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Speaker 1: Hello there, Welcome to another episode of the Chuck Podcast,

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Speaker 1: and my guest today is Ian Bremer. He is principle

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Speaker 1: of the Eurasia Group, really sort of one of the

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Speaker 1: foreign policy and national security analysts that I consume the most.

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Speaker 1: If you've followed me down and beat the Press and

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Speaker 1: the NBC days, you know that I've used I quite

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Speaker 1: a lot in my expert category when it comes to

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Speaker 1: national security. He is wired as there is when it

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Speaker 1: comes to particularly when it comes to America's closest economic allies, Japan, Canada,

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Speaker 1: of the UK basically the G seven. Right, in many ways,

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Speaker 1: the G seven is America's closest allies, the key European

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Speaker 1: countries plus Japan and Canada there and he's look, it's

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Speaker 1: not just there that he's well sourced. He's well sourced

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Speaker 1: in a lot of key trade allies. And given what's

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Speaker 1: going on right now, and basically the conversation that I

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Speaker 1: have with him is trying to see is there a

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Speaker 1: to quote George H. W. Bush, right after the fall

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Speaker 1: of the Berlin Wall, at the time, it was creating

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Speaker 1: a new world order, and that was an exciting time

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Speaker 1: to create a new world order. We were creating a

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Speaker 1: new world order because the Iron curtain fell? Well, are

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Speaker 1: we now creating a new world order? A different one? Basically,

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Speaker 1: you know, the strongest cell thrive, right, And in many

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Speaker 1: ways this is if you examine Donald Trump and what

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Speaker 1: he really thinks when it comes to foreign policy, this

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Speaker 1: really does. You're better off thinking this way than trying

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Speaker 1: to come up with some other reasons why he thinks.

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Speaker 1: He's a very binary thinker in this there are winners

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Speaker 1: and losers. There's no such thing in Donald Trump's world

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Speaker 1: as win win. He may say the phrase win win.

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Speaker 1: He may want people to believe that when he does

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Speaker 1: a deal that he believes he's gotten the better end

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Speaker 1: of the deal, that he'll call it win win, But

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Speaker 1: he doesn't actually think there's ever an even split. He

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Speaker 1: doesn't really truly believe there is such thing as a

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Speaker 1: win win. And so when you think of it that way,

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Speaker 1: this is why he almost views every country that's not

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Speaker 1: China and Russia as essentially a secondary power, and that

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Speaker 1: they're somehow having to graft on. They're either a secondary

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Speaker 1: power in Russia's sphere of influence, a secondary power in

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Speaker 1: China's sphere of influence, or you're a secondary power in

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Speaker 1: America's sphere of influence. And so when you think about

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Speaker 1: it in those terms, it's possible at least to understand

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Speaker 1: perhaps why he has behaved the way he's behaved with Ukraine.

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Speaker 1: For instance. You sit here and you're ask yourself, boy,

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Speaker 1: Ukraine has done everything the president's asked. Russia has not,

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Speaker 1: and yet we have no ceasepe. And yet the President

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Speaker 1: is not lecturing Putin for not coming to the table,

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Speaker 1: but he didn't mind lecturing Zelensky when Zelensky was already

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Speaker 1: at the table. And I know there's plenty of other

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Speaker 1: nefarious reasons that some people might apply to this idea

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Speaker 1: of why Trump is being more patient with Putin than

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Speaker 1: anything else, But I can tell you this, at some point,

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump is going to see that Putin is disrespecting him,

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Speaker 1: that Putin is using him, that Putin thinks he's got

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Speaker 1: control of Trump. And one of the things that's been

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Speaker 1: a hallmark of Trump over the years is anybody who

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Speaker 1: thinks they have some sort of hold or over Trump,

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Speaker 1: he likes to then prove that wrong. And I can

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Speaker 1: tell you this. I know there's a lot of people

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Speaker 1: around Donald Trump who don't love how he's managed this

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Speaker 1: negotiation with Ukraine and Russia and are hoping that he

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Speaker 1: starts to realize what many people around him do realize,

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Speaker 1: which is Putin is not to be trusted and he's

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Speaker 1: never really going to be somebody you can trust. Will

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Speaker 1: at some point Donald Trump realized that Putin is disrespecting him.

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Speaker 1: I think that's an open question. What about She? Right,

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Speaker 1: he sees himself as sort of you know, there's this

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Speaker 1: odd respect he gives to she. Right. He loves to

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Speaker 1: talk about what a great relationship he has with she. Ironically,

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Speaker 1: it was Joe Biden that actually had the long term

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Speaker 1: relationship when he was vice president, she was essentially vice premier,

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Speaker 1: and they got to know each other walking around the

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Speaker 1: heartland at Iowa and things like that. But because Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump likes to create one on one relationships, I think

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Speaker 1: he believes, especially with somebody that he believes has equal

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Speaker 1: amount of power or equal amount of wealth. Right, in

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Speaker 1: this case, he sort of sees Putin and She more

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Speaker 1: as equals than he does the prime minister of Japan

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Speaker 1: or the Prime Minister of the UK or the resident

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Speaker 1: of France. And so is this a new world order

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Speaker 1: or is this just a moment that we're in because

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump is president and this is how he thinks.

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Speaker 1: Do we really expect this to become the through line

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Speaker 1: of Republican politics post Trump? It's hard to imagine that

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Speaker 1: it will, considering it does appear that there are fewer

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Speaker 1: Republicans truly on board with this line of thinking. But

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Speaker 1: we'll see as for what the tariffs have done to

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Speaker 1: sort of America's alliances. This is a long part of

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Speaker 1: our conversation with Ian, and I think it's fascinating. He

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Speaker 1: is not as pessimistic as some folks are, but he's

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Speaker 1: also not pollyannish about what Trump is trying to do either.

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Speaker 1: I will say this, and I think that it's something

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Speaker 1: that Ian and I get into. But I can't emphasize

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Speaker 1: this enough, and I've said this a few times when

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Speaker 1: it comes to why is Trump two point zero so

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Speaker 1: different from Trump one point zero? And the biggest sort

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Speaker 1: of it really starts at the beginning. There are three

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Speaker 1: people that were around him who put together the presidential

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Speaker 1: staff and cabinet the first time, Mike Pence writes previous

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Speaker 1: and Jared Kushner's son in law. None of those three

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Speaker 1: people are there this time. This time, the administration was

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Speaker 1: put together by folks who weren't thinking about the party

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Speaker 1: at large. But we're thinking about Donald Trump first. And

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Speaker 1: I do think the biggest mistake many of us have made,

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Speaker 1: including the stock market, was assuming that Trump one point

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Speaker 1: zero would have influence over Trump two point zero, that

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Speaker 1: what Trump one point oh did on the issue of tariffs,

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Speaker 1: for instance, will be similar to what he would do

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Speaker 1: in Trump two point zero. And I think that the

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Speaker 1: lesson that we ought to take away now as we

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Speaker 1: near the one hundred day mark is simply this, Trump

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Speaker 1: two point zero is its own unique presidency. In some ways,

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Speaker 1: if you are trying to figure out what he's going

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Speaker 1: to do next, the least helpful way to figure that

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Speaker 1: out is to look through the prism of Trump one

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Speaker 1: point zero, because that is not the case. I do

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Speaker 1: think you have a guy who does behave as if

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Speaker 1: he isn't running again, despite some of the rhetoric and

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Speaker 1: some of the pearl clutching that's out there when it

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Speaker 1: comes to him seeking a third term and not abiding

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Speaker 1: by the Constitution and things like that, if you actually

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Speaker 1: think about some of the moves he's made, they actually

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Speaker 1: make no sense politically in the short term. For him

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Speaker 1: or the Republican Party. But if he is truly believes

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Speaker 1: in creating this economic legacy and quote unquote, you know,

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Speaker 1: making America great again by returning manufacturing to the United

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Speaker 1: States and somehow hoping to turn back the clock on

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Speaker 1: the entire globe, I'm obviously I questioned whether that's even

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Speaker 1: possible that he's more in a THUMBA and Luise mode.

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Speaker 1: He's driving off the cliff regard list of the short

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Speaker 1: term political consequences, So we'll see. I think that it

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Speaker 1: is every time the markets think they have found a

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Speaker 1: guardrail on tariffs, he seems to want to go the

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Speaker 1: other way. So I do think we're still going to

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Speaker 1: remain in this uncertain world. And as long as they're uncertainty,

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Speaker 1: all that's going to do is slow down the economy,

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Speaker 1: and all that's going to do is cause short term

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Speaker 1: problems politically.

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Speaker 2: But with that, a.

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Speaker 1: Little bit of a tour of the world, starting with

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Speaker 1: how has this approach to tariffs reordered America's alliances around

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Speaker 1: the globe? What does it mean going forward? And here's

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Speaker 1: something to think about, what's the likelihood that we have

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Speaker 1: a trilateral summit before the end of this calendar year

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Speaker 1: between Putin she and Trump and how would the world

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Speaker 1: and how would America react to something like that? Just

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Speaker 1: something to think about with that, I'm an sneak. In

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Speaker 1: a quick break, we come back my conversation with Ian Bremer.

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Speaker 1: Pardon joining me now is Ian Bremmer. He is the

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Speaker 1: principal behind the Eurasia Group. He is somebody. But if

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Speaker 1: you've been following my work, you know that I count

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Speaker 1: on Ian as one of the great sort of global experts,

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Speaker 1: both in sort of the national security space and the

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Speaker 1: international business space. Is ear to the ground, particularly with

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Speaker 1: G seven and G twenty nations, is as good as anybody's.

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Speaker 1: He's pretty sourced up in some of the key Western

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Speaker 1: powers around the world that matter a lot more and

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Speaker 1: more these days with our politics. Let me timestamp this.

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Speaker 1: It is Monday afternoon, April fourteenth, because as we know,

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Speaker 1: in the Trump era, you just never know. But Ian anything,

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Speaker 1: it's good to talk with you, It's good to have

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Speaker 1: you in here.

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Speaker 3: You too, se absolutely, I'm happy to join the new

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Speaker 3: I appreciate that New relaunched.

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Speaker 1: It's you know, everything old is new again, right, But

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Speaker 1: let's look, I think the there's no doubt that Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump has done what he wanted to do, which is

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Speaker 1: shake up the world economic order. And I guess the

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Speaker 1: question is he's have we broken the economic order yet

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Speaker 1: or has he just done significant damage to it that

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Speaker 1: based on how things go over the next couple of years,

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Speaker 1: it's repairable.

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Speaker 3: I think that there are some things that are going

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Speaker 3: to change permanently on the back of all of this.

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Speaker 3: So no, I don't think you can put Humpty Dumpty

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Speaker 3: together again. That doesn't mean that he's broken the global economy.

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Speaker 3: But what I mean by that is you're going to

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Speaker 3: have You have all sorts of countries around the world

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Speaker 3: now that want to find ways long term to de

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Speaker 3: risk their exposure with our own United States. I mean,

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Speaker 3: over the last ten years, everyone's been talking about de

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Speaker 3: risking away from China, right right, because they were opaque

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Speaker 3: and didn't have rule of law, they were capricious, they

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Speaker 3: promoted their own national champions and it was just and

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Speaker 3: also because US China relations weren't that good.

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Speaker 2: So how much exposure did you really want long term

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Speaker 2: with China?

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Speaker 3: And that has led to a shift in global supply chain,

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Speaker 3: in capital flows. It helped India really take off China's economy.

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Speaker 3: That's you're now going to see a process of de

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Speaker 3: risking away from the United States. It is harder to

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Speaker 3: do because the US is of course a larger economy,

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Speaker 3: and for some countries, the US is utterly critical for

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Speaker 3: things like advanced technology and for national security support. And

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Speaker 3: of course the US dollar is still the global reserve currency.

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Speaker 3: But I mean those decisions that are being made, our

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Speaker 3: long term changes of trajectory that are not going to

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Speaker 3: shift back.

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Speaker 1: And why is that? I mean to guess why that is?

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Speaker 1: But I want you to I mean, is it because

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Speaker 1: this country's elected someone like Donald Trump twice? So why

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Speaker 1: shouldn't we assume the country won't go back and forth

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Speaker 1: between Maybe you have an internationalist and a protectionist and

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Speaker 1: that this is the new normal in America. And in

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Speaker 1: order to have trust in America, it is probably going

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Speaker 1: to take decades of consistency to convince some of these

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Speaker 1: countries to trust US again.

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Speaker 2: I don't think it's that, okay, Chuck.

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Speaker 3: I think that if trump second term was a repetition

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Speaker 3: of Trump first term, I.

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Speaker 2: Wouldn't be saying that right he was.

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Speaker 3: In other words, of Trump was much more constrained by

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Speaker 3: his own cabinet, by his own Republican.

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Speaker 1: And I continue to make this point. I mean, Mike

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Speaker 1: Penson writes, previous were the guardrail. They built all the

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Speaker 1: guardrails around Trump, and we look back, and you know,

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Speaker 1: there was I don't think people realized how significant and

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Speaker 1: important it was that the two of them were in

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Speaker 1: charge of personnel both a national security and economic policy.

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Speaker 2: Because absolutely absolutely different. That's better than most.

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Speaker 1: Completely, that's better than most.

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Speaker 3: But since we're talking about trade right now, I mean

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Speaker 3: also Robert Lightheist, also Steve Nutchen, also Jared Kushner, it

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Speaker 3: was different there, not there, not there. So I think

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Speaker 3: what we're seeing now is a response to the United

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Speaker 3: States suddenly pushing tariffs up to nineteen thirties level and beyond.

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Speaker 3: I think it is the president declaring that he individually

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Speaker 3: has the ability for national security emergency purposes through AEPA

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Speaker 3: to actually change laterally trade agreements that countries around the

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Speaker 3: world thought were the Americans were legally committed to. I

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Speaker 3: mean the US Mexico Canada agreement, which Trump himself did.

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Speaker 3: Trump is now essentially unwinding from his own authority, and

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Speaker 3: I mean there's gonna be lawsuits and that's going to

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Speaker 3: work its way through the courts. But if you're a

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Speaker 3: country that is trying to work in a global supply chain,

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Speaker 3: your ability to rely on, to count on, the United

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Speaker 3: States is nowhere close to what it was three months ago.

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Speaker 3: And that's before you get into all the other stuff.

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Speaker 3: You know, the claims on Greenland and Panama, the willingness

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Speaker 3: to export algorithms that undermine democracy, the threats to rule

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Speaker 3: of law domestically in the US, going after universities and

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Speaker 3: scientific grants, and all of those things that make the

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Speaker 3: US less attractive. Just looking at the trade story, this

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Speaker 3: is nothing close to what we had under Biden or

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Speaker 3: under Trump won.

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Speaker 2: And that is what the country is a responding.

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Speaker 1: So if your goal is to de risk from the

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Speaker 1: United States, a lot of times it meant, you know,

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Speaker 1: de risking from China meant, frankly, getting closer to the

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Speaker 1: United States, getting closer to India, getting closer to perhaps

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Speaker 1: the EU. What is de risking if you're pulling away

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Speaker 1: from the United States, is this now everybody's in. Everybody's

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Speaker 1: just simply retreating, and you'll do a little bit of

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Speaker 1: business with China, a little bit business with the United States,

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Speaker 1: just where it financially makes sense. Is that what you're describing,

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Speaker 1: or is China have Does China have an opportunity here

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Speaker 1: to become sort of the transactional leader of the global economy,

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Speaker 1: meaning you know what, we're not going to judge you politically,

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Speaker 1: We're just here to do business.

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Speaker 3: So in the Global South, with the exception of India,

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Speaker 3: which is important and we can get to that in

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Speaker 3: a bit, all of those countries already had China as

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Speaker 3: their leading trade partner. So I mean the United States

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Speaker 3: having just blown up USAID and now saying they're putting

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Speaker 3: tariffs another ten percent on all these countries, no matter

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Speaker 3: how poor they are, whether or not they have people,

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Speaker 3: Clearly that makes China mop up in those countries, right, sure,

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Speaker 3: I'll buy that. But that was the trajectory before Trump

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Speaker 3: put the tariffs on anyway, So not a massive change there.

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Speaker 3: For the Europeans, for example, you're now going to see

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Speaker 3: and for Latin America, you're seeing those countries' regions work

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Speaker 3: more quickly to ensure that they get the EU Mercosur

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Speaker 3: trade deal in place immediately. For India moving more closely

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Speaker 3: fast tracking trade engagement with the EU and with the UK,

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Speaker 3: and with Australia, and with New Zealand and a bunch

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Speaker 3: of other countries around the world. You know, for Canada,

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Speaker 3: it is how can we work more closely with the

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Speaker 3: Europeans as fast as possible and coordinate more with them.

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Speaker 3: For the Chinese first and foremost at Southeast Asia, you

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Speaker 3: see Shijinping just went to Vietnam forty five new trade

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Speaker 3: in Southeast Asia is sort of making a nice week

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Speaker 3: in Southeast Asia. That wasn't the plan. That wasn't the

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Speaker 3: plan three months ago. It is now, right, So you've

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Speaker 3: got that now, I that that story is not the

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Speaker 3: US is you know, sort of gonna lose influence and

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Speaker 3: all of it goes to China. That is everyone trying

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Speaker 3: to hedge everywhere at the margins and more over time

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Speaker 3: so that they can't be hit as badly by a

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Speaker 3: capricious overnight decision that can change again tomorrow by President

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Speaker 3: Trump and his top advisors. On the other hand, Chuck,

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Speaker 3: there is a longer term concern that as the United

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Speaker 3: States pulls away from its own globalization order with American

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Speaker 3: standards and values and institutions, the second largest economy in

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Speaker 3: the world will become dominant in much of that architecture.

