1 00:00:03,080 --> 00:00:07,680 Speaker 1: Broadcasting live to New York, Bloomberg to Washington, d C, 2 00:00:07,920 --> 00:00:13,160 Speaker 1: bloom to Boston, Bloomberg twelve hundreds to San Francisco, Bloomberg 3 00:00:14,000 --> 00:00:18,439 Speaker 1: to the Country, Channel one, and around the globe. The 4 00:00:18,480 --> 00:00:23,080 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio Plus happened. Bloomberg dot Com. This is Bloomberg Surveillance. 5 00:00:23,960 --> 00:00:26,640 Speaker 1: Good morning. It is seven thirty on Wall Street Time. 6 00:00:26,680 --> 00:00:30,800 Speaker 1: Michael McKee along with Tom Keene. Lot going on in 7 00:00:31,000 --> 00:00:34,520 Speaker 1: the markets today, A little bit of company news. Most 8 00:00:34,560 --> 00:00:37,160 Speaker 1: of it is a fear trade out there and what's 9 00:00:37,159 --> 00:00:41,080 Speaker 1: going on with Brexit and global economies. But Japanese Line 10 00:00:41,320 --> 00:00:44,840 Speaker 1: Corporation they're going to go public in July and Mayking 11 00:00:44,840 --> 00:00:47,080 Speaker 1: official what we had already reported. They want to raise 12 00:00:47,440 --> 00:00:50,120 Speaker 1: as much as a billion dollars. They're gonna sell shares 13 00:00:50,120 --> 00:00:55,360 Speaker 1: in the US and in Japan. UniCredit UH their board 14 00:00:55,360 --> 00:00:58,400 Speaker 1: of directors met late last night discussed the type of 15 00:00:58,480 --> 00:01:02,360 Speaker 1: manager they want to succeed the chief executive officer, Frederico. 16 00:01:02,840 --> 00:01:06,720 Speaker 1: He's only is leaving. They say the process may take weeks. 17 00:01:07,040 --> 00:01:10,880 Speaker 1: Jack ma over in China his Aunti Financial Holding Group, 18 00:01:10,920 --> 00:01:16,240 Speaker 1: his financial affiliate by a stake in Shanghai Suntime Information Technology. 19 00:01:16,240 --> 00:01:20,360 Speaker 1: They provide data tracking Chinese hedge funds. Be interesting to 20 00:01:20,400 --> 00:01:25,000 Speaker 1: see what he does with that. Now, let's check in 21 00:01:25,040 --> 00:01:28,360 Speaker 1: with Bob Boon and get the latest world and national headlines. Bob, 22 00:01:28,520 --> 00:01:30,800 Speaker 1: good morning. The White House is giving the U. S 23 00:01:30,840 --> 00:01:33,280 Speaker 1: Military to go ahead to conduct air strikes on the 24 00:01:33,319 --> 00:01:37,120 Speaker 1: Afghan Taliban if need be. Senior US and defense officials 25 00:01:37,160 --> 00:01:40,240 Speaker 1: say the decision was made in recent days as Afghans 26 00:01:40,240 --> 00:01:44,240 Speaker 1: continue to struggle with a resurgent Taliban. There are signs 27 00:01:44,280 --> 00:01:48,640 Speaker 1: everywhere of Democratic Party unification behind presumptive presidential nominee Hillary Clinton, 28 00:01:48,880 --> 00:01:51,920 Speaker 1: from the endorsement by President Barack Obama to a subdued 29 00:01:52,000 --> 00:01:54,760 Speaker 1: Bernie Sanders talking about meeting with his former rival to 30 00:01:54,840 --> 00:01:58,240 Speaker 1: discuss ways to be Republican Donald Trump. Clinton also got 31 00:01:58,240 --> 00:02:02,200 Speaker 1: the endorsement last night of outspoken Senator Elizabeth Warren, the 32 00:02:02,280 --> 00:02:05,720 Speaker 1: loan holdout among Democratic women in the Senate. A huge 33 00:02:05,720 --> 00:02:08,480 Speaker 1: procession will let's scort the body of Muhammad Ali around 34 00:02:08,520 --> 00:02:11,560 Speaker 1: the landmarks of his of his life in his hometown 35 00:02:11,560 --> 00:02:15,000 Speaker 1: of Louisville, Kentucky. Today. It will include his boyhood home, 36 00:02:15,080 --> 00:02:17,760 Speaker 1: the boulevard that bears his name, and the museum that 37 00:02:17,840 --> 00:02:20,720 Speaker 1: stands as a lasting tribute to his boxing triumphs and 38 00:02:20,800 --> 00:02:24,200 Speaker 1: his humanitarian causes. Thousands are expected to lie in the 39 00:02:24,200 --> 00:02:28,040 Speaker 1: parade route and crown the city's biggest arena for a memorial. 40 00:02:28,760 --> 00:02:33,720 Speaker 1: And that is the latest in world and national news. Michael, Hey, 41 00:02:33,800 --> 00:02:37,160 Speaker 1: you bab time now for the Landrover Percipity Bloomberg NBC 42 00:02:37,280 --> 00:02:41,280 Speaker 1: Sports Update with Rob Bushka. Hey, good morning, Mike. Look 43 00:02:41,280 --> 00:02:43,520 Speaker 1: who was back at five at your New York Yankees 44 00:02:43,520 --> 00:02:45,720 Speaker 1: After an oppressive four game sweep at the Angels at 45 00:02:45,720 --> 00:02:48,480 Speaker 1: the Stadium, Carlos Beltrock did not go yard unlike the 46 00:02:48,520 --> 00:02:50,560 Speaker 1: first three games. He did serve up his thoughts on 47 00:02:50,840 --> 00:02:52,720 Speaker 1: what's been a great week. I think we played good 48 00:02:52,720 --> 00:02:55,640 Speaker 1: baseball this serious in Uh happy to be able to 49 00:02:55,639 --> 00:02:58,160 Speaker 1: start the homestand in an a positive note. And uh, 50 00:02:58,240 --> 00:03:00,160 Speaker 1: you know, we us need to continue to in a 51 00:03:00,160 --> 00:03:02,000 Speaker 1: way to continue to play the same we we've been doing. 