Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News.
Speaker 2: Welcome back to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance from
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 3: You're listening to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. I'm
Speaker 3: David Gerro with Tom Keen and Joe Matthew. Breaking news
Speaker 3: this afternoon. President Joe Biden abandoned his reelection bid, Biden
Speaker 3: saying he would serve out his term, but endorsed Vice
Speaker 3: President Kamala Harris to take his place as the Democratic nominee.
Speaker 4: Joining us now Bloomberg contributor Genie sheen Zano of Iona University. Genie,
Speaker 4: with this announcement, are the Purple States any less purple?
Speaker 5: I think they.
Speaker 6: Are more up for grabs for the Democrats.
Speaker 5: I think one of the big deciding factors we are
Speaker 5: hearing for President Biden was the fact that you saw
Speaker 5: states that should be reliably blue or somewhat rely on
Speaker 5: blee blue leg Minnesota, New Hampshire, You're talking about my
Speaker 5: home state of New York, New Jersey, that those were
Speaker 5: creeping into the red or as you said, the purple.
Speaker 5: And that is a big problem. And I think that's
Speaker 5: where he saw the writing on the wall. If Donald
Speaker 5: Trump expanded that battleground very very difficult for Joe Biden
Speaker 5: to win, hence his decision today.
Speaker 4: David Gern, Joe Matthew jump in here with Professor z Enough.
Speaker 3: Let me just ask you sort of what you see
Speaker 3: playing out here in the next twenty four hours. So,
Speaker 3: as I say, we had this very quick endorsement from
Speaker 3: the president, as Joe and Tom were talking about just
Speaker 3: a few minutes ago. The impulse here is to be
Speaker 3: to get the vice president on the road. She has
Speaker 3: been on the road, has been holding events and rallies.
Speaker 3: How do you see this week beginning? How do you
Speaker 3: see a gaining steam as it continues?
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean Kamala Harris two million dollars in Cape
Speaker 5: Cod yesterday. I think the thinking among many Democrats can't
Speaker 5: speak for all of them, is that this is a
Speaker 5: quick handover. We saw the endorsement. It is a Joe Biden.
Speaker 5: Kamala has campaign so that she is able to take
Speaker 5: over the campaign, the apparatus, the fundraising, which is tremendous
Speaker 5: and move forward. I think the big question hanging over
Speaker 5: everybody's head is is there going to be a contest?
Speaker 5: I am skeptical that we will see a contest at
Speaker 5: this point, particularly given how quickly President Biden endorsed her,
Speaker 5: but it is still a possibility. The other thing is,
Speaker 5: and the lawyers know this better than I do, is
Speaker 5: that there may be some contest in terms of can
Speaker 5: she take over this campaign apparatus. I'm describing it as
Speaker 5: a Biden Harris campaign. It is, but there may be
Speaker 5: legal challenges to that. If there's not, she'll take that over,
Speaker 5: and then I think it's harder for us to see
Speaker 5: a contest. And then the big question is going to
Speaker 5: be what do the delegates do, of course, and who
Speaker 5: does she choose as her vice presidential running mate?
Speaker 4: At this point, Ge, now I want to go to
Speaker 4: your wheelhouse, which is the shades of the Democratic Party
Speaker 4: in nineteen fifty two. You know what, there were shades
Speaker 4: of a Democratic Party. They were all the same. The
Speaker 4: difference from Stevenson the SSE's key fower, come on, it
Speaker 4: was next to nothing. It was just geographic. It was regional.
Speaker 4: Somebody had a pet project in that. We have huge
Speaker 4: polarity in the Democratic Party right now. Is the vice
Speaker 4: president a progressive?
Speaker 5: I am not sure that she will choose in that way.
Speaker 5: You know, the reality is as a political scientist that
Speaker 5: vice presidential choices in all of our research seldom make
Speaker 5: any difference whatsoever. That said, this is an astounding situation,
Speaker 5: unprecedented in the modern era, so it likely could. And
Speaker 5: I think for Kamala Harris as she thinks about her choices,
Speaker 5: you know, we are hearing about the tremendous number of
Speaker 5: really attractive young Democratic governors across the country, from Shapiro
Speaker 5: to Indy Bashir to down in North Carolina to J. D.
Speaker 5: Pritzker in Illinois. It's a large, large number. I'm excluding
Speaker 5: Newsome only because he has the same problem Marco Rubio
Speaker 5: did for Trump in her home state. But that said,
Speaker 5: there's also been a lot of talk about somebody like
Speaker 5: Senator Kelly out in Arizona. If I had to guess,
Speaker 5: I think she is going to choose a geographic match
Speaker 5: rather and somebody who she personally can work with, obviously,
Speaker 5: and who she thinks could be president if something should
Speaker 5: happen to her, as opposed to think about the ideological
Speaker 5: split in the Democratic Party. And the only reason I
Speaker 5: say that is because you're right, there is that difference
Speaker 5: in the party, but one thing that unites all Democrats,
Speaker 5: right now is beating Donald Trump. That's at the forefront
Speaker 5: of all of their minds. Okay, and that's why I
Speaker 5: think she doesn't go progressive.
Speaker 4: Beautifully, said David Gerra. Terry Ames has said this and
Speaker 4: many others. Well, we're desperate for polls like we've never
Speaker 4: been in our modern political history, Bason. Your experience, David Gurra,
Speaker 4: when does our Audi medians get polls that begin to
Speaker 4: color the strength that the vice president has or the
Speaker 4: strength other candidates have.
Speaker 3: It'll be some days until we get enough of them
Speaker 3: that we can have some confidence in them. But we
Speaker 3: know from our reporting and from others reporting that the
Speaker 3: Democratic Party was polling the viability of Kamala Harris as
Speaker 3: a presidential nominee in the days leading up to this.
Speaker 3: We know that in this vacuum that the president was
Speaker 3: in trying to figure this out, this was one of
Speaker 3: his concerns and the party's concerns how this would work.
Speaker 3: And so we have had some polling thus far that
Speaker 3: illustrates what that matchup might be like with Donald Trump,
Speaker 3: and we've seen her hold her own in those polls.
Speaker 3: But to answer your question more thoroughly, Tom, I think
Speaker 3: until we get a more robust set of pulling on
Speaker 3: this is going to take a few days until we
Speaker 3: figure that out. And I'm just going to note here
Speaker 3: the kind of endorsements and comments on this continue to roll,
Speaker 3: and we have a comment now from President Clinton former
Speaker 3: Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. They're issuing a joint statement
Speaker 3: here about Kamala Harris. It begins with a preamble of
Speaker 3: them thanking Joe Biden for the service that he's had
Speaker 3: to the country in this role, most recently but throughout
Speaker 3: his long career. Then they say, we are honor to
Speaker 3: join the president in endorsing Vice President Harris, and we'll
Speaker 3: do whatever we can to support her. GENI, I'm curious
Speaker 3: how well Americans know Kamala Harris. You mentioned how insignificant
Speaker 3: the role of the vice president might be historically, how
Speaker 3: little a difference that might make. But she has name
Speaker 3: recognition and that's something here. But how much do most
Speaker 3: people know about her? And her record is Attorney general
Speaker 3: in California and indeeds are of what makes her tick?
Speaker 3: What are the policy agenda items that are most important
Speaker 3: to her?
Speaker 7: You know?
Speaker 5: I think on the plus side, Kamala Harris has really
Speaker 5: done a very strong job of going out and talking
Speaker 5: about women's health, pushing back on the Dobbs decision. They're
Speaker 5: right for people. I shouldn't just say women to do
Speaker 5: what they want with their own bodies, and that has
Speaker 5: been something I think many Americans now associate with her.
Speaker 5: That said, to your point, While she did run in
Speaker 5: twenty twenty, she was a you know, one term senator
Speaker 5: from California, previously a state attorney general, so well known
Speaker 5: in that state. Not quite as much across the country, though,
Speaker 5: as the first African American woman and Indian American woman
Speaker 5: to achieve the vice presidency, she did get a lot
Speaker 5: of coverage in the announcement of her choice. On the downside,
Speaker 5: she was flagged with the border issue for a long
Speaker 5: time and that has really drawn down people's concerns about
Speaker 5: her ability to do this job. So there's some mixed reaction,
Speaker 5: but she is going to have to go out and
Speaker 5: sort of come out from Joe Biden's shadow, if you will.
Speaker 5: One thing I would note, and I think to her credit,
Speaker 5: throughout all of these last three weeks, she has been
Speaker 5: on the campaign trail pushing hard for Joe Biden, and
Speaker 5: her people were very clear she is not going to
Speaker 5: get involved in this race to see who should feed him,
Speaker 5: and so that is on the plus side for her.
Speaker 4: I look at where we are and folks who want
Speaker 4: to draw in here not only the expected statements by worthies,
Speaker 4: by Democrats, by Republicans, but across all and take advantage
Speaker 4: of the social media at this historic moment. Tim albert
Speaker 4: is at the Atlantic and he's really done studies, careful
Speaker 4: studies of evangelical America, just among other things. And Geenie,
Speaker 4: here's where Tim Alberta comes out really right now. Really
Speaker 4: cannot overstate how problematic this is for Trump's operation. Why
Speaker 4: is that what radically change changes for the campaign apparatus
Speaker 4: of the former president on this Sunday afternoon.
Speaker 5: And Tim who just wrote a beautiful piece on Trump's
Speaker 5: two campaign managers, and that's what I think he is
Speaker 5: alluding to. It was very clear and that really well
Speaker 5: done piece about Chris Lasavitas and Susie Wilds that their
Speaker 5: entire campaign wh was shaped by going against Joe Biden
Speaker 5: to have this switch at the last minute after their convention,
Speaker 5: which is the most coverage argued, we will believe Donald
Speaker 5: Trump is going to get until if there is another
Speaker 5: debate with a new candidate, they have to shift their
Speaker 5: entire focus. So the uncertainty we're talking about for the
Speaker 5: Democrats is also true on the Republican side. And that's
Speaker 5: what I think he's pouting to. They've got to quickly
Speaker 5: shift their focus now to Carris or somebody else, because
Speaker 5: she is not the nominee.
Speaker 4: Jenny, thank you so much. Through the afternoon, Genie, Professor
Speaker 4: Zana will be with us. She's at Iona University, Jennie,
Speaker 4: She and Zano. A number of others are looking at this,
Speaker 4: and one of them is the difference between Ger and
Speaker 4: I were lazy. You know, we do things, We do
Speaker 4: the big take, we do podcasts, we stroll in, we
Speaker 4: go to lunch. Laura Davidson never goes to lunch. She
Speaker 4: is the journalist in Washington covering these tensions, and we're
Speaker 4: thrilled that she could join us. Now, Laura, I want
Speaker 4: you to look forward. There are editors across all of
Speaker 4: our major newspapers, all of our magazines saying I need
Speaker 4: something Tuesday or wind Day morning. What is the distinction,
Speaker 4: Laura Davidson, that you would write about for Tuesday or
Speaker 4: Wednesday morning?
Speaker 7: So the next steps are not clear.
