1 00:00:00,200 --> 00:00:02,920 Speaker 1: Hey, everyone, welcome back to the Mark ma Show, where 2 00:00:02,920 --> 00:00:07,560 Speaker 1: we're talking about bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and the decentralized revolution 3 00:00:07,720 --> 00:00:11,200 Speaker 1: that we are living through right now. It's big. It's 4 00:00:11,200 --> 00:00:13,680 Speaker 1: going to be the biggest shift that we have ever seen. 5 00:00:13,840 --> 00:00:16,520 Speaker 1: And I have a special guest in the studio with 6 00:00:16,560 --> 00:00:19,880 Speaker 1: me today to talk about bitcoin and how you can 7 00:00:19,880 --> 00:00:22,800 Speaker 1: think about it in your own portfolio and some different 8 00:00:22,800 --> 00:00:24,079 Speaker 1: ways to think about it. And so I'm in the 9 00:00:24,079 --> 00:00:27,440 Speaker 1: studio today with Andy Edstrom. He is a c f 10 00:00:27,560 --> 00:00:29,640 Speaker 1: A and a CFP. Those are a lot of letters. 11 00:00:29,640 --> 00:00:33,040 Speaker 1: He can tell us what those mean. Um. He works 12 00:00:33,080 --> 00:00:36,200 Speaker 1: with a company called Swan Bitcoin as an advisor. Um, 13 00:00:36,280 --> 00:00:40,040 Speaker 1: and so he is a financial advisor, financial planner. He's 14 00:00:40,040 --> 00:00:42,880 Speaker 1: not yours, So go talk to your own. Uh don't, 15 00:00:43,440 --> 00:00:45,519 Speaker 1: he's not yours. But anyway, Andy, thanks so much for 16 00:00:45,600 --> 00:00:48,560 Speaker 1: joining me today. Yeah. Mark, thanks, it's a real pleasure 17 00:00:48,600 --> 00:00:51,440 Speaker 1: being with you. And appreciate that disclaimer right there that 18 00:00:52,320 --> 00:00:55,240 Speaker 1: this is financial either you're a disclaiming out for you 19 00:00:55,280 --> 00:00:58,080 Speaker 1: there on that one you anticipated that you knew it 20 00:00:58,120 --> 00:01:00,040 Speaker 1: was coming. Yeah yeah, yeah, Well we gotta say that 21 00:01:00,120 --> 00:01:02,000 Speaker 1: all the time. So it's not financial advice, right, So 22 00:01:02,200 --> 00:01:05,160 Speaker 1: um So anyway, you know, I want to talk about bitcoin. 23 00:01:05,240 --> 00:01:07,039 Speaker 1: Obviously we're talking about that, but I want to talk 24 00:01:07,040 --> 00:01:09,399 Speaker 1: about it from a different angle that I typically do 25 00:01:09,520 --> 00:01:12,640 Speaker 1: because I'm not a financial advisor or financial planner, and 26 00:01:12,680 --> 00:01:15,759 Speaker 1: so um you are, and um, you know, right off 27 00:01:15,760 --> 00:01:17,320 Speaker 1: the bat, I would just like to start with that, 28 00:01:17,400 --> 00:01:20,760 Speaker 1: like most financial advisors or planners, they don't talk about 29 00:01:20,760 --> 00:01:22,680 Speaker 1: bitcoin as a matter of fact, is I understand it. 30 00:01:22,720 --> 00:01:25,960 Speaker 1: I have my sister in law and she's hopefully not listening. 31 00:01:26,040 --> 00:01:28,200 Speaker 1: She works for Charles Schwab, and she told me that 32 00:01:28,240 --> 00:01:31,000 Speaker 1: even if her clients ask her about it, she's not 33 00:01:31,160 --> 00:01:33,760 Speaker 1: even allowed to talk about it, even if they ask 34 00:01:33,800 --> 00:01:36,160 Speaker 1: her about it. And so I know that there's a 35 00:01:36,160 --> 00:01:38,560 Speaker 1: lot of that in the industry. Um, where's the industry 36 00:01:38,600 --> 00:01:41,839 Speaker 1: ad And how is it that you're different than everybody else? Yeah, 37 00:01:41,880 --> 00:01:43,640 Speaker 1: that's a great question, and it is sort of mind 38 00:01:43,680 --> 00:01:46,640 Speaker 1: boggling that we're still at that place where the people 39 00:01:46,680 --> 00:01:49,600 Speaker 1: who work for Schwab can't talk about it. So, you know, 40 00:01:50,120 --> 00:01:55,160 Speaker 1: I get into bitcoin in and it was when I 41 00:01:55,200 --> 00:01:58,160 Speaker 1: published my book Why Buy Bitcoin? And at the at 42 00:01:58,200 --> 00:02:00,880 Speaker 1: that time and I think still today, it's the only 43 00:02:01,160 --> 00:02:03,600 Speaker 1: bitcoin investment thesis in the form of a book published 44 00:02:03,640 --> 00:02:06,520 Speaker 1: by a financial advisor. So I'm an outlier in that regard. Now, 45 00:02:06,520 --> 00:02:10,480 Speaker 1: when I put the book out in nobody in the 46 00:02:10,600 --> 00:02:14,920 Speaker 1: regular way financial advice space I want to talk about bitcoin. 47 00:02:15,360 --> 00:02:17,520 Speaker 1: Almost nobody. I mean, I'm sure there were exceptions, but 48 00:02:17,560 --> 00:02:21,440 Speaker 1: I couldn't find him. Where we sit a few years 49 00:02:21,520 --> 00:02:25,560 Speaker 1: later here a couple of years later, is the independent 50 00:02:26,040 --> 00:02:30,560 Speaker 1: investment advisors are starting to take action. Um, you mentioned, 51 00:02:30,720 --> 00:02:33,519 Speaker 1: you know, my involvement with Swan bitcoin. I'm watching a 52 00:02:33,760 --> 00:02:37,480 Speaker 1: swant an advisor services product at the moment, and the 53 00:02:37,480 --> 00:02:39,760 Speaker 1: reason I'm doing it now is I think we're at 54 00:02:39,800 --> 00:02:46,000 Speaker 1: an inflection point in acceptance and adoption among financial advisors. However, 55 00:02:46,840 --> 00:02:49,799 Speaker 1: it's not like everybody's on board all of a sudden, 56 00:02:50,480 --> 00:02:54,640 Speaker 1: as you pointed out, folks, especially financial advisors that work 57 00:02:54,840 --> 00:02:59,520 Speaker 1: for major custodians, major companies that provide services to financial 58 00:02:59,560 --> 00:03:02,840 Speaker 1: advisors and by extension, their clients, the big ones are 59 00:03:02,880 --> 00:03:05,800 Speaker 1: still lagging right there, not there yet. It's the small 60 00:03:05,880 --> 00:03:09,680 Speaker 1: independence that are more flexible, that don't have to go 61 00:03:09,760 --> 00:03:13,760 Speaker 1: through large bureaucracies basically to get something approved. Those are 62 00:03:13,760 --> 00:03:16,320 Speaker 1: the guys who are taking action for the most part. 63 00:03:16,680 --> 00:03:21,600 Speaker 1: But still, as you imply, the larger organizations are taking 64 00:03:21,600 --> 00:03:25,119 Speaker 1: their time. My expectations that will change in the next 65 00:03:25,120 --> 00:03:27,840 Speaker 1: couple of years. But that's where we are today as 66 00:03:27,880 --> 00:03:29,920 Speaker 1: I see it. Do you think some of that's because 67 00:03:29,919 --> 00:03:32,520 Speaker 1: they're incentivized not to talk about it because like they 68 00:03:32,520 --> 00:03:35,400 Speaker 1: want to sell their company's products, or is it Is 69 00:03:35,440 --> 00:03:37,920 Speaker 1: it because of legal reasons or regulatory reasons that they 70 00:03:37,920 --> 00:03:41,400 Speaker 1: can't talk about it? Yeah? I think that here you 71 00:03:41,440 --> 00:03:45,560 Speaker 1: have to parse bitcoin a little bit from the rest 72 00:03:45,560 --> 00:03:49,840 Speaker 1: of crypto. So definitely there's legal risk with respect to 73 00:03:50,040 --> 00:03:54,440 Speaker 1: classification as a security for a large portion of the 74 00:03:54,440 --> 00:03:57,400 Speaker 1: cryptocurrency or crypto assets space, or the digital asset space, 75 00:03:57,480 --> 00:04:00,680 Speaker 1: let's call it. Bitcoin does not have that same risk. 76 00:04:00,720 --> 00:04:03,320 Speaker 1: Bitcoin is one of the very few digital assets that 77 00:04:03,480 --> 00:04:08,320 Speaker 1: is unambiguously not a security under US law. So then 78 00:04:08,320 --> 00:04:10,280 Speaker 1: if you say, well, okay, but why haven't they acted 79 00:04:10,280 --> 00:04:14,520 Speaker 1: on bitcoin? I think some is still reputational. Let's be honest, 80 00:04:14,880 --> 00:04:19,160 Speaker 1: the mainstream media had done done a very poor job, um, 81 00:04:19,200 --> 00:04:22,640 Speaker 1: in covering bitcoin. I mean honestly, I I read factual 82 00:04:22,880 --> 00:04:27,080 Speaker 1: errors all the time in articles in the Wall Street Journal, 83 00:04:27,200 --> 00:04:30,760 Speaker 1: New York Times, Washington Post. Um, you know, outlets like yours, 84 00:04:31,360 --> 00:04:35,440 Speaker 1: and you specifically had done a much better job basically 85 00:04:35,480 --> 00:04:38,640 Speaker 1: telling it how it really is with bitcoin. So, um, 86 00:04:38,760 --> 00:04:42,520 Speaker 1: my hats off to you there, and yeah, so so 87 00:04:42,560 --> 00:04:45,240 Speaker 1: I think some of it is reputational and then some 88 00:04:45,360 --> 00:04:48,839 Speaker 1: of it is on boarding and the effort and time. 89 00:04:48,880 --> 00:04:53,880 Speaker 1: It takes basically two run through the legal and the 90 00:04:54,000 --> 00:04:59,520 Speaker 1: compliance and the accounting and the custody issues associated with 91 00:05:00,120 --> 00:05:05,440 Speaker 1: providing services to clients. And you know, Michael Sailor sort 92 00:05:05,440 --> 00:05:08,160 Speaker 1: of laid out a playbook for corporations to do that. 93 00:05:08,839 --> 00:05:12,680 Speaker 1: Even if you have a high incentive or really motivated 94 00:05:12,680 --> 00:05:15,520 Speaker 1: to get it done as an organization, it can take 95 00:05:15,560 --> 00:05:18,680 Speaker 1: you months and months, potentially years basically to UH to 96 00:05:18,839 --> 00:05:23,159 Speaker 1: check all the boxes within your legal department, your compliance department, etcetera, etcetera. 