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Speaker 3: So the US leaves the World Health Organization, China becomes dominant.

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Speaker 3: The US pulls out of the Paris Climate Accord, Who's

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Speaker 3: got all of the transition energy at scale solar power, batteries,

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Speaker 3: supply chain, critical minerals China. So you know, going forward

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Speaker 3: at the cop summits every year to advance how we're

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Speaker 3: going to respond to climate change and a post carbon

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Speaker 3: energy environment, China becomes the dominant actor.

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Speaker 2: The United States is not.

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Speaker 3: So I do think that law and if the US

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Speaker 3: were to pull out of the United Nations and decide

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Speaker 3: not to pay, then Chinese would be come the dominant

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Speaker 3: country influencing the UN too.

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Speaker 2: So longer term, I think.

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Speaker 3: There are real opportunities structurally for China that other countries

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Speaker 3: don't have. Near term, it's just like, cut deals as

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Speaker 3: fast as possible with the Americans, can they get because

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Speaker 3: they can hurt you. And I think that, you know,

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Speaker 3: the Secretary of Treasury Bessent, when he says all these

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Speaker 3: countries are calling me to cut deals, he's not lying

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Speaker 3: about that. That's true, because I mean, the US can

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Speaker 3: do a lot of damage if you don't get those

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Speaker 3: deals done. But that de risking is causing a hedging

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Speaker 3: behavior of every country and company around the world. Reduce

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Speaker 3: your exposures to the US as you can.

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Speaker 1: Seems to be another big winner out of this. And

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Speaker 1: I don't think this is what Donald Trump intended. You

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Speaker 1: said the EU quite a bit. This seems to be

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Speaker 1: a real opportunity for the EU perhaps to sort of

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Speaker 1: flex its muscles and maybe finally sort of get itself

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Speaker 1: a on a not an equal playing field, but on

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Speaker 1: a stronger playing field a little bit. If they're able

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Speaker 1: to be the Western I guess waystation if you will,

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Speaker 1: for Asia and Latin America, that.

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Speaker 3: Would be the good outcome, that would be the stabilizing outcome.

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Speaker 3: If on the back of all of this US driven

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Speaker 3: geopolitical uncertainty and volatility in shock.

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Speaker 1: That's underlie that you're US driven global I mean driven,

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Speaker 1: that is what's driven. This is what's just so mind boggling,

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Speaker 1: I think to so many people in the United States,

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Speaker 1: business leaders, political leaders, you name it, which is like

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Speaker 1: this has all been self inflicted. Everybody is behaving as

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Speaker 1: if a war just happened or a pandemic just happened,

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Speaker 1: but instead Trump just happened. That's what happened.

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Speaker 2: That's right a decision.

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Speaker 3: I mean, Trump is symptomatic of an awful lot of

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Speaker 3: Americans that increasingly don't support US driven collective security, US

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Speaker 3: driven rule of law, US driven free trade.

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Speaker 2: So it's not like this is new. This has been

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Speaker 2: coming for decades.

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Speaker 3: But Trump's second term absolutely said I am going to

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Speaker 3: destroy this old order. Everyone is taking advantage of us.

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Speaker 3: That's not going to happen anymore. So, I mean, this

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Speaker 3: is what people voted for. He said he was going

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Speaker 3: to do it, and now he's doing that. Sure people, right, people,

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Speaker 3: you know this is I can tell you. I mean,

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Speaker 3: this is what I think the great misunderstanding of this election,

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Speaker 3: which is he may have said it, but he said

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Speaker 3: it going into the first election.

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Speaker 1: He didn't do it. There were a lot of people

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Speaker 1: that just assumed, hey, am I going to get Trump

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Speaker 1: one point? Oh, I'll take that over Biden and Harris

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Speaker 1: two point up. Which that's what people I think, at

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Speaker 1: least the ones that decided this election, right, and ultimately,

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Speaker 1: by the.

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Speaker 2: Way I think the markets, the markets agreed with you.

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Speaker 2: That's right.

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Speaker 3: The markets didn't believe this so surprised because they thought

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Speaker 3: as saying it, but he doesn't.

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Speaker 1: He doesn't really mean it because ultimately he doesn't want to.

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Speaker 1: I think, you know, as somebody put it, maybe you

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Speaker 1: did it in your newsletter today. He doesn't look like

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Speaker 1: a for destroying America's economic leadership. Right. That bothers him

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Speaker 1: that people with more money than him will think he's

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Speaker 1: a he's an idiot, right, So that weirdly can serve

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Speaker 1: as a guardrail with him. But I don't know, you know,

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Speaker 1: he seems increasingly isolated, ask me. But I want to

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Speaker 1: go back to you, because it does feel as if

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Speaker 1: they're potentially a beneficiary here if frankly, they know how

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Speaker 1: to take advantage of this moment, and they don't always

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Speaker 1: do so.

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Speaker 3: The good news is that this, and it's not good

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Speaker 3: news for the United States near term, is that the

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Speaker 3: Europeans do understand that this requires more unity, so they

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Speaker 3: have to if they don't have Hungary with them. They

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Speaker 3: have to take decisions not on the basis of twenty

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Speaker 3: seven country unanimity, but redefine what consensus means. They need

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Speaker 3: to play harder ball. They need to spend more. They

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Speaker 3: need to get rid of the debt break in Germany.

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Speaker 3: The UK needs to all with what the Europeans are

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Speaker 3: up to the Italians have to prioritize the EU more

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Speaker 3: than their bridge with the US. All of those things

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Speaker 3: are true, All of those things are happening. But but

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Speaker 3: long term, do I believe that the Europeans have what

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Speaker 3: it takes to survive in an environment where they're going

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Speaker 3: to get hit a lot harder?

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Speaker 1: Right?

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Speaker 3: I mean, the US economy is much much stronger than Europe.

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Speaker 3: And you know, today you look at the average EU citizen,

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Speaker 3: you realize this place is poorer than Mississippi.

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Speaker 1: Poorer than the four we've been making American state, and

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Speaker 1: how frankly our standard are living. I mean, this is

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Speaker 1: the this is the frustrating thing about people not understanding

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Speaker 1: how good we have it.

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Speaker 2: Here, how could we have it?

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Speaker 1: How better our standard of living is in Mississippi compared

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Speaker 1: to every other member of the G seven.

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Speaker 3: Right, So the idea that the Europeans, with that level

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Speaker 3: of comparative poverty and anger internally, are going to spend

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Speaker 3: They're suddenly going to you know, fifty percent more spending

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Speaker 3: on defense with with countries, many countries that have no

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Speaker 3: fiscal space, that are very highly indebted in an inflate

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Speaker 3: inflation and interest rate environment that's going to be going up,

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Speaker 3: and they've got all the illegal migrants that are trying

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Speaker 3: to get in, They've got the Russians, you know, sort

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Speaker 3: of right next to them, that the Americans are trying

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Speaker 3: to cut a deal with over their heads.

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Speaker 2: That I'm not sure Europe makes it in this Molly.

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Speaker 3: Europe does have a more functional political system, a less

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Speaker 3: kleptocratic political system, a more transparent political system than the

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Speaker 3: United States, just as Canada, this just as Japan. That's true,

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Speaker 3: but unfortunately, the future of the global order does not

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Speaker 3: seem to be more power to the countries that have

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Speaker 3: the best rule of law. The future seems to be

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Speaker 3: that the power is in the hands of the top down.

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Speaker 3: We can determine outcomes on the basis not of rule

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Speaker 3: of law, but on the basis of.

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Speaker 2: The people that have power can tell you what to do.

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Speaker 3: And the Chinese are doing that with the state controlling

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Speaker 3: the economy, and the US is doing that with the

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Speaker 3: private spec sector and special interests controlling the state.

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Speaker 2: So is it a state capitalist model or is a

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Speaker 2: kleptocratic model.

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Speaker 3: Either way, I think the Europeans are getting squeezed, so

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Speaker 3: long term, I'm not sure this opportunity in Europe.

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Speaker 2: Is going to be seized by the Europeans.

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Speaker 1: Go back to China. How much has Donald Trump's moves

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Speaker 1: sort of helped to bail she out a little bit? Right,

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Speaker 1: He's got his own domestic economic issues. The fact of

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Speaker 1: the matters, I would argue decoupling over the last three

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Speaker 1: or four years. Frankly, what was started under Trump and

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Speaker 1: continued under Biden was having the desired effect on China.

437
00:26:06,280 --> 00:26:11,280
Speaker 1: Right we were the pivot to India, and in typical

438
00:26:11,280 --> 00:26:13,199
Speaker 1: Trump fashion, it I guess you could look at it

439
00:26:13,200 --> 00:26:17,879
Speaker 1: as impatience. If the long term goal was to essentially

440
00:26:18,000 --> 00:26:23,359
Speaker 1: weaken China, this was happening, just not at a huge,

441
00:26:24,119 --> 00:26:26,880
Speaker 1: huge speed a little bit, but it was potentially happening.

442
00:26:27,480 --> 00:26:31,080
Speaker 1: But this seems to, if anything, provides she a lifeline

443
00:26:31,680 --> 00:26:36,199
Speaker 1: to perhaps get better relations with some of the Asian

444
00:26:36,240 --> 00:26:40,520
Speaker 1: countries that would have preferred US protection both on security

445
00:26:40,560 --> 00:26:45,560
Speaker 1: but also having an economic partnership. And now it's you know, well, geez,

446
00:26:46,280 --> 00:26:49,600
Speaker 1: there's China's over here in our region. Not crazy about

447
00:26:49,600 --> 00:26:51,600
Speaker 1: them as a partner, but I don't know what to

448
00:26:51,640 --> 00:26:54,080
Speaker 1: make of the United States these days. I guess I

449
00:26:54,080 --> 00:26:56,320
Speaker 1: got to take this meeting with China. The point is,

450
00:26:56,320 --> 00:27:00,000
Speaker 1: it just feels like we handed China a huge opportunit

451
00:27:00,000 --> 00:27:03,440
Speaker 1: tunity when actually they were I don't want to say

452
00:27:03,440 --> 00:27:05,600
Speaker 1: in retreat, they were on their heels a little bit.

453
00:27:06,359 --> 00:27:08,280
Speaker 2: That's a tough one. It's a tough one, Chuck.

454
00:27:08,640 --> 00:27:12,960
Speaker 3: I'm literally torn on this topic because you know, US

455
00:27:13,040 --> 00:27:17,760
Speaker 3: policy towards China has been a bipartisan consensus over the

456
00:27:17,840 --> 00:27:21,480
Speaker 3: last decade. The Chinese were convinced that everyone in the

457
00:27:21,560 --> 00:27:23,879
Speaker 3: US was trying to contain them no matter what.

458
00:27:24,920 --> 00:27:27,000
Speaker 1: By the way, I think they're right about I do

459
00:27:27,080 --> 00:27:29,199
Speaker 1: think that if you that was a probably the view

460
00:27:29,240 --> 00:27:30,880
Speaker 1: of ninety of out of one hundred senators.

461
00:27:31,560 --> 00:27:34,720
Speaker 3: Yeah, so under Trump, I mean that's when you started

462
00:27:34,840 --> 00:27:37,280
Speaker 3: some of these tariffs. Under Trump, that's when you started

463
00:27:37,359 --> 00:27:41,320
Speaker 3: hitting the Chinese on Huawei and five G. Then under Biden,

464
00:27:41,400 --> 00:27:44,720
Speaker 3: you extend the tariffs, you do more export controls, you

465
00:27:44,800 --> 00:27:48,719
Speaker 3: hit them on semiconductors for example. Now, the reaction of

466
00:27:48,800 --> 00:27:53,320
Speaker 3: that by the Chinese was, Okay, we can't rely on

467
00:27:53,440 --> 00:27:59,120
Speaker 3: TSMC and Taiwan. We need to invest everything into these

468
00:27:59,240 --> 00:28:04,200
Speaker 3: new high technologies internally. And you know, you look at

469
00:28:04,240 --> 00:28:08,320
Speaker 3: how shocked our friends in Silicon Valley and elsewhere were

470
00:28:08,359 --> 00:28:12,639
Speaker 3: by the release of Deep Seek. Right, that was you know,

471
00:28:12,840 --> 00:28:21,040
Speaker 3: Chinese investment into Chinese domestic capacity. Yes, with Western semiconductors,

472
00:28:21,440 --> 00:28:24,560
Speaker 3: but they're moving as fast as possible to not have.

473
00:28:24,560 --> 00:28:27,480
Speaker 1: That rel with so naive, so twitter bad. I know,

474
00:28:27,640 --> 00:28:29,919
Speaker 1: this was so naive on our part. Right, what is

475
00:28:29,960 --> 00:28:31,040
Speaker 1: the mother of invention?

476
00:28:31,280 --> 00:28:31,440
Speaker 3: Right?

477
00:28:31,600 --> 00:28:32,159
Speaker 1: Necessity?

478
00:28:32,240 --> 00:28:32,960
Speaker 2: Some necessity?

479
00:28:33,040 --> 00:28:36,119
Speaker 1: Yes, right? I mean what did you think? But they

480
00:28:36,119 --> 00:28:38,240
Speaker 1: have a billion people, you don't think they can find

481
00:28:38,320 --> 00:28:42,080
Speaker 1: some that have just as uh smart of brains as

482
00:28:42,120 --> 00:28:45,320
Speaker 1: our gives do on this. I mean, it really was,

483
00:28:45,920 --> 00:28:51,680
Speaker 1: frankly one of those ridiculous American exceptionalism moments.

484
00:28:51,720 --> 00:28:52,720
Speaker 2: Look, I remember Chuck.

485
00:28:52,800 --> 00:28:55,680
Speaker 3: At the beginning of the Trump administration, I had a

486
00:28:55,720 --> 00:28:58,960
Speaker 3: big debate with Steve Bannon, who, as you know, is

487
00:28:59,560 --> 00:29:04,320
Speaker 3: no and intellectual slouch, and he was making this argument

488
00:29:04,400 --> 00:29:08,480
Speaker 3: that we have to fight the Chinese now, we have

489
00:29:08,520 --> 00:29:12,760
Speaker 3: to hit them as hard as possible because we're at

490
00:29:12,760 --> 00:29:15,600
Speaker 3: a moment that otherwise they're going to become dominant in

491
00:29:15,680 --> 00:29:19,560
Speaker 3: all these technologies globally and if we don't do it now,

492
00:29:19,640 --> 00:29:22,040
Speaker 3: we're never going to be able to. And my response

493
00:29:22,120 --> 00:29:26,200
Speaker 3: to him was, you know, in order to make that work.

494
00:29:26,400 --> 00:29:29,800
Speaker 3: Even if you agree, even if I agree with you,

495
00:29:29,840 --> 00:29:32,720
Speaker 3: that the relationship has to be zero summon, there's no

496
00:29:32,760 --> 00:29:35,600
Speaker 3: way to engage with the Chinese long term. You still

497
00:29:35,640 --> 00:29:38,800
Speaker 3: have to be able to execute on that plan, and

498
00:29:38,840 --> 00:29:42,200
Speaker 3: that means not just for one term, but over a

499
00:29:42,360 --> 00:29:45,200
Speaker 3: series of political terms, and not just the United States

500
00:29:45,240 --> 00:29:47,720
Speaker 3: by itself, but combined with allies.

501
00:29:47,760 --> 00:29:50,040
Speaker 2: And I go back to that conversation.

502
00:29:49,560 --> 00:29:54,120
Speaker 3: In my mind a lot nowadays thinking about the Americans

503
00:29:54,280 --> 00:29:57,320
Speaker 3: just don't have the political system to execute. The reason

504
00:29:57,360 --> 00:30:00,760
Speaker 3: why rule of law works better for the United States

505
00:30:00,760 --> 00:30:03,520
Speaker 3: than it does for China is because the US is

506
00:30:03,640 --> 00:30:08,400
Speaker 3: not a multi generational dictatorship with a single political party,

507
00:30:09,040 --> 00:30:13,760
Speaker 3: and so actually we benefit from having some public goods

508
00:30:14,280 --> 00:30:17,160
Speaker 3: that we constrain a whole bunch of countries around the

509
00:30:17,160 --> 00:30:19,400
Speaker 3: world to align with, including ourselves.

510
00:30:19,440 --> 00:30:22,160
Speaker 2: We limit our own power to a degree.

511
00:30:22,080 --> 00:30:25,680
Speaker 3: Because we know we can't actually do just hitting countries

512
00:30:25,840 --> 00:30:28,600
Speaker 3: strategically and consistently in the face and the same way

513
00:30:29,120 --> 00:30:33,320
Speaker 3: over ten twenty thirty years, even if you thought that

514
00:30:33,480 --> 00:30:35,640
Speaker 3: was the best way to run the world, and I don't,

515
00:30:35,720 --> 00:30:38,240
Speaker 3: and you know that. But even if you believed it's

516
00:30:38,280 --> 00:30:41,240
Speaker 3: all the jungle, the fact is the US doesn't have

517
00:30:41,280 --> 00:30:44,160
Speaker 3: the best political system to operate with the law of

518
00:30:44,200 --> 00:30:46,280
Speaker 3: the jungle, and that is something that the Trump team

519
00:30:46,440 --> 00:30:47,120
Speaker 3: just disagrees.

