1 00:00:00,280 --> 00:00:07,200 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:09,119 --> 00:00:13,640 Speaker 2: Lately, President Donald Trump has been talking about in unconventional 3 00:00:13,800 --> 00:00:16,880 Speaker 2: economic policy idea, the tariffs. 4 00:00:16,480 --> 00:00:19,479 Speaker 3: Allow us to give a dividend if we want to 5 00:00:19,480 --> 00:00:20,000 Speaker 3: do that now. 6 00:00:20,480 --> 00:00:23,480 Speaker 2: On November ninth, the President posted about the idea on 7 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:27,600 Speaker 2: Truth Social A dividend of at least two thousand dollars 8 00:00:27,600 --> 00:00:30,880 Speaker 2: a person, not including high income people, will be paid 9 00:00:30,920 --> 00:00:34,120 Speaker 2: to everyone, he wrote. He brought it up again a 10 00:00:34,159 --> 00:00:35,680 Speaker 2: few days later, so we're. 11 00:00:35,520 --> 00:00:38,400 Speaker 3: Going to be doing a dividend which people will enjoy 12 00:00:38,520 --> 00:00:40,000 Speaker 3: and spend and do what they want. 13 00:00:40,920 --> 00:00:43,479 Speaker 4: Essentially, he's talked about taking some of the tariff revenue 14 00:00:43,560 --> 00:00:46,400 Speaker 4: that the US has collected and using that to issue 15 00:00:46,560 --> 00:00:49,680 Speaker 4: two thousand dollars payments directly to US citizens. 16 00:00:50,120 --> 00:00:53,440 Speaker 2: That's Dan Flatley, a US Treasury reporter for Bloomberg. 17 00:00:53,920 --> 00:00:56,120 Speaker 4: The idea would be to take some of that revenue 18 00:00:56,120 --> 00:00:59,640 Speaker 4: and redistribute it to families making under one hundred thousand 19 00:00:59,640 --> 00:01:02,600 Speaker 4: dollars right or individuals making under a hundred thousand dollars. 20 00:01:03,000 --> 00:01:06,240 Speaker 2: Since Trump began his trade war in April, the US 21 00:01:06,520 --> 00:01:10,240 Speaker 2: has made money from tariffs. The Treasury Department says the 22 00:01:10,360 --> 00:01:13,679 Speaker 2: US has collected one hundred and ninety five billion dollars 23 00:01:13,720 --> 00:01:16,880 Speaker 2: in customs duties in the twenty twenty five fiscal year. 24 00:01:17,880 --> 00:01:21,399 Speaker 2: But there's a small problem with the math. The Yell 25 00:01:21,480 --> 00:01:24,600 Speaker 2: Budget Lab estimated that it would actually cost four hundred 26 00:01:24,640 --> 00:01:27,280 Speaker 2: and fifty billion dollars to pay out dividends in the 27 00:01:27,280 --> 00:01:30,959 Speaker 2: way Trump is proposing. The Committee for a Responsible Federal 28 00:01:31,000 --> 00:01:35,800 Speaker 2: Budget estimated that these dividends could cost six hundred billion dollars. 29 00:01:36,680 --> 00:01:39,400 Speaker 5: And so this would be sort of a money loser, 30 00:01:39,600 --> 00:01:42,800 Speaker 5: regardless of whether the budget it's four fifty six hundred. 31 00:01:43,120 --> 00:01:46,080 Speaker 2: That's Nancy Cook, a White House reporter for Bloomberg. 32 00:01:46,480 --> 00:01:48,760 Speaker 5: It's going to cost more money than they're bringing in. 33 00:01:49,240 --> 00:01:52,640 Speaker 2: And that's just one of the unanswered questions about how 34 00:01:52,760 --> 00:01:57,880 Speaker 2: these two thousand dollars dividends would work. It's also not 35 00:01:58,040 --> 00:02:01,320 Speaker 2: clear how the administration would act actually go about paying 36 00:02:01,360 --> 00:02:05,000 Speaker 2: the money to Americans. In a recent interview with ABC News, 37 00:02:05,200 --> 00:02:09,360 Speaker 2: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessont was asked by George Stephanopoulos about 38 00:02:09,400 --> 00:02:11,079 Speaker 2: whether there's a plan for that. 39 00:02:11,400 --> 00:02:15,240 Speaker 1: I haven't spoken to the President about this yet, but 40 00:02:15,960 --> 00:02:18,760 Speaker 1: you know, it could. The two thousand dollars dividend could 41 00:02:18,760 --> 00:02:22,240 Speaker 1: come in lots of forms in lots of ways, George, 42 00:02:22,720 --> 00:02:26,120 Speaker 1: you know, it could be just the tax decreases that 43 00:02:26,160 --> 00:02:26,799 Speaker 1: we are seeing. 