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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: This weekend, thousands of out of towners are descending on Omaha,

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Speaker 2: Nebraska for what some have called the Woodstock for capitalists,

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Speaker 2: Berkshire Hathaway's annual shareholder meeting. This year's agenda includes an

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Speaker 2: invest in Yourself five K fun run, an exclusive shareholder

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Speaker 2: shopping night with designer brands, and Q and a's with

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Speaker 2: the man who brought them all together, Berkshire Hathaway CEO

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Speaker 2: Warren Buffett. In this city of less than half a

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Speaker 2: million people, Buffett is a notable presence.

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Speaker 3: He still lives here.

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Speaker 4: You can still see him around town.

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Speaker 2: That's Jane Kleeb. She's chair of the Nebraska State Democratic

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Speaker 2: Party and she's got her eyes on Buffett and his

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Speaker 2: influence in the twenty twenty four elections. He's donated to

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Speaker 2: Democratic presidential candidates in the past, but so far this

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Speaker 2: year he's taken a back seat in a crucial year

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Speaker 2: for the party.

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Speaker 4: He's just not one of those donors like you see

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Speaker 4: in some of the other states that are kind of

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Speaker 4: an anchor donor for political work.

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Speaker 2: All of this excitement around Omaha, around Nebraska, around Buffett

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Speaker 2: is coming at a time when Buffett's district could be

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Speaker 2: a deciding one in the race between Joe Biden and

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump.

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Speaker 3: Two hundred and seventy electoral college votes.

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Speaker 1: It's hard to think one really mattering all that much,

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Speaker 1: but it's a very real scenario where this comes down

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Speaker 1: to a pretty thin election.

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg White House reporter Josh Wingrove spent time reporting in Nebraska.

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Speaker 2: He told me that a weird quirk in the electoral

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Speaker 2: college system has got a lot of eyes on Nebraska's

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Speaker 2: largest city this year.

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Speaker 1: There's a scenario where he's going to need this Omaha

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Speaker 1: vote if he wants to take president.

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Speaker 2: Today on the show, we zoom in on Omaha, the

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Speaker 2: Midwestern city that could have an outsized impact on the

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty four race. I talked to Jane and Josh

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Speaker 2: about what Omaha can show us about the trends playing

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Speaker 2: out across the country, the will he won't he of

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Speaker 2: Warren Buffett backing at twenty twenty four CAI, and what's

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Speaker 2: at stake for Biden in winning Omaha's single electoral college vote.

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Speaker 2: From Bloomberg's Washington Bureau, This is the Big Take DC Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm Salaiah Mosen. America's electoral college system is kind of baffling.

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Speaker 2: The candidate who gets the most votes overall might still

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Speaker 2: lose if they don't get the most electoral college votes.

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Speaker 2: But what's happening in Nebraska shows that it's even weirder

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Speaker 2: than we thought. It might be possible that a single

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Speaker 2: electoral college vote from a district that includes Omaha and

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Speaker 2: several surrounding counties could be the deciding factor that tips

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Speaker 2: the election for one of the candidates.

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Speaker 1: Back in the early nineties, Nebraska changed its rules.

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg White House reporter Josh Wingrove told me that forty

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Speaker 2: eight states have the same way of divvying up their

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Speaker 2: electoral college votes.

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Speaker 1: Winner take all, Right, Joe Biden beats Donald Trump by

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Speaker 1: one vote in Pennsylvania, Joe Biden gets Pennsylvania's votes, end

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Speaker 1: of story. In Nebraska, it's different. They give some votes

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Speaker 1: by congressional district and some votes to the state wide winner,

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Speaker 1: so it.

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Speaker 3: Splits up its electoral college votes.

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Speaker 2: What that means in practice is that a solidly red

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Speaker 2: state like Nebraska sometimes ends up giving one single electoral

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Speaker 2: college vote to a Democrat.

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Speaker 1: The battleground is the district around Omaha the second congressional district.

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Speaker 1: They call it CD two. Biden won it, Trump won

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Speaker 1: and in sixteen Romney one it. In twelve Obama won

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Speaker 1: and oh eight. Omaha has been all.

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Speaker 2: Over the map, but Omaha has not been the deciding

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Speaker 2: vote in a presidential election before. This year could be different.

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Speaker 2: Updated census numbers have led to new vote allocations for

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Speaker 2: states around the country, and that's shifted how much impact

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Speaker 2: this one district's electoral vote can have in Nebraska, and a.

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Speaker 1: Lot of the states around it are not swing states

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Speaker 1: and they're not closed. But Omaha, it's this sort of

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Speaker 1: little blue island in a sea of red right.

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Speaker 3: So it could really make a difference.

