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Speaker 1: at the volume. Happy Thursday, everybody. Hope all of you
Speaker 1: guys are having an incredible week. It feels great to
Speaker 1: be back. We had just unbelievable ski conditions up in
Speaker 1: Breckenridge this weekend. They got a ton of snow the
Speaker 1: week before and had all week to kind of pack
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Speaker 1: it was just unbelievable trip. That said, it's good to
Speaker 1: be back. We've missed a couple of significant pieces of news.
Speaker 1: Doc Rivers is now the coach of the Milwaukee Bucks.
Speaker 1: That's weird, right, and it was weird the way it
Speaker 1: went down. We're going to talk about that, and then
Speaker 1: Terry Rogier is headed to or Is with the Miami Heat.
Speaker 1: I actually watched his first game with the Heat this morning,
Speaker 1: and so I want to hit those two topics and
Speaker 1: a couple of others. What we're gonna do today is
Speaker 1: five big NBA questions. I wrote five questions that will
Speaker 1: help us hit all of these big storylines around the league.
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Speaker 1: question number one of our five NBA questions, Jason, why
Speaker 1: did the Bucks fire Adrian Griffin and hire Doc Rivers? So,
Speaker 1: first of all, there's two.
Speaker 2: Ways of looking at this.
Speaker 1: There's like the kind of like retrospective, like, let's look
Speaker 1: back and kind of try to see what the ultimate
Speaker 1: kind of like goal here was. And that gets confusing
Speaker 1: as you zoom out and you're like, okay, so you
Speaker 1: fire Mike Budenholzer because you don't think he's good enough
Speaker 1: with playoff adjustments, So you hire a rookie head coach,
Speaker 1: and then when that goes south, you then go hire
Speaker 1: Doc Rivers, another guy whose kind of reputation is being
Speaker 1: a guy who struggles with playoff adjustments and famously has
Speaker 1: blown a lot of series late after taking early series leads.
Speaker 1: So yeah, as you zoom out, like it doesn't make
Speaker 1: a ton of sense, there's no doubt. However, if you
Speaker 1: zoom in just a little bit like cut the Mike
Speaker 1: Budenholzer and hiring Adrian Griffin, peace out, and you just
Speaker 1: zoom in on this season. It makes sense to me.
Speaker 1: Do I think it's gonna fix all of Milwaukee's problems? No,
Speaker 1: but it does make sense to me. And I want
Speaker 1: to kind of break this down so you guys can
Speaker 1: kind of understand where I'm coming from. First of all,
Speaker 1: Adrian Griffin was not the right coach for this particular team.
Speaker 1: Forget about the decision to hire him. Just acknowledge the
Speaker 1: reality that he was the head coach for this season. Okay,
Speaker 1: It's been a pretty consistent thing. One of the things
Speaker 1: that I do in my job is I constantly am
Speaker 1: picking the brains of other people around the league. Like
Speaker 1: I'm a big believer, and I don't actually I don't
Speaker 1: know everything about basketball. I just have my personal perspective,
Speaker 1: and the best way to kind of round out that
Speaker 1: perspective is to include as many perspectives as possible. And
Speaker 1: so I talk to a lot of people around the league.
Speaker 1: People who cover the league nationally, people cover individual teams, agents,
Speaker 1: so on and so forth. Right, So when I talk
Speaker 1: to those guys, there have been some consistent things that
Speaker 1: I've gotten back, and one of the big ones is
Speaker 1: Adrian Griffin is not doing a very good job with
Speaker 1: the Bucks this year. Obviously, I had my own kind
Speaker 1: of suspicions there right as I'm watching the team, I'm like, hmm, okay,
Speaker 1: Adrian Griffin coach for the Raptors. The Raptors under Nick
Speaker 1: Nurse ran this like super aggressive like pick and roll,
Speaker 1: blitz and recover scheme, and Adrian Griffin's bringing that.
Speaker 2: To the Bucks.
Speaker 1: And the Bucks have Brook Lopez, this like kind of
Speaker 1: slow footed big guy who's like really good when he's
Speaker 1: around the basket, but when he gets out to the
Speaker 1: perimeter can have some issues. Like overall, their team speed
Speaker 1: isn't great, so they're not great in rotation. Outside of
Speaker 1: like Giannis, they're pretty unathletic at most positions, So I'm like,
Speaker 1: this doesn't make a lot of sense, right, And then
Speaker 1: there were a lot of like clear indicators that the
Speaker 1: team wasn't playing hard consistently, right, Like twentieth in defensive rating,
Speaker 1: they don't guard their dead last and opponent transition frequency,
Speaker 1: they don't run back, there's bad body language, there's blowout losses,
Speaker 1: all these like clear indicators that things weren't working right,
Speaker 1: and then you got to add the urgency element to it.
Speaker 1: Dame is older and appears to be on the decline, right, Like,
Speaker 1: I'm not saying that he is declined, but like this
Speaker 1: is the first season where you're starting to see like, oh,
Speaker 1: like smaller guard, a little bit undersized, shots not falling.
Speaker 1: The defense is worse than it's ever been, Like there
Speaker 1: are some concerns there, right, and then also if things
Speaker 1: go south, Gianni's requesting a trade is a high likelihood, right, Like,
Speaker 1: this whole team is old, they don't have a ton
Speaker 1: to offer. Janis on the basketball side of things other
Speaker 1: than Dame, and Dame is older, So like you can
Speaker 1: imagine a scenario where like Dame has some struggles this year, things.
Speaker 2: Don't go well. Brook gets older, Chris Middleton gets older.
Speaker 1: There's a version of this where Yannis looks around and
Speaker 1: goes like, what, I don't want to be here anymore?
Speaker 2: Right, So there's submergency there.
Speaker 1: And then also these young teams are coming, Like you
Speaker 1: look around the league and it's a lot of these
Speaker 1: Like it's like, okay, Orlando looks like they could be
Speaker 1: really good.