44 00:02:26,840 --> 00:02:31,160 Speaker 2: Trump meanwhile, insists the dividend would be paid out in checks. 45 00:02:31,680 --> 00:02:34,200 Speaker 3: That's not made up. That's real money that comes from 46 00:02:34,240 --> 00:02:34,960 Speaker 3: other countries. 47 00:02:35,280 --> 00:02:38,600 Speaker 2: But there's another big hurdle, the politics. 48 00:02:38,880 --> 00:02:41,720 Speaker 5: It's a tricky idea politically, forget like sort of the 49 00:02:41,919 --> 00:02:44,520 Speaker 5: economics of it. It's not something that Trump can just do. 50 00:02:44,560 --> 00:02:44,720 Speaker 4: You know. 51 00:02:44,800 --> 00:02:51,840 Speaker 2: Latterally, I'm Sarah Holder and this is the big take 52 00:02:51,880 --> 00:02:55,520 Speaker 2: from Bloomberg News today on the show, breaking down Trump's 53 00:02:55,560 --> 00:02:59,080 Speaker 2: proposal to dole out tariff revenue to Americans, how it 54 00:02:59,120 --> 00:03:02,320 Speaker 2: fits into the ability debate that will define the midterms, 55 00:03:02,760 --> 00:03:05,880 Speaker 2: and the many obstacles to making it a reality. 56 00:03:10,880 --> 00:03:13,560 Speaker 4: There's lots of economic implications for this. There's lots of 57 00:03:13,560 --> 00:03:15,600 Speaker 4: practical implications for this. There's lots of things that we 58 00:03:15,600 --> 00:03:16,520 Speaker 4: can sort of get into. 59 00:03:17,080 --> 00:03:20,400 Speaker 2: Dan Flatley is a treasury reporter for Bloomberg. He's been 60 00:03:20,480 --> 00:03:24,680 Speaker 2: chasing down the details of Trump's dividend check proposal, starting 61 00:03:24,840 --> 00:03:28,760 Speaker 2: with how the administration would pay for it. Trump's idea 62 00:03:28,919 --> 00:03:31,320 Speaker 2: is to use the money the US has collected in 63 00:03:31,400 --> 00:03:32,360 Speaker 2: tariff revenue. 64 00:03:32,440 --> 00:03:34,880 Speaker 4: There's no question that US has brought in a lot 65 00:03:34,920 --> 00:03:37,600 Speaker 4: of money in this fashion. The last we looked was 66 00:03:37,600 --> 00:03:40,480 Speaker 4: the end of the fiscal year, which ended September thirtieth. 67 00:03:40,560 --> 00:03:42,760 Speaker 4: It's the fiscal year for twenty twenty five, one hundred 68 00:03:42,760 --> 00:03:46,920 Speaker 4: and ninety five billion dollars worth of customs duties were collected. 69 00:03:47,360 --> 00:03:50,240 Speaker 4: Not small change, but it's a fraction really of the 70 00:03:50,280 --> 00:03:53,000 Speaker 4: overall federal budget, which is, you know, trillions of dollars. 71 00:03:53,280 --> 00:03:56,480 Speaker 2: But there are lots of competing priorities for that money. 72 00:03:57,480 --> 00:04:01,680 Speaker 4: This money has been earmarked or lots of different things. 73 00:04:01,760 --> 00:04:04,240 Speaker 4: People have talked about using it primarily to pay down 74 00:04:04,600 --> 00:04:09,000 Speaker 4: the deficit, reduce the federal debt. Scott Besstt, the Treasury Secretary, 75 00:04:09,000 --> 00:04:11,760 Speaker 4: has talked about bringing down the deficit to GDP ratio, 76 00:04:11,880 --> 00:04:16,120 Speaker 4: which is a key metric for judging a country's economic health. Basically, 77 00:04:16,200 --> 00:04:18,640 Speaker 4: everybody kind of wants to get their hands on this money, 78 00:04:19,200 --> 00:04:21,120 Speaker 4: and it makes it a little bit complicated to then 79 00:04:21,160 --> 00:04:23,599 Speaker 4: start to say, oh, we're going to start cutting checks 80 00:04:23,680 --> 00:04:27,159 Speaker 4: using this revenue stream, because there's only so much that 81 00:04:27,200 --> 00:04:29,000 Speaker 4: the government is going to be bringing in over the 82 00:04:29,080 --> 00:04:32,479 Speaker 4: next few years. Estimates are around about three hundred billion 83 00:04:32,520 --> 00:04:32,880 Speaker 4: a year. 84 00:04:33,480 --> 00:04:36,320 Speaker 2: Trump has claimed that he doesn't have to choose between 85 00:04:36,360 --> 00:04:39,719 Speaker 2: bringing down the deficit and issuing dividend checks that he 86 00:04:39,760 --> 00:04:40,359 Speaker 2: can do both. 87 00:04:40,600 --> 00:04:42,919 Speaker 3: Now we're going to do a dividend, and we're also 88 00:04:43,000 --> 00:04:46,840 Speaker 3: going to be reducing debt we have because of fighting 89 00:04:46,880 --> 00:04:51,039 Speaker 3: and others. We have a thirty seven trigger in the debt. 90 00:04:51,240 --> 00:04:54,880 Speaker 2: Since Trump announced sweeping global tariffs on April second, the 91 00:04:54,960 --> 00:04:58,599 Speaker 2: national debt has risen by five point five percent. The 92 00:04:58,720 --> 00:05:01,920 Speaker 2: US hit thirty eight it's billion dollars in debt in October. 