520
00:30:47,440 --> 00:30:50,360
Speaker 1: Well, the thing that I've always sort of disagreed also

521
00:30:50,440 --> 00:30:53,400
Speaker 1: with the Trump team on this is this idea that

522
00:30:53,640 --> 00:30:56,080
Speaker 1: they're convinced the Chinese models going to work.

523
00:30:56,440 --> 00:30:56,600
Speaker 2: Right.

524
00:30:56,640 --> 00:30:58,800
Speaker 1: Look, I believe that the Chinese have built the middle

525
00:30:58,800 --> 00:31:02,200
Speaker 1: class that are going to start demanding things. And this

526
00:31:02,280 --> 00:31:04,200
Speaker 1: is you know, we sow it in our own country,

527
00:31:04,560 --> 00:31:07,240
Speaker 1: and I look at the beginnings of the twentieth century,

528
00:31:07,760 --> 00:31:10,960
Speaker 1: and we're using child labor, we're using we're doing all

529
00:31:11,000 --> 00:31:15,160
Speaker 1: sorts of frankly terrible abusive things, right, and what happened

530
00:31:15,160 --> 00:31:17,720
Speaker 1: in the middle class, and ah, we need these rights,

531
00:31:17,720 --> 00:31:19,720
Speaker 1: we need these rights, we need these rights. Well, we

532
00:31:19,720 --> 00:31:22,680
Speaker 1: were a democracy, so there were lots of avenues to

533
00:31:22,720 --> 00:31:25,360
Speaker 1: do this. You know. I've always thought the weight of

534
00:31:25,400 --> 00:31:29,840
Speaker 1: that was it was the best check we had on China,

535
00:31:29,960 --> 00:31:33,960
Speaker 1: a check that while that their own people were eventually

536
00:31:34,000 --> 00:31:37,239
Speaker 1: going to put on them. And this is where it

537
00:31:37,360 --> 00:31:41,760
Speaker 1: frustrates me to essentially accelerate this because now now you're

538
00:31:41,840 --> 00:31:46,240
Speaker 1: essentially giving she an opportunity to blame America for their

539
00:31:46,280 --> 00:31:50,719
Speaker 1: current economic woes, which is some truth to that now too, right,

540
00:31:50,760 --> 00:31:53,880
Speaker 1: it's got to accelerate it and by himself more time

541
00:31:54,920 --> 00:31:58,240
Speaker 1: with a middle class that we again there are lots

542
00:31:58,240 --> 00:32:00,960
Speaker 1: of little pieces of evidence, but this is becoming an

543
00:32:01,000 --> 00:32:03,360
Speaker 1: issue for them, whether it's the housing issue that they

544
00:32:03,360 --> 00:32:06,760
Speaker 1: were dealing with or what we saw during COVID, and

545
00:32:06,840 --> 00:32:11,880
Speaker 1: so it really is a I think an over estimation

546
00:32:12,080 --> 00:32:13,360
Speaker 1: of the strength of the CCP.

547
00:32:15,200 --> 00:32:20,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, I was with you on that argument strongly until

548
00:32:20,520 --> 00:32:25,000
Speaker 3: eighteen twenty years ago. And you know, I remember all

549
00:32:25,040 --> 00:32:27,720
Speaker 3: the op eds that Tom Friedman used to write about

550
00:32:27,720 --> 00:32:30,440
Speaker 3: how the middle class was becoming restive and look at

551
00:32:30,440 --> 00:32:33,840
Speaker 3: the demonstrations in China, and you know, look at the

552
00:32:33,840 --> 00:32:36,840
Speaker 3: Wigurs and of course, I mean what the Chinese were

553
00:32:36,880 --> 00:32:41,680
Speaker 3: able to do in Shinjiang is created a technology empowered

554
00:32:41,720 --> 00:32:47,520
Speaker 3: surveillance society over well over a million people, and they

555
00:32:47,560 --> 00:32:50,600
Speaker 3: can't do a damn thing, and the Chinese government has

556
00:32:50,640 --> 00:32:53,320
Speaker 3: complete control and they can nudge them into.

557
00:32:53,120 --> 00:32:54,840
Speaker 2: Patriotic behavior or else.

558
00:32:54,880 --> 00:32:58,440
Speaker 3: And what I fear, I mean, yes, the Chinese government

559
00:32:58,520 --> 00:33:03,160
Speaker 3: has provided extraordinary economic growth for decades now and they

560
00:33:03,200 --> 00:33:05,479
Speaker 3: get credit for that, even though it's not performing as

561
00:33:05,480 --> 00:33:09,440
Speaker 3: well right now. But they also are the most technologically

562
00:33:09,520 --> 00:33:13,840
Speaker 3: empowered authoritarian state in the world at scale, and I

563
00:33:14,120 --> 00:33:20,520
Speaker 3: worry that in marked contrast to the communications revolution, where

564
00:33:20,640 --> 00:33:23,280
Speaker 3: everybody had access to an Internet that gave them more

565
00:33:23,320 --> 00:33:25,600
Speaker 3: information on what was happening in their own country and

566
00:33:25,600 --> 00:33:28,240
Speaker 3: around the world and made them want liberty, you now

567
00:33:28,360 --> 00:33:32,680
Speaker 3: actually have a surveillance revolution, the data revolution, which is

568
00:33:32,760 --> 00:33:36,280
Speaker 3: much more top down than bottom up, where the Chinese

569
00:33:36,360 --> 00:33:41,800
Speaker 3: government you know, actually has the ability to control behavior

570
00:33:42,800 --> 00:33:45,720
Speaker 3: or else. And it seem you look at what happened

571
00:33:45,760 --> 00:33:49,440
Speaker 3: in the pandemic and China's zero COVID policies, we were

572
00:33:49,480 --> 00:33:51,719
Speaker 3: horribly repressive, draconian.

573
00:33:51,840 --> 00:33:52,560
Speaker 2: It didn't work.

574
00:33:53,480 --> 00:33:58,320
Speaker 3: And yet when individual Chinese engaged in small scale demonstrations

575
00:33:58,320 --> 00:33:59,720
Speaker 3: and did what they could to try to, you know,

576
00:34:00,080 --> 00:34:05,280
Speaker 3: obscure their identity, the Chinese police found them and their

577
00:34:05,320 --> 00:34:08,920
Speaker 3: relations and made knocks on those doors and said, okay,

578
00:34:08,920 --> 00:34:10,839
Speaker 3: we're going to be we're going to be soft with you.

579
00:34:10,840 --> 00:34:12,800
Speaker 2: You got a one strike policy.

580
00:34:13,200 --> 00:34:15,879
Speaker 3: But you do this again and you're losing your job,

581
00:34:16,120 --> 00:34:18,840
Speaker 3: you're losing your education, you may not be heard from again.

582
00:34:19,040 --> 00:34:22,440
Speaker 3: And that had such a chilling effect. So I'm I

583
00:34:22,680 --> 00:34:25,560
Speaker 3: want you to be right on this one Chuck, I

584
00:34:25,640 --> 00:34:31,920
Speaker 3: really do. I worry that what's happening with technology in China,

585
00:34:32,480 --> 00:34:36,320
Speaker 3: in the government and in the West in the private

586
00:34:36,400 --> 00:34:44,560
Speaker 3: sector is increasingly promoting illiberal, closed political systems and making

587
00:34:44,600 --> 00:34:46,040
Speaker 3: them more powerful and stable.

588
00:34:46,440 --> 00:34:48,440
Speaker 1: What would life be like right now if there was

589
00:34:48,480 --> 00:34:52,319
Speaker 1: a TPP. This is for those that don't remember the

590
00:34:52,400 --> 00:34:55,640
Speaker 1: Trans Trade Agreement to the Partnership. This was a trade

591
00:34:55,680 --> 00:35:01,200
Speaker 1: agreement that basically all of the of leadership of both

592
00:35:01,239 --> 00:35:05,560
Speaker 1: parties was basically in favor of SARKA twenty fourteen than

593
00:35:06,239 --> 00:35:11,360
Speaker 1: the rise of Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump, who effectively

594
00:35:11,920 --> 00:35:15,200
Speaker 1: messaged against it in a way to turn it into

595
00:35:15,280 --> 00:35:21,000
Speaker 1: NAFTA and sort of used it to weaponize that side

596
00:35:21,000 --> 00:35:23,040
Speaker 1: of the argument, and it killed it in both parties.

597
00:35:23,040 --> 00:35:25,840
Speaker 2: I'd argue, you know, Obama couldn't get it done.

598
00:35:25,680 --> 00:35:28,440
Speaker 1: Right, and Hillary Clinton pulled back from her support of it.

599
00:35:28,600 --> 00:35:31,520
Speaker 1: Trump ends up killing it. And it makes me laugh

600
00:35:31,560 --> 00:35:34,920
Speaker 1: because I think it was last week where Howard Lucknak

601
00:35:35,000 --> 00:35:37,920
Speaker 1: was talking about bringing in all of our allies in

602
00:35:37,960 --> 00:35:41,360
Speaker 1: Asia togetherize and You're like, hey, I had an idea, dude.

603
00:35:41,440 --> 00:35:44,640
Speaker 1: You know, we had this thing called the Transpacific Partnership,

604
00:35:44,680 --> 00:35:49,560
Speaker 1: had pretty much every Asian economy with a democracy involved.

605
00:35:50,280 --> 00:35:52,279
Speaker 1: That's a good idea. I guess you think it is now,

606
00:35:52,840 --> 00:35:53,799
Speaker 1: mister Lutnik, right.

607
00:35:54,280 --> 00:35:56,520
Speaker 3: And of course it does exist, just not with the US.

608
00:35:56,560 --> 00:35:59,520
Speaker 3: It's called the CPTPP. This is China and China version

609
00:35:59,520 --> 00:36:03,719
Speaker 3: of it, right, Yeah, no, no, this was shinzo Abe.

610
00:36:04,200 --> 00:36:07,879
Speaker 3: When the Americans pulled out of the TPP. He said,

611
00:36:07,920 --> 00:36:09,960
Speaker 3: you know what, we need to do this just without

612
00:36:09,960 --> 00:36:13,000
Speaker 3: the United States, so not as powerful, but same basic deal,

613
00:36:13,120 --> 00:36:16,279
Speaker 3: high standards, high level of integration. They all signed it,

614
00:36:16,520 --> 00:36:19,880
Speaker 3: so it exists without the United States. But if the

615
00:36:19,920 --> 00:36:22,560
Speaker 3: TPP had been done, had been signed, and you would

616
00:36:22,600 --> 00:36:26,719
Speaker 3: have had some more growth and more trade integration. And

617
00:36:26,760 --> 00:36:29,200
Speaker 3: then Trump gets elected again because I don't think that

618
00:36:29,520 --> 00:36:31,880
Speaker 3: the existence of that would have stopped him from getting elected.

619
00:36:31,880 --> 00:36:32,600
Speaker 2: I don't believe that.

620
00:36:32,600 --> 00:36:32,960
Speaker 1: I don't know.

621
00:36:33,480 --> 00:36:37,839
Speaker 3: Then when he decided to do Liberation Day, it would

622
00:36:37,880 --> 00:36:40,200
Speaker 3: have had the same level of restraint on him that

623
00:36:40,280 --> 00:36:43,480
Speaker 3: the USMCA did between the US, Mexico and Canada, which

624
00:36:43,520 --> 00:36:46,920
Speaker 3: is absolutely zero. So mean again, if the president decides

625
00:36:46,960 --> 00:36:50,040
Speaker 3: on the back of the American voters that free trade

626
00:36:50,239 --> 00:36:53,400
Speaker 3: is actually something that other countries used to take advantage

627
00:36:53,400 --> 00:36:56,359
Speaker 3: of the US and that every country needs to have

628
00:36:56,560 --> 00:37:00,400
Speaker 3: historic levels of tariffs, even if the Americans are running

629
00:37:00,440 --> 00:37:03,759
Speaker 3: a surplus. And that's the thing that really cheeses me off, right,

630
00:37:04,120 --> 00:37:07,759
Speaker 3: the idea that Trump is saying that countries around the

631
00:37:07,800 --> 00:37:11,680
Speaker 3: world the US is running trade deficits and therefore we

632
00:37:11,760 --> 00:37:14,600
Speaker 3: need to put tariffs in place that will put those

633
00:37:14,719 --> 00:37:20,520
Speaker 3: that trade balance at parody. And you say, okay, I understand,

634
00:37:20,640 --> 00:37:21,799
Speaker 3: it's not reciprocal.

635
00:37:22,040 --> 00:37:24,279
Speaker 1: You want to create reciprocity. But not only did he.

636
00:37:24,320 --> 00:37:28,839
Speaker 3: Not actually, you know, look at the trade levels that way,

637
00:37:29,040 --> 00:37:32,000
Speaker 3: but even with all the countries that the US is

638
00:37:32,080 --> 00:37:34,840
Speaker 3: running a surplus, in other words, by Trump's own logic,

639
00:37:35,360 --> 00:37:40,359
Speaker 3: the US must be taking advantage of those countries Brazil, Australia,

640
00:37:40,800 --> 00:37:45,240
Speaker 3: he puts ten percent tariffs, a very historically high level

641
00:37:45,760 --> 00:37:49,600
Speaker 3: on those countries too. I mean, no, there's literally no

642
00:37:49,800 --> 00:37:52,160
Speaker 3: justification for it, aside from the fact that he thinks

643
00:37:52,160 --> 00:37:53,880
Speaker 3: he can because the Americans are powerful.

644
00:37:53,960 --> 00:37:58,200
Speaker 1: Look your work for a consultant group that tries to

645
00:37:58,239 --> 00:38:02,000
Speaker 1: help business, I think navigate the globe the global political space.

646
00:38:02,080 --> 00:38:04,040
Speaker 1: Is that a fair way of describing your business? I mean,

647
00:38:04,400 --> 00:38:06,319
Speaker 1: we have we do other things, but sure that's one

648
00:38:06,320 --> 00:38:09,400
Speaker 1: of them. Among the things. So you're asking them a

649
00:38:09,480 --> 00:38:15,080
Speaker 1: multinational corporation is asking you. Okay. Trump says the goal

650
00:38:15,200 --> 00:38:19,680
Speaker 1: is to return manufacturing into the United States, but he

651
00:38:19,760 --> 00:38:23,480
Speaker 1: also apparently has opened a negotiation. So maybe that isn't

652
00:38:23,480 --> 00:38:28,319
Speaker 1: the case. What should how should we respond to this,

653
00:38:28,360 --> 00:38:29,839
Speaker 1: because at the end of the day, we're still going

654
00:38:29,880 --> 00:38:33,280
Speaker 1: to do business on three major continents North America, Europe,

655
00:38:33,280 --> 00:38:35,239
Speaker 1: and Asia. We still want to do business in all

656
00:38:35,239 --> 00:38:37,520
Speaker 1: three of those continents, So we can't you know, this

657
00:38:37,560 --> 00:38:40,040
Speaker 1: isn't the nineteen thirties. Right, in the nineteen twenties and

658
00:38:40,080 --> 00:38:44,080
Speaker 1: nineteen thirties, American businesses did business mostly in America, and

659
00:38:44,920 --> 00:38:48,480
Speaker 1: so you know that terrif regime also turned out to

660
00:38:48,480 --> 00:38:51,759
Speaker 1: be a disaster. But we didn't even have a tenth

661
00:38:51,840 --> 00:38:55,839
Speaker 1: of the global trade that we have today. So what

662
00:38:55,880 --> 00:38:57,920
Speaker 1: do you tell them? Where do you tell them to

663
00:38:58,000 --> 00:39:00,080
Speaker 1: make their product? Where do you tell them to you?

664
00:39:00,760 --> 00:39:02,960
Speaker 1: Is it more of a you know what, don't do

665
00:39:03,080 --> 00:39:06,280
Speaker 1: any don't make any major decisions for the next two years.

666
00:39:06,400 --> 00:39:09,719
Speaker 1: Let's wait till this shakes out, which of course is

667
00:39:09,960 --> 00:39:12,000
Speaker 1: just a disaster for the global economy.

668
00:39:12,040 --> 00:39:16,719
Speaker 3: If that's the case in the short term, it is

669
00:39:17,520 --> 00:39:22,920
Speaker 3: don't move supply chain other than US China, where you

670
00:39:22,920 --> 00:39:25,600
Speaker 3: know you now have with the exception of this near

671
00:39:25,760 --> 00:39:31,600
Speaker 3: term carve out for electronics. Everything else is a trade

672
00:39:31,640 --> 00:39:34,960
Speaker 3: embargo level. So those goods aren't moving. I mean, when

673
00:39:34,960 --> 00:39:37,040
Speaker 3: you've got one hundred and forty five percent, you're not

674
00:39:37,080 --> 00:39:40,440
Speaker 3: selling those goods, right So that is two largest economies

675
00:39:40,480 --> 00:39:42,440
Speaker 3: in the world have to find other ways to get

676
00:39:42,440 --> 00:39:45,680
Speaker 3: those goods, either transshipment through other countries or source them

677
00:39:45,719 --> 00:39:46,319
Speaker 3: someplace else.

678
00:39:46,560 --> 00:39:48,600
Speaker 2: That is an immediate move that you have to make

679
00:39:48,680 --> 00:39:49,319
Speaker 2: right right now.

680
00:39:49,680 --> 00:39:51,560
Speaker 1: By the way, I'm fascinated to go to a dollar

681
00:39:51,600 --> 00:39:54,799
Speaker 1: store about two months and see what inventory they have anyway.

