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Speaker 2: All right, welcome in What's Driving the Great? Episode two
Speaker 2: eighty seven. Uh, today you are not going to be
Speaker 2: able to see us. Today is an audio only show
Speaker 2: due to some technical difficulties. So because of that, we'll
Speaker 2: also do the show a little bit differently. Sometimes we
Speaker 2: produce it up kind of like it's a TV show
Speaker 2: with some elements and stuff. Since today we don't have
Speaker 2: the visual elements for it, We're gonna do it the
Speaker 2: way we used to do our gambling shows on Thursdays
Speaker 2: or Fridays, where Demanse and I will go through every
Speaker 2: game on the slate and then eventually get to the
Speaker 2: actual but five picks we're making demands will do his teaser,
Speaker 2: so we'll do it that way. Also, I guess this
Speaker 2: is kind of weird because if you're already listening to this,
Speaker 2: you're probably already subscribed on audio. But that means you're
Speaker 2: our most dedicated audio listener, so like rate, subscribe, review iTunes, Spotify,
Speaker 2: all that stuff. And if you're like, oh man, I
Speaker 2: always listen this way, I'm not that, you can also
Speaker 2: subscribe to the YouTube page, which typically is where we
Speaker 2: go live for these things. Demonse, how are you?
Speaker 3: I'm pretty good, Pops. How are we doing today?
Speaker 2: I'm doing well. It is one of the most important
Speaker 2: Thursday night football games of the year tonight. That's the
Speaker 2: first one. We'll start with Denver at the Chargers. The
Speaker 2: Chargers laying two and a half. So here's the weird
Speaker 2: spot for this game before I give any analysis of it.
Speaker 2: The Bengals have been left for dead. However, they're not
Speaker 2: for the bank. There's like, oh, there's all these different
Speaker 2: scenarios they need and I'm not saying Cincinnati is going
Speaker 2: to be able to execute the following scenarios, but it
Speaker 2: is quite simple. What Cincinnati needs to make the playoffs.
Speaker 2: They need to win their remaining games. And why am
Speaker 2: I talking about Cincinnati here, because they need to win
Speaker 2: their remaining games, and they need the loser of tonight's
Speaker 2: game to lose its remaining games, and so they need
Speaker 2: to win out, and whoever loses tonight, they need them
Speaker 2: to lose out, which is why from a playoff pictures standpoint,
Speaker 2: the team with eight wins in this game is actually
Speaker 2: in far better shape than the team with nine wins.
Speaker 2: So let me explain that the Chargers come in eight
Speaker 2: and six, the Broncos come in nine to five, but
Speaker 2: the Chargers after tonight, and if the Chargers win tonight,
Speaker 2: they're locked in. The Chargers after tonight have the Patriots
Speaker 2: and the Raiders, So even if the Chargers lose tonight,
Speaker 2: if they can just win one of those games, they're
Speaker 2: going to be fine. Denver, on the other hand, after
Speaker 2: tonight is at Cincinnati and then has the Chiefs in
Speaker 2: Week eighteen, in a game the Chiefs may or may
Speaker 2: not neat, and so the loser of tonight is up
Speaker 2: against it. Oddly, the loser of tonight is more up
Speaker 2: against it. If the nine win Denver team loses, than
Speaker 2: if the eight win Charger team loses. I this is
Speaker 2: not one of my picks, but I do like the
Speaker 2: Chargers in this spot because I think these are two
Speaker 2: of the best defenses, and while Denver's offense has been
Speaker 2: humming statistically speaking, I watched them this past weekend against
Speaker 2: the Colts in what was a massively important game for
Speaker 2: them in their playoff chances, and they try desperately to
Speaker 2: give that game to the Colts, and the Colts simply
Speaker 2: wouldn't take it. So I if I again, not one
Speaker 2: of the picks, but my lean tonight would be that
Speaker 2: the Chargers get the win. And I'm here to tell
Speaker 2: you if that happens, it is on the board that
Speaker 2: Denver misses the playoffs entirely. Let me ask you this demanse.
Speaker 2: Of these two teams, let's say Baltimore and we'll get
Speaker 2: to them later ends up winning the AFC North and
Speaker 2: Baltimore gets the three seed. They beat Pittsburgh this week
Speaker 2: and they end up winning the AFC North, they get
Speaker 2: the three seed. Which of these two teams would you
Speaker 2: rather your Ravens playing Round one? Because one of them's
Speaker 2: almost assuredly gonna be the sixth seed, So Denver or
Speaker 2: the Chargers.
Speaker 3: I'd have to lean Denver. I'd rather play Denver Er honestly,
Speaker 3: you know what, I'm sorry, wrong, wrong, I'd rather play
Speaker 3: the Chargers. I've seen some meltdowns the Broncos. It's it's
Speaker 3: it's a tough one for me, just because you know,
Speaker 3: obviously a rookie quarter But the Sean Payton situation, I
Speaker 3: think they've got something going on over there. But I've
Speaker 3: seen some bad.