97 00:05:23,640 --> 00:05:27,520 Speaker 1: So I think they also face that headwind and it's 98 00:05:27,520 --> 00:05:30,240 Speaker 1: a mixed bag. I mean, you had players like Fidelity, right, 99 00:05:30,279 --> 00:05:33,880 Speaker 1: Fidelity was mining bitcoin, I don't know, five or six 100 00:05:33,960 --> 00:05:37,279 Speaker 1: years ago, maybe even longer. Um even they even they 101 00:05:37,279 --> 00:05:41,440 Speaker 1: have been treading pretty carefully in terms of the actual 102 00:05:41,520 --> 00:05:45,960 Speaker 1: products that they're providing to UH to clients, and so yeah, 103 00:05:45,960 --> 00:05:48,240 Speaker 1: it just takes time I think for these UH, for 104 00:05:48,320 --> 00:05:51,120 Speaker 1: these large organizations to act on it. And just to 105 00:05:51,200 --> 00:05:54,760 Speaker 1: your question about, oh, you know, are these guys dragging 106 00:05:54,760 --> 00:05:56,960 Speaker 1: their feet because they stand to lose fees or they 107 00:05:57,080 --> 00:05:59,599 Speaker 1: stand a loose economics on it. I used to think that, 108 00:05:59,640 --> 00:06:02,520 Speaker 1: and I'm not sure that's the case anymore, because the 109 00:06:02,520 --> 00:06:06,520 Speaker 1: reality is, you can package bitcoin as a financial product 110 00:06:06,880 --> 00:06:09,560 Speaker 1: if you're a if you're an investment organization, and you 111 00:06:09,600 --> 00:06:12,520 Speaker 1: can charge a fee just like any other product. Now, 112 00:06:13,080 --> 00:06:15,919 Speaker 1: someday years in the future that might not be as true, 113 00:06:16,800 --> 00:06:19,320 Speaker 1: but these guys can make money on it. And so 114 00:06:19,640 --> 00:06:22,240 Speaker 1: I think that it has more to do with those 115 00:06:22,320 --> 00:06:26,280 Speaker 1: legal and compliance and just running the traps, you know, 116 00:06:26,400 --> 00:06:29,720 Speaker 1: doing the work over time, you know, sort of inertia 117 00:06:29,800 --> 00:06:31,800 Speaker 1: of the large organizations. I think it has more to 118 00:06:31,839 --> 00:06:34,520 Speaker 1: do with that and less to do with the you know, 119 00:06:34,600 --> 00:06:36,360 Speaker 1: the the worry about, oh, this is going to eat 120 00:06:36,360 --> 00:06:39,920 Speaker 1: our business. Okay, that's a good perspective. I just heard 121 00:06:39,920 --> 00:06:42,840 Speaker 1: a lot of times it's like they financial advisors will 122 00:06:42,880 --> 00:06:46,440 Speaker 1: sell the products that their firm offers. So a lot 123 00:06:46,440 --> 00:06:48,800 Speaker 1: of times you hear that they're they're they're more sales 124 00:06:48,880 --> 00:06:51,599 Speaker 1: reps than they are advisors. And that's probably true for something, 125 00:06:51,640 --> 00:06:54,240 Speaker 1: but maybe not for everybody. Yeah, well, no, Look, you 126 00:06:54,279 --> 00:06:57,440 Speaker 1: make a good point in that as a financial advisor, 127 00:06:57,520 --> 00:07:01,000 Speaker 1: like wind back the clock a couple of years, what 128 00:07:01,040 --> 00:07:04,520 Speaker 1: were your options for getting your clients into bitcoin. Well, 129 00:07:04,560 --> 00:07:07,359 Speaker 1: you could have bought the Bitcoin Trust right ticker GBTC, 130 00:07:08,160 --> 00:07:12,440 Speaker 1: and until relatively recently, that was a little problematic because 131 00:07:12,440 --> 00:07:14,720 Speaker 1: it traded at a premium to the net asset value, right, 132 00:07:14,760 --> 00:07:17,120 Speaker 1: so you were you were buying a dollar's worth a 133 00:07:17,120 --> 00:07:20,000 Speaker 1: bitcoin by paying a dollar twenty five, which was not 134 00:07:20,120 --> 00:07:21,960 Speaker 1: great because you had to figure out, well, there's a 135 00:07:21,960 --> 00:07:26,360 Speaker 1: good chance that that premium goes away in the long term. 136 00:07:26,400 --> 00:07:28,760 Speaker 1: So I think that was a barrier for sure, even 137 00:07:28,760 --> 00:07:33,760 Speaker 1: though that product was carried by major custodians like Schwab 138 00:07:33,840 --> 00:07:37,520 Speaker 1: and like TD Merri Trade. Um. So that's a fair point. 139 00:07:37,600 --> 00:07:40,440 Speaker 1: And if the alternative was, oh, you know, tell the 140 00:07:40,480 --> 00:07:42,880 Speaker 1: client I don't know, opened an account at one of 141 00:07:42,880 --> 00:07:46,160 Speaker 1: the major exchanges, well then yeah, that's assets that leaves 142 00:07:46,480 --> 00:07:49,680 Speaker 1: the pool that you charge fees on, and so that 143 00:07:49,760 --> 00:07:53,680 Speaker 1: was that was problematic. Now the good news is most 144 00:07:53,720 --> 00:07:56,960 Speaker 1: of those problems are solved. We don't yet have the 145 00:07:57,160 --> 00:08:00,880 Speaker 1: true spot e t F where or you can buy 146 00:08:00,880 --> 00:08:03,360 Speaker 1: a dollars worth a bitcoin for a dollar and pay 147 00:08:03,360 --> 00:08:06,640 Speaker 1: a reasonable management fee UM and be subject to all 148 00:08:06,720 --> 00:08:10,160 Speaker 1: the protections that the the SEC and the u S 149 00:08:10,280 --> 00:08:14,600 Speaker 1: jurisdiction affords. Were not quite there yet, but there are 150 00:08:14,680 --> 00:08:19,880 Speaker 1: now better usable services available to financial advisors, some of 151 00:08:19,920 --> 00:08:22,160 Speaker 1: which have just popped up in the last year that 152 00:08:22,280 --> 00:08:26,840 Speaker 1: actually are credible alternatives and the financial advisors can take 153 00:08:26,880 --> 00:08:29,920 Speaker 1: advantage of And of course they have to do their diligence, 154 00:08:30,080 --> 00:08:31,760 Speaker 1: you know, they have to look at their options. It 155 00:08:31,840 --> 00:08:34,640 Speaker 1: takes potentially months of work to to get up to speed, 156 00:08:34,640 --> 00:08:37,760 Speaker 1: and that's kind of where we are today. Yeah, okay, well, 157 00:08:38,080 --> 00:08:40,040 Speaker 1: I'm glad you were able to cut through and UH 158 00:08:40,080 --> 00:08:42,400 Speaker 1: and be one of the guys leading this UM. Now 159 00:08:42,400 --> 00:08:44,160 Speaker 1: that we've kind of established that base, there's a lot 160 00:08:44,160 --> 00:08:46,480 Speaker 1: of stuff that I want to jump into. UH. Specifically, 161 00:08:46,520 --> 00:08:50,559 Speaker 1: I'd like to dig into UM portfolio management. So maybe 162 00:08:50,559 --> 00:08:53,000 Speaker 1: you could kind of give us a background or a 163 00:08:53,040 --> 00:08:55,480 Speaker 1: way to think through how the average person might want 164 00:08:55,520 --> 00:08:58,760 Speaker 1: to think about UM bringing bitcoin into their portfolio, how 165 00:08:58,840 --> 00:09:01,160 Speaker 1: much they should buy, and just kind of a thought process. 166 00:09:01,200 --> 00:09:03,920 Speaker 1: I know that the difference or the answer is it depends, 167 00:09:04,400 --> 00:09:06,520 Speaker 1: but maybe there's some framework that we'll get through. By 168 00:09:06,559 --> 00:09:08,360 Speaker 1: the way, you're listening to the Mark mass Show. You 169 00:09:08,480 --> 00:09:11,160 Speaker 1: we're talking about bitcoin. We're talking about the decentralized revolution. 170 00:09:11,160 --> 00:09:14,559 Speaker 1: I'm in the studio with Andy Extreme. We're talking about 171 00:09:14,920 --> 00:09:17,520 Speaker 1: portfolio management with bitcoin. He's gonna tell us how to 172 00:09:17,640 --> 00:09:20,319 Speaker 1: think through that, how much bitcoin you should buy. We'll 173 00:09:20,360 --> 00:09:22,400 Speaker 1: be right back. Don't go away, all right, Welcome back. 174 00:09:22,400 --> 00:09:24,720 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Mark Moa Show. We're talking about bitcoin. 