682
00:39:54,520 --> 00:39:55,359
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's gonna be really tough.

683
00:39:55,360 --> 00:39:57,919
Speaker 3: I mean I go on Amazon right now and look

684
00:39:57,960 --> 00:40:00,680
Speaker 3: at all of the things that are not un available.

685
00:40:00,960 --> 00:40:01,920
Speaker 2: It's kind of shocking.

686
00:40:02,520 --> 00:40:05,040
Speaker 3: I mean you can literally anyone watching this right now

687
00:40:05,120 --> 00:40:07,239
Speaker 3: should be should be doing that as an experiment, and

688
00:40:07,560 --> 00:40:10,520
Speaker 3: you will see that it turns out that disrupting supply

689
00:40:10,600 --> 00:40:15,239
Speaker 3: chain really really matters. So but outside of that, a

690
00:40:15,400 --> 00:40:18,480
Speaker 3: ten percent hit is not going to make people re

691
00:40:18,640 --> 00:40:22,239
Speaker 3: shore of the United States. The US is too expensive

692
00:40:22,320 --> 00:40:27,040
Speaker 3: for that. So reshoring on the basis of what Trump

693
00:40:27,120 --> 00:40:33,520
Speaker 3: has already announced and then pulled back on is not happening.

694
00:40:33,560 --> 00:40:35,600
Speaker 2: That's clearly not the proximate goal.

695
00:40:36,160 --> 00:40:38,520
Speaker 3: And that means that you as a company are going

696
00:40:38,600 --> 00:40:41,959
Speaker 3: to be paying those ten percent tariffs and as best

697
00:40:42,040 --> 00:40:45,319
Speaker 3: you can passing them on to your customers, which is

698
00:40:45,400 --> 00:40:48,080
Speaker 3: either consumers or its other businesses.

699
00:40:48,400 --> 00:40:50,719
Speaker 2: And that's what's happening. That's where we are.

700
00:40:50,760 --> 00:40:55,400
Speaker 3: And of course everyone is also lobbying, lobbying, lobbying, trying

701
00:40:55,440 --> 00:41:00,279
Speaker 3: to become an exception and an exemption for Trump, like Apple.

702
00:41:00,200 --> 00:41:01,600
Speaker 2: Just did, like Nvidia just did.

703
00:41:01,600 --> 00:41:04,000
Speaker 3: I mean, those were those were very well spent dollars

704
00:41:04,040 --> 00:41:05,280
Speaker 3: for those corporations.

705
00:41:05,360 --> 00:41:08,880
Speaker 1: Right, Well, that's where you use the word kleptocratic, you know,

706
00:41:09,000 --> 00:41:12,440
Speaker 1: sort of I've been saying we're we're moving towards a

707
00:41:12,480 --> 00:41:16,040
Speaker 1: kleptocracy because I've always said that why Trump really likes

708
00:41:16,040 --> 00:41:19,120
Speaker 1: tariffs is the control it puts him in. Right, he's

709
00:41:19,200 --> 00:41:21,680
Speaker 1: basically the deal maker for every industry and the deal

710
00:41:21,760 --> 00:41:24,680
Speaker 1: maker for every country. That is not the intent of

711
00:41:24,719 --> 00:41:26,600
Speaker 1: the founders. And this is we can I'm not going

712
00:41:26,640 --> 00:41:28,000
Speaker 1: to make We're not going to go down this road.

713
00:41:28,040 --> 00:41:31,560
Speaker 1: But Congress, you know is you know, we're if the

714
00:41:31,600 --> 00:41:34,799
Speaker 1: American economy is destroyed. It's Congress's fault, right, they gave

715
00:41:34,840 --> 00:41:38,319
Speaker 1: too much authority to the to the executive branch. But

716
00:41:39,520 --> 00:41:44,880
Speaker 1: if if that's indeed the case, then I mean, what's

717
00:41:44,880 --> 00:41:48,040
Speaker 1: a good outcome from the United States if we're not reshoring.

718
00:41:51,480 --> 00:41:55,279
Speaker 3: A good outcome of the United States is one where

719
00:41:55,280 --> 00:41:58,720
Speaker 3: people believe in the American market long term.

720
00:41:59,560 --> 00:42:01,279
Speaker 1: I mean, the they're willing to put up with just

721
00:42:01,320 --> 00:42:03,880
Speaker 1: whatever hurdles Donald Trump puts in front of them.

722
00:42:04,200 --> 00:42:08,400
Speaker 3: Well, again, unfortunately, given what we've seen over the last

723
00:42:08,440 --> 00:42:10,919
Speaker 3: few weeks, and there's no reason to believe that that's

724
00:42:10,960 --> 00:42:13,480
Speaker 3: going to stop in the next couple of years.

725
00:42:14,480 --> 00:42:16,520
Speaker 2: The damage is going to be massive.

726
00:42:17,120 --> 00:42:21,480
Speaker 3: But it is massive damage in the context of Europe

727
00:42:21,480 --> 00:42:25,600
Speaker 3: that is massively overregulated and now they're saying they want

728
00:42:25,600 --> 00:42:27,799
Speaker 3: to cut back on red tape and regulation. But how

729
00:42:27,840 --> 00:42:29,799
Speaker 3: long is that going to take? And how much can

730
00:42:29,840 --> 00:42:33,120
Speaker 3: they do from a much poorer base and no growth

731
00:42:33,160 --> 00:42:36,640
Speaker 3: and no entrepreneurship and no unicorns, virtually no unicorns in

732
00:42:36,680 --> 00:42:40,759
Speaker 3: the in the continent. And China, which you know continues

733
00:42:40,800 --> 00:42:43,799
Speaker 3: to be state controlled and is much poorer or much

734
00:42:43,840 --> 00:42:46,920
Speaker 3: poorer even than Europe, and yes, has a large market,

735
00:42:47,400 --> 00:42:50,719
Speaker 3: but also has no rule of law, has no independent judiciary,

736
00:42:51,040 --> 00:42:53,920
Speaker 3: you know, has no ability to redress. If you annoy

737
00:42:54,000 --> 00:42:56,400
Speaker 3: someone in government, you might as well pack up, right,

738
00:42:56,440 --> 00:42:59,000
Speaker 3: You're in serious trouble. So, I mean, it's not like

739
00:42:59,080 --> 00:43:03,720
Speaker 3: there are great options and alternatives to the US which

740
00:43:03,960 --> 00:43:07,480
Speaker 3: does give the Americans the ability to screw up more.

741
00:43:08,040 --> 00:43:12,280
Speaker 3: And yet it can't be screwing up on every front simultaneously.

742
00:43:12,360 --> 00:43:15,560
Speaker 3: So if Trump was just going to put in ten

743
00:43:15,600 --> 00:43:18,239
Speaker 3: percent tariffs on everybody and say you guys have to

744
00:43:18,280 --> 00:43:20,520
Speaker 3: pay it because I'm more powerful, he could have gotten

745
00:43:20,560 --> 00:43:21,800
Speaker 3: away with that very easily.

746
00:43:21,840 --> 00:43:22,399
Speaker 2: That would have been.

747
00:43:22,440 --> 00:43:25,440
Speaker 1: Done nothing else right, and then use that money, you know,

748
00:43:25,520 --> 00:43:28,200
Speaker 1: he's one wants to use that money to offset you know,

749
00:43:28,280 --> 00:43:29,480
Speaker 1: his tax cut and some other.

750
00:43:29,360 --> 00:43:31,360
Speaker 3: Things tax cuts for example. He could have used it

751
00:43:31,360 --> 00:43:34,680
Speaker 3: as budgetary help, you know, or even could have done

752
00:43:34,719 --> 00:43:37,080
Speaker 3: that and not offset tax could have said I'm not

753
00:43:37,120 --> 00:43:39,480
Speaker 3: doing the tax cuts. Instead, I'm going to you know,

754
00:43:39,560 --> 00:43:42,719
Speaker 3: sort of provide support for the farmers who are otherwise going.

755
00:43:42,680 --> 00:43:44,560
Speaker 1: To do the shriff money, and I'm going to give

756
00:43:44,560 --> 00:43:47,280
Speaker 1: a refund to you, the American worker, you know, whatever

757
00:43:47,280 --> 00:43:47,520
Speaker 1: it is.

758
00:43:47,680 --> 00:43:50,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, But of course when you're doing that and also

759
00:43:50,680 --> 00:43:55,879
Speaker 3: fighting on one hundred different fronts simultaneously, and you're undermining

760
00:43:55,920 --> 00:43:59,080
Speaker 3: American credibility. Even with that massive lead that we have,

761
00:43:59,280 --> 00:44:02,360
Speaker 3: especially most pandemic, the fact is that you're going to

762
00:44:02,440 --> 00:44:06,520
Speaker 3: cause massive, long term structural damage to the position of

763
00:44:06,560 --> 00:44:08,440
Speaker 3: the United States. And that's so when you asked me

764
00:44:08,520 --> 00:44:11,560
Speaker 3: right at the beginning, like, is permanent damage being done? Yeah,

765
00:44:11,719 --> 00:44:14,479
Speaker 3: not that much short term damage being done, but there's

766
00:44:14,560 --> 00:44:17,160
Speaker 3: so much permanent, long term damage being done, which I

767
00:44:17,200 --> 00:44:20,160
Speaker 3: mean Trump's seventy eight. He cares about himself. You know,

768
00:44:20,200 --> 00:44:22,399
Speaker 3: he's not particularly strategic. He doesn't have you know, sort

769
00:44:22,400 --> 00:44:26,520
Speaker 3: of a it doesn't spend his attention span is limited.

770
00:44:26,840 --> 00:44:28,319
Speaker 3: But you know, for those of us that are going

771
00:44:28,400 --> 00:44:30,359
Speaker 3: to be here for longer than that, it's a real

772
00:44:30,400 --> 00:44:31,120
Speaker 3: pain in the ass.

773
00:44:31,640 --> 00:44:34,200
Speaker 1: The rise of anti American sentiment. I was at a

774
00:44:34,400 --> 00:44:39,560
Speaker 1: meeting last week with some C suite folks who are

775
00:44:39,560 --> 00:44:42,719
Speaker 1: getting a briefing on this, and early survey work that

776
00:44:42,800 --> 00:44:45,239
Speaker 1: there's clear rise in this and these companies who do

777
00:44:45,320 --> 00:44:49,719
Speaker 1: business overseas but are known as basically American, you know,

778
00:44:49,719 --> 00:44:53,960
Speaker 1: associated as an American brand, are suddenly having to navigate this.

779
00:44:54,440 --> 00:44:57,000
Speaker 1: What are you telling folks about this issue? And you

780
00:44:57,120 --> 00:44:58,960
Speaker 1: just expected to get worse all over the world.

781
00:44:59,280 --> 00:45:01,840
Speaker 3: Again, not the first time this has been a problem

782
00:45:01,880 --> 00:45:06,640
Speaker 3: for Americans and American companies, but it is unprecedented the

783
00:45:06,760 --> 00:45:10,760
Speaker 3: level of anti americanism we're seeing, even among our closest friends,

784
00:45:10,760 --> 00:45:15,000
Speaker 3: the Canadians, that this is driving out when you're crazy,

785
00:45:15,080 --> 00:45:17,120
Speaker 3: the nicest people on at all.

786
00:45:17,200 --> 00:45:19,640
Speaker 1: Right, the nicest people on earth are doing the national anthem.

787
00:45:19,640 --> 00:45:23,280
Speaker 1: You're like, I always have that. I had a colleague

788
00:45:23,280 --> 00:45:25,480
Speaker 1: of mine who i away, who always saw the sunny

789
00:45:25,480 --> 00:45:27,960
Speaker 1: side of things, and I'm like, when he sees something negative,

790
00:45:28,160 --> 00:45:30,640
Speaker 1: it means you've got a problem. If the Canadians are

791
00:45:30,640 --> 00:45:32,480
Speaker 1: booing you, it's time for self reflection.

792
00:45:32,719 --> 00:45:33,920
Speaker 2: It's time for self reflection.

793
00:45:34,040 --> 00:45:36,440
Speaker 3: It is is really Stu Ben Shapiro came out very

794
00:45:36,520 --> 00:45:38,839
Speaker 3: strongly and said, look, Trump, this is an own goal.

795
00:45:39,239 --> 00:45:40,880
Speaker 2: You need to patch things up to the Canadians.

796
00:45:40,880 --> 00:45:43,319
Speaker 3: He refused to do it, So, I mean, you know,

797
00:45:43,400 --> 00:45:46,839
Speaker 3: this is this is a big mistake. But it's also

798
00:45:46,920 --> 00:45:51,200
Speaker 3: a big mistake to be going after students that are

799
00:45:51,560 --> 00:45:55,960
Speaker 3: you know, certainly no more radicalized than you know eighty

800
00:45:56,000 --> 00:45:56,880
Speaker 3: percent of the campuses.

801
00:45:56,920 --> 00:45:59,400
Speaker 1: Well, I've always thought the First Amendment applied to anybody

802
00:45:59,480 --> 00:46:01,840
Speaker 1: in this country at any given moment. You know, you

803
00:46:01,880 --> 00:46:04,719
Speaker 1: didn't have to be a citizen to freedoms. That this

804
00:46:04,880 --> 00:46:08,799
Speaker 1: idea that only citizens get the First Amendment protection of

805
00:46:08,840 --> 00:46:12,080
Speaker 1: the First Amendment, that would not be a small de democracy.

806
00:46:12,520 --> 00:46:16,040
Speaker 3: Sorry, well, I mean people, These are the smartest kids

807
00:46:16,080 --> 00:46:18,960
Speaker 3: from all over the world that have worked their asses

808
00:46:19,000 --> 00:46:21,200
Speaker 3: off with support from their families, who are paying full

809
00:46:21,239 --> 00:46:24,960
Speaker 3: tuition to get to the United States, to spend time

810
00:46:25,080 --> 00:46:28,440
Speaker 3: here and to learn something not just from the top universities,

811
00:46:28,440 --> 00:46:31,960
Speaker 3: but also about the American system. And we are poisoning

812
00:46:32,400 --> 00:46:38,000
Speaker 3: them for a generation. We are freezing the interest of

813
00:46:38,160 --> 00:46:41,120
Speaker 3: others to come here where we should want them.

814
00:46:41,239 --> 00:46:45,759
Speaker 1: Small business owner, small business owner in Nigeria where maybe

815
00:46:45,800 --> 00:46:48,720
Speaker 1: they're just starting to export stuff to the United States

816
00:46:48,760 --> 00:46:50,239
Speaker 1: and we've just bankrupted them.

817
00:46:50,680 --> 00:46:52,680
Speaker 2: Yeah yeah, So why would we want to do that.

818
00:46:52,719 --> 00:46:55,840
Speaker 3: Why do we want to freeze tourism from Europe or

819
00:46:55,880 --> 00:46:57,480
Speaker 3: from Canada or from other countries.

820
00:46:57,520 --> 00:47:00,000
Speaker 1: Well, you know it gets hurt the most with Canadian tourists,

821
00:47:00,120 --> 00:47:04,080
Speaker 1: them being frozen the state of Florida. This is a

822
00:47:04,080 --> 00:47:05,920
Speaker 1: big you know, I've been waiting for some Florida, i

823
00:47:05,960 --> 00:47:10,920
Speaker 1: mean Canadian tourism to Florida is huge, huge, It's a.

824
00:47:10,880 --> 00:47:13,319
Speaker 3: Big I mean, I've been I'm from Boston originally, so

825
00:47:13,480 --> 00:47:16,400
Speaker 3: I've I've heard a lot of you know, the main stories,

826
00:47:16,800 --> 00:47:20,000
Speaker 3: the main story to be basically shut down. I've got

827
00:47:20,040 --> 00:47:22,120
Speaker 3: friends that are, you know, getting ready. I'm going to

828
00:47:22,160 --> 00:47:26,000
Speaker 3: Boston to see the family for Easter, and uh, you know,

829
00:47:26,640 --> 00:47:30,239
Speaker 3: this is also Boston Marathon weekend. I was stunned that

830
00:47:30,400 --> 00:47:33,759
Speaker 3: not only were there like lots of hotels available, but

831
00:47:33,840 --> 00:47:35,160
Speaker 3: the prices weren't crazy.

832
00:47:35,200 --> 00:47:36,640
Speaker 2: I'm like, what the hell is going on? Oh yeah,

833
00:47:36,640 --> 00:47:37,280
Speaker 2: that's what's happening.

834
00:47:37,320 --> 00:47:40,560
Speaker 3: People aren't coming, right, They're not coming, and so this

835
00:47:40,680 --> 00:47:42,640
Speaker 3: is I mean, you think that this doesn't have an

836
00:47:42,640 --> 00:47:46,600
Speaker 3: impact on the US at every level, you know, whether

837
00:47:46,680 --> 00:47:49,560
Speaker 3: it's the workers in these businesses or it's the shareholders

838
00:47:49,560 --> 00:47:53,680
Speaker 3: and all of these things, they have knock on implications

839
00:47:53,680 --> 00:47:55,720
Speaker 3: that are going to hurt us.

840
00:47:57,760 --> 00:47:59,799
Speaker 1: Can you address something here? You know, one of the

841
00:47:59,840 --> 00:48:02,240
Speaker 1: things that I think is the biggest misnomer of NAFTA.