Speaker 2: So so here totally fair. You were sitting with me
Speaker 2: when they had the meltdown against the Jags. Here's what
Speaker 2: I do want to say about the Chargers and the
Speaker 2: overarching story of the Chargers and Justin Herbert. So, Herbert
Speaker 2: is going to finish his fifth year of his career
Speaker 2: with basically all of the records for quarterbacks through five seasons, yards, touchdowns,
Speaker 2: I think he's gonna have the most of any quarterback
Speaker 2: in either of those categories. He also, this year it's
Speaker 2: gonna be another year he doesn't make the Pro Bowl.
Speaker 2: It's potentially another year they don't win double digit games,
Speaker 2: and it is going to be an odd spot if
Speaker 2: five years into his career, Justin Herbert has one double
Speaker 2: digit win season ten and seven, one playoff appearance, one
Speaker 2: Pro Bowl appearance, zero playoff victories, and zero A level
Speaker 2: seasons that aren't grated on the rookie curve. I know
Speaker 2: the talent is there, and I'm not the you know
Speaker 2: a lot of those seasons previously that went at Rye.
Speaker 2: I'm not laying totally at his feet, but five years in,
Speaker 2: you would have liked to see more improvement from Justin Herbert.
Speaker 2: His passer rating and that's not everything, but his passer
Speaker 2: rating by year ninety eight, ninety seven, ninety three, ninety three,
Speaker 2: ninety seven. His yards per game have plummeted this season.
Speaker 2: That's more a stylistic thing. His completion percentage has hovered
Speaker 2: right around sixty five sixty six percent his whole career.
Speaker 2: His yards per attempt have been right in the low
Speaker 2: sevens every year throughout his career. He just seems so
Speaker 2: much like the same player he was as a rookie.
Speaker 2: And the reason we loved him as a rookie was
Speaker 2: because it's like, man, he's already this good think of
Speaker 2: how good he's going to get, and we didn't quite
Speaker 2: to me, we haven't seen that leap all right, next
Speaker 2: game is Texans Chiefs. And that's not one of my
Speaker 2: official five picks, Demanse, but it is because I made
Speaker 2: what I think is one of the sharpest bets anyone
Speaker 2: has made in the NFL all year. So, and I
Speaker 2: have the text history to show it to prove it.
Speaker 2: I'm not going to We're not on camera right now,
Speaker 2: so I can't post it anyway. Monday afternoon at work,
Speaker 2: was it Monday or Tuesday? No, it was Tuesday, Tuesday
Speaker 2: at work, I said to Wilds and Greg. I was like,
Speaker 2: the Chiefs are gonna practice today. The practice report's gonna
Speaker 2: come out. Mahomes is going to have practiced in some capacity,
Speaker 2: and this line is gonna flip. And I texted my
Speaker 2: gambling kind of group chat, and I texted my bookie,
Speaker 2: who's You're like, why do you need a bookie? Gambling's legal. Well,
Speaker 2: sometimes you're trying to get stuff in last minute, or
Speaker 2: sometimes you're out of state. I texted all of them
Speaker 2: and I was like, Hey, I'm not gonna try to
Speaker 2: you know, I don't have inside information here, but I'm
Speaker 2: telling you guys, right now, I believe Patrick Mahomes is
Speaker 2: playing in this football game. And the Chiefs at that
Speaker 2: moment were plus two points and plus one ten on
Speaker 2: the money line, and around two pm Tuesday, I fired
Speaker 2: a nice three unit bet on the Chiefs money line
Speaker 2: at plus one ten. It now sits at minus one
Speaker 2: seventy and the Chiefs are three and a half point
Speaker 2: favorites based purely off the belief in the indication that
Speaker 2: Mahomes is going to play. Which has have you? Have
Speaker 2: you seen come across your timeline these lunatic fans of
Speaker 2: other teams that are now claiming Mahomes fakes these injuries.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I have seen it. Just to make the dove
Speaker 3: that much more spicy or the pathway, whatever you want
Speaker 3: to call it. But I'm also super surprised that you're
Speaker 3: so like, you know, get Mahomes out there. He's gonna play,
Speaker 3: and as opposed to like, oh, you know, him taking
Speaker 3: a step back for a game.
Speaker 2: Let me be clear, if we're up to me, he
Speaker 2: would not play. I think Carson Wentz can be. The
Speaker 2: Texans to me are not a great team, and I
Speaker 2: think that their offensive line problems with Chris Jones and
Speaker 2: now Charles Aminahu back healthy and George carloftis I think
Speaker 2: the Chiefs can get after CJ. Stroud in a very
Speaker 2: real way and cause real problems. So it's not about
Speaker 2: what I want to have happen. It's about what I
Speaker 2: think is going to happen. Now. The Mahomes injury stuff,
Speaker 2: I do have to say it is it adds to
Speaker 2: my list of man I worry about the literacy literally
Speaker 2: and figuratively of society. When there are conspiracy theories about
Speaker 2: injuries that we saw take place, people were like, oh,
Speaker 2: the like the the only other time Mahomes suffered a
Speaker 2: significant ankle injury. We saw it happen in the playoff game.