52 00:03:02,080 --> 00:03:04,600 Speaker 1: Uh we're piecing good, we're playing good defense, we're hitting well, 53 00:03:04,680 --> 00:03:07,040 Speaker 1: so we need to continue to stay with the same plan. 54 00:03:07,600 --> 00:03:10,240 Speaker 1: Beltron went one for three and he drove in a 55 00:03:10,280 --> 00:03:13,200 Speaker 1: pair in the sixth three win homestand continues tonight the 56 00:03:13,200 --> 00:03:15,960 Speaker 1: Tigers pay a visit. Former met Mike Pelfrey is on 57 00:03:16,000 --> 00:03:18,960 Speaker 1: the bump opposite of C. C. Sabathia. Yankees will try 58 00:03:19,000 --> 00:03:20,919 Speaker 1: and pick up some ground on Baltimore. They're gonna be 59 00:03:20,960 --> 00:03:23,840 Speaker 1: without Manny Machadod, their star, who was suspended four games 60 00:03:24,080 --> 00:03:27,440 Speaker 1: for his role in a brawl versus Kansas City this week. Mets, 61 00:03:27,480 --> 00:03:30,320 Speaker 1: they get started off on the right foot in Milwaukee. 62 00:03:30,360 --> 00:03:32,799 Speaker 1: This sounds familiar. We're gonna drive in the air to 63 00:03:32,919 --> 00:03:36,560 Speaker 1: deep right. Flor's back onto the track. God a home run. 64 00:03:37,160 --> 00:03:40,760 Speaker 1: For the fortieth time in his major league career, Curtis 65 00:03:40,760 --> 00:03:43,320 Speaker 1: Grantison has let off a game with a home run. 66 00:03:43,680 --> 00:03:45,920 Speaker 1: It is the sixteenth time he's done that as a 67 00:03:46,000 --> 00:03:49,120 Speaker 1: New York Met. Mets Radio on the call, bar Tolo 68 00:03:49,160 --> 00:03:52,240 Speaker 1: Cologne earning his fifth win. Mets beat the Brewers five 69 00:03:52,320 --> 00:03:53,920 Speaker 1: to two. They picked up a game on the Nationals 70 00:03:53,960 --> 00:03:56,080 Speaker 1: as well too. They're now just two and a half 71 00:03:56,120 --> 00:03:59,040 Speaker 1: games back and the Sharks, they forced game six back 72 00:03:59,040 --> 00:04:00,440 Speaker 1: in San Jose with a four were to win in 73 00:04:00,480 --> 00:04:04,040 Speaker 1: Pittsburgh in the Stanley Cup. That's your NBC Bloomberg Sports Update, Mike, 74 00:04:04,680 --> 00:04:07,000 Speaker 1: and you can bet Rob we're going to be talking 75 00:04:07,000 --> 00:04:11,720 Speaker 1: about that Shark's game with Penguins fan Tom Keen sometime 76 00:04:11,880 --> 00:04:15,400 Speaker 1: during the morning. Here we'll catch him unawares at some point. 77 00:04:19,040 --> 00:04:23,200 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg surveillance. Michael McKee along with Tom Keene, 78 00:04:23,440 --> 00:04:27,960 Speaker 1: he of the Penguins Shiva. This morning, SMP futures are 79 00:04:28,040 --> 00:04:30,560 Speaker 1: down by twelve points right now, six tenths of eight 80 00:04:30,560 --> 00:04:33,719 Speaker 1: percent down. Futures are half a percent off. That's ninety points. 81 00:04:33,960 --> 00:04:36,800 Speaker 1: Everybody is watching what's happening in the bond market and 82 00:04:37,000 --> 00:04:40,640 Speaker 1: the stock markets selling office bonds rise, The two year 83 00:04:40,640 --> 00:04:42,840 Speaker 1: note yield at seventy six basis points, the ten year 84 00:04:42,880 --> 00:04:45,400 Speaker 1: falls to one point six six. We don't well, we'll 85 00:04:45,440 --> 00:04:46,920 Speaker 1: talk in a few moments. Others say, we don't want 86 00:04:46,920 --> 00:04:49,080 Speaker 1: to talk about well, we will talk about what's going 87 00:04:49,080 --> 00:04:51,760 Speaker 1: on in European yields in just a moment. But first, 88 00:04:52,360 --> 00:04:54,520 Speaker 1: The Bloomberg n j I T STEM Report brought to 89 00:04:54,520 --> 00:04:57,240 Speaker 1: you by the New Jersey Institute of Technology, investing more 90 00:04:57,240 --> 00:04:59,240 Speaker 1: than a hundred and ten million dollars a year into 91 00:04:59,240 --> 00:05:02,640 Speaker 1: applied research to solve problems and improve life. Learn more 92 00:05:02,680 --> 00:05:05,359 Speaker 1: at Stories of Innovation dot m G I T dot 93 00:05:05,360 --> 00:05:08,640 Speaker 1: E d U. Here's good morning again, and this is 94 00:05:08,640 --> 00:05:12,640 Speaker 1: what's making news in science, technology, engineering, and math. Scientists 95 00:05:12,640 --> 00:05:14,800 Speaker 1: have found a way, a quick way, though not a 96 00:05:14,880 --> 00:05:18,400 Speaker 1: cheap one, to turn heat trapping carbon dioxide gas into 97 00:05:18,440 --> 00:05:21,400 Speaker 1: harmless rock. Experts say the results of a two year, 98 00:05:21,440 --> 00:05:24,840 Speaker 1: ten million dollar experiment called carbon Fix, conducted about one 99 00:05:24,880 --> 00:05:27,039 Speaker 1: third of a mile deep in the rocks of Iceland, 100 00:05:27,360 --> 00:05:29,960 Speaker 1: offer new hope for an effective weapon to help fight 101 00:05:30,000 --> 00:05:33,280 Speaker 1: man make global warming. When an international team of scientists 102 00:05:33,279 --> 00:05:37,400 Speaker 1: pumped a carbon dioxide and water mix into underground basalt rocks, 103 00:05:37,920 --> 00:05:41,480 Speaker 1: basic chemistry took over the acidic mixture, dissolved the rocks 104 00:05:41,520 --> 00:05:46,359 Speaker 1: calcium magnesium, and formed limestone, a permanent natural jail for 105 00:05:46,480 --> 00:05:49,760 Speaker 1: the heat trapping gas. The success of Elon Musk's rock 106 00:05:49,800 --> 00:05:53,560 Speaker 1: adventure SpaceX has given Europe's space industry a kick in 107 00:05:53,600 --> 00:05:57,160 Speaker 1: the paths. Since April, there have been three flawless landings 108 00:05:57,200 --> 00:06:00,840 Speaker 1: on the first stage of the Space Explorer Asian Technologies 109 00:06:00,880 --> 00:06:04,520 Speaker 1: Falcon nine rocket on a drone barge in the Atlantic Ocean, 110 00:06:04,760 --> 00:06:07,039 Speaker 1: and Mousque announced this week that he plans to start 111 00:06:07,040 --> 00:06:10,640 Speaker 1: reusing rockets as soon as September. The problem for Europe 112 00:06:10,720 --> 00:06:14,080 Speaker 1: is that while SpaceX is already testing it's reusable rockets 113 00:06:14,120 --> 00:06:18,000 Speaker 1: and slashing prices, a reusable area on six is just 114 00:06:18,120 --> 00:06:20,560 Speaker 1: to glimmer in the eyes of scientists, and even the 115 00:06:20,640 --> 00:06:24,279 Speaker 1: non usable, non reusable that is Area in six may 116 00:06:24,320 --> 00:06:27,920 Speaker 1: not be ready until more than just European pride is 117 00:06:27,960 --> 00:06:31,800 Speaker 1: at stake. The space industry there represents thirty eight thousand jobs, 118 00:06:32,240 --> 00:06:34,720 Speaker 1: and that is this morning's Bloomberg n j I T 119 00:06:34,839 --> 00:06:38,280 Speaker 1: Stem report. Michael, thank you, Bob Well. It is kind 120 00:06:38,320 --> 00:06:40,760 Speaker 1: of a crazy world out there. This morning we mentioned 121 00:06:40,760 --> 00:06:42,720 Speaker 1: that the U S tenure note yield is at one 122 00:06:42,760 --> 00:06:47,640 Speaker 1: point six six this morning. Over in Europe, the German 123 00:06:47,720 --> 00:06:53,080 Speaker 1: ten year is at three basis points. That's Germany ten years. 124 00:06:53,560 --> 00:06:55,680 Speaker 1: Three basis points is the yield you're gonna get. And 125 00:06:55,680 --> 00:06:58,040 Speaker 1: of course Commerce Bank said yesterday they're probably gonna go 126 00:06:58,400 --> 00:07:01,680 Speaker 1: to zero. Over in Japan, a ten year no yield 127 00:07:01,760 --> 00:07:05,000 Speaker 1: is now at negative seventeen basis points. It's a crazy, 128 00:07:05,120 --> 00:07:08,760 Speaker 1: crazy world, and it appears that everybody is getting into 129 00:07:09,000 --> 00:07:12,600 Speaker 1: one trade. How worried should we be? Jane Folly is 130 00:07:12,640 --> 00:07:16,000 Speaker 1: a senior for an exchange strategist at Ravel Bank in London. 131 00:07:16,120 --> 00:07:20,080 Speaker 1: She joins US now and Jane. Each country has reasons, 132 00:07:20,600 --> 00:07:24,520 Speaker 1: individual idiosancratic reasons why you might want to be buying 133 00:07:24,560 --> 00:07:27,560 Speaker 1: bonds and find some safety. The US has the overriding 134 00:07:28,040 --> 00:07:30,800 Speaker 1: um benefit or problem of being the haven for everyone. 135 00:07:31,280 --> 00:07:34,440 Speaker 1: But how worried should we be about what's going on? 136 00:07:34,640 --> 00:07:38,600 Speaker 1: Is this something that's going to disappear on June when 137 00:07:38,600 --> 00:07:42,640 Speaker 1: the Brexit vote is over, or on July sixth one, 138 00:07:43,600 --> 00:07:46,600 Speaker 1: or when we see the next jobs report um or 139 00:07:46,680 --> 00:07:49,480 Speaker 1: is this a sign of a new leg down in 140 00:07:49,720 --> 00:07:53,080 Speaker 1: global economic thinking? Well, I do think that we do 141 00:07:53,200 --> 00:07:56,360 Speaker 1: have these residual concerns about the place of world gers 142 00:07:56,400 --> 00:07:58,000 Speaker 1: there there, and they haven't gone away, and they keep 143 00:07:58,040 --> 00:08:00,400 Speaker 1: the failing to go away. In fact, cost we had 144 00:08:00,880 --> 00:08:04,480 Speaker 1: the World Bank rising down its forecast again. But I 145 00:08:04,520 --> 00:08:06,160 Speaker 1: do think doing the twenty fourth is going to be 146 00:08:06,200 --> 00:08:09,040 Speaker 1: a really important day. That, of course, is the day 147 00:08:09,080 --> 00:08:13,720 Speaker 1: after the UK's referendum on EU membership. And I say 148 00:08:13,720 --> 00:08:18,000 Speaker 1: that because irrespective of the economic impact on the UK economy, 149 00:08:18,240 --> 00:08:21,320 Speaker 1: if we do have a Brexit, there is Europe. And 150 00:08:21,480 --> 00:08:24,040 Speaker 1: what we have in Europe right now is a lot 151 00:08:24,080 --> 00:08:27,360 Speaker 1: of cracks already. In fact, some surveys are showing that 152 00:08:27,400 --> 00:08:30,960 Speaker 1: the French are more anti EU now than the British, 153 00:08:31,480 --> 00:08:34,400 Speaker 1: so there is a lot of anti EU sentiment. There 154 00:08:34,480 --> 00:08:37,280 Speaker 1: is the possibility that a brexit, or even just a 155 00:08:37,320 --> 00:08:40,080 Speaker 1: close phote in favor of remaining from the UK, could 156 00:08:40,120 --> 00:08:43,480 Speaker 1: really highlight some of these cracks. And indeed there could 157 00:08:43,520 --> 00:08:47,520 Speaker 1: be other referendum that cannot be ruled out. So there 158 00:08:47,559 --> 00:08:51,640 Speaker 1: are cracks in the EU. A brexit could certainly highlight that. 159 00:08:52,360 --> 00:08:55,040 Speaker 1: And therefore the real legacy perhaps of our brexit is 160 00:08:55,120 --> 00:08:58,440 Speaker 1: not it's impact on the UK, but it's impact on Europe. 161 00:08:58,440 --> 00:09:01,000 Speaker 1: And if we did see more crack fare well, we 162 00:09:01,040 --> 00:09:04,000 Speaker 1: would have flower growth in Europe, even slower growth in Europe, perhaps, 163 00:09:04,000 --> 00:09:06,400 Speaker 1: I should say, And that is a big worry for 164 00:09:06,440 --> 00:09:09,360 Speaker 1: the world economy. Well, do we have a conviction trade 165 00:09:09,440 --> 00:09:11,600 Speaker 1: at this point and that sort of worry or is 166 00:09:11,600 --> 00:09:14,240 Speaker 1: it just let's stash our cash in bonds until we 167 00:09:14,240 --> 00:09:16,240 Speaker 1: figure out what the heck is going on. I think 168 00:09:16,240 --> 00:09:19,160 Speaker 1: that's exactly what's happening. I mean you mentioned that the bungeield. 169 00:09:19,200 --> 00:09:21,839 Speaker 1: I mean that is for Europe, the safe haven and 170 00:09:21,880 --> 00:09:24,079 Speaker 1: the un course, as you mentioned treasuries. If we look 171 00:09:24,120 --> 00:09:26,480 Speaker 1: at the currency market, we save same sort of in 172 00:09:26,600 --> 00:09:29,319 Speaker 1: fact effect, we see the this is frank and the 173 00:09:29,480 --> 00:09:31,599 Speaker 1: yen over the last twenty four hours a year, and 174 00:09:31,679 --> 00:09:34,520 Speaker 1: the best performer at the Swiss Frank the next best performer. 175 00:09:34,559 --> 00:09:37,839 Speaker 1: Those two, of course the the usual candidates in terms 176 00:09:37,840 --> 00:09:41,360 Speaker 1: of safe haven. So we are seeing the safe haven 177 00:09:41,360 --> 00:09:44,719 Speaker 1: trade coming out, and I think during the twenty four 178 00:09:44,800 --> 00:09:47,440 Speaker 1: we did twenty three is the first really big hurdle 179 00:09:47,480 --> 00:09:50,200 Speaker 1: in terms of risk appetite. After that, of course, we 180 00:09:50,240 --> 00:09:52,120 Speaker 1: do have other concerns. We've got the U S election 181 00:09:52,240 --> 00:09:54,280 Speaker 1: later on in the year. We have of course in Europe, 182 00:09:54,280 --> 00:09:56,560 Speaker 1: We've got we've got Spanish elections at the end of June. 183 00:09:56,760 --> 00:10:00,080 Speaker 1: We've got maybe some political concerns potentially bubbling up in 184 00:10:00,080 --> 00:10:03,160 Speaker 1: in Italy too, and so there are a number of 185 00:10:03,200 --> 00:10:06,800 Speaker 1: concerns further down the road. But certainly that's a big one. 186 00:10:07,520 --> 00:10:10,240 Speaker 1: So we all just go on vacation for a couple 187 00:10:10,240 --> 00:10:14,319 Speaker 1: of weeks. Well indeed, I mean even if you look 188 00:10:14,360 --> 00:10:17,400 Speaker 1: at Sterling, I mean that there we've seen some lumpy 189 00:10:17,440 --> 00:10:20,720 Speaker 1: movements recently, but does appear that liquidity is running dry. 190 00:10:20,800 --> 00:10:23,880 Speaker 1: So I think many people are you know, taking up 191 00:10:24,320 --> 00:10:27,040 Speaker 1: heading themselves, taking up safe having positions and then just 192 00:10:27,040 --> 00:10:28,880 Speaker 1: going to batten down the hedges perhaps and and wait 193 00:10:28,920 --> 00:10:30,920 Speaker 1: to see what happens. Well, there you have it. There 194 00:10:31,000 --> 00:10:33,480 Speaker 1: is the ultimate hedge trade. For the next two or 195 00:10:33,600 --> 00:10:36,080 Speaker 1: three weeks a ticket to ABISA. Let's sit on the 196 00:10:36,080 --> 00:10:38,960 Speaker 1: beach and you turn off all of your monitors and 197 00:10:39,040 --> 00:10:42,240 Speaker 1: you stop worrying about it until you can actually do 198 00:10:42,520 --> 00:10:48,920 Speaker 1: anything about it. Three basis points, ten years Germany, It's uh, 199 00:10:48,960 --> 00:10:51,000 Speaker 1: It's a strange, strange world. We'll come back with Jane 200 00:10:51,040 --> 00:10:53,920 Speaker 1: Foley and talk about whether Thomas Jordan's and the Swiss 201 00:10:54,000 --> 00:11:01,720 Speaker 1: National Bank have any hope at all going forward. Later 202 00:11:01,840 --> 00:11:04,439 Speaker 1: in the program, we will get an update on politics. 203 00:11:04,559 --> 00:11:07,040 Speaker 1: Red Their will join us from Fox News. Did you 204 00:11:07,120 --> 00:11:11,079 Speaker 1: hear what Mitch McConnell said about Donald Trump last night? 205 00:11:11,120 --> 00:11:19,160 Speaker 1: You don't want to miss that. Global Business news twenty 206 00:11:19,160 --> 00:11:22,160 Speaker 1: four hours a day at Bloomberg dot com, the Radio 207 00:11:22,200 --> 00:11:25,000 Speaker 1: plus mobile app, and on your radio. This is a 208 00:11:25,080 --> 00:11:28,840 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business Flash and I'm caring moscown This updates brought 209 00:11:28,880 --> 00:11:32,160 Speaker 1: to you by c g M, a Chartered Global Management Accountant. 210 00:11:32,160 --> 00:11:35,160 Speaker 1: The c g M a designation and program deliver critical 211 00:11:35,280 --> 00:11:38,439 Speaker 1: skills your finance team needs to succeed. Learn more at 212 00:11:38,440 --> 00:11:41,920 Speaker 1: c g M. A dot org slash Radio US dot 213 00:11:41,960 --> 00:11:46,360 Speaker 1: index futures are lower amid declines across markets and asset classes. 214 00:11:46,400 --> 00:11:49,600 Speaker 1: As investors grew cautious following the recent rally to check 215 00:11:49,679 --> 00:11:52,240 Speaker 1: the markets every fifteen minutes throughout the trading day. On 216 00:11:52,320 --> 00:11:55,800 Speaker 1: Bloomberg SNP E Many futures down thirteen points, Dow E 217 00:11:55,840 --> 00:11:59,480 Speaker 1: Many futures down a hundred, naz Documni futures down thirties three. 218 00:11:59,559 --> 00:12:02,360 Speaker 1: That actually Germany's down to in a quarter percent ten. 219 00:12:02,440 --> 00:12:04,920 Speaker 1: Your treasury up nine thirty seconds, the yield one point 220 00:12:04,920 --> 00:12:07,800 Speaker 1: six five percent. Non max screwed oil down one and 221 00:12:07,840 --> 00:12:10,920 Speaker 1: a half percent or seventy three cents to three of 222 00:12:11,000 --> 00:12:13,920 Speaker 1: barrel COMEXS goal down to ten percent or two dollars 223 00:12:13,920 --> 00:12:17,240 Speaker 1: fifty cents to twelve seventy thirty announced the euro A 224 00:12:17,320 --> 00:12:20,560 Speaker 1: dollar thirteen oh seven, the n one oh six point 225 00:12:20,640 --> 00:12:24,960 Speaker 1: eight two and Pacific Investment management companies total return to 226 00:12:25,000 --> 00:12:28,320 Speaker 1: fund increased its holdings of US government and related debt 227 00:12:28,600 --> 00:12:31,520 Speaker 1: as treasuries surged along with bonds around the world. The 228 00:12:31,600 --> 00:12:34,200 Speaker 1: total return fund boosted at stake to thirty six point 229 00:12:34,200 --> 00:12:36,720 Speaker 1: four two percent of assets in May from thirty five 230 00:12:36,760 --> 00:12:39,280 Speaker 1: point eight six percent in April, according to data on 231 00:12:39,360 --> 00:12:42,560 Speaker 1: the company's website. As a Bloomberg Business Flash, Tom and 232 00:12:42,600 --> 00:12:46,640 Speaker 1: Mike Karen, thanks so much, Michael, McKain. Somebody said to me, 233 00:12:46,720 --> 00:12:49,520 Speaker 1: what's the one thing you look at on your Bloomberg screen? 234 00:12:50,440 --> 00:12:54,000 Speaker 1: In my answer, with a non correlative mess we're in, 235 00:12:55,040 --> 00:12:59,680 Speaker 1: is that answer shifts about every seven minutes forty two seconds. 236 00:13:00,120 --> 00:13:03,400 Speaker 1: It takes you that long. Right now, it's the German 237 00:13:03,600 --> 00:13:06,640 Speaker 1: two year. I would not have told you that seven 238 00:13:06,640 --> 00:13:10,680 Speaker 1: minutes were looking at the German tenure, or then it 239 00:13:10,720 --> 00:13:13,439 Speaker 1: could be the en folks. And what I want to 240 00:13:13,480 --> 00:13:17,160 Speaker 1: convey is sort of like there's the jobs reporter, there's 241 00:13:17,200 --> 00:13:21,560 Speaker 1: something going on, sort of everything moves together. That's not 242 00:13:22,000 --> 00:13:25,079 Speaker 1: the case with what we've seen the last couple of days. 243 00:13:25,840 --> 00:13:28,720 Speaker 1: It's it's nuanced, is the one word I would use. 244 00:13:29,240 --> 00:13:32,600 Speaker 1: The tape has actually been pretty constructive the last forty 245 00:13:32,640 --> 00:13:35,439 Speaker 1: five minutes, given what we've seen the last two or 246 00:13:35,480 --> 00:13:38,520 Speaker 1: three days. But I could change that in a heartbeat, 247 00:13:40,040 --> 00:13:43,760 Speaker 1: just over what ticks on my screen. Well, exactly, um 248 00:13:43,840 --> 00:13:47,000 Speaker 1: and and uh, we're getting more people at work, so 249 00:13:47,559 --> 00:13:54,880 Speaker 1: volume is rising, which is exactly, but you're one six. 250 00:13:54,920 --> 00:13:56,880 Speaker 1: We've got a stronger yarro over the last twenty minutes 251 00:13:56,880 --> 00:13:59,600 Speaker 1: for those keeping score. Yeah, but the currency we want 252 00:13:59,600 --> 00:14:01,679 Speaker 1: to talk about is the swissy at the moment with 253 00:14:01,760 --> 00:14:07,280 Speaker 1: Jane Foley, um, senior foreign exchange tragist at at Robbo Banks. 