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Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros. It's time to place

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Speaker 1: your bets.

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Speaker 2: It is meet Joey p Joe Pizervia and his championship.

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Speaker 1: Sunday. It's time to play some DFS.

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Speaker 2: Two games on the slate, the Kansasity Chiefs and the

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Speaker 2: Baltimore Ravens, and of course you've also got the San

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Speaker 2: Francisco forty nine ers hosting those upstart Lions. What a

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Speaker 2: great time it is to be alive. What a great

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Speaker 2: time it is to talk to.

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Speaker 1: Derek Brown de bro.

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Speaker 2: Derek, you're the King of Bros. I know that's a heavy,

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Speaker 2: heavy burden to wear. The crown is very heavy upon

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Speaker 2: your head. Today we're gonna look ahead of the games,

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Speaker 2: give everybody the picks. Don't forget to use our optimizer

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Speaker 2: fancy ros dot com slash optimizer so you can generate

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Speaker 2: as many lineups as you possibly can to get ready

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Speaker 2: for Sunday. And also don't forget to download the Betting

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Speaker 2: Pros app. Use that bad boy and make sure you're

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Speaker 2: subscribing to the Betting Pros YouTube channel Ring the belt

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Speaker 2: that goes dang for notifications because it feels good. Baltimore

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Speaker 2: hosting the underdog Kansas City Chiefs.

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Speaker 1: I love that.

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Speaker 2: I love saying the underdog Kansasy Chiefs said it last week,

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Speaker 2: made money on the money line.

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Speaker 1: Probably gonna do it again.

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Speaker 2: The numbers forty four and a half for this one

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Speaker 2: right now in the consensus. So let's talk about the pieces.

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Speaker 2: So is it Mahomes again? We go in Pachecko, we

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Speaker 2: going to Rice? Are we going to Kelsey front of

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Speaker 2: the big Day? Or is it the other side of

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Speaker 2: this game? Is it mister Lamar Jackson, the aka MVP?

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Speaker 3: So I think off the top Joe, looking at the

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Speaker 3: two game slates, it's really easy to be different. You

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Speaker 3: toss out a lot of your correlations, a lot of

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Speaker 3: your rules like don't play the DSc versus the quarterback,

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Speaker 3: all that kind of stuff with the two games slate.

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Speaker 3: But the big thing I want to hit on this

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Speaker 3: is that playing the two gamers these short slates, it's

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Speaker 3: your lineups need to tell a story. Especially if you're

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Speaker 3: a handbill bro like me. You want your lineups to

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Speaker 3: tell a story of how you think these games go

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Speaker 3: and how can these games go sideways? So, looking at

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Speaker 3: through that lens, I am fading Patrick Mahomes in this game.

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Speaker 3: I think that, like, look on this game. If I'm

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Speaker 3: getting contrarium, we're gonna talk about the next game. I

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Speaker 3: think that going with Jared Golf and not playing Mahomes

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Speaker 3: is another way to go. But looking at this game specifically,

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Speaker 3: I mean, I love Lamar Jackson man. I think that

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Speaker 3: he's the best quarterback play on the slate.

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Speaker 1: I know I'm not.

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Speaker 3: Breaking ground with that, but what I think that gives

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Speaker 3: him slate breaking upside is the rushing utility man. In

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Speaker 3: five career playoff games, this man has surpassed fifty four

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Speaker 3: rushing yards in four games. He's gone above the century

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Speaker 3: mark three times, Joe, including last week. So you're talking

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Speaker 3: about a guy that can break the slate. You're not

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Speaker 3: taking down any tournaments without him. That's Lamar Jackson. Play him, naked,

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Speaker 3: stack him however you want to do it.

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Speaker 1: But I'm fading Batter Mahomes.

