before the pandemic over 50 00:03:10,160 --> 00:03:13,680 Speaker 1: the last more than a decade, because in twenty seven, 51 00:03:13,800 --> 00:03:16,720 Speaker 1: twenty eight, twenty nine, the deficit in the United States 52 00:03:16,800 --> 00:03:21,280 Speaker 1: was roughly let's say, ten or eleven trillion dollars. Now 53 00:03:21,280 --> 00:03:25,120 Speaker 1: we're at thirty one point three eight one trillion dollars. 54 00:03:25,200 --> 00:03:28,200 Speaker 1: You know that something has gone out. And that's something 55 00:03:28,280 --> 00:03:31,960 Speaker 1: I think is any kind of external discipline on the government, 56 00:03:32,160 --> 00:03:36,720 Speaker 1: the House, the Senate, and the administration to kind of 57 00:03:36,800 --> 00:03:39,360 Speaker 1: watch the spending and watch the revenues to make sure 58 00:03:39,400 --> 00:03:43,400 Speaker 1: there's some balance there. I understand deficits are sometimes necessary, 59 00:03:43,440 --> 00:03:46,119 Speaker 1: but in the long term you need to address those 60 00:03:46,120 --> 00:03:48,000 Speaker 1: to make sure they don't get out of hand. And 61 00:03:48,040 --> 00:03:51,400 Speaker 1: the absence of discipline is there is no longer an 62 00:03:51,560 --> 00:03:55,160 Speaker 1: external standard in terms of the demand for our debt. 63 00:03:55,200 --> 00:03:57,600 Speaker 1: We are the reserve currency, so it's allowed us to 64 00:03:57,720 --> 00:04:02,760 Speaker 1: issue this debt globally. The monetary policy authority has kept 65 00:04:02,760 --> 00:04:06,160 Speaker 1: the borrowing costs so attractive that the government has felt 66 00:04:06,560 --> 00:04:09,360 Speaker 1: very free to borrow more money, and it has and 67 00:04:09,440 --> 00:04:12,440 Speaker 1: the Congress itself, and I mean both parties. If the 68 00:04:12,480 --> 00:04:15,200 Speaker 1: Democrats want to spend more money, and though they can't 69 00:04:15,200 --> 00:04:18,760 Speaker 1: get tax increases, they spend it anyway. The Republicans do 70 00:04:18,839 --> 00:04:22,320 Speaker 1: not want tax increases and can't stop the spending increases, 71 00:04:22,440 --> 00:04:25,279 Speaker 1: or won't you end up with ever greater taxes. Plus 72 00:04:27,120 --> 00:04:30,320 Speaker 1: two thirds of the spending budget is in entitlements, which 73 00:04:30,320 --> 00:04:35,360 Speaker 1: are indexed to inflation. They're mandatory spending their index, so 74 00:04:35,480 --> 00:04:37,640 Speaker 1: the spending is going to grow. If you're going to 75 00:04:37,839 --> 00:04:40,960 Speaker 1: address this issue long term, you have to come to 76 00:04:41,120 --> 00:04:46,080 Speaker 1: some kind of a solution that limits the spending program 77 00:04:46,440 --> 00:04:52,320 Speaker 1: going forward, or ties taxes to better control of spending. Something. 78 00:04:52,520 --> 00:04:54,880 Speaker 1: I think you know that because you were a leader, 79 00:04:55,200 --> 00:04:57,760 Speaker 1: and now I think the pay go system that puts 80 00:04:57,760 --> 00:05:00,680 Speaker 1: some discipline back in the thing, that's shorter thing we 81 00:05:00,720 --> 00:05:03,520 Speaker 1: need going forward. In my opinion, I was very proud 82 00:05:03,520 --> 00:05:06,080 Speaker 1: of the fact that a speaker, I launched the effort 83 00:05:06,120 --> 00:05:09,760 Speaker 1: that led to the only four consecutive balanced budgets in 84 00:05:09,839 --> 00:05:13,480 Speaker 1: your lifetime. And actually when I left office, Alan greenspan 85 00:05:13,560 --> 00:05:15,640 Speaker 1: is sharing the FED. You may remember I actually had 86 00:05:15,640 --> 00:05:17,680 Speaker 1: a working group trying to figure out if we paid 87 00:05:17,720 --> 00:05:20,600 Speaker 1: off the federal debt, how would they manage the money supply. 88 00:05:21,040 --> 00:05:24,240 Speaker 1: That seems so weird today. I have to tell you this. 89 00:05:24,320 --> 00:05:26,080 Speaker 1: I remember that I was on the FMC at the 90 00:05:26,120 --> 00:05:29,039 Speaker 1: time and I kind of chuckled because I said, you know, 91 00:05:29,120 --> 00:05:31,839 Speaker 1: this is wonderful that we have this situation, but it's 92 00:05:31,839 --> 00:05:36,000 Speaker 1: not going to last. It didn't. No, it didn't. But 93 00:05:36,120 --> 00:05:38,719 Speaker 1: you know, the only time I think we've ever fully 94 00:05:38,720 --> 00:05:41,720 Speaker 1: paid off the national debt was Andrew Jackson, and there 95 00:05:41,760 --> 00:05:44,320 Speaker 1: was a brief parade, there was no money, and he 96 00:05:44,360 --> 00:05:46,520 Speaker 1: actually took the surplus and gave it out to the 97 00:05:46,560 --> 00:05:51,039 Speaker 1: undebted states. But that also created a certain level of instability. 