WEBVTT - 2009 Predictions Score Card 0:00:00.320 --> 0:00:02.880 Brought to you by the reinvented two thousand twelve camera. 0:00:03.200 --> 0:00:08.920 It's ready. Are you get in touch with technologies with 0:00:09.080 --> 0:00:17.799 tech Stuff from how stuff works dot com. Hello there, everybody, 0:00:17.840 --> 0:00:19.960 Welcome to tech Stuff. My name is Chris Poulette. I 0:00:20.000 --> 0:00:22.720 am the tech editor here at how stuff works dot com. 0:00:22.760 --> 0:00:25.400 Sitting across from me, as usual as he was just 0:00:25.520 --> 0:00:30.400 about a year ago, is Jonathan Strickland, a senior writer. 0:00:31.160 --> 0:00:36.120 I predict that this podcast will go smoothly. Well, let's 0:00:36.159 --> 0:00:38.279 see how that prediction did. About a year ago, we 0:00:38.280 --> 0:00:41.680 were actually uh talking about our predictions for two thousand 0:00:41.760 --> 0:00:43.919 nine and what we thought was going to happen in 0:00:44.240 --> 0:00:47.760 technology over the course of a year. That was kind 0:00:47.760 --> 0:00:50.120 of surprising because you know, that was the end of 0:00:50.159 --> 0:00:53.640 our first It wasn't even a full year we've been podcasting. Nope, 0:00:53.720 --> 0:00:55.680 it's been about six months. So who knew that we 0:00:55.720 --> 0:00:59.000 would would still be here? Yeah, of I know most 0:00:59.000 --> 0:01:02.800 of our listeners in Well, yeah, we thought we would 0:01:02.800 --> 0:01:05.640 look over the list of predictions we made and see 0:01:05.640 --> 0:01:09.360 how we did. Um, so let's I'm gonna start with 0:01:09.400 --> 0:01:12.360 one of Chris's predictions. Uh, we actually made up this 0:01:12.400 --> 0:01:15.840 list and uh we kind of did a cursory glance 0:01:15.880 --> 0:01:18.520 and gave a yea or nay as to whether or 0:01:18.560 --> 0:01:22.440 not each one had come true. But I think that 0:01:22.520 --> 0:01:25.440 some of these are open for debate. So but the 0:01:25.480 --> 0:01:28.040 first one I don't think is which was that Chris 0:01:28.040 --> 0:01:32.759 predicted that Steve Jobs would name a successor at Apple. Uh. 0:01:33.000 --> 0:01:35.559 He he kind of waffled on whether or not Steve 0:01:35.640 --> 0:01:38.520 Jobs would actually step down officially from Apple. And because 0:01:38.560 --> 0:01:41.880 remember this was back when we knew that Jobs was 0:01:42.880 --> 0:01:44.679 something was going on with his health, he had not 0:01:44.800 --> 0:01:48.760 quite he had not officially made his um announcement about 0:01:48.800 --> 0:01:52.640 taking leave. I think at that point, ye, it was 0:01:52.680 --> 0:01:54.960 a long time. Yeah, it does right, well, I mean 0:01:55.000 --> 0:01:57.440 because it was we knew something was up. We knew 0:01:57.440 --> 0:01:59.400 something was up. There were a lot of there's a 0:01:59.440 --> 0:02:02.040 lot of conjecture at the time that he was possibly 0:02:02.120 --> 0:02:06.440 having a remission with his cancer issues that he had 0:02:06.480 --> 0:02:10.760 had years before. And so Chris predicted that Steve Jobs would, 0:02:11.040 --> 0:02:14.720 in order to uh to be diligent in his duties 0:02:14.760 --> 0:02:18.200 as CEO of Apple, name a successor, which has not happened. 0:02:19.280 --> 0:02:22.480 So that's that's an X in that column. Let me 0:02:22.520 --> 0:02:27.520 just make a big X, all right, you know, you 0:02:27.520 --> 0:02:29.560 didn't have to use the red marker for that. I 0:02:29.639 --> 0:02:33.119 know I didn't have to. Um, okay, well we'll stick 0:02:33.160 --> 0:02:36.480 with Apple. And one of Jonathan's the uh he predicted 0:02:36.520 --> 0:02:40.880 that the Mac desktop computer would go away and it's 0:02:40.960 --> 0:02:44.679 still there. Yes it is. Yeah, that that one I was. Um, 0:02:44.720 --> 0:02:48.240 I was not right. There are new Imax out and 0:02:48.320 --> 0:02:52.519 they are beautiful and uh well, honestly though you had 0:02:52.560 --> 0:02:55.519 you had reasonable reason to believe that, because I mean 0:02:56.080 --> 0:03:00.000 netbooks and notebooks and