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Speaker 3: I like his pass catches and I like the Chiefs,

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Speaker 3: but I'm not playing Batchler Mahomes this week. But moving

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Speaker 3: over to running backs man, yeah, like it's an easy

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Speaker 3: case to make for Isaiah Pachecko. I know he's slightly

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Speaker 3: dinged up. I think he plays. I think he plays

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Speaker 3: his full time role. And if you look at Pachecko,

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Speaker 3: the volume's been there, the production's been there, and the

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Speaker 3: way that you beat the Baltimore Ravens again, telling a

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Speaker 3: story is that if Kansas City wins, and this is

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Speaker 3: the story I'm telling my lineups, Kansas City wins, it's

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Speaker 3: gonna be a massive dose of Isaiah Pachecko and Travis Kelcey.

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Speaker 3: So Pachecko's firmly in play here Baltimore since week thirteen,

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Speaker 3: the ninth highest explosive run rate allowed, third highest yards

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Speaker 3: before contact per attempt. If you're not playing Lamar, then

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Speaker 3: I think you need to consider playing one of the

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Speaker 3: Baltimore running backs because we know that you can run

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Speaker 3: on Kansas City. And the way that Lamar fails is

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Speaker 3: what we've seen before. Joe Lamar not getting there means okay,

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Speaker 3: maybe Gus dives for two touchdowns, maybe they're in trailing

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Speaker 3: game script and the touchdowns go to Justice Hill, who

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Speaker 3: last week played fifty seven percent of the snaps, got

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Speaker 3: fifteen touches, almost eighty total yards. He gets into the

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Speaker 3: end zone. That we're talking about a guy who is

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Speaker 3: going to come in lowly rostered. It can make the optimal,

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Speaker 3: but Gus and Justice Hill are firmly in play. Again,

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Speaker 3: if you're playing Lamar, you're stacking in with one of

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Speaker 3: Zay Flowers or Odell Beckham. Mark Andrews is in play,

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Speaker 3: but looking at pricing on both sides, I'm sorry, I

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Speaker 3: can't play Mark Andrews over George Kittle. If you want

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Speaker 3: to play both, you're going double tight end. I think

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Speaker 3: double tight end is fine, but I think there is

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Speaker 3: an easy way where Mark Andrews has a decent game

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Speaker 3: if he plays. Assuming he plays, but maybe he doesn't

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Speaker 3: make the optimal because maybe he's a limited snap player.

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Speaker 1: Maybe Isaiah Likely and him both split the routes up.

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Speaker 1: That's the hard part.

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Speaker 3: In large field GPPs, I'm more likely to go that way,

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Speaker 3: but if I'm playing Lamar, it's probably with one of

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Speaker 3: Zay Flowers or Odell Beckham. Flowers has been one of

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Speaker 3: the guys that look Baltimore has gone to versus too

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Speaker 3: high in Kansas City versus week seventeen, or since Week seventeen,

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Speaker 3: has run too high on eighty one percent of the

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Speaker 3: coverage steps. So since week twelve, Flowers leads the team

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Speaker 3: with a twenty one percent target share against too high,

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Speaker 3: So he's gonna get usage. I know people are hearing that,

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Speaker 3: they're gonna say.

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Speaker 1: Oh, well, what about Lagerius Sneed. Lagerius Steed didn't even

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Speaker 1: shadow Stefan Diggs last week, so I don't think he's

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Speaker 1: gonna follow freaking Zay Flowers. So I think Zay Flowers

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Speaker 1: is a fantastic play. And again, I was on Odell

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Speaker 1: Beckham last week. He Baltimore didn't need him. They crushed Houston. Basically,

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Speaker 1: they just put him on the shelf and said, we

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Speaker 1: don't need you.