98 00:05:51,680 --> 00:05:54,160 Speaker 1: It's a very complex story. One of the things I 99 00:05:54,200 --> 00:05:57,000 Speaker 1: think people don't fully yet is you know the death 100 00:05:57,040 --> 00:06:00,720 Speaker 1: ceiling was raised seven times under Obama, was raised seven 101 00:06:00,760 --> 00:06:04,920 Speaker 1: times under George W. Bush. The process of raising it, 102 00:06:05,279 --> 00:06:09,160 Speaker 1: as I understand it, historically, prior to about nineteen seventeen, 103 00:06:09,520 --> 00:06:14,640 Speaker 1: Congress would literally have to authorize each bond issue, and 104 00:06:14,680 --> 00:06:16,839 Speaker 1: they decided that was too big a pain, so they 105 00:06:16,920 --> 00:06:19,599 Speaker 1: went to a death seal and control model, which we've 106 00:06:19,600 --> 00:06:21,839 Speaker 1: now had with us for over one hundred years. I 107 00:06:21,880 --> 00:06:23,880 Speaker 1: think one of the things people get confused by is, 108 00:06:23,960 --> 00:06:27,400 Speaker 1: let's say that Secretary Yelling is right. She said, Basically, 109 00:06:27,680 --> 00:06:30,920 Speaker 1: they technically crossed the line last week. But they can 110 00:06:31,120 --> 00:06:34,880 Speaker 1: manage the cash flow, and they can manage the way 111 00:06:34,880 --> 00:06:38,440 Speaker 1: in which bills come due, probably up through sometime in June, 112 00:06:38,880 --> 00:06:42,640 Speaker 1: without technically having a problem. What would the real world 113 00:06:42,720 --> 00:06:46,880 Speaker 1: consequences be if the United States was unable to find 114 00:06:46,920 --> 00:06:51,000 Speaker 1: a solution, Well, I think it'd be pretty dramatic because 115 00:06:51,160 --> 00:06:54,760 Speaker 1: number one, people don't understand, so that means it's clear 116 00:06:55,120 --> 00:06:58,839 Speaker 1: in people's minds that the government would not pay interest 117 00:06:58,920 --> 00:07:02,839 Speaker 1: on its debt held globally, not only domestically, so that 118 00:07:02,880 --> 00:07:06,880 Speaker 1: would bring uncertainty forward. Also, you have to borrow to 119 00:07:06,960 --> 00:07:11,480 Speaker 1: pay your millions of government employees, So that would be 120 00:07:12,000 --> 00:07:16,360 Speaker 1: a question mark, and I think all that uncertainty would 121 00:07:16,480 --> 00:07:20,000 Speaker 1: undermine the economy. If we are in danger of a recession, 122 00:07:20,040 --> 00:07:22,960 Speaker 1: that might actually make it deeper. So I think there 123 00:07:23,000 --> 00:07:29,720 Speaker 1: aren't serious consequences from failing to increase if the US 124 00:07:29,800 --> 00:07:34,160 Speaker 1: actually technically defaulted, that it was unable to pay the 125 00:07:34,280 --> 00:07:37,000 Speaker 1: bonds as they rolled over, which is something you've seen 126 00:07:37,120 --> 00:07:40,360 Speaker 1: Argentine to do several times in other countries. But given 127 00:07:40,440 --> 00:07:42,600 Speaker 1: the size of our economy and the role of the 128 00:07:42,640 --> 00:07:45,960 Speaker 1: dollar worldwide, how big a shock to the world fiscal 129 00:07:46,000 --> 00:07:50,400 Speaker 1: system would an American default be. It's hard to say, 130 00:07:50,440 --> 00:07:53,600 Speaker 1: I guess, but in the sense it would be significant 131 00:07:53,720 --> 00:07:58,080 Speaker 1: because it is the global reserve currency, and that currency is, 132 00:07:58,560 --> 00:08:01,200 Speaker 1: shall we say, supported by the fact that everyone knows 133 00:08:01,480 --> 00:08:05,640 Speaker 1: it is a reliable debt out there and the US 134 00:08:05,760 --> 00:08:08,200 Speaker 1: can in fact fund it even if it has to 135 00:08:08,200 --> 00:08:11,400 Speaker 1: borrow more. And if you take that away, people say, 136 00:08:11,440 --> 00:08:15,360 Speaker 1: well what do I do next? And uncertaintly undermines economic 137 00:08:15,440 --> 00:08:18,640 Speaker 1: systems in the US. But because we are the reserve currency, 138 00:08:18,720 --> 00:08:21,200 Speaker 1: I think more broadly, so I think it is a 139 00:08:21,280 --> 00:08:24,880 Speaker 1: serious issue, and I don't think waiting until you have 140 00:08:25,280 --> 00:08:27,800 Speaker 1: up against a debt ceiling is any way to manage 141 00:08:28,400 --> 00:08:33,400 Speaker 1: the responsibility of an international reserve currency. So the Congress, 142 00:08:34,000 --> 00:08:37,120 Speaker 1: both parties have to come and say, we can't go 143 00:08:37,160 --> 00:08:40,280 Speaker 1: on like this. We've got to get this thing worked out. 144 00:08:40,280 --> 00:08:44,240 Speaker 1: And I do think it's a little bit like calling wolf. Now, 145 00:08:44,280 --> 00:08:46,240 Speaker 1: we've done it so many times, like you said, seven 146 00:08:46,280 --> 00:08:50,600 Speaker 1: times under Obama, seven times under Bush. I've seen standoffs before. 