175 00:09:24,880 --> 00:09:28,240 Speaker 1: We're talking about this decentralized revolution. And we're specifically talking 176 00:09:28,280 --> 00:09:31,600 Speaker 1: about today. UM, looking at bitcoin as a through the 177 00:09:31,640 --> 00:09:34,000 Speaker 1: lens of a financial advisor, and how you can think 178 00:09:34,000 --> 00:09:37,160 Speaker 1: about putting bitcoin into your own portfolio. Um, if you 179 00:09:37,160 --> 00:09:39,080 Speaker 1: should put int your portfolio, how much you should think 180 00:09:39,080 --> 00:09:41,640 Speaker 1: about putting your portfolio, et cetera. I'm in the studio 181 00:09:41,720 --> 00:09:44,480 Speaker 1: with Andy Edstrom. He's the c f A CFP. He's 182 00:09:44,480 --> 00:09:47,200 Speaker 1: an advisor with Swan Bitcoin and he helps people think 183 00:09:47,280 --> 00:09:50,760 Speaker 1: through these exact type of questions. He gets paid for this, 184 00:09:50,960 --> 00:09:52,800 Speaker 1: and I've got him here to talk to you. Now. 185 00:09:52,800 --> 00:09:55,040 Speaker 1: He's not your financial advisor, but he can help you 186 00:09:55,080 --> 00:09:57,560 Speaker 1: talk through this. So Andy, UM, we were you kind 187 00:09:57,559 --> 00:10:00,240 Speaker 1: of filled this in on maybe why I find acial 188 00:10:00,280 --> 00:10:02,840 Speaker 1: advisors haven't been talking about bitcoin and how they're kind 189 00:10:02,840 --> 00:10:05,160 Speaker 1: of coming around to it, but now moving forward, So 190 00:10:05,480 --> 00:10:09,560 Speaker 1: walk us through some brain exercises of people who either 191 00:10:09,600 --> 00:10:11,960 Speaker 1: are thinking about adding some bitcoin to their portfolio or 192 00:10:12,000 --> 00:10:14,440 Speaker 1: maybe maybe we start with why people should add some 193 00:10:14,480 --> 00:10:17,920 Speaker 1: bitcoin to their portfolio and then we'll go onto how Yeah, 194 00:10:17,960 --> 00:10:20,360 Speaker 1: that's a great question mark. And here I'm just gonna 195 00:10:20,360 --> 00:10:23,760 Speaker 1: apply the lens of pure investment. Right, there's other reasons 196 00:10:23,800 --> 00:10:25,960 Speaker 1: to own bitcoin, and we can talk about those, but 197 00:10:26,000 --> 00:10:28,160 Speaker 1: I'll lead those aside. So let's just look at it 198 00:10:28,240 --> 00:10:32,520 Speaker 1: as an investment. So the first characteristic is Bitcoin is 199 00:10:32,760 --> 00:10:37,079 Speaker 1: the best performing major assets of all time as far 200 00:10:37,120 --> 00:10:40,199 Speaker 1: as I know right the last ten years plus of performance. 201 00:10:40,520 --> 00:10:43,000 Speaker 1: It's basically on from zero to call it a trillion 202 00:10:43,000 --> 00:10:48,640 Speaker 1: dollars um. It's also probably the fastest asset to reach 203 00:10:48,760 --> 00:10:53,000 Speaker 1: a trillion dollars ever in history. Okay, so that's what um, Yeah, 204 00:10:53,160 --> 00:10:57,040 Speaker 1: very very impressive. Um. The second thing to consider is 205 00:10:57,440 --> 00:11:00,440 Speaker 1: in the context of an overall portfolio, and that's how 206 00:11:00,480 --> 00:11:02,760 Speaker 1: I think is a financial advisor on behalf of my 207 00:11:02,880 --> 00:11:07,240 Speaker 1: clients is doesn't have characteristics that play well with the 208 00:11:07,280 --> 00:11:10,600 Speaker 1: other assets, And as it turns out, it does, and 209 00:11:10,640 --> 00:11:16,320 Speaker 1: the reason is it's returns have low correlation to the 210 00:11:16,320 --> 00:11:19,560 Speaker 1: returns of other assets, and it's low correlation to the 211 00:11:19,600 --> 00:11:22,720 Speaker 1: returns of most other major assets. So I'm talking about 212 00:11:23,280 --> 00:11:29,560 Speaker 1: US stocks, foreign developed market stocks, emerging market stocks, bonds, gold. Okay, 213 00:11:29,640 --> 00:11:33,560 Speaker 1: in all cases, bitcoin sort of moves to the beat 214 00:11:33,559 --> 00:11:37,280 Speaker 1: of its own drum. Now all caveat and say that, yes, 215 00:11:37,480 --> 00:11:41,640 Speaker 1: Bitcoin has correlated more closely with stocks and especially tech 216 00:11:41,679 --> 00:11:45,719 Speaker 1: stocks in the last couple of years. Nevertheless, the correlation 217 00:11:45,800 --> 00:11:48,520 Speaker 1: is still relatively low. So what do you have. You 218 00:11:48,559 --> 00:11:51,520 Speaker 1: have a You have an asset that goes up in 219 00:11:51,600 --> 00:11:56,199 Speaker 1: value at a rapid clip right historically well over a year, 220 00:11:56,880 --> 00:12:01,040 Speaker 1: um two. It moves at a different pace than the 221 00:12:01,040 --> 00:12:04,040 Speaker 1: rest of the portfolio, so it has great characteristics in 222 00:12:04,160 --> 00:12:06,960 Speaker 1: terms of making money even when other assets are not 223 00:12:07,080 --> 00:12:11,200 Speaker 1: making money for the investor. And then three is the 224 00:12:11,280 --> 00:12:14,680 Speaker 1: potential value is still much much higher than where we 225 00:12:14,720 --> 00:12:17,280 Speaker 1: are today. So when I look at the valuation to bitcoin, 226 00:12:17,880 --> 00:12:22,520 Speaker 1: I see at least tens of trillions of dollars of 227 00:12:22,640 --> 00:12:27,480 Speaker 1: value over the long term, potentially even more. I can 228 00:12:27,480 --> 00:12:29,480 Speaker 1: talk about, you know, how I get to those numbers, 229 00:12:29,800 --> 00:12:32,680 Speaker 1: but suffice to say that if bitcoin is worth roughly 230 00:12:32,720 --> 00:12:35,160 Speaker 1: a trillion dollars, today in terms of the total value 231 00:12:35,160 --> 00:12:38,480 Speaker 1: of the network or of the total asset, there's still 232 00:12:39,120 --> 00:12:44,000 Speaker 1: multiples of potential upside. So I say, Wow, amazing performance 233 00:12:44,080 --> 00:12:47,960 Speaker 1: so far, likely amazing performance in the future. Of course, 234 00:12:48,000 --> 00:12:50,160 Speaker 1: we don't know what the future holds, but that's my expectation. 235 00:12:50,760 --> 00:12:54,600 Speaker 1: And it adds diversification benefit to the portfolio because it 236 00:12:54,640 --> 00:12:57,560 Speaker 1: has low correlation. It's returns up low correlation with the 237 00:12:57,559 --> 00:13:00,640 Speaker 1: rest of the assets in the portfolio. Um, it's really 238 00:13:01,000 --> 00:13:05,359 Speaker 1: a star performer in the context of an overall portfolio. 239 00:13:05,920 --> 00:13:09,000 Speaker 1: And then the last thing I'll say is for you know, 240 00:13:09,240 --> 00:13:12,040 Speaker 1: leave aside the past and look to the future. What 241 00:13:12,240 --> 00:13:14,160 Speaker 1: is this? This is something that I've heard you talk 242 00:13:14,200 --> 00:13:16,760 Speaker 1: about and I'm glad you're talking about it, um with 243 00:13:16,840 --> 00:13:19,880 Speaker 1: folks on your show, Which is, you know, is the 244 00:13:19,920 --> 00:13:22,560 Speaker 1: world of financial assets going to look in the next 245 00:13:22,559 --> 00:13:24,439 Speaker 1: decade like it has in the past couple of decades. 246 00:13:24,440 --> 00:13:26,719 Speaker 1: And my expectation, I think, like you is is No, 247 00:13:26,880 --> 00:13:31,120 Speaker 1: it's not. And uh. And the biggest risk that I 248 00:13:31,200 --> 00:13:39,040 Speaker 1: worry about personally is durable inflation. And I categorize bitcoin 249 00:13:39,600 --> 00:13:43,920 Speaker 1: as a hard money asset from from investment perspective. And 250 00:13:43,960 --> 00:13:47,280 Speaker 1: so when I look at my clients portfolio, as I say, Okay, 251 00:13:47,400 --> 00:13:52,000 Speaker 1: if there's a significant risk of durable, sustained higher inflation 252 00:13:52,559 --> 00:13:55,440 Speaker 1: now and in the future, boy, I really want to 253 00:13:55,480 --> 00:13:58,840 Speaker 1: own those hard money assets. And the hard money asset 254 00:13:59,480 --> 00:14:02,520 Speaker 1: of the past with gold, But the hard money asset 255 00:14:02,640 --> 00:14:06,559 Speaker 1: of the future appears to me to be bitcoin. Now, 256 00:14:06,559 --> 00:14:08,520 Speaker 1: when you say hard money asset, are you saying hard 257 00:14:08,559 --> 00:14:10,719 Speaker 1: money in a sense where people can't inflate it or 258 00:14:10,760 --> 00:14:14,120 Speaker 1: create more of it? That's exactly right, Mark, exactly right, 259 00:14:14,240 --> 00:14:18,720 Speaker 1: hard to make more of Okay. So um uh, there's 260 00:14:18,760 --> 00:14:22,520 Speaker 1: the whole correlation to the portfolio, and we could probably 261 00:14:22,520 --> 00:14:25,360 Speaker 1: spend an hour just talking about that specifically. Um. But 262 00:14:25,480 --> 00:14:27,560 Speaker 1: if we look at bitcoin and say, okay, it has 263 00:14:27,600 --> 00:14:30,080 Speaker 1: a I think it's got an easy five act. I 264 00:14:30,080 --> 00:14:32,000 Speaker 1: think it's got an easy ten X in front of it, right, 265 00:14:32,040 --> 00:14:34,200 Speaker 1: I mean Cathy Wood says it has a ten X. 266 00:14:34,240 --> 00:14:37,320 Speaker 1: I think if it got five of SMP reserves, it 267 00:14:37,360 --> 00:14:39,240 Speaker 1: could be a ten x. Right. So it has a 268 00:14:39,240 --> 00:14:40,920 Speaker 1: ten X. It maybe has a hundred X in front 269 00:14:40,920 --> 00:14:43,160 Speaker 1: of whatever whatever number you assigned to that um and 270 00:14:43,200 --> 00:14:45,320 Speaker 1: then you go, okay, well, what's the probability of it 271 00:14:45,400 --> 00:14:48,760 Speaker 1: achieving that five X or that ten x. UM. So 272 00:14:49,160 --> 00:14:51,200 Speaker 1: I think there's a one percent chance that that happens, 273 00:14:51,240 --> 00:14:53,760 Speaker 1: or there's a fifty percent chance that happens. Um. So 274 00:14:53,880 --> 00:14:57,880 Speaker 1: if people are very bullish or there's somewhat skeptical on that, 275 00:14:57,960 --> 00:14:59,880 Speaker 1: but you know, it's better than a zero percent chance 276 00:14:59,880 --> 00:15:03,400 Speaker 1: that to do that. Um, how would they think about now, um, 277 00:15:03,440 --> 00:15:07,400 Speaker 1: applying that to their portfolio. Yeah, that's like a risk 278 00:15:07,440 --> 00:15:09,840 Speaker 1: adjusted basis. And I think that's part of this whole 279 00:15:09,840 --> 00:15:12,400 Speaker 1: correlation and so forth right. Yeah, that's a great framing. Mark. 280 00:15:12,440 --> 00:15:14,520 Speaker 1: I like your framing there by the way, I agree 281 00:15:14,520 --> 00:15:17,200 Speaker 1: with you that to me, the upside is more than 282 00:15:17,200 --> 00:15:20,600 Speaker 1: ten x, and could be x, could even be higher. 283 00:15:20,640 --> 00:15:22,920 Speaker 1: But that's you know, that's kind of the brackets that 284 00:15:22,960 --> 00:15:24,800 Speaker 1: I that I put around it these days, at least 285 00:15:24,800 --> 00:15:28,720 Speaker 1: for the foreseeable future, let's say, for this decade. Um. 286 00:15:28,760 --> 00:15:33,920 Speaker 1: And as you point out, reasonable people can disagree about 287 00:15:33,960 --> 00:15:37,920 Speaker 1: the probability of success or the probability of failure for bitcoin. 288 00:15:38,880 --> 00:15:42,920 Speaker 1: I personally happened to think that the probability that bitcoin 289 00:15:43,680 --> 00:15:47,560 Speaker 1: reaches its potential, which is much higher than much higher 290 00:15:47,600 --> 00:15:51,920 Speaker 1: in price than where it is today, is actually greater. Um. 291 00:15:52,000 --> 00:15:54,640 Speaker 1: I've I've become more bullish. Let's say, since I think 292 00:15:54,640 --> 00:15:58,320 Speaker 1: I put thirty or a third probability UM on paper 293 00:15:58,320 --> 00:16:00,640 Speaker 1: in my book a couple of years ago. But facts 294 00:16:00,640 --> 00:16:04,280 Speaker 1: and circumstances and events that have transpired since then, not 295 00:16:04,440 --> 00:16:07,080 Speaker 1: least the pandemic, you know, have caused me to get 296 00:16:07,080 --> 00:16:09,520 Speaker 1: more bullish. So if we if we talk about if 297 00:16:09,520 --> 00:16:11,120 Speaker 1: we talk about that just for a second, like I 298 00:16:11,120 --> 00:16:14,280 Speaker 1: started buying in and uh, if I would have just 299 00:16:14,320 --> 00:16:16,960 Speaker 1: put the amount of money in UM that I've done 300 00:16:17,000 --> 00:16:19,040 Speaker 1: this year, that I would have put that back in, 301 00:16:20,800 --> 00:16:22,440 Speaker 1: I probably wouldn't be on the radio right now, right 302 00:16:22,560 --> 00:16:25,000 Speaker 1: or whatever. I don't know, but I didn't because it 303 00:16:25,040 --> 00:16:28,920 Speaker 1: was too risky right at who knew right in seen 304 00:16:29,080 --> 00:16:31,880 Speaker 1: it had become more developed, we launched the futures like that, 305 00:16:31,920 --> 00:16:33,400 Speaker 1: a lot of the risk was removed, but it was 306 00:16:33,400 --> 00:16:36,120 Speaker 1: still risky. Today I almost feel like we're at this 307 00:16:36,160 --> 00:16:38,760 Speaker 1: place where like almost all the risk has been removed 308 00:16:38,800 --> 00:16:40,280 Speaker 1: at this point, but we still have this ten X, 309 00:16:40,280 --> 00:16:42,760 Speaker 1: which makes it maybe the best risk adjusted trade we've 310 00:16:42,800 --> 00:16:46,560 Speaker 1: ever seen, maybe UM. But to to your point, no 311 00:16:46,720 --> 00:16:49,760 Speaker 1: reasonable person and so unfortunately there's a lot of unreasonable people. 312 00:16:50,040 --> 00:16:52,240 Speaker 1: I get over five thousand comments a week across all 313 00:16:52,280 --> 00:16:56,640 Speaker 1: my platforms, and people say it's never gonna work, um, 314 00:16:56,680 --> 00:16:59,280 Speaker 1: you know, or it's going to zero, and it's like, well, 315 00:17:00,080 --> 00:17:01,960 Speaker 1: that may be close to true, but you can't say 316 00:17:02,000 --> 00:17:05,080 Speaker 1: a percent, right, there's maybe a one percent chance that 317 00:17:05,119 --> 00:17:07,080 Speaker 1: succeeds or and so you have to figure out like 318 00:17:07,119 --> 00:17:10,160 Speaker 1: where your conviction is based off of that. I think 319 00:17:10,160 --> 00:17:13,080 Speaker 1: it's kind of what you're saying. Um, they're listening to 320 00:17:13,080 --> 00:17:15,280 Speaker 1: the Mark Yeah, you're listening to the Markmah Show. We're 321 00:17:15,320 --> 00:17:18,920 Speaker 1: talking about bitcoin. Um, we're talking with Andy Edstrom. He's 322 00:17:18,920 --> 00:17:21,760 Speaker 1: a c F a c FP, and he is talking 323 00:17:21,800 --> 00:17:26,640 Speaker 1: about how to incorporate bitcoin into our portfolio and specifically, uh, 324 00:17:26,680 --> 00:17:28,960 Speaker 1: we're about to We talked about where it could go, 325 00:17:29,119 --> 00:17:30,439 Speaker 1: so we think it can be worth a lot more 326 00:17:30,440 --> 00:17:32,720 Speaker 1: in the future. UM, we need once you figure out 327 00:17:32,760 --> 00:17:34,919 Speaker 1: what that probability is, what your conviction is, then you 328 00:17:34,920 --> 00:17:37,800 Speaker 1: can figure out how much you should bring indyr portfolio. 329 00:17:38,200 --> 00:17:42,160 Speaker 1: And he's gonna answer that question when we come back. Um, 330 00:17:42,240 --> 00:17:44,679 Speaker 1: you can find him on Twitter, um and look him up, 331 00:17:44,760 --> 00:17:46,520 Speaker 1: give him say you say you heard him on the radio. 332 00:17:46,560 --> 00:17:49,639 Speaker 1: You can find him at at Edstrom E D S 333 00:17:49,680 --> 00:17:53,119 Speaker 1: t R O M Andrew at Edstrom Andrew Um say, Hi, 334 00:17:53,160 --> 00:17:55,320 Speaker 1: of course I am one Mark Moss on Twitter. Shoot 335 00:17:55,320 --> 00:17:57,280 Speaker 1: me a message as well. We're gonna be right back 336 00:17:57,359 --> 00:17:59,240 Speaker 1: talking with Andy, and we are going to find out 337 00:17:59,280 --> 00:18:01,600 Speaker 1: what's your conviction level is and how to figure out 338 00:18:01,640 --> 00:18:04,320 Speaker 1: how much to put into bitcoin. We'll be right back. 339 00:18:04,400 --> 00:18:07,040 Speaker 1: Don't go away, all right, Welcome back. You're listening to 340 00:18:07,040 --> 00:18:09,160 Speaker 1: the Markma Show. We're talking about bitcoin, and we're talking 341 00:18:09,200 --> 00:18:13,080 Speaker 1: about this decentralized revolution, and specifically I'm in the studio 342 00:18:13,080 --> 00:18:16,880 Speaker 1: with Andy Edstrom. He is UH an advisor financial advisor 343 00:18:16,960 --> 00:18:20,760 Speaker 1: works with Swan bitcoin and he is talking through right now. 344 00:18:20,800 --> 00:18:22,919 Speaker 1: He kind of gave us where he thinks bitcoin could go. 345 00:18:22,960 --> 00:18:24,560 Speaker 1: I said, I think it has an easy tent X 346 00:18:24,560 --> 00:18:26,119 Speaker 1: in front of it. He agrees, he thinks it has 347 00:18:26,160 --> 00:18:30,000 Speaker 1: even more than that. Now, as he said, any reasonable 348 00:18:30,080 --> 00:18:33,080 Speaker 1: person you have to admit it has at least a 349 00:18:33,160 --> 00:18:35,880 Speaker 1: better than zero percent chance of doing that. So does 350 00:18:35,880 --> 00:18:39,560 Speaker 1: it have a one percent chance or chance or hundred 351 00:18:39,680 --> 00:18:42,040 Speaker 1: chance depending up what your conviction is? Now, Andy, you're 352 00:18:42,080 --> 00:18:44,639 Speaker 1: about to tell us based off of that, Um, how 353 00:18:44,680 --> 00:18:46,919 Speaker 1: should we think through adding a tour portfolio? How much 354 00:18:46,920 --> 00:18:49,480 Speaker 1: we should have in there? Yeah? So a couple of 355 00:18:49,480 --> 00:18:52,720 Speaker 1: thoughts there. Mark one is how much do you have 356 00:18:52,800 --> 00:18:55,479 Speaker 1: in hard money assets, which is a different way of 357 00:18:55,480 --> 00:18:59,480 Speaker 1: saying how much of your portfolio is assets that you 358 00:18:59,600 --> 00:19:02,359 Speaker 1: think are going to save your bacon in the event 359 00:19:02,480 --> 00:19:07,760 Speaker 1: of high sustained inflation. For me, for my clients on 360 00:19:07,840 --> 00:19:14,080 Speaker 1: average today, that's roughly okay. And that is basically bitcoin 361 00:19:14,520 --> 00:19:19,240 Speaker 1: and monetary medals, primarily gold. And you know, I personally 362 00:19:19,240 --> 00:19:22,560 Speaker 1: think that in the long run gold there's a possibility 363 00:19:22,560 --> 00:19:25,199 Speaker 1: that gold gets demonetized, right, which means an investment in 364 00:19:25,240 --> 00:19:27,520 Speaker 1: gold today it's probably not going to turn out well, 365 00:19:28,040 --> 00:19:31,439 Speaker 1: but for the foreseeable future, you know, next few years. 366 00:19:31,640 --> 00:19:36,160 Speaker 1: Basically I want my clients to own both bitcoin and gold. Now, 367 00:19:37,080 --> 00:19:41,040 Speaker 1: the question of you know how much bitcoin maybe counterintuitive. 368 00:19:41,040 --> 00:19:42,480 Speaker 1: I'll just tell you how I do it for my clients, 369 00:19:42,480 --> 00:19:45,040 Speaker 1: which is, most of my clients have roughly a five 370 00:19:45,080 --> 00:19:49,040 Speaker 1: percent position, And partly that's because I want to have 371 00:19:49,160 --> 00:19:53,360 Speaker 1: a an inflation resistant asset in the portfolio, and partly 372 00:19:53,359 --> 00:19:57,040 Speaker 1: it's because I expect to make a multiple on that investment. 373 00:19:57,960 --> 00:20:02,480 Speaker 1: And also partly because although I think there's almost zero 374 00:20:02,560 --> 00:20:06,080 Speaker 1: probability that bitcoin loses most of its value or goes 375 00:20:06,119 --> 00:20:10,240 Speaker 1: to zero, I do recognize that the volatility is high, 376 00:20:10,520 --> 00:20:16,119 Speaker 1: and my clients do not have infinite patients for the 377 00:20:16,200 --> 00:20:19,159 Speaker 1: volatility of this asset. And it really is a you know, 378 00:20:19,200 --> 00:20:22,760 Speaker 1: it's a it's an issue of human psychology because you know, 379 00:20:22,960 --> 00:20:26,920 Speaker 1: and I know, and probably your listeners know that volatility 380 00:20:26,960 --> 00:20:31,640 Speaker 1: doesn't really matter in the long run if you're accruing value, 381 00:20:31,680 --> 00:20:35,200 Speaker 1: if you're making money over time. But you know, the 382 00:20:35,640 --> 00:20:38,240 Speaker 1: lizard side of our brain, you know that those lower 383 00:20:38,800 --> 00:20:42,800 Speaker 1: baser parts of the brain that probably evolved much earlier 384 00:20:42,840 --> 00:20:46,879 Speaker 1: than our intelligent prefrontal cortex, those parts of the brains 385 00:20:46,920 --> 00:20:49,760 Speaker 1: get triggered the fear centers, the amygdala, etcetera, when we're 386 00:20:49,760 --> 00:20:53,080 Speaker 1: losing money. So for clients, it's kind of a balancing 387 00:20:53,119 --> 00:20:59,879 Speaker 1: act between the logical rational portfolio optimization versus the fear 388 00:21:00,400 --> 00:21:03,679 Speaker 1: that can get triggered in the event of of of 389 00:21:03,800 --> 00:21:06,200 Speaker 1: loss of value. And then the second thing I'll say 390 00:21:06,320 --> 00:21:10,320 Speaker 1: is I have clients at different risk levels, right, So 391 00:21:10,400 --> 00:21:12,200 Speaker 1: there are clients that want to shoot the lights out 392 00:21:12,200 --> 00:21:14,880 Speaker 1: and make a lot of money, high returns, and then 393 00:21:14,880 --> 00:21:17,439 Speaker 1: at the other end, they're the clients that you know, 394 00:21:17,480 --> 00:21:19,399 Speaker 1: barely want to even keep up with inflation. They just 395 00:21:19,400 --> 00:21:23,119 Speaker 1: want to avoid a catastrophe, you know, catastrophic loss, and 396 00:21:23,160 --> 00:21:25,720 Speaker 1: then there's ones in the middle. And what's interesting about 397 00:21:25,720 --> 00:21:29,560 Speaker 1: bitcoin is bitcoin is a good quote unquote high risk 398 00:21:29,600 --> 00:21:32,040 Speaker 1: asset because the returns have been high and are likely 399 00:21:32,080 --> 00:21:35,359 Speaker 1: to be high in the future. But it's also an 400 00:21:35,359 --> 00:21:38,200 Speaker 1: important low risk asset in the sense that a quote 401 00:21:38,280 --> 00:21:41,760 Speaker 1: unquote low risk portfolio classically defined has lots of bonds 402 00:21:41,760 --> 00:21:44,760 Speaker 1: in it, lots of fixed income and the and as 403 00:21:44,760 --> 00:21:48,080 Speaker 1: you know, the one thing that's kryptonite two bonds is inflation. 404 00:21:48,640 --> 00:21:51,760 Speaker 1: And so you kind of need to have I shouldn't 405 00:21:51,800 --> 00:21:53,440 Speaker 1: say you kind of need, you really need to have 406 00:21:53,560 --> 00:21:57,880 Speaker 1: that inflation proof asset, you know, or hard money asset hedge, 407 00:21:58,480 --> 00:22:01,639 Speaker 1: even in a quote unquote overs portfolio. And so for 408 00:22:01,760 --> 00:22:06,280 Speaker 1: my clients, bitcoin exists for for all those reasons in 409 00:22:06,359 --> 00:22:10,040 Speaker 1: the portfolio. So could it be as simple as saying, well, 410 00:22:10,160 --> 00:22:12,880 Speaker 1: I think it has a one percent chance of success, 411 00:22:12,880 --> 00:22:15,000 Speaker 1: so I might put one percent of my portfolio in it. 412 00:22:15,280 --> 00:22:17,479 Speaker 1: I think it has a twenty percent chance of getting there, 413 00:22:17,520 --> 00:22:20,080 Speaker 1: so I'll put a percent of my portfolio there. Or 414 00:22:20,160 --> 00:22:23,600 Speaker 1: is that too oversimplified. I think that's a little bit 415 00:22:23,600 --> 00:22:27,840 Speaker 1: oversimplified because of what does that mean in the extremes. 416 00:22:28,080 --> 00:22:31,360 Speaker 1: So even if I'm almost a hundred well, so, first 417 00:22:31,359 --> 00:22:33,640 Speaker 1: of all, I'm not a hundred percent confident of anything. Yeah, 418 00:22:33,680 --> 00:22:37,119 Speaker 1: I'm rather confident of of Bitcoin's success. But I have 419 00:22:37,240 --> 00:22:42,359 Speaker 1: to allow that there's from you said, you went from Yeah, 420 00:22:42,440 --> 00:22:45,159 Speaker 1: that's that's true. So there you go. That's that's an 421 00:22:45,160 --> 00:22:50,280 Speaker 1: indication of my confidence level. Um exactly. So. Um So 422 00:22:51,640 --> 00:22:53,919 Speaker 1: given that fact, though, what if you took it two extremes, 423 00:22:54,000 --> 00:22:55,800 Speaker 1: What if you took it to a d percent and 424 00:22:55,840 --> 00:23:00,160 Speaker 1: therefore you put a hundred percent of your portfolio in it. Um. 425 00:23:00,200 --> 00:23:02,119 Speaker 1: You know, I'm sure there are people in the world. 426 00:23:02,160 --> 00:23:03,439 Speaker 1: I know, there are people in the world that have 427 00:23:03,480 --> 00:23:08,119 Speaker 1: done effectively that you know, I think, Yeah, I think 428 00:23:08,200 --> 00:23:12,080 Speaker 1: that in most cases, those people, if it all goes 429 00:23:12,320 --> 00:23:16,080 Speaker 1: catastrophically bad, still have some back stop, you know. Maybe 430 00:23:16,080 --> 00:23:18,439 Speaker 1: they have earnings potential, right they have they have a 431 00:23:18,440 --> 00:23:20,840 Speaker 1: way that basically they can earn their way back into 432 00:23:20,920 --> 00:23:25,320 Speaker 1: a into a portfolio. Hopefully they do. And then um yeah, 433 00:23:25,320 --> 00:23:28,760 Speaker 1: So so I would say the percent of success equals 434 00:23:28,960 --> 00:23:33,400 Speaker 1: percent allocation to the portfolio probably is not quite It's 435 00:23:33,400 --> 00:23:35,040 Speaker 1: not the way I think about it. It is the 436 00:23:35,040 --> 00:23:37,760 Speaker 1: way to think about it directionally, so that I agree. Obviously, 437 00:23:37,800 --> 00:23:40,080 Speaker 1: the higher your confidence in the level of success, the 438 00:23:40,119 --> 00:23:44,360 Speaker 1: more allocation you should have. But I wouldn't go as 439 00:23:44,440 --> 00:23:47,040 Speaker 1: far as to say, you know, literally the math works 440 00:23:47,040 --> 00:23:49,520 Speaker 1: out as a multiple that way. Yeah, okay, what about 441 00:23:49,520 --> 00:23:51,080 Speaker 1: on the other side. By the way, you're listening to 442 00:23:51,119 --> 00:23:53,600 Speaker 1: the Markma Show, we're in the studio with Andy Edstrom. 