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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman. It is Tuesday afternoon. Later on

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Speaker 1: in the show, we're gonna have Darren revel Is gonna

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Speaker 1: come back on the show, although I don't know why

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Speaker 1: we're doing that, because he's gonna join me in Professional

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Speaker 1: Better Simon Hunter as we try to make our five

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Speaker 1: picks for the Westgate Las Vegas super Contest where we're

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Speaker 1: trying to win one point five million dollars. Last week

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Speaker 1: we went four and one. Darren was not involved in

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Speaker 1: anything that we did, and yet we are still inviting

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Speaker 1: him back. We are sixteen and nine on the year.

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Speaker 1: This is the best I've ever done in the super

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Speaker 1: Contest through um these first few weeks. Uh, through the

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Speaker 1: first five weeks. I guess sixteen and nine is twenty

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Speaker 1: five games, five five games a week. But first, joining

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Speaker 1: me from the New Orleans representing all the Boyd Gaming

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Speaker 1: books in the state of Nevada and throughout the country,

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Speaker 1: Mr Bob Scucci, the most majestic man in all of bookmaking. Chad,

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Speaker 1: what's going on? Brother? You were given a gift this

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Speaker 1: past week. Do you know what I'm talking about? No?

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Speaker 1: Did you did you not desperately need the Chiefs to lose,

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Speaker 1: not just not cover, but the Chiefs to lose outright? Oh? Absolutely? Wow.

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Speaker 1: So I don't see how that was a gift though

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Speaker 1: that When you say a gift, I thought, maybe, like,

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Speaker 1: you know, we got, you know, a bad beat that

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Speaker 1: went our way. It was just clearly the right side

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Speaker 1: we were. We had that game in the bag from

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Speaker 1: the beginning. No, Jesus, clearly the right side. You act

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Speaker 1: like you know, you act like you know what you're

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Speaker 1: doing on a day to day basis, when at the

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Speaker 1: end of the day, all of this is pot luck,

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Speaker 1: my friend, pot luck. Absolutely no my days, my my

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Speaker 1: day can swing hundreds of thousands of dollars by a

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Speaker 1: joint field goal attempt. So yeah, now I I know

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Speaker 1: how much luck is involved. Uh. Speaking of luck, I

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Speaker 1: um also in my quest for two hundred and fifty six,

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Speaker 1: I went to nine and six this past week, and um,

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Speaker 1: I am now thirteen games over five hundred for the year.

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Speaker 1: I'm picking every game, and I am thirteen games over

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Speaker 1: five dred Scooch. That's kind of scary. You know, it's

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Speaker 1: almost due for a little bit of a regression. Well,

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Speaker 1: it's not gonna be this week, my friend, let's continue.

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Speaker 1: I might have to fade all your plays today Today,

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Speaker 1: Thursday night, we got a burn burner. We got the

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Speaker 1: New York Football Giants visiting New England. It's gonna be crappy,

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Speaker 1: crappy weather, windy, rainy, ugly northeast New England football. I

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Speaker 1: don't even know if the New York Giants can feel

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Speaker 1: the team. Right now, the line at the Orleans is

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Speaker 1: sixteen and a half. The total is forty two and

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Speaker 1: a half. Um, talk to me, Goose. Yeah, well, we'll

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Speaker 1: just trying to open as uh as high as possible,

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Speaker 1: knowing that New England's gonna draw money everything time. So

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Speaker 1: we we opened sixteen and a half, and as usual,

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Speaker 1: the first bets out of the gate were on New England.

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Speaker 1: But it wasn't necessarily sharp money, it was just big

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Speaker 1: public money. We went right to seventeen very very quickly,

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Speaker 1: and then we did get some big money on the

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Speaker 1: Giants have plus seventeen h that made us go back

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Speaker 1: to sixteen and a half. But you know, a lot

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Speaker 1: of this is just gonna depend on You mentioned that

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Speaker 1: the Giants are just plagued with injuries. They've they've got

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Speaker 1: the short week. Both of them have the short week

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Speaker 1: trying to get all these guys healthy. But the entire

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Speaker 1: linebacker crew for the for the Giants is kind of

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Speaker 1: listed as questionable. They were practicing a little bit today.

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Speaker 1: That it's not the team you want to be facing

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Speaker 1: with injuries to your linebacking crew. That's that's for sure. Um.

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Speaker 1: The only good news is is se Kwon Barkley might

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Speaker 1: He was on the field today practice and he might play.

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Speaker 1: But they they've got injuries to Evan ing Room and

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Speaker 1: and um Sterling Shepherd, so they're really really banged up.

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Speaker 1: It's too bad too, Like they were starting to show

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Speaker 1: some life. I thought they were the totally wrong side

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Speaker 1: this past week and so that paid off for a

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Speaker 1: lot of people. But they were starting to show a

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Speaker 1: little bit of life, and so it would have been

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Speaker 1: interesting to see how Daniel Jones can do as a

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Speaker 1: heading into New England against this defense with a full compliment.

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Speaker 1: I don't think we're gonna see that this week. Yeah no,

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Speaker 1: I mean actually the bad weather we're actually hoping for

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Speaker 1: for bad weather that usually plays in the underdogs favor,

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Speaker 1: especially getting sixteen and a half points. We've got the

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Speaker 1: total at forty two and a half, so figures to

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Speaker 1: be somewhat low scoring, so that that might play into

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Speaker 1: our favor, and that's probably what's drawing some of the

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Speaker 1: sharp money on on the Giants, even with the banged

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Speaker 1: up staff. Um. You know, I agree with you. On

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Speaker 1: the Giants. We weren't quite sold on it. Just a

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Speaker 1: couple of real good performances by Daniel Jones and the

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Speaker 1: and the team that you know, they were playing a

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Speaker 1: bad a couple of bad teams. But the going up

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Speaker 1: against the Vikings, we really liked the Vikings and we

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Speaker 1: tried to put it ourselves in a position where we

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Speaker 1: need at the Vikings. We got a little early Giants

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Speaker 1: money last week, but by the end of the week

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Speaker 1: all the sharp bunny came in on Minnesota. We ended

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Speaker 1: up losing that game anyway, even though we also like

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Speaker 1: like the Vikings. That was one of my mistakes last week.

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Speaker 1: I had three big mistakes last week. One of them

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Speaker 1: was instead of just playing the Giant playing the Vikings

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Speaker 1: out right, I decided to get fancy and play the

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Speaker 1: over because I thought they were just going to come

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Speaker 1: out and try to throw the ball, which they did.

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Speaker 1: I just thought the Giants might score a little more points.

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Speaker 1: All right, h next week kicking up at nine thirty

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Speaker 1: in the morning Eastern, playing in London. It feels like

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Speaker 1: Carolina and Tampa Blay played each other practically every week. Uh,

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Speaker 1: Kyle Allen, Jamis Winston the Carolina Panthers on a neutral field. Uh,

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Speaker 1: this is quite a surprise. Opening is one and a

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Speaker 1: half point favorites right now with a backup quarterback who's

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Speaker 1: on a hot streak against the Tampa Bay team that

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Speaker 1: looks that looks a little bit like um it got

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Speaker 1: exposed this past week. Uh So Scooch, how did you

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Speaker 1: make this line? And where are they playing it? Yeah,

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Speaker 1: we actually opened to pick them on this and we've

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Speaker 1: seen a lot of action on this already. Right out

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Speaker 1: of the gate, they laid pick with Carolina. Well, we

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Speaker 1: went to one, they laid the one, We went to

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Speaker 1: one and a half, and then they laid one and

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Speaker 1: a half. Uh, we skipped to we went right to

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Speaker 1: two and a half, and that's when we got a

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Speaker 1: little bite back on Tampa Bay um at plus two

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Speaker 1: and a half, and then we went right back to

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Speaker 1: one and a half, which is kind of where we're

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Speaker 1: sitting now. A little bit heavier on the ticket count

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Speaker 1: on the Panthers, But um, it's actually kind of an

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Speaker 1: intriguing game that Uh. We we really liked Carolina last week.

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Speaker 1: We tried to put ourselves in a position we felt

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Speaker 1: like that was a good spot for them. Uh. We

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Speaker 1: we liked their defense all year. Uh it was just

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Speaker 1: like you mentioned the quarterback, Uh posit. She was kind

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Speaker 1: of what was the question mark with this team? So,

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Speaker 1: um this, I think I think we're in a good

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Speaker 1: spot here. We got pretty good two way at one

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Speaker 1: and a half. Now we'll probably still end up needing

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Speaker 1: Tampa Bay. I also loved Carolina last week, as you recall,

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Speaker 1: I had him in Scooch roulette. They covered handily, and

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Speaker 1: we will play Scooch letting. I don't know handily. It

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Speaker 1: was pretty close there at the end. Jacksonville gave him.

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Speaker 1: I think it was thirty seven and Jacksonville was driving.

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Speaker 1: I think it was like an interception that that finally

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Speaker 1: uh killed him there at the end. But they had

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Speaker 1: a shot to tie it up late. I didn't sweat,

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Speaker 1: not one second. You had Houston and scootre a lot,

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Speaker 1: and we'll get to that. We had We will get

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Speaker 1: to that they made it very easy for you. But

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Speaker 1: the next game on the board of Cincinnati at Baltimore.

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Speaker 1: Baltimore and eleven point favorite over the hapless Bengals. Um,

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Speaker 1: what's interesting to me. You have it at eleven fifty

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Speaker 1: percent of the money so far coming in on Cincinnati. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: this is an interesting We opened it twelve, and you know,

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Speaker 1: I'm surprised at all the Bengals money. And uh, I

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Speaker 1: would like to kind of take a mulligan on this

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Speaker 1: one and open it lower, because you know, I liked

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Speaker 1: looking at common teams and and and like past performances

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Speaker 1: of a couple of the games that didn't make sense

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Speaker 1: a few weeks ago but now make a little sense now.

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Speaker 1: And I'm going back to the game Cincinnati played against

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Speaker 1: San Francisco and Cincinnati was at home, and Cincinnati just

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Speaker 1: got blown out by San Francisco. And yeah, the Bengals

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Speaker 1: are bad, but not that bad in light of the

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Speaker 1: fact that now San Francisco looks like they're not a

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Speaker 1: bad team. So they didn't get blown out by a

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Speaker 1: bad team. They got blown out by a pretty decent team.

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Speaker 1: And it turns out the Ravens probably we were slowly

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Speaker 1: adjusting them downwards, but maybe we haven't adjusted them down

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Speaker 1: quite enough. So a lot of money on the Bengals,

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Speaker 1: both from the public and the sharp guys. And I

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Speaker 1: always say, anytime you have both the publican the sharps

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Speaker 1: on the same side, we probably made a mistake here.

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Speaker 1: So I think that's too many points for Baltimore. Delay.

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Speaker 1: What do you think this line should have been? I

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Speaker 1: think probably about nine nine and a half. I don't

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Speaker 1: know how anyonere in their right mind could bet on

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Speaker 1: Cincinnati right now. Yeah, you know, I can't. I have

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Speaker 1: to go back pretty far to see so many bad

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Speaker 1: teams to the start of the season. I mean, there's

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Speaker 1: there's about eight teams that either have one win or

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Speaker 1: no wins, and the disparity between the really good teams

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Speaker 1: and the really bad teams it seems to be growing.

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Speaker 1: You have those topping league teams and then the bad

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Speaker 1: teams are just really really bad. And unfortunately we have

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Speaker 1: to winless teams playing each other this week. At least

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Speaker 1: one of them has to get a win, and in

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Speaker 1: Washington in Miami we'll get to that one. But but yeah,

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Speaker 1: I watched his Bengals team and they just are really

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Speaker 1: really bad. Uh, speaking of bad and not really knowing

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Speaker 1: who they are. The Seattle Seahawks are going to Cleveland

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Speaker 1: there one point favorites. This feels like a season making

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Speaker 1: game for the Cleveland Browns. Uh. Is Freddie Kitchens just awful?

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Speaker 1: Do you fire him right now? Because you cannot waste

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Speaker 1: a season of O B J. Landry and Baker Mayfield

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Speaker 1: and Nick Chubb and Myles Garrett and like you can

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Speaker 1: go down the list. There is phenomenal talent on this team.

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Speaker 1: And this team last night came out on a Monday

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Speaker 1: night football game and played horribly. They looked confused, they

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Speaker 1: looked unprepared. Freddie Kitchens was making bad decisions literally from

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Speaker 1: the coin flip um this team. I can't imagine a

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Speaker 1: team that has dropped more in the procession of the

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Speaker 1: public in the last five weeks than the Cleveland brown Yeah,

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Speaker 1: they really have. Fortunately though they're probably one of the

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Speaker 1: worst divisions right now. Uh you know, between between the

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Speaker 1: Ravens Pittsburgh the Bengals and at two and three, they

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Speaker 1: still got a legitimate shot to kind of win that division.

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Speaker 1: So it's really early and I think you give you

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Speaker 1: give Kitchens a lot of leeway before you start putting

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Speaker 1: them on the hot seat. And you you mentioned something interesting.

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Speaker 1: You said that they looked unprepared. And there's many times

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Speaker 1: that I find, at least in my opinion, that a

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Speaker 1: team will prepare for one game and not necessarily not

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Speaker 1: go into a game unprepared, but just maybe over overlook

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Speaker 1: this game to prepare for the next game, which they

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Speaker 1: may consider a little bigger. And I would not be

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Speaker 1: surprised if Cleveland showed up and beat Seattle, because I

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Speaker 1: do think they were preparing probably a little bit more

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Speaker 1: for this game. And and like you mentioned this, this

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Speaker 1: is a real key spot for them at home. Um,

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Speaker 1: you know, Baker Mayfield has got tremendous talent. I mean,

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Speaker 1: look at what he was able to do last year. Uh.

