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Speaker 1: The Big Vets on Campus Podcast podcast.

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Speaker 2: All right here we go right in the corner.

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Speaker 1: Then seconds of eight, so it just goes throw out

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Speaker 1: the basket under the basket. That's the truth for the wind.

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Speaker 3: Racle.

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Speaker 1: Just water that one from a fucking love.

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Speaker 3: What's up the gener nation? Welcome to the Big Bets

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Speaker 3: on Campus Podcast. This is the College Basketball Final four

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Speaker 3: betting preview.

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Speaker 4: I'm stucky.

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Speaker 3: Joining me today are my fellow BBOC co hosts Greg

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Speaker 3: Waddell and Mike Calabresee. We are going to break down

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Speaker 3: both semi final games in depth, starting with Illinois Yukon

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Speaker 3: and then we'll get to the highly anticipated battle between

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Speaker 3: Arizona and Michigan. Before we get into those games, if

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Speaker 3: in the app, you'll need Action Pro. All that plus

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Speaker 3: to Actionnetwork dot com slash pro now to take advantage. Gentlemen,

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Speaker 3: we have our four final teams. I like this mix.

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Speaker 3: We have two ones, a two, and a three seed,

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Speaker 3: and I thought that the committee made three critical three mistakes.

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Speaker 3: I thought they did a pretty good job. But I

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Speaker 3: thought Saint John's got job getting a five after what

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Speaker 3: they did in the biggiest tournament. That ended up you know,

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Speaker 3: then out Can and Duke. Maybe that ends up costing

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Speaker 3: them a deeper run. Same with Vandy. I thought that

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Speaker 3: they they should have been a three or four, not

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Speaker 3: a five. They end up having to play a road

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Speaker 3: game against Nebraska, and then I argued at the time

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Speaker 3: that Arizona should have been in the overall number one.

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Speaker 3: A lot of people were saying, why weren't Arizona one?

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Speaker 3: In Michigan two. I don't think you could put Michigan

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Speaker 3: ahead of Duke. You know, people are looking at Michigan. Now,

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Speaker 3: You've got to remember that Michigan lost in the Big

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Speaker 3: ten tournament, Duke won the AC Tournament, Duke beat Michigan

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Speaker 3: on a neutral court, Arizona won the Big twelve tournament,

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Speaker 3: and then Duke had some injuries. So if you did

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Speaker 3: put Arizona at the one, we would have avoided this

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Speaker 3: mega showdown until it's.

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Speaker 4: Not a given that it would have been the championship matchup.

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Speaker 3: But instead we have these two Juggernauts facing off in

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Speaker 3: the final four. And you're gonna hear a lot of

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Speaker 3: people say this is the actual, the de facto championship.

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Speaker 3: I think that's too disrespectful to Colorado and Illinois.

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Speaker 1: Either Yukon Yukon and Illinois Colorado I would appreciate to

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Speaker 1: be this deepen thou crown.

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Speaker 3: I'm thinking about the crown right now, but they either

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Speaker 3: would be you know, two possession favorites, the winner against

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Speaker 3: whoever wins the first game. But we're not talking about

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Speaker 3: a ten point spread here where the other team won't

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Speaker 3: won't have a chance. And the good thing is I

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Speaker 3: think both teams can slow the game down, which is

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Speaker 3: like the starting point if you're going to beat Arizona

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Speaker 3: or Michigan and the Illinois is just either either of

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Speaker 3: those things have got to make their threes and hope that,

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Speaker 3: you know, if it's Michigan, they don't.

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Speaker 4: We'll get into all those matchups. We'll have a live

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Speaker 4: show on Monday for the national title. By the way,

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Speaker 4: I thought.

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Speaker 3: That the Elite eight was really bad until Connecticut and

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Speaker 3: Duke saved the day in the game of the tournament.

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Speaker 3: What a meltdown by Duke again, just the stunning finish

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Speaker 3: and then the Brayln Mullen shot wild, which is the

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Speaker 3: shot of the tournament. There's been some really good late

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Speaker 3: game moments in this tournament, but that was just an

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Speaker 3: incredible shot for a guy who had been shooting seventeen

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Speaker 3: percent from three overs past fifty eight shots from beyond

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Speaker 3: the arc. Incredible. Hurley does it again. Fourteen to zero

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Speaker 3: against the spread in the tournament in round two or later.

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Speaker 3: Just silly, impossible numbers. But Greg, before we get into

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Speaker 3: these two games, any takeaways from the tournament or commentary

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Speaker 3: that you want to throw out there.

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Speaker 5: I mean, I'd love to know what devil Dan Hurley

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Speaker 5: worships to get here in the fashion that he's gotten here.

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Speaker 5: But I man, I have so much respect for the

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Speaker 5: poise of his players in that moment. I mean, they

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Speaker 5: executed that situation flawlessly. And then you think about Alex Caravan,

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Speaker 5: who is about to start in his fifth Final four

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Speaker 5: game in a four year career. How insane is that?

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Speaker 5: And so many players in that spot when given the

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Speaker 5: ball with five seconds left, I think would have thrown

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Speaker 5: up some junk and he just made the perfect winning play.

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Speaker 5: Mullen snails the shots stones sends them back to Indiana

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Speaker 5: where he's from. It was storybook And I think as

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Speaker 5: a fan, you know, certainly you guys know this.

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Speaker 2: I'm a Michigan fan.

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Speaker 5: I'm a big ten guy, so obviously I'm excited about

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Speaker 5: this final four.

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Speaker 2: But I think for a neutral party.

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Speaker 5: Fan two, these four teams that are left are sort

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Speaker 5: of each the individual embodiment of all of the elements

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Speaker 5: you need to win a national championship in this era.

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Speaker 5: You've got Illinois, who does international recruiting better than anybody.

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Speaker 5: You've got Michigan, who did transfer portal better than anybody

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Speaker 5: this offseason. I think you've got Arizona, who you can

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Speaker 5: argue is merging all of the roster building tactics together

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Speaker 5: between freshman international with Karchenkov and portal guys.

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Speaker 2: And then I think you've got.

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Speaker 5: The best program and the best coach in the Yukon Huskies.

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Speaker 5: It's going to be an awesome final four. Whoever comes

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Speaker 5: out of it unscathed will be a worthy champion. But

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Speaker 5: I'm with you Stock, it is hanging over this that

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Speaker 5: we couldn't save Arizona Michigan as the potential finish line moment.

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Speaker 2: I expect it to be a classic.

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Speaker 4: Though, for sure.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, And the thing that has to sting even more

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Speaker 3: for Duke is, you know, you have a nineteen point lead,

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Speaker 3: Yukon starts one of eighteen from three, like you have

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Speaker 3: to win that game. And what has to make that

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Speaker 3: just even more sour is Duke would have benefited more

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Speaker 3: than any team in the field from another week off

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Speaker 3: because of all their injuries. So like, if they just

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Speaker 3: got through that game, you get, you know, another five

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Speaker 3: to six days for Gungba and his back spasms, Foster

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Speaker 3: and his foot.

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Speaker 4: Like they've had.

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Speaker 3: They've had a lot of injuries, and we'll just have

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Speaker 3: to speculate what would have happened because we'll never know.

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Speaker 3: Calgary said anything you want to.

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Speaker 4: Say, Well, two things.

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Speaker 1: First, we get the highest rated matchup by the kenpum

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Speaker 1: Net ratings ever between Arizona and Michigan, which is very

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Speaker 1: But to rewind just a bit and look at the

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Speaker 1: end of that Duke Yukon game for starters, the referees

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Speaker 1: in this sport gets shitited on all the time, and

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Speaker 1: I think they deserve it. The consistency is never there

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Speaker 1: that you know, the ref show can take over and

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Speaker 1: ruin games. And with only five fouls, you call a

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Speaker 1: Tiki Tec foul on a big and all of a

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Speaker 1: sudden he's going to the bench ten minutes into the

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Speaker 1: game with his second foul. You can like absolutely materially

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Speaker 1: impact games when you screw up. I'd like to give

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Speaker 1: them their flowers for not giving a tea at the

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Speaker 1: end of that Yukon game, Like talk about that truly

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Speaker 1: would have been like that guy's name would have been

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Speaker 1: in every single newspaper. Everyone would know him, everyone would

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Speaker 1: say he ruins a classic March Madness moment because one

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Speaker 1: player came on the court and then Hurley did that

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Speaker 1: weird headbutting thing, whatever the hell that was. I just

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Speaker 1: appreciate that they went Stanley Cup playoff referee in the

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Speaker 1: final five minutes where it's like it has to be

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Speaker 1: so egregious and actually impact the game for us to

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Speaker 1: have the whole thing swing on that.

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Speaker 2: So I appreciate that they did that.

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Speaker 1: And the last piece that I'd like to discuss and

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Speaker 1: really kind of kick it to this panel, which is

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Speaker 1: shier like two straight years in the most critical moments

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Speaker 1: of your season with huge leads, which you have to

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Speaker 1: be good enough to build a program, to recruit, to

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Speaker 1: build an offensive system to build out those leads in

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Speaker 1: the first place. Like, obviously he's the right guy for

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Speaker 1: the job, but this is going to be one of

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Speaker 1: the longest offseasons of his entire life. Just trying to

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Speaker 1: look in the mirror and say to himself, what do

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Speaker 1: I need to do to close out that final four

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Speaker 1: game against Houston, to close out that Elite eight against Yukon.

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Speaker 1: Or you know, you could push back and say, if

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Speaker 1: Boozer makes any alteration to his pass, there it gets

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Speaker 1: around those two guys and there's not enough time they

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Speaker 1: win the game. So it's Hindsight's twenty twenty. You know,

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Speaker 1: you just hold the ball and you get fouled and

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Speaker 1: you play the percentages and you probably win ninety percent

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Speaker 1: of the time or better sucky, Like, what do you

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Speaker 1: think about that end of game situation? Do you lay

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Speaker 1: that at Shire's feet? Do you say that he put

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Speaker 1: it in the hands of his players and they didn't execute?

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Speaker 1: Like where do you come down? Or I should say,

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Speaker 1: how harsh do you come down on Duke's leading man?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, look, there was two guys wide open

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Speaker 3: down exactly by the basket, like, but at the end

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Speaker 3: of the day, that has to go on the coach

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Speaker 3: for you know, just the way that it happened. But

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Speaker 3: I think it's overblown in that like, oh, Shire is

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Speaker 3: not gonna win the big one. He's not the guy.

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Speaker 3: Like this commentary happens with every coach. It's hard to

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Speaker 3: win a championship, and this happens all the time. I

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Speaker 3: think Freezing Cold Takes retweeted someone today that said Jay

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Speaker 3: Wright needs to be fired in like twenty fourteen after

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Speaker 3: they blew a game in the tournament, like this happens

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Speaker 3: all the time. Will eventually get one, but you're the

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Speaker 3: head coach. You take the blame for the lack of

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Speaker 3: endgame execution. It's pretty funny that they actually were, like

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Speaker 3: the Duke Basketball count tweeted out them going over like

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Speaker 3: almost an exact situation like this, So, I mean, I'm

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Speaker 3: sure they've been over it and sometime things happened. I

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Speaker 3: thought that they kind of I think a bigger indictment

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Speaker 3: was just their their offense, Like they kind of just

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Speaker 3: were trying to run the clock out a bit and

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Speaker 3: they got a little too conservative, I think, but uh

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Speaker 3: Shire will be just fine.

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Speaker 4: And I agree on.

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Speaker 3: The technical I think Hurley was just he's a psycho

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Speaker 3: and he was doing hurly things. But the Airs was

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Speaker 3: also trying to tell him, like, hey, we're about to go.

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Speaker 3: Look at the clock. And then so he was actually

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Speaker 3: talking to him, and he like leaned in and then

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Speaker 3: to hear what he was saying. It was so loud,

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Speaker 3: and then he like kind of just was like, let's go.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, he can't call it technical there. That would

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Speaker 3: have been outrageous. All right, let's move on to these

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Speaker 3: final four games. We'll start with the first one between

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Speaker 3: Illinois and Yukon. It is the two verse three seed.

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Speaker 3: Illinois is down to a one and a half favored.

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Speaker 3: I think you've seen them as high as two and

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Speaker 3: a half total one thirty nine and a half. I

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Speaker 3: personally show a lot of value in Illinois here. I

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Speaker 3: mean I make them my role numbers make them under

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Speaker 3: just under a four point favorite. And that's like in

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Speaker 3: line with some of the other projections. I mean, you

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Speaker 3: can look at ken Palm is four, has Ametrics as

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Speaker 3: close to five, Torvik is three. And we have to

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Speaker 3: remember now the question is how much is the Hurley

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Speaker 3: tax in the tournament, which is like a real thing.

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Speaker 3: It's fourteen zero against the spread. They've won eighteen straight

220
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Speaker 3: games in the I think the Sweet sixteen or later.

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Speaker 3: As a program like that, there's the adjustments they make,

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Speaker 3: the championship pedigree. I mean, Carabran could become this. He's

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Speaker 3: not gonna catch Laightener, but he even come the second

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Speaker 3: most winning winning a tournament player of all time. So

225
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Speaker 3: what is that tax? And like, but I'm not shocked

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Speaker 3: that this line is a little lower than my projection.

227
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Speaker 3: Not shocked that Yukon is probably gonna take some money.

228
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Speaker 3: There's a lot of people that say this is Yukon

229
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Speaker 3: as a dog after what they just saw against Duke.