Speaker 2: In the long run.
Speaker 1: Oklahoma City looks like it could be really good in
Speaker 1: the long run. The New Orleans Pelicans look like it
Speaker 1: can be really good in the long run. Right Like
Speaker 1: in Minnesota Timberwolves. There's all these teams out there that
Speaker 1: look like they're on the rise, and so it kind
Speaker 1: of feels like this is a very important season for
Speaker 1: the Milwaukee Bucks, right and so I don't think interim
Speaker 1: head coach was an option for them. They knew Adrian
Speaker 1: Griffin wasn't the right guy. That's a consensus, that's not
Speaker 1: just me, that's within that locker room. Giannis himself was
Speaker 1: going up to the press conferences and he was literally
Speaker 1: saying that he was complaining about the defensive schemes.
Speaker 2: So obviously there was issues with the.
Speaker 1: General manager, or I should say the front office and
Speaker 1: the ownership group as it pertains Adrian Griffin. Obviously the
Speaker 1: players had some issue with him, Terry Stotts had issues
Speaker 1: with him, and then around the he gets a consensus
Speaker 1: that he was struggling, right, So like that's the reality.
Speaker 1: Then you combine that with the urgency and it's you
Speaker 1: gotta find somebody to get in there. Who's the best
Speaker 1: possible option to get in there and just kind of
Speaker 1: get the most out of this group for this season. Right,
Speaker 1: They didn't want to go to an interim head coach.
Speaker 1: They sense the urgency, they go for Doc Rivers. Now,
Speaker 1: is Doc Rivers going to help with the tactical side
Speaker 1: of things? That's not what he's known for. To me,
Speaker 1: Doc Rivers' best trait that he brings to a basketball team.
Speaker 1: His personality, management, and motivation get him into a room
Speaker 1: with a bunch of guys with egos. He's got enough
Speaker 1: of an aura surrounding him that he commands respect. He's
Speaker 1: gonna be able to get some of that buy in
Speaker 1: that they weren't getting. And if he can just clean
Speaker 1: up things on the margins, that will go a long
Speaker 1: way towards helping their situation. We're gonna talk more about
Speaker 1: the basketball side of it here in just a second.
Speaker 1: I'm just focusing on the big picture here, right. So
Speaker 1: as we zoom out and you go from Budenholzer to
Speaker 1: Griffin to Doc, you're like, what the hell are they
Speaker 1: doing right? Right? But you zoom in and you go,
Speaker 1: Adrian Griffin's not the right coach. There's real urgency. We
Speaker 1: need someone to come in in January to turn this
Speaker 1: thing around. Doc's available, He'll at least be able to
Speaker 1: get them to buy in.
Speaker 2: I get it, I get it.
Speaker 1: I obviously he's not the perfect coach in a vacuum
Speaker 1: for this team, but under the circumstances, I think we
Speaker 1: can state unequivocally that the Bucks have a better chance
Speaker 1: to get it done this season with Doc than they
Speaker 1: do with Adriane Griffin. And therefore, if we zoom in
Speaker 1: it was a good move. That obviously we zoom out
Speaker 1: it's confusing. Zoom in it's a good move. Question number two,
Speaker 1: what can Doc help the Bucks with to help them
Speaker 1: reach their potential? I wrote down a few things for us,
Speaker 1: three things in specific. Number one, get defensive buy in
Speaker 1: from Dame. He's been the primary culprit and their defensive
Speaker 1: struggles all season long. He doesn't need to be amazing
Speaker 1: on that end, but he needs to do his job,
Speaker 1: and right now he's not even doing his job. To
Speaker 1: put it simply, they can't win the title this year
Speaker 1: unless they get like a Steph Curry esque just commitment
Speaker 1: to doing the job from Damian Lillard. And that's something
Speaker 1: I think a dot can help with. From the same
Speaker 1: point of being a big enough personality to look Dame
Speaker 1: in the face and be like, this is non negotiable.
Speaker 1: This is what we need from you. And when I
Speaker 1: say Steph, what I mean. Steph was never a deeply
Speaker 1: impactful athlete. He's not a guy that like is going
Speaker 1: to go toe to toe with the best perimeter initiators
Speaker 1: of the league and hold his own. As a matter
Speaker 1: of fact, Dame is actually a little bit quicker, right.
Speaker 1: Dame is actually, even though he's undersized, is a little
Speaker 1: bit better athlete. But Steph does his job. He understands
Speaker 1: his role in the defensive scheme. You can see him
Speaker 1: working his butt off. You can see him chasing over
Speaker 1: the top. You can see him putting himself and help
Speaker 1: and recover situations. You can see him at least trying
Speaker 1: to keep the person in front and force him to
Speaker 1: take a tough jump shot. You can see Steph trying right.
Speaker 1: And that's gone from making him too what early in
Speaker 1: his career is a bad defensive player to being an
Speaker 1: average defensive player. And if you have an average defensive
Speaker 1: player in an excellent defensive scheme, you can get stops.
Speaker 1: That's step one. You got to get defensive buy in
Speaker 1: from day step two help Dame and Giannis maximize their
Speaker 1: success in pick and roll. The Bucks are just ninth
Speaker 1: in offense in January. They've been a really good offense
Speaker 1: most of the season, but I still think they have
Speaker 1: some significant room for improvement. By the way, this has
Speaker 1: been something I've said all season. What if I said
Speaker 1: consistently about the Bucks, they can be so much better
Speaker 1: than they have been. Right specifically, I think if we
Speaker 1: can acknowledge the reality that they're not going to be
Speaker 1: an elite defense, right, they're not gonna be elite. They
Speaker 1: can get to okay, but they're not gonna be elite.
Speaker 1: And so if you're not gonna be an elite a defense,
Speaker 1: you've got to be like Denver on offense, meaning in
Speaker 1: a half court, slowdown environment, you have to consistently get
Speaker 1: absolutely great shots every single time, which this group is
Speaker 1: capable of doing. In the Dame pick and roll stuff.
