WEBVTT - NFC Over/Under Win Predictions (Ep. 54) 0:00:13.880 --> 0:00:17.160 Hey there, everybody. Welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL Podcast. 0:00:17.200 --> 0:00:18.680 I'm your host, Dan Harris. 0:00:19.560 --> 0:00:20.079 Excuse me. 0:00:20.120 --> 0:00:22.080 You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris. Adie 0:00:22.120 --> 0:00:25.040 with me is Matt Parole, host of the Daily Juice podcast. 0:00:25.040 --> 0:00:27.200 You can find him on Twitter at Sports Talk Matt. 0:00:27.280 --> 0:00:28.160 Matt. What's going on? 0:00:28.680 --> 0:00:31.280 Well, we are rapidly approaching the start of the NFL season, 0:00:31.360 --> 0:00:34.879 so I am extremely excited that we actually can talk football, 0:00:34.920 --> 0:00:37.880 and not just hypothetical football, but real football, real soon 0:00:37.880 --> 0:00:38.560 around the corner. 0:00:38.800 --> 0:00:40.559 I kind of felt like this was never gonna come, 0:00:40.760 --> 0:00:43.120 like agree so far away, and then you know, you 0:00:43.159 --> 0:00:45.199 obviously had all the health concerns and stuff like that. 0:00:45.280 --> 0:00:48.400 But all of a sudden, we've got NHL playoffs, we've 0:00:48.400 --> 0:00:51.120 got NBA playoffs, we've got MLB, and now we're gonna 0:00:51.159 --> 0:00:53.000 have NFL and it's gonna be a little bit like 0:00:53.000 --> 0:00:53.680 sports Mecca. 0:00:53.720 --> 0:00:54.400 You know what I'm saying. 0:00:54.520 --> 0:00:56.360 It's really neat. It's really fun when you throw in 0:00:56.440 --> 0:00:58.720 the PGA to what we saw for the playoffs for 0:00:58.720 --> 0:01:01.080 the now come up with the tour champion and yeah, 0:01:01.320 --> 0:01:03.520 I mean in terms of how bad things were in 0:01:03.880 --> 0:01:06.520 April and May, where we are now, I've been trying 0:01:06.560 --> 0:01:09.039 to remind myself and everybody around me, like, let's stick 0:01:09.040 --> 0:01:11.440 a second here and acknowledge what we've got going on 0:01:11.520 --> 0:01:14.559 right now, because yes, twenty twenty is a horrible year, 0:01:14.880 --> 0:01:17.560 but we will never ever see anything like this in 0:01:17.640 --> 0:01:20.440 terms of the month of August and September. In October again, 0:01:20.720 --> 0:01:24.560 I mean college football, NFL football, all the other playoffs 0:01:24.560 --> 0:01:27.280 going on at the same time. It's quite a remarkable time. 0:01:27.720 --> 0:01:29.640 Just makes things seem a little easier when we have 0:01:29.760 --> 0:01:31.880 something else to focus on. So let's get into it. 0:01:31.959 --> 0:01:34.040 Last week we did the AFC preview. Today we are 0:01:34.040 --> 0:01:35.800 going to do the NFC preview, and the next week 0:01:35.840 --> 0:01:36.800 we are into the season. 0:01:37.160 --> 0:01:38.600 We've got an exciting. 0:01:38.200 --> 0:01:39.680 Program that we're going to be giving you, but we'll 0:01:39.720 --> 0:01:42.320 talk about that more next week. As usual, we are 0:01:42.319 --> 0:01:45.080 going to be using the consensus over under win totals 0:01:45.120 --> 0:01:48.240 over at bettingpros dot com. Those are the aggregate of 0:01:48.280 --> 0:01:49.960 the odds that are available in the market. As always, 0:01:50.000 --> 0:01:52.120 you can see the various sportsbooks, so if you like 0:01:52.200 --> 0:01:54.280 one over the other, you can certainly shop around for 0:01:54.320 --> 0:01:55.600 the best odds, but we're going to be using the 0:01:55.640 --> 0:01:58.000 consensus odds that are listed right now. You can find 0:01:58.000 --> 0:02:01.400 those of ourt Betting Pros dot Com NFL wins. Now, 0:02:01.400 --> 0:02:05.080 before we get into it, DraftKings is giving you the 0:02:05.120 --> 0:02:08.480 most ridiculous bet in the history of mankind. Matt knows 0:02:08.480 --> 0:02:11.720 about this. I have already taken advantage of it. DraftKings, 0:02:11.720 --> 0:02:14.640 thankfully is my sportsbook in New Hampshire. The Chiefs are 0:02:14.680 --> 0:02:18.280 laying ten points against the Texans on opening night. Go 0:02:18.400 --> 0:02:22.840 to the following link Bettingpros dot Com slash Chiefs one 0:02:22.880 --> 0:02:24.799 oh one. Okay, I'm going to say that a couple 0:02:24.800 --> 0:02:26.959 of times so you don't miss it. Bettingpros dot Com slash. 