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Speaker 1: If Biden wins Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, but does poorly in

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Speaker 1: the Sun Belt in South, if he goes over four

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Speaker 1: on the battlegrounds down there Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina,

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Speaker 1: then he gets two hundred and sixty nine electoral college

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Speaker 1: votes he'd need to win this one vote in Nebraska.

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Speaker 2: If Biden ends up with two hundred and sixty nine

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Speaker 2: electoral college votes in November, the election will be a tie,

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Speaker 2: and it'll be up to congressional state delegations to decide two.

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Speaker 1: Sixty nine to two sixty nine would almost surely mean

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Speaker 1: Trump becomes president.

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Speaker 2: But a blue vote in Omaha could get Biden to

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Speaker 2: two seventy.

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Speaker 3: Two hundred and seventy electoral college votes.

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Speaker 1: It's hard to think one really mattering all that much,

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Speaker 1: but it's a very real scenario where this comes down

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Speaker 1: to a pretty thin election.

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Speaker 2: And Josh, where is the GOP in all of this?

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Speaker 2: What is the Republican Party doing to make sure that

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Speaker 2: Joe Biden doesn't snag this one crucial electoral college vote

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Speaker 2: in Omaha?

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Speaker 1: We've seen Republicans push to change the rules. About a

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Speaker 1: month ago, Charlie Kirk, this prominent conservative influencer out of nowhere,

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Speaker 1: really took up a campaign to advocate for a bill

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Speaker 1: that had stalled, encouraging changing the rules so that this

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Speaker 1: one district couldn't swing both ways so that the state

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Speaker 1: wide winner got all five votes and that would almost

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Speaker 1: surely be Donald Trump.

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Speaker 2: Here's Kirk on his podcast, The Charlie Kirk Show, firing

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Speaker 2: up listeners to support the bill.

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Speaker 3: Nebraska, why have you not fixed this?

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Speaker 1: We need a grassroots movement to get this completed. And

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Speaker 1: it went national so quick. Trump seized onto it, the

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Speaker 1: Republican signed onto it, and suddenly Nebraska was sitting there thinking,

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Speaker 1: in a matter of days hours, even are we going

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Speaker 1: to change the rules or not.

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Speaker 2: But that bill was introduced near the end of the

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Speaker 2: legislative session in.

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Speaker 1: April, and it kind of fizzled, but hasn't died entirely.

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Speaker 1: And what I mean by that is they didn't change

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Speaker 1: it in time. But right now the question is will

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Speaker 1: the governor call a special session if he has enough vote.

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Speaker 1: It doesn't seem like he has enough votes right now,

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Speaker 1: but if that changes, they could still try to change

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Speaker 1: this at the eleventh hour, and that would potentially really

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Speaker 1: change the math overall. And this maneuvering to change the

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Speaker 1: rules certainly suggests that Republicans aren't overly confident that Trump

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Speaker 1: can just win this district outright.

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Speaker 2: But Trump isn't the only one with problems reaching Omaha voters.

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Speaker 2: Biden's campaign has reason to worry too, and Democrats on

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Speaker 2: the ground in Nebraska State Party Chair Jane Kleeb have

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Speaker 2: their work cut out for them.

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Speaker 4: If you look at the different scenarios and what we

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Speaker 4: all expect is going to be a very razor thin election. Omaha,

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Speaker 4: or we lovingly call it Joe Maha could be the

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Speaker 4: difference maker.

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Speaker 2: We get into that and how Warren Buffett factors into

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Speaker 2: all of this after the break.

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Speaker 4: The second Congressional District is really a snapshot of America.

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Speaker 2: Kleeve, chair of the Nebraska Democratic Party, spends her days

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Speaker 2: talking to voters trying to understand just what makes them

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Speaker 2: tick and how the Democratic Party can best reach them.

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Speaker 2: At the federal level. Omaha is the one place in

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Speaker 2: the state where her party has a real shot at

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Speaker 2: influencing presidential elections.

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Speaker 4: You have a pretty equal distribution of Republicans and Democrats

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Speaker 4: and independence. You have suburban, urban, and rural in this district.

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Speaker 4: I think when people think of Nebraska they think maybe Coorn, football,

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Speaker 4: and cattle, and we have a lot of that. We're

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Speaker 4: very proud of all three of those. But we're also

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Speaker 4: a really growing diverse date. A lot of Latino families

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Speaker 4: call Nebraska their home.

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Speaker 2: Biden has struggled with Latino voters and nationwide polls. Jane says,

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Speaker 2: state Democrats are making outreach a priority.

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Speaker 4: The black and Latino community. They will be the difference

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Speaker 4: maker on whether Biden wins or loses. We do a

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Speaker 4: lot of community work at the local level with Black

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Speaker 4: and Latino groups and community members. Access to healthcare is

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Speaker 4: a big continued issue in our urban centers. There's not

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Speaker 4: only food deserts, but there's medical deserts as well. In

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Speaker 4: my community of Hastings, my doctor treats women from fifty

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Speaker 4: nine counties because of hospitals closing.