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Speaker 3: We're running the ball. This is doing all the things

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Speaker 3: and stuff. But if you look at Odell beckham thirty

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Speaker 3: six percent routes share last week, again, that's because of

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Speaker 3: the blowout. In the first half of that game, his

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Speaker 3: route share was at fifty percent. So in a closer

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Speaker 3: game script, again, your lineup's telling a story, Odell Beckham

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Speaker 3: is gonna get more playing time. But if you're saying, Okay,

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Speaker 3: I think that Baltimore blows out Kansas City, or that

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Speaker 3: this is a runaway victory because we've seen Baltimore truck

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Speaker 3: stick plenty of teams already this year, then you're saying, okay, well,

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Speaker 3: maybe Beckham gets put on the shelf, Maybe he scores

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Speaker 3: a touchdown, maybe he gets like eight or nine DK points,

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Speaker 3: and maybe that makes the optimal probably doesn't. But again,

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Speaker 3: we know where the ball is going on the Kansas

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Speaker 3: City side. It's Pacheco, it's Kelsey, it's Rashi Rice. I'm

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Speaker 3: curious where Rashee Rice comes in that this week. Again,

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Speaker 3: we're gonna wait on practice reports and all that kind

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Speaker 3: of stuff. He got dinged up last week and only

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Speaker 3: played sixty four.

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Speaker 1: Percent of the snaps. So is he fully healthy right now?

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Speaker 1: That kind of went not.

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Speaker 2: But it's not gonna matter because he is the only guy.

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Speaker 2: He's this is it. This is trying to go to

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Speaker 2: the super Bowl. Look, rookie, get you better figure it out.

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Speaker 2: You've got to play. I think that's that's the story

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Speaker 2: with Rice.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and I don't disagree. Man.

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Speaker 3: So I think he's in play whether or not you

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Speaker 3: play Patrick Mahomes because the volume is there, assuming that

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Speaker 3: he will be a full go and if.

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Speaker 1: You're not playing for she Rice.

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Speaker 3: Travis Kelcey Again, I don't need to, like, you know,

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Speaker 3: twist anybody's arm to play Travis Kelcey.

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Speaker 1: I will say this.

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Speaker 3: Since week ten Baltimore has given up the tenth most

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Speaker 3: fantasy points and the fourth most receiving yards per game

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Speaker 3: to opposing tight ends. And that will also lead me

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Speaker 3: down the Noah Gray well, because Noah Gray has been

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Speaker 3: utilized pretty decently against Cover three and Cover six, which

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Speaker 3: since Week seventeen, Baltimore is used on sixty two percent

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Speaker 3: of the defensive snaps against those coverage types.

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Speaker 1: Gray has a twenty two.

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Speaker 3: Percent target per route run one point seven yards per

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Speaker 3: route run. And I'll go off the board here a

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Speaker 3: little bit, Joe. We're looking for value, We're looking for

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Speaker 3: a way to be different on the two gamer. I

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Speaker 3: think that Kadarius Tony is also in play. You look

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Speaker 3: at the usage of me Cole Harman last week. Dude

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Speaker 3: got two opportunities in the red zone that could have

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Speaker 3: easily been two touchdowns. Now, in true me Cole fashion,

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Speaker 3: he flubbed both of them. But with Kadarius Tony, if

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Speaker 3: he plays this week, he could get that role. And

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Speaker 3: again talking about versus coverage types, Baltimore is also a

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Speaker 3: very high or very heavy on too high usage versus

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Speaker 3: too high Kadarius Tony second on the team all year

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Speaker 3: and with a twenty five percent target per route run rate.

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Speaker 3: So if it's not me Cole, Kadarius Tony could be

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Speaker 3: the guy that scores this week. Hell, maybe gets double

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Speaker 3: tuddy and everybody's like, oh my lord, I.

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Speaker 1: Didn't see that coming.

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Speaker 3: But keep him in the back pocket if you're not

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Speaker 3: searching for value with Noah Gray. I think Kadarius Tony

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Speaker 3: is a fantastic play.

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Speaker 2: All right, Let's move on to the late game here,

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Speaker 2: the San Francisco forty nine ers hosting the Detroit Lions.