842
00:48:03,000 --> 00:48:06,480
Speaker 1: It is true that NAFTA did a big did real

843
00:48:06,560 --> 00:48:11,480
Speaker 1: damage as far as the what happened to the industrial Midwest. Okay,

844
00:48:11,880 --> 00:48:15,200
Speaker 1: they were hurt the most, but you know who benefited

845
00:48:15,800 --> 00:48:20,000
Speaker 1: the most in this country was the Sunbelt, the sunbell

846
00:48:20,080 --> 00:48:22,480
Speaker 1: in general, the sun Belt specifically. I go to Alabama,

847
00:48:22,520 --> 00:48:25,040
Speaker 1: South Carolina, Tennessee. We can talk about the state of Texas,

848
00:48:25,080 --> 00:48:27,399
Speaker 1: state of Arizona. You know, this is one of those

849
00:48:27,440 --> 00:48:31,480
Speaker 1: cases where it's it's not you know, Donald Trump is

850
00:48:31,480 --> 00:48:34,680
Speaker 1: so focused on trying to repair the damage in the

851
00:48:34,719 --> 00:48:38,680
Speaker 1: northern States that everything he's doing is actually going to

852
00:48:38,800 --> 00:48:44,080
Speaker 1: damage his some of his base red states economically in

853
00:48:44,120 --> 00:48:46,799
Speaker 1: the South. Am I misreading this or is this? I

854
00:48:46,840 --> 00:48:51,239
Speaker 1: mean it? You know, you take take the Mercedes and

855
00:48:51,480 --> 00:48:55,399
Speaker 1: BMW factories that are all over the South, a lot

856
00:48:55,400 --> 00:49:00,719
Speaker 1: of Japanese auto you know, that's not going to that's

857
00:49:00,760 --> 00:49:03,359
Speaker 1: going to that's not going to be a good thing

858
00:49:03,400 --> 00:49:06,399
Speaker 1: with all these tariffs here. It's not It's not like Thoses.

859
00:49:06,760 --> 00:49:08,920
Speaker 1: The Mexicans do understand the government.

860
00:49:09,320 --> 00:49:12,279
Speaker 3: I mean, Claudia Scheinbaum has I think her eighty six

861
00:49:12,400 --> 00:49:17,160
Speaker 3: percent approval ratings right now, her Marina Party has done

862
00:49:17,160 --> 00:49:20,960
Speaker 3: nothing but win since they've been founded, and she's got

863
00:49:20,960 --> 00:49:24,800
Speaker 3: that's a constitutional majority, so she can do whatever she wants,

864
00:49:25,200 --> 00:49:28,839
Speaker 3: and she wants to fix this with the Americans, right

865
00:49:28,960 --> 00:49:31,680
Speaker 3: and that's why I mean they've been doing very little

866
00:49:31,840 --> 00:49:35,799
Speaker 3: on fentanyl, and now suddenly they're actually engaged in all

867
00:49:35,840 --> 00:49:38,000
Speaker 3: these raids. Why weren't they doing that over the last

868
00:49:38,080 --> 00:49:40,040
Speaker 3: five years, Well because no one was forcing them to

869
00:49:40,440 --> 00:49:43,960
Speaker 3: far fewer people coming across the border illegally. A lot

870
00:49:44,000 --> 00:49:46,279
Speaker 3: of that is the Americans saying, you know, we're going

871
00:49:46,320 --> 00:49:48,719
Speaker 3: to send you del Salvador. But but some of it

872
00:49:48,800 --> 00:49:53,160
Speaker 3: is the Mexicans actually tightening up on security and asking

873
00:49:53,280 --> 00:49:57,440
Speaker 3: and getting more cooperation from the Americans, drone surveillance, over flight,

874
00:49:57,480 --> 00:49:59,879
Speaker 3: all of this kind of thing. They the Mexicans are

875
00:50:00,120 --> 00:50:04,600
Speaker 3: now cracking down on transhipment from China through Mexico into

876
00:50:04,600 --> 00:50:07,480
Speaker 3: the United States, which hasn't helped the Mexican economy very much,

877
00:50:07,600 --> 00:50:10,120
Speaker 3: hasn't led to many jobs, has hurt their own small

878
00:50:10,160 --> 00:50:13,160
Speaker 3: and medium enterprises on textiles, on their low end manufacture.

879
00:50:13,440 --> 00:50:17,200
Speaker 3: So I think I agree with everything you're saying, but

880
00:50:17,320 --> 00:50:21,160
Speaker 3: I'm not as worried about that because the Mexicans, unlike

881
00:50:21,239 --> 00:50:23,680
Speaker 3: so many other countries in the world, have truly no

882
00:50:23,800 --> 00:50:26,880
Speaker 3: other options with the United States. So on that front,

883
00:50:27,239 --> 00:50:29,640
Speaker 3: I firmly expect that there will be a deal, and

884
00:50:29,680 --> 00:50:33,359
Speaker 3: you've probably seen that even Howard Lutnik, who has been

885
00:50:33,400 --> 00:50:38,160
Speaker 3: by far the least capable in presenting a coherent American

886
00:50:38,239 --> 00:50:43,520
Speaker 3: economic perspective to the public, has been saying, actually, we

887
00:50:43,560 --> 00:50:45,600
Speaker 3: think the Mexicans are doing a pretty good job here.

888
00:50:45,640 --> 00:50:47,560
Speaker 2: They're pretty constructive. We're going to get something done.

889
00:50:47,600 --> 00:50:51,560
Speaker 3: That is I think an accurate reflection of the conversations

890
00:50:51,560 --> 00:50:52,320
Speaker 3: that are being haled.

891
00:50:52,600 --> 00:50:54,520
Speaker 1: But I guess what I'm getting at here is that

892
00:50:54,600 --> 00:50:57,280
Speaker 1: every you know, as he's trying to repair the industrial

893
00:50:57,320 --> 00:51:01,680
Speaker 1: Midwestern economy, he's simultaneously hurting the sun Belt and essentially

894
00:51:01,719 --> 00:51:02,640
Speaker 1: coastal economies.

895
00:51:03,120 --> 00:51:07,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, but I mean again, his intention is not to

896
00:51:07,560 --> 00:51:11,120
Speaker 3: damage everything. His intention is I'm the most powerful, So

897
00:51:11,320 --> 00:51:13,000
Speaker 3: I'm just gonna hit all these guys in the face

898
00:51:13,000 --> 00:51:14,560
Speaker 3: and they're all going to come back, and they're gonna

899
00:51:14,560 --> 00:51:16,520
Speaker 3: give me big, beautiful deals, and I'm gonna look brilliant

900
00:51:16,560 --> 00:51:18,400
Speaker 3: because Biden was so weak and I'm the guy that

901
00:51:18,480 --> 00:51:21,719
Speaker 3: stands up. And what he doesn't realize is that if

902
00:51:21,760 --> 00:51:23,799
Speaker 3: you don't get those deals done the way you want

903
00:51:23,800 --> 00:51:25,600
Speaker 3: them to, because you're fighting with too many people and

904
00:51:25,640 --> 00:51:27,840
Speaker 3: you don't have that much power, other countries do have

905
00:51:27,960 --> 00:51:30,200
Speaker 3: leverage against you. And if they don't like you, they

906
00:51:30,239 --> 00:51:32,280
Speaker 3: won't be as nice to you, even if it's against

907
00:51:32,280 --> 00:51:35,680
Speaker 3: their interests because they have domestic political constraints, like in Canada,

908
00:51:35,800 --> 00:51:39,359
Speaker 3: like in Europe other places. All of those things end

909
00:51:39,440 --> 00:51:42,120
Speaker 3: up hurting all sorts of players inside the United States,

910
00:51:43,040 --> 00:51:45,719
Speaker 3: including the Sun Belt for example, in the US.

911
00:51:45,880 --> 00:51:48,719
Speaker 1: Look, we've gone nearly forty minutes on these tariffs, and

912
00:51:48,760 --> 00:51:50,480
Speaker 1: I wanted it. I want I'm going to do a

913
00:51:50,520 --> 00:51:51,960
Speaker 1: bit of a speed round with you to get you

914
00:51:52,000 --> 00:51:57,440
Speaker 1: out of here in under an hour. Just quickly, let's

915
00:51:57,440 --> 00:52:03,560
Speaker 1: talk Aron and these direct talks. You seem pretty bullish

916
00:52:03,880 --> 00:52:08,080
Speaker 1: that Trump's looking at Trum. You know, there's some negotiations

917
00:52:08,120 --> 00:52:09,719
Speaker 1: he does where he doesn't want to get to yes,

918
00:52:10,160 --> 00:52:12,160
Speaker 1: and there are some negotiations where he does want to

919
00:52:12,160 --> 00:52:14,840
Speaker 1: get to yes. You're pretty bullish that you think this

920
00:52:14,960 --> 00:52:17,520
Speaker 1: is a negotiation he wants to get to yes.

921
00:52:18,040 --> 00:52:18,239
Speaker 2: Yep.

922
00:52:18,280 --> 00:52:22,919
Speaker 4: And in fact it will be a deal that Israel hates. Yeah,

923
00:52:22,960 --> 00:52:26,480
Speaker 4: it certainly dislikes, maybe hates. Well, they try to undermine

924
00:52:26,480 --> 00:52:28,960
Speaker 4: it the way they did undermine Barack Obama.

925
00:52:29,760 --> 00:52:32,040
Speaker 3: Uh, they're going to be more reluctant to try to

926
00:52:32,120 --> 00:52:35,239
Speaker 3: undermine it. You saw the way that Trump acted with

927
00:52:35,360 --> 00:52:38,160
Speaker 3: the Israeli Prime Minister in the Oval Office. I mean

928
00:52:38,200 --> 00:52:41,400
Speaker 3: it was a much politer affair than Zelenski and the

929
00:52:41,560 --> 00:52:42,319
Speaker 3: ord treated him.

930
00:52:43,360 --> 00:52:45,560
Speaker 1: He treated him like a subordinate, no doubt of Yeah.

931
00:52:45,560 --> 00:52:49,360
Speaker 3: And by the way, about freaking time, given how the

932
00:52:49,440 --> 00:52:53,879
Speaker 3: Israeli PM runs ragged over American leaders, So I give

933
00:52:53,880 --> 00:52:57,120
Speaker 3: Trump full marks on that. Actually, I mean, look, if

934
00:52:57,160 --> 00:52:59,240
Speaker 3: we're going to criticize them when he does something stupid,

935
00:52:59,239 --> 00:53:00,400
Speaker 3: we I mean.

936
00:53:00,560 --> 00:53:03,280
Speaker 1: That's the frustrating thing with Trump right here is about

937
00:53:03,280 --> 00:53:06,480
Speaker 1: twenty to twenty five percent of his tactics. So you're like,

938
00:53:06,480 --> 00:53:08,160
Speaker 1: you know what that is the tactic to use here,

939
00:53:08,719 --> 00:53:10,840
Speaker 1: it's just seventy percent of his tactics are a mistake.

940
00:53:10,880 --> 00:53:13,400
Speaker 2: But there are times jumping down. I don't know the

941
00:53:13,440 --> 00:53:15,359
Speaker 2: bullet China percentage in my head.

942
00:53:15,360 --> 00:53:18,320
Speaker 3: But since you're asking me about Iran, Yes, and Iran,

943
00:53:18,480 --> 00:53:21,360
Speaker 3: he understands, he sends his weakness. He knows that Iran

944
00:53:21,480 --> 00:53:24,319
Speaker 3: is in a horrible position. He also was the one

945
00:53:24,320 --> 00:53:26,279
Speaker 3: that was deciding I'm going to go ahead with these

946
00:53:26,320 --> 00:53:29,040
Speaker 3: attacks on the houthis You remember Vice President Pence was

947
00:53:29,320 --> 00:53:32,640
Speaker 3: advanced We'll say, don't do it, don't do a single gate. Now,

948
00:53:32,680 --> 00:53:35,759
Speaker 3: a few weeks in the Huthis are suing for peace.

949
00:53:35,760 --> 00:53:38,960
Speaker 3: They're saying, look, if you just stop, we will stop

950
00:53:39,040 --> 00:53:41,160
Speaker 3: hitting all of these ships that are going through.

951
00:53:41,680 --> 00:53:44,160
Speaker 2: Okay, where was that in the Biden administration?

952
00:53:44,280 --> 00:53:44,520
Speaker 1: Right?

953
00:53:44,640 --> 00:53:45,279
Speaker 2: So I mean you.

954
00:53:45,400 --> 00:53:50,560
Speaker 3: Now Iran is losing all of their proxies across the region.

955
00:53:50,880 --> 00:53:53,520
Speaker 3: They certainly don't have the military capability to do any

956
00:53:53,560 --> 00:53:57,080
Speaker 3: real damage to Israel, and so the Americans are saying, look,

957
00:53:57,400 --> 00:53:59,600
Speaker 3: you better take a deal. And it's going to be

958
00:53:59,600 --> 00:54:02,920
Speaker 3: a bigger deal than the Iranian nucleudeo, the JCPOA and Rabob,

959
00:54:02,920 --> 00:54:06,480
Speaker 3: because otherwise we're going to give Israel all the military

960
00:54:06,520 --> 00:54:10,680
Speaker 3: capability to really really destroy you. Well, and I see

961
00:54:10,719 --> 00:54:12,840
Speaker 3: the member the Supreme Leader came out a couple of

962
00:54:12,840 --> 00:54:14,279
Speaker 3: weeks ago and said, I don't even want to talk

963
00:54:14,320 --> 00:54:14,680
Speaker 3: to try.

964
00:54:14,719 --> 00:54:17,640
Speaker 2: I know now they're talking directly. So so far this

965
00:54:17,680 --> 00:54:18,399
Speaker 2: look's pretty good.

966
00:54:18,600 --> 00:54:20,839
Speaker 1: And we know Trump's tight with all the Gulf state

967
00:54:20,920 --> 00:54:22,799
Speaker 1: leaders and they want them to cut a deal, and.

968
00:54:22,760 --> 00:54:25,239
Speaker 2: They want them to at every one of them wants

969
00:54:25,320 --> 00:54:25,719
Speaker 2: him to cut it.

970
00:54:25,760 --> 00:54:31,239
Speaker 1: Do that feels right? Okay, that feels right Turkey. Look,

971
00:54:31,320 --> 00:54:34,799
Speaker 1: I'll be honest, I've been just as a citizen ashamed

972
00:54:34,920 --> 00:54:37,640
Speaker 1: that the United States has basically turned the other way

973
00:54:37,880 --> 00:54:40,880
Speaker 1: watching what areed Iwana has done to his political opponents

974
00:54:40,920 --> 00:54:43,239
Speaker 1: and what he's doing there. You know, Turkey, you were.

975
00:54:43,160 --> 00:54:45,279
Speaker 2: A European citizen, you'd feel the same way.

976
00:54:45,800 --> 00:54:48,439
Speaker 1: Good, well, that's I guess good to hear, but also

977
00:54:48,560 --> 00:54:54,000
Speaker 1: frustrating the worlds. The world has really not been they've

978
00:54:54,000 --> 00:54:55,759
Speaker 1: not been that ashamed of this, and I don't know

979
00:54:55,800 --> 00:54:59,120
Speaker 1: why that is the case, other than there's exhaustion out

980
00:54:59,120 --> 00:55:01,120
Speaker 1: there when it comes to the Roe democracy movement. I

981
00:55:01,160 --> 00:55:06,560
Speaker 1: get that, but uh, it sounds like Erdawan is going

982
00:55:06,600 --> 00:55:07,200
Speaker 1: to get away with it.

983
00:55:08,040 --> 00:55:10,560
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, oh yeah, it does sound that way.

984
00:55:10,960 --> 00:55:13,000
Speaker 3: I mean, he's arrested the guy that was read before

985
00:55:13,000 --> 00:55:14,839
Speaker 3: he was going to run for president, the one guy

986
00:55:14,840 --> 00:55:17,160
Speaker 3: that could actually beat him in an open democratic election,

987
00:55:17,280 --> 00:55:19,360
Speaker 3: and he made it the Turkey.

988
00:55:19,360 --> 00:55:22,040
Speaker 1: I always say this with Turkey, Turkey, the elections themselves

989
00:55:22,239 --> 00:55:24,279
Speaker 1: are not rigged. It's just everything else is.

990
00:55:24,960 --> 00:55:28,719
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, the judiciary, all the rest.

991
00:55:28,719 --> 00:55:31,440
Speaker 3: I mean, you know, there's been some some instances of

992
00:55:31,520 --> 00:55:34,680
Speaker 3: ballot stuffing and the rest, but generally speaking, it's more

993
00:55:34,719 --> 00:55:37,480
Speaker 3: about what you do to get to that point as

994
00:55:37,480 --> 00:55:38,920
Speaker 3: opposed to what the Iranians.

995
00:55:38,960 --> 00:55:41,320
Speaker 1: Do you know they decided to get to run, right.

996
00:55:41,239 --> 00:55:41,719
Speaker 2: That's right.

997
00:55:43,520 --> 00:55:46,160
Speaker 3: And remember the last election iron was actually a surprise.

998
00:55:46,840 --> 00:55:50,080
Speaker 3: The president was more of a moderate that was not expected.

999
00:55:50,200 --> 00:55:52,280
Speaker 1: One would not have won this election at the mayor

1000
00:55:52,440 --> 00:55:55,880
Speaker 1: be his tray, right, he would mean that's that's crystal clear.