443 00:23:53,640 --> 00:23:57,760 Speaker 1: We're talking about bitcoin, and we're talking specifically about portfolio allocation. 444 00:23:58,080 --> 00:24:00,080 Speaker 1: How much a bit kind should you have bit? And 445 00:24:00,320 --> 00:24:02,080 Speaker 1: if so, what are you buying it for? And and 446 00:24:02,480 --> 00:24:05,240 Speaker 1: how much should you have in your portfolio? So? Um, Andy, 447 00:24:05,280 --> 00:24:07,040 Speaker 1: what about the other side of that? So I work 448 00:24:07,080 --> 00:24:11,560 Speaker 1: with people who, um say, uh, there's nowhere else to 449 00:24:11,560 --> 00:24:13,119 Speaker 1: put bitcoin. I want to be a hunter per cent 450 00:24:13,160 --> 00:24:15,080 Speaker 1: of bitcoin, Like there's it doesn't make sense to put 451 00:24:15,160 --> 00:24:20,080 Speaker 1: any money anywhere else. What would you say to those people? Yeah, 452 00:24:20,200 --> 00:24:24,240 Speaker 1: I think that for a small segment of the population 453 00:24:25,240 --> 00:24:29,679 Speaker 1: that both believes in it as an investment and wants 454 00:24:29,720 --> 00:24:34,400 Speaker 1: to hold their own keys, uh for their own personal 455 00:24:34,480 --> 00:24:38,280 Speaker 1: security reasons, that can make sense. I think that's a 456 00:24:38,359 --> 00:24:42,640 Speaker 1: very small subset of the population. Uh, you know who 457 00:24:42,640 --> 00:24:47,080 Speaker 1: basically fully believe in it, they have investigated it, done 458 00:24:47,119 --> 00:24:50,359 Speaker 1: their due diligence, they know it inside it out, and 459 00:24:50,400 --> 00:24:55,240 Speaker 1: they've made the personal decision that this is really where 460 00:24:55,280 --> 00:24:58,480 Speaker 1: I want to park my wealth. And in fact, I'm 461 00:24:58,520 --> 00:25:00,879 Speaker 1: looking far enough ahead and to the future that I 462 00:25:00,920 --> 00:25:04,200 Speaker 1: think that bitcoin becomes the base money. And so to me, 463 00:25:04,320 --> 00:25:06,840 Speaker 1: this is just you know, putting my money in the 464 00:25:06,920 --> 00:25:11,520 Speaker 1: savings account or the bank account of the future. And look, 465 00:25:11,560 --> 00:25:15,840 Speaker 1: I get that perspective. That's not the perspective that I 466 00:25:15,840 --> 00:25:18,160 Speaker 1: can apply with my clients because I have to allow 467 00:25:18,240 --> 00:25:21,520 Speaker 1: for the possibility that things don't turn out that way. 468 00:25:21,640 --> 00:25:25,400 Speaker 1: And I can't say that I have any clients who 469 00:25:25,400 --> 00:25:29,719 Speaker 1: would be willing to live with the possibility of losing 470 00:25:29,760 --> 00:25:34,560 Speaker 1: their substantial fort fortunes, you know, because whatever that low 471 00:25:34,600 --> 00:25:39,119 Speaker 1: probability event that maims or kills bitcoin comes to pass. 472 00:25:39,680 --> 00:25:42,560 Speaker 1: So basically say, it's not what I've what I've told 473 00:25:42,600 --> 00:25:45,439 Speaker 1: people in regards to that is the reward of getting 474 00:25:45,480 --> 00:25:48,400 Speaker 1: that right isn't worth the risk of getting that wrong. 475 00:25:49,119 --> 00:25:51,679 Speaker 1: I like that framing a lot. I like that framing 476 00:25:51,680 --> 00:25:54,080 Speaker 1: a lot. And this is this gets yeah, exactly into 477 00:25:54,119 --> 00:25:56,600 Speaker 1: the risk of ruin, which is one of the most 478 00:25:56,640 --> 00:25:59,320 Speaker 1: important things about investing is to stay in the game right, 479 00:25:59,640 --> 00:26:03,639 Speaker 1: not get knocked out of the game and literally ruined. 480 00:26:04,080 --> 00:26:08,399 Speaker 1: And so if holding of your assets in one asset 481 00:26:09,480 --> 00:26:12,399 Speaker 1: could ruin you because of even a small probability of 482 00:26:12,400 --> 00:26:15,840 Speaker 1: that asset basically going to zero, then you're taking a 483 00:26:15,920 --> 00:26:20,440 Speaker 1: risk that you likely cannot afford. Yeah, and most people 484 00:26:20,480 --> 00:26:22,840 Speaker 1: listening probably know my story, and that happened to me 485 00:26:22,880 --> 00:26:26,240 Speaker 1: in two thousand eight. I was had multiple businesses. I 486 00:26:26,280 --> 00:26:29,040 Speaker 1: had a fortune. I sold my other business, I want 487 00:26:29,040 --> 00:26:31,399 Speaker 1: in high tech medical one, an online business. I was 488 00:26:31,480 --> 00:26:33,880 Speaker 1: developing real estate I sold, I sold all my apartments, 489 00:26:33,880 --> 00:26:35,560 Speaker 1: and I was all in on developing a couple of 490 00:26:35,560 --> 00:26:38,800 Speaker 1: pieces of property in southern California. And it did not 491 00:26:39,000 --> 00:26:41,600 Speaker 1: work out well for me at all, which is why 492 00:26:41,640 --> 00:26:44,720 Speaker 1: I constantly pound the table on diversification because uh uh, 493 00:26:45,080 --> 00:26:47,040 Speaker 1: the risk of me getting right was not worth the 494 00:26:47,119 --> 00:26:48,920 Speaker 1: risk of me getting it wrong, which I did and 495 00:26:49,200 --> 00:26:53,240 Speaker 1: it was a super painful lesson. Um. He listened to 496 00:26:53,280 --> 00:26:55,159 Speaker 1: the Mark mo Show. We're talking about bitcoin. I'm here 497 00:26:55,200 --> 00:26:58,400 Speaker 1: in the studio with Andy Edstrom. Um. He's a financial advisor. 498 00:26:58,640 --> 00:27:00,680 Speaker 1: I Swan advisors were talking about putting a bitcoin in 499 00:27:00,720 --> 00:27:04,760 Speaker 1: the portfolio. I want to talk about Um. You mentioned 500 00:27:04,760 --> 00:27:08,240 Speaker 1: earlier that it has a low correlation, and so I 501 00:27:08,240 --> 00:27:10,720 Speaker 1: want to talk about what that means. And specifically, UM, 502 00:27:10,840 --> 00:27:13,199 Speaker 1: let's say that I decided I want to be you know, 503 00:27:13,600 --> 00:27:18,959 Speaker 1: thirty percent of my portfolio bitcoin and to your point, UM, 504 00:27:19,000 --> 00:27:20,879 Speaker 1: I don't want to to all go away if the 505 00:27:20,880 --> 00:27:23,880 Speaker 1: market crashes, and so you talk about this non correlation, 506 00:27:24,240 --> 00:27:27,480 Speaker 1: but what if it all moves together? So we're gonna 507 00:27:27,480 --> 00:27:29,800 Speaker 1: talk about that when we come back. Um, you're listening 508 00:27:29,840 --> 00:27:31,600 Speaker 1: to the markma Show again. I'm in the studio with 509 00:27:31,600 --> 00:27:35,320 Speaker 1: Andy Edstrom. We're talking about bitcoin. You can find them 510 00:27:35,320 --> 00:27:38,800 Speaker 1: on Twitter at Edstrom Andrew. Of course, I am one 511 00:27:38,800 --> 00:27:40,959 Speaker 1: Mark Moss and it's a message don't go away. We'll 512 00:27:41,000 --> 00:27:42,919 Speaker 1: be your back up. Hey everyone, welcome back. You are 513 00:27:42,960 --> 00:27:45,360 Speaker 1: listening to the Mark mo Show. We're talking about bitcoin. 