147 00:08:51,000 --> 00:08:54,760 Speaker 1: We've had temporary shutdowns, and then you open it up 148 00:08:54,760 --> 00:08:56,640 Speaker 1: again and people say, well, it'll be okay. So what 149 00:08:56,800 --> 00:09:00,600 Speaker 1: everyone expects is that there'll be a lot of yelling 150 00:09:00,600 --> 00:09:02,560 Speaker 1: and streaming over the next six months, and that there 151 00:09:02,559 --> 00:09:05,160 Speaker 1: will be some kind of a compromise that will come 152 00:09:05,160 --> 00:09:07,400 Speaker 1: forward and that we will go forward. That's there's sumpsh 153 00:09:07,559 --> 00:09:11,000 Speaker 1: people are operating on although they're not quite sure, and 154 00:09:11,040 --> 00:09:14,520 Speaker 1: the less sure they become that then the more I 155 00:09:14,559 --> 00:09:17,280 Speaker 1: think risk there is to the domestic economy and to 156 00:09:17,320 --> 00:09:20,040 Speaker 1: the global economy. Just to make it clear for our listeners, 157 00:09:20,640 --> 00:09:24,480 Speaker 1: isn't it true that being the world's reserve currency is 158 00:09:24,520 --> 00:09:28,880 Speaker 1: an enormous economic advantage of United States? Absolutely? When the 159 00:09:28,880 --> 00:09:32,320 Speaker 1: pound was the world reserve currency, it gave Britain enormous 160 00:09:32,400 --> 00:09:35,240 Speaker 1: leverage and now we've had for over a half century 161 00:09:35,600 --> 00:09:39,080 Speaker 1: all the advantages of being the safest place in the world, 162 00:09:39,440 --> 00:09:41,720 Speaker 1: which is why my daughter, who lives in Key, Biscaine, 163 00:09:42,120 --> 00:09:45,520 Speaker 1: sees an amazing number of Latin Americans who it's a 164 00:09:45,559 --> 00:09:48,360 Speaker 1: flight to safety. I mean, they trust the United States 165 00:09:48,600 --> 00:09:52,200 Speaker 1: when they don't trust necessarily their local government. And so 166 00:09:52,240 --> 00:09:54,680 Speaker 1: it pours capital into the US in a way that 167 00:09:55,080 --> 00:09:58,240 Speaker 1: I think we don't fully appreciate. So in a sense, 168 00:09:58,920 --> 00:10:01,560 Speaker 1: if we could work backward, we have to find a 169 00:10:01,600 --> 00:10:04,760 Speaker 1: way to solve this, and not solving it is not 170 00:10:04,840 --> 00:10:07,280 Speaker 1: an option. It's not an option, and for us in 171 00:10:07,320 --> 00:10:11,559 Speaker 1: the long run, it's absolutely critical because you can print money, 172 00:10:11,679 --> 00:10:14,600 Speaker 1: and that's basically what we're doing here. You can print 173 00:10:14,640 --> 00:10:19,520 Speaker 1: money until you've actually debatched your currency, and then what 174 00:10:19,600 --> 00:10:22,880 Speaker 1: do you do. It's not something that happens tomorrow. It 175 00:10:22,920 --> 00:10:26,439 Speaker 1: takes decades perhaps, but just think about it. I mean, 176 00:10:26,440 --> 00:10:30,560 Speaker 1: we've increased our debt and therefore the amount of money 177 00:10:30,720 --> 00:10:33,839 Speaker 1: from ten trillion to thirty one trillion dollars in a 178 00:10:33,920 --> 00:10:37,000 Speaker 1: little more than a decade. If we continue at that rate, 179 00:10:37,400 --> 00:10:40,680 Speaker 1: you are inviting inflation, you are inviting loss of confidence 180 00:10:40,760 --> 00:10:44,400 Speaker 1: in your currency. Now, our advantage also is the rest 181 00:10:44,400 --> 00:10:48,080 Speaker 1: of the world is managing as poorly as we are, 182 00:10:48,559 --> 00:10:50,960 Speaker 1: and therefore it still makes us kind of what I 183 00:10:51,000 --> 00:10:54,360 Speaker 1: call grading on the curve, still keeps us a preferred currency, 184 00:10:54,760 --> 00:10:57,880 Speaker 1: but you can't assume that in reportuity and be a 185 00:10:57,960 --> 00:11:01,760 Speaker 1: world class economy. I think there is a point where 186 00:11:02,400 --> 00:11:06,200 Speaker 1: in the dollar worldwide, literally in twenty one hundred dollar 187 00:11:06,240 --> 00:11:10,079 Speaker 1: bill units, is a sort of an invisible currency and 188 00:11:10,200 --> 00:11:12,920 Speaker 1: virtually every country in the world. But that's because they 189 00:11:12,920 --> 00:11:15,400 Speaker 1: actually think it'll be worth a dollar. And yet when 190 00:11:15,400 --> 00:11:18,600 Speaker 1: you start getting seven eight nine percent inflation, you literally 191 00:11:18,640 --> 00:11:20,960 Speaker 1: are basically cheating the people who are holding the money. 