93 00:05:02,920 --> 00:05:06,159 Speaker 2: But for everyday voters, bringing down the deficit sounds a 94 00:05:06,200 --> 00:05:09,240 Speaker 2: lot more abstract than receiving a check in the mail, 95 00:05:09,560 --> 00:05:13,119 Speaker 2: And Nancy Cook, who's covered Trump since his first term, says, 96 00:05:13,440 --> 00:05:17,280 Speaker 2: that's a political calculus this administration is well aware of. 97 00:05:17,760 --> 00:05:20,440 Speaker 5: They did cut stimulus checks when Trump was president. At 98 00:05:20,440 --> 00:05:23,479 Speaker 5: the beginning of COVID, Biden did the same thing. The 99 00:05:23,480 --> 00:05:25,640 Speaker 5: stimulus checks were really born out of the fact that 100 00:05:25,640 --> 00:05:28,640 Speaker 5: the economy was in the tank and unemployment was high, 101 00:05:28,880 --> 00:05:32,320 Speaker 5: and so those stimulus checks were really given to people 102 00:05:32,360 --> 00:05:34,400 Speaker 5: as a way to kind of patch over what was 103 00:05:34,480 --> 00:05:38,840 Speaker 5: just a really unusual time. I think Trump always likes 104 00:05:38,839 --> 00:05:41,840 Speaker 5: the idea though, of kind of a simple branding I mean, 105 00:05:41,880 --> 00:05:44,560 Speaker 5: it's like you send people two thousand dollars checks. The 106 00:05:44,640 --> 00:05:47,000 Speaker 5: average American is not going to know that it came 107 00:05:47,000 --> 00:05:49,360 Speaker 5: from tariff revenue. You know, they're not going to care. 108 00:05:49,440 --> 00:05:51,480 Speaker 5: They're just going to see that like Trump sent them 109 00:05:51,480 --> 00:05:54,640 Speaker 5: a check, and then the hope for the Republicans would 110 00:05:54,640 --> 00:05:57,039 Speaker 5: be they would vote accordingly in the midterms. And so 111 00:05:57,120 --> 00:06:00,000 Speaker 5: I think politically that's how the White House is thinking 112 00:06:00,120 --> 00:06:00,520 Speaker 5: about this. 113 00:06:00,960 --> 00:06:04,680 Speaker 2: So what is Trump's play here as he doubles down 114 00:06:04,839 --> 00:06:08,680 Speaker 2: on this idea. What do you think he's trying to accomplish. 115 00:06:09,240 --> 00:06:13,040 Speaker 2: Is the main priority getting his name on a check again? 116 00:06:13,240 --> 00:06:16,039 Speaker 5: Yes, I mean just the short answers, Yes, he wants 117 00:06:16,040 --> 00:06:18,359 Speaker 5: his name on a check. Trump is just really on 118 00:06:18,400 --> 00:06:20,600 Speaker 5: the defensive right now. He has not had a good 119 00:06:20,680 --> 00:06:24,400 Speaker 5: few weeks between the Epstein files and Republicans sort of 120 00:06:24,440 --> 00:06:26,040 Speaker 5: not going along on the hill with his idea of 121 00:06:26,120 --> 00:06:30,320 Speaker 5: the filibuster. Democrats swept a bunch of elections in early November, 122 00:06:30,440 --> 00:06:32,760 Speaker 5: and so he is just looking for ways to juice 123 00:06:32,760 --> 00:06:35,440 Speaker 5: the economy ahead of the midterms. And we've seen him 124 00:06:35,440 --> 00:06:37,760 Speaker 5: do that with the check's idea. We've seen them have 125 00:06:37,880 --> 00:06:43,440 Speaker 5: to roll back some tariffs on some key agricultural products, coffee, bananas, beef, 126 00:06:43,560 --> 00:06:45,320 Speaker 5: you know, just to try to give people a little 127 00:06:45,360 --> 00:06:46,960 Speaker 5: bit more relief at the grocery store. 