WEBVTT - Chuck's Commentary - Trump Makes Headlines… but No Movement + 0:00:04.720 --> 0:00:08.040 Happy Monday. Welcome to another episode of the Chuck Podcast. 0:00:08.080 --> 0:00:09.640 I have to tell you I have a little extra 0:00:10.160 --> 0:00:12.840 bouncing my step because we just had a weekend of 0:00:13.039 --> 0:00:18.560 meaningful football. Okay, I am a college football fanatic. I 0:00:18.600 --> 0:00:21.800 love these first two weeks where college football gets center stage. 0:00:22.160 --> 0:00:27.040 Week zero. Literally, I'll watch anything. I watch some fcs, 0:00:27.080 --> 0:00:29.880 I will watch all of it. Kansas State Iowa State, 0:00:29.920 --> 0:00:31.840 of course, was the best game of the day. But 0:00:32.720 --> 0:00:35.360 Stanford Hawaii, right, you got to go all day long. 0:00:35.400 --> 0:00:37.560 It's just nice to have football back. So that put 0:00:37.600 --> 0:00:41.720 me in a good mood after what was an excruciating 0:00:42.520 --> 0:00:46.239 time dropping off my youngest at college. I don't want 0:00:46.280 --> 0:00:48.920 to go through the specifics. It's not fair to him. 0:00:48.920 --> 0:00:52.040 But let's just say that this is it's as hard 0:00:52.080 --> 0:00:54.920 as everybody will tell you that it is. And then 0:00:55.080 --> 0:01:00.360 some if you've this was my second time, you know, 0:01:00.400 --> 0:01:04.559 it's funny when you know you still have another child 0:01:04.640 --> 0:01:08.160 at home, there's sort of one set of emotions. When 0:01:08.200 --> 0:01:11.360 suddenly it's empty, it's a whole new set of emotions. 0:01:11.440 --> 0:01:17.800 So but I will I will spare you some of that. 0:01:18.000 --> 0:01:23.080 But let's just say that a good distraction from my 0:01:23.240 --> 0:01:28.480 glumness and me missing my son. Is the start of 0:01:28.600 --> 0:01:31.679 college football season, that's for sure, and which sort of 0:01:31.720 --> 0:01:33.920 brings me here we are. We're in August. I know 0:01:33.959 --> 0:01:36.480 some of you think college football shouldn't start in August. 0:01:36.480 --> 0:01:39.039 It should start, you know, first of September. But here 0:01:39.080 --> 0:01:42.400 we are. That's what it is. And it gets me 0:01:42.520 --> 0:01:44.520 to my theme that I want to jump in on. 0:01:44.600 --> 0:01:46.760 By the way, my guest later today. The guest is 0:01:46.880 --> 0:01:49.840 Jonathan Martin of Politico, and Jonathan and I have known 0:01:49.880 --> 0:01:54.320 each other longer than this century. I it goes past 0:01:54.400 --> 0:01:58.240 the twenty first. We've been friends, colleagues, and then some 0:01:58.760 --> 0:02:04.800 going back to the nineties. We regularly have conversations and 0:02:04.840 --> 0:02:07.120 sometimes we put them on camera and put them on tape, 0:02:07.120 --> 0:02:10.560 and that's essentially what my Monday episode with him is. 0:02:10.560 --> 0:02:12.760 So I hope, I know if you're a political junkie, 0:02:13.240 --> 0:02:16.480 you will enjoy the conversation. And if you like you're 0:02:16.680 --> 0:02:18.720 a little taste of college football on the side, I 0:02:18.800 --> 0:02:20.680 think you'll also enjoy it as well. But we hit 0:02:20.720 --> 0:02:23.480 the gambit. We were all over the place, whether it's Trump, 0:02:23.760 --> 0:02:26.360 whether it's the Democrats, whether it's the primary calendar in 0:02:26.400 --> 0:02:29.560 twenty eight elections in twenty five, the midterms in twenty 0:02:29.560 --> 0:02:33.160 six we covered the entire tapestry of things, But let 0:02:33.200 --> 0:02:35.200 me get started. One of the topics I actually did 0:02:35.200 --> 0:02:42.280 have a conversation with him on was in reaction to 0:02:42.280 --> 0:02:44.680 to what I want to talk about today. Because for 0:02:44.760 --> 0:02:47.120 most of my thirty five years here in Washington, I 0:02:47.120 --> 0:02:51.520 got here in nineteen ninety. August has always been the 0:02:51.560 --> 0:02:54.799 slowest month of the year, right, slower even than December, 0:02:54.880 --> 0:02:57.320 right because December, yes it's slow, but we're we've got 0:02:57.360 --> 0:03:01.520 so many obligations, right, you know, August is the