Speaker 1: With Yah, I think there's a lot of meat on
Speaker 1: the bone there. Still Giannis is missing reads on the roll,
Speaker 1: which we'll talk about in a minute. They're getting in
Speaker 1: each other's way a lot of the time. Obviously, this
Speaker 1: is this is normal, is to be expected. Two stars
Speaker 1: kind of learning how to play together, and then Dame
Speaker 1: in general is struggling to find his offensive rhythm. They
Speaker 1: can run more pick and roll. These are some fixes.
Speaker 1: Dames pick and roll frequency is down this year from
Speaker 1: last year. I think that's having an effect on his rhythm.
Speaker 1: All the reps you can get not just for Dame's rhythm,
Speaker 1: but for the continuity and chemistry between those two. And
Speaker 1: then obviously I would I've been talking about this all year.
Speaker 1: I think they need to simplify the reeds. You know,
Speaker 1: a lot of like the high pick and roll in
Speaker 1: the middle of the floor stuff leads to Gianni's catching
Speaker 1: on short rolls around the foul line. When he catches
Speaker 1: short rolls around the foul line, he has to see
Speaker 1: a ton of the floor on both sides of him,
Speaker 1: and that can get a little tricky for Yannis. Sometimes
Speaker 1: I love middle of the floor operation for top tier
Speaker 1: passers because it is actually the hardest spot on the
Speaker 1: floor for the defense to guard because there's a lot
Speaker 1: more openings right, whereas with the cleared side you can
Speaker 1: do more loading up and then the rotations are a
Speaker 1: little bit less spread out on the weak side right.
Speaker 1: But the problem is if you don't have a guy
Speaker 1: that can actually see all of those reads and quickly
Speaker 1: digest them, rolling into the middle of the floor, it
Speaker 1: can be a little bit of an issue. So I
Speaker 1: like clearing the side because you keep the entire floor
Speaker 1: in front of Yannis, which makes his reads easier. I've
Speaker 1: called out several examples in my Twitter threads as I've
Speaker 1: done film sessions this year where Yannis catches in the
Speaker 1: middle of the floor and he doesn't see what's happening
Speaker 1: behind him and he misses an open shooter, or like
Speaker 1: drives into traffic and struggles to make those decisions. It's
Speaker 1: just easier for Yannis when the side is clear. So
Speaker 1: from there I would just run more action where it's
Speaker 1: like Dame Gianis pick and roll right side of the floor,
Speaker 1: left side of the floor, everyone else is on the
Speaker 1: opposite side of the floor. Have Dame working towards the middle,
Speaker 1: with Yanis catching his rolls on the short corner on
Speaker 1: that cleared side where he's barreling down to the rim.
Speaker 1: If they zone up on that side, he has easy
Speaker 1: reads to skip because they're right in front of him.
Speaker 1: If they don't zone up, he's going ahead. Esteam towards
Speaker 1: the rent, So run it more, run it with a
Speaker 1: more deliberate schematic approach to kind of create easy reads
Speaker 1: for Giannis. That's where I think things can kind of
Speaker 1: open up for them on the offensive end of the four.
Speaker 1: You've got to find a way to get to where
Speaker 1: that action is as reliable as a Jokich Murray pick
Speaker 1: and roll. That's got to be the goal. And then lastly,
Speaker 1: the biggest thing I think that Doc can help with
Speaker 1: is just cleaning up the details. They have to fix
Speaker 1: their transition defense. They're literally the worst in the league.
Speaker 1: They allow teams to get out and transition on more
Speaker 1: than seventeen percent of their possessions, dead last in the
Speaker 1: NBA two. They need better contests in pick and roll.
Speaker 1: The Bucks allow opponents to shoot forty six percent in
Speaker 1: the mid range. That's the second worst mark in the
Speaker 1: league to the Detroit Pistons. They are the fourth worst
Speaker 1: team in the league guarding opposing pick and roll ball
Speaker 1: handlers based on points per possession. Why lutely no back
Speaker 1: pressure they have Brook running this drop coverage, He's sitting
Speaker 1: back towards the Rami's offering late contests. That means that
Speaker 1: middle of the floor is where things are open, and
Speaker 1: specifically Damon Malik Beasley. Malik's trying, but he just has
Speaker 1: some limitations and he loses focus. Dame's not even trying
Speaker 1: at all whatsoever.
Speaker 2: But they're not.
Speaker 1: Getting any of that back pressure that chasing from behind
Speaker 1: to funnel into brook. The late contests on floaters and
Speaker 1: pull up jump shots back the rear view contests to
Speaker 1: try to get misses there. These are details by though.
Speaker 1: These are details that DOC can help with. DOC can
Speaker 1: help get them to buy in to sprinting back and
Speaker 1: transition defense and communicating. DOC can help by getting their
Speaker 1: guards to be more willing to commit to the work
Speaker 1: at the point of attack. Better closeouts. Teams score one
Speaker 1: point zero eight points per spot at possession against the Bucks.
Speaker 1: That's bottom ten in the league. That's an effort thing,
Speaker 1: closing out, containing funneling in the right direction. Every team
Speaker 1: has a help scheme set up. You're expected to give
Speaker 1: up close out opportunities. That's how it works. You run
Speaker 1: a ball screen, you're coming over to tag the roller.
Speaker 1: There's a skip pass to the left corner. You have
Speaker 1: a job. The majority of those teams they want you
Speaker 1: to close out high side and funnel towards the baseline
Speaker 1: because that's where if you can push them behind the backboard,
Speaker 1: it's an easier secondary rotation. Every team depending on the
Speaker 1: spot on the floor, depending on the scouting report. There's
Speaker 1: a lot of guys too where it's like, oh, this
Speaker 1: guy's a lefty, always drives left. You want to close
Speaker 1: out to the left side, even regardless of which side
Speaker 1: of the floor he's on. There's a defensive game plan
Speaker 1: when it comes to closing out to shooters on the
Speaker 1: weak side. The Bucks are bad at it. That's something
Speaker 1: that Doc can help clean up. And then lastly, paint rotations.