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Speaker 1: They I think their problem is probably on the offensive line. Obviously,

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Speaker 1: just for watching that game last night, can't give him

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Speaker 1: enough protection. He can't can't look at the second and

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Speaker 1: third receivers. He doesn't. He just doesn't have time in

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Speaker 1: the pocket. So I we opened this game one and

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Speaker 1: all the early money is on Seattle, but it's not

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Speaker 1: necessarily some of the big shark money that we typically see.

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Speaker 1: So the sharp guys haven't weighed in it's all public

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Speaker 1: money driving this up to one and a half. And

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Speaker 1: like I said, I think there might be a spot

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Speaker 1: for Cleveland. I agree. I totally agree. Like we have

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Speaker 1: back to back in Seattle Cleveland and Houston Kansas City,

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Speaker 1: we have back to back public perception games, right, and

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Speaker 1: so we could talk about then both in sort of

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Speaker 1: as a couple these two games. Because you're gonna get

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Speaker 1: Houston going to Kansas City. There are five and a

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Speaker 1: half point dogs on the road to the chiefs um

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Speaker 1: at the Orleans right now. And again, like everything I'm

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Speaker 1: looking at, you can get the Action Network app. Download

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Speaker 1: the Action Network app for free. You're gonna get like,

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Speaker 1: you're gonna get the money percentages, you're gonna get the

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Speaker 1: spread percentages. You're gonna get lines from all over the country.

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Speaker 1: I'm looking at the Orleans. I'm seeing five and a

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Speaker 1: half and I feel like that's downgraded a little bit

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Speaker 1: because Houston beata did so well in Kansas City lost.

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Speaker 1: Yeah it is. You know, this line probably would have

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Speaker 1: been about seven a couple of a couple of weeks ago.

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Speaker 1: Even when people kind of lost confidence in Houston. We

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Speaker 1: didn't really give up on them, just off of the uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, the one week against Carolina that that they lost,

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Speaker 1: and so we we kind of felt Houston would bounce back.

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Speaker 1: And Houston has got a real good offense. You know,

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Speaker 1: we saw that in Week one against against the Saints. Uh.

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Speaker 1: But but yeah, there's a little bit of a downgrade

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Speaker 1: here and uh and again talking about the teams that

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Speaker 1: look ahead to prepare for what they consider big games.

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Speaker 1: Look back a couple of weeks ago when the Colts

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Speaker 1: played the Raiders, and the Colts were about a seven

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Speaker 1: point favorite at home against the Raiders, and nobody could

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Speaker 1: understand how the Raiders could beat them, uh, straight up.

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Speaker 1: But then it kind of makes a little bit of

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Speaker 1: a sense, at least to me, when the Colts may

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Speaker 1: have been looking to really prepare for the Chiefs and

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Speaker 1: then that's the game that they really show up for

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Speaker 1: and end up, uh, you know, playing the game of

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Speaker 1: the year against a really good Chiefs team. So that's

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Speaker 1: why you have to kind of look and see what

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Speaker 1: the schedule lays out, because it's it's a long season,

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Speaker 1: and outside of the Patriots, most teams can't prepare the

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Speaker 1: same level of intensity every single week. Uh So so

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Speaker 1: here we have the Texans and the Chiefs. We opened

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Speaker 1: five and a half and we're not getting the typical

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Speaker 1: kind of you know, uh, just lopsided action that we

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Speaker 1: typically get on the Chiefs. We're not seeing that. It's

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Speaker 1: about a two to one ratio Chiefs detections. But it's

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Speaker 1: funny how just one week and one loss can really

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Speaker 1: slow down, uh, that kind of avalanche of bets that

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Speaker 1: had been coming since the beginning of the year. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's kind of stunning. And by the way, Kansas City

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Speaker 1: plays Denver the week after Cleveland, I think Cleveland has

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Speaker 1: a by the week after, So this is a game

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Speaker 1: Cleveland should be totally prepped for and ready to go.

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Speaker 1: I've never been more ready to lay my mortgage down

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Speaker 1: on Cleveland. By the way, Like I need to see

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Speaker 1: a little bit more about the injury report on Kansas

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Speaker 1: City before I decide if I'm getting value there. But initially,

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Speaker 1: initially my feeling is I'm getting a lot of value

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Speaker 1: on Kansas City. That's what I'm thinking. Yeah, And and

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Speaker 1: we you really have to look at mahomes effectiveness. You know,

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Speaker 1: he that ankle. You just wonder how much that ankle

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Speaker 1: is bothering him. And so so that's one thing to

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Speaker 1: to to kind of pay attention too. But but but yeah,

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Speaker 1: you're right. Uh, the injury report makes it makes a

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Speaker 1: big difference. And uh, I think we have the number.

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Speaker 1: It might be a little low, but Houston has come

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Speaker 1: up big for UCE a couple a couple of times

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Speaker 1: this year, So I think they I think they might

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Speaker 1: be a live dog. Well, you know how much I

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Speaker 1: love Houston. You know I love the Shaun Watson. This

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Speaker 1: is gonna be a very tough game for me. I'm

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Speaker 1: excited for you to choose Houston at plus five and

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Speaker 1: a half. In Scoot row let let's go on to uh,

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Speaker 1: New Orleans, New Orleans, let me talk. Let me talk

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Speaker 1: to you a second. It took you a second to

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Speaker 1: do what to catch up to the fact I was

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Speaker 1: saying it was gonna be that you were taking them in, Scootroulett. No, no, no,

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Speaker 1: I was just moving a line. You're going to the

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Speaker 1: Saints Jaguars game, and I just took some money on

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Speaker 1: the Jags and just went to one and a half. Wow,

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Speaker 1: line change, yep, just because we were getting to that game.

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Speaker 1: All right, Well, there you go. We're getting to the

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Speaker 1: Jags game. We're looking at New Orleans visiting Jacksonville right now,

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Speaker 1: and I see it lighting up on my screen. I

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Speaker 1: see the line at the Orleans just changed to one

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Speaker 1: and a half. The Jaguars are favored by one and

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Speaker 1: a half points. So you took some money on the

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Speaker 1: Jags right now? You took some money on the Jags. Uh,

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Speaker 1: even though six of the money right now is coming

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Speaker 1: in on New Orleans of the tickets. So would you

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Speaker 1: take some wise guy money there? Absolutely, this is a classic,

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Speaker 1: classic game where the wise guys are on one side

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Speaker 1: and the public is on the other. The Saints seem

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Speaker 1: to be moving up in everybody's power rankings. Uh some

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Speaker 1: really impressive wins the last two weeks, and uh so

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Speaker 1: so going into this game against the Jaguars, even though

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Speaker 1: they're on the road, it's a It's a game where

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Speaker 1: the public is just gonna say, she's a Saints are

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Speaker 1: like in the top five of uh of my power

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Speaker 1: ranking list, and and you know, how can you not

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Speaker 1: at the Saints. But this game reminds me a lot

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Speaker 1: of the Browns Seahawks game where the Jags the Jags

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Speaker 1: at home. You know, they were at one point to

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Speaker 1: pick them and and now they're laying one and a half.

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Speaker 1: But it's still seems like you know, from one and

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Speaker 1: a half to lay that that short home favorite, that

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Speaker 1: this might be the play. You know, those weeks when

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Speaker 1: the schedule starts to shake out and like we're finally

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Speaker 1: seeing it. You know, the Patriots not consistently covering, uh

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Speaker 1: or not consistently, but the Patriots, you know, having a

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Speaker 1: week where they didn't cover a couple of weeks ago.

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Speaker 1: Now the Chiefs going a couple of weeks without covering

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Speaker 1: and losing outright, Minnesota coming back a little bit, but

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Speaker 1: still playing a Philly team that looked dominant against the Jets,

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Speaker 1: Like Cleveland looking terrible, having Seattle visiting. Like, we're getting

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Speaker 1: the right scenarios where if you generally tend to play

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Speaker 1: short home dogs or you like to play against public perception, um,

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Speaker 1: you're getting those opportunities right now. And look, there's seventy

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Speaker 1: almost seventy of the money is on Seattle. Uh, that's

348
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Speaker 1: setting up to be a really nice spot to take Cleveland.

349
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Speaker 1: I'm looking right now, we're gonna move on to Philly

350
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Speaker 1: and Minnesota. Of the early money it's coming in on

351
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Speaker 1: Philadelphia against Minnesota. It's gonna be in Minnesota. The Vikings

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Speaker 1: are three point favorites. So basically, you know you're saying, um,

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Speaker 1: neutral field even, I'm gonna love the Vikings here. Uh yeah,

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Speaker 1: this is a tough one. Um, I think we have

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Speaker 1: the number right, so I don't think we're gonna move

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Speaker 1: this line at all. We may move the money off

357
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Speaker 1: of the minus three. The Vikings are minus three even

358
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Speaker 1: money right now, but we we did open three flats. So,

359
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Speaker 1: like you said, six four percent of the money on

360
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Speaker 1: on the Eagles, that's what we're seeing as well. Um,

361
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Speaker 1: not necessarily big money, just a lot of tickets. So

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Speaker 1: the public is really supporting the Eagles. Now, both teams

363
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Speaker 1: made a little bit of a come back after entering

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Speaker 1: the season with a lot of high expectations and then

365
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Speaker 1: having a couple of bad losses that made both teams

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Speaker 1: kind of dropped in most public's estimation. But but both

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Speaker 1: teams seem to have made a pretty good resurgence. Uh,

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Speaker 1: you know in the last couple of weeks. Uh, you know,

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Speaker 1: Minnesota with a decisive win that the last week, and

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Speaker 1: uh that the Eagles with a big win over the Packers. So, um,

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Speaker 1: I think that Eagles win probably looks a little bit

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Speaker 1: more impressive than the Vikings went over the Giants, and

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Speaker 1: I think so the public feels that even though they're

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Speaker 1: on the road getting points, they're probably the more value.

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Speaker 1: M hmm. Interesting. I don't feel that way at all. Actually,

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Speaker 1: I actually feel like they were impressive against the Jets

377
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Speaker 1: against the who the Eagles. I don't think they were

378
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Speaker 1: against the Jets. No, I said the Packers. No. No.

379
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Speaker 1: What I'm saying is like last week, the Eagles were

380
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Speaker 1: fourteen point favorites against the Jets, right, and they needed

381
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Speaker 1: like there was some defensive touchdown in there. It's not

382
00:22:08,080 --> 00:22:11,400
Speaker 1: like their offense went out there and dominated a Jets team.

383
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Speaker 1: And so them coming into Philadelphia, I feel like most

384
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Speaker 1: people are coming into Minnesota. I feel like most people

385
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Speaker 1: are gonna look at the box score and look at

386
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Speaker 1: the final score in that game, not the box score,

387
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Speaker 1: Whereas I actually feel like Minnesota's win against the Giants

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Speaker 1: was really impressive, um given the turmoil that they had

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Speaker 1: been under and what they had to do to get

390
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Speaker 1: through all that, And so I think that Philadelphia is

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Speaker 1: going to be overrated by the public. Minnesota is going

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Speaker 1: to be underrated by the public. I think you made

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Speaker 1: a line that is probably uh a little bit shaded

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Speaker 1: towards Philly. Uh. And I would give Minnesota like another

395
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Speaker 1: point at least, and so I'm taking him at minus three. Yeah. No,

396
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Speaker 1: I don't agree with that at all. I think, Wow, Yeah, No,

397
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Speaker 1: I don't disagree at all. I I just don't think

398
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Speaker 1: we're going to move this much. I And I'm fine

399
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Speaker 1: needing the vikings knowing that they're going to come in

400
00:23:05,440 --> 00:23:11,359
Speaker 1: on Philly. All right, all right, I'm just handicapping what

401
00:23:11,440 --> 00:23:18,720
Speaker 1: the public perception is. Well, pul perception. Public perception is

402
00:23:18,760 --> 00:23:20,760
Speaker 1: going to be to play Philly as it has shown,

403
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Speaker 1: and I'm going to play Minnesota. Yep. I might play

404
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Speaker 1: Minnesota in the money line. I took the play. Yeah,

405
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Speaker 1: what do you think of that? M m uh Listen,

406
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Speaker 1: here's my theory on Washington and Miami. I believe that, UM,

407
00:23:43,880 --> 00:23:47,399
Speaker 1: people generally bet on games because they want to have

408
00:23:47,440 --> 00:23:50,840
Speaker 1: a little bit more enjoyment at stake, and they bet

409
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Speaker 1: on games that they want to actually watch. So only

410
00:23:55,680 --> 00:24:00,920
Speaker 1: the like hardest of hardcore gamblers are going to bet

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Speaker 1: on Washington and Miami. Um. I almost want to spend

412
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Speaker 1: this time thinking of five other things I'd rather bet

413
00:24:07,320 --> 00:24:10,440
Speaker 1: on than Washington and Miami. How could I better spend

414
00:24:10,760 --> 00:24:17,080
Speaker 1: that fifty dollars that I might bet on this game? Um,

415
00:24:17,160 --> 00:24:19,560
Speaker 1: then watching this game for the lack of enjoyment that

416
00:24:19,600 --> 00:24:24,200
Speaker 1: will get from it is a better Yeah. I agree

417
00:24:24,200 --> 00:24:28,240
Speaker 1: with you there. Um, I wouldn't want to spend much

418
00:24:28,240 --> 00:24:31,880
Speaker 1: time on this game. Where Washington minus three and a half,

419
00:24:32,040 --> 00:24:34,400
Speaker 1: it's kind of a coin flip. I don't think we'll

420
00:24:34,440 --> 00:24:37,080
Speaker 1: get much interest. It will be the lowest bed game

421
00:24:37,119 --> 00:24:39,040
Speaker 1: on the board, and it'll be the corner TV game

422
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Speaker 1: corner team. Nobody. Yeah, nobody likes to watch bad teams.