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Speaker 3: They also say, you're gonna hear a lot of people

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Speaker 3: say you can already beat Illinois earlier this year. To me,

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Speaker 3: that game means nothing. I mean, Petrovich had more minutes

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Speaker 3: than Woggler, Yukon was dealing with injuries like Jalen Stewart

234
00:12:18,480 --> 00:12:21,080
Speaker 3: was starting at the time. Mullins only played ten minutes.

235
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Speaker 3: Like that game is completely meaningless. It was in November.

236
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Speaker 3: But I do think that Illinois is a clearly superior team.

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Speaker 3: I mean, this is a team that is just like Arizona.

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Speaker 3: Michigan has won every game in the tournament by double digits.

239
00:12:36,320 --> 00:12:40,839
Speaker 3: They only lost one game since December. First that wasn't

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Speaker 3: in overtime or at the buzzer, and then all those

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Speaker 3: losses came against tournament teams, and that one exception was

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Speaker 3: Michigan one of the teams that's still alive. Whereas Yukon,

243
00:12:52,040 --> 00:12:54,199
Speaker 3: you have to remember, I mean they were they closed

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Speaker 3: closed the season seven and four. They had bad losses

245
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Speaker 3: to Marquette and Creton, two non turning teams, and it

246
00:13:02,000 --> 00:13:05,440
Speaker 3: hasn't been a very clean path to the final four.

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Speaker 3: They struggled with Furman in the opening round, they got

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Speaker 3: a shorthanded UCLA team, They almost blew a twenty point

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Speaker 3: lead to Michigan State, and they needed a miraculous nineteen

250
00:13:18,559 --> 00:13:22,680
Speaker 3: point comeback and half court shot to beat Duke, who

251
00:13:22,760 --> 00:13:25,920
Speaker 3: was just one pass away from eliminating them. So it

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Speaker 3: hasn't been all roses for Yukon. There are This isn't

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Speaker 3: an elite, elite Yukon team. You got to give credit

254
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Speaker 3: to Hurley, you got to give credit to all their players,

255
00:13:35,120 --> 00:13:38,040
Speaker 3: but this is you know, if you look back in

256
00:13:38,080 --> 00:13:42,040
Speaker 3: the history of teams that have won the tournament, Yukon

257
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Speaker 3: is ranked twenty eighth in offensive the just deficiency. Now,

258
00:13:46,160 --> 00:13:50,800
Speaker 3: it's funny. The only exceptions to the hey, you got

259
00:13:50,800 --> 00:13:54,040
Speaker 3: to be like a top ten offense. The only exceptions

260
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Speaker 3: are Yukon twice over the past twenty five years. So

261
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Speaker 3: maybe this is another exception, but I think is clearly

262
00:14:01,480 --> 00:14:02,320
Speaker 3: a step above.

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Speaker 1: Now.

264
00:14:03,800 --> 00:14:06,760
Speaker 3: When I look at this from a matchup perspective, I

265
00:14:07,240 --> 00:14:12,600
Speaker 3: think that Markovich Stoyakovic them getting to the rim. The

266
00:14:12,640 --> 00:14:15,480
Speaker 3: offensive rebounding prowess, Yukon is a bit vulnerable to second

267
00:14:15,520 --> 00:14:18,080
Speaker 3: chance opportunities. I think that can scramble the Yukon defense.

268
00:14:19,440 --> 00:14:23,120
Speaker 3: Illinois is an elite rim denial defense. Yukon is gonna

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00:14:23,160 --> 00:14:25,960
Speaker 3: have to hit shots against Illinois. I mean, you look

270
00:14:26,000 --> 00:14:28,560
Speaker 3: at Illinois losses this year. Teams have averaged about twelve

271
00:14:28,560 --> 00:14:31,480
Speaker 3: threes per game. Do you trust the Yukon shooters. Now,

272
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Speaker 3: maybe Mullins carries over that momentum from that shot against Duke,

273
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Speaker 3: But like I said, he's guy who's hitting seventeen percent

274
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Speaker 3: over his last fifty eight shots. Before that heave solo ball,

275
00:14:41,760 --> 00:14:44,720
Speaker 3: who knows where his head is at so I just

276
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Speaker 3: think Illinois has too many answers on the offensive end

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Speaker 3: of the floor. The other thing is Yukon very good

278
00:14:52,800 --> 00:14:57,160
Speaker 3: at limiting transition. Illinois doesn't care to second percentile transition offense,

279
00:14:57,280 --> 00:14:59,240
Speaker 3: very comfortable in the half court where their offense is

280
00:14:59,360 --> 00:15:02,640
Speaker 3: just super elite, can beat you in so many different ways.

281
00:15:02,680 --> 00:15:05,440
Speaker 3: Have bigs that can step out, have Woggler, have other

282
00:15:05,480 --> 00:15:09,520
Speaker 3: guys that can get into the paint. And I just

283
00:15:09,520 --> 00:15:11,800
Speaker 3: think that their offense is too good and Yukon won't

284
00:15:11,800 --> 00:15:12,240
Speaker 3: be able to.

285
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Speaker 4: Keep up here.

286
00:15:13,280 --> 00:15:15,400
Speaker 3: Tarris Reed will probably get his he's got out to

287
00:15:15,440 --> 00:15:18,240
Speaker 3: stay out of foul trouble. That's something to monitor, but

288
00:15:18,720 --> 00:15:21,280
Speaker 3: I think Illinois gets it done. I like the aligne

289
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Speaker 3: I hear Greg, do you agree or is it just

290
00:15:25,520 --> 00:15:26,160
Speaker 3: trust early?

291
00:15:27,520 --> 00:15:30,040
Speaker 5: I'm gonna agree, but it's a lean for me. It's

292
00:15:30,080 --> 00:15:33,640
Speaker 5: not official play right now. Although admittedly this might just

293
00:15:33,680 --> 00:15:36,240
Speaker 5: be a I'm staring at this too long moment and

294
00:15:36,320 --> 00:15:39,920
Speaker 5: I'm hearing voices that this is big ten bias within me,

295
00:15:40,480 --> 00:15:41,120
Speaker 5: Like I do.

296
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Speaker 2: Look at this.

297
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Speaker 5: I see all the things you just laid out as

298
00:15:43,360 --> 00:15:46,080
Speaker 5: an advantage for Illinois. I think they are definitively the

299
00:15:46,080 --> 00:15:50,800
Speaker 5: better team. I think this Yukon team is in some

300
00:15:50,920 --> 00:15:53,560
Speaker 5: ways fortunate to have gotten here. Obviously the last second

301
00:15:53,560 --> 00:15:56,120
Speaker 5: shot and the comeback, but you know, they blew a

302
00:15:56,160 --> 00:15:58,760
Speaker 5: nineteen point lead against Michigan State the game before because

303
00:15:58,760 --> 00:16:02,080
Speaker 5: their offense went completely dry and we're trailing with five

304
00:16:02,080 --> 00:16:05,080
Speaker 5: minutes left to go. In that game, the UCLA break

305
00:16:05,120 --> 00:16:06,600
Speaker 5: without Billidho, I think was big.

306
00:16:06,640 --> 00:16:09,560
Speaker 2: That game was tied late. Look, it's a small sample size,

307
00:16:09,560 --> 00:16:10,000
Speaker 2: but it's.

308
00:16:09,880 --> 00:16:12,680
Speaker 5: The same point that I made before Duke Yukon why

309
00:16:12,760 --> 00:16:15,280
Speaker 5: I liked Yukon money line in that spot. If you

310
00:16:15,320 --> 00:16:19,160
Speaker 5: filter out just to the NCAA tournament, Torvik has Yukon

311
00:16:19,200 --> 00:16:21,840
Speaker 5: as the fifteenth best team in the tournament. I mean,

312
00:16:21,840 --> 00:16:24,200
Speaker 5: a bunch of teams that have been eliminated have played

313
00:16:24,320 --> 00:16:28,440
Speaker 5: better efficiency profile wise in the tournament than Yukon. Arizona's one,

314
00:16:28,520 --> 00:16:31,240
Speaker 5: Illinois four, Michigan's five. In that same span, the best

315
00:16:31,280 --> 00:16:34,040
Speaker 5: teams are here except for Yukon. And it is the

316
00:16:34,120 --> 00:16:37,320
Speaker 5: Hurley experiment. It's the Hurly tax. He's an advantage. There

317
00:16:37,320 --> 00:16:41,080
Speaker 5: should be points factored in there, undeniably. So I think

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00:16:41,120 --> 00:16:44,120
Speaker 5: there's a mental hurdle for Underwood against Hurley to an

319
00:16:44,120 --> 00:16:46,800
Speaker 5: extent after that thirty to zero run in the Elite

320
00:16:46,800 --> 00:16:49,120
Speaker 5: eight a couple of years ago. But I don't think

321
00:16:49,120 --> 00:16:51,560
Speaker 5: it's enough when I'd look deeper into this matchup for

322
00:16:51,680 --> 00:16:54,640
Speaker 5: me to think Yukon is gonna win this game. I

323
00:16:54,680 --> 00:16:57,560
Speaker 5: think you have to make shots from outside to beat Illinois.

324
00:16:57,920 --> 00:17:00,440
Speaker 5: This is a defense that is gonna f force you

325
00:17:00,960 --> 00:17:06,040
Speaker 5: to take volume from outside over contested hands from seven

326
00:17:06,080 --> 00:17:07,840
Speaker 5: footers and six ten guys.

327
00:17:08,320 --> 00:17:09,800
Speaker 2: That's what they do, and they do it.

328
00:17:09,720 --> 00:17:12,919
Speaker 5: Really well, and in every tournament game so far they

329
00:17:12,960 --> 00:17:15,480
Speaker 5: have forced a dry spell, whether it was late from

330
00:17:15,520 --> 00:17:18,400
Speaker 5: Iowa or Houston, for really the entirety.

331
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Speaker 2: Of the game.

332
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Speaker 5: I don't know how you can look at Solo Ball,

333
00:17:21,240 --> 00:17:23,639
Speaker 5: who has been a disaster, and Brayln Mullins, who has

334
00:17:23,640 --> 00:17:26,960
Speaker 5: been streaky, and say that you're confident in Yukon's shooters

335
00:17:27,080 --> 00:17:29,520
Speaker 5: in that matchup right now, it's got to be a

336
00:17:29,600 --> 00:17:32,760
Speaker 5: terrorist Reid masterclass. And I think you're right, Stott, you

337
00:17:32,800 --> 00:17:36,439
Speaker 5: should throw out maybe ninety five percent of that first meeting.

338
00:17:37,040 --> 00:17:39,920
Speaker 5: Terris was injured, and this was one of the weird

339
00:17:39,960 --> 00:17:41,960
Speaker 5: games where he tried to play and then he sat

340
00:17:42,000 --> 00:17:45,639
Speaker 5: out a couple right after. But Terris did play, and

341
00:17:45,760 --> 00:17:48,600
Speaker 5: the Illinois frontcourt was at full strength, and he was

342
00:17:48,640 --> 00:17:50,520
Speaker 5: in foul trouble and finished with two and three and

343
00:17:50,560 --> 00:17:54,560
Speaker 5: fourteen minutes. I don't know if that's for sure something

344
00:17:54,560 --> 00:17:57,080
Speaker 5: we should throw away. You know, the Visages are going

345
00:17:57,160 --> 00:17:59,120
Speaker 5: to drag him out and make him guard the perimeter.

346
00:17:59,240 --> 00:18:01,760
Speaker 5: I don't think he's a really comfortable with that, and

347
00:18:01,880 --> 00:18:05,040
Speaker 5: inside finishing over seven feet is more difficult than it

348
00:18:05,160 --> 00:18:08,080
Speaker 5: sounds when you've got other athletes digging down from the perimeter.

349
00:18:08,280 --> 00:18:11,720
Speaker 5: So I don't love the matchup really for how Yukon

350
00:18:11,800 --> 00:18:14,480
Speaker 5: wants to win this game. You know it's gonna be slow.

351
00:18:14,840 --> 00:18:17,479
Speaker 5: It's kind of crazy looking at Illinois tournament run. I mean,

352
00:18:17,720 --> 00:18:20,480
Speaker 5: a fifty eight possession game against Houston, a fifty five

353
00:18:20,520 --> 00:18:23,120
Speaker 5: possession game against Iowa. Is this gonna be their third

354
00:18:23,160 --> 00:18:26,600
Speaker 5: straight game in the fifties. If so, I think it

355
00:18:26,880 --> 00:18:29,080
Speaker 5: could look a lot like the last two have looked.

356
00:18:29,080 --> 00:18:31,040
Speaker 5: And they had to earn the win late against Iowa.

357
00:18:31,119 --> 00:18:33,919
Speaker 5: But they are the better team here. And don't forget

358
00:18:33,920 --> 00:18:36,280
Speaker 5: this team was twenty and three, eleven to one and

359
00:18:36,320 --> 00:18:39,280
Speaker 5: big ten play when Kylin Boswell got hurt. That's when

360
00:18:39,320 --> 00:18:41,840
Speaker 5: their season flipped. And then they lost four of six,

361
00:18:41,920 --> 00:18:44,840
Speaker 5: and Sooyakovich went to the bench because he got hurt.