all kinds of mobile computing devices, 0:03:00.080 --> 0:03:03.720 is even smartphones. They've been hot, flying off the shelves, 0:03:04.120 --> 0:03:07.959 and one might think that, you know, Apple, which is 0:03:08.040 --> 0:03:11.800 known for doing such crazy things as eliminating the floppy 0:03:11.880 --> 0:03:17.079 disk drive FROMMA, might go so far as to get 0:03:17.160 --> 0:03:22.120 rid of the desktop machine entirely. And I think, I think, um, 0:03:22.200 --> 0:03:24.200 I think people have made a good point and that 0:03:24.320 --> 0:03:26.280 there are a lot of legitimate reasons why you might 0:03:26.360 --> 0:03:30.320 want a larger desktop unit as opposed to a laptop 0:03:30.400 --> 0:03:33.960 or other mobile computing device, including things like if you're 0:03:33.960 --> 0:03:37.320 doing video editing or or any kind of media work. Um, 0:03:37.400 --> 0:03:40.080 you probably want a nice large screen to work with, 0:03:40.200 --> 0:03:43.840 and laptops just don't have that. I mean, once you 0:03:43.880 --> 0:03:45.240 get to a point where you have a nice large 0:03:45.280 --> 0:03:47.680 screen with a laptop, it's not no longer a laptop. 0:03:47.720 --> 0:03:51.120 It's just too big. And while you can use some 0:03:51.200 --> 0:03:54.080 devices where you can maybe hook up a second screen 0:03:54.720 --> 0:03:58.880 to a laptop or other mobile computing device, uh that's 0:03:58.920 --> 0:04:01.240 not ideal really. I mean, you could plug it into 0:04:01.240 --> 0:04:03.800 a dock and run a nice big monitor off of it. 0:04:03.840 --> 0:04:06.880 But the thing is a lot of the uh uh, 0:04:06.920 --> 0:04:10.560 the processors that you see in desktop computers are just 0:04:10.640 --> 0:04:13.840 take too much power um to use in a laptop 0:04:13.880 --> 0:04:17.200 computer when you're not hooked up to a power source. Um. 0:04:17.279 --> 0:04:19.320 So if you're out on the road. I mean, that's 0:04:19.320 --> 0:04:20.719 one of the things that people expect is to have 0:04:20.720 --> 0:04:22.480 a nice long battery life. Well, if you have a 0:04:22.520 --> 0:04:25.440 super heavy duty processor and it that's the battery life's 0:04:25.480 --> 0:04:28.279 kind of just you know, it's gonna drop dramatically because 0:04:28.560 --> 0:04:30.520 that processor is using so much power. So I think 0:04:30.560 --> 0:04:33.520 that that niche is still around for a little while longer, 0:04:33.560 --> 0:04:36.400 although I I you know, I think laptops are out 0:04:36.400 --> 0:04:39.520 selling you know, both Windows and Mac laptops are out 0:04:39.520 --> 0:04:42.200 selling the desktops these days. Yeah, so we'll we'll keep 0:04:42.240 --> 0:04:43.400 an eye on it. I mean, I don't think the 0:04:43.440 --> 0:04:45.520 desktop form factor is going away quite as quickly as 0:04:45.560 --> 0:04:49.159 I imagined back a year ago. Uh, let's move to 0:04:49.160 --> 0:04:51.320 the next one. Um, hey, we gotta we got a 0:04:51.360 --> 0:04:55.960 ringer here. So Chris predicted that there would be rumors 0:04:56.000 --> 0:04:59.640 about the next gadget from Apple sometime in two thousand nine. 0:04:59.640 --> 0:05:03.560 Now the softball. But but no, not not entirely a softball, 0:05:03.680 --> 0:05:07.080 because we're not talking about an update to a gadget, right, 0:05:07.160 --> 0:05:10.080 We're not talking about a new kind of iPhone or whatever. 0:05:10.600 --> 0:05:14.440 We're talking about a totally new gadget. And you nailed 0:05:14.440 --> 0:05:18.880 it because the Apple tablet became the rumor of two 0:05:18.920 --> 0:05:22.720 thousand nine. Uh, and I mean the non existent Apple tablet, right, 0:05:22.720 --> 0:05:24.960 it may very well carry over to be the rumor 0:05:25.080 --> 0:05:27.400 of two thousand ten. The way we're going now, I mean, 0:05:27.440 --> 0:05:29.919 you keep on hearing things about people saying, oh, the 0:05:29.920 --> 0:05:34.640 Apple tablet has been delayed. Look, Apple never announced the tablet. 0:05:34.760 --> 0:05:37.039 At least as as of the recording of this podcast, 0:05:37.080 --> 0:05:41.080 Apple has not announced any plans for a tablet device. Now, 0:05:41.200 --> 0:05:44.120 there's a lot of evidence, circumstantial evidence that points to 0:05:44.160 --> 0:05:47.159 them developing a tablet. But if you haven't announced it, 0:05:47.200 --> 0:05:49.839 and you haven't given a release date. You can't say 0:05:49.880 --> 0:05:53.000 that the project has been delayed from an official standpoint 0:05:53.520 --> 0:05:58.520 because there was no date to overshoot. So I think, uh, 0:05:58.560 --> 0:06:00.240 I think we're gonna have to keep our eyes open 0:06:00.279 --> 0:06:03.400 see if this rumored device shows up. But yep, that's 0:06:03.400 --> 0:06:05.360 a win in your column. So let me just put 0:06:05.360 --> 0:06:10.200 a big X mark next to this. Wow, I guess 0:06:10.240 --> 0:06:12.360 I should have chosen a different shape and color because 0:06:12.360 --> 0:06:17.080 this is gonna be really confusing when I'm all done. Alright, Um, 0:06:17.200 --> 0:06:23.040 so you actually get an X here for no Apple netbook. 0:06:23.320 --> 0:06:28.400 There is not an Apple netbook, right, which again not 0:06:28.560 --> 0:06:32.159 a huge prediction, because Apple executives had gone so far 0:06:32.240 --> 0:06:35.279 as to specifically say they were not interested in developing 0:06:35.279 --> 0:06:39.080 a netbook because for them to develop a netbook that 0:06:39.120 --> 0:06:42.120 would meet the price point of your average netbooks, it 0:06:42.120 --> 0:06:46.719 would require them to, uh to not live up to 0:06:46.839 --> 0:06:50.680 their standards that they had established for their products, and 0:06:50.720 --> 0:06:53.120 so there was no way they could develop a product 0:06:53.560 --> 0:06:56.000 at that price point that was not a piece of crap. 0:06:56.560 --> 0:07:00.000 That's pretty much a direct quote. Alright. Alright, so net 0:07:00.200 --> 0:07:02.520 we had a web office launches and goes head to 0:07:02.560 --> 0:07:06.760 head with Google Docs, mm hmmm, which where does that go? 0:07:07.160 --> 0:07:10.440 Because there is a version of Office for the web, 0:07:10.440 --> 0:07:13.320 but it's not out. Yeah, it's still in beta. So 0:07:13.400 --> 0:07:15.600 I would say this is gray. So I'm gonna mark 0:07:15.680 --> 0:07:20.800 this with a big red X right here and there 0:07:20.920 --> 0:07:23.400 we go. Three red x is so far. So they 0:07:24.120 --> 0:07:27.360 they mean different things. But that's okay. I will remember 0:07:27.400 --> 0:07:29.239 that when we get to the end. A little concerned 0:07:29.280 --> 0:07:35.520 about this style. Um, oh, here's here's a win for you. Um, 0:07:35.560 --> 0:07:40.040 you've got to win. This is a partial win. Well okay, Yeah, 0:07:40.360 --> 0:07:44.920 Windows seven it's out, and you predicted last year that 0:07:45.000 --> 0:07:48.240 it was going to have a Microsoft was gonna have 0:07:48.280 --> 0:07:52.920 a hard time convincing people to adopt it after um 0:07:53.080 --> 0:07:59.080 the uh success. It hadn't with Windows Vista. It hung 0:07:59.080 --> 0:08:05.360 in the initial don't. It's a very very Douglas Adams 0:08:05.560 --> 0:08:07.920 kind of way of putting it now So so really, 0:08:07.920 --> 0:08:10.240 what I was saying was that because Windows Vista was 0:08:10.800 --> 0:08:14.520 considered by many people to be a failure, it's not 0:08:14.640 --> 0:08:17.320 necessarily even even through the whole I would say, through 0:08:17.320 --> 0:08:20.080 the whole life cycle of the product, many people, not 0:08:20.160 --> 0:08:23.960 necessarily Microsoft, but other people would consider the product to 0:08:23.960 --> 0:08:27.280 be a failure. And um, and I said that that 0:08:27.280 --> 0:08:31.640 would make people more reluctant to adopt Windows seven because 0:08:31.640 --> 0:08:34.920 it's an unknown quantity. Well, the reviews for Windows seven 0:08:34.920 --> 0:08:37.120 have been very positive. People have rushed out to purchase 0:08:37.240 --> 0:08:41.000 new Windows seven computers, So in that case, I was 0:08:41.080 --> 0:08:44.600 not correct. But what I was really thinking, i'd like 0:08:44.679 --> 0:08:47.600 to think since a year later and I can't really remember, 0:08:48.000 --> 0:08:50.800 but I was really thinking about things like corporations, you know, 0:08:50.960 --> 0:08:54.360 big companies, would they would they adopt Windows seven machines 0:08:54.480 --> 0:08:57.000 or would they wait and stick stick with Windows XP 0:08:57.160 --> 0:09:02.840 machines until they absolutely had to upgrade? And that's seems 0:09:02.880 --> 0:09:04.280 to be the case. It seems like a lot of 0:09:04.320 --> 0:09:08.600 corporations are have learned a lesson from Windows Vista and 0:09:08.600 --> 0:09:11.480 have decided that, you know, they've got legacy systems that 0:09:11.559 --> 0:09:14.320 run on XP that may not run on Windows seven, 0:09:14.440 --> 0:09:16.800 and they want to They don't want to get burned, 0:09:16.840 --> 0:09:18.559 so they want to make sure that Windows seven is 0:09:18.600 --> 0:09:21.800 a stable environment before moving to it, which is why 0:09:21.840 --> 0:09:25.360 I consider this a partial win. I think, uh, I 0:09:25.360 --> 0:09:30.120 think from a consumer standpoint, no, there's been no no 0:09:30.440 --> 0:09:34.000 perception problem with Windows seven, But from from a uh 0:09:34.040 --> 0:09:39.680 like a commercial standpoint with businesses, I think there still is. Yeah. Actually, uh, 0:09:39.840 --> 0:09:42.760 I have worked for a company that was large enough 0:09:42.960 --> 0:09:46.800 to the point where they were reluctant to install the 0:09:46.840 --> 0:09:49.560 next version of the operating system until they felt it 0:09:49.600 --> 0:09:52.319 was complete. For example, when an XP came out, they 0:09:52.320 --> 0:09:57.760 decided to upgrade two Windows two thousand from so because 0:09:57.800 --> 0:10:00.280 they wanted about a mistake. Well to see that's thing 0:10:00.320 --> 0:10:03.319 they had all finally all the patches in place, did it? 0:10:03.400 --> 0:10:06.760 But Windows two thousand was awful? Well okay, well you 0:10:06.800 --> 0:10:10.040 have that. I mean, they were very large companies are 0:10:10.080 --> 0:10:14.280 often reluctant to move up as a result. And there's 0:10:14.320 --> 0:10:17.199 there's another factor that plays into it too, the recession, 0:10:17.720 --> 0:10:20.600 because people don't want to spend the money to upgrade 0:10:20.600 --> 0:10:23.320 the software when XP is doing okay, sure them. So 0:10:23.679 --> 0:10:26.040 that that I mean, there has been. It hasn't been 0:10:26.080 --> 0:10:29.319 selling as well as Microsoft had hoped, at least after 0:10:29.360 --> 0:10:33.319 that first initial rush, although I think it's been somewhat steady. Um. 0:10:33.360 --> 0:10:34.959 I don't think it's as bad as everybody thought it 0:10:35.000 --> 0:10:36.680 was gonna be, either a lot of people were saying 0:10:36.679 --> 0:10:40.720 it was going to be you know anyway, all right, 0:10:40.720 --> 0:10:43.440 so let's move on. You predicted that the Xbox seven 0:10:43.520 --> 0:10:46.480 twenty would be announced at E three ha ha, it 0:10:46.679 --> 0:10:51.080 was not not correct. X Microsoft has not mentioned anything 0:10:51.160 --> 0:10:54.960 about the successor to the Xbox three sixty. Uh in fact, 0:10:55.040 --> 0:10:58.360 project and at all, which is the next really big 0:10:58.400 --> 0:11:02.520 innovative can troll interface for the Xbox three sixty That 0:11:02.600 --> 0:11:07.080 was that was being marketed specifically as a three sixty product, 0:11:07.240 --> 0:11:11.360 which kind of suggests that they have plans for for 0:11:11.400 --> 0:11:14.840 a few more years of three sixty life before moving 0:11:14.840 --> 0:11:17.079 on to the next system, although not necessarily could turn 0:11:17.120 --> 0:11:19.680 out the natal really is the first step to a 0:11:19.800 --> 0:11:22.320 news system, but we'll have to keep our eyes open. 0:11:22.960 --> 0:11:27.360 Next okay, next, um oh here, look another checkbox in 0:11:27.400 --> 0:11:30.920 the wind column. I'll just put a big check but 0:11:31.040 --> 0:11:37.319 that one. Yeah, okay. The Google OS is out. Yeah, 0:11:37.480 --> 0:11:40.240 the web based operating system. I said that there would 0:11:40.320 --> 0:11:42.440 Google would come out with a web based operating system. 