1001
00:55:56,239 --> 00:55:59,440
Speaker 1: That's now we assume he narrowly wins. This my guest, Look,

1002
00:55:59,480 --> 00:56:02,640
Speaker 1: when you try it suppressed something like this, it doesn't

1003
00:56:02,760 --> 00:56:04,960
Speaker 1: always accrue to your benefit. I mean, there's got to

1004
00:56:05,000 --> 00:56:06,239
Speaker 1: be some risk he could lose here.

1005
00:56:06,360 --> 00:56:09,760
Speaker 3: This is the China argument, which I am increasingly taking

1006
00:56:09,760 --> 00:56:11,680
Speaker 3: the other side of which is not good. So, I

1007
00:56:11,760 --> 00:56:14,440
Speaker 3: mean there's a much broader question here about whether or not,

1008
00:56:15,160 --> 00:56:20,880
Speaker 3: given the nature of advanced technologies, whether our present democratic

1009
00:56:20,920 --> 00:56:23,520
Speaker 3: systems are actually fit for purpose. And I want them

1010
00:56:23,560 --> 00:56:26,360
Speaker 3: to be, but I fear they increasingly are not.

1011
00:56:27,840 --> 00:56:31,160
Speaker 1: What should respect out of South Korea with their political

1012
00:56:31,200 --> 00:56:35,640
Speaker 1: turmoil right now, and in some ways is the global

1013
00:56:35,680 --> 00:56:40,960
Speaker 1: economic turmoil almost like a pretty good sobering moment for

1014
00:56:41,040 --> 00:56:43,600
Speaker 1: the South Korean electorate as they've got to be keeping

1015
00:56:43,640 --> 00:56:44,919
Speaker 1: their eye on the economic ball.

1016
00:56:45,960 --> 00:56:48,360
Speaker 3: You know what happened to them a few months ago

1017
00:56:49,040 --> 00:56:53,120
Speaker 3: when their president declared martial law for like a few hours,

1018
00:56:53,160 --> 00:56:56,200
Speaker 3: and it was shambalic and it was out of Siborne,

1019
00:56:56,200 --> 00:56:57,200
Speaker 3: out of insecurity, know.

1020
00:56:57,160 --> 00:56:59,000
Speaker 1: What it felt like. It felt like. Do you remember

1021
00:56:59,640 --> 00:57:03,680
Speaker 1: there was a there was a spoof movie way back

1022
00:57:03,719 --> 00:57:08,120
Speaker 1: when with Richard Dreyfus pretending to be a dictator. It

1023
00:57:08,200 --> 00:57:11,000
Speaker 1: was called Pandora or something like that, Moon over Parador.

1024
00:57:11,680 --> 00:57:13,040
Speaker 1: It was a made up country, but it was just

1025
00:57:13,080 --> 00:57:15,719
Speaker 1: sort of like somebody trying to play a strong man

1026
00:57:15,800 --> 00:57:18,040
Speaker 1: and just sort of flopped it. It was. It was more

1027
00:57:18,240 --> 00:57:20,400
Speaker 1: comic than sad. Yeah.

1028
00:57:20,520 --> 00:57:22,919
Speaker 3: Yeah, Well, keep in mind that he did not have

1029
00:57:23,920 --> 00:57:27,600
Speaker 3: a majority in their parliament, and so they were able to,

1030
00:57:27,760 --> 00:57:31,440
Speaker 3: like the devil and frustrate him on every front. I

1031
00:57:31,440 --> 00:57:35,440
Speaker 3: mean all sorts of investigations into his wife, into his

1032
00:57:35,560 --> 00:57:38,080
Speaker 3: cabinet members, some of which were clearly trumped up.

1033
00:57:38,840 --> 00:57:40,960
Speaker 2: They couldn't they couldn't pass his budget.

1034
00:57:41,000 --> 00:57:45,520
Speaker 3: Now, I mean, you know, nasty, dirty politics, but I

1035
00:57:45,520 --> 00:57:48,520
Speaker 3: mean certainly no justification for martial law.

1036
00:57:48,920 --> 00:57:50,840
Speaker 2: And he backed down. And now he's you know.

1037
00:57:51,120 --> 00:57:53,640
Speaker 3: Been impeached, and he's going to end up in jail

1038
00:57:54,480 --> 00:57:58,360
Speaker 3: and the next election will lead to the opposition party

1039
00:57:58,400 --> 00:58:01,960
Speaker 3: that controls Parliament also controlling the presidency, and that will

1040
00:58:02,000 --> 00:58:05,080
Speaker 3: be a much stronger South Korean government because you'll have

1041
00:58:05,160 --> 00:58:08,720
Speaker 3: both houses in a sense, you know, but both checks

1042
00:58:08,760 --> 00:58:09,720
Speaker 3: and balances, if you will.

1043
00:58:09,840 --> 00:58:10,920
Speaker 2: Rowing in the same direction.

1044
00:58:11,400 --> 00:58:15,000
Speaker 1: Brazil and France are both trying to do to their

1045
00:58:15,600 --> 00:58:20,439
Speaker 1: polarizing leaders on the right what many in the United

1046
00:58:20,480 --> 00:58:23,240
Speaker 1: States tried to do to Donald Trump and failed. And

1047
00:58:23,320 --> 00:58:27,280
Speaker 1: in many cases it's a spectacular failure because when you

1048
00:58:27,320 --> 00:58:29,520
Speaker 1: when you go for the king, you best not miss, right,

1049
00:58:29,600 --> 00:58:31,800
Speaker 1: and in the United States they missed. And we're now seeing,

1050
00:58:32,440 --> 00:58:35,280
Speaker 1: particularly with the grievance stuff and the targeting of all

1051
00:58:35,320 --> 00:58:38,440
Speaker 1: the different universities. Everything we're seeing here, this is retribution

1052
00:58:38,600 --> 00:58:43,160
Speaker 1: is a real thing here. What are the chances that

1053
00:58:43,840 --> 00:58:47,400
Speaker 1: you know, whether it's Bolsonaro in Brazil or Marie Le

1054
00:58:47,480 --> 00:58:52,800
Speaker 1: Penn in France, that these that these sentences stick and

1055
00:58:52,920 --> 00:58:56,240
Speaker 1: they get to move on or this well, this what

1056
00:58:56,360 --> 00:58:58,040
Speaker 1: we see a Trump effect in both countries.

1057
00:58:58,560 --> 00:59:04,520
Speaker 3: So in Brazil, zill the judiciary is much more politicized.

1058
00:59:05,400 --> 00:59:10,520
Speaker 3: They are willing to go after Bulsonnaro for political reasons, even.

1059
00:59:10,440 --> 00:59:13,240
Speaker 1: With the previous president who's the current president in jail

1060
00:59:13,240 --> 00:59:14,120
Speaker 1: once right.

1061
00:59:14,640 --> 00:59:18,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, But I mean, look, the fact is that he

1062
00:59:18,080 --> 00:59:24,200
Speaker 3: was supporting insurrection to overturn a democratic election in Brazil.

1063
00:59:25,000 --> 00:59:30,360
Speaker 3: He will end up suspended, not allowed to run for

1064
00:59:30,600 --> 00:59:34,440
Speaker 3: president next time around. That probably means that he goes

1065
00:59:35,320 --> 00:59:40,720
Speaker 3: for his son, who I mean will be popular because

1066
00:59:40,960 --> 00:59:41,320
Speaker 3: you know.

1067
00:59:41,720 --> 00:59:44,920
Speaker 1: It's complex, We know that stuff works to yeah, but

1068
00:59:45,080 --> 00:59:46,400
Speaker 1: I mean, is it a majority.

1069
00:59:46,440 --> 00:59:48,960
Speaker 3: We don't know, but it's not jaed bolscenario is is

1070
00:59:49,000 --> 00:59:50,280
Speaker 3: not going to be the next president.

1071
00:59:50,320 --> 00:59:55,480
Speaker 2: That's pretty clear. And you know in France this is uh.

1072
00:59:55,800 --> 00:59:59,480
Speaker 3: You know that this was a case that clearly there

1073
00:59:59,560 --> 01:00:06,520
Speaker 3: was a the justices were not acting politically. A strong

1074
01:00:06,640 --> 01:00:11,240
Speaker 3: majority of the French population believes that the charges should stick.

1075
01:00:11,720 --> 01:00:15,280
Speaker 3: The question will be whether or not during the period

1076
01:00:15,320 --> 01:00:19,360
Speaker 3: of her appeal she will still be allowed to run.

1077
01:00:19,720 --> 01:00:22,320
Speaker 3: As of now, the answer is no, but that is

1078
01:00:22,360 --> 01:00:24,960
Speaker 3: going to be appealed up to the Constitutional Court. If

1079
01:00:25,000 --> 01:00:27,160
Speaker 3: they decide she can run and she appeals through twenty

1080
01:00:27,200 --> 01:00:30,320
Speaker 3: twenty seven, which could easily happen, she could run and

1081
01:00:30,640 --> 01:00:31,240
Speaker 3: maybe win.

1082
01:00:31,960 --> 01:00:35,760
Speaker 1: So that is where we're heading right now. Let me

1083
01:00:35,800 --> 01:00:39,040
Speaker 1: close with what some folks may know you for best,

1084
01:00:39,040 --> 01:00:43,000
Speaker 1: which is when you do your annual list of risk

1085
01:00:43,040 --> 01:00:47,960
Speaker 1: assessments assessments for the globe. You had Trump up there

1086
01:00:47,960 --> 01:00:52,480
Speaker 1: pretty high as it was. Would we're not even one

1087
01:00:52,520 --> 01:00:55,280
Speaker 1: hundred days in, would you redo your list or would

1088
01:00:55,280 --> 01:00:55,680
Speaker 1: you keep it in?

1089
01:00:55,800 --> 01:00:59,080
Speaker 3: Well, the number one risk we put up was the

1090
01:00:59,200 --> 01:01:04,520
Speaker 3: G zero world wins, and the focus there was not

1091
01:01:04,800 --> 01:01:10,480
Speaker 3: on Trump specifically. The focus was on the United States

1092
01:01:11,080 --> 01:01:15,040
Speaker 3: undoing its own global order and no other country or

1093
01:01:15,120 --> 01:01:20,360
Speaker 3: groups of countries capable of standing in and taking that leadership.

1094
01:01:20,440 --> 01:01:23,040
Speaker 3: And I think that that was number one and deserves

1095
01:01:23,080 --> 01:01:26,959
Speaker 3: to be number one. And people underestimated just how much

1096
01:01:27,000 --> 01:01:30,480
Speaker 3: the old global order was prepared to fragment.

1097
01:01:31,600 --> 01:01:33,000
Speaker 2: They weren't you named.

1098
01:01:32,800 --> 01:01:35,200
Speaker 1: Your company G zero for a reason, right or your

1099
01:01:35,240 --> 01:01:36,200
Speaker 1: mediag seven?

1100
01:01:36,320 --> 01:01:38,840
Speaker 2: No G twenty, And I certainly don't want it.

1101
01:01:39,040 --> 01:01:41,440
Speaker 1: You were, but you were visioning you in many ways,

1102
01:01:41,480 --> 01:01:42,920
Speaker 1: you saw this coming years.

1103
01:01:42,720 --> 01:01:45,320
Speaker 3: Ago, ten years ago, twelve years ago. So I think

1104
01:01:45,360 --> 01:01:47,080
Speaker 3: that needed to be number one. It's not like we

1105
01:01:47,120 --> 01:01:49,880
Speaker 3: had a G zero related risk for the last five years.

1106
01:01:49,880 --> 01:01:51,280
Speaker 2: This was this year coming.

1107
01:01:51,720 --> 01:01:56,880
Speaker 3: But certainly, if you look at trade policy in the US,

1108
01:01:56,920 --> 01:01:58,880
Speaker 3: if you look at what we called rule of dawn

1109
01:01:58,920 --> 01:02:01,480
Speaker 3: as opposed to rule of law, if you look at

1110
01:02:01,480 --> 01:02:03,480
Speaker 3: the likelihood that US China was going to be in

1111
01:02:03,480 --> 01:02:07,920
Speaker 3: the much worse place. Yeah, and if anything, we should

1112
01:02:07,960 --> 01:02:12,720
Speaker 3: have been more alarmist than we were. Though again, at

1113
01:02:12,760 --> 01:02:15,120
Speaker 3: the time that we put it out, it was not

1114
01:02:15,240 --> 01:02:18,040
Speaker 3: priced in by the markets. It was not something at

1115
01:02:18,120 --> 01:02:18,959
Speaker 3: the supple point.

1116
01:02:19,000 --> 01:02:21,160
Speaker 1: Now it turned out to be. I think the biggest

1117
01:02:21,200 --> 01:02:25,600
Speaker 1: mistake people make is viewing a Trump policy or decision

1118
01:02:25,640 --> 01:02:26,919
Speaker 1: through the prism of the first term.

1119
01:02:27,200 --> 01:02:29,520
Speaker 2: Completely agree with you, Chuck, You've completely.

1120
01:02:29,200 --> 01:02:32,880
Speaker 1: Do that right now, and I you know, you just cannot.

1121
01:02:33,480 --> 01:02:36,360
Speaker 1: Russia and Ukraine. Is there a ceasefire this calendar year?

1122
01:02:38,760 --> 01:02:43,880
Speaker 2: There might be. Trump wants one and his It's funny.

1123
01:02:43,920 --> 01:02:48,560
Speaker 3: This is the issue, Chuck, where Trump's advisors have been

1124
01:02:49,000 --> 01:02:55,840
Speaker 3: most different publicly from Trump right, which is surprising with

1125
01:02:56,000 --> 01:02:57,080
Speaker 3: all of this loyalty.

1126
01:02:57,240 --> 01:02:59,680
Speaker 1: Rubyo has been critical of the Russians, and everybody's been like,

1127
01:03:00,360 --> 01:03:03,640
Speaker 1: it's obvious, it's obvious the Russians are the are the

1128
01:03:03,720 --> 01:03:07,200
Speaker 1: obstacle to peace. Right what Donald Trump wants, it's the

1129
01:03:07,320 --> 01:03:09,400
Speaker 1: Russians that have said now, the Ukrainians have gotten a

1130
01:03:09,440 --> 01:03:12,000
Speaker 1: yes seven thousand times, and Trump.

1131
01:03:11,840 --> 01:03:16,320
Speaker 3: Was willing to use the stick against Ukraine and effectively,

1132
01:03:16,640 --> 01:03:22,200
Speaker 3: like when he suspended intelligence and defense support, which he

1133
01:03:22,440 --> 01:03:24,960
Speaker 3: put back on but when he did it, the Ukrainians

1134
01:03:25,000 --> 01:03:27,880
Speaker 3: were like, Okay, we can't, we cannot make this. We

1135
01:03:28,000 --> 01:03:33,520
Speaker 3: will accept his ceasefire with no reservations, right, no conditions.

1136
01:03:33,880 --> 01:03:37,560
Speaker 2: But he hasn't been willing to personally do that to Russia,

1137
01:03:37,640 --> 01:03:40,800
Speaker 2: and and he's gonna have to if he wants to

1138
01:03:40,840 --> 01:03:44,200
Speaker 2: get a ceasefire. So let's see. I mean I think that.

1139
01:03:44,520 --> 01:03:47,880
Speaker 3: I mean, he's he has made a couple of comments,

1140
01:03:48,000 --> 01:03:52,040
Speaker 3: tentative comments about losing patients, but then he's backed away

1141
01:03:52,080 --> 01:03:53,440
Speaker 3: from them now, so there's.

1142
01:03:53,280 --> 01:03:58,120
Speaker 1: Something hoologize, apologize on behalf of the Russians for a mistake.

1143
01:03:59,240 --> 01:03:59,880
Speaker 1: Over the weekend.

1144
01:04:00,120 --> 01:04:04,120
Speaker 3: I mean it was I found that, especially on the

1145
01:04:04,160 --> 01:04:07,720
Speaker 3: back of Rubio and a number of Republican senators and

1146
01:04:07,760 --> 01:04:10,439
Speaker 3: even Rick Grinnell, I mean, a bunch of people were

1147
01:04:10,480 --> 01:04:13,960
Speaker 3: all publicly saying this is not just tragic, this is unacceptable.

1148
01:04:13,960 --> 01:04:14,760
Speaker 2: We have to stop this.

1149
01:04:15,360 --> 01:04:18,560
Speaker 3: Except for the President and Witkoff, you know, the Special

1150
01:04:18,720 --> 01:04:22,800
Speaker 3: Envoy has been closer to Trump on this, particularly when

1151
01:04:22,800 --> 01:04:24,320
Speaker 3: you saw the Tucker Carlson.

1152
01:04:24,000 --> 01:04:25,440
Speaker 2: Interview, which he doesn't advised.

1153
01:04:25,840 --> 01:04:27,600
Speaker 1: I mean, this is where wit Coft's not his own

1154
01:04:27,600 --> 01:04:30,560
Speaker 1: man here, wit cough if he doesn't espouse. What Trump wants,

1155
01:04:30,600 --> 01:04:31,840
Speaker 1: they'll be a different envoy.

1156
01:04:32,240 --> 01:04:33,320
Speaker 2: I get it, but he's done.

1157
01:04:33,440 --> 01:04:37,920
Speaker 3: He's been very effective despite that in his engagements with

1158
01:04:38,040 --> 01:04:41,960
Speaker 3: the Gulf States and Israel on the ground on a

1159
01:04:42,000 --> 01:04:43,000
Speaker 3: bunch of different top.

1160
01:04:43,480 --> 01:04:45,400
Speaker 1: I think it's just they know he speaks for Trump.