slowest 0:03:01.560 --> 0:03:03.840 month of the year. Congress leaves town, the White House 0:03:03.880 --> 0:03:07.680 throttles back. Trust me, as a traffic there's no traffic 0:03:08.120 --> 0:03:11.120 in Washington unless there's a Nats game, even right now, 0:03:11.200 --> 0:03:13.280 especially if the Nets playing the Phillies are Mets these days. 0:03:13.280 --> 0:03:16.000 But you know, that's literally the only traffic you run into. 0:03:17.400 --> 0:03:19.480 And the rule of thumb about August was simple, don't 0:03:19.520 --> 0:03:23.720 watch anything new until September, when everyone is paying attention again, 0:03:23.760 --> 0:03:26.080 when all parents are, the kids back at school, et cetera. 0:03:26.280 --> 0:03:29.680 August really was always used for regrouping. Presidents took vacations. 0:03:31.280 --> 0:03:33.960 That didn't mean stuff didn't there was a lot of 0:03:33.960 --> 0:03:36.120 important stuff what happened in August. I think I said 0:03:36.160 --> 0:03:38.840 this to you before. I actually have always done a 0:03:38.920 --> 0:03:42.080 July vacation. I've learned to do that lately, more so 0:03:42.120 --> 0:03:45.080 than August, because for me, August there is always a 0:03:45.120 --> 0:03:48.040 lot more happening in August than people realize. So August 0:03:48.040 --> 0:03:52.760 for me is about preparing for September in many ways. 0:03:53.080 --> 0:03:56.720 But you know, it's sort of made August even more 0:03:56.720 --> 0:03:58.600 interesting at times because it was so baked in that 0:03:58.640 --> 0:04:03.000 you didn't do anything planned, that you knew if something 0:04:03.040 --> 0:04:05.800 happened in August it was unplanned, and that it was 0:04:05.840 --> 0:04:10.280 a bigger story than you realized. Bill Clinton thought he 0:04:10.320 --> 0:04:12.520 was in the clear in August of ninety eight, and 0:04:12.640 --> 0:04:15.240 the Mona, the Lewinsky grand jury test about he had 0:04:15.280 --> 0:04:17.800 in two thousand and five. George W. Bush thought he 0:04:17.800 --> 0:04:21.360 could vacation in Crawford. Then he had Hurricane Katrina, which 0:04:21.400 --> 0:04:25.039 turned August into a political catastrophe. But it was these 0:04:25.040 --> 0:04:30.359 are semi unplanned events, right, and in some ways you 0:04:30.400 --> 0:04:32.599 were encouraged to try to keep your head down in August. 0:04:32.839 --> 0:04:35.200 Of course, Donald Trump's never bought into that idea. For him, 0:04:35.279 --> 0:04:38.040 there is no regrouping. There is no resting. August is 0:04:38.080 --> 0:04:41.680 no different than April, than May, than December than June. Right, 0:04:41.839 --> 0:04:44.880 you know, it's all the same. And of course this 0:04:44.920 --> 0:04:47.120 August has been anything but sleeping. We've had two high 0:04:47.120 --> 0:04:49.919 profile summits, a federal takeover the DC Police Department, the 0:04:49.960 --> 0:04:52.800 government buying a stake in Intel, a new redistricting order 0:04:52.800 --> 0:04:56.839 in Texas, a response in California, a manufactured Epstein file. 0:04:57.320 --> 0:05:00.400 I'm sure I'm leaving a few things out. We had 0:05:00.440 --> 0:05:02.479 a lot of motion in August. But you know what 0:05:02.520 --> 0:05:04.359 we didn't have. We didn't have a lot of movement 0:05:06.120 --> 0:05:09.120 right where things stood between Ukraine and Russian July they 0:05:09.160 --> 0:05:12.600 still stand today. The summits produced nothing, but there was 0:05:12.640 --> 0:05:16.400 a big TV show. The takeover DC policing has been performative. 0:05:16.400 --> 0:05:18.600 Troops are deployed in all the wrong neighborhoods South Park 0:05:18.640 --> 0:05:22.000 Head right. For what it's worth, I've been driving around 0:05:22.000 --> 0:05:26.600 town and wherever you would think that what Donald Trump's 0:05:26.600 --> 0:05:30.080 stated goal is. He's not been. He's not been. I've 0:05:30.120 --> 0:05:33.080 not seen him in parts of town that aren't tourist attractions. 