0:02:26.800 --> 0:02:27.600 Chiefs one oh one. 0:02:27.880 --> 0:02:29.840 When you do, you are going to be eligible to 0:02:29.919 --> 0:02:33.400 place a wager on the Chiefs and the Texans, with 0:02:33.480 --> 0:02:37.160 the Chiefs getting one hundred and one points. If the 0:02:37.280 --> 0:02:41.440 Texans beat the Chiefs one hundred to zero, you win 0:02:41.560 --> 0:02:45.360 your bet. That is available to all users from now 0:02:45.680 --> 0:02:49.639 until kickoff eight twenty on Thursday September tenth. Maximum bet 0:02:49.720 --> 0:02:51.880 of fifty dollars here. Okay, but the odds are boosted 0:02:51.919 --> 0:02:54.080 to just minus one ten, so it's essentially a free 0:02:54.120 --> 0:02:56.680 forty five dollars If you're going to go in unless again, 0:02:56.760 --> 0:02:58.880 I apologize that the Texans win one hundred and two 0:02:59.040 --> 0:03:00.880 to nothing, but I feel pretty confident in it. 0:03:01.440 --> 0:03:01.720 Again. 0:03:02.080 --> 0:03:05.000 One hundred and one points, that's not normal. Go ahead, 0:03:05.000 --> 0:03:07.919 it's free money. Take at Bettingpros dot com slash Chiefs 0:03:07.919 --> 0:03:09.760 one o one. That's going to take you there. You'll 0:03:09.760 --> 0:03:13.160 see it under the rewards promotions page. Select casey plus 0:03:13.160 --> 0:03:16.120 one oh one one qualifying offer per user. As I said, 0:03:16.120 --> 0:03:19.160 maximum of a fifty dollars wager. That's available in Pennsylvania, 0:03:19.200 --> 0:03:24.400 New Jersey, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, and West Virginia, and 0:03:24.600 --> 0:03:27.280 over here in New Hampshire. Bettingpros dot com slash Chiefs 0:03:27.320 --> 0:03:29.600 one o one. All right, Matt, Not every bet that 0:03:29.639 --> 0:03:31.440 we're going to talk about today. It's going to be 0:03:31.520 --> 0:03:32.160 quite that easy. 0:03:32.280 --> 0:03:34.359 But be a better world for us. 0:03:34.360 --> 0:03:37.240 If it were, it would be fun it was. 0:03:39.000 --> 0:03:40.520 Let's start with the NFC East here. 0:03:40.640 --> 0:03:43.720 Okay, you've got the Cowboys leaning the way it over 0:03:43.800 --> 0:03:46.680 under nine and a half. That's just heavily towards the over, 0:03:47.000 --> 0:03:49.560 the Eagles which are now over under nine, the Giants 0:03:49.560 --> 0:03:51.760 over under six, juiced a little bit towards the under, 0:03:52.000 --> 0:03:54.200 and Washington over under five. 0:03:54.160 --> 0:03:55.720 Just a little bit toward the over. 0:03:55.880 --> 0:03:58.440 So what are you thinking here as we head rapidly 0:03:58.480 --> 0:03:59.120 into the season. 0:03:59.200 --> 0:04:01.160 All right, look, I know that you're a big fantasy guy, 0:04:01.200 --> 0:04:03.640 so Saquon Barkley's gonna have a gigantic year, But I'm 0:04:03.640 --> 0:04:06.560 not a very big believer in that offense. Otherwise, not 0:04:06.720 --> 0:04:09.520 very big believer in rookie head coaches in the middle 0:04:09.600 --> 0:04:12.160 of COVID. So I've kind of taken the stance that 0:04:12.200 --> 0:04:15.040 you're gonna fade first year head coaches in this COVID 0:04:15.160 --> 0:04:17.600 year because of the lack of preparation, the lack of 0:04:17.640 --> 0:04:19.599 time to get their system in place. He has a 0:04:19.640 --> 0:04:22.400 young quarterback in Daniel Jones. I know Sakuon Barkley, but 0:04:23.000 --> 0:04:25.080 I'm pretty strong on the under here for the Giants. 