1 00:00:02,440 --> 00:00:06,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 2 00:00:11,640 --> 00:00:15,440 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along 3 00:00:15,480 --> 00:00:18,680 Speaker 2: with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordern. Join us each day 4 00:00:18,720 --> 00:00:22,280 Speaker 2: for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics 5 00:00:22,400 --> 00:00:24,920 Speaker 2: from our global headquarters in New York City. We are 6 00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:27,680 Speaker 2: live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine 7 00:00:27,720 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 2: am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or 8 00:00:31,320 --> 00:00:33,960 Speaker 2: anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg 9 00:00:34,040 --> 00:00:35,880 Speaker 2: Terminal and the Bloomberg Business App. 10 00:00:36,320 --> 00:00:38,800 Speaker 3: Definitely my highlight of the day, Jamie Diamond, a lot 11 00:00:38,840 --> 00:00:42,040 Speaker 3: to talk about. JP Morgan Chare and chief Executive, Thank 12 00:00:42,040 --> 00:00:43,760 Speaker 3: you so much for hosting us again again at your 13 00:00:43,800 --> 00:00:47,319 Speaker 3: Global Market conference. What's market turbulence looking like right now? 14 00:00:47,360 --> 00:00:50,159 Speaker 3: So we have the CPI print yesterday, market's rally. Are 15 00:00:50,159 --> 00:00:51,479 Speaker 3: there getting ahead of themselves? 16 00:00:51,600 --> 00:00:56,120 Speaker 4: Yeah? So I wouldn't call it turbulence. And we've we've 17 00:00:56,120 --> 00:00:59,000 Speaker 4: had good, healthy markets for quite a while. You know, 18 00:00:59,160 --> 00:01:02,080 Speaker 4: they kind of predicting a soft landing. And you see 19 00:01:02,080 --> 00:01:03,959 Speaker 4: that in both dock prizes, which are kind of high 20 00:01:04,319 --> 00:01:06,640 Speaker 4: credit breads, which are kind of low markets, which are 21 00:01:06,720 --> 00:01:09,160 Speaker 4: kind of wide open. That's all good. It doesn't tell 22 00:01:09,160 --> 00:01:11,080 Speaker 4: what the future is going to be. That good point 23 00:01:11,080 --> 00:01:13,319 Speaker 4: a lot of times in history where that was true 24 00:01:13,600 --> 00:01:16,280 Speaker 4: and the next year wasn't true. And so you know, 25 00:01:16,280 --> 00:01:18,279 Speaker 4: we'll see. I don't pay as much attention to monthly 26 00:01:18,360 --> 00:01:19,560 Speaker 4: numbers as most people. 27 00:01:19,319 --> 00:01:20,759 Speaker 3: Do, I know. So what do you think the future 28 00:01:20,840 --> 00:01:21,640 Speaker 3: is for inflation? 29 00:01:21,680 --> 00:01:23,440 Speaker 4: And probably more worried about it. I mean, you know, 30 00:01:23,440 --> 00:01:26,319 Speaker 4: we've had very big fiscal deficits, and you know, I 31 00:01:26,319 --> 00:01:28,720 Speaker 4: think the underlying inflation may not go a way the 32 00:01:28,720 --> 00:01:31,240 Speaker 4: way people expect it to. And I look at the 33 00:01:31,280 --> 00:01:33,000 Speaker 4: future like a lot of things we look at a 34 00:01:33,080 --> 00:01:36,959 Speaker 4: kind of inflation are the green economy, the remilitarization of 35 00:01:36,959 --> 00:01:42,600 Speaker 4: the world, the infrastructure requirements, the restructuring of trade, fiscal deficits. 36 00:01:42,800 --> 00:01:44,760 Speaker 4: So I think there are a lot of inflationary forces 37 00:01:44,800 --> 00:01:46,760 Speaker 4: in front of us that you know, may keep it 38 00:01:46,800 --> 00:01:49,200 Speaker 4: a little bit higher than people expect. So the surprise 39 00:01:49,280 --> 00:01:51,880 Speaker 4: would be rates are higher, inflation a little bit higher, 40 00:01:52,520 --> 00:01:55,680 Speaker 4: and maybe that will slow growth. And obviously the geo 41 00:01:55,760 --> 00:01:58,800 Speaker 4: politics is a whole different issue that can that could 42 00:01:58,840 --> 00:02:01,480 Speaker 4: be determinative in what comedy does next year. And we 43 00:02:01,600 --> 00:02:02,680 Speaker 4: just we're just not gonna know. 44 00:02:02,840 --> 00:02:04,840 Speaker 3: But does that mean you think it's fifty to fifty 45 00:02:04,880 --> 00:02:08,080 Speaker 3: whether the FED cuts or hikes next time. 46 00:02:08,919 --> 00:02:11,600 Speaker 4: I really don't pay that much tention to that. The 47 00:02:11,680 --> 00:02:14,720 Speaker 4: FED will have to follow the data, and I don't 48 00:02:14,720 --> 00:02:16,440 Speaker 4: know what the data is going to say. But they 49 00:02:16,680 --> 00:02:18,280 Speaker 4: I think, you know, they are doing the right to 50 00:02:18,280 --> 00:02:20,760 Speaker 4: be patient right now, see what's going to happen. They 51 00:02:20,760 --> 00:02:22,480 Speaker 4: may not know for a couple of months, but. 52 00:02:22,600 --> 00:02:24,640 Speaker 3: No big correction. And if you don't pay, you know, 53 00:02:24,680 --> 00:02:26,600 Speaker 3: that much attention to it, it means you're not worried about 54 00:02:26,600 --> 00:02:27,400 Speaker 3: it anything, not worried. 55 00:02:27,440 --> 00:02:29,880 Speaker 4: I just said stocks are very high. I think the 56 00:02:29,960 --> 00:02:31,840 Speaker 4: chance of inflation staying high or a race going up 57 00:02:31,919 --> 00:02:34,160 Speaker 4: or higher than other people of things. So I think 58 00:02:34,160 --> 00:02:36,880 Speaker 4: the chance, my view is whatever the world is pricing 59 00:02:36,880 --> 00:02:39,080 Speaker 4: it for a soft landing, I think it's probably half that. 60 00:02:39,720 --> 00:02:41,720 Speaker 4: I think the chance of something going wrong is higher than. 61 00:02:41,680 --> 00:02:45,880 Speaker 3: People think in the US globally in the. 62 00:02:45,880 --> 00:02:47,519 Speaker 4: US, but also that could affect globally. 63 00:02:47,600 --> 00:02:50,239 Speaker 3: Yeah, and so that what does that mean for markets? 64 00:02:50,760 --> 00:02:53,840 Speaker 4: There'd be down and credits president've got gap out? 65 00:02:54,560 --> 00:02:55,840 Speaker 3: So why is the market not pricing that? 66 00:02:55,880 --> 00:02:58,959 Speaker 4: In not a happy talk? 67 00:03:00,080 --> 00:03:01,320 Speaker 3: Where does that happy talk come? 68 00:03:01,360 --> 00:03:06,240 Speaker 4: From low rates, central banks and reduced rates. You know, 69 00:03:06,360 --> 00:03:10,480 Speaker 4: maybe the geopolitical things disseminate, don't cause problems, and so 70 00:03:11,360 --> 00:03:14,240 Speaker 4: you know the future isn't predictable like that. So you know, 71 00:03:14,440 --> 00:03:17,480 Speaker 4: I'm a student of history. I've watched all the inflection points. 72 00:03:17,639 --> 00:03:19,920 Speaker 4: You go back, and my dad was a stockbroker. I 73 00:03:20,040 --> 00:03:22,520 Speaker 4: go back to the booming market of seventy two and 74 00:03:22,560 --> 00:03:25,880 Speaker 4: the collapse of seventy four, the healthy markets of eighty 75 00:03:25,960 --> 00:03:28,440 Speaker 4: the collapse of eighty two, you know, the ninth the 76 00:03:28,480 --> 00:03:31,440 Speaker 4: eighty seven market crash, the nineteen ninety real estate crash, 77 00:03:31,919 --> 00:03:34,359 Speaker 4: and almost all of them were not predicted the year before. 78 00:03:34,600 --> 00:03:36,720 Speaker 4: So I look at these factors that drive these things 79 00:03:36,760 --> 00:03:39,160 Speaker 4: are not always known. As a company, we prepare for 80 00:03:39,160 --> 00:03:41,520 Speaker 4: all of us. We can serve all our colis regardless. 81 00:03:41,520 --> 00:03:44,160 Speaker 3: But what do you see as the main stress right now? 82 00:03:44,200 --> 00:03:46,960 Speaker 3: Because if it's geopolitics, we talk about it, it's just 83 00:03:47,000 --> 00:03:50,080 Speaker 3: not really priced it. Where does where? Does is it distress? 84 00:03:50,240 --> 00:03:53,120 Speaker 3: Is it something actually going under that you worry about, 85 00:03:53,240 --> 00:03:55,360 Speaker 3: or just a multiple factors coming in at the same time. 86 00:03:55,480 --> 00:03:58,680 Speaker 4: I think, well, geopolitics could create the main stress that 87 00:03:58,680 --> 00:04:03,760 Speaker 4: we're worried about. Oil and gas prices are trade alliances. 88 00:04:05,520 --> 00:04:08,240 Speaker 4: But I think the surprise would be higher rates because 89 00:04:08,240 --> 00:04:11,080 Speaker 4: inflation didn't go down. Then inflation has been stubborn and 90 00:04:11,120 --> 00:04:14,080 Speaker 4: maybe bounces up next year. I think inflation next year 91 00:04:14,080 --> 00:04:16,080 Speaker 4: may be in the cards, may have nothing to do 92 00:04:16,120 --> 00:04:18,680 Speaker 4: with what you're seeing today. So that to me is 93 00:04:18,720 --> 00:04:23,000 Speaker 4: the surprise. If you at higher rates and God forbid stagflation, Yeah, 94 00:04:23,040 --> 00:04:26,440 Speaker 4: you'll see stress in real estate and leverage companies and 95 00:04:26,520 --> 00:04:29,120 Speaker 4: some private credit and things like that. 96 00:04:29,360 --> 00:04:31,200 Speaker 3: So it's unpredictability than you normal. 97 00:04:31,920 --> 00:04:33,599 Speaker 4: I think it's been the enormous of my whole life, 98 00:04:33,800 --> 00:04:34,080 Speaker 4: has it. 99 00:04:34,440 --> 00:04:38,440 Speaker 3: It's not worse now what happens between China and the US, 100 00:04:38,440 --> 00:04:41,480 Speaker 3: and what does that mean for your appetite of being China. 101 00:04:41,640 --> 00:04:44,400 Speaker 4: Yeah, So the geopolitical situation is very tense because the 102 00:04:44,560 --> 00:04:48,200 Speaker 4: more the Ukraine and Russia I ran, the terrors activities 103 00:04:48,240 --> 00:04:52,360 Speaker 4: in Israel, North Korea, nuclear black mail, We've never had 104 00:04:52,480 --> 00:04:55,240 Speaker 4: nuclear blackmail before. And this is of course affecting our 105 00:04:55,279 --> 00:04:58,000 Speaker 4: relationship with China, and you know, it's gonna be hard 106 00:04:58,040 --> 00:04:59,920 Speaker 4: to have a great relation with China. The Ukraine War, 107 00:05:00,200 --> 00:05:03,800 Speaker 4: we're kind of different sides of that. And put Taiwan aside, 108 00:05:04,120 --> 00:05:06,279 Speaker 4: having said that, I think it's the right thing for 109 00:05:06,360 --> 00:05:10,920 Speaker 4: America to fully and deeply engage with China, you know, competitively. 110 00:05:11,440 --> 00:05:13,480 Speaker 4: You know, every nation is going to do. It's in 111 00:05:13,520 --> 00:05:16,919 Speaker 4: their own interest in national security, social America. We should 112 00:05:16,920 --> 00:05:20,359 Speaker 4: define that fairly improperly. If it's unfair trade, you know, 113 00:05:20,600 --> 00:05:23,240 Speaker 4: negotiate that or do whatever you need to do. But 114 00:05:23,360 --> 00:05:25,719 Speaker 4: the engagement is the right thing to do. China is 115 00:05:25,720 --> 00:05:27,800 Speaker 4: not the natural enemy the United States. They have a 116 00:05:27,839 --> 00:05:30,760 Speaker 4: lot of their own problems. So you know, to me, 117 00:05:30,880 --> 00:05:33,280 Speaker 4: we could work together as best we can, and then 118 00:05:33,279 --> 00:05:38,160 Speaker 4: we have common interests climate, anti nuclear, pferation, anti terrorism. 119 00:05:38,240 --> 00:05:40,320 Speaker 3: What does it mean for bank working in China? Actually? 120 00:05:40,360 --> 00:05:42,159 Speaker 3: Given all of this solatility. 121 00:05:42,120 --> 00:05:44,320 Speaker 4: Cautious I mean, you know China, if you look at 122 00:05:44,400 --> 00:05:46,200 Speaker 4: China from a risk of war basis, it used to 123 00:05:46,240 --> 00:05:49,200 Speaker 4: be very good. It's not so good anymore because all 124 00:05:49,240 --> 00:05:52,520 Speaker 4: these things can go wrong. And remember we bank I mean, 125 00:05:52,560 --> 00:05:55,839 Speaker 4: I've got the number, but fifteen hundred multinationals in China. 126 00:05:56,120 --> 00:05:58,080 Speaker 4: They're not leaving China. So we're going to serve our 127 00:05:58,080 --> 00:06:00,680 Speaker 4: clients there. We're just much more cogniti that the risk 128 00:06:00,760 --> 00:06:03,000 Speaker 4: is higher. I might put Hong Kong in that bucket two. 129 00:06:03,440 --> 00:06:04,880 Speaker 4: You know, we look kind of look at China, Hong 130 00:06:04,960 --> 00:06:07,400 Speaker 4: Kong as one at this point from a risk standpoint, 131 00:06:07,760 --> 00:06:08,120 Speaker 4: what does. 132 00:06:08,000 --> 00:06:10,200 Speaker 3: A Trump administration mean for the US economy? 133 00:06:11,040 --> 00:06:11,440 Speaker 4: I don't know. 134 00:06:12,640 --> 00:06:16,080 Speaker 3: You know, they're why because it's unfrectable, or because we're 135 00:06:16,120 --> 00:06:18,120 Speaker 3: too soon to actually try trying to figure out the 136 00:06:18,120 --> 00:06:20,279 Speaker 3: policies that he laves it in place. 137 00:06:20,760 --> 00:06:23,520 Speaker 4: So if you look at history, who was elected president 138 00:06:23,600 --> 00:06:26,760 Speaker 4: may not necessarily effect the next year. That's kind of 139 00:06:26,800 --> 00:06:29,039 Speaker 4: like we're a big tanker and that's going to happen. 140 00:06:29,440 --> 00:06:32,240 Speaker 4: I think the much more important thing is what we 141 00:06:32,360 --> 00:06:35,600 Speaker 4: do in the geopolitical situation. You know, I've always been 142 00:06:35,680 --> 00:06:38,640 Speaker 4: quite clear that American leadership is provided to keep the 143 00:06:38,640 --> 00:06:43,000 Speaker 4: world free and safe for democracy, and that means economic alliances, 144 00:06:43,000 --> 00:06:45,120 Speaker 4: which includes trade. By the way, I think we should 145 00:06:45,240 --> 00:06:49,040 Speaker 4: spend more time in trade. It means NATO. It means 146 00:06:49,120 --> 00:06:52,800 Speaker 4: that Russia should not win in Ukraine, because if they do, 147 00:06:52,920 --> 00:06:55,040 Speaker 4: I think it can tear us under this Western world. 148 00:06:55,279 --> 00:06:58,240 Speaker 3: I know you've ruled out being Treasury secretary. Why what 149 00:06:58,279 --> 00:06:59,880 Speaker 3: would it take to get you into politics. 150 00:07:00,560 --> 00:07:03,320 Speaker 4: I don't think I'm suited for politics. I love my job, 151 00:07:03,360 --> 00:07:05,040 Speaker 4: you know, and so I'm not sure I want to 152 00:07:05,080 --> 00:07:07,200 Speaker 4: do something like that, and I can hope even. 153 00:07:07,040 --> 00:07:09,440 Speaker 3: If you got the call, would it be hard to 154 00:07:09,480 --> 00:07:10,440 Speaker 3: say no, I don't know. 155 00:07:11,400 --> 00:07:13,440 Speaker 4: Probably yes. I love my job and I have no 156 00:07:13,520 --> 00:07:14,840 Speaker 4: inis in leaving and doing N ANDL. 157 00:07:14,960 --> 00:07:17,800 Speaker 3: So what we're in France at a global markets conference. 158 00:07:17,880 --> 00:07:20,640 Speaker 3: What are you expecting from Bozel three? What will j 159 00:07:20,800 --> 00:07:22,640 Speaker 3: Powell put in place? And you will book. 160 00:07:22,680 --> 00:07:25,000 Speaker 4: I should mention, by the way, because President McCrone has 161 00:07:25,040 --> 00:07:27,880 Speaker 4: done an outstanding job here. Pro Business got us to 162 00:07:27,920 --> 00:07:30,320 Speaker 4: move our trading floors here. You know he wants to 163 00:07:30,360 --> 00:07:32,840 Speaker 4: grow his economy. There's much more innovation. We had a 164 00:07:33,000 --> 00:07:36,160 Speaker 4: thing lands by a lot of innovation. So look Basil three, 165 00:07:36,360 --> 00:07:39,280 Speaker 4: We've been quite clear. We thought it was excessive, not 166 00:07:39,400 --> 00:07:41,480 Speaker 4: well thought through. I would love to know what the 167 00:07:41,560 --> 00:07:44,480 Speaker 4: endgame is. What are they trying to accomplish with private credit? 168 00:07:44,480 --> 00:07:46,480 Speaker 4: What are they trying to accomplish with Like even the 169 00:07:46,520 --> 00:07:48,800 Speaker 4: other day, eighty percent or more has left the system, 170 00:07:48,920 --> 00:07:51,600 Speaker 4: and now the government's talking about having a bailout system 171 00:07:51,600 --> 00:07:54,120 Speaker 4: for mortgage companies because they're no longer in a bank 172 00:07:54,160 --> 00:07:56,880 Speaker 4: that has the ability to provide liquidity in tough markets. 173 00:07:57,320 --> 00:07:59,000 Speaker 4: That would be the same thing in market making, so 174 00:07:59,360 --> 00:08:01,320 Speaker 4: they're looking at at it. You know, I trust J. 175 00:08:01,480 --> 00:08:04,360 Speaker 4: Powell to look at and analyze what they need to do, 176 00:08:04,400 --> 00:08:05,720 Speaker 4: how they need to do it. The other thing, which 177 00:08:05,720 --> 00:08:08,920 Speaker 4: I'm not sure Europeans know, I have no idea, and 178 00:08:09,360 --> 00:08:11,200 Speaker 4: it may end up in a lawsuit or something like that. 179 00:08:11,280 --> 00:08:14,040 Speaker 4: But but the amazing thing to me is that America 180 00:08:14,120 --> 00:08:17,320 Speaker 4: ended up the end game thirty percent more capital than 181 00:08:17,320 --> 00:08:21,240 Speaker 4: the European Bank in America. And I just why we 182 00:08:21,600 --> 00:08:24,160 Speaker 4: argue about international standards and then we simply don't do them. 183 00:08:24,400 --> 00:08:26,800 Speaker 4: And also I think the regulation answer the question what 184 00:08:26,840 --> 00:08:29,240 Speaker 4: do you want how do you want the system to work? 185 00:08:29,320 --> 00:08:31,680 Speaker 4: Is do you want it to put private credit a 186 00:08:31,720 --> 00:08:33,839 Speaker 4: public credit? Do you want moretage out of the banks 187 00:08:34,120 --> 00:08:36,640 Speaker 4: just dictated? If that's the goal is just dictated. If 188 00:08:36,640 --> 00:08:39,040 Speaker 4: you don't want leverage land the bank just dictated, you know. 189 00:08:39,120 --> 00:08:40,920 Speaker 4: And I think you know, we are guardian in the 190 00:08:40,960 --> 00:08:43,320 Speaker 4: financial system. You know, we bank, you know, we bank 191 00:08:43,360 --> 00:08:46,199 Speaker 4: one hundred countries and you know we're on the ground 192 00:08:46,200 --> 00:08:50,599 Speaker 4: of sixty countries. You know, we do great work for cities, schools, states, hospitals, 193 00:08:50,600 --> 00:08:54,360 Speaker 4: soul or whin climate. Middle market companies is that what 194 00:08:54,440 --> 00:08:56,880 Speaker 4: they don't want or they do want, you know, they want. 195 00:08:56,720 --> 00:08:59,000 Speaker 3: To make it more expensive. Are they to figure it out? 196 00:08:59,040 --> 00:09:00,719 Speaker 4: I think they've got to figure out. I don't think 197 00:09:00,720 --> 00:09:02,640 Speaker 4: it's quite clear from any now. So they did. You 198 00:09:02,640 --> 00:09:05,520 Speaker 4: guys should read it and write about it. There was 199 00:09:05,640 --> 00:09:09,719 Speaker 4: no detailed announced about cost benefit, what they're trying to accomplish, 200 00:09:10,040 --> 00:09:11,040 Speaker 4: what the outcome will be. 201 00:09:11,240 --> 00:09:14,040 Speaker 3: That's why we're asking you, Jamie, talk to me about France. 202 00:09:14,120 --> 00:09:18,160 Speaker 3: So you're positive on the President Malcamoy. Also know that 203 00:09:18,160 --> 00:09:20,080 Speaker 3: you were at the Chiefs France event on Monday. If 204 00:09:20,080 --> 00:09:22,680 Speaker 3: he relacks labor laws, would you hire more in this country? 205 00:09:22,920 --> 00:09:24,800 Speaker 4: He did relax labor laws, but if he relax the 206 00:09:24,880 --> 00:09:27,880 Speaker 4: more possibly. You know, we now have a thousand people here. 207 00:09:28,120 --> 00:09:30,480 Speaker 4: We have large trading floors here with Strade. I've got 208 00:09:30,520 --> 00:09:33,000 Speaker 4: the number five or eight, five or six or seven 209 00:09:33,000 --> 00:09:36,079 Speaker 4: eight hundred million dollars a day. When you have a 210 00:09:36,160 --> 00:09:39,760 Speaker 4: thousand people, you tend to hire more and more technology more, 211 00:09:39,800 --> 00:09:41,720 Speaker 4: and that's been true for us so that I've been 212 00:09:41,720 --> 00:09:44,120 Speaker 4: at JP Moore and once you have a very competent 213 00:09:44,160 --> 00:09:47,079 Speaker 4: group of people and you have hiring capability and friends, 214 00:09:47,080 --> 00:09:49,280 Speaker 4: you tend to do more things there. So my view 215 00:09:49,320 --> 00:09:51,160 Speaker 4: is we will be doing more things here, and it 216 00:09:51,360 --> 00:09:53,880 Speaker 4: was the tax lad they put in place, the regulations 217 00:09:53,920 --> 00:09:56,839 Speaker 4: they put in place, the labor flexibility they put in place. 218 00:09:57,120 --> 00:10:00,320 Speaker 4: Those things do make a difference, and very importantly just 219 00:10:00,360 --> 00:10:03,280 Speaker 4: lift up JP Morgan here. We pay a lot of 220 00:10:03,360 --> 00:10:06,560 Speaker 4: taxes here which help lift up all citizens. I don't 221 00:10:06,559 --> 00:10:09,240 Speaker 4: think President macrohane did that for JP Morgan. He did 222 00:10:09,320 --> 00:10:12,199 Speaker 4: because he knows his country needs to grow, bring it innovation, 223 00:10:12,559 --> 00:10:14,880 Speaker 4: and that's that's how you build a better country. 224 00:10:15,040 --> 00:10:17,200 Speaker 3: So the chief executive is the largest wealth fund in 225 00:10:17,240 --> 00:10:19,560 Speaker 3: the world, says that actually America is doing much better 226 00:10:19,559 --> 00:10:23,240 Speaker 3: because Americans are less lazy or work harder than the Europeans. 227 00:10:23,280 --> 00:10:24,840 Speaker 3: I mean, is that fair? Is that regulation? 228 00:10:25,120 --> 00:10:27,719 Speaker 4: I hate total blanking statements like that. I know a 229 00:10:27,720 --> 00:10:30,720 Speaker 4: lot of Europeans who work hard. But I think when 230 00:10:30,720 --> 00:10:32,400 Speaker 4: you see the things about work hours, I think it 231 00:10:32,480 --> 00:10:37,560 Speaker 4: is somewhat true. Americans are hard working. Anywhere you go around, 232 00:10:37,559 --> 00:10:39,960 Speaker 4: Americas are hard working. But I see that here too, 233 00:10:40,679 --> 00:10:42,920 Speaker 4: I don't think, and the innovation people you meet through 234 00:10:42,920 --> 00:10:45,000 Speaker 4: working just as hard as the innovation people in the 235 00:10:45,120 --> 00:10:45,800 Speaker 4: United States. 236 00:10:46,280 --> 00:10:48,760 Speaker 3: So you also in terms of headcount in the UK, 237 00:10:49,280 --> 00:10:51,280 Speaker 3: I think it's at the highest that it's ever been. 238 00:10:51,400 --> 00:10:53,760 Speaker 3: And you're also doing you're giving money to try and 239 00:10:53,840 --> 00:10:57,840 Speaker 3: retrain and you've recently met with possibly the next Prime minister. 240 00:10:58,040 --> 00:10:59,920 Speaker 3: See so far advance in the polls. What do you think? 241 00:11:01,000 --> 00:11:03,720 Speaker 4: Yeah, look, I like the fact that both the Conservative 242 00:11:03,760 --> 00:11:08,480 Speaker 4: and the Labor governments are talking about pro business, simpler regulations, 243 00:11:09,080 --> 00:11:13,160 Speaker 4: getting more innovation in the country, becoming competitive, and we 244 00:11:13,200 --> 00:11:16,240 Speaker 4: all need like we all have too much debt. Growth 245 00:11:16,320 --> 00:11:19,800 Speaker 4: is the best anecdote for antidote for everything, and so 246 00:11:19,960 --> 00:11:22,520 Speaker 4: having a growth strategy is good for a country, and 247 00:11:22,559 --> 00:11:25,200 Speaker 4: it's good for the lower income people. And this training 248 00:11:25,240 --> 00:11:28,080 Speaker 4: stuff is maybe the most important to get training jobs, 249 00:11:28,480 --> 00:11:30,840 Speaker 4: that first job as a first run in a ladder, 250 00:11:31,080 --> 00:11:34,880 Speaker 4: creates dignity, you know, more home household formation, and I 251 00:11:34,920 --> 00:11:36,640 Speaker 4: think countries have to do more of that because if 252 00:11:36,679 --> 00:11:38,680 Speaker 4: they don't, you know, you can have a tough time. 253 00:11:38,880 --> 00:11:41,000 Speaker 3: But do you think the UK com you will change 254 00:11:41,040 --> 00:11:41,640 Speaker 3: under Labor? 255 00:11:42,840 --> 00:11:45,959 Speaker 4: I don't know yet, but I was happy with what 256 00:11:46,000 --> 00:11:47,920 Speaker 4: they were talking about. We had Rachel Reeves come to 257 00:11:47,920 --> 00:11:51,439 Speaker 4: our conference too, that they're all talking from the playbook. 258 00:11:51,679 --> 00:11:56,920 Speaker 4: We need growth, simpler regulations, more capital formation, more capital investment, 259 00:11:56,920 --> 00:12:00,280 Speaker 4: need proper taxation because that's the way to help whole 260 00:12:00,280 --> 00:12:02,640 Speaker 4: country and all our citizens. So that is what we 261 00:12:02,640 --> 00:12:03,360 Speaker 4: shall all be doing. 262 00:12:04,360 --> 00:12:07,360 Speaker 3: Jamie Denman, we talk around, you know, India all the time. 263 00:12:07,440 --> 00:12:10,160 Speaker 3: Is this a decade for India and does it somehow 264 00:12:10,200 --> 00:12:13,280 Speaker 3: counterbaland China for you know, world growth? 265 00:12:14,240 --> 00:12:17,160 Speaker 4: Yeah, Look, I think India has done a very good job. 266 00:12:17,640 --> 00:12:19,319 Speaker 4: And you know when you look at India, yes, it 267 00:12:19,640 --> 00:12:22,360 Speaker 4: should have a very bright future. I'm not saying as 268 00:12:22,400 --> 00:12:25,120 Speaker 4: account in a China, but a very bright future. And 269 00:12:25,160 --> 00:12:27,280 Speaker 4: I think we shall be reaching out to India that 270 00:12:27,360 --> 00:12:29,200 Speaker 4: you know, they have to stay not aligned because they're 271 00:12:29,280 --> 00:12:31,240 Speaker 4: kind of where they are in the world between Russia 272 00:12:31,240 --> 00:12:33,680 Speaker 4: and China. But you know, they're a democracy, they're a 273 00:12:33,760 --> 00:12:36,720 Speaker 4: natural friend of America and the Western world, and we 274 00:12:36,720 --> 00:12:38,599 Speaker 4: shall all be helping them. And they've they've made a 275 00:12:38,640 --> 00:12:43,360 Speaker 4: lot of changes there, infrastructure, transfer payment, seven hundred million 276 00:12:43,360 --> 00:12:45,480 Speaker 4: people bank accounts that are going to be very good 277 00:12:45,520 --> 00:12:46,160 Speaker 4: for that country. 278 00:12:46,360 --> 00:12:48,119 Speaker 3: So what does that mean for JP Morgan. 279 00:12:48,320 --> 00:12:50,360 Speaker 4: Well, we're not we're not in the retail business there, 280 00:12:50,360 --> 00:12:53,120 Speaker 4: but we will be in. We have sixty thousand employees there. 281 00:12:53,160 --> 00:12:57,920 Speaker 4: We got big campuses, high technology, uh, and we're expanding 282 00:12:57,920 --> 00:13:01,199 Speaker 4: our trading, our research, our investment banking. Yeah, we're there 283 00:13:01,200 --> 00:13:01,800 Speaker 4: at a big time. 284 00:13:02,520 --> 00:13:03,880 Speaker 3: Can you talk to me a little bit about JP 285 00:13:03,960 --> 00:13:05,640 Speaker 3: Morgan and how I mean you've had a number of 286 00:13:05,720 --> 00:13:08,679 Speaker 3: high profile departures. How does that change actually the way 287 00:13:08,679 --> 00:13:11,640 Speaker 3: you focus your business and how you run things going forwards? 288 00:13:11,679 --> 00:13:12,120 Speaker 4: Not at all? 289 00:13:12,679 --> 00:13:16,000 Speaker 3: Nothing zero. If you were to buy anything, what would 290 00:13:16,000 --> 00:13:16,320 Speaker 3: you buy? 291 00:13:16,440 --> 00:13:20,840 Speaker 4: Oh that's different. Look we have we can't buy banks. 292 00:13:20,840 --> 00:13:21,440 Speaker 4: You do know that? 293 00:13:21,840 --> 00:13:24,560 Speaker 3: So you know you could buy your European bank, could you? 294 00:13:25,600 --> 00:13:29,400 Speaker 4: I wouldn't even try. I think the American relgud hate it. 295 00:13:29,440 --> 00:13:31,600 Speaker 4: I think the regulators he would hate it. Even if 296 00:13:31,640 --> 00:13:33,640 Speaker 4: they said go ahead and do it, I'd probably be 297 00:13:33,679 --> 00:13:35,839 Speaker 4: in courts and things for a year and a half. 298 00:13:36,200 --> 00:13:38,880 Speaker 4: Huge distraction in my own company. I'd rather just say 299 00:13:38,960 --> 00:13:41,840 Speaker 4: we want to add clients in this country, and clients 300 00:13:41,880 --> 00:13:44,360 Speaker 4: and that kind of add bankers and technology and branches. 301 00:13:44,679 --> 00:13:45,840 Speaker 4: Just a better way for us to grow. 302 00:13:45,880 --> 00:13:47,520 Speaker 3: Okay, But if there's a if you could buy anything, 303 00:13:47,559 --> 00:13:50,320 Speaker 3: I mean not about I tell you, but you were 304 00:13:50,360 --> 00:13:51,240 Speaker 3: thinking of something. 305 00:13:51,080 --> 00:13:53,600 Speaker 4: Yeah, we always look at stuff. Yeah, so we're not 306 00:13:53,640 --> 00:13:55,760 Speaker 4: looking at any major acquisition or anything like that. 307 00:13:55,880 --> 00:13:56,480 Speaker 3: Technology. 308 00:13:56,520 --> 00:13:58,320 Speaker 4: You know, if you look who we're doing. We're adding 309 00:13:58,559 --> 00:14:01,520 Speaker 4: literally and sort we have yesterday, next week. We're adding 310 00:14:01,800 --> 00:14:05,160 Speaker 4: retail and wholesale branches. We're adding them in the United States. 311 00:14:05,160 --> 00:14:08,040 Speaker 4: We're almost all the major hundred cities there now. We're 312 00:14:08,040 --> 00:14:11,760 Speaker 4: adding commercial banking all over Europe and Asia. We're adding 313 00:14:12,000 --> 00:14:15,880 Speaker 4: technology around payments and even the blockchain called honorx to 314 00:14:15,960 --> 00:14:19,520 Speaker 4: move data and maybe move money one day. We're constantly investing. 315 00:14:19,560 --> 00:14:22,040 Speaker 4: We have two hundred people, two thousand people, AI and 316 00:14:22,200 --> 00:14:25,200 Speaker 4: machine learning for use cases on the way to probably AID. 317 00:14:25,320 --> 00:14:28,280 Speaker 3: I know I speak in five years. How much bigger 318 00:14:28,320 --> 00:14:29,040 Speaker 3: and how much different? 319 00:14:29,080 --> 00:14:32,600 Speaker 4: Probably be speaking to a fake diamond who's just answering 320 00:14:32,680 --> 00:14:34,160 Speaker 4: question n avatar an avatar. 321 00:14:34,280 --> 00:14:36,120 Speaker 3: Yeah, do you think about technology a lot? 322 00:14:36,240 --> 00:14:38,600 Speaker 4: Yes, all the time. Every meeting we have. This has 323 00:14:38,600 --> 00:14:41,040 Speaker 4: been true my whole life. When we have any management meeting, 324 00:14:41,280 --> 00:14:44,560 Speaker 4: your technology jets on the table that includes AI, cloud, 325 00:14:45,760 --> 00:14:48,720 Speaker 4: just more analytics. What are you doing to do things better, faster, 326 00:14:48,800 --> 00:14:53,320 Speaker 4: quicker for clients digital huge amount of digital services, integrating 327 00:14:53,360 --> 00:14:54,960 Speaker 4: them better or a mating them better. 328 00:14:55,040 --> 00:14:57,280 Speaker 3: So that would I mean that will change? I guess 329 00:14:57,320 --> 00:14:59,880 Speaker 3: see the heart of banking. Does that mean that you 330 00:15:00,000 --> 00:15:03,440 Speaker 3: we'll see more winners? Than losers because of the technological eventments. 331 00:15:03,520 --> 00:15:07,080 Speaker 4: So technology has always changed the heart of banking, moving money, 332 00:15:07,120 --> 00:15:10,560 Speaker 4: holding money, advising money, radio. That won't change, and you 333 00:15:10,600 --> 00:15:14,080 Speaker 4: have to do that according to rules, laws, regulations by country. 334 00:15:14,480 --> 00:15:16,400 Speaker 4: What it will change is how you deliver it. So 335 00:15:16,480 --> 00:15:17,960 Speaker 4: like right now you go on your phone, you can 336 00:15:18,040 --> 00:15:20,840 Speaker 4: move money and buy stocks. That wasn't true twenty years ago. 337 00:15:21,200 --> 00:15:24,160 Speaker 4: So yes, everything you do will change to the technology. 338 00:15:24,440 --> 00:15:27,760 Speaker 4: But you'll still have to move money, budget, raise money, 339 00:15:28,440 --> 00:15:32,280 Speaker 4: make investments, et cetera. So you know, the core won't change, 340 00:15:32,760 --> 00:15:35,640 Speaker 4: but will it change. Regulations may change that too, obviously, so. 341 00:15:35,840 --> 00:15:39,040 Speaker 3: In the US. So again, would a Trump presidency be 342 00:15:39,160 --> 00:15:41,760 Speaker 3: more favorable to banks when it comes to regulation? 343 00:15:42,800 --> 00:15:46,520 Speaker 4: You know, I don't know. I mean, you know, I 344 00:15:46,680 --> 00:15:49,680 Speaker 4: am unhappy with the amount of rules and regulations coming 345 00:15:49,680 --> 00:15:53,200 Speaker 4: out today. I don't know what a second administration of 346 00:15:53,320 --> 00:15:56,800 Speaker 4: either one would do. I'm hopeful that they focus on growth. 347 00:15:57,000 --> 00:15:59,280 Speaker 4: Wh's good for the citizens, it's good for the country, 348 00:16:00,160 --> 00:16:02,880 Speaker 4: and I would help anyone I can to do that 349 00:16:02,920 --> 00:16:05,560 Speaker 4: for my country. I'm quite patriotic about that. And I 350 00:16:05,560 --> 00:16:07,800 Speaker 4: do think you need a service. I think you needed 351 00:16:07,960 --> 00:16:08,880 Speaker 4: no helping. 352 00:16:08,920 --> 00:16:12,000 Speaker 3: Helping as a bank, you it's good to get that clearer. 353 00:16:22,360 --> 00:16:24,440 Speaker 2: The friend of ours in this program joined us. Now 354 00:16:24,440 --> 00:16:27,440 Speaker 2: for more, Mike Collins, let's start with yesterday and talk 355 00:16:27,440 --> 00:16:29,760 Speaker 2: about what that data means going forward from here. 356 00:16:30,960 --> 00:16:34,160 Speaker 5: Yeah, Jonathan, good, good morning, Thanks for having me again. 357 00:16:34,680 --> 00:16:34,880 Speaker 6: Yeah. 358 00:16:35,000 --> 00:16:38,440 Speaker 5: I think we're just moving in the direction we've been expecting, right, which. 359 00:16:38,240 --> 00:16:41,680 Speaker 6: Is slight moderation in growth down. 360 00:16:41,480 --> 00:16:44,280 Speaker 5: Toward two percent, maybe a little bit below two percent 361 00:16:44,440 --> 00:16:48,920 Speaker 5: this year, and a continued moderation in inflation. I mean, 362 00:16:48,920 --> 00:16:51,640 Speaker 5: if you strip out we're back to stripping out shelter again, right, 363 00:16:51,680 --> 00:16:55,840 Speaker 5: because that continues to be sticky running, you know, closer 364 00:16:55,880 --> 00:16:58,160 Speaker 5: to six percent than two or three. 365 00:16:58,160 --> 00:17:00,120 Speaker 6: If you strip that out, both had. 366 00:17:00,080 --> 00:17:03,280 Speaker 5: Line and core CPI year over year now are back 367 00:17:03,280 --> 00:17:06,639 Speaker 5: in the low to mid two. So we're moving in 368 00:17:06,680 --> 00:17:10,760 Speaker 5: the right direction. That's our expectation that the shelter component 369 00:17:11,040 --> 00:17:14,720 Speaker 5: will probably get cut in half as the year goes on, 370 00:17:14,840 --> 00:17:18,560 Speaker 5: from close to six to closer to three. So I 371 00:17:18,560 --> 00:17:21,280 Speaker 5: think it's pretty good news on all front. The question is, 372 00:17:21,320 --> 00:17:24,280 Speaker 5: as you heard from from Williams this morning, you know, 373 00:17:24,359 --> 00:17:26,879 Speaker 5: why does the FED need to do anything. I mean, 374 00:17:26,920 --> 00:17:29,760 Speaker 5: we're in the zero to two cut camp now, as 375 00:17:29,800 --> 00:17:32,520 Speaker 5: you just indicated, and I don't know. 376 00:17:32,560 --> 00:17:33,960 Speaker 6: I mean, I think I think zero. 377 00:17:34,320 --> 00:17:36,840 Speaker 5: Is probably the highest probability of a zero one or 378 00:17:36,840 --> 00:17:39,280 Speaker 5: two if you had to really push me on it. 379 00:17:39,840 --> 00:17:43,040 Speaker 5: You know, the FED'SMO historically has been sit on your hands, 380 00:17:43,160 --> 00:17:45,800 Speaker 5: don't do anything until you're really forced to move, until 381 00:17:45,800 --> 00:17:49,760 Speaker 5: the data really points hard in one direction or the other. 382 00:17:49,840 --> 00:17:51,720 Speaker 2: And it is not doing that, Mike, I want to 383 00:17:51,760 --> 00:17:53,240 Speaker 2: push you on it. I've got a quote in front 384 00:17:53,240 --> 00:17:56,240 Speaker 2: of me from you at the start of April. You 385 00:17:56,280 --> 00:17:59,600 Speaker 2: said this, the economy continues to be solid, Inflation continues 386 00:17:59,640 --> 00:18:01,600 Speaker 2: to be stayed ken well above their target, the labor 387 00:18:01,640 --> 00:18:04,600 Speaker 2: market is still rock solid, financial conditions to the easiest 388 00:18:04,600 --> 00:18:07,119 Speaker 2: they've been since the Fett sneid hiking. Why would you 389 00:18:07,160 --> 00:18:10,600 Speaker 2: cut interest rates with that backdrop? Mike, is that quote 390 00:18:10,680 --> 00:18:13,159 Speaker 2: still your quote right now? Would you say exactly the 391 00:18:13,200 --> 00:18:13,680 Speaker 2: same thing? 392 00:18:15,080 --> 00:18:16,000 Speaker 6: Absolutely? You know? 393 00:18:16,080 --> 00:18:18,960 Speaker 5: I mean now, Powell is a dove, right, he is 394 00:18:19,000 --> 00:18:22,480 Speaker 5: a labor market economist, kind of trained under Yellen. 395 00:18:22,600 --> 00:18:23,639 Speaker 6: That's his that's his mo. 396 00:18:23,920 --> 00:18:29,840 Speaker 5: He's very sensitive to getting pushed from the left about 397 00:18:29,840 --> 00:18:33,720 Speaker 5: the job market. I mean, if things change, and things 398 00:18:33,720 --> 00:18:36,120 Speaker 5: can change rapidly, as we all know, Jonathan, if things 399 00:18:36,200 --> 00:18:40,280 Speaker 5: change in the labor market really starts to weaken over 400 00:18:40,320 --> 00:18:43,000 Speaker 5: the course of the year, then sure, I mean a 401 00:18:43,040 --> 00:18:46,720 Speaker 5: cut or two are definitely in the cards. But right now, 402 00:18:46,760 --> 00:18:49,960 Speaker 5: the way the data is pointing, I would certainly still 403 00:18:50,000 --> 00:18:53,520 Speaker 5: stick to that statement that their mo is to do nothing. 404 00:18:53,760 --> 00:18:54,600 Speaker 6: Until they're forced to. 405 00:18:54,640 --> 00:18:58,040 Speaker 5: And again with the election looming, they start running out 406 00:18:58,040 --> 00:19:01,640 Speaker 5: of dates as we all know, so that's definitely part 407 00:19:01,680 --> 00:19:02,720 Speaker 5: of the capitalist Mike. 408 00:19:02,800 --> 00:19:04,760 Speaker 1: We've been playing around with what this means for risk 409 00:19:04,840 --> 00:19:07,440 Speaker 1: your assets, and a lot of people have had conflicting views. 410 00:19:07,200 --> 00:19:08,520 Speaker 7: About how much it actually matters. 411 00:19:08,520 --> 00:19:11,200 Speaker 1: Since we're seeing a stickiness and a lack of potential 412 00:19:11,240 --> 00:19:14,800 Speaker 1: rate cuts. This here because of positive economic trends. 413 00:19:15,080 --> 00:19:16,760 Speaker 7: From your vantage point, does. 414 00:19:16,640 --> 00:19:19,399 Speaker 1: This push you further into risk assets in credit or 415 00:19:19,720 --> 00:19:21,680 Speaker 1: maybe make you a little concerned hold back. 416 00:19:22,680 --> 00:19:26,400 Speaker 5: Yeah, We're continuing to be pretty defensive in credits. We're 417 00:19:26,440 --> 00:19:29,400 Speaker 5: continuing to cut back. In fact, our recent trades I've 418 00:19:29,440 --> 00:19:34,400 Speaker 5: really been to continue to reduce exposure to corporate credit 419 00:19:34,800 --> 00:19:37,240 Speaker 5: and increase exposure to things like Believe it or Not, 420 00:19:37,600 --> 00:19:41,360 Speaker 5: you know, old fashioned government guaranteed agency mortgage backed securities, 421 00:19:42,119 --> 00:19:44,480 Speaker 5: where they have been a big laggard, not only this 422 00:19:44,600 --> 00:19:48,840 Speaker 5: year but over years now relative to corporate credit, and 423 00:19:48,880 --> 00:19:53,520 Speaker 5: they actually have some technical and valuation dynamics that actually 424 00:19:53,560 --> 00:19:55,879 Speaker 5: look pretty appealing. Right, if interest rates fall, if you 425 00:19:55,920 --> 00:19:58,800 Speaker 5: get a weakening in the economy, which again isn't our 426 00:19:58,840 --> 00:20:03,280 Speaker 5: base case, mortgages would actually outperform corporate credit in my 427 00:20:03,400 --> 00:20:05,679 Speaker 5: mind in that scenario. So again, that's an up in 428 00:20:05,760 --> 00:20:08,600 Speaker 5: quality trade, that's an up in liquidity trade, that's a 429 00:20:08,640 --> 00:20:12,000 Speaker 5: more defensive trade, and that's generally been our direction of travel. 430 00:20:12,119 --> 00:20:15,359 Speaker 1: It raises this interesting point about whether the biggest risk 431 00:20:15,520 --> 00:20:18,080 Speaker 1: is not a reacceleration of inflation anymore, whether we've basically 432 00:20:18,080 --> 00:20:20,159 Speaker 1: taken that off the table and now people are just 433 00:20:20,160 --> 00:20:22,800 Speaker 1: looking for the timing of one thing's slow more materially, 434 00:20:22,800 --> 00:20:25,879 Speaker 1: which is the reason why people are getting bullish on duration. 435 00:20:26,359 --> 00:20:29,760 Speaker 1: Is that essentially your baseline presumption. 436 00:20:31,320 --> 00:20:34,880 Speaker 6: Yes, yes, I think the upside risk we're there. We've 437 00:20:34,920 --> 00:20:35,239 Speaker 6: had it. 438 00:20:35,280 --> 00:20:37,920 Speaker 5: We've had the big boom in nominal GDP, we've had 439 00:20:37,960 --> 00:20:41,200 Speaker 5: the overshoot in real growth, we've had the overshoot in 440 00:20:41,200 --> 00:20:42,720 Speaker 5: inflation and nominal growth. 441 00:20:42,720 --> 00:20:44,359 Speaker 6: We've had the overshoot in interest rates. 442 00:20:45,200 --> 00:20:48,000 Speaker 5: Lisa, and and I think you know when the markets 443 00:20:48,080 --> 00:20:51,040 Speaker 5: just a few weeks ago we're pricing in a permanent 444 00:20:51,359 --> 00:20:55,400 Speaker 5: funds rate of around four percent as the low terminal rate. 445 00:20:55,280 --> 00:20:56,680 Speaker 6: For the next ten years. 446 00:20:57,160 --> 00:20:59,200 Speaker 5: I look at that as an overshoot, and that rates 447 00:20:59,200 --> 00:21:02,399 Speaker 5: where you know, fifty two hundred basis points too high. 448 00:21:02,600 --> 00:21:03,919 Speaker 6: And then look what just happened. 449 00:21:03,920 --> 00:21:07,879 Speaker 5: They rallied forty basis points really fast, right, So now 450 00:21:08,160 --> 00:21:11,000 Speaker 5: maybe there's still half a percent, you know, higher than 451 00:21:11,040 --> 00:21:13,000 Speaker 5: what I would say is fair value, which is probably 452 00:21:13,000 --> 00:21:15,840 Speaker 5: more in the in the mid to high threes, let's say, 453 00:21:15,880 --> 00:21:17,720 Speaker 5: on a ten year treasury. 454 00:21:18,000 --> 00:21:20,399 Speaker 6: Than in the in the low to mid mid fourth. 455 00:21:20,480 --> 00:21:23,320 Speaker 5: So yeah, we're still advising our clients that, you know, 456 00:21:23,359 --> 00:21:26,440 Speaker 5: you get four handle yields across the curve on long 457 00:21:26,520 --> 00:21:28,840 Speaker 5: term rates, you know, four to four and a half, 458 00:21:28,840 --> 00:21:31,159 Speaker 5: and anything above four and a half is the bi 459 00:21:31,320 --> 00:21:35,960 Speaker 5: zone for adding duration to their portfolios, which really. 460 00:21:35,760 --> 00:21:37,720 Speaker 1: Goes to this question that we were asking earlier when 461 00:21:37,720 --> 00:21:40,200 Speaker 1: we were peeking out in rates, about how much these 462 00:21:40,240 --> 00:21:43,480 Speaker 1: other concerns about the deficit, about tariffs, about a structurally 463 00:21:43,520 --> 00:21:48,520 Speaker 1: more inflationary environment would really be problematic for longer term bonds. 464 00:21:48,520 --> 00:21:49,960 Speaker 1: I'd say it's sort of a gut check for me 465 00:21:50,000 --> 00:21:52,359 Speaker 1: because I hear things like Ray Dalio talking about civil 466 00:21:52,359 --> 00:21:55,120 Speaker 1: war and the possibility of the US det completely undermining 467 00:21:55,160 --> 00:21:58,040 Speaker 1: the value of the dollar. David Solomon with Jonathan Ferrell 468 00:21:58,520 --> 00:22:01,080 Speaker 1: earlier this week, talking about how concerned he is about 469 00:22:01,119 --> 00:22:03,560 Speaker 1: the deficit. Is this all just lip service to basically 470 00:22:03,640 --> 00:22:07,120 Speaker 1: cover any potential risks that they have, but that everyone 471 00:22:07,160 --> 00:22:09,120 Speaker 1: just sees this as continuing to be the same old 472 00:22:09,119 --> 00:22:11,000 Speaker 1: story that isn't going to come to the markets for 473 00:22:11,920 --> 00:22:12,240 Speaker 1: you know, I. 474 00:22:12,160 --> 00:22:14,239 Speaker 5: Think what a lot of people in the US, right 475 00:22:14,280 --> 00:22:18,480 Speaker 5: we're a very kind of nationalistic, you know, US centrist 476 00:22:19,240 --> 00:22:21,600 Speaker 5: view here in the US, and it is a global 477 00:22:21,960 --> 00:22:25,080 Speaker 5: bond market, and our clients are big pools of money 478 00:22:25,160 --> 00:22:27,639 Speaker 5: all over the world. And if you look at, you know, 479 00:22:27,680 --> 00:22:30,919 Speaker 5: the fiscal situations elsewhere, I mean, they are at least 480 00:22:31,359 --> 00:22:35,640 Speaker 5: as bad as ours. The supply is brutal everywhere. Europe's 481 00:22:35,680 --> 00:22:37,680 Speaker 5: actually maybe a little bit of a shining star because 482 00:22:37,680 --> 00:22:39,919 Speaker 5: they actually do have a fiscal rules, even. 483 00:22:39,760 --> 00:22:40,760 Speaker 6: Though they let them slip. 484 00:22:41,200 --> 00:22:44,359 Speaker 5: But our rates, Lisa, our rates are two hundred basis 485 00:22:44,359 --> 00:22:47,800 Speaker 5: points higher than China, two hundred basis points higher than 486 00:22:47,840 --> 00:22:52,040 Speaker 5: German and European yields, you know, three hundred you know, 487 00:22:52,119 --> 00:22:55,800 Speaker 5: basis points three hundred fifty base points higher than Japanese yields. 488 00:22:55,800 --> 00:22:56,520 Speaker 6: I mean, these. 489 00:22:56,520 --> 00:23:01,080 Speaker 5: Investors controlled giant, you know, sometimes trillion dollar pools of capital, 490 00:23:01,359 --> 00:23:04,080 Speaker 5: and a lot of them, especially you know, pensions, insurance 491 00:23:04,119 --> 00:23:08,680 Speaker 5: and sovereign wealth funds and central banks. They buy fixed income, right, 492 00:23:08,760 --> 00:23:10,840 Speaker 5: And we are the world's bond market, and I think 493 00:23:10,880 --> 00:23:14,560 Speaker 5: a lot of people in the US forget that. And 494 00:23:14,640 --> 00:23:17,040 Speaker 5: you know, the dollar is still you know, the one 495 00:23:17,080 --> 00:23:20,159 Speaker 5: of the strongest currencies, and I think it's you know, 496 00:23:20,240 --> 00:23:23,800 Speaker 5: when push comes to shove, global investors will we'll look 497 00:23:23,840 --> 00:23:27,440 Speaker 5: to the US bond market for safety, and I think 498 00:23:27,640 --> 00:23:28,920 Speaker 5: that will continue to hold. 499 00:23:28,920 --> 00:23:29,120 Speaker 6: Truth. 500 00:23:29,119 --> 00:23:30,919 Speaker 2: Well, let's focus on that. Let's just get into it 501 00:23:31,000 --> 00:23:33,080 Speaker 2: just a little bit more. The buyers are still showing up. 502 00:23:33,119 --> 00:23:35,760 Speaker 2: Have you noticed any change in the background of the 503 00:23:35,760 --> 00:23:39,280 Speaker 2: buyers over the last twelve months. Is it becoming more domestic? 504 00:23:40,280 --> 00:23:43,560 Speaker 5: You know, a little bit on the margin, Jonathan, But 505 00:23:43,600 --> 00:23:47,560 Speaker 5: we're also seeing more and more interest now just recently 506 00:23:48,440 --> 00:23:52,119 Speaker 5: from from non US investors into the US bond market. 507 00:23:52,160 --> 00:23:52,320 Speaker 6: Right. 508 00:23:52,320 --> 00:23:55,640 Speaker 5: And remember it's not just our treasury yields and our 509 00:23:55,720 --> 00:23:59,480 Speaker 5: treasury auctions, because a lot of these folks aren't buying 510 00:23:59,600 --> 00:24:02,040 Speaker 5: just right. Yeah, And the auctions, it's a big deal. 511 00:24:02,119 --> 00:24:04,840 Speaker 5: You need a marginal buyer to step in. But we have, 512 00:24:04,960 --> 00:24:09,080 Speaker 5: you know the world's biggest, most liquid, diversified, regulated, attractive 513 00:24:09,160 --> 00:24:11,639 Speaker 5: credit markets, which you had a lot of yield and 514 00:24:11,680 --> 00:24:14,440 Speaker 5: spread on top of that, and that's where you really 515 00:24:14,440 --> 00:24:16,639 Speaker 5: see the demand. And that's one reason, to your point, Lisa, 516 00:24:16,800 --> 00:24:20,520 Speaker 5: why credit spreads continue to be pretty tight. I mean, 517 00:24:20,520 --> 00:24:23,080 Speaker 5: you have a lot of supply of treasuries, not a 518 00:24:23,080 --> 00:24:27,520 Speaker 5: lot of net supply of private sector debt, meaning corporate debt, 519 00:24:27,600 --> 00:24:31,960 Speaker 5: structured debt, mortgage debt, et cetera. So that could keep 520 00:24:32,000 --> 00:24:36,080 Speaker 5: those spreads relatively tight. But you know, on the auction size, yeah, 521 00:24:36,200 --> 00:24:38,879 Speaker 5: I mean, they're gigantic auctions, and you think at some 522 00:24:39,040 --> 00:24:41,399 Speaker 5: point there's going to be a failed auction, and we 523 00:24:41,440 --> 00:24:44,520 Speaker 5: always worry about that, Jonathan, but wow, we haven't seen 524 00:24:44,560 --> 00:24:47,560 Speaker 5: it yet. And there's no empirical evidence that supply of 525 00:24:47,640 --> 00:24:51,400 Speaker 5: treasuries in and of itself drives the level of interest rates. 526 00:24:51,440 --> 00:24:54,879 Speaker 5: That is driven by growth, by inflation, and by the 527 00:24:54,960 --> 00:24:56,119 Speaker 5: ultimate path of the funds. 528 00:24:56,160 --> 00:24:56,320 Speaker 4: Right. 529 00:24:56,359 --> 00:24:58,560 Speaker 5: That's been the case in my nearly forty year career, 530 00:24:58,800 --> 00:25:01,280 Speaker 5: and it'll probably be the keys for a waldote. 531 00:25:00,960 --> 00:25:01,639 Speaker 3: If it changes. 532 00:25:01,720 --> 00:25:03,760 Speaker 2: You're on the list of names we'll call first, Okay, 533 00:25:03,920 --> 00:25:16,520 Speaker 2: Michael Collins, A PJM. Mike, appreciate it were beginning that 534 00:25:16,600 --> 00:25:19,240 Speaker 2: top story stocks at all time highs following the lowest 535 00:25:19,240 --> 00:25:22,800 Speaker 2: inflation print in six months. Mana, Mahjana, Edward Jones right 536 00:25:22,840 --> 00:25:25,520 Speaker 2: in this if we see a Goldilocks calling of the economy, 537 00:25:25,840 --> 00:25:29,359 Speaker 2: markets may welcome this outcome. While this scenario continues to 538 00:25:29,400 --> 00:25:31,600 Speaker 2: be our base case, the tail risk is a more 539 00:25:31,720 --> 00:25:35,040 Speaker 2: rapid downturn that also leads to rate cuts, but for 540 00:25:35,080 --> 00:25:37,880 Speaker 2: the wrong reason. Mana joins us. Now for more matter, 541 00:25:37,960 --> 00:25:40,000 Speaker 2: If Walmart is doing well, what does it say about 542 00:25:40,040 --> 00:25:40,880 Speaker 2: a broader economy? 543 00:25:41,840 --> 00:25:43,200 Speaker 7: Yeah, you look, thanks Seana. 544 00:25:43,320 --> 00:25:45,440 Speaker 8: It does feel like it's consistent with the narrative we've 545 00:25:45,480 --> 00:25:48,360 Speaker 8: been getting over the last several days, which is, retail 546 00:25:48,359 --> 00:25:51,359 Speaker 8: sales have been cooler, the labor market looks to be moderating. 547 00:25:51,680 --> 00:25:54,760 Speaker 8: Perhaps more consumers are headed to Walmart to get that 548 00:25:54,840 --> 00:25:58,240 Speaker 8: better discount. It does feel like the consumer feels a 549 00:25:58,280 --> 00:26:00,760 Speaker 8: little bit stretched, but of course we're watching that lower 550 00:26:00,800 --> 00:26:04,480 Speaker 8: income consumer more so than the broader economy. Now, keep 551 00:26:04,480 --> 00:26:07,520 Speaker 8: in mind, both the labor market and the consumer started 552 00:26:07,560 --> 00:26:10,360 Speaker 8: from a position of strength. So when we think about cooling, 553 00:26:10,680 --> 00:26:14,159 Speaker 8: it's cooling from a very strong base. And so the 554 00:26:14,200 --> 00:26:16,800 Speaker 8: scenario that we laid out, what we call a Goldilocks 555 00:26:16,880 --> 00:26:19,680 Speaker 8: moderation of the economy, really means that the economy could 556 00:26:19,680 --> 00:26:22,879 Speaker 8: soften a bit, but we're still talking about at trend levels, 557 00:26:22,920 --> 00:26:26,560 Speaker 8: maybe slightly below trend levels. That kind of cooling also, 558 00:26:26,720 --> 00:26:29,119 Speaker 8: keep in mind, can lead to better inflation trends. So 559 00:26:29,160 --> 00:26:32,040 Speaker 8: if we are at the start of a bumpy ride 560 00:26:32,080 --> 00:26:35,080 Speaker 8: lower in inflation, a goal delocks cooling in the economy. 561 00:26:35,119 --> 00:26:37,399 Speaker 8: That's an environment that the market will welcome. What they 562 00:26:37,400 --> 00:26:39,960 Speaker 8: don't want to see is a more rapid decline, and 563 00:26:40,000 --> 00:26:41,000 Speaker 8: that's what we're on the lookout for. 564 00:26:41,080 --> 00:26:41,800 Speaker 7: We don't see it yet. 565 00:26:41,880 --> 00:26:43,239 Speaker 2: Well, what you're going through, and I think what you're 566 00:26:43,240 --> 00:26:45,280 Speaker 2: setting up is something we've discussed on this program for 567 00:26:45,280 --> 00:26:47,800 Speaker 2: a while, the difference between a welcome cooling and an 568 00:26:47,960 --> 00:26:51,120 Speaker 2: unwelcome deterioration. Can we turn to the labor market. What's 569 00:26:51,160 --> 00:26:54,159 Speaker 2: the labor market telling you versus say, what Corporate America 570 00:26:54,200 --> 00:26:54,719 Speaker 2: is telling you? 571 00:26:55,520 --> 00:26:57,359 Speaker 8: Yeah, you know, I think the labor market's an interesting 572 00:26:57,359 --> 00:26:59,280 Speaker 8: story here. Of course, you know, at three point eight 573 00:26:59,320 --> 00:27:02,879 Speaker 8: three point nine per unemployment rate still near multi decade lows, 574 00:27:02,920 --> 00:27:06,280 Speaker 8: so still relatively strong. But what we're seeing is better 575 00:27:06,359 --> 00:27:10,720 Speaker 8: supply and better demand, or a more balanced supply demand picture, 576 00:27:10,760 --> 00:27:12,400 Speaker 8: and I think the FED has highlighted this as well. 577 00:27:12,440 --> 00:27:15,679 Speaker 8: We are seeing on the supply side more workers returning 578 00:27:15,840 --> 00:27:18,720 Speaker 8: to the labor market, perhaps after that pandemic hiatus. We 579 00:27:18,760 --> 00:27:21,080 Speaker 8: also have the immigration story working in our favor from 580 00:27:21,119 --> 00:27:25,160 Speaker 8: the supply perspective, but we are also seeing job openings 581 00:27:25,280 --> 00:27:28,280 Speaker 8: move lower, so the demand for that labor is coming down, 582 00:27:28,600 --> 00:27:30,720 Speaker 8: the supply of that labor is moving higher. We think 583 00:27:30,800 --> 00:27:33,760 Speaker 8: that will lead to a nice cooling in the wage 584 00:27:33,760 --> 00:27:35,439 Speaker 8: gains figure, and that's what we really want to see. 585 00:27:35,320 --> 00:27:36,360 Speaker 3: For services inflation. 586 00:27:36,840 --> 00:27:39,280 Speaker 8: We'd say more broadly, also on the labor market, some 587 00:27:39,320 --> 00:27:42,359 Speaker 8: of those leading indicators not only job openings, but the 588 00:27:42,440 --> 00:27:45,399 Speaker 8: quits rates. Keep in mind, folks are not quitting their 589 00:27:45,480 --> 00:27:48,080 Speaker 8: jobs like they once were, perhaps because there's not as 590 00:27:48,080 --> 00:27:51,080 Speaker 8: many openings to go into after you quit your job, 591 00:27:51,200 --> 00:27:53,760 Speaker 8: but that tends to be a leading indicator for the 592 00:27:53,800 --> 00:27:54,639 Speaker 8: labor economy. 593 00:27:54,840 --> 00:27:56,359 Speaker 3: We could see an unemployment rate. 594 00:27:56,280 --> 00:27:59,320 Speaker 8: Tick higher, perhaps above four percent, but in our view, 595 00:27:59,400 --> 00:28:02,000 Speaker 8: that is still healthy and probably not getting much more 596 00:28:02,040 --> 00:28:02,520 Speaker 8: beyond that. 597 00:28:02,760 --> 00:28:04,159 Speaker 1: So dancing on the head of a pin of this 598 00:28:04,200 --> 00:28:06,639 Speaker 1: goldilocks type of situation that seems to be great for 599 00:28:06,680 --> 00:28:09,600 Speaker 1: stocks no matter what, regardless of how far we push 600 00:28:09,680 --> 00:28:12,240 Speaker 1: on either direction. What would trigger some sort of end 601 00:28:12,280 --> 00:28:14,960 Speaker 1: to this goldilocks that so far has been an absolute 602 00:28:14,960 --> 00:28:17,160 Speaker 1: panaceat of stocks and you see it continuing. 603 00:28:16,720 --> 00:28:19,439 Speaker 8: To be Yeah, you know, look, I think that's what 604 00:28:19,520 --> 00:28:21,520 Speaker 8: we are all thinking about. We had our first correction 605 00:28:21,600 --> 00:28:23,640 Speaker 8: earlier this year, was only about five and a half 606 00:28:23,640 --> 00:28:25,080 Speaker 8: percent page trough in the S and P. 607 00:28:25,200 --> 00:28:25,760 Speaker 3: Five hundred. 608 00:28:26,200 --> 00:28:28,520 Speaker 8: What we were really thinking about is what would lead 609 00:28:28,640 --> 00:28:32,399 Speaker 8: us to become for that correction to become more nefarious? 610 00:28:32,440 --> 00:28:34,760 Speaker 8: Would it ever turn into a bear market a twenty 611 00:28:34,800 --> 00:28:38,800 Speaker 8: percent plus decline? Historically, when we are in that environment, 612 00:28:38,840 --> 00:28:40,680 Speaker 8: when we are entering a bear market or in a 613 00:28:40,680 --> 00:28:43,440 Speaker 8: bear market, we tend to see a few factors in place. One, 614 00:28:43,840 --> 00:28:46,440 Speaker 8: the economy is usually hitting a recession. We may not 615 00:28:46,480 --> 00:28:48,840 Speaker 8: be in a yet or heading in that direction. Two, 616 00:28:49,120 --> 00:28:53,160 Speaker 8: the FED tends to be raising rates pretty aggressively. And 617 00:28:53,200 --> 00:28:55,920 Speaker 8: then three there's usually that unknown shock factor, which is 618 00:28:55,960 --> 00:28:58,080 Speaker 8: hardest to handicap. But I'd say when we think about 619 00:28:58,120 --> 00:29:01,640 Speaker 8: the first two, either recession or FED rates aggressively. That 620 00:29:01,680 --> 00:29:04,720 Speaker 8: doesn't seem like a likely scenario as we look forward, 621 00:29:04,800 --> 00:29:07,920 Speaker 8: So again, we don't expect that one five and a 622 00:29:07,920 --> 00:29:10,200 Speaker 8: half percent correction to be it this year. We are 623 00:29:10,200 --> 00:29:13,240 Speaker 8: headed towards an election season, et cetera. There could be 624 00:29:13,280 --> 00:29:16,120 Speaker 8: more volatility ahead. But as long as we feel comfortable 625 00:29:16,120 --> 00:29:20,360 Speaker 8: that that volatility doesn't turn into something deeper or more prolonged, 626 00:29:20,520 --> 00:29:23,400 Speaker 8: we think it's an interesting opportunity for investors more than anything. 627 00:29:23,520 --> 00:29:25,280 Speaker 1: In the meantime, a lot of people have been waiting 628 00:29:25,320 --> 00:29:26,280 Speaker 1: for that pivot. 629 00:29:25,920 --> 00:29:27,440 Speaker 7: Point to really start to broaden out. 630 00:29:27,480 --> 00:29:30,120 Speaker 1: We are seeing some broadening out in specific sectors, but 631 00:29:30,200 --> 00:29:33,240 Speaker 1: broadening out to small calfs and some of the value 632 00:29:33,320 --> 00:29:36,040 Speaker 1: names you see is really coming into play when we 633 00:29:36,160 --> 00:29:37,680 Speaker 1: actually see rate cuts. 634 00:29:37,760 --> 00:29:39,680 Speaker 7: Won't it be too late then, don't you kind of 635 00:29:39,720 --> 00:29:40,440 Speaker 7: have to get ahead of it. 636 00:29:41,440 --> 00:29:42,360 Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a good point. 637 00:29:42,400 --> 00:29:45,080 Speaker 8: And look, I think as we get opportunities along the way, 638 00:29:46,000 --> 00:29:48,440 Speaker 8: any of that volatility that we noted earlier, that is 639 00:29:48,480 --> 00:29:51,480 Speaker 8: a great opportunity to not only diversify, make sure you're 640 00:29:51,520 --> 00:29:56,720 Speaker 8: balanced in your growth value cyclical portfolio, but thinking about rebalancing, 641 00:29:56,840 --> 00:30:00,560 Speaker 8: thinking about adding those quality investments at better prices. We 642 00:30:00,600 --> 00:30:03,360 Speaker 8: do think one, as we get closer to FED rate cuts, 643 00:30:03,480 --> 00:30:06,560 Speaker 8: that will be a catalyst to unlock a more sustainable 644 00:30:06,560 --> 00:30:09,360 Speaker 8: broadening of market participation. But two, as we head to 645 00:30:09,400 --> 00:30:11,400 Speaker 8: the back half of the year, what we're seeing in 646 00:30:11,480 --> 00:30:15,840 Speaker 8: earnings growth is that earnings growth contribution becomes more balanced 647 00:30:15,880 --> 00:30:19,320 Speaker 8: between those growth tech sectors and those cyclical and value 648 00:30:19,320 --> 00:30:21,200 Speaker 8: parts of the market. You know, Q one and even Q 649 00:30:21,240 --> 00:30:24,800 Speaker 8: two to some extent really driven by tech Magnificent seven 650 00:30:25,440 --> 00:30:27,800 Speaker 8: outperforming on the earnings front. But as we get more 651 00:30:27,840 --> 00:30:30,840 Speaker 8: balanced on earnings, as we get closer to FED rate cuts, 652 00:30:30,880 --> 00:30:33,400 Speaker 8: and by the way, if inflation continues to moderate, that's 653 00:30:33,440 --> 00:30:36,880 Speaker 8: a good environment for a broadening of participation, not only 654 00:30:36,920 --> 00:30:41,600 Speaker 8: between growth and value and US equities perhaps international continuing 655 00:30:41,640 --> 00:30:44,800 Speaker 8: to play some meaningful catchup. And by the way, of course, 656 00:30:44,840 --> 00:30:46,640 Speaker 8: your bond portfolio is starting to look a lot more 657 00:30:46,640 --> 00:30:49,480 Speaker 8: interesting too. Mony you talk about the probability of September 658 00:30:49,600 --> 00:30:51,000 Speaker 8: rate cut was moved up higher. 659 00:30:51,000 --> 00:30:51,680 Speaker 3: But what do you make of. 660 00:30:51,640 --> 00:30:54,880 Speaker 8: Neil Koshkari yesterday basically saying we might need to stay here. 661 00:30:54,800 --> 00:30:55,400 Speaker 7: A lot longer. 662 00:30:56,680 --> 00:30:59,440 Speaker 8: Yeah, you know, we think higher for longer should be 663 00:30:59,520 --> 00:31:02,840 Speaker 8: the base case. And whether it's September December, even early 664 00:31:02,920 --> 00:31:07,040 Speaker 8: next year. The longer for longer term investors than the 665 00:31:07,120 --> 00:31:09,760 Speaker 8: narrative really is. The FED was embarking on not just 666 00:31:09,800 --> 00:31:12,280 Speaker 8: a twenty twenty four rate cutting cycle, was twenty twenty four, 667 00:31:12,400 --> 00:31:14,720 Speaker 8: twenty twenty five, twenty twenty six, so two to three 668 00:31:14,840 --> 00:31:17,719 Speaker 8: year rate cutting cycle to get them at least somewhat 669 00:31:17,720 --> 00:31:20,640 Speaker 8: closer to a neutral level. So we do think they 670 00:31:20,640 --> 00:31:23,479 Speaker 8: are on that path for a multi year rate cutting cycle. 671 00:31:23,760 --> 00:31:26,040 Speaker 8: They will need to see as a prerequisite to that, 672 00:31:26,080 --> 00:31:28,720 Speaker 8: as many of us have talked about, at least probably 673 00:31:28,760 --> 00:31:30,720 Speaker 8: two to three better inflation prints. Now we got a 674 00:31:30,720 --> 00:31:33,200 Speaker 8: good one this week. Hopefully that resets the clock and 675 00:31:33,240 --> 00:31:35,840 Speaker 8: we get a couple more in the months ahead. The 676 00:31:35,880 --> 00:31:37,720 Speaker 8: one thing I'll say is I do think it's interesting 677 00:31:38,000 --> 00:31:40,920 Speaker 8: the way the narrative is setting up for September, December, 678 00:31:40,960 --> 00:31:43,720 Speaker 8: and then March. So this quarterly pace of rate cuts 679 00:31:44,200 --> 00:31:46,000 Speaker 8: could be an interesting one for the Fed. At least 680 00:31:46,040 --> 00:31:48,520 Speaker 8: it takes a little bit of the uncertainty out of it, 681 00:31:48,520 --> 00:31:51,480 Speaker 8: makes it a little bit more systematic. If they can get 682 00:31:51,520 --> 00:31:53,840 Speaker 8: the data to fall into place, I think that could 683 00:31:53,840 --> 00:31:55,480 Speaker 8: be something they consider down the road as well. 684 00:31:55,560 --> 00:31:58,040 Speaker 2: I appreciate the reaction to the earnings from Wilmot and 685 00:31:58,120 --> 00:31:59,880 Speaker 2: a comment Schay on the fold of market mightamhitch on 686 00:31:59,920 --> 00:32:03,960 Speaker 2: that of Edwards Jones. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, 687 00:32:04,080 --> 00:32:07,640 Speaker 2: bringing you the best in markets, economics, a gio politics. 688 00:32:07,920 --> 00:32:10,400 Speaker 2: You can watch the show live on Bloomberg TV weekday 689 00:32:10,400 --> 00:32:13,640 Speaker 2: mornings from six am to nine am Eastern. Subscribe to 690 00:32:13,680 --> 00:32:16,920 Speaker 2: the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen, 691 00:32:17,160 --> 00:32:19,800 Speaker 2: and as always, on the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg 692 00:32:19,800 --> 00:32:20,400 Speaker 2: Business app.