514 00:27:45,720 --> 00:27:49,440 Speaker 1: We are talking about this decentralized revolution, and specifically today 515 00:27:49,520 --> 00:27:52,600 Speaker 1: right now, we're talking about how to think through um 516 00:27:52,720 --> 00:27:54,760 Speaker 1: your own portfolio and should you add it? If so, 517 00:27:54,840 --> 00:27:57,280 Speaker 1: what should you expect and more importantly, how should you 518 00:27:57,359 --> 00:28:00,720 Speaker 1: allocate towards that. I'm in the studio with Andy Edstrom um. 519 00:28:00,920 --> 00:28:05,920 Speaker 1: He has a financial advisors financial planner with Swan Bitcoin UM. Now, Andy, 520 00:28:05,960 --> 00:28:08,120 Speaker 1: before the break, you were talking about how you would 521 00:28:08,160 --> 00:28:11,080 Speaker 1: you know if somebody I asked the question, if somebody said, hey, 522 00:28:11,359 --> 00:28:12,879 Speaker 1: I want to put a person in, what would you 523 00:28:12,880 --> 00:28:14,760 Speaker 1: tell them? And we talked about it's not you know, 524 00:28:14,960 --> 00:28:18,159 Speaker 1: worth the risk of getting it wrong. Um, And so 525 00:28:18,240 --> 00:28:20,600 Speaker 1: you had you you'd mentioned earlier about it has a 526 00:28:20,640 --> 00:28:24,280 Speaker 1: low correlation with the rest of the market. Um. However, 527 00:28:24,480 --> 00:28:26,800 Speaker 1: right now many people are saying that maybe it's become 528 00:28:26,880 --> 00:28:29,840 Speaker 1: highly financialized, and maybe it is moving with the market, 529 00:28:30,320 --> 00:28:33,800 Speaker 1: and so um, you know, as you reference what I 530 00:28:33,840 --> 00:28:35,919 Speaker 1: say that the market we're going into is different than 531 00:28:35,920 --> 00:28:37,919 Speaker 1: the market that we left behind, and we're kind of 532 00:28:38,000 --> 00:28:40,920 Speaker 1: driven by this fed stimulus today and all the markets 533 00:28:40,920 --> 00:28:44,320 Speaker 1: have been highly kind of correlated, I guess is the word. 534 00:28:44,320 --> 00:28:48,040 Speaker 1: And so, um, what if I do make a allocation 535 00:28:48,080 --> 00:28:49,720 Speaker 1: because I don't want to be wrong and lose everything 536 00:28:49,840 --> 00:28:52,640 Speaker 1: or temper centers on whatever it is, But then you know, 537 00:28:52,800 --> 00:28:56,000 Speaker 1: the bubble bursts and everything drops, and Bitcoin just drops 538 00:28:56,000 --> 00:28:58,920 Speaker 1: with everything else. So then doesn't matter what allocation I 539 00:28:58,960 --> 00:29:01,200 Speaker 1: had towards it. Yeah, if I do, I do, I do, 540 00:29:01,240 --> 00:29:04,120 Speaker 1: I lose the upside but still have the same downside. Yeah, 541 00:29:04,120 --> 00:29:05,880 Speaker 1: it's a really good point. Mark So, first of all, 542 00:29:05,880 --> 00:29:11,480 Speaker 1: your spot on about the fact that as institutions have 543 00:29:11,680 --> 00:29:14,440 Speaker 1: come to play a larger role in the ownership and 544 00:29:14,440 --> 00:29:18,000 Speaker 1: trading a bitcoin, Uh, there's no doubt that the correlation 545 00:29:18,320 --> 00:29:22,640 Speaker 1: to other risk assets, primarily stocks and especially tech stocks, 546 00:29:23,480 --> 00:29:26,600 Speaker 1: has increased. And so what that means is, especially when 547 00:29:26,600 --> 00:29:29,560 Speaker 1: you're looking at monthly data, you know, in a month 548 00:29:29,640 --> 00:29:32,640 Speaker 1: when the Nasdaq is down, there's a good chance that 549 00:29:32,640 --> 00:29:34,720 Speaker 1: that bitcoin is going to be down in price as well. 550 00:29:35,520 --> 00:29:37,920 Speaker 1: So and then so then you talk about, well, what 551 00:29:38,000 --> 00:29:41,240 Speaker 1: about scenario analysis, like you know, thinking about monthly returns 552 00:29:41,280 --> 00:29:43,920 Speaker 1: or quarterly returns. That's one thing, but if you're a 553 00:29:43,960 --> 00:29:47,400 Speaker 1: long term investor, you shouldn't care as much about those issues, 554 00:29:47,720 --> 00:29:52,160 Speaker 1: especially if you have your portfolio segmented from your cash. Right, 555 00:29:52,280 --> 00:29:54,800 Speaker 1: you have your cash to fund your household day to day, 556 00:29:55,440 --> 00:29:58,120 Speaker 1: but you're taking a long term view with your investment portfolio. 557 00:29:58,520 --> 00:30:01,280 Speaker 1: So do you really care about movements in price day 558 00:30:01,320 --> 00:30:04,520 Speaker 1: to day, month to month, quarter to quarter. Hopefully not. However, 559 00:30:04,720 --> 00:30:09,240 Speaker 1: if you get a scenario like you're implying, where maybe 560 00:30:09,240 --> 00:30:13,520 Speaker 1: the FED stop stimulating or stimulates less than people expect, 561 00:30:14,160 --> 00:30:17,800 Speaker 1: then yeah, most risk assets are likely to go down 562 00:30:17,800 --> 00:30:21,080 Speaker 1: in price. And in fact, we saw a taste of 563 00:30:21,120 --> 00:30:26,200 Speaker 1: that relatively recently when the Fed finally acknowledged that inflation 564 00:30:26,600 --> 00:30:30,080 Speaker 1: might not be transitory and that they might have to 565 00:30:30,280 --> 00:30:34,720 Speaker 1: withdraw their stimulus at a faster rate than they were anticipating. 566 00:30:35,360 --> 00:30:38,720 Speaker 1: So that is a very significant risk to the price 567 00:30:38,760 --> 00:30:43,720 Speaker 1: of bitcoin over months and even potentially years. Is basically, 568 00:30:43,760 --> 00:30:46,400 Speaker 1: do banks to the central banks stop printing as much 569 00:30:46,440 --> 00:30:50,080 Speaker 1: money and will therefore the price of your bitcoin go 570 00:30:50,240 --> 00:30:52,120 Speaker 1: down I'm talking about the US dollar price at the 571 00:30:52,120 --> 00:30:55,000 Speaker 1: same time that your stocks go down. Yeah, probably it will. 572 00:30:55,400 --> 00:30:58,400 Speaker 1: So you better be in a position where you're willing 573 00:30:58,440 --> 00:31:02,000 Speaker 1: to hold on for a significant period of time. And 574 00:31:02,040 --> 00:31:03,840 Speaker 1: just to play a little bit off of your earlier 575 00:31:03,880 --> 00:31:07,920 Speaker 1: comment about how unfortunately you got liquidated effectively with your 576 00:31:08,040 --> 00:31:11,640 Speaker 1: real estate portfolio in a prior life, Um, this is 577 00:31:11,680 --> 00:31:15,240 Speaker 1: why I do not lever bitcoin, right. I don't lever 578 00:31:15,280 --> 00:31:17,000 Speaker 1: it from my clients. I don't love it for myself 579 00:31:17,240 --> 00:31:19,080 Speaker 1: because I never want to be in a position where 580 00:31:19,360 --> 00:31:22,400 Speaker 1: the price moves down farther or faster than I thought 581 00:31:22,440 --> 00:31:25,160 Speaker 1: it would and I get a margin call Um, that 582 00:31:25,360 --> 00:31:28,200 Speaker 1: is that is your risk of ruin right there, at 583 00:31:28,280 --> 00:31:30,920 Speaker 1: least with respect to that asset, and it's something to 584 00:31:30,960 --> 00:31:34,160 Speaker 1: be very careful of. Yeah, you listen to the Mark 585 00:31:34,240 --> 00:31:36,160 Speaker 1: Mo show, we're talking about bitcoin. I'm in the studio 586 00:31:36,160 --> 00:31:39,080 Speaker 1: with Andy Edstrom. We're talking about portfolio allocation to bitcoin 587 00:31:39,240 --> 00:31:43,600 Speaker 1: right now. And so I guess back to back to 588 00:31:43,640 --> 00:31:45,400 Speaker 1: the question though, UM, I don't want to go on 589 00:31:45,440 --> 00:31:47,040 Speaker 1: to all in the bitcoin because I could all drop. 590 00:31:47,200 --> 00:31:49,800 Speaker 1: But um, if I only do bitcoin and the rest 591 00:31:49,840 --> 00:31:52,560 Speaker 1: is in across markets, but if they all drop at 592 00:31:52,600 --> 00:31:54,720 Speaker 1: the same time, am I in the same boat? I 593 00:31:54,760 --> 00:31:58,280 Speaker 1: guess as the question now, Um, I've looked at if 594 00:31:58,320 --> 00:32:00,520 Speaker 1: we don't know right, bitcoin hasn't been round through these 595 00:32:00,560 --> 00:32:02,800 Speaker 1: multiple bear markets. But if we look at what gold did, 596 00:32:02,880 --> 00:32:05,160 Speaker 1: like in two thousand and eight, it dropped about half 597 00:32:05,200 --> 00:32:07,080 Speaker 1: of what the stock market did, but then it rebounded 598 00:32:07,080 --> 00:32:09,360 Speaker 1: and reclaimed it high and seven months. Stocks took seven years. 599 00:32:09,480 --> 00:32:11,280 Speaker 1: Of course it wanted to make new highs and then 600 00:32:11,280 --> 00:32:13,960 Speaker 1: we can see March of gold did the same thing 601 00:32:13,960 --> 00:32:16,200 Speaker 1: and bitcoin kind of the same thing. Is that maybe 602 00:32:16,200 --> 00:32:18,720 Speaker 1: what you would expect if there was a big drop, 603 00:32:18,760 --> 00:32:21,280 Speaker 1: Maybe bitcoin does drop with everything, but then it rebounds 604 00:32:21,360 --> 00:32:23,840 Speaker 1: much faster, or what do you think would happen? That 605 00:32:23,840 --> 00:32:26,440 Speaker 1: would be my expectation, and it also depends on what 606 00:32:26,680 --> 00:32:29,360 Speaker 1: is the driver of the bear market. So when you 607 00:32:29,440 --> 00:32:32,280 Speaker 1: highlight the financial crisis, that was not only a bear market, 608 00:32:32,360 --> 00:32:35,400 Speaker 1: as you know, but it was a liquidation of leverage, 609 00:32:35,680 --> 00:32:38,080 Speaker 1: right of debt in the system. And when that happens, 610 00:32:38,400 --> 00:32:43,480 Speaker 1: literally every asset other than let's say, very short term 611 00:32:43,760 --> 00:32:47,959 Speaker 1: safe debt like treasuries loses value. Um. By the way, 612 00:32:48,000 --> 00:32:51,320 Speaker 1: there is an inflection when central bankers get nervous, and 613 00:32:51,320 --> 00:32:54,760 Speaker 1: we saw that inflection during the pandemic in March of 614 00:32:54,880 --> 00:32:57,960 Speaker 1: last year, which was okay, people got freaked out about 615 00:32:58,000 --> 00:33:01,840 Speaker 1: the pandemic. Stocks went down, Bitcoin was going down, then 616 00:33:01,880 --> 00:33:04,800 Speaker 1: gold started going down, and then treasuries started going down. 617 00:33:04,840 --> 00:33:06,680 Speaker 1: And that's the real moment of panic, right if you're 618 00:33:06,680 --> 00:33:09,240 Speaker 1: a central bankers like, oh god, the safe asset right 619 00:33:09,280 --> 00:33:12,640 Speaker 1: now is losing is listening value and that's when that's 620 00:33:12,680 --> 00:33:14,320 Speaker 1: when you pull out all the stops and do whatever 621 00:33:14,360 --> 00:33:16,600 Speaker 1: it takes basically to to keep the system with float. 622 00:33:17,080 --> 00:33:19,960 Speaker 1: So yeah, I expect, I fully expect the price of 623 00:33:19,960 --> 00:33:23,960 Speaker 1: bitcoin to go down in that kind of a liquidation event. 624 00:33:24,240 --> 00:33:27,440 Speaker 1: And that can happen because of some you know, outside 625 00:33:27,480 --> 00:33:29,920 Speaker 1: force like a pandemic or it can be happened. It 626 00:33:29,920 --> 00:33:33,480 Speaker 1: can happen just because central bankers, you know, pull away, 627 00:33:33,720 --> 00:33:36,360 Speaker 1: pull away the punch bowl. So yeah, but in the 628 00:33:36,400 --> 00:33:41,080 Speaker 1: long run it should pass. It has passed, right. We 629 00:33:41,120 --> 00:33:44,640 Speaker 1: saw that leverage liquidation take place last year in the pandemic, 630 00:33:45,080 --> 00:33:49,160 Speaker 1: and of course bitcoin soared in price. Ultimately, you know, 631 00:33:49,200 --> 00:33:52,800 Speaker 1: a year later the price was up by a multiple 632 00:33:53,320 --> 00:33:57,320 Speaker 1: And so yeah, I agree with your characterization there. Yeah. 633 00:33:57,520 --> 00:33:59,720 Speaker 1: And I mean just like the gold crash, like I said, No. 634 00:33:59,840 --> 00:34:02,440 Speaker 1: Eight in the March of twenty and bitcoin seemed to 635 00:34:02,440 --> 00:34:04,480 Speaker 1: follow that pattern. It's not really something that you want 636 00:34:04,480 --> 00:34:07,520 Speaker 1: to trade. I mean, it dropped in and rebounded so 637 00:34:07,640 --> 00:34:10,279 Speaker 1: quick and so fast. Um, that would be hard to 638 00:34:10,280 --> 00:34:14,280 Speaker 1: trade that. Um. And of course you know, the future 639 00:34:14,320 --> 00:34:17,719 Speaker 1: is uncertain. Um, so we don't know. Um. One one 640 00:34:17,719 --> 00:34:19,759 Speaker 1: other thing that I was thinking about as well as 641 00:34:20,080 --> 00:34:22,480 Speaker 1: we already mentioned kind of this financialization of the market 642 00:34:22,560 --> 00:34:25,760 Speaker 1: and maybe somehow kind of starting to move everything together. Um. 643 00:34:25,800 --> 00:34:27,799 Speaker 1: What about the futures that are that we are the 644 00:34:27,840 --> 00:34:30,600 Speaker 1: e t F that we have directly today. Um. And 645 00:34:30,920 --> 00:34:33,800 Speaker 1: because the futures in the United States they've rejected every 646 00:34:33,800 --> 00:34:38,680 Speaker 1: physical one and we only have the cash settled futures um, 647 00:34:38,719 --> 00:34:41,279 Speaker 1: And it seems like all that does is artificially or 648 00:34:41,320 --> 00:34:44,480 Speaker 1: create artificial demand. Right, It creates paper bitcoin in a sense, 649 00:34:44,520 --> 00:34:46,160 Speaker 1: and so instead of billions of dollars going into bitcoin, 650 00:34:46,160 --> 00:34:47,840 Speaker 1: now billions of dollars sitting on the sideline playing the 651 00:34:47,840 --> 00:34:53,040 Speaker 1: paper bet. Um, what do you see the risk in that? 652 00:34:53,120 --> 00:34:56,200 Speaker 1: Do you see that as something that has potential risk 653 00:34:56,280 --> 00:34:59,200 Speaker 1: to suppress the price of bitcoin, both in artificial demand 654 00:34:59,239 --> 00:35:01,640 Speaker 1: as well as even and potentially spoofing and naked shorting 655 00:35:01,640 --> 00:35:04,279 Speaker 1: and things like that. Yeah, I do see a risk mark, 656 00:35:04,440 --> 00:35:07,680 Speaker 1: and it depends though on the magnitude. In other words, 657 00:35:08,000 --> 00:35:09,920 Speaker 1: if I look at bitcoin, I see, okay, this is 658 00:35:09,920 --> 00:35:13,920 Speaker 1: a trillion dollar asset. If I see the value the 659 00:35:13,920 --> 00:35:19,280 Speaker 1: notional value of the futures outstanding growing much more quickly 660 00:35:19,640 --> 00:35:22,320 Speaker 1: and catching up with the value of the underlying asset, 661 00:35:22,880 --> 00:35:25,239 Speaker 1: then I start to get worried about it. Um, I 662 00:35:25,280 --> 00:35:29,440 Speaker 1: don't see that yet, and so I'm not especially worried 663 00:35:29,480 --> 00:35:32,839 Speaker 1: about it at the moment. I would characterize it as Yeah, 664 00:35:32,880 --> 00:35:36,000 Speaker 1: you're absolutely right that a paper claim against bitcoin is 665 00:35:36,040 --> 00:35:39,560 Speaker 1: not the same as the outright bitcoin. Um. The good 666 00:35:39,560 --> 00:35:43,360 Speaker 1: news about having futures products is, you know, for every 667 00:35:43,560 --> 00:35:47,880 Speaker 1: futures contract that is created for which the price of 668 00:35:47,920 --> 00:35:52,160 Speaker 1: the futures contract is higher than Spot. Right I I 669 00:35:52,400 --> 00:35:54,800 Speaker 1: you were in, were in a contango situation with respect 670 00:35:54,840 --> 00:36:00,040 Speaker 1: to the futures curve that does incrementally fuel demand, that 671 00:36:00,160 --> 00:36:03,520 Speaker 1: demand for bitcoin because chances are that, you know, if 672 00:36:03,560 --> 00:36:08,040 Speaker 1: the current Spot prices fifty k today and two months out, 673 00:36:08,239 --> 00:36:11,040 Speaker 1: your futures contract is at six k, well people are 674 00:36:11,040 --> 00:36:13,680 Speaker 1: gonna come in. They're gonna buy Spot basically to close 675 00:36:13,719 --> 00:36:17,320 Speaker 1: that gap. But yeah, I'm on the lookout for how 676 00:36:17,520 --> 00:36:21,320 Speaker 1: is this future market going to develop? Is the notional 677 00:36:21,400 --> 00:36:25,080 Speaker 1: value of all those futures, you know, growing rapidly and 678 00:36:25,120 --> 00:36:28,400 Speaker 1: becoming a significant portion of the overall value of the 679 00:36:28,440 --> 00:36:31,439 Speaker 1: Spot market, of the of the network itself. So I'm 680 00:36:31,520 --> 00:36:36,480 Speaker 1: I'm watching carefully. Mm hmm good, good point. Yeah, it's 681 00:36:36,520 --> 00:36:39,360 Speaker 1: definitely something to see what happens. Um, hopefully it doesn't 682 00:36:39,360 --> 00:36:41,879 Speaker 1: get ran away. I think, uh man, well, we'll see 683 00:36:41,880 --> 00:36:43,960 Speaker 1: about that. Um. You listen to the Markmall Show. We're 684 00:36:44,000 --> 00:36:46,600 Speaker 1: talking about bitcoin. We're talking in the studio here with 685 00:36:46,640 --> 00:36:49,480 Speaker 1: Andy Edstrom. You can find them on Twitter at Edstrom 686 00:36:49,520 --> 00:36:53,200 Speaker 1: and Andrew and we were talking about bitcoin and portfolio 687 00:36:53,320 --> 00:36:56,120 Speaker 1: allocation towards that hopefully that sets you up for next year. 688 00:36:56,600 --> 00:36:59,040 Speaker 1: We both agree that we have a we think a 689 00:36:59,160 --> 00:37:02,480 Speaker 1: ten X and of us not certain, but we think 690 00:37:02,480 --> 00:37:04,920 Speaker 1: there's an easy tex in front of us, and so um. 691 00:37:04,960 --> 00:37:07,640 Speaker 1: If you're not already, it's time to rethink what's your 692 00:37:07,680 --> 00:37:11,560 Speaker 1: portfolio allocation is for two to be ready to crush 693 00:37:11,600 --> 00:37:12,959 Speaker 1: the year and make it the best year of your life. 694 00:37:13,320 --> 00:37:14,920 Speaker 1: That's what I got for you today. Thanks so much 695 00:37:14,960 --> 00:37:16,160 Speaker 1: for listening. To see you next time.