0:04:25.120 --> 0:04:27.520 I think they're a five win football team at MAX 0:04:27.800 --> 0:04:30.159 and I just Joe Judge is barely I mean, I 0:04:30.160 --> 0:04:33.000 mean I'm older than Joe Judge. Okay, so he's just 0:04:33.839 --> 0:04:36.800 everybody's come out of the Patriot tree. The former coaches 0:04:36.800 --> 0:04:39.120 have not been good. Mike Frabel is a former player. 0:04:39.240 --> 0:04:41.680 Different story. I'm on the under for the Giants. 0:04:43.440 --> 0:04:46.839 So here's the thing. It's not just the new head coach. 0:04:47.080 --> 0:04:50.200 Right, it's the new offensive coordinator, right, Jason Garrett, new 0:04:50.240 --> 0:04:51.279 defensive coordinator. 0:04:51.400 --> 0:04:51.880 Bye. 0:04:51.960 --> 0:04:52.120 Right. 0:04:52.160 --> 0:04:54.839 I mean they are basically rebuilding the entire thing. That's 0:04:54.880 --> 0:04:57.159 not what you want to be doing right now with COVID. 0:04:57.160 --> 0:04:59.040 Now here's the one thing I'm gonna say. They get 0:04:59.080 --> 0:05:01.240 Washington twice. I know how you feel about Washington. If 0:05:01.240 --> 0:05:03.960 they're going to even be able to be competitive, They've. 0:05:03.720 --> 0:05:05.400 Got the Bengals in Cincinnati. 0:05:05.400 --> 0:05:07.239 We don't expect the Bengals to be very good. They've 0:05:07.279 --> 0:05:10.160 got you know, maybe the Cardinals at home. Maybe you 0:05:10.160 --> 0:05:11.680 want to give them that if you're not that excited, 0:05:11.720 --> 0:05:14.200 but you look at the rest of their of their 0:05:14.720 --> 0:05:17.840 you know, schedule, They've got to find three more wins 0:05:17.880 --> 0:05:20.240 to hit the over and they've got the Ravens, you know, 0:05:20.360 --> 0:05:23.560 the Bears in Chicago, the Rams in Los Angeles, Seattle 0:05:23.600 --> 0:05:25.840 and Seattle, the Bucks, the Steelers, the Browns, the forty 0:05:25.920 --> 0:05:28.200 nine Ers, the Bear, you know, the Bears we talked about. 0:05:28.960 --> 0:05:31.080 I don't really know where those wins are going to 0:05:31.120 --> 0:05:32.640 come from, you know that that's really the thing. 0:05:32.680 --> 0:05:33.120 They've got a. 0:05:33.120 --> 0:05:36.039 Brutal opener too, right, a brutal opening schedule where they're 0:05:36.040 --> 0:05:38.400 going to hit a bunch of tough defenses. So this 0:05:38.520 --> 0:05:40.719 is a team where I agree that, you know, if 0:05:40.760 --> 0:05:42.080 I have to go one side or the other, I'll 0:05:42.120 --> 0:05:44.920 go the other. I don't hate the offense generally speaking, 0:05:44.960 --> 0:05:46.560 coming in. I mean they've they've done some stuff with 0:05:46.600 --> 0:05:49.960 the offensive line. I kind of like Jones for the future. 0:05:50.040 --> 0:05:52.279 You know, they have weapons with Saquon, they've got the 0:05:52.279 --> 0:05:55.520 three receivers, they've got Evan Ingram, So it's possible that 0:05:55.520 --> 0:05:57.200 they're going to surprise. But I agree, you look at 0:05:57.200 --> 0:05:59.920 that schedule. I really don't see how they're going to 0:05:59.960 --> 0:06:02.160 be able to get to seven wins overall. Let me 0:06:02.160 --> 0:06:04.800 ask you about the Eagles, because the Eagles obviously are 0:06:04.880 --> 0:06:07.880 now you know, they're well coached. Of course, we know 0:06:07.960 --> 0:06:09.880 they were I believe at nine and a half at 0:06:10.000 --> 0:06:12.960 earlier in the offseason. They're down to nine. They we 0:06:13.080 --> 0:06:15.120 talked about the Chargers. I teased you a little bit 0:06:15.120 --> 0:06:17.320 because you know, you countered my what about the Chargers 0:06:17.320 --> 0:06:20.320 with they're like a legitimately cursed team because. 0:06:20.080 --> 0:06:22.599 They get what about the Eagles. 0:06:22.680 --> 0:06:25.359 I mean, you know we've got Miles Sanders. Let's assume 0:06:25.400 --> 0:06:26.920 you know the word is he's you know it was 0:06:26.960 --> 0:06:30.080 a vague lower body injury, but it's apparently a hamstring. 