WEBVTT - Bloomberg Surveillance TV: May 16, 2024 0:00:02.440 --> 0:00:06.760 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 0:00:11.640 --> 0:00:15.440 This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along 0:00:15.480 --> 0:00:18.680 with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordern. Join us each day 0:00:18.720 --> 0:00:22.280 for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics 0:00:22.400 --> 0:00:24.920 from our global headquarters in New York City. We are 0:00:24.920 --> 0:00:27.680 live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine 0:00:27.720 --> 0:00:31.280 am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or 0:00:31.320 --> 0:00:33.960 anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg 0:00:34.040 --> 0:00:35.880 Terminal and the Bloomberg Business App. 0:00:36.320 --> 0:00:38.800 Definitely my highlight of the day, Jamie Diamond, a lot 0:00:38.840 --> 0:00:42.040 to talk about. JP Morgan Chare and chief Executive, Thank 0:00:42.040 --> 0:00:43.760 you so much for hosting us again again at your 0:00:43.800 --> 0:00:47.319 Global Market conference. What's market turbulence looking like right now? 0:00:47.360 --> 0:00:50.159 So we have the CPI print yesterday, market's rally. Are 0:00:50.159 --> 0:00:51.479 there getting ahead of themselves? 0:00:51.600 --> 0:00:56.120 Yeah? So I wouldn't call it turbulence. And we've we've 0:00:56.120 --> 0:00:59.000 had good, healthy markets for quite a while. You know, 0:00:59.160 --> 0:01:02.080 they kind of predicting a soft landing. And you see 0:01:02.080 --> 0:01:03.959 that in both dock prizes, which are kind of high 0:01:04.319 --> 0:01:06.640 credit breads, which are kind of low markets, which are 0:01:06.720 --> 0:01:09.160 kind of wide open. That's all good. It doesn't tell 0:01:09.160 --> 0:01:11.080 what the future is going to be. That good point 0:01:11.080 --> 0:01:13.319 a lot of times in history where that was true 0:01:13.600 --> 0:01:16.280 and the next year wasn't true. And so you know, 0:01:16.280 --> 0:01:18.279 we'll see. I don't pay as much attention to monthly 0:01:18.360 --> 0:01:19.560 numbers as most people. 0:01:19.319 --> 0:01:20.759 Do, I know. So what do you think the future 0:01:20.840 --> 0:01:21.640 is for inflation? 0:01:21.680 --> 0:01:23.440 And probably more worried about it. I mean, you know, 0:01:23.440 --> 0:01:26.319 we've had very big fiscal deficits, and you know, I 0:01:26.319 --> 0:01:28.720 think the underlying inflation may not go a way the 0:01:28.720 --> 0:01:31.240 way people expect it to. And I look at the 0:01:31.280 --> 0:01:33.000 future like a lot of things we look at a 0:01:33.080 --> 0:01:36.959 kind of inflation are the green economy, the remilitarization of 0:01:36.959 --> 0:01:42.600 the world, the infrastructure requirements, the restructuring of trade, fiscal deficits. 0:01:42.800 --> 0:01:44.760 So I think there are a lot of inflationary forces 0:01:44.800 --> 0:01:46.760 in front of us that you know, may keep it 0:01:46.800 --> 0:01:49.200 a little bit higher than people expect. So the surprise 0:01:49.280 --> 0:01:51.880 would be rates are higher, inflation a little bit higher, 0:01:52.520 --> 0:01:55.680 and maybe that will slow growth. And obviously the geo 0:01:55.760 --> 0:01:58.800 politics is a whole different issue that can that could 0:01:58.840 --> 0:02:01.480 be determinative in what comedy does next year. And we 0:02:01.600 --> 0:02:02.680 just we're just not gonna know. 0:02:02.840 --> 0:02:04.840 But does that mean you think it's fifty to fifty 0:02:04.880 --> 0:02:08.080 whether the FED cuts or hikes next time. 0:02:08.919 --> 0:02:11.600 I really don't pay that much tention to that. The 0:02:11.680 --> 0:02:14.720 FED will have to follow the data, and I don't 0:02:14.720 --> 0:02:16.440 know what the data is going to say. But they 0:02:16.680 --> 0:02:18.280 I think, you know, they are doing the right to 0:02:18.280 --> 0:02:20.760 be patient right now, see what's going to happen. They 0:02:20.760 --> 0:02:22.480 may not know for a couple of months, but. 0:02:22.600 --> 0:02:24.640 No big correction. And if you don't pay, you know, 0:02:24.680 --> 0:02:26.600 that much attention to it, it means you're not worried about 0:02:26.600 --> 0:02:27.400 it anything, not worried. 