423
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Speaker 1: I mean it's bad enough when when a bad team

424
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Speaker 1: is playing a really great team and you're just watching them,

425
00:24:49,080 --> 00:24:52,040
Speaker 1: you know, self destruction. But when two bad teams are playing,

426
00:24:52,119 --> 00:24:55,600
Speaker 1: it's it's it's you gotta turn the channel. For the

427
00:24:55,600 --> 00:24:57,560
Speaker 1: sake of argument, Why do you have Washington is a

428
00:24:57,640 --> 00:24:59,520
Speaker 1: three and a half point favorite when we're not even

429
00:24:59,560 --> 00:25:04,040
Speaker 1: sure if McCoy or case Keenum or someone else is

430
00:25:04,080 --> 00:25:08,440
Speaker 1: going to be the quarterback? Well, just on paper, uh,

431
00:25:08,800 --> 00:25:12,640
Speaker 1: adjusting the numbers each week, the Dolphins have been far

432
00:25:12,720 --> 00:25:16,480
Speaker 1: and away the worst team, uh, both against the against

433
00:25:16,480 --> 00:25:19,520
Speaker 1: the spread, and we look at the just the point

434
00:25:19,560 --> 00:25:23,639
Speaker 1: spread differentials. Uh, and I mean that's just the way

435
00:25:23,680 --> 00:25:26,320
Speaker 1: the numbers pan out on this one. Um, we think

436
00:25:26,359 --> 00:25:29,880
Speaker 1: it's right because, uh, the sharp guys didn't bet anything yet,

437
00:25:29,920 --> 00:25:32,640
Speaker 1: and usually they let us know when we're wrong. This

438
00:25:32,680 --> 00:25:36,240
Speaker 1: is the week Miami covers. I promise you this Washington

439
00:25:36,320 --> 00:25:39,439
Speaker 1: team is in disarray. Do you think Bill Callahan is

440
00:25:39,480 --> 00:25:42,600
Speaker 1: going in and saving that team and getting them inspired

441
00:25:42,880 --> 00:25:46,120
Speaker 1: to go down to Miami and play well and show up.

442
00:25:46,240 --> 00:25:50,840
Speaker 1: There's no way, no way. Give me the dollar minus

443
00:25:50,920 --> 00:25:53,399
Speaker 1: three and a half plus three and a half plus

444
00:25:53,440 --> 00:25:57,639
Speaker 1: three al plus three and a half. Uh. Listen, the

445
00:25:57,760 --> 00:26:01,560
Speaker 1: resurgent uh and undefeated Francisco forty niners are on the

446
00:26:01,640 --> 00:26:04,680
Speaker 1: road at the Los Angeles Rams. You have met three

447
00:26:04,720 --> 00:26:07,520
Speaker 1: and a half right now, money and tickets all coming

448
00:26:07,520 --> 00:26:12,760
Speaker 1: in on the Rams. Um, not surprising. What was the

449
00:26:12,760 --> 00:26:15,240
Speaker 1: look aheadline on this game? This is a you know,

450
00:26:16,320 --> 00:26:17,920
Speaker 1: I saw it as high as five and a half.

451
00:26:18,440 --> 00:26:21,359
Speaker 1: So two point two point difference. Um, you've had to

452
00:26:21,480 --> 00:26:29,640
Speaker 1: make gotten significant adjustments from bookmakers. Yeah, you know so,

453
00:26:30,640 --> 00:26:33,480
Speaker 1: as much as I just touted how good San Francisco

454
00:26:33,680 --> 00:26:37,280
Speaker 1: is and a well well balanced team, Uh, I think

455
00:26:37,320 --> 00:26:40,359
Speaker 1: the value here is probably still on the Rams. We've

456
00:26:40,400 --> 00:26:44,880
Speaker 1: we've we've adjusted the number down. We're actually slightly heavier

457
00:26:44,920 --> 00:26:47,600
Speaker 1: on the Niners in terms of ticket accounts. So but

458
00:26:47,680 --> 00:26:51,000
Speaker 1: it's early yet, it's not overwhelming, and I expect this

459
00:26:51,119 --> 00:26:55,119
Speaker 1: to to change a little bit. But the adjustment has

460
00:26:55,160 --> 00:26:59,040
Speaker 1: already been made both on the on the Niners and

461
00:26:59,040 --> 00:27:02,719
Speaker 1: and and the Rams. I think this I think it's

462
00:27:02,760 --> 00:27:05,160
Speaker 1: a little low, and I would probably favor the Rams

463
00:27:05,160 --> 00:27:08,680
Speaker 1: in this spot. You know, you you look back at

464
00:27:08,720 --> 00:27:13,880
Speaker 1: some of the teams ers. You know, they beat the Bengals, Uh,

465
00:27:13,920 --> 00:27:17,399
Speaker 1: they beat the Browns. Uh. They beat the Buccaneers the

466
00:27:17,480 --> 00:27:20,400
Speaker 1: first game of the season with I think five interceptions

467
00:27:20,440 --> 00:27:24,080
Speaker 1: from from Jameis Winston. So yeah, there are a lot

468
00:27:24,119 --> 00:27:29,160
Speaker 1: better than people expect. But are they good enough to

469
00:27:29,200 --> 00:27:32,920
Speaker 1: go on the road and beat the Rams? So? Um,

470
00:27:33,280 --> 00:27:35,879
Speaker 1: I still favor the Rams in this one. I think

471
00:27:35,960 --> 00:27:38,320
Speaker 1: I do too. I think the three and a half

472
00:27:38,359 --> 00:27:40,600
Speaker 1: is high, and I wish that I didn't have to

473
00:27:40,600 --> 00:27:45,479
Speaker 1: pay the hook. Maybe i'd buy half a point if

474
00:27:45,520 --> 00:27:47,080
Speaker 1: it was spinnus three. What would you make it at

475
00:27:47,160 --> 00:27:52,960
Speaker 1: minus three months twenty minus three minus minus three months.

476
00:27:55,200 --> 00:28:01,400
Speaker 1: But I I am a bookmaker. Yeah, you're getting good

477
00:28:04,640 --> 00:28:09,919
Speaker 1: it's like unbelievable how good I'm getting at this. You

478
00:28:09,920 --> 00:28:12,160
Speaker 1: should let me. You should let me come in one

479
00:28:12,200 --> 00:28:15,960
Speaker 1: week and just make all the lines and post them.

480
00:28:15,960 --> 00:28:19,040
Speaker 1: That would be interesting if you actually had the courage

481
00:28:19,400 --> 00:28:22,639
Speaker 1: like to let me come in, make every number and

482
00:28:22,640 --> 00:28:24,760
Speaker 1: then you post it and just see what happens, because

483
00:28:24,760 --> 00:28:27,760
Speaker 1: I'd probably give you a better I'd probably give you

484
00:28:27,840 --> 00:28:32,720
Speaker 1: a better like combination of wise guy and public perception

485
00:28:33,200 --> 00:28:35,719
Speaker 1: than even your own consultants and your team can do.

486
00:28:36,920 --> 00:28:39,480
Speaker 1: That would be in That would be interesting. Maybe maybe

487
00:28:39,600 --> 00:28:41,680
Speaker 1: like on my last day of work, when I'm about

488
00:28:41,680 --> 00:28:44,560
Speaker 1: ready to retire, I'll give it a shot this way

489
00:28:44,560 --> 00:28:48,320
Speaker 1: that there will be no repercussions. Jimmy Kimmel, Uh, you

490
00:28:48,360 --> 00:28:51,320
Speaker 1: know Howard Stern. Howard Stern was in l A this

491
00:28:51,360 --> 00:28:54,280
Speaker 1: week and he had Jimmy kimmelan, and Jimmy Kimmel told

492
00:28:54,280 --> 00:28:57,680
Speaker 1: the story about how he was invited on Bill gates

493
00:28:57,800 --> 00:29:00,440
Speaker 1: Is last day of work, Bill gates Is last day

494
00:29:00,440 --> 00:29:02,800
Speaker 1: at work. He was invited to give a to do

495
00:29:02,840 --> 00:29:05,640
Speaker 1: a roast. Wasn't a toast, it was a roast of

496
00:29:05,680 --> 00:29:10,080
Speaker 1: Bill Gates, and apparently Bill Gates didn't understand what the

497
00:29:10,160 --> 00:29:12,320
Speaker 1: roast was because he had signed off on this. So

498
00:29:12,440 --> 00:29:16,520
Speaker 1: Jimmy Kimmel went in roast ready and was just ripping

499
00:29:16,560 --> 00:29:19,920
Speaker 1: the guy to shreds. And when it was over, like

500
00:29:20,040 --> 00:29:22,640
Speaker 1: it was so clear that Bill Gates did not enjoy

501
00:29:22,680 --> 00:29:25,520
Speaker 1: it and like was angry about it, and that nobody

502
00:29:25,560 --> 00:29:28,200
Speaker 1: was laughing about it, and Jimmy was pissed because he bombed.

503
00:29:28,680 --> 00:29:32,160
Speaker 1: I feel like, on your last day, you have me

504
00:29:32,240 --> 00:29:35,240
Speaker 1: come in and like the chips fall, with the chips fall,

505
00:29:35,280 --> 00:29:39,160
Speaker 1: you know what I'm saying. Yeah, that's what's gonna happen.

506
00:29:39,280 --> 00:29:41,400
Speaker 1: Like I said, no repercussions. You could do whatever you

507
00:29:41,480 --> 00:29:44,000
Speaker 1: want on your last day at work, exactly. That's all

508
00:29:44,000 --> 00:29:46,880
Speaker 1: that's gonna happen. All right, here we go. I got

509
00:29:47,360 --> 00:29:51,120
Speaker 1: the Atlanta Falcons, my least favorite team, visiting the Arizona Cardinals,

510
00:29:51,440 --> 00:29:56,520
Speaker 1: one of my favorite teams. Yeah, this was really a

511
00:29:56,520 --> 00:29:58,920
Speaker 1: tough line to make. I think. I think honestly, we

512
00:29:58,960 --> 00:30:01,920
Speaker 1: could have went minus two on either team and not

513
00:30:02,000 --> 00:30:08,520
Speaker 1: gotten much action. Uh so we're still we're still minus

514
00:30:08,560 --> 00:30:11,640
Speaker 1: two on on Atlanta. So we have Atlanta obviously rated

515
00:30:11,680 --> 00:30:15,880
Speaker 1: higher than than Arizona, even though Arizona's UH showed him

516
00:30:15,920 --> 00:30:19,959
Speaker 1: a lot more signs of life than Atlanta has. UM,

517
00:30:20,120 --> 00:30:24,200
Speaker 1: it's just that slow movement of adjusting lines week after week.

518
00:30:24,800 --> 00:30:28,120
Speaker 1: So I will say we're lower than some other places

519
00:30:28,120 --> 00:30:29,960
Speaker 1: in town that have Atlanta as high as two and

520
00:30:30,000 --> 00:30:32,960
Speaker 1: a half. UM. Not that it makes a big difference

521
00:30:33,000 --> 00:30:34,720
Speaker 1: to two and a half, but not a lot of

522
00:30:34,760 --> 00:30:37,440
Speaker 1: money on this. We actually have more tickets on Atlanta

523
00:30:37,480 --> 00:30:44,040
Speaker 1: than we do on the Cardinals right now. M this

524
00:30:44,120 --> 00:30:46,760
Speaker 1: is a tough one. This is so short that I

525
00:30:46,760 --> 00:30:48,680
Speaker 1: almost feel like you actually do have to play the

526
00:30:48,680 --> 00:30:52,280
Speaker 1: money line in this game, you know what I mean?

527
00:30:52,320 --> 00:30:57,520
Speaker 1: In Atlanta, I probably play Arizona. No, you don't play

528
00:30:57,600 --> 00:31:00,480
Speaker 1: You've never played Atlanta. Well, you know what though, Like

529
00:31:00,520 --> 00:31:02,560
Speaker 1: this does feel like a spot where you play Atlanta.

530
00:31:03,000 --> 00:31:06,000
Speaker 1: Like Arizona is a really bad team, Like in spite

531
00:31:06,000 --> 00:31:07,960
Speaker 1: of what they did this past week, they played a

532
00:31:07,960 --> 00:31:12,000
Speaker 1: team that just might be worse. But like Atlanta. Still,

533
00:31:12,680 --> 00:31:14,680
Speaker 1: you know, I don't think they're very well coached, and

534
00:31:14,680 --> 00:31:16,680
Speaker 1: I think they're suffering, but I don't think like their

535
00:31:16,680 --> 00:31:20,520
Speaker 1: talent level is as bad as Arizona's talent level. UM.