0:06:30.120 --> 0:06:32.560 He's reportedly supposed to be okay and good to go. 0:06:33.080 --> 0:06:36.400 Let's assume he's fine. Let's assume Carson Wentz is fine 0:06:36.400 --> 0:06:38.719 because he's also dealing with some sort of soft tissue injury. 0:06:38.800 --> 0:06:41.279 Right alson, Jeffrey is not going to play at the start. 0:06:41.320 --> 0:06:43.000 He may avoid the publics, but he's not going to 0:06:43.080 --> 0:06:45.400 play to start the season. Jalen Rager is going to. 0:06:45.400 --> 0:06:47.360 Miss a few gate games. At least. 0:06:47.480 --> 0:06:50.360 They've already got two massive injuries to their offensive line 0:06:50.360 --> 0:06:51.839 with Brandon Brooks and Andre Dillard. 0:06:52.279 --> 0:06:54.479 How do you feel about them at over under nine? 0:06:56.080 --> 0:06:57.760 If I had to bet it, I would bet the 0:06:57.920 --> 0:07:00.760 under because I think this entire division it's probably a 0:07:00.839 --> 0:07:03.520 nine win team at max. I think this is just 0:07:03.520 --> 0:07:07.080 a typical NFC East type of year where everyone's gonna 0:07:07.120 --> 0:07:09.880 hover around seven and nine, eight and eight and nine 0:07:09.920 --> 0:07:12.800 and seven. I don't love I mean, Doug Peterson had 0:07:12.800 --> 0:07:16.360 one great year. Outside of that, I mean, let's just 0:07:16.400 --> 0:07:18.840 be honest here, they haven't been that great. Carson Wentz 0:07:18.880 --> 0:07:21.680 has not lived up to the hype, and I don't 0:07:21.680 --> 0:07:24.720 know really what this team looks like from an injury standpoint, 0:07:24.760 --> 0:07:26.360 So if I had to bet it, I would bet 0:07:26.360 --> 0:07:28.720 the under. I don't like any of these teams, to 0:07:28.760 --> 0:07:30.560 be quite honest, I don't like the Cowboys. I don't 0:07:30.600 --> 0:07:32.760 like the Eagles. I don't like the the the Washington 0:07:32.760 --> 0:07:33.400 football teams. 0:07:33.440 --> 0:07:36.440 Heuse almost cut, Yeah, you cut yourself. 0:07:36.600 --> 0:07:39.280 I just don't like any of them. I just I 0:07:39.280 --> 0:07:41.600 think this is a bad football division right now, and 0:07:41.840 --> 0:07:44.520 I think that people are just assuming that here comes 0:07:44.600 --> 0:07:46.640 Mike McCarthy and the Cowboys and they're going to be great. 0:07:46.680 --> 0:07:49.400 And I've never been a big Dak Prescott fan. I 0:07:49.800 --> 0:07:51.440 just I mean, the fact that they were even toying 0:07:51.440 --> 0:07:53.480 with the idea of paying him thirty five forty million 0:07:53.520 --> 0:07:55.800 dollars a year is insane to me. So I know 0:07:55.800 --> 0:07:58.720 people are there's a Dak segment that love him or 0:07:58.720 --> 0:08:00.800 hate him. I'm on the other side. I don't like him, 0:08:00.840 --> 0:08:03.080 So I don't like any of these win totals. To 0:08:03.080 --> 0:08:05.320 be quite honest, I would go under with the Eagles 0:08:05.320 --> 0:08:06.040 if I had to bet it. 0:08:06.240 --> 0:08:09.480 Let me ask something, If you really do view not 0:08:09.520 --> 0:08:11.960 only the Cowboys that way, but the entire division, why 0:08:12.000 --> 0:08:14.080 not be you know you're getting plus money right now, 0:08:14.120 --> 0:08:16.800 generally speaking on the Cowboys under nine and a half 0:08:16.840 --> 0:08:19.400 because they've just been you know, their America's team. As 0:08:19.440 --> 0:08:21.440 you know, there's a lot of excitement build thing. They 0:08:21.480 --> 0:08:24.200 did some you know they drafted see that are really 0:08:24.200 --> 0:08:26.720 good draft ceedee Lamb kind of fell to them. So yeah, 0:08:26.760 --> 0:08:29.280 they've got an exciting offense, and you know, McCarthy, for 0:08:29.360 --> 0:08:32.600 all his flaws, he is leaving the offensive system in 0:08:32.640 --> 0:08:35.400 place that worked so well last year under Kellen Moore. 