0:05:35.360 --> 0:05:37.040 It's like being anchored in the ocean while the boat 0:05:37.120 --> 0:05:39.600 rocks back and forth. Right, there's plenty of turbulence, but 0:05:39.640 --> 0:05:42.839 no forward direction. And at some point that motion without 0:05:42.880 --> 0:05:46.880 movement simply makes everybody seasick. So take the redistrict find 0:05:46.880 --> 0:05:48.920 in Texas. Trump's order was met with such resistance that 0:05:48.960 --> 0:05:51.640 had triggered a nationwide scramble. Everyone's trying to outgain the 0:05:51.680 --> 0:05:54.880 other side for partisan advantage. Democrats are justifying their actions 0:05:54.880 --> 0:05:57.320 by pointing to Republicans, Republicans point to Democrats, and the 0:05:57.320 --> 0:06:00.160 result is a complete abandonment of the Democratic princes bull 0:06:00.160 --> 0:06:04.839 of fair representation. That's motion with real consequences, but it's 0:06:04.880 --> 0:06:07.960 the kind that corrodes institutions rather than strengthens them. And 0:06:08.080 --> 0:06:11.320 ultimately the goal for both parties is to fight to 0:06:11.360 --> 0:06:14.919 a draw, which is motion without movement. Let's look at 0:06:14.920 --> 0:06:17.280 the Epstein file gambit. Trump managed to stage a faux 0:06:17.320 --> 0:06:21.239 revelation by saying this was this is actually like unpack 0:06:21.320 --> 0:06:24.240 what he did with Epstein here. Right. You know, if 0:06:24.279 --> 0:06:27.000 you believe there are all these files that should be 0:06:27.040 --> 0:06:30.640 released and aren't being released, you should really be angry 0:06:30.640 --> 0:06:32.839 by what he did. Right, Because Trump managed to stage 0:06:32.839 --> 0:06:35.680 a faux revelation by sending his old personal lawyer to 0:06:35.720 --> 0:06:39.800 interviewed Gallaine Maxwell. Of course, before the interview they made 0:06:39.800 --> 0:06:45.240 sure to publicly dangle the possibility of clemency, so it 0:06:45.400 --> 0:06:48.440 sort of obviously had an impact under testimony. Right then, 0:06:48.480 --> 0:06:50.600 of course, they released the transcript that surprise seemed to 0:06:50.600 --> 0:06:55.839 clear Trump manufactured theater through it through right here, we 0:06:55.880 --> 0:06:58.320 had a convicted fallon begging for a pardon, coach through 0:06:58.320 --> 0:07:00.520 her answers, presented to the public as if she were 0:07:00.560 --> 0:07:04.480 a credible witness, chum in the water, created headlines, got 0:07:04.520 --> 0:07:09.240 people talking, but advance nothing, motion, not movement. I am 0:07:09.279 --> 0:07:11.320 really curious to see if those that say they care 0:07:11.320 --> 0:07:15.480 about the Epstein files on the right view this Gallaine 0:07:15.560 --> 0:07:22.200 Maxwell transcript as something that's worthless or worth something. I 0:07:22.280 --> 0:07:25.360 kind of think it's totally worthless, right, I mean, at 0:07:25.360 --> 0:07:27.240 what point did the transcript which he says, hey, let 0:07:27.240 --> 0:07:29.960 me add something, and it's this extra It's almost like 0:07:29.960 --> 0:07:32.280 her lawyer said, hey, you didn't clear Trump enough. You 0:07:32.320 --> 0:07:35.840 need to make sure you clear Trump more. Or let's 0:07:35.840 --> 0:07:38.400 look at the John Bolton prosecution threat. What was the 0:07:38.400 --> 0:07:41.600 point of that Not to win a conviction. The point 0:07:41.640 --> 0:07:43.880 is to send a message criticized Trump and the government 0:07:43.920 --> 0:07:46.760 will be weaponized against you. That's why cash Ptel at 0:07:46.800 --> 0:07:49.000 the FBI now makes JEdgar Hoover look like a statesman. 0:07:49.640 --> 0:07:52.000 And that's why the sudden firing of Trump loyalists Billing 0:07:52.000 --> 0:07:56.960 Long at the IRS is extra suspicious because there's only 0:07:57.000 --> 0:08:00.200 one of two reasons Billy Long was fired. Either he 0:08:00.240 --> 0:08:03.640 wouldn't go far enough on something, or he was willing 0:08:03.680 --> 0:08:06.960 to go too far, and Scott Besson stepped in. Either way, 0:08:07.600 --> 0:08:11.720 something that stinks to high Heaven. Here. Let's just say 0:08:10.800 --> 0:08:14.280 I'm old enough to remember when House Republicans used to 0:08:14.360 --> 0:08:17.480 care about abuse at the IRS or and they would 0:08:17.560 --> 0:08:21.160 spend all sorts of of time trying to I mean, 0:08:21.240 --> 0:08:24.119 Jim Jordan, I think, became a household figure by going 0:08:24.160 --> 0:08:28.480 after a bureaucrat at the IRS. And here we have 0:08:29.520 --> 0:08:34.120 really suspicious activity at the IRS. I would say, don't 0:08:34.160 --> 0:08:39.680 hold your breath for James Comer to start issuing subpoenas 0:08:39.679 --> 0:08:42.920 for testimony from Treasury to find out what's actually happened 0:08:42.920 --> 0:08:44.800 in the IRS, to find out what actually happened with 0:08:44.840 --> 0:08:51.600 Billy Long. Something smells, but don't count on your congressional oversight, folks, 0:08:51.600 --> 0:08:55.040 to actually care. And it's not confined to Washington. Virginia, 0:08:55.280 --> 0:08:57.920 the Department of Justice has been working to elevate the 0:08:57.920 --> 0:09:02.040 transgender school issue again fight Republicans believe helps them politically. 0:09:02.360 --> 0:09:04.640 But here's the federal government being used to try to 0:09:04.679 --> 0:09:09.680 prop up a campaign in Virginia. This is what you're 0:09:09.679 --> 0:09:12.319 going to see, right, We're starting to see, right, the 0:09:12.360 --> 0:09:14.960 power of the federal government. Trump will use this power 0:09:15.280 --> 0:09:22.320 to politically try to maneuver things in his favor. And 0:09:22.360 --> 0:09:24.400 by the way, if you're wondering, like all this mortgage 0:09:24.400 --> 0:09:26.720 fraud stuff, right, they sort of this has been one 0:09:26.760 --> 0:09:32.000 of the more interesting sort of manufactured crises that they've created, 0:09:32.880 --> 0:09:38.160 which is to scour the financial disclosures of home ownership 0:09:38.160 --> 0:09:42.400 and of real estate of selective political opponents. Letitia James 0:09:42.640 --> 0:09:45.920 Adam shift. We're now seeing it with the Fed governor. 0:09:46.480 --> 0:09:48.440 And I will just tell you a basic rule of thumb. 0:09:49.360 --> 0:09:53.360 If Roger Stone, which is a longtime Trump dark arts 0:09:53.720 --> 0:09:57.760 on and off again advisor, he hypes these two things 0:09:57.800 --> 0:10:00.800 more than anything. Right, Well, when his own is involved 0:10:00.800 --> 0:10:02.360 in something, you know it's not on the up and 0:10:02.440 --> 0:10:05.600 up right. This guy is as crooked as they come 0:10:06.000 --> 0:10:09.760 when it comes to political dark arts. He arguably invented 0:10:09.760 --> 0:10:13.319 the modern version of it in many ways, and his 0:10:14.480 --> 0:10:18.199 obsession with this tells me how manufactured that is. So still, 0:10:18.240 --> 0:10:20.880 it's part of a bigger pattern, right, constant motion, not 0:10:20.960 --> 0:10:23.440 a lot of movement. Every day, one of these stories 0:10:23.440 --> 0:10:26.360 takes over every day the boat rocks again. Trump's first 0:10:26.440 --> 0:10:28.960 term he did the same thing. But there were people 0:10:29.000 --> 0:10:32.440 inside government who did try to study the ship. Not anymore. 0:10:32.679 --> 0:10:35.920 Maybe there's Bessin on the economy, maybe Ruby on Ukraine. 0:10:37.080 --> 0:10:39.679 In fact, I do wonder if you didn't have Bessin 0:10:39.760 --> 0:10:42.000 on the economy, we'd probably already be in a recession 0:10:42.080 --> 0:10:44.360 with the tear of craziness. And if you didn't have 0:10:44.480 --> 0:10:49.920 Rubio there, Ukraine would already have lost its sovereignty to Russia. 0:10:50.440 --> 0:10:53.480 But outside of that, everyone else is enabling this chaos. 0:10:53.559 --> 0:10:55.880 I mean, this is I mean, my gosh, the FBI 0:10:56.559 --> 0:10:59.120 is not a true I mean, this is so deeply 0:10:59.200 --> 0:11:01.600 damaging to the repation of the FBI. What Cash Betel 0:11:01.720 --> 0:11:04.880 is doing. I mean, you know what American is going 0:11:04.920 --> 0:11:07.080 to believe anything coming out of the FBI right now? 0:11:08.240 --> 0:11:10.280 It all feels And if I were a rank and 0:11:10.320 --> 0:11:13.400 file a BI agent, I'd be just appalled. This is terrible. Say, 0:11:13.559 --> 0:11:17.360 what's happening to the core rank and file at Border Patrol, DHS, 0:11:17.640 --> 0:11:19.800 your average National Guard. You know, remember these people are 0:11:19.800 --> 0:11:24.280 following orders and they're they're really it's it's what Trump 0:11:24.440 --> 0:11:27.040 is doing to these folks. What's happening to these agencies. 0:11:27.400 --> 0:11:30.800 This is doing long term damage where it's just trust 0:11:30.800 --> 0:11:33.800 will erode for everybody. But it also brings me to 0:11:33.840 --> 0:11:37.720 the economy because this is the real danger. What happens 0:11:37.720 --> 0:11:40.160 when things get worse with this economy, and they're going 0:11:40.240 --> 0:11:42.440 to get worse, right, You've heard it from Mark Xandy. 0:11:42.960 --> 0:11:46.960 I just heard it from one of Trump's most loyal 0:11:47.840 --> 0:11:51.840 economic advisor, Steve Moore, who's certainly more bullish than most, 0:11:51.920 --> 0:11:58.720 but has some concerns about this economy. Things are getting worse. 0:11:58.840 --> 0:12:03.000 I mean, now just give you everybody hates the airport anecdote, 0:12:03.120 --> 0:12:06.920 but I was at the airport killing some time. Ordered 0:12:06.960 --> 0:12:09.959 a couple eggs and the men you said three seventy 0:12:09.960 --> 0:12:15.000 five per egg, so you know, two eggs. Waiter said, actually, 0:12:15.000 --> 0:12:17.040 we just had to We just raised them. The price 0:12:17.160 --> 0:12:19.679 changed and it's six dollars per egg now. And he 0:12:19.720 --> 0:12:22.320 went through this whole reason. He was like apologizing. He goes, 0:12:22.840 --> 0:12:24.240 you know, are you sure you want to order eggs? 0:12:24.360 --> 0:12:26.800 Or do you want to just order one egg? And 0:12:28.400 --> 0:12:31.840 it was just, you know, look, it's an anecdotal, but 0:12:31.840 --> 0:12:34.320 you're hearing it. I told you about stringflation already taking 0:12:34.320 --> 0:12:36.640 place of Trader Joe's. We know others of you have 0:12:36.720 --> 0:12:38.680 been when I weighed in on that. I've been hearing 0:12:38.679 --> 0:12:40.960 from other folks on this. I mean, the cost of 0:12:41.040 --> 0:12:44.319 living has gone up. There's not a single streaming service 0:12:44.920 --> 0:12:49.240 that has is deciding to charge less for entertainment, and 0:12:49.280 --> 0:12:51.920 in fact, everybody seems to be charging more, even as 0:12:51.920 --> 0:12:55.480 there's weird consolidation Disney, Hulu and ESPN. I thought, We're 0:12:55.520 --> 0:12:57.120 all under the same umbrella, and somehow I'm going to 0:12:57.160 --> 0:12:59.720 be paying more, not less. Right, we all see that coming. 0:13:00.360 --> 0:13:05.960 All of that impacts the pocketbook, all of it. So 0:13:06.000 --> 0:13:09.440 here we are, we have, jobs are scarcer. The next 0:13:10.720 --> 0:13:13.160 jobs report, next couple of jobs report are going to 0:13:13.160 --> 0:13:19.800 be very very telling. Inflation is still rising. Stagflation in 0:13:19.840 --> 0:13:23.400 the spring of twenty six is a real potential problem. 0:13:23.880 --> 0:13:28.600 And what happens when that happens, Right, what's the federal government? 0:13:28.600 --> 0:13:30.880 How's Trump going to try to distract from all of this. 0:13:31.640 --> 0:13:34.000 I don't know if he can, because lived experience is 0:13:34.080 --> 0:13:35.880 just that you feel it at the grocery store. You'll 0:13:35.880 --> 0:13:37.880 feel it at the gas pump. You'll feel it when 0:13:37.920 --> 0:13:40.199 ren hikes outpaced paychecks. You'll feel it when the soul 0:13:40.240 --> 0:13:42.880 called booming economy doesn't match the reality of your own 0:13:43.000 --> 0:13:45.880 household budget. Stocks may be going up in a handful 0:13:45.920 --> 0:13:49.319 of stocks that are betting on AI, but all those 0:13:49.320 --> 0:13:53.120 bets on AI are about eliminating your job. That's what's 0:13:53.120 --> 0:13:56.120 scary out there for people. So when the economy does 0:13:56.160 --> 0:13:58.880 sour in twenty six, Trump's going to panic. So what 0:13:58.920 --> 0:14:00.000 are we going to see. We're going to see more 0:14:00.080 --> 0:14:04.480 boltons probably, you know, if you're a nominee in a 0:14:04.600 --> 0:14:08.960 race that's on the edge and you're going up against Trump, 0:14:09.040 --> 0:14:14.440 whether you're an independent, Democrat, whatever, don't be surprised if 0:14:14.480 --> 0:14:17.839 an allegation, you know, gets instead of a piece of 0:14:17.880 --> 0:14:21.360 oppo research, they just use it. They have a US 0:14:21.400 --> 0:14:24.880 attorney make an announcement to make it seem more real. Right, 0:14:25.720 --> 0:14:28.720 I think we know those that's all coming. There'll be 0:14:28.760 --> 0:14:31.160 more abuse of the irs, more abuse of the DOJ 0:14:31.480 --> 0:14:35.840 and the FBI, there'll be a lot more distraction retribution. 0:14:36.680 --> 0:14:40.520 All of it will be motion, but no movement, right, 0:14:40.680 --> 0:14:43.280 no movement. And in the end, that's the Trump's strategy. 0:14:43.320 --> 0:14:47.120 The boat must always be rocking motion for its own sake, 0:14:47.280 --> 0:14:50.240 and when you squeal, when you get seasick, he leans 0:14:50.280 --> 0:14:52.720 into it. That was true in his first term. It's 0:14:52.720 --> 0:14:54.640 more true now with no guardrails left. The question is 0:14:54.680 --> 0:14:58.040 how much of this will the country tolerate When the 0:14:58.120 --> 0:15:01.560 trains aren't running on time, when the rocking boat isn't 0:15:01.560 --> 0:15:05.680 going anywhere, how long before people simply want off? Well, 0:15:05.720 --> 0:15:10.360 we found out in twenty twenty, right this strategy made 0:15:10.360 --> 0:15:16.520 people literally sick and they wanted out. And that's to me, 0:15:16.640 --> 0:15:18.960 the real risk that's out there, because right now all 0:15:19.080 --> 0:15:22.400 this motion is just leaving us a drift economically, certainly, 0:15:22.480 --> 0:15:26.160 leaving us a drift politically certainly, leaving us a drift 0:15:26.320 --> 0:15:29.640 when it comes to America's place in the world. We're exhausted, 0:15:29.680 --> 0:15:33.800 we're seasick, and we're likely worse off than when we started. 0:15:35.560 --> 0:15:38.720 So I have a few other things that I wanted 0:15:38.720 --> 0:15:42.400 to I wanted folks that I just sort of think 0:15:42.440 --> 0:15:45.360 of them as little notebook blips but I have to 0:15:45.400 --> 0:15:48.800 tell you the reaction to the latest episode of South Park. 0:15:48.840 --> 0:15:50.440 And I know a lot of people, a lot of 0:15:50.440 --> 0:15:54.840 the South Park ride ups always focused about writing it 0:15:54.920 --> 0:15:57.720 up through the prism of their anti trumpness. But to me, 0:15:58.240 --> 0:16:04.720 this most recent episode was more brilliant in its satire 0:16:04.840 --> 0:16:08.400 against Silicon Valley right and against AI and sort of 0:16:08.760 --> 0:16:12.920 the techridy, you know, as he became Well literally, I'm 0:16:12.920 --> 0:16:15.720 watching that episode and the next morning I'm going to 0:16:15.800 --> 0:16:20.600 read you the following story about Elon Musk and this 0:16:20.760 --> 0:16:23.760 is I thought it was part of the south Park parody. 0:16:24.000 --> 0:16:27.200 Elon Musk announced he wants to simulate software companies like 0:16:27.280 --> 0:16:31.320 Microsoft using only artificial intelligence. He's even got a name 0:16:31.360 --> 0:16:34.760 for the new venture, macro Hard. Do you get it? 0:16:35.080 --> 0:16:40.080 Microsoft macro Hard. I literally, I'm reading this story. I'm like, wait, 0:16:40.080 --> 0:16:43.160 wait a bite, waite. Is this a ketamine fueled idea 0:16:43.280 --> 0:16:45.840 that came out of South Park or is this actually 0:16:45.960 --> 0:16:48.520 a real idea? And the fact that there are all 0:16:48.560 --> 0:16:51.440 these people that enable Musk around him, you know at 0:16:51.440 --> 0:16:54.160 this point, like I know, there's a fine line between 0:16:54.160 --> 0:16:57.320 genius and crazy, and you throw a little kenemine into it, 0:16:57.360 --> 0:17:00.240 and God only knows what that does. But I'm sorry 0:17:00.720 --> 0:17:04.600 macro Hard versus my I mean it was it is? 0:17:04.600 --> 0:17:08.280 Is it life imitating art imitating life at this point anyway, 0:17:08.359 --> 0:17:14.199 I just you just can't see. Sometimes it's impossible to 0:17:14.200 --> 0:17:19.680 parry to parody reality when the reality itself feels completely 0:17:19.880 --> 0:17:23.120 like a parody. One of the other pieces of seasickness 0:17:23.520 --> 0:17:26.320 that folks scott was this, you know, sort of the 0:17:26.400 --> 0:17:30.920 random you know campaign that Trump, I guess launched last 0:17:30.920 --> 0:17:32.600 week saying you wanted to get rid of mail and voting. 0:17:33.320 --> 0:17:36.320 I did want to point out some polling information that 0:17:36.480 --> 0:17:40.040 if let's say, states, do I mean we know he 0:17:40.160 --> 0:17:42.920 is running, if he tells a state governor and a 0:17:42.960 --> 0:17:46.480 state legislature that is that is controlled by Trump, the 0:17:46.480 --> 0:17:49.720 Trump machine, which is, you know, say your Missouri's, you're Indiana's, 0:17:49.760 --> 0:17:52.040 places like that right everywhere where he's been able to 0:17:52.119 --> 0:17:55.120 in Texas, where he's being able to order people essentially 0:17:55.160 --> 0:17:58.480 to do his bidding on redistricting and stuff, he probably 0:17:58.480 --> 0:18:01.800 can order the getting rid of mail in ballots in 0:18:01.840 --> 0:18:05.600 some of these states. But I have a feeling the 0:18:05.600 --> 0:18:07.920 only way voters are going to accept that is if 0:18:07.960 --> 0:18:12.440 you extend early voting and in person early voting, and 0:18:12.520 --> 0:18:15.520 so you know if you told me. And what's interesting is, 0:18:15.680 --> 0:18:18.040 you know, if you were actually looking for a way 0:18:18.040 --> 0:18:21.320 to sort of eliminate this fight over mail in ballots 0:18:21.640 --> 0:18:23.359 and if you just wanted to limit them to the 0:18:23.359 --> 0:18:27.840 military ballots, this is what the public would tolerate, right, 0:18:28.080 --> 0:18:33.440 which is eighty four percent. This is a Pew pole 0:18:33.680 --> 0:18:36.840 that came out this week Centers for American Trends panel poll. 0:18:36.920 --> 0:18:40.919 So it's a panel survey. It's not random sample, but 0:18:41.040 --> 0:18:44.800 it's interesting what the public. These were the most popular 0:18:44.920 --> 0:18:49.080 voting reform proposals. One requiring electronic voting machines to print 0:18:49.119 --> 0:18:51.600 a paper backup of a voter's ballot. Eighty four percent 0:18:51.640 --> 0:18:54.640 favored that. Requiring all voters to show government issued voto 0:18:54.680 --> 0:18:57.560 or ID. That's eighty three percent. Support making early and 0:18:57.640 --> 0:19:00.679 in person voting Okay, not mail voting, early and in 0:19:00.720 --> 0:19:03.240 person voting available for at least two weeks prior to 0:19:03.240 --> 0:19:06.800 the election. That has eighty percent favorability making election day 0:19:06.800 --> 0:19:09.439 a federal holiday as seventy four percent. Everything else started 0:19:09.480 --> 0:19:12.440 to get more polarizing. I mean, Trump has effectively polarized 0:19:12.480 --> 0:19:14.600 the idea of mail in ballots. When again this was 0:19:14.600 --> 0:19:18.160 an invention of the Republicans, right. It was all frankly, 0:19:18.359 --> 0:19:21.399 in my home state of Florida, they encouraged mail in 0:19:21.440 --> 0:19:24.320 ballots because of the snowbirds, and the snowbirds were wealthier 0:19:24.600 --> 0:19:27.679 and more Republican leaning. So it was an incentivized by 0:19:27.680 --> 0:19:31.600 the Republican lawmakers to make it easier convenience voting for 0:19:31.640 --> 0:19:33.679 the snowbirds who didn't have to fly back to the 0:19:33.680 --> 0:19:36.240 state of Florida in time to make it for their 0:19:36.640 --> 0:19:40.159 five months and twenty nine days or actually, no, excuse me, 0:19:40.200 --> 0:19:44.159 six months and six months plus one day, so that 0:19:44.160 --> 0:19:48.080 they could avoid paying stay and income tax. But I 0:19:48.080 --> 0:19:51.919 think that is a if you do see an effort 0:19:51.960 --> 0:19:54.879 that actually does. I think the only way that voter 0:19:55.359 --> 0:19:57.640 the public would tolerate getting rid of mail in ballots 0:19:58.359 --> 0:20:02.120 is if you extend early in person voting. And I'll 0:20:02.160 --> 0:20:04.480 tell you you cannot. If we try to have everybody 0:20:04.520 --> 0:20:07.560 vote on election day and election day only, there'd be 0:20:07.720 --> 0:20:10.760 you know, we would have lines that would probably last 0:20:11.240 --> 0:20:14.760 past midnight in quite a few states. So it is 0:20:14.840 --> 0:20:19.200 it is we have. You cannot process everybody. You cannot 0:20:19.200 --> 0:20:22.000 process one hundred and fifty million ballots in one twenty 0:20:22.000 --> 0:20:25.560 four hour period. Okay, one hundred years ago when we 0:20:25.560 --> 0:20:28.800 were you know, half of that population even less so. 0:20:29.800 --> 0:20:31.119 By the way, if you ever wanted, you know, in 0:20:31.119 --> 0:20:35.280 the nineteenth century elections, some you know, some states held 0:20:35.320 --> 0:20:39.359 their presidential electoral vote election to decide which way the 0:20:39.359 --> 0:20:41.840 electoral votes go in, like in October. There was no 0:20:42.680 --> 0:20:44.960 one day. Different states would hold it on different days. 0:20:46.040 --> 0:20:49.239 So this is anyway, The point is is that I 0:20:49.640 --> 0:20:53.119 there is you could see if there was, if you 0:20:53.200 --> 0:20:57.560 wanted to try to reach out to a voter who 0:20:57.640 --> 0:21:01.320 was bought into Donald Trump's manufactured threats about mail in ballots. 0:21:02.240 --> 0:21:06.040 The easiest way to sort of get around it is 0:21:06.080 --> 0:21:11.520 to propose longer in early, in person, in person situation. 0:21:11.560 --> 0:21:13.399 And then finally, I want to close with this because 0:21:13.400 --> 0:21:16.480 it's my favorite. It was my favorite thing I read 0:21:16.600 --> 0:21:18.800 all week, and it comes from a newsletter out of 0:21:18.840 --> 0:21:23.520 the Dispatch by Scott Lindselcombe. It's very economics focused. It's 0:21:23.560 --> 0:21:25.480 one of my favorite newsletters. People ask me all the time, 0:21:25.480 --> 0:21:28.040 what do you read? I always forget to mention Scott, 0:21:28.400 --> 0:21:31.359 but he had this great lead the other day and 0:21:31.800 --> 0:21:35.280 it's a great word that I will be using a lot, 0:21:35.520 --> 0:21:39.080 and it summarizes what happens to debate online better than 0:21:39.119 --> 0:21:41.960 anything else. He said this, he writes this easily. One 0:21:41.960 --> 0:21:44.480 of the worst and most cynical plays in modern politics 0:21:44.800 --> 0:21:48.320 is the practice of nut picking. What does he mean 0:21:48.320 --> 0:21:52.400 by nut picking? Partisans will treat the loopy utterance of 0:21:52.440 --> 0:21:56.120 some random member of the other political team as broadly 0:21:56.200 --> 0:21:59.920 representative of the entire movement, thereby seeking to discredit it 0:22:00.280 --> 0:22:03.400 and it's saner and stronger players, and to reassure their 0:22:03.400 --> 0:22:06.760 comrades that everyone on the other side is a wackadoodle freak, 0:22:07.119 --> 0:22:11.560 not worth engaging, etc. The practice of nut picking is 0:22:11.600 --> 0:22:14.600 widespread on both sides of the aisle, especially on social media, 0:22:14.640 --> 0:22:18.120 and typically related to culture, war issues, family, race, gender, crime, etc. 0:22:18.800 --> 0:22:23.560 That arouse strong feelings and push people's buttons. Don't you 0:22:23.720 --> 0:22:26.639 feel satisfied now that there is now a word for 0:22:26.680 --> 0:22:30.320 this nonsense? When you see it like that whole conversation 0:22:30.440 --> 0:22:34.000 about the genes was this back and forth between nut 0:22:34.080 --> 0:22:38.280 pickers Right there, You could just feel that there was 0:22:38.320 --> 0:22:44.760 an attempt to attack others' political positions based on an 0:22:44.760 --> 0:22:49.200 outlanders position that somebody took that has no connection to anybody, 0:22:49.640 --> 0:22:52.159 but somebody wants to make you think it does. Anyway, 0:22:52.200 --> 0:22:55.760 The point is I just love this phrase. It so 0:22:55.920 --> 0:22:59.960 applies to political debate today. This is what has replaced 0:23:00.119 --> 0:23:03.320 actual political debate. This is what the conversation is on 0:23:03.400 --> 0:23:06.840 cable news quite a bit nutpicking. Literally, a segment is 0:23:06.920 --> 0:23:11.680