1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:02,360 Speaker 1: Of all the things that we don't know, the one 2 00:00:02,360 --> 00:00:04,200 Speaker 1: thing that I think we can say with a degree 3 00:00:04,240 --> 00:00:08,520 Speaker 1: of certainty is that the air of invincibility around Putin 4 00:00:08,600 --> 00:00:09,799 Speaker 1: has come crashing down. 5 00:00:11,520 --> 00:00:14,040 Speaker 2: I'm west Kasova. Today on the Big Take, I talked 6 00:00:14,080 --> 00:00:18,760 Speaker 2: to Bloomberg's Flavia kraus Jackson about the insurrection in Russia. 7 00:00:18,840 --> 00:00:21,720 Speaker 2: What does it mean for Vladimir Putin's hold on power 8 00:00:22,239 --> 00:00:36,839 Speaker 2: and the war in Ukraine. Flavia, I think we all 9 00:00:36,880 --> 00:00:41,280 Speaker 2: watch these extraordinary events unfolding Russia over the weekend. We 10 00:00:41,360 --> 00:00:45,519 Speaker 2: have an armed insurrection that came within two hundred miles 11 00:00:45,520 --> 00:00:50,240 Speaker 2: of Moscow, and now a lot of questions about whether 12 00:00:50,479 --> 00:00:54,040 Speaker 2: Vladimir Putin is weakened and if so, how far he 13 00:00:54,120 --> 00:00:57,040 Speaker 2: might go to restore his grip on power. You've been 14 00:00:57,200 --> 00:01:01,480 Speaker 2: covering this story around the class this weekend. How did 15 00:01:01,520 --> 00:01:02,080 Speaker 2: this happen? 16 00:01:03,240 --> 00:01:07,479 Speaker 1: I mean, Vladimir Putin essentially managed to avert an attack 17 00:01:07,520 --> 00:01:10,800 Speaker 1: on Moscow at the very last hour, an attack that 18 00:01:10,920 --> 00:01:13,600 Speaker 1: saw what was once of his closest allies, the head 19 00:01:13,640 --> 00:01:17,679 Speaker 1: of the Mercenary Wagner group, Yevgeni Progozin, and who in 20 00:01:17,720 --> 00:01:20,680 Speaker 1: an extraordinary move, was leading a group of his own 21 00:01:20,720 --> 00:01:24,360 Speaker 1: fighters directly to the capitol. There had been some loose 22 00:01:24,440 --> 00:01:27,360 Speaker 1: talk calling it an alleged coup, but I think here 23 00:01:27,480 --> 00:01:30,720 Speaker 1: precision is actually very important. It was definitely an insurrection, 24 00:01:31,200 --> 00:01:34,560 Speaker 1: a mutinous act, but a coup has a very very 25 00:01:34,600 --> 00:01:38,800 Speaker 1: specific meaning in Russia, of all places. It implies an 26 00:01:38,840 --> 00:01:43,280 Speaker 1: overthrow of actually the president. And as much as Progosen 27 00:01:43,400 --> 00:01:46,240 Speaker 1: was kicking off, he was very much saying, hey, I'm 28 00:01:46,319 --> 00:01:50,000 Speaker 1: marching to Moscow, this march of justice. But it was 29 00:01:50,120 --> 00:01:53,600 Speaker 1: never phrase or couched as I'm going to get rid 30 00:01:53,640 --> 00:01:56,360 Speaker 1: of Putin. It was very much I need to take 31 00:01:56,360 --> 00:01:58,400 Speaker 1: the law in my own hands and deal with the 32 00:01:58,400 --> 00:02:02,160 Speaker 1: Ministry of Defense my elf, because they are not doing 33 00:02:02,200 --> 00:02:04,920 Speaker 1: the job they should be doing on the ground. As 34 00:02:04,960 --> 00:02:09,120 Speaker 1: the crisis became closer and closer to Putin himself inside 35 00:02:09,160 --> 00:02:13,680 Speaker 1: the Kremlin, there was great disbelief at just how Progosen 36 00:02:13,760 --> 00:02:16,320 Speaker 1: and his men were able to get so close to 37 00:02:16,360 --> 00:02:19,079 Speaker 1: the point that the authorities had to essentially put the 38 00:02:19,240 --> 00:02:23,080 Speaker 1: entire city into lockdown, putting out the Moscow Mayer out there. 