0:08:35.480 --> 0:08:38.080 So if you do think of it that way, why 0:08:38.120 --> 0:08:40.400 aren't you kind of feeling the Cowboys under nine and 0:08:40.400 --> 0:08:42.440 a half considering that the consensus ods at the very 0:08:42.559 --> 0:08:44.280 least are plus one twenty five. 0:08:44.360 --> 0:08:46.240 Six games against the NFC East. 0:08:46.559 --> 0:08:48.719 Okay, that's why that's civil as that. 0:08:48.760 --> 0:08:51.200 Huh, because they are playing other teams in the division 0:08:51.200 --> 0:08:53.920 were bad and so if they go six to zero 0:08:53.920 --> 0:08:55.880 in their division, that's six wins and now all the 0:08:55.960 --> 0:08:58.880 needst four more wins to get over. So that that's 0:08:58.920 --> 0:09:01.280 my concern with both betting the under for the Cowboys. 0:09:01.600 --> 0:09:03.960 Is it Like I mentioned, I think the entire division's bad, 0:09:04.200 --> 0:09:07.079 So I'm concerned. I'm concerned about you know, bad teams 0:09:07.080 --> 0:09:08.720 playing bad teams, but I do think the Cowboys are 0:09:08.720 --> 0:09:11.480 probably the best of the worst. So I would shade 0:09:11.520 --> 0:09:13.640 away from going with the under there on the Cowboys. 0:09:13.640 --> 0:09:16.280 But you know, I wouldn't want to bet. If I 0:09:16.320 --> 0:09:18.080 had to bet the Cowboys, it would probably be on 0:09:18.120 --> 0:09:19.800 the over, but I wouldn't like doing it. 0:09:20.080 --> 0:09:22.280 Yeah, I have a little bit of a taste on 0:09:22.360 --> 0:09:24.720 the under just because of the plus money. Because I 0:09:24.800 --> 0:09:27.800 do think that you know, we've seen enough Division games 0:09:28.160 --> 0:09:30.640 are just unpredictable. They're not going to go six and 0:09:30.720 --> 0:09:32.560 zero in the division, right, Like, I mean, maybe they are, 0:09:32.679 --> 0:09:34.520 but no, no, I think the Eagles obviously can put 0:09:34.559 --> 0:09:34.880 up a fight. 0:09:35.240 --> 0:09:37.000 The Giants played on top. You don't know, you know, 0:09:37.000 --> 0:09:38.839 who knows what Washington is going to be. Like, I 0:09:39.120 --> 0:09:41.839 don't like Dwayne Haskins. Their defense is bad, but you know. 0:09:41.760 --> 0:09:45.360 But they're young though. Man, that defensive line. They've invested 0:09:45.360 --> 0:09:47.280 so much money in that defensive line and now they're 0:09:47.280 --> 0:09:49.600 bringing in I mean last year, I mean they had 0:09:49.640 --> 0:09:51.520 to have Number one to pick overall coming in. I mean, 0:09:51.960 --> 0:09:54.160 they've got some you know, Chase Young that, they've got 0:09:54.160 --> 0:09:57.760 some really talented defensive linemen. That defense with Ron Rivera there, 0:09:57.840 --> 0:09:59.960 I wouldn't sleep on that defense later in the year 0:10:00.160 --> 0:10:03.199 for the Washington football team because I think that And look, 0:10:03.760 --> 0:10:05.559 I don't like Haskins either, but if he falls in 0:10:05.640 --> 0:10:09.000 his face, they've got Alex Smith behind him. I mean, 0:10:09.559 --> 0:10:11.760 they could lean on a veteran. If things really go 0:10:11.880 --> 0:10:14.840 sideways and Haskins is throwing four picks a game, they 0:10:14.840 --> 0:10:16.880 can lean on Alex Smith to come in and spots 0:10:16.880 --> 0:10:18.840 start for a little bit, and it wouldn't be like 0:10:18.880 --> 0:10:21.000 he wouldn't be over his head coming in to start 0:10:21.000 --> 0:10:23.360 a game in the NFL. So talk about a crazy, 0:10:23.440 --> 0:10:26.160 unbelievable cap to that story if that guy starts one 0:10:26.200 --> 0:10:29.320 game in the NFL. So I don't hate that team. 0:10:29.400 --> 0:10:31.360 I just I think they're probably two years away. 0:10:31.360 --> 0:10:33.120 Though no, I completely agree. 