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Speaker 2: Jane is hoping that black and Latino voters will help

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Speaker 2: the second Congressional District live up to its Joe Maha reputation,

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Speaker 2: even as polls across the country are showing what political

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Speaker 2: analysts call the Biden enthusiasm gap.

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Speaker 4: You know, I sometimes joke that Nebraska is like one

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Speaker 4: election cycle behind other states. You know, it's true for trends,

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Speaker 4: and you know, we got Boba TI only a couple

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Speaker 4: of years ago and it's old news, and other states

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Speaker 4: it was just one little, tidy, funny example. So there's

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Speaker 4: enthusiasm for Joe Biden. There's I think deep connection, like

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Speaker 4: emotional connection to him. And you know Trump was bad

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Speaker 4: for ag markets, he was not great for the fortune

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Speaker 4: five hundred companies in our state. And so I think

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Speaker 4: you're seeing voters continue to say that they're going to

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Speaker 4: be with Joe Biden.

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg reporter Josh Wingrove says there's something to this state.

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Speaker 2: Republicans are divided about the vision for their party in

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Speaker 2: a place like Omaha and just how Trump forward their

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Speaker 2: messaging should lean. Democrats, he says, are more aligned.

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Speaker 3: Democrats are fired up there.

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Speaker 1: What they are trying to do, and what Democrats across

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Speaker 1: the country are trying to do, is give people reasons

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Speaker 1: to vote, even if they're on the fence about Joe Biden,

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Speaker 1: even if they're worried about his age.

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Speaker 2: That means getting issues on the ballot they think will

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Speaker 2: drive people to the polls and to vote Democrat.

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Speaker 4: We're focusing a lot on young voters and connecting with

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Speaker 4: young voters on the issues they care about, for reproductive rights,

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Speaker 4: legalizes in marijuana, climate change, making sure that our North

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Speaker 4: and South Omaha voters, those are our Black and Latino

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Speaker 4: voters and Union voters, that they continue to know not

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Speaker 4: only the accomplishments of Biden and Harris, but what's at

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Speaker 4: risk for them and their families in another Trump administration.

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Speaker 2: Of those key ballot issues, Nebraska Democrats are leaning on abortions, specifically,

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Speaker 2: they're working to get an initiative enshrining the right to

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Speaker 2: abortion on the ballot, but Republicans haven't let that happen

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Speaker 2: so easily.

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Speaker 1: There's now a proxy war taking shape over the question

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Speaker 1: of abortion in Nebraska. You kind of wonder whether we're

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Speaker 1: going to see this in other states where anti abortion

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Speaker 1: groups are fighting to get their own measure on the ballot.

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Speaker 1: And as of now, that initiative has precisely one reported donor,

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Speaker 1: Pete Ricketts.

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Speaker 2: Ricketts is a Republican senator, a businessman, and a mega

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Speaker 2: donor for his own party. With one five hundred thousand

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Speaker 2: dollars check, he was able to get this abortion initiative

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Speaker 2: on the ballot. It's proof that money can make a

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Speaker 2: difference when it comes to reaching voters and to pushing

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Speaker 2: issues that drive votes. And it's a warning sign to

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Speaker 2: Nebraska Democrats who aren't able to count on the billionaire

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Speaker 2: in their backyard, Warren Buffett.

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Speaker 1: Right now, it's not Democrats who have a rich Benefactorublicans.

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Speaker 1: Democrats are saying they love Buffett. Everyone seems to love

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Speaker 1: Buffett in Omaha, but may sort of laugh when you

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Speaker 1: ask about it and say they wish they could count

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Speaker 1: on sort of this stream of Buffet money to be

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Speaker 1: able to campaign on.

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Speaker 4: You know, Warren Buffett is an icon, and so anytime

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Speaker 4: he gets involved, it's a plus for whatever he's getting

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Speaker 4: involved in. So I do hope that he shows up

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Speaker 4: on stage with Joe Biden. But I think Warren Buffett

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Speaker 4: has been clear that for business purposes, it's always smarter

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Speaker 4: to stay focused on his business, and that's traditionally what

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Speaker 4: he does.

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Speaker 2: Buffett taking a back seat can have ripple effects down

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Speaker 2: the Democratic ballot. Josh spoke to a Democratic candidate, Preston Love,

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Speaker 2: who's challenging the Republican mega donor Pete Ricketts for his

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Speaker 2: Senate seat. Love is Nebraska's first major party black senate candidate.

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Speaker 2: He believes his campaign could bring more black voters to

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Speaker 2: the polls who might just cast their votes for other

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Speaker 2: down ballot Democrats and for Biden. But he warned Josh

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Speaker 2: that won't happened without more money.