192 00:11:21,640 --> 00:11:24,800 Speaker 1: Not only that, when you get percent inflation, you're cheating 193 00:11:24,800 --> 00:11:27,400 Speaker 1: the world that holds it. You're cheating your own citizens 194 00:11:27,400 --> 00:11:30,360 Speaker 1: who hold and you're taxing your citizens. So it's a 195 00:11:30,480 --> 00:11:35,560 Speaker 1: very irresponsible path to be on, I think. And you 196 00:11:35,600 --> 00:11:38,199 Speaker 1: know the other community is it picks up its own momentum. 197 00:11:38,360 --> 00:11:41,959 Speaker 1: We are index two thirds of our government to inflation, 198 00:11:42,040 --> 00:11:44,120 Speaker 1: so that means debt has to go up. How are 199 00:11:44,120 --> 00:11:47,240 Speaker 1: you going to fund it? Secondly, the interest on the 200 00:11:47,280 --> 00:11:50,679 Speaker 1: debt has to go up, and as interest rates are rising, 201 00:11:50,720 --> 00:11:53,440 Speaker 1: it's going to go up extremely rapidly, So that's going 202 00:11:53,480 --> 00:11:56,920 Speaker 1: to cause greater pressures going forward. And where's this money 203 00:11:56,960 --> 00:11:59,920 Speaker 1: going to come from? More printy, and that's where you 204 00:12:00,120 --> 00:12:02,679 Speaker 1: get yourself in this vicious cycle. And I think you 205 00:12:03,080 --> 00:12:06,000 Speaker 1: decrease the value of your currency over time to a 206 00:12:06,080 --> 00:12:10,520 Speaker 1: point where it becomes less of a sought aft international currency. 207 00:12:10,600 --> 00:12:31,880 Speaker 1: Now again, takes time, but we're working on it. Well. Yeah, 208 00:12:31,880 --> 00:12:34,120 Speaker 1: I mean, Congressional Budget Office has been warning since I 209 00:12:34,160 --> 00:12:38,920 Speaker 1: think twenty fourteen that the current spending cycles unsustainable and 210 00:12:39,000 --> 00:12:41,480 Speaker 1: we'll cripple the economy and lower the standards of living. 211 00:12:41,920 --> 00:12:46,080 Speaker 1: They're absolutely right. I mean, we're increasing our carried so 212 00:12:46,400 --> 00:12:50,280 Speaker 1: rapidly that we will in fact slow Here's one of 213 00:12:50,320 --> 00:12:53,680 Speaker 1: my concerns. The feeder reserve has to walk away from 214 00:12:53,679 --> 00:12:56,400 Speaker 1: this themselves. They have to provide some discipline. They have 215 00:12:56,520 --> 00:13:00,240 Speaker 1: been monetizing this debt for some time now. That's allowed 216 00:13:00,280 --> 00:13:02,520 Speaker 1: the government to fund this at very low rates. That 217 00:13:02,679 --> 00:13:06,000 Speaker 1: cannot continue. People have to realize this coming out of 218 00:13:06,040 --> 00:13:10,000 Speaker 1: their pocket so that we don't just spend openly and freely. 219 00:13:10,080 --> 00:13:12,520 Speaker 1: We know there has to be consequences to it, and 220 00:13:12,600 --> 00:13:14,600 Speaker 1: we've got to learn that sooner or rather than later. 221 00:13:14,800 --> 00:13:17,360 Speaker 1: What my point was going to be when you realize it, 222 00:13:17,440 --> 00:13:20,080 Speaker 1: and then not too distant future. At the way we're 223 00:13:20,120 --> 00:13:24,679 Speaker 1: going paying interest on the debt will be larger than 224 00:13:24,720 --> 00:13:28,600 Speaker 1: the defense budget. Absolutely, So we'll be taxing our children 225 00:13:28,640 --> 00:13:31,080 Speaker 1: and grandchildren not to pay off the debt, but just 226 00:13:31,120 --> 00:13:33,800 Speaker 1: to pay interest every year. Think about it. You have 227 00:13:33,840 --> 00:13:37,360 Speaker 1: to pay let's just say roughly four hundred billion dollars. 228 00:13:37,400 --> 00:13:39,559 Speaker 1: Soon our injuries on the day will be over eight 229 00:13:39,640 --> 00:13:43,280 Speaker 1: hundred billion dollars. And if we keep accumulating, and it 230 00:13:43,320 --> 00:13:47,200 Speaker 1: looks like we will trillion dollars of new deficits every year, 231 00:13:47,800 --> 00:13:50,240 Speaker 1: we're going to be paying on interest a trillion dollars 232 00:13:50,280 --> 00:13:55,360 Speaker 1: and it will exceed the defense budget and other discretionary items. 