0:10:33.120 --> 0:10:35.480 But again, you know, I'm more talking about them, not 0:10:35.520 --> 0:10:37.320 even with their over under, but just whether or not 0:10:37.520 --> 0:10:40.760 can they somehow show up on that game against the Cowboys, 0:10:40.760 --> 0:10:42.720 you know, at home, especially you know Ron Rivera. Let's 0:10:42.720 --> 0:10:45.960 not let's not completely discount the motivational factor Ron Vera 0:10:46.040 --> 0:10:48.280 obviously dealing with cancer. You know, the team, yeah, could 0:10:48.360 --> 0:10:51.200 rally and again it's a divisional game, you don't know necessarily, 0:10:51.240 --> 0:10:53.720 but especially we talked about new you know, they've all 0:10:53.760 --> 0:10:56.200 got new coaches basically coming in. It's not except that 0:10:56.200 --> 0:10:58.320 he goes you don't that's not what you want basically 0:10:58.400 --> 0:11:01.000 on this season. So yeah, to me, I've put a 0:11:01.040 --> 0:11:03.320 little bit, given the plus money on the Cowboys under, 0:11:03.520 --> 0:11:06.480 but you're more on the Giants under that. I don't 0:11:06.480 --> 0:11:08.120 mind that bet either. That would be the second pick. 0:11:08.200 --> 0:11:10.679 Yeah, that's I'm gonna bet that the Giant un I'll 0:11:10.720 --> 0:11:11.480 play that. I'll bet that. 0:11:11.480 --> 0:11:14.480 All right, let's move here to the NFC North. You know, 0:11:14.600 --> 0:11:18.959 you've got the Packers who won thirteen games last year, 0:11:19.000 --> 0:11:21.280 made it to the NFC Championship game with an over 0:11:21.360 --> 0:11:24.920 under of nine. It's just towards the over. Vikings also 0:11:24.920 --> 0:11:26.960 an over under of nine. That's just a little bit 0:11:26.960 --> 0:11:28.760 towards the under. The Bears at over under. 0:11:28.520 --> 0:11:30.839 Eight, and the Lions over under at seven. 0:11:30.880 --> 0:11:32.840 I see a lot of six and a half's out there, 0:11:32.920 --> 0:11:35.079 but it's you know, Lions over under seven. 0:11:35.480 --> 0:11:37.760 Anything you like here in the NFC North. 0:11:37.880 --> 0:11:40.199 All right, So, a couple of years ago, the then 0:11:40.280 --> 0:11:44.360 Oakland Raiders got incredibly lucky with one score victories, and 0:11:44.520 --> 0:11:48.760 everybody bet under the next year because regression happens things 0:11:48.800 --> 0:11:51.280 come back down to the mean. This is the same 0:11:51.280 --> 0:11:54.000 thing's gonna happen with the Packers. Yeah, the Packers had 0:11:54.080 --> 0:11:56.200 so many one score victories last year. 0:11:56.080 --> 0:11:58.560 Eight and eight to one in single possession games. 0:11:58.640 --> 0:12:01.080 They lucked their way into a couple of crazy wins 0:12:01.120 --> 0:12:03.240 against I mean, they beat the Bears what was like 0:12:03.280 --> 0:12:05.960 thirteen whatever, thirty to ten whatever. It was that ridiculous 0:12:06.000 --> 0:12:08.400 opening night game where they didn't score. And yet the 0:12:08.440 --> 0:12:11.040 Bears are quarterbacks by a pathetic quarterback, so they couldn't 0:12:11.040 --> 0:12:14.280 actually score anything. So like, I mean, I think the 0:12:14.320 --> 0:12:16.480 Packers are going to be in for a long year. 0:12:16.840 --> 0:12:19.000 They didn't invest in the wide receiving core the way 0:12:19.000 --> 0:12:20.719 that they should have. They used a first round pick 0:12:20.760 --> 0:12:23.000 on Jordan Love. They added a whole lot of drama 0:12:23.040 --> 0:12:25.040 into their locker room for no reason. I think the 0:12:25.120 --> 0:12:28.640 quarterback and the coach hate each other. Packers under nine 0:12:28.679 --> 0:12:30.520 wins is I think a very good play. 0:12:30.760 --> 0:12:33.480 Yeah, I tell you where my trouble is. And again 0:12:33.520 --> 0:12:36.000 you look at like their Bethagoray and whatever, you know, 0:12:36.040 --> 0:12:38.040 their window it was like eight and a half, right, 0:12:38.120 --> 0:12:39.960 like exactly why we talked about it last week with 0:12:40.000 --> 0:12:42.880 the Chargers right, the Chargers were terrible in one score game. 0:12:42.960 --> 0:12:45.319 Do you kind of reverse that and it goes really well? 0:12:45.320 --> 0:12:47.280 And you brought up the Raiders as well. This is 0:12:47.360 --> 0:12:47.960 really tough. 