WEBVTT - Daybreak Europe: January 30th, 2023

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Daybreak. You for this Monday, the thirteenth

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<v Speaker 1>of January in London coming up this hour right to reply.

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<v Speaker 1>The Dannie Stark sell off continues as Hendenburg rebuts the

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<v Speaker 1>Indian Conglamerates rebuttaled versus experience. UK business optimism hits a

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<v Speaker 1>six month high, but recession risks remain a serious breach.

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<v Speaker 1>Soon Act fires Zahowie after tax affair revelations, BP goes

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<v Speaker 1>bearish on demand, a short salist come up short, and

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<v Speaker 1>Britain in the doll drooms. Those are the stories we're

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<v Speaker 1>looking at in today's newspapers, and I'm leanne Gern's plus

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<v Speaker 1>slim pickings. A deal's drought leads to pay being cut

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<v Speaker 1>in half for top performing bankers in Asia. That's all

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<v Speaker 1>straight ahead on Bloomberg day Break Europe on DAB Digital Radio, London,

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg eleven three oh New York, Bloomberg Washington, d C,

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg one oh six one, Boston, Bloomberg nine sixties, San Francisco,

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<v Speaker 1>cyrus XM Channel one nineteen and around the world on

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Radio dot com and via the Bloomberg Business Set.

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<v Speaker 1>Good morning, I'm Stephen Carroll and I'm Caroline Hecker. Here

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<v Speaker 1>are the stories that we're following today. Shares in some

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<v Speaker 1>Adanni Group companies have continued to fall after a rebuttal

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<v Speaker 1>of fraud allegations from a short seller failed to soothe

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<v Speaker 1>investor confidence. The Indian conglomerate, in the midst of a

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<v Speaker 1>two and a half billion dollar share sale, is seeking

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<v Speaker 1>to stem a route that's wiped out more than fifty

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<v Speaker 1>billion dollars of its market value. On Sunday, Gamdanni published

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<v Speaker 1>a four hundred and thirteen page response to Hindenburg researchers

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<v Speaker 1>allegations of widespread corporate mouthfeasance. Bloomberg Market reporter Annabel Drulers

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<v Speaker 1>has been breaking down what's in it. The language is

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<v Speaker 1>extremely strong and basically he says that everything in there

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<v Speaker 1>is a lie. It is tantamound to security fraud. And

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<v Speaker 1>on top of that, there's a very nationalistic tone that

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<v Speaker 1>comes through it as well, because basically a Danny is

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<v Speaker 1>saying that as an attack on India on its growth ambitions.

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<v Speaker 1>And then you put that into context as well, because

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<v Speaker 1>a Danny is someone who's very close to the Prime

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<v Speaker 1>Minister Ranger Moody and is seen as really key to

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<v Speaker 1>carrying out a lot of Moody's programs. Alibeldoria spoke as

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<v Speaker 1>Hendenburg today double down on its position, saying that a

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<v Speaker 1>Danny's rebuttal fails to specifically answer the vast majority of

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<v Speaker 1>their findings. Well here in the UK, new data suggests

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<v Speaker 1>that outlook for business is improving as optimism reaches its

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<v Speaker 1>highest level in six months. Bloom Bigs, You and Potts

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<v Speaker 1>has all the details. Growing hopes of a brighter economic

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<v Speaker 1>outlook and cooling price pressures are boosting business confidence, lays

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<v Speaker 1>Banking Group's monthly Business parameter is showing a reading at

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<v Speaker 1>a six month high. That's despite more signs that activity

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<v Speaker 1>declined at the start of this year. Confidence indicators, though,

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<v Speaker 1>are sending conflicting messages. As forecast has worn the UK

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<v Speaker 1>is likely heading into recession. That picture was reinforced by

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<v Speaker 1>a separate survey by business group the c b I.

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<v Speaker 1>It says private sector activity fell over the winter due

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<v Speaker 1>to head winds including strikes, staff shortages and the soaring

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<v Speaker 1>cost of living in London. I'm you and pot spoin

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<v Speaker 1>Boy Daybreak Europe. The Prime Minister, She's saying. Arkasaks the

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<v Speaker 1>Conservative Party chairman and deems the Howe for serious breaches

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<v Speaker 1>of ethics rules. The news follows weeks of damaging headlines

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<v Speaker 1>related as a Howie and a multimillion pound tax bill.