39 00:02:23,280 --> 00:02:26,600 Speaker 1: Barricades came up and troops were brought in, and that 40 00:02:26,760 --> 00:02:29,560 Speaker 1: left Putin essentially having to work the phones and try 41 00:02:29,600 --> 00:02:32,560 Speaker 1: and work out who whether he still had support amongst 42 00:02:32,560 --> 00:02:36,120 Speaker 1: his allies. What we know from our reporting is that 43 00:02:36,160 --> 00:02:40,840 Speaker 1: insiders in Moscow close to Putin were just absolutely stunned 44 00:02:40,840 --> 00:02:43,600 Speaker 1: that he had let this go so far. Is he 45 00:02:43,720 --> 00:02:46,040 Speaker 1: really as strong as if always believed him to be, 46 00:02:46,520 --> 00:02:49,880 Speaker 1: and suddenly the air of invincibility around him has come 47 00:02:49,919 --> 00:02:53,359 Speaker 1: crumbling down. Putin came out and said all was forgiven, 48 00:02:53,480 --> 00:02:57,000 Speaker 1: he was going to drop all charges and Progosen was 49 00:02:57,040 --> 00:03:00,680 Speaker 1: going to be going next door to Belarus, and the 50 00:03:00,720 --> 00:03:04,640 Speaker 1: President of Belarus, Alexander Lukoshenko, who's a very close ally 51 00:03:04,880 --> 00:03:08,760 Speaker 1: to Putin, also released a statement saying that he'd acted 52 00:03:08,800 --> 00:03:12,760 Speaker 1: as an intermediary. Now, this of course raises all sorts 53 00:03:12,760 --> 00:03:17,799 Speaker 1: of questions, how willingly did Progosen go? Will he actually go, 54 00:03:17,840 --> 00:03:22,280 Speaker 1: because in fact, he's gone completely quiet since making this announcement. 55 00:03:22,360 --> 00:03:23,840 Speaker 2: We don't know where he is right now. 56 00:03:24,040 --> 00:03:26,320 Speaker 1: We don't And the other things that we don't know 57 00:03:26,440 --> 00:03:31,120 Speaker 1: is what becomes of Wagner and his army of mercenaries. 58 00:03:31,440 --> 00:03:35,800 Speaker 2: Putin has said none of Progosian's troops would be punished. 59 00:03:35,400 --> 00:03:41,240 Speaker 1: Too exactly, and that in itself is almost unprecedented. Vladimir 60 00:03:41,280 --> 00:03:44,040 Speaker 1: Putin is not a man who forgives or forgets. He's 61 00:03:44,080 --> 00:03:48,680 Speaker 1: got a long track record of punishing people who turn 62 00:03:48,760 --> 00:03:52,360 Speaker 1: on him, and no one has defied him so openly 63 00:03:52,440 --> 00:03:55,920 Speaker 1: and so aggressively as Progosen. In the lead up to 64 00:03:55,960 --> 00:03:59,360 Speaker 1: all this, Progozen had kept getting more and more angry, 65 00:03:59,480 --> 00:04:02,360 Speaker 1: more and more vocal in his criticism. 66 00:04:01,960 --> 00:04:04,720 Speaker 2: And Progussion has been making a lot of videos on Telegram, 67 00:04:04,760 --> 00:04:09,480 Speaker 2: this social media platform where he's denouncing Russian generals, he's 68 00:04:09,520 --> 00:04:13,400 Speaker 2: denouncing the Defense minister, saying that they are losing the war, 69 00:04:13,760 --> 00:04:17,320 Speaker 2: accusing them of not getting his own mercenary troops enough 70 00:04:17,400 --> 00:04:21,400 Speaker 2: support in their effort to help the Russians in Ukraine. 71 00:04:21,839 --> 00:04:26,719 Speaker 2: And he has been increasingly vocal but never directly criticizing. 72 00:04:26,040 --> 00:04:30,040 Speaker 1: Putin absolutely, And I think that's a very important point 73 00:04:30,200 --> 00:04:33,880 Speaker 1: to unpick one of the threads and some of the 74 00:04:33,880 --> 00:04:37,360 Speaker 1: speculation that we've been following is was put In allowing 75 00:04:37,400 --> 00:04:40,320 Speaker 1: this to happen because the war wasn't going well and 76 00:04:40,360 --> 00:04:43,320 Speaker 1: he was looking for someone to scapegoat. So in a way, 77 00:04:43,520 --> 00:04:47,880 Speaker 1: having the military establishment at each other's throats and using 78 00:04:47,960 --> 00:04:51,000 Speaker 1: Progozen as a way to sort of play it out 79 00:04:51,520 --> 00:04:55,200 Speaker 1: gave him some kind of cover for just how badly 80 00:04:55,240 --> 00:04:57,920 Speaker 1: the war was going. But I think what the events 81 00:04:57,920 --> 00:05:02,440 Speaker 1: on the ground show is just how little control he 82 00:05:02,560 --> 00:05:06,680 Speaker 1: had over him. This discreature, this Frankenstein's monster, is what 83 00:05:07,240 --> 00:05:10,559 Speaker 1: diplomat have been calling, and the cables that we've seen 84 00:05:10,640 --> 00:05:13,120 Speaker 1: as the Western officials try to make sense of what's 85 00:05:13,160 --> 00:05:16,839 Speaker 1: going on, really describe a scenario of like, hold on 86 00:05:16,880 --> 00:05:20,200 Speaker 1: a second, did Putin actually think he had more control 87 00:05:20,320 --> 00:05:23,760 Speaker 1: over this guy than he actually did? So there was 88 00:05:23,839 --> 00:05:26,919 Speaker 1: a dawning realization of how did this actually get so 89 00:05:27,120 --> 00:05:30,000 Speaker 1: out of hand that he was marching towards the capital 90 00:05:30,080 --> 00:05:34,120 Speaker 1: bringing convoys of heavily armed fighters to the capitol. Now, 91 00:05:34,240 --> 00:05:36,560 Speaker 1: part of what we've unveiled in our reporting is that 92 00:05:36,640 --> 00:05:40,920 Speaker 1: Progosen was absolutely furious. He was vocal about this, and 93 00:05:41,000 --> 00:05:44,840 Speaker 1: his ire was particularly directed to the Russian Defense Minister, 94 00:05:44,920 --> 00:05:48,120 Speaker 1: a very public figure who he is held responsible for 95 00:05:48,279 --> 00:05:51,080 Speaker 1: all the failings of the war in Ukraine, as you recall, 96 00:05:51,160 --> 00:05:54,440 Speaker 1: began February twenty four, twenty twenty two, and that Putin 97 00:05:54,480 --> 00:05:57,480 Speaker 1: at the time had expected to literally be able to 98 00:05:57,520 --> 00:06:01,280 Speaker 1: waltz into Kiev and conquer the country overnight, and instead 99 00:06:01,640 --> 00:06:04,720 Speaker 1: all the deficiencies of that war have come in the 100 00:06:04,880 --> 00:06:06,080 Speaker 1: stark relief. 101 00:06:06,839 --> 00:06:10,520 Speaker 2: And Progosians own men, these mercenary fighters who worked for 102 00:06:10,600 --> 00:06:15,520 Speaker 2: him in the Wagner group were fighting alongside Russian military 103 00:06:15,800 --> 00:06:18,520 Speaker 2: in Ukraine, and he felt like they were not getting 104 00:06:18,560 --> 00:06:22,360 Speaker 2: the support that they needed from the Russian general exactly. 105 00:06:22,480 --> 00:06:26,679 Speaker 1: I mean, Progosen commands a vast army of guns for hire, 106 00:06:26,720 --> 00:06:29,560 Speaker 1: and he has enormous power over them, and he has 107 00:06:29,560 --> 00:06:32,280 Speaker 1: felt very passionately about this war and is a line 108 00:06:32,360 --> 00:06:36,680 Speaker 1: himself next to the hardliners that think and believe that 109 00:06:36,680 --> 00:06:40,320 Speaker 1: Putin should go in much harder mass conscriptions and play 110 00:06:40,400 --> 00:06:44,320 Speaker 1: much more of a hard ball game. Now, this really 111 00:06:44,360 --> 00:06:50,120 Speaker 1: reveals the internal tensions within the military establishment in Russia itself, 112 00:06:50,560 --> 00:06:52,800 Speaker 1: and where is Putin headed? Is he going to be 113 00:06:52,880 --> 00:06:55,279 Speaker 1: listening to the hardliners or is he going to be 114 00:06:55,320 --> 00:06:57,960 Speaker 1: listening more to the Russia elites who are much more 115 00:06:58,279 --> 00:07:01,920 Speaker 1: concerned about a the course of the war, how badly 116 00:07:01,960 --> 00:07:05,880 Speaker 1: it's going, and want Putent to negotiate a peace. And 117 00:07:05,960 --> 00:07:09,920 Speaker 1: so the question here then becomes is Putin being forced 118 00:07:09,960 --> 00:07:13,440 Speaker 1: potentially to take a much even harder liigned position than 119 00:07:13,480 --> 00:07:14,960 Speaker 1: perhaps he had done so far? 120 00:07:15,520 --> 00:07:18,640 Speaker 2: And Flabio when Progosion and his men were moving toward Moscow. 121 00:07:18,800 --> 00:07:22,040 Speaker 2: Putin went on television and gave this very stark warning, saying, 122 00:07:22,640 --> 00:07:25,760 Speaker 2: anyone who's involved in this is going to be harshly punished. 123 00:07:26,040 --> 00:07:28,480 Speaker 2: And in the end, of course, there was no punishment. 124 00:07:29,120 --> 00:07:31,880 Speaker 2: Progosion was allowed to go to Belarus under the steel 125 00:07:31,960 --> 00:07:34,280 Speaker 2: and the charges against his men were dropped. 126 00:07:35,000 --> 00:07:38,360 Speaker 1: Correct. It's very hard to square the peg on this one. 127 00:07:38,440 --> 00:07:41,360 Speaker 1: How does one go, in the space of very few hours, 128 00:07:41,760 --> 00:07:46,480 Speaker 1: threatening the man who's essentially armed and insurrection against you, 129 00:07:46,600 --> 00:07:49,920 Speaker 1: going on state television telling millions of Russians, we will 130 00:07:49,960 --> 00:07:53,520 Speaker 1: hold him to account. This is treason, this is unacceptable, 131 00:07:53,880 --> 00:07:56,640 Speaker 1: and just as quickly or for all of that to 132 00:07:56,680 --> 00:07:59,560 Speaker 1: go away. The fact that this does not fit into 133 00:07:59,560 --> 00:08:02,520 Speaker 1: the narrative of how Putin really deals with his enemies 134 00:08:02,920 --> 00:08:06,560 Speaker 1: immediately raises the issue of well, is he actually as 135 00:08:06,600 --> 00:08:09,440 Speaker 1: strong as we believe him to be, or maybe as 136 00:08:09,480 --> 00:08:12,480 Speaker 1: he thinks he is, And indeed, what were the things 137 00:08:12,520 --> 00:08:15,120 Speaker 1: in this deal that we still do not know? One 138 00:08:15,160 --> 00:08:18,680 Speaker 1: of the main issues is to what extent did Putin 139 00:08:18,760 --> 00:08:19,600 Speaker 1: have to capitulate. 140 00:08:20,200 --> 00:08:24,200 Speaker 2: And we started to see Western authorities, including the US 141 00:08:24,280 --> 00:08:27,840 Speaker 2: Secretary of State Antony Blincoln, saying that this was a 142 00:08:27,960 --> 00:08:30,240 Speaker 2: direct challenge to Putin's. 143 00:08:29,760 --> 00:08:34,239 Speaker 1: Power, absolutely, and our own sourcing within the US intelligence 144 00:08:34,280 --> 00:08:37,440 Speaker 1: community sort of points out that the US did sort 145 00:08:37,480 --> 00:08:39,400 Speaker 1: of know that this was brewing and had kept it 146 00:08:39,440 --> 00:08:42,600 Speaker 1: to itself, and of course viewing it to a degree 147 00:08:42,720 --> 00:08:47,840 Speaker 1: with interest naturally, but also suspicion, because if you remove Putin, 148 00:08:48,400 --> 00:08:50,920 Speaker 1: you don't necessarily know what that will lead to. 149 00:08:51,679 --> 00:08:56,040 Speaker 2: After the break. Why the Putin Pregosion relationship was so 150 00:08:56,120 --> 00:09:18,000 Speaker 2: important for both men, Flabia, maybe we should take a 151 00:09:18,080 --> 00:09:22,680 Speaker 2: minute and talk about this relationship between Pregosion and Putin, 152 00:09:22,720 --> 00:09:26,479 Speaker 2: because I don't think you can overstate just how important 153 00:09:27,240 --> 00:09:30,720 Speaker 2: Putin is to Progosion and Progosion is to Putin. 154 00:09:31,880 --> 00:09:34,480 Speaker 1: You're absolutely right, Wes, and I think we've got to 155 00:09:34,559 --> 00:09:37,199 Speaker 1: like really take their relationship and go back a little 156 00:09:37,200 --> 00:09:40,800 Speaker 1: bit in history. Significantly, they're both from Saint Petersburg with 157 00:09:40,920 --> 00:09:46,880 Speaker 1: different backgrounds obviously, but both tough guys. Progoesen an ex convict, 158 00:09:47,240 --> 00:09:50,080 Speaker 1: small time crook who was put in prison for stealing. 159 00:09:50,440 --> 00:09:55,440 Speaker 1: Once he emerged from prison, began a restaurant business, started 160 00:09:55,440 --> 00:09:59,600 Speaker 1: selling hot dogs on the streets. There is speculation about 161 00:09:59,679 --> 00:10:03,280 Speaker 1: when Putin and Progosen, when they may have met. We 162 00:10:03,360 --> 00:10:06,160 Speaker 1: believe possibly in the early nineties. But what we do 163 00:10:06,320 --> 00:10:09,760 Speaker 1: know is that once Progosen got into the restaurant business, 164 00:10:09,800 --> 00:10:14,000 Speaker 1: after selling hot dogs in the streets, this restaurant became 165 00:10:14,200 --> 00:10:17,720 Speaker 1: a very popular place that Putin himself enjoyed going to, 166 00:10:17,920 --> 00:10:22,040 Speaker 1: and also French President Hirak and I believe he might 167 00:10:22,120 --> 00:10:25,360 Speaker 1: have even hosted President George W. Bush. So that is 168 00:10:25,400 --> 00:10:28,760 Speaker 1: the degree of fame that he reached, to the point 169 00:10:28,760 --> 00:10:32,120 Speaker 1: that he became popularly known as Putin's chef. That is 170 00:10:32,160 --> 00:10:36,280 Speaker 1: not a derogative term, of course. It gave Progoes an 171 00:10:36,280 --> 00:10:40,319 Speaker 1: incredible access to the Kremlin. In fact, he was frequently 172 00:10:40,360 --> 00:10:44,520 Speaker 1: seen side by side next to Putin, serving him soup 173 00:10:44,600 --> 00:10:48,040 Speaker 1: and serving the entire elite and the inner circle, the 174 00:10:48,080 --> 00:10:51,200 Speaker 1: inner sanctum of Putin. And so that is where his 175 00:10:51,360 --> 00:10:56,080 Speaker 1: journey from small time crook to Putin's right hand man begins. 176 00:10:56,120 --> 00:10:59,120 Speaker 1: Having made his name in the restaurant business and getting 177 00:10:59,120 --> 00:11:01,560 Speaker 1: that kind of access to Putin, he was able to 178 00:11:01,640 --> 00:11:06,680 Speaker 1: leverage his restaurant into lucrative government contracts that Putin handed 179 00:11:06,760 --> 00:11:09,880 Speaker 1: over to him to feed the army, to feed businesses, 180 00:11:10,240 --> 00:11:13,079 Speaker 1: and that turned him overnight into a millionaire. And then 181 00:11:13,120 --> 00:11:17,319 Speaker 1: we get perhaps the most significant second chapter of Progosen's 182 00:11:17,720 --> 00:11:20,520 Speaker 1: rise to power, and that is the formation of the 183 00:11:20,600 --> 00:11:24,520 Speaker 1: Wagner Group, which he founded in twenty fourteen and which 184 00:11:24,520 --> 00:11:28,280 Speaker 1: at its peak had about fifty thousand mercenary recruits. Now 185 00:11:28,280 --> 00:11:32,000 Speaker 1: what's very interesting about this is that until twenty twenty two, 186 00:11:32,320 --> 00:11:35,559 Speaker 1: Progosen denied even having anything to do with this group. 187 00:11:35,720 --> 00:11:38,280 Speaker 2: And what exactly is the Wagner Group. 188 00:11:39,000 --> 00:11:41,920 Speaker 1: Their guns for hire put very very simply, and they 189 00:11:41,920 --> 00:11:47,199 Speaker 1: became incredibly important to Putin as Putin decided to establish 190 00:11:47,480 --> 00:11:51,440 Speaker 1: his tentacles of power outside of Russia, so specifically in 191 00:11:51,559 --> 00:11:54,720 Speaker 1: Syria when there are the Arab uprisings and there was 192 00:11:54,720 --> 00:11:59,080 Speaker 1: an attempt to overthrow President Assad, that is when Putin 193 00:11:59,120 --> 00:12:03,480 Speaker 1: decided to get personally involved. Having seen what happened to 194 00:12:03,520 --> 00:12:08,160 Speaker 1: Colonel Gaddafi in Libya and having blamed the West for 195 00:12:08,280 --> 00:12:13,360 Speaker 1: that debacle, he became personally very preoccupied with the overreach 196 00:12:13,920 --> 00:12:17,640 Speaker 1: of the US and its European allies and decided that 197 00:12:17,679 --> 00:12:20,840 Speaker 1: he could no longer sit back and watch. And so 198 00:12:20,920 --> 00:12:23,680 Speaker 1: when it came to Syria where there was a civil 199 00:12:23,760 --> 00:12:28,080 Speaker 1: war to try and unseat the president, Putin decided to 200 00:12:28,320 --> 00:12:33,320 Speaker 1: personally get involved. And that is where Pragosen's Wagner Group began, 201 00:12:34,040 --> 00:12:36,840 Speaker 1: what became, and what he was able to leverage into 202 00:12:36,840 --> 00:12:41,240 Speaker 1: an entire mercenary empire across the Middle East and across 203 00:12:41,360 --> 00:12:45,000 Speaker 1: Africa in places like the Central African Republican and. 204 00:12:44,920 --> 00:12:49,040 Speaker 2: So the US and other allies have said that the 205 00:12:49,080 --> 00:12:53,920 Speaker 2: Wagner mercenaries operate with Putin's knowledge and allow him a 206 00:12:53,920 --> 00:12:58,960 Speaker 2: certain amount of deniability because they're not official Russian military exactly. 207 00:12:59,000 --> 00:13:01,920 Speaker 1: It's been a relationship that has been mutually convenient to 208 00:13:02,040 --> 00:13:06,760 Speaker 1: both because Progosen has been able to enrich himself even 209 00:13:06,880 --> 00:13:12,040 Speaker 1: further and Putin has plausible deniability. Now. Of course, this 210 00:13:12,800 --> 00:13:16,360 Speaker 1: highly influential group that has been playing such a key 211 00:13:16,480 --> 00:13:20,000 Speaker 1: role in Ukraine was earlier this year designated a terrorist 212 00:13:20,000 --> 00:13:23,679 Speaker 1: group by the US a recognition of its sheer influence 213 00:13:23,800 --> 00:13:24,360 Speaker 1: and power. 214 00:13:24,679 --> 00:13:29,600 Speaker 2: And the US also has another complaint against Pregosion, of. 215 00:13:29,600 --> 00:13:32,800 Speaker 1: Course, and this takes us back to twenty sixteen. Back 216 00:13:32,840 --> 00:13:36,760 Speaker 1: in twenty sixteen, Progozen was running a troll farm that 217 00:13:36,840 --> 00:13:40,760 Speaker 1: the US has said interfered and meddled with the twenty 218 00:13:40,840 --> 00:13:42,360 Speaker 1: sixteen presidential election. 219 00:13:43,040 --> 00:13:48,640 Speaker 2: Bloomberg also reports that there is some concern among Western 220 00:13:48,679 --> 00:13:53,920 Speaker 2: partners of Ukraine, that this could strengthen the hand of 221 00:13:53,960 --> 00:13:57,280 Speaker 2: the hardliners who are really pushing for Russia to go 222 00:13:57,360 --> 00:13:58,480 Speaker 2: even further in the war. 223 00:13:58,960 --> 00:14:01,040 Speaker 1: Yes, absolutely, and here we're going to have to be 224 00:14:01,200 --> 00:14:04,160 Speaker 1: very mindful of any kind of divisions that we may 225 00:14:04,200 --> 00:14:07,439 Speaker 1: see in the Western Alliance. The US, of course, seemed 226 00:14:07,440 --> 00:14:09,080 Speaker 1: to have had a tip off and knew what was 227 00:14:09,120 --> 00:14:11,760 Speaker 1: going on, but other allies like Germany and Italy were 228 00:14:11,760 --> 00:14:15,080 Speaker 1: caught completely by surprise. And one of the questions, however, 229 00:14:15,120 --> 00:14:17,120 Speaker 1: that they as a collective as they try and work 230 00:14:17,200 --> 00:14:21,320 Speaker 1: out how far to shore up Ukraine, is what are 231 00:14:21,360 --> 00:14:26,000 Speaker 1: we going against here? An increasingly erratic Putin, who with 232 00:14:26,080 --> 00:14:28,960 Speaker 1: his back to the wall, decides to double down even 233 00:14:29,000 --> 00:14:32,040 Speaker 1: further in Ukraine, taking the kind of radical steps that 234 00:14:32,080 --> 00:14:36,520 Speaker 1: are terrifying, be it nuclear threats, be it blowing up 235 00:14:36,560 --> 00:14:40,240 Speaker 1: a nuclear plant, be it forcing lots of Russian men 236 00:14:40,600 --> 00:14:44,320 Speaker 1: into mass conscriptions, and that raises the stakes in a 237 00:14:44,360 --> 00:14:48,160 Speaker 1: war that has already tested that unity in the Western world. 238 00:14:48,560 --> 00:14:51,520 Speaker 1: What has also been very clear in the past couple 239 00:14:51,520 --> 00:14:54,040 Speaker 1: of months, as the war in Ukraine has gone very 240 00:14:54,040 --> 00:14:57,840 Speaker 1: wrong for Russia, certainly not the way Putin could have 241 00:14:57,840 --> 00:15:01,680 Speaker 1: expected and anticipated when he thought he would conquer Kiev 242 00:15:02,040 --> 00:15:05,480 Speaker 1: within a few days and here we are sixteen months later. 243 00:15:06,080 --> 00:15:09,600 Speaker 1: Is that there are very real tensions within Russian society 244 00:15:09,680 --> 00:15:12,680 Speaker 1: and within the elite, which we have written about before. 245 00:15:13,200 --> 00:15:16,560 Speaker 1: There is some who think, listen, this is not going 246 00:15:16,680 --> 00:15:19,560 Speaker 1: very well. Let's cut our losses and let's try and 247 00:15:19,640 --> 00:15:23,040 Speaker 1: find a face saving way to end this war. And 248 00:15:23,080 --> 00:15:26,080 Speaker 1: then you have your hardliners and your hawks that are 249 00:15:26,120 --> 00:15:29,520 Speaker 1: saying hold on, no, Russia does not turn back, we 250 00:15:29,640 --> 00:15:32,920 Speaker 1: do not capitulate. So there is a real tension within 251 00:15:32,960 --> 00:15:36,280 Speaker 1: the establishment, with Putin right at the top trying to 252 00:15:36,360 --> 00:15:39,920 Speaker 1: decide which way to go, and the thinking is that 253 00:15:40,000 --> 00:15:44,320 Speaker 1: progoes and having been amongst the most critical people involved 254 00:15:44,360 --> 00:15:47,160 Speaker 1: in the war and saying we really need up the stakes, 255 00:15:47,400 --> 00:15:51,880 Speaker 1: that he wouldn't have necessarily made this affront without a 256 00:15:51,960 --> 00:15:55,400 Speaker 1: little bit of guidance or at least a nod from 257 00:15:55,440 --> 00:15:58,920 Speaker 1: someone within the establishment. So this brings the big question 258 00:15:59,120 --> 00:16:02,360 Speaker 1: of what this poot do next, And here we need 259 00:16:02,400 --> 00:16:05,000 Speaker 1: to question some of the assumptions that we've made about 260 00:16:05,040 --> 00:16:07,120 Speaker 1: where the war in Ukraine is headed. 261 00:16:07,960 --> 00:16:11,440 Speaker 2: When we come back, what this turmoil could mean for 262 00:16:11,520 --> 00:16:43,320 Speaker 2: the war in Ukraine. One of the ways that Putin 263 00:16:43,440 --> 00:16:46,560 Speaker 2: has kept his grip on power is through fear. People 264 00:16:46,640 --> 00:16:49,400 Speaker 2: are afraid that if they cross him, terrible things will 265 00:16:49,400 --> 00:16:51,920 Speaker 2: happen to them, and there are many examples of that. 266 00:16:52,360 --> 00:16:55,160 Speaker 2: Is there a risk for Putin that people will no 267 00:16:55,240 --> 00:16:59,560 Speaker 2: longer fear him, that some weaknesses have been exposed? 268 00:17:00,160 --> 00:17:03,160 Speaker 1: There is no doubt that the weaknesses have been exposed, 269 00:17:03,360 --> 00:17:05,960 Speaker 1: and that is the kind of public narrative that someone 270 00:17:06,040 --> 00:17:09,919 Speaker 1: like Putin will react very poorly. Too. There is that 271 00:17:10,080 --> 00:17:13,520 Speaker 1: oft told story that Putin himself has encouraged that we 272 00:17:13,560 --> 00:17:16,399 Speaker 1: are not quite sure how apocryphill it is of the 273 00:17:16,440 --> 00:17:19,760 Speaker 1: cornered rat. What happens to the rat in the corner 274 00:17:19,800 --> 00:17:23,280 Speaker 1: of the room feeling under assault, It goes on the attack. 275 00:17:23,600 --> 00:17:25,719 Speaker 1: And that is something that I think is worth bearing 276 00:17:25,760 --> 00:17:29,160 Speaker 1: in mind in terms of trying to preempt or read 277 00:17:29,320 --> 00:17:32,880 Speaker 1: how Putin will react. And another important point is that 278 00:17:33,280 --> 00:17:36,879 Speaker 1: Putin's trajectory as a leader. One has to remember that 279 00:17:36,960 --> 00:17:39,760 Speaker 1: this was someone who came in and was part of 280 00:17:39,800 --> 00:17:44,119 Speaker 1: the Group of Eight community, and at some stage in 281 00:17:44,160 --> 00:17:48,119 Speaker 1: his long career was seen as someone that the international 282 00:17:48,119 --> 00:17:53,320 Speaker 1: community could work with. And he has obviously become increasingly 283 00:17:53,440 --> 00:17:59,800 Speaker 1: sort of radicalized, and the pandemic has perhaps accentuated all 284 00:18:00,040 --> 00:18:05,800 Speaker 1: those tendencies. Russia has become an incredibly closed society. Putin 285 00:18:05,960 --> 00:18:09,840 Speaker 1: increasingly much more of an isolated figure. It's really unclear 286 00:18:10,320 --> 00:18:14,320 Speaker 1: who he listens to and who has any degree of 287 00:18:14,359 --> 00:18:18,000 Speaker 1: influence over him, and indeed to what degree is he 288 00:18:18,040 --> 00:18:18,880 Speaker 1: still in control? 289 00:18:19,760 --> 00:18:24,640 Speaker 2: And what happens now to the Wagner group. If Pregosion 290 00:18:24,880 --> 00:18:29,600 Speaker 2: is in exile, there are troops in many other countries, 291 00:18:30,320 --> 00:18:32,320 Speaker 2: what happens to that organization? 292 00:18:32,880 --> 00:18:36,880 Speaker 1: I think that's the big, unknonswerable question, And because Pragozin 293 00:18:36,960 --> 00:18:40,560 Speaker 1: himself has gone completely quiet, it's one that I think 294 00:18:41,000 --> 00:18:44,320 Speaker 1: will become clearer in the coming days and weeks. Because 295 00:18:44,320 --> 00:18:48,200 Speaker 1: he has built a massive empire, especially in places like 296 00:18:48,240 --> 00:18:51,080 Speaker 1: the Central Africa Republic, then it becomes a big question 297 00:18:51,160 --> 00:18:54,919 Speaker 1: what happens to this vast mercenary empire that he's built. 298 00:18:55,640 --> 00:18:58,520 Speaker 1: Does it disappear with him or does it become absorbed 299 00:18:58,720 --> 00:19:03,800 Speaker 1: by someone else or indeed within the Russia military apparatus. 300 00:19:04,240 --> 00:19:07,560 Speaker 2: Ukraine is viewing this as a positive thing only because 301 00:19:07,600 --> 00:19:12,080 Speaker 2: I guess chaos means Putin and the establishment in Moscow 302 00:19:12,200 --> 00:19:14,760 Speaker 2: might not be as laser focused in Ukraine. But have 303 00:19:14,800 --> 00:19:20,240 Speaker 2: we actually seen this effect Russia's war fighting plans in Ukraine. 304 00:19:20,560 --> 00:19:23,480 Speaker 1: We haven't seen any evidence of that just yet. I mean, 305 00:19:23,960 --> 00:19:27,400 Speaker 1: the reason these developments are so fascinating is because they 306 00:19:27,440 --> 00:19:31,320 Speaker 1: are happening three weeks into the long, vaulted, long talked 307 00:19:31,359 --> 00:19:35,919 Speaker 1: about Ukraine counter offensive, and this is something that the 308 00:19:36,040 --> 00:19:40,399 Speaker 1: Ukrainians are looking at to try and definitively push back 309 00:19:40,680 --> 00:19:43,960 Speaker 1: Russian troops. And there's a very limited time period in 310 00:19:44,000 --> 00:19:46,840 Speaker 1: which that can happen because of the weather conditions and 311 00:19:47,000 --> 00:19:50,840 Speaker 1: the onset of winter, So it needs to happen within 312 00:19:51,040 --> 00:19:53,560 Speaker 1: a very set number of months, and by the end 313 00:19:53,560 --> 00:19:56,040 Speaker 1: of the summer, if we are still in what is 314 00:19:56,119 --> 00:19:58,840 Speaker 1: essentially a war of attrition, we are then looking at 315 00:19:58,880 --> 00:20:03,800 Speaker 1: a scenario prolonged warfare and to what extent and to 316 00:20:03,960 --> 00:20:08,440 Speaker 1: what lengths will Putin go to win this war? And indeed, 317 00:20:08,560 --> 00:20:11,840 Speaker 1: with the twenty twenty four presidential elections really not that 318 00:20:12,000 --> 00:20:15,760 Speaker 1: far off at this point and the campaigning already happening, 319 00:20:16,040 --> 00:20:20,000 Speaker 1: will Congress and indeed the White House look at events 320 00:20:20,000 --> 00:20:23,760 Speaker 1: in Moscow and wander is now the time to help 321 00:20:24,040 --> 00:20:28,359 Speaker 1: Ukraine even more? Because we have seen that Putin is vulnerable. 322 00:20:28,400 --> 00:20:33,200 Speaker 1: Should we give our Ukrainian friends more weapons? And if 323 00:20:33,240 --> 00:20:35,639 Speaker 1: that happens, how will Putin interpret that? 324 00:20:36,800 --> 00:20:38,760 Speaker 2: Flavia, thanks for coming on the show. 325 00:20:38,840 --> 00:20:41,119 Speaker 1: It was an absolute pleasure. Thanks for having me Wez. 326 00:20:42,200 --> 00:20:44,080 Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to us here at The Big Take. 327 00:20:44,240 --> 00:20:47,360 Speaker 2: It's a daily podcast from Bloomberg and iHeartRadio. For more 328 00:20:47,400 --> 00:20:51,480 Speaker 2: shows from iHeartRadio, visit the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or 329 00:20:51,520 --> 00:20:54,200 Speaker 2: wherever you listen, and we'd love to hear from you. 330 00:20:54,280 --> 00:20:57,720 Speaker 2: Email us questions our comments to Big Take at Bloomberg 331 00:20:57,760 --> 00:21:01,960 Speaker 2: dot net. The supervising producer the Big Take is Vicky Virgolina. 332 00:21:02,320 --> 00:21:05,600 Speaker 2: Our senior producer and the producer of this episode is 333 00:21:05,720 --> 00:21:09,720 Speaker 2: Catherine Fink. Our original music was composed by Leo Sidron. 334 00:21:10,040 --> 00:21:13,480 Speaker 2: I'm west Kesova. We'll be back tomorrow with another Big Take.