0:12:48.040 --> 0:12:51.720 I mean I completely get it. Like, I don't think 0:12:51.840 --> 0:12:55.240 I can bet under. Like I part of me thinks 0:12:55.559 --> 0:12:58.840 that Aaron Rodgers and I've used the term several times 0:12:58.840 --> 0:13:01.800 in our fantasy podcast, will give the metaphorical middle finger 0:13:01.840 --> 0:13:04.320 to everybody this year. And he doesn't really have the 0:13:04.320 --> 0:13:07.040 weapons to do so. Right, He's got Devanta Adams and 0:13:07.080 --> 0:13:09.800 then I guess his second receiver is Alan Lazard, who 0:13:09.800 --> 0:13:12.600 I like, you know you've got mbag in college, right. 0:13:13.000 --> 0:13:16.760 I mean the bottom line is he part of part 0:13:16.760 --> 0:13:18.840 of me thinks he's just gonna be so mad this 0:13:19.040 --> 0:13:21.400 entire year that he's going to kind of recapture the 0:13:21.440 --> 0:13:23.000 Fountain of youth. Now that is not the type of 0:13:23.000 --> 0:13:25.440 thing that you bet on, obviously, but it's something where 0:13:25.559 --> 0:13:26.600 man to go eight and eight. 0:13:26.720 --> 0:13:28.199 It's it's tough. 0:13:28.480 --> 0:13:32.920 It's not something that I completely love necessarily. What about 0:13:32.920 --> 0:13:35.080 the Vikings here, you know, they they've got the same 0:13:35.160 --> 0:13:37.400 over under, They've got kind of this this. You know 0:13:37.440 --> 0:13:42.000 they obviously you know Kevin Stefansi's gone, but Gary Kubiak 0:13:42.120 --> 0:13:45.200 is there. It's probably gonna be roughly the same offense. 0:13:45.200 --> 0:13:48.560 They trade away Stefan Diggs. Their defense has been a 0:13:48.640 --> 0:13:51.880 little crazy, but their defense always plays better than I 0:13:51.920 --> 0:13:55.560 feel like it should necessarily coming in Obviously, they've got 0:13:55.720 --> 0:13:58.680 Daniel Hunter and they just you know, got in Gatway, 0:13:58.800 --> 0:14:00.760 so they're kind of rebuilding. What do you think about 0:14:01.120 --> 0:14:03.080 about the Vikings over under nine? 0:14:03.200 --> 0:14:05.000 See? The reason why I would stay away from the 0:14:05.040 --> 0:14:07.600 Vikings is because if you talk to book makers and 0:14:07.640 --> 0:14:10.040 you say, okay, who gets the biggest home field advantage, 0:14:10.080 --> 0:14:12.200 who gets the biggest spike, the Vikings are one of 0:14:12.200 --> 0:14:14.079 the teams that gets nearly you know, three and a 0:14:14.120 --> 0:14:16.720 half or more in terms of what the book makers 0:14:16.760 --> 0:14:19.040 think going to Minnesota, how tough it is to play 0:14:19.160 --> 0:14:22.600 at Bank of America. So without fans being there now 0:14:22.600 --> 0:14:24.880 we're still working out what level of crowd noise you 0:14:24.920 --> 0:14:27.800 can pipe in and what right. But I think it's 0:14:27.800 --> 0:14:30.600 a huge deal that the Vikings aren't playing in front 0:14:30.640 --> 0:14:33.720 of fans, and I think that that makes their season 0:14:33.800 --> 0:14:36.240 almost unplayable because you don't know what they're gonna do. 0:14:36.320 --> 0:14:39.280 If this was a typical year, I would say they're 0:14:39.280 --> 0:14:41.880 gonna run the rock. They're gonna ask Kirk Cousins to 0:14:41.880 --> 0:14:44.200 do a little bit more each year and not have 0:14:44.320 --> 0:14:46.280 him do a ton, and he's shown that he has 0:14:46.320 --> 0:14:49.080 the ability of making big throws and making big plays. 