233 00:13:55,880 --> 00:13:58,480 Speaker 1: The big part of that will be then entitlement program 234 00:13:58,520 --> 00:14:01,000 Speaker 1: will balloon. We are on a very dangerous path, in 235 00:14:01,040 --> 00:14:03,760 Speaker 1: my opinion. Part of the fight that she is going 236 00:14:03,800 --> 00:14:06,760 Speaker 1: to be between those who are willing to raise the 237 00:14:06,800 --> 00:14:11,280 Speaker 1: debt ceiling if there are reforms on spending, and those 238 00:14:11,320 --> 00:14:13,679 Speaker 1: who are demanding that the deat sailing be raised with 239 00:14:13,679 --> 00:14:17,000 Speaker 1: no reforms. I have a hunch that the next month 240 00:14:17,120 --> 00:14:20,120 Speaker 1: or two that's going to be the central debate. I think. 241 00:14:20,160 --> 00:14:22,440 Speaker 1: So it's going to be fingerpointing for the next month 242 00:14:22,520 --> 00:14:25,120 Speaker 1: or two. You have to raise it. And the truth 243 00:14:25,320 --> 00:14:27,240 Speaker 1: is they are going to have to raise the ceiling 244 00:14:27,320 --> 00:14:31,160 Speaker 1: because the money is committed. I mean, the debates that 245 00:14:31,280 --> 00:14:35,200 Speaker 1: took place in December over increasing both defense and non 246 00:14:35,240 --> 00:14:39,400 Speaker 1: defense discriptionary items was the debate that's said, are we 247 00:14:39,520 --> 00:14:45,000 Speaker 1: going to spend ever more money? Understandably important debate and 248 00:14:45,080 --> 00:14:48,640 Speaker 1: the agreement was yes, we are. So now we know 249 00:14:48,760 --> 00:14:51,000 Speaker 1: that that and they knew that that would be exceeded, 250 00:14:51,200 --> 00:14:54,479 Speaker 1: that ceiling would be exceeded, and now we're in that situation. 251 00:14:54,560 --> 00:14:57,840 Speaker 1: So you've agreed to spend it, you're spending it, and 252 00:14:57,960 --> 00:15:00,880 Speaker 1: now you have to fund it. And the discussion and 253 00:15:00,960 --> 00:15:03,920 Speaker 1: I think it is, okay, how do we re establish 254 00:15:04,000 --> 00:15:09,840 Speaker 1: some kind of discipline around future spending that obviates the 255 00:15:09,920 --> 00:15:14,680 Speaker 1: need to have these frequent debt ceiling increases? And some 256 00:15:14,720 --> 00:15:18,000 Speaker 1: people say, well, just remove it, and that is an option, 257 00:15:18,440 --> 00:15:21,240 Speaker 1: but at the same time, I'm not sure that would 258 00:15:21,280 --> 00:15:24,440 Speaker 1: provide any additional discipline to the spending side, So that 259 00:15:24,520 --> 00:15:28,240 Speaker 1: has to be thought through. President Biden has a non 260 00:15:28,240 --> 00:15:32,720 Speaker 1: negotiation kind of an initial stance, but since he actually 261 00:15:32,760 --> 00:15:36,520 Speaker 1: negotiated in twenty eleven on the death ceiling. I'm not 262 00:15:36,560 --> 00:15:39,240 Speaker 1: so sure that this isn't sort of the opening round 263 00:15:39,440 --> 00:15:42,360 Speaker 1: rather than the final argument, because I don't think he 264 00:15:42,400 --> 00:15:47,080 Speaker 1: can get it out of the house without very substantial changes. Well, 265 00:15:47,160 --> 00:15:50,280 Speaker 1: I certainly hope it's the first, shall we say, salvo 266 00:15:50,400 --> 00:15:53,720 Speaker 1: over the field, and I hope both sides are saying, 267 00:15:53,840 --> 00:15:56,040 Speaker 1: we're going to see how we get to a compromise. 268 00:15:56,680 --> 00:15:59,080 Speaker 1: But both sides realize that they have to get to 269 00:15:59,120 --> 00:16:02,720 Speaker 1: a compromise the past not being able to do that 270 00:16:03,000 --> 00:16:07,320 Speaker 1: because the debt's going to only increase. It's indexed, it's 271 00:16:07,320 --> 00:16:10,600 Speaker 1: going to increase. So how do you not only raise it, 272 00:16:10,800 --> 00:16:14,120 Speaker 1: but how do you get a mechanism to keep it 273 00:16:14,160 --> 00:16:18,160 Speaker 1: from going without some kind of paygo, some kind of 274 00:16:18,400 --> 00:16:21,640 Speaker 1: discipline around our spending. And if we want to do 275 00:16:21,720 --> 00:16:24,200 Speaker 1: tax decreases, how we do it, how we pay for 276 00:16:24,280 --> 00:16:26,960 Speaker 1: it that whichever view you have, and I think there 277 00:16:26,960 --> 00:16:30,360 Speaker 1: are important differences there. But how you're going to negotiate 278 00:16:30,360 --> 00:16:33,240 Speaker 1: through that, I think has to be figured out now. 279 00:16:33,320 --> 00:16:35,640 Speaker 1: And this saying well, we're not going to talk to you, 280 00:16:36,240 --> 00:16:39,160 Speaker 1: this is it. It won't work, and the American people 281 00:16:39,200 --> 00:16:43,040 Speaker 1: will suffer, and so will every international position. I wonder 282 00:16:43,080 --> 00:16:46,520 Speaker 1: if this is a pretty good time to start raising 283 00:16:46,560 --> 00:16:48,640 Speaker 1: the point of we ought to get on a track 