536
00:31:20,760 --> 00:31:24,120
Speaker 1: No real strong opinion on this game. Dallas at the

537
00:31:24,160 --> 00:31:26,920
Speaker 1: New York Jets. The Cowboys are ten point favorites. But listen,

538
00:31:26,920 --> 00:31:30,560
Speaker 1: the Cowboys are starting to show a little bit of

539
00:31:30,560 --> 00:31:35,320
Speaker 1: frailty um, and like what I don't here's my take

540
00:31:36,880 --> 00:31:40,120
Speaker 1: as someone who is very invested in the Cowboys this year. Uh,

541
00:31:40,120 --> 00:31:43,960
Speaker 1: in a futures market perspective, I think this is a

542
00:31:44,000 --> 00:31:45,719
Speaker 1: team that just hasn't put it all together in a

543
00:31:45,720 --> 00:31:48,640
Speaker 1: single game yet. Like, in every single game they've played,

544
00:31:49,080 --> 00:31:53,200
Speaker 1: they've had like spurts um and in most cases they've

545
00:31:53,200 --> 00:31:55,760
Speaker 1: been able to get away with that, but against the

546
00:31:55,840 --> 00:31:59,480
Speaker 1: Saints and the Packers they have not, and so they

547
00:31:59,520 --> 00:32:01,680
Speaker 1: just haven't been consistent. So I think they're worthy of

548
00:32:01,720 --> 00:32:07,000
Speaker 1: being ten point favorites over the Jets. Absolutely, this team's dogs. Yeah,

549
00:32:07,080 --> 00:32:10,560
Speaker 1: it surprised me a little bit the performance against the Packers.

550
00:32:10,600 --> 00:32:13,280
Speaker 1: It didn't surprise me the loss against New Orleans. That

551
00:32:13,360 --> 00:32:15,680
Speaker 1: was a great spot, uh for the Saints, but I

552
00:32:16,360 --> 00:32:19,240
Speaker 1: think it did did surprise me a little bit against

553
00:32:19,240 --> 00:32:23,720
Speaker 1: the Packers. Uh. We well, we have them clearly so much,

554
00:32:23,960 --> 00:32:27,000
Speaker 1: uh as one of the you know, the top top

555
00:32:27,040 --> 00:32:30,120
Speaker 1: five or ten teams you know in the league, and

556
00:32:30,400 --> 00:32:33,800
Speaker 1: they kept steadily rising before those last couple of games.

557
00:32:33,840 --> 00:32:36,360
Speaker 1: But you know they're going up against the Jets team

558
00:32:36,400 --> 00:32:39,000
Speaker 1: that can't move the ball. And but we are seeing

559
00:32:39,040 --> 00:32:42,440
Speaker 1: some money on the Jets because they uh, we may

560
00:32:42,480 --> 00:32:44,960
Speaker 1: see Sam Donald back and not that that's going to

561
00:32:45,040 --> 00:32:49,240
Speaker 1: make a great difference to this Jets offense, but uh,

562
00:32:49,480 --> 00:32:51,880
Speaker 1: you know it clearly is an upgrade and and he's

563
00:32:51,880 --> 00:32:55,200
Speaker 1: probably worth at least two points. So we've seen this

564
00:32:55,280 --> 00:32:57,440
Speaker 1: line as high as ten and as low as seven

565
00:32:57,440 --> 00:32:59,240
Speaker 1: and a half. You're gonna see a lot of that

566
00:32:59,320 --> 00:33:02,040
Speaker 1: movement until we know for sure if if Donald is

567
00:33:02,520 --> 00:33:04,800
Speaker 1: in or out. It looks like from where the money's

568
00:33:04,840 --> 00:33:08,680
Speaker 1: coming in that is more probable than than not, so

569
00:33:09,320 --> 00:33:12,360
Speaker 1: probably expect to see Donald. I have seen this line

570
00:33:12,400 --> 00:33:16,760
Speaker 1: move literally as we've been on the phone. Yeah, just

571
00:33:17,080 --> 00:33:19,560
Speaker 1: just a lot of money, and it's mostly Jets right now.

572
00:33:19,600 --> 00:33:23,520
Speaker 1: Early on it was it was Dallas. Uh, and we

573
00:33:23,560 --> 00:33:25,600
Speaker 1: know the part that the parlays are gonna be all

574
00:33:25,640 --> 00:33:27,360
Speaker 1: over Dallas. We know the public is still going to

575
00:33:27,440 --> 00:33:30,479
Speaker 1: be all over Dallas at any number, at nine, at seven,

576
00:33:30,960 --> 00:33:33,160
Speaker 1: they're gonna be They're gonna be on Dallas. So it's

577
00:33:33,160 --> 00:33:35,080
Speaker 1: just where where the sharps are gonna land. And it

578
00:33:35,080 --> 00:33:38,000
Speaker 1: looks like at least early on there there are Jets.

579
00:33:38,680 --> 00:33:41,240
Speaker 1: But and then this next week, and if it comes

580
00:33:41,280 --> 00:33:43,800
Speaker 1: out that that Donald is not playing, you'll see this

581
00:33:43,840 --> 00:33:49,800
Speaker 1: line go right back up. Tennessee visiting Denver boy two

582
00:33:49,840 --> 00:33:51,720
Speaker 1: and a half Denver two and a half. I guess

583
00:33:51,720 --> 00:33:53,760
Speaker 1: in this spot you gotta take the short home favorite.

584
00:33:53,840 --> 00:33:56,280
Speaker 1: Like you know, you're getting two bad teams. You got

585
00:33:56,320 --> 00:33:58,840
Speaker 1: a little bit of an edge with Denver just based

586
00:33:58,840 --> 00:34:01,840
Speaker 1: on the number you take the Bronco I I would,

587
00:34:01,920 --> 00:34:05,080
Speaker 1: and I think we're you know, when we set this,

588
00:34:05,160 --> 00:34:07,120
Speaker 1: we expected that they would lay the two and a half,

589
00:34:07,160 --> 00:34:10,240
Speaker 1: and they are at about a two to one ratio.

590
00:34:11,440 --> 00:34:14,640
Speaker 1: We'll be quick to move this up to three. Um,

591
00:34:15,480 --> 00:34:17,920
Speaker 1: especially being you know, one of the late games. And

592
00:34:17,960 --> 00:34:20,840
Speaker 1: I've always talked about kind of the volatility on the

593
00:34:20,920 --> 00:34:23,319
Speaker 1: late games. At least there's a lot more of them

594
00:34:23,360 --> 00:34:28,319
Speaker 1: this week than than there were last week. But we

595
00:34:28,320 --> 00:34:31,719
Speaker 1: we really liked Denver in that spot last last week.

596
00:34:31,719 --> 00:34:34,520
Speaker 1: I remember talking of going into last week's game oh

597
00:34:34,560 --> 00:34:36,960
Speaker 1: and four, they could have won any one of those

598
00:34:37,000 --> 00:34:39,239
Speaker 1: four games. So it wasn't a real big surprise that

599
00:34:39,280 --> 00:34:42,920
Speaker 1: they beat the Chargers. Um, you know, as a big

600
00:34:43,600 --> 00:34:46,560
Speaker 1: as a big underdog. So I think in this spot

601
00:34:46,640 --> 00:34:51,319
Speaker 1: at home with Tennessee kind of inconsistent as they've been. Um,

602
00:34:51,880 --> 00:34:54,480
Speaker 1: I certainly would favor Denver. And I'm kind of talking

603
00:34:54,480 --> 00:34:56,840
Speaker 1: to myself into go into three as we're on the phone.

604
00:34:57,719 --> 00:35:00,799
Speaker 1: Dinna do it. You're gonna do it. Um, I'm there.

605
00:35:00,800 --> 00:35:03,000
Speaker 1: I'm gonna let him lay the juice. Though you just

606
00:35:03,160 --> 00:35:05,479
Speaker 1: changed it. I just saw you change it. Oh my god,

607
00:35:05,560 --> 00:35:08,760
Speaker 1: this is crazy. Oh minus three plus one hundred. Literally

608
00:35:09,160 --> 00:35:11,400
Speaker 1: you were typing in. I've heard you type it and

609
00:35:11,440 --> 00:35:18,239
Speaker 1: it showed up on my screen. Isn't that great line? Change?

610
00:35:19,760 --> 00:35:22,759
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh on the road visiting the Los Angeles Chargers, which

611
00:35:22,800 --> 00:35:24,799
Speaker 1: really isn't a home game for them. You've got him

612
00:35:24,840 --> 00:35:26,520
Speaker 1: at six and a half. A lot of other places

613
00:35:26,560 --> 00:35:29,520
Speaker 1: haven't met minus seven plus one hundred. You might move

614
00:35:29,520 --> 00:35:33,200
Speaker 1: it while we're on the phone. Fifty fifty money scent

615
00:35:33,280 --> 00:35:35,839
Speaker 1: of the tickets on the Chargers. I don't know, ma'am.

616
00:35:36,200 --> 00:35:39,279
Speaker 1: If I don't have to bet this game, I don't wanna. Well,

617
00:35:39,400 --> 00:35:43,680
Speaker 1: Mason Rudolph is doubtful. Uh so the Steelers are just

618
00:35:43,760 --> 00:35:49,560
Speaker 1: down to Uh Devlin Hodges is there the starting quarterback

619
00:35:49,600 --> 00:35:53,680
Speaker 1: against against the Chargers. Chargers have been disappointing everyone this year.

620
00:35:53,719 --> 00:35:56,640
Speaker 1: They just come off the loss I just mentioned to

621
00:35:56,680 --> 00:36:00,520
Speaker 1: the Denver Um not exactly the high profile game they

622
00:36:00,640 --> 00:36:04,280
Speaker 1: envisioned when they schedule makers put this out there. Um

623
00:36:04,360 --> 00:36:10,160
Speaker 1: so uh, I guess six and a half. I would

624
00:36:10,200 --> 00:36:14,439
Speaker 1: probably lean a little Chargers um, but tough one. It's

625
00:36:14,480 --> 00:36:17,680
Speaker 1: a just two teams that are very disappointing this year.

626
00:36:18,120 --> 00:36:20,280
Speaker 1: Pass It's one of the rare games where the Sunday

627
00:36:20,400 --> 00:36:22,800
Speaker 1: night schedule is not as good as the Monday night schedule.

628
00:36:23,200 --> 00:36:26,120
Speaker 1: Monday night schedule I love because I really like this

629
00:36:26,239 --> 00:36:28,440
Speaker 1: Lions team in spite of their coach. I like this

630
00:36:28,520 --> 00:36:31,440
Speaker 1: Lions team playing the Packers. Packers are four and a

631
00:36:31,480 --> 00:36:36,120
Speaker 1: half point right now, I'm telling you, right now, I

632
00:36:36,160 --> 00:36:37,880
Speaker 1: see what's the way the wise guys are going. I

633
00:36:37,920 --> 00:36:39,960
Speaker 1: know which way I'm going. It's the same way as them.

634
00:36:40,520 --> 00:36:43,720
Speaker 1: Give me the Lions at plus four and a half. Yeah,

635
00:36:43,960 --> 00:36:47,719
Speaker 1: we really so, we we really opened this on the

636
00:36:47,800 --> 00:36:49,879
Speaker 1: high side. We opened the Packers six and a half.

637
00:36:49,920 --> 00:36:54,400
Speaker 1: So we are just absolutely buried on the Lions. We

638
00:36:54,480 --> 00:36:56,319
Speaker 1: went down to four and a half, so two point

639
00:36:56,360 --> 00:36:59,440
Speaker 1: line move. But it's all sharp money that the public

640
00:36:59,480 --> 00:37:02,440
Speaker 1: is still on the Packers at about a two two

641
00:37:02,480 --> 00:37:06,040
Speaker 1: and a half to one ratio so um. Being being

642
00:37:06,080 --> 00:37:08,040
Speaker 1: the Monday night game, we know that the public will

643
00:37:08,080 --> 00:37:10,120
Speaker 1: still come back and lay the favorite on this one.

644
00:37:10,200 --> 00:37:12,960
Speaker 1: But Lions certainly have been great in the role of

645
00:37:13,000 --> 00:37:15,440
Speaker 1: a of a dog this year, at least for us

646
00:37:15,640 --> 00:37:18,279
Speaker 1: in games that we've needed them. So this is a

647
00:37:18,320 --> 00:37:21,040
Speaker 1: good one. I'm actually excited for. I think for the

648
00:37:21,080 --> 00:37:25,000
Speaker 1: first time on a Monday night game, I am too.

649
00:37:25,760 --> 00:37:28,080
Speaker 1: I am going to go big on this Lions team.

650
00:37:28,200 --> 00:37:30,719
Speaker 1: As a matter of fact, I think they're in a

651
00:37:30,719 --> 00:37:32,759
Speaker 1: good spot. I think they've played well. I think they've

652
00:37:32,760 --> 00:37:36,200
Speaker 1: played well this year. I think like that Cardinals game

653
00:37:36,239 --> 00:37:39,000
Speaker 1: to me, actually felt more like a reckoning than uh

654
00:37:39,280 --> 00:37:42,279
Speaker 1: falling apart, and they realize that they're a good team

655
00:37:42,400 --> 00:37:44,880
Speaker 1: and they've shown it, like their defense is really good.

656
00:37:45,640 --> 00:37:48,719
Speaker 1: It just is. They played really well against the Chiefs. Uh.

657
00:37:48,800 --> 00:37:51,719
Speaker 1: They battled hard, their offense was great. Obviously beat up

658
00:37:51,719 --> 00:37:57,239
Speaker 1: on the Eagles. Like, guess what time it is, Let

659
00:37:57,239 --> 00:38:09,160
Speaker 1: me guess, we give a selection. Let's roll the music, Scooch.

660
00:38:09,360 --> 00:38:13,000
Speaker 1: You won last week. You at Houston. I won last week.