362
00:18:45,400 --> 00:18:48,800
Speaker 5: It was kind of the classic late Underwood regular season

363
00:18:48,840 --> 00:18:52,159
Speaker 5: conundrum that he always seems to run into. They've rebounded,

364
00:18:52,160 --> 00:18:54,240
Speaker 5: and this is full strength Illinois, the team we saw

365
00:18:54,280 --> 00:18:57,600
Speaker 5: from December through all of January that was just dominant

366
00:18:57,640 --> 00:19:00,399
Speaker 5: and every bit as good as the Arizona's, the Michigan's,

367
00:19:00,440 --> 00:19:02,800
Speaker 5: and the Dukes of the world. So it's a lean

368
00:19:02,920 --> 00:19:06,120
Speaker 5: for me out of respect for Hurley. I also lean

369
00:19:06,200 --> 00:19:08,240
Speaker 5: the under because I do think it's going to be

370
00:19:08,280 --> 00:19:10,640
Speaker 5: that slow, and you know, if the game script goes

371
00:19:10,640 --> 00:19:12,840
Speaker 5: the way I envision it, it'll be a Yukon dry

372
00:19:12,920 --> 00:19:14,840
Speaker 5: spell that creates the separation.

373
00:19:15,359 --> 00:19:16,560
Speaker 2: I think Illinois wins.

374
00:19:16,760 --> 00:19:19,639
Speaker 5: I think it probably goes under with Yukon struggling, and

375
00:19:19,800 --> 00:19:22,160
Speaker 5: just as a self hedge, I'll throw this play out

376
00:19:22,200 --> 00:19:25,560
Speaker 5: as well. I am looking at Alex Caraban player props,

377
00:19:25,600 --> 00:19:28,919
Speaker 5: specifically to make some threes in this game. He's plus

378
00:19:28,960 --> 00:19:32,040
Speaker 5: one point fifty to make three or more, he's four

379
00:19:32,119 --> 00:19:35,199
Speaker 5: hundred plus four hundred to make four or more, and

380
00:19:35,240 --> 00:19:38,080
Speaker 5: he's eleven to one to make five or more. I

381
00:19:38,200 --> 00:19:40,640
Speaker 5: like a little ladder there for Caraban who I think

382
00:19:40,720 --> 00:19:44,560
Speaker 5: is probably the one guy Yukon feels they can spring

383
00:19:44,600 --> 00:19:48,240
Speaker 5: open with all of the fancy Hurley off ball creation

384
00:19:48,400 --> 00:19:51,879
Speaker 5: sets they run. Mirkovich is gonna be his primary assignment

385
00:19:51,960 --> 00:19:55,240
Speaker 5: unless they get cute and move Stoyakovich down. But I

386
00:19:55,240 --> 00:19:58,119
Speaker 5: think you'll see Stoyakovic on a guard. Murk is a

387
00:19:58,160 --> 00:20:00,879
Speaker 5: great defender when he wants to be. He's also a

388
00:20:00,960 --> 00:20:03,760
Speaker 5: little bit slower, and I could see him getting lost

389
00:20:03,760 --> 00:20:06,200
Speaker 5: in a big moment a little bit with Caraban, whose

390
00:20:06,280 --> 00:20:09,080
Speaker 5: volume is up huge in this tournament as solo ball

391
00:20:09,119 --> 00:20:13,520
Speaker 5: and Mullins have slumped. Caravan has shot eight threes, eight threes,

392
00:20:13,600 --> 00:20:16,840
Speaker 5: six threes, and nine threes in the four tournament games.

393
00:20:17,040 --> 00:20:19,359
Speaker 5: He was really shooting three and five a lot at

394
00:20:19,400 --> 00:20:20,520
Speaker 5: the end of the Big East play.

395
00:20:21,000 --> 00:20:22,120
Speaker 2: I think he's gonna.

396
00:20:21,920 --> 00:20:24,800
Speaker 5: Be the guy they look to bomb against a defense

397
00:20:24,840 --> 00:20:27,879
Speaker 5: that makes you bomb from deep. And even if he

398
00:20:28,000 --> 00:20:30,240
Speaker 5: makes you know, three or four threes in this game,

399
00:20:30,400 --> 00:20:32,200
Speaker 5: I still think the rest of the game script can

400
00:20:32,200 --> 00:20:35,080
Speaker 5: go how we discussed. Illinois could still win and it

401
00:20:35,080 --> 00:20:38,160
Speaker 5: could still go under. But as a self hedge, I'm

402
00:20:38,160 --> 00:20:41,240
Speaker 5: going to back Caraban to get hot from outside. While

403
00:20:41,720 --> 00:20:43,440
Speaker 5: we'll see if I end up getting to the finish

404
00:20:43,480 --> 00:20:45,160
Speaker 5: line with Illinois before Saturday night.

405
00:20:46,280 --> 00:20:50,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think worth voting Illinois. Since mid February on

406
00:20:50,600 --> 00:20:53,320
Speaker 3: super high volume is shooting thirty one and a half

407
00:20:53,320 --> 00:20:55,400
Speaker 3: percent from three, like if this team ever gets red

408
00:20:55,440 --> 00:20:58,400
Speaker 3: hot from three. Now on the other side of the Quinn,

409
00:20:58,640 --> 00:21:02,879
Speaker 3: Connecticut Stans only shooting thirty percent from three. But I

410
00:21:03,040 --> 00:21:06,320
Speaker 3: trust the Illinois shooting more than the Yukon shooting, and

411
00:21:06,359 --> 00:21:08,399
Speaker 3: I also trust Illinois to win the shot value battle.

412
00:21:08,640 --> 00:21:11,480
Speaker 3: So in order for Yukon to overcome to overcome that

413
00:21:12,280 --> 00:21:17,080
Speaker 3: likely deficit, they're they're gonna have to shoot at a

414
00:21:17,119 --> 00:21:19,520
Speaker 3: high clip in my opinion, and I don't It could happen.

415
00:21:19,560 --> 00:21:23,240
Speaker 3: It's one game, but I don't necessarily I'm not necessarily

416
00:21:23,240 --> 00:21:24,480
Speaker 3: too fearful of that.

417
00:21:25,040 --> 00:21:25,200
Speaker 4: Now.

418
00:21:25,240 --> 00:21:29,000
Speaker 3: The one good thing for Yukon is Illinois doesn't force turnovers.

419
00:21:29,040 --> 00:21:31,359
Speaker 3: They're dead last in the country and turnovers have been

420
00:21:31,400 --> 00:21:34,080
Speaker 3: an issue at times for Yukon. But Illinois also never foul,

421
00:21:34,119 --> 00:21:36,320
Speaker 3: so there's not gonna be many free points here for Yukon.

422
00:21:36,400 --> 00:21:38,520
Speaker 3: Yukon is much more likely to get in foul trouble.

423
00:21:38,680 --> 00:21:41,359
Speaker 3: You mentioned Reid doing that in the first game and

424
00:21:42,119 --> 00:21:44,879
Speaker 3: Illinois can dominate the offensive class and they never turned

425
00:21:44,880 --> 00:21:48,760
Speaker 3: the ball over. I mean you and one of the

426
00:21:48,800 --> 00:21:51,879
Speaker 3: strengths of this Yukon defense this tournament hasn't always been

427
00:21:51,920 --> 00:21:53,640
Speaker 3: the case. This year, they have twenty nine steals through

428
00:21:53,680 --> 00:21:58,240
Speaker 3: four games. Well, I mean, Illinois one of the lowest

429
00:21:58,280 --> 00:22:00,280
Speaker 3: tournament rates in the country. They just navigate did a

430
00:22:00,280 --> 00:22:04,119
Speaker 3: bunch of defenses that forced turnovers beautifully. I mean, what

431
00:22:04,160 --> 00:22:08,760
Speaker 3: do they have for for turnovers against Houston? A few

432
00:22:08,760 --> 00:22:14,600
Speaker 3: more against BCU, but almost none against Penn. Iowill force

433
00:22:14,640 --> 00:22:18,480
Speaker 3: a lot of turnovers. They completely dominated the turnover game

434
00:22:18,520 --> 00:22:21,600
Speaker 3: in that one. So yeah, I think that there's there's

435
00:22:21,640 --> 00:22:25,399
Speaker 3: just too much offense for Illinois. But I do I

436
00:22:25,440 --> 00:22:27,639
Speaker 3: do respect early and that's that's the one thing that

437
00:22:27,760 --> 00:22:31,359
Speaker 3: hasn't amount. But I'm hunting for a cheap Illinois money

438
00:22:31,359 --> 00:22:34,560
Speaker 3: on here. I from a props perspective, it might be

439
00:22:34,600 --> 00:22:37,800
Speaker 3: tough for Wago to score year. They're gonna like, you

440
00:22:37,840 --> 00:22:39,720
Speaker 3: got to get to the rim against Yukon, you got

441
00:22:39,720 --> 00:22:42,000
Speaker 3: to kick it out, you have to finish at the rim.

442
00:22:42,280 --> 00:22:43,720
Speaker 3: So like, I think this could be either a bigger

443
00:22:44,359 --> 00:22:48,399
Speaker 3: Stoyakovich or Markovic game. I don't know who I prefer,

444
00:22:49,359 --> 00:22:51,600
Speaker 3: but that's who I'm looking at from a proper perspective.

445
00:22:51,640 --> 00:22:53,600
Speaker 4: I don't mind the caravan. Look Calgary's what are you

446
00:22:53,640 --> 00:22:54,080
Speaker 4: seeing here?

447
00:22:54,960 --> 00:22:57,159
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll keep this short because we're all reading from

448
00:22:57,200 --> 00:22:59,760
Speaker 1: the same hymnal here. I like Illinois might as want

449
00:22:59,760 --> 00:23:02,960
Speaker 1: to have mis two and a half at even money.

450
00:23:03,040 --> 00:23:04,960
Speaker 1: I just think in my estimation, they have too many

451
00:23:04,960 --> 00:23:08,240
Speaker 1: paths to victory, whereas Yukon has made double digit threes

452
00:23:08,440 --> 00:23:12,000
Speaker 1: once since February eighteenth, which means it's all on the

453
00:23:12,000 --> 00:23:16,520
Speaker 1: shoulders of Reed Junior and both Isovich's you know, or

454
00:23:16,640 --> 00:23:19,480
Speaker 1: ev switches or is it Winklevai? Like, what is the

455
00:23:19,520 --> 00:23:22,719
Speaker 1: situation here? When I'm going multiple They're both great out

456
00:23:22,760 --> 00:23:24,800
Speaker 1: as a plus defenders per Evan Miha, And when you

457
00:23:24,800 --> 00:23:27,760
Speaker 1: look at that first go around against the Huskies, Reid

458
00:23:27,880 --> 00:23:30,600
Speaker 1: was saddled with file trouble. Yes, he also went over

459
00:23:30,960 --> 00:23:33,320
Speaker 1: from the floor, so I think there's an opportunity for

460
00:23:33,359 --> 00:23:35,040
Speaker 1: them to throw bodies at him. And I just don't

461
00:23:35,080 --> 00:23:38,720
Speaker 1: see Yukon winning this game unless he gives them twenty

462
00:23:38,760 --> 00:23:41,359
Speaker 1: plus points, stays on the floor for thirty minutes, like

463
00:23:41,560 --> 00:23:43,480
Speaker 1: he needs to be impactful. And if we're talking about

464
00:23:43,480 --> 00:23:46,639
Speaker 1: the difference between that early season game in late November

465
00:23:46,720 --> 00:23:49,359
Speaker 1: to where we are now. Woggler wasn't you know, he

466
00:23:49,400 --> 00:23:51,080
Speaker 1: wasn't even on the floor for most of that game,

467
00:23:51,119 --> 00:23:53,440
Speaker 1: So yes, I think, you know, in terms of him

468
00:23:53,440 --> 00:23:55,680
Speaker 1: getting to the hoop, there's some things that Yukon can

469
00:23:55,680 --> 00:23:58,439
Speaker 1: do defensively, and I respect the hell out of their staff,

470
00:23:58,640 --> 00:23:59,760
Speaker 1: but he's going to bring a lot more to the

471
00:23:59,800 --> 00:24:02,720
Speaker 1: tape than they did in that first matchup, So I

472
00:24:02,760 --> 00:24:06,760
Speaker 1: don't I think there's it's difficult to squint and see

473
00:24:06,760 --> 00:24:09,400
Speaker 1: how this Yukon team that has struggled to shoot from

474
00:24:09,440 --> 00:24:11,399
Speaker 1: the perimeter is all of a sudden going to be

475
00:24:11,440 --> 00:24:14,440
Speaker 1: able to knock down shots consistently and play their best

476
00:24:14,480 --> 00:24:17,000
Speaker 1: basketball for a full forty minutes. Because they haven't really

477
00:24:17,040 --> 00:24:19,280
Speaker 1: done that for this entire tournament, as you alluded to

478
00:24:19,359 --> 00:24:21,679
Speaker 1: at the top, stuck. You know, they've either turned it

479
00:24:21,720 --> 00:24:24,399
Speaker 1: on and then coasted or struggled and then turned it

480
00:24:24,440 --> 00:24:27,120
Speaker 1: on late. You can't do that against this Illinois defense

481
00:24:27,119 --> 00:24:29,320
Speaker 1: that has just been ferocious. I mean, look what they

482
00:24:29,320 --> 00:24:32,960
Speaker 1: did against Houston Iowa. Iowa made seven two point shots

483
00:24:33,040 --> 00:24:35,480
Speaker 1: in the entire game. So their defense is just on

484
00:24:35,520 --> 00:24:38,520
Speaker 1: a different plane at this point in the season.

485
00:24:38,600 --> 00:24:39,440
Speaker 4: So I think.

486
00:24:39,320 --> 00:24:41,200
Speaker 1: Illinois is the right side of this. I think there's

487
00:24:41,240 --> 00:24:44,720
Speaker 1: also a bit of the human nature elements of we

488
00:24:44,840 --> 00:24:46,760
Speaker 1: just won one of the most classic games of all time.