1161
01:04:45,480 --> 01:04:48,960
Speaker 1: I mean, in fairness, like in that case he is

1162
01:04:49,000 --> 01:04:51,520
Speaker 1: the Secretary of State, because Rubio doesn't always speak Trump.

1163
01:04:51,840 --> 01:04:54,440
Speaker 3: But I'm just saying that he has not been equally

1164
01:04:54,600 --> 01:04:58,240
Speaker 3: effective on Russia Ukraine where I think he could have

1165
01:04:58,240 --> 01:05:00,600
Speaker 3: been more cautious in places he's chosen not to do

1166
01:05:00,680 --> 01:05:02,760
Speaker 3: that for reasons that are not that are not completely

1167
01:05:02,760 --> 01:05:03,160
Speaker 3: clear to me.

1168
01:05:04,040 --> 01:05:06,800
Speaker 1: All Right, my clock says we made it just under

1169
01:05:06,800 --> 01:05:10,280
Speaker 1: an hour. I cannot emphasize enough to folks, if you're

1170
01:05:10,280 --> 01:05:14,439
Speaker 1: at all interested in the geopolitical landscape. That g zero newsletter. Ian,

1171
01:05:14,640 --> 01:05:17,120
Speaker 1: I've blown smoke up here, you know what before on this,

1172
01:05:17,200 --> 01:05:19,800
Speaker 1: but I just find it to be it's better than

1173
01:05:20,320 --> 01:05:24,800
Speaker 1: there are other quarterly smart foreign policy places out there

1174
01:05:24,800 --> 01:05:26,960
Speaker 1: that do good newsletters. You do the best one.

1175
01:05:27,240 --> 01:05:28,680
Speaker 2: Thank you. It's always great to see it.

1176
01:05:36,960 --> 01:05:37,120
Speaker 3: Well.

1177
01:05:37,160 --> 01:05:40,240
Speaker 1: I hope you enjoyed that tour of the globe, and

1178
01:05:40,280 --> 01:05:41,840
Speaker 1: there were a lot of things we didn't get to

1179
01:05:42,080 --> 01:05:43,680
Speaker 1: that we will get to again. I thought the most

1180
01:05:43,680 --> 01:05:48,720
Speaker 1: fascinating part of Ian's I guess prognostication is the likelihood

1181
01:05:49,080 --> 01:05:52,160
Speaker 1: that Donald Trump wants to cut a deal with the Iranians,

1182
01:05:52,200 --> 01:05:54,560
Speaker 1: and how desperate the Iranians might be to cut a

1183
01:05:54,560 --> 01:05:57,920
Speaker 1: deal with Donald Trump. Not quite Nixon goes to China.

1184
01:05:57,960 --> 01:06:00,280
Speaker 1: But I do think if this does happen and he

1185
01:06:00,320 --> 01:06:03,960
Speaker 1: could use he could use any sort of positive PR,

1186
01:06:05,040 --> 01:06:06,880
Speaker 1: it'll be interesting. I wonder if it will get him

1187
01:06:06,920 --> 01:06:11,400
Speaker 1: positive PR or if it will divide the right on

1188
01:06:11,440 --> 01:06:16,200
Speaker 1: this We'll see, and if it becomes an issue in Israel. Now,

1189
01:06:16,280 --> 01:06:21,400
Speaker 1: who sabotaged essentially Obama's ability to cut a deal with

1190
01:06:21,440 --> 01:06:24,640
Speaker 1: the Iranians? Would he do the same for Trump? Just

1191
01:06:24,680 --> 01:06:27,160
Speaker 1: something to think about. But with that, before I go,

1192
01:06:27,800 --> 01:06:31,800
Speaker 1: let's dabble into the ass Chuck bin and take a

1193
01:06:31,800 --> 01:06:37,360
Speaker 1: look at our questions. Ask Chuck, see, I gotta have

1194
01:06:37,400 --> 01:06:40,200
Speaker 1: the music here, enjoying the music, don't lie you know

1195
01:06:40,480 --> 01:06:43,840
Speaker 1: you like this music. So here's the first question, and

1196
01:06:43,920 --> 01:06:48,800
Speaker 1: it comes from Nicole Meely and she writes, you mentioned

1197
01:06:48,840 --> 01:06:51,040
Speaker 1: a few books you assigned to your class. I'd love

1198
01:06:51,320 --> 01:06:53,640
Speaker 1: if you could share the physical lists. I didn't pay

1199
01:06:53,680 --> 01:06:55,960
Speaker 1: as much attention to history as I should have when

1200
01:06:56,000 --> 01:06:58,760
Speaker 1: I had someone guiding me throughout my education. As I'm

1201
01:06:58,800 --> 01:07:00,840
Speaker 1: getting older, I'm realizing the import of history more and more,

1202
01:07:00,840 --> 01:07:03,320
Speaker 1: and I'd love to have some recommendations to better equip

1203
01:07:03,360 --> 01:07:05,640
Speaker 1: myself and gain a better knowledge of how we got here.

1204
01:07:05,680 --> 01:07:07,800
Speaker 1: Appreciate your time and knowledge. Well, let me give you

1205
01:07:07,840 --> 01:07:09,760
Speaker 1: a sense of This is the book list I was

1206
01:07:09,800 --> 01:07:12,680
Speaker 1: referring to a McKay Coppins. Obviously you enjoyed the Coppins interview,

1207
01:07:13,000 --> 01:07:16,120
Speaker 1: and I noted that Coppin's book on Mitt Romney was

1208
01:07:16,160 --> 01:07:18,240
Speaker 1: one that I had assigned a class that I teach

1209
01:07:18,240 --> 01:07:22,200
Speaker 1: at USC. It's a terrific class called How Washington Works.

1210
01:07:22,640 --> 01:07:26,200
Speaker 1: That is my assignment for visiting students from USC who

1211
01:07:26,240 --> 01:07:29,800
Speaker 1: basically spend a semester in DC interning and getting a

1212
01:07:29,840 --> 01:07:33,280
Speaker 1: taste of Washington. And you know, I'm there, and my

1213
01:07:33,400 --> 01:07:36,440
Speaker 1: class is designed to sort of teach them how Washington

1214
01:07:36,440 --> 01:07:40,080
Speaker 1: works at the moment, because Washington works differently with every administration.

1215
01:07:42,120 --> 01:07:43,600
Speaker 1: So I'll give you the book list that they got

1216
01:07:43,600 --> 01:07:47,960
Speaker 1: to choose from for their mid term as a way

1217
01:07:47,960 --> 01:07:52,560
Speaker 1: of at least understanding how today's Washington works. So I

1218
01:07:52,640 --> 01:07:54,960
Speaker 1: signed I give him the choice of the following books,

1219
01:07:54,960 --> 01:07:58,320
Speaker 1: one called Madam Speaker, Susan Page's book on Nancy Pelosi.

1220
01:07:58,800 --> 01:08:03,680
Speaker 1: The second, The Price of Power, Michael Tackett's book about

1221
01:08:03,720 --> 01:08:07,120
Speaker 1: Mitch McConnell. Both, by the way, Pelosi and McConnell essentially

1222
01:08:07,120 --> 01:08:10,600
Speaker 1: cooperated with both authors. So I do think I've enjoyed

1223
01:08:10,600 --> 01:08:14,240
Speaker 1: both books. I think it gives you an understanding of

1224
01:08:14,280 --> 01:08:17,960
Speaker 1: at least how they executed power. And I think whatever

1225
01:08:18,000 --> 01:08:20,840
Speaker 1: you think of either Pelosi or McConnell, both of them

1226
01:08:20,840 --> 01:08:25,880
Speaker 1: were consequential and both of them were powerful congressional leaders

1227
01:08:26,200 --> 01:08:32,960
Speaker 1: that will take probably decades to replace. The next McConnell,

1228
01:08:33,000 --> 01:08:35,960
Speaker 1: and the next Pelosi is probably not currently serving in

1229
01:08:36,000 --> 01:08:39,040
Speaker 1: the Senate and the House. Just something to think about

1230
01:08:39,960 --> 01:08:43,640
Speaker 1: on how the two parties have changed. The two books

1231
01:08:44,000 --> 01:08:46,400
Speaker 1: that I sort of see as as a companion on

1232
01:08:46,439 --> 01:08:50,040
Speaker 1: that or what you are writing about there, which is

1233
01:08:50,080 --> 01:08:54,200
Speaker 1: the McKay coppin's book on Romney. Met Romney essentially kept

1234
01:08:54,240 --> 01:08:58,040
Speaker 1: a journal during his twenty twelve campaign, and it really

1235
01:08:58,040 --> 01:09:00,000
Speaker 1: does a good job. And then he kept this journal

1236
01:09:00,160 --> 01:09:03,200
Speaker 1: up throughout the Trump era while he was serving as

1237
01:09:03,240 --> 01:09:07,520
Speaker 1: a Senator, and it does he really what Romney inadvertently

1238
01:09:07,560 --> 01:09:12,880
Speaker 1: does is help guide us from the changing Republican Party.

1239
01:09:12,920 --> 01:09:15,839
Speaker 1: What he saw in the campaign trail, what he realized

1240
01:09:16,040 --> 01:09:18,599
Speaker 1: the party was changing on him, and maybe his type

1241
01:09:18,640 --> 01:09:21,880
Speaker 1: of Republicanism wasn't really what the base wanted, and he

1242
01:09:21,920 --> 01:09:23,680
Speaker 1: was trying to figure out how to sell it and

1243
01:09:23,720 --> 01:09:26,960
Speaker 1: all those things. And I just think Coppins did a

1244
01:09:27,040 --> 01:09:30,760
Speaker 1: terrific job. I mean, yes, it's in Mitt Romney's voice essentially,

1245
01:09:31,520 --> 01:09:35,599
Speaker 1: but it really helps, I think, narrate if you will,

1246
01:09:36,680 --> 01:09:41,160
Speaker 1: the change in the Republican Party from the Eisenhower Romney run.

1247
01:09:41,600 --> 01:09:44,040
Speaker 1: Essentially that one wing of the party went on to

1248
01:09:44,120 --> 01:09:46,439
Speaker 1: where the party is today with Trump, which in many ways,

1249
01:09:46,479 --> 01:09:49,200
Speaker 1: as I've told you before, is actually a throwback to

1250
01:09:49,240 --> 01:09:54,240
Speaker 1: the Republican Party pre Eisenhower, and that evolution I think

1251
01:09:54,240 --> 01:09:57,479
Speaker 1: this book captures it. And from stage left. Roy to

1252
01:09:57,520 --> 01:10:01,040
Speaker 1: Schera has a great book called Where Have All the

1253
01:10:01,040 --> 01:10:03,840
Speaker 1: Democrats Gone? And in some ways, in the same way

1254
01:10:04,080 --> 01:10:11,120
Speaker 1: Coppins helps helps the reader learn about how the party

1255
01:10:11,160 --> 01:10:14,080
Speaker 1: went from Romney to Trump and really went from becoming

1256
01:10:14,120 --> 01:10:18,639
Speaker 1: one thing to another. Roy to Schera shows how the

1257
01:10:18,840 --> 01:10:23,200
Speaker 1: Democratic Party lost its working class voters right, how it happened,

1258
01:10:23,280 --> 01:10:25,479
Speaker 1: and sort of it happened over a decade and a half.

1259
01:10:25,479 --> 01:10:28,120
Speaker 1: This isn't something that happens overnight. And I think roy

1260
01:10:28,200 --> 01:10:29,960
Speaker 1: to share it does a good job of showing how

1261
01:10:29,960 --> 01:10:33,400
Speaker 1: it happened and showing perhaps where the party is headed

1262
01:10:33,439 --> 01:10:36,400
Speaker 1: and where it could sort of change where it's headed.

1263
01:10:36,400 --> 01:10:38,840
Speaker 1: And you, my guess is a lot of people who

1264
01:10:38,840 --> 01:10:41,080
Speaker 1: are thinking about running for president on the Democratic side

1265
01:10:41,520 --> 01:10:44,080
Speaker 1: have consumed this book. And that's why I think students

1266
01:10:44,320 --> 01:10:46,360
Speaker 1: ought to be consuming this book and then to learn

1267
01:10:46,400 --> 01:10:49,479
Speaker 1: about how the influence a game in Washington works. The

1268
01:10:49,600 --> 01:10:53,479
Speaker 1: Mullins brothers, my friend Brody Mullins and his brother did

1269
01:10:53,479 --> 01:10:56,880
Speaker 1: a book called The Wolves of k Street and it

1270
01:10:57,000 --> 01:10:59,120
Speaker 1: is a really it's actually, believe it or not, it's

1271
01:10:59,200 --> 01:11:01,400
Speaker 1: very gripping. They do a terrific job. There's some just

1272
01:11:01,439 --> 01:11:04,840
Speaker 1: amazing tales of lobbyists over the years and sort of

1273
01:11:04,880 --> 01:11:09,200
Speaker 1: the over consumption, if you will, or over exuberance of

1274
01:11:09,240 --> 01:11:12,280
Speaker 1: some of them. But it gives you a good understanding

1275
01:11:12,360 --> 01:11:16,840
Speaker 1: of essentially how we got to this influence game of

1276
01:11:16,880 --> 01:11:19,760
Speaker 1: today and that we are at the point now where

1277
01:11:19,800 --> 01:11:23,479
Speaker 1: it used to be the lobbying world was consumed with

1278
01:11:24,200 --> 01:11:29,960
Speaker 1: essentially citizen activists versus corporations, and now it's essentially corporations

1279
01:11:30,040 --> 01:11:32,960
Speaker 1: versus other corporations. Right, They're all fighting over regulation that

1280
01:11:33,000 --> 01:11:36,360
Speaker 1: would hurt one business and help another. And somehow the

1281
01:11:36,400 --> 01:11:38,640
Speaker 1: citizens aren't even involved in this operation at all. But

1282
01:11:38,680 --> 01:11:42,120
Speaker 1: I do think so those five books, and I and

1283
01:11:42,200 --> 01:11:45,320
Speaker 1: my students, I asked them to pick one and you know,

1284
01:11:45,360 --> 01:11:47,400
Speaker 1: write me an analysis and a review of it. But

1285
01:11:47,439 --> 01:11:50,120
Speaker 1: if you're looking for five reads that I think can

1286
01:11:50,160 --> 01:11:54,840
Speaker 1: help you understand today's Washington, in today's politics in America,

1287
01:11:55,400 --> 01:11:58,800
Speaker 1: those are as good of a first five to read

1288
01:11:59,600 --> 01:12:04,160
Speaker 1: as you get. So there you go. And no, I

1289
01:12:04,200 --> 01:12:06,400
Speaker 1: do not get a commission on any of the books

1290
01:12:06,439 --> 01:12:08,760
Speaker 1: if you buy them from Amazon. But perhaps I'm making

1291
01:12:08,800 --> 01:12:12,160
Speaker 1: a mistake. And maybe if all of these books suddenly

1292
01:12:12,200 --> 01:12:15,160
Speaker 1: become overnight best sellers for a day, I'll know the

1293
01:12:15,200 --> 01:12:18,439
Speaker 1: power that we have already developed it here at the

1294
01:12:18,479 --> 01:12:21,320
Speaker 1: podcast with you, my incredible listeners. All right, My next

1295
01:12:21,400 --> 01:12:23,960
Speaker 1: question is from GW. Joe and Nashville. I like this.

1296
01:12:24,040 --> 01:12:27,720
Speaker 1: My fellow alums are going to refer to themselves with

1297
01:12:28,520 --> 01:12:31,680
Speaker 1: race high and with a little revolutionary love there. I

1298
01:12:31,720 --> 01:12:35,120
Speaker 1: appreciate it and His question from GW Joe is this

1299
01:12:35,200 --> 01:12:36,479
Speaker 1: is there an argument to be made that we are

1300
01:12:36,560 --> 01:12:39,960
Speaker 1: now a competitive authoritarian regime? Are we close to Ertwe's

1301
01:12:39,960 --> 01:12:41,920
Speaker 1: Turkey than we are to our own democracy circ in

1302
01:12:41,960 --> 01:12:44,360
Speaker 1: nineteen seventy or pick any decade of your choice. I

1303
01:12:44,400 --> 01:12:47,400
Speaker 1: think it's worth a discussion. Congress is self neutered, itself true.

1304
01:12:47,560 --> 01:12:52,280
Speaker 1: The executive is now ignoring laws, fact, flirting with ignoring

1305
01:12:52,320 --> 01:12:55,439
Speaker 1: courts true, and is using its power to tip the

1306
01:12:55,479 --> 01:12:58,559
Speaker 1: scales against opponents like law firms that disagree. I also

1307
01:12:58,600 --> 01:13:00,799
Speaker 1: would factor in that I live in a place like Nashville, Tennessee,

1308
01:13:00,840 --> 01:13:02,960
Speaker 1: where my district has been Jerry manderd and I don't

1309
01:13:03,040 --> 01:13:06,200
Speaker 1: really have a say in my federal representation, limited congressional power,

1310
01:13:06,200 --> 01:13:10,320
Speaker 1: expansive executive action, and suahs of the country in non

1311
01:13:10,320 --> 01:13:13,600
Speaker 1: competitive districts. Are we still a democracy? Well, look, we are.

1312
01:13:14,080 --> 01:13:14,360
Speaker 3: We are.