Speaker 8: Biden has endorsed Harris, and presumably that means many of
Speaker 8: his delegates will back Harris. But the big unknown is
Speaker 8: will someone else jump into the race. Democratic rules don't
Speaker 8: Party rules don't require that Biden's delegates back Harris. So,
Speaker 8: you know, California Governor Gavin Newsom, Michigan governed Gretchen Whitmer,
Speaker 8: they want to jump in the race. Suddenly, we could
Speaker 8: have a contested convention on our hands. There's a couple,
Speaker 8: you know, things that are that are totally uncertain here.
Speaker 8: You know, the biggest question is just, you know, where
Speaker 8: do those camps start to fall in line. We're already
Speaker 8: seeing a lot of lawmakers come out and endorsing Kamala Harris.
Speaker 7: She also has an advantage because she can inherit the
Speaker 7: money and the Biden campaign. A new candidate would not
Speaker 7: be able to inherit that money. It would have to
Speaker 7: start from scratch.
Speaker 8: The other thing that's also on everyone's mind too, is
Speaker 8: from a from a global perspective, you know, what does
Speaker 8: this mean for foreign leaders and particularly for adversaries. You know,
Speaker 8: is there some some sort of new, fresh national security
Speaker 8: threat that could be injected into the atmosphere, you know,
Speaker 8: with sort of this period of uncertainty around who might
Speaker 8: be in charge of the Democratic Party going.
Speaker 3: Forward, Laura, what is the way that we've seen Kamala
Speaker 3: Harris being used over these last couple of weeks tell
Speaker 3: you about the path forward? She has been out campaigning. Obviously,
Speaker 3: she's been rather quiet on this issue, but she held
Speaker 3: a very important call with donors on Friday of this week,
Speaker 3: trying to assuage many of their concerns about the prospects
Speaker 3: of this happening as Joe Biden was figuring all of
Speaker 3: this out. Any insight that you can glean just from
Speaker 3: the way that she has been acting or the Democratic
Speaker 3: Party in the campaign have been using her in recent
Speaker 3: days that might foretell what she's going to be like,
Speaker 3: how she's going to approach the campaign going forward.
Speaker 9: You know.
Speaker 8: In addition to that call of donors, we've also seen
Speaker 8: her just more front and center in advertising and you know,
Speaker 8: fundraising appeals that have gone out.
Speaker 7: Via email on social ads.
Speaker 8: She's also been hitting the campaign trail very hard, so
Speaker 8: you can kind of see there was a you know,
Speaker 8: a very quiet ramp up, you know, in case this,
Speaker 8: you know, was the situation that we now find ourselves in.
Speaker 8: What's different about her is she has been very different
Speaker 8: on the campaign trail than Biden. Biden has really focused
Speaker 8: on those blue wall states Michigan and Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.
Speaker 7: She has more focused on some of the southern.
Speaker 8: States, you know, Arizona, Nevada, and the messages that they
Speaker 8: carry are very different. Biden was focused on, you know,
Speaker 8: the economy and jobs on reunion workers. Harris has been
Speaker 8: much more about abortion, that being an issue that she's
Speaker 8: very comfortable talking with and that Biden isn't.
Speaker 7: So there will be sort of a reformulation of you.
Speaker 8: Know how uh, you know, of how Harris tries to
Speaker 8: position herself if she is in fact the nominee and
Speaker 8: of course, you know, if you know all of the
Speaker 8: people who might want to be her running mate, you
Speaker 8: know that's going to be something that party leaders and
Speaker 8: in you delegates are going to be looking at what
Speaker 8: balances her out.
Speaker 7: You know, do you go to someone like Josh Shapiro as.
Speaker 8: A governor of Pennsylvania, they might appeal to to more
Speaker 8: of those blue wall states.
Speaker 7: All of this, you know, parlor parlor talks.
Speaker 8: You know, what's happened now and what's happening on the old.
Speaker 4: Lord Davison, Thank you so much for being saustine as
Speaker 4: I hope you wake you up tomorrow morning at seven am.
Speaker 3: You're listening to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. I'm
Speaker 3: David Gurrow with Tom Keen and Joe Matthew. Plenty ahead,
Speaker 3: This is Bloombak.
Speaker 2: Welcome back to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance from
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 3: You're listening to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. I'm
Speaker 3: David Gerrow with Tom Keen and Joe Matthew. Breaking news
Speaker 3: this afternoon, President Joe Biden abandoned his reelection bid, Biden
Speaker 3: saying he would serve out his term, but endorsed Vice
Speaker 3: President Kamala Harris to take his place as the Democratic nominee.
Speaker 4: What we're looking for is conversation with people with experience
Speaker 4: and maybe without an angle. And that is absolute definition
Speaker 4: of Wendy Benjamin to say she's deputy Managing editor, it's
Speaker 4: a big long title. She wouldn't come to Bloomberg unless
Speaker 4: it was a big long title. But she was definitive
Speaker 4: at the Associated Press with McClatchy and USA Today is well,
Speaker 4: it's a new media today. You lived the old media.
Speaker 4: LBJ didn't have to put up with this. Truman didn't
Speaker 4: have to put up with this. Let's look forward. How
Speaker 4: do these people position themselves given modern media?
Speaker 1: Well, hi Tom, and thank you for always bringing up
Speaker 1: how long.
Speaker 6: I've been in.
Speaker 4: Trying to do it.
Speaker 1: It's all about the history today, But I will tell
Speaker 1: you it is. It is a tricky rott, a hope
Speaker 1: for the other Democrats who might who might join the
Speaker 1: race this Today they are all over ex posting how
Speaker 1: grateful they are to the president, without a single word
Speaker 1: about themselves. I think they are all eagerly watching the
Speaker 1: process of what will happen next, whether Kamala Harris does
Speaker 1: become the nominee by fate or by or there will
Speaker 1: be this open process to to choose another nominee, at
Speaker 1: which point these people will definitely start changing their posts
Speaker 1: on Twitter to be more forward looking. But today is
Speaker 1: sort of one of those days where you just focus
Speaker 1: on Biden and whether he did, and don't worry about
Speaker 1: your ambitions for at least publicly for a few.
Speaker 3: Minutes, Wendy Benjamins, and we'll marinate in that for you know,
Speaker 3: twenty four hours, whatever minutes.
Speaker 4: So she when she first came to Washington, she was
Speaker 4: in the octagon bar Willard. Yes, it was the same thing.
Speaker 4: Everything was, you know, we'll think about for a day
Speaker 4: or two, but it was a few minutes. Wendy.
Speaker 3: Nice to speak with you. And I'm curious sort of
Speaker 3: how long it takes for the contours of this campaign
Speaker 3: to change. I was talking with some senior Democrats who
Speaker 3: said their major frustration has been Donald Trump has been
Speaker 3: out campaigning. He's been lying as they saw it, He's
Speaker 3: been lying as we've we've reported. They need a Democrat
Speaker 3: who can push back on that and debate him formally
Speaker 3: in the context of the campaign. They hope on a
Speaker 3: debate stage as well. I'm sure that they see Kamala
Speaker 3: Harris is somebody very capable of doing that. How long
Speaker 3: until we see the contours and the sort of flavor
Speaker 3: and character of this campaign start to change. I guess
Speaker 3: what I'm asking is how long are we going to
Speaker 3: merit it on this the praise for Joe Biden before
Speaker 3: we move on to what is a reset of this
Speaker 3: Democratic campaign?
Speaker 1: Seriously, David, I would start an egg timer right now.
Speaker 1: I think, you know, as we all come back to
Speaker 1: our desk in the office tomorrow, this will already start changing.
Speaker 1: There is no time left. There is no time to
Speaker 1: you know, spend a lot of time thinking about how
Speaker 1: great if you believe that that Joe Biden was, and
Speaker 1: how to move forward. There is only time to get
Speaker 1: this done. The Democratic Convention is in less than a
Speaker 1: month and they have to have a nominee. They also
Speaker 1: were going to virtually nominate Joe Biden's When I say
Speaker 1: virtually mean by phone because the ballot access laws, the
Speaker 1: ballots will be printed in Ohio before the Democratic Convention.
Speaker 1: Ohio a major state that you you know, a lot
Speaker 1: of electoral votes that you have to be on the
Speaker 1: ballot for. So I think there will be tomorrow morning.
Speaker 1: I mean Jamie Harris and the d n C chair
Speaker 1: has already put out a safe in saying we're going
Speaker 1: to start the process now figuring out how to do this.
Speaker 1: Remember this is unprecedented, LBJ who I was a child when.
Speaker 10: He did you hear that?
Speaker 4: Tom Yes, Remember he dropped out in March.
Speaker 1: There was still plenty of time to, you know, to
Speaker 1: have primaries with other candidates. I think Iowa and New
Speaker 1: Hampshire were the only states who had voted by them.
Speaker 1: So you know, this is we're just not in that situation.
Speaker 1: We have to have to get to work right away.
Speaker 4: I want to go to the heart of the matter,
Speaker 4: to the both you and this is something I've quoted,
Speaker 4: but I rarely put up the numbers. I'm not going
Speaker 4: to give you the digits. It's just too much to
Speaker 4: contemplate right now. President Trump garnered seventy four million votes
Speaker 4: the last time around the time before that, when he won,
Speaker 4: he garnered sixty five million votes. Basically, he garnered eight
Speaker 4: million votes losing in twenty twenty. David, let me go
Speaker 4: to you first in Pennsylvania. Who has to show up
Speaker 4: now for the Democratic nominee who was not going to
Speaker 4: show up on Saturday for President Biden.
Speaker 3: Well, Pennsylvania's a particularly interesting question. I mean, they need
Speaker 3: everybody to show up, obviously, and you're going to hear
Speaker 3: that in the coming days and weeks. But you know,
Speaker 3: they're going to be appealing to people who might have
Speaker 3: felt disillusioned by the way all of this was unfolding,
Speaker 3: might have felt like, you know, looking at a contrast
Speaker 3: there that we saw in the debate station Atlanta was
Speaker 3: dispeariting them. Made them feel like the Democrats didn't have
Speaker 3: a viable alternative to Republican nominee. We're going to see
Speaker 3: a big ground game trying to get everybody to the polls. Tom,
Speaker 3: But you know it's funny. We'll talk to Joe Matthew
Speaker 3: in a few moments. Here is somebody that he mentioned
Speaker 3: on the heels of that Republican National Convention is Roy Cooper,
Speaker 3: the gup of my home state of North Carolinas, somebody
Speaker 3: who's seen as maybe somebody who might be in the
Speaker 3: fold here as well. Picking up on what you're saying
Speaker 3: what Wendy said as well, I think geography matters a
Speaker 3: ton of here, And Wendy, I'd love for you to
Speaker 3: come in and just give me your read on that.
Speaker 3: There's Pennsylvania, there's North Carolina. What are the other estates
Speaker 3: or geographies in this country that are going to be
Speaker 3: of just paramount importance here to Democrats going forward.
Speaker 1: Well, the first one that leads to mind, David is Michigan,
Speaker 1: where Gretchen Whitmer, a very popular Democrat, is governor, two
Speaker 1: term governor, very popular. There's no question she is going
Speaker 1: to run for president someday. I don't think and so
Speaker 1: I think, you know, if they're looking for alternatives beyond Kamala,
Speaker 1: Harris and Gretchen Whitmer becomes a big deal. So is
Speaker 1: Joshapiro in Pennsylvania. You know North Carolina. Yeah, North Carolina
Speaker 1: is one of those states that kind of goes back
Speaker 1: and forth. It tends to be conservative. I don't know
Speaker 1: how it might be good to bring in Hammer and
Speaker 1: Andy Basheer of Kentucky or someone like that too.
Speaker 4: Wendy, I had a crossow thrown at me my head
Speaker 4: this morning at breakfast, and I'm going to bring it
Speaker 4: up with you because with no with great respect, Wendy,
Speaker 4: you're the one to answer this question. Now. You just
Speaker 4: mentioned Harris Whitmer is a potential ticket. Is there any
Speaker 4: evidence across the United States of America day today that
Speaker 4: we can elect Anglo Miracle or Teresa May of the
Speaker 4: United Kingdom? Is there any real evidence America is ready
Speaker 4: to elect a woman?
Speaker 1: That's you know, I'm sighing because that's a very difficult question.
Speaker 1: There's certainly no practical reason we shouldn't see we're one
Speaker 1: of the last major countries on Earth not to have
Speaker 1: a female head of state. You know, I certainly think
Speaker 1: it's time for that. And I can't think of a
Speaker 1: reason why we wouldn't elect a woman. Maybe a double
Speaker 1: female ticket might be a little much for America. Crazy
Speaker 1: as that said, since we've elected so many double mail
Speaker 1: tickets in our history. But you know, but I do
Speaker 1: think if the Democrats all right, Mark, it would be
Speaker 1: more like a Harris Super Harris Asher, Harris Shapiro.
Speaker 3: Wanty Benjaminson not I have thrown a virtual croissant at
Speaker 3: you from DC, but she did.
Speaker 4: She said, that's what my expense account has is virtual croissants.
Speaker 4: What I am in Washington, d C. Saying it will
Speaker 4: be a long night for your leading our coverage in Washington.
Speaker 4: Wendy Benjamin, she is the queen of print. Thank you
Speaker 4: so much, Wendy for joining us today. We welcome all
Speaker 4: of you across Bloomberg Television, Bloomberg Radio on YouTube. We're
Speaker 4: making light of it on a Sunday afternoon, but it
Speaker 4: is the most serious point for the nation. It is
Speaker 4: a democratic party, without question, in chaos, the transition from
Speaker 4: an eighty one year old president, he endorses his vice president.
Speaker 4: David's going to cover that in a moment, and some
Speaker 4: of the news flow here we welcome all to you,
Speaker 4: David Gerra and Tom Keen in Washington. Joe you to
Speaker 4: partake here in a moment, and Kaylen Lines is getting
Speaker 4: ready again for the television broadcast this evening. We hope
Speaker 4: to have her on as our schedule allows. Many other
Speaker 4: good people with conversation is well. Thank you for the
Speaker 4: comments out on Twitter, on YouTube and live chat as well.
Speaker 4: David Gera, it was a two step process. The shock,
Speaker 4: which I did not expect on a Sunday afternoon. I
Speaker 4: kept waiting for an LBJ Oval Office moment didn't happen,
Speaker 4: and then the endorsement of the Vice president.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it was a very funny interregnum. So let's start
Speaker 3: with the announcement itself. As you say, you know, I
Speaker 3: was waiting over the course of the weekend for that
Speaker 3: announcement to come out from the White House. You know,
Speaker 3: perhaps there'll be an Oval office speech. As you say,
Speaker 3: I think. I think we might still get that later
Speaker 3: this week. In his letter to the American people, the
Speaker 3: President saying that in the coming days he'll say more
Speaker 3: about his decision to do this. I think yet we
Speaker 3: will get that kind of formal moment for him to
Speaker 3: spell all of this out the way that he wants to.
Speaker 3: But reading that letter one page in length, just a
Speaker 3: few paragraphs, there was no mention of Kamala Harra Joe
Speaker 3: Biden's vice president. Then a few minutes past, a few
Speaker 3: more minutes passed and we got his full throat endorsement
Speaker 3: yes via X of Kamala Harris. He's going to support
Speaker 3: her in the campaign for president. Now we're beginning to
Speaker 3: piece together a how many Democrats come on board with that.
Speaker 3: It seems like in the last hour and a half
Speaker 3: or so many of them have Many prominent Democrats, gray beards,
Speaker 3: younger members of Congress, those who have been rather quiet
Speaker 3: during the course of this as they've waited for this
Speaker 3: to get hammered out by the President who has been
Speaker 3: at his home in Rohobe with be Beach, Delaware, kind
Speaker 3: of figuring all of this out. Thinking through all of this,
Speaker 3: we've heard from them. We'll see how much more that coalesces.
Speaker 3: And then we'll see, as we've been talking about, what
Speaker 3: other interests there may or may not be from other
Speaker 3: people in the Democratic Party to run, and then who
Speaker 3: Kamala Harris, if she is the nomine would pick for
Speaker 3: her vice presidential running mate.
Speaker 4: And now folks, we will digress, and again we welcome
Speaker 4: all of you to the shock of this news. The
Speaker 4: path forward for the nation, the path forward for the
Speaker 4: Democratic Party, and the pathword only Joe Matthew knows how
Speaker 4: big a piggy ban President Biden has. We're still working on, Joe.
Speaker 4: I see, Oh, let me go to you on this aid. Yeah.
Speaker 3: No, it is a sizeable pigure. It's over one hundred,
Speaker 3: over two hundred and fifty two hundred forty million dollars,
Speaker 3: so a little bit behind Donald Trump, but many, many
Speaker 3: millions of dollars. And as we heard from Lord Davison
Speaker 3: just a moment ago, Kamala Harris has been on the
Speaker 3: campaign trill during this uncomfortable period, raising a lot of money.
Speaker 3: She's on Cape cod presently where she raised two million
Speaker 3: dollars at this most recent fundraiser. So they have been
Speaker 3: out there beating the bushes, trying to get money from donors.
Speaker 3: And as I say that, I have to acknowledge the
Speaker 3: fact that as all of this unfolded, there was concern
Speaker 3: among rank and file Democrats. There was, as we saw,
Speaker 3: concern among members of the House, forty plus of them
Speaker 3: coming out suggesting that Joe Biden should do this members
Speaker 3: of the Senate as well, but also from donors. You know,
Speaker 3: what we've heard is that the chief fundraisers for the
Speaker 3: bind reelection campaign have been fielding all kinds of questions
Speaker 3: from their donors. Jeffre Katzenberg chief among them. He the
Speaker 3: main fundraiser. This was something that they were agitating or
Speaker 3: having to deal with as well.
Speaker 4: For mere mortals. David, you're used to this, Joe Matthews
Speaker 4: used to this as well. For me. The idea of
Speaker 4: you know, X millions of dollars, it's sitting in a bank,
Speaker 4: They're going to spend it evenly and rapidly, ads and
Speaker 4: all the rest of the apparatus, and that the vice
Speaker 4: president can pick up that slug of money. Correct she can?
Speaker 3: They are adamant that she can.
Speaker 4: And what can Governor Shapiro Pennsylvania do. Sell a bottle
Speaker 4: of yengling and try to get through What's he do?
Speaker 3: They would have to sell many trucks of yongling to
Speaker 3: catch up. But this has been what those who have
Speaker 3: supported Kamala Harris being the nominee have said all along
Speaker 3: is this is the Biden Harris campaign. Her name is
Speaker 3: on the ticket. She's helped raise this fire. She could
Speaker 3: get that money and others couldn't, and that has been
Speaker 3: one of the principal reasons why they've said in this
Speaker 3: period when there's been a lot of haggling, she's the
Speaker 3: clear choice because she has access to it. Look, you know, well, Tom,
Speaker 3: these campaigns are expensive campaigns cost many millions of dollars.
Speaker 3: To not have that and to start with what you know,
Speaker 3: many weeks to go into the election would be incredibly dis.
Speaker 4: Is it August tenth of Chicago, Pittsburgh?
Speaker 3: That might be Jackson Hole, but it's a busy I
Speaker 3: can't keep track of it. You're listening to a special
Speaker 3: edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. I'm David Gurrow with Tom Keen
Speaker 3: and Joe Matthew.
Speaker 6: Plenty ahead, This is Bloomberg.
Speaker 2: Welcome back to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance from
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 3: You're listening to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. I'm
Speaker 3: David Gerrow with Tom Keen and Joe Matthew. Breaking news
Speaker 3: this afternoon, President Joe Biden abandoned his re election bid,
Speaker 3: Biden saying he would serve out his term, but endorsed
Speaker 3: Vice President Kamala Harris to take his place as the
Speaker 3: Democratic nominee.
Speaker 4: We're here at this very historic moment for the country,
Speaker 4: and we welcome all of you, and we really appreciate
Speaker 4: our guests for the effort that they've made. This guest
Speaker 4: has said the single most important thing I've heard from
Speaker 4: that horrific debate for President Biden, Terry Haynes appee has said, Tom,
Speaker 4: all that matters are the polls. Mister Haynes joins us. Now.
Speaker 4: I can't say enough about following him on LinkedIn for
Speaker 4: intelligent summaries. Whatever your political persuasion, Terry Haynes, do you
Speaker 4: have polls? And when do you and the vice president
Speaker 4: get them?
Speaker 9: Just you know, there's a bunch of folks pinging me
Speaker 9: and pelting me right now saying you realize, of course
Speaker 9: Harris polls worse than Biden. There's some evidence to that effect.
Speaker 9: There's also some evidence that they pull better. My advice
Speaker 9: all along has been, you know, ignore the ignore the
Speaker 9: green eye shade stuff. You're you're you know, you're now
Speaker 9: from from Washington political technicians who love talking about this
Speaker 9: stuff and how you can dial it up or dial
Speaker 9: it down, Harris is going to be in uncharted waters
Speaker 9: if indeed it is Harris, and I imagine that the
Speaker 9: energy that comes from this campaign and Democrats rallying around her,
Speaker 9: you know, really give Democrats a big shot in the
Speaker 9: arm here and on poles. Last thing I would say
Speaker 9: is the two way national average two day before Biden
Speaker 9: dropped out was Trump up by three, with a bunch
Speaker 9: of polls that have margins of error that are bigger
Speaker 9: than that. So you know, Harris is not far off
Speaker 9: the scent here. And my immediate prediction is she probably
Speaker 9: gets a little stronger.
Speaker 3: Talk about that strength if you would, Terry, It's great
Speaker 3: to speak with you as always, And I've had a
Speaker 3: lot of people say to me, look, Kamala Harris hasn't
Speaker 3: been able to campaign as much as she might like to,
Speaker 3: might not have as big a policy portfolio as she
Speaker 3: wants to, in part because of the relationship that she
Speaker 3: has with the president, in part because they don't want
Speaker 3: her to be outfront. They want to be out front.
Speaker 3: So that wall drops she's able to get out there.
Speaker 3: What are we likely to see from her? I mean,
Speaker 3: I've watched her at some events recently. She is a
Speaker 3: powerful speaker, she's able, she's very facile with everything that's
Speaker 3: in her portfolio and more, what do you expect her
Speaker 3: on the campaign trail to look like?
Speaker 4: Now?
Speaker 9: My advice all along has been I wrote a piece
Speaker 9: about this back in February at one point, I believe
Speaker 9: it or not, about how you know you basically underestimate
Speaker 9: Harris at your peril. It's very fashionable in Washington to
Speaker 9: walk around and say, well, you know, she doesn't speak
Speaker 9: so well. And there's plenty of examples of that, and
Speaker 9: you'll still now see them all in campaign advertisements in
Speaker 9: the next four months. But you know where she's really strong.
Speaker 9: She's really strong, and it's a and it dovetails very
Speaker 9: nicely into the Democratic message, which is on all on
Speaker 9: all the social issues that are the core of the
Speaker 9: core of the Democratic message. And I would expect her
Speaker 9: to hammer away at that. And that is a powerful
Speaker 9: message not only to Democratic base, but it's an enticing
Speaker 9: message to a lot of independent voters as well. One
Speaker 9: thing that the Democrats have to do in order to
Speaker 9: win is to keep but excuse me, keep Trump underwater
Speaker 9: within the endants and Harris. Harris being a hugely forceful
Speaker 9: advocate on social issues of all kinds. And you know,
Speaker 9: it is something I think you'll just you'll see them
Speaker 9: be relentless.
Speaker 4: At I once flunk to test Terry Haynes on vice
Speaker 4: presidential history. I couldn't name any of them. And there's
Speaker 4: this heritage back to eighteen oh two or whatever that
Speaker 4: they're just vice presidents and they'll be Okay, to the
Speaker 4: point you made with David Gerrow moments ago, do we
Speaker 4: really know who the prosecutor from California is?
Speaker 5: No?
Speaker 9: I don't think we do.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I agree, she thinks she's.
Speaker 9: Had very much a meteoric rise, and but you know,
Speaker 9: you haven't seen her out there on her own, really shining.
Speaker 9: And she's never been in a contested election before really
Speaker 9: other than her first one where she barely won. But
Speaker 9: you know, California being the you know, among the bluest
Speaker 9: of blue states, this is a very different this is
Speaker 9: a very different arena.
Speaker 3: It's a it's a very different arena. And you know,
Speaker 3: if I could, I'd love for you to take a
Speaker 3: step at the question that Tom asked me so I
Speaker 3: can answer with some authority the next time he asked me,
Speaker 3: but who is she? Who is she looking for? We
Speaker 3: know what the process is going to be like. She's
Speaker 3: going to meet with all of these folks whose names
Speaker 3: we've seen floated in recent days. See who she gets
Speaker 3: along with, Who might bring what to the ticket? What's yours?
Speaker 3: If you had to game that out, if if you
Speaker 3: had to look at the pluses and minuses of what
Speaker 3: each offers. Who does she need to pick? What type
Speaker 3: of running mate does she need to pick?
Speaker 9: She needs a centrist swing state governor? Would be my
Speaker 9: is my instinct.
Speaker 4: So you're in Philadelphia. I think they've won sixty games
Speaker 4: so far this year. The Phillies are just killing the
Speaker 4: Terry Haynes, you're in Philadelphia.
Speaker 9: My Pittsburgh Pirates to beat them Friday night and Saturday night, so.
Speaker 3: They're in their surveillance correction here on Sunday.
Speaker 4: And their stadium is far their ball field is far
Speaker 4: more elegant than in Philadelphia. In Philadelphia, Terry Hayes, you
Speaker 4: got to go out in the suburbs and I get
Speaker 4: that there's an issue that's demonstrably proven, abortion and changes votes.
Speaker 4: What's the next issue after that? For a nominee such
Speaker 4: as Mazaris.
Speaker 9: I think what you have to do is you you
Speaker 9: really have to goose the uh you really have to
Speaker 9: goose the urban votes. So it's going to be uh,
Speaker 9: civil rights issues attacked from the Supreme Court. Uh, you know,
Speaker 9: all those sorts of things.
Speaker 4: Uh.
Speaker 9: And and you and you have to be you have
Speaker 9: to be nuanced. You have to be firm but nuanced
Speaker 9: on on immigration because uh, in order to attract Hispanic
Speaker 9: voters back. Uh, you know, there's uh, you know, we're
Speaker 9: we're not that far away from uh, you know, the
Speaker 9: old style machine politics. But there will still be efforts
Speaker 9: to to goose that turnout. But what gets people going
Speaker 9: uh will be uh, you know, will be abortion, will
Speaker 9: be social programs, will be kind of the traditional democratic
Speaker 9: uh uh programs combined with the strong thought that what
Speaker 9: Trump and the Republicans want to do is get rid
Speaker 9: of all that stuff.
Speaker 3: Let me ask you about how Democrats capitalize on the
Speaker 3: timing of this. And I mean I could look back
Speaker 3: and I could say, look, if this had happened during
Speaker 3: the course of the RNC, just think about what that
Speaker 3: final night would have been like with Donald Trump speaking,
Speaker 3: if Joe Biden had issued this letter, now that he
Speaker 3: didn't do this Vietnaval Office address, he could have sent
Speaker 3: this letter out on Thursday.
Speaker 4: Wow, that would have.
Speaker 3: Upended all of the coverage that this had gotten, that
Speaker 3: speech had gotten. All right, we're moving past that. We
Speaker 3: get this letter on a Sunday. How do Democrats seize
Speaker 3: the spotlight and the narrative going forward? Here you have
Speaker 3: the former president weighing in that, you know, suggesting that
Speaker 3: Joe Biden should just step aside from his position entirely. Now,
Speaker 3: what did Democrats need to do to reclaim the narrative?
Speaker 9: Well, firstly, they need to call lesser on Harris. And
Speaker 9: I'm not sure the extent. I mean, this obviously just happened,
Speaker 9: but I'm not sure of the degree that they that
Speaker 9: they want to. I thought Biden's I thought Biden initially
Speaker 9: not endorsing her, and then ten minutes later somebody pointing
Speaker 9: out to him that, you know, you need to go
Speaker 9: endorse her. Uh said volumes about the disarray not only
Speaker 9: in Biden world but among Democrats. Now that said, if
Speaker 9: I was Harris, I'd be I'd be out there this
Speaker 9: afternoon acting like I was the nominee and uh, you know,
Speaker 9: and I'd be going down to uh, you know, the
Speaker 9: Biden campaign head quarters kicking some rear ends too, But
Speaker 9: the sooner that she acts as as the presumptive nominee,
Speaker 9: the better for her.
Speaker 4: First this is critical. Terry unfortunately got one minute left.
Speaker 4: How will we how WI How will she be greeted
Speaker 4: by loyal Biden operatives.
Speaker 9: She'll be greeted with publicly with rapture and privately hugs
Speaker 9: and kisses. But privately they'll feel like, I mean, she
Speaker 9: wasn't part of the part of the coup, but they'll
Speaker 9: they'll feel abashed that their their their guy isn't there anymore.
Speaker 4: I got to leave it there. I look forward to
Speaker 4: your LinkedIn summaries that you do there just really really exquisite.
Speaker 4: Terry Haynes with Pangaea, a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance,
Speaker 4: and we say good morning and good afternoon to all
Speaker 4: of you. Good morning of course in Asia, waking up
Speaker 4: very early in the morning to the news that the
Speaker 4: President of the United States will step aside and he
Speaker 4: will not seek a second term. And of course the
Speaker 4: operative idea here is it is late in the cycle.
Speaker 4: He endorses the vice president from California, Kamala Harris, David
Speaker 4: Gerr and Tom Keane with you in New York will
Speaker 4: have any number of guests in this hour stay with
Speaker 4: our special broadcast from five to seven that will be
Speaker 4: on Bloomberg Television. We welcome all of you on television
Speaker 4: on radio across this nation as well. David, we have
Speaker 4: an esteem guest to bring. And now she survived Milwaukee,
Speaker 4: she's getting ready for Chicago. She's two I think it
Speaker 4: was two weeks in Crete. As she got ready for Chicago,
Speaker 4: ripped up that trip. Why don't you bring in Kaylee
Speaker 4: Lines with her observision.
Speaker 3: Of course, the co host of Balance of Power here
Speaker 3: on Bloomberg Radio and Bloomberg Television. As you say, she
Speaker 3: was at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee and did
Speaker 3: one of the craziest teleportations I've seen in my life,
Speaker 3: Shinjo getting back to Washington for a full day of
Speaker 3: coverage on Friday. As we all were kind of watching
Speaker 3: to see how this would play out, Katie Lines, let
Speaker 3: me ask you, first of all, sort of what you're
Speaker 3: watching for here as you look at these reactions come
Speaker 3: in from Democrats, senior democrats, junior democrats. What those statements
Speaker 3: and aggregate are telling you about the direction of all
Speaker 3: of this.
Speaker 11: Well, I think what's more telling at this point, David,
Speaker 11: is that the people who have not yet in a
Speaker 11: statement given a direct endorsement of Kamala Harris, including most
Speaker 11: of the senior leadership of Democrats in Congress, the House
Speaker 11: Democratic Leader Hackeing Jeffreys, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, have
Speaker 11: not explicitly endorsed her, as Joe Biden did about ten
Speaker 11: minutes after initially putting out the statement that he wasn't
Speaker 11: running for reelection. So those will be some key figures
Speaker 11: to watch, as well as those that we'd understood had
Speaker 11: been in conversation as to whether or not they could
Speaker 11: potentially be the Democratic nominee themselves. Think about the governor's
Speaker 11: Davie pritzkerve Illinois, Gavin Newsom of California, even the likes
Speaker 11: of Joshapiro and Pennsylvania Gretcher Whittmer in Michigan. We haven't
Speaker 11: really heard from them saying anything other than Kaylee service
Speaker 11: as president.
Speaker 4: What are they going to say, Mister Pritzker is in
Speaker 4: Illinois with a massive population loss, Chicago's flat on its back,
Speaker 4: forget about the convention and all that. What is going
Speaker 4: to be their response one day from now? Five days
Speaker 4: from now, ten days from now to a vice president
Speaker 4: with what, David a quarter of a billion dollars? What
Speaker 4: are they what are they going to say?
Speaker 11: Kaylee lines, Well, that's a very good point. The money
Speaker 11: is a huge factor here. Because Harris had been part
Speaker 11: of the Biden Harris campaign. She has access to that
Speaker 11: war chest with hundreds of millions of dollars in it,
Speaker 11: more easily than any other candidate would. Of course, if
Speaker 11: we're thinking about JB. Pritzker, who has his own personal
Speaker 11: fortune that held theoretically could tap to help sellth fund,
Speaker 11: that's a separate conversation. But really it's going to be
Speaker 11: about what happens in the coming days. Is we are
Speaker 11: not working with a great deal of time here at
Speaker 11: the convention. If four weeks from tomorrow, it starts on
Speaker 11: August nineteenth, so that is not a lot of time
Speaker 11: to get together support for a bid to go against
Speaker 11: Harris in an open convention if one wanted to. Of course,
Speaker 11: we're going to be watching very carefully for polling in
Speaker 11: the next few weeks to see how a Kamala Harris
Speaker 11: at the top of the ticket pulls against a Trump
Speaker 11: advance ticket. Since we know that jd Vance is Donald
Speaker 11: Trump's election to be the vice presidential nominee, and that
Speaker 11: polling could dictate the feeling moving forward toward the convention
Speaker 11: as to whether or not someone else needs to try
Speaker 11: to contest this and step in if Kamala Harris is
Speaker 11: not felt to be the strongest candidate to defeat Trump
Speaker 11: in November.
Speaker 4: Kaylee delicate question one of the Cardinal.
Speaker 11: Rules and a democratic prim Republicans are going.
Speaker 4: To a legal challenge to a president. On Bloomberg Television
Speaker 4: and Bloomberg Radio worldwide from her studios in Washington in
Speaker 4: New York, Joe Matthew, David Gurra, and Tom King with
Speaker 4: this special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. Joe Matthew and Katie.
Speaker 3: Lyons, You're listening to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance.
Speaker 3: I'm David Ura with Tom Keen and Joe Matthew.
Speaker 9: At this.
Speaker 2: Welcome back to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. From
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 3: You're listening to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. I'm
Speaker 3: David Gerro with Tom Keen and Joe Matthew. Breaking news
Speaker 3: this afternoon, President Joe Biden abandoned his reelection bid Biden,
Speaker 3: saying he would serve out his term, but endorsed Vice
Speaker 3: President Kamala Harris to take his place as the Democratic nominee.
Speaker 12: The great Nathan Dean. I'm just delighted to hear that
Speaker 12: we have a dad with us, as we call him
Speaker 12: in Washington here, because Nathan is in touch with the clients,
Speaker 12: the people who use the terminal, the people who will
Speaker 12: trade on this information. And before we bring in Nathan,
Speaker 12: I want to tell you guys that we have heard
Speaker 12: from the nominee in waiting. We just heard from Kamala
Speaker 12: Harris in a written statement here that is full of
Speaker 12: gratitude for several paragraphs, and goes on to write, I
Speaker 12: am honored to have the President's endorsement, and my intention
Speaker 12: is to earn and win this nomination, win the word
Speaker 12: that she chooses. Over the past year, I have traveled
Speaker 12: across the country talking with Americans about the clear choice
Speaker 12: in this momentous election, and that is what I will
Speaker 12: continue to do in the days and weeks ahead. She
Speaker 12: talks about Tom and David uniting the party to defeat
Speaker 12: Donald Trump and his extreme Project twenty twenty five agenda,
Speaker 12: referring to one hundred seven days until election day. Together,
Speaker 12: she writes, we will fight, we will win. This sounds
Speaker 12: like something that is written by someone in the throes
Speaker 12: of a primary contest or potentially throwing their hat into
Speaker 12: the ring, not a sitting vice president on a remarkable day. Here,
Speaker 12: Nathan Dean, thank you for joining us. I wonder who
Speaker 12: you're hearing from today already and how this might move
Speaker 12: markets tomorrow.
Speaker 13: Well, you know that we actually put out a series
Speaker 13: of notes on Friday just on the chance. Look, and
Speaker 13: nobody knew this was going to happen, But a lot
Speaker 13: of the notes that we put out really had two focuses. Now,
Speaker 13: the first focus is the macro level. And really this election,
Speaker 13: in our view, comes down to two things, tariffs and taxes.
Speaker 13: And obviously, when tariffs with Kamala Harris, you get a
Speaker 13: very similar policy than you do to President Biden, which
Speaker 13: is drastically different than that of President Trump. You know,
Speaker 13: President Trump has called for sixty percent tariffs on item
Speaker 13: imports from China. We anticipated Kamala Harris presidency if she
Speaker 13: were to be elected, to be very similar to more
Speaker 13: targeted sector tariffs. Then you have the tax argument. Now,
Speaker 13: the tax argument is going to be a third quarter
Speaker 13: of twenty twenty five argument because the tax of the
Speaker 13: individual tax cuts for the Trump the individual tax cuts
Speaker 13: as part of the Trump tax cuts expired at the
Speaker 13: end of twenty twenty five, and we see a lot
Speaker 13: of information about terms of assistance for lower cut consumers,
Speaker 13: lower income consumers, a lot of relief for the just
Speaker 13: you know, general, lower to middle income class, and would
Speaker 13: anticipate a you know, call for a higher tax rate
Speaker 13: on individuals that are making more than four hundred thousand dollars.
Speaker 13: It's very similar to what President Biden put out. But
Speaker 13: then you also have the sector specific impacts and really
Speaker 13: what our message to clients is, it's a lot of
Speaker 13: the regulatory status quo, because you know, whether it's banks, evs,
Speaker 13: TMT and so forth like bet. We anticipate that she'd
Speaker 13: be very focused on consumer financial regulation. We anticipate that
Speaker 13: she'd probably have a continuation in terms of m and
Speaker 13: A strategy and anti big tech scrutiny like you see
Speaker 13: over at the Federal Trade Commissioner to Lena Cohn. And
Speaker 13: that's a very important point here is that if Kamala
Speaker 13: Harris were to win the presidency, I think the regulatory
Speaker 13: leadership of the Biden era regulators. You know, most of
Speaker 13: them would probably stick around for the first year of
Speaker 13: her presidency. So I think it's just a lot of
Speaker 13: status quo and very different contrasts that you would see
Speaker 13: in her a Trump presidency.
Speaker 12: Interesting, So I guess we're not going to be talking
Speaker 12: about the Kamala trade, Nathan. I've not only heard about
Speaker 12: the Trump trade for the last two weeks, but even
Speaker 12: the JD trade last week. And it's funny you're talking
Speaker 12: about Lena Kahan.
Speaker 4: Does J. D.
Speaker 12: Vance have more in common with Kamala Harris or Donald
Speaker 12: Trump when it comes to the economy and financial regulations?
Speaker 13: So, you know, it's interesting. You know, I just first state,
Speaker 13: you know, this is the vice president policy and it
Speaker 13: really depends on you know, in JD. Vance's case, if
Speaker 13: President Trump were to defer to Senator Vance in terms
Speaker 13: of you go forth and run with these policies. But
Speaker 13: if he were, Senator Vance is very much aligned with
Speaker 13: Lena Khan. In fact, there was an event at the
Speaker 13: Bloomberg DC office not long ago where he said President
Speaker 13: Lina Khan was President Biden's best pick, and he even
Speaker 13: situated last week. I don't think he would do it.
Speaker 13: That he would, you know, pushed for Lena Khan to
Speaker 13: keep her position. But that's the new reality with the
Speaker 13: Republican Party of this idea of economic populism. It's not
Speaker 13: the very old Republican Party where you can just say
Speaker 13: at a high level, Republicans equal good for a big business.
Speaker 13: It's just not the case anymore. So, you know, what
Speaker 13: we often also have to say to our clients though,
Speaker 13: is just remember a lot of this is headline risk
Speaker 13: right now. I'm not saying it's not going to turn
Speaker 13: into things come to the election time, but you will
Speaker 13: see statements from President Trump, President Biden, Senator Vance, Vice
Speaker 13: President Kamala Harris, and when they become president or vice
Speaker 13: president or are elected, then the question is, how are
Speaker 13: you going to get your plan through Congress? It's almost
Speaker 13: like the Hamilton musical again, how are you going to
Speaker 13: get your plan through? And things begin to actually dial down,
Speaker 13: you know, if they start and say I want to
Speaker 13: do a number ten on this issue, by the time
Speaker 13: they get to Congress in maybe a six or a five.
Speaker 13: So you know, just always keep in mind in terms
Speaker 13: of you know, timing and so forth for the clients
Speaker 13: that we're talking to. It's really the tariff argument first,
Speaker 13: taxes second, and then the sector arguments for each individual
Speaker 13: policies and legislation's third.
Speaker 3: Nathan, bearing in mind this is uncharted territory, I wonder
Speaker 3: what these next few months like through leading to the election.
Speaker 3: I think it's safe to say there hasn't been a
Speaker 3: whole lot of business getting done in Washington already. But
Speaker 3: how does this slow this down? You look as well
Speaker 3: at the comments that we're getting from Republicans about whether
Speaker 3: Joe Biden should step aside. Let's set that aside ourselves
Speaker 3: and just note here we have a lame duck president.
Speaker 3: History can tell us a lot about somebody in that
Speaker 3: position from a policymaking perspective, from a political perspective, what
Speaker 3: are these next few months look like given what's changed
Speaker 3: today in Washington.
Speaker 13: Well, look, Joe Biden is a lame duck starting to morning,
Speaker 13: if not this evening. So that's really there's two other
Speaker 13: avenues that we need to talk about. Versus the regulatory stuff.
Speaker 13: You will probably see President Biden PUSH's regulators to finalize
Speaker 13: their agenda as soon as possible. Now, this is going
Speaker 13: to probably come after the Congressional Review Act date. I'll
Speaker 13: spare the audience, but all just you need to know
Speaker 13: is is that any regulation that's essentially finalized from now
Speaker 13: until the end of the year could be overturned if
Speaker 13: the Republicans win a House, the Senate, and the presidency.
Speaker 13: But I would also intenicipate President Biden to look internationally.
Speaker 13: So this is something that we've seen lame duck presidents.
Speaker 13: Do you know President Obama did this in the last
Speaker 13: two years of his term. President George W. Bush did
Speaker 13: this in the last two years of the term. Because
Speaker 13: when Capitol Hill looks at the White House and says, look,
Speaker 13: I'm not going to stick my neck out for you
Speaker 13: because you're not going to be here in six months,
Speaker 13: you lose a lot of political capital. So the presidencies
Speaker 13: often look internationally. So if President Biden has the situation,
Speaker 13: I look, I know we're only three and a half year,
Speaker 13: three and a half months till the election, approximately six
Speaker 13: and a half months until we have a new president.
Speaker 13: But I wouldn't be surprised if President Biden were to,
Speaker 13: you know, take the Air Force one, if you will
Speaker 13: fly abroad and spend a little bit more time over there,
Speaker 13: just because the power of the presidency is a little
Speaker 13: bit more powerful when it comes to international relations.
Speaker 3: Nathan, do you have a good handle on what Kamala
Speaker 3: Harris's policy preferences are? We were talking about trade, talking
Speaker 3: about immigration. Obviously this was a big part of her remit.
Speaker 3: But we're learning day by day more about the junior
Speaker 3: senator from Ohio. The degree to which he's kind of
Speaker 3: an enigma in the Republican Party. That was certainly in
Speaker 3: stark relief during the course of that convention. The way
Speaker 3: that things that he supports and espouses are very separate
Speaker 3: and different from what we saw in Republicans a long
Speaker 3: time ago. How much of Kamala Harris's policy biography is discreet,
Speaker 3: is different from the man with whom she's serving. How
Speaker 3: much do we know about that at this point?
Speaker 13: So it's actually fairly light. I mean, all we're going
Speaker 13: off of. We actually had an hour long call on
Speaker 13: about this on Friday amongst the team going through all this,
Speaker 13: and it's fairly light. You know, we have to go
Speaker 13: back to our time. As Attorney General of California, she
Speaker 13: participated in a twenty five billion dollar settlement against the
Speaker 13: big banks like Bank of America, JP Morgan and Wells
Speaker 13: Fargo on foreclosure practices. Now that was something that forty
Speaker 13: seven other states and the District of Columbia went through.
Speaker 13: But as her time of the Attorney General, she really
Speaker 13: made a significant push on this idea of consumer protection,
Speaker 13: especially when it comes to big business and this idea
Speaker 13: of consumer protection. So we certainly think that if she
Speaker 13: were to move forward and become the president, you could
Speaker 13: see a push on things like offering student debt relief. Look,
Speaker 13: you know, I'm not saying it's the other courts are
Speaker 13: going to allow it, but certainly the president can do
Speaker 13: that and say let's continuing with this type of relief.
Speaker 13: But then as senator, you know from California, then you
Speaker 13: become one of one hundred and it's a little bit
Speaker 13: more difficult. But what I would say is is that overall,
Speaker 13: you know, when President Biden came into office, we viewed
Speaker 13: him as a centrist president, and we think that he
Speaker 13: moved closer to Kamala Harris's policies than Kamala Harris did
Speaker 13: moving to his policies. So I think the President Biden
Speaker 13: policies that you have of today are going to be
Speaker 13: very indicative of Kamala Harris if she were to win.
Speaker 4: Nathan, thank you so much. Nathan Dean in Washington this
Speaker 4: morning again reaction the world to a president who steps aside.
Speaker 4: One headline that I saw, I believe that was the
Speaker 4: Washington Post, our special covers Joe Matthew and Washington David
Speaker 4: Gerr in New York, Tom Keene's special edition of Bloomberg
Speaker 4: Surveillance Joe Matthew stealed for a five PM Balance of Power,
Speaker 4: which we hope to see as well. Joe, you were
Speaker 4: weaned on Massachusetts politics and one of the great things
Speaker 4: of Massachusetts politics is there were Republicans and Democrats in
Speaker 4: the middle. From where you sit, Joe Matthew, is anybody
Speaker 4: out there on this Sunday afternoon, this Sunday edge of evening,
Speaker 4: is anybody in the middle? Boy?
Speaker 12: Well, if you mean in the middle between Kamala Harris
Speaker 12: and somebody else, I think that might be a question
Speaker 12: in the middle politically, I don't know. Do you think
Speaker 12: Seth Moulton, who was one of the first I think
Speaker 12: number three Democrat in Congress north Shore of Massachusetts Salem
Speaker 12: who actually called on Joe Biden to step down and
Speaker 12: called for a new generation. Yeah, remembering he was blackballed
Speaker 12: by many in the Democratic Party when he tried to
Speaker 12: run against Nancy Pelosi. But Middle I don't think is
Speaker 12: going to get you through a primary cycle here, which
Speaker 12: this feels like a lot, although I will point out
Speaker 12: this is pretty important. Gretchen Whitmer and now the governor
Speaker 12: of California, Gavin Newsom, say they will not challenge Kamala Harris.
Speaker 4: This is going to come. So it's moving in real time.
Speaker 4: I root for all of you nationwide. David is doing
Speaker 4: a much better job. Joe lives stuff. I mean, we're
Speaker 4: not like Joe, but David, it's moving in real time
Speaker 4: by this effect.
Speaker 3: And I'd love to get Joe's perspective on this. I mean,
Speaker 3: Tom asked me, Joe sort of what stood out to
Speaker 3: me about the way that this has been playing out,
Speaker 3: and I said, yes, it was that this was done
Speaker 3: in a letter and then we had the endorsement in
Speaker 3: short order and a tweet following that. But it has
Speaker 3: been the kind of mounting quantity of knock on endorsements
Speaker 3: that we've seen from members of Congress, and I'd love
Speaker 3: to just hear perspective on that. Joe how quickly this
Speaker 3: has happened, and what it says to you about the
Speaker 3: Democratic parties willing is here as I see it to Galvin,
Speaker 3: I as an orient itself around Kamala Harris.
Speaker 12: Well, it's not like they didn't have time to prepare
Speaker 12: for this. Apps and knowing that the phone calls were happening,
Speaker 12: the most important ones I've seen here CBC, CCHC. The
Speaker 12: last holdout was Jim Clyburn. You've got the Congressional Black
Speaker 12: Caucus now endorsing Harris with gratitude to Joe Biden. A
Speaker 12: great debt of gratitude, says the statement of the Congressional
Speaker 12: Hispanic Caucus chair now doing exactly the same here on X.
Speaker 12: So this this feels kind of like a coronation. But guys,
Speaker 12: you know, I have to admit I've been pushing back
Speaker 12: on a lot of this conversation over the last week
Speaker 12: because this is I thought, why we had a vice
Speaker 12: president whoever heard of blowing up the whole thing a
Speaker 12: couple of weeks before a convention when you actually have
Speaker 12: someone in waiting who shares the delegates and the money.
Speaker 12: To your point earlier, Tom, it does seem like that
Speaker 12: would have created an enormous a voice and would have
Speaker 12: insulted a lot of people.
Speaker 3: Absolutely, you're listening to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance.
Speaker 3: I'm David Durou with Tom Keen and Joe Matthew. Plenty ahead.
Speaker 3: This has been.
Speaker 2: Welcome back to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance from
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 3: You're listening to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. I'm
Speaker 3: David Dura with Tom Keen and Joe Matthew. Breaking news
Speaker 3: this afternoon, President Joe Biden abandoned his reelection bid, Biden
Speaker 3: saying he would serve out his term, but endorsed Vice
Speaker 3: President Kamala Harris to take his place as the Democratic nominee.
Speaker 4: Joining us now is can I just say my favorite
Speaker 4: Henrietta Trees is just absolutely fabulous at Veda partners with
Speaker 4: encyclopedic knowledge of Capitol Hill. Because this is not just
Speaker 4: about the presidential election, It's about a landslide. Is the
Speaker 4: Republican speak of a Republican House, a Republican Senate with
Speaker 4: mister Trump on term two, I would note Henrietta Trees
Speaker 4: and thank you for joining Joe Matthew, David Gura and myself,
Speaker 4: Jessica Taylor over at to cook political report, writing up
Speaker 4: a single headline only days ago, Michigan Senate moves to
Speaker 4: toss up as Democrats tied to defy political gravity. You
Speaker 4: are expert on houses in Senate. Does does this news
Speaker 4: today make it less likely of a landslide? I would
Speaker 4: say a Republican landslide.
Speaker 14: Yes, thank you for having me the feelings mutual. Yes, absolutely,
Speaker 14: this makes it less of a landslide. American voters and
Speaker 14: in particular Democrats, have been primed for this chaos for
Speaker 14: months now. They knew it well before the sort of
Speaker 14: elites of the party got on board and started calling
Speaker 14: for President Biden to step aside and not run for
Speaker 14: a second term. The American public has disproportionately large support
Speaker 14: for the Senate candidates, including in Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania,
Speaker 14: you know, even Montana, than anything that President Biden was
Speaker 14: doing at the top of the ticket. So his decision,
Speaker 14: his sort of magnanimous and enormous decision to step aside
Speaker 14: and put Kamala at the front up a race for
Speaker 14: the vice presidential ticket, opens up a debate about which
Speaker 14: direction the party is going to go on the electoral
Speaker 14: college front. And what's interesting to me is that you know,
Speaker 14: Trump is ahead by four and a half points in Pennsylvania.
Speaker 14: Biden and Kamala Harris have been doing very well in
Speaker 14: Michigan and Wisconsin comparatively, but the next closest states in
Speaker 14: line are Georgia and then just not too far after that,
Speaker 14: North Carolina. I wouldn't be surprised if the whole Democratic
Speaker 14: Party strategy shifts to more of a southern direction. I'm
Speaker 14: especially just about to publish the electoral college map if
Speaker 14: they lose Nevada and Arizona, which they could pick it
Speaker 14: up still if they win North Carolina.
Speaker 4: And we're sick about this, David Gurrs, I first heard
Speaker 4: that from Joe Matthew. Yes, it's just incredible how that works.
Speaker 3: We've been parroting the Roy Cooper line numerous times, Joe
Speaker 3: over the course over the course of these two hours, Henryette,
Speaker 3: I want to ask you about what happened in March
Speaker 3: of twenty twenty one. That is, when Joe Biden said
Speaker 3: to Kamala Harris, I'm naming you the borders are You're
Speaker 3: going to have responsibility for the US Mexico border and
Speaker 3: policy they're going forward this This is going to be
Speaker 3: something that the specter of this decision is going to
Speaker 3: come out pretty quickly, and they're going to use it
Speaker 3: against her. How does she push back on that? You
Speaker 3: look at what's happened here in recent months, the number
Speaker 3: of border guard interactions with folks crossing the border has
Speaker 3: gone down. There has been progress here. How much is
Speaker 3: that going to stick with the electorate. How effectively do
Speaker 3: you think the Trump campaign would be able to use
Speaker 3: that against Kamala Harris if indeed she is the nominee
Speaker 3: here going forward.
Speaker 14: It's fascinating voter opinion where they have immigration is the
Speaker 14: number one issue. These are disproportionately white, male, middle aged
Speaker 14: voters who are going to be in the Trump camp.
Speaker 14: I think no matter what Democrats convey or Kamala Harris
Speaker 14: conveys about the facts on the ground, I've been marketing,
Speaker 14: you know, obviously, all the time since February.
Speaker 6: And one of the most striking things the constant.
Speaker 14: Request I get for information after our meetings is whenever
Speaker 14: I say, you know, border crossings are down fifty four percent,
Speaker 14: they're down forty percent. They're now at the lowest point
Speaker 14: they have been even since before Biden took office, and
Speaker 14: everybody has to fact check that because it sounds so
Speaker 14: disjointed from what we hear either at the RNC or
Speaker 14: you for the last four years.
Speaker 6: So I think that there's a big education.
Speaker 14: Process that the Kamala Harris and whoever her VP is
Speaker 14: going to be next and President Biden to explain that
Speaker 14: in the last six months they have gotten immigration crossings
Speaker 14: at the border below the level of even when they
Speaker 14: took office. So that message is going to have to
Speaker 14: get across, for sure, mostly to Democratic voters, and I
Speaker 14: would also say suburban white voters like those in Indiana
Speaker 14: who have voted twenty two percent for Nikki Hayley just
Speaker 14: a few weeks back. Land.
Speaker 12: You back to this tweet from jd Vance that has
Speaker 12: a lot of us talking in the wake of Milwaukee,
Speaker 12: where we heard from a number of Republican lawmakers who
Speaker 12: said there's no way that if Joe Biden drops out
Speaker 12: of this race, he can continue serving out the rest
Speaker 12: of this term. Jd Vance saying there is no middle
Speaker 12: ground running for reelection would be a clear admission that
Speaker 12: Trump was right all along about Biden not being mentally
Speaker 12: fit enough to serve as commander in chief. Donald Trump
Speaker 12: puts on truth social following the news today Crooked Joe
Speaker 12: just got knocked out. So now I'll have to do
Speaker 12: it a fourth time. I guess my question is, how
Speaker 12: likely is it if Donald Trump wins another term, will
Speaker 12: he be the forty seventh or forty eighth president.
Speaker 14: I would say if he were to win another term,
Speaker 14: it would be this next time around.
Speaker 6: If that's what you're getting at.
Speaker 14: I mean, I do think it's a false construct to
Speaker 14: come in the way that Jadie Vance does in his
Speaker 14: tweet and say, you know, Biden need But could we.
Speaker 12: Be in a world in which Kamala Harris finds herself
Speaker 12: president of the United States before November and then Donald
Speaker 12: Trump serves another term?
Speaker 14: No, No, I mean, first of all, the challenger doesn't
Speaker 14: get to dictate the terms of the boots on the
Speaker 14: ground reality. Brden is president. There is not another election
Speaker 14: between now and then. Kamala is not gonna, you know,
Speaker 14: step in and you surp his role. This is why
Speaker 14: there's succession, as you just discussed, you know, this is
Speaker 14: what it says in the constitution. So he finishes his term,
Speaker 14: he's not running for another term, and he's decided that
Speaker 14: he's going to endorse Kamala and we'll go through the
Speaker 14: process of the DNC. But no, I don't expect Biden
Speaker 14: to step down. And I think it's a sort of
Speaker 14: a false construct to think that the challenger has any
Speaker 14: say in who the current president is.
Speaker 12: Not to suggest as much, but Joe Biden might find
Speaker 12: that he cannot finish out the rest of this term.
Speaker 12: Kamala Harris would then have to step in. Donald Trump
Speaker 12: could still win the election. I guess I'm just wondering
Speaker 12: if we should all be calling, you know, talking about
Speaker 12: the possibility of Trump forty seven when it could be
Speaker 12: forty eight. What makes you so sure Joe Biden can
Speaker 12: finish out the rest.
Speaker 4: Of his term.
Speaker 14: Well, I'm not his healthcare provider or anything along those lines,
Speaker 14: but I don't think that a groundswell push that has
Speaker 14: successfully gotten him to not run for a second term
Speaker 14: would be effective in trying to get him to resign quickly.
Speaker 14: That's not what the Democratic Party is asking for, That's
Speaker 14: not what the delegates are asking for.
Speaker 6: So I'm not expecting.
Speaker 4: David Gerry, have you seen any more news here, any
Speaker 4: more comments from people I see? I'm watching Fox here
Speaker 4: with our great TV setup here, it's going to be
Speaker 4: fascinating to see the response of the Republicans all this.
Speaker 4: Have you seen any new colors too?
Speaker 3: And see my eye drifting over to Fox News where
Speaker 3: the Chiron was saying Democrats divided. And I will say
Speaker 3: from all that I've read the great summary that we've
Speaker 3: gotten on our top live blog on the Bloomberg, it
Speaker 3: doesn't seem like there is a ton of division within
Speaker 3: the Democrats who have waited on this. Yes, there were
Speaker 3: some like Governor Evers who were withholding an explicit nomination,
Speaker 3: but a lot of people getting in line and endorsing
Speaker 3: Kamala Harris as the nominee.
Speaker 4: I see.
Speaker 3: You know we spoke earlier about President Clinton and Secretary
Speaker 3: Clinton endorsing Kamala Harris in a joint statement. Another married couple,
Speaker 3: Senator Kelly and Gabby Gifford's doing the same thing as well.
Speaker 3: Senator Kelly is somebody we were talking about a little
Speaker 3: earlier on the show as somebody who could be seen
Speaker 3: as a potential nominee, somebody who former astronaut, maybe combat pilot.
Speaker 3: Could he be somebody who woud seek the presidency?
Speaker 4: Yeah? But can he take Pennsylvania.
Speaker 3: Well, he indicating he's no longer no longer interested in
Speaker 3: doing that.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 3: Yeah, But to that point, Henrietta, let me ask you
Speaker 3: sort of who you're looking at as we kind of
Speaker 3: look at all of these names and statements coming out here,
Speaker 3: who do you want to hear from? And Joe mentioning
Speaker 3: just moments ago the importance of hearing from Jim Clyburn,
Speaker 3: who essentially annointed Joe Biden to winning the nomination the
Speaker 3: last time around. Are there any that you haven't heard
Speaker 3: from yet? Who do you think is that has the
Speaker 3: most signal importance here as we put together those endorsements
Speaker 3: in the coming hours.
Speaker 14: Well, I didn't realize it was such common understanding already,
Speaker 14: But I do think that a lot of attention to
Speaker 14: be paid on North Carolina and Georgia right now, and
Speaker 14: that strategy Arizona would be a fantastic thing to be
Speaker 14: able to keep in your back pocket for the Democratic Party.
Speaker 14: But if you're following it all the primary data and
Speaker 14: the voting registration and responses coming in there now, which
Speaker 14: is being published weekly, Republicans are far and away ahead
Speaker 14: in Arizona.
Speaker 6: So when you look at the in just as the
Speaker 6: case in Nevada.
Speaker 14: So as you look at who could be the vice
Speaker 14: presidential nominee, you know, a Roy Cooper kind of name
Speaker 14: in North Carolina makes a lot more sense than a
Speaker 14: Mark Kelly. If they're going to pursue that strategy, which
Speaker 14: I assume they would, I wouldn't anticipate Raphael Warnock being involved,
Speaker 14: but I do think that it's really a concentration on
Speaker 14: the swing states. It's my expectation that you're not going
Speaker 14: to see two women on the tickets, so that takes
Speaker 14: Gretch and Whitmer off the table, even though Michigan would
Speaker 14: be very nice to have some additional shoring up. But
Speaker 14: Shapiro in Pennsylvania also makes sense. Pritzker and Illinois has
Speaker 14: talked about a lot, but my personal focus for the
Speaker 14: next couple weeks is going to be on North Carolina
Speaker 14: and Georgia, and I assume that's the direction.
Speaker 12: They're going to go with good reason, Henrietta. When you
Speaker 12: consider the next three weeks, typically you'd want to roll
Speaker 12: out something like this as soon as you can. Following
Speaker 12: your opponent's political convention. The RNC is behind us, Donald
Speaker 12: Trump and JD Vance are already traveling together. How sure.
Speaker 12: Does this ticket need to be before we get into
Speaker 12: Chicago or will this running be decided there?
Speaker 6: I don't think it needs to be sure at all.
Speaker 14: I mean, think of Trump announcing Jadie Vance on Monday
Speaker 14: of the convention. You know, it really doesn't be for
Speaker 14: a few more weeks. Certainly the delegates are going to
Speaker 14: be meeting the Roles Committee and all those groups, but
Speaker 14: you don't need to have a nominee for a while.
Speaker 6: But what I would encourage investors to think about is
Speaker 6: that Trump is.
Speaker 14: At very high numbers in the polls right now, well
Speaker 14: above where he has been leading Biden in all year,
Speaker 14: thirty four points five or six in some states. So
Speaker 14: ask yourself sort of the trajectory of what's going to
Speaker 14: happen from here. We have of all the names we
Speaker 14: just listed on the shortlist for VP, almost none of
Speaker 14: them have written name recognition that's above fifty percent. So
Speaker 14: there's going to be a tremendous amount of focus on
Speaker 14: this seismic event because it is so massive to sort
Speaker 14: of the process of democracy, and that's naturally going to
Speaker 14: attach attract eyeballs. What we're going to see is massive
Speaker 14: name recognition shift the polls. I think pretty materially my
Speaker 14: expectation as we start off at a deficit, I'm going
Speaker 14: to start treating Trump as though he is the incumbent
Speaker 14: because he's been president for you know, it's obviously a
Speaker 14: little bit of a gray area. So I'm going to
Speaker 14: see want to see Kamala above try out by three
Speaker 14: or four points in these swing states in order to
Speaker 14: think that she could reasonably win them. That's going to
Speaker 14: be the strategy. I think poling is going to move
Speaker 14: a lot in the next couple of weeks, which.
Speaker 4: Henrietta, you and Terryans have been just great about that.
Speaker 4: I'm really interested in what the polls show. Henrietta Trey's
Speaker 4: Vada partner somehow. I think we'll speak tomorrow. Thank you
Speaker 4: so much for being with this.
Speaker 3: You're listening to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. I'm
Speaker 3: David Dura with Tom Keen and Joe Matthew.
Speaker 4: We you ahead.
Speaker 2: This is Believe. Welcome back to a special edition of
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Surveillance from Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 3: You're listening to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. I'm
Speaker 3: David Dua with Tom Keen and Joe Matthew. Breaking News
Speaker 3: this afternoon, President Joe Biden abandoned his re election bid,
Speaker 3: Biden saying he would serve out his term, but endorsed
Speaker 3: Vice President Kamala Harris to take his place as the
Speaker 3: Democratic nominee.
Speaker 4: Let us listen Thursday to the vice President of the
Speaker 4: United States.
Speaker 15: Donald Trump were to win in November. He will continue
Speaker 15: to sell out working families, he will continue to attack
Speaker 15: reproductive freedom, and he will continue to undermine our democracy.
Speaker 4: The Vice President of the United States here on this
Speaker 4: very special Sunday that was done a few days ago.
Speaker 4: Joe Matthew, your thoughts here as we move up towards
Speaker 4: your balance of power.
Speaker 12: We heard from JD Vance a short time ago. This
Speaker 12: is the latest since the decision. Joe Biden has been
Speaker 12: the worst president in my lifetime. In Kamala Harris right
Speaker 12: there with him every step of the way. This is
Speaker 12: going to be the message here that nothing has changed.
Speaker 12: Remember what we talked about in Milwaukee. This is the
Speaker 12: same person with a different name. Wait for her to
Speaker 12: show up at the debate with Donald Trump, which I
Speaker 12: will submit is going to be a lot more challenging
Speaker 12: for him than the one he just went through. What
Speaker 12: the line from the Republican Party is what you see
Speaker 12: here is the same as well, you had. We just
Speaker 12: beat Joe Biden. Now we have to do it again
Speaker 12: with Kamala Harris.
Speaker 3: Picking up on something you mentioned there, Joe, I mean,
Speaker 3: I look back at the interview that Bloomberg BusinessWeek did
Speaker 3: with Donald Trump. He said this very explicitly. I think
Speaker 3: they asked him in that interview, Nancy Cook, Bradstone and
Speaker 3: our other colleagues asking him sort of what difference it
Speaker 3: would make if the nominee wasn't going to be Joe Biden.
Speaker 3: And what he said was effectively, the campaign is the same.
Speaker 3: The way that they plan on waging this is the same.
Speaker 3: And Tom, I think that'll be fascinating to see how
Speaker 3: true that is here as we move ahead.
Speaker 4: Joining us right now on Bloomberg Television, Bloomberg Radio, and
Speaker 4: on YouTube. Is the most important person for us and Washington.
Speaker 4: She's Margaret Collins. She's the one that takes care of
Speaker 4: me and Washington gets me through the day somehow, and
Speaker 4: herds cats to the tune of any really David any
Speaker 4: Washington News bureau. The person running the news bureau. It's
Speaker 4: like the worst job at any.
Speaker 3: News Oh, it's a big job. I'll say that I
Speaker 3: would call it the worst, but she does.
Speaker 4: Peggy Collins joins us here on this historic Sunday, Peggy
Speaker 4: to talk about western Massachusetts, because I can remember times
Speaker 4: where Massachusetts surprised me on the edge of a purple state.
Speaker 4: You're out of the College of the Holy Cross, which
Speaker 4: is from Boston, far western Massachusetts. From your reporting and
Speaker 4: all the sources you have at our Washington News Bureau,
Speaker 4: would you assume that purple states became more purple this
Speaker 4: Sunday afternoon?
Speaker 16: Well, I think Tom, it remains to be seen, you know,
Speaker 16: sitting here today in this Washington Bureau that you just
Speaker 16: mentioned with colleagues like our great Joe Matthew and you,
Speaker 16: as you're saying when you're visiting, it's just a historic
Speaker 16: day here in Washington. But there are you know, still
Speaker 16: several months ago, we're coming off of the Republican National
Speaker 16: Convention in Milwaukee, where the Republicans were riding high really
Speaker 16: feeling like that map that you're talking about blue, red,
Speaker 16: purple had really opened up over the last few weeks
Speaker 16: after Biden's disastrous debate, and they were talking about states
Speaker 16: being in play, like Minnesota, New Hampshire, Virginia. But I
Speaker 16: do think, as David was just mentioning, it's going to
Speaker 16: be interesting to see where the pools land over the
Speaker 16: next several days, now that Trump is no longer going
Speaker 16: to be running against Biden, and you're going to have,
Speaker 16: no matter what, the younger candidate, you could have a
Speaker 16: woman candidate, and I think it will change the landscape
Speaker 16: for sure.
Speaker 4: Joe Matthew, excuse me, Joe Matthew. There are important Congress people,
Speaker 4: and then there's the most important Congress person for President.
Speaker 12: Biden, the man who brung him, as Joe Biden likes
Speaker 12: to say, Jim Clyburn now making it official endorsing Kamala
Speaker 12: Harris with a lengthy statement Tom that of course begins
Speaker 12: with a lengthy paragraph talking about the honor and privilege
Speaker 12: of calling Joe Biden a friend, but it ends with
Speaker 12: the endorsement I echo the good judgment he demonstrated, and
Speaker 12: selecting Vice President Harris to lead this nation alongside him,
Speaker 12: and proud to follow his lead in support for candidacy
Speaker 12: to succeed him as the party's nominee for President Peggy Collins.
Speaker 12: This is a pretty big moment and the Democrats supporting
Speaker 12: Kamala Harris, who have been very worried about this being
Speaker 12: blown into an open fight, are probably breathing a sigh
Speaker 12: of relief. Now is the idea of a contested convention
Speaker 12: now off the table?
Speaker 16: I don't think it's off the table, Joe, But the
Speaker 16: signs that we're seeing from our reporting so far is
Speaker 16: that quickly a number of key Democrats, including the Clintons,
Speaker 16: are coming out and endorsing Harris. So the current right
Speaker 16: now seems to be going in her direction without any
Speaker 16: big names that have been talked about, Whitmer, Pritzker, Newsomb,
Speaker 16: you know, coming out yet to challenge. They don't have
Speaker 16: a lot of time left before the Democratic National Convention
Speaker 16: starts on August nineteenth, so the question of whether or
Speaker 16: not the party can hold together behind a candidate between
Speaker 16: now and then is critical.
Speaker 4: Peggy.
Speaker 3: I think of the old Hemingway quote about Bankruptcley slowly
Speaker 3: than all at once as I think about how all
Speaker 3: of this happened, and there was the beginning a handful
Speaker 3: of Congress people who raised alarm about this suggested that
Speaker 3: Joe Biden should drop out. That began to build over
Speaker 3: the last few days that's gotten us to this moment.
Speaker 3: What is your perspective on the timing of all of this.
Speaker 3: You know, we have a few weeks here till the convention,
Speaker 3: one hundred and seven days until the election itself. I
Speaker 3: guess what I'm asking you is is what took the
Speaker 3: president so long as we sort of saw the writing
Speaker 3: on the wall, and how much does that sort of
Speaker 3: not damage the Democratic Party here going forward but set
Speaker 3: them back? Yes, he had COVID, Yes he was road
Speaker 3: with Beach Delaware fighting that and thinking through all of this.
Speaker 3: But what do you make of how long this took
Speaker 3: in light of that poor debate performance and what happens since?
Speaker 16: Well, I think a couple of things, David, As you
Speaker 16: mentioned the debate performance June twenty seventh, but you know,
Speaker 16: we were working furiously through July fourth weekend because cracks
Speaker 16: had already started to form then. So he held on
Speaker 16: for weeks. He held on through NATO, which was happening
Speaker 16: here in Washington after July fourth weekend, and then he
Speaker 16: went through the presser but didn't knock it.
Speaker 1: Out of the park.
Speaker 16: It was okay after the NATO meeting, and I think
Speaker 16: it's this past week the mountain of pressure that just
Speaker 16: kept building and more and more people coming out, even
Speaker 16: while the Republicans were convening in Milwaukee and either even
Speaker 16: after the attemptive assassination with Trump that certain key people
Speaker 16: came out and called for the President to step aside
Speaker 16: in the race. I will also note, when you think
Speaker 16: about the last time this happened in nineteen sixty eight
Speaker 16: with LBJ, he didn't address from the Oval Office. That
Speaker 16: surprised the nation at the time to say he was
Speaker 16: not going to seek reelection. In this case, I think
Speaker 16: Biden really truly was trying to hold on and thought
Speaker 16: he might be able to make a case to stay
Speaker 16: in the race. But ultimately the pressure just broke that
Speaker 16: damn and he had to make the announcement in a
Speaker 16: statement over Twitter because he's dealing with COVID in Rehova speech.
Speaker 16: So I think it's not the way they wanted to
Speaker 16: do it, certainly, and I think he was fighting to
Speaker 16: the bitter end to hold on.
Speaker 3: Peggy, what's that speech going to be? Like alluded to
Speaker 3: in that note to the American people, He's going to
Speaker 3: explain his decision more in the coming days. Here, What
Speaker 3: do you what do our colleagues expect in terms of
Speaker 3: both presentation, what we're likely to hear from the President,
Speaker 3: any sense at this point of how much that's going
Speaker 3: to mirror what we got from LBJ in nineteen sixty eight.
Speaker 16: I think we're still reporting out when exactly that will
Speaker 16: be and where he will do it. We think that
Speaker 16: it would likely be from the White House. But I
Speaker 16: think in terms of the themes we expect him to
Speaker 16: hit so far, would certainly be on democracy. That's something
Speaker 16: that he really hammered in on before the midterms a
Speaker 16: couple of years ago and had a lot of resonance.
Speaker 16: But I do think it's one thing that he really
Speaker 16: had said time and time again that he feels like
Speaker 16: this is an election where democracy is on the line,
Speaker 16: and he feels like he has held up democracy here
Speaker 16: in the country. So we expect that and also expect
Speaker 16: him to note a couple of his key achievements, that
Speaker 16: being the huge infrastructure spending bill that he got passed
Speaker 16: through and the Inflation Act that has a lot of
Speaker 16: future spending on things like energy efficiency electric vehicles, which
Speaker 16: of course the Republicans have attacked. But I think he
Speaker 16: will hone in on some of his legislative achievements and
Speaker 16: harken back to like where he started and what he
Speaker 16: wanted to do when he first became president.
Speaker 12: Peggy, what do you think of the fact that this
Speaker 12: rolled out on Twitter? Is Joe Biden not physically well
Speaker 12: enough to address the American people? Shouldn't this be an
Speaker 12: oval office address?
Speaker 4: You asked a delicate question, Joe Matthew I thought of
Speaker 4: that driving in here. I mean, you really wonder at
Speaker 4: the pace of this. Thank you Joe for asking't it? Peggy?
Speaker 16: I think COVID is one hundred percent a factor. I
Speaker 16: think you know, he wasn't looking good last week when
Speaker 16: they announced that he was he had COVID and was
Speaker 16: going to need to isolate. And I think we're on
Speaker 16: a Sunday and we're going into the week markets are
Speaker 16: going to open in Asia. I think they really did
Speaker 16: feel like, with the mountain of pressure that they needed
Speaker 16: to make a decision. They couldn't just leave it hanging
Speaker 16: in the air in terms of the good for the
Speaker 16: party over the next several days. But I don't think
Speaker 16: this is the ideal scenario for how they would have
Speaker 16: liked to do it. And because he is still recovering
Speaker 16: from COVID, so therefore or can't do a public address
Speaker 16: the way they might have wanted to.
Speaker 4: Margaret Collins, our Washington newsbrial chief, a lengthy Sunday to
Speaker 4: say the least, thank you so much for you and
Speaker 4: your team's effort in Washington. There is a view from
Speaker 4: sixteen hundred Pennsylvania Avenue. It is a different view on
Speaker 4: this Sunday afternoon, David Gura, Jordan Fabian has been seeing
Speaker 4: it from there to Delaware.
Speaker 3: Jordan, great to have you with us here for your
Speaker 3: perspective on this as well. And maybe I can put
Speaker 3: to you a variation of the question that I asked Peggy,
Speaker 3: which is what has this weekend been like? What has
Speaker 3: the build been like in recent days to this moment?
Speaker 3: You charting the president's state of mind and what he's
Speaker 3: been up to. And in Rehoboth Beach where he has
Speaker 3: a home, what finally broke the dam? Final convinced him
Speaker 3: from your reporting, what convinced him that this was the
Speaker 3: decision that he.
Speaker 2: Had to make.
Speaker 10: Yeah, Look, he's been under just relentless pressure from his
Speaker 10: allies even after he was diagnosed with COVID. Last week
Speaker 10: he saw at least a dozen other Democratic lawmakers come out,
Speaker 10: and so it appeared the pressure just became unbearable. It's
Speaker 10: still surprising though, I mean, Biden has been, you know,
Speaker 10: a stubborn guy throughout his career. In the weeks prior,
Speaker 10: it seemed like the pressure was only causing him to
Speaker 10: dig in further. But you know, perhaps weekend, by COVID,
Speaker 10: sitting at home in Rehoboth Beach with his family and
Speaker 10: close advisors, they were able to step back and reflect
Speaker 10: and just see the picture that a past the victories
Speaker 10: against Donald Trump just wasn't tenable.
Speaker 12: What happens, go ahead, go ahead, shoe yes, sorry, David.
Speaker 12: What happens with this meeting with Benjamin Nettan ya who
Speaker 12: this week? Some thought that would be a reason for
Speaker 12: Joe Biden to postpone a statement like this. He still
Speaker 12: plans to meet with the prime minister. Does this go
Speaker 12: as schedules?
Speaker 10: There's a lot of uncertainty right now, and so I
Speaker 10: don't want to say anything definitively, but we haven't heard
Speaker 10: otherwise that that's rescheduled. The President did indicate in his
Speaker 10: statement that he's going to serve out his term, so
Speaker 10: an official act like that, like meeting with the leader
Speaker 10: of Israel would seem to stay on the schedule, but
Speaker 10: we just don't know for sure at this time what
Speaker 10: he's really going.
Speaker 4: To do next week. Joined a delicate question. How is
Speaker 4: missus Biden the first Lady? Has there been any reporting
Speaker 4: this afternoon of well, I guess the family in general,
Speaker 4: but I think all of any persuasion of politics would
Speaker 4: like to know how the first Lady is doing. Has
Speaker 4: there been any reporting on that, Jordan Fabian.
Speaker 10: It's been hard to figure out what exactly the reaction is,
Speaker 10: but this has to be a painful moment for the
Speaker 10: Biden family. Joe Biden is someone who spent five decades
Speaker 10: in Washington working toward the goal becoming president. He finally
Speaker 10: achieves echo in twenty twenty. And you know, he obviously
Speaker 10: accomplished a lot help defeat Donald Trump, but his uh,
Speaker 10: his presidency is going to end in one term against
Speaker 10: and amid a lot of recriminations from fellow Democrats and
Speaker 10: friends to get out.
Speaker 4: Jordan Fabian, thank you so much, your White House correspondent.
Speaker 3: You're listening to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. I'm
Speaker 3: David Dura with Tom Keane and Joe Matthew plenty ahead
Speaker 3: this he's bloom