489
00:24:46,800 --> 00:24:48,919
Speaker 1: We know that we stole that from Duke. How do

490
00:24:48,960 --> 00:24:52,639
Speaker 1: they rev back up emotionally and hit the ground running,

491
00:24:52,680 --> 00:24:56,440
Speaker 1: Because if they dig themselves five or ten point hole

492
00:24:56,600 --> 00:24:59,359
Speaker 1: against this Illinois team with the way they're playing defensively,

493
00:24:59,680 --> 00:25:02,679
Speaker 1: that's very that's a very difficult path to victory in

494
00:25:02,720 --> 00:25:04,760
Speaker 1: my opinion. Whereas you know, Duke kind of went into

495
00:25:04,760 --> 00:25:07,199
Speaker 1: a shell. They got too conservative. Also, when you think

496
00:25:07,200 --> 00:25:10,000
Speaker 1: about game flow, like Duke's offense was get the ball

497
00:25:10,119 --> 00:25:13,159
Speaker 1: to Cam Boozer, He's gonna pound it ten times, like

498
00:25:13,200 --> 00:25:15,640
Speaker 1: he's dribbling harder than anyone's ever dribbled with his back

499
00:25:15,680 --> 00:25:18,600
Speaker 1: to the basket. The ball was not swinging around. Evans

500
00:25:18,720 --> 00:25:21,239
Speaker 1: was not making shots in the second half. Illinois has

501
00:25:21,320 --> 00:25:23,600
Speaker 1: shooters for days. They got people coming off the bench

502
00:25:23,680 --> 00:25:25,240
Speaker 1: who would be the best shooter if they were on

503
00:25:25,280 --> 00:25:28,320
Speaker 1: that Duke team. So I view this as Illinois or

504
00:25:28,359 --> 00:25:29,119
Speaker 1: nothing in this spot.

505
00:25:29,880 --> 00:25:32,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, Duke wasn't fully healthy either, and they

506
00:25:32,080 --> 00:25:37,000
Speaker 3: stayed an absolutely lead, and Greg I will say, look,

507
00:25:37,000 --> 00:25:38,919
Speaker 3: a lot of the talks to me about Hurly against

508
00:25:38,920 --> 00:25:40,520
Speaker 3: the spread. Mar I will say, I'm one to oh

509
00:25:40,640 --> 00:25:44,560
Speaker 3: fading early in the tournament this year? Hell yeah, I

510
00:25:44,560 --> 00:25:45,320
Speaker 3: did Bette Furman.

511
00:25:45,840 --> 00:25:48,440
Speaker 4: So I'm hesitantly going back to the well.

512
00:25:48,680 --> 00:25:57,080
Speaker 3: But are we disrespecting the like Obviously on a just

513
00:25:57,160 --> 00:26:02,320
Speaker 3: in a vacuum, Hurley versus Underwood in a tournament game

514
00:26:02,440 --> 00:26:06,840
Speaker 3: is an advantage for Yukon, But are we also just

515
00:26:06,920 --> 00:26:12,639
Speaker 3: by are we glossing over some of the bulk on

516
00:26:12,800 --> 00:26:16,000
Speaker 3: that Illinois staff and some of their assistants and game

517
00:26:16,040 --> 00:26:16,840
Speaker 3: planning ability?

518
00:26:18,080 --> 00:26:18,600
Speaker 2: I think so.

519
00:26:18,840 --> 00:26:22,440
Speaker 5: I mean, Tyler Underwood has arguably been the breakout star

520
00:26:22,720 --> 00:26:25,239
Speaker 5: of any coaching staff in the sport this year, and

521
00:26:25,520 --> 00:26:28,280
Speaker 5: you know he dodged nepotism allegations for four or five

522
00:26:28,359 --> 00:26:31,200
Speaker 5: years now. I think every NBA staff in America would

523
00:26:31,200 --> 00:26:32,440
Speaker 5: love to hire this guy.

524
00:26:32,359 --> 00:26:33,760
Speaker 2: And have him run their offense.

525
00:26:34,440 --> 00:26:37,080
Speaker 5: The thing that people underestimate though, whether you want to

526
00:26:37,080 --> 00:26:39,640
Speaker 5: give it to the staff as credit or just these players.

527
00:26:40,200 --> 00:26:43,680
Speaker 5: They are so high IQ and they are so skilled,

528
00:26:43,880 --> 00:26:47,760
Speaker 5: and it's mismatch hunting. But when you have five guys

529
00:26:47,800 --> 00:26:50,040
Speaker 5: that can pass at the level this team can't. Really

530
00:26:50,040 --> 00:26:52,159
Speaker 5: The only guy on the floor of the cant is Stoyakovich,

531
00:26:52,560 --> 00:26:55,240
Speaker 5: But you leave him on an island, he'll score over anybody.

532
00:26:56,000 --> 00:27:00,320
Speaker 5: It just their problem solvers more than problem creators. And

533
00:27:00,760 --> 00:27:02,840
Speaker 5: I think that sort of in the gates any inherent

534
00:27:03,160 --> 00:27:07,280
Speaker 5: you know, coaching adjustment concerns you've had historically with Brad Underwood.

535
00:27:07,560 --> 00:27:09,720
Speaker 5: It's like that team with Tarren Shannon. They wanted to

536
00:27:09,760 --> 00:27:12,520
Speaker 5: do one thing, one thing only, and their game plan

537
00:27:12,600 --> 00:27:14,360
Speaker 5: was get Clinging out of the game. It didn't work

538
00:27:14,400 --> 00:27:17,760
Speaker 5: and it fell on his face in embarrassing fashion. This

539
00:27:17,840 --> 00:27:20,800
Speaker 5: year's team doesn't come into games with one plan. They

540
00:27:20,800 --> 00:27:23,280
Speaker 5: figure it out on the fly, and they're just so

541
00:27:23,400 --> 00:27:26,119
Speaker 5: skilled they can solve it. So look, they're bigger. I

542
00:27:26,119 --> 00:27:30,400
Speaker 5: think they're more talented. I have a hard time identifying

543
00:27:30,440 --> 00:27:32,520
Speaker 5: what it is Yukon's going to be able to exploit

544
00:27:32,560 --> 00:27:33,520
Speaker 5: for forty minutes here.

545
00:27:34,760 --> 00:27:36,760
Speaker 3: By the way, I think I talked myself while you

546
00:27:36,760 --> 00:27:38,280
Speaker 3: guys are all talking about this game. Talking to myself,

547
00:27:38,320 --> 00:27:40,399
Speaker 3: I think I'm gonna go maybe I'll throw this in

548
00:27:40,440 --> 00:27:45,639
Speaker 3: the same game parlay or something. But Markovich over assist

549
00:27:45,760 --> 00:27:47,840
Speaker 3: and stock the jeover points.

550
00:27:48,280 --> 00:27:48,679
Speaker 2: I like that.

551
00:27:49,800 --> 00:27:52,439
Speaker 3: I think that's the way that I might play this

552
00:27:52,480 --> 00:27:55,440
Speaker 3: from a proper perspective. All Right, it's time to get

553
00:27:55,560 --> 00:27:59,879
Speaker 3: to the Marqui matchup, one of the games of this

554
00:28:00,080 --> 00:28:04,520
Speaker 3: century in Michigan and Arizona. The two to one seeds

555
00:28:04,560 --> 00:28:06,800
Speaker 3: the top two teams in the country in most people's eyes.

556
00:28:06,800 --> 00:28:09,840
Speaker 3: But before we do, quick word for myself on Robinhood.

557
00:28:09,920 --> 00:28:14,040
Speaker 3: What if sports were traded like markets? Now you can

558
00:28:14,040 --> 00:28:17,040
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559
00:28:17,160 --> 00:28:21,640
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560
00:28:21,680 --> 00:28:25,320
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561
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Speaker 3: sell your positions live all game long, use your sports

562
00:28:29,040 --> 00:28:32,760
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563
00:28:32,840 --> 00:28:37,040
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564
00:28:37,320 --> 00:28:39,640
Speaker 3: you can move with it. I always knew the game,

565
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Speaker 3: but never had a dynamic way to apply that knowledge.

566
00:28:42,520 --> 00:28:45,720
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567
00:28:45,800 --> 00:28:49,600
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568
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569
00:28:54,360 --> 00:28:58,000
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570
00:28:58,080 --> 00:29:03,240
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571
00:29:03,280 --> 00:29:07,440
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572
00:29:07,840 --> 00:29:11,880
Speaker 3: a registered Futures Commission merchant and swamp firm. All right,

573
00:29:11,920 --> 00:29:16,840
Speaker 3: so let's talk Michigan Arizona Wards. Can't really do this

574
00:29:16,880 --> 00:29:18,960
Speaker 3: game justice. By the way, this is worth trending for

575
00:29:19,000 --> 00:29:22,560
Speaker 3: the first for the first time in tournament history, for

576
00:29:22,640 --> 00:29:25,000
Speaker 3: the two final four games to have a spread of

577
00:29:25,280 --> 00:29:28,960
Speaker 3: under two. Both are sitting at one and a half

578
00:29:29,080 --> 00:29:32,480
Speaker 3: right now. Michigan's a one and a half point favorite.

579
00:29:32,640 --> 00:29:39,000
Speaker 3: Total one fifty seven and a half. Greg, I know

580
00:29:39,040 --> 00:29:42,280
Speaker 3: you're a Michigan guy. It's game of Tip eight forty

581
00:29:42,360 --> 00:29:44,000
Speaker 3: nine Eastern. You're going to Indy?

582
00:29:44,560 --> 00:29:46,160
Speaker 2: Yep, I'll be there, can't wait.

583
00:29:46,880 --> 00:29:47,280
Speaker 1: I might go.

584
00:29:47,440 --> 00:29:47,960
Speaker 4: I might just.

585
00:29:50,360 --> 00:29:52,160
Speaker 3: On a whim drive. It's like a three hour drive.

586
00:29:52,200 --> 00:29:54,800
Speaker 3: I might drive up on Saturday, but I'm not sure.

587
00:29:55,320 --> 00:29:57,920
Speaker 3: What are your plans for the what's your itinerary?

588
00:29:58,240 --> 00:30:01,800
Speaker 5: We got some shows in a bar Saturday and Sunday.

589
00:30:01,840 --> 00:30:04,400
Speaker 5: If you do pull up, stuck drinks on me? Which

590
00:30:04,400 --> 00:30:07,480
Speaker 5: bar we're doing? O'Reilly's on Sunday?

591
00:30:07,520 --> 00:30:08,800
Speaker 2: Still TVD on Saturday?

592
00:30:09,240 --> 00:30:11,440
Speaker 4: Okay, all right, I'll be in touch with I. Come up.

593
00:30:11,920 --> 00:30:12,800
Speaker 4: What are you seeing here?

594
00:30:13,520 --> 00:30:14,440
Speaker 2: I can't get a read.

595
00:30:14,920 --> 00:30:18,080
Speaker 5: And again it's like me staring myself in the mirror.

596
00:30:18,280 --> 00:30:20,200
Speaker 5: I am I hearing the big ten voices or not

597
00:30:20,320 --> 00:30:23,959
Speaker 5: here boys. I've said Arizona's the best team in the sport.

598
00:30:24,040 --> 00:30:24,680
Speaker 2: I think they are.

599
00:30:25,040 --> 00:30:27,440
Speaker 5: I mean, I think they can match everything Michigan does,

600
00:30:27,480 --> 00:30:32,560
Speaker 5: but with more composure, more poise, less variation game to game.

601
00:30:33,440 --> 00:30:34,760
Speaker 2: I do think that their best.

602
00:30:34,800 --> 00:30:37,840
Speaker 5: Michigan may have the slightly higher ceiling, but Arizona's floor

603
00:30:37,920 --> 00:30:40,440
Speaker 5: is infinitely higher than Michigan's floor. And that's got to

604
00:30:40,520 --> 00:30:43,520
Speaker 5: matter when you feel that these two teams are evenly matched.

605
00:30:44,080 --> 00:30:46,120
Speaker 5: The thing that I keep coming back to that's preventing

606
00:30:46,120 --> 00:30:50,840
Speaker 5: me from, you know, just believing it's Arizona. I do

607
00:30:50,920 --> 00:30:54,560
Speaker 5: think that Michigan's gonna have some inherent math advantage here,

608
00:30:54,920 --> 00:30:57,960
Speaker 5: just off of three point volume alone. And I understand

609
00:30:57,960 --> 00:31:00,800
Speaker 5: Arizona can make shots from outside. It's not that they

610
00:31:00,840 --> 00:31:03,479
Speaker 5: can't shoot, That's not why they don't go there. But

611
00:31:03,720 --> 00:31:05,880
Speaker 5: you know, if this game truly plays out as a

612
00:31:05,880 --> 00:31:09,960
Speaker 5: blood bath inside, where both teams are meeting more resistance

613
00:31:10,040 --> 00:31:12,680
Speaker 5: in the paint than they have all season, to me,

614
00:31:12,800 --> 00:31:16,760
Speaker 5: the team that is more comfortable playmaking from the perimeter

615
00:31:17,120 --> 00:31:20,600
Speaker 5: and generating open shots from outside is probably the team

616
00:31:20,640 --> 00:31:23,520
Speaker 5: with the advantage, and I think Michigan's the significantly better

617
00:31:23,560 --> 00:31:26,680
Speaker 5: passing team. I think the significantly more comfortable team with

618
00:31:26,760 --> 00:31:30,680
Speaker 5: high volume from three. So you know, in that sense,

619
00:31:30,960 --> 00:31:34,080
Speaker 5: I sort of expect Michigan to be more comfortable in

620
00:31:34,120 --> 00:31:37,120
Speaker 5: a very entertaining, up tempo game. The problem for me

621
00:31:37,400 --> 00:31:40,360
Speaker 5: is that Zona probably balances it out in other ways.

