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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. Single best idea to

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Speaker 1: the end of the most original summer. I think I

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Speaker 1: can editorialize and say for each and every American, for

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Speaker 1: all of you around the world, it has been absolutely

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Speaker 1: exhausting day by day. Whatever your politics, whatever your beliefs,

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Speaker 1: whatever your investment, walk in life, it has been extraordinary.

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Speaker 1: A major shout out to the surveillance team who got

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Speaker 1: me through it and got all of us through it.

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Speaker 1: And we're stilled and ready to get into the end

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Speaker 1: of the third quarter. Maybe a government shut down I

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Speaker 1: think in October sometime and on to Q four. It's

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Speaker 1: an adventure each and every day. It's good to start strong.

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Speaker 1: With a brief from wind Thin. He is of Burma.

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Speaker 1: He is definitive PhD from Colombia under Robert Undel, iconic

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Speaker 1: at Brown Brothers Harriman, and he's taken a new challenges

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Speaker 1: for the Bank of Nassau in the Bahamas. Win Thin

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Speaker 1: on the Pacific rim and international economics.

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Speaker 2: Daman, there're a long time m guys, so we've seen

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Speaker 2: this've been there, done this. It never ends well. Turkey's

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Speaker 2: tried to do this that it had finally reversed course

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Speaker 2: you mentioned Argentina. I've lost count. I can't you know,

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Speaker 2: lost count how many examples? So it's pretty much show

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Speaker 2: that you know, you graph independence, degrees of independence versus inflation.

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Speaker 2: It's uh, it's it's totally coordinated. We all know what

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Speaker 2: the law of unintended consequences. We can go down the list,

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Speaker 2: the immigration, the tariffs, Russia. There, they're just yielding so

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Speaker 2: many things that can go wrong. And the more sort

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Speaker 2: of risks that pile up, the more I think the tail,

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Speaker 2: the tail gets fat and fatter.

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Speaker 1: Uh, and I do worry about that win thin there

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Speaker 1: and the quantitative finance and the tails are take a

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Speaker 1: B curve of your high school class height. There's a

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Speaker 1: median number out of the tips of the shortest people,

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Speaker 1: out of the tips of the tallest people, there's a tail.

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Speaker 1: And under stress those tails they get thicker if you

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Speaker 1: will get they get thicker, they get higher if you will.

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Speaker 1: And that's what Wyin Thinn was talking about there. The

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Speaker 1: risks into Q three and Q four did a lot

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Speaker 1: of economics today, each and every person with a different opinion.

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Speaker 1: Francis Donald came in with a really interesting weaker GDP

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Speaker 1: but also somewhat tepid inflation as well. She gets an

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Speaker 1: animal spirit decent nominal GDP. But it's a complex mix here,

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Speaker 1: Francis Donald.

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Speaker 3: We have what we call a stagflation light type of outlook,

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Speaker 3: which is growth that is comfortably low but not collapsing.

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Speaker 3: So that's one where one you know, between one and

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Speaker 3: two percent top. The problem is the inflation side of

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Speaker 3: this sphere, which is that we continue to see above

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Speaker 3: two percent inflation and getting it as high in the

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Speaker 3: next six months is three point four on both the

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Speaker 3: CPI and the PCI number. So you're seeing this phenomenal

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Speaker 3: tension in the US economy. And what worries me about

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Speaker 3: it is that it's not particularly aggressive. It's not pandemic

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Speaker 3: level inflation that calls for clear policy response. It's a

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Speaker 3: very nefarious, uncomfortable, muddle through type of environment. And this,

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Speaker 3: I think is going to continue to dominate a lot

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Speaker 3: of the conversations and make it difficult to say we're early,

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Speaker 3: mid or late cycle. When you say it's difficult to see,

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Speaker 3: what I hear is that this way of thinking about

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Speaker 3: the economy as being in a business cycle is getting

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Speaker 3: substantially distorted by tariffs, by inequalities by government spending and

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Speaker 3: so reading that stories and what you've got.

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Speaker 1: Francis Donald of RBC Capital Markets. Indeed, she says, it

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Speaker 1: is mysterious. We are stealed and ready to have good

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Speaker 1: conversations for you into September and on to the end

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Speaker 1: of twenty twenty five on podcast on Apple, on Spotify

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Speaker 1: and on YouTube podcasts. It's single best idea