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<v Speaker 1>Cabinet Minister Michael Gove says the government was abiding by

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<v Speaker 1>due process. I think it's important in all these situations

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<v Speaker 1>and our allegations are made, that they are investigated impartially,

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<v Speaker 1>independently and in full. We don't want to precipitate rough

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<v Speaker 1>the judgment, but we do once all the facts are

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<v Speaker 1>laid out, neat decisive action and that is what the

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<v Speaker 1>Prime Is has given today, decisive action, but only after

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<v Speaker 1>a full and proper investigation. Michael Gove there speaking to

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<v Speaker 1>reporters on Sunday as the news broke. The government now

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<v Speaker 1>wants to refocus its plan on overhauling the NHS as

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<v Speaker 1>heads into another week of disruption with strikes planned across

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<v Speaker 1>multi sectors. Meanwhile, Bloomberg understands that top investment bankers in

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<v Speaker 1>Asia are seeing their pay packets cut in half this year.

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<v Speaker 1>Sources tell us that on average, managing directors at banks

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<v Speaker 1>including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America are

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<v Speaker 1>seeing compensation drop by between forty and fifty. Meanwhile, non

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<v Speaker 1>performers are seeing pay reductions of up to sev and

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<v Speaker 1>many have also been left out of the bonus pool altogether.

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<v Speaker 1>The news comes as a slumping dealmaking ended the industry's

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<v Speaker 1>war for talent, with banks increasingly looking for ways to

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<v Speaker 1>keep a lid on spiraling costs. Wall Streets focus will

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<v Speaker 1>be split between global central banks and more big earnings

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<v Speaker 1>this week with a preview of what's look out for.

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<v Speaker 1>Here's Bloomberg's Charlie Palace, Microsoft end Intel rattled investors last week.

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<v Speaker 1>Lisa Shalott's chief investment officer for Wealth Management of Morgan Stanley.

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<v Speaker 1>She says it's a bad omen for the US economy.

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<v Speaker 1>There is definitive risk to the earnings profile as both

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<v Speaker 1>pricing power and volumes decline coming off what has been

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<v Speaker 1>a historic stimulus over the last two and a half

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<v Speaker 1>years and a paw forward in demand. This week, we

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<v Speaker 1>will hear from tech giants including Apple, Alphabet, Metal Platforms, Qua, Calm,

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<v Speaker 1>and Amazon, also reporting x on Mobile for GM, McDonald's

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<v Speaker 1>and Starbucks in New York. Charlie Pellette Bloomberg Daybreak Europe. Okay,

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<v Speaker 1>those are a few of our top stories this morning. Now,

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<v Speaker 1>I think this is I mean, if you've ever had

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<v Speaker 1>a hard day at work and you're looking at the

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<v Speaker 1>start of this week, um At a spare thought for

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<v Speaker 1>Rio Tinto. Apparently they have lost a highly radioactive capsule

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<v Speaker 1>along the highway in Western Australia. They're looking for it,

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<v Speaker 1>of course, but they have yes, they have not seen

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<v Speaker 1>it though for eighteen days. And it's also tiny. It's

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<v Speaker 1>just millimeters long. Yeah, I mean it doesn't seem like

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<v Speaker 1>it's going to be particularly easy to find. Now. The

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<v Speaker 1>Western Australian government has said that the package basically they

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<v Speaker 1>found this because the package that was holding us there

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<v Speaker 1>was one of the bolts that were missing and that

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<v Speaker 1>was one of the discovered that this very important gauge

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<v Speaker 1>was missing as well. Um At the head of ourn

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<v Speaker 1>Orfrea tend to Simon trut saying a statement that they

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<v Speaker 1>recognized this is very concerning and are sorry for the

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<v Speaker 1>alarm that it has caused in Western Australia as a result.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean they're searchings of highway to try and find it. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>absolutely so. As I say, spare thought for for them

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<v Speaker 1>looking for that tiny widget. Also, though we were talking