284 00:16:49,280 --> 00:16:52,640 Speaker 1: that would move us towards a balanced budget and start 285 00:16:52,720 --> 00:16:55,480 Speaker 1: thinking through what the reforms would have to be in 286 00:16:55,560 --> 00:16:58,240 Speaker 1: order to have a government we could actually afford. Does 287 00:16:58,280 --> 00:17:01,160 Speaker 1: that seem too pie in the sky to I hope not, 288 00:17:01,280 --> 00:17:04,400 Speaker 1: because it's essential. I mean, it's absolutely essential we begin 289 00:17:04,560 --> 00:17:08,000 Speaker 1: to do that again. Let me just tell you that 290 00:17:08,119 --> 00:17:14,040 Speaker 1: brought some meaningful discipline agreed upon and helped us address 291 00:17:14,840 --> 00:17:18,720 Speaker 1: the deficits, and we came towards a balanced budget. If 292 00:17:18,720 --> 00:17:22,880 Speaker 1: you think of the pandemic bail shall we say, crisis management. 293 00:17:22,920 --> 00:17:26,480 Speaker 1: In terms of the spending, there were transfer payments not 294 00:17:26,560 --> 00:17:29,320 Speaker 1: just to those who were unemployed, but the people who 295 00:17:29,320 --> 00:17:34,040 Speaker 1: were well employed that we're receiving monthly checks. Our excess savings, 296 00:17:34,040 --> 00:17:37,520 Speaker 1: that is, savings above the long term average increased over 297 00:17:37,560 --> 00:17:40,480 Speaker 1: two and a half trillion dollars. So what we did 298 00:17:40,600 --> 00:17:43,000 Speaker 1: is we said, well, this money is free, we want 299 00:17:43,040 --> 00:17:45,080 Speaker 1: to make sure we stimulate the economy. We'll put all 300 00:17:45,080 --> 00:17:47,439 Speaker 1: this money out even to people who are working. So 301 00:17:47,520 --> 00:17:51,919 Speaker 1: there was the absence of discipline made the ability to 302 00:17:52,000 --> 00:17:55,840 Speaker 1: spend I think irresponsibly more easy, and you have to 303 00:17:55,880 --> 00:17:57,959 Speaker 1: take that out of it. You have to take that 304 00:17:58,040 --> 00:18:00,480 Speaker 1: out first, and then you have to bring greater stability 305 00:18:00,560 --> 00:18:04,680 Speaker 1: into how we spend our money. It's not free. It 306 00:18:04,720 --> 00:18:10,240 Speaker 1: takes resources, it transfers resources. It does disincent people from 307 00:18:10,240 --> 00:18:13,159 Speaker 1: doing tasks they might do had they not had the 308 00:18:13,280 --> 00:18:16,879 Speaker 1: transfer payment brought to them. This is the time to 309 00:18:17,040 --> 00:18:22,280 Speaker 1: seriously think responsibly about how we put more people back 310 00:18:22,280 --> 00:18:26,280 Speaker 1: into the labor market, how we discipline our spending, how 311 00:18:26,320 --> 00:18:29,640 Speaker 1: we pay for our spending. These are things that I 312 00:18:29,680 --> 00:18:32,919 Speaker 1: think have fallen by the wayside and need to be 313 00:18:32,960 --> 00:18:35,879 Speaker 1: brought back sooner rather than later, or I think we 314 00:18:36,040 --> 00:18:55,080 Speaker 1: undermine this wonderful economy in the long term. And the 315 00:18:55,119 --> 00:18:57,840 Speaker 1: America's New Majority Project that we've been working where we've 316 00:18:58,119 --> 00:19:00,560 Speaker 1: done a lot of focus groups, a lot of Paul's 317 00:19:00,600 --> 00:19:04,960 Speaker 1: about seventy six percent support for having a work requirement 318 00:19:05,440 --> 00:19:08,199 Speaker 1: if you get money. We found when we did that 319 00:19:08,240 --> 00:19:12,280 Speaker 1: in nineteen ninety six on welfare, people just streamed into 320 00:19:12,320 --> 00:19:15,760 Speaker 1: the private sector market and got off of welfare because 321 00:19:16,080 --> 00:19:17,720 Speaker 1: if they're actually going to have to do something for it, 322 00:19:17,720 --> 00:19:19,640 Speaker 1: that I might as well go get a job. And 323 00:19:19,680 --> 00:19:22,440 Speaker 1: I think there are fourteen or sixteen states now where 324 00:19:22,440 --> 00:19:25,840 Speaker 1: the amount they subsidize is so great that you lose 325 00:19:26,000 --> 00:19:29,360 Speaker 1: money if you go to work, which is crazy. I'm 326 00:19:29,440 --> 00:19:32,040 Speaker 1: aware of those studies, and I think it is crazy. 327 00:19:32,080 --> 00:19:35,600 Speaker 1: I think it undermines your ability to produce. As a nation. 328 00:19:36,040 --> 00:19:40,440 Speaker 1: We have ten million jobs and six million job seekers. 