Speaker 2: We saw him barely be able to walk. We saw
Speaker 2: afterwards him fighting not to get an X ray, the
Speaker 2: whole thing. We saw how he looked. We saw it
Speaker 2: when the Jackson player did right, did the knee drop tackle,
Speaker 2: and on Sunday we saw it. You saw his legs
Speaker 2: get bent back, him get crushed, get high loaded. We
Speaker 2: saw it happen. So it's not like a situation where
Speaker 2: it's like, oh, report out of Kansas City Mahomes got
Speaker 2: dinged in practice and they're worried he's not going to
Speaker 2: be able to play like that. That isn't what's happening here.
Speaker 2: So I'm legitimately surprised that this narrative exists, but maybe
Speaker 2: I shouldn't be. I So, with all that said, they're
Speaker 2: not one of my picks demands because I don't the
Speaker 2: Chiefs don't cover field goal spreads and listen, I do
Speaker 2: think they're gonna win. But on general gambling principle, if
Speaker 2: you could have gotten the Chiefs getting two and a half,
Speaker 2: betting them now laying three and a half is insane.
Speaker 2: We're gonna spit skip Pittsburgh Baltimore because that's gonna be
Speaker 2: one of the picks. Brown's Bengals's next one. And Bengals
Speaker 2: now find themselves in this very weird spot. They're seven
Speaker 2: and a half point favorites. Let's just assume, okay, for
Speaker 2: the sake of argument, that they win this week. They
Speaker 2: could demand be facing in back to back weeks teams
Speaker 2: with nothing to play for, which here's the spot they
Speaker 2: could be in. If the Broncos win tonight, the Broncos
Speaker 2: lock up a wild card spot tonight, and they play
Speaker 2: the Broncos next week this they play the Steelers in
Speaker 2: Week eighteen, which very well could be at that point
Speaker 2: locked into the three seed, can't go higher, can't go lower,
Speaker 2: and how that will play out now, as I talked
Speaker 2: about earlier, if the Broncos lose tonight, then Bengals Broncos,
Speaker 2: damn near becomes a playoff game. It is a playoff
Speaker 2: game for Cincinnati, and it becomes maybe one for Denver.
Speaker 2: Not quite because Denver would have another chance the following week.
Speaker 2: But a you know, a tricky spot. I don't love
Speaker 2: the way Cincinnati's played, but Cleveland going to DTR, who
Speaker 2: they have this odd fascination with Dorian Thompson Robinson over
Speaker 2: Jamis tells me Cleveland's not trying to win, And it's
Speaker 2: not that Jamis has played great, but he's clearly better
Speaker 2: than DTR. So I wouldn't lay the seven and a half.
Speaker 2: But I would be shocked if Cincinnati loses this game,
Speaker 2: like truly shocked. Cardinals Panthers and Eagles commanders are both
Speaker 2: picks of mine. So we're gonna wait on those Giants.
Speaker 2: Falcons is the next one. Have you seen the line
Speaker 2: for Giants Falcons?
Speaker 3: It's I've got it's minus nine and a half of
Speaker 3: the Falcons. I assume you're saying that's crazy with them
Speaker 3: putting Pinnis in.
Speaker 2: It's just such an indictment on the Giants. Yeah, I mean,
Speaker 2: the Falcons have not looked good. The Holkins are starting
Speaker 2: a rook it's a rookie's first start ever, and they
Speaker 2: are damn near double digit favorites. Like that is a
Speaker 2: truly baffling one to me. Not baffling, but baffling's wrong word.
Speaker 2: It's just such a stinging indictment on the Giants team
Speaker 2: as a whole. That you're playing a team that was
Speaker 2: so underwhelming in last week's game that they benched their
Speaker 2: quarterback in a win, they're gonna eat the contract, and
Speaker 2: you're getting nearly ten points. You're getting more than two scores.
Speaker 3: Same team that didn't cover a fourteen point spread last
Speaker 3: week too.
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, the Giants absolutely Titans Colts. The Titans seems
Speaker 2: like they're done with the Will Lovice experience, and the
Speaker 2: Colts might be approaching being done with the Anthony Richardson experience.
Speaker 2: I don't know that the Colts can fully recover from
Speaker 2: the type of loss they had this past week. Just
Speaker 2: as bad as it gets where you're about to go
Speaker 2: up thirteen points, Jonathan Taylor drops the ball before the
Speaker 2: end zone. Then you run that stupid double pass. Nick
Speaker 2: Benito returns it, and you know you went from being
Speaker 2: a coin flip to make the playoffs to being on
Speaker 2: life supports make the playoffs. Then a really interesting one
Speaker 2: Demons Lions Bears, with the Bears getting six and a half.