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<v Speaker 1>We have talked a lot about AI chat bots and

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<v Speaker 1>there's a new one apparently Yes, by Do, the Chinese

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<v Speaker 1>search giant getting involved in this space, set to launch

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<v Speaker 1>according to Bloomberg sources, and AI chat bot that's in

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<v Speaker 1>the form of chat GPT as well. It would be

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<v Speaker 1>China's most prominent entry into this space. Already. By Do

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<v Speaker 1>has spent billions on AI research. They've been putting work

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<v Speaker 1>into this area for a very long time. But it

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<v Speaker 1>would be a pretty big launch into this area. And

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<v Speaker 1>by Do shares rising on that. Yeah, absolutely, really really interesting. Okay.

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<v Speaker 1>Up next, BP goes Barish on demand short sellers come

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<v Speaker 1>up short and Britain in the duld rooms. Now the

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<v Speaker 1>paper review on blue birdday Break Europe. The news you

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<v Speaker 1>need to know from today's papers. Bloom Berkeley and Garon's

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<v Speaker 1>joins us now with more details. Other stories in today's

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<v Speaker 1>paper is good morning to you, Leanne. Let's start with

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<v Speaker 1>the Financial Times their headline, BP cuts long term forecast

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<v Speaker 1>for oil and gas demand. Stephen, good morning to you too.

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<v Speaker 1>Great to see you today this Monday. Now, this lower

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<v Speaker 1>forecast really reflects countries pursuing energy Stephen, energy security by

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<v Speaker 1>investing in domestic renewable energy, and lots of this comes

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<v Speaker 1>after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which is really pushing countries

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<v Speaker 1>away from oil and gas as they do want to

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<v Speaker 1>become very independent when it comes to energy, and BPS

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<v Speaker 1>annual Energy Outlook really highlights that it expects weaker economic

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<v Speaker 1>growth because of the energy crisis that we're facing. And

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg's will William Mathis he says the energy transition is

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<v Speaker 1>going too slowly to hit climate change goals, and this

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<v Speaker 1>is according to the British oil major's Annual Energy Outlook,

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<v Speaker 1>So we cannot get to those twenty twenty five net

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<v Speaker 1>zero goals that have been set at these climate agreements,

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<v Speaker 1>which is something that when this all looks together, the

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<v Speaker 1>Rush's invasion of Ukraine has had a real big effect

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<v Speaker 1>on the economy and also on energy. Yeah, absolutely, look

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<v Speaker 1>BPS outlook is always really closely watched, and you've got

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<v Speaker 1>to bear in mind that big oils expected to have

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<v Speaker 1>made on a billion dollars in profits, and you know

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<v Speaker 1>how they distribute those is going to be the source

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<v Speaker 1>of a lot of scrutiny. You know, whether all of

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<v Speaker 1>that goes and share buy backs perhaps a bit more

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<v Speaker 1>of it will be Hoover. Then Caroline's renewable energy becoming

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<v Speaker 1>another very big part of opening up jobs and a

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<v Speaker 1>transition and moving economies forward. Let's go to the Wall

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<v Speaker 1>Street Journal next, then Leanne and they hit their headline,

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<v Speaker 1>short sellers feel the pain in the stock markets three rally,

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<v Speaker 1>So short seller's fortunes have really reversed this month, and

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<v Speaker 1>this comes as the stock market has really started to

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<v Speaker 1>claw back some of the losses that we've seen, especially

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<v Speaker 1>over last year. Remember short seller has made those absolutely

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<v Speaker 1>massive gains in two and this is when markets around

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<v Speaker 1>the world just took those absolutely massive plunges that we

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<v Speaker 1>covered here extensively. And what's really driving this rally in

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<v Speaker 1>the markets, well as cooling inflation, is really stoking bets

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<v Speaker 1>that the Federal Reserve will pivot away from interest rate

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<v Speaker 1>rises and the second half of this year and actually

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<v Speaker 1>starting to cut them as things do start to call

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<v Speaker 1>according to the Wall Street Journal, and the strong US

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<v Speaker 1>labor market and also China opening giving lots of investors