329 00:19:40,880 --> 00:19:42,680 Speaker 1: I don't think we've been out to balance that bad 330 00:19:42,880 --> 00:19:45,760 Speaker 1: in my memory, that's for sure. So why don't we 331 00:19:45,840 --> 00:19:48,439 Speaker 1: think about that in terms of the supply of labor 332 00:19:48,680 --> 00:19:51,399 Speaker 1: and what's keeping that supply from increasing. Is it really 333 00:19:51,440 --> 00:19:54,119 Speaker 1: that we don't have laborers, or is it that we 334 00:19:54,200 --> 00:19:59,400 Speaker 1: have incentives that keep labor on the sidelines at least 335 00:19:59,440 --> 00:20:02,720 Speaker 1: it deserves. There's a lot of attention buying the Congress 336 00:20:02,720 --> 00:20:05,840 Speaker 1: of the United States. They've been five members already who 337 00:20:05,880 --> 00:20:09,600 Speaker 1: have proposed balanced budget amendments. Representing Scott Perry, I think 338 00:20:09,760 --> 00:20:13,080 Speaker 1: is a very interesting one which he called proposing a 339 00:20:13,080 --> 00:20:17,080 Speaker 1: balanced budget Amendment to the Constitution, requiring that each agency 340 00:20:17,080 --> 00:20:20,960 Speaker 1: and department's funding is justified, and he goes through how 341 00:20:21,000 --> 00:20:23,560 Speaker 1: he would require us to get to a balanced budget 342 00:20:23,600 --> 00:20:27,320 Speaker 1: and what we do. Brian Fitzpatrick from Pennsylvania also introduced 343 00:20:27,320 --> 00:20:30,640 Speaker 1: a resolution called proposing an Amendment to the Constitution United 344 00:20:30,640 --> 00:20:34,160 Speaker 1: States to provide for balanced budgets. Representative Derek Van Orden 345 00:20:34,480 --> 00:20:39,160 Speaker 1: from Wisconsin introduced a similar resolution, and Representative Jay Obernotte 346 00:20:39,400 --> 00:20:44,320 Speaker 1: from California introduced a resolution. Representing Zach Nunn from Iowa 347 00:20:44,400 --> 00:20:47,960 Speaker 1: introduced a resolution. So you're beginning to see across the 348 00:20:48,000 --> 00:20:51,240 Speaker 1: whole country. Members step forward and say, you know, let's 349 00:20:51,240 --> 00:20:55,520 Speaker 1: have a debate about whether or not we're going to 350 00:20:55,640 --> 00:20:59,160 Speaker 1: reform the government and get back to actually paying our 351 00:20:59,160 --> 00:21:02,040 Speaker 1: own way rather borrowing from our children and grandchildren. And 352 00:21:02,080 --> 00:21:04,919 Speaker 1: I think this may become one of the biggest issues 353 00:21:04,920 --> 00:21:07,920 Speaker 1: in this Congress by the time the debate really gets ruling. 354 00:21:08,400 --> 00:21:11,040 Speaker 1: They need to be introduced, and they need to be discussed, 355 00:21:11,040 --> 00:21:13,240 Speaker 1: and they need to be debated. And even if you 356 00:21:13,240 --> 00:21:16,760 Speaker 1: don't get balanced budget amendment, you get the discussion out 357 00:21:16,760 --> 00:21:20,359 Speaker 1: there and perhaps you get legislation that again, like your 358 00:21:20,400 --> 00:21:22,720 Speaker 1: period says wait a minute, we've got to get this 359 00:21:22,760 --> 00:21:24,880 Speaker 1: plan together and we've got to bring our budget back 360 00:21:24,880 --> 00:21:28,399 Speaker 1: into balance. You know, there are always exceptions, But here's 361 00:21:28,400 --> 00:21:32,360 Speaker 1: the difficulty. I understand the exceptions. I mean wartime, yes, 362 00:21:32,520 --> 00:21:36,480 Speaker 1: the pandemic for part of it, but it becomes a 363 00:21:37,000 --> 00:21:40,600 Speaker 1: what I call the entry point into forever subsidies from 364 00:21:40,600 --> 00:21:44,879 Speaker 1: the government, forever payments, transfer payments that you can't back 365 00:21:44,880 --> 00:21:48,159 Speaker 1: out of because there's no rule that says, wait a minute, 366 00:21:48,320 --> 00:21:50,960 Speaker 1: you've got to balance the budget within certain time period, 367 00:21:51,160 --> 00:21:53,880 Speaker 1: or if you're going to increase the spending, you've got 368 00:21:53,880 --> 00:21:56,840 Speaker 1: to cut back here. You've got to bring those rules back, 369 00:21:57,280 --> 00:22:00,879 Speaker 1: or I think we are going to be having these 370 00:22:01,600 --> 00:22:04,920 Speaker 1: standoffs again in two or three years when the next 371 00:22:04,920 --> 00:22:07,919 Speaker 1: ceiling is broken, and it will be unless you have 372 00:22:08,160 --> 00:22:11,960 Speaker 1: some kind of bind around the spending and taxing of 373 00:22:12,000 --> 00:22:14,880 Speaker 1: the United States. Within the United States, when we sent 374 00:22:14,920 --> 00:22:18,480 Speaker 1: out to balance the budget, we deliberately sidestep Social Security 375 00:22:18,560 --> 00:22:20,840 Speaker 1: because we knew how the left would use it and 376 00:22:20,920 --> 00:22:24,080 Speaker 