WEBVTT - Round Two:  More Nasty & Concentrated.  David Ignatius Talks to Armstrong & Getty

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<v Speaker 1>After the international backlash Russia faced over the atrocities in Buccha,

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<v Speaker 1>Russian soldiers are now using mobile crematoriums in an effort

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<v Speaker 1>to erase any evidence of their war crimes by disposing

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<v Speaker 1>of the corpses of the innocent civilians they have killed.

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<v Speaker 1>And the Mariopal mayor making this haunting comparison quote, the

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<v Speaker 1>world has not seen the scale of a tragedy like

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<v Speaker 1>in Mariople since the Nazi concentration camps. The Russian fascists

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<v Speaker 1>turned our whole city into a death camp unquote. And

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<v Speaker 1>here spokesman John Kirby on where this is headed. Because

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<v Speaker 1>they're gonna be able to concentrate their efforts now in

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<v Speaker 1>a smaller geographical area, an area that they have been

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<v Speaker 1>fighting over now for eight years, we would expect that

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<v Speaker 1>the violence is only going to get worse. The fighting

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<v Speaker 1>is going to get more intense as they, as the Russians,

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<v Speaker 1>now try to redouble their efforts in a very much

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<v Speaker 1>smaller area of Ukraine. So so we're very concerned about

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<v Speaker 1>this development. We're watching it. So Jake Tapern CNN with

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<v Speaker 1>the mobile crematoriums trying to cover up the atrocities the

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<v Speaker 1>Russian soldiers are committing and then John Kirby, spokesman at

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<v Speaker 1>the Pentagon, they're saying things are going to get worse.

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<v Speaker 1>It's hard to imagine how they could. Um, So let's

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<v Speaker 1>bring in David Ignatius to start their columnist the Washington

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<v Speaker 1>Post covering foreign affairs. David, Welcome to the Armstrong and

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<v Speaker 1>Getty Show. Appreciate you joining us today. Thanks thanks for

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<v Speaker 1>having me watching these pictures and videos. Just absolutely amazing.

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<v Speaker 1>Can things get worse? Well, at first, as you say,

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<v Speaker 1>they're there, as a Secretary Lincoln put it there, they're

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<v Speaker 1>punching that got It's really uh hard horrified to see

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<v Speaker 1>what the Russian invaders have done. They were pushed out

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<v Speaker 1>of the north where they left this trail of gruesomely

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<v Speaker 1>kill bodies that we've been seeing. And they're now regrouping

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<v Speaker 1>to attack from the east and the south in the

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<v Speaker 1>Black Sea, the c of as of and it's just

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<v Speaker 1>John Kirby, the Pentagon spokesman, said, they'll concentrate their firepower

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<v Speaker 1>and if anything, it will be even a nasty or

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<v Speaker 1>more concentrated um as they as they focus on that

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<v Speaker 1>sector of Ukraine. UM. I've been trying to think and

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<v Speaker 1>to write a column today for the Washington Post about

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<v Speaker 1>how to think about the Round two that's about to begin.

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<v Speaker 1>The Round one was was bloody, horrifying, but it had

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<v Speaker 1>real success by the Ukrainian alterat, I mean, credible courage

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<v Speaker 1>and pushing the Russians back. What's Around two going to

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<v Speaker 1>be like and what kinds of assistance should the United

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<v Speaker 1>States and its allies be thinking about offering Ukrainians for

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<v Speaker 1>this sect and round. I think it needs to be

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<v Speaker 1>a different mix of weapons, more armor. With the Ukrainians

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<v Speaker 1>have shown that their military is tough. They can use

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<v Speaker 1>the armor that's sent in old Soviet tanks and armored

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<v Speaker 1>personal carriers from Eastern European countries. They could use long

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<v Speaker 1>range missiles to attack the Soviets in their rear basing

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<v Speaker 1>areas Soviets, excuse me, Russians, uh so um. I hope

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<v Speaker 1>that in this period before Round two begins, people are

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<v Speaker 1>thinking carefully about how to help the Ukrainians do as

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<v Speaker 1>well as they can against the onspot that's about to begin. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>So we were just talking a little bit ago. How

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<v Speaker 1>um it sounded like a big number when I heard

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<v Speaker 1>out the White House earlier this week that we had

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<v Speaker 1>given two billion dollars worth of military aid before they

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<v Speaker 1>started in a billion cents for a total of three billion.

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<v Speaker 1>But then I was just reading earlier today that at

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<v Speaker 1>the height of the Iraq War we were pumping in

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<v Speaker 1>nine billion dollars of you know, weaponry a month at

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<v Speaker 1>the time when we thought, you know, Iraq was important

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<v Speaker 1>enough for that level of money. So I don't I

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<v Speaker 1>don't know where we go money wise in Ukraine and

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<v Speaker 1>all that sort of stuff. But looking at your column today,

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<v Speaker 1>has Putin's brutality finally hit a wall in Ukraine. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>And a lot of talk about the investigating the crimes.

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<v Speaker 1>These are war crimes obviously, Is there is there any

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<v Speaker 1>hope of anybody being held to account for any of

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<v Speaker 1>this stuff? Well, the answer is yes, there's some hope,

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<v Speaker 1>but it's going to take years. Um. We know from

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<v Speaker 1>war crimes investigations that followed the Balkan Wars where there

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<v Speaker 1>were trustees committed Remember Benita is one famous name of

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<v Speaker 1>a town. Whether we're just terrible maskers that people can

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<v Speaker 1>be identified, commanders who authorized killings and then tracked down

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<v Speaker 1>and that happened and people were brought It's proud in

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<v Speaker 1>the Hague for war crimes. Um in that case, you

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<v Speaker 1>had the clear winners who were able to enforce the laws.

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<v Speaker 1>Whether we'll have that situation here remains to be seen.

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<v Speaker 1>But I counted my column a number of investigations that

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<v Speaker 1>are already other way. The International Criminal Court, not recognized

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<v Speaker 1>by the United States but recognized by most countries, has

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<v Speaker 1>already begun an investigation. France has three investigations underway about

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<v Speaker 1>war crimes against its own citizens. The Ukrainian Prosecutor General

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<v Speaker 1>has fifty thousand investigators gathering evidence right now. And then

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<v Speaker 1>you have all of the social media and journalistic record

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<v Speaker 1>that's been compiled. That's what we've been seeing obviously in

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<v Speaker 1>and it's amazing that when the Russians tried to deny

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<v Speaker 1>that they'd ever killed all those people whose bodies we've

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<v Speaker 1>seen in the terrible videos and no, no, no, it

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<v Speaker 1>didn't happen. He's see you can see the corpses are moving.

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<v Speaker 1>People have gone back through the video imagery and show

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<v Speaker 1>him that the Russian claims that the video images were

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<v Speaker 1>false are incorrect, that they've gone literally pixel by pixels

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<v Speaker 1>the show this, the Russian claims are false, these images

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<v Speaker 1>are real. And then they shout overhead Riconstance film that

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<v Speaker 1>was shot commercially back in mid March, that that show

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<v Speaker 1>the bodies already in the streets in But just so

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<v Speaker 1>yes is the answer. I do have some hope that

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<v Speaker 1>the evidence and the venue for prosecution will be there

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<v Speaker 1>to bring people to account. Um, getting back to what

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<v Speaker 1>you said a little bit ago, really got my attention.

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<v Speaker 1>This whole round two thing. I wasn't aware that, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>around had ended and a new round is starting in. Um.

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<v Speaker 1>General Milliy got everybody's attention the other day when he

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<v Speaker 1>said this is going to be measured in years. That

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<v Speaker 1>certainly got got my attention. He said, I don't think decade,

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<v Speaker 1>not sure decades with the plural, but certainly in years.

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<v Speaker 1>So he expects this the last a very long time.

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<v Speaker 1>How do you foresee this playing out from now going forward?

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<v Speaker 1>So I think it probably will last. It will be protracted.

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<v Speaker 1>That's the phrase that the Nation Security Adviser Jack Sullivan used,

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<v Speaker 1>and Milly was amplifying that. Um, we have to remember

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<v Speaker 1>that this war really has already been going on for

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<v Speaker 1>eight years. Good point. The war in the East began

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<v Speaker 1>in and it's been continuous. It's involved Russian and Ukrainian

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<v Speaker 1>regular altar units for those eight years. So in a sense,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, we're it's a continuing war. The next phase

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<v Speaker 1>will be the decisive battle for control of this eastern region.

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<v Speaker 1>And mostly I don't think the Russians will will try

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<v Speaker 1>to create a kind of zone from the eastern region

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<v Speaker 1>almost the dumb Boss across the south through Mario full

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<v Speaker 1>City that they've shattered all the way down to Odessa,

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<v Speaker 1>past Crimea, that they'll control all of the Black Sea

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<v Speaker 1>access to Ukraine. Ukraine will will be landlocked in effect,

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<v Speaker 1>and that that's the Russian goal. And and so it's

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<v Speaker 1>going to be a pitched battle. I think part of

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<v Speaker 1>what Generalinois is saying is that even if they succeed

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<v Speaker 1>in doing that, they face an intense resistance. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>people in Ukraine. When I visited Ukraine in light January,

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<v Speaker 1>just before the war began, even Russian speaking Ukrainians hated

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<v Speaker 1>the Russians. It's amazing how Putinous alienated the population of

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<v Speaker 1>that country, which he imagines, you know, loves Russia's it

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<v Speaker 1>feels part of the greater Russian nation. Do you think

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<v Speaker 1>he actually believes that stuff? Do you think he actually

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<v Speaker 1>believes that stuff? I do he I think he believed

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<v Speaker 1>it deeper. I think it's part of his self mystification

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<v Speaker 1>that led this war. You have to ask how did

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<v Speaker 1>Putin make such a huge mistake? And I think the

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<v Speaker 1>only answers that he truly believed it. You read his

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<v Speaker 1>essays and they almost you know, it's almost a religious

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<v Speaker 1>mission for him. So he did believe it. But he's

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<v Speaker 1>gonna he's gonna face protracted, prolonged resistance in any areas

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<v Speaker 1>that he conquers. So the Russians are facing war like

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<v Speaker 1>what we faced in Vietnam, and we remember how that

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<v Speaker 1>just dragged us and a little warlike the Russians face

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<v Speaker 1>in Afghanistan finally drove him out after ten years, or

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<v Speaker 1>like we face in Afghanistan drove us out of after

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<v Speaker 1>twenty years. So it's hard to win those wars if

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<v Speaker 1>you're an unpopular occupying force, and that's who. As we

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<v Speaker 1>think about round two that's about to begin, it'll be

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<v Speaker 1>back kind of war. It's gonna be nasty, it probably

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<v Speaker 1>will be prolonged. At some point, Putin may decide, as

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<v Speaker 1>as we did in Afghanistan, this simply is an warmed

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<v Speaker 1>the cost and choose an alternative path. But right now,

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<v Speaker 1>everybody body I talked to the Pentagon says he is

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<v Speaker 1>determined to give it in round to the hardest shot

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<v Speaker 1>he can. I know you are doing some writing, and

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<v Speaker 1>I heard you talking about this early on, about how

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<v Speaker 1>how into this story and in support of the Ukrainians

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<v Speaker 1>the Europeans have been and obviously I've seen that in

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<v Speaker 1>the United States. Do we have the the ability to

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<v Speaker 1>to to not lose our attention? You know, we go

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<v Speaker 1>from story to story to story pretty quickly. Um, are

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<v Speaker 1>we gonna be able to stay focused on this over

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<v Speaker 1>the timeline we're just describing, So that's the right question

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<v Speaker 1>to ask. America, I think is famously impatient in supporting allies.

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<v Speaker 1>In this case, it's the Ukrainians who are doing the fighting.

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<v Speaker 1>We have a supermotivated partner. We didn't have that in

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<v Speaker 1>that gas stand, but we sure do a Ukraine. They're

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<v Speaker 1>fighting with incredible bravery, tenacity, and we also have lots

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<v Speaker 1>of other allies. Ukraine is surrounded by European countries that

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<v Speaker 1>have really found their heart. The Germans other countries often

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<v Speaker 1>kind of sat on their hands when it came to

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<v Speaker 1>confrontations with Russia. Not here that they're they're stepping up there,

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<v Speaker 1>providing weapons, in some cases more aggressively than we are. Poland,

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<v Speaker 1>which neighbors Ukraine, sees itself as being a prospective future

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<v Speaker 1>target of Russia, is absolutely supporting the Ukrainians providing uh weapons, supplies,

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<v Speaker 1>safe haven for refugees were streaming out of Ukraine. But

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<v Speaker 1>that's that's true of many European countries. So I think

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<v Speaker 1>the staying power on the side of the West is significant.

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<v Speaker 1>And that's another thing that Putin has to fit. The

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<v Speaker 1>factor in he doesn't have who's allies Belarus and and

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<v Speaker 1>China sort of. The China China support has been lukewarm

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<v Speaker 1>at best, so Prudent faces a non attractive campaign as

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<v Speaker 1>he as he begins around two. But again he'll go

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<v Speaker 1>at it. I think initially what everything is David David Ignacious, Columnists,

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<v Speaker 1>Washington Post. I'm a big fan. Thanks for coming on today.

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<v Speaker 1>It's a pleasure. It's tough to talk about. It's good

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<v Speaker 1>to have the chance after about you bet, I'd say

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<v Speaker 1>it's tough to talk about, it's tough to watch, it's

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<v Speaker 1>tough to see the pictures. It's just it's I've said this, God,

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<v Speaker 1>how What have I said this a thousand times in

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<v Speaker 1>the last six weeks. I can't believe this is actually

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<v Speaker 1>occurring in my lifetime. Frequently on One More Thing podcast, Jack,

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<v Speaker 1>this is roughly the equivalent of carrying around two hundred

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<v Speaker 1>and twenty four slices of bacon in your body. Well wait,

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<v Speaker 1>wait a minute, regular, what bacon ways of measurement that

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<v Speaker 1>we all use? The Armstrong and Getting podcast cheer it

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<v Speaker 1>on the I heart app, wherever you listen to podcast