1 00:00:05,120 --> 00:00:09,200 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane. Along 2 00:00:09,240 --> 00:00:13,200 Speaker 1: with Jonathan Ferrell and Lisa Brownwitz. Daily we bring you 3 00:00:13,320 --> 00:00:18,600 Speaker 1: insight from the best and economics, finance, investment, and international relations. 4 00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:23,840 Speaker 1: Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcast, sun Cloud, Bloomberg dot Com, 5 00:00:23,920 --> 00:00:30,520 Speaker 1: and of course on the Bloomberg terminal. What we will 6 00:00:30,600 --> 00:00:33,400 Speaker 1: do is speak of this war. We do this with 7 00:00:33,440 --> 00:00:36,599 Speaker 1: a gentleman early in his career at that time when 8 00:00:36,720 --> 00:00:40,040 Speaker 1: Russia again blew up in the early nineties, Mark Kimmitt 9 00:00:40,040 --> 00:00:43,320 Speaker 1: was with the eighth Infantry and then answer other tours 10 00:00:43,320 --> 00:00:46,840 Speaker 1: of duty with the Army and General Kimmitt Division Artillery 11 00:00:46,880 --> 00:00:51,080 Speaker 1: Commander the first Armored Division in Germany. He has hands 12 00:00:51,080 --> 00:00:54,560 Speaker 1: on experiences Ben Hodges did the other day for US 13 00:00:54,600 --> 00:00:57,800 Speaker 1: as well. General Kimmitt, thank you for joining us UH 14 00:00:57,840 --> 00:01:01,320 Speaker 1: this morning. Mark Kimmitt, What will the tank warfare look 15 00:01:01,440 --> 00:01:06,240 Speaker 1: like in Carcave? What will the warfare look like in Kiev? Well, 16 00:01:06,280 --> 00:01:08,840 Speaker 1: first of all time, it won't be tank warfare. All 17 00:01:08,880 --> 00:01:12,440 Speaker 1: those advantages that the Russians have with those mechanized vehicles, 18 00:01:13,160 --> 00:01:16,679 Speaker 1: UH in too great extent, is completely neutralized when you 19 00:01:16,720 --> 00:01:20,720 Speaker 1: go inside the city. These are small streets, even the 20 00:01:20,800 --> 00:01:23,160 Speaker 1: large ones can't fit a lot of tanks through them, 21 00:01:23,800 --> 00:01:27,319 Speaker 1: And it goes down to a completely different kind of 22 00:01:27,360 --> 00:01:31,880 Speaker 1: warfare that we're seeing right now on the roads. If 23 00:01:31,920 --> 00:01:34,680 Speaker 1: we're seeing a different warfare, do you suggest we'll see 24 00:01:34,680 --> 00:01:37,560 Speaker 1: it in any moment's notice and with that we will 25 00:01:37,560 --> 00:01:41,920 Speaker 1: see Ukraine do better than the last twenty four hours. Well, 26 00:01:41,959 --> 00:01:46,280 Speaker 1: we'll see clearly the Ukrainians have done very very well 27 00:01:46,360 --> 00:01:49,040 Speaker 1: up to this point, but it's the first ending in 28 00:01:49,080 --> 00:01:52,200 Speaker 1: a nine ending ball game. When you go into the cities, 29 00:01:52,800 --> 00:01:56,160 Speaker 1: everything that they've been doing up to this point changes. Uh. 30 00:01:56,320 --> 00:01:59,640 Speaker 1: They certainly have the advantage as the defender in the 31 00:01:59,720 --> 00:02:03,640 Speaker 1: city ease and a lot of the advantages that the 32 00:02:03,720 --> 00:02:08,240 Speaker 1: Russians had are just completely neutralized. But it is still tough, 33 00:02:08,800 --> 00:02:12,160 Speaker 1: brutal combat in a way that we haven't seen yet. 34 00:02:12,320 --> 00:02:18,040 Speaker 1: Urban combat is for any military historian certainly understood. It's 35 00:02:18,040 --> 00:02:22,280 Speaker 1: the toughest, grittiest, bloodiest kind of warfare there is. We've 36 00:02:22,280 --> 00:02:24,560 Speaker 1: had a many times, General that it has to favor 37 00:02:24,639 --> 00:02:28,680 Speaker 1: the attack. The ratio in combat in urban wol fat. 38 00:02:28,840 --> 00:02:30,639 Speaker 1: Can you run me through the kind of ratio you're 39 00:02:30,639 --> 00:02:33,160 Speaker 1: thinking about, General, Because we hear things like six to one. 40 00:02:33,440 --> 00:02:35,799 Speaker 1: What an attack it needs to overwhelm the defender in 41 00:02:35,919 --> 00:02:39,480 Speaker 1: Uban wol fat, What kind of ratio is needed? Oh, 42 00:02:39,520 --> 00:02:41,960 Speaker 1: it could be far more than that. You took a 43 00:02:42,000 --> 00:02:45,000 Speaker 1: look at what happened in Mosle. A hundred thousand troops 44 00:02:45,120 --> 00:02:50,240 Speaker 1: were necessary to go against ISIS and Mosle about six 45 00:02:50,280 --> 00:02:55,520 Speaker 1: thousand inside there. Uh. And unfortunately there's a huge toll 46 00:02:55,720 --> 00:02:59,200 Speaker 1: on the civilian population inside those cities as well. But 47 00:02:59,320 --> 00:03:02,920 Speaker 1: for an attack her to win in a city fight 48 00:03:03,080 --> 00:03:07,640 Speaker 1: is our marines did in Felluja. It takes extraordinary numbers 49 00:03:08,000 --> 00:03:12,000 Speaker 1: and it also takes extraordinary valor. And that last point 50 00:03:12,080 --> 00:03:14,080 Speaker 1: is the important point, General, And can we sit on 51 00:03:14,120 --> 00:03:16,600 Speaker 1: that for a moment. How unique is this when we 52 00:03:16,639 --> 00:03:20,040 Speaker 1: see these videos of the individuals coming from the Russian 53 00:03:20,120 --> 00:03:23,800 Speaker 1: army into Ukraine, which seemingly very little appetite to attack, 54 00:03:24,360 --> 00:03:27,640 Speaker 1: and the Ukrainian people just pushing those tanks back. General, 55 00:03:27,639 --> 00:03:29,359 Speaker 1: what have you made of that? You've seen those videos 