622
00:31:40,440 --> 00:31:43,560
Speaker 5: They should have some advantage on the glass. They're the

623
00:31:43,560 --> 00:31:45,800
Speaker 5: better rebounding team. I think they're going to win the

624
00:31:45,840 --> 00:31:49,560
Speaker 5: turnover margin almost inherently so, and you know, how this

625
00:31:49,640 --> 00:31:52,160
Speaker 5: game is officiated is going to be so critical because

626
00:31:52,560 --> 00:31:56,800
Speaker 5: Arizona needs and always thrives it getting to the line.

627
00:31:57,240 --> 00:32:00,160
Speaker 5: Michigan's pretty good at avoiding fouls for as physical as

628
00:32:00,200 --> 00:32:02,800
Speaker 5: they are. I mean, if you could guarantee me that

629
00:32:03,080 --> 00:32:06,280
Speaker 5: there's no foul trouble on either side to meet, Michigan

630
00:32:06,280 --> 00:32:08,680
Speaker 5: has dodged one of the bigger bullets that Arizona has

631
00:32:08,680 --> 00:32:11,560
Speaker 5: in the holster here, So you know, I just think

632
00:32:11,560 --> 00:32:13,360
Speaker 5: it's gonna be a slugfest.

633
00:32:15,320 --> 00:32:17,960
Speaker 2: My gut really is telling me that, you.

634
00:32:17,880 --> 00:32:21,320
Speaker 5: Know, if it is as hotly contested as I anticipate,

635
00:32:21,320 --> 00:32:25,840
Speaker 5: it to be Michigan may fare pretty well because I've

636
00:32:25,960 --> 00:32:28,160
Speaker 5: long held the belief this year you have to do

637
00:32:28,240 --> 00:32:31,040
Speaker 5: one of two things to really frustrate Michigan and make

638
00:32:31,040 --> 00:32:31,920
Speaker 5: them uncomfortable.

639
00:32:32,320 --> 00:32:33,200
Speaker 2: Either grind the.

640
00:32:33,120 --> 00:32:36,280
Speaker 5: Game to a halt how Duke did and how Purdue

641
00:32:36,280 --> 00:32:39,600
Speaker 5: did in the Big Ten Tournament championship, or go five

642
00:32:39,680 --> 00:32:43,120
Speaker 5: out and bomb them from three and exploit Mara and

643
00:32:43,960 --> 00:32:46,680
Speaker 5: Arizona is not going to do either. This game is

644
00:32:46,720 --> 00:32:48,800
Speaker 5: going to be played as fast as Michigan wants it

645
00:32:48,840 --> 00:32:52,080
Speaker 5: to be, and it's not going to be a game

646
00:32:52,120 --> 00:32:55,440
Speaker 5: where Mara can't play. So it's just going to be

647
00:32:55,440 --> 00:32:59,240
Speaker 5: best on best. Part of me wonders if you know

648
00:32:59,360 --> 00:33:02,040
Speaker 5: my belief that Michigan's best is a little better is

649
00:33:02,040 --> 00:33:03,959
Speaker 5: going to have me regret not playing it. But I

650
00:33:03,960 --> 00:33:06,680
Speaker 5: have too much respect for this this Tommy Lloyd led group.

651
00:33:07,080 --> 00:33:09,360
Speaker 2: It's going to be a stay away for me. The

652
00:33:09,440 --> 00:33:11,040
Speaker 2: one thing I will be playing.

653
00:33:11,200 --> 00:33:14,000
Speaker 5: In terms of sides on the game, I like Michigan's

654
00:33:14,000 --> 00:33:17,200
Speaker 5: team total over at seventy nine and a half. I've

655
00:33:17,320 --> 00:33:20,320
Speaker 5: talked about this multiple times this tournament, but I think

656
00:33:20,360 --> 00:33:22,080
Speaker 5: they've been a little bit low in general.

657
00:33:22,440 --> 00:33:23,680
Speaker 2: Tempo's gonna get us here.

658
00:33:23,760 --> 00:33:25,880
Speaker 5: This should be one of the most fast up, up

659
00:33:25,880 --> 00:33:28,800
Speaker 5: and down games of the year. Since the Players era started,

660
00:33:28,880 --> 00:33:31,160
Speaker 5: Michigan has scored eighty nine or more points in every

661
00:33:31,200 --> 00:33:33,640
Speaker 5: single game. They've scored ninety or more in every single

662
00:33:33,680 --> 00:33:34,400
Speaker 5: tournament game.

663
00:33:34,680 --> 00:33:35,240
Speaker 2: And I get it.

664
00:33:35,320 --> 00:33:38,600
Speaker 5: No defense comes anywhere close to what Arizona's is. But

665
00:33:38,680 --> 00:33:40,560
Speaker 5: I do think this Michigan team is going to be

666
00:33:40,560 --> 00:33:44,320
Speaker 5: comfortable in this matchup, and it even you know, could

667
00:33:44,360 --> 00:33:46,120
Speaker 5: get there with fouls late if needed.

668
00:33:46,480 --> 00:33:47,800
Speaker 2: I'm playing one cute.

669
00:33:47,560 --> 00:33:50,120
Speaker 5: Prop too, you know, in the event that I think

670
00:33:50,160 --> 00:33:52,720
Speaker 5: this is a classic, I think both teams could start

671
00:33:52,720 --> 00:33:54,320
Speaker 5: out with a bang. I think we could see three

672
00:33:54,400 --> 00:33:56,640
Speaker 5: or four possessions in the first minute. With how fast

673
00:33:56,680 --> 00:33:59,400
Speaker 5: these teams want to play, I like both teams to

674
00:33:59,440 --> 00:34:02,040
Speaker 5: score in the first minute plus two forty. I don't

675
00:34:02,040 --> 00:34:04,240
Speaker 5: think there's gonna be much feeling out process. I think

676
00:34:04,240 --> 00:34:06,720
Speaker 5: it's gonna be throwing punches left and right from the

677
00:34:06,760 --> 00:34:09,200
Speaker 5: moment this ball tip. So those are the only two

678
00:34:09,200 --> 00:34:10,880
Speaker 5: plays for me, and then I'm gonna sit back and

679
00:34:10,920 --> 00:34:14,160
Speaker 5: hope it's one of the best games in tournament history.

680
00:34:14,239 --> 00:34:17,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, so I bet Arizona plus one and a half.

681
00:34:17,320 --> 00:34:20,960
Speaker 3: I think it'll be a classic game. I here's why

682
00:34:21,000 --> 00:34:24,600
Speaker 3: I bet Arizona though, and I might look to bet

683
00:34:24,600 --> 00:34:27,520
Speaker 3: Michigan live. I mean they they have the propensity to

684
00:34:28,239 --> 00:34:32,279
Speaker 3: get down early. We've seen it many times this year.

685
00:34:33,600 --> 00:34:35,920
Speaker 3: But number one, my numbers make Arizona's slight favorite. I

686
00:34:35,920 --> 00:34:37,319
Speaker 3: do think they're the best team in the country. Now

687
00:34:37,360 --> 00:34:40,520
Speaker 3: I know why other projections have Michigan is the favorite,

688
00:34:40,560 --> 00:34:42,640
Speaker 3: like I think Kasimtrocism is a two point favorite, maybe

689
00:34:42,719 --> 00:34:47,680
Speaker 3: Kim bomb one. And that's because their numbers are gonna

690
00:34:47,680 --> 00:34:50,279
Speaker 3: be juiced to the gills as a result of some

691
00:34:50,360 --> 00:34:53,919
Speaker 3: of the beatings they've put on some teams, and they

692
00:34:54,360 --> 00:34:57,439
Speaker 3: serve Michigan has the higher ceiling. Michigan has the highest

693
00:34:57,440 --> 00:35:00,160
Speaker 3: ceiling in the country, and part of that is their

694
00:35:00,160 --> 00:35:03,759
Speaker 3: three point rate. Right that Arizona's third has the third

695
00:35:03,800 --> 00:35:07,160
Speaker 3: lowest three point rate in the country. Tarleton State and

696
00:35:07,200 --> 00:35:08,879
Speaker 3: Texas State are the only teams of the lower three

697
00:35:08,880 --> 00:35:13,440
Speaker 3: point rate. If Michigan is hitting their threes, they're at

698
00:35:13,440 --> 00:35:15,680
Speaker 3: a high clip, and they've hit forty five percent in

699
00:35:15,680 --> 00:35:19,480
Speaker 3: the tournament. If they continue that rate, they're going to

700
00:35:19,960 --> 00:35:25,160
Speaker 3: cut down the nets. But I don't necessarily think that's going.

701
00:35:25,080 --> 00:35:25,640
Speaker 4: To be the case.

702
00:35:25,760 --> 00:35:29,920
Speaker 3: Here's why. And if they are off, what that means

703
00:35:30,000 --> 00:35:33,200
Speaker 3: is that's so if they have a bad shooting day

704
00:35:33,239 --> 00:35:35,239
Speaker 3: from the perimeter, that's one of their advantages. Greg you

705
00:35:35,320 --> 00:35:37,799
Speaker 3: mentioned with the math that's going to lead to some

706
00:35:37,840 --> 00:35:41,000
Speaker 3: long misses and for Arizona to get out in transition.

707
00:35:41,800 --> 00:35:45,440
Speaker 3: And I think that the Michigan transition d might be

708
00:35:45,480 --> 00:35:49,239
Speaker 3: a tad overrated as far as limiting chances. So if

709
00:35:49,239 --> 00:35:53,440
Speaker 3: you look, both of these teams great out elite in transition, defense, limiting,

710
00:35:54,239 --> 00:35:59,560
Speaker 3: and efficiency. But Michigan played so many teams that don't

711
00:35:59,600 --> 00:36:02,280
Speaker 3: get out in transition. It's part of the Big Ten schedule.

712
00:36:02,600 --> 00:36:09,239
Speaker 3: Their median opponent transition frequency percentile was thirty third this year.

713
00:36:10,480 --> 00:36:15,040
Speaker 3: Arizona's was sixty seventh. Their opponents, so you're talking, you know,

714
00:36:15,120 --> 00:36:18,920
Speaker 3: almost double Arizona and teams that get out in transition

715
00:36:18,960 --> 00:36:21,439
Speaker 3: in the top quartile in the country. Arizona faced two

716
00:36:21,480 --> 00:36:25,080
Speaker 3: times as many than Michigan. Michigan the only team in

717
00:36:25,120 --> 00:36:27,279
Speaker 3: the Big Ten that's like elite in transition. It wants

718
00:36:27,280 --> 00:36:30,040
Speaker 3: to run that Michigan will plays Michigan State, and Michigan

719
00:36:30,040 --> 00:36:32,520
Speaker 3: State kind of cooked them in transition both times. They

720
00:36:32,520 --> 00:36:34,839
Speaker 3: scored one point one to three to three and one

721
00:36:34,920 --> 00:36:38,120
Speaker 3: point I think four points POSSESSI, which would have been

722
00:36:38,200 --> 00:36:41,080
Speaker 3: like three hundredth and dead last in the country from

723
00:36:41,120 --> 00:36:45,680
Speaker 3: a defensive perspective from Michigan. Meanwhile, Arizona's transition D is

724
00:36:45,719 --> 00:36:50,480
Speaker 3: super elite. They just shut down super transition reliant offenses

725
00:36:50,520 --> 00:36:56,279
Speaker 3: in this tournament Arkansas, Utah State, Long Island, and then

726
00:36:56,400 --> 00:36:58,720
Speaker 3: like they played so many during the Big twelve season.

727
00:36:58,800 --> 00:37:01,400
Speaker 3: Now Michigan's on a different level. But part of what

728
00:37:01,480 --> 00:37:05,680
Speaker 3: makes the Arizona transition D I think so well connected

729
00:37:06,360 --> 00:37:11,120
Speaker 3: and just hard to beat is because they don't shoot

730
00:37:11,160 --> 00:37:13,520
Speaker 3: a ton of threes, right because there's not going to

731
00:37:13,560 --> 00:37:15,239
Speaker 3: be a ton of long redounds. They know where they're at,

732
00:37:15,239 --> 00:37:16,520
Speaker 3: they know how to get back. There's not a lot

733
00:37:16,560 --> 00:37:19,200
Speaker 3: of guys out of position. What does that mean? I

734
00:37:19,200 --> 00:37:21,040
Speaker 3: think that Arizona might be able to get a few

735
00:37:21,040 --> 00:37:25,879
Speaker 3: more easy buckets in transition than Michigan, and Michigan gets

736
00:37:25,920 --> 00:37:29,440
Speaker 3: so many good looks from three in transition like that,

737
00:37:29,480 --> 00:37:32,120
Speaker 3: they are so deadly there when Michigan's out in transition

738
00:37:32,480 --> 00:37:35,960
Speaker 3: and scoring, they are hard to beat. Additionally, I mentioned

739
00:37:35,960 --> 00:37:39,920
Speaker 3: Michigan shooting. They're shooting forty five percent from three in

740
00:37:40,000 --> 00:37:42,279
Speaker 3: the tournament. They're a very good three point shooting team.

741
00:37:42,400 --> 00:37:46,200
Speaker 3: But I wouldn't consider them like elite of an an elite.

742
00:37:45,960 --> 00:37:47,399
Speaker 4: Elite shooting team.

