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Speaker 1: Good morning, guys.

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Speaker 2: How are you welcome in to another episode of the

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Speaker 2: Daily Juice podcast with me Matt Perrault. You guys can

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Speaker 2: follow me across all of my socials at Sports Talk Matt.

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Speaker 2: It is a robust two fifteen Pacific time in the morning.

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Speaker 2: We have just gotten back from Boston.

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Speaker 1: It is late.

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Speaker 2: It is five fifteen in the morning for the East

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Speaker 2: Coast folks. We meaning me, will be up here in

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Speaker 2: about I don't know, six hours or so as we

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Speaker 2: get rolling for the live stream, which will be at

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Speaker 2: nine am Pacific time noon Eastern time with myself and

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Speaker 2: Pat fitz Morris. We will go through every game with

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Speaker 2: you guys. We will make plays, prop bets, and more.

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Speaker 2: I don't know if I'm gonna have prop bets today.

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Speaker 2: I'm just gonna be honest. I may have one or two,

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Speaker 2: but it is late. We're gonna get to the picks.

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Speaker 2: I'm not gonna go really heavily in depth here with

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Speaker 2: the plays. We'll talk more about them on the live stream.

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Speaker 2: So if you want more of a breakout and a

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Speaker 2: breakdown as to why I'm betting when I'm betting today,

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Speaker 2: I will tell you. Coming up with a live stream

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Speaker 2: at noon Eastern time. But a winning day yesterday. Alabama

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Speaker 2: comes in for us, the Moody prop comes in. We

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Speaker 2: get that, so there's our two wins. Michigan loses badly

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Speaker 2: in the game. Finally Ohio State gets a w I

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Speaker 2: was going into that. I was gonna bet Ohio State

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Speaker 2: and then I changed at the last moment. Should have

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Speaker 2: taken Ohio State and it would have been a three

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Speaker 2: and oh day and say it's two and one day,

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Speaker 2: winning day for us. Need to have a winning Sunday,

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Speaker 2: to have a winning week. It's in range, but we

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Speaker 2: need to have it. It's very important. There is a

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Speaker 2: hard rock bet of the day. We missed on the

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Speaker 2: last one of these or five and two on the

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Speaker 2: hard rock bet of the day, so we got one

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Speaker 2: of those coming at you guys here for today. But

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Speaker 2: let's start here, okay, with the Jets, and you might go,

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Speaker 2: what hold on? Okay, let's start with the Jets, and

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Speaker 2: let's start with the fact that the Jets are playing

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Speaker 2: a Falcons team being quarterbacked by Kirk Cousins. Do you

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Speaker 2: guys remember the fading of Kirk Cousins at a favorite.

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Speaker 2: The Falcons are favored by three over Tyron Taylor and

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Speaker 2: the Jets falcons on the road outside as favorites.

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Speaker 1: This is no bueno. Okay, this is not good in.

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Speaker 2: Terms of how Kirk Cousins has played as a favorite

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Speaker 2: on the road. In particular, after a Kirk Cousins team

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Speaker 2: wins the next game, they're thirty three forty five to

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Speaker 2: one against the number. They snapped a five game losing

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Speaker 2: streak to the Saints last week. Teams. According to the

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Speaker 2: Action Network, they had this stat over the last twenty years,

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Speaker 2: Teams that snap a five game losing streak in their

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Speaker 2: tenth game or later are winning just thirty eight percent

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Speaker 2: of the games outright the next game. Over the last

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Speaker 2: five years, they're six and fifteen straight up at eight

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Speaker 2: eleven and two against the number. Tyrod Taylor, Okay, Tyrod

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Speaker 2: Taylor is a great quarterback to back. Since the start

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Speaker 2: of twenty twenty two, Tyrod Taylor is six to zho

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Speaker 2: to one against the spread in seven starts. Okay, when

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Speaker 2: his team is under five hundred, like the Jets are,

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Speaker 2: he's sixteen to five and one ats, including eleven to

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Speaker 2: two to one against the spread. As an underdog. The

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Speaker 2: Jets are catching three points here. I'm not backing an

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Speaker 2: outdoor team, a dome team going outdoors in late November.

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Speaker 1: Absolutely not give me the Jets.