Speaker 1: The Bucks allow fifty two points per paint points per
Speaker 1: game in the paint, which is bottom ten in the league,
Speaker 1: which with a Jannison Brook Lopez team.
Speaker 2: Is just bad.
Speaker 1: Right, So these are all like again, at the end
Speaker 1: of the day, this is on the players. Notice I'm
Speaker 1: not talking about any sort of gigantic schematic change. I
Speaker 1: don't think Doc's gonna come in and flip their whole
Speaker 1: system over. But if you can just get them to
Speaker 1: buy in, which means again, it's on the players. If
Speaker 1: they all do their jobs better, this team builds themselves
Speaker 1: more margin for air because Dami Giannis are awesome and
Speaker 1: they're gonna be a devastating playoff duo. But in order
Speaker 1: to beat the best teams in the league, they can't
Speaker 1: afford to hemorrhage points and transition defense, hemorrhage points in
Speaker 1: pick and roll, hemorrhage points with bad closeouts, and hemorrhage
Speaker 1: points not making extra rotations into the paint when guys
Speaker 1: are driving.
Speaker 2: That's the thing. Are you good enough to beat Boston? Yes?
Speaker 1: Are you good enough to beat Boston when you're hemorrhaging
Speaker 1: points elsewhere?
Speaker 2: No?
Speaker 1: That's where Doc can come in and kind of clean
Speaker 1: things up. So again insummation obviously in a vacuum, as
Speaker 1: you kind of zoom out and you look at everything,
Speaker 1: you're like, oh, this doesn't really make a lot of sense.
Speaker 1: But Doc's a better coach for this group than Adrian Griffin.
Speaker 1: And if you can just get everybody to do their jobs,
Speaker 1: the Bucks will be better and they will get more
Speaker 1: were out of this season than they would have otherwise.
Speaker 1: That's why I look at it as a good move,
Speaker 1: even if it's not the perfect move, and even if
Speaker 1: it doesn't make sense in the grand scheme of things.
Speaker 1: Question number three, Jason, is Terry Rosier enough to put
Speaker 1: the Miami Heat onto the same tier with Boston and Milwaukee. No,
Speaker 1: of course not, but it does make them better and
Speaker 1: most importantly, it maintains their flexibility moving forward. Miami is
Speaker 1: telling you they don't think Dejonte Murray is worth whatever
Speaker 1: the cost to pay is. They don't think DeMar DeRos
Speaker 1: In or Zach Levine are gonna be transformative players for
Speaker 1: the Miami offense. Now you can argue whether or not
Speaker 1: they let Dame slip. That's a whole other discussion. And again,
Speaker 1: similar to the conversation around Adrian Griffin, like, yes, we
Speaker 1: zoom out some of this doesn't make sense. But as
Speaker 1: we zoom in to right now, Lukhu's available, Terry Rozier,
Speaker 1: You're gonna get a good chunk of what a Dejonte
Speaker 1: Murray brings to the table and for less on a
Speaker 1: shorter term deal. So I understand that right now, specifically
Speaker 1: on a basketball front, how does Terry Rozier make the
Speaker 1: Heat better? First and foremost, he fundamentally changes the physical
Speaker 1: profile of the team. I've talked a lot about this
Speaker 1: with the Lakers, specifically, as it pertains to Bruce Brown, like,
Speaker 1: when you have like a really good athletic front court,
Speaker 1: like a bam Adebio and Jimmy Butler, or a Lebron
Speaker 1: James and Anthony Davis, or a Jannis and Tenna Kumbo
Speaker 1: and Brook Lopez, but you have lesser athletic players on
Speaker 1: the perimeter, you can still run into issues because it's
Speaker 1: just really hard for those guys to cover all the gaps.
Speaker 1: We've seen that in a resounding way with the Bucks
Speaker 1: and the Lakers this year right, So specifically, what I
Speaker 1: like is you're giving yourself a really really good athlete
Speaker 1: at the guard position who also can play both sides
Speaker 1: of the floor. Alongside Jimmy Butler and bam Adebayo. You're
Speaker 1: changing the athletic profile of the team. You're making it
Speaker 1: so that you are incredibly athletic in all three position groups,
Speaker 1: at least within your core lineups. I really really like
Speaker 1: that piece, And like, again, at the guard position, it's
Speaker 1: different we talked about at the forward position. In center position,
Speaker 1: it's like matchup attacking in the post, it's like rim protection.
Speaker 1: It's like the ability to switch on to smaller guards
Speaker 1: and hold your own. It's like help defense. Low man possessions,
Speaker 1: tagging rollers, blocking shots, cleaning up the defensive glass. Weeks
Speaker 1: had rotations at the guard position. It's like a lot
Speaker 1: of just point of attack stuff. It's like generating dribble
Speaker 1: penetration while containing dribble penetration on the other end. That's
Speaker 1: like the fundamental athletic imposition of a really good athletic guard.
Speaker 2: Right. And Terry Rozier is just an excellent athlete at
Speaker 2: his position. Right.
Speaker 1: The Memphis game last night, obviously, the Heat lost, bad loss.
Speaker 1: That to me is just regular season basketball, right, And
Speaker 1: Memphis is one of those what do I keep telling
Speaker 1: you guys about young athletic teams in January that don't
Speaker 1: really have anything to lose.
Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 1: We've seen this with the Jazz, We're seeing it with
Speaker 1: Memphis now, Like even Portland has had their moments like that.