743
00:37:47,760 --> 00:37:49,560
Speaker 3: They can have elite shooting nights, and one of the

744
00:37:49,560 --> 00:37:53,399
Speaker 3: reasons is because you have to help and they get

745
00:37:53,480 --> 00:37:55,000
Speaker 3: so many open looks.

746
00:37:55,360 --> 00:37:56,640
Speaker 4: I mean, you look on this year.

747
00:37:57,640 --> 00:38:03,359
Speaker 3: For this season, they rank in the ninety six percentile

748
00:38:03,360 --> 00:38:06,920
Speaker 3: and catch and shoot jumper frequency it's about thirty six

749
00:38:06,960 --> 00:38:09,480
Speaker 3: percent of their total field goal attempts, and they're the

750
00:38:09,640 --> 00:38:13,600
Speaker 3: ninety third percentile efficiency. So catch and shoot jumpers they're

751
00:38:13,600 --> 00:38:15,520
Speaker 3: almost they take one of the highest rates in the

752
00:38:15,520 --> 00:38:17,919
Speaker 3: country and they're in the ninety third percentile efficiency wise.

753
00:38:19,080 --> 00:38:22,200
Speaker 3: And when those jumpers are open, which they often are,

754
00:38:23,680 --> 00:38:26,680
Speaker 3: ninety percentile. On open catch and shoot jumpers, they score

755
00:38:26,719 --> 00:38:28,880
Speaker 3: one point three to five points per possession, which is

756
00:38:28,960 --> 00:38:32,560
Speaker 3: best in the country. But when those looks are contested,

757
00:38:33,760 --> 00:38:36,640
Speaker 3: that number falls off a cliff zero point nine three

758
00:38:36,640 --> 00:38:39,040
Speaker 3: points per posession, which is the thirty eighth percentile. Well

759
00:38:39,200 --> 00:38:43,759
Speaker 3: here comes Arizona. Well oiled drop coverage. They rank ninth

760
00:38:43,760 --> 00:38:45,960
Speaker 3: in the country in limiting catch and shoots, and when

761
00:38:45,960 --> 00:38:50,040
Speaker 3: they're guarded they rank in the ninety ninth percentile, so

762
00:38:50,160 --> 00:38:51,839
Speaker 3: I don't think Arizona has to help here. I think

763
00:38:51,840 --> 00:38:54,520
Speaker 3: there's just gonna be a bloody battle in the post

764
00:38:55,200 --> 00:38:58,439
Speaker 3: where both teams wash each other out. We'll see who

765
00:38:58,440 --> 00:39:00,759
Speaker 3: can avoid foul trouble. Greg you mentioned that. I think

766
00:39:00,800 --> 00:39:02,719
Speaker 3: that's a big storyline here. I hope they just let

767
00:39:02,760 --> 00:39:06,840
Speaker 3: both teams play. But I think Arizona can battle them inside.

768
00:39:07,320 --> 00:39:12,040
Speaker 3: They can cover their shooters. And what does that mean. Well,

769
00:39:12,640 --> 00:39:14,480
Speaker 3: I think it's gonna come down to like who can

770
00:39:14,520 --> 00:39:16,520
Speaker 3: make and I think it's gonna be close throughout, like

771
00:39:16,560 --> 00:39:18,920
Speaker 3: one another. One of Michigan's advantages is they go in

772
00:39:18,960 --> 00:39:23,000
Speaker 3: these huge runs, but Arizona is so difficult to.

773
00:39:22,920 --> 00:39:23,720
Speaker 4: Go on runs against.

774
00:39:23,719 --> 00:39:26,040
Speaker 3: They allowed the fewest kill shots of any team in

775
00:39:26,040 --> 00:39:30,160
Speaker 3: the country this year. They played zero garbage time possessions

776
00:39:30,160 --> 00:39:33,319
Speaker 3: in a loss this year, zero fewest, and they were

777
00:39:33,320 --> 00:39:36,239
Speaker 3: in every game they lost in overtime. The text a

778
00:39:36,280 --> 00:39:39,200
Speaker 3: fully healthy Texas Tech team. And they lost at Kansas

779
00:39:39,239 --> 00:39:41,680
Speaker 3: on Big Monday, which doesn't even county. I mean, people know,

780
00:39:42,080 --> 00:39:44,279
Speaker 3: no one's done that in twenty five years, and they

781
00:39:44,320 --> 00:39:46,000
Speaker 3: led by double digits in the second half.

782
00:39:45,800 --> 00:39:46,320
Speaker 4: Of that game.

783
00:39:47,120 --> 00:39:49,960
Speaker 3: It's really hard to extend out on Arizona because they

784
00:39:50,000 --> 00:39:51,880
Speaker 3: have so few weaknesses, so many ways to beat you.

785
00:39:51,920 --> 00:39:53,960
Speaker 3: Their execution is so good, they're so good from two,

786
00:39:53,960 --> 00:39:57,640
Speaker 3: they're so good on the glass. So if this comes

787
00:39:57,640 --> 00:39:59,560
Speaker 3: down to like, who can make tougher shots from the

788
00:39:59,600 --> 00:40:03,640
Speaker 3: mid range, because both of these defenses allow mid range

789
00:40:03,719 --> 00:40:05,719
Speaker 3: jumpers as you would expect with all their size at

790
00:40:05,760 --> 00:40:08,160
Speaker 3: the rim and their ability to defend the perimeter at

791
00:40:08,719 --> 00:40:12,040
Speaker 3: a top fifteen rate or bottom fifteen, one of the

792
00:40:12,040 --> 00:40:15,399
Speaker 3: fifteen highest rates in the country. Well, Arizona much more

793
00:40:15,440 --> 00:40:18,160
Speaker 3: comfortable in the mid range. They are a top twenty

794
00:40:18,440 --> 00:40:22,280
Speaker 3: offense in frequency and efficiency from the mid range. Michigan

795
00:40:22,360 --> 00:40:24,840
Speaker 3: they're very good. They're twenty ninth in mid range of fishings.

796
00:40:24,880 --> 00:40:27,560
Speaker 3: But they never they're not They never shoot midian jumper

797
00:40:27,560 --> 00:40:30,080
Speaker 3: because they don't have to because normally they could just

798
00:40:30,120 --> 00:40:32,120
Speaker 3: get to the rim or if teams are hoping they'll

799
00:40:32,120 --> 00:40:34,360
Speaker 3: get an open three. They're three hundred and thirty seventh

800
00:40:34,360 --> 00:40:37,600
Speaker 3: in the country in mid range frequency.

801
00:40:37,719 --> 00:40:40,200
Speaker 1: So I just say, and then.

802
00:40:41,880 --> 00:40:44,000
Speaker 3: With this, I guess the cherry on top of all this,

803
00:40:44,120 --> 00:40:46,439
Speaker 3: now the caveat Like I said, Michigan can't shoot forty

804
00:40:46,440 --> 00:40:47,120
Speaker 3: five percent from three.

805
00:40:47,160 --> 00:40:49,920
Speaker 4: I think the key number is forty percent. If they

806
00:40:49,920 --> 00:40:50,719
Speaker 4: shoot forty.

807
00:40:50,520 --> 00:40:53,920
Speaker 3: Percent plus, I think Michigan's gonna win, So I'm banking

808
00:40:53,960 --> 00:40:57,160
Speaker 3: on that not happening. There's also a chance you get

809
00:40:57,160 --> 00:41:00,560
Speaker 3: a Cadot disaster game. He's been great, but that's against Duke.

810
00:41:00,719 --> 00:41:03,160
Speaker 3: That could always happen if this game is close down

811
00:41:03,200 --> 00:41:06,120
Speaker 3: the stretch. Is there any other guard you would trust

812
00:41:06,120 --> 00:41:08,800
Speaker 3: more than Bradley to have the ball in his hands

813
00:41:08,920 --> 00:41:11,840
Speaker 3: in the final minute or two That could end up

814
00:41:11,840 --> 00:41:13,359
Speaker 3: being the difference. And then the last thing, I'll say,

815
00:41:13,400 --> 00:41:15,880
Speaker 3: befo all throw out to Calgary because I'm rambling. I

816
00:41:15,920 --> 00:41:18,160
Speaker 3: am so fascinated to see let.

817
00:41:18,120 --> 00:41:19,240
Speaker 4: The one the other Michigan.

818
00:41:19,239 --> 00:41:21,080
Speaker 3: Michigan has a cheek goat in Lendiborg that they could

819
00:41:21,120 --> 00:41:22,360
Speaker 3: unlock at any time. He can beat you in so

820
00:41:22,360 --> 00:41:27,680
Speaker 3: many ways. What can Karshchenkov do against him? So fascinated

821
00:41:27,719 --> 00:41:30,480
Speaker 3: to watch that matchup and see you're not going to

822
00:41:30,520 --> 00:41:35,160
Speaker 3: stop Lendibor, but can he contain him more than anyone

823
00:41:35,160 --> 00:41:35,800
Speaker 3: else has done.

824
00:41:35,840 --> 00:41:37,799
Speaker 1: He's only a freshman, but this is a guy who.

825
00:41:37,520 --> 00:41:40,560
Speaker 3: Was playing against pros overseas and he's not going to

826
00:41:40,560 --> 00:41:43,640
Speaker 3: be afraid of the stage or of Yaxel. That is

827
00:41:43,640 --> 00:41:46,040
Speaker 3: going to be an awesome matchup to watch on the perimeter,

828
00:41:46,920 --> 00:41:49,920
Speaker 3: and then you have the Yaxle factor of him on defense.

829
00:41:49,960 --> 00:41:52,719
Speaker 3: You can always pull some levers to move him on

830
00:41:52,800 --> 00:41:55,880
Speaker 3: to someone who's hot, and that that's another fascinating matchup.

831
00:41:56,160 --> 00:41:58,560
Speaker 4: I'll stop rambling. I have more thoughts that I'll share

832
00:41:58,600 --> 00:42:01,080
Speaker 4: after I get to you. Calvary's what are you saying here?

833
00:42:01,640 --> 00:42:02,040
Speaker 4: All right?

834
00:42:02,080 --> 00:42:05,759
Speaker 1: You exhaustively covered that kind of top to bottom, So

835
00:42:05,800 --> 00:42:08,400
Speaker 1: I'm just going to throw in three bets I actually

836
00:42:08,440 --> 00:42:10,600
Speaker 1: like in this game. For sorters. If you think this

837
00:42:10,640 --> 00:42:12,759
Speaker 1: is going to be an all time classic fifteen round

838
00:42:12,800 --> 00:42:16,440
Speaker 1: heavyweight bout, all that, you know, narrative stuff, why not

839
00:42:16,560 --> 00:42:19,319
Speaker 1: just take the margin for either team to be five

840
00:42:19,320 --> 00:42:21,319
Speaker 1: points or less than this game because it's plus one

841
00:42:21,440 --> 00:42:23,440
Speaker 1: forty out of the market, which I think is an

842
00:42:23,440 --> 00:42:25,520
Speaker 1: absolute gift. I talked about it with Duck on the

843
00:42:25,520 --> 00:42:28,080
Speaker 1: Sunday Show. I liked the overtime angle, and I'd like

844
00:42:28,160 --> 00:42:31,000
Speaker 1: this angle. The overtime angle has cratered. It opened at

845
00:42:31,000 --> 00:42:33,600
Speaker 1: fourteen to one. It sounded plus seven to fifty. That's

846
00:42:33,640 --> 00:42:35,600
Speaker 1: now a pass for me. But plus one forty I

847
00:42:35,640 --> 00:42:38,640
Speaker 1: think is very generous with these top two teams and

848
00:42:38,719 --> 00:42:40,840
Speaker 1: teams that just don't lay down, they don't go cold

849
00:42:40,840 --> 00:42:43,200
Speaker 1: for extended streaks and left games get away from them

850
00:42:43,200 --> 00:42:46,560
Speaker 1: when they do lose. Arizona they won thirteen straight in

851
00:42:46,600 --> 00:42:49,920
Speaker 1: that stretch. By the way, they played Ken Palm to

852
00:42:49,920 --> 00:42:52,960
Speaker 1: Top ten teams five times, five dubs nine points per

853
00:42:53,000 --> 00:42:55,560
Speaker 1: game in terms of the margin of victory. They had

854
00:42:55,560 --> 00:42:59,040
Speaker 1: a harder tournament road. They beat Utah State, Arkansas, Purdue.

855
00:42:59,120 --> 00:43:02,320
Speaker 1: They did it with conviction, winning all of those games.

856
00:43:02,880 --> 00:43:05,719
Speaker 1: And when we start to get into the only advantages

857
00:43:05,760 --> 00:43:08,000
Speaker 1: that I truly believe because both of these teams are

858
00:43:08,080 --> 00:43:11,160
Speaker 1: just absolutely lead. Every single thing pops off the page,

859
00:43:11,280 --> 00:43:13,960
Speaker 1: but Arizona and extra scoring opportunities. They're thirtieth in the

860
00:43:13,960 --> 00:43:16,640
Speaker 1: country plus three point four per game, Michigan two hundred

861
00:43:16,680 --> 00:43:19,640
Speaker 1: and fifteenth at negative point six per game. And when

862
00:43:19,640 --> 00:43:21,880
Speaker 1: you looked at the Big Ten teams that could kind

863
00:43:21,880 --> 00:43:24,040
Speaker 1: of beat them up on the offensive glass, he had Illinois,

864
00:43:24,120 --> 00:43:26,360
Speaker 1: he had the Purdue, he had Michigan State. The boiler

865
00:43:26,440 --> 00:43:28,880
Speaker 1: Makers obviously knocked them off in the Big Ten tournament.