0:14:49.400 --> 0:14:51.240 But I would stay away from this simply because I 0:14:51.280 --> 0:14:52.920 don't know what this team's gonna look like at home, 0:14:52.960 --> 0:14:55.640 and if there's no home field advantage, that number basically 0:14:55.680 --> 0:14:58.160 is set for a team that's gonna play well at home, 0:14:58.400 --> 0:14:59.920 and I'm not so sure the Vikings are gonna play 0:14:59.920 --> 0:15:00.400 well at home. 0:15:00.640 --> 0:15:02.920 Yeah, I definitely want to dive into that a little 0:15:02.920 --> 0:15:05.360 more in terms of how it affects your feelings on 0:15:05.400 --> 0:15:07.800 the over under for both the Saints and the Seahawks, 0:15:07.840 --> 0:15:10.200 two teams that you know have huge home field managers. 0:15:10.200 --> 0:15:11.040 We'll get to that in a minute. 0:15:11.320 --> 0:15:13.480 Any feeling either way, any lean either way, or just 0:15:13.520 --> 0:15:14.720 a total stay away. 0:15:14.520 --> 0:15:16.920 I would stay away. Yeah. I wouldn't go anywhere near 0:15:16.960 --> 0:15:19.040 the Vikings this year simply because I don't know what 0:15:19.040 --> 0:15:21.000 they're going to look like at home. And nine is 0:15:21.040 --> 0:15:23.320 a difficult number, because you talked about that last week 0:15:23.360 --> 0:15:25.440 talking about the AFC. The ten is really difficult. Ten 0:15:25.480 --> 0:15:27.600 and six is a hard number to get to and 0:15:27.720 --> 0:15:30.240 going nine and seven, or you know, maybe you bet 0:15:30.240 --> 0:15:31.520 it and you hope to get a push on it. 0:15:31.560 --> 0:15:33.080 If you bet the over and you hope to you know, 0:15:33.200 --> 0:15:36.120 hope they win nine. But I just again, without knowing 0:15:36.120 --> 0:15:37.720 what their home field is, they're going to look like 0:15:37.760 --> 0:15:40.280 their home field performances will look like. I don't think 0:15:40.280 --> 0:15:42.640 you can accurately gauge what a Viking year will look 0:15:42.680 --> 0:15:43.160 like this year. 0:15:43.520 --> 0:15:46.240 Yeah, how about the other two teams? Any lean whatsoever? 0:15:46.320 --> 0:15:47.600 You get the Bears at over under eight. 0:15:47.640 --> 0:15:49.560 Now from what I saw, if I remember correctly, I'm 0:15:49.600 --> 0:15:51.400 trying to look back at my older notes, I think 0:15:51.400 --> 0:15:52.680 they might have been at eight and a half at 0:15:52.760 --> 0:15:55.240 one point. I think money came in on the under. 0:15:55.360 --> 0:15:57.720 The Lions have kind of bounced back and forth between 0:15:57.760 --> 0:15:59.840 six and a half and seven. They're kind of a 0:16:00.080 --> 0:16:03.200 frisky team, given that their offense at least really opened 0:16:03.200 --> 0:16:05.320 it up last year before Matthew Stafford got hurt. They 0:16:05.320 --> 0:16:07.080 were in all those games in the beginning of the 0:16:07.080 --> 0:16:08.800 season before I went down. Do you have any lean 0:16:08.840 --> 0:16:10.720 either ran the Bears over under eight or the Lions. 0:16:10.800 --> 0:16:12.960 Let's call it over under seven. That's the consensusize, but 0:16:13.040 --> 0:16:14.600 there are plenty of six and a half's out there 0:16:14.640 --> 0:16:16.560 any meaning on either of those totals. 0:16:16.640 --> 0:16:20.400 If you want to trail the professional money, the professional 0:16:20.400 --> 0:16:23.080 money is on the Detroit Lions. There is a ton 0:16:23.280 --> 0:16:26.680 of hype in the professional betting circles on this new offense, 0:16:27.040 --> 0:16:29.160 the arm of Matthew Stafford, and like you mentioned, a 0:16:29.160 --> 0:16:31.400 bunch of one score games they lost last year. So 0:16:31.800 --> 0:16:35.520 the over on the Lions is an extremely popular play 0:16:35.600 --> 0:16:38.320 here in Vegas with the professional sports gamblers to put 0:16:38.360 --> 0:16:40.120 up at least an eight and eight season, And frankly, 0:16:40.120 --> 0:16:42.680