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<v Speaker 1>hope as we move forward into tw twenty three, and

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<v Speaker 1>investors betting against stocks this is unbelievable, have wrapped up

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<v Speaker 1>eighty one billion dollars on short positions this month. That

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<v Speaker 1>is absolutely huge amount of money. And that's according to

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<v Speaker 1>the managing director of predictive Analytics at S three Partners

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<v Speaker 1>who has been speaking to the Wall Street Journal. One

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<v Speaker 1>billion dollars okay, so short sellers and then lastly the Telegraph,

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<v Speaker 1>the lack of a growth plan is leaving Britain in

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<v Speaker 1>the doll rooms. Look, we just had the Lloyd's Business

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<v Speaker 1>baromater saying, actually businesses are feeling what I mean, the

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<v Speaker 1>signals are really pushed pull on there in the UK.

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<v Speaker 1>That's part of the problem, absolutely, Caroline. You couldn't have

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<v Speaker 1>said it even better. So this is a warning from

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<v Speaker 1>the Director General of the British Chambers of Commerce, and

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<v Speaker 1>she's been writing in the Telegraph. Her name is Chevurne

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<v Speaker 1>Haveland and she repeated government changes in policy for business

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<v Speaker 1>is a recipe for disaster. So she feels that the

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<v Speaker 1>government keep on changing their position en and as we hit,

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<v Speaker 1>as we go into a possible recession, this is just

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<v Speaker 1>making things more and more confusing. And she delivered a

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<v Speaker 1>damning verdict on Jeremy Hunt's speech in this very building

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<v Speaker 1>on Friday. We know Mr Handle's here. I actually saw him.

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<v Speaker 1>I just want to put that out there. He was here.

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<v Speaker 1>I spotted him along with Stephen Carroll Um and this

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<v Speaker 1>really came as the Chancellor announcers plan to get the

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<v Speaker 1>economy moving again, and the BCC Director General said, any

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<v Speaker 1>business leader looking at whether they will invest in the

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<v Speaker 1>year ahead as they face a wall of increased costs

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<v Speaker 1>and taxes will have taken little cheer from what they've heard.

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<v Speaker 1>So in a nutshell, that's a pretty damning statement from her.

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<v Speaker 1>But she's saying increased taxes, energy prices, not enough support

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<v Speaker 1>from the government is pushing businesses into a really difficult position. Okay.

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<v Speaker 1>Thumbs down then from the British Chambers of Commerce when

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<v Speaker 1>it comes to that four ease speech from Jeremy Hunt

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<v Speaker 1>that he made hit in the bloom Bug Building. Thank

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<v Speaker 1>you so much, Leon Gons with a look through the newspapers. Now,

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<v Speaker 1>let's move on to the other big issues of the week.

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<v Speaker 1>While the Fed is expected to down shift the pace

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<v Speaker 1>of rate highs the twenty five basis points at this

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<v Speaker 1>week's meeting, the European Central Bank and Bank of England

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<v Speaker 1>both seen raising interest rates by fifty basis points and

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<v Speaker 1>this will be key for markets. So Bloomberg Value Titel

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<v Speaker 1>is with us on the week ahead. A great to

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<v Speaker 1>have you with this value Monachly policy meetings a plenty,

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<v Speaker 1>Oh boy, Yes, the Fed kicks it off on Wednesday night.

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<v Speaker 1>As you mentioned, they have the rate decision and a

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<v Speaker 1>press conference. Thursday the Bank of England rate decision. We

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<v Speaker 1>also get their quarterly monetary policy report, which will be

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<v Speaker 1>their upgraded growth and inflation forecast. Would be key to see.