Speaker 1: These young athletic teams are going to have a lot
Speaker 1: of success in the NBA regular season, especially around this
Speaker 1: time of year when teams aren't playing hard consistently. Right,
Speaker 1: But in that game, terror Rose Yeer was beating people
Speaker 1: off the dribble, doing it in pick and roll. We
Speaker 1: talked about how important it is in pick and roll
Speaker 1: to engage the screen defender to open up other pieces. Right,
Speaker 1: That's what allows bam Adebayo to get behind the pick
Speaker 1: and roll defender. The only way to prevent a screen
Speaker 1: defender from keeping the roller and the ball handler in
Speaker 1: front is to engage him fully. Terry can do that
Speaker 1: by getting real downhill rim pressure and ball screens. And
Speaker 1: then on switches. There is a play in the second
Speaker 1: half terror rose Year gets Xavier Tillman on a switch,
Speaker 1: just a nasty dribble move gets right by Xavier Tillman
Speaker 1: all the way to the basket. That's an important part
Speaker 1: of beating pick and roll coverages that end in switches.
Speaker 1: So like, that's the offensive side of things, and then
Speaker 1: on the defensive end of the floor, it's just a
Speaker 1: better athlete at the guard position that can contend with
Speaker 1: the other great athletes around the league. The second and
Speaker 1: like again, look at it just specifically with the player context.
Speaker 1: It just adds another two way athlete to your position
Speaker 1: group where you did not have a two way athlete.
Speaker 1: Now you have bam As kind of like that defensive
Speaker 1: full crum, offensive full crum. Then you have Jimmy As
Speaker 1: like that versatile ford. Then you have Terry Rosier is
Speaker 1: your two way athlete guard, which again, as I've said,
Speaker 1: one of the most important archetypes in the league. You
Speaker 1: can kind of start to see the team starting to
Speaker 1: take shape with like a skill guard like Tyler Harrow,
Speaker 1: and then an athlete guard like Terry Rozier, right, my
Speaker 1: versatile defensive coverage guru and bam and a bio that
Speaker 1: can switch and drop and high drop and blitz and
Speaker 1: do all these things. And then I've got Jimmy and
Speaker 1: like think about what Heimai Hawki's junior can do is
Speaker 1: more of like a matchup attacking forward, and Jimmy can
Speaker 1: guard on the perimeter. It's like you start to see
Speaker 1: things just start to make sense from the athletic profile
Speaker 1: of the team.
Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 1: Secondly, secondary shot creation. He's a slightly above average pick
Speaker 1: and roll shot creator in Charlotte, but we have to
Speaker 1: remember it's Charlotte, right, four hundred and eighty five points
Speaker 1: on four hundred nine tenty four pick and rolls, just
Speaker 1: under a point per possession fifty fifth percent tile, but
Speaker 1: most of that was related to his passing and who
Speaker 1: he was passing the ball to. Terry shot fifty percent
Speaker 1: when he shot in pick and roll fifty eight percent
Speaker 1: in effective field goal percentage when we weigh it for threes,
Speaker 1: that's one point one to one points per pick and
Speaker 1: roll where he shoots, that's in the ninety third percentile.
Speaker 1: He also gets one point three points per his own
Speaker 1: shot attempt out of ISO, so like he can score
Speaker 1: the basketball. And again even when it comes to the
Speaker 1: stuff with Charlotte and the rest of the roster. Even
Speaker 1: despite that, he had a three to one assist a
Speaker 1: turnover ratio six point six assists per game, two point
Speaker 1: two turnovers per game, So totally solid. Secondary shot creator
Speaker 1: gives you an additional offensive weapon on a team that
Speaker 1: was a bottom ten offense before the trade. He scored
Speaker 1: twenty three points per game in Charlotte.
Speaker 2: So here's the thing.
Speaker 1: In summary, Do I think it's Do I think he
Speaker 1: puts Miami on the same tier with Boston or Milwaukee. No,
Speaker 1: but that guy wasn't really available except for Dame this
Speaker 1: last summer, right, So you made a smaller move that
Speaker 1: maintained some of your future flexibility, made you better in
Speaker 1: the short run. But yeah, I mean you're gonna be
Speaker 1: outgunned again when you get into some of these late
Speaker 1: playoff rounds. I do think that it closes the gap
Speaker 1: somewhat and does give Miami more of a puncher's chance.
Speaker 1: But yeah, like, obviously we're we'd be lying to ourselves
Speaker 1: if we think if we think Terry Rogier is the
Speaker 1: difference between that Boston Celtics team and this Miami Heat team,
Speaker 1: or that Milwaukee Bucks team in this Miami Heat team.
Speaker 2: But I do like the deal.
Speaker 1: I like the deal because it makes the Heat more interesting,
Speaker 1: it makes them better, and it maintains their ability to
Speaker 1: make a move in the future. Question number four, Jason,
Speaker 1: the seventy six Ers have won six games in a row,
Speaker 1: have the fifth best record in the league, and Joel
Speaker 1: Embiide is having one of the best seasons in NBA history.
Speaker 1: Why don't you take Philly more seriously as a championship tender. Okay,
Speaker 1: first of all, I want to be clear, I think
Speaker 1: Boston and Denver are the two best teams in the league.
Speaker 1: I think both of them have good chances to win
Speaker 1: the title. After that, from three Milwaukee all the way
Speaker 1: to Golden State or whatever, as the eleventh or twelfth,
Speaker 1: whatever you want to call in that list, they all
Speaker 1: have a very small chance of winning the title in
Speaker 1: my opinion, Like, what have you seen from Milwaukee that
Speaker 1: makes you think they can beat Boston this year? Really
Speaker 1: in the big picture, right, Like, there's a clear gap there.