0:02:27.440 --> 0:02:29.880 I just said stocks are very high. I think the 0:02:29.960 --> 0:02:31.840 chance of inflation staying high or a race going up 0:02:31.919 --> 0:02:34.160 or higher than other people of things. So I think 0:02:34.160 --> 0:02:36.880 the chance, my view is whatever the world is pricing 0:02:36.880 --> 0:02:39.080 it for a soft landing, I think it's probably half that. 0:02:39.720 --> 0:02:41.720 I think the chance of something going wrong is higher than. 0:02:41.680 --> 0:02:45.880 People think in the US globally in the. 0:02:45.880 --> 0:02:47.519 US, but also that could affect globally. 0:02:47.600 --> 0:02:50.239 Yeah, and so that what does that mean for markets? 0:02:50.760 --> 0:02:53.840 There'd be down and credits president've got gap out? 0:02:54.560 --> 0:02:55.840 So why is the market not pricing that? 0:02:55.880 --> 0:02:58.959 In not a happy talk? 0:03:00.080 --> 0:03:01.320 Where does that happy talk come? 0:03:01.360 --> 0:03:06.240 From low rates, central banks and reduced rates. You know, 0:03:06.360 --> 0:03:10.480 maybe the geopolitical things disseminate, don't cause problems, and so 0:03:11.360 --> 0:03:14.240 you know the future isn't predictable like that. So you know, 0:03:14.440 --> 0:03:17.480 I'm a student of history. I've watched all the inflection points. 0:03:17.639 --> 0:03:19.920 You go back, and my dad was a stockbroker. I 0:03:20.040 --> 0:03:22.520 go back to the booming market of seventy two and 0:03:22.560 --> 0:03:25.880 the collapse of seventy four, the healthy markets of eighty 0:03:25.960 --> 0:03:28.440 the collapse of eighty two, you know, the ninth the 0:03:28.480 --> 0:03:31.440 eighty seven market crash, the nineteen ninety real estate crash, 0:03:31.919 --> 0:03:34.359 and almost all of them were not predicted the year before. 0:03:34.600 --> 0:03:36.720 So I look at these factors that drive these things 0:03:36.760 --> 0:03:39.160 are not always known. As a company, we prepare for 0:03:39.160 --> 0:03:41.520 all of us. We can serve all our colis regardless. 0:03:41.520 --> 0:03:44.160 But what do you see as the main stress right now? 0:03:44.200 --> 0:03:46.960 Because if it's geopolitics, we talk about it, it's just 0:03:47.000 --> 0:03:50.080 not really priced it. Where does where? Does is it distress? 0:03:50.240 --> 0:03:53.120 Is it something actually going under that you worry about, 0:03:53.240 --> 0:03:55.360 or just a multiple factors coming in at the same time. 0:03:55.480 --> 0:03:58.680 I think, well, geopolitics could create the main stress that 0:03:58.680 --> 0:04:03.760 we're worried about. Oil and gas prices are trade alliances. 0:04:05.520 --> 0:04:08.240 But I think the surprise would be higher rates because 0:04:08.240 --> 0:04:11.080 inflation didn't go down. Then inflation has been stubborn and 0:04:11.120 --> 0:04:14.080 maybe bounces up next year. I think inflation next year 0:04:14.080 --> 0:04:16.080 may be in the cards, may have nothing to do 0:04:16.120 --> 0:04:18.680 with what you're seeing today. So that to me is 0:04:18.720 --> 0:04:23.000 the surprise. If you at higher rates and God forbid stagflation, Yeah, 0:04:23.040 --> 0:04:26.440 you'll see stress in real estate and leverage companies and 0:04:26.520 --> 0:04:29.120 some private credit and things like that. 0:04:29.360 --> 0:04:31.200 So it's unpredictability than you normal. 0:04:31.920 --> 0:04:33.599 I think it's been the enormous of my whole life, 0:04:33.800 --> 0:04:34.080 has it. 0:04:34.440 --> 0:04:38.440 It's not worse now what happens between China and the US, 0:04:38.440 --> 0:04:41.480 and what does that mean for your appetite of being China. 