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Speaker 2: We're taking the Jets at plus three here for one

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Speaker 2: point one units. There's a theme to this card. By

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Speaker 2: the way, just FYI, let's go to Sunday night. Let's

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Speaker 2: go to the game in prime time between the bo

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Speaker 2: Nicks led Broncos and Jayden Daniels in the Washington command

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Speaker 2: Here's the thing. When it's Daniels, you bet on the Commanders.

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Speaker 2: When it's not, you fade them. B Nicks on the

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Speaker 2: road is a fade. He's two and three against the

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Speaker 2: spread on the road. Sorry, at home, he's great, six

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Speaker 2: and oh straight up three and three against the number.

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Speaker 1: But uh huh? Do not like bon Nicks on the road.

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Speaker 2: The Broncos have trailed in all their games this year

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Speaker 2: at some point, and yet they're nine to two.

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Speaker 1: They're not blowing people out. They're playing with.

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Speaker 2: Fire in a lot of ways, and this might be

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Speaker 2: not great. Broncos and Commanders are both coming off bys.

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Speaker 2: I think you probably see a low.

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Speaker 1: Scoring game, and in low scoring games, I want points.

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Speaker 2: Give me the dog. I'm taking the six and a half.

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Speaker 2: Gimme Washington plus six and a half. Here, Washington plus

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Speaker 2: six and a half. Hopefully you guys get a seven.

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Speaker 2: We're taking Washington plus the points here at home against

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Speaker 2: bo Nicks on Sunday night football against the Broncos.

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Speaker 1: Let's stay in that late window.

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Speaker 2: But in the afternoon four to twenty five Eastern time,

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Speaker 2: the Raiders against Justin Herbert. All the numbers say bet

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Speaker 2: the Chargers. I'm betting the Raiders. Why well, ESBN uncovered

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Speaker 2: that Chip Kelly was calling plays that didn't exist, that

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Speaker 2: didn't exist, tom Brady fired him personally. Tom Brady is

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Speaker 2: looking to burn this thing to the ground. He said,

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Speaker 2: if we're not we have to, we'll burn it all

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Speaker 2: the way to the ground and we'll start completely over.

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Speaker 1: They might need they might need to do that.

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Speaker 2: However, it is Jim Harbaugh against Pete Carroll in a

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Speaker 2: game in which Pete Carroll might be coaching for his job.

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Speaker 2: Tom Brady might be sending a little message here to

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Speaker 2: seventy three year old Pete and saying, Hey, if you

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Speaker 2: want to be here, these guys got to perform, you

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Speaker 2: gotta play well. Justin Herbert off of a bye. These

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Speaker 2: are all bad. Okay, He's won four games in a

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Speaker 2: row the next week after a bye.

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Speaker 1: But ten points is ten points is big.

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Speaker 2: However, Justin Herbert against the AFC West has dominated twenty

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Speaker 2: nine to one against the spread eight to zho to

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Speaker 2: one over his last nine starts against the AFC West.

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Speaker 1: That's not good. Okay.

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Speaker 2: Gino Smith has been a disaster, absolute disaster. But I

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Speaker 2: think with the Raiders, Okay, after firing Chip Kelly in

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Speaker 2: a divisional game catching ten points, the Raiders went to

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Speaker 2: Denver and they were competent when they were big dogs.

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Speaker 2: I think the same thing's gonna happen here. Raiders on

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Speaker 2: the road as big dogs. I think they are going

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Speaker 2: to be a competent team here.

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Speaker 1: Okay.

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Speaker 2: I think they have a shot to cover, not to win,

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Speaker 2: to cover, lose the game by seven, lose the game

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Speaker 2: by eight. Maybe it's a backdoor play, but I think

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Speaker 2: we have a chance here. With Pete Carroll and Jim

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Speaker 2: Harbaugh and their rivalry, Pete Carroll is a dog against

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Speaker 2: Jim Harbaugh has been disastrous and Jim Harball against the

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Speaker 2: number this year has been tremendous. Okay, Raiders are gonna

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Speaker 2: have a big problem with the pass rush here. For

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Speaker 2: the Chargers and the Chargers defense. There's all sorts of

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Speaker 2: negative things. This is as much of a gut play

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Speaker 2: as anything here. But I think in the week a

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Speaker 2: dead cat bounce after firing Chip Kelly, I think the

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Speaker 2: whole team's gonna play with their hair on fire. And frankly,

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Speaker 2: it's a home game. Okay, it's a home game. Chargers

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Speaker 2: don't have fans the Raiders. When they play in LA

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Speaker 2: against the Chargers, that stadium will be blacked out. Okay,

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Speaker 2: that's gonna be almost like a home game for the Raiders.

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Speaker 2: I'm taking the points. Give me the Raiders plus ten

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Speaker 2: for one point one units. Now, teaser, let's talk about

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Speaker 2: the Houston Texans against the Colts. This number has crashed, Okay,

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Speaker 2: it just comes straight down. And the reason is the

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Speaker 2: Texans have won three straight games against the Colts. It's

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Speaker 2: the Texans first three game win streak against Indy since

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Speaker 2: going back to twenty fifteen to twenty sixteen. They have

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Speaker 2: never beaten them four straight times. However, Texans started their

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Speaker 2: franchise history oh to thirteen on the road at Indy

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Speaker 2: and win save their life. But Daniel Jones played in

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Speaker 2: New York for six seasons. In that time, he was

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Speaker 2: five and nine as a favorite. With the Colts, He's

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Speaker 2: four and three as a favorite. Texans are on extended

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Speaker 2: rest here and they have a shot at winning this game.

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Speaker 2: It's a monster game. Their defense has to step up.

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Speaker 2: It looks like CJ. Stroud is going to play in

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Speaker 2: this game. That's why the numbers come straight down here,

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Speaker 2: and I'm gonna tease it up. I'm gonna go one

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Speaker 2: leg and give the Texans nine points here to go

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Speaker 2: from three and a half to go up to nine,

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Speaker 2: or from three up to nine here, cross that seven,

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Speaker 2: get over close to ten points. You want to do

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Speaker 2: a seven point taser, you can do that as well.

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Speaker 1: Get to ten.

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Speaker 2: I don't mind that at all. You know, Texans have

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Speaker 2: the Chiefs on dex sins twenty twenty. Teams with Casey

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Speaker 2: on the horizon are sixty five forty and one ats

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Speaker 2: maybe even to cover the three. But to me, I mean, look,

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Speaker 2: I think this is going to be a lot of

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Speaker 2: fun to see how these two teams play, because I

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Speaker 2: don't think anybody really wants to play the Colts or

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Speaker 2: the Texans in the playoffs, to be quite honest.

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Speaker 1: But CJ.

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Speaker 2: Stroud being back as big. First leg of the teaser

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Speaker 2: is Houston plus nine and the other side we're going

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Speaker 2: to the Browns and the Browns game is about weather. Okay,

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Speaker 2: this is a wind game. We're talking twenty mile prior

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Speaker 2: sustained wins up to thirty thirty five mile prior win. Gus,

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Speaker 2: this is gonna be a windy game. Brock Purdy in

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Speaker 2: the rain and in the wind in Cleveland, has not

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Speaker 2: played well. Scored seventeen points his last time in Cleveland.

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Speaker 2: They lost on the road. Sam Fran has lost four

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Speaker 2: straight trips to Cleveland. Their last win in Cleveland was

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Speaker 2: in nineteen eighty four. Nineteen eighty four. How about this number?

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Speaker 2: Since twenty twenty, the Browns are thirteen and five straight

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Speaker 2: up at home against teams above five hundred.

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Speaker 1: That is unbelievable. The Browns when they're away from home

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Speaker 1: again teams.

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Speaker 2: From five hundred or who are above five hundred or

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Speaker 2: five and eighteen straight up at home.

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Speaker 1: Different story.

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Speaker 2: It's about Miles Garrett, It's about that defense, and it's

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Speaker 2: about keeping Shador Sanders away from the interceptions. Brock Purty

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Speaker 2: threw three picks last week. Brock Purdy didn't look good

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Speaker 2: brock Purty's gonna have a problem with this. Cleveland defense

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Speaker 2: didn't like San frank last week. The way they played,

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Speaker 2: they were fortunate to get w I got Miles Garrett,

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Speaker 2: I got this defense, I got wins, I got Weather.

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Speaker 2: Here n not good, Okay, the Browns are This is

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Speaker 2: a one bad stat The Browns are coming up a

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Speaker 2: straight off winning over the Raiders.

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Speaker 1: Double digit win.

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Speaker 2: Since the start of last year, Cleveland is zero to

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Speaker 2: five ats after a win.

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Speaker 1: Okay, so maybe they don't cover.

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Speaker 2: But let's tease it, and let's give them eleven and

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Speaker 2: a half Houston plus nine Browns plus eleven and a

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Speaker 2: half Miles one twenty five teaser.

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Speaker 1: There's your teaser of the week.

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Speaker 2: So the theme is points, points, points, points and points.

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Speaker 1: Why why am I all about points?

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Speaker 2: Well, the reason why I'm all about points is because

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Speaker 2: what has happened here in the NFL.

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Speaker 1: We've seen a big turn here. Okay.

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Speaker 2: In the first eight weeks of the season, Favorites went

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Speaker 2: thirty nine in twenty in the early one PM window,

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Speaker 2: going over five hundred in all eight weeks, including forty

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Speaker 2: two and seventeen in the first half in the early window.

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Speaker 2: Since Week nine, favorites are seven twenty one in one

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Speaker 2: in the early window in six and twenty three against

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Speaker 2: the first half spread.

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Speaker 1: Okay, they're just not covering.

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Speaker 2: Teams scoring twenty four points or more are one to

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Speaker 2: eighteen and fifty three against the Sea against the spread.

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Speaker 2: That would be the second lowest mark for a full

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Speaker 2: year since nineteen ninety. The lowest was the COVID year

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Speaker 2: back in twenty twenty at sixty seven percent. Okay, so

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Speaker 2: this is a very odd year. Not a lot of

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Speaker 2: offense going on here. That's better for the dogs closer

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Speaker 2: games big spreads. Teams are having a hard time covering

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Speaker 2: those big spreads. So first we're going Jets plus three,

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Speaker 2: Raiders plus ten, Washington plus six and a half, and

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Speaker 2: the teaser of Houston and the Browns Houston plus nine

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Speaker 2: and the Browns at plus one fifteen. Now, before I

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Speaker 2: give you the hard rock play of the day, let

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Speaker 2: me remind you about what you guys can get with

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Speaker 2: hard rock bet.

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Speaker 1: It is a big time of the year.

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Speaker 2: It's a big game day, every day, Pro football, college football, NBA,

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Speaker 2: college hoops, and more all happening right now. They still

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Speaker 2: have the offer bet five bucks. You win, you get

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Speaker 2: the winnings plus one fifty in extra bonus bets as well.

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Speaker 2: Hard Rock Sports Book app is the only legal sports

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Speaker 2: book in Florida, but it's also live in Arizona, Ohio,

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Speaker 2: New Jersey, Indiana, Tennessee, Virginia, Illinois, and Colorado. Hard Rock

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Speaker 2: Bet offers promos every single day. Download the hard Rock

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Speaker 2: Bet app and make your first deposit. Today I mentioned

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Speaker 2: whether in Cleveland, what are we betting with the Oh,

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Speaker 2: we're betting the under, of course, hard Rock Bet of

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Speaker 2: the day Browns and the San fran forty nine ers

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Speaker 2: under thirty six at minus one ten. I don't think

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Speaker 2: Shador Sanders scores a ton. We bet the under last

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Speaker 2: week it hit for the Browns and the Raiders. Now

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Speaker 2: the Browns are at home, and now the Browns are

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Speaker 2: in weather, wind, rain, nastiness in Cleveland, Midwest have been

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Speaker 2: dealing with all wintery mix in the wind whipping off

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Speaker 2: the lakes under thirty six.

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Speaker 1: I don't care about Christian McCaffrey.

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Speaker 2: I don't think he has a big game here against

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Speaker 2: this great Browns defense, and I think Miles Garrett is

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Speaker 2: going to really make life difficult on this offense for

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Speaker 2: the forty nine Ers on the flip side, Shador Sanders

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Speaker 2: against Kyle Shanahan against a very good defensive coordinator. I'm

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Speaker 2: not exactly dumping up and down about Shud or Sanders

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Speaker 2: in this game here today, but I do think they

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Speaker 2: play close to the vest low scoring game Browns plus

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Speaker 2: eleven and a half on the teaser and the under

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Speaker 2: thirty six for our hard rock bet of the Day,

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Speaker 2: I will talk to you guys come up at noon

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Speaker 2: Eastern time nine am Pacific time with Pat fitz Morris

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Speaker 2: for our live stream on the Betting Pros YouTube channel.

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Speaker 1: My name is Matt Perraultz will talk to you later today,

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Speaker 1: like in six hours from now.

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Speaker 2: Wherever you guys get your podcast whenever you guys get

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Speaker 2: your podcasts.

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Speaker 1: It is the Daily Juice.