Speaker 2: Here's why it's an interesting one. The Bears offense, particularly
Speaker 2: in the first half of games, has been just horrific,
Speaker 2: just as you know, and Caleb's been bad early, and
Speaker 2: that further leads to credence to my theory that Caleb
Speaker 2: is just being way too cautious. You know, how many
Speaker 2: interceptions do you think he has on this eight game
Speaker 2: when losing streak? It's none, right, I think it's zero
Speaker 2: zero zero. Now he has a couple of strip sacks,
Speaker 2: but zero intercept They've lost eight in a row. He's
Speaker 2: thrown no picks, seventeen touchdowns, five interceptions on the year,
Speaker 2: which sounds really good, but he is just refusing to
Speaker 2: take chances with the ball down the field, which is
Speaker 2: hurting him. And it's also why in the first half
Speaker 2: they've been able to do nothing. But then in the
Speaker 2: second half they're trailing, there's a deficit and he's willing
Speaker 2: to let it rip a little bit more. Here's why
Speaker 2: I say this is an interesting one. The Packers offense
Speaker 2: is really good. The Bills offense is great. So the
Speaker 2: Lion's allowing seventy nine points the last two weeks to
Speaker 2: those two teams. Yet it's concerning, but it's like, well,
Speaker 2: those are some of the better offenses in football. If
Speaker 2: the Lions defense, who I don't care what Dan Campbell
Speaker 2: tries to say publicly the Lions, He's clearly has no
Speaker 2: faith in them, as evidence by the on site kick,
Speaker 2: the fourth down call at the end of the previous game.
Speaker 2: If the Lions defense lets the Bears offense look hell,
Speaker 2: just functional, the Lions are cooked. And I don't This
Speaker 2: is almost unfair. It's a cruelty of the NFL. But
Speaker 2: the at some times there's a year where a championship
Speaker 2: level team has so many injuries concentrated on one side
Speaker 2: of the ball, they're just done ey. To this day,
Speaker 2: if you ask me what's the best Chiefs team ever,
Speaker 2: my answer is the twenty twenty Chiefs. They didn't win
Speaker 2: the Super Bowl. In fact, they got blown out in
Speaker 2: the Super Bowl. Why because they had cluster injuries on
Speaker 2: their offensive line, and they just they all of a
Speaker 2: sudden had replacement offensive linemen in the Super Bowl and
Speaker 2: it couldn't overcome it. And I worry that something similar
Speaker 2: has happened with Detroit. So I'm not so concerned. I'm
Speaker 2: not concerned at all, even with the day Montgomery injury,
Speaker 2: which sucks for them about the Lions offense, but that
Speaker 2: Lions defense, that's something to watch this weekend, pending you
Speaker 2: know how they are able to look against Caleb and
Speaker 2: the Bears. All Right, Rams Jets is gonna be one
Speaker 2: of my picks this week, so we'll get to that
Speaker 2: in a minute. Vikings Seahawks is a really fun one
Speaker 2: where the Seahawks are getting three points at home Seattle
Speaker 2: after a really rough Geno game and getting blown out
Speaker 2: by the Packers after having a nice four game winning streak,
Speaker 2: finds themselves really on the ropes now. It is a
Speaker 2: weird spot because their big game obviously is the Rams
Speaker 2: in Week eighteen, but they have to at the very
Speaker 2: least win one of their next two in order for
Speaker 2: that game to be a big game. The Vikings quietly
Speaker 2: just hanging out with a twelve and two record, one
Speaker 2: seed and division still available to them, controlling their own destiny,
Speaker 2: but a brutal final stretch of in Seattle home for
Speaker 2: the Packers. Then at the Lions they went out. They're
Speaker 2: the one seed, but those are also all incredibly losable games.
Speaker 2: I'm really curious what Brian Flores is and that defense
Speaker 2: does against Gino. Coming off one of Gino's worst games
Speaker 2: of the year. I probably lean Minnesota in this spot.
Speaker 2: Patriots Bill's gonna be one of the picks. And then
Speaker 2: we get to some ugly games Niners Dolphins, which should
Speaker 2: have been sounded like it was going to be a
Speaker 2: marquee game at the beginning of the year, and everybody
Speaker 2: knows I'm interested in how Purty looks. I'm you know,
Speaker 2: the Tua. I think the jury is out on Tua.
Speaker 2: The jury is in. Pardon me on Tua. When things
Speaker 2: aren't perfect, he's going to look in over his skis Dolphins.
Speaker 2: Some Dolphins fans are still in denial, some have come around.
Speaker 2: The pretty thing that I find interesting is he actually
Speaker 2: has been able to do okay with different receivers, like
Speaker 2: Ayuk goes out, Juwan Jennings plays well, Deebo's not the
Speaker 2: same guy whatever. But when Trent Williams hasn't been there,
Speaker 2: He just has been a totally different player. Shanahan opened
Speaker 2: the possibility this week that Trent Williams doesn't play again
Speaker 2: this season, and then we remind you Trent Williams this
Speaker 2: summer before next year turns thirty seven years old. And
Speaker 2: the Niners obviously have a very interesting offseason ahead. Kirk
Speaker 2: Cousin's availability, Sam Darnold's availability, the report that party won
Speaker 2: on top of market money, all of that is going
Speaker 2: to make John let what what's crazy demand?