866
00:43:29,080 --> 00:43:32,840
Speaker 1: Michigan State wasted fifteen extra opportunities on the offensive glass

867
00:43:33,160 --> 00:43:35,279
Speaker 1: because they couldn't knock down shots from the perimeter four

868
00:43:35,320 --> 00:43:37,799
Speaker 1: for twenty three and a loss against this Wolverine team.

869
00:43:37,960 --> 00:43:42,239
Speaker 1: Illinois similarly could not capitalize miss twenty triples. Tennessee just

870
00:43:42,280 --> 00:43:45,720
Speaker 1: grabbed nineteen offensive rebounds, but they shot five for twenty

871
00:43:45,719 --> 00:43:49,240
Speaker 1: six from deep. So obviously everyone focuses in on the blowout.

872
00:43:49,440 --> 00:43:51,640
Speaker 1: I'd like to focus in on the work that they

873
00:43:51,640 --> 00:43:54,560
Speaker 1: did on the offensive glass. Another top five elite offensive

874
00:43:54,600 --> 00:43:57,800
Speaker 1: rebounding team, and as we know, Arizona not three point dependent.

875
00:43:57,840 --> 00:43:59,759
Speaker 1: They're going to be those two point hunters. They're going

876
00:43:59,800 --> 00:44:01,719
Speaker 1: to try to get things done in transition, They're gonna

877
00:44:01,719 --> 00:44:04,960
Speaker 1: be foul shot merchants. Does that get yaccell into foul trouble?

878
00:44:05,080 --> 00:44:08,080
Speaker 1: Because I think this team is absolutely mortal if he

879
00:44:08,239 --> 00:44:11,920
Speaker 1: has any minutes restrictions due to fouls in this game.

880
00:44:12,880 --> 00:44:14,799
Speaker 1: The three times they lost all season, two of those

881
00:44:14,800 --> 00:44:16,520
Speaker 1: three games he got in a bit of foul trouble,

882
00:44:16,560 --> 00:44:20,000
Speaker 1: three or four fouls in those ones. In additional bets,

883
00:44:20,040 --> 00:44:22,080
Speaker 1: I like Arizona put on the money line plus one

884
00:44:22,120 --> 00:44:24,920
Speaker 1: O five, But I'd also like to throw in Bury's

885
00:44:24,920 --> 00:44:27,920
Speaker 1: who I hit on the three point ladder in our

886
00:44:28,000 --> 00:44:30,480
Speaker 1: last round show. The three point market is caught up

887
00:44:30,520 --> 00:44:32,520
Speaker 1: to him because he's averaging over three triples per game

888
00:44:32,680 --> 00:44:35,280
Speaker 1: during this tournament run. But I think the point total

889
00:44:35,320 --> 00:44:36,799
Speaker 1: is still leaving meat on the bone. So I'm going

890
00:44:36,840 --> 00:44:39,239
Speaker 1: to go with a ladder strategy there. Over sixteen and

891
00:44:39,320 --> 00:44:41,640
Speaker 1: a half is where you start about minus one twenty.

892
00:44:41,920 --> 00:44:44,360
Speaker 1: To get to twenty points, it's plus one seventy or

893
00:44:44,400 --> 00:44:45,880
Speaker 1: better out of the market, and then to get to

894
00:44:45,920 --> 00:44:49,279
Speaker 1: twenty five it's almost five to one. And here's the thing.

895
00:44:49,320 --> 00:44:52,239
Speaker 1: When they're playing teams that are comfortable playing up and

896
00:44:52,239 --> 00:44:55,719
Speaker 1: down games higher possessions. Let's look how he has been

897
00:44:55,840 --> 00:44:58,560
Speaker 1: the really the go to guy offensively for them when

898
00:44:58,560 --> 00:45:01,720
Speaker 1: they play teams like Alabama, k State BYU Burry scored

899
00:45:01,840 --> 00:45:05,080
Speaker 1: twenty eight, twenty eight, twenty nine, and he nearly crossed

900
00:45:05,080 --> 00:45:07,319
Speaker 1: twenty five points against Arkansas, but they didn't need him

901
00:45:07,360 --> 00:45:09,640
Speaker 1: because they were just absolutely gutting them in the second

902
00:45:09,680 --> 00:45:11,800
Speaker 1: half of that game. So I think a lot of

903
00:45:11,840 --> 00:45:13,719
Speaker 1: strategy for him is the way to go. I'm tied

904
00:45:13,760 --> 00:45:16,520
Speaker 1: in with Arizona, and now that I'm on the record,

905
00:45:16,719 --> 00:45:20,640
Speaker 1: Illinois and Arizona advancing here, you can get plus four

906
00:45:20,600 --> 00:45:24,480
Speaker 1: to twenty on an exact national championship matchup of Arizona

907
00:45:24,520 --> 00:45:26,719
Speaker 1: beating Illinois. If you grab it right now, I think

908
00:45:26,760 --> 00:45:27,680
Speaker 1: that's the way to attack this.

909
00:45:28,760 --> 00:45:33,600
Speaker 3: Well, that was my championship before the tournament. In my bracket,

910
00:45:34,120 --> 00:45:37,279
Speaker 3: Arizona Illinois rematch of the two thousand and five Elite eight,

911
00:45:37,320 --> 00:45:40,279
Speaker 3: one of the best tournament games of all time and

912
00:45:40,400 --> 00:45:42,560
Speaker 3: for my money, the best first two weekends of any

913
00:45:42,600 --> 00:45:45,560
Speaker 3: tournament in the history of the tournament. Overtime games galore

914
00:45:45,560 --> 00:45:51,320
Speaker 3: in the Sweet sixteen Elite eight, so many classics. But yeah,

915
00:45:51,320 --> 00:45:52,880
Speaker 3: that was my pick before the tournament. Don't ask me

916
00:45:52,920 --> 00:45:58,080
Speaker 3: about my other two final four picks, Duke and Iowa State.

917
00:46:00,000 --> 00:46:03,640
Speaker 3: I blame the Jefferson injury on that. But yeah, the

918
00:46:03,719 --> 00:46:08,760
Speaker 3: other thing I'll mention because I think the shot volume

919
00:46:09,440 --> 00:46:11,680
Speaker 3: battle will be important in this game. It's one of

920
00:46:11,719 --> 00:46:15,360
Speaker 3: the ways that Arizona can make up the potential math deficit.

921
00:46:16,120 --> 00:46:19,040
Speaker 4: Now we've seen them, Like, here's the thing.

922
00:46:19,040 --> 00:46:20,920
Speaker 3: Well, the reason I mentioned that forty percent mark, I

923
00:46:20,920 --> 00:46:23,680
Speaker 3: mean only four teams have shot over forty percent against

924
00:46:23,680 --> 00:46:28,799
Speaker 3: Arizona from three all year against top twenty teams. They

925
00:46:28,880 --> 00:46:33,440
Speaker 3: both played ten top twenty teams per Torvik I think

926
00:46:33,480 --> 00:46:37,120
Speaker 3: Arizona's nine and one Michigan's eight and two. In those games,

927
00:46:37,200 --> 00:46:40,520
Speaker 3: Michigan shot forty percent from three against top twenty teams.

928
00:46:40,960 --> 00:46:43,720
Speaker 3: Arizona has held top twenty teams to thirty two percent.

929
00:46:44,280 --> 00:46:47,239
Speaker 3: What gives I think that like forty obviously if it's

930
00:46:47,280 --> 00:46:49,080
Speaker 3: like thirty nine or forty one, but like, I'm just

931
00:46:49,160 --> 00:46:50,560
Speaker 3: using that as kind.

932
00:46:50,360 --> 00:46:51,399
Speaker 1: Of a cut off.

933
00:46:51,440 --> 00:46:55,040
Speaker 3: One of Michigan's in the forties at a semi high volume.

934
00:46:56,000 --> 00:46:58,640
Speaker 3: I don't think anyone can beat them, but I don't

935
00:46:58,680 --> 00:47:01,680
Speaker 3: think it's going to be as this is. Michigan rarely

936
00:47:01,680 --> 00:47:03,440
Speaker 3: plays a team that can match them one on one

937
00:47:03,440 --> 00:47:06,200
Speaker 3: in the post and can stay out on their shooters

938
00:47:06,480 --> 00:47:10,120
Speaker 3: and has an elite transition defense. The other thing is

939
00:47:10,680 --> 00:47:14,640
Speaker 3: from a shot buying perspective, can Michigan continue to not

940
00:47:14,760 --> 00:47:16,920
Speaker 3: turn the ball over? It's been a problem this year.

941
00:47:17,000 --> 00:47:19,759
Speaker 3: They've been great in the tournament so far now. They

942
00:47:19,800 --> 00:47:25,359
Speaker 3: haven't played many heavy pressure defenses, but Arizona isn't one either,

943
00:47:26,000 --> 00:47:30,279
Speaker 3: So Michigan it's paramount that they don't waste possessions in

944
00:47:30,320 --> 00:47:32,239
Speaker 3: this game. They can get away with that against most

945
00:47:32,280 --> 00:47:35,959
Speaker 3: teams because there's their talent. But they've been very good

946
00:47:35,960 --> 00:47:38,320
Speaker 3: from a turnover rate perspective so far as this tournament.

947
00:47:39,160 --> 00:47:41,640
Speaker 3: I think that'll be a key thing to watch in

948
00:47:41,719 --> 00:47:47,680
Speaker 3: this game. And I do have to mention this the

949
00:47:47,719 --> 00:47:51,680
Speaker 3: Big Ten, like everyone just might be underestimating the Big

950
00:47:51,719 --> 00:47:56,520
Speaker 3: Ten this year. They've been dominant. They're I think nil money,

951
00:47:56,680 --> 00:47:59,719
Speaker 3: they're able to catch up to, like just from a

952
00:47:59,760 --> 00:48:03,319
Speaker 3: depth of the conference, the elite of the elite. They're

953
00:48:03,360 --> 00:48:05,080
Speaker 3: on the come up, and they're against the spread numbers

954
00:48:05,080 --> 00:48:06,880
Speaker 3: that have been terrific. Now the counter to that is,

955
00:48:06,880 --> 00:48:11,839
Speaker 3: look what Arizona did to Purdue on a neutral court.

956
00:48:13,080 --> 00:48:16,640
Speaker 3: So I mean Arizona is all the answers all year. Interestingly,

957
00:48:16,719 --> 00:48:19,360
Speaker 3: these teams have had six had six common opponents this

958
00:48:19,480 --> 00:48:25,800
Speaker 3: year Perdue, Alabama, TCU, UCLA, Auburn, and San Diego State.

959
00:48:26,960 --> 00:48:32,360
Speaker 3: They went to combined twelve and one. Because Michigan split

960
00:48:32,800 --> 00:48:35,839
Speaker 3: against Purdue, that's the extra game. These teams are also

961
00:48:35,920 --> 00:48:39,080
Speaker 3: one and two on neutral courts against those six common

962
00:48:39,080 --> 00:48:41,640
Speaker 3: opponents they both had. They both had a net scoring

963
00:48:41,680 --> 00:48:46,080
Speaker 3: margin of over one hundred points. They've both won all

964
00:48:46,120 --> 00:48:50,080
Speaker 3: of their tournament games by double digits. They've been dominant

965
00:48:50,120 --> 00:48:54,520
Speaker 3: all year. This game should be a classic but I'm

966
00:48:54,560 --> 00:48:56,520
Speaker 3: siding with Arizona. Now this is like at a pick,

967
00:48:56,719 --> 00:48:59,439
Speaker 3: I probably wouldn't that's how them. The margins are thin here,

968
00:49:00,680 --> 00:49:03,480
Speaker 3: but it's the final four. Not gonna not bet it.

969
00:49:03,800 --> 00:49:08,920
Speaker 3: And if Michigan gets behind early, I'll be looking at

970
00:49:08,920 --> 00:49:11,560
Speaker 3: bet Michigan live. It's it's I think it's more important

971
00:49:11,600 --> 00:49:15,040
Speaker 3: for Arizona to not get behind early by double digits,

972
00:49:15,120 --> 00:49:18,359
Speaker 3: and it as Michigan because of that potential math problem.

973
00:49:18,680 --> 00:49:21,880
Speaker 3: From a total perspective, I am curious to see, like

974
00:49:23,080 --> 00:49:27,920
Speaker 3: does Arizona try to duke this game when it can because.

975
00:49:27,640 --> 00:49:28,480
Speaker 4: They want to run?

976
00:49:29,920 --> 00:49:33,560
Speaker 3: But do they look back at that duke game and say, Okay,

977
00:49:33,600 --> 00:49:35,880
Speaker 3: we want to just slow this down. But it's not

978
00:49:35,920 --> 00:49:36,720
Speaker 3: really their nature.

979
00:49:37,600 --> 00:49:38,080
Speaker 4: I don't know.

980
00:49:38,640 --> 00:49:42,040
Speaker 3: There's also and then in regards to Illinois Yukon that

981
00:49:42,120 --> 00:49:43,960
Speaker 3: profiles is a half court game, but there's a lot

982
00:49:44,000 --> 00:49:45,799
Speaker 3: of three point variants. I know, if I bet the under,

983
00:49:45,840 --> 00:49:49,040
Speaker 3: they'll shoot fifty percent from three, and if I bet

984
00:49:49,080 --> 00:49:52,200
Speaker 3: the over that no one will make a three. So

985
00:49:52,360 --> 00:49:56,520
Speaker 3: I won't have anything on either total greg anything you

986
00:49:56,560 --> 00:50:00,880
Speaker 3: want to add to as a rebuttal or reply to

987
00:50:00,880 --> 00:50:02,800
Speaker 3: anything that we've said in regards.