Speaker 1: So even though it's three Milwaukee and two Boston, that
Speaker 1: doesn't mean they're right next to each other in terms
Speaker 1: of their capability of winning a championship. Boston is significantly
Speaker 1: more well equipped in a lot of the phases of
Speaker 1: the game to win the title. We are now splitting
Speaker 1: hairs between smaller chances from there. It's about sorting through
Speaker 1: regular season noise, right. It's just something that I've talked
Speaker 1: to you guys about on the show. There is if
Speaker 1: you want to have a show where people are way
Speaker 1: more invested in.
Speaker 2: Regular season results, those shows are out there.
Speaker 1: That's just not the way that I kind of see
Speaker 1: the NBA championship landscape for starters. This Philly regular season
Speaker 1: has some major caveats. Phillies' opponents have won just forty
Speaker 1: seven point eight percent of their games. They've played the
Speaker 1: second easiest schedule in the NBA so far this season.
Speaker 2: That plays a big role in their record.
Speaker 1: As a matter of fact, just nine of Phillies twenty
Speaker 1: nine wins this year have been against teams that are
Speaker 1: over five hundred. The Los Angeles Lakers have won eleven
Speaker 1: such games. So like, there hasn't exactly been this overwhelming
Speaker 1: evidence in this Philly regular season that they are a
Speaker 1: dominant team. They're a really good team that has played
Speaker 1: a really weak schedule, and so they look like one
Speaker 1: of those unbelievable regular season dominant teams.
Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 1: Secondly, Joel Embiid, as the best player on a playoff
Speaker 1: team has been super underwhelming to this point in his career.
Speaker 1: That's not a hot take. Yes, there have been injuries,
Speaker 1: Yes shots haven't fallen, but the reality is his playoff
Speaker 1: impact has gone down a level in his career compared
Speaker 1: to the regular season regardless of circumstance. That's what's happened
Speaker 1: time and time again.
Speaker 2: That's reality. Right.
Speaker 1: Three, Tyrese Maxey is your best perimeter player and he's
Speaker 1: a very good young guard player I'm super excited about
Speaker 1: in the long run. But last year, in a secondary
Speaker 1: role off of James Harden, his true shooting percentage plummeted
Speaker 1: by six percent compared to the regular season. Why Because
Speaker 1: the playoffs are more physical, they're more it's more difficult
Speaker 1: to knock down those long distant jump shots. The two
Speaker 1: way imposition in the physicality wears you down and makes
Speaker 1: offense harder. This is a this is not a Tyres
Speaker 1: Maxey thing. This is a consistent thing we see. So
Speaker 1: you combine that with his youth. Right Like, again, he
Speaker 1: struggled transitioning from the regular season to the postseason last
Speaker 1: year as his second option on the perimeter. Now he's
Speaker 1: the number one option. Now he's getting the other team's
Speaker 1: best perimeter defender in every single lineup. So it's just
Speaker 1: a little bit more of a long shot. These kinds
Speaker 1: of things take growing pains. Look at the guys who'll
Speaker 1: be competing against to get out of the Eastern Conference.
Speaker 1: He'll be going against Damian Lillard. He'll be going against
Speaker 1: Drew Holliday and Derek White. Even Terry Rogier has played
Speaker 1: in a Game seven of an Eastern Conference Finals against
Speaker 1: Lebron James. Even he has been in wars that are
Speaker 1: different than the wars that Tyres Maxy has faced. So like,
Speaker 1: there is no singular thing I can point to with
Speaker 1: Philly anywhere on that roster where I go, Oh, I've
Speaker 1: seen that work in the playoffs, before there's hypotheticals like
Speaker 1: the one point of optimism for Philly is like maybe
Speaker 1: emb just figures it out and kills everybody, right, And
Speaker 1: but for the record, I actually do think that will
Speaker 1: eventually happen. I believe Joel Embiid is going to break
Speaker 1: through in the postseason eventually, But in this singular season,
Speaker 1: I think there are better bets. When I look at Denver,
Speaker 1: I can literally look at like, oh, I know, Jokichen
Speaker 1: Murray is impossible to guard, Like even Bam and Jimmy
Speaker 1: couldn't do it. Okay, they have a five man group
Speaker 1: that makes perfect sense that they're going to start and
Speaker 1: close the most majority of games with. Okay, that makes sense.
Speaker 1: I know their late gaming execution works in the postseason. Okay,
Speaker 1: I know Contavious Colwell, Pope and Aaron Gordon can guard
Speaker 1: the opposing best players and do a really good job.
Speaker 1: That's just a way way safer bet than those question
Speaker 1: marks have talked about with Philly Boston. They have the
Speaker 1: most talented roster in the league, and even with Tatum's limitations,
Speaker 1: he's clearly been a better playoff player than Joel Embiid
Speaker 1: to this point. So I have a more talented team
Speaker 1: and a guy in Jason Tatum who's been a better
Speaker 1: playoff player than Joel Embiid. That's pretty significant when I'm
Speaker 1: weighing title chances between Boston and Philly Milwaukee. Giannis is
Speaker 1: a much better playoff player than Joel Embiid. And I
Speaker 1: trust Dame more as a playoff initiator than I trust
Speaker 1: Tyres Maxy. That's pretty clear cut. Guys number four, the Clippers,
Speaker 1: they have their question marks, but I know Kawhi works
Speaker 1: in the playoffs, and this is the best talented roster
Speaker 1: that I've seen around Kawhi in a playoff runt. That
Speaker 1: to me is a safe for bet. The Los Angeles Lakers.
Speaker 1: Anthony Davis has proven himself to be a better playoff
Speaker 1: player than Joel Embiid. That's just a fact. And I
Speaker 1: know Lebron James is going to find a way to
Speaker 1: be impactful in that stage if he's healthy. Specifically, I've
Speaker 1: seen Lebron James and Anthony Davis when a lot of
Speaker 1: playoff series make two conference finals in a hoist the
Speaker 1: Larry O'Brien Trophy.
Speaker 2: I know that works.
Speaker 1: Even after that is where you start to see why
Speaker 1: I have Philly above, It's like, Okay, Minnesota, you're betting
Speaker 1: on a twenty two year old and Anthony Edwards and
Speaker 1: Karl Anthony Towns to out execute experienced superstars in a
Speaker 1: slow down playoff game series. Yeah, that to me is
Speaker 1: a big question mark the Thunder. They're young and small.
Speaker 1: That's like a death sentence in the NBA postseason the heat.
Speaker 1: No matter how good Jimmy and Bamar, they always end
Speaker 1: up out gunned from a talent perspective when they get
Speaker 1: to the later rounds. Honestly, the one team that I
Speaker 1: have to kind of reevaluate as it pertains to Philly
Speaker 1: is Phoenix. Phoenix is on my radar is a team
Speaker 1: that we need to kind of reevaluate. They've played fourteen
Speaker 1: straight games with Bradley Beal in the lineup and they're
Speaker 1: eleven and three in that group of games. So like,
Speaker 1: and we know Kevin Durant and Devin Booker can score
Speaker 1: in the postseason, So Phoenix I need to reevaluate. We're
Speaker 1: gonna do a deep dive on them soon and probably
Speaker 1: move them significantly higher up on the list. But even
Speaker 1: with them, it's like they're small and they're just a
Speaker 1: worse version of the Clippers and Celtics. So it just
Speaker 1: feels like an incredible long shot that they would suddenly
Speaker 1: just rise above the pile and end up poisting the
Speaker 1: trophy at the end of the day. But again, like
Speaker 1: the way I do things on this show is I'm
Speaker 1: looking for playoff like specific trends that I know work
Speaker 1: in the playoffs. Why do you think I haven't written
Speaker 1: off the Warriors. I'm like, Oh, Steph works in the playoffs.
Speaker 1: Make a couple, make a couple of roster tweaks, Draymond
Speaker 1: gets back in the lineup and fixes the defense. You know,
Speaker 1: maybe they get rid of some of the younger players
Speaker 1: that are kind of disrupting chemistry. Maybe things turn around,
Speaker 1: and it's like, I know Steph works in the playoffs.
Speaker 1: I know it does. It worked last year's they beat
Speaker 1: the Kings and it took a super like a struggling
Speaker 1: Warriors team to a sixth game against the Lakers. It
Speaker 1: worked when they hoisted the trophy in twenty twenty two,
Speaker 1: It worked the last time everyone was healthy in twenty nineteen.
Speaker 2: Right, So, like I.
Speaker 1: I'm always going to look for those trends that I
Speaker 1: know work in the postseason. When I look at Philly,
Speaker 1: I see a team with a great record that only
Speaker 1: has nine wins against team that are above five hundred,
Speaker 1: with a with their best player being a historical playoff
Speaker 1: underachiever and a very young guard who is their primary
Speaker 1: playoff initiator. That's a lot of question marks and there
Speaker 1: is no singular thing you can point to where you're
Speaker 1: like that I know works, and so they're a long shot.
Speaker 1: But again, before Philly fans get upset, everybody's a long shot.
Speaker 1: In my opinion, outside of the top two teams. I
Speaker 1: think we're getting to Denver Boston finals. That's what I
Speaker 1: think we're getting. But all of these other teams have
Speaker 1: a long shot.
Speaker 2: You can see.
Speaker 1: It's like, oh, Milwaukee, what if Damon Giann has just
Speaker 1: become completely unguardable and they defend well enough. What if
Speaker 1: Lebron James and Anthony Davis are healthy, they're re engaged,
Speaker 1: they do exactly what they did last year and just
Speaker 1: bully their way to the conference finals and maybe somehow
Speaker 1: they upset Denver right like the Clippers. It's like everyone say,
Speaker 1: he's healthy, James Harden has his best playoff run as
Speaker 1: he's getting the third best perimeter defender on every group,
Speaker 1: and Kawhi Leonard just cyborgs his way to the NBA
Speaker 1: Finals and somehow they beat Boston. Like, you can draw
Speaker 1: a line for these teams, but they're all long shots.
Speaker 1: And I'm just saying some of these long shots are
Speaker 1: better long shots than Philly for the reasons that I
Speaker 1: laid out for you guys, all right. Fourth question, Jason
Speaker 1: D'Angelo Russell is averaging twenty seven points and seven assists
Speaker 1: on fifty four percent from the field fifty one percent
Speaker 1: from three, ninety four percent from the line over his
Speaker 1: last six games since rejoining the starting lineup. What does
Speaker 1: this mean for the Lakers in the approaching trade deadline? Now,
Speaker 1: first of all, I've been saying for a while that
Speaker 1: Dangel Russell is a very good basketball player who's just
Speaker 1: a poor use of resources for the Lakers. Here's why.
Speaker 1: For a six game stretch in January, when you get
Speaker 1: to play three teams that are below five hundred, he's
Speaker 1: an awesome innings zeter I said this before the season.
Speaker 1: One of the reasons why I actually thought the Lakers
Speaker 1: would be a better regular season team than they were
Speaker 1: is I'm like, oh, D'Angelo Russell. Forget about the playoff stuff.
Speaker 1: The dude's great for regular season basketball. You can have
Speaker 1: him until February help them win a lot of games. So, like,
Speaker 1: I already knew that DLO could do this, right, But
Speaker 1: two things are true. One, you're not running your offense
Speaker 1: through d Lo in the playoffs. We just know that
Speaker 1: when he runs into like really athletic and physical teams,
Speaker 1: his ability to make shots and a drive advantage situations
Speaker 1: goes down a big level, right. And then two, Lebron
Speaker 1: and ad are just going to take more control in
Speaker 1: those situations. So all of a sudden, that specific thing
Speaker 1: that Dlo's great at becomes significantly less valuable when we
Speaker 1: get into April and May. And then two, his athleticism
Speaker 1: or lack thereof, and his lack of focus on defense
Speaker 1: causes his impact in the other areas of game to
Speaker 1: go down, especially when he's not scoring twenty seven points. Right,
Speaker 1: So what is his value?
Speaker 2: Then? What is the with dl and what he brings
Speaker 2: to the table. What is his value?
Speaker 1: Ideally for a championship level team, you'd want him to
Speaker 1: be your sixth man, the guy who'd come in and
Speaker 1: run the offense for your bench groups. But then the
Speaker 1: question becomes, do you want to use a seventeen million
Speaker 1: dollars salary slot on a sixth man while you're also
Speaker 1: not nearly good enough at the two in the three
Speaker 1: to compete with the best teams in the league, Because
Speaker 1: that's the thing before you go, oh, Jason Dilo is
Speaker 1: a starter. We've talked about this, Austin de Loo, Torreon. Fine,
Speaker 1: for the regular season, you're not beating the best teams
Speaker 1: in the league in a seven game series if that's
Speaker 1: your one, two, three, So to me, in a championship team,
Speaker 1: DL is a sixth man. But you're using seventeen million
Speaker 1: dollars in salary and a six man when you've got
Speaker 1: a guy making the biannual exception in Torrian Prince playing
Speaker 1: the three, and you've spent most of the season with
Speaker 1: a two guard named Cam Reddish who's a veteran minimum
Speaker 1: guy playing right.
Speaker 2: You need upgrades there.
Speaker 1: So it doesn't make sense to have that seventeen million
Speaker 1: dollars sixth man unless you already have your core five down,
Speaker 1: which the Lakers do not. Becomes a misallocation of resources.
Speaker 1: Right then you start to ask yourself, would I be
Speaker 1: better off, if I had Gabe Vincent just kind of
Speaker 1: when he gets back from his injury takeover is like
Speaker 1: that bench guard who kind of leads that point of
Speaker 1: the offense and use the Angela Russell as a vehicle
Speaker 1: to upgrade the two in the three. So let's look
Speaker 1: at the second half of this. Bud Jason d Loo
Speaker 1: is better than Austin reeves, why not trade Austin, Because
Speaker 1: that's the thing if we're talking about it, is Austin
Speaker 1: Dilo Torreon is not good enough and we need to
Speaker 1: upgrade something in there. And I've got these two skill guards. Okay,
Speaker 1: what if I trade Austin and I have d Lo
Speaker 1: as my one and then I upgrade the two in
Speaker 1: the three somehow. Well, there's several reasons why that's not
Speaker 1: the right approach. One, Austin has clearly demonstrated himself to
Speaker 1: be a better playoff player with more matchup resiliency. He's
Speaker 1: just better at doing the little things. So when Lebron
Speaker 1: and Ad kind of command the offense, he's a better
Speaker 1: connective piece. He's a better like playing passing lanes, he's
Speaker 1: better at taking charges, he's better at you know, attacking closeouts,
Speaker 1: and just kind of being that connective piece on offense, right, Like,
Speaker 1: he just finds a way to be more impactful in
Speaker 1: a smaller role, Whereas with d Lo, it's like, if
Speaker 1: you give him the keys of the offense in January,
Speaker 1: he's obviously better than Austin at that. But once the
Speaker 1: athleticism goes up and Lebron and ad have to play
Speaker 1: vullyball more and all these other things change all of
Speaker 1: a sudden, Austin's impact goes up a level. And I
Speaker 1: say matchup resiliency because no matter who the Lakers played
Speaker 1: last year, you never felt like you were bad with
Speaker 1: Austin on the floor, But with d Lo, it was
Speaker 1: like some nights it worked, some nights it didn't. Some
Speaker 1: matchups it worked, some matchups that did it. So that's
Speaker 1: reason number one. Secondly, Austin's salary is lower, so it's
Speaker 1: just harder to use a salary filler. You'd have to
Speaker 1: include more players if you want to go get a
Speaker 1: good player. Austin makes twelve million, what are you going
Speaker 1: to do for the rest of the salary? There makes
Speaker 1: seventeen and change. That's just bigger. It's a bigger number
Speaker 1: to fill up more of that salary. Filler gap and
Speaker 1: then third, Austin is just more important to the future
Speaker 1: of the Lakers. He's a couple of years younger, he
Speaker 1: just signed a four year contract extension on an affordable number,
Speaker 1: whereas Dlo will become an expiring contract next year. He's
Speaker 1: just more value. That's why nbagms are asking for Austin
Speaker 1: in these trades. They view him as a more valuable asset,
Speaker 1: which is why the Lakers would prefer to keep it right. So,
Speaker 1: it really is this simple. We know Austin Dilo Torrian
Speaker 1: is too small and unathletic to compete with the best
Speaker 1: teams in the league. We know an upgrade has to
Speaker 1: be made somewhere in that group. DLO is simply the
Speaker 1: best vehicle with which to make that happen. Now, maybe
Speaker 1: the Lakers will change their mind and trade Austin instead
Speaker 1: because Delo is playing really well. I personally think that
Speaker 1: would be a mistake, but hopefully that kind of breaks
Speaker 1: it down. Like I never thought Dilo wasn't capable of this.
Speaker 1: I never thought Dilo wasn't a good player. I just
Speaker 1: look at him as the obvious vehicle via his salary,
Speaker 1: via the length of his contract, via some of his
Speaker 1: playoff limitations and via his redundancy with Austin, I viewed
Speaker 1: him as the clear opportunity or the vehicle I should
Speaker 1: say to make an improvement in that starting five. All right, guys,
Speaker 1: that's all I have for this episode. We're gonna be
Speaker 1: back later this afternoon with our breakdown with Jovon Buja
Speaker 1: and some of the dramas arounding the Lakers around the deadline,
Speaker 1: and then we'll have some more stuff tomorrow, game breakdowns
Speaker 1: from tonight's games. As always, I appreciate you, guys, and
Speaker 1: I'll see you that the volume