1: we knew we couldn't sustain it. Margaret Thatcher and all 377 00:22:24,080 --> 00:22:27,560 Speaker 1: the privatizations she did, never touched the National Health Service 378 00:22:27,560 --> 00:22:30,080 Speaker 1: for the same reason. There are certain things you can't do. 379 00:22:30,359 --> 00:22:33,880 Speaker 1: But we were able to reform Medicare in a presidential 380 00:22:33,880 --> 00:22:37,399 Speaker 1: election year with AARPS support, And part of the reason 381 00:22:37,600 --> 00:22:41,640 Speaker 1: was we convinced everybody how serious we were, and everybody said, 382 00:22:41,680 --> 00:22:44,399 Speaker 1: you know, if everybody's going to give a little, I 383 00:22:44,440 --> 00:22:46,919 Speaker 1: guess I've got to get so you create a totally 384 00:22:47,000 --> 00:22:51,679 Speaker 1: different psychological environment for this kind of conversation. Absolutely, you 385 00:22:51,760 --> 00:22:55,439 Speaker 1: have to have shared sacrifice. I call it. You know 386 00:22:55,480 --> 00:22:58,560 Speaker 1: it's important, like you say, for your children and grandchildren. 387 00:22:58,640 --> 00:23:00,480 Speaker 1: You know you have to do these things. So let's 388 00:23:00,520 --> 00:23:02,800 Speaker 1: get started doing it and do it in a way 389 00:23:02,840 --> 00:23:06,600 Speaker 1: that we all have confidence we're sharing in this adjustment. 390 00:23:06,800 --> 00:23:08,879 Speaker 1: And you get that by talking to one another and 391 00:23:08,960 --> 00:23:12,360 Speaker 1: knowing that is in the Congress. Instead of saying your 392 00:23:12,440 --> 00:23:15,280 Speaker 1: bad we know we have this issue. We've got to 393 00:23:15,320 --> 00:23:18,440 Speaker 1: find a way to do exactly what you're saying and 394 00:23:18,880 --> 00:23:21,439 Speaker 1: sounds naive. Without that, I don't know how you're going 395 00:23:21,480 --> 00:23:23,400 Speaker 1: to get there. It's like any family. I mean, you've 396 00:23:23,400 --> 00:23:25,720 Speaker 1: got the family has to be engaged. The family has 397 00:23:25,760 --> 00:23:28,600 Speaker 1: to feel like, hey, this is important to all of us, 398 00:23:28,600 --> 00:23:31,080 Speaker 1: and I'm going to do my share exactly right. Otherwise 399 00:23:31,080 --> 00:23:33,600 Speaker 1: it doesn't work. Otherwise it doesn't work and falls apartment. 400 00:23:33,680 --> 00:23:36,240 Speaker 1: I want to thank you for joining me. I think, well, here, 401 00:23:36,280 --> 00:23:39,240 Speaker 1: how hopefully our listeners have gained a better understanding both 402 00:23:39,280 --> 00:23:42,560 Speaker 1: of the national debt, the gradual problem we're sliding into 403 00:23:42,960 --> 00:23:45,760 Speaker 1: the debt ceiling, and the conversation we all need to 404 00:23:45,800 --> 00:23:48,919 Speaker 1: have to use the debt ceiling as an opportunity to 405 00:23:49,040 --> 00:23:52,920 Speaker 1: start turning the corner on runaway spending. It's always great 406 00:23:52,920 --> 00:23:55,359 Speaker 1: to have you. You're so knowledgeable and have such a 407 00:23:55,400 --> 00:23:58,919 Speaker 1: solid background. I want to thank you again for joining 408 00:23:58,920 --> 00:24:01,600 Speaker 1: me on news world and sharing with us. Thank you 409 00:24:01,640 --> 00:24:07,359 Speaker 1: for having me, good to be with you. Thank you 410 00:24:07,440 --> 00:24:10,200 Speaker 1: to my guests Thomas Hunting. You can learn more about 411 00:24:10,240 --> 00:24:13,679 Speaker 1: the death sailing debate on our show page at newtsworld 412 00:24:13,720 --> 00:24:17,920 Speaker 1: dot com. Newts World is produced by gingwishtree sixty and iHeartMedia. 413 00:24:18,400 --> 00:24:22,920 Speaker 1: Our executive producer is Garnsey Sloan, our producer is Rebecca Howe, 414 00:24:23,280 --> 00:24:26,760 Speaker 1: and our researcher is Rachel Peterson. The our work for 415 00:24:26,800 --> 00:24:30,840 Speaker 1: the show was created by Steve Penley. Special thanks to 416 00:24:30,920 --> 00:24:34,280 Speaker 1: the team at Gingwish three sixty. If you've been enjoying Newtsworld, 417 00:24:34,520 --> 00:24:37,360 Speaker 1: I hope you'll go to Apple Podcast and both rate 418 00:24:37,440 --> 00:24:40,359 Speaker 1: us with five stars and give us a review so 419 00:24:40,480 --> 00:24:44,000 Speaker 1: others can learn what it's all about. Right now, listeners 420 00:24:44,040 --> 00:24:47,760 Speaker 1: of Newtsworld can sign up from my three free weekly 421 00:24:47,800 --> 00:24:53,000 Speaker 1: columns at gingwistre sixty dot com slash newsletter. I'm Newt Gingrich. 422 00:24:53,440 --> 00:24:54,520 Speaker 1: This is Newtsworld