988
00:50:02,400 --> 00:50:02,920
Speaker 4: Of this game.

989
00:50:03,239 --> 00:50:07,040
Speaker 5: No, I totally understand taking Arizona plus money or plus points.

990
00:50:07,040 --> 00:50:09,960
Speaker 5: I thought this would be a true pick them. I

991
00:50:10,000 --> 00:50:13,120
Speaker 5: think as we talk it through to me, it really

992
00:50:13,120 --> 00:50:15,600
Speaker 5: comes down to Yaxle, it really does. If he's in

993
00:50:15,640 --> 00:50:19,799
Speaker 5: foul trouble. I think it's an Arizona win. I think

994
00:50:19,840 --> 00:50:22,440
Speaker 5: he's been so good, and I do think he's been

995
00:50:22,440 --> 00:50:25,080
Speaker 5: deployed differently than he was all season. I mean they're

996
00:50:25,120 --> 00:50:26,799
Speaker 5: really just kind of giving him the ball and letting

997
00:50:26,840 --> 00:50:27,760
Speaker 5: him get out of the way.

998
00:50:27,960 --> 00:50:28,240
Speaker 2: Stuck.

999
00:50:28,280 --> 00:50:29,960
Speaker 5: You kind of asked the question if it's close, is

1000
00:50:30,000 --> 00:50:31,520
Speaker 5: there any guard you'd rather have the ball in the

1001
00:50:31,520 --> 00:50:34,960
Speaker 5: hands of than Bradley? My answer is the actual guard.

1002
00:50:35,640 --> 00:50:39,319
Speaker 5: He's been used like that lately, and I think there's

1003
00:50:39,360 --> 00:50:42,880
Speaker 5: a world he does. Just take this game over. Karchenkov's amazing.

1004
00:50:42,960 --> 00:50:45,560
Speaker 5: He's getting a lot of hype coming into this matchup,

1005
00:50:45,600 --> 00:50:48,880
Speaker 5: but he'll be giving up two inches, So man, you

1006
00:50:48,920 --> 00:50:52,680
Speaker 5: can argue both sides here. Boys, I have no bias

1007
00:50:52,680 --> 00:50:53,840
Speaker 5: against you for taking Zona.

1008
00:50:55,200 --> 00:50:55,399
Speaker 4: Yeah.

1009
00:50:55,480 --> 00:50:57,360
Speaker 3: My final points will be if this comes down to

1010
00:50:57,400 --> 00:51:00,400
Speaker 3: like half court execution, because my hypothesis is the Michigan

1011
00:51:00,400 --> 00:51:03,760
Speaker 3: transition D is a little overrated. I trust the Arizona

1012
00:51:03,800 --> 00:51:05,520
Speaker 3: transition D. Part of that is just the three point

1013
00:51:05,560 --> 00:51:09,760
Speaker 3: shots and shot selection. Now again, if Michigan's making their threes,

1014
00:51:10,120 --> 00:51:11,480
Speaker 3: they're not going able to keep up, and then that's

1015
00:51:11,480 --> 00:51:13,600
Speaker 3: going to limit the transition opportunities. So it's like a

1016
00:51:13,800 --> 00:51:17,000
Speaker 3: slippery slope there. But if it comes down to half

1017
00:51:17,000 --> 00:51:20,239
Speaker 3: court execution, I think Arizona, both of these offenses are lead.

1018
00:51:20,320 --> 00:51:22,760
Speaker 3: The rim defenses are League, they're right on the glass.

1019
00:51:24,080 --> 00:51:26,520
Speaker 3: Arizona I think could stick out on the shooters. So

1020
00:51:26,719 --> 00:51:29,560
Speaker 3: like so, I think Arizona's more comfortable in the mid range.

1021
00:51:29,600 --> 00:51:31,960
Speaker 3: And then if you look if it comes down to

1022
00:51:32,000 --> 00:51:37,440
Speaker 3: half court execution, Michigan's pick and roll defense has been

1023
00:51:37,520 --> 00:51:42,799
Speaker 3: vulnerable this year and their post up D is not

1024
00:51:42,880 --> 00:51:44,760
Speaker 3: as good as you would expect with all their size,

1025
00:51:44,800 --> 00:51:46,560
Speaker 3: like in true post up possessions or in the sixty

1026
00:51:46,560 --> 00:51:49,680
Speaker 3: fourth percentile against pick and roll ball handles are in

1027
00:51:49,680 --> 00:51:51,840
Speaker 3: the thirty third percent tile And this is a prolific.

1028
00:51:52,080 --> 00:51:53,640
Speaker 3: This is an Arizona offense. It's going to work through

1029
00:51:53,640 --> 00:51:56,120
Speaker 3: the post and work via pick and roll. So I

1030
00:51:56,160 --> 00:51:58,319
Speaker 3: think there are some opportunities for Arizona to have some

1031
00:51:58,360 --> 00:52:01,560
Speaker 3: success in the half court. But a lot of this

1032
00:52:01,600 --> 00:52:03,520
Speaker 3: is going to come down to Michigan three point shooting.

1033
00:52:03,520 --> 00:52:05,600
Speaker 3: I mean, look at their three losses. Their three losses,

1034
00:52:06,160 --> 00:52:10,160
Speaker 3: they shot twenty one and seventy four from three. That's

1035
00:52:10,280 --> 00:52:12,160
Speaker 3: twenty eight point four percent. They didn't get to thirty

1036
00:52:12,200 --> 00:52:16,640
Speaker 3: three percent in any of those games. If Arizona holds

1037
00:52:16,640 --> 00:52:18,840
Speaker 3: them to under thirty three, thirty three or below, I

1038
00:52:18,880 --> 00:52:22,799
Speaker 3: think Arizona wins. If it's forty or above, I think

1039
00:52:22,840 --> 00:52:26,160
Speaker 3: Michigan wins. If it's in between. I think it's going

1040
00:52:26,200 --> 00:52:30,120
Speaker 3: to come right down to the final possession picks. So

1041
00:52:31,520 --> 00:52:33,680
Speaker 3: we will have a live show, probably have a podcast.

1042
00:52:33,680 --> 00:52:35,239
Speaker 3: I'm not sure it's Easter Sunday, but we definitely have

1043
00:52:35,280 --> 00:52:38,239
Speaker 3: a live show. Take your winners. I mean, I guess

1044
00:52:38,360 --> 00:52:40,840
Speaker 3: I'm sticking with my initial bracket. I'm going to Arizona

1045
00:52:41,440 --> 00:52:44,480
Speaker 3: over Illinois. I think both final four games will be

1046
00:52:45,719 --> 00:52:53,000
Speaker 3: absurd and just wire to wire great games. Greg, who

1047
00:52:53,040 --> 00:52:55,960
Speaker 3: are your picks for Saturday and who's gonna win it?

1048
00:52:56,040 --> 00:52:56,200
Speaker 1: All?

1049
00:52:56,520 --> 00:52:57,480
Speaker 2: Surprise, surprise.

1050
00:52:57,640 --> 00:53:00,320
Speaker 5: I got Illinois and Michigan, and I think miss Chigan

1051
00:53:00,320 --> 00:53:01,880
Speaker 5: will handle the rematch.

1052
00:53:04,440 --> 00:53:07,640
Speaker 3: All right, what do you I got Arizona would be

1053
00:53:07,680 --> 00:53:13,840
Speaker 3: fitting of all Big Ten final first time since Michigan.

1054
00:53:13,400 --> 00:53:14,759
Speaker 4: State won it, all right.

1055
00:53:15,400 --> 00:53:17,960
Speaker 5: Yeah, Well it's the only way they're going to get

1056
00:53:17,960 --> 00:53:18,840
Speaker 5: one for the conference.

1057
00:53:18,920 --> 00:53:20,400
Speaker 2: If there's a way for a team to lose it,

1058
00:53:20,440 --> 00:53:21,319
Speaker 2: they'll lose it in the final.

1059
00:53:21,360 --> 00:53:24,040
Speaker 4: Boy, No, but that wasn't all Big Ten, was it, Michigan.

1060
00:53:24,160 --> 00:53:28,319
Speaker 1: No, they beat through Florida in two thousand.

1061
00:53:28,400 --> 00:53:34,520
Speaker 3: The last, the last all Big Ten final. For some reason,

1062
00:53:34,560 --> 00:53:38,440
Speaker 3: I want to say it was nineteen eighty, but I

1063
00:53:38,480 --> 00:53:41,359
Speaker 3: could be making that up. I mean, yeah, Michigan State

1064
00:53:41,440 --> 00:53:43,320
Speaker 3: be Florida in two thousand.

1065
00:53:43,760 --> 00:53:46,000
Speaker 4: I'll look it up. What's your pick, Calvary's.

1066
00:53:46,600 --> 00:53:49,319
Speaker 1: I'm going to Arizona over Illinois and the national title.

1067
00:53:49,360 --> 00:53:51,399
Speaker 1: And as I mentioned, if you grabbed the plus four

1068
00:53:51,480 --> 00:53:55,440
Speaker 1: twenty now bare minimum, Arizona's going to be a four

1069
00:53:55,480 --> 00:53:57,720
Speaker 1: and a half point favorite in that title game, probably

1070
00:53:57,760 --> 00:54:00,600
Speaker 1: closer to six. So somewhere in there that gives you

1071
00:54:00,760 --> 00:54:04,200
Speaker 1: a phenomenal hedge opportunity to win both ways. If Illinois

1072
00:54:04,280 --> 00:54:06,920
Speaker 1: loses by you know, four or five points, and you're

1073
00:54:06,960 --> 00:54:09,040
Speaker 1: catching the right number. So I think that's the way

1074
00:54:09,040 --> 00:54:12,200
Speaker 1: to go. I feel real good about Illinois Arizona. Michigan

1075
00:54:12,239 --> 00:54:14,880
Speaker 1: could go either way. So I'm kind of almost hedging

1076
00:54:14,920 --> 00:54:18,680
Speaker 1: that future ticket with the game to be decided by

1077
00:54:18,680 --> 00:54:21,000
Speaker 1: five points or fewer in either direction of plus one forty.

1078
00:54:21,800 --> 00:54:24,040
Speaker 1: But yeah, if Arizona gets there, I think they're going

1079
00:54:24,120 --> 00:54:27,520
Speaker 1: to be in a comfortable position to cut down the nuts.

1080
00:54:28,000 --> 00:54:33,279
Speaker 3: Oh look at that fifty years ago. Fifty years ago, yesterday,

1081
00:54:33,880 --> 00:54:38,120
Speaker 3: Indiana Pianna Michigan was the last time nineteen seventy six.

1082
00:54:38,520 --> 00:54:40,960
Speaker 3: That was the first time two teams from the same

1083
00:54:41,000 --> 00:54:43,319
Speaker 3: conference played in a title game, I think, and that

1084
00:54:43,360 --> 00:54:45,880
Speaker 3: was at the Spectrum in Philly. I think that's the

1085
00:54:45,960 --> 00:54:49,800
Speaker 3: last one. Someone will correct me if I'm wrong. All right, gentlemen,

1086
00:54:50,120 --> 00:54:54,680
Speaker 3: we will have a live show Saturday, talk some props,

1087
00:54:54,840 --> 00:54:59,520
Speaker 3: updated thoughts on the games. Both should be fantastic. I

1088
00:54:59,560 --> 00:55:03,600
Speaker 3: can't wait for them. Enjoy the n and the crown

1089
00:55:03,800 --> 00:55:06,759
Speaker 3: in the interim if you can, but I'll be mainly

1090
00:55:06,840 --> 00:55:11,440
Speaker 3: staring at the clock waiting until Saturday. Savor these games,

1091
00:55:11,640 --> 00:55:16,680
Speaker 3: Savor Monday. College basketball season is almost over, but we

1092
00:55:16,719 --> 00:55:18,040
Speaker 3: have a fantastic final four.

1093
00:55:18,640 --> 00:55:20,480
Speaker 4: Good luck on all of your wagers.

1094
00:55:20,640 --> 00:55:24,280
Speaker 3: I hope you found some good insights from this podcast

1095
00:55:24,280 --> 00:55:26,560
Speaker 3: that helped you push, That helped either push you over

1096
00:55:26,560 --> 00:55:28,520
Speaker 3: the edge or kept you away. From something you liked

1097
00:55:28,600 --> 00:55:31,000
Speaker 3: or didn't, but thanks, that'll do it for us. Thanks

1098
00:55:31,000 --> 00:55:32,880
Speaker 3: to Greg and Mike for joining me. Thanks to our

1099
00:55:32,880 --> 00:55:35,279
Speaker 3: producers on the back end. Most important, thanks to all

1100
00:55:35,280 --> 00:55:36,840
Speaker 3: you fortuning and make sure you subscribe on subscribed to

1101
00:55:36,880 --> 00:55:38,759
Speaker 3: scroub Tell Friend, tem Endemy, know the drill Clee a

1102
00:55:38,800 --> 00:55:40,960
Speaker 3: five star review if you get a chance, really appreciate it.

1103
00:55:40,960 --> 00:55:41,600
Speaker 1: Helps us out.

1104
00:55:42,040 --> 00:55:44,720
Speaker 4: We'll be back Saturday, live show back Monday with another

1105
00:55:44,760 --> 00:55:47,200
Speaker 4: live show. Catch you all later, cheers.

1106
00:56:05,680 --> 00:56:10,239
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1107
00:56:10,239 --> 00:56:13,040
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1108
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Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler