1
00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:07,400
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

2
00:00:14,200 --> 00:00:18,920
Speaker 2: Single best idea After an exhausting week, I can honestly say,

3
00:00:19,800 --> 00:00:22,520
Speaker 2: for the first time I walked in the office today

4
00:00:22,840 --> 00:00:26,520
Speaker 2: somewhat awake. It has been an exhausting two weeks, an

5
00:00:26,600 --> 00:00:30,840
Speaker 2: exhausting period here of tariff and its effect on the

6
00:00:30,880 --> 00:00:33,960
Speaker 2: markets and all. Today we head in a set of

7
00:00:34,040 --> 00:00:37,400
Speaker 2: political guests. Thank you for the fierce comments on the

8
00:00:37,400 --> 00:00:40,080
Speaker 2: political guests those four and again, so it's always good

9
00:00:40,080 --> 00:00:43,640
Speaker 2: to see that. And of course we looked at economics, finance, investment,

10
00:00:44,200 --> 00:00:47,440
Speaker 2: but the heart of this, the deepest market is the

11
00:00:47,440 --> 00:00:50,960
Speaker 2: bond market. Amand Alignum is expert on this at Blackrock.

12
00:00:51,479 --> 00:00:53,519
Speaker 2: She can look out to ten years, the belly of

13
00:00:53,560 --> 00:00:56,880
Speaker 2: the curve, five to seven years. Here amand Alignum of

14
00:00:56,920 --> 00:00:59,240
Speaker 2: Blackrock in on the trust market.

15
00:00:59,480 --> 00:01:02,760
Speaker 1: The rep the short term funding repo markets are definitely

16
00:01:02,800 --> 00:01:05,399
Speaker 1: important in times like this. We're staying in very first contact.

17
00:01:05,560 --> 00:01:08,080
Speaker 1: They are there. I would say liquidity is a bit challenged,

18
00:01:08,080 --> 00:01:11,760
Speaker 1: but they're for sure open and functioning for corporate credit investors. Actually,

19
00:01:11,800 --> 00:01:14,560
Speaker 1: the new issue debt capital markets has been a really

20
00:01:14,600 --> 00:01:18,679
Speaker 1: important barometer of confidence during late twenty eighteen, during the

21
00:01:18,720 --> 00:01:22,840
Speaker 1: pandemic even during periods of the commodity disruption. The freezing

22
00:01:22,880 --> 00:01:25,479
Speaker 1: of those capital markets during those periods of time did

23
00:01:25,520 --> 00:01:28,280
Speaker 1: catch the FEDS attention. We know that right now they're

24
00:01:28,319 --> 00:01:30,639
Speaker 1: open and functioning, just at a higher cost. We're watching

25
00:01:30,640 --> 00:01:33,640
Speaker 1: that very closely. The other thing, at a more macro level,

26
00:01:33,720 --> 00:01:36,280
Speaker 1: is this feedback loop, this really important feedback loop. We

27
00:01:36,319 --> 00:01:39,800
Speaker 1: would argue between corporate margins, the layoff rate, which is

28
00:01:39,840 --> 00:01:43,959
Speaker 1: still low, consumer spending and overall economic activity. If pressures

29
00:01:44,000 --> 00:01:46,720
Speaker 1: on margins are enough for corporates to flex that layoff

30
00:01:46,720 --> 00:01:48,800
Speaker 1: tool more aggressively, we think that could really cause some

31
00:01:49,240 --> 00:01:51,120
Speaker 1: concern in the broader economic backdrop.

32
00:01:51,200 --> 00:01:53,760
Speaker 2: The man aligne of Blackrock. Just to pro tip here

33
00:01:53,880 --> 00:01:58,360
Speaker 2: in other crises, we've always had libor ois, the comparison

34
00:01:59,000 --> 00:02:04,560
Speaker 2: of the benchmark three month liboard to theis indicator, and

35
00:02:04,880 --> 00:02:07,520
Speaker 2: that is sort of thing that's gone aside, if you will.

36
00:02:07,920 --> 00:02:09,720
Speaker 2: And in the short term market, what I look at

37
00:02:09,720 --> 00:02:13,160
Speaker 2: in the Bloomberg is the SO for ten year. Damien Sassauer,

38
00:02:13,200 --> 00:02:17,200
Speaker 2: who's better than me, looks at SO for two years SOFR,

39
00:02:17,680 --> 00:02:21,160
Speaker 2: and then ten year SOFR and then two year, and

40
00:02:21,240 --> 00:02:25,120
Speaker 2: those thermometers as a mandoliin set have calmed down in

41
00:02:25,200 --> 00:02:29,920
Speaker 2: the last number of days. Anastasia Ameroso is with IKEAP.

42
00:02:30,520 --> 00:02:33,800
Speaker 2: She's mixed on the market. Boy was she a successful

43
00:02:33,800 --> 00:02:36,960
Speaker 2: bull here for years. A very tentative view on the

44
00:02:37,000 --> 00:02:40,800
Speaker 2: market here Anastasia Amroso on the MAG seven.

45
00:02:40,960 --> 00:02:43,120
Speaker 3: The first place I would step into would not be

46
00:02:43,200 --> 00:02:46,880
Speaker 3: the MAG seven. Stocks and semiconductors, for example, will likely

47
00:02:46,919 --> 00:02:50,200
Speaker 3: be challenged if you have this cyclical slowdown in the

48
00:02:50,200 --> 00:02:53,280
Speaker 3: global economy. They just get caught up in export controls

49
00:02:53,320 --> 00:02:57,000
Speaker 3: and the overall slowdown. So I don't necessarily think that

50
00:02:57,000 --> 00:02:59,640
Speaker 3: that part of it right now is the first place

51
00:02:59,639 --> 00:03:03,240
Speaker 3: to be. They're not immune from US economic slowdown either,

52
00:03:03,560 --> 00:03:06,800
Speaker 3: but I do think that, as I mentioned before, you

53
00:03:06,840 --> 00:03:09,760
Speaker 3: want to align yourself with the direction of policy right now,

54
00:03:10,040 --> 00:03:14,480
Speaker 3: and the direction of policy is focus on domestic companies

55
00:03:14,800 --> 00:03:17,840
Speaker 3: who are sourcing their cost of goods sold here in

56
00:03:17,880 --> 00:03:21,240
Speaker 3: the United States, and they're mostly selling to the US consumers.

57
00:03:21,800 --> 00:03:25,560
Speaker 3: So that's why sector like utilities and real estate and

58
00:03:25,600 --> 00:03:29,079
Speaker 3: consumer staples for example have outperformed. And by the way,

59
00:03:29,120 --> 00:03:32,800
Speaker 3: also financials are held up as well. So that's why

60
00:03:32,960 --> 00:03:35,560
Speaker 3: I would focus there right now. But I will say

61
00:03:36,080 --> 00:03:41,360
Speaker 3: Tom that you know, if this administration succeeds longer term.

62
00:03:41,600 --> 00:03:45,640
Speaker 3: And if this results in deals that brings production to

63
00:03:45,680 --> 00:03:48,760
Speaker 3: the United States, if this results in a new world

64
00:03:48,880 --> 00:03:52,640
Speaker 3: order we're actually griffs and non tariff barriers do drop,

65
00:03:52,720 --> 00:03:56,080
Speaker 3: then maybe we do have this on shoring investment boom.

66
00:03:56,520 --> 00:03:59,680
Speaker 3: And so you have to allow for the possibility, especially

67
00:03:59,680 --> 00:04:03,320
Speaker 3: give and the tax pass in the US website so favorable.

68
00:04:03,040 --> 00:04:06,440
Speaker 2: In the Stajamoroso with Ikap, Thank you so much for

69
00:04:06,440 --> 00:04:09,480
Speaker 2: being with us today. On your commute across the nation,

70
00:04:09,640 --> 00:04:13,680
Speaker 2: particularly on Android Auto, Apple CarPlay, those are booming new

71
00:04:13,760 --> 00:04:17,159
Speaker 2: digital platforms for us. Goodbarding ninety nine to one FM

72
00:04:17,160 --> 00:04:22,040
Speaker 2: in Washington, ninety two nine FM in Boston. Of course,

73
00:04:22,080 --> 00:04:26,120
Speaker 2: our flagship Bloomberg eleven three to zero out on our podcasts.

74
00:04:26,240 --> 00:04:29,599
Speaker 2: Go to YouTube, subscribe to Bloomberg podcast. It's the best

75
00:04:29,600 --> 00:04:33,800
Speaker 2: way to get all of our material and on YouTube podcasts.

76
00:04:34,080 --> 00:04:49,800
Speaker 2: This is a single best idea.