56 00:03:29,360 --> 00:03:33,840 Speaker 1: through social media reporting on news networks around the world. Yeah, 57 00:03:33,880 --> 00:03:36,920 Speaker 1: I have seen the ones that are shown in social 58 00:03:36,960 --> 00:03:40,040 Speaker 1: media where the Russians aren't coming across the Well, what 59 00:03:40,160 --> 00:03:43,320 Speaker 1: we're not seeing is those early insertions done by the 60 00:03:43,400 --> 00:03:47,560 Speaker 1: Russian paratroopers into some of those air fields. Uh. Those 61 00:03:47,600 --> 00:03:51,440 Speaker 1: are professional paratroopers, they are not conscripts, and they're much 62 00:03:51,440 --> 00:03:54,640 Speaker 1: better trained. But when you're talking about the conscripts that 63 00:03:54,680 --> 00:03:58,960 Speaker 1: we're seeing on the road that are basically giving up 64 00:03:59,080 --> 00:04:03,440 Speaker 1: or dying, I think that the Ukrainians have acquitted themselves 65 00:04:03,480 --> 00:04:06,480 Speaker 1: spectacularly up to this point. General, do you think that 66 00:04:06,520 --> 00:04:10,640 Speaker 1: we are underestimating the morale issue, both the boosted morale 67 00:04:10,720 --> 00:04:15,760 Speaker 1: on the Ukrainian side and the opposite on the Russian side. No, 68 00:04:15,920 --> 00:04:17,839 Speaker 1: I think we got it about right. I think that 69 00:04:17,920 --> 00:04:20,800 Speaker 1: everybody is surprised at how poorly the Russians have done 70 00:04:20,839 --> 00:04:23,640 Speaker 1: up to this point. Much can be explained number one 71 00:04:23,800 --> 00:04:26,440 Speaker 1: by the fact that these are conscripts that never knew 72 00:04:26,440 --> 00:04:29,040 Speaker 1: they were going to be thrown into the war. Uh. 73 00:04:29,040 --> 00:04:34,040 Speaker 1: And number two, the intense, intense leadership shown by President Zelensky, 74 00:04:34,080 --> 00:04:37,800 Speaker 1: which is toughened uh, the backbone of every one of 75 00:04:37,839 --> 00:04:41,920 Speaker 1: those civilians and the military and the militias that they're 76 00:04:41,920 --> 00:04:45,159 Speaker 1: fighting them. General, can you see an endgame at this point, 77 00:04:45,200 --> 00:04:47,599 Speaker 1: given the fact that it seems like Vladimir Putin is 78 00:04:47,600 --> 00:04:50,720 Speaker 1: not giving in in any way, and the Western allies 79 00:04:50,760 --> 00:04:54,200 Speaker 1: are simply trying to remain with the sanctions and clamping 80 00:04:54,240 --> 00:04:57,120 Speaker 1: down harder on that front. Yeah. So that's a good 81 00:04:57,200 --> 00:04:59,640 Speaker 1: question because, as I said earlier, this is the first 82 00:05:00,080 --> 00:05:03,760 Speaker 1: in a nine ending ball game, and the Russians will 83 00:05:03,920 --> 00:05:08,120 Speaker 1: just continue to hammer and hammer and hammer away at 84 00:05:08,120 --> 00:05:11,800 Speaker 1: you in places such as cities. They don't worry about casualties. 85 00:05:11,880 --> 00:05:15,240 Speaker 1: They weren't, don't worry about collateral damage, they don't worry 86 00:05:15,279 --> 00:05:20,479 Speaker 1: about infrastructure. So I would expect that his endgame will 87 00:05:20,520 --> 00:05:24,120 Speaker 1: be to go into those cities and destroy them. It's 88 00:05:24,240 --> 00:05:29,000 Speaker 1: that simple. Destroy the buildings, destroy the people, destroy the civilians. 89 00:05:29,040 --> 00:05:31,839 Speaker 1: They don't care. They will continue to flow troops and 90 00:05:31,880 --> 00:05:35,800 Speaker 1: equipment in there and fire artillery missiles and bomb them 91 00:05:36,120 --> 00:05:39,120 Speaker 1: until they are destroyed. That's how they see the end game. 92 00:05:39,160 --> 00:05:42,360 Speaker 1: In many ways, people would say that's the only endgame 93 00:05:42,520 --> 00:05:45,920 Speaker 1: that you can accomplish inside this type of warfare. And general, 94 00:05:45,960 --> 00:05:47,560 Speaker 1: I want you to speak to the public that does 95 00:05:47,600 --> 00:05:51,040 Speaker 1: not warn the uniform that you have warned there's a 96 00:05:51,120 --> 00:05:55,159 Speaker 1: massive primal screen. Just do something. And I want to 97 00:05:55,200 --> 00:05:59,479 Speaker 1: talk about the American initiative or even initiatives plural here 98 00:06:00,080 --> 00:06:03,520 Speaker 1: to fly into western Ukraine and deposit a massive force 99 00:06:03,560 --> 00:06:07,000 Speaker 1: that the Ukrainians can use or to come in through 100 00:06:07,000 --> 00:06:10,000 Speaker 1: the Black Sea, alistra Vitas and the others. What's the 101 00:06:10,120 --> 00:06:18,160 Speaker 1: initiative America can do now to assist militarily, President Zelinski? Well, 102 00:06:18,200 --> 00:06:19,960 Speaker 1: I think the main thing is to do what we've 103 00:06:19,960 --> 00:06:22,719 Speaker 1: been doing, not only as Americans but as our NATO 104 00:06:22,800 --> 00:06:26,040 Speaker 1: colleagues and our NATO allies, which is flow as much 105 00:06:26,120 --> 00:06:31,920 Speaker 1: precision weapons into UH Ukraine as possible, whether it's sting 106 00:06:32,000 --> 00:06:35,400 Speaker 1: or missiles to bring down their helicopters, javelins, to knock 107 00:06:35,400 --> 00:06:40,720 Speaker 1: out there UH tanks in their artillery, drones to UH 108 00:06:40,839 --> 00:06:46,360 Speaker 1: conductoral warfare against selected targets. But we want to contain 109 00:06:46,440 --> 00:06:50,679 Speaker 1: this inside Ukraine. We can't be put in Americans into Ukraine, 110 00:06:50,800 --> 00:06:53,880 Speaker 1: otherwise this will spill over into NATO and it would 111 00:06:53,880 --> 00:06:56,440 Speaker 1: be a much much bigger war. What would you do 112 00:06:56,520 --> 00:06:59,480 Speaker 1: as a mandate as a general in combat which you've done, 113 00:07:00,080 --> 00:07:02,920 Speaker 1: What would you do with a convoy forty miles long? 114 00:07:03,240 --> 00:07:07,760 Speaker 1: Is that the job of modern technology and drones? Well, 115 00:07:07,760 --> 00:07:09,760 Speaker 1: the problem with that, of course time is that we 116 00:07:09,880 --> 00:07:13,840 Speaker 1: don't have air superiority. You remember in the First Gulf War, 117 00:07:13,920 --> 00:07:18,080 Speaker 1: so we need to fly zone the common of the moment, Generals, 118 00:07:18,120 --> 00:07:21,320 Speaker 1: we need to know fly zone. Well, the no fly 119 00:07:21,520 --> 00:07:24,720 Speaker 1: zone won't help the Ukrainian Air Force get into the air. 120 00:07:24,760 --> 00:07:28,520 Speaker 1: It's personally non existent at this point. Um and again, 121 00:07:28,760 --> 00:07:33,120 Speaker 1: the no fly zone would completely change the dimension of 122 00:07:33,160 --> 00:07:37,080 Speaker 1: this conflict from a war inside of Ukraine to a 123 00:07:37,120 --> 00:07:40,000 Speaker 1: war that can spill over in Europe. What we need 124 00:07:40,040 --> 00:07:42,840 Speaker 1: to do more than anything else is see if we 125 00:07:42,920 --> 00:07:45,840 Speaker 1: can get those Ukrainian helicopters in the air, because, as 126 00:07:45,920 --> 00:07:50,760 Speaker 1: we say in the military, forty miles of vehicles is 127 00:07:50,800 --> 00:07:54,000 Speaker 1: a target rich environment. We've seen them destroyed as we 128 00:07:54,040 --> 00:07:56,640 Speaker 1: did in the first Gulf War where were destroyed about 129 00:07:56,640 --> 00:07:59,560 Speaker 1: ten miles and vehicles, and it would be pretty easy. 130 00:08:00,040 --> 00:08:02,960 Speaker 1: But the Russians have air superiority, and we've got to 131 00:08:03,000 --> 00:08:07,720 Speaker 1: take that air superior already away from them through anti 132 00:08:07,920 --> 00:08:10,760 Speaker 1: aircraft devices such as stingers. But I don't think that 133 00:08:10,800 --> 00:08:13,600 Speaker 1: will happen in time. General, as things stands. To wrap 134 00:08:13,640 --> 00:08:15,880 Speaker 1: things up, we'd love your assessment of the base case 135 00:08:15,920 --> 00:08:17,760 Speaker 1: about how this turns out, you write. A group was 136 00:08:17,760 --> 00:08:19,679 Speaker 1: on with us earlier this week. They said we continue 137 00:08:19,720 --> 00:08:22,120 Speaker 1: to see the most likely outcome of the invasion as 138 00:08:22,160 --> 00:08:25,720 Speaker 1: a combination of regime change and Russian political control of 139 00:08:25,800 --> 00:08:29,640 Speaker 1: the entirety of the country. What's your conclusion, your base 140 00:08:29,680 --> 00:08:33,720 Speaker 1: case at the moment, General, Well, I think that's probably 141 00:08:33,720 --> 00:08:36,640 Speaker 1: where it will end up. At these peace negotiations. Of 142 00:08:36,720 --> 00:08:41,280 Speaker 1: these peace talks on the Belarusian border don't accomplish anything. Remember, 143 00:08:41,360 --> 00:08:44,559 Speaker 1: wars don't end when the last person dies. Wars end 144 00:08:44,760 --> 00:08:48,680 Speaker 1: at the diplomacy table, at the negotiating table, and candidly, 145 00:08:48,720 --> 00:08:55,520 Speaker 1: the sooner we can negotiate Russia out of Ukraine, the better, mark, General, 146 00:08:55,600 --> 00:08:57,800 Speaker 1: I'm wondering a lot of people are talking about the 147 00:08:57,800 --> 00:09:00,920 Speaker 1: fact that Russia is a nuclear power, and NATO came 148 00:09:00,960 --> 00:09:02,760 Speaker 1: out this morning and said that there's no need to 149 00:09:02,840 --> 00:09:06,120 Speaker 1: change the nuclear weapons alert, even though Russia has come 150 00:09:06,120 --> 00:09:09,440 Speaker 1: out and taken steps on that front. How concerned should 151 00:09:09,440 --> 00:09:12,800 Speaker 1: we be? Can we shrug this off? Well, I don't 152 00:09:12,840 --> 00:09:15,640 Speaker 1: think we can struggle just shrug it off. But I 153 00:09:15,679 --> 00:09:19,160 Speaker 1: wouldn't tell you that while Vladimir Putin maybe stupid, he's 154 00:09:19,160 --> 00:09:22,640 Speaker 1: not suicidal. And I think even he recognizes that a 155 00:09:22,760 --> 00:09:26,079 Speaker 1: nuclear exchange any kind would be not only the end 156 00:09:26,440 --> 00:09:29,440 Speaker 1: of his regime, but in many ways could could completely 157 00:09:29,520 --> 00:09:32,800 Speaker 1: sink the Russian Federation. General we have to leave it there. 158 00:09:32,840 --> 00:09:35,160 Speaker 1: We appreciate your time, and sir, please stay close. We'd 159 00:09:35,160 --> 00:09:37,160 Speaker 1: love to catch up with you again soon. Lucky to 160 00:09:37,200 --> 00:09:45,960 Speaker 1: catch up with General Mark Kimmitt this morning, let us 161 00:09:46,000 --> 00:09:50,800 Speaker 1: go to an informed guest. She is absolutely brilliant in mathematics. 162 00:09:50,800 --> 00:09:54,240 Speaker 1: Her graduate studies are just bulletproof. She holds court if 163 00:09:54,240 --> 00:09:57,760 Speaker 1: b n Y Melon Wealth Management Alicia Levine on this 164 00:09:57,960 --> 00:10:01,520 Speaker 1: historic Tuesday. Alicia, how is your view of the markets 165 00:10:01,640 --> 00:10:07,880 Speaker 1: changed given war? Look, the geopolitical situation over in Europe 166 00:10:07,880 --> 00:10:12,199 Speaker 1: with a hot war really just adds another layer to 167 00:10:12,360 --> 00:10:17,760 Speaker 1: an already kind of very difficult environment for equities here, 168 00:10:17,800 --> 00:10:21,880 Speaker 1: because you have that specter of the nineteen late nineteen seventies, 169 00:10:21,920 --> 00:10:26,520 Speaker 1: early nineteen eighties, of that stag flash, stagflationary fear of 170 00:10:26,640 --> 00:10:31,120 Speaker 1: sort of ever ratcheting down growth and ever ratcheting up inflation, 171 00:10:31,240 --> 00:10:34,560 Speaker 1: as you've just spoken about. And what this conflict does 172 00:10:34,720 --> 00:10:37,960 Speaker 1: is it plays into the inflationary piece, because I don't 173 00:10:38,000 --> 00:10:41,080 Speaker 1: think the oil and gas piece, you know, the markets 174 00:10:41,080 --> 00:10:43,679 Speaker 1: assuming that flows are going to say the way they 175 00:10:43,720 --> 00:10:46,240 Speaker 1: are and then Iran will come on and it will 176 00:10:46,280 --> 00:10:48,920 Speaker 1: be fine. And I think we have to ask ourselves, 177 00:10:48,920 --> 00:10:51,080 Speaker 1: what if that doesn't happen. You know what if we 178 00:10:51,120 --> 00:10:54,240 Speaker 1: do see a disruption, and I think you could see 179 00:10:54,320 --> 00:10:57,199 Speaker 1: energy higher. And let's not forget that Ukraine is the 180 00:10:57,240 --> 00:11:01,520 Speaker 1: bread basket of the former Soviet. You Union of the 181 00:11:01,559 --> 00:11:05,760 Speaker 1: world's week comes from Ukraine, and so therefore commodity price 182 00:11:05,800 --> 00:11:09,040 Speaker 1: inflation is going to stay higher. So it just really 183 00:11:09,080 --> 00:11:13,320 Speaker 1: adds to those concerns and difficult and difficult environment for 184 00:11:13,360 --> 00:11:15,439 Speaker 1: equities as a result. At least s are you surprised 185 00:11:15,440 --> 00:11:18,560 Speaker 1: by how much we're fighting FED action this year, a 186 00:11:18,679 --> 00:11:21,959 Speaker 1: CP action potentially later this year, and getting comfortable with 187 00:11:22,000 --> 00:11:24,240 Speaker 1: the idea that the FED will pull back a bit. 188 00:11:25,360 --> 00:11:28,559 Speaker 1: So I'm not surprised that the expectations for the ECB 189 00:11:28,720 --> 00:11:31,120 Speaker 1: have pulled back, because after all, in a sense, the 190 00:11:31,160 --> 00:11:34,320 Speaker 1: European economy is going to be most directly hit by 191 00:11:34,360 --> 00:11:37,640 Speaker 1: this conflict and by the sanctions and by some turmoil 192 00:11:37,720 --> 00:11:41,280 Speaker 1: in their local banks. So so that's not entirely surprising. 193 00:11:41,320 --> 00:11:44,200 Speaker 1: I think it is more surprising for the FED simply 194 00:11:44,200 --> 00:11:49,479 Speaker 1: because the inflation here is broad based and becoming sticky, 195 00:11:49,960 --> 00:11:51,679 Speaker 1: and that is something the FED is going to have 196 00:11:51,720 --> 00:11:53,680 Speaker 1: to deal with first and foremost. And I think the 197 00:11:53,679 --> 00:11:56,760 Speaker 1: war is about growth. Are going to be secondary. They 198 00:11:56,800 --> 00:11:59,720 Speaker 1: have to deal with the inflation piece, and ever increasing 199 00:12:00,000 --> 00:12:03,720 Speaker 1: oil here is not going to help. It's just lasting longer. 200 00:12:04,040 --> 00:12:06,720 Speaker 1: And what we've seen is that the length of time, 201 00:12:06,760 --> 00:12:12,760 Speaker 1: the duration that these kind of factors filter into expectations 202 00:12:12,960 --> 00:12:15,800 Speaker 1: just make it worse. And so even if we think 203 00:12:15,840 --> 00:12:19,280 Speaker 1: it's transitory for a year, it's already gotten into the 204 00:12:19,280 --> 00:12:23,520 Speaker 1: psyche of consumers and business leaders. Alicia, what happens if 205 00:12:23,520 --> 00:12:26,560 Speaker 1: we continue to get this move where rates actually come 206 00:12:26,640 --> 00:12:28,880 Speaker 1: down because people think that the FED is not going 207 00:12:28,920 --> 00:12:31,719 Speaker 1: to move, and yet we see stock markets continue to 208 00:12:31,760 --> 00:12:34,800 Speaker 1: decline because people are starting to price in stagflation. What 209 00:12:34,920 --> 00:12:37,360 Speaker 1: happens in a regime where people basically are saying the 210 00:12:37,400 --> 00:12:42,040 Speaker 1: FED has lost control over inflation. Right, Look, that that's 211 00:12:42,080 --> 00:12:45,040 Speaker 1: the key question, because it's it's not a great environment 212 00:12:45,520 --> 00:12:48,360 Speaker 1: for equities. But we actually think we're here in a 213 00:12:48,520 --> 00:12:53,360 Speaker 1: range somewhere between hundred range, which is where we've been 214 00:12:53,400 --> 00:12:57,439 Speaker 1: bouncing around until we settle what the main issue is, 215 00:12:57,800 --> 00:13:02,280 Speaker 1: whether can inflation start moving lower in the spring, and 216 00:13:02,320 --> 00:13:04,679 Speaker 1: can can be fed do it in a way that 217 00:13:04,720 --> 00:13:07,160 Speaker 1: doesn't inhibit growth. I'll say this, the data on the 218 00:13:07,200 --> 00:13:10,840 Speaker 1: real economy is coming in pretty nicely in February, and 219 00:13:10,920 --> 00:13:13,840 Speaker 1: so that really does support better than you know, pretty 220 00:13:13,880 --> 00:13:17,720 Speaker 1: decent growth. I am happily surprised about that, but that's 221 00:13:17,880 --> 00:13:21,240 Speaker 1: the range is where we are until it gets settled 222 00:13:21,320 --> 00:13:24,880 Speaker 1: one way or another. So there's risks in both directions here. 223 00:13:25,360 --> 00:13:27,040 Speaker 1: I think you're going to start to see a bit 224 00:13:27,200 --> 00:13:30,079 Speaker 1: in some of those large cap text socks also simply 225 00:13:30,160 --> 00:13:33,679 Speaker 1: because that is that is really the safety play, earnings, 226 00:13:34,080 --> 00:13:38,080 Speaker 1: cash flow dependability of a business that's really divorced from 227 00:13:38,200 --> 00:13:41,000 Speaker 1: from the economic cycle. We're a little bit more cautious 228 00:13:41,000 --> 00:13:43,640 Speaker 1: on the consumer cyclicals here, simply because in a rate 229 00:13:43,720 --> 00:13:48,280 Speaker 1: hiking environment and an increasing inflation environment, that's those are 230 00:13:48,280 --> 00:13:51,040 Speaker 1: really the areas to get hit first. What are you 231 00:13:51,040 --> 00:13:54,160 Speaker 1: doing with energy companies right now? So we still like 232 00:13:54,400 --> 00:13:56,920 Speaker 1: energy here. I think that much of the move is 233 00:13:56,960 --> 00:14:01,360 Speaker 1: probably behind us. But given the situation here, I think 234 00:14:01,480 --> 00:14:05,199 Speaker 1: energy is really still the play. The really interesting question here, 235 00:14:05,640 --> 00:14:08,040 Speaker 1: and you've been bringing this up all morning of CEO 236 00:14:08,120 --> 00:14:12,040 Speaker 1: from Devon Energy. You know, why isn't the US changing 237 00:14:12,200 --> 00:14:15,160 Speaker 1: it's it's energy policy in the way that Germany has. 238 00:14:15,200 --> 00:14:19,160 Speaker 1: I mean, think of German policy changed radically. You know 239 00:14:19,160 --> 00:14:21,680 Speaker 1: what what it was for the last several decades as 240 00:14:21,720 --> 00:14:24,280 Speaker 1: a response to this, and I think that's really something 241 00:14:24,680 --> 00:14:27,480 Speaker 1: on a policy basis would not be a bad thing 242 00:14:27,560 --> 00:14:31,400 Speaker 1: for the administration to address here, simply because it turns 243 00:14:31,440 --> 00:14:34,760 Speaker 1: out that complicts and places with very small percentages of 244 00:14:34,800 --> 00:14:38,160 Speaker 1: global GDP really do affect us. Alicia, wonderful to hear 245 00:14:38,160 --> 00:14:40,280 Speaker 1: from you, and so always Alicia living of BM y Man, 246 00:14:40,320 --> 00:14:48,600 Speaker 1: I'm with some really important questions. Let us move on 247 00:14:48,680 --> 00:14:51,200 Speaker 1: to our interview of the damn for in exchange with 248 00:14:51,920 --> 00:14:55,560 Speaker 1: Comac Travetti of Golden Sax were thrilled that you could join. 249 00:14:55,920 --> 00:14:58,160 Speaker 1: Uh this morning, come act you very simple, where is 250 00:14:58,200 --> 00:15:04,080 Speaker 1: the true valuation of ruble? Good morning? Thank you for 251 00:15:04,160 --> 00:15:08,280 Speaker 1: having me. I mean, this is the kind of situation where, uh, 252 00:15:08,320 --> 00:15:12,440 Speaker 1: you know, fundamental valuations are very hard to do. I mean, 253 00:15:12,520 --> 00:15:17,440 Speaker 1: you can think about things like Russia's oil and gas exports, 254 00:15:17,440 --> 00:15:21,080 Speaker 1: its current accounts surplus, it's reserves. None of these things 255 00:15:21,200 --> 00:15:24,560 Speaker 1: matter at a time when a large quantity of the 256 00:15:24,600 --> 00:15:30,400 Speaker 1: reserves are sanctioned. Essentially, the sanctions are making Russian assets 257 00:15:30,440 --> 00:15:36,000 Speaker 1: uninvestable for most you know, Western investors, and they're making 258 00:15:36,080 --> 00:15:39,800 Speaker 1: you know, valuations and fundamental valuation calculations pretty much impossible 259 00:15:39,800 --> 00:15:43,720 Speaker 1: as well. Can you use adjacent ratios to come up 260 00:15:43,720 --> 00:15:47,200 Speaker 1: with some form of guestimate of dollar ruble right now? 261 00:15:47,640 --> 00:15:50,240 Speaker 1: Moving out from my eyes are failing me here from 262 00:15:50,240 --> 00:15:53,640 Speaker 1: a one oh one, one oh two right now, can 263 00:15:53,680 --> 00:15:59,680 Speaker 1: we dare say one fifteen or one twenty? Look, it 264 00:15:59,760 --> 00:16:03,520 Speaker 1: all depends on how things evolve. You know. If you 265 00:16:04,480 --> 00:16:08,120 Speaker 1: look back to the period fifteen when you had the 266 00:16:08,160 --> 00:16:12,200 Speaker 1: annexation of crimea, hostilities in the don bus and of 267 00:16:12,240 --> 00:16:15,680 Speaker 1: halving in the oil price, you saw, you know, a 268 00:16:15,760 --> 00:16:18,280 Speaker 1: huge sell off in the ruble, you know, nearly you 269 00:16:18,320 --> 00:16:22,200 Speaker 1: know or so, and that came along with a drain 270 00:16:22,480 --> 00:16:27,200 Speaker 1: of central bank reserves of something like a hundred billion dollars. Uh. 271 00:16:27,240 --> 00:16:30,280 Speaker 1: That kind of drain or that kind of decumulation in 272 00:16:30,360 --> 00:16:34,200 Speaker 1: order to support the ruble is just not possible today. 273 00:16:34,240 --> 00:16:36,640 Speaker 1: So again I think that you know, one can come 274 00:16:36,720 --> 00:16:41,880 Speaker 1: up with you know, maximum undervaluation numbers or things like that. Uh, 275 00:16:41,920 --> 00:16:44,440 Speaker 1: you know, and we are well through those points at 276 00:16:44,480 --> 00:16:46,960 Speaker 1: at you know, hundred and fifteen or whatever it is. 277 00:16:47,080 --> 00:16:50,440 Speaker 1: But I just think at this point it's it's not 278 00:16:50,560 --> 00:16:53,200 Speaker 1: you need to see some crystallization of the risks. You 279 00:16:53,200 --> 00:16:55,520 Speaker 1: need to see some sense of the end point here 280 00:16:55,920 --> 00:16:58,280 Speaker 1: before you can put a firm value that this is 281 00:16:58,360 --> 00:17:00,240 Speaker 1: kind of as far as it goes, and and no 282 00:17:00,360 --> 00:17:02,960 Speaker 1: further in the meantime comm act share we're seeing is 283 00:17:03,240 --> 00:17:06,359 Speaker 1: nodes of liquidity amid the sea of illiquidity that is 284 00:17:06,440 --> 00:17:09,639 Speaker 1: the Russian market for all assets, where are you seeing 285 00:17:09,680 --> 00:17:14,000 Speaker 1: the most traumatic ramifications, the most traumatic moves simply because 286 00:17:14,000 --> 00:17:16,159 Speaker 1: it is the only place that people are using to 287 00:17:16,240 --> 00:17:19,399 Speaker 1: offset some of their other bets. That potentially could be 288 00:17:19,440 --> 00:17:21,920 Speaker 1: an overshoot if things do come to some resolution in 289 00:17:21,960 --> 00:17:26,720 Speaker 1: the near term. That's the That's a very interesting question. 290 00:17:26,720 --> 00:17:28,760 Speaker 1: I think that is really one that investors should be 291 00:17:28,800 --> 00:17:31,880 Speaker 1: asking themselves as well, right, I mean, you know, Russian assets, 292 00:17:31,880 --> 00:17:33,920 Speaker 1: as I said to the sanctions are making them very 293 00:17:33,960 --> 00:17:36,240 Speaker 1: hard to to to touch. But there are the whole 294 00:17:36,240 --> 00:17:39,280 Speaker 1: host of other assets that may be affected by what 295 00:17:39,480 --> 00:17:42,760 Speaker 1: is going on in Russia and Ukraine. Uh and there 296 00:17:42,800 --> 00:17:46,640 Speaker 1: at some point there may be a more interesting opportunity. 297 00:17:46,760 --> 00:17:50,120 Speaker 1: I think the most significant risk premium is being put 298 00:17:50,160 --> 00:17:52,800 Speaker 1: in the assets that are closest to the theater of 299 00:17:52,880 --> 00:17:56,520 Speaker 1: conflict parts of Central Eastern Europe, Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, 300 00:17:57,160 --> 00:18:00,800 Speaker 1: The equities, the currencies in those regions, and those are 301 00:18:00,800 --> 00:18:04,760 Speaker 1: places where if you saw some stabilization, some secession of 302 00:18:04,800 --> 00:18:07,399 Speaker 1: some cease fire, I think would probably see some of 303 00:18:07,440 --> 00:18:11,639 Speaker 1: the biggest recoveries and the fastest moves. Uh. And I 304 00:18:11,640 --> 00:18:14,159 Speaker 1: think then there are assets that are pretty far away 305 00:18:14,200 --> 00:18:16,760 Speaker 1: from that. You know, if you think about oil producing 306 00:18:16,800 --> 00:18:19,920 Speaker 1: countries like Colombia and the Colombian Paso or the Middle 307 00:18:19,960 --> 00:18:22,760 Speaker 1: East and oil producers the credits preds on those, I 308 00:18:22,760 --> 00:18:25,320 Speaker 1: think some of those things could be You know, I 309 00:18:25,320 --> 00:18:27,920 Speaker 1: have already been pretty resilient, but could see more out 310 00:18:27,960 --> 00:18:30,600 Speaker 1: performance in the world where the hostility sees but oil 311 00:18:30,640 --> 00:18:34,280 Speaker 1: prices are still meaningfully higher. You are an economist at 312 00:18:34,280 --> 00:18:37,719 Speaker 1: the Bank of England. You understand the interplay of oil 313 00:18:37,800 --> 00:18:43,040 Speaker 1: prices and growth and how the combat for inflation can transpire. 314 00:18:43,440 --> 00:18:45,879 Speaker 1: Do you think that markets have gotten ahead of themselves 315 00:18:46,160 --> 00:18:49,000 Speaker 1: in pricing out possible rate highs from either the Bank 316 00:18:49,040 --> 00:18:51,919 Speaker 1: of England or the ECB, or even the better reserve 317 00:18:52,040 --> 00:18:55,720 Speaker 1: on the hills of this conflict? I should say I 318 00:18:55,800 --> 00:18:58,240 Speaker 1: was about economist the Bank of England many many years ago. 319 00:18:59,080 --> 00:19:03,119 Speaker 1: Now obviously it's attist at Goldman facts, but um, look, 320 00:19:03,160 --> 00:19:05,960 Speaker 1: I think the markets are trying to price a very 321 00:19:06,000 --> 00:19:08,879 Speaker 1: uncertain situation, and I think what is really happening is 322 00:19:08,920 --> 00:19:13,199 Speaker 1: that markets are, you know, implicitly making the assumption that 323 00:19:13,320 --> 00:19:16,400 Speaker 1: the tightening in financial conditions that is needed to bring 324 00:19:16,440 --> 00:19:20,119 Speaker 1: inflation down. Some of that tightening is already being delivered 325 00:19:20,520 --> 00:19:24,080 Speaker 1: by the move higher and commodity prices and oil prices. 