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Speaker 2: Fifty one and a half. It's a big number here.

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Speaker 2: I almost kind of worry about this one a little

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Speaker 2: bit being too big. I like the over in the

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Speaker 2: first game, and I kind of like the under in

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Speaker 2: the second one. Maybe I'm crazy here, but you know,

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Speaker 2: I understand why it's high because you have names like

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Speaker 2: I'm Mon Rossaint Brown, and you have George Kittle and

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Speaker 2: obviously CMC. So I think just the star power of

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Speaker 2: this game pushes this number. But let's talk about it

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Speaker 2: from a DFS perspective, because look, CMC is super expensive,

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Speaker 2: party's coming off a tough game. I think Kittle makes

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Speaker 2: a lot of sense here, especially if Deebo is officially out.

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Speaker 2: We'll find out more about that tomorrow. I think that's

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Speaker 2: probably what we're looking at. You obviously becomes a little

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Speaker 2: bit more intriguing, and then on the flip side, like, look,

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Speaker 2: you know what it is, it's you know, it's Jared

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Speaker 2: goff to I'm mon Rossaint Brown. That's the bread and

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Speaker 2: butter of the Lions. And then you can sprinkle some

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Speaker 2: other things in there too. But what are the pieces

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Speaker 2: that you think really stand out to you in this game?

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Speaker 3: Jared Goff and Brock Party are both him play and

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Speaker 3: Brock Party is going to be Chalky. He was Chalky

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Speaker 3: last week and people say, oh, well he played really

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Speaker 3: bad or people are really going to go back there.

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Speaker 3: We've seen this all year in DFS. People go right

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Speaker 3: back to like certain options if they're good plays doesn't matter.

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Speaker 3: You don't get that type of bias anymore. So Chalk

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Speaker 3: Party is going to be chalk again considering the matchup,

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Speaker 3: and he's good chalk Like, I.

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Speaker 1: Have no problem with that.

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Speaker 3: But Jared Goff, I do want to bring up a

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Speaker 3: really nice contrarion play because San Francisco, for as tough

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Speaker 3: as their pass defense has been, and yes they've been very,

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Speaker 3: very good, they have also allowed since week thirteen the

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Speaker 3: eighth most passing touchdowns. So we're talking about pass to

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Speaker 3: Jared Goff getting there. Okay, well, they allowed a lot

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Speaker 3: of touchdowns as well as you're looking at Jared Goff,

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Speaker 3: who ranks third in play action dropbacks.

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Speaker 1: I talked about this with.

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Speaker 3: Jordan Love, and this is how Jordan Love had some

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Speaker 3: success versus San Francisco. Since week thirteen, San Francisco has

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Speaker 3: allowed the fifth highest charts per attempt and third highest

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Speaker 3: passer rating to play extra passing. So Golf, while a

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Speaker 3: lot of people are gonna say I'm asking him out,

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Speaker 3: not in my player pool, golf is playing.

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Speaker 1: On another level.

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Speaker 3: We need to give that man some respect. So on

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Speaker 3: a two game slate, I'm sure as hell willing to.

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Speaker 1: Go that way.

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Speaker 3: So, Jared Goff, perty are both in play if you're

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Speaker 3: playing these guys or not. I love the Detroit Lions

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Speaker 3: backfield this week. Jamier Gibbs is unstoppable, like he has

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Speaker 3: been fantastic, and it doesn't matter if he doesn't have

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Speaker 3: a ton of volume. The guy is so freaking efficient,

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Speaker 3: He's so explosive, it does not matter. And I'm gonna

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Speaker 3: say this really quick show, but so if you're any

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Speaker 3: of San Francisco fans out there, you might want to

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Speaker 3: get ear muffs. Not listen to this part, But San

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Speaker 3: Francisco's forty nine ers run defense is over rated a

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Speaker 3: set it man since Week thirteen, seventh highest explosive run rate,

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Speaker 3: sixth highest miss tackles per attempt, ninth highest yards up

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Speaker 3: to contact per attempt. There is an avenue for Detroit

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Speaker 3: to win this game, and if they do it, they're

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Speaker 3: gonna run the ball and run the ball efficiently. So

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Speaker 3: Jamiir Gibbs is firmly in play. That's not gonna shock anybody.