128 00:06:47,080 --> 00:06:47,279 Speaker 3: I know. 129 00:06:47,360 --> 00:06:49,000 Speaker 2: He was even, you know, floating the idea of a 130 00:06:49,000 --> 00:06:52,120 Speaker 2: fifty year mortgage, which people also have questions about the 131 00:06:52,120 --> 00:06:54,440 Speaker 2: feasibility and the viability of. But it seems to be 132 00:06:54,440 --> 00:06:58,880 Speaker 2: part of this broader desperation to address affordability right now. 133 00:06:58,920 --> 00:07:01,640 Speaker 5: Absolutely, I think part of the problem is that there's 134 00:07:01,680 --> 00:07:04,479 Speaker 5: both the policy considerations, like how do we bring down prices, 135 00:07:04,520 --> 00:07:06,840 Speaker 5: but how do we also make people feel like we're 136 00:07:06,839 --> 00:07:10,920 Speaker 5: taking it seriously. Trump this week at an investment forum 137 00:07:11,000 --> 00:07:13,560 Speaker 5: with the Saudi's who were in town. You know, he 138 00:07:13,720 --> 00:07:17,360 Speaker 5: had this amazing line where he said, sort of dismissively, 139 00:07:17,440 --> 00:07:21,080 Speaker 5: like Democrats came up with this idea of affordability, but they. 140 00:07:21,000 --> 00:07:24,560 Speaker 6: Came up with the new word affordability. They look at 141 00:07:24,560 --> 00:07:28,480 Speaker 6: the we were all about affordability, and everyone assumes that 142 00:07:28,480 --> 00:07:30,960 Speaker 6: that meant said, no, their prices were high. 143 00:07:31,560 --> 00:07:33,720 Speaker 5: In that same forum, he said, the stock market is 144 00:07:33,720 --> 00:07:34,600 Speaker 5: doing great. 145 00:07:34,600 --> 00:07:35,360 Speaker 4: Since the election. 146 00:07:35,600 --> 00:07:39,800 Speaker 6: The stock market has set and this is a little 147 00:07:39,840 --> 00:07:43,160 Speaker 6: more than nine months forty six all time record has 148 00:07:44,160 --> 00:07:47,400 Speaker 6: and the growth is now amazing and it's lifting up. 149 00:07:47,440 --> 00:07:50,160 Speaker 5: But that stuff doesn't always trickle down to people when 150 00:07:50,200 --> 00:07:52,440 Speaker 5: they're trying to buy a home or go to the 151 00:07:52,440 --> 00:07:55,480 Speaker 5: grocery store and their groceries are fifty dollars more expensive 152 00:07:55,480 --> 00:07:57,600 Speaker 5: than they were three years ago. He is having a 153 00:07:57,600 --> 00:07:59,800 Speaker 5: hard time, I think, wrapping his mind around the idea 154 00:07:59,840 --> 00:08:02,920 Speaker 5: that that Americans don't view the economy as a golden 155 00:08:02,960 --> 00:08:03,840 Speaker 5: age like he does. 156 00:08:04,600 --> 00:08:07,960 Speaker 2: Issuing two thousand dollars checks could offer immediate relief to 157 00:08:08,000 --> 00:08:11,440 Speaker 2: Americans struggling to afford basics right now, just like the 158 00:08:11,480 --> 00:08:14,760 Speaker 2: COVID stimulus checks were a boost during a previous period 159 00:08:14,800 --> 00:08:18,680 Speaker 2: of economic turmoil. But there was also a downside to 160 00:08:18,760 --> 00:08:20,880 Speaker 2: all that Pandemic era stimulus. 161 00:08:21,440 --> 00:08:25,640 Speaker 5: Mainstream economists agree that that really contributed to the historically 162 00:08:25,720 --> 00:08:28,360 Speaker 5: high inflation that we saw. Just that amount of money 163 00:08:28,400 --> 00:08:29,560 Speaker 5: pumped into the economy. 164 00:08:30,080 --> 00:08:33,000 Speaker 2: All that extra money circulating around the economy in twenty 165 00:08:33,040 --> 00:08:36,040 Speaker 2: twenty one and twenty twenty two set off a flurry 166 00:08:36,080 --> 00:08:41,720 Speaker 2: of consumer spending. While pandemic disruptions constrain supply, economists say 167 00:08:41,760 --> 00:08:46,000 Speaker 2: the sudden demand contributed to driving prices up, fueling inflation 168 00:08:46,280 --> 00:08:50,520 Speaker 2: that's still here today, and some economists feared these dividends 169 00:08:50,679 --> 00:08:52,120 Speaker 2: could do a similar thing. 170 00:08:52,800 --> 00:08:55,439 Speaker 5: There would be a concern if they spent four hundred 171 00:08:55,440 --> 00:08:58,040 Speaker 5: and fifty billion two six hundred billion dollars on these 172 00:08:58,040 --> 00:09:01,400 Speaker 5: stimulus checks at a point when prices haven't still totally 173 00:09:01,440 --> 00:09:05,600 Speaker 5: come down, that that would cause more inflation again. And 174 00:09:05,640 --> 00:09:08,480 Speaker 5: so it's interesting that, you know, one of Trump's sort 175 00:09:08,480 --> 00:09:12,000 Speaker 5: of go to policy moves to deal with higher prices 176 00:09:12,080 --> 00:09:14,680 Speaker 5: and people's, you know, people being mad about the state 177 00:09:14,679 --> 00:09:17,920 Speaker 5: of the economy is to cut checks, which could actually 178 00:09:18,000 --> 00:09:19,240 Speaker 5: just add to more inflation. 179 00:09:22,440 --> 00:09:25,520 Speaker 2: After the break, we talk about the other hurdles facing 180 00:09:25,559 --> 00:09:37,960 Speaker 2: this idea and how Trump might navigate them. 181 00:09:38,040 --> 00:09:40,840 Speaker 3: When I spend when I pay people two thousand dollars 182 00:09:40,880 --> 00:09:46,160 Speaker 3: each for low and moderate incumbentment income people, everybody but 183 00:09:46,240 --> 00:09:47,599 Speaker 3: the rich, we'll get this. 184 00:09:48,160 --> 00:09:52,040 Speaker 2: President Donald Trump's proposal to send millions of Americans dividend 185 00:09:52,080 --> 00:09:55,560 Speaker 2: checks is part of the administration's effort to get people 186 00:09:55,600 --> 00:09:59,520 Speaker 2: feeling good about the economy again. But last time stimulus 187 00:09:59,559 --> 00:10:02,920 Speaker 2: checks w to millions of Americans, economists say they played 188 00:10:02,920 --> 00:10:06,320 Speaker 2: a role in creating the inflation we're dealing with today. 189 00:10:06,559 --> 00:10:09,480 Speaker 5: And that's something that federal government has been wrestling with. 190 00:10:09,520 --> 00:10:11,600 Speaker 5: The federal Reserve has been wrestling with and it's not 191 00:10:11,720 --> 00:10:14,480 Speaker 5: something that they've really been able to solve, and Americans 192 00:10:14,480 --> 00:10:16,880 Speaker 5: have been facing higher prices for the last several years 193 00:10:16,880 --> 00:10:17,439 Speaker 5: at this point. 194 00:10:18,240 --> 00:10:21,680 Speaker 2: That's White House reporter Nancy Cook again. The fear that 195 00:10:21,720 --> 00:10:24,400 Speaker 2: a new wave of two thousand dollars checks could send 196 00:10:24,400 --> 00:10:27,560 Speaker 2: prices even higher is just one of the reasons that 197 00:10:27,720 --> 00:10:30,800 Speaker 2: lots of people, from prominent economists to members of the 198 00:10:30,840 --> 00:10:34,720 Speaker 2: Trump administration and the Republican Party have been lukewarm on 199 00:10:34,760 --> 00:10:35,400 Speaker 2: the proposal. 200 00:10:35,600 --> 00:10:37,840 Speaker 4: People are very skeptical of this idea. 201 00:10:38,000 --> 00:10:40,760 Speaker 2: Treasury reporter Dan Flatley, and I. 202 00:10:40,640 --> 00:10:43,720 Speaker 4: Haven't spoken to him about it, but I even detect 203 00:10:43,760 --> 00:10:47,640 Speaker 4: a little bit of hesitancy in Secretary Besson's comments on 204 00:10:47,720 --> 00:10:51,199 Speaker 4: this issue. He sort of floated the idea of Americans 205 00:10:51,240 --> 00:10:52,880 Speaker 4: saving these checks if they are issued. 206 00:10:53,280 --> 00:10:56,520 Speaker 2: What Treasury Secretary Scott Besson was implying is that if 207 00:10:56,559 --> 00:10:59,680 Speaker 2: people put that money into savings, they're spending might not 208 00:10:59,800 --> 00:11:04,319 Speaker 2: drive inflation. Bessen has also suggested using the tariff revenue 209 00:11:04,360 --> 00:11:07,000 Speaker 2: to offset tax cuts instead of paying it out to 210 00:11:07,040 --> 00:11:11,360 Speaker 2: people directly. Meanwhile, lawmakers haven't jumped at the chance to 211 00:11:11,440 --> 00:11:12,600 Speaker 2: back this plan either. 212 00:11:12,960 --> 00:11:14,800 Speaker 4: My colleagues who cover Capitol Hill. Have spoken to a 213 00:11:14,840 --> 00:11:17,520 Speaker 4: lot of lawmakers who are very skeptical about this, and 214 00:11:17,679 --> 00:11:20,120 Speaker 4: you really would need, according to the letter of the law, 215 00:11:20,480 --> 00:11:23,360 Speaker 4: the consent of Congress or legislation passed by Congress in 216 00:11:23,480 --> 00:11:25,160 Speaker 4: order to do this. If you're going to have this 217 00:11:25,200 --> 00:11:29,000 Speaker 4: tariff revenue coming in, most lawmakers would prefer to see 218 00:11:29,040 --> 00:11:32,319 Speaker 4: that go directly toward bringing down the deficit, paying down 219 00:11:32,360 --> 00:11:36,720 Speaker 4: the debt, and rebalancing the US's books over time, rather 220 00:11:36,800 --> 00:11:40,040 Speaker 4: than injecting this money into the economy in a way 221 00:11:40,080 --> 00:11:44,600 Speaker 4: that could spark additional inflation and have very unpredictable effects 222 00:11:44,640 --> 00:11:46,679 Speaker 4: in terms of how this would all play out. 223 00:11:46,960 --> 00:11:50,000 Speaker 2: And just to be clear, Nancy, does Trump need Congress's 224 00:11:50,000 --> 00:11:52,679 Speaker 2: approval to follow through with this proposal. 225 00:11:52,880 --> 00:11:56,120 Speaker 5: Yes, he would need congressional approval. One of his aids 226 00:11:56,160 --> 00:11:59,120 Speaker 5: this week at an event the Bloomberg government did said 227 00:11:59,120 --> 00:12:00,840 Speaker 5: that they were looking at into ways that he could 228 00:12:00,880 --> 00:12:03,920 Speaker 5: do to unilaterally, but realistically, at this point he needs 229 00:12:04,000 --> 00:12:07,160 Speaker 5: congressional approval. And Dan is right. Senate Republicans people on 230 00:12:07,200 --> 00:12:09,440 Speaker 5: the Hill are very cool to this idea. This is 231 00:12:09,480 --> 00:12:11,360 Speaker 5: not something that they're interested in doing. 232 00:12:12,080 --> 00:12:14,480 Speaker 2: Well. I want to talk about another potential hurdle to 233 00:12:14,520 --> 00:12:17,120 Speaker 2: getting these checks out, which is the Supreme Court case 234 00:12:17,160 --> 00:12:21,080 Speaker 2: evaluating whether a large swath of Trump's tariffs are even legal. 235 00:12:21,720 --> 00:12:25,640 Speaker 2: Dan if tariffs are rolled back ruled illegal, does all 236 00:12:25,679 --> 00:12:28,880 Speaker 2: that money get clawed back too, And what would that 237 00:12:29,000 --> 00:12:31,040 Speaker 2: mean for a dividend like this. 238 00:12:31,440 --> 00:12:34,520 Speaker 4: Yeah, we don't exactly know what the process will look 239 00:12:34,640 --> 00:12:38,440 Speaker 4: like if the Supreme Court rules against Trump's tariffs. So, 240 00:12:38,480 --> 00:12:42,079 Speaker 4: in other words, if the Supreme Court decides that Trump 241 00:12:42,200 --> 00:12:46,160 Speaker 4: misused his emergency authorities in order to put these tariffs 242 00:12:46,200 --> 00:12:49,040 Speaker 4: into place, there is a school of thought that says 243 00:12:49,480 --> 00:12:52,240 Speaker 4: the government would have to refund this money to the 244 00:12:52,280 --> 00:12:55,000 Speaker 4: importers who have paid these tariffs up to this point. 245 00:12:55,440 --> 00:12:58,040 Speaker 4: There's also another school of thought that says the court 246 00:12:58,120 --> 00:13:01,720 Speaker 4: could make it prospective words, the government could keep the 247 00:13:01,760 --> 00:13:04,439 Speaker 4: money as collected so far, but going forward would no 248 00:13:04,480 --> 00:13:07,720 Speaker 4: longer be able to collect the revenue from tariffs cet 249 00:13:07,760 --> 00:13:11,560 Speaker 4: or implemented using these authorities. So either way, there's going 250 00:13:11,600 --> 00:13:13,760 Speaker 4: to be a drop in the amount of revenue that 251 00:13:13,800 --> 00:13:16,520 Speaker 4: the government is going to be collecting. If the government 252 00:13:16,559 --> 00:13:18,920 Speaker 4: has to pay back a substantial portion of that money, 253 00:13:19,160 --> 00:13:20,440 Speaker 4: it could make things very tricky. 254 00:13:20,840 --> 00:13:22,960 Speaker 5: The political people that I speak to in the Trump 255 00:13:23,040 --> 00:13:26,480 Speaker 5: Orbit largely believe that this is one case in which 256 00:13:26,480 --> 00:13:28,600 Speaker 5: the Supreme Court will not side with Trump, and. 257 00:13:28,640 --> 00:13:31,400 Speaker 2: Even in opening arguments, they seem quite skeptical, exactly. 258 00:13:31,440 --> 00:13:34,280 Speaker 5: You can hear that in the Justice's own questions about 259 00:13:34,320 --> 00:13:36,760 Speaker 5: the case, and so they're sort of working from the 260 00:13:36,760 --> 00:13:39,320 Speaker 5: idea that it will get struck down. These tariffs are 261 00:13:39,360 --> 00:13:42,000 Speaker 5: such a big part of what he firmly believes will 262 00:13:42,000 --> 00:13:45,080 Speaker 5: make the economy better, and he's always viewed tariff revenue 263 00:13:45,080 --> 00:13:47,280 Speaker 5: as a way like if he has this extra money, 264 00:13:47,320 --> 00:13:50,520 Speaker 5: then he could do different things on tax policy, and 265 00:13:50,600 --> 00:13:52,839 Speaker 5: so it will just be another big blow to his 266 00:13:52,920 --> 00:13:55,960 Speaker 5: economic agenda ahead of the twenty twenty six men terms. 267 00:13:56,720 --> 00:13:59,000 Speaker 2: Is there any sort of three D chests happening here 268 00:13:59,040 --> 00:14:03,000 Speaker 2: where if two thousand dollars checks using this tariff revenue 269 00:14:03,040 --> 00:14:06,520 Speaker 2: get sent out, it would be harder to claw back 270 00:14:06,559 --> 00:14:08,800 Speaker 2: tariff revenue in the case that the Supreme Court does 271 00:14:08,880 --> 00:14:09,600 Speaker 2: not rule his way. 272 00:14:10,080 --> 00:14:13,120 Speaker 4: I think that there is a little bit of strategizing 273 00:14:13,280 --> 00:14:14,920 Speaker 4: happening on the part of the White House when it 274 00:14:14,960 --> 00:14:18,920 Speaker 4: comes to this case. You brought up one potential justification, 275 00:14:19,040 --> 00:14:21,640 Speaker 4: but one that we hear a lot from administration officials 276 00:14:22,440 --> 00:14:25,720 Speaker 4: is that the president needs to retain these authorities and 277 00:14:25,760 --> 00:14:29,600 Speaker 4: the ability to impose tariffs for national security reasons. He 278 00:14:29,680 --> 00:14:32,640 Speaker 4: needs to be able to use it as leverage when 279 00:14:32,640 --> 00:14:35,680 Speaker 4: it comes to bargaining over different things with other countries. 280 00:14:36,160 --> 00:14:38,720 Speaker 4: So whether the two thousand dollars checks play into this 281 00:14:38,800 --> 00:14:41,760 Speaker 4: court case directly is sort of an open question. But 282 00:14:41,800 --> 00:14:45,000 Speaker 4: there's certainly a number of justifications that the administration has 283 00:14:45,040 --> 00:14:47,480 Speaker 4: made for why it's important for the president to have 284 00:14:47,560 --> 00:14:50,240 Speaker 4: this ability and to have flexibility and how he uses 285 00:14:50,280 --> 00:14:52,800 Speaker 4: it that others have argued that the law does not 286 00:14:52,960 --> 00:14:53,600 Speaker 4: give him. 287 00:14:53,920 --> 00:14:57,280 Speaker 2: Well, how is the Federal Reserve thinking about this? Has 288 00:14:57,400 --> 00:15:01,200 Speaker 2: Jron Powell commented on this idea, It impact how the 289 00:15:01,240 --> 00:15:04,720 Speaker 2: Fed thinks about the urgency of addressing inflation. Again, if 290 00:15:04,760 --> 00:15:08,040 Speaker 2: this were to happen or seem more possible to have. 291 00:15:08,080 --> 00:15:10,680 Speaker 4: In what the Fed is looking at at the moment 292 00:15:10,840 --> 00:15:15,320 Speaker 4: is a very mixed picture, right. So you have inflation 293 00:15:15,520 --> 00:15:18,360 Speaker 4: that has come down obviously from the high rates that 294 00:15:18,400 --> 00:15:20,040 Speaker 4: we saw a couple of years ago, but is still 295 00:15:20,080 --> 00:15:23,640 Speaker 4: stubbornly around that three percent range. You have a job 296 00:15:23,720 --> 00:15:26,400 Speaker 4: market which is slowing a little bit at a time, 297 00:15:26,840 --> 00:15:30,240 Speaker 4: and you have Federal Reserve officials who are trying to 298 00:15:30,280 --> 00:15:33,240 Speaker 4: decide whether or not they want to do another twenty 299 00:15:33,240 --> 00:15:37,000 Speaker 4: five basis point cut in December, notwithstanding the pressure that 300 00:15:37,160 --> 00:15:40,240 Speaker 4: Pow is getting from President Trump to lower interest rates 301 00:15:40,280 --> 00:15:43,120 Speaker 4: and lower them quickly, but also to try to figure 302 00:15:43,160 --> 00:15:47,440 Speaker 4: out how to navigate this sort of set of mixed signals, 303 00:15:47,840 --> 00:15:50,200 Speaker 4: also at a time, by the way, where data is 304 00:15:50,240 --> 00:15:52,760 Speaker 4: a little bit behind because of the government shutdown and 305 00:15:52,800 --> 00:15:55,640 Speaker 4: other things are happening in the economy. So it doesn't 306 00:15:55,640 --> 00:15:58,880 Speaker 4: make Pal's job any easier, and it also makes Secretary 307 00:15:58,920 --> 00:16:01,240 Speaker 4: Beston's job a little bit more difficult as he tries 308 00:16:01,280 --> 00:16:04,280 Speaker 4: to interview successors to Pal and present those to Trump. 309 00:16:05,520 --> 00:16:07,880 Speaker 2: Trump has said he wants these checks to go out 310 00:16:07,880 --> 00:16:11,600 Speaker 2: sometime next year, and there's a lot in flux that 311 00:16:11,640 --> 00:16:13,600 Speaker 2: Powell's termus FED chair is said to end in May 312 00:16:13,640 --> 00:16:15,800 Speaker 2: of twenty twenty six, and there's this process underway to 313 00:16:15,880 --> 00:16:19,360 Speaker 2: name his successor. As you mentioned, Dan, Secretary Bessant is 314 00:16:19,960 --> 00:16:23,520 Speaker 2: deeply involved in both these efforts. So what will you 315 00:16:24,080 --> 00:16:26,640 Speaker 2: be looking out for in the economy and from the 316 00:16:26,640 --> 00:16:30,040 Speaker 2: White House and from the Treasury as we try to 317 00:16:30,120 --> 00:16:34,119 Speaker 2: understand whether and when these checks will actually. 318 00:16:33,920 --> 00:16:38,600 Speaker 4: Go out voters? As Nancy has talked about were unhappy 319 00:16:38,600 --> 00:16:41,800 Speaker 4: with the state of the economy. Poles heading into the 320 00:16:41,880 --> 00:16:44,640 Speaker 4: last presidential election showed that they trusted Trump to a 321 00:16:44,640 --> 00:16:47,800 Speaker 4: certain extent, more than Vice President Harris. I think that 322 00:16:47,840 --> 00:16:53,360 Speaker 4: Trump launched on a very ambitious economic agenda, overturning years 323 00:16:53,400 --> 00:16:58,120 Speaker 4: of received wisdom about how the economy works, basically on 324 00:16:58,240 --> 00:17:01,840 Speaker 4: his own gut instincts. So what we're seeing now is 325 00:17:02,280 --> 00:17:05,160 Speaker 4: some feedback from that experiment, and how that plays into 326 00:17:05,160 --> 00:17:07,640 Speaker 4: the midterm elections is going to be very interesting. I 327 00:17:07,640 --> 00:17:10,040 Speaker 4: was at an event with jd Vance where he was 328 00:17:10,160 --> 00:17:14,160 Speaker 4: talking about needing more patients from voters as the Trump 329 00:17:14,160 --> 00:17:19,320 Speaker 4: administration tries to implement this wholesale economic reimagining. The problem 330 00:17:19,400 --> 00:17:21,840 Speaker 4: is is that people are already hurting, right, and so 331 00:17:22,280 --> 00:17:25,360 Speaker 4: I think that it's a question of how much patients 332 00:17:25,480 --> 00:17:28,960 Speaker 4: voters are really going to have with this really ambitious 333 00:17:29,160 --> 00:17:31,679 Speaker 4: remaking of the US economy. And I think there's going 334 00:17:31,720 --> 00:17:34,000 Speaker 4: to be a lot of messaging around that, and who 335 00:17:34,080 --> 00:17:37,000 Speaker 4: does that more effectively will be something that will be 336 00:17:37,119 --> 00:17:39,080 Speaker 4: determinative of the midterm elections. 337 00:17:43,880 --> 00:17:46,919 Speaker 2: This is the Big Take from Bloomberg News. I'm Sarah Holder. 338 00:17:47,760 --> 00:17:50,240 Speaker 2: To get more from the Big Take and unlimited access 339 00:17:50,280 --> 00:17:54,120 Speaker 2: to all of bloomberg dot com. Subscribe today at bloomberg 340 00:17:54,160 --> 00:17:58,359 Speaker 2: dot com. Slash podcast offer thanks for listening, we'll be 341 00:17:58,440 --> 00:18:01,080 Speaker 2: back tomorrow, and 342 00:18:01,359 --> 00:18:03,160 Speaker 5: You slay mind.