661
00:38:13,080 --> 00:38:16,839
Speaker 1: I had Carolina. I am a gracious host. I am

662
00:38:16,880 --> 00:38:18,719
Speaker 1: going to let you go first, because there are so

663
00:38:18,760 --> 00:38:22,120
Speaker 1: many freaking games that I love. There are me too,

664
00:38:22,280 --> 00:38:25,279
Speaker 1: because I I like Cleveland, I like Jacksonville, and I

665
00:38:25,360 --> 00:38:28,920
Speaker 1: even like the Bengals. So but if if there's one

666
00:38:28,960 --> 00:38:35,120
Speaker 1: I probably like more than the other, it's probably Jacksonville. Yeah.

667
00:38:35,120 --> 00:38:37,680
Speaker 1: I do love that game. I love that game. You're

668
00:38:37,719 --> 00:38:41,359
Speaker 1: taking Jacksonville minus one and a half over the New

669
00:38:41,440 --> 00:38:44,560
Speaker 1: Orleans Saints. You know what I'm gonna do. I'm taking Cleveland.

670
00:38:44,680 --> 00:38:48,960
Speaker 1: Give me the Baker Mayfields. Give me the Baker Mayfields.

671
00:38:50,440 --> 00:38:53,040
Speaker 1: It's you know what I'm doing. Give me the give

672
00:38:53,080 --> 00:38:58,839
Speaker 1: me the Baker Mayfields to win, to win. Well, yeah,

673
00:38:59,080 --> 00:39:02,120
Speaker 1: they're They're only game one, so they pretty much after Yeah,

674
00:39:02,120 --> 00:39:08,040
Speaker 1: well listen, I'm don't do not do that. Do not

675
00:39:08,200 --> 00:39:10,759
Speaker 1: do that. By the way, that is uh, one of

676
00:39:10,800 --> 00:39:12,759
Speaker 1: the most beat games on the board so far. I

677
00:39:12,800 --> 00:39:15,520
Speaker 1: see that. Yeah. Uh, second most big game on the

678
00:39:15,520 --> 00:39:19,960
Speaker 1: board that I'm seeing right now after the Rams Niners. Um,

679
00:39:20,160 --> 00:39:23,600
Speaker 1: don't do that, don't make it. Don't make me look bad, Scooch.

680
00:39:23,760 --> 00:39:29,120
Speaker 1: I'm taking big Baker Mayfield to win. All right, brother,

681
00:39:29,520 --> 00:39:31,960
Speaker 1: that's our show. We gotta wait, we gotta that's that's

682
00:39:31,960 --> 00:39:34,239
Speaker 1: our show for you and me. We still got Danren

683
00:39:34,239 --> 00:39:36,200
Speaker 1: Revel and Simon Hunter coming on and we're gonna talk

684
00:39:36,200 --> 00:39:40,239
Speaker 1: about our Westgate Las Vegas Super Contest picks. We went

685
00:39:40,239 --> 00:39:43,320
Speaker 1: four one last week. We're sixteen and nine, But first

686
00:39:44,200 --> 00:39:47,040
Speaker 1: we gotta do a read. We got a big new

687
00:39:47,160 --> 00:39:50,080
Speaker 1: sponsor coming up and I'm super excited, and then we'll

688
00:39:50,080 --> 00:39:53,360
Speaker 1: be back with Darren Revel, Simon Hunter and our Westgate picks.

689
00:39:55,080 --> 00:39:57,480
Speaker 1: All right, we are back, as promise. I've got Darren

690
00:39:57,560 --> 00:39:59,239
Speaker 1: Revel and in a few minutes we're gonna bring on

691
00:39:59,320 --> 00:40:04,239
Speaker 1: Simon Hunter, a professional betting advisor who so far has

692
00:40:04,239 --> 00:40:06,800
Speaker 1: guided Darren and I to a sixteen and nine record

693
00:40:06,880 --> 00:40:13,080
Speaker 1: in our quest to win one point five million dollars um,

694
00:40:13,239 --> 00:40:16,000
Speaker 1: which I'm feeling really good about right now. I feel

695
00:40:16,000 --> 00:40:19,439
Speaker 1: like the conversations we've learned so much. And I thought

696
00:40:19,480 --> 00:40:23,000
Speaker 1: last week Simon gave like one of the greatest betting

697
00:40:23,400 --> 00:40:26,360
Speaker 1: like inside betting tips I've ever heard. And that betting

698
00:40:26,400 --> 00:40:30,880
Speaker 1: tip was when you are betting a underdog that you

699
00:40:30,920 --> 00:40:33,719
Speaker 1: think has a chance to win, normally a short underdog,

700
00:40:34,040 --> 00:40:36,120
Speaker 1: it's always a good idea to put a little bit

701
00:40:36,120 --> 00:40:39,479
Speaker 1: of taste, just a little on the on the money

702
00:40:39,480 --> 00:40:41,080
Speaker 1: line too, because you get a little bit of value

703
00:40:41,080 --> 00:40:44,640
Speaker 1: on that game, and look that tends to pay off

704
00:40:45,600 --> 00:40:48,200
Speaker 1: a fair amount. It happened this past weekend. Just look

705
00:40:48,239 --> 00:40:52,719
Speaker 1: at the Colts, right, Colts were plus eleven. If you

706
00:40:52,800 --> 00:40:54,799
Speaker 1: liked the Colts, put a little bit of taste on

707
00:40:54,800 --> 00:40:57,000
Speaker 1: the money line. You're getting a little bit of value there,

708
00:40:57,280 --> 00:40:59,600
Speaker 1: Dan Ravel, you're back this week. You missed last week

709
00:40:59,640 --> 00:41:05,879
Speaker 1: and we went four and one. Unrelated, spurious correlation. Don't

710
00:41:06,000 --> 00:41:13,040
Speaker 1: use your big Northwestern University wards with me. Unrelated. We're

711
00:41:13,080 --> 00:41:16,240
Speaker 1: good though, I'm hey, I'll take it. I'll take it. Listen.

712
00:41:16,320 --> 00:41:18,160
Speaker 1: At the end of the day, we all win together, right,

713
00:41:18,200 --> 00:41:20,600
Speaker 1: So it doesn't matter, it doesn't matter how much input

714
00:41:20,680 --> 00:41:24,239
Speaker 1: you have. We're all we're all in this together. Did

715
00:41:24,239 --> 00:41:28,839
Speaker 1: you read our draft our Draft Kings story? Uh, don't change,

716
00:41:29,600 --> 00:41:32,520
Speaker 1: don't challenge me? Oh I did? I did? Indeed, why

717
00:41:32,520 --> 00:41:34,440
Speaker 1: don't you tell the Why don't you tell listeners about it?

718
00:41:35,800 --> 00:41:39,279
Speaker 1: So they were going into Indiana DraftKings. Thursday was the

719
00:41:39,280 --> 00:41:42,480
Speaker 1: first day of mobile bedding. They offered an odds boost,

720
00:41:42,520 --> 00:41:45,400
Speaker 1: which has kind of been the tendency to offer something

721
00:41:45,440 --> 00:41:49,160
Speaker 1: a little bit greater than promotional, just to kind of

722
00:41:49,200 --> 00:41:51,600
Speaker 1: what is typically promoted, just to get you know, these

723
00:41:51,640 --> 00:41:54,279
Speaker 1: guys to sign on the first couple of days, they

724
00:41:54,360 --> 00:41:58,160
Speaker 1: did a odds boost from plus four six d Coults

725
00:41:58,200 --> 00:42:02,200
Speaker 1: moneyline too, plus the thousand and thirty eight percent of

726
00:42:02,239 --> 00:42:05,120
Speaker 1: the people that signed up. I decided to go with it.

727
00:42:05,200 --> 00:42:08,840
Speaker 1: And even though it was a max limit of ten dollars,

728
00:42:09,560 --> 00:42:15,040
Speaker 1: Draft Kings lost three thousand. Unbelievable. They're in the betting business,

729
00:42:15,040 --> 00:42:16,879
Speaker 1: my friend. They made a promotion there, new to Town.

730
00:42:16,920 --> 00:42:19,320
Speaker 1: They wanted to say, hey, come join us. It's exactly

731
00:42:19,320 --> 00:42:23,040
Speaker 1: what happens, all right, listen, we gotta we got a

732
00:42:23,080 --> 00:42:27,480
Speaker 1: deep schedule this week. Um, there are so many games

733
00:42:27,560 --> 00:42:30,280
Speaker 1: on the board that I love, and I am walking

734
00:42:30,320 --> 00:42:34,359
Speaker 1: away from any sort of public games. Like there are

735
00:42:34,400 --> 00:42:36,640
Speaker 1: just games on this board right now where I feel

736
00:42:36,680 --> 00:42:39,919
Speaker 1: so good. But go ahead tell me the public games

737
00:42:39,920 --> 00:42:41,960
Speaker 1: that you want to be Well, well, I'm sure you

738
00:42:42,080 --> 00:42:46,239
Speaker 1: expect me to almost fall in love with sixteen and

739
00:42:46,280 --> 00:42:48,319
Speaker 1: a half point favorite in New England, but I am

740
00:42:48,360 --> 00:42:52,760
Speaker 1: not going to do that. Um, I am not tempted

741
00:42:52,840 --> 00:42:55,600
Speaker 1: by the Dolphins. That's a tough one for me. I mean,

742
00:42:55,680 --> 00:43:00,319
Speaker 1: even though can you imagine there there has never in

743
00:43:00,440 --> 00:43:05,239
Speaker 1: the history of the NFL been a home dog for

744
00:43:05,320 --> 00:43:09,640
Speaker 1: a team off of bye against a team that hasn't

745
00:43:09,719 --> 00:43:15,000
Speaker 1: won any games and just fired their coach. That is

746
00:43:15,040 --> 00:43:20,040
Speaker 1: a great That is a great summary. So but I'm

747
00:43:20,040 --> 00:43:22,200
Speaker 1: not taking it. I don't. I'm I feel like the

748
00:43:22,239 --> 00:43:26,560
Speaker 1: Dolphins uh want to lose, and so I think it's

749
00:43:26,640 --> 00:43:32,120
Speaker 1: just bad money anyway. I like Sam Donalds and the

750
00:43:32,200 --> 00:43:39,520
Speaker 1: Jets at plus nine here, um I think uh, I

751
00:43:39,560 --> 00:43:42,239
Speaker 1: think the Jets will be righted a little bit and

752
00:43:42,280 --> 00:43:48,839
Speaker 1: I think they will cover. Um. I all so, so

753
00:43:49,320 --> 00:43:53,000
Speaker 1: I also like I liked how they played last week.

754
00:43:53,600 --> 00:43:57,120
Speaker 1: I like the Cardinals. I just wrote. I just wrote

755
00:43:57,160 --> 00:44:01,400
Speaker 1: what I like. So you you tell me who they're playing? Uh,

756
00:44:01,440 --> 00:44:05,560
Speaker 1: you don't know who the No, I do know who

757
00:44:05,600 --> 00:44:08,040
Speaker 1: they're playing. I just it's on my phone and I'm

758
00:44:08,360 --> 00:44:13,839
Speaker 1: playing Cardinal's card Cardinals plus two and a half. I

759
00:44:13,880 --> 00:44:18,120
Speaker 1: like them. Uh the game that scares me that I'm

760
00:44:18,160 --> 00:44:22,919
Speaker 1: taking And maybe you can talk me off the ledge here,

761
00:44:23,520 --> 00:44:27,120
Speaker 1: but I just think it's such a great value New

762
00:44:27,280 --> 00:44:35,520
Speaker 1: Orleans minus one against Jacksonville. Okay, um. And then I

763
00:44:35,600 --> 00:44:39,759
Speaker 1: like the Bengals at eleven and a half. I think

764
00:44:39,800 --> 00:44:46,680
Speaker 1: it's way too many points. Um, who are they playing Baltimore? Baltimore?

765
00:44:46,719 --> 00:44:49,840
Speaker 1: Too many points, so I like plus eleven and a half,

766
00:44:50,320 --> 00:44:54,560
Speaker 1: and then finally I like the Packers at four minus

767
00:44:54,560 --> 00:44:59,640
Speaker 1: four and a half at home. Okay, let me tell

768
00:44:59,680 --> 00:45:03,280
Speaker 1: you right out, I hate every one of your picks,

769
00:45:03,960 --> 00:45:10,960
Speaker 1: like not just uh, there's not accept except the only

770
00:45:11,000 --> 00:45:16,239
Speaker 1: game where I'm even remotely thinking there's value Bengals plus

771
00:45:16,239 --> 00:45:19,480
Speaker 1: eleven and a half. In fact, not only do I

772
00:45:19,560 --> 00:45:25,640
Speaker 1: hate your picks so much, but Jacksonville playing New Orleans

773
00:45:25,800 --> 00:45:29,479
Speaker 1: and Detroit playing the Packers are two of the picks

774
00:45:29,480 --> 00:45:34,839
Speaker 1: that I would put in my five. Can we get

775
00:45:34,920 --> 00:45:37,600
Speaker 1: rid of the word hate as the holidays are coming up?

776
00:45:39,040 --> 00:45:41,680
Speaker 1: And you know what, that's what my my granma used

777
00:45:41,719 --> 00:45:46,960
Speaker 1: to say. We don't hate, We intensely dislike. He feels

778
00:45:47,200 --> 00:45:54,200
Speaker 1: hate feels mean it feels then um, well, look, I

779
00:45:54,560 --> 00:45:57,879
Speaker 1: just think green Bay like Detroit. Green Bay is coming

780
00:45:57,880 --> 00:46:01,279
Speaker 1: off a massive win against the Cowboys in America's Game

781
00:46:01,280 --> 00:46:04,160
Speaker 1: of the Week against the Cowboys team that everybody was

782
00:46:04,200 --> 00:46:08,719
Speaker 1: incredibly high on. Um and that Cowboys team, if that

783
00:46:08,719 --> 00:46:12,160
Speaker 1: game is five minutes longer, they very might win that game.