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<v Speaker 1>How you know that their assessment of the UK economy,

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<v Speaker 1>given we've seen so many upgrades recently from economists on

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<v Speaker 1>the street. And then also on Thursday the ECB rate

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<v Speaker 1>decision and the press conference again, will regard be sticking

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<v Speaker 1>to her line that a series of fifty basis points

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<v Speaker 1>hikes are needed, so a slew of central banks. It

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<v Speaker 1>makes me nervous just thinking about it, and it is

0:13:07.520 --> 0:13:10.400
<v Speaker 1>a bit excited, I'm sure as well. Talk to us

0:13:10.400 --> 0:13:13.640
<v Speaker 1>about the key data that we're watching out for this week, Asia, Yes,

0:13:13.760 --> 0:13:16.560
<v Speaker 1>some big U s data. The highlight is the non

0:13:16.600 --> 0:13:20.240
<v Speaker 1>farm Payrolls report on Friday, which is the broad monthly

0:13:20.240 --> 0:13:22.320
<v Speaker 1>report of the US labor market. We know the labor

0:13:22.360 --> 0:13:24.559
<v Speaker 1>market has been incredibly tight and posing a lot of

0:13:24.640 --> 0:13:26.520
<v Speaker 1>issues for the FED. But we also get some key

0:13:26.880 --> 0:13:29.000
<v Speaker 1>survey metrics. We get the U S I s M

0:13:29.080 --> 0:13:32.480
<v Speaker 1>Manufacturing on Wednesday, and on Friday, right after the payroll report,

0:13:32.559 --> 0:13:34.360
<v Speaker 1>we get the U S I s M Services. Now

0:13:34.440 --> 0:13:36.560
<v Speaker 1>this is important because we've seen a lot of softening

0:13:36.559 --> 0:13:38.719
<v Speaker 1>in the survey data. It's yet to show up in

0:13:38.760 --> 0:13:40.840
<v Speaker 1>the hard data like the unemployment rate. But does the

0:13:40.880 --> 0:13:43.959
<v Speaker 1>softening in the survey data continue. We also get some

0:13:44.400 --> 0:13:48.360
<v Speaker 1>upgraded um UH wage inflation data out of the US,

0:13:48.440 --> 0:13:50.280
<v Speaker 1>as well as the Jolts data out of the US.

0:13:50.360 --> 0:13:52.840
<v Speaker 1>That's the job opening data. You know, we've had this

0:13:52.960 --> 0:13:56.080
<v Speaker 1>number around two percent of openings per unemployed person in

0:13:56.120 --> 0:13:58.760
<v Speaker 1>the US. Does that? Does that continue? And in Europe

0:13:58.760 --> 0:14:01.640
<v Speaker 1>we also get the CPI across the Eurozone. The big

0:14:01.640 --> 0:14:05.480
<v Speaker 1>print is the Eurozone print on Wednesday. Yeah okay, But

0:14:05.520 --> 0:14:08.840
<v Speaker 1>then also we've got loads of earnings to European banks

0:14:08.920 --> 0:14:12.480
<v Speaker 1>and tech. Yes, yes, the European banks. We get UBS

0:14:12.720 --> 0:14:16.760
<v Speaker 1>UNI credit on Tuesday. On Thursday, we then get Deutsche Bank,

0:14:17.360 --> 0:14:20.160
<v Speaker 1>UH and Santan Dair. And that's not to that's not

0:14:20.200 --> 0:14:22.760
<v Speaker 1>to overshadow we have some big, big tech earnings. We

0:14:22.760 --> 0:14:25.240
<v Speaker 1>have META on Wednesday and then on Thursday we have

0:14:25.280 --> 0:14:29.840
<v Speaker 1>a sull of them alf Alphabet, Apple, Amazon, and Qualcom.

0:14:30.040 --> 0:14:32.520
<v Speaker 1>So let's hope by the end of this week maybe

0:14:32.520 --> 0:14:34.200
<v Speaker 1>we have a good direction on where the U. S

0:14:34.200 --> 0:14:36.480
<v Speaker 1>economy is going and what central bankers think about it.

0:14:36.520 --> 0:14:38.680
<v Speaker 1>But I've I've thought that for many months now. This

0:14:38.720 --> 0:14:41.720
<v Speaker 1>is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, your morning brief on the stories

0:14:41.800 --> 0:14:44.880
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0:14:53.800 --> 0:14:57.240
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0:15:04.960 --> 0:15:07.720
<v Speaker 1>Hitka and I'm Stephen Carroll. Join us again tomorrow morning

0:15:07.760 --> 0:15:10.000
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0:15:10.200 --> 0:15:20.000
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