326 00:19:24,440 --> 00:19:26,640 Speaker 1: I think that is sort of what the market is pricing, 327 00:19:26,640 --> 00:19:29,560 Speaker 1: and I think that's why you're seeing the interest rates 328 00:19:29,560 --> 00:19:33,080 Speaker 1: the yields moved down. I think that, you know, my 329 00:19:33,680 --> 00:19:35,640 Speaker 1: our view is that you will still need to see 330 00:19:35,720 --> 00:19:39,720 Speaker 1: considerable tightening, especially in places where as I said, the 331 00:19:39,800 --> 00:19:43,320 Speaker 1: growth impact from this conflict may be relatively limited, but 332 00:19:43,400 --> 00:19:46,679 Speaker 1: the negative shock from oil prices to inflation might actually 333 00:19:46,680 --> 00:19:50,600 Speaker 1: be quite meaningful. So I it's it's understandable why markets 334 00:19:50,600 --> 00:19:52,879 Speaker 1: are doing what they're doing, but I think it may 335 00:19:52,920 --> 00:19:55,119 Speaker 1: be a bit too fast, and I think you're probably 336 00:19:55,160 --> 00:19:57,800 Speaker 1: still going to see major central banks, at least in 337 00:19:57,920 --> 00:20:01,199 Speaker 1: the near future, continue to be on a tightening trajectory. 338 00:20:01,359 --> 00:20:03,040 Speaker 1: Can act right to catch up. We're gonna get your 339 00:20:03,040 --> 00:20:05,639 Speaker 1: perspectives and really impotent thoughts on what's gonna happen with 340 00:20:05,640 --> 00:20:09,200 Speaker 1: his current state. COTTI of Gellman Sacks thank you said 341 00:20:16,119 --> 00:20:19,240 Speaker 1: right now, what we're gonna do is link a Russia 342 00:20:19,560 --> 00:20:23,080 Speaker 1: surrounded by what is at fourteen nations to in America 343 00:20:23,600 --> 00:20:27,600 Speaker 1: surrounded by two with great commonalities with Canada and Mexico. 344 00:20:28,320 --> 00:20:31,240 Speaker 1: One company that has done that over the decades in 345 00:20:31,320 --> 00:20:35,760 Speaker 1: North America is Target. Let's get your attention. Target is 346 00:20:35,840 --> 00:20:39,120 Speaker 1: beat Walmart by over six hundred basis points per year 347 00:20:39,560 --> 00:20:41,679 Speaker 1: in the last ten years in the name of Global 348 00:20:41,720 --> 00:20:46,119 Speaker 1: Wall Street. That is success. Their chief financial officer, Michael 349 00:20:46,119 --> 00:20:48,879 Speaker 1: Fidelki joins us this morning. Mike, I'm gonna cut to 350 00:20:48,920 --> 00:20:51,600 Speaker 1: the chase. The President will speak tonight on a hundred 351 00:20:51,600 --> 00:20:55,800 Speaker 1: and four hundred five dollar Brent crude. You spoke today 352 00:20:55,920 --> 00:20:59,960 Speaker 1: with twenty four dollars per hour on your wage. How 353 00:21:00,000 --> 00:21:02,000 Speaker 1: are you going to do this at twenty four dollars 354 00:21:02,000 --> 00:21:05,639 Speaker 1: an hour blended forty eight thousand dollars a year for 355 00:21:05,760 --> 00:21:10,880 Speaker 1: line employees. I'll tell you the investments that we make 356 00:21:10,880 --> 00:21:13,960 Speaker 1: in our team from my seat for the best investments 357 00:21:14,000 --> 00:21:16,160 Speaker 1: that we make, and that's been a path of investment 358 00:21:16,280 --> 00:21:17,960 Speaker 1: over years now. We laid a path to get to 359 00:21:18,000 --> 00:21:22,480 Speaker 1: a fifteen dollar starting wage back in accomplished that a 360 00:21:22,520 --> 00:21:25,640 Speaker 1: couple of years ago. We've invested in additional benefits. We've 361 00:21:25,640 --> 00:21:30,240 Speaker 1: invested in tuition free education, assistant assistance, and we see 362 00:21:30,280 --> 00:21:33,399 Speaker 1: those investments paying off. You can see it and the 363 00:21:33,400 --> 00:21:36,119 Speaker 1: results that team delivered in our quarter with growth of 364 00:21:36,200 --> 00:21:38,160 Speaker 1: nine percent because of time. I don't mean to cut 365 00:21:38,160 --> 00:21:40,080 Speaker 1: you off, but I think this is so important, Michael, 366 00:21:40,080 --> 00:21:43,560 Speaker 1: because you lead on this and you and I'm gonna say, Amazon, 367 00:21:43,680 --> 00:21:45,760 Speaker 1: Jesse and the rest are in the cross. Here's on 368 00:21:45,840 --> 00:21:48,520 Speaker 1: this are we have an arms race right now for 369 00:21:48,640 --> 00:21:53,640 Speaker 1: line employees. It's definitely a tight labor market, but our 370 00:21:53,680 --> 00:21:55,919 Speaker 1: story might look different than what you'd hear elsewhere, and 371 00:21:55,920 --> 00:21:58,840 Speaker 1: that we track our ability to attract and retain those 372 00:21:58,880 --> 00:22:02,239 Speaker 1: metrics really closely. Those metrics are stronger for us right 373 00:22:02,280 --> 00:22:05,560 Speaker 1: now than they were pre pandemic. So we see the 374 00:22:05,560 --> 00:22:08,440 Speaker 1: results of that investment over time really paying off with 375 00:22:08,480 --> 00:22:10,440 Speaker 1: a team that wants to come to work at Target 376 00:22:10,440 --> 00:22:13,800 Speaker 1: and that best team in retails delivering. Michael, this is 377 00:22:13,840 --> 00:22:15,639 Speaker 1: one side of the equation that you have a bird's 378 00:22:15,680 --> 00:22:18,639 Speaker 1: eye view on the employment aspect. The other side is 379 00:22:18,640 --> 00:22:21,880 Speaker 1: consumers willingness to keep spending at the same pace even 380 00:22:21,960 --> 00:22:24,440 Speaker 1: as they see their price of gasoline rise to the 381 00:22:24,480 --> 00:22:27,440 Speaker 1: highest level since two thousand and fourteen, even as wheat 382 00:22:27,480 --> 00:22:30,080 Speaker 1: futures arise to the highest since two thousand and eight. 383 00:22:30,359 --> 00:22:33,400 Speaker 1: How do you game this out when you talk about pricing, 384 00:22:33,440 --> 00:22:36,160 Speaker 1: when you talk about passing it on to the consumers 385 00:22:36,400 --> 00:22:39,000 Speaker 1: and your ability to do so. Is time running out 386 00:22:39,280 --> 00:22:43,080 Speaker 1: to keep passing it all on directly? Now, we certainly 387 00:22:43,119 --> 00:22:46,520 Speaker 1: see the inflationary costs pressure in the environment, but we 388 00:22:46,600 --> 00:22:50,040 Speaker 1: tackle that really through the lens of our guests. Were fortunate. 389 00:22:50,080 --> 00:22:52,680 Speaker 1: We have a lot of levers to pull within our 390 00:22:52,720 --> 00:22:56,560 Speaker 1: business to make sure that we're protecting value for our guests, 391 00:22:56,560 --> 00:22:59,600 Speaker 1: and price is the lever we pull last, not first, 392 00:23:00,160 --> 00:23:02,159 Speaker 1: and that investment in value is working. If you look 393 00:23:02,200 --> 00:23:04,760 Speaker 1: at our fourth quarter results that nine growth, it came 394 00:23:04,800 --> 00:23:09,240 Speaker 1: almost entirely from traffic. That means guests picking target more often, 395 00:23:09,280 --> 00:23:11,840 Speaker 1: whether with their footsteps or clicks to our website, and 396 00:23:12,240 --> 00:23:15,000 Speaker 1: so those investments in protecting value or paying off. Michael, 397 00:23:15,160 --> 00:23:17,119 Speaker 1: I'm asking because you sort of are at this cross 398 00:23:17,160 --> 00:23:19,119 Speaker 1: section of what we talked about every day. We're talking 399 00:23:19,119 --> 00:23:22,320 Speaker 1: about what's going on with Russia invading Ukraine, the possible 400 00:23:22,320 --> 00:23:25,840 Speaker 1: disruption of supply chains, the possible ramifications on growth of 401 00:23:25,880 --> 00:23:28,960 Speaker 1: oil prices, and I'm wondering how you factor these things 402 00:23:29,000 --> 00:23:31,480 Speaker 1: and have you been scouring through your supply chains and 403 00:23:31,520 --> 00:23:36,000 Speaker 1: looking for possible disruptions either from this or other perspective conflicts. 404 00:23:36,040 --> 00:23:37,959 Speaker 1: I mean, how does this factor in to your day 405 00:23:37,960 --> 00:23:41,320 Speaker 1: to day decision making now? As you might expect, it's 406 00:23:41,320 --> 00:23:44,080 Speaker 1: a situation we monitor really closely, and I'll start by 407 00:23:44,080 --> 00:23:46,320 Speaker 1: just saying our hearts go out to everyone impacted by 408 00:23:46,320 --> 00:23:48,639 Speaker 1: the situation in Ukraine. I know it weighs heavily on 409 00:23:48,680 --> 00:23:52,479 Speaker 1: my mind, our target team, and our guests. We're fortunate 410 00:23:52,520 --> 00:23:54,920 Speaker 1: we've got the benefit of a really sophisticated supply chain 411 00:23:55,000 --> 00:23:57,640 Speaker 1: that's navigated a lot of challenges over the last two 412 00:23:57,720 --> 00:24:01,320 Speaker 1: years incredibly well, feel really it about our inventory position 413 00:24:01,359 --> 00:24:04,480 Speaker 1: today upt to last year. That's a testament to us 414 00:24:04,480 --> 00:24:07,000 Speaker 1: working through some of those supply chain challenges, so we 415 00:24:07,040 --> 00:24:09,399 Speaker 1: should be well positioned to start the year. Have you 416 00:24:09,440 --> 00:24:11,640 Speaker 1: found that you've actually gotten a lot of market share 417 00:24:11,680 --> 00:24:15,159 Speaker 1: from smaller businesses simply because you have that ability to 418 00:24:15,240 --> 00:24:19,639 Speaker 1: really rejigger supply chains and streamline certain costs so that 419 00:24:19,720 --> 00:24:23,520 Speaker 1: you can pass it along. We look at our market 420 00:24:23,560 --> 00:24:25,600 Speaker 1: share games over the last couple of years, we see 421 00:24:25,600 --> 00:24:28,679 Speaker 1: them coming from a variety of places, and some of 422 00:24:28,720 --> 00:24:32,000 Speaker 1: that goes to, you know, the market share story by category. 423 00:24:32,080 --> 00:24:34,560 Speaker 1: As you know, we've got strength across so many categories, 424 00:24:34,640 --> 00:24:37,560 Speaker 1: from a really strong apparel business to a strong food 425 00:24:37,560 --> 00:24:40,720 Speaker 1: and beverage business, and each of those categories grew double 426 00:24:40,760 --> 00:24:42,879 Speaker 1: digits in the last year. And so the market stare 427 00:24:42,920 --> 00:24:45,600 Speaker 1: share store is a little different by category, but it's 428 00:24:45,640 --> 00:24:47,879 Speaker 1: it's a wide set of sources. Michael, big move in 429 00:24:47,920 --> 00:24:50,880 Speaker 1: a pre market today by almost eleven months to move 430 00:24:50,920 --> 00:24:53,600 Speaker 1: in fact from New York. Thank you, Michael. Michael Fowk 431 00:24:53,760 --> 00:24:57,639 Speaker 1: there of target. The target move quite sizeable in early trading, 432 00:24:57,720 --> 00:25:01,480 Speaker 1: yet today down about writing much of that and the 433 00:25:01,560 --> 00:25:06,159 Speaker 1: Eddie pot of today's session. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. 434 00:25:06,400 --> 00:25:09,800 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening. Join us live weekdays from seven to 435 00:25:09,880 --> 00:25:13,920 Speaker 1: ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio and on Bloomberg Television 436 00:25:14,280 --> 00:25:18,320 Speaker 1: each day from six to nine am for insight from 437 00:25:18,320 --> 00:25:22,879 Speaker 1: the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. And 438 00:25:22,960 --> 00:25:28,159 Speaker 1: subscribe to the Surveillance podcast on Apple podcast, SoundCloud, Bloomberg 439 00:25:28,160 --> 00:25:31,480 Speaker 1: dot com, and of course on the terminal. I'm Tom 440 00:25:31,560 --> 00:25:33,960 Speaker 1: Keene and this is Bloomberg