0:11:42.480 --> 0:11:45.880 And now we have Chromos. Now, granted, Chromos is not 0:11:46.040 --> 0:11:50.160 available for purchase until next year, so but you know 0:11:50.240 --> 0:11:54.240 it's it's definitely and there's developer copies. If you're a developer, 0:11:54.280 --> 0:11:56.160 you can get your hands on one, and you can 0:11:56.240 --> 0:12:00.240 you can create applications for the Chromos. But yeah, it's 0:12:00.280 --> 0:12:04.280 not it's not on any commercial netbooks yet, which that's 0:12:04.320 --> 0:12:08.160 the main market for that our netbooks. So you said 0:12:08.160 --> 0:12:10.559 that would be a quiet year for Nintendo. At most 0:12:10.600 --> 0:12:13.440 you said there'd be a new peripheral announced. I think 0:12:13.480 --> 0:12:15.400 that's pretty safe to say that it was a pretty 0:12:15.440 --> 0:12:19.560 quiet year for Nintendo. Another softball except I mean, we 0:12:19.600 --> 0:12:22.440 even saw that WE sales for the first time lagged 0:12:22.440 --> 0:12:25.319 behind PS three sales in September. Yeah, so I mean 0:12:25.360 --> 0:12:28.280 that's big news for Nintendo. Not good news, but it 0:12:28.360 --> 0:12:31.920 definitely was a quiet year. I if you talk about peripherals, 0:12:31.920 --> 0:12:34.400 I would say that maybe the WE Motion Plus it's 0:12:34.440 --> 0:12:37.160 probably the closest to a new peripheral. Yeah, well, I 0:12:37.160 --> 0:12:40.680 mean anything big. Of course, they had the the balance board, 0:12:40.720 --> 0:12:42.560 which was the last one, and that was for the 0:12:42.640 --> 0:12:46.160 end of last year because and then plus was really 0:12:46.200 --> 0:12:49.680 more of an enhancement than an actual new perisher. Alright, 0:12:49.840 --> 0:12:52.600 moving on, unless you have that you know, new uh 0:12:52.880 --> 0:12:56.240 golf club thing that you clip on for the tyger 0:12:56.280 --> 0:13:00.440 Woods game chase after the SUV. Al Right, so let's 0:13:00.480 --> 0:13:05.760 move on. Um oh, look, another win for Jonathan another 0:13:05.800 --> 0:13:12.800 big check mark. He predicted that phone sales would take off, well, 0:13:12.880 --> 0:13:16.120 actually would would push Android up to new heights and hey, 0:13:16.200 --> 0:13:20.840 look a bunch of Android phones. Yeah. So when Android 0:13:20.840 --> 0:13:22.880 first came out in the United States, it was only 0:13:22.920 --> 0:13:25.480 available on one hand set for the longest time. It's 0:13:25.520 --> 0:13:28.040 the HTCG one, which I am looking at right now 0:13:28.080 --> 0:13:30.240 because that happens to be my phone. Well, now there 0:13:30.240 --> 0:13:32.680 are a whole bunch of them. Yeah, and once it 0:13:32.840 --> 0:13:36.040 once it moved to Horizon, I was thinking, Okay, now 0:13:36.280 --> 0:13:38.800 Android really come on, come into its own because Verizon 0:13:38.920 --> 0:13:41.320 is in the United States the largest cell phone carrier. 0:13:41.440 --> 0:13:43.520 So yeah, hey, what do you know a prediction that 0:13:43.559 --> 0:13:46.320 I got spot on. Now. Granted, the only other option 0:13:46.360 --> 0:13:48.040 at that point would have been for Android to kind 0:13:48.040 --> 0:13:50.800 of wither and die, which I guess could have also happened, 0:13:50.800 --> 0:13:54.200 but fortunately did not. So moving on, let's see here 0:13:54.360 --> 0:13:58.240 um work on the PS four and the end of 0:13:58.400 --> 0:14:00.880 PS three. So I guess this is that Sony would 0:14:00.920 --> 0:14:03.920 announce that the successor to the PS three was in 0:14:03.960 --> 0:14:06.440 the works and that the they were going to slowly 0:14:06.480 --> 0:14:09.840 phase out the PS three. No, no, I think you 0:14:09.880 --> 0:14:14.959 actually pointed out that I was being a little uh uh. Yeah. 0:14:15.080 --> 