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Speaker 1: He has not gotten funded by the National Democratic Senate campaign,

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Speaker 1: and the Buffets people also turned him down, and he's

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Speaker 1: saying he doesn't have enough cash and that if he

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Speaker 1: doesn't get more cash, there's a risk that black voter

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Speaker 1: turnout in north Omaha will be lower and that it'll

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Speaker 1: hurt both Biden and the House district race.

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Speaker 2: Reaching Democrats on the ground and getting them to the

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Speaker 2: polls for down ballot races, that could be an important

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Speaker 2: strategy for Biden. Overcoming his enthusiasm gap comes down to mobilization.

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Speaker 2: Involvement of major donors like Buffett isn't everything. Even with

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Speaker 2: his endorsement, Obama lost Omaha in twenty twelve, and without it,

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Speaker 2: Biden won Omaha in twenty twenty. But Buffett's support can

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Speaker 2: still go far back. In twenty sixteen, he got involved

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Speaker 2: in a big way.

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Speaker 1: He gave twenty five grand to a pack affiliated with

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Speaker 1: Hillary Clinton. But he also did a big event with

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Speaker 1: Hillary Clinton, like a rally, and.

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Speaker 2: Spoke that's Buffett chanting at a Clinton rally in Omaha

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Speaker 2: in the summer of twenty sixteen.

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Speaker 1: And at the time everyone was talking about Trump's taxes.

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Speaker 1: Buffett seemed pretty disgusted with Trump and dared him, challenged

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Speaker 1: him to release his taxes.

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Speaker 4: I would be delighted to meet him at any place any

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Speaker 4: time between non election.

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Speaker 3: I'll bring my tax return. He could bring his tax return.

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Speaker 3: Of course that didn't happen, but Buffett was really in

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Speaker 3: the fray.

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Speaker 2: Ultimately, Clinton won one of the counties in Nebraska's second

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Speaker 2: congressional district, but it wasn't enough to deliver its electoral

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Speaker 2: vote In the next election cycle. Buffett did not endure Biden,

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Speaker 2: though it didn't seem to hurt him, and so far

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Speaker 2: Buffett has stayed mum on this year's race.

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Speaker 1: Buffett has kind of been winding down since Trump won

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Speaker 1: his first election. Part of that is that he has

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Speaker 1: said that he thinks were simply in too polarized a time,

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Speaker 1: and he's talked about a concern of backlash that if

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Speaker 1: he takes a position one way or another, not necessarily

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Speaker 1: that it would hurt him, but it would hurt Berkshire Hathaway,

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Speaker 1: it would hurt the shareholders of his company, and even

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Speaker 1: the employees if they had to lay people off, if

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Speaker 1: they were the subject of some sort of boycott campaign.

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Speaker 2: In a statement to Bloomberg News, Buffett said that either

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Speaker 2: Biden or Trump could win his district, and the.

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Speaker 1: Biden campaign is declining comment. They don't want to really

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Speaker 1: engage in it, and I can see why. I mean,

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Speaker 1: there's just no indication that Buffett feels the same way.

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Speaker 1: About Biden as he did about Clinton. What we do

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Speaker 1: know is two things. Warren Buffett donating is a signal

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Speaker 1: to people one way or the other. It's also true

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Speaker 1: that these ballot initiative campaigns generally need money. If Buffett

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Speaker 1: decided to engage in that, he could have a pretty

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Speaker 1: big impact.

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Speaker 2: Buffett is in his nineties. It's possible he's hung up

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Speaker 2: his political spending cap, but Jane says the party hasn't

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Speaker 2: given up hope for his involvement and for a possible

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Speaker 2: electoral college win for Biden and Omaha.

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Speaker 4: I know that the Biden team communicates with Buffett and

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Speaker 4: his folks, and so I'm confident that that will happen.

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Speaker 4: I certainly think that we will see both Biden and

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Speaker 4: Harris here in Omaha. The Second Gentleman has come now

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Speaker 4: several times to campaign here, and I think now we're

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Speaker 4: anxious about when we will see Biden and Harrison. I

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Speaker 4: can only imagine that when that happens, you will also

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Speaker 4: see the Oracle himself foreign Buffetts with them on stage

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Speaker 4: as well.

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Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Big Take DC podcast from

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg News. I'm Saliah Mosen. This episode was produced by

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Speaker 2: Julia Press. It was mixed by Veronica Rodriguez and fact

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Speaker 2: checked by Thomas Leu. It was edited by Aaron Edwards

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Speaker 2: and Sarah Halzac. Naomi Shaven is our senior producer. Wendy

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Speaker 2: Benjaminson and Elizabeth Ponso provide editorial direction. Nicole beemster Bower

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Speaker 2: is our executive producer. Sage Bauman is Bloomberg's head of podcasts.

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