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Speaker 3: His prop lines are getting steamed. People like him, they

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Speaker 3: want to play him. That's all good.

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Speaker 1: But this leads me to David Montgomery. Pairing him with

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Speaker 1: the Detroit Lions. DST is going to be under rostered.

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Speaker 1: And if Detroit wins this game one we've seen rock

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Speaker 1: Party fall apart. How many times have we seen that

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Speaker 1: this year? The right side of their line is not fantastic.

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Speaker 1: If you don't try to bull rush Trent Williams, well

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Speaker 1: just go to the other side.

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Speaker 3: Ad Hutchinson if he has himself a game, and with

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Speaker 3: Detroit if they are in positive game, script, David Montgomery

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Speaker 3: can make the optimal this week. Again, I talked about it.

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Speaker 3: They're a run defense is overrated. We have seen Detroit

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Speaker 3: lean on their running backs in the red zone time

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Speaker 3: and time again. So Davin Montgomery is one of my favorite,

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Speaker 3: if not my favorite contrieron play of this entire slate,

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Speaker 3: CMC is always in play. I don't really have to

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Speaker 3: tell anybody that because that's just a fact. But on

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Speaker 3: this two game slate I will have exposure to him,

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Speaker 3: but I'm more likely fading him. It's not just the

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Speaker 3: price point, it's from the fact of Detroit. We know

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Speaker 3: what their bread and butter is that's stopping the run.

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Speaker 3: Can CMC still get there in the past game utility?

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Speaker 1: Yes? But could he not? Could he score fifteen? Could

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Speaker 1: he score twenty?

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Speaker 3: And if any one of these guys based off of

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Speaker 3: point per dollar outscore him at a lesser price point,

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Speaker 3: he might not make the optimal, even though he crushed

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Speaker 3: last week.

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Speaker 1: But moving over to the pass game options in this game.

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Speaker 3: You talked about it, Joe, I mean, look, Amanoss Saint

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Speaker 3: Brown is firmly in play. Golf's gonna pepper him, especially

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Speaker 3: looking at facing too high coverage Detroit has leaned on

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Speaker 3: Omanross Saint Brown for a twenty eight percent target chair

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Speaker 3: and he's really been.

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Speaker 1: Their only guy.

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Speaker 3: Like the guy, so Amanos is in play, Josh Reynolds

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Speaker 3: is in play. I mean he's been the number two

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Speaker 3: in that offense outside of Sam Laporta. But from the

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Speaker 3: wide receiver perspective eighty three percent route run rate, I'm

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Speaker 3: not on Jamison Williams just because he's not getting as

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Speaker 3: many routes per game, not getting that much usage. Target

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Speaker 3: chair hasn't been there as well as this season. Going

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Speaker 3: back to the play action aspect, Joe Josh Reynolds is

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Speaker 3: second on the team and with first red cheer and

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Speaker 3: has a strong not one point nine yards per route

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Speaker 3: runald play action dropbacks and staying on the wide receivers.

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Speaker 3: Here man my favorite play and I'm probably gonna lock

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Speaker 3: button him. That's where I'm at. Brandon Ayuk, I don't

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Speaker 3: care of Divo plays. I don't care if Debo is out.

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Speaker 3: I'm playing all the brand in Ayuk. I will lot

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Speaker 3: but play.

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Speaker 2: Practiced all week, So why wouldn't you go to Ayuk

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Speaker 2: in this situation? And plus the other thing too is

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Speaker 2: when Debo is out you see Kittle always tick up two.

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Speaker 1: That's the other one I always keep coming back to.