784
00:46:12,320 --> 00:46:15,160
Speaker 1: They had a as bad a first half as you

785
00:46:15,200 --> 00:46:20,320
Speaker 1: could possibly have, multiple turnovers, holding penalties on huge, huge

786
00:46:20,360 --> 00:46:22,560
Speaker 1: plays that could have got them in it at any

787
00:46:22,600 --> 00:46:25,560
Speaker 1: point in the first half of that game. The Lions. Meanwhile,

788
00:46:26,040 --> 00:46:30,160
Speaker 1: like they they fell apart against the Cardinals. But I

789
00:46:30,200 --> 00:46:31,560
Speaker 1: think what that game did to them, And I just

790
00:46:31,600 --> 00:46:35,520
Speaker 1: said this to Scooch, like that game actually showed them

791
00:46:35,680 --> 00:46:39,280
Speaker 1: what they rebounded from that game. They got better after

792
00:46:39,320 --> 00:46:41,680
Speaker 1: that game, Okay, and then all of a sudden, like

793
00:46:42,080 --> 00:46:44,719
Speaker 1: they win the next game, they play the Chiefs, and

794
00:46:45,360 --> 00:46:47,840
Speaker 1: they don't play badly. In fact, they've got the Chiefs

795
00:46:47,840 --> 00:46:50,400
Speaker 1: on the ropes and they actually sort of a precursor

796
00:46:50,440 --> 00:46:53,160
Speaker 1: to what the Chiefs became in the following week. Meanwhile,

797
00:46:53,239 --> 00:46:55,960
Speaker 1: then they go into Philly and they dominate against Philly,

798
00:46:56,000 --> 00:46:59,080
Speaker 1: like they destroyed that Philly team. So I think that

799
00:46:59,120 --> 00:47:02,640
Speaker 1: you're getting a lot of public respect right now for

800
00:47:02,680 --> 00:47:05,439
Speaker 1: the Packers, and I think the Lions are a much

801
00:47:05,480 --> 00:47:09,480
Speaker 1: better team, uh than people are giving them credit for

802
00:47:09,600 --> 00:47:12,680
Speaker 1: right now. Okay, well, if you want that, I'll take that,

803
00:47:14,000 --> 00:47:18,160
Speaker 1: all right. I like Detroit. I like Detroit plus four

804
00:47:18,200 --> 00:47:23,399
Speaker 1: and a half um Jacksonville. Same same same theory, Like

805
00:47:23,560 --> 00:47:25,319
Speaker 1: look in New Orleans. Look at what New Orleans is

806
00:47:25,320 --> 00:47:27,799
Speaker 1: coming off of. Right, Like they beat up on the

807
00:47:27,840 --> 00:47:30,600
Speaker 1: Cowboys and then next week. They come back and Teddy

808
00:47:30,600 --> 00:47:35,000
Speaker 1: Bridgewater like plays with the full playbook and he looks

809
00:47:35,080 --> 00:47:38,799
Speaker 1: really good and they win a game that they were

810
00:47:38,840 --> 00:47:42,680
Speaker 1: favored to win. But everybody thought the right side was

811
00:47:42,719 --> 00:47:45,000
Speaker 1: the Bucks in this game, right, there's not a single

812
00:47:45,040 --> 00:47:48,200
Speaker 1: wise guy all over the Action Network Stucky, you know,

813
00:47:48,400 --> 00:47:50,600
Speaker 1: one of the smartest guys at the Action Network. He

814
00:47:50,719 --> 00:47:52,719
Speaker 1: was all over the Bucks in every single way. I

815
00:47:52,760 --> 00:47:55,520
Speaker 1: remember saying in the podcast last week, why is everyone

816
00:47:55,560 --> 00:47:57,160
Speaker 1: in the Bucks? I don't get it, Like this New

817
00:47:57,239 --> 00:47:59,719
Speaker 1: Orleans team is just a good team. They're one of

818
00:47:59,719 --> 00:48:03,200
Speaker 1: the best our teams and so um, I don't like

819
00:48:03,239 --> 00:48:05,160
Speaker 1: where the numbers are right now. I feel like there's

820
00:48:05,200 --> 00:48:08,120
Speaker 1: too much money, too many tickets. Public is really back

821
00:48:08,120 --> 00:48:11,239
Speaker 1: in New Orleans. Anytime I've got a team that is

822
00:48:11,320 --> 00:48:15,160
Speaker 1: overvalued getting a ton of ton of support from the public,

823
00:48:15,560 --> 00:48:17,560
Speaker 1: I am going to want to bet the other side,

824
00:48:17,680 --> 00:48:20,440
Speaker 1: especially if it's a home dog, which is what Jacksonville is.

825
00:48:20,920 --> 00:48:22,640
Speaker 1: So do you think do you do you think by

826
00:48:22,719 --> 00:48:24,440
Speaker 1: the time we picked this thing it will be to

827
00:48:24,960 --> 00:48:29,799
Speaker 1: two and a half. It's entirely possible. I will make

828
00:48:29,840 --> 00:48:33,160
Speaker 1: a condition on that because I do not like I

829
00:48:33,200 --> 00:48:36,440
Speaker 1: think the number here is bad I want. I wanted

830
00:48:36,520 --> 00:48:44,560
Speaker 1: to be possible for the Saints to win and still cover. Additional,

831
00:48:45,000 --> 00:48:48,399
Speaker 1: we can set it conditional. What Yeah, we can set

832
00:48:48,480 --> 00:48:52,640
Speaker 1: conditions the Saints to win and Jacksonville is still cover

833
00:48:53,000 --> 00:48:56,399
Speaker 1: because Jacksonville is your pick. Sorry. Here are my other

834
00:48:56,400 --> 00:48:57,640
Speaker 1: games here on my other games, and then I want

835
00:48:57,640 --> 00:49:01,600
Speaker 1: to bring Simon into uh to um be the judge

836
00:49:01,600 --> 00:49:05,919
Speaker 1: and jury here. I like, I'll take Cincinnati plus eleven

837
00:49:05,960 --> 00:49:07,919
Speaker 1: and a half. Um. I think that's a good one.

838
00:49:08,239 --> 00:49:13,200
Speaker 1: And I also love I love Cleveland. I love Cleveland.

839
00:49:14,320 --> 00:49:16,839
Speaker 1: Cleveland as a by the following week, I think they

840
00:49:16,840 --> 00:49:20,000
Speaker 1: we're looking ahead of this game last night. It's Tuesday afternoon.

841
00:49:20,000 --> 00:49:21,960
Speaker 1: I'm talking about Monday night against Then what is the

842
00:49:22,000 --> 00:49:25,040
Speaker 1: line on Cleveland? Seattle is a one point favorite maybe

843
00:49:25,080 --> 00:49:28,319
Speaker 1: pick in some places, but I just feel like this

844
00:49:28,400 --> 00:49:30,879
Speaker 1: is one of those opposite ends of the spectrum. You're

845
00:49:30,920 --> 00:49:36,160
Speaker 1: getting way over valued in in Seattle and undervalued in Cleveland.

846
00:49:36,280 --> 00:49:40,279
Speaker 1: So give me uh. I still don't think Cleveland is undervalued.

847
00:49:40,320 --> 00:49:45,520
Speaker 1: I still think they're maybe maybe maybe you know, Monday night,

848
00:49:45,600 --> 00:49:48,279
Speaker 1: did it? Eight percent of the money is coming in

849
00:49:48,560 --> 00:49:52,480
Speaker 1: on Cleveland right now. The wise guys have on Seattle.

850
00:49:52,520 --> 00:49:55,719
Speaker 1: The wise Guy's been betting Cleveland. Um, we're gonna reach

851
00:49:55,760 --> 00:49:58,320
Speaker 1: the twenty world where you've got a short home dog

852
00:49:59,120 --> 00:50:01,719
Speaker 1: that is only getting percent of the money. That's almost

853
00:50:01,760 --> 00:50:05,760
Speaker 1: an automatic take. I just don't like the whole idea

854
00:50:05,880 --> 00:50:09,960
Speaker 1: of a sharp bet being what someone else like going

855
00:50:10,040 --> 00:50:12,759
Speaker 1: against the public just to go against the publish Like.

856
00:50:13,360 --> 00:50:15,640
Speaker 1: That's not a data point for me. But I guess

857
00:50:15,640 --> 00:50:19,839
Speaker 1: I'm learning. Uh, well, well, let's Simon weigh in on that.

858
00:50:20,120 --> 00:50:23,120
Speaker 1: The the last game that I like Kansas City? Uh

859
00:50:23,520 --> 00:50:25,560
Speaker 1: as a five and a half point for every against

860
00:50:25,600 --> 00:50:30,279
Speaker 1: Houston again the same philosophy. People are down on them,

861
00:50:30,800 --> 00:50:35,479
Speaker 1: You want to bring them up? Yep, Simon, you're there.

862
00:50:39,960 --> 00:50:45,240
Speaker 1: And now a word from a wise guy with Simon Hunter.

863
00:50:50,400 --> 00:50:54,480
Speaker 1: How's it going? God, Hey, buddy, how are you? Good? Man?

864
00:50:54,600 --> 00:50:59,560
Speaker 1: Is Darren here today? Darren is here? Wow? Damn? We

865
00:50:59,640 --> 00:51:03,359
Speaker 1: really still last week going four and one? I know,

866
00:51:03,600 --> 00:51:08,040
Speaker 1: I we I already got the ribbing. I was really

867
00:51:08,120 --> 00:51:09,959
Speaker 1: upset we didn't get your pick. Man. Next time you

868
00:51:09,960 --> 00:51:11,520
Speaker 1: you're not there, you gotta send him picks. I like

869
00:51:11,560 --> 00:51:16,719
Speaker 1: to hear what the public Simmons. You guys, here's what

870
00:51:16,800 --> 00:51:19,279
Speaker 1: I want to say. I want to lay out I

871
00:51:19,320 --> 00:51:21,719
Speaker 1: want to lay out what I've decided on so far,

872
00:51:22,440 --> 00:51:26,760
Speaker 1: and then I want to give you some notes from Darren,

873
00:51:27,520 --> 00:51:32,800
Speaker 1: and then you tell us where we are right, where

874
00:51:32,840 --> 00:51:36,799
Speaker 1: we are wrong. Okay, all right, we can do that,

875
00:51:37,120 --> 00:51:41,080
Speaker 1: all right. We have settled so far Detroit plus four

876
00:51:41,120 --> 00:51:47,320
Speaker 1: and a half. Okay, since plus since he plus eleven

877
00:51:47,360 --> 00:51:51,360
Speaker 1: and a half. Um, those are the two we've settled on.

878
00:51:52,160 --> 00:51:55,440
Speaker 1: We don't five and a half, and we agree on

879
00:51:55,520 --> 00:52:00,160
Speaker 1: Kansas City at minus five and a half. Those are

880
00:52:00,160 --> 00:52:03,480
Speaker 1: the three we like so far. So two for you

881
00:52:03,520 --> 00:52:06,359
Speaker 1: both agreed on. We both agree on those picks. I

882
00:52:06,360 --> 00:52:09,560
Speaker 1: had to bully I had to bully Darren into Detroit

883
00:52:09,800 --> 00:52:17,960
Speaker 1: and semi convince him of Kansas City. I like, uh,

884
00:52:18,040 --> 00:52:21,240
Speaker 1: I like you guys are going with these dogs. Um.

885
00:52:21,440 --> 00:52:25,120
Speaker 1: We talked about it last week, how we switched out.

886
00:52:25,200 --> 00:52:27,440
Speaker 1: We end up switching out the Colts just because we're

887
00:52:27,440 --> 00:52:29,160
Speaker 1: sending these picks in early, so we didn't have the

888
00:52:29,239 --> 00:52:33,279
Speaker 1: full in your report. Um, but we were dead on

889
00:52:33,360 --> 00:52:37,200
Speaker 1: with that Denver dog in Indianapolis dog. So you guys

890
00:52:37,200 --> 00:52:41,239
Speaker 1: two dogs. You really like her since in Detroit. I

891
00:52:41,320 --> 00:52:45,840
Speaker 1: like that Detroit idea because they're coming off of bye. Um.

892
00:52:45,880 --> 00:52:48,080
Speaker 1: So I mean a Monday night coming off of bye

893
00:52:48,200 --> 00:52:52,040
Speaker 1: super extended week. Um Man, now I'm just starting to

894
00:52:52,040 --> 00:52:54,279
Speaker 1: think about all these times staffords actually let me down

895
00:52:54,360 --> 00:52:57,879
Speaker 1: the spot. But the line, the lines have been playing

896
00:52:58,080 --> 00:53:01,279
Speaker 1: a really good team and I like that. I like

897
00:53:01,400 --> 00:53:04,320
Speaker 1: you guys around Fincy. That's definitely a sharp, sharp public

898
00:53:04,400 --> 00:53:07,600
Speaker 1: number this week, where a lot of people came in

899
00:53:07,640 --> 00:53:09,960
Speaker 1: early as soon as numbers came out on the Ravens,

900
00:53:09,960 --> 00:53:11,520
Speaker 1: and now it's kind of been sitting there at the

901
00:53:11,520 --> 00:53:16,960
Speaker 1: eleven and a half twelve. All right, so in agreement,

902
00:53:17,000 --> 00:53:20,600
Speaker 1: let's just say we're an agreement so far. Uh yeah,

903
00:53:20,719 --> 00:53:22,439
Speaker 1: we can. We can be an agreement on those three

904
00:53:22,440 --> 00:53:26,920
Speaker 1: for right now. Okay, Now, how do you feel about

905
00:53:29,480 --> 00:53:35,280
Speaker 1: Cleveland against Seattle? Which I love? I love the Browns.