0:04:41.640 --> 0:04:44.400 Yeah, So the geopolitical situation is very tense because the 0:04:44.560 --> 0:04:48.200 more the Ukraine and Russia I ran, the terrors activities 0:04:48.240 --> 0:04:52.360 in Israel, North Korea, nuclear black mail, We've never had 0:04:52.480 --> 0:04:55.240 nuclear blackmail before. And this is of course affecting our 0:04:55.279 --> 0:04:58.000 relationship with China, and you know, it's gonna be hard 0:04:58.040 --> 0:04:59.920 to have a great relation with China. The Ukraine War, 0:05:00.200 --> 0:05:03.800 we're kind of different sides of that. And put Taiwan aside, 0:05:04.120 --> 0:05:06.279 having said that, I think it's the right thing for 0:05:06.360 --> 0:05:10.920 America to fully and deeply engage with China, you know, competitively. 0:05:11.440 --> 0:05:13.480 You know, every nation is going to do. It's in 0:05:13.520 --> 0:05:16.919 their own interest in national security, social America. We should 0:05:16.920 --> 0:05:20.359 define that fairly improperly. If it's unfair trade, you know, 0:05:20.600 --> 0:05:23.240 negotiate that or do whatever you need to do. But 0:05:23.360 --> 0:05:25.719 the engagement is the right thing to do. China is 0:05:25.720 --> 0:05:27.800 not the natural enemy the United States. They have a 0:05:27.839 --> 0:05:30.760 lot of their own problems. So you know, to me, 0:05:30.880 --> 0:05:33.280 we could work together as best we can, and then 0:05:33.279 --> 0:05:38.160 we have common interests climate, anti nuclear, pferation, anti terrorism. 0:05:38.240 --> 0:05:40.320 What does it mean for bank working in China? Actually? 0:05:40.360 --> 0:05:42.159 Given all of this solatility. 0:05:42.120 --> 0:05:44.320 Cautious I mean, you know China, if you look at 0:05:44.400 --> 0:05:46.200 China from a risk of war basis, it used to 0:05:46.240 --> 0:05:49.200 be very good. It's not so good anymore because all 0:05:49.240 --> 0:05:52.520 these things can go wrong. And remember we bank I mean, 0:05:52.560 --> 0:05:55.839 I've got the number, but fifteen hundred multinationals in China. 0:05:56.120 --> 0:05:58.080 They're not leaving China. So we're going to serve our 0:05:58.080 --> 0:06:00.680 clients there. We're just much more cogniti that the risk 0:06:00.760 --> 0:06:03.000 is higher. I might put Hong Kong in that bucket two. 0:06:03.440 --> 0:06:04.880 You know, we look kind of look at China, Hong 0:06:04.960 --> 0:06:07.400 Kong as one at this point from a risk standpoint, 0:06:07.760 --> 0:06:08.120 what does. 0:06:08.000 --> 0:06:10.200 A Trump administration mean for the US economy? 0:06:11.040 --> 0:06:11.440 I don't know. 0:06:12.640 --> 0:06:16.080 You know, they're why because it's unfrectable, or because we're 0:06:16.120 --> 0:06:18.120 too soon to actually try trying to figure out the 0:06:18.120 --> 0:06:20.279 policies that he laves it in place. 0:06:20.760 --> 0:06:23.520 So if you look at history, who was elected president 0:06:23.600 --> 0:06:26.760 may not necessarily effect the next year. That's kind of 0:06:26.800 --> 0:06:29.039 like we're a big tanker and that's going to happen. 0:06:29.440 --> 0:06:32.240 I think the much more important thing is what we 0:06:32.360 --> 0:06:35.600 do in the geopolitical situation. You know, I've always been 0:06:35.680 --> 0:06:38.640 quite clear that American leadership is provided to keep the 0:06:38.640 --> 0:06:43.000 world free and safe for democracy, and that means economic alliances, 0:06:43.000 --> 0:06:45.120 which includes trade. By the way, I think we should 0:06:45.240 --> 0:06:49.040 spend more time in trade. It means NATO. It means 0:06:49.120 --> 0:06:52.800 that Russia should not win in Ukraine, because if they do, 0:06:52.920 --> 0:06:55.040 I think it can tear us under this Western world. 0:06:55.279 --> 0:06:58.240 I know you've ruled out being Treasury secretary. Why what 0:06:58.279 --> 0:06:59.880 would it take to get you into politics. 0:07:00.560 --> 0:07:03.320 I don't think I'm suited for politics. I love my job, 0:07:03.360 --> 0:07:05.040 you know, and so I'm not sure I want to 0:07:05.080 --> 0:07:07.200 do something like that, and I can hope even. 0:07:07.040 --> 0:07:09.440 If you got the call, would it be hard to 0:07:09.480 --> 0:07:10.440 say no, I don't know. 0:07:11.400 --> 0:07:13.440 Probably yes. I love my job and I have no 0:07:13.520 --> 0:07:14.840 inis in leaving and doing N ANDL. 0:07:14.960 --> 0:07:17.800 So what we're in France at a global markets conference. 0:07:17.880 --> 0:07:20.640 What are you expecting from Bozel three? What will j 0:07:20.800 --> 0:07:22.640 Powell put in place? And you will book. 0:07:22.680 --> 0:07:25.000 I should mention, by the way, because President McCrone has 0:07:25.040 --> 0:07:27.880 done an outstanding job here. Pro Business got us to 0:07:27.920 --> 0:07:30.320 move our trading floors here. You know he wants to 0:07:30.360 --> 0:07:32.840 grow his economy. There's much more innovation. We had a 0:07:33.000 --> 0:07:36.160 thing lands by a lot of innovation. So look Basil three, 0:07:36.360 --> 0:07:39.280 We've been quite clear. We thought it was excessive, not 0:07:39.400 --> 0:07:41.480 well thought through. I would love to know what the 0:07:41.560 --> 0:07:44.480 endgame is. What are they trying to accomplish with private credit? 0:07:44.480 --> 0:07:46.480 What are they trying to accomplish with Like even the 0:07:46.520 --> 0:07:48.800 other day, eighty percent or more has left the system, 0:07:48.920 --> 0:07:51.600 and now the government's talking about having a bailout system 0:07:51.600 --> 0:07:54.120 for mortgage companies because they're no longer in a bank 0:07:54.160 --> 0:07:56.880 that has the ability to provide liquidity in tough markets. 0:07:57.320 --> 0:07:59.000 That would be the same thing in market making, so 0:07:59.360 --> 0:08:01.320 they're looking at at it. You know, I trust J. 0:08:01.480 --> 0:08:04.360 Powell to look at and analyze what they need to do, 0:08:04.400 --> 0:08:05.720 how they need to do it. The other thing, which 0:08:05.720 --> 0:08:08.920 I'm not sure Europeans know, I have no idea, and 0:08:09.360 --> 0:08:11.200 it may end up in a lawsuit or something like that. 0:08:11.280 --> 0:08:14.040 But but the amazing thing to me is that America 0:08:14.120 --> 0:08:17.320 ended up the end game thirty percent more capital than 0:08:17.320 --> 0:08:21.240 the European Bank in America. And I just why we 0:08:21.600 --> 0:08:24.160 argue about international standards and then we simply don't do them. 0:08:24.400 --> 0:08:26.800 And also I think the regulation answer the question what 0:08:26.840 --> 0:08:29.240 do you want how do you want the system to work? 0:08:29.320 --> 0:08:31.680 Is do you want it to put private credit a 0:08:31.720 --> 0:08:33.839 public credit? Do you want moretage out of the banks 0:08:34.120 --> 0:08:36.640 just dictated? If that's the goal is just dictated. If 0:08:36.640 --> 0:08:39.040 you don't want leverage land the bank just dictated, you know. 0:08:39.120 --> 0:08:40.920 And I think you know, we are guardian in the 0:08:40.960 --> 0:08:43.320 financial system. You know, we bank, you know, we bank 0:08:43.360 --> 0:08:46.199 one hundred countries and you know we're on the ground 0:08:46.200 --> 0:08:50.599 of sixty countries. You know, we do great work for cities, schools, states, hospitals, 0:08:50.600 --> 0:08:54.360 soul or whin climate. Middle market companies is that what 0:08:54.440 --> 0:08:56.880 they don't want or they do want, you know, they want. 0:08:56.720 --> 0:08:59.000 To make it more expensive. Are they to figure it out? 0:08:59.040 --> 0:09:00.719 I think they've got to figure out. I don't think 0:09:00.720 --> 0:09:02.640 it's quite clear from any now. So they did. You 0:09:02.640 --> 0:09:05.520 guys should read it and write about it. There was 0:09:05.640 --> 0:09:09.719 no detailed announced about cost benefit, what they're trying to accomplish, 0:09:10.040 --> 0:09:11.040 what the outcome will be. 0:09:11.240 --> 0:09:14.040 That's why we're asking you, Jamie, talk to me about France. 0:09:14.120 --> 0:09:18.160 So you're positive on the President Malcamoy. Also know that 0:09:18.160 --> 0:09:20.080 you were at the Chiefs France event on Monday. If 0:09:20.080 --> 0:09:22.680 he relacks labor laws, would you hire more in this country? 0:09:22.920 --> 0:09:24.800 He did relax labor laws, but if he relax the 0:09:24.880 --> 0:09:27.880 more possibly. You know, we now have a thousand people here. 0:09:28.120 --> 0:09:30.480 We have large trading floors here with Strade. I've got 0:09:30.520 --> 0:09:33.000 the number five or eight, five or six or seven 0:09:33.000 --> 0:09:36.079 eight hundred million dollars a day. When you have a 0:09:36.160 --> 0:09:39.760 thousand people, you tend to hire more and more technology more, 0:09:39.800 --> 0:09:41.720 and that's been true for us so that I've been 0:09:41.720 --> 0:09:44.120 at JP Moore and once you have a very competent 0:09:44.160 --> 0:09:47.079 group of people and you have hiring capability and friends, 0:09:47.080 --> 0:09:49.280 you tend to do more things there. So my view 0:09:49.320 --> 0:09:51.160 is we will be doing more things here, and it 0:09:51.360 --> 0:09:53.880 was the tax lad they put in place, the regulations 0:09:53.920 --> 0:09:56.839 they put in place, the labor flexibility they put in place. 0:09:57.120 --> 0:10:00.320 Those things do make a difference, and very importantly just 0:10:00.360 --> 0:10:03.280 lift up JP Morgan here. We pay a lot of 0:10:03.360 --> 0:10:06.560 taxes here which help lift up all citizens. I don't 0:10:06.559 --> 0:10:09.240 think President macrohane did that for JP Morgan. He did 0:10:09.320 --> 0:10:12.199 because he knows his country needs to grow, bring it innovation, 0:10:12.559 --> 0:10:14.880 and that's that's how you build a better country. 0:10:15.040 --> 0:10:17.200 So the chief executive is the largest wealth fund in 0:10:17.240 --> 0:10:19.560 the world, says that actually America is doing much better 0:10:19.559 --> 0:10:23.240 because Americans are less lazy or work harder than the Europeans. 0:10:23.280 --> 0:10:24.840 I mean, is that fair? Is that regulation? 0:10:25.120 --> 0:10:27.719 I hate total blanking statements like that. I know a 0:10:27.720 --> 0:10:30.720 lot of Europeans who work hard. But I think when 0:10:30.720 --> 0:10:32.400 you see the things about work hours, I think it 0:10:32.480 --> 0:10:37.560 is somewhat true. Americans are hard working. Anywhere you go around, 0:10:37.559 --> 0:10:39.960 Americas are hard working. But I see that here too, 0:10:40.679 --> 0:10:42.920 I don't think, and the innovation people you meet through 0:10:42.920 --> 0:10:45.000 working just as hard as the innovation people in the 0:10:45.120 --> 0:10:45.800 United States. 0:10:46.280 --> 0:10:48.760 So you also in terms of headcount in the UK, 0:10:49.280 --> 0:10:51.280 I think it's at the highest that it's ever been. 0:10:51.400 --> 0:10:53.760 And you're also doing you're giving money to try and 0:10:53.840 --> 0:10:57.840 retrain and you've recently met with possibly the next Prime minister. 0:10:58.040 --> 0:10:59.920 See so far advance in the polls. What do you think? 0:11:01.000 --> 0:11:03.720 Yeah, look, I like the fact that both the Conservative 0:11:03.760 --> 0:11:08.480 and the Labor governments are talking about pro business, simpler regulations, 0:11:09.080 --> 0:11:13.160 getting more innovation in the country, becoming competitive, and we 0:11:13.200 --> 0:11:16.240 all need like we all have too much debt. Growth 0:11:16.320 --> 0:11:19.800 is the best anecdote for antidote for everything, and so 0:11:19.960 --> 0:11:22.520 having a growth strategy is good for a country, and 0:11:22.559 --> 0:11:25.200 it's good for the lower income people. And this training 0:11:25.240 --> 0:11:28.080 stuff is maybe the most important to get training jobs, 0:11:28.480 --> 0:11:30.840 that first job as a first run in a ladder, 0:11:31.080 --> 0:11:34.880 creates dignity, you know, more home household formation, and I 0:11:34.920 --> 0:11:36.640 think countries have to do more of that because if 0:11:36.679 --> 0:11:38.680 they don't, you know, you can have a tough time. 0:11:38.880 --> 0:11:41.000 But do you think the UK com you will change 0:11:41.040 --> 0:11:41.640 under Labor? 0:11:42.840 --> 0:11:45.959 I don't know yet, but I was happy with what 0:11:46.000 --> 0:11:47.920 they were talking about. We had Rachel Reeves come to 0:11:47.920 --> 0:11:51.439 our conference too, that they're all talking from the playbook. 0:11:51.679 --> 0:11:56.920 We need growth, simpler regulations, more capital formation, more capital investment, 0:11:56.920 --> 0:12:00.280 need proper taxation because that's the way to help whole 0:12:00.280 --> 0:12:02.640 country and all our citizens. So that is what we 0:12:02.640 --> 0:12:03.360 shall all be doing. 0:12:04.360 --> 0:12:07.360 Jamie Denman, we talk around, you know, India all the time. 0:12:07.440 --> 0:12:10.160 Is this a decade for India and does it somehow 0:12:10.200 --> 0:12:13.280 counterbaland China for you know, world growth? 0:12:14.240 --> 0:12:17.160 Yeah, Look, I think India has done a very good job. 0:12:17.640 --> 0:12:19.319 And you know when you look at India, yes, it 0:12:19.640 --> 0:12:22.360 should have a very bright future. I'm not saying as 0:12:22.400 --> 0:12:25.120 account in a China, but a very bright future. And 0:12:25.160 --> 0:12:27.280 I think we shall be reaching out to India that 0:12:27.360 --> 0:12:29.200 you know, they have to stay not aligned because they're 0:12:29.280 --> 0:12:31.240 kind of where they are in the world between Russia 0:12:31.240 --> 0:12:33.680 and China. But you know, they're a democracy, they're a 0:12:33.760 --> 0:12:36.720 natural friend of America and the Western world, and we 0:12:36.720 --> 0:12:38.599 shall all be helping them. And they've they've made a 0:12:38.640 --> 0:12:43.360 lot of changes there, infrastructure, transfer payment, seven hundred million 0:12:43.360 --> 0:12:45.480 people bank accounts that are going to be very good 0:12:45.520 --> 0:12:46.160 for that country. 0:12:46.360 --> 0:12:48.119 So what does that mean for JP Morgan. 0:12:48.320 --> 0:12:50.360 Well, we're not we're not in the retail business there, 0:12:50.360 --> 0:12:53.120 but we will be in. We have sixty thousand employees there. 0:12:53.160 --> 0:12:57.920 We got big campuses, high technology, uh, and we're expanding 0:12:57.920 --> 0:13:01.199 our trading, our research, our investment banking. Yeah, we're there 0:13:01.200 --> 0:13:01.800 at a big time. 0:13:02.520 --> 0:13:03.880 Can you talk to me a little bit about JP 0:13:03.960 --> 0:13:05.640 Morgan and how I mean you've had a number of 0:13:05.720 --> 0:13:08.679 high profile departures. How does that change actually the way 0:13:08.679 --> 0:13:11.640 you focus your business and how you run things going forwards? 0:13:11.679 --> 0:13:12.120 Not at all? 0:13:12.679 --> 0:13:16.000 Nothing zero. If you were to buy anything, what would 0:13:16.000 --> 0:13:16.320 you buy? 0:13:16.440 --> 0:13:20.840 Oh that's different. Look we have we can't buy banks. 0:13:20.840 --> 0:13:21.440 You do know that? 0:13:21.840 --> 0:13:24.560 So you know you could buy your European bank, could you? 0:13:25.600 --> 0:13:29.400 I wouldn't even try. I think the American relgud hate it. 0:13:29.440 --> 0:13:31.600 I think the regulators he would hate it. Even if 0:13:31.640 --> 0:13:33.640 they said go ahead and do it, I'd probably be 0:13:33.679 --> 0:13:35.839 in courts and things for a year and a half. 0:13:36.200 --> 0:13:38.880 Huge distraction in my own company. I'd rather just say 0:13:38.960 --> 0:13:41.840 we want to add clients in this country, and clients 0:13:41.880 --> 0:13:44.360 and that kind of add bankers and technology and branches. 0:13:44.679 --> 0:13:45.840 Just a better way for us to grow. 0:13:45.880 --> 0:13:47.520 Okay, But if there's a if you could buy anything, 0:13:47.559 --> 0:13:50.320 I mean not about I tell you, but you were 0:13:50.360 --> 0:13:51.240 thinking of something. 0:13:51.080 --> 0:13:53.600 Yeah, we always look at stuff. Yeah, so we're not 0:13:53.640 --> 0:13:55.760 looking at any major acquisition or anything like that. 0:13:55.880 --> 0:13:56.480 Technology. 0:13:56.520 --> 0:13:58.320 You know, if you look who we're doing. We're adding 0:13:58.559 --> 0:14:01.520 literally and sort we have yesterday, next week. We're adding 0:14:01.800 --> 0:14:05.160 retail and wholesale branches. We're adding them in the United States. 0:14:05.160 --> 0:14:08.040 We're almost all the major hundred cities there now. We're 0:14:08.040 --> 0:14:11.760 adding commercial banking all over Europe and Asia. We're adding 0:14:12.000 --> 0:14:15.880 technology around payments and even the blockchain called honorx to 0:14:15.960 --> 0:14:19.520 move data and maybe move money one day. We're constantly investing. 0:14:19.560 --> 0:14:22.040 We have two hundred people, two thousand people, AI and 0:14:22.200 --> 0:14:25.200 machine learning for use cases on the way to probably AID. 0:14:25.320 --> 0:14:28.280 I know I speak in five years. How much bigger 0:14:28.320 --> 0:14:29.040 and how much different? 0:14:29.080 --> 0:14:32.600 Probably be speaking to a fake diamond who's just answering 0:14:32.680 --> 0:14:34.160 question n avatar an avatar. 0:14:34.280 --> 0:14:36.120 Yeah, do you think about technology a lot? 0:14:36.240 --> 0:14:38.600 Yes, all the time. Every meeting we have. This has 0:14:38.600 --> 0:14:41.040 been true my whole life. When we have any management meeting, 0:14:41.280 --> 0:14:44.560 your technology jets on the table that includes AI, cloud, 0:14:45.760 --> 0:14:48.720 just more analytics. What are you doing to do things better, faster, 0:14:48.800 --> 0:14:53.320 quicker for clients digital huge amount of digital services, integrating 0:14:53.360 --> 0:14:54.960 them better or a mating them better. 0:14:55.040 --> 0:14:57.280 So that would I mean that will change? I guess 0:14:57.320 --> 0:14:59.880 see the heart of banking. Does that mean that you 0:15:00.000 --> 0:15:03.440 we'll see more winners? Than losers because of the technological eventments. 0:15:03.520 --> 0:15:07.080 So technology has always changed the heart of banking, moving money, 0:15:07.120 --> 0:15:10.560 holding money, advising money, radio. That won't change, and you 0:15:10.600 --> 0:15:14.080 have to do that according to rules, laws, regulations by country. 0:15:14.480 --> 0:15:16.400 What it will change is how you deliver it. So 0:15:16.480 --> 0:15:17.960 like right now you go on your phone, you can 0:15:18.040 --> 0:15:20.840 move money and buy stocks. That wasn't true twenty years ago. 0:15:21.200 --> 0:15:24.160 So yes, everything you do will change to the technology. 0:15:24.440 --> 0:15:27.760 But you'll still have to move money, budget, raise money, 0:15:28.440 --> 0:15:32.280 make investments, et cetera. So you know, the core won't change, 0:15:32.760 --> 0:15:35.640 but will it change. Regulations may change that too, obviously, so. 0:15:35.840 --> 0:15:39.040 In the US. So again, would a Trump presidency be 0:15:39.160 --> 0:15:41.760 more favorable to banks when it comes to regulation? 0:15:42.800 --> 0:15:46.520 You know, I don't know. I mean, you know, I 0:15:46.680 --> 0:15:49.680 am unhappy with the amount of rules and regulations coming 0:15:49.680 --> 0:15:53.200 out today. I don't know what a second administration of 0:15:53.320 --> 0:15:56.800 either one would do. I'm hopeful that they focus on growth. 0:15:57.000 --> 0:15:59.280 Wh's good for the citizens, it's good for the country, 0:16:00.160 --> 0:16:02.880 and I would help anyone I can to do that 0:16:02.920 --> 0:16:05.560 for my country. I'm quite patriotic about that. And I 0:16:05.560 --> 0:16:07.800 do think you need a service. I think you needed 0:16:07.960 --> 0:16:08.880 no helping. 0:16:08.920 --> 0:16:12.000 Helping as a bank, you it's good to get that clearer. 0:16:22.360 --> 0:16:24.440 The friend of ours in this program joined us. Now 0:16:24.440 --> 0:16:27.440 for more, Mike Collins, let's start with yesterday and talk 0:16:27.440 --> 0:16:29.760 about what that data means going forward from here. 0:16:30.960 --> 0:16:34.160 Yeah, Jonathan, good, good morning, Thanks for having me again. 0:16:34.680 --> 0:16:34.880 Yeah. 0:16:35.000 --> 0:16:38.440 I think we're just moving in the direction we've been expecting, right, which. 0:16:38.240 --> 0:16:41.680 Is slight moderation in growth down. 0:16:41.480 --> 0:16:44.280 Toward two percent, maybe a little bit below two percent 0:16:44.440 --> 0:16:48.920 this year, and a continued moderation in inflation. I mean, 0:16:48.920 --> 0:16:51.640 if you strip out we're back to stripping out shelter again, right, 0:16:51.680 --> 0:16:55.840 because that continues to be sticky running, you know, closer 0:16:55.880 --> 0:16:58.160 to six percent than two or three. 0:16:58.160 --> 0:17:00.120 If you strip that out, both had. 0:17:00.080 --> 0:17:03.280 Line and core CPI year over year now are back 0:17:03.280 --> 0:17:06.639 in the low to mid two. So we're moving in 0:17:06.680 --> 0:17:10.760 the right direction. That's our expectation that the shelter component 0:17:11.040 --> 0:17:14.720 will probably get cut in half as the year goes on, 0:17:14.840 --> 0:17:18.560 from close to six to closer to three. So I 0:17:18.560 --> 0:17:21.280 think it's pretty good news on all front. The question is, 0:17:21.320 --> 0:17:24.280 as you heard from from Williams this morning, you know, 0:17:24.359 --> 0:17:26.879 why does the FED need to do anything. I mean, 0:17:26.920 --> 0:17:29.760 we're in the zero to two cut camp now, as 0:17:29.800 --> 0:17:32.520 you just indicated, and I don't know. 0:17:32.560 --> 0:17:33.960 I mean, I think I think zero. 0:17:34.320 --> 0:17:36.840 Is probably the highest probability of a zero one or 0:17:36.840 --> 0:17:39.280 two if you had to really push me on it. 0:17:39.840 --> 0:17:43.040 You know, the FED'SMO historically has been sit on your hands, 0:17:43.160 --> 0:17:45.800 don't do anything until you're really forced to move, until 0:17:45.800 --> 0:17:49.760 the data really points hard in one direction or the other. 0:17:49.840 --> 0:17:51.720 And it is not doing that, Mike, I want to 0:17:51.760 --> 0:17:53.240 push you on it. I've got a quote in front 0:17:53.240 --> 0:17:56.240 of me from you at the start of April. You 0:17:56.280 --> 0:17:59.600 said this, the economy continues to be solid, Inflation continues 0:17:59.640 --> 0:18:01.600 to be stayed ken well above their target, the labor 0:18:01.640 --> 0:18:04.600 market is still rock solid, financial conditions to the easiest 0:18:04.600 --> 0:18:07.119 they've been since the Fett sneid hiking. Why would you 0:18:07.160 --> 0:18:10.600 cut interest rates with that backdrop? Mike, is that quote 0:18:10.680 --> 0:18:13.159 still your quote right now? Would you say exactly the 0:18:13.200 --> 0:18:13.680 same thing? 0:18:15.080 --> 0:18:16.000 Absolutely? You know? 0:18:16.080 --> 0:18:18.960 I mean now, Powell is a dove, right, he is 0:18:19.000 --> 0:18:22.480 a labor market economist, kind of trained under Yellen. 0:18:22.600 --> 0:18:23.639 That's his that's his mo. 0:18:23.920 --> 0:18:29.840 He's very sensitive to getting pushed from the left about 0:18:29.840 --> 0:18:33.720 the job market. I mean, if things change, and things 0:18:33.720 --> 0:18:36.120 can change rapidly, as we all know, Jonathan, if things 0:18:36.200 --> 0:18:40.280 change in the labor market really starts to weaken over 0:18:40.320 --> 0:18:43.000 the course of the year, then sure, I mean a 0:18:43.040 --> 0:18:46.720