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Speaker 2: We just talked on the podcast with Welsh and Erickson

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Speaker 2: about the Kittle potential in this game, and I think

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Speaker 2: that's really.

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Speaker 1: Hard to ignore.

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Speaker 2: He's agreed, you know, one of a core plays for me.

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Speaker 2: But I'm with you on Ayuk and I'm with you

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Speaker 2: on Kittle here. I certainly think that. So anything else

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Speaker 2: here before we close up shop when it comes to

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Speaker 2: this game, yeah.

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Speaker 3: I mean, I think the firm two spots for San

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Speaker 3: Francisco to attack Detroit because they run a lot of

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Speaker 3: single high all year. We've talked about this Joe versus

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Speaker 3: single high. It's all Ayuk, it's all Kittle. And going

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Speaker 3: back to Sam Laporte here, I think that he's the

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Speaker 3: only other guy out of this game that I want

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Speaker 3: to play. He hasn't been especially efficient versus two high,

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Speaker 3: which San Francisco's run at fifty two percent of their

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Speaker 3: snap since Week fifteen, but he's the next guy.

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Speaker 1: Up behind aman Ros.

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Speaker 3: So if you're not playing Amanah, then I think you

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Speaker 3: need to consider one of the Detroit running backs and

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Speaker 3: Sam Laporte in your lineups.

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Speaker 1: All right, there, You go.

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Speaker 3: So the Super Bowl is who Derek Brown Baltimore ravens

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Speaker 3: the Detroit Lions calling it now, oh a.

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Speaker 2: Little of it, call him a little colm, be there,

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Speaker 2: a little favorite, a little upset.

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Speaker 1: I like that. I like where you're going. I'm gonna go.

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna go Lions, Casey, I'm gonna go full circle

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Speaker 2: start of the season.

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Speaker 1: Baby, I thought you were going. Case after last week.

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Speaker 2: I got a little look they I had the big

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Speaker 2: ticket for the San Francisco forty nine ers, and I

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Speaker 2: decided to take sixty five percent of the money who

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Speaker 2: because it, you know, and just run because I did

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Speaker 2: not like what I saw at a party. And I

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Speaker 2: don't know if they can beat the Lions and beat

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Speaker 2: one of those AFC teams.

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Speaker 1: I'm I am skeptical.

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Speaker 2: And Kyle Shanahan in a big spot, well, he tends

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Speaker 2: to let people down. And until that changes, I am

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Speaker 2: going to stick with the field. So I took my

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Speaker 2: money off that and now I've reinvested it.

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Speaker 1: In the field. That's what I've done.

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Speaker 2: So hopefully everybody enjoys the games on Go play a

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Speaker 2: little DFS and also go download the betting pros app

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00:15:03,480 --> 00:15:06,160
Speaker 2: right now, start betting smarter or not harder.

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Speaker 1: Why would you want to bet harder? That makes no sense,

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00:15:08,360 --> 00:15:09,400
Speaker 1: So go ahead and do that.

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Speaker 2: And again, if you have iOS, you get three free

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Speaker 2: days of Betting Pros Premium, So use the upgraded tools

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00:15:14,600 --> 00:15:16,320
Speaker 2: to make the best decisions. And of course don't forget

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Speaker 2: about the Prop Bitch sheet sheet that's available as well.

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00:15:18,960 --> 00:15:21,280
Speaker 2: Give you all the fantasy projections next to the props,

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Speaker 2: next to the best place to bet them.

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Speaker 1: What's better than that? I don't know.

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Speaker 2: So on that note, we're gonna have to head out.

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Speaker 2: That'll do it for us, But the story of the

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Speaker 2: game goes on. For Derek Brown, I'm Joey P. We'll

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Speaker 2: see you next time.

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Speaker 4: Kids. Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If

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Speaker 4: you love the show, the best freeway to support us

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Speaker 4: is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

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Speaker 4: channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros