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Speaker 1: What's up, guys? How are you welcome into a championship

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Speaker 1: Sunday episode of the Daily Juice podcast. My name is

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Speaker 1: Matt Perrelt. You guys can follow me across all of

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Speaker 1: my socials at Sports Talk Matt, and this is the

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Speaker 1: first of two times you will get me today talking

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Speaker 1: about the AFC and NFC championship games. This the recorded

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Speaker 1: version of the Daily Juice. The live version will hit

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Speaker 1: you with myself and Andrew Rickson were hitting you at

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Speaker 1: noon Eastern time, even though kickoffs at three pm Eastern

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Speaker 1: Time for the first game Eagles and the Commanders. We

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Speaker 1: got this and then we got an hour or forty

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Speaker 1: five minutes or so with Andrew Rickson and myself live

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Speaker 1: on the Betting Pros YouTube channel. Go and find it

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Speaker 1: and subscribe to our YouTube channel and hit the little

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Speaker 1: bell and you guys will be alerted when we go

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Speaker 1: live to break down all the picks, plays and props.

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Speaker 1: That's where you'll get my props on the live stream.

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Speaker 1: I got a bunch of prop bets I got coming

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Speaker 1: at you for a couple of these games. It's our

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Speaker 1: last double day of football of the twenty four twenty

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Speaker 1: five season. We'll go out with the bang. We'll have

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Speaker 1: a bunch of options, a bunch of bets. We'll have

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Speaker 1: some fun here as we'll close out what has been

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Speaker 1: a very successful NFL season for the Daily Juice podcast.

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Speaker 1: And it's amazing that we're going to get ourselves all

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Speaker 1: the way to the super Bowl here coming up in

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Speaker 1: two weeks in New Orleans the NFL. For us, we're

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Speaker 1: up a couple of units in the NFL here in

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty four are in twenty five. Rather in twenty

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Speaker 1: four we were up over almost eleven units, so we're dealing.

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Speaker 1: We're about up fourteen or so units in NFL football

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Speaker 1: here for this season and last season, so I guess

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Speaker 1: at the end of last year heading into this year.

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Speaker 1: So it does have January so last year's playoffs on

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Speaker 1: last year's record, but for the most part, it's this season.

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Speaker 1: We've had a very good prop season. We've had a

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Speaker 1: very good regular season and playoffs for us here into

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Speaker 1: the NFL, so we got that coming at you. We'll

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Speaker 1: look to finish strong here with two games here today

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Speaker 1: on Sunday. But last night, unfortunately, our first losing night

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Speaker 1: in a while, we go down one point three units.

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Speaker 1: I learned a tough lesson. You guys. Reminded me, Matt,

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Speaker 1: why aren't you just betting money line money line Texas cashed.

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Speaker 1: I bet Providence minus one and a half and I

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Speaker 1: didn't want to lay out. You know, I put a

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Speaker 1: lot of bets out yesterday, so I was I was stupidly.

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Speaker 1: It was dumb. Shouldn't have bet Texas money line or

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Speaker 1: one and a half. Should have bet money line Houston. Wrong.

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Speaker 1: Wrong half. They played great the second half, not good

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Speaker 1: in the first half. They won in overtime at Kansas,

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Speaker 1: so they took care of business there. That should have

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Speaker 1: been a full game. That a first half. We missed

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Speaker 1: on that. Florida destroyed Georgia, huge win for them all.

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Speaker 1: Miss did not play well on the road. They lost

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Speaker 1: their game, never really was in it. Again, it's Missouri.

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Speaker 1: So one in three down two point three units for

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Speaker 1: the day. That means that we took a little hit here,

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Speaker 1: but it's nowhere near meaning that we're gonna wind up

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Speaker 1: having a losing week. We've had a very good week

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Speaker 1: going for us, so we'll have a winning week. It's

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Speaker 1: a matter of can we end the week out in

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Speaker 1: a really strong way here for us? On a Sunday.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna give you some trends here. The Action Network

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Speaker 1: does an incredible job. Our guy, Evan Abrams doesn't did

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Speaker 1: an incredible job. So we're gonna run through some trends

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Speaker 1: for both games. Then I'm gonna tell you how I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna bet this. I'm taking a shot. Okay, I'm telling

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Speaker 1: you right now, I'm trying to thread the needle. It's

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Speaker 1: the last game, last games of the season, so I

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Speaker 1: think it's fun to do this. It may blow up

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Speaker 1: in my face, but I think it's fun to do

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Speaker 1: this because we have some options to jump on in.

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Speaker 1: Let's start here with the first game, and let's start

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Speaker 1: with Jalen Hurts and the Commander's Eagles Commanders. This number,

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Speaker 1: I would be surprised if this number moves much more

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Speaker 1: than it has. Okay, it's been six, it's been steadily

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Speaker 1: six totals forty seven hasn't really moved. Don't expect it

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Speaker 1: to move very much. Some interesting things here for this

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Speaker 1: Commander's team. This team is on the road again, and

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Speaker 1: that has been really bad for teams on the road

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Speaker 1: for four consecutive weeks. It doesn't happen all that often

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Speaker 1: to be on the road for four consecutive weeks. But

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Speaker 1: this is this the eighth time that it's happening. Going

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Speaker 1: from the end of the regular season into the playoffs.

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Speaker 1: The previous teams are oh to seven and one, five

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Speaker 1: and one ATS. That is not good. Okay, there's definitely

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Speaker 1: something with to be concerned about, something that they're worry

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Speaker 1: about here about being on the road for so long.

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Speaker 1: Really hard to do. Eighth playoff team since two thousand,

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Speaker 1: entering the playoffs on a fourth game or later of

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Speaker 1: a road trip. Oh to seven one, five and one ATS.

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Speaker 1: The Eagles are the tenth team to play four or

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Speaker 1: more consecutive home games entering the conference championship over the

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Speaker 1: last twenty years. The previous nine went seven and two

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Speaker 1: straight up five and four ATS, so that's not great.

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Speaker 1: The Commanders are owning a seven game straight up win streak,

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Speaker 1: their longest streak since twenty thirteen, when they lost in

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Speaker 1: the playoffs to the Seahawks. Overall, fifteen teams have entered

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Speaker 1: a conference championship game on a seven games straight up

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Speaker 1: win streak since two thousand and four. Those teams are

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Speaker 1: four and eleven ATS, failing to cover by over four points.

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Speaker 1: That's not good. Jalen Hurts has been absolutely tremendous. Now

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Speaker 1: you can say Jalen Hurts may not be healthy, Matt,

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Speaker 1: and I'll give you that. Jalen Hurts may not be healthy.

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Speaker 1: So that's definitely a worry here. But Jalen Hurts has

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Speaker 1: been really really good at home. Jalen Hurts has been

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Speaker 1: really really effective in these playoffs, and he's it's like

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Speaker 1: he's impossible to beat, but he's kind of impossible to beat.

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Speaker 1: Four playoff games so far for him at home, four

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Speaker 1: and oh straight up, three and one ats. He's nine

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Speaker 1: to two straight up at home in games against the

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Speaker 1: NFC East when he's the quarterback of the Eagles. His

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Speaker 1: two losses have both come against Washington. Tyler Heineke and

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Speaker 1: Alex Smith beat him. Can Jalen Daniels do it again? Maybe?

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Speaker 1: But eh, I don't know. Road fatigue for playoffs. In

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Speaker 1: the last twenty years in the divisional round, later team's

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Speaker 1: playing a consecutive road game or more are just twenty

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Speaker 1: two and forty five straight up. That's bad news for

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Speaker 1: the Commanders. And when the game is played inside the

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Speaker 1: division they're five and six straight up. Seventeen and thirty

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Speaker 1: nine outsides. That's good news for the Commanders. Commanders have

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Speaker 1: extra rest in this spot. Fifteen and forty one st

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Speaker 1: right up for teams on normal or short rest. On

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Speaker 1: extra rest, they're seven and four straight up, six and

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Speaker 1: four straight up as underdogs, Okay, I think Eagles win

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Speaker 1: this game. I think Eagles win this game between seven

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Speaker 1: and ten points. Okay. I think the Eagles are going

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Speaker 1: to be able to run the ball. There's some injuries

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Speaker 1: on the defensive line for the Commanders. I know everyone's

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Speaker 1: in love with Jayden Daniels. I think this game is

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Speaker 1: going to be a bit more high scoring than people think.

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Speaker 1: I think the Commanders will be able to move the football.

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Speaker 1: I think they'll be able to score. But I think

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Speaker 1: at the end of the day, I think the Eagles

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Speaker 1: defense will make enough plays in special teams or defense

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Speaker 1: to turn the football over. Look this is a crazy stat,

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Speaker 1: but the four teams that are left in the playoffs

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Speaker 1: are fifteen to oh in the turnover margin. Not one

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Speaker 1: of the teams here left has turned the football over

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Speaker 1: in the playoffs. Whoever loses the turnover battle most likely

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Speaker 1: will be out. If you tie one to one or

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Speaker 1: two to two, maybe it's a wall, but I think

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Speaker 1: for Washington they cannot have any turnovers. If they turn

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Speaker 1: the football over, if they fumble like the Rams did,

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Speaker 1: they make key mistakes, they could get run out a

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Speaker 1: lay the six points Eagles minus six for one point

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Speaker 1: one units. However, I don't think the Eagles win this

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Speaker 1: game by more than ten points. I think there's value

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Speaker 1: here in teasing this and doing the same game teaser

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Speaker 1: and going and taking the Commanders from minus six from

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Speaker 1: plus six to plus twelve, then take the total from

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Speaker 1: forty seven and a half or forty seven and pulling

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Speaker 1: it down to forty one or forty one and a

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Speaker 1: half and going over. It's a correlated play. If the

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Speaker 1: Commanders are in the game, the game's going to go over.

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Speaker 1: Like the first matchup, sorry, like the second matchup, in

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Speaker 1: which they won thirty six to thirty three. In the

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Speaker 1: first matchup, they scored a garbage touchdown late in that

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Speaker 1: game to make it look more attractive, but that was

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Speaker 1: pretty much all Eagles, even but Jalen Hurt's getting hurt

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Speaker 1: in the first quarter and Kenny Pickett coming in. It

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Speaker 1: was pretty much all Eagles defensively. It was all Eagles,

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Speaker 1: so for that matter, I think the Eagles win, the

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Speaker 1: game probably goes under. So it's an Eagles play with

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Speaker 1: the under, but the Commanders are in it. Give them

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Speaker 1: plus twelve, pull it down and go over. Okay, I

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Speaker 1: still think there's a shot that even with the Eagles

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Speaker 1: winning and covering, the game might go over. If the

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Speaker 1: Eagles turn the ball over a lot and get a

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Speaker 1: lot of easy touchdowns, we could go over forty one

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Speaker 1: and a half, not over forty seven, but over forty one.

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Speaker 1: That's possible. So two plays in the NFC Championship game,

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Speaker 1: we're going Eagles minus six and then trying to thread

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Speaker 1: the needle Commanders plus twelve same game teaser over forty

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Speaker 1: one and a half for minus one twenty one point

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Speaker 1: two units down on that one point one down on

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Speaker 1: the Eagles minus six to the AFC Championship game. And

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna do a similar thing here for this Bill's

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Speaker 1: and the Chiefs. How about this? In the playoffs, Mahomes

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Speaker 1: faced Josh Allen three times three and oh straight up

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Speaker 1: three and oh against the spread, covering by an average

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Speaker 1: of over six points per game. The over is also

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Speaker 1: three and oh. In these matchups between the Bills and

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Speaker 1: the Chiefs. During the regular season, Mahomes is one in

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Speaker 1: four against the number against Josh Allen. Mahomes has lost

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Speaker 1: four in a row in the regular season against the Bills,

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Speaker 1: both straight up and ATS. It's wild, but we get

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Speaker 1: to the playoffs and the Bills are a different team.

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Speaker 1: Mahomes unextended rest is really good, like we know when

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Speaker 1: they have extended rest. Mahomes is thirty two and seven

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Speaker 1: straight up nineteen nineteen and one ATS, six and one

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Speaker 1: straight up, five and two ATS in weeks one four

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Speaker 1: combined thirty eight and thirty eight and eight straight up

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Speaker 1: and twenty four to twenty one and one ATS on

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Speaker 1: extended rest, I mean an extended rest during the season.

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Speaker 1: Mahomes since twenty nineteen has been tremendous. Just tremendous in

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Speaker 1: the postseason and tremendous in the playoffs. In the regular season,

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Speaker 1: Mahomes is thirteen and three straight up and eleven five

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Speaker 1: and five in freezing temperatures, including nine and one straight

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Speaker 1: up and seven and three at home. When Josh Allen,

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Speaker 1: who has played twenty one games in freezing temperatures, Josh

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Speaker 1: Allen's pretty good too, seventeen and four straight up fifteen

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Speaker 1: and two at home, but just two and two straight

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Speaker 1: up on the road because it's not that often that

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Speaker 1: they play on the road. On this As we've talked about,

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Speaker 1: the Chiefs thrive in the revenge mode and that's really

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Speaker 1: really tough. You hate talk about officiating, but Cleate Blakeman

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Speaker 1: is officiating this game. In nineteen games in which he's

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Speaker 1: officiated Mahomes and Allen, the over is thirteen and six

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Speaker 1: in those games seven and four Mahomes, six and two

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Speaker 1: for Allen. In the twenty six losses in his NFL

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Speaker 1: career for Patrick Mahomes, his five losses with Clik Blakeman

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Speaker 1: as the official or the most by any referee, which

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Speaker 1: is crazy because Cliete Blakeman is a Chief fan. Just FYI,

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Speaker 1: I know Cleete Blakeman. Cliete Blakeman is an Omaha lawyer.

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Speaker 1: I spend time with Clik Blakeman when he did media

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Speaker 1: when he was a Big twelve referee. Cleet is a

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Speaker 1: really really good guy. Okay, Clite Blakeman is a tremendous dude,

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Speaker 1: great family man, really really nice guy. But he's he

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Speaker 1: grew up a Chief fan. He grew up in Omaha.

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Speaker 1: He's a chief fan, so he puts his fandom aside.

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Speaker 1: But it's amazing that Mahomes has five losses. Nineteen percent

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Speaker 1: of his losses have come with Cleete Blakeman as the official.

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Speaker 1: It's the most for any referee. He's six and five

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Speaker 1: straight up in those games that he's a referee. Of

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Speaker 1: the eleven games he's been in twenty twenty four, road

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Speaker 1: teams had eleven straight up wins with Cliete Blakeman refereeing.

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Speaker 1: That's tied for the most officials, most of any official.

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Speaker 1: So if you're looking for some you know, situations there

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Speaker 1: night game favor the favorites. Favorites in night games are

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Speaker 1: forty two, seven and twelve during the regular season, best

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Speaker 1: of any marks in nineteen seventy one. In the playoffs, though,

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Speaker 1: favorites and night games are one in four straight up,

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Speaker 1: having lost four in a row since the Ravens beat

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Speaker 1: the Steelers in the first night game of the postseason.

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Speaker 1: So what are we doing with this game? Huh, same thing.

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Speaker 1: But I'm gonna go money line. I'm gonna learn my

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Speaker 1: lesson from yesterday and I'm not gonna play around with

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Speaker 1: the point spread. We're gonna Chiefs money line at minus

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Speaker 1: one twenty five for one point twenty five units. Then

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Speaker 1: we'll take the two, we'll add six, it will go

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Speaker 1: bills plus eight. We'll tease it up to fifty four

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Speaker 1: and a half, and we'll go under. There's a good

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Speaker 1: shot this thing lands fifty two, fifty three, maybe in

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Speaker 1: fifty four. Okay, those are all key numbers for totals.

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Speaker 1: I don't think we're seeing like a Ravens Bengals type

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Speaker 1: game here where both teams are going up and down

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Speaker 1: and scoring at will. But I do think we're gonna

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Speaker 1: see some offense in these games. But I don't think

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Speaker 1: we go over fifty four and a half. You can

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Speaker 1: go the other way. You can pull it down and

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Speaker 1: go over if you want. I'm just not so sure.

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Speaker 1: With the freeing temperatures and how well these teams know

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Speaker 1: each other, I don't know. Maybe we see a lower

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Speaker 1: scoring game because of that, but maybe over forty seven,

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Speaker 1: but under the teaser of fifty four and a half.

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Speaker 1: So maybe there we kind of thread the needle there

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Speaker 1: as well. But that's how I'm gonna play this here

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Speaker 1: for today. I will have player props coming at you

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Speaker 1: guys later today on the live stream but for today,

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Speaker 1: Eagles minus six for one point one units, Washington plus

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Speaker 1: twelve over forty one and a half for one point

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Speaker 1: two units. That's a same game teaser KC money line

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Speaker 1: at minus one twenty five and the Bills and Bills

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Speaker 1: plus eight and the under fifty four and a half. Okay,

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Speaker 1: Bills win our case, wins by three, by four somewhere

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Speaker 1: in that range, and the game goes under, or good

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Speaker 1: Eagles win by seven to ten and the game goes over.

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Speaker 1: We're good. We could win all four of these bets.

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Speaker 1: All four of these bets could also lose. That's possible

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Speaker 1: because of the totals coming in. So I'm not saying

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Speaker 1: this might not blow up in my face. But we've

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Speaker 1: done well here in January, done well in the NFL.

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Speaker 1: Let's press our luck here a little bit and have

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Speaker 1: some fun and prop bets hopefully can come in as

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Speaker 1: well and pick up any juice issues that we might have.

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Speaker 1: At least three prop bets, maybe even four prop bets.

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Speaker 1: I'll have for you guys coming up on the live

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Speaker 1: stream at noon Eastern time nine am Pacific time with

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Speaker 1: myself and Andrew Rickson. I will talk to you then.

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Speaker 1: My name is Matt Parolt. You guys can follow me

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Speaker 1: across all of my socials at Sports Talking Matt every morning.

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Speaker 1: It is the Daily Juice podcast.