254 00:14:08,320 --> 00:14:11,240 Speaker 1: Right now we're getting her back. Help me here because 255 00:14:11,240 --> 00:14:17,040 Speaker 1: I was out doing television, Michael, New York to Abusia Avisa. 256 00:14:17,080 --> 00:14:20,520 Speaker 1: Is that how you pronouncing? It's a very routine flight 257 00:14:20,560 --> 00:14:22,360 Speaker 1: because I think you and I need to do some 258 00:14:22,400 --> 00:14:26,120 Speaker 1: market research here. Yeah, we're gonna find a lot of 259 00:14:26,160 --> 00:14:30,480 Speaker 1: a lot of traders there, New York, Abisa. It's it's recently, 260 00:14:30,480 --> 00:14:33,800 Speaker 1: it's where you want to go, m but maybe where 261 00:14:33,840 --> 00:14:37,280 Speaker 1: Thomas Jordan's wants to go. He is, of course the 262 00:14:37,320 --> 00:14:41,880 Speaker 1: president of the Swiss National Bank. Um, Jane. He has 263 00:14:41,920 --> 00:14:47,200 Speaker 1: done and and his predecessors have done everything humanly possible, 264 00:14:47,240 --> 00:14:50,640 Speaker 1: it seems to try to keep their currency from uh 265 00:14:51,080 --> 00:14:55,600 Speaker 1: just going overboard. Um and they they've gone up, they've 266 00:14:55,680 --> 00:15:00,440 Speaker 1: gone down, and uh with with their their I'm buying 267 00:15:00,440 --> 00:15:02,400 Speaker 1: to try to influence the currency, and it's just that 268 00:15:02,480 --> 00:15:06,280 Speaker 1: they're just being overwhelmed. If we get Brexit, is there 269 00:15:06,320 --> 00:15:09,800 Speaker 1: any hope for the Swiss? No? You know what, if 270 00:15:09,800 --> 00:15:11,840 Speaker 1: we get a Brexit, then I think that there will 271 00:15:11,880 --> 00:15:14,640 Speaker 1: be a huge third in demand for the Swiss Frank. Now, 272 00:15:14,800 --> 00:15:17,280 Speaker 1: if we look back to to last summer. Then that's 273 00:15:17,320 --> 00:15:20,320 Speaker 1: of course when the Chinese stock market bubble burst, and 274 00:15:20,320 --> 00:15:22,440 Speaker 1: of course then we had some movement into safe haven. 275 00:15:22,440 --> 00:15:25,400 Speaker 1: Now you could argue that the Swiss Frank didn't perform 276 00:15:25,520 --> 00:15:28,360 Speaker 1: that well compared with some other safe haven so maybe 277 00:15:28,360 --> 00:15:30,720 Speaker 1: they're the Swiss did have a little bit of success 278 00:15:30,760 --> 00:15:33,760 Speaker 1: with their policies and and steering away some of the 279 00:15:33,800 --> 00:15:36,760 Speaker 1: safe haven flow. But given that a Brexit would be 280 00:15:36,800 --> 00:15:40,960 Speaker 1: European oriented, I do think that the Swiss Frank is 281 00:15:40,960 --> 00:15:44,680 Speaker 1: in the front line really in terms of the investors 282 00:15:44,680 --> 00:15:49,480 Speaker 1: trying to buy an alternative non EU European currency. Now 283 00:15:49,560 --> 00:15:51,840 Speaker 1: you could say, what about the Danish crona, what about 284 00:15:51,840 --> 00:15:55,240 Speaker 1: the Norwegian credit? But of course liquidity is something which 285 00:15:55,280 --> 00:15:58,360 Speaker 1: those currencies don't have. So I think inevitably we we 286 00:15:58,480 --> 00:16:01,440 Speaker 1: dropped on euro at Swiss we dropped we need quite 287 00:16:01,480 --> 00:16:05,560 Speaker 1: hard and then they could perhats cut right, So let's 288 00:16:05,560 --> 00:16:08,600 Speaker 1: brain this for mere mortals. Jane Foul, you mentioned Dannis crona. 289 00:16:08,640 --> 00:16:11,240 Speaker 1: I featured euro Danish corona all week, which is two 290 00:16:11,280 --> 00:16:15,560 Speaker 1: standard deviations strong Danish looking back fifteen years. I mean, 291 00:16:15,600 --> 00:16:19,280 Speaker 1: are these adjacent sees, these oddities within Europe? I agree 292 00:16:19,280 --> 00:16:23,280 Speaker 1: with Mike nothing is more profound is the euro Swiss 293 00:16:23,440 --> 00:16:26,720 Speaker 1: example of sort of the litmus paper that someone like 294 00:16:26,800 --> 00:16:30,960 Speaker 1: you sees off your desk. I just modeled Euroswissy and 295 00:16:31,000 --> 00:16:37,320 Speaker 1: it's two point six standard deviations strong Swiss in the 296 00:16:37,440 --> 00:16:42,760 Speaker 1: last five days. That can't continue. Would you suggest we 297 00:16:42,800 --> 00:16:46,640 Speaker 1: could see the drama of that January long ago where 298 00:16:46,640 --> 00:16:50,120 Speaker 1: the Swiss just said enough. Well, I think the drama 299 00:16:50,320 --> 00:16:53,360 Speaker 1: last January was just probably a once in a career move. 300 00:16:53,440 --> 00:16:55,280 Speaker 1: I mean that was huge, and at that point of 301 00:16:55,360 --> 00:16:58,200 Speaker 1: course they walked away from that one four which they 302 00:16:58,200 --> 00:17:01,160 Speaker 1: have been protecting. Now they're not protect in the floor anymore. 303 00:17:01,200 --> 00:17:04,240 Speaker 1: But yes, they have been intervening in order to moderate 304 00:17:04,320 --> 00:17:07,280 Speaker 1: the games, in order to turn tease euro Swiss higher. 305 00:17:07,280 --> 00:17:09,840 Speaker 1: And actually this year you could say, well the Swissy 306 00:17:09,960 --> 00:17:13,200 Speaker 1: was performing relatively well. It weakened a little bit in February. 307 00:17:13,280 --> 00:17:16,080 Speaker 1: We can still the highest level Swiss since that movement 308 00:17:16,160 --> 00:17:18,600 Speaker 1: last January. But you know, in in in an event 309 00:17:18,720 --> 00:17:21,600 Speaker 1: like a Brexit, I don't think it's going to be 310 00:17:21,680 --> 00:17:23,960 Speaker 1: easy for the the Swiss authority to stand in the 311 00:17:24,000 --> 00:17:26,800 Speaker 1: way of Swiss buying Mike the euros Swiss for those 312 00:17:26,840 --> 00:17:29,360 Speaker 1: are keeping score folks, we go to five digits. When 313 00:17:29,359 --> 00:17:34,880 Speaker 1: we're talking Euroswissy one point zero eight nine five seven 314 00:17:35,520 --> 00:17:40,480 Speaker 1: three standard deviations. Strong Swiss is one point zero eight 315 00:17:40,640 --> 00:17:44,800 Speaker 1: five four one. That's how close we are, Mike to 316 00:17:44,960 --> 00:17:48,560 Speaker 1: a three standard deviation move. Four people just drove off 317 00:17:48,600 --> 00:17:51,959 Speaker 1: the Garden State Parkway. But that's the kind of stuff 318 00:17:52,280 --> 00:17:55,040 Speaker 1: pros and look at with their bloombergs when they look 319 00:17:55,080 --> 00:18:00,000 Speaker 1: at these tensions. Obviously, Um, if you know, if if 320 00:18:00,040 --> 00:18:02,080 Speaker 1: for your scenario comes to pass, Jane, you're going to 321 00:18:02,119 --> 00:18:04,640 Speaker 1: have people calling rabble bank and saying, you know, buy 322 00:18:04,680 --> 00:18:07,919 Speaker 1: me some of them Swissies. Uh, you've got a model. 323 00:18:08,000 --> 00:18:11,280 Speaker 1: Then how the Swiss National Bank might react if if 324 00:18:11,320 --> 00:18:14,240 Speaker 1: they're not going to walk away that was a once 325 00:18:14,240 --> 00:18:17,879 Speaker 1: in a lifetime move, then what could they do that 326 00:18:17,960 --> 00:18:20,840 Speaker 1: would have an impact? Yeah, they can raise rates, but 327 00:18:20,920 --> 00:18:25,359 Speaker 1: you know, move rates around. But but but is that 328 00:18:25,400 --> 00:18:28,359 Speaker 1: really gonna matter? No? And that's a problem. And I 329 00:18:28,400 --> 00:18:30,280 Speaker 1: think this is a problem that this authorities have been 330 00:18:30,359 --> 00:18:34,359 Speaker 1: scrappling with really since the nineties safe haven flows, intermittent 331 00:18:34,400 --> 00:18:37,200 Speaker 1: safe haven flows, and again more recently, of course it's 332 00:18:37,040 --> 00:18:40,840 Speaker 1: the Greek crisis and that that really pushed into their 333 00:18:41,160 --> 00:18:43,679 Speaker 1: performant to their minds that the problems that they have 334 00:18:44,040 --> 00:18:46,560 Speaker 1: with safe Haven. If we look at the Swiss frank 335 00:18:46,600 --> 00:18:50,920 Speaker 1: on almost any measure, it's very overvalued. Now this is economy, well, 336 00:18:50,960 --> 00:18:53,360 Speaker 1: it just about grew in the first quarter, but certainly 337 00:18:53,600 --> 00:18:55,920 Speaker 1: for exporters, it's the last thing that they would want 338 00:18:56,119 --> 00:18:59,159 Speaker 1: to see, that the Swiss Franc strength. And everybody knows this, 339 00:18:59,400 --> 00:19:01,199 Speaker 1: and yet there's to be very little that they can 340 00:19:01,240 --> 00:19:02,960 Speaker 1: do now. I think most of all they we just 341 00:19:03,080 --> 00:19:06,679 Speaker 1: intervene more. I think that's the first defense that they 342 00:19:06,680 --> 00:19:08,720 Speaker 1: would have if we dropped to say one oh five 343 00:19:08,720 --> 00:19:11,240 Speaker 1: and euros with they make up rates again. But of 344 00:19:11,280 --> 00:19:14,000 Speaker 1: course they've already got negative interest rates. We know the debates, 345 00:19:14,040 --> 00:19:17,479 Speaker 1: we know the question marks about negative interest rates, and 346 00:19:17,480 --> 00:19:20,000 Speaker 1: and how far could they go into negative territory. We 347 00:19:20,080 --> 00:19:22,600 Speaker 1: know it couldn't carry on. So I think we would 348 00:19:22,640 --> 00:19:26,560 Speaker 1: almost inevitably have more Swiss strength. The best case scenario 349 00:19:26,600 --> 00:19:28,520 Speaker 1: for them would be, of course, of a main vote 350 00:19:28,560 --> 00:19:30,320 Speaker 1: for the UK, and of course the other thing that 