0:14:18.800 To to end, the PSS said that that they they 0:14:18.840 --> 0:14:23.080 see a ten year lifespan in their consoles, which yeah, 0:14:23.400 --> 0:14:25.920 which means that we're halfway through. We still have another 0:14:25.960 --> 0:14:30.400 half to go. Okay, but they did uh end of 0:14:30.440 --> 0:14:34.200 life the older style PS three in favor of the 0:14:34.520 --> 0:14:36.600 new slimmer mark. I will, I will put a medium 0:14:36.720 --> 0:14:39.560 sized X mark. I'm just trying to salvage I'm still 0:14:39.560 --> 0:14:43.920 wrong and there we go. Okay, so oh well, UM, 0:14:44.000 --> 0:14:45.880 I don't know. This is sort of a maybe. Yeah, 0:14:45.920 --> 0:14:52.200 this one I make or break year for Blue ray, 0:14:49.560 --> 0:14:54.480 which is what's been for the last several years. What 0:14:54.480 --> 0:14:56.280 what again? This was gonna be one of those where 0:14:56.280 --> 0:14:58.960 I thought that two thousand nine would be the year 0:14:59.040 --> 0:15:02.120 when either Blue ray sales would finally start picking up 0:15:02.160 --> 0:15:04.920 and really give life to the format, or they would 0:15:05.400 --> 0:15:08.160 they would just falter so much that people would start 0:15:08.200 --> 0:15:10.880 to companies would start to abandon the format, like movie 0:15:10.880 --> 0:15:14.880 studios would just stop producing disks because the profit margin 0:15:14.920 --> 0:15:19.400 wouldn't be great enough. Um. I'd say that there's been 0:15:19.480 --> 0:15:23.440 incremental improvement, especially once the PS three's price dropped. I 0:15:23.480 --> 0:15:25.760 think that's really helped Blue ray quite a bit. But 0:15:25.800 --> 0:15:28.560 I don't think it's not the meteoric rise that I 0:15:28.640 --> 0:15:31.760 was thinking would need to happen in two thousand nine. 0:15:32.120 --> 0:15:34.600 So I'm gonna say that that's just gonna be a 0:15:34.640 --> 0:15:39.560 small check mark right here, all right, and let's say, oh, 0:15:39.840 --> 0:15:41.840 that means I gotta read the next one. So the 0:15:42.000 --> 0:15:47.280 Linux community will make a big move in operating system adoption. Well, 0:15:47.720 --> 0:15:50.960 we saw some pretty high profile Linux distributions come out, 0:15:51.480 --> 0:15:54.960 and people who are Linux users really like them. I 0:15:55.040 --> 0:15:59.000 just don't know how many people adopted Linux. Yeah, I 0:15:59.400 --> 0:16:01.800 still think, Um, you know, honestly, I think a lot 0:16:01.800 --> 0:16:04.600 of people are confused. People who are who aren't really 0:16:04.680 --> 0:16:07.400 tech eas are a little bit confused by all the 0:16:07.400 --> 0:16:12.400 different distributions. I mean, they don't necessarily understand works. There's 0:16:12.480 --> 0:16:17.960 usually just one current version of any particular operating system, 0:16:18.000 --> 0:16:19.960 like if you if you talk about mac os, yes 0:16:20.000 --> 0:16:23.080 there are multiple versions, but there's only one current version, 0:16:23.120 --> 0:16:27.560 like one specific one that's that's that's being updated right now. Um. 0:16:27.880 --> 0:16:31.280 Whereas we talk about Lenox, hundreds of distributions. So and 0:16:31.280 --> 0:16:33.320 that's what I meant about how Lenox works. They don't 0:16:33.400 --> 0:16:37.040 understand necessarily that it's supported by a whole community of 0:16:37.080 --> 0:16:40.760 people that is not really owned by anybody. Uh you know, 0:16:40.880 --> 0:16:44.640 it's owned by everybody but you know, I do think 0:16:44.640 --> 0:16:46.880 it probably gained some ground, and I heard many, many 0:16:46.880 --> 0:16:50.480 positive things. But yes, I'm afraid, Uh, I don't. I 0:16:50.480 --> 0:16:53.720 haven't seen anything that suggests that the new versions of 0:16:53.840 --> 0:16:57.080 Linux released this year have caused a surge in the 0:16:57.160 --> 0:17:03.200 number of Linux users. Ex. Oh, hey, look at this, 0:17:03.400 --> 0:17:08.120 cloud computing becomes a household term. Three checkmarks. Oh yeah, 0:17:08.200 --> 0:17:12.760 this is a smaller check mark, maybe three small check Well. No, 0:17:13.080 --> 0:17:16.080 it has become a much more favorite term, whether it's 0:17:16.280 --> 0:17:20.960 household term. Yeah, I don't think necessarily that Jane, average 0:17:21.040 --> 0:17:24.280 Jane housewife is talking about cloud computing, um, but she 0:17:24.359 --> 0:17:28.439 probably uses it. Yeah, So cloud computing I think, got 0:17:28.480 --> 0:17:32.720 a lot more uh noticed this past year, both for 0:17:32.760 --> 0:17:35.280 good and bad reasons, for things like think about like 0:17:35.320 --> 0:17:37.960 when when Gmail went down and Google Apps went down. 0:17:38.560 --> 0:17:41.080 That that made the news and people started thinking, oh, 0:17:41.480 --> 0:17:44.280 can I trust my documents to things like Google Docs 0:17:44.320 --> 0:17:46.800 because if the server goes down, how do I access 0:17:46.840 --> 0:17:49.119 my information? Well, that actually brought a lot of attention 0:17:49.119 --> 0:17:52.400 to cloud computing. Not positive attention necessarily, but it did 0:17:52.600 --> 0:17:55.920 raise questions in people's minds about is this the right 0:17:55.960 --> 0:17:59.160 way to go? Does it make sense? Is my data secure? 0:17:59.600 --> 0:18:03.320 Is it ivan can Uh is it really better than 0:18:03.359 --> 0:18:08.400 storing things on a on a local media storage device? Um? 0:18:08.440 --> 0:18:12.080 So I think uh. I think it's definitely in more 0:18:12.200 --> 0:18:16.399 minds now than it was this time last year. And 0:18:16.480 --> 0:18:19.399 here's one that's related to that one of yours that 0:18:19.480 --> 0:18:21.800 two thousand nine would be the year of the netbook. 0:18:22.080 --> 0:18:24.919 And I think that's a that's a big big X 0:18:25.000 --> 0:18:27.760 right there, meaning that of course that you got that 0:18:27.800 --> 0:18:32.000 exactly right. So this is a big right red X here, 0:18:32.560 --> 0:18:37.920 and uh yeah, that's what that one means. So anyway, Yeah, 0:18:38.359 --> 0:18:42.400 I would say the netbooks definitely are are here to stay. 0:18:42.440 --> 0:18:44.760 I mean they they're more popular this year than they 0:18:44.760 --> 0:18:47.760 were last year. I wrote an article recently where I 0:18:47.800 --> 0:18:50.920 saw that within the second quarter of two thousand and eight, 0:18:51.359 --> 0:18:55.280 netbook sales accounted for around I think five percent. I think, 0:18:55.440 --> 0:18:59.119 if I recall correctly, around five of all mobile computer sales, 0:18:59.480 --> 0:19:01.560 and that's say quarter in two thousand nine it was 0:19:01.840 --> 0:19:06.520 closer to that's a pretty big jump. So I think 0:19:06.560 --> 0:19:08.600 you could say this was the year of the netbook. Now. 0:19:08.640 --> 0:19:10.960 Whether or not people like netbooks, I think that's still 0:19:11.040 --> 0:19:13.520 up for debate, because I'm not sure everyone knows what 0:19:13.560 --> 0:19:16.400 they're getting into when they buy one. But they definitely 0:19:16.400 --> 0:19:19.000 were very popular, I think mainly because of their price 0:19:19.040 --> 0:19:25.960 point and because they're so mobile. Um so Facebook, you 0:19:26.040 --> 0:19:30.119 predicted that they would put the uh do the fatal 0:19:30.160 --> 0:19:33.240 move on my Space and they a. My Space is 0:19:33.280 --> 0:19:36.240 bleeding pretty badly, but they don't seem to be completely dead. 0:19:36.760 --> 0:19:38.600 My Space is not dead, but I would argue this 0:19:38.640 --> 0:19:43.280 is still a a moderately sized check mark in my college. 0:19:43.280 --> 0:19:45.440 No no no, no, yeah, I mean they dealt them some 0:19:45.520 --> 0:19:48.760 serious damage this year because my Space is still around. Sure, 0:19:49.119 --> 0:19:51.440 but I think I think my Space is slowly turning 0:19:51.480 --> 0:19:53.560 into more of a content site and less of a 0:19:53.600 --> 0:19:56.359 social networking site, especially now that it looks like my 0:19:56.440 --> 0:20:00.159 Space is going to adopt Facebook Connect as part of 0:20:00.640 --> 0:20:02.399 their system, so that you would be able to do 0:20:02.480 --> 0:20:05.920 things like link to band pages on my Space through 0:20:05.920 --> 0:20:08.959 your Facebook account, because that's really what my Space has 0:20:09.040 --> 0:20:12.080 kind of become. It's become like the place for bands 0:20:12.200 --> 0:20:15.240 and band pages. That's something that my Space does really 0:20:15.280 --> 0:20:18.240 well that Facebook does not do really well. Unfortunately for 0:20:18.359 --> 0:20:21.680 my Space. Facebook does pretty much everything else better than 0:20:21.680 --> 0:20:24.560 my Space does. Yeah, yeah, I agree, all right, So 0:20:24.840 --> 0:20:29.320 let's see Twitter may go away. Huh. Let me check 0:20:29.359 --> 0:20:32.040 my Twitter account and see if Chris got that right. Alright, 0:20:32.280 --> 0:20:35.359 let's see. Oh I think I'm sorry, this is gonna 0:20:35.400 --> 0:20:41.479 be at least seven x is. Well, you know, I 0:20:41.520 --> 0:20:43.560 have to and in my defense, I have to point 0:20:43.600 --> 0:20:46.879 out that, you know, Twitter has, as far as I know, 0:20:47.040 --> 0:20:51.159 still no business model. It's still not making money at 0:20:51.240 --> 0:20:54.240 least not generating revenue. Yes, but it has many, many 0:20:54.240 --> 0:20:57.720 people now who have more than a million followers on it. So, um, 0:20:57.760 --> 0:21:00.199 I still don't know that it's going to survive on 0:21:00.240 --> 0:21:03.640 its own forever. But I think now I think it's 0:21:03.680 --> 0:21:06.320 around this stay. Eventually, something is gonna have to happen 0:21:06.320 --> 0:21:08.960 for Twitter to be able to stay around. But uh, yeah, 0:21:09.000 --> 0:21:11.720 in two thousand nine it was there was a one 0:21:11.800 --> 0:21:14.600 billion dollar valuation on Twitter. Now, whether or not that 0:21:14.640 --> 0:21:16.720 would ever actually stand up if you did an I 0:21:16.800 --> 0:21:20.800 P O or anything, I don't I doubt it. But um, 0:21:20.840 --> 0:21:23.960 it does say that Twitter is extremely valuable and yet 0:21:24.000 --> 0:21:29.040 makes no money. Uh. We we can keep going, keep going, 0:21:29.040 --> 0:21:31.080 Come on, we can do this quickly. All right, we'll 0:21:31.080 --> 0:21:34.080 do this quickly. Uh. Here's here's an easy one. Venture 0:21:34.080 --> 0:21:36.320 capital drives up that would have to be a big 0:21:36.400 --> 0:21:38.960 new right, and I'll just I'll just put a negative 0:21:39.200 --> 0:21:44.080 big checkmark here. Yuh. Actually, uh, it's it's quite the opposite. 0:21:44.080 --> 0:21:46.399 I've seen a lot of venture capital, especially in the 0:21:46.520 --> 0:21:49.359 latter half of the year, probably again sort of recession related, 0:21:49.400 --> 0:21:53.200 but yeah, people starting to fund companies. It was definitely 0:21:53.280 --> 0:21:56.200 counterintuitive to me. I didn't think that venture capitalists would 0:21:56.640 --> 0:21:59.159 fund more stuff during recession. But it turns out that 0:21:59.160 --> 0:22:01.440 a lot of people have had really good ideas and 0:22:01.560 --> 0:22:06.040 venture kevil has just got smarter about spending money. Yeah, 0:22:06.359 --> 0:22:09.840 it's a different it's a totally different, uh environment than 0:22:09.880 --> 0:22:12.240 it was in two thousand nine. But people are still 0:22:12.280 --> 0:22:15.680 investing and people are still making money. Alright, so let's 0:22:15.720 --> 0:22:17.600 see where it was the next one to see the 0:22:17.600 --> 0:22:22.800 next big company to breakout will be, Um, well, you 0:22:22.840 --> 0:22:24.960 know what ACES is doing. Well, I don't think it's 0:22:24.960 --> 0:22:27.920 the next big company yet. No, Actually I think HTC. 0:22:29.359 --> 0:22:30.840 I think you're right, you know, I never even thought 0:22:30.880 --> 0:22:33.480 about that, but yeah, HTC, that was a company I 0:22:33.480 --> 0:22:35.720 had never even heard of before the g One hit. 0:22:36.119 --> 0:22:37.720 I was interested in the g one because of the 0:22:37.760 --> 0:22:41.600