Speaker 3: Say many he wanted like fifty to fifty five million
Speaker 3: or something like that out of it?
Speaker 2: Well, I think he wants he wants. I think it's
Speaker 2: closer to sixty. Buddy, he's next up. And so here's
Speaker 2: the thing on quarterback money that I want to talk
Speaker 2: about for a second that I think gets lost in
Speaker 2: the conversation a bit. It does not really matter if
Speaker 2: you pay the guy fifty or if you pay him sixty.
Speaker 2: I mean it does in that that's ten million a
Speaker 2: year he's spent another player. But that's not what makes
Speaker 2: it good or bad. There isn't a quarterback in football
Speaker 2: that if he was making fifty million a year you
Speaker 2: feel good about. But it's sixty million a year, You're like,
Speaker 2: what did we do? It's is he the guy? Is
Speaker 2: he not the guy? If he's the guy, then the
Speaker 2: price is the price, and sixty million or fifty five
Speaker 2: million or fifty two million, it's not distinction. If he's
Speaker 2: not the guy, then you're not gonna feel good at
Speaker 2: forty five million. Forget fifty forty five million. If he's
Speaker 2: not the guy, you're not gonna feel good about many. Well, yeah,
Speaker 2: of course you get.
Speaker 3: Making like thousand a year, right now, I take twenty two.
Speaker 3: You need those guys around you.
Speaker 2: He's not gonna take twenty That's not happen. So the
Speaker 2: the Niners could play real hardball with him with the
Speaker 2: leverage of you haven't made any money. Man, you've made
Speaker 2: three million bucks in this league, Like what? And you
Speaker 2: could play another year at a million bucks and then
Speaker 2: we decide. But you've already suffered a bunch of injuries.
Speaker 2: So maybe they will try to say, hey, man, you're
Speaker 2: gonna have Baker Mayfield's deal three years, one hundred million bucks.
Speaker 2: But the reporting is he wants Trevor's deal, and then
Speaker 2: some five to seventy five and by the way, he
Speaker 2: has a better resume than try. I understand that, but
Speaker 2: he looks at what Tua got, what Trevor got, what
Speaker 2: Dak got, and said, I'm more accomplished than certainly Tua
Speaker 2: and Trevor. It's an argument with Dak and so it
Speaker 2: is a very interesting spot that becomes more interesting if
Speaker 2: after one of the worst games of his career this
Speaker 2: past Thursday, he has another bad one against a kind
Speaker 2: of floundering Dolphins team. Jaggs Raiders is interesting only in
Speaker 2: this regard the Raiders desperately need to lose it. Now.
Speaker 2: You can say the Jags need to lose it too,
Speaker 2: but the Jags draft position is not the same level
Speaker 2: of importance for teams that aren't drafting a quarterback. Yeah,
Speaker 2: Jacksonville would love to be able to take Travis Hunter
Speaker 2: or whoever you know. The top non QB on their
Speaker 2: board is the Raiders, though right now are fighting with
Speaker 2: the Giants for the number one overall pick. But there
Speaker 2: are amazingly seven teams right now seven two or three wins,
Speaker 2: so the Raiders are one win away from all of it,
Speaker 2: going from potentially the number one pick to potentially the
Speaker 2: sixth or seventh pick. So this is a must lose
Speaker 2: for both teams, There's no way around it. But it's
Speaker 2: more of a must lose obviously for the for the Raiders,
Speaker 2: pardon me, Bucks Cowboys. Cowboys getting three and a half,
Speaker 2: the Bucks have to keep winning. Baker's top six in
Speaker 2: every passing category. I like the They're not one of
Speaker 2: my picks, but I like the Bucks in this spot.
Speaker 2: And then another massive line, green Bay laying fourteen and
Speaker 2: a half at home against the Saints. With the Saints
Speaker 2: quarterback situation in total disarray, obviously green Bay should take
Speaker 2: care of business. Okay, that leaves us with five games.
Speaker 2: Steelers Ravens is a game, Rams Jets is a game,
Speaker 2: pat Bills is a game. Panthers, who are the Panthers?
Speaker 2: The Cardinals Cardinals is a game. Pardon me? And Washington
Speaker 2: Philly is a game. We'll do those five picks plus
Speaker 2: Demonse's teaser, next quick break, right back, what's right? All right?
Speaker 2: Welcome back in What's right with Nick right last week,
Speaker 2: fourth straight winning week. Demonse three and two last week.
Speaker 2: So that means we are fourteen and six in the
Speaker 2: last four weeks of picks, which puts us six games
Speaker 2: above five hundred on the year forty thirty four and one.
Speaker 2: Last week, we had the Rams plus three at the Niners,
Speaker 2: they went out right, the Jets minus three at Jacksonville.
Speaker 2: That one was in question for a large portion of
Speaker 2: the game. But we got the win Bucks plus three
Speaker 2: at the Chargers. That one was never in question. And
Speaker 2: then two ones that we were on the wrong side of.
Speaker 2: Calnea laying two and a half against Dallas. Dallas played
Speaker 2: one of the best games it's played all year. And
Speaker 2: Detroit laying two and a half against Buffalo. Uh. Detroit
Speaker 2: tried to get back in this game, but obviously could
Speaker 2: never stop Josh Allen. So on the wrong side of
Speaker 2: that one. All right, first one this week, Demons.
Speaker 3: Yeah, Yeah, You've got Pittsburgh plus six and a half
Speaker 3: at Baltimore.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean this is I said this earlier in
Speaker 2: the year. Mike Tomlin getting more than a field goal
Speaker 2: in divisional games is an auto fire for me. Auto fire.
Speaker 2: Amazing fact. This is the first game ever Lamar has
Speaker 2: played at home against Pittsburgh with fans in the stands.
Speaker 2: He has missed the home game against the Steelers every
Speaker 2: year but the COVID year, which is seems impossible, but
Speaker 2: it's true. Steelers are eight against the spread in the
Speaker 2: history of their franchise when they're getting four or more
Speaker 2: against the Ravens. Obviously, Lamar uh has played his worst
Speaker 2: football against the Steelers, zero to five against the spread,
Speaker 2: one and four straight up, and in this matchup underdog
Speaker 2: is sixteen to two and one against the spread over
Speaker 2: the last decade, covering by almost a touchdown each time.
Speaker 2: And as we've said, Tomlin is an underdog against divisional
Speaker 2: opponent twenty six, nine and two, So it's just an
Speaker 2: auto fire Pittsburgh. Lamar struggles against this team. Now. I
Speaker 2: don't love the Pittsburgh injuries, particularly George Pickens. We'll see
Speaker 2: about TJ. Watt. That's not great. But the Steelers win
Speaker 2: the division by winning this weekend. The Ravens stay alive
Speaker 2: for the division by winning this weekend. I like Pittsburgh
Speaker 2: plus the points. I know you're a Lamar guy, Demonse,
Speaker 2: but I feel like you like my side of this
Speaker 2: one too.
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, flashing red lights when I saw this game. Yeah,
Speaker 3: I mean, I think Lamar can get it done. Interested
Speaker 3: to see how it is at home, but yeah, I mean,
Speaker 3: the Steelers just beat them earlier this year. Six and
Speaker 3: a half point undred dogs is kind of crazy, but.
Speaker 2: I mean, yeah, this this line should be two and
Speaker 2: a half, and it's six and a half. It is
Speaker 2: just And if you want to say because of the
Speaker 2: Pickens injury and potential Watt injury, you want to say
Speaker 2: it's three and a half, fine, But this is disrespectful
Speaker 2: to Pittsburgh. And it's Vegas continuing to tell you they
Speaker 2: think Baltimore is awesome and Pittsburgh's not that good, and
Speaker 2: I disagree with that. All right, next game.
Speaker 3: So next we've got the Rams at the Jets.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Rams laying three last week for the first time
Speaker 2: all year. We bet the Jets, and I understand this
Speaker 2: is a West Coast team going east. However, the Rams
Speaker 2: have to have this win. The Rams since their bye, Demons.
Speaker 2: How about this for the Rams, they started one and four.
Speaker 2: Since the bye, they are seven and two, the same
Speaker 2: record as the Vikings and the only teams with a
Speaker 2: better record than the Rams over the last ten weeks
Speaker 2: of football Eagles, Lions, Chiefs, Bills. So they have been
Speaker 2: for the last two and a half months one of
Speaker 2: the very best teams in the NFL. I don't trust
Speaker 2: the Jets defense against Stafford and Company. And the Jets
Speaker 2: just got their win. They're not going to finish the
Speaker 2: year on this horrific losing streak. The Rams have to
Speaker 2: have it. McVeigh by the way oddly seven to zero
Speaker 2: going west to East as a favorite, and they've always
Speaker 2: been a really good covering team. At the end of
Speaker 2: the year, fourteen and two against the spread in December,
Speaker 2: I think the Rams could could They're one of the
Speaker 2: teams that could win the Super Bowl. The Jets are
Speaker 2: one of the seven or eight worst teams in football.
Speaker 2: I'll take the Rams minus three next one.
Speaker 3: You've got New England plus fourteen and a half at Buffalo.
Speaker 2: Yeah. So this story went a little under the radar,
Speaker 2: which was after the game, Josh Allen got an X
Speaker 2: ray I think on his back because of a fall
Speaker 2: he took. Now he said he was fine and it
Speaker 2: was precautionary Soviet. Here's why I'm bringing that up. In
Speaker 2: a game they have no business losing there and Josh
Speaker 2: having such high usage the last couple weeks, They're just
Speaker 2: gonna keep the ball as much as they can out
Speaker 2: of his hands. No design. Josh Allen runs get the
Speaker 2: ball out, quick, run the football, just get out of
Speaker 2: there with a win that doesn't lend itself to a blowout.
Speaker 2: Drake May, on the other hand, has been trying to
Speaker 2: cover back doors spreads all year. It's a divisional game.
Speaker 2: I'm getting more than two touchdowns. It is not that
Speaker 2: I think New England can win. It's that I just
Speaker 2: think Buffalo is going to have a methodical, boring game
Speaker 2: plan as they go Patriots, Jets, Patriots to end the year. Also,
Speaker 2: bonus take here, I think that they are going to
Speaker 2: see on Saturday the Chiefs beat the Texans, and the
Speaker 2: dreams of the one seed will basically be dead if
Speaker 2: that happens. If the Chiefs beat the Texans, then the
Speaker 2: Bills path to the one seed would be they have
Speaker 2: to go undefeated and the Chiefs have to lose their
Speaker 2: final two games. And so I just don't think they're
Speaker 2: going to be you know, in laser show, blow the
Speaker 2: other team out mode. I'll take New England plus fourteen
Speaker 2: and a half, all right, Last time.
Speaker 3: You got Carolina plus four and a half versus Arizona.
Speaker 2: Yeah, so Arizona is in a weird spot where if
Speaker 2: you look at weird spots, the wrong word. But Arizona
Speaker 2: week two blew out the Rams when the Rams didn't
Speaker 2: have any of their didn't have their guys. Since then,
Speaker 2: they have wins by They beat the Niners by one,
Speaker 2: they beat the Chargers by two, they beat the Dolphins
Speaker 2: by one, They blew out the Bears and the Jets,
Speaker 2: and they obviously blew out the Patriots earlier or this
Speaker 2: past week, but earlier in the year, their wins were close.
Speaker 2: In the margins late game, you know, it could either
Speaker 2: team could win. I don't love. I didn't love honestly
Speaker 2: how they played, even in that Patriot game. It's just
Speaker 2: the Patriots can't get out of their own damn way,
Speaker 2: and they end up, you know, being up thirty to
Speaker 2: ten late in that game, end up winning thirty to seventeen.
Speaker 2: I could see the Panthers winning this game. I thought
Speaker 2: the Panthers had been playing really well and then obviously
Speaker 2: play Laiden egg against Dallas. But the Panthers, I don't
Speaker 2: think they are going to end their year on a
Speaker 2: seven game losing streak. I think they're gonna get a win.
Speaker 2: And even if they don't get a win. Uh, this
Speaker 2: feels like a yeah, this feels like a field goal game. Yeah,
Speaker 2: feel a divisional game in Carolina. Uh, not a divisional game.
Speaker 2: Pardon me. Arizona's in the West, Carolina's in the South.
Speaker 2: But in Carolina, getting four and a half points feels
Speaker 2: like a twenty one to seventeen, twenty four to twenty
Speaker 2: one type of game. This was, I will admit, the
Speaker 2: hardest one. I found four games I loved, and then
Speaker 2: one game I was like, well we need This was
Speaker 2: the fifth so if you're not tailing all my picks,
Speaker 2: this would be the one to leave out. But I
Speaker 2: like Carolina getting four and a half in this spot.
Speaker 2: And then the last one a game. This was my
Speaker 2: fourth one and a game I like a lot.
Speaker 3: Go ahead, you've got Washington plus three and a half
Speaker 3: versus Philly.
Speaker 2: Yeah you don't like this one, Demonsey. I can tell
Speaker 2: from the tone of your voice.
Speaker 3: Uh yeah, that's a that's a pretty up in the
Speaker 3: air one for me. Philly's humming. I mean they're looking
Speaker 3: very good, but but yeah, I trust you.
Speaker 2: There listen, Philly is humming Washington after their tough three
Speaker 2: game losing streak. You know, it's gotten back on track
Speaker 2: to a degree. The Saints game they were in full
Speaker 2: control of kind of took their eye off the ball,
Speaker 2: so to speak, and all of a sudden they're trying
Speaker 2: to stop a two point conversion to avoid or horrific loss.
Speaker 2: They also need one more win to lock up their
Speaker 2: playoff spot now, and I think even one more win
Speaker 2: officially won't lock it up, but to facto it would
Speaker 2: lock it up. I don't think Washington's going to win
Speaker 2: this game, but I do think getting three and a
Speaker 2: half points, I think they could win. And getting three
Speaker 2: and a half points is too big of a spread
Speaker 2: when Washington is healthier than it was during its losing streak, Jade,
Speaker 2: and I think is the Ribs finally aren't bothering him
Speaker 2: and he's playing great. And when you look at Washington
Speaker 2: this year, they their losses. Take out Week one to Tampa,
Speaker 2: they lose the Ravens by a score, the Steelers by one,
Speaker 2: the Eagles. That Eagles game the first time around was
Speaker 2: really weird because that game late in the third quarter
Speaker 2: was ten three Washington, and then there were some turnovers,
Speaker 2: some weird plays. Saquon scored two long touchdowns within thirty
Speaker 2: seconds of each other, and all of a sudden, Phillies
Speaker 2: blowing them out, and so I mean by a win
Speaker 2: probability standpoint, Washington was the favorite in that game with
Speaker 2: ten minutes left and they end up getting you know,
Speaker 2: they're down twenty six to ten, five game minutes left
Speaker 2: or five game minutes later. I think this is twenty
Speaker 2: seven to twenty four Philly and maybe twenty seven to
Speaker 2: twenty four Washington. So I'll take the divisional dog getting
Speaker 2: at least three and a half. So the picks are
Speaker 2: as follows Pittsburgh getting six and a half, the Rams
Speaker 2: laying three, New England getting fourteen and a half, Carolina
Speaker 2: getting four and a half, and Washington getting three and
Speaker 2: a half in this game. Now to Demonse's teaser, which
Speaker 2: I tried to warn him off of last week, I
Speaker 2: gave it a d. It sadly didn't win, but not
Speaker 2: for the reason that I thought it wouldn't. I didn't
Speaker 2: love that you crossed the zero with Cincinnati. Yeah, that
Speaker 2: one was the best leg. You were nervous about those
Speaker 2: twenty four points with the Giants, but luckily it was
Speaker 2: just enough sweat. But it was actually the Chiefs forcing
Speaker 2: six turnovers and blowing out the Browns well, beating them
Speaker 2: by fourteen. That ruined you. What do you have this week?
Speaker 3: This week is a two team seven and a half
Speaker 3: point teaser at minus one sixty three and the red
Speaker 3: blaring red lights I was talking about earlier Pittsburgh. I
Speaker 3: had to throw in there. We got them at plus
Speaker 3: fourteen against Baltimore, and then I teased through the zero
Speaker 3: again with Tampa Bay up to plus four against Dallas.
Speaker 3: I mean, a we obviously everything we talked about with
Speaker 3: the Steelers and the ravens Lamar needs to I mean
Speaker 3: not Lamar, but the Steelers. This is a this is
Speaker 3: a big spot. They're not gonna get blown out fourteen points,
Speaker 3: come on out and then.
Speaker 2: I'm fine with that. I'm no, I'm fine with the
Speaker 2: Steelers leg not taking to him. But listen, I think
Speaker 2: you're gonna win this one. I'm gonna be honest with you,
Speaker 2: but I don't like it on general principle of teaser value,
Speaker 2: where you're laying one sixty I you're I just don't.
Speaker 3: Have a hunter, like you just know something you can't
Speaker 3: You're like, oh, you know, remember the rule? Like if
Speaker 3: you know it, you know it. You know.
Speaker 2: I feel like you're going away from what got you
Speaker 2: on your long winning streak. I'm rooting for you. I'm
Speaker 2: giving you a.
Speaker 3: C minus giving as.
Speaker 2: On this one. It is an upgrade from last week
Speaker 2: and hopefully it wins. All right, what's the offer this week?
Speaker 2: I don't know if you have it in front of you.
Speaker 3: Uh yeah, So we are headed to Atlanta. So the
Speaker 3: last two or three games of two or three of
Speaker 3: Pennis's college football games, he led the team to a
Speaker 3: fueld goal drive in the first play, I mean in
Speaker 3: the first drive. So we're gonna go off that same logic.
Speaker 3: So he's plus four hundred to lead them to a
Speaker 3: field goal in the first first drive again, or since
Speaker 3: young Wake who is out, you could take that they
Speaker 3: miss it at plus nineteen hundred. Okay, you like either
Speaker 3: of those?
Speaker 2: No I I I'm gonna go ahead and say I
Speaker 2: don't like either of those, and I'm going to I've
Speaker 2: never done first drive result bet, and I'm gonna keep
Speaker 2: that streak going and decline the offer. I would take
Speaker 2: punt as the best option, but that's plus one point fifteen.
Speaker 2: I mean, I gotta tell you, this feels like a
Speaker 2: crummy market. You're touchdown. You gotta say if it's passing
Speaker 2: or rushing your I don't think, guys, I'm telling you
Speaker 2: right now, I don't think the sharp betters of America
Speaker 2: are betting first touchdown for first drive results. And I'm
Speaker 2: gonna go ahead and stay out of that one myself. Well,
Speaker 2: I just don't like it. I'm just not I am
Speaker 2: just personally not gonna have a part of that, all right.
Speaker 2: Hope you guys enjoyed the audio version of today's show.
Speaker 2: Next week's schedule we'll call it in flux. Right now,
Speaker 2: the plan is to have Christmas week off for the pod,
Speaker 2: but since Demonsday will be in New York, maybe we'll
Speaker 2: do something in person while he's here. I'm not sure,
Speaker 2: but right now, just be checking your feed. Hit the
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