351 00:19:30,359 --> 00:19:35,000 Speaker 1: they want is more normalization in European economy. Jane Folly, 352 00:19:35,200 --> 00:19:39,679 Speaker 1: what short short, short, short term paper market do you 353 00:19:39,840 --> 00:19:44,520 Speaker 1: look at to show the oil within the engine, the 354 00:19:44,680 --> 00:19:48,480 Speaker 1: smoothly running engine, we used to look at libor or 355 00:19:48,640 --> 00:19:53,000 Speaker 1: library o I s are long ago the TED spread folks, 356 00:19:53,080 --> 00:19:56,680 Speaker 1: which has nothing to do with TED technology speaking, what 357 00:19:56,720 --> 00:19:58,480 Speaker 1: do you look at when you come in in the 358 00:19:58,560 --> 00:20:01,879 Speaker 1: morning and you crank up the mouse and the bloomberg 359 00:20:02,400 --> 00:20:05,280 Speaker 1: and you look at short term paper? What is the 360 00:20:05,320 --> 00:20:10,040 Speaker 1: indicator do your Well? I am looking at volatility, particularly 361 00:20:10,080 --> 00:20:12,399 Speaker 1: in Sterling right now, and of course over the last 362 00:20:12,800 --> 00:20:16,680 Speaker 1: two weeks we've seen a massive peak in in volatility, 363 00:20:16,760 --> 00:20:20,919 Speaker 1: massive move higher in volatility in Sterling. Perhaps you know 364 00:20:21,000 --> 00:20:24,240 Speaker 1: that's to be expected, but but really how far can 365 00:20:24,280 --> 00:20:27,520 Speaker 1: this go? And how far can that volatility extend across 366 00:20:27,560 --> 00:20:31,560 Speaker 1: other safe havens? And again that's because the Brexit question 367 00:20:31,560 --> 00:20:34,240 Speaker 1: mark is not just about the UK, it is, okay, 368 00:20:34,760 --> 00:20:38,560 Speaker 1: does that volatility quickly? Does that volatility suggest the direction 369 00:20:38,680 --> 00:20:44,199 Speaker 1: of Sterling? Are you preparing for a one nine? I 370 00:20:44,200 --> 00:20:46,600 Speaker 1: think I think Cable could drop black a stone if 371 00:20:46,680 --> 00:20:50,159 Speaker 1: we do get that. That that's that Brexit vote. But 372 00:20:50,200 --> 00:20:52,880 Speaker 1: of course the Euro would come under some pressure as well, 373 00:20:52,920 --> 00:20:55,000 Speaker 1: not as much as Sterling, but certainly under some pressure 374 00:20:55,040 --> 00:20:58,280 Speaker 1: too because of the question marks over the occurrence of 375 00:20:58,680 --> 00:21:03,240 Speaker 1: the EU in Main and Europe. One last quick question 376 00:21:03,400 --> 00:21:06,359 Speaker 1: is there as out of all this and concerns, is 377 00:21:06,359 --> 00:21:10,439 Speaker 1: there a dollar shortage developing out there seems to be 378 00:21:10,720 --> 00:21:15,280 Speaker 1: when you look at the cross currency swaps spreads, I 379 00:21:15,320 --> 00:21:17,199 Speaker 1: think you know that the dollar is certainly going to 380 00:21:17,280 --> 00:21:20,520 Speaker 1: be favorite, the dollar the end the Swiss Frank if 381 00:21:20,520 --> 00:21:23,120 Speaker 1: we did, if we were to get that Brexit uncertain 382 00:21:23,160 --> 00:21:26,720 Speaker 1: to vote coming through, certainly the dollar would be favored. 383 00:21:26,760 --> 00:21:30,359 Speaker 1: But then of course we moved towards November, and then 384 00:21:30,400 --> 00:21:32,760 Speaker 1: we've got to start question yourself, do we get political 385 00:21:32,840 --> 00:21:36,480 Speaker 1: risk in the dollar And it's so again that could 386 00:21:36,560 --> 00:21:39,680 Speaker 1: change the dynamic as well. Jane Folly, thank you so much, 387 00:21:39,680 --> 00:21:42,960 Speaker 1: greatly appreciate it. With RAB Mike, somebody said the nicest 388 00:21:42,960 --> 00:21:46,520 Speaker 1: things about Jane Foley today really, which is one of 389 00:21:46,520 --> 00:21:50,160 Speaker 1: our listeners. When she's on. When she's on, things are clearer. 390 00:21:50,880 --> 00:21:53,520 Speaker 1: So we thank Saint Jane for coming on today and 391 00:21:54,240 --> 00:21:58,200 Speaker 1: saving you and me but providing clarity here. And she said, folks, 392 00:21:58,200 --> 00:22:00,359 Speaker 1: and you know, we don't have a call on Brexit 393 00:22:00,400 --> 00:22:03,000 Speaker 1: to say the least remains. I have no idea, but 394 00:22:03,040 --> 00:22:06,639 Speaker 1: a one zero zero is a good benchmark as we 395 00:22:06,680 --> 00:22:09,800 Speaker 1: look at polling that may move that statistic over the 396 00:22:09,840 --> 00:22:13,520 Speaker 1: next week. Are we flying first class? Are we flying coach? 397 00:22:14,240 --> 00:22:17,240 Speaker 1: I'm so far in the rear of the airplane. I'm 398 00:22:17,280 --> 00:22:20,600 Speaker 1: just checking. I am, I am bad. When we go 399 00:22:20,720 --> 00:22:23,040 Speaker 1: over for Brexit, I am so far in the back 400 00:22:23,400 --> 00:22:25,840 Speaker 1: I don't even think I get a walk Walker's biscuits 401 00:22:26,359 --> 00:22:27,560 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Surveillance