1313
01:13:14,760 --> 01:13:16,640
Speaker 1: I still think we're the cleanest, you know, sort of

1314
01:13:16,680 --> 01:13:18,160
Speaker 1: the I guess one way to put it. One of

1315
01:13:18,160 --> 01:13:20,879
Speaker 1: my favorite expressions, and I learned this during the Great Recession,

1316
01:13:20,920 --> 01:13:23,360
Speaker 1: when we were all worried about the state of our economy,

1317
01:13:23,360 --> 01:13:25,960
Speaker 1: and I had an economist friend used the following expression

1318
01:13:25,960 --> 01:13:27,519
Speaker 1: when he said, well, we're the cleanest pair of dirty

1319
01:13:27,560 --> 01:13:31,320
Speaker 1: underwear in the hamper. Meaning you may think our economic

1320
01:13:31,360 --> 01:13:33,200
Speaker 1: system is kind of messy, kind of broke in what

1321
01:13:33,240 --> 01:13:35,719
Speaker 1: we were doing with the housing market, credit to fault swaps,

1322
01:13:35,760 --> 01:13:38,559
Speaker 1: all that business, except everywhere else is worse to keep

1323
01:13:38,560 --> 01:13:40,720
Speaker 1: your money right, and that is frankly what Donald Trump

1324
01:13:40,800 --> 01:13:42,600
Speaker 1: is banking on with his tariff regime, which is that

1325
01:13:42,960 --> 01:13:45,880
Speaker 1: as bad as these tariffs are, as bad as unsettling

1326
01:13:45,960 --> 01:13:47,160
Speaker 1: as it all is, where else are you going to

1327
01:13:47,200 --> 01:13:50,120
Speaker 1: put your money? China rule of law? You really feel

1328
01:13:50,160 --> 01:13:52,760
Speaker 1: good about that. How about the EU? You think they're

1329
01:13:52,800 --> 01:13:54,240
Speaker 1: not going to want to tax your money? Where are

1330
01:13:54,240 --> 01:13:56,519
Speaker 1: you going to put your money? So that is something

1331
01:13:56,520 --> 01:14:00,880
Speaker 1: that he's counting on. As for your I don't know

1332
01:14:00,960 --> 01:14:05,040
Speaker 1: if we're at Airdowan's turkey. I'm not that I'm not

1333
01:14:05,240 --> 01:14:09,799
Speaker 1: that down yet. Airdiwan is using the power of government

1334
01:14:09,880 --> 01:14:13,000
Speaker 1: to pick his political opponent. We haven't gotten to that

1335
01:14:13,160 --> 01:14:20,599
Speaker 1: step yet. We're probably somewhere early stages orbon and hungry

1336
01:14:21,560 --> 01:14:25,280
Speaker 1: right where it is more about trying. Because in this way,

1337
01:14:25,680 --> 01:14:29,479
Speaker 1: it's why Hungary is probably the better comparative for now

1338
01:14:30,000 --> 01:14:33,120
Speaker 1: trying to you know, this sort of assault you know,

1339
01:14:33,240 --> 01:14:37,280
Speaker 1: using the power of government to influence private institutions like universities.

1340
01:14:38,040 --> 01:14:41,120
Speaker 1: That is a little more orbon esque and sort of

1341
01:14:41,640 --> 01:14:44,000
Speaker 1: I think that's why I don't We're not at are

1342
01:14:44,040 --> 01:14:46,720
Speaker 1: Dowon yet. Now that said, I think about I use

1343
01:14:46,760 --> 01:14:49,040
Speaker 1: areedwon as an example a lot of where we could

1344
01:14:49,080 --> 01:14:54,680
Speaker 1: head because erdiwan still and you'll you'll, you know at

1345
01:14:54,680 --> 01:14:57,000
Speaker 1: this point, you've heard this in the interview with Ian

1346
01:14:57,120 --> 01:14:59,759
Speaker 1: right when I asked him this, which is, you know, Airedowan,

1347
01:15:00,160 --> 01:15:03,120
Speaker 1: the elections themselves are not rigged in Turkey, it's just

1348
01:15:03,160 --> 01:15:07,320
Speaker 1: everything else is. So the media is rigged, the cultural

1349
01:15:07,320 --> 01:15:09,600
Speaker 1: institutions are rigged. The ability of who gets on the

1350
01:15:09,640 --> 01:15:12,680
Speaker 1: ballot is rigged, right, Iran? Is that way, Iran? You know,

1351
01:15:12,760 --> 01:15:16,479
Speaker 1: the elections themselves aren't necessarily rigged, but who can get

1352
01:15:16,479 --> 01:15:19,680
Speaker 1: on the ballot, right is rigged? Right, So it is

1353
01:15:19,720 --> 01:15:22,840
Speaker 1: not a true democracy the once they decide who's up,

1354
01:15:22,880 --> 01:15:26,080
Speaker 1: they always claim to be a real democracy because they

1355
01:15:26,080 --> 01:15:27,880
Speaker 1: don't mess with their vote. And by the way, the

1356
01:15:28,320 --> 01:15:30,559
Speaker 1: guy who won this last time wasn't necessarily the first

1357
01:15:30,640 --> 01:15:33,519
Speaker 1: choice of the Supreme Leader. So there is you know,

1358
01:15:33,640 --> 01:15:35,840
Speaker 1: it's it's like you know, and and it's you know,

1359
01:15:37,160 --> 01:15:41,880
Speaker 1: we'll see if Erdowan survives this. You know, he's you know,

1360
01:15:41,960 --> 01:15:44,479
Speaker 1: he's tried to stop this guy before, and you just

1361
01:15:44,560 --> 01:15:47,320
Speaker 1: lost elections in this nonvel right. His party has tried

1362
01:15:47,320 --> 01:15:51,479
Speaker 1: to push back on it. So, but I do think

1363
01:15:51,560 --> 01:15:54,519
Speaker 1: your larger point that essentially the democracy has been weakened,

1364
01:15:54,560 --> 01:15:57,400
Speaker 1: and I think it's been weakened on the legislative level. Right.

1365
01:15:57,800 --> 01:15:59,320
Speaker 1: I have all sorts of theories on this. I think

1366
01:15:59,360 --> 01:16:01,640
Speaker 1: we need a double the size of the House and

1367
01:16:01,680 --> 01:16:04,439
Speaker 1: the House needs to get its power back, right. Article

1368
01:16:04,439 --> 01:16:07,960
Speaker 1: one of the Constitution is the legislative branch is about that.

1369
01:16:08,080 --> 01:16:10,439
Speaker 1: They're the power of the purse. They're they're the ones

1370
01:16:10,439 --> 01:16:13,160
Speaker 1: that decide how much authority a president has. They have

1371
01:16:13,160 --> 01:16:16,080
Speaker 1: the power right now to take this tariff emergency authority

1372
01:16:16,160 --> 01:16:20,519
Speaker 1: away from the president. We'll see if they do. I

1373
01:16:20,560 --> 01:16:23,599
Speaker 1: think that if we continue down this road, I don't

1374
01:16:23,640 --> 01:16:26,360
Speaker 1: think a Republican House will do this, but a Republican

1375
01:16:26,439 --> 01:16:30,439
Speaker 1: Senate with a Democratic House might. So I think that that,

1376
01:16:30,600 --> 01:16:32,439
Speaker 1: you know, we could be it could be you've got

1377
01:16:32,479 --> 01:16:35,360
Speaker 1: to hang in there for two years before Congress decides

1378
01:16:35,400 --> 01:16:38,040
Speaker 1: to use its authority. But I think we now know

1379
01:16:38,160 --> 01:16:41,160
Speaker 1: that the only time Congress wants to use its authority

1380
01:16:41,760 --> 01:16:44,280
Speaker 1: is when it's controlled by a party that is not

1381
01:16:44,360 --> 01:16:47,320
Speaker 1: in charge of the presidency. The real problem is what

1382
01:16:47,479 --> 01:16:51,519
Speaker 1: happens when Congress and the presidency are the same party.

1383
01:16:51,600 --> 01:16:54,320
Speaker 1: That's when we've seen all of these horrible decisions by

1384
01:16:54,320 --> 01:16:57,840
Speaker 1: Congress to hand authority over to the to the executive branch.

1385
01:16:58,200 --> 01:17:01,960
Speaker 1: They always do it when quote unquote their side is

1386
01:17:02,000 --> 01:17:03,680
Speaker 1: in charge and they're thinking, well, this is what they

1387
01:17:03,760 --> 01:17:06,880
Speaker 1: want in the moment, and then they regret it the

1388
01:17:06,920 --> 01:17:11,160
Speaker 1: second the other party wins. So, uh, you know, with

1389
01:17:11,240 --> 01:17:14,280
Speaker 1: this trade authority, you know, the reason why this trade

1390
01:17:14,320 --> 01:17:17,080
Speaker 1: authority was ever handed over to the executive branch is

1391
01:17:17,120 --> 01:17:21,160
Speaker 1: because Congress thought the president would never be less of

1392
01:17:21,200 --> 01:17:25,439
Speaker 1: a free trader than Congress collectively, which before Donald Trump

1393
01:17:25,720 --> 01:17:33,800
Speaker 1: that was true. That's obviously not true anymore. So, you know,

1394
01:17:33,840 --> 01:17:37,479
Speaker 1: our elections are honest, are there is certainly an attempt

1395
01:17:37,479 --> 01:17:39,880
Speaker 1: I think, you know, I go down. I just think

1396
01:17:39,920 --> 01:17:42,880
Speaker 1: that that Trump is believes in a in a more

1397
01:17:42,960 --> 01:17:46,600
Speaker 1: social He believes in the same authorities that we have

1398
01:17:46,760 --> 01:17:50,000
Speaker 1: said socialist governments are trying to do right. Socialist governments

1399
01:17:50,000 --> 01:17:57,479
Speaker 1: in general, particularly the ones in the global South. One

1400
01:17:57,520 --> 01:18:00,400
Speaker 1: of a bit more. I want to use government authority

1401
01:18:00,560 --> 01:18:03,120
Speaker 1: not just over the economy, but also over the culture

1402
01:18:04,760 --> 01:18:07,479
Speaker 1: and over some other things. And I think in that sense,

1403
01:18:08,120 --> 01:18:09,920
Speaker 1: you know, this is where I think Donald Trump is

1404
01:18:09,920 --> 01:18:13,679
Speaker 1: behaving more like a socialist, which is sort of ironic,

1405
01:18:13,760 --> 01:18:16,840
Speaker 1: the very thing that the Marco Rubios of the world

1406
01:18:17,080 --> 01:18:20,719
Speaker 1: have fought their whole life against. But you know, Donald

1407
01:18:20,760 --> 01:18:23,719
Speaker 1: Trump doesn't believe in limited government. He really does believe

1408
01:18:23,760 --> 01:18:26,360
Speaker 1: in the strong arm of government. Look at how much

1409
01:18:26,400 --> 01:18:30,280
Speaker 1: he's using it. So and and I guess I would

1410
01:18:30,360 --> 01:18:36,920
Speaker 1: argue until I'd like to see a debate frame that

1411
01:18:37,000 --> 01:18:40,000
Speaker 1: way and see how the public reacts and see how

1412
01:18:40,000 --> 01:18:42,800
Speaker 1: this goes. So again, you know, I think that there

1413
01:18:42,880 --> 01:18:44,840
Speaker 1: is you know, we are we are not yet at

1414
01:18:45,080 --> 01:18:49,439
Speaker 1: Erdowan or Hungary today, but if you look at the

1415
01:18:49,479 --> 01:18:53,360
Speaker 1: early stages of what Ubon did, you can see some

1416
01:18:53,960 --> 01:18:55,280
Speaker 1: of the similarities.

1417
01:18:56,280 --> 01:18:56,400
Speaker 3: Uh.

1418
01:18:56,640 --> 01:19:00,400
Speaker 1: And obviously you know, I'm not saying this stuff can't

1419
01:19:00,400 --> 01:19:03,400
Speaker 1: slip away. I mean, you look, I'll be honest, I'm

1420
01:19:03,439 --> 01:19:06,160
Speaker 1: surprised that there isn't more outcry of the lack of

1421
01:19:06,240 --> 01:19:10,920
Speaker 1: due process for the mistaken for the person that was

1422
01:19:10,960 --> 01:19:14,759
Speaker 1: mistakenly deported the resident of Maryland. It was mistakenly deported

1423
01:19:14,760 --> 01:19:19,479
Speaker 1: to El Salvador. I. You know, but then again this

1424
01:19:19,720 --> 01:19:23,040
Speaker 1: in some ways, I think we're finding out that what

1425
01:19:23,280 --> 01:19:28,439
Speaker 1: truly will turn Americans off of this style of governing

1426
01:19:28,479 --> 01:19:31,600
Speaker 1: by Donald Trump is that when it impacts their pocketbook

1427
01:19:32,320 --> 01:19:36,120
Speaker 1: and so while due process and some of these things,

1428
01:19:36,120 --> 01:19:38,840
Speaker 1: people do care about when they think it's being taken

1429
01:19:38,880 --> 01:19:43,280
Speaker 1: away from them, in many ways, they this has been

1430
01:19:43,320 --> 01:19:45,519
Speaker 1: true of the American voter for decades. They don't always

1431
01:19:45,520 --> 01:19:48,080
Speaker 1: worry about it for somebody else. They worry about that

1432
01:19:48,120 --> 01:19:51,719
Speaker 1: stuff when it happens to them. That's why the economic

1433
01:19:51,840 --> 01:19:54,160
Speaker 1: is standing here. I mean, I have a friend of

1434
01:19:54,160 --> 01:19:57,240
Speaker 1: mine who's really nervous, sort of reminds me of where

1435
01:19:57,240 --> 01:19:59,439
Speaker 1: you are about the democracy, thinks that I'm being a

1436
01:19:59,439 --> 01:20:03,719
Speaker 1: little too po and he's suddenly feeling good because he thinks, hey,

1437
01:20:03,920 --> 01:20:06,800
Speaker 1: if there's economic calamity, it means the voters are going

1438
01:20:06,880 --> 01:20:09,240
Speaker 1: to turn on trump Ism, which means we're not going

1439
01:20:09,320 --> 01:20:13,200
Speaker 1: to have to worry about this anti democratic streak that

1440
01:20:13,240 --> 01:20:16,080
Speaker 1: we've seen rise up on the right. We'll see who's

1441
01:20:16,120 --> 01:20:20,160
Speaker 1: right on this one. Let's see how the midterms go. Uh.

1442
01:20:20,280 --> 01:20:22,559
Speaker 1: Let me let me put it in another way. If

1443
01:20:22,600 --> 01:20:25,280
Speaker 1: Donald Trump is able to use the power of the

1444
01:20:25,320 --> 01:20:29,040
Speaker 1: Justice Department of the FBI to essentially disqualify a potential

1445
01:20:29,080 --> 01:20:32,960
Speaker 1: Democratic candidate for president, then we can have a discussion

1446
01:20:33,120 --> 01:20:36,439
Speaker 1: about whether we're on the road to Turkey, because that's

1447
01:20:36,560 --> 01:20:42,040
Speaker 1: what Airdawan has done. Uh. And I'm not going to

1448
01:20:42,120 --> 01:20:44,639
Speaker 1: sit here and say that that could never happen here.

1449
01:20:45,880 --> 01:20:50,519
Speaker 1: And obviously this president has decided to give very very

1450
01:20:50,560 --> 01:20:53,679
Speaker 1: close to the Justice Department in ways that I think

1451
01:20:54,439 --> 01:20:56,760
Speaker 1: you know, for for all the criticism he said of

1452
01:20:57,000 --> 01:21:00,679
Speaker 1: what Biden did, if he claims Biden politicized the Justice Department,

1453
01:21:01,439 --> 01:21:05,919
Speaker 1: he is then doing what Biden did times a thousand

1454
01:21:07,000 --> 01:21:09,760
Speaker 1: and As I always was brought up with, do two

1455
01:21:09,760 --> 01:21:13,160
Speaker 1: wrongs make a right? This has been the biggest problem

1456
01:21:13,200 --> 01:21:16,080
Speaker 1: in American politics is that too many people are conducting

1457
01:21:16,439 --> 01:21:20,480
Speaker 1: are using power when they get it now to essentially

1458
01:21:23,760 --> 01:21:27,760
Speaker 1: execute a wrong and rationalize it because they think the

1459
01:21:27,800 --> 01:21:31,559
Speaker 1: other side did the wrong first. That arguably is why

1460
01:21:31,560 --> 01:21:33,559
Speaker 1: we're in the position we're in right now in our

1461
01:21:33,560 --> 01:21:37,360
Speaker 1: political system. All right, on that uplifting note, I'm going

1462
01:21:37,439 --> 01:21:41,439
Speaker 1: to leave the questions there for now. Don't worry, keep

1463
01:21:41,479 --> 01:21:43,400
Speaker 1: them coming. There are a lot I would have done

1464
01:21:43,439 --> 01:21:45,880
Speaker 1: but this week I got some great interviews, so I'm

1465
01:21:45,880 --> 01:21:50,160
Speaker 1: not going to have a full just ask Chuck type

1466
01:21:51,240 --> 01:21:54,280
Speaker 1: type of upload. I will do that again next week,

1467
01:21:55,000 --> 01:21:57,639
Speaker 1: but I got a really special treat for you after

1468
01:21:57,720 --> 01:22:00,840
Speaker 1: this episode. Our next episode. It's a special especially for

1469
01:22:00,880 --> 01:22:05,160
Speaker 1: those of you that love a good conspiracy theory. That's

1470
01:22:05,200 --> 01:22:08,040
Speaker 1: my tease for now and with that until we upload again.