906
00:53:35,400 --> 00:53:39,960
Speaker 1: In this spot, I'm probably the right long um professional

907
00:53:40,040 --> 00:53:42,440
Speaker 1: better asked about Cleveland, Like, you know, all the years,

908
00:53:42,440 --> 00:53:45,320
Speaker 1: everyone's like every week, all these sharps coming back on Cleveland.

909
00:53:46,400 --> 00:53:48,280
Speaker 1: I was the guy always doing the other way. I've

910
00:53:48,320 --> 00:53:52,480
Speaker 1: been fading Cleveland for fields like five years. Um, this

911
00:53:52,560 --> 00:53:56,600
Speaker 1: is like one of those classic spots where they were

912
00:53:56,600 --> 00:54:00,120
Speaker 1: absolutely terrible on Monday. Seattle is coming off at to

913
00:54:00,239 --> 00:54:04,040
Speaker 1: rest and everybody's I mean, I don't even know what

914
00:54:04,080 --> 00:54:06,120
Speaker 1: the numbers are, but I can guarantee that the public

915
00:54:06,200 --> 00:54:09,080
Speaker 1: is going to be all over that Seattle numbers. It

916
00:54:09,120 --> 00:54:14,360
Speaker 1: opened at I think it opened Cleveland minus one um

917
00:54:14,920 --> 00:54:17,000
Speaker 1: or two, and now it's up to I think they're

918
00:54:17,000 --> 00:54:20,120
Speaker 1: plus one, which is I mean, by the rule book,

919
00:54:20,160 --> 00:54:22,239
Speaker 1: if it's if they're a short home dog and they're

920
00:54:22,239 --> 00:54:25,920
Speaker 1: getting less than three of the bet, I'll be on

921
00:54:26,000 --> 00:54:27,319
Speaker 1: that number. But I don't know if that's a good

922
00:54:27,360 --> 00:54:32,239
Speaker 1: super contest get number. Here is a problem I have

923
00:54:32,360 --> 00:54:39,880
Speaker 1: with Chad. It's like, Okay, it's like we just watched

924
00:54:39,960 --> 00:54:43,800
Speaker 1: a horrific game by them, and he likes them because

925
00:54:43,920 --> 00:54:48,319
Speaker 1: the public likes the other team. I don't understand the

926
00:54:48,640 --> 00:54:54,040
Speaker 1: sharp just to be sharp, just to be different without evidence.

927
00:54:54,280 --> 00:55:00,160
Speaker 1: I don't love those plays. Well, yeah, the evidences you've

928
00:55:00,239 --> 00:55:02,279
Speaker 1: been long term. So that's why he likes that play,

929
00:55:02,320 --> 00:55:05,480
Speaker 1: because that's a long term winning play. Like if I

930
00:55:05,480 --> 00:55:07,920
Speaker 1: would have told you last week that, like I I

931
00:55:08,000 --> 00:55:10,080
Speaker 1: told on the podcast, I always put whenever I take

932
00:55:10,120 --> 00:55:11,919
Speaker 1: a dog, I always put some on the money line.

933
00:55:12,080 --> 00:55:13,560
Speaker 1: I was gonna take you. I was gonna tell the

934
00:55:13,680 --> 00:55:15,760
Speaker 1: take the Colts first half money line in the game's

935
00:55:15,840 --> 00:55:18,640
Speaker 1: money line. You have said that's stupid. So that's why

936
00:55:18,880 --> 00:55:21,879
Speaker 1: it's these sharps just look for percentages. So he's playing

937
00:55:21,880 --> 00:55:25,160
Speaker 1: the percentages here, is saying that the math works out

938
00:55:25,200 --> 00:55:27,800
Speaker 1: that Cleveland, just going by the numbers and the books,

939
00:55:28,719 --> 00:55:31,800
Speaker 1: they probably have over sixty chance of winning and covering

940
00:55:31,840 --> 00:55:35,360
Speaker 1: this game. So the public is gonna keep driving this

941
00:55:35,440 --> 00:55:37,319
Speaker 1: number up. I mean we might be able to get it.

942
00:55:37,640 --> 00:55:39,440
Speaker 1: We might be able to get Cleveland. Okay, I undertand

943
00:55:39,440 --> 00:55:42,040
Speaker 1: I understand what you're saying. I understand what you're saying

944
00:55:42,040 --> 00:55:45,839
Speaker 1: now that that when everything shakes out because of how

945
00:55:45,960 --> 00:55:49,640
Speaker 1: people bet you have, you actually do have a better

946
00:55:49,800 --> 00:55:52,880
Speaker 1: chance when you when the line comes out because of

947
00:55:52,920 --> 00:55:55,680
Speaker 1: how the public has pushed it. Yeah, like the style

948
00:55:55,760 --> 00:55:58,160
Speaker 1: he's talking about as a certain style would like people

949
00:55:58,160 --> 00:56:00,520
Speaker 1: are betting against the public and they're playing the first scentages,

950
00:56:01,040 --> 00:56:04,799
Speaker 1: so they're playing off trends of those percentages. So it's

951
00:56:04,840 --> 00:56:07,440
Speaker 1: a smart percentage play, but it might it might not

952
00:56:07,480 --> 00:56:10,239
Speaker 1: be a smart play for a super contest. That is

953
00:56:10,320 --> 00:56:13,399
Speaker 1: a great that is a phenomenal point that actually might

954
00:56:13,400 --> 00:56:15,920
Speaker 1: have been in many years what's killed me in the

955
00:56:15,920 --> 00:56:18,960
Speaker 1: super contest? And you've pointed this out a couple of times, like,

956
00:56:19,040 --> 00:56:21,600
Speaker 1: I will play what I think the sharp trend plays

957
00:56:21,640 --> 00:56:25,000
Speaker 1: are not necessarily play what a smart super conscious play is.

958
00:56:25,400 --> 00:56:29,360
Speaker 1: So in deference to your logic and in deference to

959
00:56:29,480 --> 00:56:34,680
Speaker 1: Darren not liking it, we're taking Cleveland off the board. Um,

960
00:56:34,840 --> 00:56:37,000
Speaker 1: let me throw another one at you. I'm not ready

961
00:56:37,000 --> 00:56:39,080
Speaker 1: to throw any of the other picks that Darren through

962
00:56:39,080 --> 00:56:42,839
Speaker 1: at through it. Um, I will know what. I'll throw

963
00:56:42,880 --> 00:56:44,600
Speaker 1: you one. Because he and I are on opposite sides

964
00:56:44,640 --> 00:56:52,480
Speaker 1: of this. He likes New Orleans. I like Jacksonville, right, Um,

965
00:56:52,520 --> 00:56:57,360
Speaker 1: I could see why he likes New Orleans in this spot. Um,

966
00:56:57,480 --> 00:57:00,080
Speaker 1: I think I saw some crazy stat about ted You

967
00:57:00,400 --> 00:57:06,160
Speaker 1: Teddy Bridgewater October He's never knocked covering October. Um, but

968
00:57:06,280 --> 00:57:10,440
Speaker 1: this is a this is another classic. I mean, I

969
00:57:10,640 --> 00:57:14,360
Speaker 1: actually don't mind this one for the super Contest as much. Um,

970
00:57:14,600 --> 00:57:17,960
Speaker 1: the Jags is just the easiest player. I mean, if

971
00:57:17,960 --> 00:57:19,680
Speaker 1: you're not playing the Jags, don't play this game at all,

972
00:57:19,720 --> 00:57:23,560
Speaker 1: You're you're you're betting on Teddy Bridgewater coming off to

973
00:57:23,760 --> 00:57:27,000
Speaker 1: Home Winds with crowd his in the Superdome. Now the

974
00:57:27,000 --> 00:57:30,280
Speaker 1: man is going on the road to hot Florida to

975
00:57:30,280 --> 00:57:32,080
Speaker 1: the Jaguars team who just is coming off with a

976
00:57:32,120 --> 00:57:34,960
Speaker 1: bad loss. So that's that's one of those where if

977
00:57:34,960 --> 00:57:37,120
Speaker 1: you're not if you're not playing the Jaguars, don't bet

978
00:57:37,160 --> 00:57:41,600
Speaker 1: that one. Yeah, but you're not talking about Minshew magic

979
00:57:41,760 --> 00:57:46,120
Speaker 1: running out. I mean again, Um, I mean it didn't.

980
00:57:46,800 --> 00:57:48,880
Speaker 1: I I honestly saw a lot of flight out of

981
00:57:48,960 --> 00:57:52,560
Speaker 1: the Jaguars last week Carolina, Like me and Chad talked

982
00:57:52,560 --> 00:57:54,280
Speaker 1: about that, that was a good trap game where the

983
00:57:54,320 --> 00:57:56,160
Speaker 1: Jaguars should have just laid down. They should have got

984
00:57:56,200 --> 00:57:59,160
Speaker 1: team rolled, and they had a bunch of big plays

985
00:57:59,160 --> 00:58:01,320
Speaker 1: like they had McCafe for you, bust out a huge run.

986
00:58:01,440 --> 00:58:03,480
Speaker 1: Minshew drove him down the field, they scored a touchdown,

987
00:58:03,880 --> 00:58:05,840
Speaker 1: and then I think the next possession he fumbled, they

988
00:58:05,920 --> 00:58:07,280
Speaker 1: took a way back in score, and then he drove

989
00:58:07,280 --> 00:58:09,640
Speaker 1: the field to get him scored. So, I mean, I

990
00:58:09,680 --> 00:58:11,840
Speaker 1: can see you're saying that Minshew Mania might be running

991
00:58:11,880 --> 00:58:13,520
Speaker 1: out here, but he's actually showing me a lot that

992
00:58:13,600 --> 00:58:17,120
Speaker 1: he belongs in the league. He's a he's a player. Yeah,

993
00:58:17,160 --> 00:58:19,800
Speaker 1: like that game they had. You know, I was all

994
00:58:19,800 --> 00:58:23,640
Speaker 1: over Caroline in that game. But if not for you know,

995
00:58:23,680 --> 00:58:28,200
Speaker 1: a couple of choice turnovers, they made a strong run

996
00:58:28,560 --> 00:58:30,440
Speaker 1: at the end and just ran out like they just

997
00:58:30,520 --> 00:58:32,800
Speaker 1: you know, it just didn't happen for him. But yeah,

998
00:58:32,880 --> 00:58:35,040
Speaker 1: that's why I like the Jacks. I like the Jacks

999
00:58:35,080 --> 00:58:38,040
Speaker 1: in this game. But if that makes you nervous, we

1000
00:58:38,040 --> 00:58:39,760
Speaker 1: don't have to put that one in, Darren. If you

1001
00:58:39,760 --> 00:58:42,640
Speaker 1: don't like that one, really, Simon, you get to decide.

1002
00:58:42,680 --> 00:58:45,720
Speaker 1: I don't get to decide. What about my other one?

1003
00:58:45,880 --> 00:58:47,720
Speaker 1: Cha that you want to I want to hear what

1004
00:58:47,920 --> 00:58:52,400
Speaker 1: I want. I like the public Darren, also like you

1005
00:58:52,480 --> 00:58:56,240
Speaker 1: like to laugh, Darren. Also not at all. He likes

1006
00:58:56,280 --> 00:59:00,560
Speaker 1: the Jets plus nine. Wow, very sharp of you, Darren.

1007
00:59:00,640 --> 00:59:04,360
Speaker 1: Is that just because it's your jet? No, I don't

1008
00:59:04,400 --> 00:59:07,320
Speaker 1: do that. That's not a way to win. Um, I

1009
00:59:07,440 --> 00:59:14,560
Speaker 1: just number I think, uh, Sam Donald, you know knows

1010
00:59:14,640 --> 00:59:18,240
Speaker 1: how to to win, even though you know we've been

1011
00:59:18,240 --> 00:59:23,240
Speaker 1: out with the scleen um and I think that he's

1012
00:59:23,360 --> 00:59:28,600
Speaker 1: he's competent and nine is a huge number. That's a

1013
00:59:28,680 --> 00:59:35,240
Speaker 1: huge number. But um, I don't know. I wouldn't I

1014
00:59:35,240 --> 00:59:39,720
Speaker 1: wouldn't go for that because Alice, I mean, they played

1015
00:59:39,760 --> 00:59:42,000
Speaker 1: their worst. I mean I can't believe how bad that

1016
00:59:42,080 --> 00:59:47,560
Speaker 1: first half was, and this is just a bad spot

1017
00:59:47,640 --> 00:59:49,360
Speaker 1: for the Jets. They got a team that's coming and

1018
00:59:49,400 --> 00:59:52,280
Speaker 1: really piste off in the Cowboys. So I mean, I

1019
00:59:52,360 --> 00:59:55,360
Speaker 1: like your head back because this is a no one's

1020
00:59:55,360 --> 00:59:57,840
Speaker 1: gonna be taking the Jet. So that's another too sharp

1021
00:59:58,160 --> 01:00:02,000
Speaker 1: you're doing too sharp on the line for right, Okay,

1022
01:00:02,000 --> 01:00:05,080
Speaker 1: so I'll walk off that. Chad convinced me to walk

1023
01:00:05,080 --> 01:00:07,840
Speaker 1: off Green Bay four and a half. But the other

1024
01:00:07,880 --> 01:00:10,800
Speaker 1: one I do like. I mean, I feel like Kyler

1025
01:00:10,920 --> 01:00:14,880
Speaker 1: Murray is now adjusted and I liked the Cardinals two

1026
01:00:14,920 --> 01:00:25,120
Speaker 1: and a half. Dog Uh, I do I do like

1027
01:00:25,240 --> 01:00:28,680
Speaker 1: that because I mean Atlanta has given up and they're terrible.

1028
01:00:28,800 --> 01:00:32,200
Speaker 1: But you're at the same time you're taking so you're

1029
01:00:32,240 --> 01:00:35,240
Speaker 1: saying you trust him over Matt Ryan. So you don't

1030
01:00:35,280 --> 01:00:36,920
Speaker 1: think Matt Ryan can drive the field the end of

1031
01:00:36,960 --> 01:00:39,560
Speaker 1: the game to beat Arizona. I think they can. So

1032
01:00:40,400 --> 01:00:43,880
Speaker 1: it's a public it's a good public play with Atlanta

1033
01:00:43,960 --> 01:00:47,000
Speaker 1: this week. Um so I will be betting on the Cardinals,

1034
01:00:47,040 --> 01:00:49,600
Speaker 1: but I don't do I see what you're saying about

1035
01:00:49,600 --> 01:00:53,120
Speaker 1: trusting him. But literally Andy Dalton missed Eifford in the

1036
01:00:53,160 --> 01:00:55,280
Speaker 1: end zone. They should have won by four. So that

1037
01:00:55,400 --> 01:00:58,200
Speaker 1: was one of those where we're back in the Cardinals

1038
01:00:58,240 --> 01:01:01,080
Speaker 1: team that didn't deserve a Winum. So that's why the

1039
01:01:01,120 --> 01:01:06,200
Speaker 1: public and the sharps right now all coming in on Atlanta. Yeah,

1040
01:01:06,320 --> 01:01:08,760
Speaker 1: it's not gonna be all right here here, here's the

1041
01:01:08,800 --> 01:01:10,800
Speaker 1: other one. And then, Simon, I want you to like

1042
01:01:11,160 --> 01:01:13,120
Speaker 1: we we've gone over every game almost so I get

1043
01:01:13,160 --> 01:01:16,360
Speaker 1: a sense of what where your where your head is at? Um.

1044
01:01:16,480 --> 01:01:21,040
Speaker 1: Two other games that I like. I like, uh, Minnesota

1045
01:01:21,160 --> 01:01:25,240
Speaker 1: minus three over Philly, great spot. I think Philly still

1046
01:01:25,280 --> 01:01:29,800
Speaker 1: like that pick? You like that pick? Yes, I actually

1047
01:01:29,800 --> 01:01:32,840
Speaker 1: do like that pick. I think everyone's so high on Billy.

1048
01:01:33,120 --> 01:01:35,720
Speaker 1: I think Minnesota looked I think Minnesota looked good, but

1049
01:01:35,760 --> 01:01:40,480
Speaker 1: I think they're really good. I don't know about that,

1050
01:01:40,560 --> 01:01:45,000
Speaker 1: but I just always in my mind Minnesota at home. Yeah,

1051
01:01:45,040 --> 01:01:48,640
Speaker 1: like they're they're really good at home. That defense, with

1052
01:01:48,720 --> 01:01:51,560
Speaker 1: that crowd noise, and they don't ask much of Kirk.

1053
01:01:51,680 --> 01:01:54,000
Speaker 1: Like Kirk has so many weapons around him. He just

1054
01:01:54,160 --> 01:01:57,200
Speaker 1: plays the level they need him to. I like that

1055
01:01:57,320 --> 01:01:59,240
Speaker 1: number a lot. So I got to take that pick

1056
01:01:59,800 --> 01:02:02,880
Speaker 1: my the six for the Vikings. Alright, So let's walk

1057
01:02:02,920 --> 01:02:05,680
Speaker 1: this through then, because we right now we're on Detroit

1058
01:02:05,680 --> 01:02:08,720
Speaker 1: plus four and a half. We're on Jacksonville. We're on

1059
01:02:08,800 --> 01:02:12,080
Speaker 1: Cincinnati plus eleven and a half, Kansas City minus five

1060
01:02:12,080 --> 01:02:15,800
Speaker 1: and a half of Minnesota minus three. Tell us the

1061
01:02:15,840 --> 01:02:18,840
Speaker 1: games that that you would be taking if you were

1062
01:02:18,960 --> 01:02:21,400
Speaker 1: us right now, if not those five games the games

1063
01:02:21,400 --> 01:02:27,160
Speaker 1: were missing that you feel better about. Um, I mean,

1064
01:02:27,200 --> 01:02:28,920
Speaker 1: we're probably gonna do it, but we don't have to

1065
01:02:28,920 --> 01:02:32,040
Speaker 1: do it in ours. Um, we're probably gonna be taking

1066
01:02:32,040 --> 01:02:37,640
Speaker 1: the Patriots on Thursday. And it's it's just one of

1067
01:02:37,680 --> 01:02:41,800
Speaker 1: those where it's like I've seen this too many times

1068
01:02:41,880 --> 01:02:45,200
Speaker 1: where I can see why other people are going to

1069
01:02:45,280 --> 01:02:48,560
Speaker 1: be on the Giants, all their reasoning, everything behind it.

1070
01:02:48,640 --> 01:02:54,520
Speaker 1: But a shortened week, rookie quarterback going to New England. Um,

1071
01:02:54,560 --> 01:02:56,760
Speaker 1: I just see a thirty nothing game. I mean, it's

1072
01:02:56,760 --> 01:03:00,680
Speaker 1: a nice, a nice New England teaser under game. Um,

1073
01:03:00,720 --> 01:03:02,040
Speaker 1: but we don't have to do that one, just because

1074
01:03:02,080 --> 01:03:09,240
Speaker 1: we're even staying away for Thursdays. Um, We're we all

1075
01:03:09,280 --> 01:03:13,880
Speaker 1: agreed right on Detroit, Like you don't want to do

1076
01:03:13,920 --> 01:03:16,440
Speaker 1: green Bay right there. I like Detroit in that spot,

1077
01:03:16,480 --> 01:03:18,120
Speaker 1: so we can we can stick with that one like

1078
01:03:18,320 --> 01:03:20,720
Speaker 1: green Bay. But but that Chad has convinced me that

1079
01:03:20,720 --> 01:03:27,000
Speaker 1: Detroit is the right I don't I don't want to

1080
01:03:27,000 --> 01:03:31,280
Speaker 1: do it because, um, I don't think we're gonna know

1081
01:03:31,480 --> 01:03:34,760
Speaker 1: about what's up with Patrick Mahomes before before we put

1082
01:03:34,800 --> 01:03:37,560
Speaker 1: our picks in. But that chief spot is such a

1083
01:03:37,560 --> 01:03:44,320
Speaker 1: good spot. I mean, and it's only minus five, which

1084
01:03:44,360 --> 01:03:50,080
Speaker 1: is I mean at home? You do you like everything

1085
01:03:50,120 --> 01:03:53,440
Speaker 1: we have? I do? I like, I like, I mean,

1086
01:03:53,480 --> 01:03:56,120
Speaker 1: I like our picks. I'm I'm trying to find us

1087
01:03:56,120 --> 01:03:59,520
Speaker 1: one more because last week we had a nice I

1088
01:03:59,600 --> 01:04:01,320
Speaker 1: mean didn't it didn't matter any we end up switching

1089
01:04:01,320 --> 01:04:04,919
Speaker 1: out the Cults for the Saints. Um, Like we said

1090
01:04:04,960 --> 01:04:06,600
Speaker 1: last week, it's nice to have an extra one to

1091
01:04:07,280 --> 01:04:10,360
Speaker 1: upset it. Well, I'm worried about that Jacksonville number. I

1092
01:04:10,400 --> 01:04:12,840
Speaker 1: would like the Saints to be able to win, but

1093
01:04:13,040 --> 01:04:16,960
Speaker 1: Jacksonville covers, um, so I'd like that to go to

1094
01:04:17,000 --> 01:04:18,800
Speaker 1: two two and a half or something like that. So

1095
01:04:19,000 --> 01:04:21,360
Speaker 1: that's why I want. I want that out if we

1096
01:04:21,440 --> 01:04:27,840
Speaker 1: have a good alternate, right, Um I do. I do

1097
01:04:27,960 --> 01:04:29,880
Speaker 1: like the Bucks, but like I get it, you guys

1098
01:04:29,880 --> 01:04:34,120
Speaker 1: probably don't want to do a London game. I don't mind.

1099
01:04:34,120 --> 01:04:38,320
Speaker 1: I don't mind doing a London game. How you feel

1100
01:04:38,320 --> 01:04:47,360
Speaker 1: about the Bucks there, Buccaneers? You really like Carolina there right, Well,

1101
01:04:47,400 --> 01:04:55,800
Speaker 1: obviously I just saw them play, so like in my system, Um,

1102
01:04:55,840 --> 01:04:58,400
Speaker 1: I have the bucks that minus two. I'm seeing some

1103
01:04:58,440 --> 01:05:02,040
Speaker 1: places where they're up to plus two. Now um yeah

1104
01:05:02,680 --> 01:05:04,520
Speaker 1: now now I'm trying to overthink it though, just because

1105
01:05:04,520 --> 01:05:06,760
Speaker 1: it is a London game, but that this is such

1106
01:05:06,800 --> 01:05:11,720
Speaker 1: a nice spot for the books. Wait, hold on one second.

1107
01:05:11,800 --> 01:05:14,920
Speaker 1: You have a four point differential in what it should

1108
01:05:15,000 --> 01:05:21,520
Speaker 1: be versus what it is. Yeah, because people nothing against

1109
01:05:21,560 --> 01:05:24,640
Speaker 1: this kid cap the Alans look good. I can't really

1110
01:05:24,640 --> 01:05:28,880
Speaker 1: even talk down on with Carolina. Um, but but can

1111
01:05:29,000 --> 01:05:33,200
Speaker 1: McCaffrey play out of his mind like he did less? Exactly?

1112
01:05:33,240 --> 01:05:37,600
Speaker 1: Like I have more faith in these big plays in

1113
01:05:37,840 --> 01:05:41,880
Speaker 1: London where no defenses have ever traveled well in London.

1114
01:05:42,920 --> 01:05:45,400
Speaker 1: So I like, I like God when I like, um,

1115
01:05:45,400 --> 01:05:50,800
Speaker 1: evans really really big in this game. But we can

1116
01:05:50,840 --> 01:05:53,320
Speaker 1: make that just our like our I like our five

1117
01:05:53,400 --> 01:05:57,440
Speaker 1: we got. I would take I would take Jacksonville out

1118
01:05:57,440 --> 01:06:04,680
Speaker 1: and put in Tampa. If you like Jacksonville better, Yes, sure,

1119
01:06:05,920 --> 01:06:10,160
Speaker 1: al right, here's our five. Sweat h Sweaton, Winston Sill

1120
01:06:10,200 --> 01:06:13,240
Speaker 1: you good time. We'll be up. We'll be up older

1121
01:06:13,280 --> 01:06:15,440
Speaker 1: than that. My friend Detroit plus four and a half

1122
01:06:15,920 --> 01:06:18,800
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay. It'll be plus one and a half, probably

1123
01:06:18,840 --> 01:06:22,400
Speaker 1: Cincinnati plus eleven and a half, Kansas City minus five

1124
01:06:22,440 --> 01:06:27,080
Speaker 1: and a half, Minnesota minus three. That's what we're doing.

1125
01:06:28,600 --> 01:06:32,880
Speaker 1: Let's cool, look at us three. Let's do this. Things

1126
01:06:32,880 --> 01:06:39,360
Speaker 1: are really changing here slowly. But Shirley Simon, group think,

1127
01:06:40,480 --> 01:06:45,320
Speaker 1: group think. It's a powerful thing, all right, Simon Hunters

1128
01:06:45,480 --> 01:06:50,960
Speaker 1: Professional Better, Dann Revel, Action Network Senior Writer Producer extraordinaire,

1129
01:06:52,320 --> 01:06:56,000
Speaker 1: thank you for coming on the podcast, folks. All right,

1130
01:06:56,120 --> 01:06:58,760
Speaker 1: that has been another episode of the Favorites from the

1131
01:06:58,760 --> 01:07:01,440
Speaker 1: Action Network. I want to thank Bob Scucci from New Orleans.

1132
01:07:01,520 --> 01:07:03,440
Speaker 1: I want to thank Darren Ravel from the Action Network.

1133
01:07:03,480 --> 01:07:06,280
Speaker 1: I want to thank Simon Hunts a Professional Better. You

1134
01:07:06,320 --> 01:07:10,520
Speaker 1: can download the podcast at Apple Podcast Rate Review, Subscribe.

1135
01:07:10,640 --> 01:07:14,320
Speaker 1: You can download at radio dot com look forward the Favorites,

1136
01:07:14,360 --> 01:07:17,000
Speaker 1: where you can also listen to the show Bob Scucci

1137
01:07:17,040 --> 01:07:21,080
Speaker 1: and I do Sunday's twelve to one Eastern before kickoff

1138
01:07:21,120 --> 01:07:23,720
Speaker 1: Action Network Countdown to Kickoff on the Radio dot com

1139
01:07:23,800 --> 01:07:27,040
Speaker 1: app Radio dot com af go download that as well.

1140
01:07:27,560 --> 01:07:31,800
Speaker 1: Until next time. This has been the Favorites. Son Chad Noulman,

1141
01:07:32,480 --> 01:07:32,840
Speaker 1: Love you